[HN Gopher] Accelerating scientific breakthroughs with an AI co-...
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       Accelerating scientific breakthroughs with an AI co-scientist
        
       Author : Jimmc414
       Score  : 231 points
       Date   : 2025-02-19 14:32 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (research.google)
 (TXT) w3m dump (research.google)
        
       | Jimmc414 wrote:
       | paper:
       | https://storage.googleapis.com/coscientist_paper/ai_coscient...
        
       | mnky9800n wrote:
       | Tbh I don't see why I would use this. I don't need an ai to
       | connect across ideas or come up with new hypothesis. I need it to
       | write lots of data pipeline code to take data that is organized
       | by project, each in a unique way, each with its own set of
       | multimodal data plus metadata all stored in long form documents
       | with no regular formatting, and normalize it all into a giant
       | database. I need it to write and test a data pipeline to detect
       | events both in amplitude space and frequency space in acoustic
       | data. I need it to test out front ends for these data analysis
       | backends so i can play with the data. Like I think this is domain
       | specific. Probably drug discovery requires testing tons of
       | variables one by one iterating through the values available. But
       | that's not true for my research. But not everything is for
       | everybody and that's okay.
        
         | not_kurt_godel wrote:
         | Agreed - AI that could take care of this sort of cross-system
         | complexity and automation in a reliable way would be actually
         | useful. Unfortunately I've yet to use an AI that can reliably
         | handle even moderately complex text parsing in a single file
         | more easily than if I'd just done it myself from the start.
        
           | mnky9800n wrote:
           | Yes. It's very frustrating. Like there is a great need for a
           | kind of data pipeline test suite where you can iterate
           | through lots of different options and play around with
           | different data manipulations so a single person can do it.
           | Because it's not worth it to really build it if it doesn't
           | work. There needs to be one of these
           | astronomer/dagster/apache airflow/azure ml tools that are
           | quick and dirty to try things out. Maybe I'm just naive and
           | they exist and I've had my nose in Jupyter notebooks. But I
           | really feel hindered these days in my ability to prototype
           | complex data pipelines myself while also considering all of
           | the other parts of the science.
        
         | SubiculumCode wrote:
         | The doing tends to be the hard part. Every scientist has 1000
         | idea for every one they get a chance to pursue.
         | 
         | That said, I requested early access.
        
         | parineum wrote:
         | > I don't need an ai to connect across ideas or come up with
         | new hypothesis.
         | 
         | This feels like hubris to me. The idea here isn't to assist you
         | with menial tasks, the idea is to give you an AI generalist
         | that might ne able to alert you to things outside of your field
         | that may be related to your work. It's not going to reduce your
         | workload, in fact, it'll probably increase it but the result
         | should be better science.
         | 
         | I have a lot more faith in this use of LLMs than I do for it to
         | do actual work. This would just guide you to speak with another
         | expert in a different field and then you take it from there.
         | 
         | > In many fields, this presents a breadth and depth conundrum,
         | since it is challenging to navigate the rapid growth in the
         | rate of scientific publications while integrating insights from
         | unfamiliar domains.
        
           | ttpphd wrote:
           | Are you a scientist?
        
             | OutOfHere wrote:
             | It is obvious that scientists are afraid for their job,
             | that mere lab technicians will now be sufficient.
        
               | ttpphd wrote:
               | Witness the pure arrogance of tech bros
        
               | goatlover wrote:
               | Sure, as soon as managers replace software engineers by
               | spending their working hours prompting LLMs.
        
           | iak8god wrote:
           | > the idea is to give you an AI generalist that might ne able
           | to alert you to things outside of your field that may be
           | related to your work
           | 
           | That might be a good goal. It doesn't seem to be the goal of
           | this project.
        
           | coliveira wrote:
           | > This feels like hubris to me.
           | 
           | No, any scientist has hundreds of ideas they would like to
           | test. It's just part of the job. The hard thing is to do the
           | rigorous testing itself.
        
             | the_snooze wrote:
             | >The hard thing is to do the rigorous testing itself.
             | 
             | This. Rigorous testing is _hard_ and it requires a high
             | degree of intuition and intellectual humility. When I 'm
             | evaluating something as part of my resaerch, I'm constantly
             | asking: "Am I asking the right questions?" "Am I looking at
             | the right metrics?" "Are the results noisy, to what extent,
             | and how much does it matter?" and "Am I introducing
             | confounding effects?" It's really hard to do this at scale
             | and quickly. It necessarily requires slow measured thought,
             | which computers really can't help with.
        
