[HN Gopher] First ammonia-fueled ship hits a snag
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       First ammonia-fueled ship hits a snag
        
       Author : pseudolus
       Score  : 131 points
       Date   : 2025-03-12 11:24 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (spectrum.ieee.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (spectrum.ieee.org)
        
       | _aavaa_ wrote:
       | Hopefully this ship of fools runs aground before it kills its
       | whole crew with the first, inevitable, leak.
        
         | pbmonster wrote:
         | Once corrosion is under control, is that danger actually higher
         | than the risk of a natural gas fuel system leaking and killing
         | a whole crew? Both gases are lighter than air, both form
         | explosive mixtures with air (but ammonia-air mixture has much
         | slower flame speed and slower pressure rise than natural gas -
         | for which it makes up with its much higher toxicity).
         | 
         | In the end, gas leaks are always bad. But at least you can
         | easily smell an ammonia leak.
        
           | iamthemonster wrote:
           | No the ammonia toxicity hazard is incredibly severe, it
           | immediately burns your lungs and you die by choking on your
           | own blood as your lungs dissolve. Whereas with natural gas
           | leaks you can reduce the likelihood of ignition by
           | intrinsically safe instrumentation and electrical components.
           | In both cases, gas detection and automated shutdown and
           | sectionalisation helps significantly.
        
           | rbanffy wrote:
           | > But at least you can easily smell an ammonia leak.
           | 
           | IIRC, they add a very nasty smelling chemical to LNG so that
           | leaks are evident before they get explosive. In the case of
           | ammonia, the additive is not really needed, and the toxicity
           | being much higher makes me think that, by the time you
           | realize you are breathing ammonia, it's already too late.
        
             | pbmonster wrote:
             | I know they add a thiol (sulfur compound that smells like
             | rotten eggs) to the city mains for cooking/heating gas.
             | 
             | Would be interesting to know if its commonly added to
             | industrial LNG. Because we burn a lot of that - even if you
             | only add a few ppm thiol to natural gas, that's a whole lot
             | of sulfur being burnt...
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | If you inhale natural gas it is only deadly (it can cause
           | other problems that are treatable) when it displaces enough
           | oxygen. In open air you are hopefully okay because there is
           | still enough oxygen that you can breath. Ammonia is deadly
           | when inhaled in small quantities. I wouldn't want either, but
           | ammonia is worse if you must choose.
           | 
           | I'm not sure how likely fire is in case of a leak.
        
         | HPsquared wrote:
         | Hopefully not.
         | 
         | Like anything else, risks can be mitigated.
         | 
         | The main concern for me is at dockside where there are lots of
         | people nearby. Ideally I think they'd "lock down" and
         | depressurise the ammonia system (except the storage tank) when
         | close to port, and only bring it online when out at sea and far
         | from population.
         | 
         | Also the refuelling process seems a bit risky. But these things
         | are already quite routine; ammonia is already a large-volume
         | industrial commodity with well-developed controls.
        
           | _aavaa_ wrote:
           | Risks can be mitigated. But the first step is _always_
           | eliminating the hazardous material if possible.
           | 
           | And many options exists that are less inherently dangerous
           | than ammonia. Like methanol. At least it's a liquid and not
           | nearly as bad.
           | 
           | But ammonia is chosen as a predatory delay strategy. They
           | build the engines to be dual fuel (ammonia and methane) and
           | then feign surprise when they have to run it on methane since
           | the ammonia supply chain "isn't ready yet" and the prices
           | "need to come down a bit".
        
         | M_bara wrote:
         | If you think this is bad, then the chemicals used in rocketry -
         | read the book ignition [1] - will have you whimpering in a
         | corner. As with any system, risks can be identified and
         | controlled and operationalised - Gasoline has its risks, so
         | does Chlorine trifluoride [2]. Yet both are wildly different
         | and are used in day to day operations.
         | 
         | 1.
         | https://library.sciencemadness.org/library/books/ignition.pd...
         | 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chlorine_trifluoride
        
           | j33zusjuice wrote:
           | I think that's not a good comparison. I think we generally
           | accept that leaving the planet is inherently riskier than
           | traveling on it. You have to generate enough energy to exit
           | the atmosphere, that's a shitload of energy. Of course it's
           | dangerous. We've been sailing relatively safely for thousands
           | of years, though.
        
           | _aavaa_ wrote:
           | Yes rocketry has made very dangerous chemical. And hydrazine
           | is used in other fields too. But it's used because there
           | aren't safer alternatives that are fit for purpose.
           | 
           | Ammonia is being pushed as a predatory delay strategy. The
           | article hints at this when it talks about the engines being
           | dual-fuel (ammonia and methane). Given the massive price
           | difference between green ammonia and methane it doesn't take
           | a genius to know what their next message will be "our ships
           | are ammonia ready, we will run them on methane until the
           | ammonia supply chains are ready then we'll transition to it".
           | Expect they have no intention of transitioning.
           | 
           | The ships are "ammonia ready" in the same way my driveway is
           | Ferrari ready. All that's missing is a lot of other people's
           | money.
        
         | rbanffy wrote:
         | > Hopefully this ship of fools runs aground
         | 
         | Hopefully in a deserted rock in the middle of nowhere.
        
         | thijson wrote:
         | I read about some of the mitigation methods for an Ammonia
         | fueled ship. If Ammonia is detected in the air, they start
         | spraying water, like a sprinkler system. Ammonia has a high
         | affinity to water.
         | 
         | Ammonia is also lighter than air. When it is first released it
         | is typically cold, so it sticks around until it warms up.
         | Eventually it will float up into the atmosphere.
         | 
         | One disadvantage is its lower energy density, you need to store
         | twice as much of it as bunker oil.
         | 
         | One advantage that I can see for Ammonia is that the
         | ingredients it is composed of are readily available from the
         | environment. Also, the fuel may be upgraded by cracking it into
         | hydrogen and nitrogen using waste heat from the engine.
         | Hydrogen gives a bigger pop in the cylinder, Ammonia doesn't
         | burn as easily.
         | 
         | One scenario I can think of is using nuclear power on a
         | platform in the ocean, manufacturing the Ammonia, ships can
         | come by and refuel there.
        
           | _aavaa_ wrote:
           | > readily available in the environment.
           | 
           | That's a red herring. Getting hydrogen and nitrogen out of
           | their naturally occurring forms (bonded to other things or to
           | themselves) and turning it into ammonia is very energetically
           | intensive.
           | 
           | > One scenario I can think of is using nuclear power on a
           | platform in the ocean, manufacturing the Ammonia, ships can
           | come by and refuel there.
           | 
           | I can think of many such scenarios if money is no object.
           | 
           | But as you say, they currently run on bunker fuel which is
           | essentially garbage. You have to pay people to take that of
           | your hands. It is being ridiculous to think that they would
           | switch, on their own dime, to burning ammonia. And green
           | ammonia at that which is orders of magnitude more expensive.
           | 
           | Who is willing to pay the resulting shipping costs?
        
           | dredmorbius wrote:
           | Both hydrogen and carbon are _also_ readily available from
           | the environment.
           | 
           | Synthesizing hydrocarbon analogues of fossil fuels (petrol,
           | kerosene, diesel, bunker fuel[1]) is _possible_ and has been
           | theoretically demonstrated.[2] The problem is that it 's not
           | _economically_ feasible, in large part due to structural
           | market failures in the price of petroleum.[3]
           | 
           |  _Physical abundance_ of the constituent elements has little
           | to do with _production costs_ of the resultant fuel.
           | 
           | And hydrocarbons are vastly preferable to ammonia as fuels
           | for all kinds of reasons: energy density, noncorrosive
           | nature,[4] non-toxicity, convenience in general handling and
           | storage, etc., etc., etc. So long as you're synthesizing
           | fuels, make it the good stuff, not poison.
           | 
           | ________________________________
           | 
           | Notes:
           | 
           | 1. That last is probably a non-starter. It's harder to
           | synthesize longer-chain hydrocarbons, so far as I'm aware,
           | and the primary driver of bunker oil for marine propulsion is
           | that it's an otherwise low-value surplus from conventional
           | petroleum production, even a large fraction of much
           | extraction, e.g., Venezuela's very tarry petroleum,and
           | Canada's tar sands. Lighter fractions would be easier to
           | synthesize and more attractive as fuels.
           | 
           | 2. For about 60 years, including research at Brookhaven
           | National Labs, M.I.T., and the US Naval Research Lab, as well
           | as with a Google moonshot project. A list of sources is here:
           | <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28970111>
           | 
           | 3. A deep topic, but given the fact that we're extracting
           | petroleum at roughly 1 million times its rate of formation,
           | and in a highly unsustainable fashion, there's a fair
           | argument that petroleum ought to be priced about 1 million
           | times its current market price. The economics of nonrenewable
           | resource extraction is grossly irrational and divorced from
           | physical and geological realities. On rates of formation,
           | Jeffrey S. Dukes, "Burning Buried Sunshine" (2003)
           | <https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/5212176.pdf> (PDF). Previous
           | discussions: <https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&pr
           | efix=false&qu...>
           | 
           | 4. Indeed hydrocarbons are routinely used as lubricants and
           | protectives for metals and other materials.
        
       | InDubioProRubio wrote:
       | Maybe try hydrogen? Or beavers? Have it driven by environmental
       | movements, you finance selective steered into being maximum
       | annoying?
        
         | fredgrott wrote:
         | it does seem safer see
         | 
         | https://blog.ballard.com/marine/worlds-first-liquid-powered-...
        
         | j33zusjuice wrote:
         | Seems you left out a whole bunch of words because that comment
         | doesn't make any sense.
        
           | InDubioProRubio wrote:
           | It makes, when you consider, that its all just "measures" by
           | the oil industry to stop society from steering away from it.
           | They either invest in DoA technologies or technologies that
           | allow for greenwashing of fossil fuels.
           | 
           | Beavers? Lets say you want to steer the population away form
           | reasonable environmental goals like high speed rail or public
           | transport (which has to cost something to keep bums out). You
           | then pick some mad-sob with a insane initiative like "rewild
           | skunks in the inner city parks" and pump that up with donated
           | millions. Result, that mad- as a hatter, propagates his
           | "initiative", riles up the masses and his co-goals - which
           | may include high-speed rail get discredited.
        
       | imchillyb wrote:
       | What is the environmental impact of this ship sinking, leaking,
       | or even dumping the ammonia payload?
        
         | pbmonster wrote:
         | It dissolves in water quickly. Then big algae bloom, lots of
         | dead fish. Mammals handle it OK.
         | 
         | Ammonia can directly act as a nitrogen fertilizer, and plants
         | love that. Mammals quickly convert it in their livers, but
         | aquatic animals can't handle having it in their bloodstream and
         | die quickly from it.
         | 
         | High concentrations can overwhelm the liver, and then its toxic
         | even for humans. Pure, ammonia vapor is incredibly toxic and
         | even tiny concentrations are bad for the mucosa.
        
