[HN Gopher] Layoffs Don't Work
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Layoffs Don't Work
        
       Author : indigoabstract
       Score  : 285 points
       Date   : 2025-03-09 10:07 UTC (11 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (thehustle.co)
 (TXT) w3m dump (thehustle.co)
        
       | RicoElectrico wrote:
       | The other question is why C-suite does even need to tell the
       | respective division management to lay off employees if the actual
       | goal is cost reduction. Shouldn't they impose a budget reduction
       | target instead and trust them to allocate the savings between
       | capex, opex and salary budget according to specific situation at
       | hand?
        
         | wffurr wrote:
         | >> why C-suite does even need to tell the respective division
         | management to lay off employees if _the actual goal is cost
         | reduction_
         | 
         | You answered your own question. For a lot of layoffs, cost
         | reduction isn't the goal; it's disciplining the workforce who
         | were increasingly assertive at work about direction and
         | conditions.
        
           | dartos wrote:
           | It's honestly probably not that evil.(generally. There are
           | definitely evil orgs out there)
           | 
           | It's just the easiest way to make the stock price go up.
           | 
           | Layoffs caused twitter to bump in price. Same with Microsoft
           | when they laid off all those game devs.
           | 
           | C-suite don't care about profit or losses in tech, just the
           | stock price.
           | 
           | In the 2010s, hiring devs increased stock prices. In the
           | 2020s mass firings do.
           | 
           | It's just money. Simple as.
        
             | slappyham wrote:
             | "It's just money."
             | 
             | And real people with real lives and families and steadily-
             | increasing expenses. Fuck you, "it's just money"...
        
         | michaelt wrote:
         | The C suite wants to take the blame, so the people you deal
         | with face to face can honestly say the decision was taken out
         | of their hands.
        
         | matwood wrote:
         | > actual goal is cost reduction
         | 
         | For many companies the largest cost is labor. Also in many
         | companies, managers amass power by the number of people they
         | manage. If the C-suite doesn't explicitly push for layoffs they
         | will likely not happen, causing them to not reduce costs as
         | quickly as they wanted.
        
           | jordanb wrote:
           | Nah I've been in meetings before where it was asked "if we
           | can find these ten million in cloud costs and licenses, can
           | we retain staff?" and the answer was "no, because those are
           | different buckets."
           | 
           | Regarding "managers try to amass staff," I've seen some of
           | that for sure, but it's not universal and acting like it's
           | some kind of iron rule of organizations is an op.
           | 
           | Most managers are evaluated based on the _impact_ their
           | organization is having, not the size of it, unless the firm
           | is incredibly poorly run.
           | 
           | What _does_ happen, and where these layoff edicts come from,
           | is that the executives fear the management is more loyal to
           | their directs than they are to leadership. They feel that if
           | they want to inflict something on the workforce they have to
           | "force" management's hand, because otherwise management will
           | resist.
        
         | tetromino_ wrote:
         | But then you will still get short-sighted layoff decisions
         | getting made, only by directors instead of C-suite.
        
       | DebtDeflation wrote:
       | They used to be a once a decade "save the company during a
       | recession" move. Now they seem to be a quarterly "manage earnings
       | per share" move.
        
         | dustingetz wrote:
         | software development costs are out of control the whole
         | industry is one big grift, there's no accountability anywhere,
         | 20% of the devs are doing 80% of the work, the business would
         | instantly terminate the 80% for cause if they could only
         | discern the difference, but they can't, because the business
         | side is also a big grift with the exact same problem all the
         | way up to the founders recursively
        
           | only-one1701 wrote:
           | Good lord I'm not sure I've ever heard it put so succinctly.
           | Well done.
        
           | HappyJoy wrote:
           | And, of course, you can site a reference for those
           | statistics. That aside, I don't agree with your overall
           | sentiment.
        
           | VWWHFSfQ wrote:
           | So much of the software industry is just an outrageous
           | combination of inexperience and "YOLO". Every problem can be
           | solved by just giving AWS another $100,000 this month because
           | we don't have time (and don't know how) to make even
           | basically optimized software. So just burn the gas and
           | electricity and give more money to the YAML merchants at
           | Amazon.
        
             | georgemcbay wrote:
             | I still have PTSD from around 2012 when a company I worked
             | for and loved very much (chumby) imploded financially and
             | almost all of the employees including myself got vacuumed
             | up in an acquihire-type deal into a streaming media company
             | that was building a would-be netflix competitor.
             | 
             | Us former chumby developers were working primarily on the
             | front-end across a variety of embedded-system-like devices
             | (writing code for early versions of 'Smart' TVs from the
             | likes of Vizio, etc) while another team was creating the
             | backend and whenever they would show us the infrastructure
             | diagrams of what they were working on they would just place
             | a "HADOOP Server" wherever they had no idea how they were
             | going to solve some large difficult problem, it was
             | effectively a stand-in for "magic happens here".
             | 
             | Got to the point where there were a hilarious number of
             | layers upon layers of little cylinder icons in the system
             | design titled "HADOOP Server" all interlinked in non-
             | decipherable directed graphs.
             | 
             | I'm pretty sure every single one of us left the new company
             | within 6 months, I lasted about a month and a half.
        
           | thrance wrote:
           | I'll start to call this mindset the "DOGE mind-virus": "80%
           | of workers are doing absolutely nothing and can be cut with
           | no repercussions whatsoever". Sure buddy.
        
             | billy99k wrote:
             | Well, it worked for Twitter. Lots of people screamed that
             | Twitter would implode withing 6 months, after the massive
             | cuts. There was some scrambling for a while, but I haven't
             | noticed any issues. In fact, they've added tons of new
             | features and Grok AI (which is much better than
             | competitors).
        
               | dpkirchner wrote:
               | Last I heard Twitter is so desperate they've resorted to
               | suing former customers who stopped buying poorly
               | performing ad space.
               | 
               | Edit: removed supposition
        
               | Nextgrid wrote:
               | This has nothing to do with the tech side of things
               | though? In fact the business was always on shaky grounds
               | even before the acquisition.
               | 
               | From a tech perspective, the company was indeed massively
               | bloated with tons of people clearly not contributing
               | anything.
        
               | slackernews9 wrote:
               | There go the goal posts, whooshing by at the speed of
               | sound.
        
               | s1artibartfast wrote:
               | My understanding is that twitter's struggles are/were a
               | result of advertiser and customer boycotts, not site
               | functionality.
               | 
               | People were aghast at the brutality of the layoffs, and
               | ideological direction. However, my impression was that
               | there was in fact a tremendous amount of bloat.
        
               | thrance wrote:
               | If by worked you mean steadily losing users for the first
               | time in the history of the platform and a 0.2x of the
               | company's valuation, then sure. That worked.
               | 
               | And what's that about Grok AI being better than the
               | competition? I think I misheard.
        
               | astrange wrote:
               | They fired all the mods and sales reps, so the company no
               | longer makes money because it can't sell ads.
               | 
               | They mostly haven't added new features either, just
               | turned on some flags for features in testing.
        
               | jmholla wrote:
               | They also removed old features. Or can we look at threads
               | without being logged in? It's clear people who say
               | Twitter didn't change don't remember at all what Twitter
               | was like.
        
           | dartos wrote:
           | Got news for you.
           | 
           | It's not the devs who are bloating development costs. It's
           | the layers of management making hour long meetings to discuss
           | button placement.
           | 
           | It's the hours of retros, design meetings, and skip-levels
           | designed to remove any personal investment or sense of
           | ownership from everything.
           | 
           | Since so few individuals are trusted with real decision
           | making power, you need a lot more people to achieve some kind
           | of consensus/buy-in so that you can ship anything.
           | 
           | The devs are at the extreme bottom of this totem poll.
           | 
           | It's like blaming construction workers for houses being
           | expensive.
           | 
           | And, ofc, that goes without mentioning the multimillion
           | yearly bonuses for C-suite, but we can just forget about that
           | and blame the lowest ranking corporate employees (devs)
           | 
           | Source: I worked at a large tech firm for many years and saw
           | this over and over again.
        
             | ozim wrote:
             | Second that, scrum teams having 3 business analysts, scrum
             | master, product owner, ops/it, ux designer, 2 testers, 4
             | developers is basically how it goes.
             | 
             | Blaming developers in such scenarios is silly.
        
             | ttoinou wrote:
             | I agree with your point but at the same time developers do
             | need to be managed and they don't want to manage themselves
        
               | dartos wrote:
               | I'm not saying just leave everyone to their own devices,
               | but some individuals should be able to have ownership and
               | make decisions without layers and layers of process.
               | 
               | Ofc decisions can have consequences, but that's what the
               | high pay should be for.
               | 
               | It's not a black and white issue and I don't think you
               | need to present it like one.
        
               | ttoinou wrote:
               | A more risky job should be compensated more ? It'd be the
               | opposite, if it's risky then the variance of the income
               | should be greater (success = more income)
               | 
               | I don't want to present the problem as black and white
               | but merely express a simple idea : developers DO want to
               | be managed to simplify their lives and focus their time
               | on more important things for them
        
             | steveBK123 wrote:
             | Right every step of every dev task is ticketed, scheduled
             | and measures within a millimeter of its life in many orgs.
             | The people working the tickets aren't to blame when it all
             | goes wrong in the big picture.
             | 
             | I've worked at shops with agile coaches, consultants,
             | product teams, multiple management layers, etc all
             | attending agile planning/retro/blab sessions. They always
             | had really strong opinions on the minutae of each footstep
             | (tickets/sprint), but couldn't speak to where the path was
             | to take us. Essentially zero quarterly let alone annual
             | planning.
             | 
             | A lot of management these days is the equivalent of driving
             | and saying "I'll decide where I'm going when I get to the
             | next stop light", repeated every 2 weeks.
        
               | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
               | _> I 'll decide where I'm going when I get to the next
               | stop light_
               | 
               | Surprisingly, this type of iteration can actually work;
               | but the caveat is that the people behind the wheel, and
               | reading the maps, need to be very good, and also,
               | experienced enough to make sound decisions. If mediocre
               | (or inexperienced) people try it, it's a disaster.
               | 
               | From what I can see, the entire tech industry has been
               | institutionalizing mediocrity, so this type of approach
               | is not really available.
        
               | steveBK123 wrote:
               | Right
               | 
               | If you're copying this approach from someone who copied
               | it, after hiring an agile coach and reading the phoenix
               | project, you are likely definitionally mediocre.
               | 
               | Also it's not a one size fits all solution even for the
               | competent. Requires a more direct interface and two way
               | dialogue with users than most devs actually face.
        
               | dartos wrote:
               | It doesn't sound like the type of iteration matters at
               | all.
               | 
               | If your leadership is good and competent, they can drive
               | the company any way they feel and have it work.
               | 
               | The most productive I've been in my career was when my PO
               | put all tasks that needed to be done in a Google sheet
               | and the whole dev team spent a week just picking tasks
               | off the list. It ended with us shipping our app on time.
               | 
               | No planning, no grooming, no nothing. It was a high
               | trust, high ownership team.
               | 
               | I miss those days.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | Generally you see stuff like this turn into bikeshedding
               | and/or sales features only. Way too often I see companies
               | push for new features because they will generate sales
               | that in the long run cause more customer loss because
               | performance and stability was neglected to implement
               | them.
        
               | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
               | That's because it's done by folks not up to snuff.
               | 
               | Lots of that, going 'round, these days. Companies are
               | firing (or driving off) all the people that can do it
               | right.
        
             | oblio wrote:
             | Heh, and there's at least one FAANG where it's not even the
             | layers of management.
             | 
             | They've just removed a huge amount of manager discretion
             | and initiative through multiple top-down dictates that are
             | pretty much killing any low level desire to really innovate
             | and try risky initiatives.
             | 
             | IBM, but with same level product market fit as IBM had for
             | its mainframes, but in this case for markets 100x more
             | important for the global economy.
             | 
             | It's just sad.
        
             | austin-cheney wrote:
             | It's the devs too. Do you really need an army of developers
             | to build a web app or put text onto screen? No, a small
             | team can easily handle that much faster and at higher
             | quality without all the framework bullshit.
             | 
             | You also have to consider that developers are not sales
             | people. They are a cost center.
        
             | slackernews9 wrote:
             | Got news for you, too: it's both. It's the useless
             | management, it's the "developers" who send me screenshots
             | of stack traces while they cry and soil themselves because
             | they have no clue what they're doing.
        
           | markus_zhang wrote:
           | The twist is that when you layoff the 80% who supposedly only
           | did the 20% part, you pretty much still have to hire the same
           | amount of people to do that 20%.
        
             | jajko wrote:
             | But with lower rates, and with abysmal rampup period (or
             | even afterwards).
             | 
             | Don't blame managers, they just follow money, why else
             | would they work those crappy jobs. Blame idiots who think
             | short term bonuses should be massive instead of some long
             | term performance and investment of oneself in company's
             | success.
        
               | markus_zhang wrote:
               | Then by the same principle, don't blame the devs, they
               | are just drifting as most people would do.
        
               | dustingetz wrote:
               | Blame the board, full stop. "Follow the money", there is
               | really no other possible answer. Some set of people are
               | responsible and to determine who that is, you read the
               | corporate ledger, you read the financing contracts, you
               | read the bylaws and governance structures, and what they
               | literally state is that the board of directors are
               | responsible for directing the company. The board is
               | responsible. If _you_ wish to be a director and
               | responsible, then go incorporate, now you are the board!
               | You are responsible! Good luck!
        
           | gedy wrote:
           | > the business would instantly terminate the 80% for cause if
           | they could only discern the difference
           | 
           | There's many many companies and leadership who want their big
           | empires of people. I'm not too sure they want to fire 80% or
           | be more efficient.
        
           | dv_dt wrote:
           | The big tech companies paying the largest salaries are raking
           | in billions in profits. How does this square with the view
           | that software development costs are out of control?
           | 
           | Layoffs today seem more like execs following management fads
           | for easy visible actions and this data would suggest that the
           | actions are actually detrimental to company profits. Juice
           | the numbers for a quarter but add another long term drag to
           | the company
        
             | Nextgrid wrote:
             | Just because a company can be overall profitable doesn't
             | mean costs aren't out of control. If you make enough
             | profits, you can literally feed money into a shredder and
             | still come out ahead if you earn profits faster than your
             | shredder can eat them.
        
               | slackernews9 wrote:
               | So maybe we don't take jobs away from people with
               | families and mortgages then, if all we have to do is
               | sacrifice some profits, yeah? Gee, maybe the company can
               | only make $9 billion instead of $9.5 billion, and
               | everyone can stay employed.
        
               | dv_dt wrote:
               | What you're describing isn't out of control, all
               | businesses have income and expenses, good management is
               | watching both sides and building the organization that
               | connects the two in the middle.
               | 
               | Sudden drastic moves if the business is delivering
               | profits seems like the out-of-control action to take. If
               | the business salary structure is off, or if you need to a
               | different skill mix there are ways to shift that in a
               | profitable business without sudden layoffs damaging the
               | very organization that delivers your current profits.
        
         | fzeroracer wrote:
         | Running a business is less and less about actual business
         | outcomes and more about juicing stock. And the stock market
         | itself is divorced from reality as companies whose output has
         | gone down over time sees higher valuations because the owner
         | has cult appeal. So everything gets worse and more expensive
         | year over year while feckless suits get sloshed over company
         | dinners.
        
           | malfist wrote:
           | The stock market is like a sports betting pool where the
           | players are allowed to bet on themselves
        
             | kibwen wrote:
             | The stock market is just a predictions market, and any
             | predictions market at scale destroys the subject of its
             | prediction.
        
               | mhog_hn wrote:
               | What is the long term effect on accuracy when a large
               | mass simply moves XX% of their monthly paycheck into top
               | ETFs?
               | 
               | I don't disagree with what you said though, simply
               | sharing thoughts - I think it leads to markets being more
               | sensitive to macro strategies rather than actual
               | fundamentals
        
               | gruez wrote:
               | >What is the long term effect on accuracy when a large
               | mass simply moves XX% of their monthly paycheck into top
               | ETFs?
               | 
               | Such investments are typically market cap weighted, which
               | means their effect on stock prices are neutral. Moreover
               | there's still room for hedge funds (and other
               | sophisticated) investors to engage in price discovery.
        
               | nthingtohide wrote:
               | Can we have a different kind of stock market which forces
               | participants to consider long term outcomes more? E.g. no
               | HFT firm should be able to make a profit from such a
               | stock market. Selling stocks earlier and often should
               | result in a penalty or percentage being taken away as a
               | fee. As a retail investor I would love to use invest and
               | forget strategy based on trends observed in such a stock
               | market.
        
               | gruez wrote:
               | >E.g. no HFT firm should be able to make a profit from
               | such a stock market. Selling stocks earlier and often
               | should result in a penalty or percentage being taken away
               | as a fee.
               | 
               | Maybe by "HFT" you only mean "those evil hedge funds that
               | are pushing companies to chase next quarters' earnings",
               | but there's nothing fundamentally wrong with high
               | frequency trading. Market making[1] is high frequency
               | trading, and basically involves offering to both buy and
               | sell and given stock, and pocketing the spread. That
               | increases liquidity, making it easier for other traders
               | to buy/sell stock without taking a huge loss. It's
               | unclear why you'd want to ban this, or how you'd
               | distinguish this from whatever evil HFT you actually want
               | to ban.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_maker
        
               | nthingtohide wrote:
               | I am not saying HFTs can't sell but there should be
               | penalty for higher frequency. It means they have to craft
               | algorithms which will take longer term view of stocks
               | (and their fundamentals) rather than ignorance of other
               | participants
        
               | gruez wrote:
               | Market makers make fractions of a percent per trade. How
               | will your "penalty for higher frequency" deter traders
               | that prey on "ignorance of other participants" or
               | whatever, but don't put market makers out of business?
        
               | mistercheph wrote:
               | Easy, bye market makers! It's like a layoff, some good
               | will end up getting culled with the bad.
        
               | nthingtohide wrote:
               | All these HFT stuff reminds me of chinese event where
               | people send each other gift money as a good will gesture.
               | Revenue is high but no meaningful transaction has
               | happened. The money is just being exchanged between the
               | same top HFT firms. And the best of our minds are
               | fighting it out in the arena of algorithms rather than
               | creating real world value.
        
               | gruez wrote:
               | >Revenue is high but no meaningful transaction has
               | happened. The money is just being exchanged between the
               | same top HFT firms. And the best of our minds are
               | fighting it out in the arena of algorithms rather than
               | creating real world value.
               | 
               | Liquidity is "real world value". Being able to buy/sell a
               | stock instantly without a massive premium/discount makes
               | stock ownership for the average person possible. Contrast
               | this to an liquid market, like buying houses, where you
               | need to spend months house hunting, and pay a 6%
               | commission on top.
        
               | nthingtohide wrote:
               | https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/research-
               | publications/resbul...
               | 
               | Conclusions and policy implications
               | 
               | To return to our initial question: does stock market
               | liquidity deteriorate when HFTs compete? The results
               | suggest that competition among HFTs increases speculative
               | high-frequency trades, which could lead to a
               | deterioration in market liquidity.
        
               | gruez wrote:
               | Taking the study at face value, it only says that
               | competition among HFT is bad. It also specifically admits
               | that "As market-makers, they can update their price
               | quotes fast when news arrives and provide liquidity to
               | the market. In this case, the low-frequency traders in
               | the market - the investors - benefit from lower
               | transaction costs". In other words, at best it's
               | advocating for some sort of monopoly for HFT, rather than
               | getting rid of HFTs entirely.
        
               | thijson wrote:
               | It's not really high frequency trading in the sense of
               | day trading, it's a bit of a misnomer. I would say it's
               | actually low latency trading, the number of trades isn't
               | huge. It ensures that linkages in the market operate
               | quickly. Linkages between a stock price and its
               | respective options. Or linkages between an index ETF and
               | its components. The price discovery process should be
               | fast, it benefits all of the market participants.
        
               | dleeftink wrote:
               | Benefits how? Even if we are all 'market participants',
               | the time investment between a hobbyist and career
               | investor is rarely equal. An LFT/low frequency trading
               | market would egalise this discrepancy.
        
               | nthingtohide wrote:
               | https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/research-
               | publications/resbul...
               | 
               | High-frequency traders (HFTs) are market participants
               | that are characterised by the high speed with which they
               | react to incoming news, the low inventory on their books,
               | and the large number of trades they execute. All this is
               | possible for HFTs because they use automated, algorithmic
               | trading, which enables them to analyse markets and
               | execute trades in under a millisecond. The high-frequency
               | trading industry grew rapidly after it took off in the
               | mid-2000s. Today, high-frequency trading represents about
               | 50% of trading volume in US equity markets. In European
               | equity markets, its share is estimated to be between 24%
               | and 43% of trading volume, and about 58% to 76% of
               | orders.
        
               | callc wrote:
               | Consider no stock market. Just keep the company private.
               | 
               | Honest question, why do so many companies strive to go
               | public?
        
               | mistercheph wrote:
               | Access to large pool of capital
        
               | nthingtohide wrote:
               | There are other places where people can gamble
        
               | DebtDeflation wrote:
               | >forces participants to consider long term outcomes more
               | 
               | I remember many years ago telling a senior executive that
               | I had concerns that some of the steps we were taking to
               | boost current quarter financials would negatively impact
               | business performance in the long term. He just chuckled
               | and said, "there's no such thing as the long term, only a
               | never ending series of current quarters".
        
               | astrange wrote:
               | This subthread is nonsense. As a retail investor, HFT is
               | good for you and lowers your prices. They have a bad
               | reputation because of the book Flash Boys... but
               | basically nothing in that book was true.
        
             | echoangle wrote:
             | > where the players are allowed to bet on themselves
             | 
             | Wouldn't that be insider trading? You can't short your own
             | company before announcing bad things to make money from it.
        
               | slackernews9 wrote:
               | If you think the rich people haven't invented a way
               | around those pesky "rules"...
        
               | echoangle wrote:
               | Well people are also betting on themselves in sport
               | betting so if we account for ignoring the rules, I don't
               | see why the qualfiier that betting on yourself is allowed
               | would be needed.
        
         | cjaackie wrote:
         | Shareholders are expecting layoffs now, it's kind of sickening.
        
           | s1artibartfast wrote:
           | I think it is because most companies stopped firing.
        
       | roenxi wrote:
       | > Research has consistently shown he was right about layoffs:
       | They're damaging to companies...
       | 
       | The research is probably misleading. The damage was done to
       | companies when the over-hired people who couldn't add enough
       | value to justify keeping them employed. The layoffs are just when
       | the damage is recognised.
       | 
       | It is like borrowing a huge amount of money, using 90% of it it
       | to buy prawns and leaving them out to rot for a few days. The
       | damage is now done, the borrowed money is lost. It won't be
       | recognised for a while though. There is even enough left over to
       | pay an interest payment or two to string everything along. But
       | the damage is done.
       | 
       | A lot of people treat economics as though damage didn't happen
       | unless someone acknowledges it. That isn't how it works. Not
       | acknowledging that something is value-destructive just means more
       | value is destroyed by the time people are forced by market forces
       | to confront the truth.
        
         | fzeroracer wrote:
         | 'The research is wrong because I said so' isn't exactly a
         | compelling argument, and certainly not a strong enough one when
         | you've been in the modern workforce long enough to recognize
         | how badly layoffs are conducted at just about every company.
         | I've seen enough 10x engineers get laid off to know that the
         | idea that companies have any idea as to who is actually
         | productive or not is just false.
        
           | roenxi wrote:
           | 1) But I included an actual argument and, furthermore, it
           | assumed that the research is correct.
           | 
           | > I've seen enough 10x engineers get laid off...
           | 
           | 2) That is sensible for the company. They have no idea how to
           | use a 10x engineer, as can be detected by the fact that
           | they're having layoffs. They don't know how to create value
           | in the market and they're being forced into a position where
           | they have to squeeze what they can out of what assets they
           | have.
           | 
           | It isn't economically rational for them to employ 10x
           | engineers in that sort of environment. The global and local
           | optimum is to let those engineers go so they can do something
           | valuable somewhere and keep some more 1x style engineers on
           | the cheap.
           | 
           | If a company is having layoffs, that is the invisible hand of
           | the market writing on the wall "THIS MANAGEMENT TEAM DOESN"T
           | KNOW HOW TO MAKE MONEY AT THE MOMENT, STOP GIVING THEM
           | IMPORTANT RESOURCES". That includes 10x engineers.
        
