[HN Gopher] U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine
        
       Author : ZeroCool2u
       Score  : 414 points
       Date   : 2025-03-04 01:04 UTC (21 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.wsj.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.wsj.com)
        
       | bigyabai wrote:
       | https://archive.ph/o2BXL
        
       | Trasmatta wrote:
       | This was clearly the plan all along. The farce at the White House
       | was just the pretense.
        
         | jordanb wrote:
         | Yeah I think the whole thing was planned in Riyadh between
         | Trump, Putin and MBS.
         | 
         | Which makes one wonder what MBS's role is. My theory is that he
         | will organize OPEC production cuts, designed to boost Russia's
         | economy and crush Europe's.
        
           | 4ndrewl wrote:
           | Putin's stated aims are the expansion of Russia to 100 year
           | old borders and the destruction of the EU. So that figures,
           | yes.
        
           | throwaway48476 wrote:
           | OPEC just announced an increase. MBS wants to hurt US shale
           | so when trump drills more they push the price down.
        
           | seanmcdirmid wrote:
           | Wouldn't that just accelerate Europe's transition to EVs?
           | They could even import Chinese EVs to make oil mostly
           | irrelevant in a year or so.
        
             | arbitrary_name wrote:
             | Europe is far more dependent on oil for industry and
             | manufacturing than for simply transport. The high energy
             | prices are killing the German manufacturing sector, while
             | cheap Chinese imports will crush the domestic auto
             | industry.
             | 
             | Terrible double blow that is enabling far right politics
             | and populism.
        
         | toomuchtodo wrote:
         | https://bsky.app/profile/ronfilipkowski.bsky.social/post/3lj...
        
       | nuccy wrote:
       | Thus two messages for every other country:
       | 
       | 1. Make nukes, never give up on those regardless of what
       | assurances of safety you get
       | 
       | 2. If you are bigger and stronger - you are right, do whatever
       | you want, international laws and rules do not matter any more
       | 
       | Lets see where all this will bring the world to in the next 10
       | years or a generation.
        
         | UncleOxidant wrote:
         | > Lets see where all this will bring the world to in the next
         | 10 years or a generation.
         | 
         | We've seen this movie before. It doesn't go well.
        
         | EGreg wrote:
         | Well, in the 90s Clinton negotiated the Agreed framework with
         | North Korea not to get nukes in exchange for lowering
         | sanctions. Then Bush admin called it "appeasement" and let it
         | die. Then NK got nukes.
         | 
         | Obama's admin negotiated the JCPOA deal with Iran, same thing.
         | They put the most inspectors ever in any country to make sure
         | Iran doesn't get nukes. Trump's admin then unilaterally ended
         | it.
         | 
         | Tom Cotton and Republicans openly warned Iran during Obama's
         | admin that the US is fickle and will change its policy as soon
         | as administrations change. This has been going on ever since
         | treaties with the Native Americans ("white man speaks with
         | forked tongue") but the Cotton letter was refreshingly honest:
         | 
         | https://www.cotton.senate.gov/news/press-releases/cotton-and...
         | 
         | The messages for every country to get nukes have been loud and
         | clear, but no country has done it in the southern hemisphere,
         | for instance. Even though USA had been involved in regime
         | change or invasions of almost all of them in the last 80 years:
         | https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2022/09/13/us-251-military-i...
        
           | cratermoon wrote:
           | > no country has done it in the southern hemisphere, for
           | instance
           | 
           | South Africa
        
         | mewpmewp2 wrote:
         | Also Europe will have to increase its nuclear arsenal since it
         | is clear that Europe can't no longer rely on US. Europe was too
         | trusting for too long.
        
           | seanmcdirmid wrote:
           | They could ally with China. The Chinese are only frenemies
           | with Russia anyways, and they make way much more money
           | trading with the rest of Europe.
        
             | rsynnott wrote:
             | Perhaps surprisingly, Europe has more nuclear weapons than
             | China (France: 290 warheads, UK: 225 warheads, China: 500
             | warheads). China never really bought into the mutually
             | assured destruction doctrine in the same way that the US
             | and Soviet Union did.
        
               | gruez wrote:
               | Their stockpile is estimated to grow to 1500 by 2035.
               | 
               | https://www.economist.com/cdn-
               | cgi/image/width=1424,quality=8...
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | I don't think the Chinese have been sitting still for the
               | last 10 years, and I doubt they will sit still for the
               | next 10 years.
        
               | rsynnott wrote:
               | I mean, see Doctor Strangelove. If you have a doomsday
               | weapon, that's only helpful if you _tell_ people about
               | it! If China had built loads of warheads, they'd hardly
               | keep that secret, as most of these point of having loads
               | of warheads is for everyone else to know you had them.
               | 
               | Realistically, by the time China and France got on the
               | nuclear scene, doctrine had shifted from "nuclear
               | torpedos, nuclear guns, nuclear landmines, nuclear
               | everything" to "you have some submarines with missiles;
               | you can have other stuff if you want, but no-one cares
               | about it". There's little point in having thousands of
               | warheads, these days.
               | 
               | (The UK did briefly go down the 'nuclear everything'
               | road, but pulled back for cost/sanity reasons)
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | I meant that your data is out of date, and China has
               | moved quickly in the last ten years. They went in the
               | last ten years from being able to just hit the west coast
               | to hitting all the way up to the Midwest, do you think
               | they won't have some amount of increased coverage in the
               | next, especially with their space program accelerating
               | their ICBM program?
               | 
               | The truth is that China hit MAD awhile ago and doesn't
               | really need to play up or even build much more on its
               | nuclear arsenal. They are better off investing in
               | conventional warfare for the near term, and especially in
               | new arms like drones that give them an actual advantage
               | in future conflicts.
        
         | bobongo wrote:
         | There will be a world war within the next 3 years, not 10.
        
           | moi2388 wrote:
           | There already is. It's just done through non-conventional
           | means, hybrid warfare and proxies, since all superpowers have
           | nukes now.
        
             | DanielVZ wrote:
             | Also the cyberspace, where Trump just recently surrendered
             | to Moscow as well.
        
         | Terr_ wrote:
         | With respect to how Ukraine yielded up nukes while Russia gave
         | "assurances" that they would respect Ukrainian borders [0],
         | Putin has claimed it doesn't count now because it's a different
         | Ukraine.
         | 
         | If that's really how he feels, then it's time to expel the
         | imposter "Russia" that's been falsely posing as a member of the
         | United Nations Security Council, because it's not _reeealy_ the
         | USSR...
         | 
         | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum
        
         | TheSunSet wrote:
         | This has been true since 1945
        
         | jesterson wrote:
         | > If you are bigger and stronger - you are right, do whatever
         | you want, international laws and rules do not matter any more
         | 
         | Rules never mattered in history. it's always up to strongest to
         | impose their version of "fairness".
        
           | notarobot123 wrote:
           | It's not always the biggest and strongest. Sometimes it's the
           | many.
           | 
           | Rules matter as long as they are enforced. It's only when
           | enforcement is asymmetrical that problems begin.
        
             | jesterson wrote:
             | As a matter of fact, strongest has the capacity to enforce
             | rules. My statement still stands
        
           | aprilthird2021 wrote:
           | And the strongest used to have a better version of fairness
           | for so long countries got complacent and didn't realize how
           | quickly it could flip on them
        
         | jyscao wrote:
         | > If you are bigger and stronger - you are right, do whatever
         | you want, international laws and rules do not matter any more
         | 
         | In reality, that was always the case.
        
           | codedokode wrote:
           | "International laws" are also a weird thing. There is no
           | international parliament, international police and
           | international court. I think the only viable agreements are
           | of a kind "if you don't do A then we don't do B".
        
           | Nathanba wrote:
           | >In reality, that was always the case.
           | 
           | *while everybody made sure that they would band together to
           | punish such behavior as the even bigger and stronger combined
           | force
        
         | boruto wrote:
         | Did the rules matter when hundreds of thousands of iraqi s were
         | killed on lies?
        
         | JeremyNT wrote:
         | Yes. If Ukraine kept the soviet nukes, they wouldn't be in this
         | position.
         | 
         | Non-proliferation - and relying on the benevolence of a few
         | mercurial and spiteful superpowers - is, in hindsight, a
         | horrible miscalculation.
        
       | arunabha wrote:
       | It would be one thing if there was a clear policy and adherence
       | to it. In that case, you could discuss and reason in good faith.
       | However there is no such indication that this decision is based
       | on a considered policy.
       | 
       | Trump's supporters would say that this is a result of not wanting
       | the US being involved in foreign conflicts. That is a laudable
       | goal, however that is not what is happening here. From the
       | article
       | 
       | > On Friday, the administration said it was sending Israel nearly
       | $3 billion in new weapons, including more than 35,000 new 2,000
       | pound bombs, invoking an emergency rule under U.S. arms control
       | laws.
       | 
       | This just makes it look like a petty tantrum at best and a wilful
       | desire to cleave our relationship with Europe at worst.
       | 
       | Yes, we can all argue that Europe needs to be less dependent on
       | the US, however what's on the other side of that is not pretty
       | for the United States. Our ability to have the world's de facto
       | reserve currency and hence our ability to sustain debt loads way
       | in excess of usual is largely dependent on the US being the
       | world's cop and sole superpower.
       | 
       | A truly multipolar world might be good for the world, but it's
       | certainly not going to be good for the United States.
        
         | insane_dreamer wrote:
         | Good for Europe in the long run (potentially)
        
         | jltsiren wrote:
         | It's one thing to stop all aid to Ukraine. That makes you an
         | asshole in a world full of assholes. But it's another thing to
         | do that while simultaneously working to restore relations with
         | Russia. There is only one word for that: evil.
         | 
         | Back in the late 90s to late 2000s, people in Western Europe
         | generally had pretty negative views of the US. It was the
         | country that refused to fight against climate change, launched
         | an invasion of another country based on obvious lies, and so
         | on. People were genuinely debating whether Bush was a bigger
         | villain than Putin. And it wasn't just about the young and the
         | left. Our elites hated Bush so much that they gave the next guy
         | a Nobel Peace Prize for not being him.
         | 
         | Since then, Putin has worked hard to raise the bar for being a
         | bigger villain. But Trump seems to be genuinely trying to
         | compete.
        
           | seanmcdirmid wrote:
           | Why do people think it is so far fetched that Trump is a
           | Russian asset given his behavior in his last term (trying to
           | blackmail Zelenskyy on an official call) and his credit
           | problems in the past (no banks would lend to him given his
           | failure to pay back any loan, with the exception of an
           | obscure channel through a German bank)? Perhaps Trump is just
           | in debt to Putin and this is payback, he was intentionally
           | crass to Zelenskyy because he wanted to provoke him and find
           | an excuse to revoke US aid. If it barks like a dog, often
           | it's really a dog.
        
             | salynchnew wrote:
             | I don't go in for most conspiracy theories, but there is
             | this:
             | https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/17/deutsche-
             | ba...
             | 
             | (second half of the article)
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | The MAGA crowd literally is all about conspiracy
               | theories, heck, Trump is the head conspiracy theorist-
               | and-chief.
        
             | throwaway48476 wrote:
             | The phone was a domestic politics issue.
             | 
             | Actual Russian assets exist, people like Jackson Hinkle and
             | Tim Pool. Trump generally doesn't fit the mold.
        
               | _DeadFred_ wrote:
               | A good method is to make predictions based on an
               | assumption. A month ago, a CRAZY prediction of actions if
               | Trump was a Russian agent would be:
               | 
               | Active attempts to remove Zelinsky. Stop all aid. Remove
               | sanctions on Russia. Stop are cyber activity and planning
               | of such against Russia.
               | 
               | Trump has done all of the above (well he's only ordered
               | the removing of sanctions as of today).
        
               | card_zero wrote:
               | Would Russian oil, which I seem to remember is heavy in
               | grade, replace Canadian oil, which I hear is similarly
               | heavy, in US refineries, explaining the 25% tariff on
               | Canada which is implausibly supposed to be about fentanyl
               | controls?
        
               | throwaway48476 wrote:
               | It would need to be transported by ship which presents
               | some problems. Canadian oil has pipelines which are very
               | cheap.
        
             | bradhe wrote:
             | People don't want to admit it.
        
             | tim333 wrote:
             | I don't know how you define asset but it seems beyond doubt
             | that Trump and Russia do each other favours.
        
             | citrin_ru wrote:
             | It's plausible that Trump owes some $$$ but what would stop
             | Trump from just refusing to pay the debt back?
        
               | ty6853 wrote:
               | It would come as no surprise if Russian intelligence has
               | some juicy blackmail material.
        
               | gruez wrote:
               | Against the man that seemingly suffered no setback from
               | "grab her by the pussy" and all the various lawsuits?
        
               | Henchman21 wrote:
               | Yes. For example if he were caught in the act with other
               | men? That might cause the MAGAs to turn on him.
        
               | jajko wrote:
               | Imagine having fun with animals, men, children, bsdm and
               | so on. That's not even bottom of the pit.
               | 
               | I mean he was a good friend with epstein and there are
               | numerous videos of their friendly encounters (so did
               | clinton, gates and so on just to be clear). Go figure.
               | 
               | But I think he is just a small insecure emotional boy at
               | the core, and thats enough if you know which buttons in
               | which order to push. ruskies somehow figured that out, it
               | seems israelis too during his first term.
        
               | csa wrote:
               | > Imagine having fun with animals, men, children, bsdm
               | and so on. That's not even bottom of the pit.
               | 
               | Other than children/minors, I don't think the others are
               | likely. Possible, but not likely.
               | 
               | Whatever kompromat they have was almost certainly came
               | during the 2013 miss universe pageant in Russia. It would
               | have been trivially easy to get an old enough-looking
               | minor in the room with him.
        
               | joquarky wrote:
               | Yeah, this is where I'm at. Nothing sticks to him, and
               | anything he does seems to get excused, so what kind of
               | kompromat could even be severe enough to influence him?
        
               | csa wrote:
               | > It would come as no surprise if Russian intelligence
               | has some juicy blackmail material.
               | 
               | I'm pretty sure the only blackmail that could be bad
               | enough to motivate Trump would be if he had relations
               | with a minor. I'm pretty sure that's the only thing that
               | could make the core of his base alienate him.
               | 
               | Whatever kinks people speculate about, none of that will
               | matter. In fact, I bet whatever kink he is into would
               | instantly become more popular amongst his core
               | constituents.
        
               | ziml77 wrote:
               | I'm not even convinced him doing things witch a minor
               | would make his base hate him. More likely is they'll just
               | call it a lie or excuse it as something like "well she
               | looked old enough. What was he supposed to do, ask for
               | her ID card?"
        
               | josefresco wrote:
               | Balconies
        
               | Tadpole9181 wrote:
               | It's almost like he was once investigated for being a
               | Russian agent motivated by Kompromat. I'm sure it has
               | nothing to do with being a friend of Epstein and showing
               | up in the manifests or Russian prostitutes with water
               | sports or the 13 year old who sued him for raping her,
               | not dissimilar from the civil lawsuit where he was found
               | guilty for raping another woman, not dissimilar from him
               | bragging he can just sexual assault any woman he wants.
        
             | mandmandam wrote:
             | They (the GOP, Democrats, national and intl intelligence
             | agencies) all have blackmail on each other. It hasn't made
             | sense to think about these issues purely on national lines
             | for a long time - try thinking in terms of a large
             | international mafia with various families and factions;
             | held together by unspeakable secrets.
             | 
             | Sarah Kendzior and Whitney Webb produce great writing about
             | this, thoroughly sourced. For example, here's a piece from
             | Sarah's latest newsletter Q and A:
             | 
             | > What is the hold that Trump has over the Republicans? It
             | has to be more than simply the threat of a primary. Do you
             | think it involves threats of violence? It's a mystery to me
             | what could be so frightening that this large group of
             | people would forsake their country.
             | 
             | > SK: Trump has leverage over the GOP due to 1) lifelong
             | connections with organized crime and willingness to deploy
             | violence 2) blackmail obtained long before 2016 via his
             | mentor, mafia lawyer and GOP advisor Roy Cohn, and Cohn's
             | networks 3) blackmail and state secrets Trump obtained
             | during his first term 4) court packing that creates the
             | potential of legal consequences for anyone who challenges
             | him 5) bribery and/or shared evil goals with the GOP,
             | though for many this incentive fades over time when they
             | realize they will never be more than a disposable hired
             | hand. Many Republicans were lured by corrupt ambition, but
             | they stay due to fear.
             | 
             | And lest you think this is a one-sided problem:
             | https://sarahkendzior.substack.com/p/servants-of-the-
             | mafia-s...
        
               | NeutralCrane wrote:
               | Lmao, this is the dumbest conspiracy theory I've read in
               | a while. National politicians are afraid of being
               | murdered by the Mafia on Trump's orders? Good grief.
               | 
               | Even if you put the absurdity of that kind of thing
               | aside, look at the actual facts. Trump burns through
               | advisors and cabinet members on a nearly weekly basis,
               | and many of those have gone on to become scathing critics
               | of his. He has tons of vocal enemies from within the
               | Republican Party, who are quickly sidelined or ousted but
               | never harmed.
               | 
               | The reason Republicans have all fallen in line behind
               | Trump is because they ultimately want nothing more than
               | power and wealth. Once it became clear that Trump has
               | tapped into an indestructible movement of American
               | populist stupidity that isn't going anywhere, anyone who
               | wanted to have a job in Republican politics quickly
               | figured out that there was only one way to do so: join
               | the never ending Trump pep-rally.
        
               | mandmandam wrote:
               | > National politicians are afraid of being murdered by
               | the Mafia on Trump's orders? Good grief.
               | 
               | Not what I said, or what Sarah said. But yes, politicians
               | are getting threatened because of Trump. Politicians
               | themselves report receiving hundreds of death threats;
               | some of them seriously credible [0].
               | 
               | All Trump has to do is tweet, and people have their lives
               | "turned upside down". They start getting death threats;
               | even their boss gets threatened. And votes get changed
               | around real quick. This is _documented_ , on record -
               | like Trump's connections... You might ask yourself why
               | you never heard about it, and what else you never hear
               | about.
               | 
               | > He has tons of vocal enemies from within the Republican
               | Party, who are quickly sidelined or ousted but never
               | harmed.
               | 
               | Drama which doesn't affect votes, or _anything_ material,
               | is best ignored as theater. Threats and theater - they do
               | exist pal. They 're very much part of politics,
               | especially in the US, and have been for a long long time.
               | 
               | > Even if you put the absurdity of that kind of thing
               | aside
               | 
               | It's not absurd at all. If you believe US politicians -
               | and international politicians - don't get threatened,
               | then you don't understand the stakes, or the amount of
               | money involved, or the characters of these people.
               | 
               | > Once it became clear that Trump has tapped into an
               | indestructible movement of American populist stupidity
               | that isn't going anywhere, anyone who wanted to have a
               | job in Republican politics quickly figured out that there
               | was only one way to do so: join the never ending Trump
               | pep-rally.
               | 
               | And so Trump doesn't need or use blackmail, or threats of
               | violence? Buddy. My guy.
               | 
               | 0 - https://www.theguardian.com/us-
               | news/2025/feb/27/republicans-...
        
             | nprateem wrote:
             | It's the only explanation that makes any sense.
             | 
             | But it wouldn't be a financial debt more likely some
             | humiliating kompromat. That's Trump's biggest fear.
             | 
             | And Putin probably has plenty from Trump's visits there.
        
           | narrator wrote:
           | We allied with Stalin in world war III, now that's evil.
           | Putin will be a good ally against China, who is an actual
           | threat to the United States.
        
             | 9dev wrote:
             | An ally that has broken pretty much any agreement he has
             | ever made, invades neighbouring countries and spins
             | alternative facts around to justify it, suppresses and
             | fights just about any values that the USA used to hold, and
             | played a key role in the KGB, a hostile secret service? An
             | ally that is ever more dependent on China economically?
             | 
             | I refuse to believe you can be so dense to actually think
             | that!
        
               | wewxjfq wrote:
               | It's so heavily being pushed on social media right now, I
               | suspect it's coming from the same forces who tried to
               | make people believe that Trump would deliver more weapons
               | to Ukraine and that Trump would be the better option for
               | Palestine.
        
