[HN Gopher] The race is on to build the most complex machine
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The race is on to build the most complex machine
Author : _tk_
Score : 80 points
Date : 2025-03-16 08:03 UTC (2 days ago)
(HTM) web link (www.economist.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.economist.com)
| tromp wrote:
| https://archive.is/vPdvM
| photonthug wrote:
| Oh man oh man, can we get some more pictures of crazy machines?
| Here's another https://www.extremetech.com/computing/report-
| intel-bought-al...
| madspindel wrote:
| https://youtu.be/h_zgURwr6nA
| on_the_train wrote:
| And even that official video is massively underplaying how
| fast these steppers (and in turn: all the mechanics around
| the mirrors) work. Look at this video at ~44:20 to get a
| better feeling
|
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh33GG7prfA
| zupa-hu wrote:
| ..and then he adds these movements need to have nanometer
| precision. WHAT?!
| paulirish wrote:
| A recent CCC talk covered the current state of EUV lithography
| (really well): https://youtu.be/NdppYYfQJgg?t=1393 This
| timecode has rendering of the ASML machine in action. (edit:
| the same one madspindel posted, oops! The rest of the talk def
| worth a watch)
| gizajob wrote:
| Brilliant talk thanks for suggesting.
| on_the_train wrote:
| Not one mention of Zeiss? Those mirrors are quite the story
| themselve. The light source also isn't actually being done by
| asml, it's trumpf
| kerblang wrote:
| The semiconductor supply chain is bonkers... would like to have
| a diagram of the whole thing, including the special quartz mine
| in NC
| zparky wrote:
| There's this site[1] which doesn't go into _that_ much depth
| but is still neat to explore
|
| [1] - https://chipexplorer.eto.tech/
| alexpotato wrote:
| This is both fascinating and an excellent way to show the
| "big picture" but also allow people to drill into the
| details.
| youngtaff wrote:
| There are other quartz mines that can produce the purity
| needed for the crucibles
| wg0 wrote:
| And that ASML is majority owned by Carl Zeis, a German company.
| on_the_train wrote:
| If anything it's the other way round. Asml owns 25% of Zeiss
| SMT. Source: I work there
| wg0 wrote:
| Yes - I'm wrong.
|
| https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Zeiss_SMT
| TacticalCoder wrote:
| And what about all the parts that Zeiss is using? That's
| basically Milton Friedman on how a pencil is made, but on
| steroids:
|
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67tHtpac5ws
| on_the_train wrote:
| Not really. A block of glass arrives at our facility. It
| undergoes a shitton of processing steps ( _much_ longer than
| you 'd think) with atomic-precision measurements between the
| steps. All of the high end tools are self-developed and self-
| built. The mirror at the end does not have much in common
| with the block of glass at the start.
| hikarudo wrote:
| Also see "I Pencil" by Leonard Read (1958).
| bob1029 wrote:
| > For NIL to become a mainstream chipmaking technology, it must
| overcome several challenges. Defects are a big concern--tiny
| particles or imperfections on the mould can create repeating
| flaws across entire wafers. Alignment is another hurdle. Since
| chips are built in layers, the circuit patterns of every layer
| must line up precisely.
|
| The one major advantage NIL has over optical techniques is that
| it does not require multiple patterning to address edge cases:
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_patterning
| IndrekR wrote:
| It is funny how "the race is on" when we have ASML/ZEISS monopoly
| in this sector.
| jimnotgym wrote:
| > To prevent China from building whizzy AI chips, America has
| barred ASML from selling its most advanced gear to Chinese
| chipmakers.
|
| Isn't that the craziest thing? America can prevent the
| Netherlands selling goods to China. Isolationist America? What
| did they threaten the Netherlands with, I wonder?
| stevenwoo wrote:
| It's part of the license agreement ASML signed to commercialize
| ultra violet lithography since the idea originated in Lawrence
| Livermore Labs research.
| mytailorisrich wrote:
| Sure but even without this if the US told the Netherlands to
| jump they would. The US have a huge influence over the
| Netherlands economically, politically, and militarily (their
| airforce is a US hardware showroom, basically, which also
| highlights the political influence).
|
| Just the fact that some tech comes for Lawrence Livermore
| Labs shows that relations are "tight".
| JumpCrisscross wrote:
| > _US have a huge influence over the Netherlands
| economically, politically, and militarily_
|
| It's important to remember that this influence is a product
| of goodwill. (Wouldn't have thought I'd have to mention
| this a year ago...)
|
| The Dutch are beginning to decouple from America [1]
| because despite those economic and military ties, if it
| isn't supported politically and culturally, it's difficult
| to project.
|
| [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43401487
| fancyfredbot wrote:
| If you do business in the US as ASML does then it's a good
| idea to comply with sanctions. Otherwise they'll sanction you
| too.
|
| Would be interesting to see how that would work out for ASML
| specifically since US obviously wants their products. But I
| think it would be catastrophic for both sides if the US
| sanctioned ASML. Less catastrophic for ASML to comply.
|
| The US has successfully fined many EU companies for OFAC
| violations, for example. This is especially ridiculous
| because the EU actually required European companies NOT to
| comply with US sanctions on Iran.
|
| (Note that I don't think this specific restriction on selling
| fab equipment to comes comes from OFAC)
| throwaway5752 wrote:
| _If you do business in the US as ASML does then it 's a
| good idea to comply with sanctions. Otherwise they'll
| sanction you too._
|
| It only works until it does not, and it works less well if
| one does not abuse it. Maybe this administration will just
| make it more profitable and safer to ally with China at
| this rate. A number of countries will be making this
| decision in the next four years, and Americans very well
| may be disappointed.
