[HN Gopher] Why do transit agencies keep falling for the hydroge...
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       Why do transit agencies keep falling for the hydrogen bus myth?
        
       Author : guerby
       Score  : 84 points
       Date   : 2025-03-14 15:03 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (cleantechnica.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (cleantechnica.com)
        
       | guerby wrote:
       | Linked also an interesting read :
       | https://cleantechnica.com/2024/12/22/heat-pumps-for-electric...
        
       | anenefan wrote:
       | I have flagged for the 403 - Forbidden - at a site level.
        
       | ZeroGravitas wrote:
       | The obvious answer is that government incentives and policies are
       | corrupted by fossil fuel interests.
       | 
       | The article only makes this claim via a link to another article:
       | 
       | > the Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium
       | (CUTRIC), is riddled with conflicts of interest and bias toward
       | hydrogen.
       | 
       | In which they reveal gas pipeline companies and fuel cell
       | manufacturers are members of that org and on its board.
        
         | giantrobot wrote:
         | The mechanism through which fossil fuel interests work is "grey
         | hydrogen" which is hydrogen produced through processing of
         | fossil sources with no eye towards carbon capture. Grey
         | hydrogen is as polluting as just burning the fossil feedstock
         | but works with an established hydrogen infrastructure.
         | 
         | This lets the producers "green wash" their production pipeline
         | by stating in a lies-through-omission manner that their
         | hydrogen is "clean burning". See no carbon out of the tailpipe!
         | It's clean! It's the same lie as EVs claiming to be "green" in
         | places where fossil fuel sources dominate electricity
         | production. It's just moving the tailpipe somewhere else rather
         | than eliminating it entirely.
         | 
         | There's also "blue" hydrogen that's manufactured with fossil
         | fuels but claims/intends to capture the carbon produced in the
         | process. It can still feed into a hydrogen infrastructure so
         | fossil fuel companies love it due to the same greenwashing.
         | 
         | The only carbon neutral hydrogen is "green" hydrogen which uses
         | a renewable source and electrolysis of water to generate
         | hydrogen. But even that is wildly less efficient on net than
         | just using renewables to charge battery EVs. Electrons are far
         | easier to move long distances than hydrogen or hydrogen
         | feedstocks (including water).
        
           | kaibee wrote:
           | > It's the same lie as EVs claiming to be "green" in places
           | where fossil fuel sources dominate electricity production.
           | 
           | This is just anti-ev propaganda.
           | 
           | First, its kind of a chicken-egg situation:
           | 
           | 'its not worth going green for the power grid, all the cars
           | are still ICE' 'oh its not worth building EV cars, the power
           | grid is dirty anyway'.
           | 
           | Second, there are lifecycle analyses that show that even if
           | your powergrid is entirely fossil fuels, EVs are still a win.
           | This is because powerplants are really efficient in ways that
           | a car engine can't be because of scale/weight. iirc the only
           | exception was if your power-grid was still like 50%+ coal?
        
             | AnthonyMouse wrote:
             | Not only that, it's completely the opposite: One of the
             | biggest impediments to adding more renewables to the grid
             | is aligning generation with load. EVs are rolling energy
             | storage devices. Put EV chargers in workplaces with a
             | setting that says "just make sure the battery has at least
             | 100 miles of charge by quitting time" and you get a full
             | 300 mile charge from 100% renewable energy whenever it's
             | available, still enough to come back tomorrow if it's
             | cloudy today, and a discount for using the charger where
             | that's what happens.
             | 
             | Then you not only charge the EVs from entirely renewable
             | generation, most of them can curtail their load for about a
             | week because typical EVs have around seven times the
             | average commute in total range, and then when renewable
             | generation is at 25% of normal, the capacity added to
             | charge EVs can be directed to less flexible loads because
             | the demand from EVs can be easily delayed for the right
             | price.
             | 
             | Their existence is what makes a grid with a higher
             | percentage of renewables even work.
        
       | genev wrote:
       | Sadly my town of Santa Cruz is going through this right now:
       | https://lookout.co/carmageddon-when-will-santa-cruz-metros-n...
        
       | rsynnott wrote:
       | Huh. I kind of thought that batteries had comprehensively won in
       | this market, tbh.
       | 
       | I still can't quite get used to the electric buses. A 20 tonne
       | double-decker bus should sound like it might explode at any
       | moment; it is unnatural for them to move around more or less
       | silently.
        
         | bombcar wrote:
         | Batteries have won this so hard (if you ignore CNG busses,
         | which have existed forever and are "almost as good as hydrogen
         | could be") - because even when they hadn't won it, you just
         | needed more busses.
         | 
         | Is it _nice_ if the bus can do a driver 's entire shift without
         | a recharge? Sure! But if it can't, you just design the route so
         | that the driver can switch busses and buy another bus. That
         | means the technology problem is now a money problem.
         | 
         | Busses are also already quite heavy, so battery weight doesn't
         | affect them as much as it might in a small car.
        
           | rsynnott wrote:
           | > But if it can't, you just design the route so that the
           | driver can switch busses and buy another bus
           | 
           | Oof, that's a huge 'just' in many cases.
           | 
           | That said, current electric buses have sufficient range that
           | this mostly isn't an issue. The unnervingly silent double-
           | deckers I mention have a claimed range of 320km, which, at
           | least here, is sufficient.
           | 
           | The big problem with Dublin's electric buses, ridiculously,
           | was that the operator was late in applying for planning
           | permission for the substations required to charge them. With
           | the result that for about a year, there were about a hundred
           | of them stored and unusable.
        
             | bobthepanda wrote:
             | This depends a lot on local climate and topography.
             | 
             | Seattle has kind of been a bust with them because the hills
             | really reduce the amount of charge, and on top of that the
             | existing bus depots are already full, so switching to
             | electric only would mean having to find and locate space
             | for more bus depots, which is quite difficult.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | Seattle also has (or had) trolley busses which fixed that
               | problem.
               | 
               | Everything is cost, it's all cost, not the ability to
               | actually solve the problem.
        
               | KeplerBoy wrote:
               | I wonder if trolley busses will make a great comeback
               | now. Seems so obvious to just put the overhead lines near
               | a few central bus hubs, so buses can recharge during the
               | shift.
        