             | Avicebron wrote:
             | Unfortunately as I've seen countless times, it's also
             | writing on the wall to the management team "TIME TO MOVE ON
             | CAUSE DAMAGE TO ANOTHER COMPANY", I don't know why we don't
             | expect management's head on the chopping block. If a
             | captain orders a course into an iceberg, idk why we can't
             | just hang the captain and course correct.
        
               | Muromec wrote:
               | Because nobody orders hanging themselves.
        
               | Eextra953 wrote:
               | That's how I feel about it too, the times I've been
               | around layoffs management and the executives all talk
               | about a difficult economic environment and making the
               | organization leaner by firing a bunch of IC's. Never once
               | have I seen a C level say hey we steered the company in
               | the wrong direction its time for new management or hey
               | our CFO failed to communicate the economic environment
               | and caused us to overspend so we're going to look for a
               | new one.
               | 
               | I know it's ridiculous to expect them to blame themselves
               | but the fact that we just accept this lack of
               | accountability from executives/management in the
               | corporate world is insane to me.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Execs go on to "pursue new interests" or "spend more time
               | with family" all the time. They may get pretty good
               | packages to do so but it absolutely happens.
        
               | SJC_Hacker wrote:
               | Because the captain owns the ship. Or is the best buddy
               | of the person that owns the ship, and can blame
               | subordinates in closed-door conversations.
        
             | fzeroracer wrote:
             | > 2) That is sensible for the company. They have no idea
             | how to use a 10x engineer, as can be detected by the fact
             | that they're having layoffs. They don't know how to create
             | value in the market and they're being forced into a
             | position where they have to squeeze what they can out of
             | what assets they have.
             | 
             | Okay, now explain why every company is encountering these
             | issues where they're frequently laying off people and are
             | unable to create value. The frequency of layoffs is
             | diametrically opposed to your thesis because otherwise
             | companies would behave in a way to reduce layoffs. Such as
             | hiring fewer employees and encouraging longer term
             | retention.
             | 
             | > If a company is having layoffs, that is the invisible
             | hand of the market writing on the wall "THIS MANAGEMENT
             | TEAM DOESN"T KNOW HOW TO MAKE MONEY AT THE MOMENT, STOP
             | GIVING THEM IMPORTANT RESOURCES". That includes 10x
             | engineers.
             | 
             | This is basically the Just World fallacy but applied to the
             | free market. If something occurs then it's justified as a
             | perfectly rational action of the invisible free hand of the
             | market. In reality layoffs are rarely conducted by the
             | people most equipped to do them, but via a mandate from
             | heaven that you must cut your team for the sake of Number
             | even if you're one of the most efficient teams in the
             | company.
        
               | brigandish wrote:
               | > now explain why every company is encountering these
               | issues where they're frequently laying off people and are
               | unable to create value.
               | 
               | Creating value is hard.
        
               | no_wizard wrote:
               | Seemingly executives being held accountable is even
               | harder, as it rarely happens
               | 
               | Edit: Please reply with concrete evidence of widespread
               | accountability of executives
        
         | trescenzi wrote:
         | This isn't how all layoffs work though. Some, yes they are due
         | to over hiring and a failure of management to plan. They are
         | likely necessary for survival of the firm and generally last
         | course of action. Although even those come with a cost to
         | current and departing employees which harms the business.
         | 
         | But the ones being discussed in the article are the consistent
         | ones. The ones you do while you're ahead to make your balance
         | sheet look better. Those come with a temporary balance sheet
         | boost and all of the negative effects of any layoffs.
        
           | roenxi wrote:
           | > But the ones being discussed in the article are the
           | consistent ones. The ones you do while you're ahead to make
           | your balance sheet look better.
           | 
           | That has to be matched with a strategy of intentional
           | overhiring though, and the damage is being done there. That
           | is the insight that should be drawn from the research -
           | intentionally doing something silly (in this case,
           | overhiring) is a classic form of waste and economically
           | destructive. Layoff or no layoff, the problem is the
           | management team has set up a situation where they believe a
           | big chunk of their workforce is unproductive.
           | 
           | This does raising the question of why boards and shareholders
           | tolerate these clowns. To me the obvious answer being that
           | the major central banks have a history of printing money and
           | handing it out to asset owners, so hiring competent managers
           | for said assets is a lot of trouble for limited gains - even
           | weak managers are enough to drink from the money hose. But
           | who knows, maybe the analysts think that a small amount of
           | sillyness averts a greater problem.
        
           | gruez wrote:
           | >But the ones being discussed in the article are the
           | consistent ones. The ones you do while you're ahead to make
           | your balance sheet look better. Those come with a temporary
           | balance sheet boost and all of the negative effects of any
           | layoffs.
           | 
           | This feels like a "no true scotsman" argument. The headline
           | of the article is literally "Why layoffs don't work", not
           | "why consistent layoffs don't work". The only mention of
           | "consistent" layoffs were when referencing Jack Welch's
           | management style, but that was more of an attempt to argue
           | that layoffs are bad by citing the worst possible example,
           | than trying to introduce nuance between the types of layoffs.
           | The studies cited also did not distinguish between the type
           | of layoffs.
        
             | trescenzi wrote:
             | Clickbait headlines aren't anything new. While a better
             | headline like: "How the Layoff Culture that Started in the
             | 80s and Spread to the Rest of Wall Street is Actually
             | Harming Business's Long Term Prospects" would be better,
             | punchy headlines like this one spur clicks and conversation
             | as seen by this thread.
             | 
             | I believe we took different things from the piece and I
             | imagine you'd disagree with my better headline. I
             | understood the piece to be telling a story starting with
             | Welch and Dunlap of how layoffs as a way to improve numbers
             | actually damage those same numbers in the long term.
        
           | andrewlgood wrote:
           | > But the ones being discussed in the article are the
           | consistent ones.
           | 
           | I worked at GE when Jack Welch was there. First of all we
           | never had a systematic firing of the bottom 10%. That is a
           | myth. We ranked everyone each year and clearly identified the
           | bottom 10% but they were not always fired. The manager did
           | have to have a development plan for these individuals.
           | 
           | More importantly, GE did have consistent layoffs. I assert
           | this was a good thing. I vividly remember asking an EVP at GE
           | Capital when I first joined GE why we did this. It seemed
           | inhumane. Wasn't it better to try and fix the so-called 'C'
           | players? His response fundamentally changed my view on
           | hiring, leadership, and firing. He told me two things. 1)
           | Hiring people is always a gamble. The best
           | interview/onboarding processes will not produce 100% success.
           | There will people that do not have the skills that are
           | needed. There will also be people for whom GE is simply not a
           | good cultural fit. 2) In good times, when a GE business unit
           | is doing well, they always over hire. People working 50 hours
           | a week want to work 40, process problems that have built up
           | need to be addressed (similar to tech debt), etc. Over time
           | this leads to bloat and inefficiency.
           | 
           | For these reasons, consistent layoffs make sense for the
           | company. They also make sense for the employee. By not
           | waiting for an economic downturn and then making dramatic
           | cuts, the exiting employees would have an easier time finding
           | the next job as odds are the economy would doing well.
           | Particularly in the case where the person was not a good fit
           | for the GE culture, they learned this and could find a better
           | fitting role elsewhere. And GE was great on the resume back
           | in those days (sadly not so today). If we waited for the
           | downturn, then the exiting employees would be looking for a
           | new job in a bad economy with everyone else who had just been
           | laid off. Not a good situation.
           | 
           | Finally, an additional point I learned later by observing
           | when and where we made headcount reductions. GE made many
           | bets on new markets, new products, etc. We had to if we were
           | to grow by 10% each year (GE Capital's rigorous requirement
           | for business and strategic plans). The successful GE leaders
           | understood is was easier to grow revenue to achieve 10% net
           | income growth than to cut expenses. Unfortunately, not all
           | new business ventures worked out. In those cases, we had to
           | make a decision to shut them down (all new ventures had off-
           | ramps). As a result, some people were repurposed, but others
           | had to be let go. I posit that is consistent with the tech
           | approach of "fail early, fail often." In industries with
           | significant people required to try a new approach, the
           | consequence of failing will be layoffs.
        
         | steveBK123 wrote:
         | This would be more true of management did not play BS with the
         | numbers constantly.
         | 
         | I worked at a firm that for 2-3 years straight would report
         | great Q1,Q2,Q3 numbers.. tell employees it's looking like a
         | good year. And then Q4 report a total wipeout loss that negated
         | the quarterly earnings and swung the company to flat or a loss.
         | Whoops, sorry, no raises, cutting bonuses.. and need to do some
         | layoffs.
         | 
         | Behavior like this reminds us that the numbers are not real
         | real in a scientific sense, but only in a relativistic
         | accounting sense.
        
           | no_wizard wrote:
           | And to top it all off executives never have to eat the shit
           | they caused in the same way the rest of the workforce at the
           | company ends up having to
        
           | hommelix wrote:
           | Similarly when goals are linked to earnings and the company
           | reports adjusted earnings... So changing the earnings by
           | disregarding some expenses or some sales out of the
           | calculation. The one in charge of this adjustment can play to
           | allow or dismiss bonus for the year.
        
         | marto1 wrote:
         | > A lot of people treat economics as though damage didn't
         | happen unless someone acknowledges it.
         | 
         | This is what I call the TV effect. People are trained from an
         | early age, by consuming media, to only construct what is "real"
         | by what is announced. And it's not just economics, but all
         | sorts of aspects of life.
        
         | woopsn wrote:
         | You don't know what you're talking about. People are fired when
         | they can't add enough value to justify being employed. Sweeping
         | industry-wide layoffs are different. Eg the "damage was done"
         | to the aviation industry in 2001 due to plummeting demand, due
         | (obviously) to new fears and hassle inhibiting travel; the
         | damage currently being done to companies in the economy is from
         | interest rates, inflation, trade uncertainty, stock
         | manipulation, ...
        
           | austin-cheney wrote:
           | > You don't know what you're talking about. People are fired
           | when they can't add enough value to justify being employed.
           | 
           | That depends upon the employer. Layoffs occur for a plurality
           | of reasons and the persons selected for termination are
           | selected by various different criteria that may include
           | quotas or random selection.
        
           | slackernews9 wrote:
           | Look, honey, another nerd who thinks the meritocracy is real!
           | Get the camera!
        
         | nativeit wrote:
         | Is it not incumbent on the company who hired the employees to
         | ensure they are utilized sufficiently? Why imply it's the
         | worker's fault for their own mismanagement?
        
           | nativeit wrote:
           | This all sounds like the post-mortem justifications of a
           | sclerotic executive suite.
        
           | gruez wrote:
           | >Why imply it's the worker's fault for their own
           | mismanagement?
           | 
           | I'm not sure how you got the impression that OP implied it's
           | the worker's fault. If during the 2021-2022 boom, some
           | startup hired a bunch of junior programmers for $200k/yr, I
           | think describing those people as "people who couldn't add
           | enough value to justify keeping them employed" is a fair
           | assessment of the situation. It doesn't imply that it's the
           | junior programmer's fault, any more than it's not my "fault"
           | if I'm asked to play a musical instrument with no prior
           | experience, it sounding terrible, and people asking me to
           | stop.
        
         | therealpygon wrote:
         | Some people will really do a lot of mental gymnastics in order
         | to consistently blame workers instead of laying the real blame
         | on poor leadership for company failures. If your company is
         | failing because Tammy isn't a "rockstar" at her job, you have a
         | terrible company.
        
         | rainsford wrote:
         | I don't see much reason to think mass layoffs are typically the
         | result of over-hiring rather than a reaction to changing
         | circumstances that are different than when the hiring
         | originally happened. The article opens with a perfect example,
         | the constriction of the US air travel market following 9/11.
         | The people most airlines fired as a result weren't "over-
         | hired". Their hiring made sense at the time and they were fired
         | when circumstances changed. I'd argue this is likely more often
         | be the case than actual over-hiring, since it's easier for a
         | company to see if they can actually utilize new employees _now_
         | than it is for them to predict the future.
         | 
         | In cases like that, the layoffs really do seem likely to be
         | damaging to the companies. If circumstances change for a
         | company and they can no longer effectively use all their
         | employees, the most obvious solution is to get rid of
         | employees, but it then makes it far more difficult to recover
         | when positive opportunities present themselves. I think
         | companies trick themselves into believing that since hiring and
         | firing employees is relatively quick, it's a good tool to adapt
         | to changing circumstances in either direction. But that ignores
         | the time it takes for a new employee to become fully productive
         | and the increased difficulty/cost in hiring new employees if
         | your company has a reputation as an unreliable employer. It
         | also ignores the potential boost to productivity that can come
         | from employee loyalty and job satisfaction and security.
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | The latter points are true. But it's also the case that
           | radical reskilling for very different job roles (with
           | possibly rather different market salaries and, honestly,
           | different from many people's job preferences) is tough too.
           | Probably hard to come up with reliable rules.
        
         | slackernews9 wrote:
         | Mmm maybe they shouldn't have hired them in the first place
         | then. Ever think of that, you miserable waste?
        
         | Fargren wrote:
         | I have tried and failed to understand what is meant by "layoff
         | due to overhiring", in the context of Software Engineering.
         | When an engineer is employed in a successful project, they are
         | incredibly profitable. A handful of engineers can write and
         | maintain products worth millions of dollars. Big companies,
         | which are the ones we discuss when talking about "overhiring"
         | should be capable to find or create projects where an engineer
         | will be at least modestly profitable. And having an employee
         | creating a small amount of profit, who might eventually be
         | moved to something that's better, is certainly more profitable
         | than firing him and paying severance.
         | 
         | Note that here I'm talking about firing good performers because
         | you have "too many" of them. Firing bad performers because the
         | estimated cost of training them is not justified, I can
         | understand.
         | 
         | The only explanation I found satisfying is that investors
         | heuristically care about profit per capita(ppc) as well as
         | total profit, and employees who don't produce _enough_ profit
         | reduce ppc and thus investment to point the opportunity cost of
         | firing them aligns. You'll make investors happy, which will
         | raise valuation, more than what you are losing from the lost
         | profit. But this is not "rational" in a full information
         | economic sense. It's essentially the company virtue signaling
         | that they are capable to fire if they had to, even at the cost
         | of actual dollars.
        
       | bell-cot wrote:
       | Layoff are like hammers: When needed, in the hands of someone
       | skilled, they work perfectly well. But such situations are sadly
       | rare, compared to frustrated idiots grabbing hammers to get their
       | quick "Hulk Smash!" dopamine hits.
        
         | Joel_Mckay wrote:
         | When it is your money making payroll, than the perspectives
         | rapidly shift.
         | 
         | If your Labor doesn't tangibly produce quantifiable profit,
         | than you must furlough staff to stay in business. Assigning
         | fault in such situations is a fools errand, as everyone suffers
         | losses in the end ($18k to $45k in lost training resources per
         | person etc.)
         | 
         | Best of luck, =3
        
         | malfist wrote:
         | But surely the billionaires in their lavish lifestyles, they're
         | the ones that really know how to run a frugal enterprise.
        
       | csomar wrote:
       | The layoffs are not the issue. It is the decision makers who took
       | the two decisions to both over-hire and then mass-fire shortly
       | after. GM is a great example. The company was the largest and one
       | of the most innovative car manufacturers in the world. It doesn't
       | stand a chance against BYD today and it is not by a lack of money
       | (though maybe with a C-suite change).
       | 
       | So my opinion is, yes, the damage is done (or being done) but
       | like GM, it'll probably take 10-15 years until we are in the
       | visible territory. Maybe a bit shorter because this is tech.
        
         | steveBK123 wrote:
         | GM is a great example, Intel as well, that its rarely the
         | engineers fault. You can have great talent but if management is
         | dead set on bad decisions over & over, theres nothing to be
         | done.
         | 
         | And the decision to overhire/overfire, set bad strategy, etc
         | all resides in the C-Suite who rarely fire each other or
         | themselves when it all goes wrong. It's only the employees that
         | suffer for every mis-step.
        
           | kgwgk wrote:
           | > It's only the employees that suffer for every mis-step.
           | 
           | They benefit for the overhiring mis-step.
        
             | steveBK123 wrote:
             | Not necessarily. If you give up a good job to join a firm
             | that has over-hired, its only obvious in retrospect that
             | you took a bad risk.
        
               | _benj wrote:
               | This hits home. I wish there was a way to gauge
               | "retrospect" before actually suffering from it. I'm now
               | usually quite weary of "we've had to get yet another loan
               | of 60 mil, after 6 years in business because we don't
               | know how to make a profitable business" also known as a
               | series C or whatever.
        
               | steveBK123 wrote:
               | These are great because often the founder managed to take
               | money out at one round of funding or another and is
               | insulated from downside.
        
               | billy99k wrote:
               | I don't work full-time for startups, because of this. I
               | was contracting for a startup last summer for about 6
               | months. They paid really well, but after researching the
               | company, they were on their 3rd round of funding. The
               | estimated yearly profits were a sliver of this, meaning
               | they were burning through VC money hoping for an
               | acquisition or somehow massively increasing profits. The
               | product was also in a very crowded space with lots of
               | competitors.
               | 
               | They had 3 other contractors working on the same
               | functionality and they were all let go within a couple of
               | weeks, because I could get it done 2X faster and without
               | many integration issues.
               | 
               | I would have gladly kept working as a contractor, but
               | when I refused a full-time work offer, they cut all
               | contact off with me.
               | 
               | I would talk to the FTE frequently and they were always
               | overworked and on multiple teams.
        
         | ctb_mg wrote:
         | > one of the most innovative car manufacturers in the world
         | 
         | Off topic, but I'd like some more specific thoughts regarding
         | what you are aware of for specific automotive technologies that
         | GM has innovated over the past decades, to make this statement.
         | 
         | Intuitively, GM cars do not do well internationally, have been
         | known to have creaky interior build quality, have silly
         | features like turning the reverse lights on when you unlock the
         | car in a parking lot, and are not competitive on a scale of
         | luxury compared to their European and Japanese counterparts.
        
           | doktorhladnjak wrote:
           | I agree with you that most American cars are junk. I hate all
           | these same features plus others like the weird headlight
           | controls, parking break on the floor in non-trucks, not to
           | mention the loose feeling brakes and steering.
           | 
           | Traditionally, GM sold other models overseas through brands
           | like Holden or Opel, but these have all been sold off or shut
           | down over the past decade or so except in China. GM now has a
           | much heavier reliance on trucks and SUVs in the North
           | American market. They sell some of those same product
           | overseas still, but in much smaller quantities than before.
        
         | Der_Einzige wrote:
         | STFU about GM. People who buy their cars love them, and I don't
         | trust folks that HN would like to be the designers on the C9
         | corvette.
        
         | dehrmann wrote:
         | If not for tariffs, we'll all be driving BYDs in a decade.
        
       | lukashoff wrote:
       | Because layoffs are not done to make company great but to make
       | sure shareholders and execs preserve their wealth. It's never
       | about company or people or technology - it's always about money,
       | power and wealth.
        
       | pclmulqdq wrote:
       | I remember hearing a take on layoffs that I think is pretty true:
       | When you fire the bottom 10%, you lose another 10% who are from
       | the top performers. The destruction of psychological safety for
       | everyone at the company is irreparable, and you start to bleed
       | your most productive talent, too.
        
         | sejje wrote:
         | Why do you lose 10% of your top performers?
        
           | jFriedensreich wrote:
           | because they see the company struggles and is not loyal, as
           | top performers have plenty of options they will be more
           | likely to take a better offer when it comes along. Top
           | performers will not leave the same day but bleed out over a
           | bit longer timeframe. The most popular example is woz
           | hesitating so much to leave HP because HP was loyal to
           | employees and woz was loyal to HP. Imagine the same situation
           | when HP had just let go 10% of employees, he would not have
           | thought about it twice.
        
           | Muromec wrote:
           | Because they have a good chance of hiring a better employer
           | and will either do that or stop being your top ten percent
        
           | eschneider wrote:
           | Because people will often see people who they don't perceive
           | as low performers getting lumped in with 'low performers' and
           | laid off. At that point, you start looking for management
           | that seem to know what they're doing.
        
             | sejje wrote:
             | But only top 10% start looking?
             | 
             | This all sounds like a hand wavy hypothetical.
        
               | tmoertel wrote:
               | Everybody starts looking, but it's the top performers who
               | get disproportionately more offers and leave.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Dead_Sea_effect
        
           | Sammi wrote:
           | Because disloyalty breeds disloyalty and distrust breeds
           | distrust.
           | 
           | The top people have the best opportunities elsewhere, so they
           | leave first.
           | 
           | Even if they don't quit outright, they are likely to quiet
           | quit, because why put in the effort when it is rewarded with
           | disloyalty?
        
           | EPWN3D wrote:
           | Top performers have options and value stability. They also
           | know that they rely on their manager to accurately reflect
           | their work up the chain.
           | 
           | Some percentage of top performers report to deadbeat
           | managers, so in an environment doing mandatory layoffs,
           | they'll know that it doesn't matter how much they knock it
           | out of the park, their manager will screw them. So of course
           | they'll leave.
        
             | sejje wrote:
             | If you're a top performer stuck under a deadbeat manager,
             | how are you able to signal to new companies that you're a
             | top performer?
             | 
             | I read posts here all the time about how hard it is to
             | hire. How do top performers distinguish themselves as they
             | go out for new jobs? When did this become easy?
        
               | meesles wrote:
               | > How do top performers distinguish themselves as they go
               | out for new jobs?
               | 
               | During an interview process, and by using your network.
               | Top performers aren't usually slinging applications
               | through LinkedIn in my limited experience
               | 
               | > When did this become easy? It isn't, they're referred
               | to as top performers for a reason. It's easier for folks
               | who excel in their fields, and that holds true across
               | domains.
        
               | rwmj wrote:
               | The secret is that top performers are hired by word of
               | mouth, they don't go through the usual processes.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | As others here are saying you know the right people.
               | Which is probably a pretty unsatisfactory answer and
               | seems very unfair for those who don't.
        
           | Eextra953 wrote:
           | I don't know if I'm a top 10% employee, but I'll share how
           | layoffs influenced my decision to leave a job of 5+ years. I
           | started looking for a new role after they announced the
           | layoff of about 200 people in my organization. When I finally
           | got an offer, I kept going back and forth on staying and
           | negotiating or accepting the offer. There were many other
           | reasons why I left, but a huge factor were the layoffs. I
           | just kept thinking, they already had layoffs, what's to stop
           | them from laying me off next? It's also a crappy feeling
           | thinking that you/your team can be on the chopping block at
           | any time.
        
           | chasd00 wrote:
           | Top performers are generally pretty sharp. If they recognize
           | the company is struggling and decide they have a better
           | future elsewhere then that's where they'll go.
        
           | shortrounddev2 wrote:
           | I have only ever quit jobs in response to layoffs. Layoffs
           | demonstrate to me that the company is apparently low on cash
           | if they need to fire people to make ends meet. If they are
           | not low on cash, it means that they will arbitrarily fire
           | anyone in order to pump up their stock.
           | 
           | Though I've never personally been laid off, it's a black mark
           | on the company that I think you can never recover from. It
           | means I will never trust anything said at a quarterly all-
           | hands. The projections they give us employees are spun to be
           | more positive than they really are.
           | 
           | During COVID, my company told us that we were going to be
           | able to save money by breaking the lease on our office
           | building and stop paying for amenities like the snacks in the
           | break room and catered lunches (since nobody could use them
           | anyways). This, they said, should save us enough money that
           | we don't need to lay anyone off!
           | 
           | 10% of the company was laid off a week later. The next day, I
           | would later discover, the company applied for a PPP loan:
           | they had laid people off pre-emptively so that they wouldn't
           | be penalized for it next year when they sought to have their
           | PPP loan forgiven.
           | 
           | It illustrated to me that you can't trust leadership, ever.
           | Once a company initiates a layoff, it's a permanent black
           | mark on that company
        
           | danny_codes wrote:
           | Anecdotally layoffs leave a bad taste. I worked at a smallish
           | company that laid of 20% going into covid and within 2 years
           | most of the best talent churned out.
           | 
           | It gutted moral, basically.
        
