[HN Gopher] FAQ on Microsoft's topological qubit thing
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       FAQ on Microsoft's topological qubit thing
        
       Author : ingve
       Score  : 295 points
       Date   : 2025-02-20 07:25 UTC (15 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (scottaaronson.blog)
 (TXT) w3m dump (scottaaronson.blog)
        
       | ABS wrote:
       | money quote:                 "if Microsoft's claim stands, then
       | topological qubits have finally reached some sort of parity with
       | where more traditional qubits were 20-30 years ago. I.e., the
       | non-topological approaches like superconducting, trapped-ion, and
       | neutral-atom have an absolutely massive head start: there,
       | Google, IBM, Quantinuum, QuEra, and other companies now routinely
       | do experiments with dozens or even hundreds of entangled qubits,
       | and thousands of two-qubit gates. Topological qubits can win if,
       | and only if, they turn out to be so much more reliable that they
       | leapfrog the earlier approaches--sort of like the transistor did
       | to the vacuum tube and electromechanical relay. Whether that will
       | happen is still an open question, to put it extremely mildly."
        
         | tromp wrote:
         | The quote that struck me was
         | 
         | > I foresee exciting times ahead, provided we still have a
         | functioning civilization in which to enjoy them.
        
           | gauge_field wrote:
           | If you are shocked by this, I suggest not reading his other
           | recent topics.
        
             | moshun wrote:
             | Spent an hour going through his blog. Wild and unpleasant
             | ride.
        
               | darknavi wrote:
               | The comments section of that blog is truly a wild ride.
        
               | fc417fc802 wrote:
               | As it should be.
               | 
               | > For most of my professional life, this blog has been my
               | forum, where anyone in the world could show up to raise
               | any issue they wanted, as if we were tunic-wearing
               | philosophers in the Athenian agora.
               | 
               | https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6576
        
               | tdb7893 wrote:
               | It's interesting to see someone who seems to describe
               | themself as anti-woke try desperately to convince the
               | generally anti-academic movement to fund academics. Sadly
               | I don't think he'll succeed in this.
               | 
               | I don't agree with many of his posts but I think the blog
               | is interesting in how personal it feels. Often I feel
               | like all media is very cultivated but he seems very
               | willing to put his own anxieties and foibles on the web.
        
               | KerrAvon wrote:
               | FWIW, it's unclear how the NSF ends up. Musk needs
               | scientists to make rockets go. The defense industry needs
               | a broad spectrum of scientists to make all kinds of
               | things happen. Scientists (and especially the schools
               | producing said scientists) need funding to operate, or
               | there will no longer be accredited scientists.
               | 
               | Does Musk understand this? Maybe not. It's not evident so
               | far. He certainly lives in a fictional world of the right
               | wing's devising. Will someone else be able to penetrate
               | that bubble to make him understand it? Will he care if
               | they do? Guess we'll find out.
        
               | HappyPanacea wrote:
               | I found his blog to be candid and well thought out
               | usually
        
             | echelon wrote:
             | > If you are shocked by this, I suggest not reading his
             | other recent topics.
             | 
             | Given that this is Scott Aaronson, does he suggest we'll
             | break cryptography and destroy the foundations of the
             | modern internet?
        
               | vonneumannstan wrote:
               | AI takeover is what he's referencing.
        
               | ameliaquining wrote:
               | Also distress at various political developments.
        
         | fauigerzigerk wrote:
         | There seems to be a bit of a disconnect between the first and
         | the second sentence (to my completely uneducated mind).
         | 
         |  _If_ topological qubits turn out to be so much more reliable
         | then it doesn 't really matter how much time was spent trying
         | to make other types of qubits more reliable. It's not really a
         | head start, is it?
         | 
         | Or are there other problems besides preventing unwanted
         | decoherence that might take that much time to solve?
        
