[HN Gopher] Even the worst mass extinction had its oases
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       Even the worst mass extinction had its oases
        
       Author : Hooke
       Score  : 78 points
       Date   : 2025-03-19 05:21 UTC (2 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (arstechnica.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (arstechnica.com)
        
       | ZunarJ5 wrote:
       | The technical term, as mentioned in the article, is refugium:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugium_(population_biology).
       | Using the term oases is mildly irking, haha.
       | 
       | Though I have extreme reservations about the current state of
       | conservation science (on questions of nature and it's own
       | agency), this is precisely why conservation is extremely
       | important. We must protect what we have left to let nature adjust
       | to what we become and want to be:
       | https://eos.org/features/critical-zone-science-comes-of-age
       | 
       | Source: I work in palaeoecology.
        
       | jordanb wrote:
       | A while back I read a book called _Extinction_ by Douglas H.
       | Erwin. It was a history of the end-Permian event.
       | 
       | There were a few interesting takeaways:
       | 
       | 1) When people started realizing that these dieoffs happened
       | there was a belief that there was probably a common cause like
       | impactors, but end-Permian almost certainly wasn't an impactor
       | like K-T was. There are several things that can kick-off an
       | extinction
       | 
       | 2) One thing that is true is that the extinctions seem to follow
       | the same script. Lots of things can kick them off, but once they
       | start going it's a rock rolling down a hill very quicky. End-
       | Permian seems tied to the Siberian Traps basaltic eruption, but
       | that eruption had been going for thousands of years before the
       | dieoff started.
       | 
       | K-T definitely happened within years following the impact, but
       | end-Permian seemed to be a "first gradually, then suddenly" as
       | pollution from the traps put more and more stress on the
       | biosphere until suddenly...
       | 
       | 3) He posed the question: are we currently in an great
       | extinction. He wrote that we are not because they look at the
       | fossil record of really fundamental creatures (stuff like krill
       | in the ocean) upon which the whole biosphere relies, and we're
       | not yet seeing them collapse. But once such a collapse begins, it
       | will be something that is unstoppable.
       | 
       | 4) He thought that there is a big gap in our knowledge of
       | survival and recovery. Why have none of these massive events just
       | turned the planet into a dead world? How does life come back?
       | Historically the early-Triassic was seen as a really boring thing
       | to study because there's not much evidence of life in it, but
       | understanding how life soldiers on through these "wasteland
       | Earth" episodes is potentially a fertile ground for research.
        
         | ashoeafoot wrote:
         | Some total niche bacteria doing millenias of groundwork.
        
         | mapt wrote:
         | * End-Permian is associated with the Siberian Traps, but those
         | in turn are associated with the Wilkes Land Crater impactor,
         | which is antipodal to that event and may have seen antipodal
         | seismic focusing.
         | 
         | * "Going on for thousands of years" - Dating the End-Permian
         | has confidence intervals on the order of 30,000 years.
         | 
         | * Small size and diverse ecology almost guarantees survival of
         | life. There is life basically everywhere we look, down to
         | extremophiles living very slow lives in a random cubic meter of
         | "solid rock" two kilometers deep. We have even evolved several
         | chemical alternatives to photosynthesis as a primary energy
         | source. Mammals and small birds deep in a cave somewhere appear
         | to have been some of the only land vertebrates to survive K-T,
         | and radiated out from there. Evolution does the rest.
        
           | jordanb wrote:
           | > associated with the Wilkes Land Crater impactor
           | 
           | Erwin discusses that theory but doesn't agree with it.
           | 
           | In any case, 1) there are other mass dyings that are
           | definately not impactors like the oxygen crisis. 2) there are
           | other basaltic eruptions on the scale of the siberian traps
           | (like CAMP) where the cause is known and not an impactor.
        
           | blueflow wrote:
           | P-T is likely not due to the Wilkes Land crater, which would
           | be 2.5x the size of the K-Pg impact and would have left an
           | comparable amount (or more) of iridium in the boundary
           | sediments. There are elevated iridium levels in the P-T
           | boundaries, but only sporadically.
        
         | jujube3 wrote:
         | > End-Permian seems tied to the Siberian Traps basaltic
         | eruption,       > but that eruption had been going for
         | thousands of years before       > the dieoff started.
         | 
         | The eruptions probably hadn't been "going for thousands of
         | years." We can't "see" time periods as small as a few thousands
         | years from a vantage point of 250 million years later.
         | 
         | Biologists like to proclaim that things are gradual when
         | they're really more likely sudden. This often reflects
         | mathematical ignorance. For example, if the last specimin of a
         | certain rare fossil is found in a stratum slightly older than
         | the K-T stratum, does that mean it went extinct earlier than
         | the K-T event? Probably not; it just means the fossil is rare
         | so your sampling error is larger.
        