           | mock-possum wrote:
           | I think because - if you fire a poor performer, everyone kind
           | of gets it - they weren't doing a good job, they're a drain
           | on company resources, they've got it coming, basically.
           | 
           | But lying off isn't firing someone for performance - it's
           | admitting "we don't have enough money to pay you"
           | 
           | And that's something that should be scary to everybody in the
           | company.
           | 
           | When your shitty coworker gets fired, you shrug and say,
           | yeah, saw that coming. When your shitty coworkers get laid
           | off, you look around nervously and think phew, l lucked out.
        
         | llm_nerd wrote:
         | Companies churn through people constantly. Google famously has
         | an employee tenure of like a year[1]. Most companies that
         | subscribe to the Jack Welch "fire your bottom 10% yearly"
         | philosophy don't usually declare a media stock-pump "layoff"
         | but are just letting go of purported non-performers constantly.
         | And there are a lot of "top 10%" performers who are very happy
         | that the so-called deadweight isn't kept around just for some
         | foolish notion of "loyalty".
         | 
         | Sometimes layoffs are unfair, and sometimes the wrong people
         | are let go. But often it's entirely necessary and the right
         | people are let go.
         | 
         | [1] - Which makes the whole gruelling, multi-month hiring
         | process positively _ridiculous_. It would be much better for
         | this industry if companies hire fast and fire fast, instead of
         | delusions that they 're finding the magical employee base that
         | will be with them forever.
        
           | pclmulqdq wrote:
           | I think if you look at companies like Citadel, which
           | routinely fire the bottom 10% as part of the job description,
           | it attracts a certain set of people who actually do feel
           | "safe" in that environment. The trouble comes when you break
           | your norms about layoffs.
           | 
           | Also, Google's median tenure of <1 year was due to hiring,
           | not employees leaving. In other words, that number included
           | people who hadn't left yet. I think if you look at people
           | leaving Google, average is about 3 years.
        
             | llm_nerd wrote:
             | >Also, Google's median tenure of <1 year was due to hiring,
             | not employees leaving
             | 
             | Google would have to be growing at >300% per year for this
             | math to make sense.
             | 
             | But even if it's 3 years ({X} doubt), that's still
             | cartoonishly low for a hiring process that drags on for
             | months and months.
             | 
             | >I think if you look at companies like Citadel, which
             | routinely fire the bottom 10% as part of the job
             | description
             | 
             | Almost all tech companies target firing/pushing out a
             | considerable percentage of employees per year. It actually
             | is incredibly common, even if it usually doesn't make the
             | news. They used to do it overtly via stack ranking, but now
             | they just do it more quietly. Microsoft punted 2000 "low
             | performers" in the first two months. _Brutal_ firings with
             | zero severance, immediate cancellation of health coverage,
             | etc.
        
           | surajrmal wrote:
           | The Google tenure stat is misleading because it was taken at
           | a time when the company was growing 20% per year. The actual
           | statistic worth looking at was how long a person who is
           | leaving had been with the company on average at the time of
           | leaving or what percentage of the overall headcount leaves
           | per year. While I don't feel comfortable sharing those
           | numbers, I can confidently say they lower than the industry
           | norm.
        
             | llm_nerd wrote:
             | The _industry norm_ is incredibly short tenures, and often
             | when it starts increasing, it 's paradoxically when the
             | company is on the track towards complacency and eventual
             | failure.
             | 
             | https://www.inc.com/jeff-haden/why-googles-high-turnover-
             | rat...
             | 
             | This isn't some Google specific thing. The cargo cult "look
             | at our super exhaustive, endlessly demanding hiring
             | process" is a farce _everywhere_. It 's actually a bit
             | paradoxical because it actually selects for employees who
             | don't want to actually stay with you, they just want to be
             | able to say they were willing to endure your gauntlet.
        
               | moregrist wrote:
               | Perhaps in your segment of the industry.
               | 
               | I've worked in places where people stuck around for years
               | because they believed in the company and technology and
               | wanted to successfully ship a product. In fact, I still
               | view repeated 18-month stints as a bit of a red flag.
               | 
               | It's a big industry. There's a difference between a norm
               | and something that a sizable subset of people do.
        
         | InsideOutSanta wrote:
         | I've seen this happen. I worked at an extremely efficient
         | company that had a great product. We got acquired, and within
         | months, were part of the acquiring company's yearly mandatory
         | layoffs. They fired a bunch of (apparently random) people to
         | meet the quota. This absolutely destroyed us. Morale was just
         | gone.
         | 
         | Within six months, about a quarter of our employees, mainly top
         | performers who could easily find other jobs, left voluntarily.
         | 
         | The whole thing self-destructed within another year, and the
         | product we worked on was abandoned.
        
           | marto1 wrote:
           | > had a great product
           | 
           | > We got acquired
           | 
           | Can I just ask about the reason for this? Was it owners
           | wanting off the ride?
        
             | InsideOutSanta wrote:
             | Owners made half a billion and got high-ranking positions
             | at the buyer.
             | 
             | Buyers bought it because they had a very specific problem
             | that the product was designed to solve, and thought that it
             | would be a competitive advantage to deny the solution to
             | their competition. On paper, it was a good decision.
        
               | krainboltgreene wrote:
               | Classic capitalist efficiency right there.
        
           | encom wrote:
           | >yearly mandatory layoffs
           | 
           | That sounds grotesque. Who would choose to work at a company
           | with that sort of bullshit dangling over your head?
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | Tons of people have gone to work at companies with various
             | stack ranking schemes. Most people need jobs.
        
             | shortrounddev2 wrote:
             | Enron was famous for this. Supposedly it's a practice that
             | Jeff Skilling learned at Harvard business school, where the
             | bottom 10% were flunked no matter what their absolute GPA
             | was
        
             | slackernews9 wrote:
             | I mean, being homeless kinda sucks.
        
         | jarsin wrote:
         | I don't think its only psychological safety. If the top
         | performers lose staff that did the mundane crap and now they
         | have to do it they start to really pay attention to what the
         | management is actually doing.
         | 
         | Every layoff I have ever survived the staff inevitably ends up
         | talking about how so and so manager and his favorite buddies
         | are still out golfing every friday. Why the f are they still
         | here etc.
         | 
         | This resentment builds and builds.
        
       | andrenotgiant wrote:
       | > After the early-2000s dotcom bust, Bain researchers found that
       | stock prices for S&P 500 companies that had no layoffs or laid
       | off less than 3% of their workforce increased an average of 9% in
       | the next year. Meanwhile, stock prices were flat in companies
       | that laid off between 3%-10% of their workers, and prices
       | plummeted 38% for companies that laid off more than 10%.
       | 
       | Failing companies go through layoffs. Companies like Sun
       | Microsystems, Kodak, Sears, Circuit City, Kmart all went through
       | lots of layoffs. But everyone knows that's not what killed them.
        
         | marto1 wrote:
         | > But everyone knows that's not what killed them.
         | 
         | Another addition I'd like to add here is more often then not
         | wrong people get booted while the "dead weight" tends to stick
         | around and becomes even deader due to a motivation fall from
         | the layoff. So maybe it doesn't kill, but for sure exacerbates
         | an already bad situation.
        
           | fx1994 wrote:
           | We are a small team in big company, and management that made
           | wrong decisions is still somewhere there but not my direct
           | management, still getting same paycheck, car, cards and
           | benefits but new managers (that accepted to take over and got
           | brand new car for 100kEUR, cards and bonuses, bells and
           | whistles) started to layoff workers so we know this is the
           | end for my team, and of course they will do whatever it takes
           | to "save the product", but not fix the the real issue... lack
           | of good developers to fix terrible bugs in our product.
        
             | acdha wrote:
             | That's really the key part: if the managers who created the
             | problem are still there, layoffs will just make it worse.
             | There are cases where getting out of a dubious business
             | line can lead to long-term benefit but I've seen that a
             | handful of times compared to losing useful people while the
             | bad managers failed upwards.
        
               | AlotOfReading wrote:
               | That's basically the story of Philips. They go through a
               | tough period and choose to divest a "dubious" line of
               | business to focus on higher margin products. The new
               | company, freed of Philips management, goes on to surpass
               | the revenues of the parent. That's how ASML and NXP were
               | born. Signify (Philips lighting) is getting reasonably
               | close.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | If your small team in a big company does not directly
             | generate money, then you'd definitely be ripe for
             | elimination. Time and time again we've seen examples of
             | trams that are critical to supporting various revenue
             | generating parts of the company while not directly making
             | money themselves get cut as an "obvious" way to save money
             | when only looking at the books. Been there.
        
               | e12e wrote:
               | > Time and time again we've seen examples of trams that
               | are critical to supporting various revenue generating
               | parts of the company while not directly making money
               | themselves get cut as an "obvious" way to save money when
               | only looking at the books.
               | 
               | Love how your typo turned into a beautiful metaphor for
               | infrastructure being cut.
               | 
               | Save the trams!
        
               | Boldened15 wrote:
               | Some are kind to eng ICs, you're not laid off from the
               | company just given time to join another team. As you can
               | still be a high-performer with context on company
               | culture/tech stack while on a non-revenue-generating
               | team.
        
               | da_chicken wrote:
               | The thing is, ending a product that's not making money
               | shouldn't mean eliminating the workers. Those were people
               | you picked, brought in, and have adapted to your culture.
               | 
               | It always strikes me as weird when a product fails and
               | the decision is to eliminate everyone from the product
               | manager down... and then make no other changes. Then they
               | bring in completely new people for whatever the new
               | product line is. Sometimes, sure, an individual or group
               | might cause a product to fail that should otherwise
               | succeed. But it's weird to default to the production
               | team. Is it a design problem? A maintenance problem? A
               | product price problem? A sales and marketing problem? A
               | management problem?
               | 
               | Like, the Pontiac Aztek did not do badly because one
               | welder from Mexico screwed it up. It failed because it
               | was ugly. It was ugly because the styling didn't survive
               | the requirements to use the same parts as the Buick
               | Rendezvous and the same basic platform as the Pontiac
               | Montana. The process of making that vehicle fit into GM
               | at that time killed the product. Today the Chevrolet
               | Equinox, a direct descendent, is one of the best selling
               | vehicles on the road at a time when there's a lot more
               | competition.
        
               | ltbarcly3 wrote:
               | Workers cost money. Layoffs don't just happen, they
               | happen when management is under pressure, usually because
               | they won't make payroll in a couple months, occasionally
               | because the stock market demands better margins.
               | 
               | I get that you have no experience at that level of a
               | company but you could spend some time researching it.
               | 
               | https://chatgpt.com/share/67cdcf56-a24c-8006-bc54-b2bcccf
               | a7c... Inb4 chatgpt, it knows a lot more than op here.
        
           | ellisv wrote:
           | Even if mostly the "right" people are laid off, laying off a
           | wrong person can have a cascading effect.
           | 
           | Good people like to stick together. Get rid of a couple and
           | the rest will start to leave.
        
             | cratermoon wrote:
             | Even if, from the company's perspective, if lays off all
             | the "right" people, some of those people will be "wrong"
             | from the point of view of other people on the team. Maybe
             | the _company_ didn 't value a certain person, for corporate
             | or HR reasons, but there's always a chance that person was
             | a valued team member for human reasons.
             | 
             | Layoffs will lead to people leaving, regardless of how
             | surgical or random they are.
        
               | karparov wrote:
               | Exactly. Somebody who is universally hated by their co-
               | workers should just be let go. Nothing to do with a
               | layoff. So everybody who is around has some reason for
               | actually being there. In a well-managed place, that is.
        
               | cratermoon wrote:
               | > Somebody who is universally hated by their co-workers
               | 
               | How many times have we seen a company fire whoever they
               | consider "dead weight" but keep the universally hated guy
               | because he's a 10x rockstar whatever?
        
               | karparov wrote:
               | A 10x person who brings down 20 others to a small
               | fraction of their potential and causes other rockstars to
               | leave is still net-negative. Good management understands
               | this.
               | 
               | (And I'm not sure why I'm downvoted for this. Nothing
               | about that should be controversial?)
        
               | cratermoon wrote:
               | Exactly. So the company keeps the guy everyone hates
               | after laying off people that get along. The next people
               | to leave the company are the ones disgusted by the move.
        
               | karparov wrote:
               | Depends on the company. I've seen the opposite case were
               | such a person was let go, much to everybody's relief.
               | Some people had to clean up his mess, which was genius in
               | the sense that it worked flawlessly, but nobody else
               | could maintain it, so he had locked in a minimal bus
               | factor. Which makes such a move harder to execute, but
               | the earlier the better.
        
               | shagie wrote:
               | https://www.freecodecamp.org/news/we-fired-our-top-
               | talent-be...
               | 
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15474893 (2017) (133
               | points | 130 comments)
        
           | silisili wrote:
           | Unfortunately, optimizing for not getting yourself laid off
           | is not the same as optimizing for max productivity. In many
           | ways, they're quite opposite.
        
             | 3eb7988a1663 wrote:
             | Indeed. Like everyone from Lake Wobegon, I think that I am
             | effective at my job. One of the most productive things I
             | can do is to strangle bad ideas in the crib. This is not a
             | popular role. Killing someone's pet initiative can make
             | enemies. Yet, it can save countless weeks/months/years on
             | doomed-to-fail efforts.
             | 
             | Working to not be laid off usually means just keeping your
             | head down and going with the flow.
        
           | bigtimesink wrote:
           | This happened to me. There was a layoff, I got overwhelmed
           | with work that had to get picked up, lost motivation, and
           | burned out.
        
         | dv_dt wrote:
         | There is the question of if layoffs saved the company enough to
         | save itself or improve? And with that data you could say
         | layoffs by themselves don't.
         | 
         | Today the question is why companies making good profits are
         | making layoffs. And looking at the damage they cause is
         | relevant in trying to predict company performance
        
           | dietr1ch wrote:
           | > There is the question of if layoffs saved the company
           | enough to save itself or improve?
           | 
           | They at least secured management a final big bonus for
           | dealing with that, so management and shareholders cash in a
           | bit on the way down.
        
             | dv_dt wrote:
             | If the layoffs are taking a company which could be stably
             | growing to one which is going downhill - in that case the
             | execs actually hurting their long term compensation.
             | 
             | But i get it, it's like junk food for execs, easy to do,
             | crisp in the action (even if not in the effects). But
             | consumed carelessly its bad for company health
        
           | jaredklewis wrote:
           | > And with that data you could say layoffs by themselves
           | don't.
           | 
           | I think that is one inference too far? Layoffs may have saved
           | some of those companies from bankruptcy. The Bain study is
           | looking at share price performance and offers no data that
           | would resolve that question.
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | There's a big tendency to look for culprits whether layoffs,
         | PE, MBAs, or whatever. But a lot of companies just made wrong
         | bets or were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Kodak was
         | _never_ going to survive in anything like its pre-digital form.
        
           | forty wrote:
           | Yet, those who makes those wrong bets are generally paid very
           | generously and they are generally not those who suffers from
           | the consequences
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | You skipped the second part of my comment. Yes, senior
             | execs at large publc companies--assuming they didn't do
             | anything actually criminal or stupid related to their own
             | finances--generally come out the other side OK. But
             | sometimes a company can just reasonably get into a place
             | it's hard to come out from. Kodak is a really good example
             | IMO.
        
               | forty wrote:
               | Maybe I'm expecting too much, but for me the only good
               | reason a CEO is paid more than any actually useful
               | employee of the company is to anticipate this kind of
               | thing and use the money from their leadership position in
               | the old tech to invest and not be in a very bad position
               | with the new tech.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Sometimes companies just aren't in a good position for
               | historical reasons. Returning to Kodak you can't really
               | say to your investors and employees 90% of our existing
               | business is toast and we're going to churn everything
               | over the next 5 years.
               | 
               | Sometimes you can do things more incrementally but other
               | times it makes sense to basically close up shop and maybe
               | shop your brand and some assets while keeping the biz
               | afloat at some level with a lot of people still
               | collecting a paycheck.
        
         | throwaway3572 wrote:
         | Also, failing companies that use layoffs to restructure can
         | succeed. For an example see IBM in the 90s. It's hard but
         | possible. And since the article uses stock price as a proxy for
         | success, IBMs stock struggled for a long time afterward. It hit
         | an all time high in 2025.
         | 
         | And then there are non tech industries that just go through
         | cycles, like oil.
        
           | derwiki wrote:
           | IBM is up 40% from its previous 2012 high point. In the same
           | time, S&P is up nearly 400%.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | Its stock has done pretty well the past couple of years.
             | (And it's a pretty good dividend stock as well.)
        
         | glitchc wrote:
         | This is it exactly. Layoffs are a symptom of failure, not a
         | cause of savings.
        
         | theli0nheart wrote:
         | The key takeaway for me is that layoffs are an effect, not a
         | cause, of company failure.
         | 
         | The quoted text is a good example of this. If a company is
         | struggling strategically or economically, and doesn't do a
         | layoff, it's just going to struggle more, and fail more
         | quickly. Companies that aren't laying people off are likely not
         | even considering layoffs, because their businesses are actually
         | doing well.
         | 
         | So, it's pretty obvious to me that companies in that cohort
         | would see the biggest stock price appreciation, because layoffs
         | are an indicator of poor future performance.
        
           | hinkley wrote:
           | Layoffs are an effect of unsustainable success.
           | 
           | If you can lay off people without cratering the company, it
           | means you hired too many people in the first place.
        
         | ninetyninenine wrote:
         | This correlation isn't necessarily causal. Companies that are
         | failing are more likely to layoff could be just as true as
         | companies that layoff are more likely to fail.
        
       | ashoeafoot wrote:
       | I wish those departments tasked with busywork would be able to
       | build skunkworks inside these dysfunctional molochs and be able
       | to keep what they create. Fired into becoming a startup.. a man
       | can dream.
        
         | DamonHD wrote:
         | I watched up close a multinational try to create a shunkworks
         | and the ugly result was a lot more shunk than works...
        
       | wiradikusuma wrote:
       | The article lists down why layoffs don't work, but companies keep
       | doing it, so it must be working for them.
       | 
       | I hate layoffs (from both perspectives), but the article sounds
       | like whining "we shouldn't break up".
       | 
       | The alternative of furlough only works if everyone else is doing
       | it. If everyone else fires left right and center, the people
       | being furloughed will still have low morale.
       | 
       | I think it's better to avoid it in the first place, by not over
       | hiring, as others have pointed out.
        
         | rsfern wrote:
         | I think you're right that it's better to avoid these issues in
         | the first place, but your perspective on furloughs instead of
         | layoffs seems a bit fatalistic. I think a company that did
         | rolling furloughs (and importantly was transparent about the
         | whole process) would probably maintain pretty good morale,
         | especially if the rest of the industry is laying people off.
         | But yeah singling people out for furlough would probably be a
         | big morale hit
        
       | mattmaroon wrote:
       | "After the early-2000s dotcom bust, Bain researchers found that
       | stock prices for S&P 500 companies that had no layoffs or laid
       | off less than 3% of their workforce increased an average of 9% in
       | the next year."
       | 
       | Do non-science journalists just not know about correlation vs
       | causation? Does it really not occur to them that maybe the
       | companies that didn't do layoffs were healthier and that's why
       | they overperformed? Wouldn't a 10 year old know that?
        
         | altcognito wrote:
         | How would you correct for it? As someone who works with ten
         | year olds, they would ask you what causation and correlation
         | is.
        
           | gruez wrote:
           | They might not know those words, but intuitively know that
           | stuff like "ice cream trucks cause heat waves" make no sense.
        
           | mattmaroon wrote:
           | I was being hyperbolic about the ten year olds, but that's
           | funny.
           | 
           | Correcting for it: I don't know. It would be very hard. You
           | could try to control for variables like profitability, etc.,
           | but there are so many and you don't know what you don't know.
           | But the correct response to absence of valid data isn't
           | drawing conclusions from obviously bad data.
           | 
           | It just cracks me up that one paragraph later the author
           | points out:
           | 
           | "Mass layoffs are often symptoms of unsound business
           | strategies and don't do anything to cure the larger problem."
           | 
           | and yet somehow didn't see that that sentence alone proves
           | his previous one was pointless.
        
           | dehrmann wrote:
           | One big problem is layoffs cluster around events like the dot
           | com bubble, the financial crisis, or covid, so there are
           | weird things happening. You might be able to look at
           | companies' quarterly profits to identify healthy companies
           | that remained healthy, but still did layoffs.
        
         | slappyham wrote:
         | I find it fascinating that every single post on this
         | godforsaken orange website inevitably has several comments that
         | amount to "nuh uh!", and then they trot out the same three or
         | four reasons why, this one being one of them.
        
           | mattmaroon wrote:
           | Because it's a very common logical fallacy. You're also
           | describing sample bias, someone who wholeheartedly agrees
           | with the article probably has little to discuss.
        
       | sleight42 wrote:
       | The top comments read like HN of a decade or two ago when
       | armchair exporting was rampant.
       | 
       | Paraphrasing: "I, an engineer, am smarter than an economist
       | therefore the article is wrong."
       | 
       | Nothing of value to be found at the top of the comments.
        
         | gjsman-1000 wrote:
         | No, we're saying the majority of economists are more likely to
         | be accurate than this particular economist.
        
         | slappyham wrote:
         | Combine that with temporarily-embarrassed billionaires and it's
         | a recipe for disaster. Every last asshole here is hoping for a
         | fat exit for some ReactJS garbage that probably just grinds up
         | poor people into McDonald's hamburger meat; of course they
         | don't give a shit about actual workers with actual lives, whom
         | layoffs predominantly hurt.
         | 
         | I've been laid off, eight months after a hiring blitz for the
         | exact division I worked for. Now, I could've told them the
         | acquisitions they did were stupid and that the products were
         | never going to be profitable, but I don't live in Manhattan, so
         | those decisions are above me. But that didn't stop them from
         | juicing the stock price and ruining our lives anyway.
         | 
         | Fuck these companies. They could do better, and they choose not
         | to. And every last sycophant here is complicit.
        
       | JadoJodo wrote:
       | Having lived in the Boise (Idaho) area, I saw this happen over
       | and over with Micron and HP. I knew dozens of people who had
       | worked for one or the other (and sometimes both) and were then
       | let go in those companies frequent mass layoffs. One person I
       | knew had been laid off - rehired by Micron 3x in the span of
       | 10-years.
       | 
       | I think the biggest issue is that it is far too often the _first_
       | tool that companies reach for, instead of the last. Oh, the
       | market feels unstable? Better cut 5% "just to be safe". There's a
       | national event that might impact our business? We're going to
       | drop 10% of our employees before we know anything.
       | 
       | While it certainly doesn't apply to every company, I wonder what
       | it might look like for executive leadership to make a pledge that
       | it always comes from the top first: The leadership team agrees
       | that it will take a (public) $X financial cut for N months in the
       | event of a layoff-level event/period to help guide the ship
       | through the storm (with compensation on the other side). If it
       | works, you have the loyalty/respect of your employees. If it
       | doesn't, you do the layoffs anyway and those who remain know that
       | you tried.
        
         | DanielHB wrote:
         | In Europe where most countries are notoriously hard to fire
         | people they don't do layoffs like that "just to be safe", they
         | instead just cut-back on hiring more people during though
         | times.
         | 
         | It has an impact of morale, but not nearly as bad I imagine. I
         | wonder if that is one of the reasons why Europe companies tend
         | to be smaller companies, while US tend to be bigger. Expansion
         | is easier when you can fire at any time, smaller companies are
         | more likely to succeed if they don't over-hire and keep talent
         | around.
        
           | luckylion wrote:
           | I don't know whether it's a reason for size ("one market"
           | isn't just about taxes, it's also about culture and language,
           | and that's more different in the EU than the US), but it
           | definitely makes companies more risk-averse towards expansion
           | and disadvantages people with non-average backgrounds. The
           | risk your CV suggests (e.g. mental health, unemployment, non-
           | traditional career) gets multiplied if it's close to
           | impossible to fire you.
        
       | karparov wrote:
       | The article doesn't actually explain _why_. It claims _that_ they
       | don 't work and supplies statistical evidence. But _why_ don 't
       | they work? I've only really seen speculation...
        
         | slappyham wrote:
         | Have you ever been laid off?
        
           | karparov wrote:
           | Yes. And your point being ...?
        