             | wewxjfq wrote:
             | Let me quote Harry S. Truman:
             | 
             | > If we see that Germany is winning we ought to help Russia
             | and if Russia is winning we ought to help Germany, and that
             | way let them kill as many as possible.
        
             | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
             | Putin ally against China? He's the one who signed a "no
             | limits" friendship deal with Xi Xinping. China and Russia
             | are intimate trading partners and they have shared
             | geopolitical interests. Why would he object if China wants
             | to take over Taiwan or something?
        
             | _DeadFred_ wrote:
             | Oh look, new talking point on why aligning with Putin is
             | actual fine has dropped.
        
         | mayama wrote:
         | > Our ability to have the world's de facto reserve currency and
         | hence our ability to sustain debt loads way in excess of usual
         | is largely dependent on the US being the world's cop and sole
         | superpower.
         | 
         | Dollar status as reserve currency started unravelling quite
         | some time ago. It started with China's started becoming world's
         | factory, more so after they got in to WTO and started using it
         | to their advantage. My belief is that wallstreet believed that
         | they could influence or coerce Chinese leadership into opening
         | up Chinese economy and profit from that, all that G2 talk.
         | China after 2008 crisis with ascension of Xi, belt road,
         | challenges to foreign companies etc. acted completely against
         | wallstreet expectations. Now, America can either try splitting
         | world economy and be sole power in their sphere or start
         | working towards multi polar world.
        
           | impossiblefork wrote:
           | Yes, but it would have taken a decade or more with sensible
           | US policy.
           | 
           | You were still benefiting from the setup, and were going to
           | continue to benefit for a long time. Look at Boeing's
           | valuation, for example. No profit, still higher market cap
           | than Airbus.
        
         | kstenerud wrote:
         | This is, unfortunately about one thing only: The Nobel Peace
         | Prize.
         | 
         | As Trump sees it, Zelenskyy is blocking Trump's peace prize by
         | not agreeing to his (very bad) terms that are designed with one
         | purpose in mind: Quickly freezing the conflict so that he can
         | declare himself peacemaker and get his prize (because Obama got
         | his 9 months into his term).
         | 
         | The Russians have been grooming him since the 80s (along with
         | many others of that era - standard Soviet practice), flattering
         | him and selling him on dreams of being president, and then
         | after Obama got a peace prize, of getting his own Nobel prize.
         | 
         | Watch what his aides are saying about the Nobel prize. He wants
         | it BAD.
         | 
         | This is why he told Zelenskyy: "You're either going to make a
         | deal or we're out. And if we're out, you'll fight it out. I
         | don't think that it's going to be pretty, but you'll fight it
         | out. But you don't have the cards." This is why he said "Let me
         | tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me." This is
         | why he booted Zenelskyy out of the White House and banned him
         | until he's "ready for peace"
         | 
         | This is why he's going to end the sanctions against Russia, and
         | if Europe continues to support Ukraine, sanction them instead.
         | Anyone who blocks his Nobel Peace Prize is the enemy.
         | 
         | Trump: "They probably will never give it to me, even what I'm
         | doing in Korea, and in Idlib province and all of these places.
         | They probably will never give it to me. You know why? Because
         | they don't want to."
         | 
         | Trump: "They will never give me a Nobel Peace Prize. It's too
         | bad. I deserve it, but they will never give it to me."
        
           | BobbyTables2 wrote:
           | Was news to me, but crazy enough to seem plausible. I now see
           | a lot of news headlines talking about it.
           | 
           | On the bright side, if that happens, Alfred Nobel's grave
           | will become a perpetual motion machine...
        
             | Terr_ wrote:
             | spin = audience_size * ((renown + defamation) /
             | skeleton_mass
             | 
             | https://dresdencodak.com/2010/06/10/dark-science-02/
        
             | kstenerud wrote:
             | The thing is, the Nobel Committee for the Peace Prize is
             | Norwegian. And Norway has a land border with Russia...
        
               | geysersam wrote:
               | The thing what? That has absolutely nothing to do with it
        
               | echoangle wrote:
               | You don't think Norwegians will hesitate to give trump
               | the peace price if he does what he does?
        
               | Gud wrote:
               | They absolutely will not give it to Trump. If anyone will
               | get it, it will be the people of Ukraine.
        
               | jajko wrote:
               | Dude 'nobel' peace prize has nothing to do with actual
               | scientific Nobel prices as they were originally intended,
               | its highly political medal for various political stances
               | and activism dobe by very different people.
               | 
               | The list of its recipients with properly shameful past
               | ain't short neither and I don't recall a single one
               | recently which wasn't somehow controversial to put it
               | mildly.
        
               | dagss wrote:
               | As a Norwegian ... the odds of a committee formed in
               | Norway to select Trump for the peace prize is just zero.
        
               | geysersam wrote:
               | I didn't say that. I said their border with Russia
               | doesn't influence that decision.
        
               | echoangle wrote:
               | But why wouldn't it? It seems sensible that Norwegians
               | are more concerned with Russian aggression than the
               | average westerner, so they would also disapprove more of
               | trump, no?
        
               | dmos62 wrote:
               | Why?
        
               | dagss wrote:
               | The committee selecting the winner is formed of
               | Norwegians. Norwegians "average worldview" and sources of
               | information therefore affects who gets the prize.
        
           | Rzor wrote:
           | This is quite inconsistent because Trump conditioned the rare
           | earths deal. If he wanted peace that badly, he wouldn't be
           | imposing that. Also, you don't win a Peace Nobel by being a
           | system spoiler like he is, creating instability left and
           | right and branding a stick. That's completely delusional,
           | even for him. He goes around talking about annexing Canada,
           | taking Greenland, and displacing Palestinians -- where's the
           | peace in that? Obama got his without doing shit, guess why:
           | the Nobel Peace Prize is about who you upset, and I very much
           | doubt the committee is fond of Trump, especially since they
           | gave the prize to Obama.
        
           | darthrupert wrote:
           | They gave Obama the peace prize before he had done anything.
           | He even mentioned how weird it was in his speech.
           | 
           | I think we can say that the image of that prize is already in
           | the mud, but of course giving it to Trump at this point would
           | finish it off.
        
           | 7bit wrote:
           | This is not about the novel peace price. This is about
           | resources that the US wants. And it's about displaying power.
           | 
           | Don't make it anything less by talking about the novel prize.
        
           | throwaway48476 wrote:
           | Someone told trump he could get a peace prize for ending the
           | war in Ukraine. They forgot to tell him that it's the
           | Europeans who give it.
        
           | nprateem wrote:
           | This makes no sense.
           | 
           | Zelenskyy should just have said "If Russia won't break any
           | treaty, you shouldn't have a problem providing a backstop"
           | 
           | Trump just wants to rape Ukraine while he can. It's nothing
           | to do with peace. If he was serious he could offer a backstop
           | and get peace over night.
        
             | lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote:
             | > It's nothing to do with peace.
             | 
             | OP never said it was about peace but about Trump winning
             | the Nobel Peace Prize.
             | 
             | > Trump just wants to rape Ukraine while he can.
             | 
             | He wants to do this and get the Nobel Peace Prize for it.
             | Does that really seem an implausible goal with this guy?
        
               | nprateem wrote:
               | Well normally they're related (although Obama got one
               | before doing much)
        
         | nyargh wrote:
         | Bold of you to assume that the goal of the current
         | administration is to maintain USD hegemony. They've stated
         | explicitly several times that they feel the dollar is too
         | expensive and gone on at length about the trade "deficit". Even
         | going so far with Trump and Musk hinting that they will renig
         | on US foreign debt obligations ("lots of fraud in treasuries"),
         | which would destroy the value of the USD overnight if they
         | followed through.
         | 
         | It seems clear to me one goal of the current admin is to
         | transform the US into an export economy, and the strong
         | currency is one major roadblock in reaching their objective.
         | 
         | Would love to see more analysis on this, as their trial
         | balloons around tanking USD seem to have gotten lost in the
         | noise.
        
         | csomar wrote:
         | It is not a petty tantrum though it might look like one. You
         | have to consider that the incumbents have won the US elections,
         | that's not a small feat. What many people are missing is that
         | if the US main challenger is China and beating Russia is a far
         | thing, then it makes sense for the US to ally with Russia
         | against China. For that, the US might need to give Russia
         | something (some EU countries?) for this hustle and also refund
         | it for the earlier war (yep). But if the administration
         | believes this is worth it to contain China then it's the right
         | call.
         | 
         | This is why European countries are freaking out. They might be
         | seeing the change as being more fundamental than a two guys
         | liking/hating each other and that a trade might involve their
         | territory in an unfortunate moment (though a part of this is
         | their own negligence).
        
           | klipt wrote:
           | > it makes sense for the US to ally with Russia against China
           | 
           | Economically and population wise Russia is tiny compared to
           | the West (Canada, EU, etc) It makes no sense to trade our
           | alliance with the West for alliance with much weaker and
           | poorer Russia.
           | 
           | I think Russia has compromising info on Trump. That's the
           | simplest explanation.
        
             | csomar wrote:
             | Russia advantage is its large border with China. The US is
             | not allying because of their (non) existent economy. But
             | they'll be a formidable ally in case of a war against
             | China.
        
               | throwaway48476 wrote:
               | Russia has no interest in being an ally against China.
        
               | klipt wrote:
               | You're trying to sell this as the USA dividing and
               | conquering Russia and China against each other.
               | 
               | But it looks much more like Russia dividing and
               | conquering the USA from the rest of the democratic, human
               | rights supporting West.
        
               | rdm_blackhole wrote:
               | > But it looks much more like Russia dividing and
               | conquering the USA from the rest of the democratic, human
               | rights supporting West.
               | 
               | Yes, the famous human rights where people get visited by
               | the cops for a Facebook post or an offensive tweet like
               | in the UK.
               | 
               | Also, regarding the UK who just recently forced Apple to
               | remove it's EtoE encryption because it wants access to
               | all the data of it's citizens violating the fundamental
               | right of privacy?
               | 
               | What about the UK terror law where they can detain you at
               | the border without telling you why and for as long as
               | they want, where you can't have a lawyer present with you
               | in the room while they interrogate you and while they go
               | through all your electronics + email + phone and you
               | don't have the right to refuse giving them your passwords
               | otherwise you will be jailed?
               | 
               | Russia is bad, terrible even but let's not pretend that
               | some of the western countries haven't been sliding in
               | proto-fascism either.
               | 
               | Lets also not forget that the UK took part in the illegal
               | invasion of Afghanistan and Irak, which led to the
               | disastrous consequences that we know today.
               | 
               | I think it would be best for the West to stop lecturing
               | the world about democracy and human rights and the rule
               | of law for a while and start by cleaning it's own house
               | first because it doesn't have much credibility left on
               | these matters.
        
               | gizzlon wrote:
               | That's a lot of what-about-ism .. Of course we can and
               | should criticize other countries, but here it's just a
               | distraction.
               | 
               | Do you _really_ think the UK is as bad or worse then
               | Russia? Because if not, what the fuck is your point?
        
               | rdm_blackhole wrote:
               | > That's a lot of what-about-ism
               | 
               | No those are facts. Simple as that. What is your
               | contention exactly with what I said?
               | 
               | > what the fuck is your point?
               | 
               | Why the aggressiveness? We are all here to have a
               | peaceful conversation. You may disagree with me and that
               | is fine but we don't have to get at each other's throat.
               | 
               | > Do you really think the UK is as bad or worse then
               | Russia?
               | 
               | You must have missed part of my comment if you are asking
               | this question.
               | 
               | > Russia is bad, terrible even
               | 
               | That's from my comment.
               | 
               | > Of course we can and should criticize other countries
               | 
               | Exactly my point. I am criticizing all the countries that
               | infringe on human rights and that includes Russia and the
               | UK an whoever else engages in these sorts of things.
               | 
               | My point was that simply asserting that the West respects
               | human rights when we know that that is not always the
               | case is the like the pot calling the kettle black.
               | 
               | You can go and give lessons of democracy and human rights
               | when you stop detaining your own citizens for arbitrary
               | reasons and without cause and without having the right to
               | be represented by a lawyer.
               | 
               | Now, if you think that this is perfectly acceptable in a
               | democracy, then I guess we don't have the same concept of
               | human rights then.
        
               | gizzlon wrote:
               | I didn't say they weren't facts. I said it's
               | whatoboutism:
               | 
               | > Whataboutism or whataboutery (as in "what about ...?")
               | is a pejorative for the strategy of responding to an
               | accusation with a counter-accusation instead of a defense
               | against the original accusation. > > The communication
               | intent is often to distract from the content of a topic
               | (red herring). The goal may also be to question the
               | justification for criticism and the legitimacy,
               | integrity, and fairness of the critic, which can take on
               | the character of discrediting the criticism, which may or
               | may not be justified
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism
               | 
               | The topic is Russia dividing and conquering the USA from
               | Europe and other nations. Not: are Europe perfectly
               | living up to its stated humanist goals.
               | 
               | > Why the aggressiveness?
               | 
               | I guess it comes from this being a very common tactic to
               | shut down any criticism and debate. Maybe you didn't mean
               | to do that, in that case I'm sorry for assigning
               | malignant intentions.
        
               | ViewTrick1002 wrote:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriot_Act
        
               | eldgfipo wrote:
               | Russian lost hundreds of thousand men, I'm not sure
               | they'll be willing to ally themselves with the US to
               | contain China anytime soon, they'll pursue what's in
               | their best interest and play every side.
               | 
               | Time for Europeans to wake up and do the same.
        
               | chimpontherun wrote:
               | That border is either mountain ranges (Altai), or empty
               | steppes (Zabaikalsk), or boreal forests (Amur and
               | Vladivostok). Either way -- the area lacks infrastructure
               | and even roads, for the most part. It doesn't provide any
               | military advantage, especially given that the Chinese
               | side of the border is much better developed.
               | 
               | If anything, the area is not defensible against even a
               | half-ass incursion effort from the south (either
               | economical or military-driven), which they're actually in
               | the middle of (the economical one for now) without
               | realizing that.
        
               | mrighele wrote:
               | It could be an advantage for the US, but it looks to me
               | like a liability for Russia, since they don't have enough
               | manpower to guard it.
               | 
               | In case of war between China and Russia I could easily
               | see Chinese invading large swaths of lands without any
               | meaningful opposition. Populations in eastern Russia are
               | treated more like than colonial subjects than regular
               | citizen, so I don't think they will mind too much a new
               | overlord.
               | 
               | Assuming they had the troops to get there, they cannot
               | move all of them to the border with China and leave the
               | western front unguarded
        
             | chgs wrote:
             | What info would possibly be compromising to Trump. His cult
             | spreads across half the country. They won't believe
             | anything, including audio and video.
        
           | Teever wrote:
           | This seems quite reasonable on the surface but it neglects
           | the evidence of sheer incompetence from the first Trump term.
           | 
           | There's no 5d chess here. There's no scenario where ceding
           | Poland and Ukraine to Russian authoritarians leads to a more
           | free world and a victory over Chinese aithoritarianism.
           | There's just rampant and opportunitistic corruption.
           | 
           | The US is being carved up from the inside and nothing about
           | this process will help the impending conflict against China.
           | 
           | The sooner we all recognize this like the Europeans seem to
           | be doing is the sooner we can coordinate to destroy
           | authoritarians wherever they may call home.
        
             | ZeroGravitas wrote:
             | The only country Trump has helped more than Russia is
             | China.
             | 
             | Apparently being racist is all you need to do to cover up
             | handing geopolitical victory repeatedly to a large and rich
             | country.
             | 
             | The right wing is up for sale all over the world.
        
           | citrin_ru wrote:
           | Russia is close to becoming a Chinese client state. I don't
           | think Trump can stop this.
        
           | Gud wrote:
           | This makes no sense.
           | 
           | Russia has the economy on parity with Italy.
        
           | inglor_cz wrote:
           | I don't see how Russia would
           | 
           | a) be willing to join a US-led coalition against China, given
           | that the US foreign policy stopped being consistent and the
           | next administration may well make a sharp turn again;
           | 
           | b) be capable of joining a US-led coalition against China
           | when they now spent 3 years slowly restructuring their
           | infrastructure and industry from Western products to Chinese
           | products and any break in the relations with China would mean
           | a full stop for support, spare parts etc., which US alone,
           | with its depleted industrial platform, is unable to
           | compensate for.
           | 
           | Not to mention that Russian nationalists HATE the idea of
           | Russia being a junior partner to anyone and especially to the
           | Anglo-Saxons. That would be hard sell even from Putin.
        
             | watwut wrote:
             | > Not to mention that Russian nationalists HATE the idea of
             | Russia being a junior partner to anyone and especially to
             | the Anglo-Saxons. That would be hard sell even from Putin.
             | 
             | America would be the junior partner. I do not see Russia
             | doing anything for America, it is just America giving
             | Russia what they want.
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | Politically maybe, but as far as raw force goes, Russians
               | have been reduced to deploying donkeys in battlefield
               | logistics. That is a big capability gap, and won't be
               | easily bridged.
               | 
               | The next POTUS may not be as prostrate to Russia as Trump
               | is, even if a Republican.
        
           | djhn wrote:
           | > their own negligence.
           | 
           | The US took Ukraine's nukes in exchange for safety
           | guarantees.
           | 
           | The true extent of US commitment to european security has
           | been clear to everyone for at least ten years.
           | 
           | Hell, the French nuclear programme was premised on the fact
           | that Paris didn't trust the US to defend France. Do you think
           | the easternmost NATO states have built their military
           | doctrine on blind trust in Uncle Sam?
        
             | leovingi wrote:
             | > The US took Ukraine's nukes in exchange for safety
             | guarantees.
             | 
             | Please read the actual text of the memorandum, so you don't
             | spread any more baseless accusations. It's only 1 page,
             | it'll just take you a minute and the language it is written
             | in is very accessible.
             | 
             | https://en.wikisource.org/w/index.php?title=Ukraine_Memoran
             | d...
             | 
             | The only point that even touches on any kind of guarantees
             | is essentially a promise to "seek immediate United Nations
             | Security Council action" in the case of an attack or a
             | threat of attack IN WHICH NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE USED. That
             | last part is always conveniently left out whenever anyone
             | tries to throw out the soundbite of "They gave up their
             | nukes for security guarantees". And even if you assume that
             | the nuclear weapon part only covers the "threat" part of
             | the sentence and not the "attack", then you're still left
             | with the only solid guarantee being the seeking of United
             | Nations Security Council action.
        
               | djhn wrote:
               | The Budapest Memorandum on its own is not the only
               | document that you should consult. We may debate the
               | degree to which 'assurances' differ from 'guarantees',
               | but considering the vagueness of international law I
               | would leave interpretation of primary sources to scholars
               | and statesmen.
               | 
               | In the eyes of the people in Europe, the US response to
               | the war has been been lacklustre from the very beginning,
               | only marginally improving after Russia's 2/2022
               | escalation.
        
               | leovingi wrote:
               | There is not a single country in the world that has given
               | more money and weapons to Ukraine than the United States.
               | 
               | If the people in Europe find that to be a lackluster
               | response, then it is not surprising that Trump sent Vance
               | over to humiliate them, because they need a wake-up call
               | and they needed it yesterday.
        
           | paradox242 wrote:
           | So the plan is to burn all of our current allies who joined
           | us under a framework we devised largely for our own benefit
           | so that we could maybe gain the favor of someone who is even
           | less trustworthy and reliable than we are at this point
           | against China? You really think this is smart? Trump is
           | delivering the Russians their number 1 strategic goal since
           | World War 2 by destroying NATO and trading this for seemingly
           | nothing, which at this point again raises serious questions
           | about what his actual motivations are with regard to his
           | otherwise unexplainable deference to Putin and Russia in all
           | things.
        
           | FrozenSynapse wrote:
           | Russia would never trust US. Russia would never ally itself
           | with US against China. What makes you think they will
           | suddenly turn on their ally China, to side with US (their
           | always-enemy)?
           | 
           | Economically, allying with Russia is stupid, they're poor.
           | The only way they are making it through this war economy is
           | the fact that Russian people are patient and are used to bad
           | economy. The average anual salary in Russia is below $10K.
        