               | adrian_b wrote:
               | Hills should never reduce the range, because the energy
               | lost during climbing up is recovered when going downhill.
               | 
               | This is one of the great advantages of electric vehicles
               | with batteries, when properly designed.
               | 
               | Electric buses with batteries are even more suitable for
               | cities with hills than for cities without hills, because
               | they provide greater energy savings over buses with ICEs.
               | 
               | While I have never used buses with batteries, I have
               | lived in cities with electric trolley buses. Even with
               | the primitive technology of many decades ago, they were
               | doing great in cities with hills, recovering most of the
               | energy when going downhill, unlike the buses with ICEs,
               | which had excessive fuel consumption because of the
               | hills.
        
               | datadrivenangel wrote:
               | Regenerative breaking is not perfectly efficient, so you
               | may loose a significant portion of the additional energy
               | needed. Better EV systems are what, 70-80% efficient on
               | the breaking efficiency?
        
               | kittoes wrote:
               | Sure, but you lose 100% in the case of combustion...
        
               | thfuran wrote:
               | Okay, but gasoline is far more energy dense than
               | batteries and a gas tank is a whole lot cheaper than a
               | battery pack, so vehicles can have a gas tank big enough
               | that that doesn't cause range problems. I don't know
               | about buses, but you can buy a pickup with a 48 gallon
               | tank. Even after assuming only about 1/3 efficiency,
               | that's still equivalent to some 500 KWhr, which is
               | several times more than any consumer EV I'm aware of.
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | That's efficiency, not range. Suppose hilly terrain
               | reduces range by a third for electric vehicles and half
               | for diesel. The diesel bus just fills up twice as often.
               | The electric bus needs a 50% bigger battery in order to
               | finish the same route without stopping to charge, and
               | then it becomes 70% because it has to lug the bigger
               | battery up the hills.
               | 
               | You can just... do that, but that doesn't mean it's not a
               | thing you have to do, and it's not free.
        
               | adrian_b wrote:
               | It is impossible for a hilly terrain to reduce the range
               | by a third for well-designed electric buses.
               | 
               | The efficiency of regenerative braking increases with the
               | power of the vehicle. The electric efficiency should be
               | well over 90%, perhaps even 95%. The mechanical losses
               | will lower the total efficiency to much smaller values,
               | but even so, the total efficiency should be over 80%.
               | 
               | A bus with an ICE will consume 5 times more extra energy
               | for climbing the hill and it will also consume energy
               | while going downhill.
               | 
               | Values like a 50% greater battery are unrealistic, and a
               | heavier battery adds much less to the consumption than by
               | how much it is heavier, even when going up the hill
               | (because most of the extra energy consumption is also
               | recovered).
               | 
               | In a certain city, it may happen that the bus routes are
               | so long that batteries are not competitive with ICEs, at
               | least for now. However, the presence of hills in any city
               | can only make electric buses more advantageous, not less
               | advantageous, due to much greater cost savings for fuel
               | and maintenance. Buses with ICEs that are operated on
               | hilly routes also need extra maintenance, besides
               | increased fuel costs. Well-designed electric buses do not
               | care whether they are operated in conditions requiring
               | higher torque.
               | 
               | Like I have said, I have lived in cities with hills and
               | with electric trolley buses and there was no doubt that
               | the trolley buses were superior to buses with ICEs
               | exactly on the routes that were going up and down over
               | hills.
        
               | mike-the-mikado wrote:
               | If the passengers all ride up hill and walk down hill?
        
               | smolder wrote:
               | Approximately 100% but not exactly, given that engine
               | braking downhill drives the accessories without any fuel.
               | (Alternator, aircon, pumps, etc.)
        
               | bolognafairy wrote:
               | Do you know which conversation you're replying to?
               | 
               | The original point was: hills do not matter, because what
               | goes up must come down, and regen will get all the energy
               | back.
               | 
               | This is categorically untrue, at the very least because
               | regen doesn't capture at 100% efficiency. It being "more
               | than ICE" doesn't mean anything.
        
               | smolder wrote:
               | Regenerative braking is nice but as sibling pointed out
               | it doesn't nearly recapture everything. Another factor is
               | that the additional load whether accelerating up a hill
               | or braking down one puts more current through the system.
               | In fact nearly every part of the drivetrain will
               | experience accelerated wear under those conditions,
               | mechanical or electrical. Cooling systems, too. Properly
               | spec'd, it's of course very doable, but it's true hilly
               | terrain is more difficult.
        
               | bolognafairy wrote:
               | This is a weird multi-paragraph evangelical lecture
               | seeing as any EV owner that's driven in a hilly climate
               | will tell you that this isn't how things work.
               | 
               | Regen isn't 100% efficient, for starters.
        
               | bobthepanda wrote:
               | The problem is that the hills in Seattle are quite large,
               | so you are going up for a long period of time and
               | possibly not able to regenerate before you run out of
               | batteries.
               | 
               | The other problem is that because battery weight is so
               | large, that in itself becomes a limiting factor for hilly
               | operation where it is not really relevant for
               | trolleybuses. And trolleybuses can feed current from
               | uphill buses to downhill buses through the wires, but
               | there's no such connection on battery buses.
        
               | nindalf wrote:
               | My grandparents live near those hills. The funny thing
               | is, they're uphill both ways.
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | I think it depends more on the regulatory climate.
        
           | ZeroGravitas wrote:
           | The stop-start nature of city busses makes them a real low
           | hanging fruit for battery electrification, benefiting from
           | instant torque to start and regen to stop and, as you say,
           | fixed known routes within larger fleets.
           | 
           | The only nation that seems to have capitalised on this basic
           | fact is China which bootstrapped its EV industry on busses,
           | pulling ahead from 2010 and hitting 90% of global market
           | share for EV busses in 2020, and now a big exporter.
        
             | busthrowaway23 wrote:
             | (At least in King County Metro) the newer diesel-electric
             | buses are series hybrids that use electric motors for
             | traction, and diesel generators to power a small battery.
             | So the low hanging fruit of electric traction was already
             | "picked". You can look up the bus model online - New Flyer
             | XDE class
        
             | AnthonyMouse wrote:
             | For the same reason the electric mail trucks are a good
             | idea. You can probably expect UPS and FedEx to start
             | replacing their fleets over time as the existing vehicles
             | age out, now that all electric vans are starting to become
             | available.
        
           | xattt wrote:
           | CNG buses were about a 10-year experiment in Toronto. There
           | were a number of bus terminals where CNG vehicles were
           | prohibited, either due to clearance or because of the
           | associated explosion risk.
           | 
           | A second batch of buses were converted to diesel so that the
           | fuelling station could be decommissioned.
        