       | alphazard wrote:
       | There is a theory about large complex systems which seems to be
       | true in biology and maybe applies here. Intentional downsizing
       | during times of stress works when it preferentially targets
       | defective or dysfunctional components of the larger system. The
       | system improves because the worst parts were removed.
       | 
       | Layoffs don't help companies unless they can reliably remove the
       | worst parts. At most large public companies, the cancerous
       | bureaucracy protects itself and the parts removed are closer to
       | median performers, or even above-median performers. The system
       | gets smaller and _less_ efficient.
       | 
       | Layoffs can be necessary to get the company to fit through a
       | certain sized hole (in the form of cash flow constraints), but it
       | won't be better at what it does on the other side of the hole, it
       | will just continue to exist.
       | 
       | Layoffs work when there is an _accurate_ discriminating mechanism
       | for who stays and goes. The best example of this (outside of
       | private equity turn-arounds that are not widely known) is
       | Twitter. Outside engineering talent was brought in as an oracle,
       | immune to Twitter 's bureaucracy. It reliably discriminated
       | between value-adding and not. As a result, the company became
       | incredibly lean and even consistently profitable.
        
         | davidcbc wrote:
         | Twitter was profitable before the takeover and now it is not
        
           | alphazard wrote:
           | Maybe we disagree about what "profitable" means. Posting an
           | authoritative source, so others can decide for themselves.
           | 
           | https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/twtr/financials/
        
             | davidcbc wrote:
             | So over the 4 years before the takeover they had a net
             | profit of $1.3 billion. What's their profit been in the 4
             | years since?
        
             | hkpack wrote:
             | I don't have that much of an experience analysing similar
             | reports, but it seems to me to be a healthy and growing
             | company?
             | 
             | If you mean a negative cash flow and operating income - it
             | doesn't mean much, as we need to know why.
             | 
             | Taking into account the jump in "Revenue", positive "EBIT"
             | and so on, I would imagine that it was because of some sort
             | of "strategic investment", like some acquisitions probably?
             | 
             | What am I missing? I would definitely be happy with such
             | reports if that was my company.
        
             | monocasa wrote:
             | Unless I'm missing something, your data you've voted seems
             | to be pre-acquisition.
             | 
             | Also, by all accounts their revenue has dropped so much
             | they're having issues even covering the loan payments, much
             | less having enough for any semblance of profit.
        
         | bdangubic wrote:
         | twitter is just about the worst example you could have used -
         | by wide margin...
        
           | dehrmann wrote:
           | It depends if you mean keeping Twitter the service
           | operational or Twitter the product relevant.
        
         | Ologn wrote:
         | By the late 1960s, software projects had finally reached a
         | certain size, and the particularities of managing these large
         | projects were discussed at NATO software engineering
         | conferences, and codified by Fred Brooks in 1975 in the
         | Mythical Man Month. The upshot being, software projects at
         | corporations can't be run in the same manner as non-software
         | projects. Yet at Fortune 500 companies today, and in the past
         | two years that includes at least some of the FAANGs, you see
         | them trying to run software projects and treating programmers
         | in the same manner they treat non-programmers, and it doesn't
         | work.
         | 
         | I just happened to watch some old talk or interview with Gabe
         | Newell recently, and he said industry thinking at the time
         | Valve was founded was of a certain kind, and Valve took the
         | opposite approach from the industry - the industry was looking
         | to get cheaper programmers, and Valve went the other way and
         | looked for the most expensive programmers, and so forth. Valve
         | has probably less than 400 people working there (don't know the
         | 2025 headcount), but makes billions a year in profit.
        
         | logsr wrote:
         | Large tech companies are inefficient and have very poor
         | engineering productivity but this is largely for systemic
         | reasons. They definitely do not have any mechanism for
         | identifying high performers.
         | 
         | The basic problem they face is that they pay a fixed wage for
         | complete IP ownership (horrible deal) and so they intentionally
         | do not measure and reward actual performance because they do
         | not want to compensate high performers based on the value they
         | create.
         | 
         | There isn't really a solution because these companies are
         | making rational profit maximizing decisions, it just happens
         | that mediocrity and managed decline of locked in revenue
         | streams is profit maximizing for them.
        
           | mattgreenrocks wrote:
           | > they intentionally do not measure and reward actual
           | performance because they do not want to compensate high
           | performers based on the value they create.
           | 
           | Ten years ago, an oft-repeated quote: "you're not paid what
           | you're worth, but for the value you create."
           | 
           | In light of that, is the argument that performance is
           | institutionally obscured so that devs don't realize how much
           | leverage they really have? I can see traces of that in seeing
           | shipped products as less the result of one/few devs working
           | hard and more as multiple teams, as you now have two levels
           | of personnel abstraction to diffuse potential leverage
           | (individual/their team, and the teams among themselves).
        
         | CPLX wrote:
         | There's absolutely no reason whatsoever to think Twitter's
         | financial performance improved after going private.
        
         | hobs wrote:
         | Outside engineering is not ever an oracle, and it has its own
         | interior motives and bureaucracy, firing people is generally a
         | one way street.
         | 
         | Twitter has literally issued authoritarian threats to
         | advertisers to come on its platform or else because of how much
         | its valuation has dropped and how much money has been lost -
         | this is the worst example of "engineering oracle fixing things"
         | I could possibly imagine.
        
         | cjaackie wrote:
         | Could I be missing something, but are you seriously promoting
         | layoffs? You must be trolling by using twitter as functional
         | example of why they work? I think sometimes I miss sarcastic
         | tones and I really hope i did with this one
        
         | srpablo wrote:
         | lmaoooooo buddy "oracle" implies they know something; the
         | people brought in to fire people at Twitter spent almost no
         | time in determining who was good or even how the company
         | worked, completely undermining your thesis. It was madness:
         | people were instructed to _print paper copies of their code_ to
         | bring into an office, like it was 1995. Remember geohot in a
         | Spaces saying  "the main problem with Twitter is that you can't
         | run it locally?", as if any company of that size has run that
         | way at any point in the last decade? Additionally, the horrible
         | communication and chaos made it even harder for performers to
         | perform. As others have pointed out, its stock lost a ton of
         | value, it performs worse financially, and as a product by
         | virtually every other metric has gone to hell (outages, CSAM
         | safety, spam, bots...).
         | 
         | You tell a decent story at the start, but your choice of
         | example couldn't be worse.
        
       | EasyMark wrote:
       | They work to get quarterly profits up/losses down, and that's
       | really all the matters to stockholders who want to decide to hodl
       | or sail.
        
       | snozolli wrote:
       | I've been through several layoffs, on both sides of the coin. The
       | one consistent factor I've seen is managerial incompetence.
       | Management will fail to provide any leadership or guidance to
       | employees, then blame them for not being productive enough. They
       | can't see their own incompetence, so they blame hiring practices
       | and keep ratcheting up interview difficulty. It's like corporate
       | America has evolved to protect the ego of the managerial class.
        
       | mathattack wrote:
       | I've been through several waves of corporate layoffs across many
       | industries.
       | 
       | Some observations:
       | 
       | 1 - It's rarely one round.
       | 
       | 2 - Companies tend to be the most thoughtful on the first round.
       | Then it looks easy and the precision (and severance) of future
       | cuts goes down. That's why it's smart to take a voluntary offer.
       | 
       | 3 - Cuts that are broad based ("Every department cuts 15%") are a
       | sign the company doesn't know what's going on or prefers harmony
       | over hard choices.
       | 
       | 4 - Layoffs can be a crutch for firms that don't do performance
       | management. (Less work to do a layoff than have managers counsel
       | bad performers out)
       | 
       | 5 - Managers should never promise "No layoffs"
        
       | yalogin wrote:
       | Layoffs are a blunt instrument. I don't know if al layoffs should
       | be seen through the same lens. I see layoffs as signals from the
       | companies. They see the future as unsure and so they want to
       | reduce costs. That should be an immediate layoff for the ceo and
       | his team
        
         | dehrmann wrote:
         | > That should be an immediate layoff for the ceo and his team
         | 
         | Maybe not quite that, but investors and the board (hah!) should
         | ask really hard questions about how they got there.
        
       | Workaccount2 wrote:
       | Real talk here, and I'm sorry for being "that guy"
       | 
       | Why do tech workers get so wrapped around the axle of layoffs
       | when most people are in a chronic state of tech job hopping? I
       | know multiple people who have worked their entire career thus far
       | without ever staying at a place for more than 3 or 4 years. Some
       | no more than two. Tech job culture is practically a mono culture
       | with "hop jobs" being a hallmark.
       | 
       | From an employers perspective it's not laying off a bunch of
       | family members (Southwest has an average tenure of 11.5 years),
       | it's laying off a bunch of people who were gonna dip in 6 months
       | to a year anyway.
       | 
       | I know this is controversial take, but recognize that the tech
       | industry is an outlier industry, with outlier amounts of money
       | and outlier amounts of volatility.
        
         | CaffeineLD50 wrote:
         | I resent the fake legal douche move of falsely asserting "low
         | performance" as the rationale for their cuts.
         | 
         | Some people work hard and take pride in their work. And on top
         | of their gaming down our wages with h1b workers and low benefit
         | contracting they have the gall to assert we're low performers
         | when what they want is a $20 million bonus for their execs.
         | 
         | But yeah, I see your point.
        
         | filoleg wrote:
         | I cannot speak for layoffs in all industries ever, but I agree
         | with your assessment of layoffs in big tech from personal
         | experiences.
         | 
         | I have way too many "lifer" friends in big tech who are deadly
         | scared of layoffs and job hopping. They are also the ones who
         | rarely got promoted and havent had a significant pay bump
         | pretty much ever.
         | 
         | On another hand, half my team at a big tech company got laid
         | off back at the start of 2023. 4 months later, I caught up with
         | them over drinks, and the results were rather interesting. They
         | all got around 4-6mo worth of severance pay, spent 2-3 months
         | just skiing/traveling/hiking/vacationing, then 1 month or so
         | interviewing, and then starting their new jobs shortly after.
         | All seemed rather happy, both with their new positions/pay
         | (which had a significant paybump) and, essentially, paid
         | vacation break they took right before.
         | 
         | It seems like the heavity majority of those stressed about
         | layoffs in big tech are lifers and those who are chronically
         | averse to and dread the interview process.
        
           | lumost wrote:
           | Big tech interviews tend to be daunting. Many long term
           | employees lose the skill, and fear the impact of work
           | interruption on their resume as well as their ability to get
           | in again.
           | 
           | Anecdotally, the LC bar for many firms has risen to the point
           | that passing requires at least one through of the question
           | before. If you Time bound your practice per question to 20
           | minutes, this means that you can solve most LC problems at
           | least once in around 8 weeks of 40 hour weeks. Or 6 weeks at
           | 60 hours.
           | 
           | Not a pleasant way to spend two months - but not impractical.
           | I'm unclear what employers are deriving from this exercise at
           | this point.
        
             | WalterBright wrote:
             | > I'm unclear what employers are deriving from this
             | exercise at this point
             | 
             | It filters out the complete frauds.
             | 
             | Yes, there are people who know all the right things to say
             | in a job interview, but cannot code at all. If you hire one
             | of them, it takes a bit to find out they cannot code, and a
             | bit longer to fire them, so you're out $$$$ paying their
             | salaries for nothing.
             | 
             | For example, a recruiter I know will ask a tech candidate
             | "what is 20% of 20,000?" A significant percentage cannot
             | answer the question. Some even cry. It's shocking.
             | 
             | A friend of mine was looking at getting a FAANG job. He was
             | worried about the leetcode tests. I suggested he spend a
             | month going through the leetcode books studying them - that
             | the return on his time investment doing that will be one of
             | the best ROIs he's ever done. He did, and got the job.
             | (Although the LC was just a first gate one had to go
             | through to get to the real job interview.)
             | 
             | Personally, I have no idea how I'd do on an LC test without
             | prep. But I don't have a problem with studying it to get a
             | top job.
        
               | indigodaddy wrote:
               | I get that perhaps you were using the proverbial "I" in
               | your last sentence as an example of something everyone
               | should be willing to do in/for their career, but does
               | someone of your stature even need a real interview, much
               | less a LC test, to obtain a top job? It's kind of funny
               | imagining a young tech bro interviewing you, tbh.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | It's an interesting question. I'll try to answer.
               | 
               | I generally do not use clever algorithms in my code. I
               | just use straightforward ones. Rarely, I might need a
               | better one and go looking for it (like a better hash
               | algorithm). I rarely use a data structure more
               | complicated than an array, list, binary tree, hash, or
               | single inheritance.
               | 
               | What I have, though, is decades of experience with what
               | works and what doesn't work. (My favorite whipping boy is
               | macros. Macros look like they are great productivity
               | boosters. It takes about 10 years to realize that macros
               | are a never-ending source of confusion, they just confuse
               | and obfuscate every code base that uses them. I could go
               | on about this! ...)
               | 
               | I have become pretty good at writing modules that
               | minimize dependencies, and pretty good at the user
               | interface design of a language.
               | 
               | But still, if the job wanted a leetcode test, I'd take
               | it, no problem. I'd study up first, though.
               | 
               | If a young tech bro was interviewing me, I'd suggest he
               | show me his best code, and I'd do a review of it :-) The
               | point of that would not be to humilate him, but to
               | demonstrate the value I can bring to improving code
               | quality.
               | 
               | If I was being interviewed for a job writing a faster
               | divide routine (the ones I wrote were shift-subtract,
               | slower but bulletproof), a better random number
               | generator, a cryptographically secure hash function, a
               | tighter compression algorithm, a faster sort, I'm not the
               | right guy for that.
        
               | indigodaddy wrote:
               | Thanks for that very interesting and insightful feedback!
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | P.S. I was once asked to review the code of a famous
               | programmer I won't name. I was shocked to discover that
               | the large codebase had 3 different implementations of
               | bubblesort in it. I replaced them all with a call to
               | qsort(). He asked me how I managed to speed it up :-/
               | 
               | We all have our blind spots. I do, too.
        
               | acdha wrote:
               | My favorite blind spot is how our definitions of quality
               | change over time. I knew someone who had a mature
               | codebase which a new developer made substantially faster
               | by removing his old optimizations. He'd measured very
               | real improvements back when he made that hand-rolled
               | assembly code on early Pentium generations but by the
               | time we revisited it less than a decade later the
               | combination of compiler and processor improvements meant
               | that the C reference implementation was always faster. (I
               | was assisting with the port to PowerPC and at first we
               | thought that it was just XLC being especially good there,
               | but then we tested it on x86 with GCC and found the same
               | result)
               | 
               | Beyond the obvious lesson about experience and sunk costs
               | it was also a great lesson about how much time you assume
               | you have for maintenance: when he'd first written that
               | code as a grad student he'd been obsessed with
               | performance since that was a bottleneck for getting his
               | papers out but as his career progressed he spent time on
               | other things, and since it wasn't broken he hadn't really
               | revisited it because he "knew" where it was slow. Over
               | time the computer costs eventually outweighed that
               | original savings.
        
               | ltbarcly3 wrote:
               | I have done probably 500 to 1000 tech screens for big
               | tech companies (as the interviewer) and this is
               | completely true.
               | 
               | I have interviewed _many_ people employed in tech as
               | programmers for their entire career and they can 't code.
               | I don't meen leetcode, I mean they get confused trying to
               | write brute force substring search. The nested for loop
               | seems to be too complex for them to keep in their head
               | all at once.
               | 
               | I have had numerous people cry. Again this was a screen,
               | not leetcode. I'm asking them to check if text has
               | mismatched parens, or find a substring. Things you do for
               | homework in your 2nd programming class freshman year.
               | Things every competent programmer can do while
               | chitchatting about the job.
               | 
               | I would estimate that more than 10% of screens are like
               | this, again these are employed people in the industry for
               | years, sometimes tens of years.
               | 
               | Edit: I understand that people can get flustered, I
               | understand that some people have trouble under pressure
               | or while being observed. That's why I pointed out
               | multiple times that the problems I gave are extremely,
               | EXTREMELY easy. I'm basically asking them to write down
               | their name and they sit and look at the pen like they've
               | never seen one before. If you can't write a 5 line
               | function to find whether a substring occurs in a larger
               | string when given 45 minutes, your choice of programming
               | language, and as many attempts as you need to debug and
               | try again you simply will not be able to do any useful
               | work as a programmer. If you don't know that to match
               | parens you need to use a stack (or at least that it's one
               | way to do it) you either have a very poor memory or no
               | training in computer science at all - either of which is
               | frankly disqualifying. Anyone _borderline competent_
               | would invent a stack when presented with this problem if
               | they hadn 't already been told this fact a dozen times
               | during their education or even light reading about
               | algorithms.
        
               | momocowcow wrote:
               | You are still not testing if they can code. But whether
               | under the scrutiny of another person, they can code.
               | Maybe this is important to you, maybe peer programming is
               | important to you for example. I remember a young dev who
               | couldn't pass such tests, as he would get too nervous,
               | yet he had written the core tech for many shipped
               | products. The type of guy you would just stick in dark
               | room. With age this type of stuff settles down.
        
               | giantg2 wrote:
               | I agree with both you and the parent to some degree. I
               | have experienced interviews that went badly because they
               | were in an IDE I wasn't familiar with, or in Leetcode
               | (never used it). So I'm distracted by how to use the tool
               | rather than how to code the solution. But I can also see
               | how stuff like finding a substring is easy - most
               | languages have a function for it. But at that point,
               | you're testing different things - problem-solving vs rote
               | memorization of a provided function.
               | 
               | I feel like a good middle is to allow Google for
               | documentation searches, not solution searches. Without
               | searching (or IDE with radix completion), I'd probably
               | fail the test for not knowing the syntax off the top of
               | my head.
        
               | alabastervlog wrote:
               | "Scrutiny of another" who's a peer or even a client is
               | super different from an interview.
               | 
               | The latter has more in common with an open mic night, the
               | prospect of which the vast majority of people are
               | terrified and would break down if they attempted it.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | My first attempts at public speaking were a frozen
               | horror. But I kept doing it, and it kept getting easier
               | and easier.
               | 
               | I recommend that when there's an opportunity to get up in
               | front of a mike, take it, and get comfortable with it.
               | It's a skill that will serve you well.
        
               | mixmastamyk wrote:
               | Some people are good coders but can't do it with an
               | adversarial person watching. I'm often one of them.
               | 
               | Might as well put a suitcase with $200k and a copper
               | clock ticking away on the table next to them.
        
               | bobthepanda wrote:
               | As someone who does these types of interviews on both
               | ends, something like this is why I like to start with an
               | outrageously simple question to break the ice.
               | 
               | Surprisingly, I have an 80% fail rate on the first
               | question usually, which is just "find the second largest
               | number in an array of numbers" for a 5 YOE role.
        
               | ltbarcly3 wrote:
               | I just saw that this comment was fading from downvotes.
               | 
               | I think HN is just overwhelmed with people who somehow
               | got hired into technical jobs but can't do them. Anyone
               | who thinks that 'finding second largest number in an
               | array' or 'finding if a string is a substring of another
               | string' are hard, or that the pressures of an interview
               | are a valid excuse for being unable to do it are simply
               | not intelligent enough to be successful in this field and
               | they are casting about for some excuse to protect their
               | ego. These are problems that a bright 12 year old with no
               | programming experience could do for fun, and these folks
               | are purporting to be educated, experienced,
               | _professional_ programmers.
               | 
               | As much as people like to say 'muh anxiety', I've yet to
               | meet someone who can't do very basic coding in an
               | interview but also they are capable of basic coding in
               | any other context. I would suggest that this sort of
               | person is so rare that you will probably never meet one
               | over the course of a normal career.
        
               | hibikir wrote:
               | What is really crazy about this though is that sometimes
               | it really is the interview setting, as people unused to
               | interviews can, at times, emotionally collapse. I have
               | seen people who are actually good programmers get wrecked
               | by simple questions because of their inability to handle
               | stress, and how the lack of interview practice turns a
               | simple exercise into a hellscape.
               | 
               | It's not as if testing for performance under stress is
               | useless: Tough on call rotations happen, and you might
               | need someone that does well under pressure at 3 am in the
               | morning. But the picture you get on a screening isn't as
               | clear as it appears.
        
               | geoka9 wrote:
               | Not to imply that you're wrong, but I've always been bad
               | at LC interviews, but surprisingly (for myself) passable
               | when called upon to troubleshoot and code up a hot fix in
               | the middle of the night. Maybe those are not entirely
               | similar types of pressures.
        
               | quinnirill wrote:
               | It's also not the same kind of stress. I've interviewed
               | many a candidate who were sweating and/or shaking at some
               | point of the interview (with heavy reassurance and me
               | trying to to steer the conversation towards and area
               | where they feel stronger), but they can often end up
               | being calm and reliable alert responders nonetheless. So
               | far I've seen very little if any correlation between
               | being able to handle interview stress and on-call stress.
        
               | insane_dreamer wrote:
               | Knowing the right answer and knowing the right answer
               | with a gun to your head are two different skills.
        
               | ezekiel68 wrote:
               | The other replies to this comment aren't wrong but I feel
               | they fail to take into account that (especially with
               | startups): having someone watch you code during an
               | interview is one of the the least stressful experiences
               | the person will face with the company - once the job
               | begins. Companies can't take on the risk of dealing with
               | a bunch of passive-aggressive bullcrap once the real code
               | reviews begin after the hire. Most tech job reqs contain
               | the words "Excellent written and verbal communication
               | skills" on purpose.
               | 
               | Imagine a person with a pilot's license refusing to fly
               | tandem for an airline interview.
        
               | acdha wrote:
               | > Imagine a person with a pilot's license refusing to fly
               | tandem for an airline interview.
               | 
               | That's not a great comparison since a pilot has already
               | passed substantially harder tests to get that license and
               | a flight is exactly what the job is. If you have a
               | candidate with a pilot's license you can assume at least
               | a baseline level of capability which you can't assume for
               | a software engineer. That has pros and cons but it
               | definitely means interviewing is a noisier process.
               | 
               | The other problem, however, is deeper: the job of flying
               | a plane is exactly what's tested to get a pilot's license
               | but what many places do for developer interviews is
               | wildly unlike the actual job so it's more like
               | interviewing pilots based on trivia questions about the
               | number of rivets on a B-52 and how well they can solve
               | 3-D puzzles, and then being surprised when there isn't
               | much correlation with real world performance. For
               | example, only at the most toxic companies will the
               | interview be one of the least stressful parts because the
               | rest of the job is a team effort. What makes the
               | interview challenges stressful is doing it without your
               | normal tools while someone else is looking for reasons to
               | fail you, but in a normal job your coworkers are trying
               | to help you succeed because even if you're not friends
               | you are all better off when your company succeeds. At a
               | startup, trying to ding someone for trivia challenges is
               | like hitting the iceberg to prove that the navigator made
               | a mistake.
        
               | throwaway151883 wrote:
               | > check if text has mismatched parens
               | 
               | I always try to give everyone I've interviewed the
               | benefit of the doubt. You never know what's going on in
               | their lives, and even if they fail a trivial question it
               | doesn't mean they are faking the ability to code.
               | 
               | I joined Facebook back in 2018. Didn't study at all for
               | the interview and passed somehow. Then I probably
               | conducted 200-300 interviews in my time there, so I
               | became quite familiar with the questions. My performance
               | ratings were all exceeds or greatly exceeds. I
               | voluntarily left on my own after four years to join a
               | unicorn startup. I didn't prep for that interview either
               | but passed it too. Well, the startup failed and many
               | people went back to Meta. So I actually prepared quite a
               | bit this time and scheduled a mock interview with them.
               | The mock interviewer said I did great and not to change a
               | thing. When it came time for the real screening
               | interview... I failed the matching parentheses question.
               | 
               | I generally try not to make excuses. Almost every
               | interview I've failed has clearly been my own fault. But
               | in this particular one the interviewer kept interrupting
               | me every two seconds and I absolutely could not think. I
               | had done matching parentheses many times before in
               | practice, but the constant interrupting rattled me to the
               | point where I totally lost focus and bombed it. Not a
               | great experience.
               | 
               | So yeah, I'd just recommend giving people the benefit of
               | the doubt. Everyone has difficult moments occasionally,
               | but it doesn't mean they're stupid or can't code.
        
               | __turbobrew__ wrote:
               | I run coding interviews at BIGCO. Half of the candidate
               | success relies on the skills of the interviewer. A bad
               | interviewer can bomb the best candidates.
               | 
               | Something I have changed my stance on a bit is automated
               | coding interviews. I used to be adamantly against a
               | company giving candidates automated code tests, but I see
               | now that it takes the interviewer out of the equation.
        