             | codedokode wrote:
             | $10K/year is not that bad, you won't die from hunger and
             | can buy all necessary things. Also, it is more than in
             | previous years (cannot believe, but it was somewhere around
             | $1K/year in 2000 when Putin came into power).
        
           | Scea91 wrote:
           | It seems more and more that if war between US and China
           | starts it will be US-initiated. You just can't stand not
           | being the top dog anymore.
           | 
           | For context, EU+UK is over 500M people, Russia is 143M.
           | 
           | I think two weeks back many Europeans took for granted (at
           | least I did) we would get involved in the Pacific theatre if
           | needed on US side, but after what is happenning now... I am
           | for not getting involved in any coflict in Pacific if US
           | treats us this way.
        
           | amluto wrote:
           | How would Russia help "contain" China? China's actual
           | territorial ambitions have never been especially wide
           | ranging, and I really doubt that Russia would make a credible
           | deal to help keep China's military out of Taiwan.
           | 
           | To the contrary, China's increasing power is _economic_. They
           | out-manufacture everyone. They appear to be beating the US at
           | its own recent games (BYD seems to be ahead of Tesla!). They
           | have plenty of software expertise these days. They are
           | approximately caught up in AI. They also happen to lead in
           | non-petroleum-dependent energy, and Russia's main strength is
           | in its oil and gas resources.
           | 
           | If the US wants to remain a dominant economic power, how is
           | Russia going to help?
        
             | rKarpinski wrote:
             | > How would Russia help "contain" China?
             | 
             | They have a giant land border. An adversarial Russia-China
             | relationship is expensive for both powers, and is a major
             | reason for the USSR going bankrupt in the cold war (also
             | the USSR propping up Vietnam after China invaded in 79).
        
         | narrator wrote:
         | The difference is Israel's enemies are easy to defeat. Russia,
         | not so much. Europe made the same mistake as in world war II.
         | Believing their own propaganda and convincing themselves that
         | Russia would be easy to defeat. Trump talks to the military and
         | knows what's reality.
        
           | 9dev wrote:
           | So easy that Iran is still going strong, working on their
           | nuclear weapons programme, with an outspoken goal of
           | destroying Israel?
        
           | amluto wrote:
           | I wasn't around for WWII, but now don't think you have this
           | quite right. The US fought against Germany and its allies
           | (and Japan, which had directly attacked the US and continued
           | to fight after Germany surrendered). The war was never
           | against Russia.
           | 
           | Sure, maybe the US could have invaded Russia afterwards, but
           | that would have been a disaster, kind of like how Germany's
           | invasion of Russia was a disaster and a bit like how Russia's
           | recent invasion of Ukraine has been a real mess for Russia.
        
             | hnfong wrote:
             | Well, GP isn't wrong. Nazi Germany controlled most of
             | Europe in WWII, fought against Russia (Soviet Union) and
             | lost...
        
               | amluto wrote:
               | Somehow I assumed post meant "Allies" by "Europe", but I
               | guess it was rather ambiguous.
        
           | Narretz wrote:
           | Israel is using these bombs on Hamas and Hezbollah mostly,
           | both of which it hasn't defeated after 1 1/2 years of
           | complete material superiority. It's actually impossible to
           | defeat an enemy that uses asymmetric warfare. Israel already
           | knows this, but Netanjahu needs the war to continue to stay
           | in power.
        
           | aprilthird2021 wrote:
           | If they're so easy to defeat why have we sent $30B+ to a
           | country with a good economy and great quality of life for its
           | own people to help them defeat them? Maybe they should pay
           | for it all themselves since they keep prolonging all their
           | wars?
        
           | arandomusername wrote:
           | Actually, the difference is that a high amount of government
           | officials are loyal to Israel.
        
         | nanotuber wrote:
         | It's a negotiation tactic. It's trying to force Ukraine's hand
         | to come to negotiations. That's adherent to many Trump
         | policies:
         | 
         | - Force a resolution of the conflict
         | 
         | - Get Europe to pay for its own security
         | 
         | - Focus on Iran and the Middle East
         | 
         | - Pivot to competition with China
         | 
         | - Deter Sino-Russia cooperation
         | 
         | - Reduce US spending and deficit
        
         | tempodox wrote:
         | > if there was a clear policy
         | 
         | Nope, it's pure chaos, but that's where Trump thrives the most.
         | It's the perfect diversion, nobody knows what he'll destroy
         | next.
        
       | insane_dreamer wrote:
       | while pausing the "aid" may save the US gov money; the money was
       | mostly coming back to the US anyway in the form of weapons
       | purchases. NYT:
       | 
       | > The order takes effect immediately and affects more than $1
       | billion in arms and ammunition in the pipeline and on order. Mr.
       | Trump's directive also halts hundreds of millions of dollars in
       | aid that Kyiv can use only to buy new military hardware directly
       | from U.S. defense companies.
        
         | skeletal88 wrote:
         | And everyone in Europe will want our governments and armies to
         | stop buying stuff made in the US, especially weapons and ammo.
         | 
         | Why support your country with our money if you don't want to
         | support us at all?
         | 
         | Your defence companies will face huge losses because of this.
        
           | jajko wrote:
           | Those F35s are a security risk at this point. Better migrate
           | to Typhoons, Rafales and Gripens etc and have some unified
           | research re radars and missiles to split costs.
        
       | insane_dreamer wrote:
       | Hesgeth is sending an extra $4B to Israel (in case anyone thinks
       | this is about saving money).
        
         | lifestyleguru wrote:
         | America in unable to sustain such active support for two
         | countries simultaneously, so it's picking Israel. Israeli
         | lobbying is much more far-reaching than European so American
         | attention is shifting there. EU has 3-4 years to ram up but its
         | leaders are the same self-absorbed as Trump (only less big
         | mouthed), so in 3-4 years Europeans will have to absorb
         | whatever Putin will come up with.
        
           | insane_dreamer wrote:
           | Except that one one country is resisting invasion by its
           | bigger bully neighbor that is killing its civilian
           | population, while the other is the bigger bully neighbor
           | killing a civilian population and reducing it to rubble.
           | 
           | A pretty clear indication that America stands on the side of
           | the aggressors and doesn't give a fuck about you know
           | ordinary people being killed. Shameful.
        
             | lifestyleguru wrote:
             | The ethical "who's who" is irrelevant for US, in both cases
             | they have "big beautiful ocean" inbetween.
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | Well, you know, some of us don't like watching people be
               | killed for no reason, even if there is an ocean between
               | us.
               | 
               | It becomes a question for the US: "Are you who you have
               | said you were for the last 80 years? Or are you just
               | power with no morals?" I think that's actually a relevant
               | question. Who are we going to be?
        
               | insane_dreamer wrote:
               | I'm pretty sure the previous author meant that it's
               | irrelevant to Trump ("big beautiful ocean" is his quote),
               | who clearly believes in "power with no morals".
               | Machiavelli would be proud.
               | 
               | It is highly relevant to the American population - but
               | the sad fact is, most Americans don't care and haven't
               | cared for a long time. The US' foreign policy has been
               | built mostly on "power" (hard or soft) with very little
               | in the way of morals or concern for the actual people --
               | sometimes, a bit here and there, but mostly it's a PR
               | move.
               | 
               | But at least having the _pretence_ of the moral
               | highground forced the US to do some good amidst all of
               | its bad. Now that Trump has cast that aside and "naked
               | power" is the mot du jour, there's no need to do keep
               | doing any good anymore. Thus: help Russia keep killing
               | Ukrainians, and help Israel keep killing Palestinians.
        
               | rad_gruchalski wrote:
               | The ocean doesn't stop anyone. If you don't believe, have
               | a look at the southern border.
        
           | aprilthird2021 wrote:
           | It's a huge mistake, imo. Israel is going to continue to
           | ostracize itself on the global stage till it's the next South
           | Africa and all our money will have been wasted. That's my
           | belief anyways
        
             | insane_dreamer wrote:
             | > Israel is going to continue to ostracize itself on the
             | global stage
             | 
             | Israel has been doing this for decades. It will never
             | become a pariah like S.Africa was so long as the US
             | continues its "unwavering support" for Israel regardless of
             | what it does (and this is firmly supported by both
             | parties). And then people say that the AIPAC lobby isn't
             | real ...
             | 
             | During the Cold War you could sort of claim that US'
             | unwavering support for Israel was a counter-balance to the
             | USSR's support of the Arabs, and therefore "necessary" in
             | the global game between the 2 superpowers. But now that
             | USSR is gone (Russia in even out of Syria), there's no more
             | excuse.
        
         | BeFlatXIII wrote:
         | MAGA? More like Make Israel Great Again!
        
           | aprilthird2021 wrote:
           | Imagine if we had spent the money we gave to Israel for so
           | long on ourselves and bringing back jobs to the US...
        
       | bigfatkitten wrote:
       | To be read in conjunction with:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43228029
        
         | inverted_flag wrote:
         | And: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43250070
        
       | ellis0n wrote:
       | Hello from Ukraine and I need help.
       | 
       | The war in Ukraine has made it impossible to run my startup. Due
       | to unlimited attacks it has become impossible to focus on
       | anything other than the war. Of course, the war certainly needs
       | to be stopped, but no one really knows how to do it correctly and
       | I'm not sure anything good will come of it.
       | 
       | After 3 years of the war, my memory has started to deteriorate
       | and I've encountered issues with work and finances. It's hard to
       | understand how anyone can work during a war and who thought of
       | it, when the planning horizon is just until the next night and
       | then hell begins.
       | 
       | I fear that if U.S. military support stops and the war continues,
       | I will have to urgently move to a safer place.
       | 
       | I am urgently looking for financial help. I have extensive
       | experience in web3 and can work in this field, but only with
       | upfront payment and an immediate start, as my current situation
       | doesn't allow me to go through tiring technical interviews.
       | 
       | Here, I have created an open letter for companies and individuals
       | who may be interested in my project. Thanks for any feedback.
       | 
       | https://www.acpul.org/blog/Open-Letter
       | 
       | mail: web3future + protonmail % com
        
         | csomar wrote:
         | You are focusing on the wrong things. You need to leave
         | immediately (and take your family if you can). If you can't
         | leave the country try going nearby the Polish border.
        
           | ellis0n wrote:
           | I agree, it's better to be closer to the Polish border.
           | That's why I wrote that I need funds to be able to take any
           | action. The last time such a move cost me over $10k and I
           | also volunteered to help my family and others.
        
             | csomar wrote:
             | No such a move only costs a few hundred dollars at most and
             | maybe free if you are willing to rough it up with the truck
             | drivers. The situation can only be complicated by immediate
             | family members but still it's only a car rental or
             | convincing somebody with a car to drive you there.
        
               | ellis0n wrote:
               | And what's next? Sleep on the street? Rent is expensive,
               | I've already tried and it's impossible without any
               | income.
               | 
               | Sure, thanks for the advice, but I'll need to work, not
               | just travel. I need the same big monitor for work, a good
               | chair, and usually these things aren't available, so I
               | end up working in terrible conditions.
        
               | ty6853 wrote:
               | Ive been homeless, you will need a sleeping bag and tarp,
               | maybe a portable stove if you can afford it. Put them
               | into a backpack and stick out your thumb and leave. Sell
               | your computer shit for them.
               | 
               | No one wants to invest in a startup that might be blown
               | up tomorrow run by someone with active untreated PTSD.
               | This is blunt reality, you are now a day laborer --
               | construction factories and commercial sea fishing are the
               | main ways I've found out and up from homelessness, good
               | luck. Once you have some kind of shelter from that go
               | back to hustling on the side.
        
               | ellis0n wrote:
               | Thank you for sharing and I'm glad you got out of that
               | mess and recovered. That's good advice and I've been
               | through something similar myself a while ago. Back then,
               | I tried working in a taxi, but programming ended up
               | saving me. Now, if things keep going this way and AI
               | starts taking over IT jobs, it's quite possible I'll have
               | to work as a driver for Uber, where there aren't as many
               | AGI robots yet.
               | 
               | For now, I still wanted to focus on building startups and
               | developing humanity's economy, which is what I'm best at.
        
               | csomar wrote:
               | I am not saying it's a solution to your housing but a
               | solution not to get hurt or potentially "killed". I don't
               | have a solution to any of them. I am just saying if you
               | _really_ believe your life /safety is at risk, you should
               | move now regardless.
        
           | almosthere wrote:
           | i don't understand why people are telling people to leave
           | ukraine. if that's the stance, then why not just let russia
           | have it. If everyone left, then there's no war to be had?
        
             | Gud wrote:
             | Not everyone is fit to be a fighter.
        
               | csomar wrote:
               | It's easy to be a hero behind a keyboard.
        
           | StefanBatory wrote:
           | It's... not that easy. And if he fails at it, he risks a lot
           | - most likely getting thrown into army as a deserter and most
           | likely sent to the equivalent of penal units.
           | 
           | (EDIT: Unless they're a woman/nb, in which case yeah - please
           | try to do so because it will be way easier for you)
        
           | hnpolicestate wrote:
           | Can you imagine being down voted for trying to save his life?
           | Wealthy and fat SWE's want him to risk his life for virtue or
           | something.
        
         | aucisson_masque wrote:
         | If you're not willing to fight for your own country, why should
         | others die while you run away ?
        
       | xenospn wrote:
       | I suggest everyone visit the Baltics while you can. Because
       | they're obviously going to be next.
        
         | rdm_blackhole wrote:
         | I have trouble following the logic here.
         | 
         | Putin has not been able to conquer the whole of Ukraine after 3
         | years, but somehow, suddenly, he will be able to conquer all of
         | the Baltic states without breaking a sweat?
         | 
         | So which is it? Is the Russian army fighting with shovels or
         | are they a ferocious horde that is unstoppable? Those two
         | things cannot be true at the same time.
         | 
         | I am getting tired of people parroting this narrative. If Putin
         | could conquer Ukraine, he would have done so by now. Yet
         | according to you this means is able to conquer more countries
         | when his army can't even hold on to a full one.
         | 
         | No offense, but that makes zero sense.
        
           | timeon wrote:
           | Either way, if this continues, Americans will not be welcomed
           | there. So point about visit still stands.
        
           | GJim wrote:
           | > Putin has not been able to conquer the whole of Ukraine
           | after 3 years, but somehow, suddenly, he will be able to
           | conquer all of the Baltic states without breaking a sweat?
           | 
           | Putin will find it much easier to wage war in Europe if Trump
           | pulls out and takes the USA into isolationism (so abandoning
           | the western democracies).
           | 
           | And he will find it much easier to do this if he starts
           | before Europe has a chance to re-arm.
           | 
           | That is the logic you fail to see.
        
             | rdm_blackhole wrote:
             | > Putin will find it much easier to wage war in Europe if
             | Trump pulls out and takes the USA into isolationism (so
             | abandoning the western democracies). And he will find it
             | much easier to do this if he starts before Europe has a
             | chance to re-arm.
             | 
             | It still does not explain how he is supposed to do that
             | while he is bogged down in Ukraine.
             | 
             | You answer doe not provide any shred of evidence that is
             | what his plans are. You are just speculating.
             | 
             | Opening multiple fronts in a war when you are not making
             | progress does not make any sense. Putin is probably not the
             | sharpest tool in the shed but I am pretty sure that even he
             | knows that.
             | 
             | Finally, France and the UK both have nukes and are the
             | allies of the Baltic states so an attack is highly unlikely
             | unless the MAD doctrine is broken.
        
               | GJim wrote:
               | Nobody is going to wage a first strike nuclear war!
               | Nuclear powers and MAD are irrelevant. It is conventional
               | arms in Europe that are lacking, and Europe is re-arming
               | as rapidly as possible for such a defence.
               | 
               | One must have their head in the sand to think otherwise.
        
           | citrin_ru wrote:
           | The current situation is a stalemate. The US suddently
           | flipping sides will shift the balance and it's hard to
           | predict how far Trump will go in supporting Putin.
        
           | StefanBatory wrote:
           | Russians could invade and while it is most likely that after
           | a long war they'd be pushed back, they'd still leave ruins.
           | 
           | Also, we don't have unified army. So as painful as it is, it
           | is most likely Baltic states would have to fend of with their
           | military (and due to population, well, they can't - even if
           | they are bringing conscription back), maybe Poland and
           | Finland. Maybe. And then you'd have to coordinate what to do
           | next between all national militaries.
           | 
           | And what would stop a Frenchman or Portuguese to say _Why die
           | for Vilnius_?
           | 
           | :\
        
             | skeletal88 wrote:
             | Your data is wrong
             | 
             | Estonia has had conscription for our whole independence
             | from russia, and we don't intend to go back to russia.
             | Lithuania also has conscription and Latvia started it again
             | last year.
             | 
             | Estonia also has the Defence League, a voluntary
             | organisation which offers trainings and will support our
             | defence forces.
             | 
             | Finland and Poland also have conscription.
        
           | mrtesthah wrote:
           | > _Putin has not been able to conquer the whole of Ukraine
           | after 3 years..._
           | 
           | And with whose weapons and support do you think they managed
           | to do that? Not to mention the US had been helping to train
           | the Ukrainian army since 2014.
           | 
           | Anyone who has paid attention to the Ukraine war this far
           | already understands what past, present, and future assurances
           | of military support mean for deterrence.
           | 
           | Your comment suggests a level of ignorance or naivety either
           | on the part of the author or the reader.
        
             | rdm_blackhole wrote:
             | Your comment is exactly the kind of high-ended attitude
             | that is turning off people from having healthy debates with
             | other people who might disagree with them.
             | 
             | I am asking a legitimate question.
             | 
             | Your contention is that even though the war is at best a
             | stalemate and has revealed that Russia is at best a paper
             | tiger, we should now believe that somehow it has the
             | strength to invade all the Baltic states?
             | 
             | I am sorry to say but this is a fantasy that is not
             | supported by the facts of the situation that we have seen
             | in the last 3 years.
             | 
             | Now, you are free to disagree and that is fine but that
             | should not stop us to ask questions about these matters.
        
               | mrtesthah wrote:
               | > _I am asking a legitimate question._
               | 
               | At best your question was uninformed to the point that it
               | constitutes provocation, at worst it was deliberate
               | disinformation.
               | 
               | I'll repeat: Russia appears weak because the Ukrainians
               | have received so much military backing from the US and
               | the rest of Europe. It's a stalemate because others
               | stepped in to stop them.
               | 
               | And furthermore, Russia's rate of ammo production is
               | higher than Europe's, their army is larger than
               | Ukraine's, and their leaders have no limits on how many
               | people they throw into the meat grinder.
               | 
               | Regarding Putin's attempted restoration of the USSR, even
               | if they're unable to hold other Balkan countries, that
               | process will result in horrific bloodshed. The US
               | stepping away from defending NATO countries only
               | emboldens Russia to try.
               | 
               | If my attitude puts you off from dialog, then might I
               | politely suggest you educate yourself more on these
               | topics before engaging? You seem more than eager to jump
               | into dialog with others about this topic to push your
               | singular viewpoint, so I'm sure you can direct some of
               | that energy toward broadening your understanding of
               | recent world events.
        
               | rdm_blackhole wrote:
               | > If my attitude puts you off from dialog, then might I
               | politely suggest you educate yourself more on these
               | topics before engaging?
               | 
               | Here we go again with the condescending attitude.
               | 
               | > your singular viewpoint
               | 
               | I don't push a singular viewpoint. I asked a question
               | which other people have answered. Some people agreed and
               | others disagreed. Each to their own. This is how a
               | healthy debate works.
               | 
               | > At best your question was uninformed to the point that
               | it constitutes provocation, at worst it was deliberate
               | disinformation.
               | 
               | Asking a question about a major event and having a debate
               | with other people is now considered a provocation? May I
               | suggest you take a step back and rethink how you interact
               | with other people if you think truly that this is the
               | case.
               | 
               | Questioning things is good. Asking questions when we
               | don't know the answer about something should be
               | encouraged. That's how we learn and that is how we grow.
               | 
               | You have decided that you are right and that I am wrong.
               | That's your right but that shouldn't stop people from
               | asking questions that you deem to be provocative.
               | 
               | I have had many debates with plenty of people on this
               | forum, some heated debates even, but I can say that you
               | are definitely not someone I am interested in engaging
               | with anymore.
               | 
               | Goo day to you.
        