           | abdullahkhalids wrote:
           | Many bus routes have a 5-10ish min break at some point
           | (usually the main station) in the route. If you can utilize
           | those ten minutes to do a top-up, you can go a lot further on
           | the same sized battery.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | No bus route should be more than 15 minutes between full
             | and empty. That is you start at some station, go 15
             | minutes, then turn around and go back. There are many
             | systems that attempt to do more, but there is no point:
             | people have places to be: on the bus is not on that list.
             | That 15 minutes means an average of 7 minutes, now they
             | walk to some other express bus that gets them nonstop (at
             | faster speeds) to someplace, but you still only get 15
             | minutes to get there before it isn't worth the bother, than
             | 7 more minutes on some other bus. Add in 5 more minutes of
             | walking time (and transfer time!) and we are at 45 minutes
             | - this is unreasonably long for normal trips already, but
             | it is the best you can do!.
             | 
             | In short there are plenty of places to switch buses if you
             | need to.
        
               | thfuran wrote:
               | Is there any bus route anywhere that never goes more than
               | 15 minutes from the depot?
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Not that I know of - but there shouldn't be.
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | How do you get somewhere which is 20 minutes from the
               | depot, or in general between any two points that are more
               | than 15 minutes apart?
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | You put in a different depot for the 20 minute trip. With
               | express buses the trip between the two depots may only be
               | 5 minutes.
               | 
               | People through history have always considered about half
               | an hour a reasonable daily commute. Doesn't matter if it
               | is a hunter-gatherer going to their gathering grounds (if
               | they follow herds they will move camp if the herd moves
               | more than half an hour), or "modern man" going to the
               | office, half an hour is what you get. Everything I said
               | is based on making as many of those half hour trips
               | possible as I can - but not all trips can be done that
               | way and some locations will be left out.
        
               | bolognafairy wrote:
               | Sorry, but, what the hell? This is Hacker News at its
               | finest: completely talking out of its ass.
               | 
               | This isn't how bus routes work, and this isn't how people
               | ride busses, on most if not all of the...many PT systems
               | I've used in multiple states / countries.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | There is a reason people complain about buses and prefer
               | to drive in so many cases. Operators try to compromise on
               | cheap and end up with service for those who after 5 DWIs
               | can't get their friends to drive them anymore.
        
               | busthrowaway23 wrote:
               | This is highly regional - any major city with a decent
               | transit system will have excellent bus routes in dense
               | areas. Also, "operators" usually means bus drivers, not
               | transit agencies
        
               | abdullahkhalids wrote:
               | There are two critical aspects to the bus routing
               | problem. One is that no matter how well you design your
               | system, there is always variance in the arrival times of
               | a bus at any given stop. If you expect people to switch
               | buses, then you need to account for this variance, and
               | this means adding buffers. Nothing makes people stop
               | using buses faster than missing your connection because
               | your bus was late.
               | 
               | The other aspect is the what city topology you are
               | dealing with. In square grid cities, you can probably put
               | a tram on every road, and with one switch over, get to
               | where ever you need to get to.
               | 
               | But many organically grown cities end up using the hub-
               | and-spoke model, where there are main stations where many
               | different buses meet. People switch over to the next
               | connection (and you need a buffer here). Critically, you
               | need all the buses to meet at roughly the same clock
               | time, say every 30 min. Now, one thing you realize
               | immediately is that not all routes are equal. One route
               | might be only 25 min, Either you make it longer and waste
               | fuel, and time for everyone sitting on the bus, or you
               | wait an extra 5 min at the main station.
               | 
               | Bus scheduling is very difficult problem in real cities
               | with weird topologies and real traffic issues. Buffers
               | are a necessary part of any reasonable solution.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | I'm coming from a different perspective: regardless of
               | all else (all those issues you raised are very real),
               | people need to get where they are going in a reasonable
               | amount of time. Most bus service fails to account for
               | that, but if you can't get people there in a reasonable
               | amount of time there is no point in trying.
        
               | abdullahkhalids wrote:
               | I agree that a system that does not deliver is going to
               | fail. Transit systems can have improved scheduling in two
               | ways:
               | 
               | (1) Better scheduling system. My opinion is that most
               | real world systems are not too far away from the optimal
               | trade-off curves. There is always room for improvements,
               | or choosing better trade-offs, but it will rarely
               | drastically improve things.
               | 
               | (2) More ridership: Most problems with speed just
               | disappear if more people ride. For example, you do need a
               | solid buffer when buses come every 30 min or more. But
               | buses that come every 10 min or less, you can get rid of
               | all buffer. A lot of scheduling problems are just not-
               | enough-users problem.
        
               | busthrowaway23 wrote:
               | Am I misunderstanding you about the 15 minutes interval?
               | 
               | Every workday I take a one-seat King County Metro bus
               | ride that lasts about 1 hr. The bus starts at a layover
               | facility and ends at a different layover facility.
               | 
               | I don't see how this 15 minute interval maps to my actual
               | commute?
        
           | zizee wrote:
           | > That means the technology problem is now a money problem.
           | 
           | This is such an odd insight. Most problems in the world can
           | be described as a "money problem", and it's usually the
           | problem that problem solvers are pushing up against.
        
         | PaulHoule wrote:
         | In Tompkins County we were early adopters of the electric bus,
         | at least for the American market. We bought them from a startup
         | which had trouble with the structural aspects and eventually
         | they fell apart
         | 
         | https://www.ithaca.com/news/ithaca/tcat-pulls-all-electric-b...
         | 
         | Established bus manufacturers make good electric buses now but
         | we don't have the money to buy replacements.
        
           | ttttannenbaum wrote:
           | Five months before the company filed for bankruptcy,
           | Proterra's CEO was appointed to the President's Export
           | Council (PEC), "the principal national advisory committee on
           | international trade."
        
           | Tijdreiziger wrote:
           | > 451: Unavailable due to legal reasons
           | 
           | > We recognize you are attempting to access this website from
           | a country belonging to the European Economic Area (EEA)
           | including the EU which enforces the General Data Protection
           | Regulation (GDPR) and therefore access cannot be granted at
           | this time.
        
         | jrussino wrote:
         | > A 20 tonne double-decker bus should sound like it might
         | explode at any moment
         | 
         | I hope you're using "should" as in "that's what I'm accustomed
         | to" rather than "that's how it ought to be"... right? :-D
         | 
         | Personally I feel like quieting buses would be a huge step
         | toward making day-to-day city life more pleasant.
        