| JumpCrisscross wrote:
| For what it's worth, Trump isn't unique in being
| sanctions happy. His drug of choice is tariffs, and those
| are more simply statutorily remedied by making IEEPA [1]
| actions subject to (a) a mandatory delay and (b) the CRA
| [2].
|
| [1] https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45618
|
| [2]
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Review_Act
| tonyhart7 wrote:
| "safer to ally with China at this rate"
|
| until china decide to conquer you
| politically,economically etc, well its same with US
| honestly but US atleast have functional democracy
| groby_b wrote:
| I think you underestimate how much the US has severed
| bridges in the last two months.
| tonyhart7 wrote:
| Trump literally want the war to end unlike previous
| administration where the objective is fight to the last
| ukrainian
| TeMPOraL wrote:
| > _What did they threaten the Netherlands with, I wonder?_
|
| Explicitly? Probably nothing.
|
| Implicitly? Nukes.
|
| That's where the buck stops in geopolitics.
|
| Ultimately, all international interaction is backed by implicit
| threat of war - and, for past couple decades, nukes are the
| trump card. The world is divided between the "haves", and the
| "have nots", and the "have nots" can't do anything if the
| "haves" put the nuclear option onto the table.
|
| Of course, in polite company, nothing ever gets to that stage;
| the jobs of the leaders, diplomats, advisers, etc. is to keep
| everything low-key enough to not escalate beyond horse trading
| and strongly-worded letters. But everyone is acutely aware that
| the threat of violence is implicitly always there, and who can
| credibly threaten whom.
| Qiu_Zhanxuan wrote:
| the Netherlands (and most of the European countries) has the
| skills to build nukes and ICBM in 6 months if it wanted to.
| The tech is 80 years old at this point.
| dcl wrote:
| 6 months?
| JumpCrisscross wrote:
| > _the Netherlands (and most of the European countries) has
| the skills to build nukes and ICBM in 6 months if it wanted
| to_
|
| Eh, probably not. The Dutch have a serious nuclear power
| economy [1]. But procuring and refining the uranium would
| take at least a year. Their larger strategic deficit in
| long-range missile production (or a civil launch industry).
|
| [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_Neth
| erlan...
| saulpw wrote:
| Let me draw your attention to "Tacit Knowledge, Weapons
| Design, and the Uninvention of Nuclear Weapons" (1995)[0].
| Basically, it takes a nation state 4 years to develop its
| first nuclear weapon, and no amount of explicit knowledge-
| sharing speeds up the process. The only thing that speeds
| up the process is sharing tacit knowledge by embedding a
| nuclear scientist who has already been through the process.
|
| [0] https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1018881.pdf
| TeMPOraL wrote:
| They'd more likely get sanctioned to death or invaded if
| they tried. Have you noticed what happens to "have nots"
| that try (or are accused of trying) to become the "haves"
| in the nuclear game?
|
| Also, like 'JumpCrisscross notices, weapons themselves are
| but half of the equation - the other one is delivery. A few
| nukes and a trigger-happy dictator can get everyone to back
| away and indulge you some (see: North Korea), but to play
| at the big table, you need to have the capacity to deal a
| serious blow to another country (see: lesser nuclear
| powers) - but no one will let you get to that point.
| Nuclear-capable countries are not particularly keen on
| there being more of them.
| gizajob wrote:
| Haha what a crackers comment. Threatening to nuke the
| Netherlands if ASML sells a lithography machine to China,
| what are you smoking. The Dutch would probably blow up the
| ASML factory and short the entire stock market the day before
| if that sabre was even rattled. Bye bye tech.
| TeMPOraL wrote:
| Nothing in society operates in a vacuum. The ASML/China
| issue doesn't exist in isolation. Obviously, there are
| plenty of levers to pull elsewhere in trade and policy, and
| many things more important to either side than the ASML
| issue.
|
| As for the nukes, I invite you to imagine a hypothetical:
| what if Netherlands really, _really_ wanted to sell a
| lithography machine to China, for whatever reason (say an
| ancient prophecy compelling them to), and the US really,
| _really_ wanted for that not to happen (again, prophecy of
| something). Try to imagine how those negotiations would go
| - step through them, like you would a loop in the debugger,
| and tell me where you believe it stops.
| gizajob wrote:
| It stops at whatever trip you're on invoking nukes and
| ancient Dutch-Sino prophecies.
| JumpCrisscross wrote:
| > _America can prevent the Netherlands selling goods to China_
|
| EUV lithography was jointly developed by the U.S. and the
| Netherlands [1][2][3].
|
| [1] https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-ok-to-asml-on-euv-effort/
|
| [2] https://www.llnl.gov/article/27641/euvl-partnership-makes-
| it...
|
| [3] https://www.asml.com/en/news/stories/2022/making-euv-lab-
| to-...
| tonyhart7 wrote:
| Yes because ASML use American technology, same like You cant
| produce disney character without breaking the law despite you
| can perfectly recreated it
| gizajob wrote:
| Good luck cloning that machine.
| elorant wrote:
| EUV lithography machines are borderline science fiction. I mean
| if you look at all the steps included it's mind boggling.
| Shooting tiny droplets of tin with two lasers at a speed of 50k
| times/second, harvesting uv light through atomic precision
| mirrors, moving wafers with nanometer precision and all that in
| perfect vacuum. You watch the video demos and seems like you're
| watching a sf movie.
| tonyhart7 wrote:
| that's just laser with mirror machine that beep really fast
| carabiner wrote:
| Could this fail in some way and cause a resonance cascade?
| sadhorse wrote:
| Not if we follow strict operating procedures, Gordon.
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