           | jordanb wrote:
           | I'm massively summarizing the book but he talks a lot about
           | the history of the timeline for end-Permian.
           | 
           | At the time of writing of the book it was "less than 60k
           | years" which seems like a long time, but when the extinction
           | was first discovered it was believed to be a very gradual
           | change taking place over 10 million years, turns out that it
           | was believed that end-Permian and end-Guadalupian were the
           | same event.
           | 
           | As isotope dating has gotten more and more accurate, the
           | length of time for end-Permian has gotten shorter and
           | shorter. There's also other evidence that it was a very
           | sudden event, evidence of fungal explosions for instance
           | during the event suggesting massive amounts of decomposition.
           | 
           | In any case, as I said the P-T took "no more than 60k years"
           | but the Siberian traps were erupting for at least 120k years
           | before, so there's at least 60k years unaccounted for between
           | the start of the eruptions and the start of the extinction.
        
         | js8 wrote:
         | > He thought that there is a big gap in our knowledge of
         | survival and recovery.
         | 
         | Well, you don't want to know how far you can safely bend over
         | the cliff before falling down. I think attempts to gain such
         | knowledge in a practical way should be explicitly banned.
        
           | jordanb wrote:
           | His point was people should be more interested in the early
           | Triassic.
        
         | Qem wrote:
         | >but end-Permian seemed to be a "first gradually, then
         | suddenly" as pollution from the traps put more and more stress
         | on the biosphere until suddenly...
         | 
         | AKA the Seneca effect. See
         | https://terebess.hu/keletkultinfo/seneca.pdf
        
         | pfdietz wrote:
         | I wonder if the P-T extinction was due not just to CO2 release
         | from the volcanism (and the other bad effects from the magma
         | intruding into the largest/oldest sedimentary basin in the
         | world), but also due to authigenic clay formation in the ocean.
         | 
         | When clay forms in the ocean, it pulls calcium out of seawater.
         | Calcium is normally balanced by two bicarbonate ions, so its
         | removal causes the bicarbonate to shift back to carbonic
         | acid/CO2. The ocean acidifies and CO2 is released. This has
         | been called "anti-weathering", since it's the opposite of the
         | normal process that draws down CO2 by weathering of silicates.
         | 
         | Sufficient injection of silicic acid and aluminum into the
         | ocean could accelerate this process.
        
       | morkalork wrote:
       | I love the retro cgi article image, it gives me fuzzy nostalgic
       | feelings for the 90s era of Myst, Reboot and The Mind's Eye.
        
         | mfro wrote:
         | The artist appears to be committed to the bit:
         | 
         | https://fineartamerica.com/profiles/corey-ford?tab=artwork
        
           | yobert wrote:
           | Yeah it reminds me of POV-Ray, in a fun way!
        
           | david422 wrote:
           | Ok I went looking through those paintings. That is an ... odd
           | account. AI? Not AI? Looks like mostly just screenshots from
           | some 90's computer games.
        
       | PaulKeeble wrote:
       | Life will survive what humans have done. When our numbers are
       | dropped substantially by many C's of climate change a lot of
       | wildlife will be able to repopulate and survive although much
       | wont because it will be too hot for correls and many other
       | species. We are taking many species with us every year at the
       | moment, its a mass extinction event, but even if we fire all our
       | nuclear weapons we wont wipe out all the land animals and fauna.
       | Its not just humans being put in jeopardy by what we are doing
       | but it ought to be enough to get off this maybe extinction path.
       | 
       | 1.5C done, Onwards to 2C, should hit it before 2030.
        
       | yieldcrv wrote:
       | > Scientists have debated whether this event caused nearly as
       | much terrestrial destruction.
       | 
       | Is this the right phrasing? I thought the whole planet was
       | terrestrial
       | 
       | Not a distinction between sea and land life
        
         | WaltPurvis wrote:
         | Using "terrestrial" to refer only to land-based life is proper,
         | i.e., it's a common and accepted definition of the word.
        
         | adrian_b wrote:
         | Latin "Terra" actually meant "dry", so it was the proper term
         | for dry lands, as opposed to seas and oceans. For instance,
         | "continent" is an abbreviation for "terra continens", i.e. dry
         | land that is contiguous. Spanish "tierra" and the cognate words
         | in the other Romance languages, which usually correspond to
         | English "land", have remained closer to the original meaning of
         | the word.
         | 
         | The entire planet was very seldom, if ever, referred as
         | "Terra". The correct Latin word for the entire planet was
         | "Tellus" (whence the adjective "telluric"), whose likely
         | meaning was "support" in the sense "the earth that supports us
         | on it".
        
       | didgetmaster wrote:
       | I have heard that scientists estimate at something like 99.9% of
       | all species that ever lived have ZERO evidence left in the fossil
       | record.
       | 
       | While I think that a great many things can be learned by studying
       | the relative few fossils discovered; making broad assumptions
       | about ecosystems based on limited evidence seems like a bit of a
       | stretch.
        