       | jpm_sd wrote:
       | Transit agencies don't have the technical expertise to
       | distinguish truth from lies in cleantech marketing. They aren't
       | the only ones, see the over-inflated valuations of both Nikola
       | and Tesla as two (very different) stories of companies
       | successfully lying to investors and the general public about the
       | magical capabilities of their novel transportation platforms.
        
       | WalterBright wrote:
       | The electric airplane is another myth. There is no known battery
       | technology, or one on the horizon, that can provide a large
       | enough power/weight to make them practical.
       | 
       | The investors are getting bilked.
        
         | titzer wrote:
         | > to make them practical.
         | 
         | ..practical to replace commercial airliners, sure. There have
         | been plenty of slow electric planes.
         | 
         | In the future, net-zero air travel can only be done by
         | producing jet fuel in a carbon neutral way.
        
         | myself248 wrote:
         | They're great for trainers. Short hops with immediate control,
         | low maintenance and operating cost, and you can save the
         | magneto/ignition/etc workload for a different lesson series.
        
           | WalterBright wrote:
           | I can see that. Although managing the engine is a major part
           | of learning to fly.
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | So, make electric airplanes the initial license, reduce the
             | amount of hours to get it, and have an entire course on
             | monomotors before pilots can deal with combustion
             | airplanes.
        
         | thijson wrote:
         | I thought they might make sense for trainer aircraft that
         | flight schools would use.
        
           | thijson wrote:
           | Also saw this:
           | 
           | https://harbourair.com/going-electric/?tab=Specification
        
         | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
         | They use electric seaplanes at Harbour Air for regional flights
         | across the Georgia Strait between Vancouver, Seattle, and
         | Victoria. Electric makes a lot of sense for short-range
         | flights.
        
           | cgh wrote:
           | No, the eBeaver has never flown a commercial flight. Harbour
           | Air is aiming for certification in 2026. Additionally, it
           | only holds four passengers and is more a proof of concept
           | than anything else. It is a cool effort but battery
           | technology needs to come a long way first.
        
             | univacky wrote:
             | Firstly: I'm a fan of Harbour Air's work and their
             | electrification. Have flown that airline.
             | 
             | Retrofitting electrical flight to a 1950s airframe will be,
             | in the long run, not a great use of the technology.
             | 
             | Those planes were designed around having a single heavy
             | powerplant up front driving the propeller, and fuel largely
             | distributed along the center of gravity (in the wings) so
             | as not to adversely alter flight characteristics over the
             | trip. The electrified Beaver stores its batteries in the
             | fuselage; of course there is no change in mass/CG over the
             | flight with electric, but all that fuel tank space in the
             | wings is going to waste. The fact that these are
             | floatplanes make charging/battery replacement tasks at the
             | dock challenging and restrict options.
             | 
             | A clean sheet design, with multiple distributed smaller
             | motors and more options for battery placement, will be a
             | significant improvement.
             | 
             | https://harbourair.com/going-electric/?tab=Specification
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Storing the weight in the wings significantly reduces the
               | stress in the wings over storing it in the fuselage.
               | 
               | Makes me wonder about their design tradeoffs.
        
         | gorgoiler wrote:
         | Silly idea, but if the power is needed for takeoff then the
         | aircraft could be plugged in with a cable up until it reaches
         | cruising altitude.
         | 
         | It sounds ridiculous but I've been in aircraft that take off
         | while attached to a cable thousands of feet in length -- a
         | winch launched glider!
        
           | HPsquared wrote:
           | The risk assessments are a teeny bit different.
           | 
           | Edit: although maybe there's a good idea: catapult or winch
           | launch for electric aircraft would massively reduce the power
           | and energy storage requirements to be carried onboard.
        
             | WalterBright wrote:
             | Look at all the effort that goes into launching an airplane
             | with a catapult on an aircraft carrier.
             | 
             | There are other issues - like you cannot abort a catapult
             | in progress.
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | Being constrained to a ship makes things harder though.
               | If it was simply very long (runway length), I reckon an
               | abort would be fine. There are probably a lot of
               | different ways to do it.
               | 
               | But yeah, much harder than a regular runway. Probably not
               | economical.
        
         | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
         | You're assuming these investors actually believe it, and not
         | that they can sell it to a greater fool.
         | 
         | VC will invest in snake oil if they think they'll get out at a
         | profit.
        
         | mschuster91 wrote:
         | > There is no known battery technology, or one on the horizon,
         | that can provide a large enough power/weight to make them
         | practical.
         | 
         | Small aircraft are already there. I'm looking into starting my
         | pilots license this year, the local flight school recently
         | acquired an Elektra Trainer [1], that apparently has 2.5 hours
         | worth of flight time [2].
         | 
         | Big transoceanic widebodies obviously will be fossil fuel based
         | for a long time to come, but I think a lot of the GA market and
         | bush pilot/island hoppers can and will be done by electric
         | planes sooner than later - alone because the noise and lead
         | emissions are all but gone, and I think that in a few years,
         | when experiences on failure modes are a bit richer, electric
         | planes will also be cheaper to maintain - similar to cars,
         | there are less parts involved in the first place that can break
         | down.
         | 
         | [1] https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elektra_Trainer
         | 
         | [2] https://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayern/elektrisch-fliegen-
         | in-l...
        
           | WalterBright wrote:
           | It appears to be an ultra-light.
        
             | mschuster91 wrote:
             | It is, because it's easier to get started with
             | certification and experience in ultralights than in full-
             | size planes. It won't be long until we see bush capable
             | Cessnas, I think.
        
         | xnx wrote:
         | > The electric airplane is another myth.
         | 
         | Strong disagree. Short range eVTOL craft will blow open the
         | market for all kinds of use cases.
        
           | WalterBright wrote:
           | I've heard that story for 40 years. Invest in it if you like.
           | I'll pass.
        
         | mystified5016 wrote:
         | The plane, of course, flies anyway becuase planes don't care
         | what humans think is impossible
         | 
         | /j
        
         | gamegoblin wrote:
         | Beta Technologies is already shuttling cargo between
         | bases/depots for the US military with their eVTOL aircraft.
         | 
         | Demonstrated range of over 300 nautical miles. Significantly
         | higher reliability than helicopters previously used for the
         | same task, and much cheaper.
        