               | 3vidence wrote:
               | As an interviewer at Google, we arent given an exact list
               | of questions to ask or what to evaluate (there are broad
               | categories).
               | 
               | It is really entirely up to each interviewer how the
               | interview goes and they are usually scheduled between 2
               | other meetings so often the interviewer is distracted.
               | 
               | Very strange system imo, lots of randomness
        
               | al_borland wrote:
               | Pre-screening, depending on how it's done, could
               | eliminate good candidates.
               | 
               | There have been times I've received answers in interview
               | that weren't the written answers, but I looked it up
               | afterward and tested it out... and they were right. I
               | learned something news and tweaked the answer reference
               | as a result. If those questions were in the pre-screening
               | instead of asked directly by me, it would have filtered
               | out good people.
               | 
               | I remember fighting to get access to the pre-screen data
               | to see what the answers were and find if there were any
               | other cases like this, where the non-technical pre-
               | screener was filtering out potentially good candidates,
               | because we couldn't give them exhaustive answers to
               | questions being asked.
        
               | suzzer99 wrote:
               | Welcome to the wonderful world of coding under pressure,
               | which almost never occurs in the real world. It's a non-
               | issue when you're young and don't feel the pressure. But
               | when you have grey hairs in your beard and know you're
               | already walking in with two strikes, all of a sudden the
               | fog of war kicks in.
        
               | jjav wrote:
               | > I have interviewed many people employed in tech as
               | programmers for their entire career and they can't code.
               | 
               | Think about this contradictory statement for a while. Can
               | it actually be true? Or is there something else going on?
               | 
               | If the interviewee has nothing but sub-1yr stints on
               | their resume, perpetually getting fired before vesting at
               | any company, then yes, it's very possible they actually
               | can't code and just fake it at every interview.
               | 
               | But _everyone else_... if they have spent years at tech
               | companies writing production code then obviously they
               | know how to code. They might be great or maybe mediocre,
               | but guaranteed they at least know how to code.
               | 
               | So, if your interviewing technique is concluding
               | something that is obviously impossible, then start by
               | considering how to improve the interview technique.
        
               | al_borland wrote:
               | I know a lot of people who can tweak code that already
               | exists. However, if they are sitting in front of an empty
               | text editor and given a goal, they don't know how to
               | break the problem down and build a solution with the
               | tools the language gives them.
               | 
               | In a large environment, someone may rarely need to start
               | from nothing, so the interview format throws them.
               | 
               | That said, I think being able to break down a problem to
               | solve it with code is a really important skill. Without
               | it, the person will always have to lean on others to fill
               | that skill gap.
        
               | ltbarcly3 wrote:
               | The goal when hiring isn't to find someone who is barely
               | skilled enough to just slightly come out as better to
               | have on staff than not. In fact these are often the worst
               | hires as they slow everything down and create work for
               | you to find tasks they are capable of, but it seems
               | unfair to fire them because they aren't totally useless
               | all the time. You hire the best candidate overall, and
               | you are very far from describing that.
        
               | geoka9 wrote:
               | There's another extreme, too: people who can code up an
               | app in a matter of days, but can never learn to navigate
               | and successfully maintain a legacy code base (even their
               | own!).
        
               | suzzer99 wrote:
               | And there's no easy objective way to screen for this in a
               | job interview. So they pretend it doesn't exist and never
               | ask questions like: "Suppose you're designing a green-
               | field app that you think will grow over time like X, Y,
               | and Z. How would you design and organize your code so
               | that the app stays maintainable and flexible over time?"
               | 
               | I could talk for hours on this subject with concrete
               | examples if anyone ever asked.
               | 
               | I think another problem is that there are so few
               | engineers/architects who really "get it" on this subject.
               | I can only think of a few ex-coworkers with whom I could
               | have the kind of in-depth conversation about app design
               | and organization that I'm picturing.
               | 
               | I've never worked in big tech, always for startups or
               | non-tech corps with a few rock star devs and a lot of
               | decent devs. So maybe it's different at a FAANG. But in
               | my head I'm picturing a bunch of algo-geniuses whose code
               | turns into a big mess over time when requirements take a
               | right-turn and break all their beautiful abstractions.
               | I've worked on a few apps like that and it's not fun.
        
               | lordnacho wrote:
               | > I know a lot of people who can tweak code that already
               | exists. However, if they are sitting in front of an empty
               | text editor and given a goal, they don't know how to
               | break the problem down and build a solution with the
               | tools the language gives them.
               | 
               | But being able to break things down and come up with a
               | solution is not necessarily something that needs to be
               | done quickly, in the time you have for an interview.
               | Quite often I've been faced with a new problem and done
               | absolutely nothing visible for ages. Literally just
               | reading around the problem, asking questions, and
               | sketching in my mind without writing a single line of
               | code.
               | 
               | This is often faster and better than starting
               | immediately.
        
               | throwaway3572 wrote:
               | I'm an electrical engineer who does circuit design. I've
               | interviewed many electrical engineers over the years and
               | the situation of applicants having "years" of experience
               | while simultaneously not knowing how to design a single
               | circuit is real. In our field it's usually because
               | although the person's title is engineer, in practice,
               | they don't do any engineering. There's just a ton of
               | peripheral work (basically paperwork related to
               | operations and compliance), which is very important, but
               | is not design.
               | 
               | My guess is computer science has a similar issue.
               | 
               | Lots of people with programming in thier job title but
               | they don't actually program. And based on ltbarcly3's
               | empirical measurement, "lots" is above 10%. ;)
        
               | ltbarcly3 wrote:
               | 10% of applicants that make it to a phone screen. I
               | estimate that the number is much lower than 10% overall
               | because incompetent people with good looking resumes tend
               | to do a lot more interviews than good candidates.
        
               | visarga wrote:
               | > it takes a bit to find out they cannot code, and a bit
               | longer to fire them, so you're out $$$$ paying their
               | salaries for nothing
               | 
               | Not just that. They block the hiring process. Maybe there
               | was just that one open position on your team, and that
               | bad 3 month hire postponed a good hire by 6 months. It's
               | also very incomfortable to fire and start again.
               | 
               | My interviews contain questions that are basic, and any
               | new team mate should know. I keep asking them because 90%
               | of the candidates actually can't answer them well. You
               | should know what a "dot product" is if you want to work
               | as a ML engineer, that kind of stuff. Or be able to open
               | a text file and count word frequencies.
        
               | ezekiel68 wrote:
               | True words. It's not 'imposter syndrome' if one comes
               | across as an imposter (though it might have been just be
               | a bad day).
               | 
               | I can appreciate the gating process because it's a real
               | drag to get hired and then spend more time than necessary
               | not doing my work but trying to help coworkers catch up
               | on very basic and fundamental skills in order to be able
               | to collaborate with them.
        
               | eastbound wrote:
               | > For example, a recruiter I know will ask a tech
               | candidate "what is 20% of 20,000?" A significant
               | percentage cannot answer the question. Some even cry.
               | It's shocking.
               | 
               | During our interview, we ask candidates to design a
               | history system. The key is to realize that our database
               | is only 8Gb, and storing a year of updates is only 160Gb,
               | so $2pm in AWS. Once there, a simple DB table suits, no
               | need to set up Amazon S3.
               | 
               | So we ask them for the multiplication. First we give them
               | the data, and if they don't do the calculation, we nudge
               | them, then we ask them, then we write the multipliers for
               | them, then we take the calculator out and write the
               | result for them.
               | 
               | Those are Masters degrees. They can't even do
               | calculations, let alone getting it right, because 500MB x
               | 200 days a year = a few petabytes apparently. And after
               | that, they're exhausted, it's impossible to ask them the
               | rest of the questions like "So is it worth worrying about
               | a Rube Goldberg machine when you're in for $2 of AWS
               | costs?".
        
               | DarkContinent wrote:
               | Does your interview process require knowing cloud costs
               | off the top of your head? Because that's hard to track
               | tbh
        
               | eastbound wrote:
               | What the... no.
        
               | akdor1154 wrote:
               | Sounds like it requires knowing them to an order of
               | magnitude or so... Which honestly sounds like a pretty
               | good bar to have your team above?
        
             | Der_Einzige wrote:
             | Just do what everyone is doing today and use those AI tools
             | for cheating. There's a whole industry of invisible and
             | hard to detect leetcode AI cheating tools.
             | 
             | Glad they exist and I fully support all candidates using
             | them aggressively.
        
             | mym1990 wrote:
             | I definitely feel that first part. I landed in a nice
             | company in SF about 8 years ago and am still here. The
             | culture has changed a lot but I often find myself doubting
             | whether I could repeat the whole thing or if I got lucky.
             | (The work is fine, and the company is one of the good ones
             | I feel, so no real qualms there).
        
             | lr4444lr wrote:
             | I agree, but I look at it like trying out for an athletic
             | team.
             | 
             | Once you're on the team, you are mostly practicing plays,
             | doing clinics, and simulating competition, but to get on
             | the team in the first place you have to prove your general
             | fitness by running, say, a 6 minute mile.
             | 
             | You may not be able to do that again easily right away once
             | you've been on the team for a while because you don't
             | practice running for pure time at that distance, but it's a
             | level of fitness you should be easily able to obtain again
             | if you had to, and it's a very useful benchmark to a scout.
             | 
             | When you're laid off, it's time to start doing that
             | "roadwork" again. It will be a bit hard at first in
             | practice, but if you've been a solid contributor, you
             | should be able to get fit enough again to prove that.
        
             | bbqfog wrote:
             | This is a persistent myth in our industry. If you're a good
             | manager, you can tell within minutes if someone is "for
             | real", if you can't, you aren't qualified to be hiring
             | people. Have you even looked at their GitHub?
        
           | munificent wrote:
           | A few months of skiing sounds nice, but not as nice as the
           | profound pleasure of working on a team of people I've know
           | and cared about for over a decade.
           | 
           | You're going to spend half your waking life at work. For me,
           | that's too much time to not want to do so at a place where I
           | have real relationships with my coworkers.
        
             | mym1990 wrote:
             | This is ultimately what some of the risk comes down to: you
             | invest time(a decade is a long time!) into creating
             | meaningful relationships at work and one day you come in to
             | have your key card de-activated and some corporate speak as
             | to why. There are certainly people working on truly
             | meaningful projects out there, with teams they trust and
             | adore...but for most of the workforce, even in tech, its
             | just work and any fun had at work is a great cherry on top.
        
               | andrewlgood wrote:
               | How is this different than the manager who has spent
               | years developing an employee - making sure they are
               | getting the experiences they need to build a better
               | career, hiring the right people to complement the team,
               | fighting for bonuses and pay raises - only to have them
               | quit to join the next company for a 10% raise. It is
               | difficult to build a long-term culture when society seems
               | to expect job hopping to rapidly advance a career.
               | 
               | On a related note, it is odd that HN comments rarely seem
               | to include a manager's perspective.
        
               | nine_k wrote:
               | I've never seen people leaving great jobs for a 10%
               | raise. It's always something else: a much bigger benefit,
               | or a significant downside of the current job, which are
               | not widely publicized. Instead, I've seen people going to
               | a _lower_ -paying position for a more interesting job, a
               | chance to learn new hot thing hands-on, a different set
               | of responsibilities, etc.
        
               | al_borland wrote:
               | I worked with a guy who left for more money, found out
               | the grass wasn't greener, and came crawling back. Then
               | did it again. For some reason they hired him back a
               | second time. When he quit the 3rd time I think that was
               | the final bridge burned. I asked him about it and he said
               | money was his singular metric for choosing a job, he was
               | always looking, and would never stop.
        
               | nine_k wrote:
               | I once left for a 50% raise, and once for a large chunk
               | of equity in a promising startup (and being able to do
               | early-stage formative work). But 10%?..
        
               | bbqfog wrote:
               | An experienced manager would know that is how the game is
               | played and act accordingly. Don't get emotionally
               | attached to _any_ work relationships. It 's
               | transactional, keep that in mind.
        
               | andrewlgood wrote:
               | Agreed. Shouldn't employees behave/feel the same way?
        
               | bbqfog wrote:
               | Absolutely.
        
               | al_borland wrote:
               | This mentality is why people don't get promoted
               | internally, which leads to the job hoping in the first
               | place.
               | 
               | Fix this and a lot of the job hoping problem goes away.
        
               | bbqfog wrote:
               | Job hopping is not a problem, it's how you get ahead
               | quickly.
        
             | dietr1ch wrote:
             | It's really cool unless your visa is on the line. At least
             | the US is falling apart fast enough that maybe it's not a
             | bad idea to leave and stay out.
        
             | bbqfog wrote:
             | Wow, I couldn't disagree more. My personal life is what I
             | enjoy, the random people I work with to make money and will
             | be gone as soon as I quit or get laid off, well... I just
             | don't want them to be toxic. I already have a ton of
             | friends, I don't need to convert work people into my social
             | life. Skiing for a few months sounds super amazing though!
        
             | theoreticalmal wrote:
             | You need to find better ski spots!
             | 
             | Just joking :) I firmly respect your opinion on the matter,
             | and understand different people value different things in
             | life.
        
           | cmrdporcupine wrote:
           | This story is changing. There is now an oversaturation of us
           | ex-BigCo people in the market. I quit Google before the
           | layoffs, after being there for 10 years and sick of it. The
           | first year was serious ego boost, having Google on the resume
           | opened doors all over the place. Then my ex-coworkers started
           | getting laid off and things began to shift.
           | 
           | Now I know people I used to work with who have been without
           | work for many months and having a hard time getting
           | interviews.
           | 
           | Granted, I'm not in the Bay Area, so. But the market is
           | saturated.
        
             | screye wrote:
             | Yep, a sabbatical is taken to mean laid off and low
             | performer. Have to sign an offer before leaving the old
             | one.
        
             | ltbarcly3 wrote:
             | Its not that the market is saturated, its that a lot of
             | incompetent ex googlers are interviewing now. People
             | usually have a pretty good idea they can't do their job.
             | They find a niche where a manager is not paying attention,
             | or they can obfuscate and take credit for others work, etc.
             | These people don't usually job hop, the interviews are way
             | too hard and then they are very unlikely to find another
             | long term safe niche to hide in. So previously seeing
             | google on a resume correlated highly with strong
             | competence. A lot of people laid off from google are
             | complete incompetents. A lot were hard working geniuses
             | too, but it doesn't take many interviews where a exgoogler
             | is completely useless to spoil the brand.
             | 
             | The reputation for googlers on the market right now is very
             | bad, and it will keep getting worse as the group of ex
             | googlers who are basically unemployable keep interviewing
             | over and over and over.
        
               | shagie wrote:
               | There's also the "we can only pay a third of what Google
               | paid you..." and given two candidates that interview
               | equally well, one is former Google and appeared to be
               | making $300k and another is from somewhere where they
               | were making $70k before...
               | 
               | I'd argue for the $70k person. They are less likely to
               | have experienced lifestyle inflation and looking at this
               | position as a "slumming it until they can get a job
               | making $300k+ again."
               | 
               | It further complicates the issue that most companies
               | don't have Google scale problems and don't have the
               | engineering culture for a Google scale solution.
               | 
               | There are several factors working _against_ even not
               | incompetent former Google employees - especially if their
               | experience is entirely within Big Tech.
               | 
               | A bit ago a former Tesla person was in the set of
               | interviews and it became clear that they wanted to make
               | the organization that was considering hiring them into a
               | copy of how Tesla works... and that wasn't something that
               | was going to be doable. The post interview discussion was
               | "this person is going to try to make us into a copy of
               | Tesla for six months, and then leave shortly after they
               | realize that we weren't a place that _could_ become
               | another Tesla. "
               | 
               | Big Tech experience may be a positive signal for getting
               | hired at other Big Tech companies... but it can be a
               | negative signal at a company that isn't trying hiring for
               | an organization that can't become a Big Tech company -
               | especially if that is the only thing that is known.
               | 
               | Hiring isn't necessarily picking the "best" person for
               | the role, but rather the least risky. Former Big Tech
               | employees are often riskier than other candidates given
               | their lifestyle expectations and the mismatch of the
               | engineering cultures.
        
               | cmrdporcupine wrote:
               | In part true, for sure.
               | 
               | Personally when I left Google and interviewed elsewhere I
               | made clear to potential employers two major things:
               | 
               | 1. I never expected to be paid "Google level" money
               | again. I was nowhere near high up in the pay tier there,
               | but it was still almost twice what local shops were
               | paying, at times (depending on how RSUs worked out, etc.)
               | 
               | Google can pay what it can because of the ads firehose,
               | and it was actually, more than anything, a strategy used
               | to deprive the competition of talent.
               | 
               | 2. I never actually _liked_ the Google internal culture,
               | so although I was there for 10 years I was constantly
               | aware of the things that I didn 't like and the things I
               | would _not_ be trying to bring over to future gigs. And I
               | had 10+ years work experience _before_ Google. Which didn
               | 't serve me well while I was inside Google, but
               | definitely has afterwards.
        
             | yodsanklai wrote:
             | > The first year was serious ego boost, having Google on
             | the resume opened doors all over the place.
             | 
             | Before I worked in FAANG, My subjective view of big tech
             | SWEs was they were very skilled, in a different league.
             | 
             | My current view is that it "just" takes very good
             | preparation and a decent resume to get in. And they've
             | hired so many people that it's not so special anymore to be
             | an "ex-Google". There are just a lot of them.
             | 
             | That being said, I think someone who gets hired in such a
             | company, and manage to stay for many years has to be quite
             | productive and competent. Especially if they reached higher
             | levels.
        
               | cmrdporcupine wrote:
               | Competent, yes. Intelligent, yes.
               | 
               | Productive, not necessarily.
               | 
               | Google is not a "produce a lot of code" place. It's a
               | careful and deliberate and systematic type of place.
               | 
               | One thing I think ex-Google does bring especially to the
               | table is a disdane for over-complicated and overly trend-
               | driven solutions.
               | 
               | For one Google's internal review culture is (or at least
               | was when I was there) very stringent. Pointless
               | complexity and showboating is usually spanked.
               | 
               | For two, because Google basically rolls its own
               | everything in regards to frameworks and the like,
               | developers who come out of there have been mainly cured
               | of "flavour of the month" and "my ego wants us to use
               | this new shiny new-coloured tech".
        
           | tayo42 wrote:
           | I don't get how people get jobs so easily. It took me like 8
           | months and it was extremely stressful.
        
             | ltbarcly3 wrote:
             | They have connections from previous jobs who will vouch for
             | them.
        
               | ryandrake wrote:
               | How does this work, though? Every company I've worked for
               | has an HR system, and resumes flow through it, and
               | there's a set process. If I have worked with a candidate
               | in the past and highly recommend them, all I can do is
               | submit their resume into the great void and check a box
               | "Recommend". I don't have any other power. There is no
               | "Skip the interview, I _vouch_ for him! " button that I
               | can push.
        
               | yodsanklai wrote:
               | That's how it works in my company too. The recruitment
               | teams barely work with the engineering teams themselves.
               | You may know a very good fit for the team, possibly even
               | a previous member/intern of that team, and you won't be
               | sure you can put the person into the recruitment loop.
               | And then they'll need to pass the interviews...
        
               | grandempire wrote:
               | And at the end of the day the HR work for your VP. And
               | your VP needs people to do things, and if he hears you
               | are a good person and you are available it will happen.
               | HR is just a layer of process. Make them happy in regards
               | to the things they care about.
        
               | tmh88j wrote:
               | > How does this work, though? Every company I've worked
               | for has an HR system, and resumes flow through it, and
               | there's a set process. If I have worked with a candidate
               | in the past and highly recommend them, all I can do is
               | submit their resume into the great void and check a box
               | "Recommend
               | 
               | I haven't worked for any massive companies with thousands
               | of employees where there might be a lot of bureaucracy,
               | but the few I've worked for ranged from ~100-700 and it
               | was pretty easy to get interviews for referrals. One of
               | my employers encouraged referrals and offered bonuses if
               | it led to a hire.
        
               | vunderba wrote:
               | It's probably related to the size of the company. Most of
               | the companies I've worked for in the past have been
               | between 50-200 employees across the entire org. The dev
               | teams were usually around a 10-20 people and the director
               | of R&D often encouraged us (the devs) to recommend new
               | hires. They still had to pass through HR but it was more
               | of a formality and the director had the proverbial
               | majority vote.
               | 
               | Smaller teams are also more tight-knit so recommending a
               | new potential dev wasn't a matter of process - it was
               | literally head down a few doors and have a chat with the
               | director.
               | 
               | I'm sure it's significantly different for huge
               | enterprises where even the teams within the R&D
               | department are heavily siloed.
        
               | ltbarcly3 wrote:
               | If you are regarded very highly, if you suggest to your
               | manager there's another person out there like you they
               | will work the system to get that person lined up for an
               | interview ASAP. If you aren't very highly regarded, your
               | suggestions will be put into the HR system and never
               | looked at.
               | 
               | If your manager is inexperienced or not very good then
               | there's nothing you can do about that.
        
             | mehphp wrote:
             | Interviewing is a skill of its own. Some people are really
             | good at it.
        
           | screye wrote:
           | Has to do with H1b visas.
           | 
           | Post layoff, a person on H1B has 2 months to sign a new job
           | offer or they must leave the country.
           | 
           | Majority of Indian and Chinese H1bs do not have green cards,
           | and are the main group that suffers. Some of these folks are
           | well into their 30s, with kids and houses in the US.
        
             | sashank_1509 wrote:
             | I'm familiar with H1b visas. Yes it's an irritating
             | situation for an immigrant to be in but it's not as bad as
             | you make it out to be.
             | 
             | If you have good life savings, you can convert to tourist
             | visa, and stay in the country for an additional 6 months
             | and a higher hassle when restarting your career.
             | 
             | You can leave the country, and get back as long as your H1b
             | is still valid.
             | 
             | If your spouse is working, you can be convert to being a
             | dependent on them with H4 visas.
             | 
             | At the end of the day I think the government should not let
             | people end up in such a situation. After the 6 year H1b
             | deadline, I would prefer if the government just sends a
             | notice to those that it thinks can immigrate long term and
             | send the rest back. At least then we won't have the
             | ridiculous situation of upending families and children who
             | have started schooling just because their parents lost a
             | job.
        
           | plussed_reader wrote:
           | What was the age range of the referred 2023 sample of
           | workers?
        
           | giantg2 wrote:
           | Yeah, I make the same adjusted for inflation that I did when
           | I got my last/only promotion 10 years ago. I have grey hair,
           | a disability, and a family that relies on the health
           | insurance. Switching or being laid off is a risky proposition
           | for me. It sounds like all your examples are young, childless
           | people (who else could take a month off to go vacationing?).
           | Life is much harder for some of us.
        
             | andrewlgood wrote:
             | I understand the trade offs you mention. I do disagree with
             | your assertion that "Life is much harder for some of us."
             | You have chosen a different payoff - your family, certainty
             | of health insurance, etc. You get the benefits that
             | children bring and the joy of being a parent. The "young,
             | childless people" have made a different choice - more
             | freedom in employment decisions but no joy from children.
             | Everyone has their own cost/benefit analyses on these
             | issues. That is life.
        
               | margalabargala wrote:
               | Your good health is an invisible crown that can only be
               | seen by those who do not wear it.
        
               | hakaneskici wrote:
               | Wisdom speaks. Hidden gem of this thread.
        
               | soulofmischief wrote:
               | What a great saying. I feel this in my very core.
               | 
               | Dealing with poverty in my youth, homeless at 16, no
               | parents to help me, debilitating ADHD, tourettic OCD,
               | bipolar type II, CPTSD from 10 years of intense childhood
               | physical/emotional abuse, my full-ride college
               | scholarships illegally stolen from me by a high school
               | who knew I was homeless and had no recourse and allowed a
               | teacher to illegally modify my grades out of pure spite,
               | malnourished, intense, crippling sciatica, fused lumbar
               | discs, possible fibromyalgia, and then developing
               | excruciating daily pains and physical disability which
               | greatly impacted my life and sometimes made me suicidal,
               | which turned out to be an autoimmune disorder that took
               | 10 years for doctors to figure out... an extremely
               | intense case of gout developing since my teens...
               | 
               | I just keep pushing on but every day I see people who
               | take so much for granted, and who are so ready to pass
               | judgement without appreciating the basic privilege of
               | good health.
               | 
               | I've had to deal with so much struggle that the average
               | person wouldn't even want to take the time to hear all of
               | it much less believe it, once someone momentarily
               | realizes that they'd have it comparatively easy compared
               | to others, they often get defensive as they begin to
               | realize that their life doesn't have nearly as many
               | barriers as they've convinced themselves, and they have
               | to come to terms with not applying themselves harder.
               | It's easier for them to be dismissive and tell me, "all
               | your problems would go away if you worked out more" or
               | tell me to get on a keto diet, or whatever have you, as
               | if I haven't tried every single thing I can think of.
               | 
               | And the insane thing is I am still quite privileged
               | compared to some people in war-torn countries, even if
               | they are able to move around without swallowing a
               | truckload of ibuprofen. Reminding myself of that is a
               | source of strength and determination to keep moving
               | forward.
        