           | mnky9800n wrote:
           | I have a billion ideas, being able to automate the testing of
           | those ideas in some kind of Star Trek talk to the computer
           | and it just knows what you want way would be perfect. This is
           | the promise of ai. This is the promise of a personal
           | computer. It is a bicycle for your mind. It is not hubris to
           | want to be able to iterate more quickly on your own ideas. It
           | is a natural part of being a tool building species.
        
         | anothermathbozo wrote:
         | Imagine someone can do the things you can't do and needs help
         | doing the things you can.
        
         | tippytippytango wrote:
         | Exactly, they want to automate the most rewarding part that we
         | don't need help with... plus I don't believe they've solved the
         | problem of LLMs generating trite ideas.
        
           | trilobyte wrote:
           | Sounds like the message artists were giving when generative
           | AI started blowing up.
        
         | eamag wrote:
         | I think you're just not the target audience. If AI can come up
         | with some _good_ ideas and then split it into tasks some of
         | them an undergrad can do - it can speed up the global research
         | speed by involving more people in useful science
        
           | coliveira wrote:
           | In science, having ideas is not the limiting factor. They're
           | just automating the wrong thing. I want to have ideas and ask
           | the machine to test for me, not the other way around.
        
             | eamag wrote:
             | The difference is the complexity of ideas. There are
             | straightforward ideas anyone can test and improve, and
             | there are ideas where only PhDs in CERN can test
        
               | JW_00000 wrote:
               | I don't think that's really right. E.g. what makes
               | finding the Higgs boson difficult is that you need to
               | build a really large collider, not coming up with the
               | idea, which could be done 50 years earlier. Admittedly
               | the Higgs boson is still a "complex idea", but the
               | bottleneck still was the actual testing.
        
       | crypto420 wrote:
       | I'm not sure if people here even read the entirety of the
       | article. From the article:
       | 
       | > We applied the AI co-scientist to assist with the prediction of
       | drug repurposing opportunities and, with our partners, validated
       | predictions through computational biology, expert clinician
       | feedback, and in vitro experiments.
       | 
       | > Notably, the AI co-scientist proposed novel repurposing
       | candidates for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Subsequent
       | experiments validated these proposals, confirming that the
       | suggested drugs inhibit tumor viability at clinically relevant
       | concentrations in multiple AML cell lines.
       | 
       | and,
       | 
       | > For this test, expert researchers instructed the AI co-
       | scientist to explore a topic that had already been subject to
       | novel discovery in their group, but had not yet been revealed in
       | the public domain, namely, to explain how capsid-forming phage-
       | inducible chromosomal islands (cf-PICIs) exist across multiple
       | bacterial species. The AI co-scientist system independently
       | proposed that cf-PICIs interact with diverse phage tails to
       | expand their host range. This in silico discovery, which had been
       | experimentally validated in the original novel laboratory
       | experiments performed prior to use of the AI co-scientist system,
       | are described in co-timed manuscripts (1, 2) with our
       | collaborators at the Fleming Initiative and Imperial College
       | London. This illustrates the value of the AI co-scientist system
       | as an assistive technology, as it was able to leverage decades of
       | research comprising all prior open access literature on this
       | topic.
       | 
       | The model was able to come up with new scientific hypotheses that
       | were tested to be correct in the lab, which is quite significant.
        
         | preston4tw wrote:
         | This is one thing I've been wondering about AI: will its broad
         | training enable it to uncover previously covered connections
         | between areas the way multi-disciplinary people tend to, or
         | will it still miss them because it's still limited to its
         | training corpus and can't really infer.
         | 
         | If it ends up being more the case that AI can help us discover
         | new stuff, that's very optimistic.
        
           | semi-extrinsic wrote:
           | In some sense, AI should be the most capable at doing this
           | within math. Literally the entire domain in its entirety can
           | be tokenized. There are no experiments required to verify
           | anything, just theorem-lemma-proof ad nauseam.
           | 
           | Doing this like in this test, it's very tricky to rule out
           | the hypothesis that the AI is just combining statements from
           | the Discussion / Future Outlook sections of some previous
           | work in the field.
        