           | TrackerFF wrote:
           | Baltics could very well be on the menu, but it will not be
           | this year. Not next year. Not the year after that.
           | 
           | Right now, Russia needs to rebuild their military as much as
           | they can, and get their real economy back in shape.
           | 
           | My prediction is that IF Ukraine is being forced into a
           | shitty peace agreement, Russia will spend the next 3-4 years
           | rebuilding everything they can, and then when Trump has 6
           | months left, they'll go all-inn on Ukraine. Trump is
           | effectively in his lame duck period, no republicans want to
           | campaign on entering a huge war, and while democrats might
           | campaign on defending Ukraine - it will not be a popular
           | issue among regular voters.
           | 
           | Then, if Russia manages to do that, other countries will be
           | on the chopping block years later.
           | 
           | I simply do not believe Russia has the manpower, or political
           | backing to do a mobilization required to invade the Baltics.
           | Even if this would be the right moment to do it, with a
           | completely neutered USA.
        
             | RealityVoid wrote:
             | I agree, I just think the estimation is on the order of 2
             | years. But, yes, Putin might wait it a bit more in order to
             | see the maximum damage that Trump can do to the US. Same as
             | last time.
        
           | TiredOfLife wrote:
           | Ukraine is huge and had a large army. Baltic states are
           | small, have in total about the same amount of military as
           | russia loses in a month.
        
           | sireat wrote:
           | As someone living in the Baltics, most people here are fully
           | aware that when Putin chooses to attack we would have trouble
           | holding the mythical 72 hours for full NATO help to arrive.
           | 
           | If NATO help is not coming it is over quite quickly.
           | 
           | You have to remember that Ukraine has/had 40 million
           | population, Baltics has about 7 million.
           | 
           | We also do not have the miles of mined out defenses that
           | Ukraine has had since 2014.
           | 
           | We do have 2000 strong NATO brigades on rotation, a few
           | rotating F-35 from western Europe, some Himars I think.
           | 
           | If unthinkable happens and NATO chooses not to defend the
           | Baltics it is over.
        
             | RealityVoid wrote:
             | If it's any consolation, the buildup of the invasion
             | preceding the war in Ukraine was visible well before the
             | actual invasion, so probably EU would have time to act.
             | 
             | And, Russia would give you a breather of 1-2 years after
             | the fall of Ukraine in order to build up their stocks.
        
             | jajko wrote:
             | > We also do not have the miles of mined out defenses that
             | Ukraine has had since 2014.
             | 
             | I'd say you guys should have started building yesterday.
             | Like what the heck to wait for? This isn't some temporary
             | blip but permanent course of direction.
             | 
             | Want to avoid having thousands of sleeper agents with
             | double citizenship causing mayhem before invasion? Revoke
             | it all for dual citizens that won't revoke their russian
             | one, its time to pick side.
        
               | aaronbaugher wrote:
               | Ending dual citizenship is a great idea that needs to
               | catch on in the US too.
        
             | CapricornNoble wrote:
             | Look at your situation from a different perspective: the
             | Baltics have ~3 times the population of Gaza, and at the
             | very least something resembling air defenses. Gaza was
             | bombed into rubble but the governing body still exists. Or
             | you have roughly the same population as Lebanon, where
             | Hezbollah completely stymied the IDF ground offensive (they
             | wanted to force Hezbollah north of the Litani) even after
             | paralyzing Hezbollah C2 with the pager attack.
             | 
             | Why are the Baltics not fortified as well as Gaza? Why
             | haven't you spent the past 3 years mining the ever-living
             | fuck out of your border with Russia? Why can't 7 million
             | Baltic citizens hold your territory for 72 hours, when 7
             | million Lebanese are able to bog down the heavily-
             | mechanized IDF for weeks? Now I will admit that terrain is
             | a HUGE factor, but the seeming total unpreparedness of
             | Europeans to invest in the defense of their own homeland
             | communicates a ton to me....none of it positive.
        
           | regularjack wrote:
           | Ukraine has been able to fight back because of the aid it
           | got, that's why Russian's invasion wasn't a field trip.
        
           | layer8 wrote:
           | Russia hasn't been able to conquer Ukraine in three years
           | primarily due to US support. Now that US support is falling
           | away, Europe can only compensate for a minor portion of it.
           | One important part that Europe can't replace anytime soon is
           | military intelligence, including satellite reconnaissance,
           | but also advanced air defense systems and fighter jets. It
           | would or will take many years for Europe to be able to
           | provide anywhere near the previous level of US support.
        
             | ojl wrote:
             | So you believe Trump when he said that the US has given
             | more support than Europe? He was corrected several times
             | but continues saying it, and I see several comments about
             | it here as well. I agree about satellite reconnaissance and
             | such systems though. Several countries wants to give
             | fighter jets, and Sweden wanted to give Gripens but someone
             | convinced them to pause those plans.
        
               | layer8 wrote:
               | I was talking about technological, military, and
               | intelligence capabilities, not about financing. Regarding
               | support budgets, it does appear to me that Trump is
               | misrepresenting things, see for example this tracker:
               | https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/news/ukraine-
               | support-af... I nevertheless agree that Europe needs to
               | invest more both in their capabilities and in Ukraine
               | support.
               | 
               | However, I don't know how useful it is to compare it like
               | that 1:1. The problem with Trump is that apparently he
               | doesn't believe that the US has strong (or even any)
               | interests in containing Russia's imperialist drive and
               | geopolitical gains, and to the contrary is needlessly
               | giving up a lot of bargaining power to Russia.
               | 
               | Russia has zero interest in stopping the war, except to
               | their own conditions, which includes installing a Russia-
               | friendly government in Kiev (what they call
               | "denazification"). They have expressed that many times.
        
         | dmitrygr wrote:
         | I hear this a lot, but nobody can explain: why? What good are
         | they to Russia? Ukraine is obvious to anyone who's studied
         | history: as a buffer. What good are the Baltics to Russia, to
         | justify the military expense of capturing them?
        
           | mongol wrote:
           | They provide land access to Kaliningrad for once
        
       | amarcheschi wrote:
       | I know very well it's a drop in the ocean, you can donate to
       | ukraine here
       | 
       | https://u24.gov.ua/
       | 
       | You can decide how to allocate your donation, defense, demining,
       | humanitarian aid (...)
        
         | ponector wrote:
         | Also you can donate directly for the kamikaze drones here:
         | https://www.sternenkofund.org/donate
         | 
         | They are extremely effective in countering russian troops. One
         | drone costs as little as 500$
        
           | HPMOR wrote:
           | I know this is __so___ off topic, but the $ goes in front of
           | the value for USD. It should be $500. Again, again, I know
           | read the room, there's a tragic war going on, and the US is
           | becoming complicit in the tragedy. But if we don't have time
           | to be pedantic about monetary symbols then what good is the
           | freedom we still possess.
        
             | Suppafly wrote:
             | People are downvoting this, but I'm always suspicious of
             | comments online that imply they are from the US but mess up
             | simple details that no native US user would mess up.
        
               | dmos62 wrote:
               | If you're saying that someone is lying, you should be
               | more upfront. Who do you think it is?
        
               | kelnos wrote:
               | I dunno, a friend of mine does this, and she's a naive
               | born American (and so are her parents). English is her
               | only language. She knows it's "wrong", but just likes it
               | better.
        
               | BobaFloutist wrote:
               | Frankly, with both percents and dollars, we say "One-
               | hundred dollars/percent," so putting the symbol at the
               | front is counterintuitive to how we speak.
        
               | ponector wrote:
               | Special for you: one drone costs as little as 500EUR. But
               | you can donate even few dollars, everything counts. That
               | is the power of crowdfunding.
               | 
               | That guy by the link, Sternenko, supplied Ukrainian
               | forces with 100 000 drones in 2024.
        
               | gman83 wrote:
               | Where did they imply they were from the US? And why would
               | that be relevant here?
        
         | hulitu wrote:
         | Web server is down Error code 521 Visit cloudflare.com for more
         | information.
         | 
         | I just wanted to see if there is a section for peace and
         | reconstruction. /s
        
           | amarcheschi wrote:
           | At least for me it is working right now. Anyway, the full
           | sections are
           | 
           | Defense
           | 
           | Humanitarian aid
           | 
           | Medical aid
           | 
           | Rebuild ukraine
           | 
           | Education and science
        
         | defly wrote:
         | US-based fund: https://www.razomforukraine.org/
         | 
         | Top UA funds: https://savelife.in.ua/en/donate-en
         | https://prytulafoundation.org/en
         | 
         | UA tech community fund Kolo: https://www.koloua.com/en/
        
         | vonnik wrote:
         | I have been helping to send aid to the Ukrainian army for the
         | last 2.5 years through Ukraine Defense Fund:
         | 
         | https://ukrainedefensefund.org/
         | 
         | Profile of the founder in WIRED:
         | 
         | https://www.wired.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-military-reta...
        
         | harimau777 wrote:
         | Ukraine also still exports a surprising amount of stuff. For
         | example, my local liquor store carries Krol vodka which I
         | recommend. I also found an Etsy store with some awesome belt
         | buckles; particularly if you are into Celtic/Viking or punk
         | aesthetics: https://www.etsy.com/shop/Klamra
        
       | DidYaWipe wrote:
       | The USA stands in miserable disgrace.
        
         | bradhe wrote:
         | Amazing to see Russia win the Cold War--one we didn't even know
         | we were in. Their propaganda network is so strong that it took
         | 3 weeks to go from "Russia is the enemy" to "eh, we have other
         | problems" amongst the folks who...subscribe accordingly.
         | Absolute masterclass in projecting power in the digital age.
        
           | orbital-decay wrote:
           | Amazing to see posters still managing to blame an external
           | enemy for their own humongous trillion-dollar consent machine
           | working as designed in a direction they don't like this time.
        
           | tim333 wrote:
           | It looks quick but they've been cultivating Trump for 38
           | years now.
        
             | nprateem wrote:
             | They've probably got video of him being whipped by some
             | hookers or something. Or worse...
        
               | spiderfarmer wrote:
               | I think they have so much compromat that the entire GOO
               | would seize to exist.
        
               | kadoban wrote:
               | He had a decades-long, close friendship with Epstein, and
               | a documented, admitted history of vile behavior with
               | women and girls. You can guess what kompromat would look
               | like.
        
           | aemu wrote:
           | Yeah, man. I have emigrated from Russia to EU five years ago
           | and it is heartbreaking to see the developed US and some
           | European countries go through the same bullshit we were going
           | since 2011. Like half the country starts living in wild,
           | completely imaginary world, and you can always tell what is
           | the current agenda of the propaganda machine just by talking
           | to some relatives who fell through that rabbit hole
        
             | roxolotl wrote:
             | I agree it's a huge disgrace and half of the US is living
             | in a fantasy land. However polls show that Americans don't
             | like Putin. A poll two weeks ago[0] actually showed 81% of
             | Americans do not trust Putin. Finding 81% agreement about
             | anything is hard.
             | 
             | This is something that is unique to the administration and
             | those who deeply agree with what it's done.
             | 
             | Not that it matters... clearly people don't care enough to
             | vote for it. My heart goes out to the people of Ukraine.
             | 
             | 0: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5153611-quinnip
             | iac-...
        
               | justin66 wrote:
               | That poll in isolation means nothing. A person who "does
               | not trust Putin" but nevertheless subscribes to Russian
               | propaganda is still doing his work.
               | 
               | I see plenty of people in social media (enough to be
               | convinced that they aren't all bots) who appear to
               | believe that continuing to support Ukraine with aid would
               | bankrupt the US, would be equivalent in effect to
               | fighting Iraq or Vietnam again, would lead to WW III, and
               | so on and so forth. The conspiracy theories about
               | Ukraine's leadership are elaborate as well. I imagine
               | almost all these people would tell you they don't like
               | Putin.
        
               | ModernMech wrote:
               | Right. They don't Trust Putin but they trust Trump. If
               | Trump acts on Putin's agenda, they will vote for it and
               | call it smart.
        
               | xg15 wrote:
               | They might not even trust Trump, but being driven to hate
               | Biden and/or Harris so to vote against them was enough.
        
               | sangnoir wrote:
               | > However polls show that Americans don't like Putin.
               | 
               | Out of that 81%, how many believe in appeasing Putin to
               | "Avoid world war III" despite their animus? Too many,
               | IMO, and Putin doesn't care for how the American populace
               | feel about him personally, as long as he can achieve his
               | foreign policy goals without hindrance from American
               | bombs, intelligence or funding, which has become the
               | status quo as of yesterday.
        
             | orbital-decay wrote:
             | You're talking about domestic propaganda. The parent blames
             | _external_ propaganda, instead of doing something or at
             | least admitting that the domestic propaganda pipeline
             | backfired. It 's usually extremely hard to make people see
             | their own issues. It's always someone else, not them.
             | 
             | Yes, in Russia it happened largely in the same way, and it
             | started much earlier than in 2011 (in 2012 we already had
             | literal Putin cultists marching down the streets). Some
             | people blamed an external enemy for their troubles (both
             | troubles and the enemy were usually imaginary, with the
             | enemy usually being the US), others who rejected the idea
             | blamed the other half and generally had their heads in the
             | sand, but neither wanted to admit their issues or do
             | anything substantial, leaving the Kremlin do what they
             | wanted to do.
        
               | aemu wrote:
               | I agree mostly, but the mechanisms of domestic and
               | external propaganda are basically the same, it's just
               | that autocratic regimes have a "home field advantage"
               | domestically via repressions. And yes, it started before
               | 2011, but this is approximately the year when IMO the
               | tide really started to change for worse. Before that
               | there were some more or less free press and a semblance
               | of political discourse in the country, but since the peak
               | of election fraud protests it progressively got weaker,
               | and by now it feels like the "opposition" is completely
               | destroyed
        
             | xg15 wrote:
             | It's definitely been more than three weeks.
             | 
             | As someone who lives in the EU and has the same kind of
             | relatives, what I find frustrating is how little actual
             | engagement with the Russian narratives there is from
             | official sides. There is presented "evidence" for US
             | influence in Ukraine long before the war, like the Victoria
             | Nuland video, yet there seems to be no attempts at
             | debunking those arguments, short of a catch-all labeling of
             | all of it as disinformation (which, I can testify from
             | personal experience, does absolutely nothing to dissuade
             | people who already believe it).
             | 
             | The Selinskyji/Trump spat felt like an extreme version of
             | this, where Selinskyji essentially argued with the
             | Western/Ukrainian narrative of the war and Trump argued
             | with the Russian narrative.
             | 
             | The strategy of "ignore the Russian narrative and hope not
             | many people will latch on to it" evidently failed, so I
             | think if we want to have a hope of solving this conflict
             | and countering Trump (and maybe get back the parts of the
             | population that follow the narrative), we at least have to
             | engage with it and provide counterarguments.
        
               | generic92034 wrote:
               | Countering pushed narratives with facts and arguments is
               | a complete failure. It does not reach the emotional core,
               | which is "us versus them".
        
               | xg15 wrote:
               | OK, but how then?
        
               | jopsen wrote:
               | Wasn't that what we the west did during the cold war?
               | 
               | Is it not just that media is more fragmented and we've
               | underfunded the fact providing media since?
        
               | JoshuaDavid wrote:
               | Twitter community notes are popular and pretty effective
               | at calling out misleading information that has gone viral
               | (organically or inorganically). I think writing off facts
               | and arguments is premature.
        
               | blargey wrote:
               | Is that sort of stuff actually effective against
               | propaganda though?
               | 
               | I'd assume that by the time a disclaimer is written up,
               | submitted, and accepted according to whatever the
               | criteria is, the original un-disclaimered message has
               | been received and digested by its target audience.
        
               | ryandrake wrote:
               | Plus, the propaganda also strongly paints fact checking
               | as a mere ploy by other_team to try to cheat and win. So
               | even if the community notes get to them, they will chalk
               | it up to "liberals trying to hide the real truth."
        
               | JoshuaDavid wrote:
               | There are a few things working in favor of community
               | notes there
               | 
               | 1. Viral tweets have a longer-than-average time window
               | between the time they start to go viral and the time the
               | median viewer sees them, so a community note can get
               | there before the median viewer. 2. Users who interacted
               | with a tweet before it got a community note will get a
               | notification when the community note is added. 3.
               | Community note writers can leave a note on a piece of
               | media. If a tweet with a video gets a community note, and
               | that note is about the video rather than about the tweet,
               | that note will show on all other tweets that show that
               | video.
               | 
               | Source: this excellent interview with the Community Notes
               | team (https://asteriskmag.com/issues/08/the-making-of-
               | community-no...), in the section that starts with
               | "Asterisk: Another thing I wanted to talk about is
               | speed". Really that whole interview is great, highlights
               | how deliberate and thoughtful the Community Notes team
               | was regarding everything about the feature. Which is, I
               | think, why community notes have succeeded where a lot of
               | previous fact-checking attempts have failed.
        
           | tonyhart7 wrote:
           | US spends trillion in vietname,iraq,afghan etc while people
           | can't afford housing,healthcare and living paycheck to
           | paycheck
           | 
           | its hard to care for other people when your basic needs is
           | not fullfill
        
             | FirmwareBurner wrote:
             | Thank you. This is what people with privilege don't get.
             | 
             | There are concentric circles of giving a fuck: first in the
             | center is yourself, then your family, then your friends,
             | then your community, then your city, then your country,
             | then other countries on the planet.
             | 
             | It's impossible to get people to care about the outermost
             | circle when their inner circles are not satisfied, so they
             | won't be happy to see their elected officials being
             | generous to foreigners with their own tax money.
        
               | rayiner wrote:
               | It's not even about "basic needs." How much support is
               | there in fat and happy Europe for putting boots on the
               | ground? It sounds like UK and France would go it alone?
               | https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/03/04/which-
               | european...
               | 
               | And it's not lost on me that both Starmer and Macron
               | represent a minority of the electorate in their
               | respective countries--having won due to a deeply
               | fractured electorate.
        
               | sham1 wrote:
               | Well, it seems that at least according to the article,
               | Finland, Scandinavia, the Baltics, Poland etc. weren't
               | even asked for our opinions.
               | 
               | Unfortunately typical that we just get ignored here in
               | the eastern flank. One can only hope that we weren't
               | mentioned because it's obvious that we'd back these
               | operations, since an ascended Russia is an existential
               | threat to everyone here, but alas.
               | 
               | Of course there are ideas like the one from President
               | Stubb, wherein any peace treaty could be dive such that a
               | future attack on Ukraine by Russia world mean Ukraine's
               | automatic ascension to NATO (and/or the EU, depending on
               | just how far America is willing to backstab its allies)
               | and basically having the organisation(s) guarantee
               | Ukraine's independence. Although that would require
               | taking northern and eastern Europeans seriously, and I'm
               | somehow not convinced of that happening.
               | 
               | But yeah, hopefully they get the peacekeepers at the very
               | least.
        
               | dredds wrote:
               | It occurred to me that backstabbing is a common tactic of
               | war historically, and increasingly of a certain group of
               | power-seeking individuals specifically. A trait that The
               | Apprentice and it's similar ilk of reality TV shows like
               | Survivor invariably promoted.
               | 
               | My comment today on a YT video;
               | 
               | "Trump never apologizes or shows contrition (Roy Cohn's
               | 'always deny' doctrine) as it shows weakness, similar to
               | Putin perceiving appeasement as weakness. He then sets up
               | a scenario (he called it "great television") where he
               | expects Zelenskyy to apologize and say thankyou for the
               | 100th time. He told Zelenskyy he had no cards, so
               | apologizing or showing appreciation-on-demand (for
               | nothing in exchange) would be submitting to being a loser
               | in Trump's own mindset, which is the point of the whole
               | fake deal on offer. No different to the "deal" he made
               | with Afghan government for natural resources, before he
               | sided with the Taliban to withdraw US troops in betrayal
               | of that very agreement. When Zelenskyy pointed out that
               | Putin can't be trusted for any ceasefire, Trump then
               | raised his voice cos his own betrayals (nearly everyone
               | who worked for him that wasn't paid, or went to prison by
               | following instructions, or was summarily fired as per his
               | catchphrase) are viewed as his favorite playing card."
               | 
               | Treachery has been his default modus operandi throughout
               | his personal life (cheating and divorce) as well as in
               | business and politics ("hang Mike Pence"). Reality TV
               | then normalized it to the level of mass-entertainment as
               | he suggested.
        