         | jillesvangurp wrote:
         | Really? The Beta Alia CX300 just completed a coast to coast
         | journey (Vermont - Santa Monica). Range of about 338 miles
         | using 200kwh of completely unremarkable ~150wh/kg batteries.
         | With 500wh/kg batteries being announced from multiple
         | manufacturers now, that range should improve pretty quickly.
         | 
         | > There is no known battery technology, or one on the horizon,
         | 
         | The planes and batteries are getting there.
        
         | avidiax wrote:
         | I feel there is an unaddressed market for a hybrid gas/electric
         | or diesel/electric powerplant.
         | 
         | Size the battery for takeoff/climbing/go-around/diversion use-
         | cases. Size the fossil-fuel engine for cruising power, which
         | should improve efficiency. During takeoff and climbing power,
         | the two motors work together. During cruise and descent, the
         | electric motor regenerates the battery. I imagine that for
         | general aviation, you would maintain one propshaft and not even
         | bother with a clutch pack, since the gas engine is needed in
         | all phases of flight, and freewheeling an electric motor is
         | simple. Perhaps have the fossil-fuel engine keyed to the shaft
         | with a shearing pin, so that if the engine seizes, the electric
         | motor still turns the prop.
         | 
         | This has the advantage that you now have two independent
         | motors, which could eventually help with ETOPS rating, but
         | would initially improve safety/reliability for general
         | aviation.
         | 
         | Yes, you are still fossil-fuel dependent, but you burn much
         | less of it, first by offsetting some takeoff energy to the
         | electrical grid, and secondly by reducing reserve power in the
         | fossil fuel engine to improve efficiency.
        
       | 01HNNWZ0MV43FF wrote:
       | Because people are allergic to hybrids and I don't know why
       | 
       | "Electric is short range, fuel is expensive, guess I have to pick
       | one"
       | 
       | The ideal drivetrain was invented over 20 years ago by Toyota and
       | apparently nobody but me and Honda noticed it!
        
         | mschuster91 wrote:
         | > The ideal drivetrain was invented over 20 years ago by Toyota
         | and apparently nobody but me and Honda noticed it!
         | 
         | The problem is hybrid drivetrains are _complex_. You don 't
         | save anything on the complexity of a combustion engine and
         | exhaust train (over 1000 individual parts that have to be
         | machined at extremely low tolerances), but add a more complex
         | transmission (it needs to be able to work with two distinct
         | inputs) and an electric drivetrain on top of that.
         | 
         | It is worth it in terms of energy efficiency and acceleration
         | stats since even a small electric motor can supply a lot of
         | torque at low speeds until the high-horsepower combustion
         | engine catches up (virtually all modern cars have a
         | turbocharger that needs time to spin up), but it's technically
         | challenging to actually build into a modern car design - unlike
         | 90s cars with ample space available to stuff components in, in
         | a modern car every cubic centimeter is accounted for due to
         | crash resistance.
        
           | jshier wrote:
           | As a simple driver of cars, I've never understood why no one
           | has mass produced an EV with a built-in generator. That would
           | avoid the complexity of the hybrid drive train, allow easy
           | plugin and short range electric-only travel, and could even
           | be offered as an optional attachment. So what am I missing?
           | Is the efficiency gained by the generator offset by losses
           | through the EV system?
        
             | wahern wrote:
             | This was the GM Volt, predecessor to the Bolt:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Volt GM ceased
             | production in 2019. The answer to your question can
             | probably be found there, but IIRC [from GM's perspective]
             | the consumer market preferred ICE + battery over electric +
             | generator, especially after the all-electric options came
             | to market and siphoned demand from the latter.
        
             | BerislavLopac wrote:
             | BMW i3 and Chevrolet Volt both had that option:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Range_extender
             | 
             | And of course, there are plug-in hybrids:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_hybrid
        
             | jfengel wrote:
             | It just turns out not to be worth it. The generator is a
             | lot of weight to add, and a whole bunch of new parts to
             | maintain.
             | 
             | It's a lot easier to add enough batteries to match the
             | range of an ICE car. Range anxiety is largely manufactured
             | at this point. The cars know how far they can go and where
             | the chargers are. A gasoline powered generator would be a
             | huge extra cost with no real upside other than averting a
             | non-problem.
        
             | 00N8 wrote:
             | Edison Motors is working on a system like this. They're
             | looking to sell kits for retrofitting it onto pickup
             | trucks, & a larger scale semi truck cab version for use
             | with logging trucks. It looks great in their videos,
             | although I'm not sure if they're selling to the public yet
             | - probably a ways to go before it's really mass produced.
        
             | AnthonyMouse wrote:
             | That is called a series hybrid and the reason they're not
             | popular is that the power split device in common hybrids is
             | simply better.
             | 
             | The power split device isn't an ordinary transmission, it's
             | a set of planetary gears with a fixed gear ratio between
             | three shafts. One goes to the wheels, the other two to the
             | engine and the electric motor respectively. The ratio of
             | the engine speed to the wheel speed is then set by the
             | speed of the electric motor connected to the third shaft,
             | which gives you a CVT with no belts, clutches, torque
             | converters or even synchros.
             | 
             | The transmission is "more complicated" only in the sense
             | that it contains electric motors. In every other respect
             | it's simpler, more efficient and _more reliable_ than an
             | ordinary transmission. Meanwhile those electric motors mean
             | you don 't need a starter motor or an alternator because
             | the engine can be started by the electric motor through the
             | transmission and an electric motor is a generator when
             | operated in reverse.
             | 
             | A series hybrid still requires you to have a gas engine
             | with all that entails, but now the gas engine needs its own
             | dedicated electric generator/motor _and_ you can 't deliver
             | power from the gas engine directly to the wheels, so the
             | traction motors have to be bigger in order to supply 100%
             | of the torque used in acceleration instead of the gas
             | engine and electric motors both contributing. That makes
             | series hybrids heavier, slower and more expensive, so
             | they're basically useless. Probably the main advantage
             | would be that you could offer the generator as an option on
             | what would otherwise be a full electric vehicle and then
             | only people who need the extra range would pay for it.
        