         | blacksmith_tb wrote:
         | Not that I don't think there's a lot of potential in this
         | approach, but the leukemia example seemed at least poorly-
         | worded, "the suggested drugs inhibit tumor viability" reads
         | oddly given that blood cancers don't form tumors?
        
           | klipt wrote:
           | Health professionals often refer to leukemia and lymphoma as
           | "liquid tumors"
        
           | drgo wrote:
           | Lots of blood cancers form solid tumors (e.g., in lymph
           | nodes)
        
         | terminalbraid wrote:
         | I expect it's going to be reasonably useful with the "stamp
         | collecting" part of science and not so much with the rest.
        
         | shpongled wrote:
         | That a UPR inhibitor would inhibit viability of AML cell lines
         | is not exactly a novel scientific hypothesis. They took a
         | previously published inhibitor known to be active in other cell
         | lines and tried it in a new one. It's a cool, undergrad-level
         | experiment. I would be impressed if a sophomore in high school
         | proposed it, but not a sophomore in college.
        
           | klipt wrote:
           | Only two years since chatGPT was released and AI at the level
           | of "impressive high school sophomore" is already blase.
        
             | thomastjeffery wrote:
             | Sure, but is it more impressive than _books_?
        
             | directevolve wrote:
             | Most people here know little to nothing of biomedical
             | research. Explaining clearly why this isn't a
             | scientifically interesting result is helpful.
        
             | rtkwe wrote:
             | Suggesting "maybe try this known inhibitor in other cell
             | lines" isn't exactly novel information though. It'd be more
             | impressive and useful if it hadn't had any published
             | information about working as a cancer inhibitor before.
             | People are blase about it because it's not really beating
             | the allegations that it's just a very fancy parrot when the
             | highlight of it's achievements is to say try this known
             | inhibitor with these other cell lines, decent odds that the
             | future work sections of papers on the drug already
             | suggested trying on other lines too...
        
               | baq wrote:
               | A couple years ago even suggesting that a computer could
               | propose anything at all was sci-fi. Today a computer read
               | the whole internet, suggested a place to look at and
               | experiments to perform and... 'not impressive enough'.
               | Oof.
        
               | Workaccount2 wrote:
               | People are facing existential dread that the knowledge
               | they worked years for is possibly about to become worth a
               | $20 monthly subscription. People will downplay it for
               | years no matter what.
        
             | Nevermark wrote:
             | Especially when you consider the artificial impressive high
             | school sophomore is capable of having impressive high
             | school sophomore ideas across and between an incredibly
             | broad spectrum of domains.
             | 
             | And that their generation of impressive high school
             | sophomore ideas is faster, more reliable, communicated
             | better, and can continue 24/7 (given matching
             | collaboration), relative to their bio high school sophomore
             | counterparts.
             | 
             | I don't believe any natural high school sophomore as
             | impressive on those terms, has ever existed. Not close.
             | 
             | We humans (I include myself) are awful at judging things or
             | people accurately (in even a loose sense) across more than
             | one or two dimensions.
             | 
             | This is especially true when the mix of ability across
             | several dimensions is novel.
             | 
             | (I also think people under estimate the degree that we, as
             | users and "commanders" of AI, bottleneck their potential. I
             | don't suggest they are ready to operate without us. But
             | that our relative lack of energy, persistence & focus all
             | limit what we get from them in those dimensions, hiding
             | significant value.
             | 
             | We famously do this with each other, so not surprising. But
             | worth keeping in mind when judging limits: whose limits are
             | we really seeing.)
        
               | howenterprisey wrote:
               | I don't need high school level ideas, though. If people
               | do, that's good for them, but I haven't met any. And if
               | the quality of the ideas is going to improve in future
               | years, that's good too, but also not demonstrated here.
        