           | tsimionescu wrote:
           | The point I think is this: if topological qubits are similar
           | to other types of qubits, then investing in them is going to
           | be disappointing because the other approaches have so much
           | more work put into them.
           | 
           | So, he is saying that this approach will only pay off if
           | topological qubits are a fundamentally better approach than
           | the others being tried. If they turn out to be, say, merely
           | twice as good as trapped ion qubits, they'll still only get
           | to the achievements of current trapped ion designs with
           | another, say, 10-15 years of continued investment.
        
             | adastra22 wrote:
             | The whole point though is that they are step function
             | better than traditional qubits, in a way that is simply a
             | type error to compare.
             | 
             | The utility of traditional qubits depends entirely on how
             | reliable and long-lived they are, and how to can scale to
             | larger numbers of qubits. These topological qubits are
             | effectively 100% reliable, infinite duration, and scale
             | like semiconductors. According to the marketing literature,
             | at least...
        
               | pclmulqdq wrote:
               | All the other qubits scaled the same way when they were
               | in a simulator, too. When they actually hit reality, they
               | all had huge problems.
        
               | adastra22 wrote:
               | Other qubits in general do not scale the same way. Some
               | for example do not allow arbitrary point-to-point
               | interactions, which means doubling your physical qubits
               | doesn't double your number of logical qubits. There are
               | other ways in which scaling was sometimes nonlinear.
               | 
               | Note also that this isn't a simulated result. Microsoft
               | has an 8-qubit chip they are making available on Azure.
        
               | pclmulqdq wrote:
               | I am well aware of how other qubits scale, but I am also
               | aware that the physicists who created them didn't expect
               | decoherence to scale this rapidly at the time they took
               | that approach.
               | 
               | IBM sells you 400 qubits with huge coherence problems.
               | When IBM had an 8-qubit chip, they were also pretty
               | stable.
        
               | radioactivist wrote:
               | There are caveats there too. Generally topological qubits
               | _can_ be immune to all kinds of noise (i.e. built-in
               | error correction) but Majorana zero modes aren 't exact
               | the right kind of topological for that to be true. They
               | only enjoy protection on most operations, but not all. So
               | there is a still a need for error correction here (and
               | all the complication that entails) it is just hopefully
               | less onerous since only essentially one operation
               | requires it.
        
         | nprateem wrote:
         | Yeah I mean that's exactly what MS are talking about, only
         | requiring 1/20 of the checksum qubits or something.
         | 
         | https://www.ft.com/content/a60f44f5-81ca-4e66-8193-64c956b09...
        
           | ABS wrote:
           | what Microsoft claim in their marketing copy reported by the
           | FT - for the average reader - and what a third-party, well-
           | known expert in the field thinks... are on very different
           | levels AFAIC
           | 
           | Microsoft is saying: we did it!
           | 
           | Everyone else is saying: prove it!
        
             | nprateem wrote:
             | Yes, that's why we read decent journalism that includes the
             | opinions of experts. MS are still saying production use is
             | pretty far off.
        
               | ABS wrote:
               | except we don't need opinions, we need proof and that is
               | what we are lacking.
               | 
               | The only expert in the FT article is Dr. Sankar Das Sarma
               | who (from Wikipedia)                 "In collaboration
               | with Chetan Nayak and Michael Freedman of Microsoft
               | Research, Das Sarma introduced the n = 5 / 2 topological
               | qubit in 2005"
               | 
               | So you might understand why this FT article is not adding
               | anything to the discussion, which does not discuss the
               | theory but rather MS's claim of an actual breakthrough.
               | 
               | They show a chip, we'd like proof of what the chip
               | actually does
        
       | ggm wrote:
       | I enjoy the quality of "it's too early to say" in Aaronson's
       | writing. It won't stop share price movement or hopeless optimism
       | amongst others.
       | 
       | I do wonder if he is running a simple 1st order differential on
       | his own beliefs. He certainly has the chops here, and self
       | introspection on the trajectory of highs and lows and the trends
       | would interest me.
        
       | blablabla123 wrote:
       | This seems quite a bold claim that Microsoft proofed that
       | Neutrinos are Majorana particles...
        
         | eigenspace wrote:
         | Huh? This has nothing to do with neutrinos.
        