               | MostlyStable wrote:
               | Wouldn't an additional advantage of series hybrids be
               | that the engine can be tuned to operate solely in it's
               | most efficient RPM band, since it just charging the
               | battery and doesn't need to deal with changing speeds?
               | This can (according to some _very_ cursory googling),
               | result in efficiency gains of 20-30% relative to the
               | least efficient RPMs. This should at least partially
               | offset some of the size and weight considerations, since
               | you don 't need to size the engine for it's energy output
               | in less efficient speeds. This seems like it would be
               | most important in stop-and-go conditions where the engine
               | is spending considerable time at less efficient speeds,
               | such as in a bus.
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | The parallel hybrids can already do that because of the
               | CVT.
               | 
               | They also allow the engine to run at higher speeds under
               | heavy acceleration because the peak efficiency RPM and
               | the peak power RPM are different and the assumption is
               | that if the driver is stomping on the accelerator they
               | want to resolve the power/efficiency trade off in favor
               | of power right now.
        
             | torginus wrote:
             | Most BYD PHEVs work like that - with the additional option
             | of connecting the engine directly to the wheels via a
             | clutch at highway speeds. I think Honda has a similar
             | system.
        
           | xnx wrote:
           | Some hybrid drivetrains have fewer moving parts than a
           | traditional ICE and are more reliable.
        
             | wahern wrote:
             | That undersells it. The data on hybrid drivetrains is
             | pretty clear--it's definitely more reliable. Even mechanics
             | will tell you that; certainly mine did, and he's not a
             | masochist. Start+stop is hell on mechanical drivetrains.
             | It's a no-brainer when purchasing a new car _except_ that
             | there 's still a premium for hybrid, so the RoI might not
             | be there given baseline reliability and depending on your
             | preferences. Though the premium gap is closing, at least
             | for non-plugin hybrids. Plugin hybrids are the new premium
             | option in model lineups, so traditional hybrids are moving
             | down market.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | My plugin hybrid (I just bought it 2 weeks ago) is on
               | track to save me $200/month over the others similar
               | vehicle it replaced (minivan with the same engine, but 10
               | years difference in years, so lots of other differences).
        
               | Tade0 wrote:
               | My ROI is in how I can slam in reverse when I'm rolling
               | forward or floor it whenever without concern for the
               | drivetrain.
        
             | vardump wrote:
             | Sounds counterintuitive.
             | 
             | Any references?
        
               | floxy wrote:
               | https://www.rav4world.com/threads/how-the-ecvt-operates-
               | with...
        
               | em500 wrote:
               | At least for Toyota hybrids, the intuition is that the
               | traditional ICE transmission system is replaced by what
               | Toyota calls a "power split device" which continuously
               | feeds and balances the electric and combustion power
               | sources. This power split device uses a simpler gearing
               | system (enabled by the high torque electric motors) and
               | appears to be mechanically simpler and more reliable than
               | traditional transmission systems (which probably wear out
               | quicker than the engine in most ICEs).
        
         | bell-cot wrote:
         | Here in SE Michigan, one local transit authority ditched its
         | new hybrid busses and returned to diesel ~15 years ago -
         | because the TCO for the hybrid busses was so much higher that
         | fixing the hole in their budget proved impossible.
        
           | a1o wrote:
           | What is TCO?
        
             | bigthymer wrote:
             | Total Cost of Ownership
        
             | astura wrote:
             | Total Cost of Ownership.
             | 
             | It includes fuel & upkeep costs.
        
         | busthrowaway23 wrote:
         | (At least in King County Metro) their newer diesel-electric
         | buses are series hybrids that use electric motors for traction,
         | and diesel generators to power a small battery. The drivetrain
         | seems smart but maybe other agencies use it less? You can look
         | up the bus model online - New Flyer XDE class
        
         | Tade0 wrote:
         | I've ridden both hybrid and electric buses and I prefer the
         | latter, as those huge engines still produce a lot of vibration.
         | 
         | I drive a Toyota hybrid and while it's a step up from a purely
         | combustion propelled car, I still have to do oil changes and
         | its fumes still smell bad when it's running rich for whatever
         | reason.
        
         | AnthonyMouse wrote:
         | The drivetrain was actually invented several decades before
         | that. It wasn't until around 20 years ago that the _batteries_
         | got to the point to make it practical to use.
         | 
         | They're also made by more than Toyota and Honda. The American
         | automakers have been offering vehicles with a similar hybrid
         | powertrain for around two decades and the German automakers for
         | only a little less than that. But they're generally not a
         | separate _model_ like the Prius is, so the only exterior
         | difference is a hybrid badge on what is otherwise visually
         | identical to the non-hybrid car /truck of the same model.
        
       | comte7092 wrote:
       | Why do transit agencies keep falling for hydrogen busses? From
       | the perspective of the US, it's pretty simple:
       | 
       | 1. Transit agencies have no way to reasonably validate what the
       | future holds. From the standpoint of today, a hydrogen bus can be
       | expected to replace a diesel bus 1 to 1, while battery electric
       | is a 2 to 1 replacement. This might not be a huge issue except:
       | 
       | 2. FTA regulations have strict requirements on how many spare
       | busses may be kept at any time (defined by the ratio of peak
       | vehicle usage vs the size of the overall fleet), doubling the
       | size of the fleet blows this ratio out of the water.
       | 
       | 3. It doesn't matter what BYD offers or what's possible in China,
       | US transit agencies are _required_ (FTA regs again!) to buy
       | busses made in the US. American manufacturers do have somewhat
       | decent battery electric products, but they are clearly not at the
       | leading edge. With the proterra banktrupcy, there are limited
       | competent suppliers in the market. To a large degree, gillig et
       | al do get to decide what gets pushed into the market.
        
         | xnx wrote:
         | > US transit agencies are required (FTA regs again!) to buy
         | busses made in the US
         | 
         | BYD makes electric buses in California:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_K_series
        
       | cf100clunk wrote:
       | Look into propane (a.k.a. LPG or Autogas).
       | 
       | If the goal is anything-but-diesel-or-gasoline/petrol, the use of
       | propane (a fossil fuel that is a byproduct of oil and gas
       | refining) is a well-understood, well-implemented practice. I am
       | not advocating for propane as a primary solution, but rather as
       | part of the journey towards truly clean vehicle emissions and the
       | ramp-down of heavily polluting fossil fuel refining. Propane and
       | the equipment to operate engines with it are available today, and
       | we have the knowledge going back over a century to implement it
       | successfully.
       | 
       | BTW, I wish I could find the article from the 1970s discussing
       | how Ford Motor Company engineers had converted a brand-new 1960s
       | Lincoln to propane and ran it with 100% synthetic motor oil,
       | never changing the oil or filter. After 500,000 miles of daily
       | use, they stripped the engine down to its parts and found it to
       | be shiny and not exhibiting the expected amount of wear seen in
       | usual engines of those years with much lower mileage. I'd have to
       | pour through old magazines for that story, but life gets in the
       | way, so let's treat my recollection as apocryphal.
        