           | pfdietz wrote:
           | I believe in much of the ocean nitrogen is not the limiting
           | nutrient for plant growth, because while it can be fixed from
           | dissolved molecular nitrogen, there's no direct major source
           | of things like phosphorus or iron.
           | 
           | Things would be different near coasts where sediment is
           | washing in.
        
           | giardini wrote:
           | What could possibly go wrong?
           | 
           | pbmonster says _" Pure, ammonia vapor is incredibly toxic and
           | even tiny concentrations are bad for the mucosa."_
           | 
           | As in "dissolves the mucosa"!
           | 
           | The 1976 ammonia truck disaster:
           | 
           | In 1976 a truck of ammonia gas ruptured on a freeway
           | interchange in Houston. The scene was akin to early World War
           | I gas warfare. The Houston Post newspaper office building was
           | about a half mile from the spill. The ammonia cloud rolled
           | over and past the building in minutes but quick-witted
           | building engineers shut down the air circulation system so no
           | one inside was hurt. The greenery around the building and
           | area was scorched brown by the passing heavier-than-air
           | ammonia cloud:
           | 
           | "How A Deadly Cloud In Houston Decades Ago Led To 'Shelter-
           | In-Place' (good pic of the initial truck explosion):"
           | 
           | https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2016/04/25/.
           | ..
           | 
           | Film footage of the scene and victims - moderately gory:
           | 
           | "The worst accident in Houston history: The 1976 ammonia
           | truck disaster":
           | 
           | https://abc13.com/ammonia-truck-disaster-houston/1332062/
        
         | xoa wrote:
         | According to a quick search, Viking Energy apparently will have
         | a 220 cubic meter tank, which would equate to 220000 liters of
         | ammonia. In aquaculture apparently ammonia reaches an almost
         | universally high damage/lethal combination for fish (mammals
         | can handle significant amounts thanks to a specific enzyme to
         | handle build up the blood, fish have to just excrete it fast
         | enough) and other non-mammals at around 2mg/L. Assuming all
         | 220000 L of ammonia went 100% into the water and dissolved
         | completely times 0.769 kg/m^3 density at STP, it'd be at the
         | lethal level when dissolved in less than 84590000 liters of
         | water, which equates to a cube approximately 44 meters per side
         | or a sphere with a radius of 27 meters. Even with a 10x margin
         | (since apparently some organisms can suffer damage even if not
         | death from 0.2mg/L) that's nothing for an ocean going ship in
         | general.
         | 
         | So at least at first glance to me that looks very favorable vs
         | the bunker fuel ships normally use, which is also horribly
         | toxic but also floats and is much harder for creatures to get
         | rid of.
        
           | marcosdumay wrote:
           | > times 0.769 kg/m^3 density at STP
           | 
           | The ship's tank is not at STP. The ammonia inside it is
           | pressurized into a liquid.
        
             | yread wrote:
             | Indeed it's more like 600 kg/m3, so, about 1000 times more
             | ammonia. So, the cube would be about 10 times bigger (side
             | of 400m).
             | 
             | https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/ammonia-liquid-thermal-
             | pr...
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | Yep. You just immediately killed all life in a volume
               | larger than the ship, and since diffusion on volumes that
               | large take time, created a plume of toxic water that will
               | wander for many minutes before dissolving well enough.
               | 
               | Not a big deal on the ocean. And yeah, better than an oil
               | spill.
        
         | timewizard wrote:
         | You put people on a ship across the ocean and they're going to
         | dump their waste tanks into it. They're going to spill and leak
         | industrial chemicals into it. There's a certain amount of loss
         | that occurs during shipping and additional packaging that goes
         | into securing it.
         | 
         | You're better off building things closer to where they are
         | needed rather than relying on shipping for cheap consumer
         | goods. Bunker fuel oil, LNG, ammonia, it's all putting the cart
         | before the horse.
        
       | rdtsc wrote:
       | > Ammonia is toxic, explosive, and corrosive
       | 
       | Someone I knew died from inhaling ammonia vapors after the system
       | wasn't purged properly and they opened a valve. Having a whole
       | ship fueled by it seems like insanity when there is fuel that
       | does to that to a person.
        
         | patates wrote:
         | I'm sorry for your loss. Ammonia is the the thing that our body
         | happily spends its precious water in more-than-enough amounts
         | just to make sure it's gotten rid of. The only mammal that
         | optimized that process is camels if I'm not misremembering. I
         | also found it a bit crazy to fill a ship with it.
        
         | GJim wrote:
         | Petrol is also _insanely_ dangerous, yet we seem to manage.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | Petro is practically safe compared to ammonia. Petro only
           | explodes in specific air-fuel situations. The vapors are
           | harmful, but not deadly in small quantities like ammonia is.
           | Calling petro "insanely dangerous" is wrong. Petro is the
           | most dangerous substance normal people handle in quantity,
           | but we allow normal people to handle it in quantity because
           | it while it isn't safe it isn't all that dangerous.
           | 
           | Your standard household ammonia CONCENTRATE people sometimes
           | use for cleaning is 99% water - you dilute it significantly
           | for use. Even used correctly it is nasty stuff.
        
             | unwind wrote:
             | _Petro (sic) only explodes in specific air-fuel situations_
             | 
             | That seems to be true for ammonia as well, at least
             | according to the Wikipedia page's [1] section on
             | Combustion:
             | 
             |  _Ammonia does not burn readily or sustain combustion,
             | except under narrow fuel-to-air mixtures of 15-28% ammonia
             | by volume in air._
             | 
             | That doesn't sound too horrible, it feels like
             | gasoline/petrol is easier to combust (although I know it's
             | the fumes that are actually flammable).
             | 
             | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ammonia#Combustion
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Maybe I wasn't clear. Ammonia is burning is not the
               | worry. Ammonia in small quantities will kill you
               | directly. no fire needed, it will kill you.
        
               | LeifCarrotson wrote:
               | To be clear, "small quantities" are in units of parts per
               | million. 5ppm (0.0005%) and the room smells of ammonia,
               | 25ppm means you should be wearing a respirator, 500 ppm
               | (0.05%) can be lethal.
               | 
               | Warning that 15% air-ammonia mixtures can burn is like
               | warning that 100 kg of TNT could give you a concussion if
               | it fell on your head. It's just not the concern at all.
        
               | ClumsyPilot wrote:
               | This risk factor sounds less like a normal chemical
               | substance and more on the level of uranium
        
               | adrianN wrote:
               | It's comparable to carbon monoxide, except you can't
               | smell that one.
        
           | rdtsc wrote:
           | Like the sibling comment mentioned it is nothing compared to
           | ammonia. Yeah if you dump it somewhere in the ocean it might
           | decompose with less damage to the environment but I was
           | talking about immediate damage to humans.
        
           | potato3732842 wrote:
           | Ships don't run on petrol, they run on various grades of
           | bunker oil which is basically just really thin lubricating
           | oil.
        
             | 0_____0 wrote:
             | You're thinking of something like regular fuel oil, like
             | diesel or kerosene. Heavy fuel oil/bunker is very viscous,
             | has to be heated to be pumped efficiently.
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | >You're thinking of something like regular fuel oil, like
               | diesel or kerosene. Heavy fuel oil/bunker is very
               | viscous, has to be heated to be pumped efficiently.
               | 
               | I assure you I am not.
               | 
               | I specifically compared it to lubricants to avoid a bunch
               | of people mentally anchoring the discussion around
               | diesel. Bunker C (the common one, also the most thick
               | one) is basically on the automotive oil spectrum when it
               | comes to viscosity.
               | 
               | Go to 0:00 for room temp and 9:00 for operating temp
               | (which is low enough for a plastic soda bottle and a bare
               | hand to be appropriate).
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZZ591x0Ajs. Sure looks
               | like 5w20 to me. Def thinner than gear oils and any
               | comparison to 000 grease or roofing tar on a hot day is
               | laughable. Bunker fuel is solidly on the oil spectrum.
        
               | aziaziazi wrote:
               | > very viscous > I assure you I'm not
               | 
               | > bunker fuel is solidity
               | 
               | You seems to be knowledgeable in that domain and has
               | something interesting to share but I don't understand
               | your point. What is the scale 0.00-9.00 ? What is the
               | preside point you don't agree with GP? Please EMLI5.
        
               | scrlk wrote:
               | > What is the scale 0.00-9.00 ?
               | 
               | Referring to the timestamps in the linked video (i.e.
               | from the start of the video to 9 minutes).
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | My point is that it's misleading to people who don't have
               | reason to deal in liquid fuels to characterize bunker oil
               | as thick or viscous when it's only thick relative to
               | fuels (which are generally pretty thin, they mostly pour
               | like water) despite not being particularly viscous
               | absolutely.
               | 
               | It's on the same order as most petroleum oils that people
               | deal with and thinner than pretty much every petroleum
               | product that is generally characterized as thick. Thinner
               | grades of motor oil and most hydraulic oil is a bit
               | thinner but thicker grades of motor oil, gear oils, all
               | sorts of greases and tars are all more viscous. Bunker
               | oil doesn't "need" to be heated to be pumped any more
               | than motor oil does though heating it and the
               | accompanying thinning does a lot to help with combustion
               | which is why they do it (and then the rest of the systems
               | that handle it get designed to take advantage of this)
               | and invoking the fact that this is done kind of implies a
               | comparison with the other petroleum products that get
               | heated before being used and in most people's experience
               | this is going to be products used to patch roofs and
               | roads which is unhelpful because those don't even flow
               | except at the highest extreme of naturally occurring
               | temperatures. The only context in which bunker oil is
               | particularly thick is if you're a fuel supplier and spend
               | all day dealing in much less viscous stuff.
               | 
               | I guess it's just pedantry at the end of the day.
               | 
               | And yes, the numbers were timestamp references.
        
               | dredmorbius wrote:
               | I've seen bunker fuel in a ship, and its consistency was
               | best described as "tar-like". Mind, n=1 and uses may
               | vary, but bunker fuel _can_ be exceedingly thick. All the
               | more so on high-latitude routes with fuel tanks near the
               | outer hull and cooled by ambient water temperatures near
               | freezing.
               | 
               | Decidedly thicker than automotive oil, and probably
               | thicker than axle grease or vaseline / petroleum jelly.
               | 
               | The ship in which that was used (triple-expansion steam
               | engine, late 1800s design, built and used during WWII)
               | directed spent steam around the incoming fuel flow
               | directly prior to boiler injection, and _that_ steam then
               | wrapped around the fuel line and part of the fuel tank
               | itself to heat the oil to the point it would flow.
               | 
               | Side note: Venezuelan oil is very thick and viscous, and
               | requires mixing with lighter fractions of petroleum to be
               | pumped out of wells. Venezuela typically _imports_ what
               | would otherwise be waste _light_ fractions of petroleum,
               | generally from the US or Nigeria (heavily dependent on
               | political winds) in order to do this. A significant
               | fraction of US petroleum exports go to this or similar
               | uses. (I suspect Canadian tar sands see similar treatment
               | though I don 't have a source on this.)
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | The differences in opinion here may be because we're
               | comparing #6 in a cold ambient environment to #5/#6 in a
               | warm ambient environment. Still, #6 is no grease.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_oil#Maritime_fuel_clas
               | sif...
        