           | blablabla123 wrote:
           | The chip is literally called Microsoft Majorana 1
           | 
           | Indeed Majorana fermions are completely unseen/unconsidered
           | outside of Neutrinos. In fact all Standard Model fermions
           | except Neutrinos are proven to be Dirac fermions
        
             | eigenket wrote:
             | The Majorana particles in Microsoft's set-up are "quasi-
             | particles". They aren't really fundamental particles, but
             | excitations in the system which behave (roughly, in some
             | appropriate sense) like particles. They aren't neutrinos.
        
               | blablabla123 wrote:
               | Quite confusing though
               | 
               | > "There's no slam dunk to know immediately from the
               | experiment" that the qubits are made of topological
               | states, says Simon. (A claim of having created Majorana
               | states made by a Microsoft-funded team based in Delft,
               | The Netherlands, was retracted in 2021.) The ultimate
               | proof will come if the devices perform as expected once
               | they are scaled up, he adds.
               | 
               | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00527-z
        
               | eigenket wrote:
               | I'm not sure what that has to do with my previous comment
               | but yeah, pushing the boundaries of science is kinda
               | difficult and you can make mistakes.
               | 
               | My understanding is that they pretty convincingly showed
               | that the thing they built acts as a qubit. This means
               | that if its not doing what they think its doing (the
               | "topological" / Majorana stuff) then they accidentally
               | made a qubit which works some other way. That isn't
               | outside the realm of possibility but it is fairly
               | unlikely.
        
             | terminalbraid wrote:
             | You are confusing quasiparticles with fundamental
             | particles. If we were to observe a Majorana topological
             | state, this would have no bearing on the properties of the
             | neutrino.
             | 
             | Also to say Majorana fermions are not considered outside of
             | neutrinos is a patently ridiculous and ignorant statement.
             | There is absolutely nothing in physics to say the only
             | particle that can possibly be Majorana is a neutrino. For
             | example, there have been theories of Majorana dark matter
             | _which are a consideration of fundamental Majorana
             | particles outside of neutrinos_.
        
       | dang wrote:
       | Recent and related:
       | 
       |  _Microsoft unveils Majorana 1 quantum processor_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43104071 - Feb 2025 (150
       | comments)
        
       | librasteve wrote:
       | topological analytics shows that under like-like exchanges
       | multiple distinct pathways exist in 2D (in 3D topology does not
       | have distinct pathways for these exchanges). this permits real
       | anyon particles to exist when the physics is confined to 2D
       | within quantum limits such as in a layer of graphene. certain
       | configurations of layers ("moire materials") can be made periodic
       | to provide a suitable scale lattice for anyons to localize and
       | adopt particular quantum states
       | 
       | anyons lie somewhere between fermions and bosons in their state
       | occupancy and statistics - no 2 fermions may occupy the same
       | state, bosons can all occupy the same state, anyons follow
       | rational number patterns eg up to 2 anyons can occupy 3 states
        
       | jokoon wrote:
       | I wonder if this means that ai will have more capabilities with
       | quantum computing.
       | 
       | So far, I haven't read how those chips are programmed, but it
       | seems like it requires to re learn almost everything.
       | 
       | I don't even know if there is an OS for those.
        
         | eigenket wrote:
         | There is not an "OS" or anything even remotely like it. For now
         | these things behave more like physics experiments than
         | computers.
         | 
         | You can play around with "quantum programming" through (e.g.)
         | some of IBM's offerings and there has been work on quantum
         | programming languages like q# from Microsoft but its unclear
         | (to me) how useful these are.
        
         | ABS wrote:
         | that's not the way to think about quantum computing AFAIK.
         | 
         | Think of these as accelerators you use to run some specific
         | algorithm the result of which your "normal" application uses.
         | 
         | More akin to GPUs: your "normal" applications running on
         | "normal" CPUs offload some specific computation to the GPU and
         | then use the result.
        