               | crazygringo wrote:
               | Yet somehow the US is continuing to send tons of
               | expensive military aid to Israel.
               | 
               | Which shows this isn't actually about the cost.
               | 
               | If this had anything to do with money and caring about
               | domestic spending first, then you'd see aid to Israel cut
               | off as well. Funny how that's not happening.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | _> Yet somehow the US is continuing to send tons of
               | expensive military aid to Israel. _
               | 
               | Yeah, why is that?
        
               | nervousvarun wrote:
               | https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus?ind=Q05
        
               | actionfromafar wrote:
               | Caveat: in the Republican US those concentric circles
               | _begin_ if you make $360k or more.
        
               | kgwxd wrote:
               | Then why did they vote against themselves, family,
               | friends, community, city, country, and other countries?
               | Uneducated people make uneducated votes. Privileged
               | people get it, they just want you to be more educated,
               | but you keep voting against that too.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | Regular blue collar working class people from less
               | developed areas don't want to be lectured by privileged
               | big-city people that they're uneducated and only they
               | know better than them what the correct candidate to vote
               | for is.
               | 
               | That patronizing attitude you showed is exactly the one
               | the Democrats had and is exactly what got Trump elected.
               | Until their attitude changes they will keep losing votes
               | out of sheer spite.
        
               | 542354234235 wrote:
               | >why did they vote against themselves
               | 
               | >they will keep losing votes out of sheer spite
               | 
               | Well, I guess that is the answer. You may not look good
               | without a nose, but you sure taught your face a lesson.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | Who's the face in this context? The only ones I see
               | constantly screeching about Trump are Democrat voters,
               | not Trump voters.
        
               | kelnos wrote:
               | Only time will tell if those Trump voters end up being ok
               | with the inevitable cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and
               | Social Security. If that comes to pass, I expect some
               | bipartisan screeching.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | Poor people and working class were gonna be fucked either
               | way no matter the candidate that won, because while
               | America has 2 political parties, it only has one economic
               | party which caters to the wealthy established elite. Do
               | you think Kamala would have done anything more for the
               | poor in practice?
               | 
               | The only savior of the poor and vulnerable would have
               | been Bernie Sanders, that's why the democrats have
               | avoided nominating him, because he's a man of the people,
               | not the man of established corporate interests.
               | 
               | So given two bad options, the poor and working class have
               | picked the candidate not insulting and patronizing them
               | based on gender, race and identity politics, while also
               | being able to form a coherent sentence[1]. Democrats are
               | so high on their own self-righteous elitist farts, they
               | still don't realize why the majority of people hate them.
               | 
               | [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yS0yBgZrVas
        
             | therealpygon wrote:
             | Only those who are incapable of reasoning would think that
             | will change by electing the people who defend corporations
             | abilities to underpay, overcharge for healthcare, and to
             | not pay taxes.
        
             | dashtiarian wrote:
             | The reason people are living paycheck to paycheck is not
             | because of military aids, the system is not going to spend
             | saved money on people, and people will be the ones fighting
             | the incoming wars.
             | 
             | You need unions and Universal Healthcare like the rest of
             | the developed world to fix those problems.
        
             | Aunche wrote:
             | The reason Americans can't afford healthcare or housing
             | isn't because we spend 3.4% of our GDP on military
             | spending, but decades of terrible policy. Americans have
             | the second highest disposal income in the world, only
             | behind a tiny tax haven. And before anyone mentions it, it
             | measures the median, is PPP adjusted, and takes into
             | account social services.
        
             | walls wrote:
             | Yet we're still sending truck loads of money and gear to
             | Israel.
             | 
             | This is purely about Trump helping Putin.
        
               | programmarchy wrote:
               | One explanation would be an agreement with Putin
               | softening support for Iran in exchange for US softening
               | support for Ukraine.
        
               | jopsen wrote:
               | Lol, Russia has long sold Iran whatever it wants in
               | exchange for drones.
        
               | yubblegum wrote:
               | "lol" is not evidence. There is no evidence IRI is
               | getting anything from RF.
               | 
               | Khamenei studied as a student in USSR prior to the
               | revolution. He is likely a Russian asset. Nothing else
               | can explain the decisions of that "ayatollah". The other
               | day an Isreali news site reported Iran is not on the list
               | of invitees to the May 9 goose stepping show in Moscow.
               | (Israel is invited). IRI got sanctioned for giving drones
               | to RF and now Russia will get off the list while IRI
               | sanctions remain. Russia supports UAE regarding their bs
               | claims on 3 strategic micro-islands in the Persian Gulf.
               | The fabled S-400 have never ever been offered to IRI, and
               | IRI previously had to sue (yes) Russia to finally get the
               | S-300s that they had long ago paid for, which then
               | promptly got bombed by Israel. The list goes on and on ..
               | 
               | "Back to school now" for Ali Khamenei - I bet you didn't
               | know this. In fact curious as to where you even get
               | actual news about IRI if you don't speak Persian ...
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN_oEJEp9Ro [1:38 ..]
        
               | programmarchy wrote:
               | Right, and if US made a deal with Russia to cease their
               | support for Iran, then they become much more vulnerable
               | to an attack by Israel and US.
        
             | rapind wrote:
             | Good news! If you make more than $320,000 / year you'll
             | benefit from a couple trillion dollars in tax cuts! That'll
             | fix everything once it "trickles down"! Thank god we live
             | in an era when we get to witness this genius in action.
             | 
             | Nevermind that the reason Ukraine can't defend itself is
             | because the US guaranteed their security in exchange for
             | them giving up their nukes. I mean, that was so 30 years
             | ago.
        
             | exe34 wrote:
             | sounds like you need more tax cuts for the rich and wait
             | for it to trickle down.
        
             | _trampeltier wrote:
             | You know the UK paid money since WW2 until 2006 to the US.
             | 
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-American_loan
        
           | ModernMech wrote:
           | Some of us knew we were in this information war, and we've
           | been fighting it for 10 years. Remember in 2016 when Trump
           | colluded with Russia to with that election? And everyone who
           | knew what was going on at the time said Trump and Putin were
           | allies? Those people were mocked incessantly for a decade.
           | Authors like Seth Abramson predicted what's happening now
           | years ago, just by treating the facts seriously, and for that
           | he was treated like a crazy person.
           | 
           | I mean, they were caught meeting with a Russian spy in their
           | campaign HQ, told us they got most of their money from
           | Russia, and then told us for 10 years _we_ were being crazy
           | conspiracy theorists by claiming they were aligned with
           | Russia. It 's not a hard puzzle if you have the pieces.
           | 
           | So hearing today that "this is such a surprise" is especially
           | frustrating, because this has been the topic of congressional
           | reports written by Republican , impeachment trials, DOJ
           | reports, reports from federal agencies, warnings from the
           | FBI, CIA, and also international intelligence agencies.
           | People like Christopher Steele correctly called this a decade
           | ago and he was demonized. Australia brought it to the
           | attention of the FBI.
           | 
           | Like... people knew this was happening, and warned, and not
           | just nobodies like people on the Internet. What happened over
           | the last 10 years is that Russia won the information war, and
           | the general public decided to trust Russian state media over
           | Democrats when it came to Trump's support of Russia. Which, I
           | think at long last we can all admit this is the case without
           | calling anyone a conspiracy theorist yeah?
        
           | bamboozled wrote:
           | I'm not going to be surprised to read he plans on sending
           | weapons to Russia in the near future. I'm also not going to
           | be surprised when the cult cheers it on as well. Russia has
           | done a great job, good for them I guess?
        
             | ryandrake wrote:
             | His cult justifies and allows him to do anything he wants.
             | He could go on TV tomorrow and announce that the US and
             | Russia are merging into one country, and his followers will
             | get right to work spinning how this is actually good, and
             | it's really a 5D chess move, and a genius tactic, and how
             | smart this is for the USA. They (and he) are all incapable
             | of admitting anything he does is wrong.
        
           | belter wrote:
           | "We will take America without firing a shot. We do not have
           | to invade the U.S. We will destroy you from within"
           | - Nikita Khrushchev
        
         | jisnsm wrote:
         | I can imagine the very same thing being said if the USA had
         | pulled out of the War on Terror. B-but they have WMD! The NYT
         | said so!
        
           | herculity275 wrote:
           | It really sucks that "Saddam has WMDs" broke an entire
           | generation of Americans into knee-jerk contrarianism
           | regarding any global conflict US is involved in. What's the
           | "WMD" equivalent here - what do you think the media is lying
           | to you about? That there's an ongoing Russian invasion of
           | Ukraine is something all involved parties acknowledge.
        
             | kamaal wrote:
             | _once bitten, twice shy_
             | 
             | https://www.merriam-
             | webster.com/dictionary/once%20bitten%2C%...
        
             | kelipso wrote:
             | There is absolutely no requirement that the US has to get
             | involved in every regional conflict in the world. Let the
             | Ukrainians and Russians deal with their mess. There are
             | plenty of other regional conflicts we ignore.
        
               | smac__ wrote:
               | The USA was part of the Budapest Memorandum. This is a
               | pretty strong reason for the USA to provide support for
               | Ukraine.
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum
        
               | kelipso wrote:
               | It's a reason but it's not a strong reason. Back then
               | Ukraine was indistinguishable from Russia, basically a
               | small breakaway country from the USSR. So the intent was
               | more likely that the US wouldn't attack Ukraine. Besides
               | which, the nukes in Ukraine were never under Ukraine's
               | control or possession, so the agreement looks to be more
               | for optics than anything.
        
               | libertine wrote:
               | It's just the US word signed in an agreement. Meaning the
               | US word is now of the same value of Russia.
               | 
               | Saying Ukraine is a "small breakaway country from the
               | USSR", while being the largest country in Europe is one
               | of the most detached takes I've seen on this subject lmao
               | 
               | You clearly have no idea what you're talking about.
        
               | s1artibartfast wrote:
               | The Budapest Memorandum says the US wont invade Ukraine.
               | It is easy to do that from home.
        
               | sethammons wrote:
               | from the wiki, 4th point in the agreement:
               | 
               | > Seek immediate Security Council action to provide
               | assistance to the signatory if they "should become a
               | victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat
               | of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
               | 
               | Ukraine was the victim of an act of aggression from
               | Russia. Pretty obvious that the US gave its word it would
               | protect them.
        
               | s1artibartfast wrote:
               | How do you get that. The US sought security council
               | action within days of the war starting.
               | 
               | Nowhere does it say us has to guarantee safety or go to
               | war. Nevermind the fact that threats of nuclear
               | aggression came much later.
        
               | foldr wrote:
               | You really think that this conflict has no repercussions
               | or implications for US interests?
        
               | kelipso wrote:
               | No, if the US considers it be a regional conflict, then
               | that's all it will be in terms of repercussions or
               | interests. Maybe in terms of vague geopolitical concerns
               | that might be relevant decades from now, though even that
               | is unclear, but the US is too powerful to have
               | repercussions from not being involved in this conflict.
        
               | foldr wrote:
               | China and other countries don't see it that way. They are
               | looking for signals as to what they might be able to get
               | away with, now that the US has decided that it chose the
               | wrong team during the Cold War.
        
               | DidYaWipe wrote:
               | If China seizes Taiwan, we're going to do exactly squat
               | about it. The best thing the USA can do in regard to that
               | situation is stay quiet, and let the status remain
               | unchanged without goading China into doing something to
               | save face.
               | 
               | And that means no more moronic field trips by
               | grandstanding senators.
        
               | hulitu wrote:
               | > There is absolutely no requirement that the US has to
               | get involved in every regional conflict in the world
               | 
               | It is not a requirement, it's the implementation. There
               | is a good reason why the USA was called "world
               | policeman".
        
               | anonfordays wrote:
               | >There is a good reason why the USA was called "world
               | policeman".
               | 
               | And Europeans and leftist shit talked the US for it for
               | decades. They called for the US to close military bases
               | around the world, shit talked the amount the US spends on
               | defense, etc.
               | 
               | Now that the US is packing up and going home, the same
               | people are screaming for the US to stay and continue
               | being the exact thing they shit talked the US for. What a
               | spectacle.
        
               | justin66 wrote:
               | > Now that the US is packing up and going home, the same
               | people are screaming for the US to stay and continue
               | being the exact thing they shit talked the US for. What a
               | spectacle.
               | 
               | On the contrary, Russian tanks rolling into Eastern
               | Europe is something many people on the left and right in
               | the United States have always taken seriously, and judged
               | to be worthy of the US's intervention, even if they
               | judged some of our other interventions to be bullshit.
               | The strange part - the real change - is that there are
               | people now who do not.
        
               | HDThoreaun wrote:
               | Right, the leftists are idiots. Now everyone is going to
               | start a nuclear program and the world will become much
               | less safe.
        
               | throw919232156 wrote:
               | The US provoked the war, the US can finish the war. It is
               | that simple.
               | 
               | Don't dump your wars and middle eastern refugees on the
               | EU. What if the EU started a war in Mexico, drove 40
               | million refugees to the US, then left and let the US
               | clean up the mess?
        
               | _DeadFred_ wrote:
               | Heck yeah bro, we're owning the Europeans! What a win for
               | the USA! Love basing our geopolitical policy, and
               | breaking our honor in keeping commitments on that. So
               | much winning.
        
               | anonfordays wrote:
               | >Heck yeah bro, we're owning the Europeans!
               | 
               | Not at all, we're just giving them what they've asked for
               | for decades.
               | 
               | >What a win for the USA!
               | 
               | What a win for the EU! The militaristic "world police"
               | oppressors are leaving!
               | 
               | >Love basing our geopolitical policy, and breaking our
               | honor in keeping commitments on that.
               | 
               | We're being honorable by finally giving Europeans what
               | they've asked for.
               | 
               | So much losing!
        
               | arandomusername wrote:
               | USA has not made commitments to defend Ukraine. They have
               | not broken their comittments in defending countries they
               | promised to, e.g NATO
        
               | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
               | The US didn't end up in this position by fluke. It was a
               | deliberate policy reaction to the nuclear weapons age. If
               | you don't want everyone from Croatia to Canada equipping
               | themselves with nuclear weapons and starting border
               | skirmishes over water rights, the states that maintain a
               | nuclear arsenal and international network of military
               | bases have to step up and enforce the rules.
               | 
               | And yes, the invasion of Iraq on a paper thin pretext
               | arguably was the beginning of the collapse of this
               | equilibrium, and it's no surprise that North Korea
               | reacted by doubling down on their nuclear program.
               | 
               | With great power comes great responsibility. For
               | generations, Americans preferred having a monopoly on
               | geopolitical power. The USA can certainly give up its
               | great responsibility, but beware the consequences,
               | because the global calculus changes accordingly.
        
               | honkycat wrote:
               | The Russians are stealing their rare and valuable
               | resources so they can gouge our long term allies.
               | 
               | Trillions of dollars in essential rare earth materials
               | and natural gas isn't worth fighting for? Then why EVER
               | go to war?
        
               | jopsen wrote:
               | True, but rarely do you get an opportunity to wear down a
               | principal enemy by donating equipment to a democratic
               | nation defending itself.
               | 
               | Without any requirements that the US puts boots on the
               | ground.
               | 
               | It's in the interest of most countries that borders are
               | immutable and that aggressors are made to pay.
        
             | s1artibartfast wrote:
             | I think the "wmd equivalent" is the idea that Russia will
             | move on Berlin if they're not contained in Ukraine.
             | 
             | I think the idea that the Budapest memorandum is a US
             | security guarantee here's another comparable lie.
        
               | _DeadFred_ wrote:
               | Unlike the wmd lie which was generated completely by the
               | USA, all of Europe seems pretty concerned to the point
               | they just approved another 650 billion in debt TODAY,
               | something Europe REFUSED to do for what 40 years?
               | 
               | Because X happened in the past does not mean that Y is X.
               | Only people reaching hard to push an agenda would claim
               | any similarity.
        
               | s1artibartfast wrote:
               | I think both are similar in that they obfuscate real
               | discussion on the purpose of war and tradeoffs.
               | 
               | If the goal is to be global police, that is a
               | conversation worth having. Same if the goal is to show
               | solidarity with our EU allies for its own sake. I think
               | these other topics are manufactured consent.
        
               | _DeadFred_ wrote:
               | This you?
               | 
               | "I think the "wmd equivalent" is the idea that Russia
               | will move on Berlin if they're not contained in Ukraine."
               | 
               | Because now all of the sudden you are saying something
               | totally different and nebulous 'world police' BS.
               | 
               | Why are your trying to equate Europe dramatically and
               | instantly shifting their spending and EU policy to some
               | nebulous 'global police' comment instead of addressing
               | your original point, that you state no one actually
               | believes 'Russia moving on Europe' is a real thing, and
               | trying to equate it to the WMD lie?
               | 
               | You original point is BS, Europe believes to the tune of
               | 650 billion just committed and breaking all of their long
               | standing norms when it comes to defense that it is a real
               | issue. Hense you having to move to some nebulous 'world
               | police' nonsense.
        
               | s1artibartfast wrote:
               | I am asking what the core purpose and rationale for USA
               | involvement is, and saying that this should be the center
               | of discussion, whatever it is. It seems like nobody can
               | agree or articulate what this is in a coherent way.
               | 
               | Everything else is a sideshow and distraction.
               | 
               | I don't see how Europe spending 650 billion answers this
               | question either. The US spending money because Europe is
               | with no deeper logic elementary school thought.
        
               | _DeadFred_ wrote:
               | You really can't back your original statement can you?
               | You made a specific claim:
               | 
               | "I think the "wmd equivalent" is the idea that Russia
               | will move on Berlin if they're not contained in Ukraine."
               | 
               | Ie, that Russia being a threat to Europe is a convenient
               | lie used to manipulate actions, and Russia isn't a
               | threat.
               | 
               | Europe spending 650 billion and upsetting their long
               | standing defense posture (especially Germany's post WW2
               | one) shows they didn't/don't view/weren't using the
               | threat Russia poses as a lie to manipulate the USA into
               | being 'World Police' and they are up ending their entire
               | order to defend against Russia (actions with ZERO 'world
               | policing' upside for them).
               | 
               | You tried to downplay Russia as a threat using a
               | comparison to the WMD lie to lend false strength to your
               | position that Russia is not a threat and you failed so
               | miserably you completely pivoted from it.
               | 
               | Edit: News is now reporting that Germany is literally
               | changing their constitution because they don't believe
               | your position that Russia's threat to Europe is a lie.
        
             | potato3732842 wrote:
             | All the WMDs did was disgrace the media
             | 
             | It was the half dozen other adventures in the sandbox with
             | nothing to show for it that made people put down their foot
             | and say no more and stick to it even when it's a cause they
             | may support (Ukraine for some, Israel for others). That's
             | how fed up with it the American public is.
        
               | DidYaWipe wrote:
               | But wait... you don't dare suggest that we stop propping
               | up Israel's apartheid regime and occupation of other
               | people's land!
        
             | thomassmith65 wrote:
             | The best explanation for people who obsess over 'Saddam has
             | WMDs' is that they were gullible enough, at the time, to
             | believe it.
             | 
             | On a related note, a lot of the morons who gave GWB a
             | second term seem to be populists now. They would be more
             | helpful to America if they stopped trying to understand the
             | world around them, and instead just voluntarily stopped
             | voting.
        
           | unethical_ban wrote:
           | Rarely do I see a commenter who blames Ukraine for the war,
           | explain their position or elaborate on what the next 5-10
           | years of geopolitics will look like.
        
         | yubblegum wrote:
         | The PTB in US have decided to divy up the world into zones.
         | This was likely already set in motion when the Brexit thing
         | started in UK. "We want Canada, American Gulf, Panama Canal" is
         | Monroe Doctrine 2.0 on steroids. UK is likely going to be in
         | the 'Oceania' camp (as will be the rest of the Common Wealth)
         | and we can all look forward to a 1984 future living under
         | authoritarian regimes using "AI" and pervasive surveillance.
         | The rest is smoke for plebes.
        