         | gwbas1c wrote:
         | A local airport shuttle service converted some of their vans to
         | propane. They told me the benefit is that they go about 3-4x
         | longer between oil changes. (I suspect they aren't brave enough
         | to go 500,000 miles.)
        
         | bolognafairy wrote:
         | I tell you hwat!
        
         | ianburrell wrote:
         | There isn't any point to propane now. Electric busses got good
         | enough to do the job. Propane reduces pollution, but the goal
         | is to reduce CO2 emissions. Buying propane means buying
         | electric in decade or two.
        
       | javiramos wrote:
       | Please also electrify garbage trucks
        
         | drdirk wrote:
         | Here in Barcelona Spain they are electric!
        
       | hatthew wrote:
       | > Fuel cell buses do produce sufficient waste heat, but here's
       | the problem: it's exceptionally expensive heat. Every degree of
       | warmth comes from hydrogen -- a fuel that's costly to produce,
       | store, and transport. Unlike diesel, heating with hydrogen's
       | waste heat is technically easy but economically painful.
       | 
       | Isn't waste heat pretty much free by definition?
        
         | hannob wrote:
         | Within one technology, that'd be true. But not if you have the
         | option to choose another technology that produces a lot less
         | waste heat.
        
           | hatthew wrote:
           | Yeah, I just find the framing very weird. It's talked about
           | as if it's somehow worse than diesel. But then isn't the
           | issue that hydrogen fuel is less economical than diesel in
           | general, regardless of whether the fuel is used for
           | locomotion or for passenger heating? In the context of
           | passenger heating specifically, waste heat is either free for
           | both diesel and hydrogen, or equally non-free for both.
           | 
           | Also the article appears to be arguing for electric instead
           | of hydrogen buses, but for some reason seems to try to frame
           | "winter range" as being an issue for hydrogen buses
           | specifically, and then says "electric buses face a different
           | challenge" -- winter range.
           | 
           | I feel like there are two separate points that can be made:
           | 
           | - Hydrogen fuel is more costly than diesel or electric (not
           | even sure how true this is, but it's what the article seems
           | to indirectly imply).
           | 
           | - Hydrogen fuel doesn't have winter range issues the way
           | electric buses do, but regardless electric is still better
           | for other reasons.
        
         | kstrauser wrote:
         | Thanks, you beat me to it. While it _is_ more expensive per
         | watt, that 's a sunk cost: you've already paid it when you were
         | consuming the hydrogen to make the bus move.
        
       | egypturnash wrote:
       | Opening image: ChatGPT.
       | 
       | I'm just gonna assume the rest of the article is from the same
       | source and close this tab.
        
       | jillesvangurp wrote:
       | That goes for anything hydrogen and wheels pretty much.
       | 
       | It's actually pretty simple to figure out. Making hydrogen takes
       | energy. You lose some of the energy making the hydrogen. This is
       | not a fixable problem. At least not unless you break the laws of
       | thermodynamics.
       | 
       | When you have created hydrogen, you lose more energy compressing
       | the energy. Then you have to transport it to wherever it's going
       | to be pumped into the vehicle ... both of which take more energy.
       | Then it goes into a fuel cell, which loses more energy. All these
       | losses multiply. And if you know your maths, you know that
       | multiplying numbers smaller than 1 means the result gets smaller
       | and smaller. These losses are significant.
       | 
       | And we're comparing it with putting the energy into a battery
       | directly. It has inherently better round trip energy. Even if
       | hydrolyzers, and the infrastructure to store, compress, and
       | transport hydrogen were free (which they are not), using hydrogen
       | would still be more expensive than that. Because it wastes more
       | of the energy that goes in. So, in addition to the energy losses,
       | you also need to deal with infrastructure cost. On top of regular
       | energy infrastructure.
       | 
       | Anyway, that's all theory. For practice, just look at market
       | price of hydrogen. Most of that stuff is of the dirty grey
       | hydrogen variety creating that wastes a lot of methane. So much,
       | that it would be cleaner to just use the hydrogen in a combustion
       | engine in the bus and you'd have less CO2 emissions. Expending
       | more methane to make hydrogen to have less emissions makes no
       | logical sense.
       | 
       | If you are using grey hydrogen, it is more expensive per mile
       | than methane. Nothing can change that. If you are using green
       | hydrogen, it is more expensive per mile than battery electric.
       | Nothing can change that either. That's just physics and simple
       | economics. Yes there are some innovations in this space happening
       | that reduce the gap a little. But it's never going to be enough.
       | 
       | Right now it's not even close. Unless somebody is subsidizing the
       | hydrogen fuel, you'd be paying way more per mile than with
       | diesel. And not just a little bit. And a common reason to switch
       | from diesel to BEV is that it actually costs way less per mile
       | than diesel. So, instead of saving money, you are spending more
       | money.
       | 
       | Subsidies are hiding the true cost of hydrogen. That's the only
       | reason there are some vehicles on the road. As soon as the
       | subsidies dry up, hydrogen transport use cases evaporate. There
       | are of course plenty of other use cases where hydrogen is needed
       | that make much more economical sense. Using scarce and expensive
       | hydrogen for transport is a poor use of resources. The utopian
       | world where we have vast amounts of hydrogen surpluses does not
       | exist.
        
       | aagd wrote:
       | Also this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolleybus
        
         | andix wrote:
         | Trolleybusses are surprisingly expensive to operate. Battery
         | electric busses seem to be much cheaper to operate and often
         | good enough.
        
       | tim333 wrote:
       | There are some hydrogen busses working in the UK.
       | 
       | >34-bus expansion, jointly funded by Brighton & Hove Buses and
       | Surrey County Council, bringing their total hydrogen fleet to 54
       | vehicles - the largest hydrogen bus operation in the UK.
       | https://drivinghydrogen.com/2025/02/04/hydrogen-buses-34-new...
       | 
       | I'm not sure how cost effective it is compared to battery though.
        