         | tsimionescu wrote:
         | So far, the only known algorithm relevant to AI that would run
         | faster on a theoretical quantum computer is linear search,
         | where quantum computers offer a modest speedup (linear search
         | is O(n) on a classical computer, while Grover's algorithm is
         | O(sqrt(n)) for quantum computers - this means that for a list
         | of a million elements, you can scan it in 1 000 steps on a
         | quantum computer instead of 1 000 000 steps on a classical
         | one).
         | 
         | However, even this is extremely theoretical at this time - no
         | quantum computer built so far can execute Grover's algorithm,
         | they are not reliable enough to get any result with probability
         | higher than noise, and anyway can't apply the amount of steps
         | required for even a single pass without losing entanglement. So
         | we are still very very very far away from a quantum computer
         | that could reach anything like the computing performance of a
         | single consumer-grade GPU. We're actually very far away from a
         | quantum computer that even reaches the performance of a hand
         | calculator at this time.
        
           | cognaitiv wrote:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_optimization_algorithm.
           | ..
        
           | cognaitiv wrote:
           | Pure Quantum Gradient Descent Algorithm and Full Quantum
           | Variational Eigensolver https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.04198
        
         | JPLeRouzic wrote:
         | > " _an OS for those_ "
         | 
         | Or at least an OS driver for the devices supporting quantum
         | computing if/when they become more standard.
        
       | K0balt wrote:
       | I think what many people are missing in the discussion here is
       | that topological qbits are essentially a different type of
       | component. This is analogous to relay-triode-transistor
       | technology progression.
       | 
       | It is speculation still whether the top-q approach will be
       | effective, but there are significant implications if it is.
       | Scalability, reliability, and speed are all significant aspects
       | on the table here.
       | 
       | While other technologies have a significant head start, much of
       | the "head start" is transferrable knowledge, similar to the
       | relay-triode-transistor-integrated circuit progression. Each new
       | component type multiplies the effectiveness of the advances made
       | by the previous generation of technologies, it doesn't start
       | over.
       | 
       | IF the topological qubits can be made to be reliable and they
       | live up to their scalability promises, it COULD be a
       | revolutionary step, enabling exponential gains in cost,
       | scalability, and capability. IF.
        
       | eliovi wrote:
       | A bit off topic - I really like Scott Aaronson and his blog, but
       | hate the comment section - he engages a lot with the comments
       | (which is great!) but it's really hard to follow, as each comment
       | is presented as a new message.
       | 
       | I made this small silly chrome extension to re-structure the
       | comments to a more readable format - if anyone is interested
       | 
       | https://github.com/eliovi/shtetl-comment-optimized
        
         | throw_pm23 wrote:
         | I find the opposite, he often makes some ridiculous claim in
         | the post, the comments (the ones he lets through) rightfully
         | point out how wrong he was, then he cherry-picks and engages
         | one of the more outrageous comments, so a superficial observer
         | is left with the impression that the original claim was OK.
        
       | api wrote:
       | I had a thought while reading this:
       | 
       | Are we, in fact, in the very early stages of gradient descent
       | toward what I want to call "software defined matter?"
       | 
       | If we're learning to make programmable quantum physics
       | experiments and use them to do work, what is that the _very
       | beginning_ of? Imagine, say, 300 years from now.
        
         | pyinstallwoes wrote:
         | TVs : displays already are software defined matter. But ya.
        
       | pyinstallwoes wrote:
       | Hey anyons 2D electron gas. Wrote about it a while ago and get
       | downvoted!
        
       | mehulashah wrote:
       | We should celebrate this for what it is: another brick in the
       | wall that we're building to achieve practical quantum computing
       | systems.
        
         | throw_pm23 wrote:
         | Yes, just like putting two bricks onto each other is a first
         | step to the moon.
        
         | ameliaquining wrote:
         | That's the best-case scenario. It remains possible that
         | topological qubits, even if they are theoretically achievable,
         | will turn out to be a dead end engineeringwise. Presumably
         | competing quantum computing labs think this is likely, since
         | they're not working on topological qubits; only Microsoft
         | thinks they'll end up being important.
        
       | tim333 wrote:
       | I remain curious if you can actually calculate anything with
       | these gadgets? I mean can it add 2 and 2 or work out the factors
       | of 30 or anything?
        