             | GJim wrote:
             | My god you are thick.
             | 
             | The point was that risks can be managed.
        
           | dredmorbius wrote:
           | Petrol (gasoline to Americans) is dangerous largely for is
           | vapours. It's one of the lightest-possible liquid fuels with
           | about 6 carbon atoms per molecule (C6).[1] Most ships _don
           | 't_ burn petrol itself,[2] but rather _heavier fractions_ of
           | petroleum, generally either diesel (~C16) or bunker fuel (~30
           | or longer), which _don 't_ vapourise readily. It's possible
           | to extinguish a lit match in diesel fuel (the vapours above
           | petrol would ignite and/or explode), and bunker fuel
           | generally won't even _flow_ until it 's been heated above the
           | boiling point of water (spent steam from steamships is used
           | to heat the incoming fuel both so that it will flow and to
           | vapourise it before injection into boilers or diesel
           | cylinders).
           | 
           | The comparatively small quantities of petrol carried in
           | automobiles is not a grave hazard, though fuel tanks are
           | protected against damage or ignition, and fires do happen.
           | Larger vehicles, on land, sea, and air, often burn the
           | comparatively safer kerosene (aviation) or diesel (heavy
           | machinery).
           | 
           | ________________________________
           | 
           | Notes:
           | 
           | 1. "Distillate" and "NGL" (natural gas liquids) are used in
           | some instances, and can boil well below 100degC. Butane boils
           | at -0.5degC / 31.5degF.
           | 
           | 2. As I'd just mentioned in an earlier comment. I _thought_ a
           | well-known cruise ship or ocean-liner had been converted to
           | petrol, but can 't find a reference.
           | <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43344605>
        
         | bluGill wrote:
         | There are only around 30 people on such a ship - we can put
         | that many through extensive training to make sure they don't
         | make mistakes.
         | 
         | However no ship fueled without such trained crew should get
         | anywhere near one that is. Only special shipyards should allow
         | such a ship to dock - even the route from the open ocean needs
         | to be controlled - no beaches "near" those ships. I'm not sure
         | what a right margin of safety is, but don't allow such ship
         | into your national waters without first knowing that.
        
           | rbanffy wrote:
           | > we can put that many through extensive training to make
           | sure they don't make mistakes.
           | 
           | I hope you are being sarcastic.
        
             | Lanolderen wrote:
             | You get skill issued, you get auschwitzed
        
           | rdtsc wrote:
           | > However no ship fueled without such trained crew should get
           | anywhere near one that is. Only special shipyards should
           | allow such a ship to dock - even the route from the open
           | ocean needs to be controlled - no beaches "near" those ships.
           | I'm not sure what a right margin of safety is, but don't
           | allow such ship into your national waters without first
           | knowing that.
           | 
           | I could see that. At least, it sounds good in principle. But
           | with ships sailing under flags of countries with lax safety
           | requirements it may not be practical.
        
             | 0cf8612b2e1e wrote:
             | I thought the cargo ship that crashed into the Baltimore
             | bridge had a known failing engine. I get the impression
             | that a lot of shipping equipment and regulations are thread
             | bare.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | > Ammonia is toxic, explosive, and corrosive
         | 
         | It also smells like rotten fish.
        
           | M_bara wrote:
           | I thought it smells like piss. Rotten eggs - hydrogen
           | sulphide.
        
           | MisterTea wrote:
           | Although the chemical responsible for rotten fish,
           | Trimethylamine, is a derivative of ammonia, I never made the
           | link between the two. Ammonia smells like ammonia to me, no
           | matter the concentration level.
        
         | userbinator wrote:
         | Interesting fact: ammonia was (and still is) used as a
         | refrigerant, but aboard ships, carbon dioxide, also known as
         | carbonic acid at the time, became more common due to its
         | relative safety. This was in the late 19th/early 20th
         | centuries.
        
           | rdtsc wrote:
           | It was a large refrigeration system that killed the person I
           | had mentioned.
           | 
           | It's kind of odd, ammonia was used back in the day on older
           | systems. Then it was deemed too dangerous like you mentioned.
           | But now, due to environmental impact it's now considered less
           | dangerous and is "coming back".
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | The nonsense will last until the first large accident in
             | some experimental vehicle. Then it will go away again.
             | 
             | Hopefully, it won't happen on the middle of a populated
             | area.
        
           | daedrdev wrote:
           | We have yet to find a refrigerant that is not either toxic,
           | explosive, or destructive to the ozone layer / a potent
           | greenhouse gas. My understanding is that new consumer systems
           | use propane because its relatively safe and not toxic or
           | causing dangerous emmissions.
        
             | uticus wrote:
             | > use propane
             | 
             | It's called R-290 [0], but yes this is the same as in
             | "propane grill."
             | 
             | I'm a "consumer," but the technicians I talk to about
             | replacing a residential HVAC have mentioned that consumer
             | HVAC systems need new fire detection (maybe also
             | suppresion?) systems on the A/C side just because of the
             | new ingredient.
             | 
             | Again, not propane for the _heating_ side, but for cooling.
             | Crazy.
             | 
             | [0] https://www.superradiatorcoils.com/blog/r-290-pros-
             | cons-comp...
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | I wonder why they don't just put the whole chilling unit
               | outside and use a chilled water loop into the interior
               | air handler.
        
               | tristor wrote:
               | You could do that, but you'd need to build a heavily
               | insulated place to have the A-coil/evap head, as it
               | stands right now the efficiency loss would be too much.
               | Additionally, the current HVAC model also acts as a
               | rudimentary de-humidification system for buildings which
               | helps reduce the "felt" temperature and maintain humidity
               | levels beyond just cooling.
        
             | cyberax wrote:
             | Supercritical CO2 is a great refrigerant. It's neither
             | toxic, nor destructive to ozone, nor is it a particularly
             | dangerous for GW.
        
               | userbinator wrote:
               | CO2 was superseded by other refrigerants because it's
               | less efficient (incidentally, ammonia is one of the most
               | efficient), and the (very) heavy equipment required to
               | utilise it due to the extremely high pressures is also
               | costly.
        
               | cyberax wrote:
               | I believe, CO2 is actually more thermodynamically
               | efficient if used in supercritical freezers? It's just
               | much more difficult to work with, as you need all the
               | tubing to withstand about 90 atmospheres of pressure.
        
               | grigri907 wrote:
               | CO2 is less common today, but has hardly been
               | "superceded." I specialize in energy modeling for
               | industrial refrigeration systems, and have studied
               | several new industrial cold storage projects comparing
               | CO2 to freon and ammonia. Their efficiency is on par with
               | ammonia systems, within a few percentage points.
               | 
               | I'll agree that the equipment is heavy-duty, but disagree
               | if you mean "massive." The energy density of CO2 is so
               | high that suction lines can be 2"-4", 6"-8" is common for
               | ammonia. Modern systems use many (a dozen+) small recip
               | compressors instead of larger HP screw compressors. When
               | all is said and done, CO2 systems are small enough that
               | they are frequently contained to a single rack and placed
               | on the roof of a building, whereas a comparable ammonia
               | system requires its own engine room and a significantly
               | larger footprint.
               | 
               | The biggest opportunity for CO2 to outperform ammonia is
               | in heat recovery and reuse. I had a customer who was
               | exploring selling his (waste) heat as a utility to a
               | neighboring food processor.
        
             | timewizard wrote:
             | The problem with R290 systems is they generally do not get
             | service ports. As service ports tend to leak. So they're
             | fully sealed systems. This is great for small scale
             | refrigeration applications but for any indoor air cooling
             | or commercial refrigeration it's effectively unusable.
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | "Any leak will kill you through a horrible and painful
             | process" is not on the same level of problems as
             | "destructive to the ozone layer / a potent greenhouse gas".
        
         | tromp wrote:
         | If widely adopted, I fear that in time there will be
         | sufficiently many major incidents that we'll start talking
         | about deammonization as we currently talk about
         | decarbonization.
        
           | theoreticalmal wrote:
           | The drivers would be wildly different. Carbon and GHG
           | nowadays has this abstract, difficult to nail down effects.
           | Ammonia leaks would have immediate and directly related
           | negative effects.
        
       | preisschild wrote:
       | I wonder what environmentally-friendly propulsion system wins in
       | the next decade for large ships: ammonia, hydrogen or nuclear
       | reactors.
        
         | rich_sasha wrote:
         | I suppose there's more, ethanol and methanol, synthetic natural
         | gas.
         | 
         | It is a shame petroleum-based fuels are so damn convenient.
        
         | iamthemonster wrote:
         | none of those three, but I expect a combination of methanol,
         | biodiesel and (only for near-shore and inland shipping) battery
         | electric.
        
         | McDyver wrote:
         | Or wind
         | 
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oceanbird
        
           | j33zusjuice wrote:
           | We've come full circle.
        
           | preisschild wrote:
           | Might have niche-applications, but a nuclear-powered
           | container ship can do many more trips in the time it takes
           | this to do 1 trip.
        
         | speed_spread wrote:
         | I propose submerged stainless steel cables pulling boats from
         | underneath, powered by deep geothermal converters.
        
         | dredmorbius wrote:
         | Synthetic hydrocarbon analogues.
         | 
         | <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43344373>
        
         | looofooo0 wrote:
         | Batteries up to mid range are competetive already: https://eta-
         | publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-10...
        
       | iamthemonster wrote:
       | 2026 is still a very ambitious startup date for this. The
       | International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has only just approved
       | interim guidelines for the addition of ammonia to the IGF Code
       | (use of gaseous fuels). There's a lot to it, but this is a good
       | high level overview: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/imo-interim-
       | guidelines-safety...
       | 
       | A lot of commentators believe that since ammonia is less
       | inherently safe it will inevitably be less safe in practice. I am
       | not convinced by that argument, and in general if there's a
       | strong enough business driver then anything can be made safe. But
       | what really swung me against the idea of ammonia as a shipping
       | fuel is that the expected cost is barely any better than methanol
       | (which is much more inherently safe) and is more expensive than
       | biodiesel.
       | 
       | The shipping companies have a real conundrum on their hands - do
       | they go ammonia, methanol, stick with diesel, or try to get near-
       | shore and inland shipping onto electric? Ammonia-fuelled ships
       | have to be THOROUGHLY designed from the ground up specifically
       | for ammonia use; you have to be 100% committed to go down that
       | path. Whereas biodiesel can simply be dropped in (you can of
       | course choose to fill up with a biodiesel blend today, but nobody
       | does because you can put emissions into the atmosphere for free).
       | 
       | Unlike solar cells or battery cells, I don't really see much
       | chance for 'learning rates' and technology improvement to
       | drastically drive down the cost of green ammonia. Falling
       | electrolyser costs are nice, but they're only a portion of the
       | process plant CAPEX, and the cost of the green electricity
       | dominates the economics over the process plant CAPEX anyway. You
       | could get electrolysers for free and still be unable to make
       | cheap green ammonia. So for green ammonia to get adopted, a
       | strong 'carbon price' needs to be in place, and I think that same
       | strong carbon price would make biodiesel competitive.
        