         | gershy wrote:
         | I'm not sure what to think. Ukraine can't militarily defeat
         | russia or reclaim its lost territory, and as long as it
         | continues to try to do so, there will be war and the world will
         | be less stable. But if a line is not drawn against russia, I
         | think we have every reason to believe putin will continue to
         | conquer more land over time.
         | 
         | Russia is the source of instability, but it can't be defeated
         | or reasoned with. What to do?
        
           | KittenInABox wrote:
           | I guarantee you that Russia could've been reasoned with if it
           | was forced to face Ukraine with the full might of US support
           | for another 4 years. Maybe there would need to be some
           | concessions so Putin can look like he came out with a win to
           | the Russian media, but Putin wouldn't have kept going as he
           | was.
        
             | gedy wrote:
             | > with the full might of US support
             | 
             | Wasn't the time for that 3 years ago (or 11)? I'm not pro
             | Russia, but a war of attrition has always seemed a bad play
             | and half-assed. Especially when Europe is still buying gas
             | from Russia...
        
           | michpoch wrote:
           | > Ukraine can't militarily defeat russia or reclaim its lost
           | territory,
           | 
           | Allow for long-distance strikes, allow for usage of Starlink
           | without gps limits, send modern equipment. Russian army is
           | barely moving forward even though UA has one of its arm tied
           | on the back.
        
           | codedokode wrote:
           | In theory West could offer something in exchange for peace,
           | so that Russia will not want to break it, for example:
           | withdrawing NATO forces from Eastern Europe, withdrawing
           | nuclear weapon from Europe, lifting sanctions, paying a
           | compensation for losses due to sanctions etc. There is
           | actually a whole spectrum of options for negotiations.
        
             | impossiblefork wrote:
             | All these suggestions seem comically unsound.
             | 
             | Eastern Europe contains many NATO countries, and many
             | European countries feel an increased rather than decreased
             | need for nuclear weapons. Compensation for losses due to
             | sanctions would also effectively legitimize the war, as if
             | though Russia were in the right.
             | 
             | Lifting sanctions could maybe be done, if Russia actually
             | left Ukraine entirely, including Crimea.
             | 
             | I think what's really interesting at the moment, at least
             | to me as a European, is a proper war where we simply go in
             | and pound the Russian positions in Ukraine with bombers,
             | strike all sorts of factories, plants, gas conduits,
             | electrical infrastructure etc., in Russia so as to ensure a
             | reasonable outcome.
             | 
             | This is a very large and difficult to defend country,
             | relative to its population. The Russians are incredibly
             | vulnerable and increasing the violence level to something
             | more appropriate is the going to be the only alternative.
             | 
             | We're planning to borrow money to get weapons. This will be
             | interesting, considering today's interest rates. I think it
             | might be we who must be given something that we can agree
             | is some kind of 'win', rather than the Russians, if the
             | world is to be orderly.
        
             | KiwiJohnno wrote:
             | The problem is any of those things are effectively a reward
             | for Russia for starting the war and invading Ukraine in the
             | first place. Why should Russia get any advantage out of the
             | war that they 100% started?? And pay them compensation!
             | What a suggestion!
             | 
             | Russia is a bully. What do you think will happen if we have
             | to pay the bully off each time they start smashing up their
             | neighbors stuff up or just making threats?
             | 
             | And as for withdrawing NATO forces - NATO is a purely
             | defensive organization. Its purpose is to defend against
             | just the sort of shit Russia has pulled with Ukraine. If
             | Ukraine was part of NATO the war would not have happened.
             | 
             | NATO is not a threat to Russia. Never has been, never will
             | be. This is equivalent to a local crime lord complaining
             | about being threatened by the police station down the road
             | and demanding that the police station shuts down.
        
               | codedokode wrote:
               | > NATO is a purely defensive organization
               | 
               | Are nuclear missiles located in Europe and pointed to the
               | East also "purely defensive" weapon? It doesn't help good
               | relations when you have a gun pointed at your face.
        
             | thiht wrote:
             | Sounds like your strategy is giving Russia all they want so
             | that they can prepare for the next attack in a few years.
             | If you're on Russia's side I guess it makes sense
        
           | motorest wrote:
           | > I'm not sure what to think. Ukraine can't militarily defeat
           | russia or reclaim its lost territory, (...)
           | 
           | Are you sure about that? I mean, didn't Afghanistan forced
           | Russia to retreat in defeat and leave the country?
           | 
           | > and as long as it continues to try to do so, there will be
           | war and the world will be less stable.
           | 
           | All the more reason to help Ukraine finish the job and force
           | Russia to leave.
           | 
           | Ultimately, worst case scenario Ukraine can simply keep
           | Russian in a war of attrition while eating away at it's
           | economic base.
           | 
           | Russia is already sending it's soldiers with crutches riding
           | donkeys into battle. They are scraping the bottom of the
           | barrel for resources.
           | 
           | > But if a line is not drawn against russia, I think we have
           | every reason to believe putin will continue to conquer more
           | land over time.
        
             | arandomusername wrote:
             | > Are you sure about that? I mean, didn't Afghanistan
             | forced Russia to retreat in defeat and leave the country?
             | 
             | Logistics (Ukraine shares a large border with Russia) and
             | people - the people in currently occupied Ukraine aren't as
             | against Russia as those in Afghanistan may be. Even now, we
             | don't really see much of sabotage.
             | 
             | > All the more reason to help Ukraine finish the job and
             | force Russia to leave.
             | 
             | And how are you going to do that? Russia has been gaining
             | land. Currently, Russia is winning.
             | 
             | > Ultimately, worst case scenario Ukraine can simply keep
             | Russian in a war of attrition while eating away at it's
             | economic base.
             | 
             | While losing hundred of thousands of young men and
             | decimating their population. Russia has more men. They can
             | stand a war of attrition a lot longer - and they value
             | soldier's lives less than we do in the west.
             | 
             | > Russia is already sending it's soldiers with crutches
             | riding donkeys into battle. They are scraping the bottom of
             | the barrel for resources.
             | 
             | Similarly, Ukraine is kidnapping people on the streets to
             | send them to the front lines.
        
             | codedokode wrote:
             | > sending it's soldiers with crutches riding donkeys
             | 
             | What would you use to transport items through the forest
             | for example?
        
           | audunw wrote:
           | Of course they can defeat Russia, if they're tenacious
           | enough. Just look at Afghanistan (against both Russia and
           | USA). If the costs ends up being too high, eventually the
           | attacker loses the will to continue the fight.
           | 
           | Russia is running out of equipment. What they have left is in
           | an increasingly bad state. Ukraine's recent strategy of
           | targeting refineries is working fairly well.
           | 
           | Ukraine now has domestic laser weapons for taking down
           | Russian drones.
        
             | engineer_22 wrote:
             | > Ukraine now has domestic laser weapons for taking down
             | Russian drones
             | 
             | Source?
        
             | codedokode wrote:
             | Afghanistan is an awful example because there was a large
             | number of civilians dead as a result (many times more that
             | foreign soldiers), country having to live through several
             | devastating wars, poverty, and a terrorist group became the
             | government in the end. This was much worse thing than what
             | is happening in Ukraine.
        
           | kranke155 wrote:
           | It can be (locally) defeated. You can defeat it in wars of
           | choosing, not in a war of annihilation (as Napoleon and
           | others have learnt).
           | 
           | But in Crimea? Or the Russo-Japanese War? Or WW1? Whenever
           | the stakes are less than existential, superpowers lose.
           | 
           | Saying Russia can't lose is just defeatism. With a few dozen
           | F35s and better capabilities and ammunition, Ukraine would
           | likely have won this war already.
        
         | belter wrote:
         | Red Runway: Chaos - https://youtu.be/xJ2Zg8JqfAk
        
         | protocolture wrote:
         | Yeah thats their favourite place to stand, I have never seen
         | them anywhere else.
        
       | 4ndrewl wrote:
       | Zelensky's Ukraine stood and fought against Russia for 3 years.
       | 
       | Trump's USA surrendered in 6 weeks.
        
         | chgs wrote:
         | Reagan is spinning in his grave.
        
         | skinnymuch wrote:
         | Good. Innocent Ukrainian men can stop being kidnapped and put
         | on front lines against their will. Barbarism.
        
           | MiscCompFacts wrote:
           | Presumably innocent Russian men are being kidnapped and
           | forced to fight for a dictator just as much. So let's stop
           | blaming the victim when Russia is clearly the aggressor and
           | started this whole ordeal.
        
             | lazypenguin wrote:
             | Surprisingly the Russian army is mostly volunteer since the
             | average pay right now is quite high by Russian standards.
             | There are also standard conscripted soldiers as part of the
             | country's required service. Allegedly the conscripts are
             | kept away from front lines since the death of conscripted
             | young men in Afghanistan was part of the political death
             | knell that led to the fall of the Soviet Union.
             | 
             | Unfortunately Ukraine is having to rely more on involuntary
             | conscription to fill the ranks as volunteer numbers have
             | dwindled. There are many documented cases of TASS
             | "kidnapping" military age men.
             | 
             | I don't see the parent poster blaming anybody. Maybe you
             | can say they provided a one-sided view but what they wrote
             | was factual.
        
           | lm28469 wrote:
           | It doesn't seem to bother Trump when it comes to arming
           | Israel, there no competition but more civilians died there
           | than in Ukraine so far in absolute number, and the ratio of
           | civilian to military deaths isn't even close.
           | 
           | If you want to play that card you have to be somewhat
           | consistent. I don't think Trump can play the human rights
           | card, and it's been a looong time
        
       | throwaway48476 wrote:
       | Ukraine is just the beginning. The peace deal being negotiated
       | includes NATO withdrawing to 1990 borders.
        
         | sterlind wrote:
         | "Withdrawing" to 1990 borders? You mean expelling the states
         | that joined after 1990? I'm not sure that would go over well
         | with the Baltics, Romania, Sweden and Finland. Withdrawal from
         | NATO is voluntary and cannot be compelled.
        
           | euroderf wrote:
           | Yes, the Baltic states in particular were fanatical (um,
           | "single-minded") about getting NATO security guarantees. Wild
           | horses couldn't drag them away.
        
           | throwaway48476 wrote:
           | USA leaving NATO was floated. I don't know how realistic any
           | of it is, just that these are the terms being negotiated.
        
             | danieldk wrote:
             | At this point, is NATO still alive [1]? I don't think any
             | other NATO country still trusts the US to help when a
             | country has to invoke Article 5.
             | 
             | NATO in its former shape has pretty much been dismantled
             | over the course of last month.
             | 
             | [1] NATO minus the US is still alive, of course.
        
               | jopsen wrote:
               | There are a lot of regional frameworks within NATO. The
               | US doesn't lead all of them. But some of them are
               | probably just paper (not all).
               | 
               | I'd also find it hard to imagine the US not providing
               | enablers like satellite targeting, etc. Or the US being
               | unwilling to sell ammo.
        
               | throwaway48476 wrote:
               | That might have been true last week.
        
           | jwilk wrote:
           | You forgot Poland. :-P
        
             | ZeroTalent wrote:
             | They will never let Poland go because it's a buffer for
             | Germany.
        
           | spbaar wrote:
           | It will be a withdrawal of US troops and bases with a wink
           | wink. And nothing but impeachment can compel the president to
           | actually respond to an article V call.
        
           | lovich wrote:
           | lol, those agreements are just pieces of paper.
           | 
           | Deals don't matter when the counterparty wont adhere to them
           | and there is no third party forcing them to
        
       | amai wrote:
       | When will the US start to go all in an deliver military aid to
       | Russia? Like North Korea, Iran and China...
        
         | dgellow wrote:
         | My guess is 2-3 weeks, given how fast things are shifting
        
           | bwb wrote:
           | They are already drafting an end to sanctions, which is
           | unbelievable.
        
             | ratg13 wrote:
             | Tarriff other countries and then establish a free trade
             | agreement with Russia to boost their economy.
             | 
             | One wonders if they will make American packaging for their
             | products, or just sell the Russian labeled products
             | straight on US shelves.
        
               | actionfromafar wrote:
               | What products? Caviar and crude?
        
               | prennert wrote:
               | minerals
        
               | rchaud wrote:
               | Why not weapons? Why bother with expensive, unionized US
               | labour building rifles and missiles and jets when Russia
               | has cheaper alternatives?
        
             | gpsx wrote:
             | Trump said he wanted peace, but I think he really wanted an
             | end for the sanctions, probably to help with his goal of
             | lowering the price of oil. I don't think he cares at all
             | about how things turn out in Ukraine.
        
               | _DeadFred_ wrote:
               | Trump met with the Russia in Saudi for 'peace talks'. I
               | doubt lowering oil prices was the concern there.
        
             | Henchman21 wrote:
             | Its only unbelievable if your head has been stuck firmly in
             | the sand.
        
         | preisschild wrote:
         | He also personally threatened Zelenskyy, so maybe they will
         | help Russia in the form of intelligence on Zelenskyy's position
         | when he is visiting troops near the front...
        
       | Havoc wrote:
       | Someone's ego got hurt
        
       | ponector wrote:
       | Now it is clear that USA takes Putin's side in the war.
       | 
       | The only peace plan Trump has is to humiliate Ukraine ans push it
       | to accept surrender to Russia with reparations payments to USA.
        
       | 3oil3 wrote:
       | During the cuban missile crisis back in 1960ish, Russian Soviets
       | actually had reached the point where they had launch-ready, on-
       | ramp nuclear missiles. We learned some 20 years later that the US
       | had deployed nuclear missiles of their own in Turkey, and the
       | agreement was to remove those missiles in return. Back in those
       | days, we had no "nuclear suitcase" for approving a nuclear
       | launch, and we had US warships surrounding Cuba ("quarantine",
       | brilliant Pres. Kennedy!), themselves encircled by Soviet
       | nuclear-equipped submarines. I'm glad these men knew what is war
       | like, and didn't get humanity dragged into a MAD, like all of
       | these civilians today are trying to do. Let's just do a cease-
       | fire, whatever the reason, let's just stop firing, and let's
       | talk. The enemy is the enemy, this is what it is, but let's not
       | forget, quoting Hemingway, that they are the enemy just because
       | we were born on this side of the mountain, and them on the other
       | side. If we dehumanize the enemy, what are we then?
        
         | beretguy wrote:
         | There is absolutely no talking to russia because russia will
         | not respect any talks or agreements. Talking to russia will
         | only buy time for russia to rearm and attack again. Here is the
         | proof:
         | 
         | "Zelensky sent Trump list of all 'ceasefires' violated by
         | Russia"
         | 
         | https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-gave-trump-list-of-all-...
         | 
         | russia respects nothing except getting punched back. They will
         | break every single agreement. No amount of talking will make a
         | situation any better, only worse, because it will give time to
         | russia to rearm. The center cannot hold, it's too late, he
         | comes.
         | 
         | Anybody who suggests "talking to russia" have absolutely no
         | clue what they are talking about. Anybody who suggests "talking
         | to russia" is either slow or works for russia.
        
           | walleeee wrote:
           | Well-respected American leaders thought it wise and
           | worthwhile to maintain backchannels with the USSR throughout
           | the cold war. Presumably, then, the Soviets were a lesser
           | threat, materially and ideologically, to the American project
           | than Russia is today? Is that correct?
        
             | bigodbiel wrote:
             | Amazingly the USSR was more reliable than Putin's russia,
             | whatever that is today.
        
       | rayiner wrote:
       | It seems like Ukraine is insisting on a "security guarantee." Can
       | someone explain how the U.S. providing a security guarantee
       | wouldn't increase the risk of american boots on the ground in
       | Ukraine?
        
         | acjacobson wrote:
         | Of course it increases the risk - it's the whole point of the
         | ask.
        
           | rayiner wrote:
           | Why is nobody being open about that? Because I suspect the
           | appetite for that is low. Germany is about closer to Russia
           | than we are--how many Germans are willing to go die in
           | Ukraine?
        
             | Kim_Bruning wrote:
             | A recent poll suggests Germans are currently marginally in
             | favor of sending peacekeepers.
             | 
             | The point of a peacekeeping mission is -of course- to
             | prevent further war by means of deterrence (though there's
             | always still a small risk, of course), so hopefully no one
             | goes to die there.
             | 
             | Currently Germany just had elections, so a clear unified
             | statement from the new-government-in-formation is not yet
             | available.
             | 
             | https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/thin-majority-
             | germans-b...
        
             | llamaimperative wrote:
             | Nobody being open about how deterrence works? Probably
             | because no one thought it needed to be explained.
        
             | _DeadFred_ wrote:
             | How this works is pretty common knowledge. The world has
             | been using peacekeepers for quite a while. But you know
             | that and you know you are just concern trolling.
        
         | mehphp wrote:
         | He's insisting on something that the U.S. already agreed to...
         | 
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum
        
           | rayiner wrote:
           | From my reading, that says we agreed not to invade Ukraine,
           | not that we agreed to put american boots on the ground to
           | defend Ukraine.
        
             | maxerickson wrote:
             | Does "nuclear weapons" attach to the first half of the or
             | in section 4? Seems they wrote it poorly...
             | 
             | "victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of
             | aggression in which nuclear weapons are used"
             | 
             | You are also engaged in some sophistry, where you are
             | acting as if the hypothetical obligation you are discussing
             | is the only possible obligation. Selling aging weapons
             | stock is pretty clearly assistance, and it isn't exactly
             | boots on the ground.
        
               | rayiner wrote:
               | Don't randomly accuse people of "sophistry." Zelensky is
               | publicly demanding a security guarantee, and sprung that
               | on Trump at the meeting. I didn't say there couldn't be
               | other support, but the security guarantee is what I'm
               | talking about because that seems to be critical.
        
               | maxerickson wrote:
               | Why are you saying it's random?
               | 
               | Trump isn't meeting the existing obligations and you are
               | talking about how problematic Ukraine's condition for new
               | agreements would be.
        
               | rayiner wrote:
               | We have no obligation to support Ukraine under that
               | memorandum.
        
               | Kim_Bruning wrote:
               | If I have my dates right,
               | 
               | Macron (president of France) visited the White House on
               | Feb 24 and pointed out that security guarantees would be
               | important and that the US could play an important role
               | providing those guarantees. This discussion ended
               | amicably. [1]
               | 
               | Starmer (Prime Minister of the UK) visited Trump on Feb
               | 27 , and besides handing over an invitation from King
               | Charles, also discussed the fact that there would need to
               | be security guarantees in any particular Ukraine deal.
               | This discussion also ended amicably. [2]
               | 
               | Zelensky (President of Ukraine) then visited on Feb 28
               | and reiterated the points his colleagues had made. This
               | time something went wrong. [3]
               | 
               | [1] https://apnews.com/article/trump-macron-ukraine-
               | russia-starm...
               | 
               | [2] https://www.theguardian.com/us-
               | news/2025/feb/27/trump-starme...
               | 
               | [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Trump%E2%80%93Zele
               | nskyy_m...
        
               | libertine wrote:
               | What went wrong is assuming there were good faith talks
               | in the first two instances with Macron and Starmer.
               | 
               | It isn't by chance that even after the talks with Macron,
               | Trump tried to lie in front of him only to be corrected
               | by Macron in the oval office.
               | 
               | Even after being correct, and continues to spin the same
               | lie during the Zelensky talks and after.
               | 
               | The only thing that went wrong was assuming that Trump
               | ever had Ukraine interest in sight, and not Russia
               | interests.
               | 
               | What we witnessed isn't anything new or shocking to
               | anyone who has been following this event.
               | 
               | This had been a recurring behavior from this
               | administration, where there's a theatrical display to
               | show that there might be some understanding, with leaders
               | putting their credibility in the to say there's some
               | alignment, only to have Trump the next day stating the
               | opposite or something completely unaligned with previous
               | statements.
               | 
               | Let's hope this was the the final straw, and just accept
               | that Russia managed to capture the US. Now it's about
               | protecting this from happening elsewhere - Twitter, and
               | other platforms, including alternative media should start
               | to be banned in Europe ASAP.
        