       | andix wrote:
       | Answer to the question: political reasons and lobbying.
       | 
       | Hydrogen is produced by the big oil and gas companies. By pushing
       | hydrogen vehicle instead of battery electric vehicles they stay
       | in business.
       | 
       | They market hydrogen as a green alternative to oil, although most
       | hydrogen is currently produced from fossil sources, and this
       | won't change soon (next 10 years).
        
       | m463 wrote:
       | that site never loads for me - 403 forbidden
        
       | manchego wrote:
       | I'm just waiting for flywheel powered buses to make a return:
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gyrobus
        
         | Ericson2314 wrote:
         | Cool :) but reminds me that all energy storage is scary and an
         | accident waiting to happen.
         | 
         | Flows > stocks, overhead wire for the win!
        
           | NikkiA wrote:
           | I personally think Battery buses with SAE J3105 'docking'
           | points at key stops (basically, the stops that are used to
           | loiter to set timing, rather than leaving as soon as
           | possible) is a better solution than the cost of stringing OHL
           | through every major road in a city.
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_electric_bus#Chargin.
           | ..
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAE_J3105
        
         | askvictor wrote:
         | I'm currently reading "The Windup Girl" set in a mostly-post-
         | fossil-fuel future, where most energy storage is springs.
        
         | why_at wrote:
         | Wow I had no idea this existed
         | 
         | >Disadvantages
         | 
         | >Weight: a bus which can carry 20 persons and has a range of 2
         | km (1.2 mi) requires a flywheel weighing about 3 tons.
         | 
         | >The flywheel, which turns at 3000 revolutions per minute,
         | requires special attachment and security--because the external
         | speed of the disk is 900 km/h (560 mph).
         | 
         | It's truly a mystery why they never caught on
        
           | adamanonymous wrote:
           | You missed the last and most funny one
           | 
           | >Driving a gyrobus has the added complexity that the flywheel
           | acts as a gyroscope that will resist changes in orientation,
           | for example when a bus tilts while making a turn, assuming
           | that the flywheel has a horizontal rotation axis.
           | 
           | So you have a giant blender than can travel one mile in a
           | straight line before needing to be recharged
        
       | calibas wrote:
       | Back in 2003, President George W. Bush announced the Hydrogen
       | Fuel Initiative. At the time, people criticized the effort as an
       | attempt by the oil industry to shift attention away from electric
       | cars. The oil industry knew that hydrogen power wasn't going to
       | be viable anytime soon, while electric cars were already a direct
       | threat to their profits, so they pushed the US government towards
       | hydrogen power.
       | 
       | Not to disparage the talented scientists and engineers working on
       | hydrogen power, but now that 20 years have passed I believe it
       | was designed to fail.
        
         | yummypaint wrote:
         | It absolutely was. In the event that breakthroughs happened and
         | it became viable faster than expected, the backup plan was to
         | get the hydrogen from fossil fuels to make sure the industry
         | would still get its cut.
        
           | analog31 wrote:
           | Isn't that the only plan right now? Is commercially viable
           | hydrogen being made from any process other than the shift
           | reaction?
        
             | yummypaint wrote:
             | Back when the Bush admin was hyping this stuff they managed
             | to get the media to talk mostly about electrolysis of water
             | using solar power. They would talk about how only water
             | comes out the tailpipe, and the symmetry of being able to
             | reuse water to make more fuel was extremely appealing to
             | the credulous minds of the public.
             | 
             | Nothing has really changed either, 20 years later and
             | laypeople still don't have better information about this
             | technology...
        
       | ninalanyon wrote:
       | Because the US is in thrall to the oil companies.
        
       | fraserharris wrote:
       | AC Transit (eg: East San Francisco Bay) performed a detailed 2
       | year study (July 2020 - June 2022) comparing newer Hydrogen Fuel
       | Cell & Battery -powered buses to existing Diesel, Fuel Cell, &
       | Hybrid -powered buses, 5 of each type. The key results are the
       | Hydrogen Fuel Cells have significantly more expensive
       | infrastructure, fuel, and maintenance costs than Battery.
       | However, both technologies are still less reliable than Diesel.
       | 
       | The results are broken down into 4 volumes, each covering 6
       | months. You can read them here: https://www.actransit.org/zebta
        
         | int0x29 wrote:
         | Only two years? They operated hydrogen buses from 2006 to 2010
         | and then got some more in 2011 and 2019. There are budget line
         | items for new buses in 2023 and 2024 that I assume got bought
        
       | gblargg wrote:
       | https://archive.is/G6I98 (for those not wanting to enable
       | JavaScript)
        
       | neves wrote:
       | Why? Because Oil Companies are lobbying for inefficient hydrogen
       | to delay a green revolution:
       | 
       | https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/carbon-notes-5-green-hydrog...
       | 
       | > The members of the hydrogen coalition are all obviously
       | incumbent fossil fuel and petrochemical interests looking for a
       | bridge to the new era. If realized, their ambitious hydrogen
       | projects may overload the available supply of green power, for
       | little real benefit. By diverting badly needed clean power, green
       | hydrogen vanity projects may even slow down the energy
       | transition. And the subsidy regimes that are being put in place
       | could become self-perpetuating. As Gernot Wagner and Danny
       | Cullenward recently warned, "hydrogen could become the next corn
       | ethanol", a ruinously inefficient and environmentally damaging
       | creature of subsidies that are too big to kill.
        
         | askvictor wrote:
         | Not just to delay, but they're hope is that they'll be able to
         | control it when it happens. Oil companies move fluids, using
         | pipes and tankers. Hydrogen is a fluid. They want to keep doing
         | what they've been doing. Electricity doesn't fit into their
         | M.O.
        
         | pjscott wrote:
         | Do you have actual knowledge of their motives? Or is this
         | speculation, confidently stated as fact?
         | 
         | Another possible motive, mentioned in the the paragraph you
         | quote, is that the oil companies see an energy transition
         | coming and are trying to get aboard the hydrogen train to
         | diversify their future revenue sources. And that sounds like a
         | reasonable motive; the sort of thing that people who don't see
         | themselves as evil villains - i.e. the supermajority of people
         | - could embrace.
        
       | londons_explore wrote:
       | If hydrogen busses really were going to have a lower operational
       | cost per mile in 2050, then some company would be offering to
       | lease busses for $X per mile to transit operators, fuel included,
       | for a 25 year lease. They'd make a loss initially, but big
       | profits later.
       | 
       | That approach turns this technology maturation and cost risk into
       | a market, and those with most expertise can then put their own
       | money on the line to help everyone make the right decision.
        
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