         | rbanffy wrote:
         | > So for green ammonia to get adopted, a strong 'carbon price'
         | needs to be in place, and I think that same strong carbon price
         | would make biodiesel competitive.
         | 
         | And next to ammonia, biodiesel is almost drinkable.
        
           | marcosdumay wrote:
           | And there's the entire CO versus NO or NO2.
           | 
           | But well, the silver lining is that the combustion products
           | literally burning your lungs means that you won't unknowingly
           | lock yourself in a room with a running engine.
        
             | rbanffy wrote:
             | Also a very unlikely form of suicide - people generally opt
             | for less painful ways to die.
        
         | rzwitserloot wrote:
         | I'm pretty sure the costs of producing a fuel based solely on
         | making it with electricity is by far, of all the options you
         | named, best done with Ammonia.
         | 
         | The reason the cost of ammonia is barely better, or even worse,
         | than things like methanol, is because the electricity process
         | is still expensive.
         | 
         | But that can (and soon would!) become waaaay cheaper.
         | Electricity __NOT__ on demand is dirt cheap and can be halved
         | and quartered some more: Solar panels are _idiotically cheap_
         | these days and that state of affairs is not temporary.
         | 
         | We need more not-on-demand needs. As in, 'hey, uh, if theres
         | some power left over cuz it's windy and sunny.. no prob! Let me
         | run these ammonia producing machines at full power for a bit.
         | No need for ammonia right now? No problem - compared to
         | electricity, ammonia is vastly simpler to store'.
         | 
         | Ammonia is a great not-on-demand consumer of electricty. That's
         | why this is necessary.
         | 
         | As you said:
         | 
         | > the cost of the green electricity dominates the economics
         | over the process plant CAPEX anyway.
         | 
         | That's exactly the factor that can become ridiculously cheap.
         | It isn't today because there's not much point investing in
         | solar/wind because they do not cover on-demand needs (when it's
         | not particularly sunny/windy, then electricity prices are sky
         | high and you want to build electricity production that can
         | deliver then. And solar/windy by definition can't), and the
         | primary issue is transport.
         | 
         | if the demand for ammonia skyrockets, you can solve it all.
         | Ammonia does not need to be produced on-demand, and you don't
         | need all that much transport (build the ammonia producing plant
         | close to your solar/wind parks).
        
           | pjc50 wrote:
           | > Let me run these ammonia producing machines at full power
           | for a bit.
           | 
           | The problem with this is the capex and running costs of that
           | kind of machinery make it expensive to keep idle. It can be
           | uneconomic even with free electricity.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | Where are the costs. Many factories are only used 8 hours a
             | day despite the high costs - it isn't worth the additional
             | cost to have employees work overnight. Some really energy
             | hungry factories traditionally run only overnight when
             | energy is cheap, and they shutdown for yearly maintenance
             | in December (thus freeing up their normal energy use when
             | everyone is running Christmas lights) Now that wind and
             | solar are coming online those are changing how they work.
             | 
             | Different factories have difference costs. When energy is
             | significant they consider that. When energy is not
             | significant they just run when it works out.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Many factories are only used 8 hours a day despite the
               | high cost_
               | 
               | Is this true in chemicals?
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Which chemical? Some yes, some no. Some processes work
               | better in continue runs, some you are doing batches. Some
               | batches take a few weeks, some are hours...
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Which chemical?_
               | 
               | Any industrially-produced chemical where continuous
               | production is possible. I haven't heard of such systems
               | being competitive if left idle so someone can sleep.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Continuous production implies at least a few people 24x7.
               | Not all chemicals are continuous production. Often there
               | is a choice of processes when you build a factory.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Continuous production implies at least a few people
               | 24x7. Not all chemicals are continuous production_
               | 
               | Yes. I'm asking if there is a chemical-production process
               | that _can_ be run 24 /7 but which isn't due to labour
               | shortages somewhere that doesn't result in such
               | production being shut down (or protected)?
               | 
               | Chemicals are globally-traded commodities. Some are
               | perishable and/or difficult or even illegal to ship. So
               | there is regional price variance. But _ceteris paribus_ ,
               | if it can be run continuously, production will shift to
               | where it is.
        
               | fuzzfactor wrote:
               | Normal operation of ammonia plants and methanol plants
               | has been 24/7 for decades. Most other commodity chemicals
               | too.
               | 
               | Loading & unloading ships & barges as well.
               | 
               | Some places only load railcars & trailers during days.
               | 
               | Also it's common for engineers to only work straight days
               | and often their office is not on site, they actually only
               | make visits. They do it as needed and can be very
               | dedicated and effective, but of course they can't touch
               | anything because that requires a unionized operator.
        
               | HenryBemis wrote:
               | I've worked in two factories in my life. Dairy, and
               | Printing. Dairy was 24/7/365. Printing was (averaging)
               | 20/7/365 (product/layout change, maintenance, cleaning,
               | etc.)
               | 
               | My father was a fireman. Knowing what I know from him, I
               | would never go to work for a factory that they got THOSE
               | massive energy demanding machines that run non-stop and
               | the fuel is ammonia. It is a near-certain death sentence,
               | especially in 'some countries' where safety is 'a bit
               | more relaxed'.
        
               | matwood wrote:
               | > Many factories are only used 8 hours a day despite the
               | high costs
               | 
               | I don't have a lot of direct experience but my dad worked
               | in factories most of my childhood. Every single one ran
               | nearly 24/7. Was that a chance occurrence of the types of
               | factories we had near where I grew up?
        
               | burnished wrote:
               | Are you asking if all factories are like the ones that
               | you grew up near?
               | 
               | My understanding is that manufacturing tends to be the
               | way you describe. I'd be surprised if that held true for
               | all sorts of factories, especially in chemical
               | production. Just a guess but I think paying chemical
               | engineers for overnight shifts might cut into profits
               | somewhat
               | 
               | EDIT: another comment sparked a memory, I'm thinking
               | specifically of batch operators.
        
               | dotancohen wrote:
               | Usually there will be only a single engineer or maybe two
               | on staff for the night shift. But paying regular
               | operating staff an additional 50% night shift bonus to
               | keep the factory running is very often worth the price.
        
               | t-3 wrote:
               | The night shift extra is usually much closer to 50 cents
               | than 50 percent. A lot of places even give the night
               | shift the same pay, especially when the labor market is
               | favorable to employers.
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | Stopping and restarting chemical plants is usually
               | horribly expensive. Most of them run 24/7, non-stop, even
               | if the companies have negative profit on some of the
               | products.
        
               | mcguire wrote:
               | The only confirmed example I know of is Harley-Davidson,
               | roughly during the boom of cruiser motorcycles
               | (1995-2010?): They only ran one shift, but the PR of
               | waiting lists and extremely high instant resale prices
               | made the choice appealing in the face of the capital
               | costs.
        
           | sidewndr46 wrote:
           | Wouldn't this imply that the ammonia consumption would have
           | to be near the solar plant?
        
             | WJW wrote:
             | No? For similar reasons that fossil fuel consumers don't
             | need to be near an oil well.
        
               | sidewndr46 wrote:
               | You'd have to ship the ammonia to the point of use, which
               | is going to be significantly more hazardous
        
               | rjsw wrote:
               | It only needs to be easier to ship than hydrogen.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | You "ship" electricity near a port via the electric grid,
               | and then make ammonia near or in the port. Economies of
               | scale might favor having a few ammonia factories and then
               | shipping it around by boat.
               | 
               | Ammonia makes zero sense as a general use fuel, but ships
               | need MW of power over several days and aren't in
               | populated areas.
               | 
               | Assuming, it's actually viable which isn't guaranteed.
        
               | sidewndr46 wrote:
               | OK, that sounds like a good plan. But that's the opposite
               | of what was proposed further up this thread.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | It depends on whether you prefer to transfer electricity
               | or ammonia. You get to pick whatever is easier, which
               | caps the difficulty at not high. The suggestion of
               | shipping ammonia was for the sake of convenience, not a
               | burden. It's optional.
        
               | sidewndr46 wrote:
               | the actual post I replied to originally said
               | 
               | "build the ammonia producing plant close to your
               | solar/wind parks"
               | 
               | You can't pick that and then decide not to transfer the
               | ammonia and decide not to transfer the electricity.
               | Unless your solar plan is at the loading dock or
               | something.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | The suggestion of shipping ammonia was for the sake of
               | convenience, not a burden. It's optional.
               | 
               | Yes you have to transfer electricity in that case. We
               | already know transferring electricity is easy.
               | 
               | Don't get hung up on "picking" one as if the downsides
               | get locked in at the pre-design phase. If it's difficult
               | to transfer ammonia then nevermind go back to the
               | existing easy option of wires.
               | 
               | In other words, if that specific detail doesn't work out,
               | it is not an argument against ammonia. It was just a
               | potential bonus, not core to the idea. And it doesn't
               | fundamentally change things. It's not the "opposite"
               | plan.
        
               | sidewndr46 wrote:
               | Someone makes a statement. I point out that statement has
               | implications. Someone then suggests an idea that is
               | counter to the original statement. I point out that is
               | inconsistent. Your response is "Don't get hung up on".
               | 
               | Your argument at this point has just devolved into some
               | variant of "don't confuse me with the facts"
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | You said the plan was the opposite, but it was only a
               | tiny optional detail that's opposite.
               | 
               | The phrasing in that comment rejected the original plan
               | _as a whole_ , and that's not right.
               | 
               | Also the comment you called a "good plan" was still
               | talking about shipping ammonia as a maybe! So even in
               | that detail it's not the opposite of the original
               | comment.
               | 
               | I think your first comment was fine, but it's not your
               | first comment that I replied to.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | I wouldn't get that hung up on the specifics when we are
               | using terms like 'near' which is why I said boats for
               | economies of scale.
               | 
               | I was thinking of navigable waterways which are common
               | near major wind farms and some solar, not just major
               | ports which rarely have a lot of space available. The UK
               | is already facing issues with moving offshore wind around
               | the country, an Ammonia plant could theoretically make a
               | lot of sense.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | If ammonia cannot be shipped safely than the whole thing
               | is moot. We're talking about "shipping" ammonia halfway
               | around the world in the fuel tanks of these ammonia
               | fueled ships. If storing it long term in fuel tanks can
               | be done safely, than so can shipping it to port.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | This also means ammonia may end up getting produced at
               | the globally best places, the places where the solar
               | resource is extremely good, like Chile, Namibia, parts of
               | the middle East, then shipping elsewhere.
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | Sunny places with good ports and cheap land.
        