               | s1artibartfast wrote:
               | Yes, Nuclear weapons attaches to the first clause.
        
               | sethammons wrote:
               | and if Russia threatens Ukraine with nukes if it joins
               | NATO, is that a nuclear threat?
        
               | s1artibartfast wrote:
               | Yes. And when Russia did that the US was treaty bound to
               | raise the issue of assistance with the security council.
               | 
               | The US met this obligation and exceeded it. The US called
               | an emergency session under resolution 2623.
               | 
               | Exceeded the obligations by acting outside of the UN and
               | security council to provide independent aid in funding.
               | 
               | The memorandum requires that the US do nothing on its
               | own, let alone provide unlimited assistance.
        
         | spiderfarmer wrote:
         | They just want the US to keep their word on promises already
         | made. Is that so unreasonable? They gave up their nukes for it.
        
           | rayiner wrote:
           | You're saying we already gave them the equivalent of NATO
           | Article 5?
        
             | spiderfarmer wrote:
             | Not equivalent, but the USA is in violation as of today.
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | The USA is not in violation of that. All of points 1-6
               | have been complied with.
               | 
               | Russia is in clear violation of it, but it never promised
               | US military intervention. All it promises is we'd go to
               | the Security Council about it.
               | 
               | The memorandum didn't really anticipate one of the
               | signatories with a UN veto being the aggressor.
        
               | spectra72 wrote:
               | The UK, France and China also signed that same agreement.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | France and China signed separate, individual agreements.
               | 
               | The UK and France have clearly followed (and exceeded,
               | via direct military aid it does not require) the
               | requirements of the memorandum.
               | 
               | I can't find the text of China's agreement.
        
               | spectra72 wrote:
               | As has the US with all of their aid.
               | 
               | Yet, the US is the one that is forever chided for being
               | negligent to the terms of the agreement.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | > As has the US with all of their aid.
               | 
               | As I've noted upthread.
               | 
               | > Yet, the US is the one that is forever chided for being
               | negligent to the terms of the agreement.
               | 
               | The US has absolutely complied with the Budapest
               | Memorandum's requirements.
               | 
               | Military aid isn't required, it's just a good idea. The
               | recent withdrawal of aid is a betrayal of an ally, but
               | not a violation of the Memorandum.
        
           | kelipso wrote:
           | The nukes were never under Ukraine control or possession.
           | It's like saying Turkey has nukes, they don't, they are US
           | nukes.
        
             | libertine wrote:
             | Here comes the Russian propaganda... The nukes belonged to
             | Ukraine. Just like Belarus nukes belonged to them.
             | 
             | What is said by Russian propagandists is that Ukraine
             | didn't have the launch codes - like it was some magical
             | barrier that would prevent Ukraine from deploying the nukes
             | if they wanted to.
             | 
             | Like Ukrainian scientists didn't play a major a role in
             | USSR nuclear development, and didn't have the know how to
             | just use other system to deploy the nukes.
             | 
             | It's part of the Russian propaganda to make Ukrainians into
             | incompetent inferior ethnic group - why do you think they
             | address them by derogatory ethnic slurs like "little
             | Russians"?
        
               | kelipso wrote:
               | > that Ukraine didn't have the launch codes - like it was
               | some magical barrier that would prevent Ukraine from
               | deploying the nukes if they wanted to
               | 
               | Yeah, that's what launch codes are. Stop with the Ukraine
               | propaganda..
        
               | libertine wrote:
               | You're in the wrong place to spread Russia propaganda,
               | here we go:
               | 
               | > After its dissolution in 1991, Ukraine became the third
               | largest nuclear power in the world and held about one
               | third of the former Soviet nuclear weapons, delivery
               | system, and significant knowledge of its design and
               | production. Ukraine inherited about 130 UR-100N
               | intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) with six
               | warheads each, 46 RT-23 Molodets ICBMs with ten warheads
               | apiece, as well as 33 heavy bombers, totaling
               | approximately 1,700 nuclear warheads that remained on
               | Ukrainian territory.[0]
               | 
               | [0]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_and_weapons_of
               | _mass_...
               | 
               | And the magical Russian propaganda launch codes that
               | required Russia and USA to request Ukraine to
               | decommission nukes, because Ukraine couldn't use any of
               | those nukes.
               | 
               | By the way, what are the launch codes for nukes deployed
               | by bombers lmao the bombers won't take off if Russia
               | didn't insert the launch codes?
        
               | kelipso wrote:
               | Lol using wikipedia as a source. Either way, the fact
               | remains that there was no set of events in which Ukraine
               | would have been allowed to have nukes. If Ukraine has
               | said no, either the new government would be replaced or
               | Ukraine would have gotten invaded by US and Russia
               | simultaneously.
               | 
               | It's nice that people say Ukraine and the other countries
               | owned the nukes or whatever and have them sign an
               | agreement to "hand over" something they didn't own, but
               | that's just optics. Reality is Ukraine never could use
               | those nukes and didn't have a military force or access to
               | the nukes to keep them.
        
               | lovich wrote:
               | If they couldn't have kept them, why were they asked?
        
               | libertine wrote:
               | Of course Wikipedia, or any other source, wouldn't be
               | enough. By the way, what is your source?
               | 
               | Here's the man himself, Bill Clinton, stating it was not
               | only a possibility for Ukraine to keep their nukes, but
               | also that it was a mistake he regrets making:
               | https://youtu.be/nKoba5GvNsc?si=3T1W6BvrqEqvkpNE
               | 
               | So not only you're spreading propaganda, and lies,
               | without sources to support your claims, you're even
               | doubling down on more fantasy.
               | 
               | The fact is that Ukraine could use those nukes, both the
               | ICBM ones that would require the "magical codes", also
               | the ones deployed by the bombers, they also had the
               | technical know how to further develop their nuclear
               | arsenal, as well as having the fuel to produce more.
        
             | disgruntledphd2 wrote:
             | It was considered enough of a big deal that there was a
             | Treaty about it.
        
         | Kim_Bruning wrote:
         | An actual lasting peace deal requires some sort of security
         | guarantee, else it's not really a "peace deal", but rather
         | something more like a capitulation. If US political leadership
         | didn't have at least _some_ solution for security in mind to
         | begin with, then they wouldn 't have been negotiating in good
         | faith.
         | 
         | That said, Security Guarantees don't necessarily directly mean
         | boots on the ground, certainly not straight away.
         | 
         | It could mean a deterrence framework where there a clear
         | commitments that certain actions would mean certain responses,
         | which itself reduces the chance those responses are necessary.
         | Security guarantees can specify escalating measures before
         | reaching an actual troop deployment. And European nations have
         | already promised to provide the initial boots on the ground,
         | though they really would like an American backstop.
         | 
         | The deterrence aspect is crucial - formal security frameworks
         | often prevent conflict precisely because they make aggression
         | too costly, reducing the likelihood they'd ever need to be
         | activated.
        
           | rayiner wrote:
           | That makes it seem like a security guarantee would risk
           | deeper US involvement, as eventually happened with Korea,
           | Vietnam, and Iraq I.
           | 
           | It seems to me that your logic would make the Iraq War quite
           | defensible. Iraq had already invaded Kuwait. We had already
           | guaranteed Kuwait's security, so we would've had to send
           | troops if Saddam invaded again. So if the CIA was correct
           | that Saddam was rearming, there was a logic to deposing him
           | now and resolving the situation on terms favorable to us,
           | instead of reactively getting involved at a future date.
           | Without the benefit of hindsight--knowing Saddam didn't have
           | WMDs--it seems like the only basis for opposing the Iraq War
           | under your logic would have been to quibble about how much of
           | an affirmative step Saddam had to take before our obligation
           | to put boots on the ground kicked in.
        
             | Kim_Bruning wrote:
             | You're right, it really depends on what the security
             | guarantees are, how they're stated, and whether they're
             | credible.
             | 
             | As an example of a case that _has_ worked, the mutual
             | security guarantees within NATO have prevented WWIII so
             | far. (knock on wood)
             | 
             | Obviously, we should be trying to go for something more
             | like the latter.
             | 
             | Alternately, of course, no security guarantees, and both
             | sides continue to fight.
             | 
             | China is already closely watching how the west responds to
             | Ukraine, with potential implications for Taiwan. This
             | increases the likelihood that American security
             | commitments/requirements will eventually be tested more
             | directly.
        
           | kelipso wrote:
           | > though they really would like an American backstop.
           | 
           | It's not a really would like. In all of their speeches by key
           | politicians, European boots on the ground is conditional on
           | US backstop. So it's not happening without US support.
        
           | _DeadFred_ wrote:
           | Stop. Dude isn't interested in a real answer, he's concern
           | trolling. He propogandizes his position over and over on this
           | site.
        
             | rayiner wrote:
             | I'm not concern trolling. I don't want a single U.S.
             | soldier on Ukraine soil. It's a red line. I'm asking
             | whether a security guarantee increases the risk of that
             | happening.
        
         | openasocket wrote:
         | In the near term, Ukraine wants continued delivery of military
         | equipment. In the end game, they want any sort of peace treaty
         | ending this war to include NATO/EU/US support. Ideally, in the
         | form of NATO membership. This is crucial to ensure that any
         | peace deal would be lasting. Putin has repeatedly stated that
         | he does not believe a Ukrainian state has a right to exist, and
         | has engaged in military operations against them for over a
         | decade at this point. There is no chance a peace deal will
         | endure without some sort of security guarantee from another
         | power.
        
       | josephstalinOk wrote:
       | Now pause all military aid to Israel. No? Are you Israel's bitch?
        
         | rozap wrote:
         | Yes, yes we are.
        
       | iammjm wrote:
       | "Free world" my ass. As a European, the US has always been my
       | favorite country and I've been basically universally pro-US all
       | my life. The Recent US decisions managed to turn it 180 degrees
       | for me, in a matter of basically a couple of months. As I
       | consider myself to be a more or less statistical normie, I assume
       | theres many, many more people like me. So: fuck US & eat shit, go
       | suck Putins dick while the EU & the rest of the true free world
       | should focus our efforts on getting nukes, investing in military
       | and intelligence, and leveraging new drone & radar technologies.
       | Theres honestly never been a better time, geopolitically and
       | technologically, to wane off of US-dependence.
        
         | JaggerJo wrote:
         | Yeah, kind of agree.
         | 
         | I don't think this thought would have crossed my mind a few
         | years ago, but I think more European countries need Nukes. Sad,
         | but seems like the US can't be trusted anymore.
        
         | halper wrote:
         | With all due respect to your experience and with sincerity, I
         | must ask: did you miss Trump's first presidency? Surely that
         | was the time to become disillusioned with the USA, if not
         | before?
        
           | RealityVoid wrote:
           | Speaking from my own experience... I was hoping Trump was an
           | anomaly. That the US would have the good sense of NOT voting
           | the guy that directly tried to subvert the electoral process.
           | That somehow the American public still had a moral compass
           | and that the many Americans I admired were representative for
           | their country. I was obviously a fool.
           | 
           | Otherwise, I kept saying to anyone who had ears around me
           | what a grave danger Trump is. I've been doing this for more
           | than 10 years. I saw him as a corrupt asshole since reading
           | his book "The art of the deal" more than 20 years ago. He
           | came highly recommended in the sphere of the then emerging
           | "manosphere"/ PUA culture of the 2000's (I cringe at my own
           | stupidity and shallowness now).
        
         | mythrwy wrote:
         | Could be the development of this attitude is part of the point.
        
         | CapricornNoble wrote:
         | >while the EU & the rest of the true free world should focus
         | our efforts on getting nukes, investing in military and
         | intelligence, and leveraging new drone & radar technologies.
         | 
         | You do realize all of that requires massive investment? Where
         | is the EU going to get that money? Raise taxes on a population
         | that is already struggling in a stagnant economy? An economy
         | that is stagnant partly due to the loss of the dirt-cheap
         | energy that European heavy industry was importing from Russia.
         | 
         | As an American (and not one of European decent, so I don't hold
         | the romantic attachment to Europe that many have), I'm
         | perfectly happy with the salty, delusional Europeans agreeing
         | with severing trans-Atlantic relations. Europe has spawned two
         | World Wars and seems intent on flirting with a third. The
         | sooner we disconnect from you guys, and pivot back to a mix of
         | the Pacific Rim + the Americas, the better.
         | 
         | Now if only we could disband AIPAC...
        
         | grouchomarx wrote:
         | >pro-US all my life >So: fuck US & eat shit
         | 
         | too bad it only took you a few moments to take on this
         | mentality after a lifetime of goodwill. America's been hijacked
         | you should continue to stand with it
        
       | JaggerJo wrote:
       | Crazy how you can ruin a nations reputation in weeks..
        
         | rapind wrote:
         | Everyone's about to get nukes now. What could go wrong.
        
           | ozmodiar wrote:
           | You're not joking, a lot of people I talk to have gone from
           | anti nuke to hard pro nuke. I can see the future having a lot
           | more nukes in it now that there's no reliable world order to
           | believe in.
        
             | jopsen wrote:
             | I doubt Denmark will get nukes, nor am I sure I'd be in
             | favor of nukes.
             | 
             | But I can see the argument that having the ability to nuke
             | 50m Russians might deter them from attacking 5m Danes.
             | 
             | And I'd personally hate to sit in a trench. Which is a real
             | risk if Russia attacks the Baltics and only half of NATO
             | shows up.
             | 
             | So maybe we should get nukes and preposition them in the
             | Baltics.
             | 
             | I'm sure our politicians wouldn't want to :)
        
               | preisschild wrote:
               | > I doubt Denmark will get nukes, nor am I sure I'd be in
               | favor of nukes.
               | 
               | Ideally, we'd have an EU military that takes control of
               | nuclear weapons for example and automatically use them to
               | retaliate when enemy nuclear weapons are launched against
               | EU territory.
        
               | jajko wrote:
               | Yeah not with Orban or Fico involved, those are both
               | hardened criminals involved in murders too. Subverting EU
               | is their morning activity.
               | 
               | I'd say no EU country should rely on full defense from
               | the rest, each big one should start on their own in
               | hardcore mode: drones, more heavy drones, optic cable
               | drones, drone swarms and then artillery, ammunition for
               | it and air defense (probably the hardest), then the rest.
               | Himars is cool tech but thats a very expensive tech to
               | develop and certainly in current numbers doesn't affect
               | outcome of war. License/buy tech from ukrainians since
               | they have best hands one warfare experience from whole
               | europe, setup manufacturing with them, helping them and
               | ourselves. What should be shared ie nuclear stuff thats
               | too much for a single country.
               | 
               | Silos with main manufacturing, copied elsewhere in
               | smaller numbers. Defense can be good business, just look
               | at US after WWII, not happy that we are heading in that
               | direction but there is no other way if we want to keep
               | freedom. I've grown up behind uron curtain oppressed by
               | soviets cough cough russians, and let me tell you, many
               | people died trying to escape to that freedom. Its
               | invaluable once you don't have it, not to everybody but
               | to many.
        
           | nanotuber wrote:
           | Disagree with the implication here and expect the opposite.
           | 
           | Ukraine peace (even an imperfect one) allows the US and
           | Russia to work together to prevent Iran from getting a nuke.
           | Ukraine won't get nukes in either scenario.
           | 
           | An ongoing war forces Russia to rely on Iran, limiting its
           | ability to work with US (and China), on isolating its nuclear
           | program.
           | 
           | DPRK nukes already exist and ROK is pressuring the US for
           | permission for them (neither Biden or Trump want to give
           | them).
           | 
           | I don't know of any other latent nuclear states.
        
             | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
             | DPRK redoubled its nuclear program and shut down
             | disarmament talks when Kim saw Saddam Hussein get regime-
             | changed after he willingly cooperated with UN inspectors to
             | show that there were no WMDs. They realized that
             | cooperating doesn't get you anywhere and the only insurance
             | is through nukes.
             | 
             | Now Ukraine, which gave up its warheads, is seeing the same
             | thing.
             | 
             | And even _Canadians_ are starting to discuss a nuclear
             | guarantee.
             | 
             | Yes, we are going to see more nuclear states. It may not
             | happen overnight but the status quo won't hold either.
        
               | nanotuber wrote:
               | The implication is that nuclear proliferation is linked
               | to the US pausing Ukraine aid.
               | 
               | That's a gross mischaracterization.
               | 
               | I'll bet you 10 to 1 that Ukraine won't end up with
               | nukes.
        
               | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
               | Ukraine might not, at this point, because it may be too
               | late for them under whatever heavy-handed peace deal gets
               | imposed. It's all the other would-be Ukraines who are
               | going to make nukes.
               | 
               | Finland, Poland, South Korea, Taiwan...
               | 
               | Better safe than sorry.
        
               | lovich wrote:
               | How did you move the goalposts in three sentences?
               | 
               | Nuclear proliferation occurring does not require Ukraine
               | in particular to be a country with nukes
        
             | ceejayoz wrote:
             | > I don't know of any other latent nuclear states.
             | 
             | Japan is sometimes described as a "screwdriver turn away
             | from a bomb". They've got the materials, the know-how, the
             | civilian nuclear program, and the rockets... and the
             | geopolitics to be interested.
        
               | nanotuber wrote:
               | That's a good point.
               | 
               | Both the ROK and Japan though are cases where the US
               | "pivoting to Asia" from Europe would make them less, not
               | more, likely to pursue such a breakout. And in both
               | cases, their incentives has existed prior to Ukraine.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | The ROK and Japan must both factor in the possibility of
               | America not coming to their aid in a similar fashion.
               | 
               | That wasn't a super realistic consideration until a few
               | weeks ago.
        
               | david-gpu wrote:
               | Arguably, most developed nations are in the same boat in
               | terms of being able to build a bomb in relatively short
               | notice. The main challenge is probably that refining
               | uranium is intrinsically a slow process.
               | 
               | I do wonder how many supposedly non-nuclear developed
               | countries have secret small-scale refinement plants and
               | the ability to assemble nuclear warheads in short notice.
               | It is the sort of stuff that they wouldn't want their own
               | populous to know, as it is controversial.
        
               | lovich wrote:
               | Biden also negotiated a deal which put refined nuclear
               | material in Australia's hands
               | 
               | http://npr.org/2023/03/13/1163153801/biden-is-selling-u-
               | s-nu...
        
       | egberts1 wrote:
       | People would say Budapest Memorandum give Ukraine the rights to
       | its 2,000 Soviet nuclear weapons. That's not what it said.
       | 
       | People would say that the same memorandum says Ukraine security
       | is absolute. Not that either.
       | 
       | People would say in 2014, US installed new Ukraine government via
       | propaganda. Looks dubious too.
       | 
       | People would say Ukraine shut down 11+ political parties who
       | opposed current Ukraine government; some parties were funded by
       | Russia. That part remains true.
       | 
       | Newspaper and TV in Ukraine were nationalized partially with
       | money by USAID, that was uncovered by US DOGE.
       | 
       | Elections were "suspended" in Ukraine. Last May 2024 was supposed
       | to have a nationwide election. Definitely true.
       | 
       | Seems like Ukraine is following US foreign policy that led to
       | demise of dictators like Mossadegh, Arbenz, Diem, Noriega,
       | Qadaffi, Saddam.
       | 
       | Is Zelensky a dictator now?
        
         | Justsignedup wrote:
         | Just so you know.
         | 
         | The Ukranian constitution states no elections during war.
         | 
         | All political opponents have come out and said we will hold
         | elections after victory. Nobody is against postponement.
         | 
         | Ukraine has had healthy consistent elections since the Russian
         | backed government was booted out.
        
           | egberts1 wrote:
           | Good to know.
           | 
           | Now we wait for the end results.
           | 
           | But curious, is Zelensky using the pretense of war to stay in
           | power?
        
             | skeletal88 wrote:
             | What, no. I guess he would rather do something else than be
             | a wartime president.
             | 
             | trump should call putin a dictator, because.. he obviously
             | is, but for some reason he chose to attack Zelensky
             | instead.
             | 
             | How can there be elections when there are millions of
             | people displaced, there are large parts of the country
             | occupied and huge part of the population is on the front
             | defending the country.
             | 
             | This "dictator" stuff is just straight russian propaganda,
             | that americans have been swallowing up because someone told
             | trump it was true.
        