         | advisedwang wrote:
         | This experiment only created one qubit, so no.
         | 
         | The experiment with lots of qubits... technically yes they can
         | do things. I think the factoring record is 21. But you might be
         | disappointed a) when you see that most algorithms using quantum
         | computers require conventional computational to transform the
         | problem before and after the quantum steps b) when you learn we
         | only have a few quantum algorithms, the are not general
         | calculation machines and c) when you look under the hood and
         | see that the error correcting stuff makes it actually kinda
         | hard to tell how much is really being done by the actual
         | quantum device.
        
           | tim333 wrote:
           | Thanks for the reply. I've always been a bit puzzled from my
           | limited knowledge of quantum mechanics as to how they are
           | supposed to work. I mean you make a measurement on a quantum
           | system and sure the probability amplitude is the result of
           | adding up all sorts of possible paths but you still only get
           | the one measurement out which I'm not sure how that's
           | supposed to tell you much. All a bit beyond me.
        
             | jiacobucci00 wrote:
             | you typically have to sample multiple times until you can
             | build up the distribution that you can convert to a
             | solution to your problem.
        
             | ameliaquining wrote:
             | Does https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=208 help?
             | 
             | (Also, the factoring-21 result is from 2012, and may have
             | been surpassed since then depending on how you count.
             | Recent quantum-computing research has focused less on
             | factoring numbers and more on problems like random circuit
             | sampling where it's easier to get meaningful results with
             | the noisy intermediate-scale machines we have today.
             | Factoring is hard mode because you have to get it exactly
             | right or else it's no good at all.)
        
       | strangeloops85 wrote:
       | A very important statement is in the peer review file that
       | everyone should read:
       | 
       | "The editorial team wishes to point out that the results in this
       | manuscript do not represent evidence for the presence of Majorana
       | zero modes in the reported devices. The work is published for
       | introducing a device architecture that might enable fusion
       | experiments using future Majorana zero modes."
       | 
       | https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs415...
        
         | throw_pm23 wrote:
         | Another recent writeup that adds some nuance to this (and other
         | claims), summarizing the quantum-skeptic positions:
         | 
         | https://gilkalai.wordpress.com/2025/02/17/robert-alicki-mich...
        
           | ameliaquining wrote:
           | I think that Kalai here is very seriously understating how
           | fringe/contrarian his views are. He's not merely stating that
           | there's too much optimism about potential future results, or
           | that there's some kind of intractable theoretical or
           | practical bottleneck that we'll soon reach and won't be able
           | to overcome. He's saying that _any_ kind of quantum advantage
           | --a thing that numerous experiments, from different labs in
           | academia and industry, using a wide variety of approaches,
           | have demonstrated over the past decade--is impossible, and
           | therefore all of those experimental results were wrong and
           | need to be retracted. His position was scientifically
           | respectable back when the possibility he was denying _hadn 't
           | actually happened yet_, but I don't think it is anymore.
        
         | gsf_emergency_2 wrote:
         | As the recent results from CS and math on the front pages have
         | shown, one doesn't have to be unknown or underfunded in order
         | to produce verifiable breakthroughs, but it might help..
         | 
         | Seems like John Baez didn't notice those lines in the peer
         | review either
         | 
         | https://mathstodon.xyz/@johncarlosbaez/114031919391285877
         | 
         | TIL: read the peer review first
        
         | samr71 wrote:
         | Wait so this tech just...doesn't work yet? Like at all?
        
           | throw_pm23 wrote:
           | It's worse, it will (likely) never work at all.
        
           | ameliaquining wrote:
           | Microsoft claims that it works. However, the Nature reviewers
           | apparently do not yet feel comfortable vouching for this
           | claim.
        
       | samr71 wrote:
       | Other than fast factorization and linear search, is there
       | anything that Quantum Computing can do? Those do seem important,
       | but limited in scope - is this a solution in search of a problem?
       | 
       | I've heard it could get us very accurate high-detail physics
       | simulations, which has potential, but don't know if that's legit
       | or marketing BS.
        
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