               | WJW wrote:
               | Shipping ammonia is commonly done already. For example,
               | the first few search results for "ammonia tanker" has a
               | story of Maersk ordering up to ten new tankers with 93000
               | cubic metre capacity each.
        
               | ClumsyPilot wrote:
               | This is illogical - we ship a live nuclear reactor around
               | the world in a nuclear carrier or icebreaker. But you
               | cannot take it out and put it on a truck
        
               | burnished wrote:
               | That has more to do with the design of the vessel than
               | anything.
        
           | jandrewrogers wrote:
           | > Ammonia is a great not-on-demand consumer of electricty.
           | 
           | This does not follow. The cost efficiency of ammonia
           | production is highly dependent on the process being
           | continuous and steady state. Every analysis that says ammonia
           | is cost effective as a fuel is based on an efficient
           | continuous process as a cost assumption.
           | 
           | If you are constantly starting and stopping based on
           | electricity availability then your ammonia just became much
           | more expensive. In which case, it is probably no longer cost
           | effective as a fuel. Mixing "best possible price" and "worst
           | possible process" and pretending these represent the same
           | instance of reality is misleading to say the least.
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | > The cost efficiency of ammonia production is highly
             | dependent on the process being continuous and steady state.
             | 
             | Hydrogen is the overwhelming energy input to ammonia
             | production. Hydrogen is readily storable -- this is done
             | even today, when the hydrogen comes from natural gas, to
             | smooth things out to keep the ammonia plant running -- so
             | intermittency of renewables will be almost entirely
             | countered by doing the same thing and storing the green
             | hydrogen.
             | 
             | What matters is cost of electrolysers, but they have been
             | getting very cheap in China.
        
               | jandrewrogers wrote:
               | It is not just the cost of inputs.
               | 
               | Ammonia synthesis is a high-pressure high-temperature
               | process. One of the reasons to use a continuous steady-
               | state process is that cycling it up and down causes
               | thermal and pressure fatigue in the reactor. The safe
               | operating life of a reactor can be surprisingly short if
               | it is not operated at a steady state. If you want this to
               | scale, it needs to be low maintenance and have a long
               | operating life.
               | 
               | You could in principle centralize ammonia production with
               | sufficient reactant reserves to ensure continuous
               | production from variable low-density energy sources like
               | solar or wind. However, this would require hydrogen
               | pipelines that largely don't exist and would take a long
               | time to build. We can't repurpose existing natural gas
               | infrastructure and similar because they weren't built
               | with alloys resistant to hydrogen embrittlement. One of
               | the big economic advantages of using methane for ammonia
               | is that it takes advantage of the millions of kilometers
               | of natural gas distribution pipeline that already exists.
               | 
               | I'm not averse to the idea but the enthusiastic
               | proponents are pretending like the practical realities of
               | industrial chemistry don't apply to them. We aren't going
               | to get to a green future with rainbows and unicorns, we
               | need to brutally realistic about the true requirements.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | I wasn't talking about the cost of inputs, I was talking
               | about their putative intermittency.
               | 
               | The argument that was being made seemed to be "renewables
               | are intermittent, therefore ammonia synthesis based on
               | renewable energy must be intermittent, or else use
               | expensive storage". The counterargument is that hydrogen
               | is the overwhelmingly most important input, and it is
               | highly storable, so the intermittency of the inputs can
               | be largely avoided at modest cost, allowing the ammonia
               | plant to run 24/7.
               | 
               | You may not be aware, but we _already have_ hydrogen
               | pipelines coupled to ammonia plants. The US has ~1000
               | miles of hydrogen pipelines for this purpose. It 's also
               | not obvious to me why pipelines would necessarily be
               | needed. After all, the ammonia plant could be built where
               | the hydrogen is stored.
        
               | 0cf8612b2e1e wrote:
               | Can factories install local battery banks to cover a
               | day's utilization? Charge up the batteries on the cheap
               | electricity during noon and run the plant off of those
               | reserves. I assume other industries are already running
               | these cost optimization analyses as the renewable
               | electricity market continues to develop. There is a
               | balancing point between the capex and opex, but unless it
               | is insanely energy hungry (like aluminum), that seems
               | possible.
        
               | jandrewrogers wrote:
               | > but unless it is insanely energy hungry (like aluminum)
               | 
               | Producing a ton of hydrogen by electrolysis requires ~3x
               | the energy to produce a ton of aluminum. It is, in fact,
               | "insanely energy hungry". This isn't necessarily a
               | problem but it does create logistical challenges.
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | What comes back to the fact that you only need batteries
               | for the ammonia production. Hydrogen production is a low-
               | pressure process, and optionally even low-temperature.
        
               | quickthrowman wrote:
               | It takes 11 MW of electricity to make 1 ton of ammonia,
               | ammonia plants can make 1000 to 3000 tons a day.
               | Providing battery storage for that production rate for 24
               | hours would probably cost more than the plant itself.
        
               | lurk2 wrote:
               | > You could in principle centralize ammonia production
               | with sufficient reactant reserves to ensure continuous
               | production from variable low-density energy sources like
               | solar or wind.
               | 
               | I'm probably missing something here but why would you
               | need to pipe hydrogen to the plant, rather than just
               | generating it on site from power drawn from the grid?
        
               | jandrewrogers wrote:
               | Energy density mostly and being able to deliver that
               | power where you need it. Aluminum plants are co-located
               | with large-scale power plants, famously hydroelectric,
               | for the same reason. Above certain power requirements,
               | you essentially need the power generation to be onsite.
               | 
               | Hydrogen requires 3x the energy of aluminum per ton, so
               | it is an even bigger problem for hydrogen. Unlike
               | aluminum, it is feasible to have large numbers of small
               | hydrogen production plants but then you need to transport
               | all that hydrogen at an acceptable scale.
        
               | lurk2 wrote:
               | > Above certain power requirements, you essentially need
               | the power generation to be onsite.
               | 
               | Is this due to transmission losses or just because you
               | couldn't feasibly build enough capacity cables to
               | transmit large amounts of power over long distances?
        
               | jandrewrogers wrote:
               | A single ton of hydrogen requires ~50 MWh of electricity.
               | Small special-purpose ammonia plants, which are common
               | for some industrial applications, typically require on
               | the order of 50 tons of hydrogen per day. This would
               | require ~2.5 GWh of electricity per day via electrolysis.
               | To put that in context, that is in the same ballpark as
               | the average output of the largest solar farms ever built
               | in the US.
               | 
               | The largest ammonia plant in the US requires around 2,000
               | tons of hydrogen per day. That would require 100 GWh per
               | day to produce by electrolysis, which would require the
               | entire output of a large hydroelectric or nuclear power
               | plant, much like large aluminum refineries. Otherwise,
               | you need to move a lot of electricity or a lot of
               | hydrogen to have good efficiency, and there is
               | infrastructure for neither.
               | 
               | Converting natural gas into hydrogen is also energy
               | intensive. One of the big advantages of natural gas is
               | that your hydrogen source is also your energy source and
               | there is vast infrastructure for moving natural gas
               | around.
               | 
               | Building green hydrogen pipelines likely makes more sense
               | than trying to backhaul electricity from diffuse sources.
               | A single hydrogen pipeline can reify a _lot_ of
               | electricity production without the concomitant
               | transmission and management infrastructure.
        
               | foobarian wrote:
               | A ton of hydrogen seems to occupy a cube with a 23 meter
               | side. Wonder if a bunch of those could be built to hold
               | the excess gas for night time operation.
               | 
               | 100GWh is not small, but it's not impossible. The largest
               | solar farm in operation is 5GW, and that could get you
               | theoretically halfway there operating 10 hours a day.
               | 
               | It feels like the challenges are a lot easier to solve
               | than with fusion or nuclear.
        
               | lurk2 wrote:
               | The issue doesn't appear to be storage, but transmission.
               | Hydrogen can leak through metal and lead to it becoming
               | brittle, so you can't use conventional natural gas
               | pipelines to transport it.
        
               | foobarian wrote:
               | Exactly, these tanks can be giant balloons right next to
               | the solar panels all feeding the in-situ ammonia plant.
        
               | lurk2 wrote:
               | That was my thinking, but I think what he is saying is
               | that power plants won't generate enough electricity to
               | make building an in-situ ammonia plant economical. You
               | need to network power plants together to operate a
               | centralized ammonia plant 24/7, and the network to move
               | this energy (whether in the form of hydrogen or
               | electricity) doesn't currently exist.
        
               | foobarian wrote:
               | The land area of an all-in-one plant is maybe the biggest
               | unknown for me with respect to just getting ownership and
               | permits and such. But it's fun to imagine just picking a
               | giant plot somewhere in the desert and plopping down 20
               | GW of solar panels, enough hydrogen storage to keep the
               | less energy intensive steps operating throughout the
               | night, and presumably batteries for whatever still
               | requires electric power while panels are offline. Water
               | and air in, sweet sweet ammonia out. :-)
               | 
               | Cloudy weather would be an interesting problem I guess.
        
               | jandrewrogers wrote:
               | It is doable in theory but would require the construction
               | of large-scale supporting infrastructure that currently
               | doesn't exist. I am not optimistic about our ability to
               | undertake infrastructure projects of this magnitude
               | without it taking several decades and incurring obscene
               | cost overruns that make even the most pessimistic
               | economic models look optimistic.
               | 
               | This will definitely be harder than nuclear. The
               | expansive land use requirements means the legal battles
               | pertaining to that would almost certainly span many
               | decades. At least with nuclear there is a limited number
               | of people that need to sign-off to have a viable project
               | -- reforming that process probably would be simpler.
        
               | TylerE wrote:
               | I can't imagine it wouldn't be stored either as liquid or
               | at least pressurized.
               | 
               | Steam has something like 200x the volume of the water
               | it's boiled from.
        
               | TylerE wrote:
               | One thing you can do there is have an onsite energy
               | storage mechanism (battery, gravity, etc) and run the
               | process 24/7, keeping the energy storage topped up
               | whenever the cost of electricity falls below whatever
               | threshold.
               | 
               | Worst comes to worse you run on grid for a few hours.
        
               | joshuanapoli wrote:
               | Liquid ammonia takes less energy and volume than
               | liquifying hydrogen.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | This has nothing to do with hydrogen as an input to the
               | ammonia production process. This hydrogen is not
               | liquefied, even if it is temporarily stored (as a
               | compressed gas, for example underground in solution mined
               | salt caverns.)
        