               | nthingtohide wrote:
               | "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved
               | you from." -- Cormac McCarthy, No Country for Old Men
        
               | andrewlgood wrote:
               | How do you know I have good health? What an incredibly
               | smug comment meant to silence someone with no basis in
               | fact.
        
               | margalabargala wrote:
               | Well, the person you originally replied to mentioned
               | having a disability, and your response was "yeah but you
               | have kids so really you chose this and also I disagree
               | that life is harder for some people."
               | 
               | The generous interpretation would be that you have
               | sufficiently good health that you do not have to
               | structure your life around it, and therefore lack
               | understanding of the challenges faced by those who do.
               | 
               | The alternate interpretation, that you _do_ understand
               | and choose to ignore and dismiss, would be rather less
               | generous to you.
        
               | giantg2 wrote:
               | Haha you must be young. It's entirely possible young
               | people will make the same choices and face the same
               | realities I currently do. They just havent gotten to that
               | stage yet. Even comparing my life now to my life 10 years
               | ago would show the younger me had an easier life.
               | However, having a disability is not a choice, and in
               | general makes life harder than those without a
               | disability. Don't get me wrong - I believe life is hard
               | for almost everyone at at least one point or another in
               | unique ways and to varying degrees.
        
               | andrewlgood wrote:
               | Actually, I am not young. I just retired and have been
               | thinking about my life, career, etc. I do not have a
               | disability (my wife may disagree) and I agree it makes
               | life more challenging (wouldn't be called a disability
               | otherwise). I also agree with you that life can be hard,
               | children are born with health challenges, children make
               | poor decisions with terrible consequences, spouse dies,
               | you get cancer, etc. We all need to get through these.
               | That does not change the fact that we all have decisions
               | to make everyday about our careers, our families, our
               | health, our financial situation, and so on. When we look
               | at those who made different decisions, it does not
               | necessarily mean they made better or worse decisions,
               | just different decisions.
               | 
               | I have been thinking about this a lot recently. A former
               | boss and good friend who is incredibly smart and
               | effective in the work place asked why the two of us had
               | never gone the PE route and been more successful. While
               | he is very successful by most standards, he sees people
               | flying private jets all the time who do not appear more
               | skillful, yet have been more successful. As I think on
               | this, I feel I simply was never willing to go all in on
               | the risk required to achieve that level of financial
               | success. I tried co-founding a company once when I was 28
               | while engaged and importantly, before children. I felt I
               | could take the risk and if I failed, could bounce back. I
               | did fail - company did ok but my I ended up disliking
               | working with my senior partner - and I did bounce back,
               | ending up at GE.
               | 
               | After that, I did not feel comfortable taking that level
               | of risk until my children were off to college and no
               | longer dependent on me an I had enough money saved that
               | my wife and I would be ok for a long time. The people I
               | know who have been jet-money financially successful took
               | huge risks. They were all in on their venture(s).
               | Frequently this cost them their marriage and/or
               | relationships with the children. This was their choice.
               | Their cost/benefit analysis to optimize their success
               | criteria. Some regret the decisions - they underestimated
               | the effort and impact on those they cared about. However,
               | most have not. They are happy with how things have turned
               | out.
               | 
               | Different strokes for different folks.
        
               | nthingtohide wrote:
               | The other factor you are missing in your analysis of PE
               | route is the number of musical chairs are limited. There
               | can only be 1 taylor swift not millions. So the choice is
               | not for everyone. Even if everyone made that choice, a
               | million taylor swifts will not happen. Surviorship bias
               | is real.
        
               | fifticon wrote:
               | your argument sounds like "some people choose to do the
               | dishes, some of us choose to let other people do the
               | dishes".
               | 
               | Some of the "free choices" you claim people can make,
               | will only be possible if some other people don't make
               | those same choices.
        
               | paulryanrogers wrote:
               | People don't chose the abilities or disabilities they're
               | born with, nor those they receive at the hands of others.
               | 
               | Many also don't have the choice to start a family, no
               | matter how badly they want it.
        
             | tocs3 wrote:
             | Not passing any judgements on any life choices here, but
             | occasional months off sounds like a good thing. I would not
             | necessarily need to go anywhere to enjoy (make use of) the
             | time. The notion of getting a month off with pay sounds
             | good.
        
               | giantg2 wrote:
               | That sounds good, so long as there is similar employment
               | at the end of it. As a sabbatical it sounds great. As a
               | layoff, the uncertainty sounds crushing. It could take
               | months to find a new position, especially with the
               | disadvantages I have, I would likely need to start
               | looking immediately and wouldn't be able to enjoy it.
        
               | bb88 wrote:
               | Yeah, it's the same problem I have when the 20 somethings
               | use the term "funemployment".
               | 
               | If you're single and have no responsibilities, sure. The
               | second you have a mortgage, medical conditions that need
               | health insurance, or need money because you had a family
               | emergency and had to dip into savings, it's not
               | "funemployment" at all.
        
             | suzzer99 wrote:
             | Yeah, the prospect of layoffs hits a little different when
             | you're in your 50s. I have some non-techie friends in their
             | 50s (sales, project management) who have been looking for a
             | job for years. I've even heard third-hand about some good
             | programmers in their 50s in the same boat, although I don't
             | know them personally.
             | 
             | The last time I was looking for a job at age 48, I
             | interviewed at a bunch of startups and only got a second
             | interview from one. It was clear that most of them were
             | never going with someone my age unless I'd written a book
             | or had patents or something (or was ex-FAANG), even if they
             | didn't consciously realize that.
        
               | giantg2 wrote:
               | Yep. The subliminal message I'm getting from my current
               | managers is that I should just be a good little disabled
               | person and work as a Walmart greeter. It's turning into
               | harassment at this point. Just all sorts of BS. Like
               | telling me they are doing _so_ much for me, when my ADA
               | accommodation is weekly 1-on-1s with the manager and my
               | tech lead. Is that really a lot? There are people without
               | disabilities getting weekly 1-on-1s with their managers.
               | Maybe the weekly tech lead meeting is more than others
               | get, but it doesn 't seem that hard. I got told my
               | productivity looked bad. I asked if he ran the numbers -
               | he didn't. He didn't even look at my productivity before
               | telling me it looked bad. I ran the numbers and I was in
               | line with my peers. I would think that's the definition
               | of bias... nobody gives a fuck. I didn't get my
               | accommodation for 6 months last year and then they gave
               | me a bad rating based on opinon and not metrics. They
               | said me not getting the accommodations wasn't a factor in
               | my performance (how?).
        
           | gwbas1c wrote:
           | I stayed in the same job for nearly a decade, it got really
           | interesting in the second half; in a way that it never would
           | have gotten if I had job hopped every 3 to 5 years.
           | 
           | That being said, once I got bored in the job, I sniffed out
           | that the parent company wanted to lay a few people off, and
           | hinted that I was open to it. It worked out well for me.
           | 
           | I was just too busy in my personal life to look for a job on
           | the side, and honestly I didn't want to walk away halfway
           | through a project.
        
             | stogot wrote:
             | How do you bring up that you want to be laid off?
        
           | nquicksherlock wrote:
           | I don't think that this narrative works in the current job
           | environment. But nice try.
        
           | ryandrake wrote:
           | Those "lifer" friends may just be later in their career,
           | though. Your ability to significantly advance your
           | compensation depends on how early in your career you are. You
           | will plateau at some point, but early on it makes a lot of
           | sense to job hop. My first job hop was for +66% comp
           | increase. My next was for about +25%, next for +15% or so.
           | Eventually you hit a ceiling. After 30 years in the industry,
           | my last job change was probably about +0.05%. I expect if I
           | have to interview again, it's a toss up whether I'd get a
           | higher or _lower_ offer.
        
           | yodsanklai wrote:
           | Sure, maybe that's how people in their 30s living in NYC or
           | bay area feel about layoffs. But when you're older, have a
           | family, and live in an area with a less dynamic job market,
           | you may see things differently.
        
             | bloomingkales wrote:
             | Why does it have to be an age thing? Some men and women are
             | players and the game is the game to them. Those who are
             | naturally monogamous would be stressed in a game like that.
             | Constantly uprooting is a stressful lifestyle and can truly
             | be torture (as evidenced by constant anxiety, no way to
             | be). I can promise you people who are job hopping are
             | hopping around other things in life (friends, family,
             | relationships, projects, interests, roles, identities).
             | It's a whole way of being.
             | 
             | Edit: This is not a judgement, but if you felt like it was,
             | I very much want to hear about it.
        
               | darkwater wrote:
               | > Why does it have to be an age thing? Some men and women
               | are players and the game is the game to them.
               | 
               | Yes, buuut many will be players from 25 to 35 (with some
               | degree of flexibility), that's why it's still an age
               | thing. Yes, there are persons that are players for life,
               | sure. But IME they are a minority.
               | 
               | Or maybe I'm just projecting, who knows?
        
               | neumann wrote:
               | Doesn't have to be an age thing, but it often is an age
               | thing. Because lots of us were carefree before dependents
               | and a mortgage as well.
               | 
               | Unexpected or deliberate change was an opportunity, a
               | challenge, a stimulant! Job hopping (or hopping around
               | relationships) when young can be about exploring the
               | world, finding yourself and your values and isn't
               | inherently bad.
               | 
               | Then you discover what you are good at doing and that you
               | like doing and dedicating time to (or perhaps another
               | person with whom you want to spend all your time) and
               | your priorities change.
               | 
               | Then you might have kids and the work becomes more about
               | financial security for the family then about your
               | personal growth. And so you aren't looking at layoffs and
               | unexpected change as opportunity because you are happy
               | with what you've got.
               | 
               | It just often is an age or 'stage of life' thing for many
               | people.
        
           | mschuster91 wrote:
           | > It seems like the heavity majority of those stressed about
           | layoffs in big tech are lifers and those who are chronically
           | averse to and dread the interview process.
           | 
           | Not helped by the fact a lot of interview processes - unless
           | you can rely on word-of-mouth _and_ the corporate structure
           | allows for shortcuts - are byzantine, maddening and /or don't
           | have much relations to the work one will be doing afterwards.
           | No fuck you I'm in for a sysop/cloud position, I won't waste
           | my time doing Fizzbuzz. Give me a laptop with internet and an
           | actual work task if you want to judge my competence.
        
         | clusterhacks wrote:
         | Maybe that perception that people chronically job hop is not
         | true? I would welcome a data source that shows chronic job
         | hopping is the norm.
         | 
         | Anecdotally speaking, I spent 6+ish years at my first "old
         | tech" company. My org in this (very large) company was
         | constantly simmering with resource actions (mostly small scale
         | layoffs). There was lots of negative energy there. I left to
         | take a programming/data analytics gig in a large, privately
         | held financial company that had never had a layoff. This was
         | unfortunately timed, 2 years later the financial crisis of 2008
         | kicked off and I (and my entire team) were all laid off. I have
         | been with my current employer for approaching two decades and
         | several of my peers have been on our team for that much time.
         | 
         | I have had a SINGLE manager in that time window. I can't even
         | name all the managers I had in my first job due to near-
         | constant re-orgs and layoffs.
        
           | DamonHD wrote:
           | I contracted/consulted around London for decades, and though
           | I was with some clients for many years in total, others were
           | much shorter, and short entries on a CV were not seen as a
           | red flag AFAIK.
           | 
           | (Well, there was one hiring manager idiot who could not
           | conceive of anything other than linear non-concurrent
           | contracts as being honest - that interview did not go well,
           | but I dodged a bullet!)
        
           | Ancalagon wrote:
           | Another anecdote from my part. I graduated in roughly 2015.
           | I've had 5 software eng jobs since then. Each one I've had at
           | least 2 different managers in the average 2 years I spent in
           | each. My latest role, however, I was at for 2.5 years and had
           | 6(!) managers. I had originally intended to stay at that role
           | longer term but it was obvious the constant managerial
           | turnover was a negative for my career growth - so I hopped
           | again.
           | 
           | I've not experienced a layoff, but I also think its extremely
           | abnormal to be in a position for so long and only have one
           | manager.
        
           | ajkjk wrote:
           | It seems impossible to think that it's not true given how
           | fundamental it is to (new) tech culture.
        
             | ElevenLathe wrote:
             | I think it's possible that the majority of tech workers
             | aren't hoppers, but the majority of applicants are. This
             | just stands to reason, since hoppers aren't doing much
             | applying and interviewing. This would tend to make
             | interviewers think that this is a dominant strategy even if
             | it isn't really.
             | 
             | It's also the case that the "everything is transactional,
             | fuck your coworkers, leave your job the minute you can
             | plausibly say you learned something and move on, chase
             | impact at any cost because you only have one career" live-
             | to-work contingent is just much louder online, especially
             | here. After all, these are people that are investing a lot
             | in their career, while IME most of my coworkers, even
             | managers (though I don't personally know very many VP-and-
             | up managers) are work-to-live people, mostly interested in
             | their families and hobbies, and seem to rarely post on
             | forums like this.
             | 
             | In any case, I'm fairly certain that there are (or were
             | until recently) Labor Department researchers who have
             | figured this all out empirically and could give us an
             | answer if we knew where to look.
        
         | whiplash451 wrote:
         | The thing is, the tech industry is also an outlier in a sense
         | that the quality of the job you find varies _massively_
         | depending on (1) the timing, sometimes literally by a few weeks
         | and (2) whether you already have a job or not.
         | 
         | And so, layoffs are not "just another bump" in people's career.
         | They represent a major net negative for people who would
         | otherwise have much more control over the trajectory.
        
         | atrettel wrote:
         | This is an interesting question to ask, though I personally
         | would not attribute it to "culture" as much as it may be a
         | product of the environment people are put in. From my
         | experience, there are a lot of jobs that make it difficult to
         | continue past a few years, so job hopping is the inevitable
         | outcome of that. I think many companies need to examine why
         | _they_ have a lot of turnover instead of attributing it all to
         | individual employees.
         | 
         | And to be frank, layoffs are scary for any industry, because
         | they usually are correlated with layoffs at other companies. A
         | rising tide lifts all boats, but a sinking tide is difficult to
         | escape. You might be laid off at a time when there is no other
         | job to hop to.
        
           | bigtimesink wrote:
           | > there are a lot of jobs that make it difficult to continue
           | past a few years
           | 
           | This has been a lot of my career. All my long, successful
           | jobs have lasted around 2-3 years, and it's the time it takes
           | for the company to realize the initiative wasn't worth it. I
           | count four of these stints where I left, and the team was
           | essentially dissolved within a year. I'm not saying I was the
           | key person for the project; I just saw the writing on the
           | wall.
           | 
           | It's been career limiting not having a large-scope project on
           | a growing team, but I don't know if this is something about
           | me, something about the projects I'm a good fit for, or the
           | reality that a lot of projects and teams don't survive 5
           | years, and I've been exposed to some survivor bias of smart
           | people who have gotten lucky.
        
             | atrettel wrote:
             | That is a great example of what I was talking about.
             | 
             | Another example is the changing nature of the contracts
             | people are hired under. I'm a scientist, and a lot of
             | positions are inherently term-limited. You end up with a
             | lot of organizations with two different groups of
             | employees: employers who have worked there for decades, and
             | employers who are temporary and work there for a few years
             | hoping to be converted to permanent. Just like in the
             | situation you describe, if you end up on a project that
             | just isn't working out, that does not bode well for your
             | own prospects. That has nothing to do with your own
             | capabilities or how hard you worked on the project. And
             | just like you mention, a lot of the "permanent" people have
             | survivorship bias and do not really understand that they
             | ultimately got lucky and timed the market well.
             | 
             | (Or many of the permanent people were hired as permanent
             | staff originally and do not understand the conditions under
             | which new staff are hired.)
        
         | no_wizard wrote:
         | The tech industry also doesn't reward loyalty, even at big
         | tech.
         | 
         | There's a reason for the low tenure at most firms and it's
         | primarily due to the lack of rewarding experience and depth of
         | field knowledge at most companies. When you _have to_ get a new
         | job just to get a salary increase that keeps up with inflation
         | you are going to see a lot of job hopping when the skills of
         | the workforce are generally in demand.
         | 
         | How often is it that someone leaves because they can get paid
         | better elsewhere? Why do we think this wouldn't drive the
         | primary cause of people leaving companies?
         | 
         | Where the fuck is the company showing any loyalty to its
         | workforce?
        
           | generic92034 wrote:
           | > Where the fuck is the company showing any loyalty to its
           | workforce?
           | 
           | They have been and are out there. But all it takes is a
           | change on C level and cost cutting suddenly is everything,
           | loyalty a thing of the past. That is, you cannot count on
           | loyalty anymore, even if the company you are working for is
           | currently showing it (or seems to).
        
           | ltbarcly3 wrote:
           | Big tech employees have been abandoning companies the second
           | they can get higher TC for decades, and as soon as the
           | companies start firing a very small fraction (in a lot of
           | cases people who were coasting or incompetent) its a problem
           | of morality?
           | 
           | You can really see what people are made of when they face
           | adversity. Good luck.
        
             | no_wizard wrote:
             | Big tech employees are a fraction of all tech employers and
             | employees. There's problem so systematically pervasive that
             | you see this across the board. Companies do not value long
             | term retainment of employees up and down the size spectrum
             | and it's very clear in how they behave.
             | 
             | They don't award experience and depth of knowledge in any
             | way that is indicative of fostering retention
        
           | y-c-o-m-b wrote:
           | Yeah I don't see the big mystery here. People leave to keep
           | up with cost of living or get away from toxic elements in
           | their current workplace that are otherwise difficult - if not
           | impossible - to change by staying. It's not something we want
           | to do, it's something we have to do for one good reason or
           | another. If we had better rights and meaningful raises to
           | improve or even sustain our quality of life, the job hopping
           | would surely decrease. The layoffs and the reason for job
           | hopping are both attributed to actions on the employer's
           | side.
        
             | ryandrake wrote:
             | For _almost_ every job I 've had, I would have been more
             | than happy to stay there if it provided the career growth
             | that job hopping provides. Companies seem to deliberately
             | make internal promotion far more difficult than just job
             | hopping to L+1.
        
           | supriyo-biswas wrote:
           | > The tech industry also doesn't reward loyalty
           | 
           | Anecdotally, I've heard of many cases of "up or out" in
           | FAANGs, which in other terms is a negative preference for
           | loyalty.
           | 
           | (This, in fact, is one of the reasons people working in those
           | companies perpetually seem to be practicing interview
           | questions and Leetcode every day.)
        
         | jasonlotito wrote:
         | > when most people are in a chronic state of tech job hopping?
         | 
         | Citation needed. The vast majority of people in tech that I
         | know do NOT job hop. So please, I need a citation, not your
         | feelings.
        
         | huang_chung wrote:
         | Well, getting fucked out of your 401k money 6 months before it
         | vests stings some.
        
           | s1artibartfast wrote:
           | Is that an average time given a 12 month vesting schedule?
           | 
           | edit: Actually curious about the dead comment. What companies
           | have multi year _401(k)_ vesting?
           | 
           | Every company I have worked at or seen does a match on a 12
           | month schedule or less.
           | 
           | Are they thinking of stock options?
        
             | Barracoon wrote:
             | IIRC Amazon has a 2 years 401k match vesting period.
        
               | s1artibartfast wrote:
               | Interesting.
               | 
               | per this article, Amazon 401k has a cliff vesting on
               | matched funds at 3 years of employment. After reading
               | around, it seems like 3 years is the legal maximum for
               | 401k cliff vesting, with 6 years permitted for
               | incremental vesting.
               | 
               | https://www.consiliowealth.com/insights/breaking-down-
               | amazon...
        
             | huang_chung wrote:
             | Two years is more typical.
        
         | saghm wrote:
         | I think there are two reasons: choosing to change jobs on your
         | own gives you ability to pick a time when it's minimally
         | disruptive to yourself and your actual family, and then the
         | pretend "family" vibe you cite is pushed by the employer in the
         | first place. Companies insising on a game of make-believe where
         | the relationship between employer and employee isn't
         | transactional makes it hard not to be bothered by the
         | hypocrisy. I agree that on average, the tech industry isn't as
         | bad as other industries often are, but I don't see why that's a
         | compelling argument not to care about the fact that it still
         | could be better. There's nothing stopping me from wanting fewer
         | tech layoffs and better conditions for workers in other
         | industries as well (and in some circumstances even advocate for
         | that even knowing that it might require changes to my own
         | quality of life to achieve that; as a trivial example, I go out
         | of my way to tip much larger than 20% when I use Uber because
         | I'd rather risk getting ripped off than a driver not getting
         | paid a fair wage for the work they do for me, even if it's at
         | my own expense).
         | 
         | At the end of the day, everything is a balancing act, and the
         | amount of change most of us can make as individuals is a drop
         | in the bucket compared to the unfairness that people have to
         | deal with every day. We all have to make judgement calls on
         | where to take a stand and where to play it safe to avoid making
         | things harder for ourselves without actually making a
         | difference that ends up helping anyone, and if people are
         | acting in good faith when trying to make those choices, I don't
         | see any value in criticizing what they end up deciding. If
         | anything, most of us in tech are probably in far more of a
         | comfortable position to be able to speak out against employers
         | (either or own or those in industries where workers are treated
         | even worse), so I think there's a reasonable argument that it's
         | more important for us to because of that. It's not a zero-sum
         | game though; pointing out tech employer hypocrisy doesn't
         | inherently take anything away from pointing out even worse
         | things that other employers do.
        
           | carlob wrote:
           | > I go out of my way to tip much larger than 20% when I use
           | Uber because I'd rather risk getting ripped off than a driver
           | not getting paid a fair wage for the work they do for me,
           | even if it's at my own expense
           | 
           | Honest question, as a European who doesn't fully understand
           | tipping culture: don't you think that this might be
           | perpetuating a culture of exploitation? Wouldn't you rather
           | spend your money on taxis that at least have some regulations
           | if you are afraid the drivers are getting the wrong end of
           | the deal?
        
         | giantg2 wrote:
         | I've worked over 12 years at the same company. Finding a new
         | job would be difficult as remote pays lower and isn't the best
         | fit for me, my area isn't known for tech job, my spouse doesn't
         | want to relocate, I work for one of the biggest employers in my
         | area (fewer choices outside the company), and we are seeing the
         | highest sector unemployment since the dot com bubble. Oh, and
         | my disability makes it all worse. My job has been an absolute
         | hell hole for the past 2 years, but internal and external job
         | opportunities have been extremely limited.
        
         | oytis wrote:
         | There is attrition and there are layoffs. With attrition
         | someone leaves every year or so, you part on good terms, and
         | the company hires a replacement on a similar level and
         | location.
         | 
         | Layoffs means reducing headcount, your team ends up weaker than
         | it was, and everyone is left wondering if they are next.
        
         | pjmlp wrote:
         | Depends on the country, in many European countries job hopping
         | is not well seen regardless of the industry.
        
         | lr4444lr wrote:
         | I think your idea is a good faith argument, but it's a fallacy:
         | high turnover on a job because of stiff competition for labor
         | is not a "tech culture" issue, and it's not at all the same
         | impact on a person as changing due to a layoff.
        
         | owl_vision wrote:
         | In tech, consultancy usually last between 3 months and 18
         | months, so one can have many consulting positions of under 2
         | years.
        
         | shortrounddev2 wrote:
         | I think many people at big tech companies like Facebook truly
         | drank the koolaid there, and when they got laid off it laid
         | bare that the companies they worked at were just companies.
         | Facebook, Google, Amazon, etc are no better than Microsoft,
         | IBM, Oracle, or whatever other 20th century company they had
         | come to represent the answer to. I think a LOT of people had
         | really tied their identities up in being a big tech employee
         | and when they got laid off it was like being cast out of
         | paradise
        
         | PhasmaFelis wrote:
         | > Why do tech workers get so wrapped around the axle of layoffs
         | when most people are in a chronic state of tech job hopping?
         | 
         | Most of us job-hop because we _have_ to, not because we _want_
         | to.
         | 
         | There's a class of people in the tech industry who like to
         | write blogs about how fun and fulfilling it is to constantly
         | change jobs and roles. Those people are highly visible but not
         | representative. Most humans find constant change and
         | uncertainty stressful, not exhilarating.
        