         | myflash13 wrote:
         | This is why "evolution" is just another creation myth. Of the
         | 0.01% evidence left in the fossil record, massive leaps of
         | faith are needed to construct a definite story with any
         | certainty. Darwin wrote about this as well.
        
           | goatlover wrote:
           | What is this anti-scientific comment doing on hacker news?
           | Evolution is a fact. It happened and it's still happening.
           | The exact way species evolved is theoretical based on
           | existing facts.
        
             | myflash13 wrote:
             | Here comes the clergy defending the orthodoxy. Dare to
             | challenge the dominant myth (logical arguments
             | nothwithstanding) and you'll be labeled.
        
               | tomrod wrote:
               | Make reddit style claims, get reddit style responses [0]
               | [1]
               | 
               | [0] https://imgflip.com/i/voggo
               | 
               | [1] https://tenor.com/view/watch-it-
               | gif-3524753964604521397
        
               | Loughla wrote:
               | I feel like the basis of your argument requires you to
               | very heavily misinterpret the word theory as being equal
               | to the word belief.
               | 
               | There's a reason those two things have different words
               | for them. You know that, right?
        
               | andrewflnr wrote:
               | Don't feed the troll. Especially don't feed them with
               | tricky semantic distinctions.
        
           | itishappy wrote:
           | That's 0.01% more evidence than competing theories, no?
        
             | tomrod wrote:
             | Nah, evolution is much more predictive than creation myths
             | -- to the point we've been able to cause speciation in labs
             | simulation conditions aligned to evolutionary theory.
             | Evolution isn't based solely on fossil records, and truth
             | be told Judeochristian creationism couldn't account for
             | extinction which the fossil record indicated. The 0.01%
             | evidence is just a biased sample, but even a biased sample
             | can be useful in context.
             | 
             | Remember -- a good theory fits the evidence, and a good
             | metaphysical framework allows adaption and update of truth
             | with new evidence.
        
               | itishappy wrote:
               | I think we agree. Regardless of the actual numbers, we
               | clearly have more evidence for evolution than anything
               | else.
        
           | nurettin wrote:
           | Genetic algorithms work, and you can observe evolution in
           | bacteria simply by exposing them to an acidic environment for
           | several generations, so what do you mean by creation myth?
        
           | daedrdev wrote:
           | We literally know how genes change which cause evolution can
           | do it ourselves, can measure how genes have changed between
           | different groups of people and compared to animals and
           | regularly evolve ecoli in real time for medical research
        
         | jordanb wrote:
         | Scientists are aware and account for that.
         | 
         | One way they do that is by focusing not on megafauna but on
         | creatures that exist in immense numbers in a biosphere like
         | insects or even smaller creatures. They also look at pollen and
         | other biological matter that gets spread evenly.
         | 
         | They can also look at the effects life has on the structure and
         | chemistry of earth. For instance, they know when oxygenation
         | happened because there are chemicals in older rocks that can
         | not form in the presence of oxygen, while there are chemicals
         | in younger rocks that can _only_ form in the presence of
         | oxygen.
         | 
         | A big evidence that the end-Permian effected land as much as
         | the ocean is the behavior of rivers. When plants are present,
         | rivers tend to meander because plant roots hold onto the river
         | banks. When plants are not present, the river is able to take
         | the shortest path to the ocean. Rivers banks laid down at the
         | end of the Permian meander, river banks laid down at the start
         | of the Triassic do not.
        
           | tomrod wrote:
           | > Rivers banks laid down at the end of the Permian meander,
           | river banks laid down at the start of the Triassic do not.
           | 
           | * subject to relative flatness
           | 
           | But what an interesting thought, I'd never considered how
           | river topography might indicate world conditions. So start of
           | Triassic really was a blow to life!
        
       | 1970-01-01 wrote:
       | This is also why some hypothesize that Mars may not be a dead
       | rock.
        
         | Loughla wrote:
         | It does stand to reason that if there was life on Mars there
         | might still be life on Mars. Everywhere we look on Earth, life
         | exists, even in extreme environments and independent of the
         | sun's energy.
         | 
         | I think the first alien we'll find will be an extremophile
         | bacteria or other microorganism.
        
           | andrewflnr wrote:
           | Almost certainly microorganism, but not necessarily
           | extremophile. It depends what you mean by "find". We might
           | "find" oxygen in an exoplanet atmosphere and go, "yay, they
           | have... algae?" :D
        
             | tomrod wrote:
             | That would be hugely important, actually.
             | 
             | With N=1, we know that life exists but not how common
             | different development might be. Algae on another planet
             | would suggest panspermia of common development pathways.
        
       | w0de0 wrote:
       | It seems to me that "refugia" would be more apposite word for
       | this phenomenon than "oases."
        
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