           | kragen wrote:
           | Do you have concrete capex and opex numbers for ammonia-from-
           | electricity plants? I understand we should expect those to go
           | down over time because of the learning curve, but I don't
           | even know their order of magnitude right now. It would also
           | be nice to have an idea of how much efficiency the
           | electrolyzers lose when operated intermittently instead of
           | continuously (so, for example, you can't keep them at their
           | optimal temperature). But, since we're presupposing that
           | intermittent electrical energy will be very cheap, efficiency
           | is less important than capex per output and non-energy opex.
           | 
           | Supporting your point about solar panels continuing to be
           | cheap, "mainstream" panels went up to 0.11EUR per peak watt
           | last month: https://www.solarserver.de/photovoltaik-preis-pv-
           | modul-preis... which was a new historic low price in
           | September and down 21% from 0.14EUR/Wp in February of last
           | year, itself a historic record low price at the beginning of
           | last year.
           | 
           | The last time something like this happened to the energy
           | supply, it was James Watt's steam-engine.
        
           | xhkkffbf wrote:
           | What are the relative costs of producing methanol or ammonia
           | from a kilowatt hour of electricity? I've always assumed
           | methanol would be cheaper over all because it's less deadly.
        
           | guerrilla wrote:
           | We're already doing this with methanol in Sweeen though. So
           | what's the point?
        
         | pjc50 wrote:
         | Short distance electric shipping seems the most feasible.
         | Scotland is making steps in this direction.
         | https://www.offshore-energy.biz/scotland-to-buy-seven-electr...
         | 
         | Long distance .. this is just a problem. As you say it won't be
         | solved unless there's carbon pricing and ultimately
         | restrictions on fossil fuels in general, forcing a replacement
         | with more expensive synthetic and bio-fuels.
        
           | jillesvangurp wrote:
           | I think long distance might be solvable too with a little out
           | of the box thinking. Imagine ships could swap out batteries
           | every few hundred miles. Think simple container batteries and
           | some off shore wind park with facilities for charging
           | container batteries and a stash of charged batteries.
           | Floating off shore wind is now possible as well.
           | 
           | Containers might be a bit tedious for this. So, why not use
           | autonomous tug boats and barges. The tug boats simply pull
           | the load between charging stations. When they are empty they
           | head for a charger and a full one takes over. This could even
           | work with existing ships, which are commonly maneuvered
           | around harbors using tug boats already.
           | 
           | Probably more than a few engineering challenges lurking here
           | but it gets us out of the mindset that ships must be able to
           | go for thousands of nautical miles without stopping for
           | charging. I could see that working for a lot of coastal
           | shipping routes.
        
             | pjc50 wrote:
             | Container batteries already seem to be a thing:
             | https://www.offshore-energy.biz/worlds-first-700-teu-pure-
             | ba...
             | 
             | .. but again for relatively short distances. You do _not_
             | want to have relatively unskilled personnel attempting
             | swaps at sea, or in bad weather (which is also very
             | dangerous for ships under tow).
             | 
             | The China-EU distance is about 24,000km. I don't think more
             | than one or two charging/swap stops are feasible on that
             | route, so you're going to need something with 10,000km
             | range at the very least.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | China-EU can follow the coast. It isn't unreasonable to
               | just stop at a port every night. You can put the crew up
               | in a hotel thus saving needing beds for everyone, and
               | they can enjoy whatever meals they want. This will make
               | the trip take 3x longer though, which is a very
               | significant disadvantage, but if electric energy is
               | enough cheaper they will go for it. Most things going via
               | sea are not time sensitive, but the crew still needs to
               | be paid along with the ship mortgage. China-US could do
               | the same, but the trip is about 10x longer (I didn't
               | bother to look this up) - even with free electric I'm not
               | sure if it is worth it.
               | 
               | There are islands like Hawaii where the above is not
               | possible though so we still need something else.
        
               | leoedin wrote:
               | > It isn't unreasonable to just stop at a port every
               | night
               | 
               | Is it? How many more deep water ports would be needed if
               | every ship had to stop every night? What about if you're
               | passing hostile or undeveloped countries? What about when
               | you need to cross the Pacific or Atlantic? Cargo ships
               | move at maybe 15mph - there's definitely huge parts of
               | the world that don't have a well equipped deep water port
               | every 360 miles. Even major western countries only have a
               | handful of major ports.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | I didn't say it was easy. Undeveloped countries would
               | mostly welcome a chance for someone else to develop
               | energy and port infrastructure. Hostile is a different
               | issue, but you can bypass them as needed. (ships already
               | pass by hostile countries)
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _It isn 't unreasonable to just stop at a port every
               | night_
               | 
               | You're describing coaling stations [1]. They worked in
               | the era of empires (one government controls the coaling
               | network) and no other options. They're uncompetitive
               | today.
               | 
               | Any energy system requiring them will not be competitive
               | against direct-sail systems. You're paying for the crew
               | and ship's deterioration with every delay.
               | 
               | [1] https://www.britannica.com/topic/coaling-station
        
         | jillesvangurp wrote:
         | Cost is indeed the core issue. It's an issue with most
         | synthetic fuels and it's not an issue that is likely to go
         | away. As long as that means you have to pay a steep premium to
         | be green, it's not going to be popular. International agreement
         | on carbon taxes is unlikely. And most ships operate in
         | international waters under the flags of countries with
         | favorable taxes and rules (e.g. Panama, Greece, etc.).
         | 
         | With shipping, shooting for perfect is really expensive. But
         | we're starting with a status quo that is really bad that can be
         | improved upon.
         | 
         | For example, most ships are made out of steel. Steel is
         | relatively heavy. There's a ship yard in Tasmania working on a
         | battery electric 300meter long ferry made out of aluminum.
         | They've built dozens of aluminum ships already. Aluminum is
         | much lighter than steel and that cuts the amount of energy
         | needed to move it around by about half. That's nice because
         | batteries are expensive and don't provide a lot of range. But
         | making ferries out of aluminum is of course something that
         | could work for any kind of ship.
         | 
         | Fuel is really expensive. 50% fuel savings are very attractive
         | to ship operators. Most ships burn bunker fuel. That's properly
         | nasty stuff. So using only half of that would be an
         | improvement. It's toxic, causes lots of pollution and is nasty
         | if it gets in the water. Some cruise ships run on LNG these
         | days. Much cleaner but it takes up space. Those ships are
         | mostly still made out of steel. If you make them out of
         | aluminum, they'd be a lot lighter probably and use less fuel.
         | So smaller LNG tanks, less CO2 emitted, and more space for the
         | passengers. Win win.
         | 
         | There are also some interesting things happening with
         | composites and carbon fiber. That stuff is even lighter and
         | there are some companies focusing on marine applications as
         | well. So, we could cut weight and fuel usage of ships by using
         | modern/different materials.
         | 
         | There are some experiments happening with using sails on ships
         | to cut fuel usage further. If you add all this up, we could be
         | cutting fuel usage significantly (40-70%) and make the
         | emissions problem a lot smaller. And unlike synthetic fuels,
         | this also translates into financial savings. So that means it's
         | more likely to happen.
         | 
         | And if we eventually put batteries in these ships, they'll go a
         | bit further as well.
         | 
         | It's not perfect. But probably a lot better.
        
           | pjc50 wrote:
           | > Aluminum is much lighter than steel and that cuts the
           | amount of energy needed to move it around by about half.
           | 
           | Hmm. I'm suspicious about this - might be true for cars,
           | definitely true for planes, but ships sit at neutral
           | buoyancy, most of the mass is cargo, and the main component
           | of energy expenditure is actually drag. So there's
           | significant benefits to low drag hull designs or "slow
           | steaming", but the actual ship material isn't terribly high
           | up on the priority list. And aluminium is way more expensive.
        
             | kragen wrote:
             | I think aluminum is mostly more expensive than steel
             | because energy is expensive, but solar energy makes energy
             | cheap.
             | 
             | If a ship's mass were mostly ship rather than mostly cargo,
             | making it out of a heavier material would increase its
             | water displacement, which would increase its drag. I don't
             | know if that's a proportional effect; I think it's actually
             | sublinear. But, since most of the mass is cargo, it won't
             | make much of a difference.
             | 
             | If most of the mass _weren 't_ cargo, you could ship things
             | more cheaply by sealing the cargo in giant plastic bags and
             | towing it across the ocean behind a tugboat.
        
               | throwup238 wrote:
               | Both steel and aluminum production depend mostly on the
               | cost of energy, so any improvements that would make
               | aluminum cheaper would also make steel cheaper. Steel
               | also has the benefit of being ferromagnetic so it's a lot
               | cheaper to pull scrap steel out of the garbage stream and
               | recycle it, but that depends on having lots of scrap
               | steel to begin with.
               | 
               | There's really not a lot of room to make aluminum as
               | cheap as steel, as all economies of scale have by now
               | been mostly realized. The cost of energy is so dominant
               | that it makes sense to run smelting plants idle most of
               | the time with the crucible heated constantly just to take
               | advantage of negative power prices (although there are
               | other factors at play like subsidies and national
               | security concerns).
               | 
               | Barring some sort of seismic scientific breakthrough in
               | metallurgy, the current ratio of 2-3x the cost of steel
               | is here to stay. There's maybe a little room if we reach
               | "peak aluminum" as the fraction of recycled scrap
               | approaches 100%, but I don't think that would make that
               | much of a difference because we're likely to hit "peak
               | steel" before then (and again, its just easier to recycle
               | from a logistics standpoint).
        
               | kragen wrote:
               | Hmm, really? I didn't realize that. Thank you!
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | aluminum has terrible metal fatigue issues. Ships that have
           | been perfectly fine for years will suddenly just fall into
           | pieces. Trucks where weight matter do often use aluminum
           | trailers, but they keep careful track so they are scrapped
           | before they fall apart. This fall about is not something an
           | inspection will catch (not 100% true, ultrasound and other
           | inspection methods will catch some of this, but for
           | discussion it is close enough to say you just scrap aluminum
           | before it fails instead of inspecting)
           | 
           | That isn't to say aluminum can't be used for ships. Only that
           | it is tricky.
        
             | jillesvangurp wrote:
             | There are different alloys of aluminum with different
             | properties. Just like steel. And of course it's been used
             | in the aviation industry for a long time as well. Car
             | manufacturers are using aluminum castings in cars these
             | days. And there are engine blocks made out of aluminum as
             | well.
             | 
             | Anyway, this is the ship yard I mentioned. They have a few
             | decades experience making ships out of aluminum:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incat
        
               | AceyMan wrote:
               | As I understand it, the gotcha with aluminum is: there is
               | no such thing as non-fatiguing stress -- whereas, say,
               | steels, have a range of elasticity where it can operate
               | and not lose strength (or get cold-work hardened).
               | 
               | With aluminum, any flexion -- no matter how little --
               | marginally reduces the strength of the material. Ergo,
               | even under ideal conditions it's saddled with a limited
               | service life.
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | You just design it so the stress in the material gives a
               | very long fatigue life (as in, how many zeros do you
               | want?). It doesn't have a defined "fatigue limit", but it
               | may as well have.
        
           | LgWoodenBadger wrote:
           | I don't understand how an aluminum structure can withstand
           | the stresses in bulk-oriented ships without fatiguing to
           | destruction in the first rough weather.
        