               | Nevermark wrote:
               | I am going to argue that you do. Then I will be
               | interested in your response, if you feel inclined.
               | 
               | We all have our idiosyncratically distributed areas of
               | high intuition, expertise and fluency.
               | 
               | None of us need apprentice level help there, except to
               | delegate something routine.
               | 
               | Lower quality ideas there would just gum things up.
               | 
               | And then we all have vast areas of increasingly lesser
               | familiarity.
               | 
               | I find, that the more we grow our strong areas, the more
               | those areas benefit with as efficient contact as possible
               | with as many more other areas as possible. In both
               | trivial and deeper ways.
               | 
               | The better developer I am, in terms of development skill,
               | tool span, novel problem recognition and solution vision,
               | the more often and valuable I find quick AI tutelage on
               | other topics, trivial or non-trivial.
               | 
               | If you know a bright high school student highly familiar
               | with a domain that you are not, but have reason to think
               | that area might be helpful, don't you think instant
               | access to talk things over with that high schooler would
               | be valuable?
               | 
               | Instant non-trivial answers, perspective and suggestions?
               | With your context and motivations taken into account?
               | 
               | Multiplied by a million bright high school students over
               | a million domains.
               | 
               | --
               | 
               | We can project the capability vector of these models onto
               | one dimension, like "school level idea quality". But
               | lower dimension projections are literally shadows of the
               | whole.
               | 
               | It if we use them in the direction of their total ability
               | vector ( _and given they can iterate, it is actually a
               | compounding eigenvector!_ ) and their value goes way
               | beyond "a human high schooler with ideas".
               | 
               | It does take time to get the most out of a differently
               | calibrated tool.
        
           | CaptainOfCoit wrote:
           | > I would be impressed if a sophomore in high school proposed
           | it
           | 
           | That sounds good enough for a start, considering you can
           | massively parallelize the AI co-scientist workflow, compared
           | to the timescale and physical scale it would take to do the
           | same thing with human high school sophomores.
           | 
           | And every now and then, you get something exciting and really
           | beneficial coming from even inexperienced people, so if you
           | can increase the frequency of that, that sounds good too.
        
             | shpongled wrote:
             | We don't need an army of high school sophomores, unless
             | they are in the lab pipetting. The expensive part of drug
             | discovery is _not_ the ideation phase, it is the time and
             | labor spent running experiments and synthesizing analogues.
        
               | Teever wrote:
               | It sounds like you're suggesting that we need machines
               | that mass produce things like automated pipetting
               | machines and the robots that glue those sorts of machines
               | together.
        
               | 11101010001100 wrote:
               | This exists, but does not require AI, so there is no
               | hype.
        
               | shpongled wrote:
               | They already exist, and we use them. They are not cheap
               | though!
        
               | Teever wrote:
               | Any idea why they're they so expensive?
        
               | shpongled wrote:
               | There is a big range in both automation capabilities and
               | prices.
               | 
               | We have a couple automation systems that are semi-custom
               | - the robot can handle operation of highly specific, non-
               | standard instruments that 99.9% of labs aren't running.
               | Systems have to handle very accurate pipetting of small
               | volumes (microliters), moving plates to different
               | stations, heating, shaking, tracking barcodes, dispensing
               | and racking fresh pipette tips, etc. Different
               | protocols/experiments and workflows can require vastly
               | different setups.
               | 
               | See something like:
               | 
               | [1] https://www.hamiltoncompany.com/automated-liquid-
               | handling/pl...
               | 
               | [2] https://www.revvity.com/product/fontus-lh-
               | standard-8-96-ruo-...
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | I've built microscopes intended to be installed inside
               | workcells similar to what companies like Transcriptic
               | built (https://www.transcriptic.com/). So my scope could
               | be automated by the workcell automation components (robot
               | arms, motors, conveyors, etc).
               | 
               | When I demo'd my scope (which is similar to a 3d printer,
               | using low-cost steppers and other hobbyist-grade
               | components) the CEO gave me feedback which was very
               | educational. They couldn't build a system that used my
               | style of components because a failure due to a component
               | would bring the whole system down and require an
               | expensive service call (along with expensive downtime for
               | the user). Instead, their mech engineer would select
               | extremely high quality components that had a very low
               | probability of failure to minimize service calls and
               | other expensive outages.
               | 
               | Unfortunately, the cost curve for reliability not pretty,
               | to reduce mechanical failures to close to zero costs
               | close to infinity dollars.
               | 
               | One of the reasons Google's book scanning was so scalable
               | was their choice to build fairly simple, cheap, easy to
               | maintain machines, and then build a lot of them, and
               | train the scanning individuals to work with those
               | machines quirks. Just like their clusters, they tolerate
               | a much higher failure rate and build all sorts of
               | engineering solutions where other groups would just buy 1
               | expensive device with a service contract.
        