         | abeppu wrote:
         | I think the other side of it is:
         | 
         | - Detail-oriented nerds with a rich mental framework around
         | things like optimization, making decisions based on data,
         | perhaps statistical approaches to uncertainty get frustrated
         | when they see their organization making big, irreversible
         | choices without the benefit of all available information. From
         | the IC or line-manager level there may be a bunch of
         | information which you can tell was not taken into
         | consideration.
         | 
         | - Process-oriented people who have put a bunch of effort into
         | planning, goal-setting and measurement based on seemingly
         | reasonable assumptions like "this team that provides service X
         | will continue to exist for the duration of project Y which
         | depends on X" get frustrated when execs throw everything into
         | disarray ... and then 3 weeks later want to know why Y is off
         | track.
         | 
         | As the article describes, often lay-offs end up being bad for
         | the company, not just the employees who get terminated. Even if
         | you're not let go, or even if you just care about the value of
         | your vested equity, it can be quite frustrating to see this
         | happen. And often, because layoffs are generally planned in
         | secret, leadership explicitly precludes the possibility of
         | getting input from the experts in their organization.
         | 
         | While perhaps some layoffs ultimately turn out ok, I think
         | generally the people who go through them can tick off a list of
         | parts of it that were ill-considered and needlessly disruptive,
         | in part b/c of this lack of trust and communication.
        
         | slackernews9 wrote:
         | "Why do tech workers get so wrapped around the axel of
         | foreclosure when most people are in a chronic state of moving
         | house?"
        
         | dghlsakjg wrote:
         | Citing an airline for longevity is a bit disingenuous.
         | 
         | I'm not sure how it works with support staff, but aircraft crew
         | have contract structures that so heavily favor seniority that
         | most pilots and FAs will never leave a major willingly during
         | their career.
         | 
         | Your observation, to me, seems more like: tech companies reward
         | new employees over old, airlines do the extreme opposite.
        
         | biztos wrote:
         | I get the point, but I don't think that's universally true.
         | Especially in the less glamorous corners of the tech industry
         | -- yes, you have some younger people looking to bounce, but
         | most of the people who actually keep the lights on have full
         | lives outside of work and all things being equal, they'd rather
         | stick around than deal with the hassle of finding a new job.
         | They're only going to leave if you create a toxic work
         | environment or underpay them by double-digit percentages.
         | 
         | For those industries, I don't think they're getting much from
         | the layoffs besides the short-term "we did layoffs" C-suite
         | bonus. If you're in the Widgetmaker Control Systems industry,
         | why do you want to _make_ your workforce think they have to
         | leave in 3-4 years?
        
         | dan-robertson wrote:
         | I guess there are a broad range of perspectives and how loud
         | people are is going to depend on their perspectives. Some
         | reasons to dislike layoffs:
         | 
         | - visas may be dependent on employment, and can make changing
         | jobs harder. In the United States, lots of visa rules are at
         | the discretion of the government (eg how long one may live in
         | the United States on an employer-sponsored visa while
         | unemployed)
         | 
         | - the recent (and dot-com era) tech layoffs have been cyclical:
         | many companies are in layoff-mode or hiring-spree mode at the
         | same time. The time when many companies are not hiring is the
         | worst time to be thrust into the job market
         | 
         | - people may have other job security worries - big tech
         | companies tend to always be growing so it is worrying if they
         | are laying people off instead of moving them from a failing
         | business line to a new one
         | 
         | - in general some people may have a lot of anxiety about
         | changes to income. If you are applying for new jobs while
         | currently holding another, there is much less pressure than if
         | you're unemployed and need to find a new job (and possibly at a
         | pay cut requiring outgoings to be reduced) before you run out
         | of savings, especially if you don't have much in savings
         | compared to outgoings, which may be the case for some tech
         | workers (some people spend a lot, or have much of their wealth
         | tied up in property or have a family which requires spending
         | more on eg housing or school fees). The much-worse consequences
         | of failing to get a new job may increase the
         | pressure/stress/discomfort
         | 
         | - this reveals an obvious truth about where the power lies in
         | 'engineering-focused' companies and people don't like it
         | 
         | - people can see a layoff as being like a firing and therefore
         | be unhappy due to hurt pride (or worries about being less
         | desirable in the job market)
         | 
         | - the lack of agency in a layoff is unpleasant. It is quite
         | different from choosing to apply to other jobs.
        
         | mock-possum wrote:
         | I mean in all fairness, I move around because I'm looking for a
         | place to stay - if I'm not enjoying myself at my job, why would
         | I stick around? And conversely, when I find a spot I like, why
         | job hop?
         | 
         | And besides, the last time I was laid off, it was from a place
         | I'd been at nearly 5 years, a place that did feel almost like
         | family - that's why I stayed as long as I did.
        
         | m104 wrote:
         | Because a lot of tech workers today aren't actually job hopping
         | and instead get very cozy in a job and a team and a career
         | trajectory, which feels unfairly ripped away during layoffs for
         | reasons that don't feel connected to their personal
         | performance.
        
         | bongodongobob wrote:
         | Because it's usually only true in your early 20s. Then you find
         | a place and stay. These people bragging about company hopping
         | every 3 or 4 years don't do that for 20 years.
        
         | TrackerFF wrote:
         | Job hopping is done to maximize your salary in the least amount
         | of time - but everyone knows that there's a ceiling. You can't
         | just keep job hopping for the rest of your career, and
         | magically end up making 25% more every time you hop to the next
         | gig.
         | 
         | Sooner or later you'll start to reach a ceiling, and have to
         | defend your salary more. The idea is that if you can end up
         | hitting that ceiling in 10 years by job hopping, that's better
         | than spending 25 years at one place to hit the same figure. The
         | earlier you have maximized your salary, the more you can invest
         | and hopefully retire earlier.
         | 
         | Now, once you hit that ceiling - it kind of sucks to be in a
         | constant state of job hopping. You actually don't get rewarded,
         | and it is more stress than anything. And the older you get, the
         | more stability you'll value - after all, you probably have a
         | mortgage, kids, and all that to account for.
        
         | yodsanklai wrote:
         | It's a chicken and egg problem. If people feel they could have
         | a meaningful career in a given place, they would stay longer.
         | When you see your teammates getting laid off one after the
         | other - including people with 5-10 years of seniority and
         | history of good performance, you start to wonder whether you
         | should have any sense of loyalty to the company.
         | 
         | I joined my company with the naive hope there would be some
         | sentiment of family/community and that I'd do a big chunk of my
         | career there. But after seeing how they treat employees, I'm
         | looking for the way out.
        
         | hankchinaski wrote:
         | I agree with parts of what you say. I'm a career contractor or
         | job hopper. I like it this way. I also am aware of the
         | volatility of the industry. I prefer hopping and getting 20%
         | pay bump each year. This more than offsets the risk of being
         | laid off and staying a few months without income.
        
         | iancmceachern wrote:
         | Many of the stereotypes you mention are for startup founder /
         | early employee types.
         | 
         | That's not everyone, it's just who's on HN.
         | 
         | Most employees of these companies are just regular people
         | wanting regular jobs.
        
           | paulddraper wrote:
           | What % of the your coworkers have been there 5+ years?
        
             | lazyasciiart wrote:
             | I work at salesforce. 100% of my immediate team and gotta
             | be over 50% of my broader team. We've barely hired since
             | 2020.
        
             | iancmceachern wrote:
             | 100% (I have owned and worked at my own company for 10
             | years)
             | 
             | Anecdotally, I've also worked at many startups that became
             | big companies through acquisition and Let me tell you - J&J
             | has a lot of employees who have been there more than 5
             | years, thousands. They also had several big layoffs of such
             | people during the process.
        
         | grandempire wrote:
         | Different groups of people. Some confidently job hop, others
         | live in fear of losing a comfortable job.
         | 
         | There are deep differences in expectations and attitudes in
         | these areas, driven by family, culture, and upbringing.
        
         | al_borland wrote:
         | I've been at my company working in tech for 19 years and I hate
         | the pushing of job hopping as a norm. Job hoppers have no skin
         | in the game. They don't need support what they build, they
         | don't get to see where it fell short... they really can't learn
         | from their experiences and mistakes. What they do isn't in the
         | best interest of the company, it's just enough (an MVP if you
         | will) to add to the resume so they can leverage it for a bump
         | in pay on their next job.
         | 
         | I see wave after wave of job hoppers hired to "transform" the
         | organization and all they ever do is repeat the same old
         | mistakes, which we could tell them if they weren't too arrogant
         | to listen.
         | 
         | Every job hopper I've worked with has simply been a distraction
         | to the greater goals of the organization to serve the customer.
         | I've lost all patience and respect for the people who practice
         | it, and the companies that set themselves up in a way which
         | encourages it.
         | 
         | I don't know how we find our way back, but I think companies
         | and employees would all be better off with some stability and
         | more long term thinking.
        
           | jagraff wrote:
           | I think the solution for this would be for companies to
           | proactively raise wages in order to keep up with the market.
        
             | al_borland wrote:
             | Yes, but it also takes some level of patience on the part
             | of the employee.
             | 
             | Corporate bureaucracies often move slow, and they also want
             | to see you can do the job first. I'm seeing most younger
             | people don't seem to have patience for this.
             | 
             | They also grossly overestimate their knowledge and ability.
             | I've seen a significant number of people talk like they
             | mastered a job after 1 year, then they stared asking me how
             | they could get on my team doing what I do. I did the job
             | they were doing for 10+ years. The reason they think it's
             | easy is because I defined the processes of how to do it
             | all, wrote all the documents on how to do it, made a
             | training program they went through, and worked with other
             | teams to remove a lot of the toil. I then started building
             | tools to make it easier for anyone off the street to do a
             | lot of the work, and do it at scale. Thats why I have the
             | job I have; it wasn't given to me, I created it out of a
             | desire to make the team better after realizing we could
             | only go so far if I just worked faster. They didn't see any
             | of that.
             | 
             | For those that seemed interested, I'd give them the tools
             | they needed to help, to see if they were the type to do
             | this kind of stuff. I'd provide feedback, answer questions,
             | or do anything else I could to help them. Out of the dozen
             | or so who asked, only 1 person has done it to a limited
             | degree. Thats why companies don't just offer it up quickly
             | and easily. A lot of people talk, but not many back it up.
        
         | soerxpso wrote:
         | That's kind of a chicken and egg issue, isn't it? Why is it
         | that employees can get more money/promotions from a company
         | they have no relationship with, than from a company where
         | they've already been working for multiple years and have more
         | company-specific knowledge than their replacement will? Unlike
         | with government work, years at the company isn't really
         | considered when deciding who layoffs are going to hit. You're
         | proposing that tech workers should loyally stay at the same
         | company for 10 years, make less money, and then get laid off
         | just as easily anyway?
        
         | sgustard wrote:
         | The average tenure of an employee at HP is 6.6 years (source:
         | Google AI) to pick a company that may be outside your bubble.
         | And the lifelong career holding older employee at a legacy
         | enterprise tech company is the kind of worker who is most
         | adversely affected by an unexpected return to the job seeking
         | pool.
        
         | shepherdjerred wrote:
         | Tech is a huge field. If you work in big tech or well-known
         | companies, it is common to job-hop. If you're at something more
         | established, traditional, or mid-sized, you'll probably find
         | lifers.
         | 
         | Additionally, I think fewer people are job-hopping considering
         | the market is so competitive. I would expect new grads to start
         | staying at their first job for longer, too.
        
         | willsmith72 wrote:
         | 2 way street. you say "it's laying off a bunch of people who
         | were gonna dip in 6 months to a year anyway."
         | 
         | to the new grad, it's "wow half my team just got laid off when
         | the company seems to be doing fine, i guess i better not get
         | too comfortable here"
        
         | stego-tech wrote:
         | Because not every company gives severance during layoffs. As
         | someone who got RIFed ( _again_ - fourth time in my 15yr
         | career), this is the first time I 've had severance, and the
         | first time I had a notice period that wasn't just "till the end
         | of the month". As such, layoffs are _traumatic_ just on their
         | own.
         | 
         | Adding more rapid-fire context (for the sake of brevity):
         | 
         | * Parents changed jobs every few years growing up, which meant
         | a new city, new home, new schools, and a complete cycling of
         | relationships (forcibly out with the old, forcibly in with the
         | new)
         | 
         | * I watched layoffs in non-tech sectors gradually go from tech-
         | style severance packages, to no packages beyond the required
         | WARN notice period payouts, to filing the notices and hoping
         | nobody asks, to now just paying out any damages after-the-fact
         | in lawsuits
         | 
         | * I spent ~15mo unemployed during the "Great Recession" of '08,
         | ending up having to move to another region of the country for
         | work and spending a night homeless, followed by six-months
         | couch surfing, then another month in a hotel before finally
         | having an apartment again
         | 
         | So all that put together, layoffs and job changes are
         | _incredibly traumatic experiences_ I do my best to avoid at all
         | costs. I am one of those  "lifers" who would much rather hunker
         | down for a good wage today, buy a home, sock away savings, and
         | work my way up an internal career ladder than throw myself into
         | an entirely new workplace, colleagues, culture, and standards
         | every year or two. I claw for multiple roles in an org (at the
         | most recent one, I was juggling roles on Private Cloud & Public
         | Cloud, Governance Councils, leading a CaaS ops overhaul, _plus_
         | other PoCs) specifically to make myself as indispensable as
         | possible and position myself on the internal promotional
         | ladder, because I 'd rather stay with one org provided I can
         | eke out a modest living and take care of those I care about
         | (myself included).
         | 
         | Now _all that aside_ , there's also the reality that wage
         | growth from job hopping hasn't turned out to be as big as folks
         | thought. The real growth comes from career promotions, which
         | companies hate doling out internally for profoundly stupid and
         | arbitrary reasons (hence job hopping). I get the impression
         | most folks would stay put if they could get the growth in their
         | career they wanted, but companies would rather hire someone
         | externally to fill a spot than promote someone internally
         | operating at that level; I am very much in that group myself.
         | Heck, we're seeing that now with folks not leaving jobs because
         | they're having difficulty finding that growth (in comp and
         | title) elsewhere, as everyone kind of knuckles down for tough
         | times ahead. That taste of stability will create more "lifers"
         | as you put it, _especially_ when the world outside is
         | increasingly unstable; it 's natural that humans (and most
         | animals) will seek stability in times of crisis, taking only as
         | much risk as necessary to preserve their survival.
         | 
         | Something the article doesn't get into is the knock-on effect
         | of layoffs in future business: if workers are let go for what
         | they perceive to be arbitrary or irrational reasons, they're
         | less likely to want to do business with that company again in
         | the future. This is particularly why tech companies offer such
         | good severance packages, as it's their mea culpa of sorts by
         | trying to buy themselves a good reputation on the way out the
         | door. When _everyone is doing it_ though (like the current
         | layoff cycles), it becomes a broader disgust or distaste for
         | established vendors in general, and those workers - _when_ they
         | land a new role - are likely to want to migrate off their
         | employer 's products unless their career is tied to it somehow.
         | This can reduce business _after_ cuts had already been made,
         | potentially putting an organization into a cycle of self-harm
         | wherein more cuts are made in response to declining business,
         | which then causes more declines in business, which leads to
         | more cuts, etc. This in turn leaves a huge opening for new
         | startups to enter the hole left behind by established players,
         | undercutting them on pricing _and_ providing better service.
         | 
         | So taking all of that into context when reading the article
         | again, and it paints a pretty telling picture of widespread
         | mismanagement at companies doing unwarranted and highly
         | traumatic layoffs. If the only thing your leadership can do to
         | grow the business is to layoff staff, that's a pretty telling
         | sign that business ain't doing so great in general and leaders
         | are out of ideas to improve it.
        
         | kristianc wrote:
         | Kind of sucks when you have stock...
        
         | BugsJustFindMe wrote:
         | > _Why do tech workers get so wrapped around the axle of
         | layoffs when most people are in a chronic state of tech job
         | hopping?_
         | 
         | When I leave a job, I leave on good terms, they're always sad
         | to see me go but understanding, and I always give my employer 6
         | or more weeks notice with the additional offer that they can
         | still reach out to me for help if they need after that for as
         | long as my memory remains helpful. A couple even took me up on
         | my offer and asked to pay me for my time.
         | 
         | The time I got caught in a layoff I had the door slammed in my
         | face literally minutes later and barely two weeks severance
         | contingent on signing away rights. So, fuck me I guess.
         | 
         | Maybe the workers who complain understand that circumstances
         | are not always equal.
        
         | bodegajed wrote:
         | It's an outlier because unlike other service industries the
         | software has global presence. An app written by software
         | engineers laid-off 3 years ago will still run by itself with
         | exceptions like servers running out of disk space. Unlike other
         | services industry tech workers get laid off for:
         | 
         | 1. When the product has failed market-fit and company is not
         | raising anymore capital.
         | 
         | 2. When the backlog has been cleared.
         | 
         | Tech workers get more pay by job hopping.
        
       | CaffeineLD50 wrote:
       | "Companies who enact them as part of a broader change in
       | strategy, Cascio says, fare better than those who enact them
       | simply to cut costs."
       | 
       | Ah, the old strategic realignment PR BS. "Its not cost cutting
       | because our C levels are clowns and screwed up. Its a strategic
       | realignment for AI investment ". Lol. Didn't Salesfarce and
       | Fakebook both use that one?
       | 
       | When will AI replace upper management? It can't do any worse.
        
       | qwerty456127 wrote:
       | > Companies must invest to train current workers to pick up new
       | tasks -- and invest to recruit replacement employees after the
       | economy improves or the company's financial troubles clear up.
       | 
       | It always baffled me how could a businessman fail to understand
       | that loosing a reliably working employee (even of mediocre
       | productivity) is like shooting your own leg - resulting in having
       | to look for a replacement, train them and hope (certainty is
       | value worth money as well) they are going to be as good. To me it
       | seems it is always better to increase the wage to avoid losing
       | people already working for you so you save yourself from the
       | hassle.
        
       | scott_meyer wrote:
       | Layoffs are not about cost, they are about power. The economic
       | result is just confirmation.
       | 
       | A large company in actual financial distress will sell off a
       | division.
        
       | bawolff wrote:
       | Seems like a clear case of correlation != causation.
       | 
       | Of course layoffs are correlated with bad company performance. I
       | dont know if they help, but i would expect the pattern either
       | way.
        
       | giantg2 wrote:
       | "Kelleher wasn't around to see them. He died in 2019."
       | 
       | That's how it works. You have someone who is a great leader who
       | started a company and treated their employees well, then the
       | behemoth corporation waits for them to die to start gutting their
       | values. It happened at my company. It's basically just a lite
       | version of a private equity takeover.
        
       | ripped_britches wrote:
       | A large airline like southwest is one thing but I'm always so
       | surprised at how much over hiring we do in software companies.
       | 
       | Every problem/opportunity seems to just need a few more
       | headcount.
       | 
       | Lots of managers are actively trying to increase their headcount
       | for self promotional reasons.
       | 
       | The whole thing seems really counterproductive.
        
         | horns4lyfe wrote:
         | And right now companies are doing the same thing with overseas
         | hires, always assuming more is better
        
       | mistercheph wrote:
       | This whole article is selection bias:
       | 
       | > There are findings that suggest layoffs lead to both short-term
       | and long term issues, including: > - A 2x as likely chance of
       | bankruptcy compared to companies that haven't done layoffs.
       | 
       | Obviously! Because a huge number of the companies undergoing
       | layoffs are about to go under and are using layoffs as a last
       | ditch survival effort.
       | 
       | The author may be right, but every fact and figure presented in
       | this article fails to distinguish between healthy companies in
       | healthy industries using layoffs as a lever to increase stock
       | prices, and layoffs happening in industries/companies that are
       | collapsing.
        
       | nielsbot wrote:
       | Former Nintendo CEO Iwata said something similar:
       | 
       | "If we reduce the number of employees for better short-term
       | financial results, employee morale will decrease," he said. "I
       | sincerely doubt employees who fear that they may be laid off will
       | be able to develop software titles that could impress people
       | around the world."
        
       | nullorempty wrote:
       | what about layoffs that balance hiring elsewhere - laying off in
       | NA hiring in India.
        
       | kazinator wrote:
       | Nothing kills your culture like layoffs, but what if the culture
       | has been overtaken by a whole lot of getting nothing done while
       | collecting pay?
        
       | velcrovan wrote:
       | I can't believe no one here is talking about how horrible these
       | charts are.
        
       | ssssvd wrote:
       | Had been advocating slower hiring & targeted reductions in a mid-
       | sized tech firm for years after COVID, but it happened much
       | faster under a newly appointed CEO.
       | 
       | Under new leadership, we executed 1/3 layoffs framed as a
       | "culture refresh" and to briefly lift the stock. It wasn't about
       | survival, we had plenty of cash, okayish growth and fantastic ARR
       | - more about a new corp-backed CEO adopting a "do-it-like-Elon"
       | approach.
       | 
       | Being mostly Europe-based but US-led, it turned into a massive
       | and costly process (Americans don't exactly dig EU/UK workers
       | rights - Spain was the biggest shock), stalling most productive
       | activity for half a year. Internal trust and brand perception
       | tanked. Since it began with ousting old execs, it quickly
       | devolved into a blunt-force exercise with no internal knowledge,
       | led by scared managers with percentage targets - many good people
       | were cut. Managers hesitated to shield talent, given the "culture
       | reboot" framing. I ended up personally cutting entire offices.
       | 
       | When the CEO's broader strategy failed (for reasons beyond
       | layoffs), high performers started eyeing the exit. Ironically,
       | many first saw the layoffs positively - COVID overhires had left
       | uneven team dynamics, and some dead weight was on high salaries.
       | But when it became clear there was no coherent plan, people began
       | leaving.
       | 
       | That triggered a chain reaction. Senior hiring pipelines dried up
       | (reputation matters, esp. when your top-talent is on the way out
       | and is loud about it), and panic set in. Eventually, it turned
       | into survival mode. The CEO didn't last long after that.
        
         | mock-possum wrote:
         | > Americans don't exactly dig EU/UK workers, right?
         | 
         | I'm actually curious to hear your take on it - what's your
         | experience been?
        
           | ssssvd wrote:
           | UK was horrible. No real protection for workers - just layers
           | of mandatory legal mumbo-jumbo with zero actual chances for
           | people to keep their jobs. It was like ripping off the band-
           | aid 1mm at a time for four months.
           | 
           | Spain/France were an employer's nightmare. Anyone without
           | another job lined up secured a "special deal"--workers have
           | massive leverage, they know it, and they're actively
           | litigious. People on parental leave had close to a year of
           | guaranteed no-shows. The reaction was, of course, "never
           | again" rippling across American corporate circles.
           | 
           | The rest of Europe was okay-ish.
           | 
           | US was predictably the easiest. We were generous with
           | packages, but it's easy to see how the system can be used to
           | screw people over.
           | 
           | Middle East was the roughest. Visas in UAE/Qatar expire
           | instantly, and the local tech market is almost non-existent.
           | We extended until the end of the school year to help with
           | visa concerns, and some people managed to arrange golden
           | visas. But for many, it was a massive shock -- losing both
           | jobs and residency overnight.
        
         | callc wrote:
         | > But when it became clear there was no coherent plan, people
         | began leaving.
         | 
         | I see this more any more, to the point of wondering what % of
         | execs and decision makers are actually meaningfully good at the
         | job? When times are good, any exec action will turn out fine.
         | But when times are tough, who is worth their salt?
         | 
         | And if all these decision makers are bad at decision making,
         | what would a better organization look like?
        
           | ssssvd wrote:
           | There's definitely a "peacetime" / "wartime" divide. There's
           | also an overreliance on pedigree. But above all, it's the
           | pressure of being a public company (which often means losing
           | the founder).
           | 
           | As a new CEO, you have to impress the board and investors
           | without really knowing the company. You probably get two
           | earnings calls - six months at most - to prove yourself.
           | That's nothing, even for a senior dev, let alone an exec. And
           | if you're being brought in, it means the company isn't in
           | great shape - or is at least perceived that way.
           | 
           | You don't have time to really figure out how things work, and
           | even if you did, it's political suicide. The board didn't
           | hire a "looks fine to me" person. They hired a fixer. So, it
           | turns into narrative games and rapid actions with massive
           | tail risks.
           | 
           | I don't think it's a people problem. It's a system problem.
           | Leadership replanting is hard, but it's one of the very few
           | tools in the board's toolbox.
        