             | HPsquared wrote:
             | You make it thick enough so the material isn't stressed.
             | This does require rigorous engineering processes, but it's
             | pretty common.
        
         | scythe wrote:
         | >Unlike solar cells or battery cells, I don't really see much
         | chance for 'learning rates' and technology improvement to
         | drastically drive down the cost of green ammonia. Falling
         | electrolyser costs are nice, but they're only a portion of the
         | process plant CAPEX, and the cost of the green electricity
         | dominates the economics over the process plant CAPEX anyway.
         | You could get electrolysers for free and still be unable to
         | make cheap green ammonia. So for green ammonia to get adopted,
         | a strong 'carbon price' needs to be in place, and I think that
         | same strong carbon price would make biodiesel competitive.
         | 
         | There is a ton of research going into improving the efficiency
         | of the H2 > NH3 conversion, and there are at least two startups
         | (Tsubame in Japan and a new one I don't remember). There's no
         | rule that says you can't beat Haber.
         | 
         | Compared to methanol, ammonia is currently more expensive but
         | vastly more scalable in the long run; once you reach the
         | biofuel "ceiling" (roughly corresponding to the availability of
         | farming and forestry byproducts) you're stuck making it via
         | carbon capture, which has its own efficiency problems.
        
           | kragen wrote:
           | By "efficiency" do you mean energy consumption or hydrogen
           | consumption?
        
             | scythe wrote:
             | Energy consumption. I am pretty sure that the hydrogen
             | utilization in most ammonia production is very high.
             | 
             | In theory the energy required to produce ammonia is
             | negative (Hf < 0) but at standard pressure its formation is
             | thermodynamically unfavorable (Gf = Hf + TdeltaS > 0). But
             | the bigger issue is the very high activation energy barrier
             | for ammonia synthesis, which results in a lot of energy
             | being used to make ammonia at very high pressure and
             | temperature.
             | 
             | Right now there are two competing approaches to reducing
             | the cost of ammonia production. Tsubame is using a new
             | ruthenium-based catalyst that lowers the reaction
             | temperature (and therefore, also the pressure). The other
             | method is by electrocatalysis. I don't know for sure that
             | this is what NitroVolt is doing but their name certainly
             | suggests it.
        
               | kragen wrote:
               | Thank you!
               | 
               | Presumably if you had some way of rapidly removing the
               | ammonia produced from the reaction, like maybe a high-
               | temperature highly polar solvent that reacted reversibly
               | with the ammonia, but didn't dissolve much hydrogen or
               | nitrogen, you could get by with a lower equilibrium
               | amount of ammonia and thus much lower pressure. Anhydrous
               | phosphoric acid seems like a potential candidate? But
               | that's obvious enough that people probably tried it a
               | century ago.
        
         | Anduia wrote:
         | That linkedin post seems AI generated, got a better source?
        
         | jgraham wrote:
         | Note that biofuels aren't especially environmentally friendly,
         | even just considering carbon emissions. See e.g. [1], which
         | makes the most optimistic possible assumption by ignoring land
         | use changes and still concludes "the reductions for most
         | feedstocks are insufficient to meet the GHG savings required by
         | the EU Renewable Energy Directive" (second generation biofuels
         | may do better, but that isn't clear). Also ignoring land use
         | changes is a very bad asssumption; if your plan is to run
         | global shipping (or other industries) on biofuels it seems
         | highly implausible that it's not going to end up with more land
         | overall used for growing crops. If that's land that could
         | otherwise be sequestering carbon (e.g. drained peat bogs, which
         | have the advantage of being highly fertile), then it's clearly
         | going to be a significant contribution to carbon emissions (not
         | to mention the ecological impacts of converting yet more land
         | to agriculture).
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2020.035...
        
         | kragen wrote:
         | > _Unlike solar cells or battery cells, I don 't really see
         | much chance for 'learning rates' and technology improvement to
         | drastically drive down the cost of green ammonia. Falling
         | electrolyser costs are nice, but they're only a portion of the
         | process plant CAPEX, and the cost of the green electricity
         | dominates the economics over the process plant CAPEX anyway.
         | (...) So for green ammonia to get adopted, a strong 'carbon
         | price' needs to be in place, and I think that same strong
         | carbon price would make biodiesel competitive._
         | 
         | You seem to be contradicting yourself here? If learning rates
         | and technology improvement drastically drive down the cost of
         | solar cells, as you say they might, and the cost of electricity
         | dominates the cost of green ammonia, as you say it does,
         | doesn't that mean that the learning rates and technology
         | improvement in solar cells will drastically drive down the cost
         | of green ammonia? Wouldn't that make ammonia much cheaper than
         | biodiesel, keeping biodiesel from being competitive?
         | 
         | (I'm not sure ammonia is a competitive fuel for other reasons,
         | such as the corrosion and safety issues discussed in the
         | article, but it seems clear to me that if it's going to be
         | uncompetitively _expensive_ , it would have to be because one
         | of the premises above is wrong, for example because the cost of
         | green ammonia is dominated by capex or because solar cells stop
         | dropping in cost. I don't see how you can sustain those
         | premises and deny the conclusion.)
        
         | whatever1 wrote:
         | At this risk envelope I don't see why nuclear / battery hybrids
         | are not a serious contender. We can for example have them work
         | on purely electric mode when close to ports and then enable the
         | reactor in the open sea.
         | 
         | We do something similar with bunker fuel of different grades.
         | They are forced to use the good stuff near the ports and once
         | in the open sea they start burning the muddy Godzilla.
        
       | ZeroGravitas wrote:
       | Ammonia tankers seem a good test bed for this tech as they
       | already carry Ammonia and dock in places that handle it.
       | 
       | Other fuel cell based technologies seem to be working on scaling
       | up, they can supplement electrical generation for crew before
       | working with the existing generators with the aim to eventually
       | replace them.
       | 
       | Like trains, ships get technical benefits from being hybrid. This
       | makes it relatively easy then to be made more hybrid, plug into
       | shore power when available, add some batteries and, solar panels
       | etc.
       | 
       | There's no one easy fix but lots of little ones. The most
       | interesting one I saw discussed is contracts that share the blame
       | when delays happen. Previously ships would race to their
       | destination and then wait around because if they missed a
       | connection they would be held responsible. Now they can all go at
       | slower, more efficient just-in-time speeds and the costs of the
       | occasional missed deadline are amortized. With fuel savings they
       | all come out ahead so it's a win-win.
        
       | SamPatt wrote:
       | >"Twenty or thirty years ago, the shipping industry made a major
       | shift to natural gas, believing it was the fuel of the future.
       | Now, we know it wasn't the right step," says Prousalidis.
       | 
       | This sentence confuses me. The shipping industry runs on natural
       | gas? If so, why is there regret? My impression is that most
       | systems using natural gas right now are in a good position.
       | 
       | What am I missing here?
        
         | sidewndr46 wrote:
         | Almost all shipping by weight is done by burning bunker. By
         | ship quantity, most ships probably actually just burn some
         | variant of diesel. Some do run off natural gas.
         | 
         | If you read through industry journals, you can find some point
         | in the late 80s where the industry journals were all reporting
         | about how all ships would need to go back to burning coal soon.
         | I'm pretty sure this was just a fantasy that shipbuilders paid
         | the journals to push as it would mean the opportunity to sell
         | lots of new ships.
         | 
         | I doubt the statement you quoted is grounded in any reality.
        
           | dredmorbius wrote:
           | I'd thought that several notable ships had been refitted to
           | burn petrol, though I can't find the references I'd had in
           | mind.
           | 
           | (I'd think that petrol itself would be a less desirable fuel
           | for some of the same reasons as ammonia: it's heavier-than
           | air, sinks, and burns rapidly or explodes when vapours
           | combine with air.)
        
         | looofooo0 wrote:
         | Batteries are most likely the most feasible option for many
         | applications soon.
        
         | iamthemonster wrote:
         | Liquefied Natural Gas was expected to be a lower-emission
         | alternative fuel compared to bunker fuel.
         | 
         | The proportion of LNG fuelled cargo tankers out there right now
         | is about 2% but for new orders, about 30% of them are LNG
         | fuelled so that small percentage will grow rapidly.
         | 
         | However, for United States LNG in particular, the LNG
         | production chain actually has very high emissions of methane.
         | The industry has been fighting to keep that as unclear and
         | unquantified as absolutely possible, and there's a good reason
         | for that - when you take into account the methane emissions
         | along the whole value chain from drilling through liquefaction,
         | LNG's climate impact (in terms of global warming) is no better
         | than coal. I'm sure it's beneficial compared to bunker fuel,
         | but the climate benefit is much much slimmer than first
         | believed.
        
           | Telemakhos wrote:
           | > However, for United States LNG in particular, the LNG
           | production chain actually has very high emissions of methane.
           | 
           | I thought LNG _was_ methane. What am I missing here?
        
             | ethangk wrote:
             | I'd assume they're talking about methane leaks throughout
             | the supply chain
        
             | XorNot wrote:
             | No you've got the gist of it: the point is that numbers for
             | CO2 emissions of LNG assume a leak-free supply chain.
             | 
             | That's not possible in practice: LNG leaks at almost every
             | single step, and monitoring of it has been inconsistent and
             | poorly implemented. Add in the significantly higher
             | greenhouse effect of methane in the atmosphere, and you
             | lose essentially _all_ the potential benefits (not to
             | mention the ultimate issue of continuing to add sequestered
             | CO2 back into the atmosphere - it 's still a fossil fuel).
        
             | gwbas1c wrote:
             | Methane leaks. Unburnt methane has a global warming
             | potential 28 times higher than CO2. (This is why landfills
             | will burn methane buildup, even if they aren't using it to
             | generate electricity or capturing it to resell.)
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | NASA has been showing methane leaks from satellites built for
           | purpose.[0] I'll give you three guesses as to where the
           | location of the leaks are located, but you'll only need one.
           | 
           | Better read the data now before it gets stricken from the
           | record.
           | 
           | [0] https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/jpl/methane-
           | supe...
        
             | _aavaa_ wrote:
             | Except most emissions are not _leaks_. A leak implies an
             | unintended or unwanted behaviour. But most emissions are
             | from indented behaviour of the system. The equipment is.
             | designed to vent to atmosphere as part of normal operation,
             | and it's not worth it for them to burn it until they have
             | to pay for this pollution.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | I see you and I have a difference of what we consider a
               | leak. You seem to only consider it a leak in the
               | equipment being used. I consider it when humans punch a
               | hole in the ground and the gas is released by that human
               | activity.
        