             | openasocket wrote:
             | How do you intend to conduct an election during an active
             | war when 20% of the country, over 3 million Ukrainians, are
             | under Russian occupation? Do they just not get to vote?
        
               | ImJamal wrote:
               | Plenty of countries have held elections during war,
               | including war in their country. The US (civil war), Iraq
               | and Afghanistan during the US occupation, Japan (WW2),
               | etc.
               | 
               | I know it can be a challenge, but it has been done.
        
             | myvoiceismypass wrote:
             | > But curious, is Zelensky using the pretense of war to
             | stay in power?
             | 
             | See this from just a week ago: "Zelenskyy offers to resign
             | in exchange for peace, NATO entry"
             | 
             | https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-offer-
             | re...
        
               | egberts1 wrote:
               | It is a challenge to conduct an election during war.
               | 
               | Never forget:
               | 
               | 1) Zelensky sat quietly while Democrats tried to impeach
               | Trump the first time. Zelensky alone could have put an
               | end to that sham impeachment.
               | 
               | 2) Zelensky actively campaign against Donald Trump for
               | the Democrats.
               | 
               | 3) One of Zelinsky's radicalized zealots tried to kill
               | Donald Trump.
               | 
               | Then Zelensky reneges on the mineral deal because it
               | doesn't continue the money laundering proxy war the
               | Democrats and RINO war whores started.
               | 
               | At some point, people might wake up and realize Zelensky
               | is not a good guy.
               | 
               | Maybe.
        
       | belter wrote:
       | Richard Nixon on Soviet Union
       | 
       | "We must be ever watchful when dealing with regimes whose actions
       | have often betrayed their promises."
       | 
       | Ronald Reagan
       | 
       | "I call the Soviet Union an evil empire."
       | 
       | George H. W. Bush on Russia
       | 
       | "The history of deception and coercion reminds us that trust is
       | never given
       | 
       | lightly--it must be earned and continuously verified."
       | 
       | George W. Bush
       | 
       | "We call on Moscow to immediately cease its aggressive actions
       | and respect the sovereignty of its neighbors. We cannot afford to
       | trust a regime that repeatedly flouts international norms."
       | 
       | Donald Trump
       | 
       | "I have great respect for Putin."
       | 
       | I have a very good relationship with him [Putin]."
        
         | rchaud wrote:
         | Nixon would be seen as a woke elite in today's Republican
         | party. He helped introduce environmental legislation in the US,
         | and met with Mao to open trade links and counterbalance the
         | USSR.
        
       | wtcactus wrote:
       | It's appalling to see so many comments here defending what's
       | going on.
       | 
       | I'm trying to take it in good faith and accept these people
       | actually think this instead of being paid to spread Russian
       | disinformation. So, for those that are in good faith, as an
       | European, I'll explain mine (and my close circle) position:
       | 
       | It's true that the USA doesn't have any obligation of helping
       | Ukraine and should be up to us, Europeans, to step up. But, Trump
       | didn't need to be a Russian disinformation asset about it and go
       | through that, despicable , petty, childish display in the White
       | House, where, preying together with his VP, they tried to frame
       | Zelenskyy and Ukraine for starting a war.
       | 
       | They could just politely, and diplomatic reduce US aid, while
       | still abiding by the most basic, absolute truth: Putin started
       | this war and all fault for it lies in Russian hands and Ukraine
       | is just a victim in all this.
       | 
       | This would be the upright, sensible and intelligent position to
       | hold if they really just didn't want to continue contributing to
       | Ukraine's defense with US' money.
        
         | lfmunoz4 wrote:
         | Do you remember what happened when Russia tried to install
         | missiles in Cuba? The USA put its foot down and was willing to
         | have a nuclear war. Same thing is happening in Russia, making
         | Ukraine part of NATO is just too close. Why is it so hard for
         | people to understand this?
        
           | wtcactus wrote:
           | Do you remember that started because Russia already invaded
           | part of Ukraine in 2014?
           | 
           | Do you remember Russia's promises when Ukraine voluntarily
           | ceded their nuclear arsenal to Russia?
        
             | lfmunoz4 wrote:
             | Not sure what the point you are making is? Should we just
             | keep going back in history and try to cherry pick events to
             | blame and justify current conflicts? That can go on
             | indefinitely and is why we keep having wars.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | The current war _started with the 2014 invasion by
               | Russia_.
               | 
               | Claiming that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia is caused
               | and justified by a thing which happened _after and in
               | response to_ that invasion is arguing for retrocausality.
               | It is not  "going back in history and cherry picking
               | events" to point out when and how _the current war
               | started_ in a discussion of the _causes of the current
               | war_ , especially when an event that happened _after and
               | in response to_ the start of the current war is argued to
               | justify _the aggressor in the current war_.
        
               | skinnymuch wrote:
               | It started because of the western coup in Ukraine.
               | Reminds me of people who say Oct 7 started the "war" in
               | Palestine.
        
               | wtcactus wrote:
               | > Should we just keep going back in history and try to
               | cherry pick events to blame and justify current conflicts
               | 
               | But, it is you that did just that. You picked up an event
               | from the 1960's in a totally different continent, to
               | justify Russian continued agressions against Ukraine.
               | 
               | I answered by actually pointing out an event from 10
               | years ago that's directly related to this war.
        
               | skinnymuch wrote:
               | Russia responded to a western coup on one of the 3 East
               | Slavic nations (Russia Ukraine Belarus).
        
           | GJim wrote:
           | Except NATO is a defence organisation.
           | 
           | Ask yourself why countries bordering Russia want to join.
        
             | skinnymuch wrote:
             | No it's not. Bullies always lying.
        
           | layer8 wrote:
           | How is that related to the comment you're replying to?
        
           | jsnider3 wrote:
           | Making Ukraine part of NATO is just something Putin made up,
           | not an actual thing.
        
             | CapricornNoble wrote:
             | I recommend reading some of the diplomatic cables on
             | Wikileaks
             | https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW3127_a.html
             | <--this one from 2008 has Russian diplomats warning about
             | NATO expansion and Ukraine
             | 
             | https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08KYIV1144_a.html <--
             | this one is about Ukrainian spending on a pro-NATO
             | information campaign
             | 
             | The Ukrainian president who was anti-NATO is the one that
             | the Euromaidan deposed. https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-
             | scraps-nato-accession-plans/a-...
             | 
             | Here's France24's take in 2014 when Ukraine voted to
             | abandon "non-aligned" status:
             | https://www.france24.com/en/20141223-ukraine-parliament-
             | vote... _Russia's annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and
             | its support for the separatist insurgency appear partly
             | rooted in fears that the Western military alliance could
             | expand its presence on the Russian border._
             | 
             | Then in 2019 we have this: Ukraine President Signs
             | Constitutional Amendment On NATO, EU Membership (Radio Free
             | Europe, 2019) https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-president-
             | signs-constitution...
             | 
             | Followed up by Zelensky doubling down on NATO later that
             | same year: https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-president-
             | promises-nato-refe...
             | 
             | And then Trump sending additional lethal aid to Ukraine at
             | the end of the year:
             | https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2019/12/04/trump-to-
             | see...
             | 
             | My personal opinion is that these events in 2019 were the
             | last straw for Putin. He probably made the decision to
             | invade early in 2020....but had to pause those plans while
             | the whole world grappled with COVID. It then took them into
             | mid-2021 to get the ball rolling on staging their forces
             | for invasion, and then they were delayed again due to Xi
             | Jinping telling Putin to not fuck up his Beijing Olympics
             | or he wouldn't get tacit support from the PRC. All of which
             | meant that the early-2022 invasion was likely caused by
             | NATO-related issues that were looking increasingly
             | concerning 3 years earlier.
        
           | dragonwriter wrote:
           | > making Ukraine part of NATO is just too close.
           | 
           | Ukraine (after abandoning efforts after the MAP rejection --
           | done at Russia's insistence -- in 2008) only started looking
           | at NATO membership again _after_ Russia invaded, so it is
           | ludicrously disconnected from reality (but exactly
           | representative of Russian propaganda!) to try to use that to
           | justify the invasion.
        
       | fhat151ag wrote:
       | That is another pressure tactic so the EU can sell increased arms
       | spending to its citizens.
       | 
       | The EU leaders, who are naive to the extreme, comply. They make
       | peace plans that Russia is known not to accept. Once that is
       | done, they'll keep the conflict on a low flame until the US feels
       | getting involved again.
       | 
       | Which can happen at any moment, including under Trump within the
       | next two months.
       | 
       | Trump has been deliberately provoking the EU's nationalistic
       | feelings, starting with Greenland and ending with the Zelensky
       | fallout theater.
       | 
       | If the EU had any pride, it would negotiate with Russia directly,
       | skipping the US. Reopen Nordstream and see if the purportedly
       | Russia-friendly Trump agrees.
       | 
       | Regarding Trump being a Russian asset: It has happened before,
       | with Hillary Clinton and Sergey Lavrov initiating a "reset" in
       | US/Russia relations:
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_reset
       | 
       | Why is Hilary Clinton not called a Russian asset?
        
       | unethical_ban wrote:
       | Every time I ask rhetorically what a known, paid Russian asset
       | would do differently as President of the US than Trump is doing,
       | I get crickets from Trump supporters.
        
         | hnburnsy wrote:
         | >what a known, paid Russian asset would do differently as
         | President of the US than Trump
         | 
         | Well the obvious one is dropping Russian sanctions. Has Trump
         | done this?
        
           | Encounter wrote:
           | It seems to be in the works:
           | https://www.reuters.com/world/white-house-seeks-plan-
           | possibl...
        
       | j_timberlake wrote:
       | What would it take for the Republican congress to consider
       | impeaching him and Vance? Trump sending military aid to Russia?
       | Crashing the economy? Defying the courts?
       | 
       | We might actually find out at this rate.
        
       | nanotuber wrote:
       | Comments are disappointing for hacker news standard.
       | 
       | This pause was predictable (I predicted it in Nov 2024). It's
       | negotiation leverage to steer toward an immediate resolution of
       | the war.
       | 
       | An immediate resolution of the war cuts losses: Ukraine loses
       | territory, but keeps its sovereignty.
       | 
       | The challenge is that there aren't many other viable paths. An
       | indefinite forever war, with high risk of a Ukraine state
       | collapse, is a most likely alternative. A direct confrontation
       | between NATO and Russia is another, much less likely alternative.
       | The idea that Russia's economy will collapse is highly unlikely.
       | 
       | The Trump Administration will resume military aid after Ukraine
       | is forced to ceasefire talks. Ukraine will not likely (nor with
       | EU) recognize loss territory. However Russia is likely to hold it
       | de facto.
       | 
       | Although I doubt any peace negotiated will last decades. The
       | reasons for the war are deep.
        
         | edmundsauto wrote:
         | What are the deeper reasons for the war? All I hear from
         | talking heads is this is aggression from Russia to grab
         | resources and potentially continue to expand their territories
         | through conquest.
        
           | helge9210 wrote:
           | Statehood of Russia (only since 1721; originally Principality
           | of Moscow established in 1263) is coming from Mongols.
           | 
           | With Kyiv under control, they can claim history and culture
           | of Rus (also known as Kyivan Rus').
           | 
           | This is the fundamental ideological reason for the war going
           | on since 1657.
        
           | nanotuber wrote:
           | The deeper reason is that the Baltics are in a security
           | conundrum. Russia is inherently insecure, and Europe doesn't
           | know where Europe ends. For security - let's compare the
           | Russian Federation and the US.
           | 
           | Russia is the largest country on earth (twice size of US) yet
           | it has half the US population.
           | 
           | The US has two neighboring states and two oceans that border
           | it (with strongest navy in the world). Russia has 14
           | neighboring states and several neighbor areas in frozen
           | conflict. Russia has no oceans separating its adversaries.
           | 
           | In terms of history, Ukraine (and Belarus) have been the
           | routes of choice for military invasions into Moscow.
           | 
           | As a result of this security situation, Russia (and the
           | Soviet Union before it, and the Tsarists before them, ...)
           | relies on having a neutral periphery as a buffer zone.
           | Ukraine declared itself neutral in its constitution at the
           | formation of the country as it split from the Soviet Union.
           | In 2019 Ukraine stripped neutrality from its constitution and
           | wrote in pursuit of NATO membership.
           | 
           | For Europe not knowing where it ends, just look at EU
           | membership, potential membership, and statements evolving
           | over the past several decades from officials about where
           | Europe ends.
           | 
           | The proximal cause of the war, literally the day-by-day
           | timeline leading up to the conflict, was the Biden
           | Administration threatening to pull Ukraine in NATO, Russia
           | stated this was a red line and that it would invade and
           | destroy Ukraine rather than let that happen, and then Russia
           | and NATO diplomacy failed to resolve the issue.
           | 
           | This is clearly what the war is about: it is what led day by
           | day up to the conflict, Ukraine's president offered to
           | withdraw NATO ambitions as the invasion began to passify it,
           | the Istanbul Peace Agreements early in the war centered on
           | resolving the topic, and the peace discussions now have
           | centered on it.
        
         | _DeadFred_ wrote:
         | Funny Trumps advisor stated one of the options was BOOSTING
         | support for Ukraine to the point Russia was forced to the
         | table. Funny how that option which would be much more aligned
         | with American's past actions, commitments, policy stance, and
         | allies wasn't chosen but this 'predictable' one was, especially
         | by a President that likes to claim he takes action via strength
         | (but chooses this weakening of his sides negotiating position).
        
         | onlypassingthru wrote:
         | > The idea that Russia's economy will collapse is highly
         | unlikely.
         | 
         | Yeah, no way it's collapsing when the central bank rate is at
         | 21%.[0]
         | 
         | Totally unrelated, but might I interest you in a lucrative land
         | opportunity in Florida?
         | 
         | [0]https://apnews.com/article/russia-interest-
         | rates-0fa1d7385be...
        
           | nanotuber wrote:
           | Certainly Russia's economy has difficulties. It has inflation
           | roughly 9-10% and (dangerously low) unemployment around 1%.
           | Russia's Central Bank key rate needs to be extremely high to
           | fight its inflation because it is not as primary a lender as
           | the US Fed for example - there's way more private lending.
           | The inflation is caused by raising labor costs (due to
           | unemployment), supply chain disruptions from sanctions, and
           | weakening of the ruble due to printing of money to fund the
           | war.
           | 
           | Thus far Russia's economy has grown substantially due to the
           | war - expansion of its industrial base. This is factoring
           | inflation in. What's happening right now is that Russian
           | economic growth due to military industry is slowing down, and
           | Russia is not likely to continue growing its economy at near
           | the same rate.
           | 
           | Russia is most likely heading into an era of stagflation
           | (high inflation and low growth). This isn't a collapse of the
           | economy. It's not great, but its not a way to end the war.
           | 
           | One option could be to tank oil prices (into the $40/barrel
           | range, currently $70/barrel range) and keep that for years.
           | Due to Russia's reliance on energy income this would disrupt
           | the Russian budget and it would either need to cut social
           | spending or go into debt (e.g. to China) to continue without
           | shelving social programs.
           | 
           | The point is that the Russian economy isn't on the brink of
           | collapse. Due to the national security nature of a hostile
           | military alliance at its doorstep, it's likely to make hard
           | choices if put into such a situation (e.g. go into debt).
        
             | onlypassingthru wrote:
             | > Due to the national security nature of a hostile military
             | alliance at its doorstep
             | 
             | Finland shares a massive border with Russia and joined NATO
             | almost 2 years ago and what 'hard choices' have been made
             | since? Please, do tell!
        
         | lovich wrote:
         | >The Trump Administration will resume military aid after
         | Ukraine is forced to ceasefire talks.
         | 
         | Bold claim with little evidence
        
         | seanmcdirmid wrote:
         | > An immediate resolution of the war cuts losses: Ukraine loses
         | territory, but keeps its sovereignty.
         | 
         | Only for a year or so. Without the USA in its corner, Ukraine
         | loses sovereignty before Trump is out of office.
        
         | codedokode wrote:
         | Now it is difficult time for negotiations due to Russia being
         | in a favourable position and being able to demand more. While
         | Trump needs to fulfill his promise to "end the war in the first
         | day", Russia doesn't have to hurry although it wants to end the
         | war too (after all, it was supposed to last just several
         | weeks).
         | 
         | A good time for negotiations was in 2022, but it is lost.
         | 
         | > I doubt any peace negotiated will last decades
         | 
         | I think Russia doesn't want the second war like this because it
         | was supposed to last several weeks but ended up lasting several
         | years.
        
       | prewett wrote:
       | While I find the Russian invasion of Ukraine appalling, as a
       | counterpoint to all the "Trump is destroying the US' reputation"
       | mono-point that I've read so far (although I agree with that,
       | too): John Maersheimer [1] gave a great explanation and
       | prediction (~10 years prior) of why the whole thing happened. The
       | US saw Russian weakness, decided to expand NATO to Ukraine, and
       | the Russians said "no way will we let NATO be on our border,
       | we'll destroy Ukraine first". We ignored them because they were
       | weak, and they did what they said they would do. So I'm a little
       | torn, because the situation is unwinnable without a major
       | commitment, which nobody wants to do, and is not even in our
       | interests, since we have a peer-competitor conflict shaping up
       | with China. But our hubris caused the whole situation.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
        
         | genter wrote:
         | Ukraine is an independent country, it was their choice to join
         | NATO.
        
         | tim333 wrote:
         | Just one problem with that amongst many:
         | 
         | Russia has bordered NATO for years. Estonia and Latvia both do
         | and if you count Kaliningrad as Russia then Poland and
         | Lithuania do too.
         | 
         | In common with much stuff Russia comes up with it's just lies
         | to justify their bad behaviour.
        
         | relistan wrote:
         | No. Countries with their own free choice asked to be part of
         | NATO. The US did not push this on them. NATO expansion happened
         | exactly because none of those countries trusted their neighbor
         | Russia, who had previously invaded them and kept them under its
         | thumb for 50 years. Russia is both to blame for the expansion
         | of NATO and Russia's subsequent invasions of Georgia and
         | Ukraine.
        
       | tim333 wrote:
       | Trump no doubt will say this is a negotiating ploy to get
       | Zelensky to make concessions but you have to wonder why all the
       | concessions have to be made by the victim and not the aggressor.
       | Why not ask Putin to pause killing Ukranians or return some of
       | the kidnapped children or some token of goodwill?
        
         | n4r9 wrote:
         | You also have to wonder why Vance was less bothered by Putin
         | not continually saying "please" as he was by Zelenskyy not
         | continually saying "thank you".
        
         | codedokode wrote:
         | Because West has no means to put more pressure on Russia (they
         | cannot even stop buying natural gas), so it has to talk nicely.
         | US cannot demand, for example, that Russia gives them a share
         | of their minerals and generally cannot demand anything.
         | 
         | Actually in hindsight the best time for negotiations was
         | somewhere in end of 2022, but that chance is long gone.
         | 
         | But while West cannot demand, it still can offer (i.e. removing
         | nuclear weapon and US forces from EU etc).
        
           | onlypassingthru wrote:
           | The West absolutely has more means at its disposal, by arming
           | Ukraine to the teeth.
           | 
           | The slow drip of arms has been really effective at degrading
           | Russia (just look at the golf cart brigades and North Korean
           | wave attacks), but an increase in long range capability is
           | what's needed to finish the job.
        
             | codedokode wrote:
             | "arming Ukraine to the teeth" does not guarantee the
             | victory but guarantees more casualties and suffering. To
             | win you also need to have 3x more soldiers which is not the
             | case. West cannot even pay a salary comparable to what
             | Russia pays to its volunteer soldiers.
        
               | onlypassingthru wrote:
               | We can both agree that arming Ukraine with more missiles
               | will guarantee more casualties and suffering... for the
               | Russians.
               | 
               | And in response, Russia will do what exactly? Send more
               | golf cart brigades or more North Koreans? It's not like
               | Russia has enormous military resources they've been
               | keeping as a surprise. No, if Russia could do _anything_
               | differently they would already be doing it to win the
               | 'Special Military Operation'.
        
               | codedokode wrote:
               | Draft more soldiers, for example. Missiles falling on
               | Russian cities will increase motivation to go defend the
               | country.
        
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