         | alabastervlog wrote:
         | There's _weirdly_ (to intuitive sense and business zeitgeist
         | since the 80s or so) mixed data on layoffs in general. There's
         | a decent chance they cause more mid-term harm than good, _most
         | of the time_.
         | 
         | They also didn't used to be a regular feature of business.
         | 
         | It's funny how such things become "ordinary" and "obviously
         | good things to do sometimes" that haven't always been the
         | former, and _may not really be the latter_ either.
         | 
         | Business management is vibes, trend-following, and fear of
         | straying from the pack. And the best of that is vibes! That's
         | how bad it is.
        
           | ssssvd wrote:
           | You nailed it. In our case, EBITDA margins were "pencil on a
           | napkin" at best -- only because the CFO is usually the sanest
           | person in the room. At the same time, Elon's moves and Meta's
           | "year of efficiency" were super influential.
           | 
           | A lot of what happens in the boardroom or C-suite is "stick
           | with the crowd" -- e.g. template-based "tech modernization."
           | (That's often a new CTO's hedge if the real problems are too
           | hard. Just "go Cloud" or "go AI" for five years -- four
           | vests, one to jump off.) You broadcast confidence, you own
           | the narrative. Which means never, ever saying "I don't know."
           | 
           | This is especially common in PE "turnarounds" or post-IPOs
           | after founder exits. And it's especially harmful there
           | because current staff is often seen as a liability, not an
           | asset.
           | 
           | I thought a lot about this after the layoffs, and I think it
           | boils down to how "professional C-levels" see execution as a
           | commodity. They tend to overemphasize leadership (sometimes
           | self-serving, but often genuine) and resource availability.
           | The focus is on "what?" and "how to pay for it?" -- with
           | "how?" left to be figured out on the go.
           | 
           | I don't think that's completely wrong. Sometimes execution is
           | a commodity. But not when you're short on time and planning
           | for a rapid sprint.
        
       | andrewlgood wrote:
       | Unfortunate click bait title for such an important topic. The
       | various metrics quoted of why companies without layoffs appear to
       | do better do not address the idea of underlying causes such as
       | companies doing better do need mass layoffs while companies not
       | doing as well likely to reduce expenses with actions to include
       | layoffs.
        
         | culi wrote:
         | The article compared companies within the same industries (e.g.
         | the airline industry) which faced the same problems
        
       | FooBarBizBazz wrote:
       | People are overthinking this.
       | 
       | It's about power, and inculcating fear.
       | 
       | The CEO who "cuts" people at a company is like the Aztec priest
       | who plunges the knife in atop the pyramid. The bloody spectacle
       | is the point. It's as much about everyone who's watching as it is
       | about the specific victim. It says, "I can do this to you. I can
       | inflict pain without reprisal. Behold my power."
       | 
       | That's the whole point. Who is afraid of whom?
       | 
       | These people have the money. We depend on that money in order to
       | live. They are reminding us of that fact. Now they demand
       | obedience and harder work. 40 hours? Not enough. Elon sleeps at
       | the office, why don't you? You have to be "super hardcore".
       | 
       | Partly, this is punishment for the challenge that was raised to
       | CEO power from around 2016 to 2022. CEOs have been furious that
       | they have felt fear of their workers. Now they want those workers
       | to feel fear. In interviews, Andreesen has said almost exactly
       | this, if not in quite so many words.
       | 
       | A similar theory is at the root of Fed policy, which hinges on
       | the idea of a "wage price spiral". In their view, inflation is
       | caused not by the accumulation of capital within a price-
       | insensitive upper quantile, or by the constriction of economic
       | chokepoints by consolidation, but by workers' ability to bargain
       | for higher wages. The solution to inflation, they essentially
       | come out and say, is to put workers in their place.
       | 
       | There is a united front here. It is about who fears whom, the
       | end. It is about your emotional state. In a literal sense, it is
       | terrorism.
       | 
       | So in that sense, yes, layoffs work. Are you financially
       | independent? No? Are you afraid? Yes? Then they're working.
        
       | jpgvm wrote:
       | I find layoffs very context sensitive.
       | 
       | Atleast 2 of the fast growing companies I have been a part of
       | have had serious layoffs that were very successful in cutting
       | dead weight that had accumulated because of fast and loose hiring
       | and poor middle management. So it can be done well.
       | 
       | By and large though they are a sign to jump from the soon to be
       | sinking ship... so it's very important to know what kind it is
       | and act accordingly.
        
       | deviantbit wrote:
       | This is a terrible opinion piece. Layoffs do work. Cutting hours
       | does not work. I am always amazed how few people understand how a
       | business operates. They think its a community organized event
       | where there is unlimited revenue.
       | 
       | There are a few basic accounting principles employees need to
       | understand. It all revolves around Assets = Liabilities + Owner's
       | Equity. If you think otherwise, take a "Cost Accounting" course.
       | This is a pure numbers game. Everyone wants to wrap a psycho
       | analysis into something that has ZERO relevancy.
       | 
       | If a company is bleeding revenue, it cannot sustain the overhead
       | of employees. They have to go. Cutting hours does nothing for
       | those on a salary, and those that are hourly, benefit costs are
       | far more expensive than their wage. If a company has stagnant
       | growth, that means leadership has made bad decisions, and things
       | have to change.
       | 
       | Employees feelings don't matter on a Balance Sheet, Income
       | Statement and Cash Flow Statement. There is not a "Employee's
       | Feelings" column on the ledger. Everyone can be replaced. No one
       | is special, unless you're a majority shareholder.
        
         | ryandrake wrote:
         | I mean, everything you said is true, but only because we have
         | deliberately set up the system as such. Shareholder Primacy is
         | a choice we have made as a society. It's not some natural law
         | or something carved by god into stone tablets. It's not hard to
         | imagine alternatives, but obviously the shareholding class is
         | going to work hard to ensure that only their preferred rules
         | have traction. Whether or not alternatives are workable given
         | human nature is another thread altogether.
        
           | astrange wrote:
           | Shareholders don't have "primacy", eg they're last in
           | bankruptcy. If you're asking for them to never get anything,
           | then they're not going to participate, and this is supposedly
           | a forum about startups.
           | 
           | In tech the employees also tend to be shareholders which I
           | think is healthier.
        
           | Out_of_Characte wrote:
           | >only because we have deliberately set up the system as such.
           | No one can sell at a loss all the time. That's just
           | stupidity. Either I get a return on money invested later or I
           | get a return on my balance sheet now in the form of profit.
           | Shareholders primacy is because they can only be cut trough a
           | buyout.
        
           | deviantbit wrote:
           | No, it's not a choice we made as a society. It was a choice
           | the shareholders made. You didn't make that choice, you were
           | not part of it.
        
             | ryandrake wrote:
             | That's a good point! I never got the chance to vote on
             | whether or not shareholders should get all the votes.
        
               | throwaway3572 wrote:
               | Why should you get a vote? You don't get a vote on what
               | groceries I buy. What entitles you to a vote on this
               | purchase decision? (In this case "all the votes" means
               | when making decisions on actions a particular corporation
               | is considering, not any vote on anything)
        
               | heeen2 wrote:
               | Lots of places take vote on what you can buy, eg weed,
               | alcohol, which additives are allowed and so on
        
               | throwaway3572 wrote:
               | The creation and transacting of corporate shares is also
               | highly regulated. But it doesn't address the question of
               | why a third party should get a vote that helps decide a
               | particular corporate action. Votes that limit the
               | possible actions of all corporations equally are a
               | different thing.
        
               | grandempire wrote:
               | Why do you feel entitled to something someone else built?
        
         | davidw wrote:
         | Math wise, yes, you're correct, but layoffs can also hurt
         | morale, especially if not done well. And in a competitive
         | environment, the _most_ talented people might be next to leave
         | after a layoff, as they see things aren 't going well and have
         | the easiest time finding alternatives. I've seen that happen
         | myself.
         | 
         | And some of those people you're laying off did revenue
         | generating activities, so, as above, yes, it may be necessary
         | to reduce costs, but it has to be done carefully.
        
         | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
         | At least for public companies, accounting is FAR from the end
         | all be all.
         | 
         | Most of the time, company valuations are completely divorced
         | from valuations. And much of what public companies do these
         | days is try to game their stock price.
         | 
         | Government employment is 95% the time completely divorced from
         | reality.
         | 
         | That being said, private companies employee a lot of people and
         | this is very relevant.
        
           | no_wizard wrote:
           | > Government employment is 95% the time completely divorced
           | from reality
           | 
           | This is a pretty big claim to make without any evidence to
           | support it.
           | 
           | The government, whether it be state, local, county federal
           | etc. does in have a different pace and certainly like with
           | any big organizations can have issues such as waste, but to
           | say it's _completely divorced from reality_ , especially in
           | context of somehow private (as in not government or NGO)
           | companies don't also act completely divorced from reality is
           | a really big claim
        
             | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
             | Private companies generally need to be efficient and make
             | money or go out of business.
             | 
             | VC funded startups are a VERY small percentage of jobs
             | compared to ALL private company employees. But, sure, there
             | is much shenanigans there.
             | 
             | Public companies can play tons of games as well - but the
             | vast majority of people employed at public companies are at
             | relatively efficient and profitable companies.
             | 
             | Government services are under no obligation to be
             | efficient.
             | 
             | Often people vote for them to be LESS efficient, hoping
             | that they'll get similar benefits from their private
             | employers.
             | 
             | Though, hope is a bad strategy, and it rarely works for
             | non-government employees.
             | 
             | But there's enough state employees that you don't have to
             | win over that many private employees to win votes for
             | things that make the services less efficient (like ever
             | juicier retirement benefits).
        
               | moregrist wrote:
               | > Private companies generally need to be efficient and
               | make money or go out of business.
               | 
               | Half of this statement is true. A private company
               | definitely can't run at a loss forever. Although in the
               | era of ZIRP a few definitely made a solid go of it.
               | 
               | However nothing requires an any company, and especially a
               | private one, to be efficient. If an otherwise profitable
               | and privately-held company wants to swell its middle
               | management ranks or spend lots of cash employing the
               | owners' dubiously capable relatives, there's nothing to
               | stop it.
               | 
               | Incidentally that's mostly true of public companies with
               | diverse shareholders, too.
               | 
               | The idea that private enterprise is always efficient is a
               | myth, as is evident to anyone who's worked for a large
               | enough corporation, or even a small one where management
               | weirdly shields some obviously incompetent people for
               | internal political reasons.
               | 
               | The only correcting factor is that companies can fail,
               | and smaller competitors can _sometimes_ find ways to
               | undercut large, inefficient firms. But often the small
               | company gets acquired or out-marketed. So there's nothing
               | inevitable about any of this.
        
         | yodsanklai wrote:
         | > If a company is bleeding revenue
         | 
         | Not what happened with some of the recent layoffs. Some big
         | tech companies generate huge revenues, laid off 5-10% of people
         | (sometimes with false pretext of performance), and do keep
         | hiring at the same time or soon after. This happens not to
         | reduce cost but to stress out remaining employees.
        
           | deviantbit wrote:
           | That is what happened in recent layoffs. You can look at the
           | company as a whole and say, well they were making money.
           | Specific divisions of the company were in the red. Many
           | companies rotate the bottom N percent to dump the bad
           | performers. If you're not doing your job to the best of your
           | ability, there is someone else out there that is willing to
           | do the job. You're not special.
        
             | KerrAvon wrote:
             | What's actually happened is that activist investors have
             | bought their way onto the boards of highly profitable
             | companies with insufficient poison pills and made them fire
             | some percentage of workers under the guise of making the
             | stock price go up.
             | 
             | Does worker happiness matter at all, or is it OK to have a
             | net miserable company where the bottom line is slightly
             | higher profit than it would otherwise have been if the
             | environment were a pleasant place to work? Because that's
             | the tradeoff here; rabid billionaire investors are unhappy
             | because numbers aren't as high as they could be.
        
               | deviantbit wrote:
               | Activist investors are a problem. Most recent activist
               | investors have been centered around climate and DEI.
               | Exxon had activist investors try to get on the board.
               | There was a lawsuit over it, I believe it was Arjuna
               | Capital.
               | 
               | Whoever is funding these activist investors, probably a
               | nation/state, is doing it on purpose. Natasha Lamb has to
               | be the dumbest investors to ever live, next to Cathie
               | Wood, IMO. You could invest in an S&P index fund and
               | perform better at 264% for the past 11 years, compared to
               | her 132% realized, and taking far less risk.
               | 
               | I get everyone has their idealistic views of how the
               | world should work, but capitalism dominates every other
               | society, providing better living standards, and security.
               | It is unfortunate we have had leftists in the Democratic
               | party take control of it, and pushing some very strange
               | agendas, that doesn't reflect reality. These strange
               | agendas have been exploited by other nations, like China.
               | 
               | Some activist investors have brought better function
               | management and boards. Carl Icahn is a great example. But
               | he has also brought his fair share of problems.
        
             | lazyasciiart wrote:
             | This is not what happened in recent layoffs where I am
             | familiar with the company. Perhaps you would like to make
             | the argument that in theory, lay-offs can be done that way.
        
             | whstl wrote:
             | _> Many companies rotate the bottom N percent to dump the
             | bad performers_
             | 
             | I have never seen this actually happen in practice.
             | 
             | It's always specific teams and projects that get fired
             | because some C-Level fucked up and pushed for some ego
             | project, or over-hired and placed those poor souls in
             | useless projects.
        
               | deviantbit wrote:
               | Yes, because you've never seen it means it doesn't
               | happen. I appreciate your appeal to ignorance, but it
               | happens in most large companies, and this should continue
               | in most companies.
        
           | YZF wrote:
           | It is still to reduce cost. Hiring would often be in cheaper
           | geographies. The reason to reduce cost is not to e.g. save a
           | business from collapsing but it is to improve the financial
           | results with the hope of making the stock price go up.
        
           | notadoomer236 wrote:
           | They have way, way more employees than they need.
        
           | TZubiri wrote:
           | >This happens not to reduce cost but to stress out remaining
           | employees.
           | 
           | Or to cull the low performers.
           | 
           | I personally am less stressed when the competition I
           | outperform gets fired.
        
         | BobbyTables2 wrote:
         | Many larger do companies behave as if revenue is unlimited.
         | 
         | Too many times, I've seen layoffs followed by acquisitions of
         | 10x the cost reduction from the layoffs -- often even in the
         | same quarter. And when parent company has a track record of
         | driving acquisitions into the ground from mismanagement, where
         | is the profit?
        
         | callc wrote:
         | > Employees feelings don't matter on a Balance Sheet, Income
         | Statement and Cash Flow Statement. There is not a "Employee's
         | Feelings" column on the ledger.
         | 
         | Sure they do. Just in the sense that employees feelings need to
         | be controlled and made to fear any collective action or sense
         | of agency.
        
         | voxl wrote:
         | Your horribly simplistic take has already received a lot of
         | backlash, but whatever I'm angry enough to add onto the pile:
         | 
         | 1. Big tech companies doing layoffs are not hurting on revenue,
         | so your basic assumption is wrong. 2. "Cutting hours" needs to
         | be steelmaned if you're not going to anything but a charlatan.
         | That means you have to interpret it as taking a paycut, as in a
         | salary cut. This has actually been done before in worker-
         | focused companies to survive covid, and in one instance I'm
         | aware of the company gave workers back pay after surviving
         | covid.
         | 
         | You also ignore all the intangibles that are no easy to
         | measure, because of course the business acumen of "make number
         | go up this quarter" is too short sighted to care about
         | institutional knowledge or long term strategy.
        
         | danans wrote:
         | > If a company has stagnant growth, that means leadership has
         | made bad decisions, and things have to change.
         | 
         | There is a bigger picture.
         | 
         | Developed economies across the globe are experiencing stagnant
         | growth, and the trickle down economics they have engaged in has
         | failed to fix that.
         | 
         | Knowing this, the wealthiest, through their proxies in
         | corporate leadership and government, are cutting back their
         | biggest cost - employees - to maximize their near term returns,
         | which will then be put into relatively fixed-supply assets,
         | rather than risking capital on new ventures, and the employees
         | that traditionally requires.
         | 
         | Corporations are betting that "growth" going forward is going
         | to come from AI-enabled efficiency and productivity gains, not
         | more employees making more product or innovating on
         | product/service development and delivery. While it's too early
         | to say whether they are right, many signs point in that
         | direction.
        
         | tdb7893 wrote:
         | A good friend of mine has a PhD in labor economics and is now a
         | senior management consultant for a big firm and I've been told
         | that in general just cutting people is bad for businesses and
         | most businesses will be worse off by just cutting people,
         | especially without changing any of the underlying systems that
         | got the company to the position it's in. Next time I'll have to
         | ask him about the studies on it but there definitely isn't a
         | consensus that general layoffs help businesses in the
         | medium/long term. He was saying the times they seem to work
         | best is in the context of a broader restructuring, (which in my
         | experience is not common for companies).
        
         | eikenberry wrote:
         | > If a company is bleeding revenue, it cannot sustain the
         | overhead of employees. They have to go.
         | 
         | No, they don't. During the dotcom bubble my company gave us 2
         | choices, layoffs or 20% pay cut. We took the latter. Everyone
         | stayed and we had our pay back to previous levels in a couple
         | years and the company remained profitable.
         | 
         | You can, in fact, treat people as people and still run a
         | company.
         | 
         | > Employees feelings don't matter on a Balance Sheet, Income
         | Statement and Cash Flow Statement.
         | 
         | This is only true of companies of a certain (large) size, when
         | all semblance of employees being people have been abstracted
         | away. In companies of more reasonable sizes you must take
         | employee moral into account or you will lose critical employees
         | which could kill the company.
        
           | deviantbit wrote:
           | Which dot com was that?
        
         | stalfosknight wrote:
         | Why can't the outrageously overpaid leadership who made the
         | mistakes be the ones who are punished instead of the individual
         | contributors who are just trying to survive?
        
         | theptip wrote:
         | Unsurprisingly, both the OP and this are oversimplified
         | statements.
         | 
         | The more nuanced point is to note that simply reducing the
         | world to accounting equations omits all of the human detail.
         | Morale is a meaningful thing, or if you prefer, knowledge,
         | expertise, Metis; these are damaged in layoffs, especially
         | repeated rounds. And furthermore, the recent tech layoffs were
         | not generally about fixing unsustainable businesses, they were
         | about juicing profit margins for already profitable ones.
         | 
         | On the other hand, of course the OP title is wrong and layoffs
         | can work. There are many examples even within tech where
         | cutting deep is the only way of surviving.
         | 
         | Complex systems are complex.
        
         | culi wrote:
         | The article cited actual statistics and data comparing
         | companies that enacted layoffs vs those that didn't. It showed
         | very clear evidence, even within the same industry, that those
         | that enacted layoffs fared MUCH worse
         | 
         | Also many of these layoffs are NOT coming when companies are
         | "bleeding revenue". E.g. Meta and Twitter enacted massive
         | layoffs after posting their most profitable quarters yet
        
           | conductr wrote:
           | That's what should be expected. A company in a stronger
           | position can more confidently avoid laying off people and
           | "ride out" the painful market conditions. Not every company's
           | revenue is composed of similar risk items even within similar
           | industries. Some companies are already knee deep in some new
           | strategy and need everyone on board to roll it out. The other
           | company is just a bunch of variable labor that can be culled
           | when volume shrinks. It also means they're not investing in
           | the future and going to get beat by a more strategic
           | competitor. So many other riffs to take on this, but short
           | term minded financials are absolutely improved by layoffs and
           | that's usually all the action is trying to effect.
        
         | sgustard wrote:
         | Layoffs are like closing factories that don't produce, cutting
         | products that don't sell, closing deserted retail locations,
         | and so on. Likely bad business decisions got you there in the
         | first place. Maybe market conditions changed. Maybe your whole
         | company is going to fail no matter what you do. But blanket
         | statements about what does or doesn't "work" are not very
         | instructive.
        
         | TZubiri wrote:
         | Also cutting hours sounds terribly out of touch with the gig
         | economy dilemma, I'd rather be let go than put on half my
         | salary?
        
         | kypro wrote:
         | Also I'd argue that a lack of layoffs at a company probably
         | causes stagnation and inefficiency. I don't thin the only good
         | argument for layoffs is that a company has no choice because of
         | cash flows.
         | 
         | I see this in the public sector where you often find people who
         | have been working at the same dept for a decade or more. These
         | people feel very safe and know they don't really need to try
         | that hard. They also know nothing about how things function
         | elsewhere so they'll put up with using spreadsheets and fax
         | machines because that's just how they've always done things.
         | 
         | It seems rather obvious to me that a good economy is one where
         | employers feel some nervousness about losing good employees, so
         | offer pay rises and perks; And where employees feel some
         | nervousness about layoffs so work hard and try to be as
         | productive as they reasonably can be.
         | 
         | If a company is not cutting a few percentage of their least
         | productive workers each year they're probably doing something
         | wrong imo. I think it's far to argue big tech companies built
         | up a lot of these under productive workers over the years.
        
       | jmyeet wrote:
       | Don't work to do what? If you think layoffs are about efficiency
       | or saving the company, at least in tech you couldn't be more
       | wrong. Companies like Meta and Google have done multiple rounds
       | of layoffs despite being insanely profitable and never taking a
       | loss.
       | 
       | The real purpose of layoffs is to get people to do more work for
       | the same or less money (by firing people and distributing their
       | responsibilities to those who remain) and to suppress wages
       | because nobody is asking for raises when they fear for their
       | jobs.
       | 
       | Big Tech is really out of ways to grow their business. The only
       | way they can keep growing profits is by cutting costs and the
       | biggest cost is labor. It's really that simple.
        
       | ChiMan wrote:
       | The more fundamental question is: If mass layoffs are so
       | necessary, then who's responsible for the unnecessary mass
       | hiring? In any mass layoff, fire that person first. Get to the
       | root of the problem.
        
       | hankchinaski wrote:
       | The tech layoffs are the results of couple of years of exuberance
       | that happened right after 2020. Companies are laying off and we
       | are getting back to trendline. Nothing to see here.
        
       | asveikau wrote:
       | I feel that companies just repeat discredited strategies because
       | they are conventional wisdom, and no amount of explaining why
       | layoffs don't make sense will stop them from laying off.
       | 
       | It's mostly about conformity. They heard that all the serious
       | companies are laying off. So they've got to lay off too. Can't be
       | seen breaking convention.
       | 
       | With big tech, a few years back when over-hiring was the
       | conventional wisdom they were for that too.
        
       | russellbeattie wrote:
       | A couple weeks ago Google announced more layoffs in their HR and
       | cloud divisions. They have $100 billion cash on hand, literally
       | more than any other tech company, and much more in longer term
       | investments.
       | 
       | In round numbers, that's enough money to cover roughly 10,000
       | employees for 25 to 50 years (depending on how much you think the
       | salary averages out to).
       | 
       | Regardless, the CFO said one of her priorities this year was more
       | cost cutting.
        
         | doktorhladnjak wrote:
         | It's a business, not a jobs program
        
       | fossuser wrote:
       | This blog post is wrong, it also just doesn't matter in practice.
       | Nobody who is making this sort of decision is going to give this
       | kind of obviously false argument a second thought. When you're
       | the one that actually has to make decisions that matter you're
       | going to be better at ignoring bullshit. The audience for this is
       | just people wanting something to upvote that sounds good to them
       | - driven by motivated reasoning.
       | 
       | > "You could blame the workforce," he says, "or the managers and
       | leaders who are leading that workforce."
       | 
       | They often do fire large swaths of middle managers - when Musk
       | bought Twitter cutting out the middle of the hierarchy and the
       | orgs that didn't need to exist was a big part of it. It's the
       | same with DOGE. After the twitter layoffs they've shipped more
       | features, faster, with better margins (and he fired the CEO).
       | Meta and Coinbase over hired during the covid 'zero interest rate
       | phenomena' and had to fix it. Reducing hours instead is a joke -
       | I find it hard to believe anyone being honest takes that
       | seriously.
        
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