               | lurk2 wrote:
               | [flagged]
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | I'm not being obtuse at all. That methane would not be
               | leaking in these locations if humans did not attempt to
               | extract it. Regardless if the leaks from faulty plumbing
               | or just not making the hole the right way so the methane
               | in the air is a direct result of that human activity, it
               | is still methane leaking into the air
        
               | lurk2 wrote:
               | No ordinary person would interpret your original comment
               | this way. _aavaa_ was correct: "A leak implies an
               | unintended or unwanted behaviour."
               | 
               | If producers are intentionally venting off the methane,
               | it isn't leaking, it's being released.
               | 
               | > A leak is a way (usually an opening) for fluid to
               | escape a container or fluid-containing system, such as a
               | tank or a ship's hull, through which the contents of the
               | container can escape or outside matter can enter the
               | container. Leaks are usually unintended and therefore
               | undesired.
               | 
               | https://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leak
        
             | p1mrx wrote:
             | > I'll give you three guesses as to where the location of
             | the leaks are located, but you'll only need one.
             | 
             | Were we supposed to guess New Mexico, Turkmenistan, and
             | Iran, or am I missing something?
        
               | dredmorbius wrote:
               | Firstly, drilling / wellhead operations.
               | 
               | 2nd 'graph of the linked article:
               | 
               |  _In the data EMIT has collected since being installed on
               | the International Space Station in July, the science team
               | has identified more than 50 "super-emitters" in Central
               | Asia, the Middle East, and the Southwestern United
               | States. Super-emitters are facilities, equipment, and
               | other infrastructure, typically in the fossil-fuel,
               | waste, or agriculture sectors, that emit methane at high
               | rates._
               | 
               | <https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/jpl/methane-
               | supe...>
        
           | Dylan16807 wrote:
           | > LNG's climate impact (in terms of global warming) is no
           | better than coal. I'm sure it's beneficial compared to bunker
           | fuel,
           | 
           | Why are you sure of that?
           | 
           | Oils release an amount of CO2 that's midway between natural
           | gas and coal. So unless bunker fuel is causing some other big
           | release of greenhouse gasses, if natural gas is near coal
           | then it's worse than bunker fuel.
           | 
           | On top of that, doesn't the sulfur pollution from bunker fuel
           | have a cooling effect?
        
             | iamthemonster wrote:
             | Hmm maybe I shouldn't be so sure of myself then. The
             | comparison between LNG and coal that I was referencing was
             | the comparison between coal and LNG's lifecycle emissions
             | on the basis of like-for-like electricity generation (so it
             | was slightly apples&oranges for me to say that).
             | 
             | I'd assumed that a main engine's efficiency with bunker
             | fuel was awful and with LNG was much better, meaning LNG
             | had emissions as a shipping fuel.
             | 
             | But I think taking into account the methane emissions of
             | upstream production (which varies incredibly wildly
             | depending on the production environment) LNG from most of
             | the world (particularly the USA) will be a worse shipping
             | fuel on a global warming basis than bunker fuel.
             | 
             | Thanks for picking that up.
             | 
             | The cooling effect of sulphur dioxide emissions (which make
             | sulphates in the atmosphere) is a whole Pandora's box that
             | I'm unqualified to open but yes, there's a significant
             | cooling effect from the SO2 emissions of bunker fuel and
             | the 2020 rules change on VLSFO dramatically slashed the
             | shipping industry's SO2 emissions (noting that SO2
             | emissions have also been falling across the board, and
             | shipping is only one component of that).
             | https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/sulfur-dioxide-
             | emis...
        
         | pjc50 wrote:
         | The shipping industry only ever dipped slightly into natural
         | gas. There are some CNG/LNG ferries around, but all the long
         | haul stuff in international waters (which is basically lawless)
         | uses bunker fuel.
        
         | hannob wrote:
         | > What am I missing here?
         | 
         | Climate change. Maybe you've heard of it?
         | 
         | (And it turns out things with LNG ships are much worse than
         | previously believed. They not only emit CO2 - a bit less than
         | traditional bunker fuel, but not much - they also emit methane,
         | and in no small quantities. The LNG industry likes to pretend
         | that these emissions are small and neglegible, but whenever
         | someone goes out and actually measures them, they are
         | substantial.)
        
         | xandrius wrote:
         | Natural gas, aka methane, has a big impact on climate change.
         | Don't listen what the gas industry is trying to get everyone to
         | believe, natural gas is as natural as petroil.
        
       | keepamovin wrote:
       | I misread, and really hoped, it was "first ammonia-fueled sheep
       | hits a snag." Boy that was gonna be a fascinating article!
       | 
       | Still read this one though probably, seems interesting.
        
       | caycep wrote:
       | Ammonia...this ship could be run on poop...
        
         | wpollock wrote:
         | Bad news, men. The captain says we're behind schedule so beans
         | for supper again!
        
         | npteljes wrote:
         | Ammonia is in peepee, not poopoo. Maybe you are thinking
         | methane, which is present in farts.
        
       | cratermoon wrote:
       | Reading about ammonia as a ship fuel gives me strong _Ignition!_
       | vibes. For those not familiar, _Ignition!: An Informal History of
       | Liquid Rocket Propellants_ by John Drury Clark goes into detail
       | about all the different things aerospace engineers have tried,
       | including some incredibly dangerous combinations. The conclusion
       | for many of the tests is usually along this lines of  "this makes
       | a very powerful, lightweight rocket, but the tendency towards
       | disastrous results makes it impractical".
        
       | jnmandal wrote:
       | Isn't the energy return on investment for this extremely low
       | and/or negative? Am I missing something here?
        
         | api wrote:
         | It's a way of storing energy. You use solar, nuclear, wind,
         | etc. to make ammonia.
        
           | jnmandal wrote:
           | I get that but isn't it like 100x more efficient to be
           | storing that energy to offset intermittency/base power or
           | selling that ammonium as fertilizer to offset hydrocarbon-
           | based haber bosch ferts?
        
             | api wrote:
             | There are more efficient ways, but batteries are heavy and
             | still not as compact as liquid fuels. If you want to run
             | ships on non-carbon-based energy making a liquid fuel is
             | one way that can work today.
        
       | lupusreal wrote:
       | It doesn't seem like a great idea to use what is essentially
       | fertilizer as a fuel. Surely this new demand will drive up the
       | price of fertilizer.
        
         | p1mrx wrote:
         | The idea is to make ammonia from electricity. If this scales
         | up, it could lead to electric fertilizer, and greatly reduce
         | agricultural carbon emissions.
        
         | NotYourLawyer wrote:
         | Maybe. But longer term, new uses for ammonia might well lead to
         | more efficient and widespread production.
        
           | lupusreal wrote:
           | Ammonia is not some obscure chemical until now neglected by
           | science and industry, the problem of producing ammonia has
           | already received the attention of several generations of the
           | greatest minds humanity has. Adding yet more commercial
           | demand for what is already _very much_ in demand isn 't going
           | to help in any meaningful way. It's just going to drive up
           | the price of fertilizer, and therefore the price of food.
           | 
           | As for doing it with electricity; that will never be more
           | cost effective than doing it with natural gas. If you want to
           | reduce carbon emissions, turn your attention to other
           | industries. Fucking with the global food supply is the _last_
           | thing anybody should be doing.
        
             | mulmen wrote:
             | > the problem of producing ammonia has already received the
             | attention of several generations of the greatest minds
             | humanity has.
             | 
             | Sure but they were working with the constraints of the
             | times. Renewable electricity generation doesn't have the
             | same level of maturity and it's already surpassing fossil
             | options with tons of room to scale.
             | 
             | > that will never be more cost effective than doing it with
             | natural gas.
             | 
             | We have an effectively infinite supply of electricity but a
             | finite supply of natural gas. The trends are clear.
             | Electricity is going to continue to get cheaper essentially
             | forever and fossil fuels will continue to become more
             | scarce and thus expensive until it's not economical to use
             | them.
             | 
             | You just have to draw the timeline long enough and
             | electricity becomes the cheaper option for ammonium
             | production and renewable electricity becomes the cheapest
             | electricity source.
             | 
             | > Fucking with the global food supply is the last thing
             | anybody should be doing.
             | 
             | Ammonia prices don't have to go up if demand goes up. Price
             | increases are only one possible outcome of an increase in
             | demand. The other option is an increase in supply. With
             | sufficiently cheap electricity everything becomes
             | affordable. When we deplete natural gas supplies ammonia
             | will get more expensive.
             | 
             | Food will also cost a lot more when farmland gets too hot
             | to be productive.
             | 
             | The last thing anyone should be doing is betting the food
             | supply on scarce fossil fuel sources.
        
       | newsclues wrote:
       | Anything to avoid banning bunker fuel, and forcing ship owners to
       | spend more for diesel which is cleaner.
        
       | shallichange wrote:
       | Why not sails? Wind. That stuff
        
         | mulmen wrote:
         | They'd have to be huge and also need to get out of the way of
         | overhead cranes. There's some work being done in that direction
         | but it's never going to be a complete solution.
        
       | cyberax wrote:
       | I never understood why shipping decided to deal with ammonia
       | nonsense. It's dead-on-arrival, due to the complexity and danger
       | of it.
       | 
       | We already have a workable solution: liquid methane. It can be
       | synthesized from captured CO2 about as cheaply as ammonia, and we
       | can just use the fossil methane as a bridge for now. More
       | importantly, there are whole fleets of methane-powered ships now.
       | 
       | Methane has a higher global warming potential, but only if it
       | leaks. And this can be minimized, especially once fossil fuel
       | mining is phased out.
        
       | senectus1 wrote:
       | _first_ ?
       | 
       | https://zero.fortescue.com/en/case-studies/green-pioneer
       | 
       | I dont think so.
        
       | londons_explore wrote:
       | > partnership restarted the project with a specially made gas
       | turbine designed to run on ammonia.
       | 
       | And that gas turbine can also run on many other fuels - LPG, LNG,
       | gasoline, diesel, etc.
       | 
       | My guess is this ship will do 1 run on ammonia for the press
       | release, and then will run on LPG for the rest of its life for
       | economic reasons. The original fuel cell design is far more picky
       | about fuel sources and therefore wouldn't have had that
       | possibility.
        
       | WhatsTheBigIdea wrote:
       | Alternative fuel? yes.
       | 
       | Greenhouse gas solution? no.
       | 
       | Ammonia will (and does) leak into the environment where it
       | becomes a part of the natural nitrogen cycle. The end result of
       | the natural nitrogen cycle is N2O (aka laughing gas) which is a
       | greenhouse gas 250-350x more powerful than CO2.
       | 
       | Running the world on ammonia, even if logistically possible, will
       | likely accelerate climate change, not slow it.
        
       | LargoLasskhyfv wrote:
       | Meanwhile:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacques_Saad%C3%A9-class_conta...
       | <- CMA-CGM LNG-powered
       | 
       | https://www.cma-cgm.com/news/5012/maiden-call-of-cma-cgm-iro...
       | 
       | Ammonia too complicated?
        
       | giantg2 wrote:
       | Interesting. This one says it's a gas turbine, but other articles
       | I've seen say there's also two stroke engines for shipping. I was
       | wondering how this would be petroleum free as a 2 stroke. It
       | makes sense that the turbine could be with sealed bearings.
        
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