               | kridsdale1 wrote:
               | That's similar to how Google won in distributed systems.
               | They used cheap PCs in shipping containers when everyone
               | else was buying huge expensive SUN etc servers.
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | yes, and that's the reason I went to work at google: to
               | get access to their distributed systems and use ML to
               | scale up biology. I never was able to join Google
               | Research and do the work I wanted (but DeepMind went
               | ahead and solved protein structure prediction, so, the
               | job got done anyway).
        
               | shpongled wrote:
               | They really didn't solve it. AF works great for proteins
               | that have a homologous protein with a crystal structure.
               | It is absolutely useless for proteins with no published
               | structure to use as a template - e.g. many of the
               | undrugged cancer targets in existence.
        
               | jiggawatts wrote:
               | This sounds like it could be centralised, a bit like the
               | clouds in the IT world. A low failure rate of 1-3% is
               | comparable to servers in a rack, but if you have
               | thousands of them, then this is just a statistic and not
               | a servicing issue. Several hyperscalers simply leave
               | failed nodes where they are, it's not worth the bother to
               | service them!
               | 
               | Maybe the next startup idea is biochemistry as a service,
               | centralised to a large lab facility with hundreds of each
               | device, maintained by a dedicated team of on-site
               | professionals.
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | None of the companies that proposed this concept have
               | managed to demonstrate strong marketplace viability. A
               | lot of discovery science remains extremely manual,
               | artisinal, and vehemently opposed to automation.
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | Replacing a skilled technician is remarkably challenging.
               | Often times, when you automate this, you just end up
               | wasting a ton of resources rather than accelerating
               | discovery. Often, simply integrating devices from several
               | vendors (or even one vendor) takes months.
        
               | petra wrote:
               | So pharmaceutical research is largely an engineering
               | problem, of running experiments and synthesizing
               | molecules as fast, cheap and accurate as possible ?
        
               | shpongled wrote:
               | I wouldn't say it's an engineering problem. Biology and
               | pharmacology are very complex with lots of curveballs,
               | and each experiment is often different and not done
               | enough to warrant full engineering-scale optimization
               | (although this is sometimes the case!).
        
               | kridsdale1 wrote:
               | It also seems to be a financial problem of getting VC
               | funds to run trials to appease regulators. Even if you've
               | already seen results in a lab or other country.
        
               | devmor wrote:
               | This is the general problem with nearly all of this era
               | of generative AI and why the public dislike it so much.
               | 
               | It is trained on human prose; human prose is primarily a
               | representation of ideas; it synthesizes ideas.
               | 
               | There are very few uses for a machine to create ideas. We
               | have a wealth of ideas and people enjoy coming up with
               | ideas. It's a solution built for a problem that does not
               | exist.
        
               | falcor84 wrote:
               | As discussed elsewhere, Deepmind are also working on
               | extending Alphafold to simulate biochemical pathways and
               | then looking to tackle whole-cell simulation. It's not
               | quite pipetting, but this sort of AI scientist would
               | likely be paired with the simulation environment
               | (essentially as function calling), to allow for very
               | rapid iteration of in-silico research.
        
           | dekhn wrote:
           | (to be Shpongled is to be kippered, mashed, smashed,
           | destroyed...completely geschtonkenflopped)
        
           | hinkley wrote:
           | I have a less generous recollection of the wisdom of
           | sophomores.
        
         | xbmcuser wrote:
         | Similar stuff is being done for material sciences where AI
         | suggest different combinations to find different properties. So
         | when people say AI(machine learning, LLM) are just for show I
         | am a bit shocked as AI's today have accelerated discoveries in
         | many different fields of science and this is just the start.
         | Anna archive probably will play a huge role in this as no human
         | or even a group of humans will have all the knowledge of so
         | many fields that an Ai will have.
         | 
         | https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/super-diamond-b26...
        
           | fhd2 wrote:
           | It's a matter of perspective and expectations.
           | 
           | The automobile was a useful invention. I don't know if back
           | then there was a lot of hype around how it can do anything a
           | horse can do, but better. People might have complained about
           | how it can't come to you when called, can't traverse stairs,
           | or whatever.
           | 
           | It could do _one_ thing a horse could do better: Pull stuff
           | on a straight surface. Doing just one thing better is
           | evidently valuable.
           | 
           | I think AI is valuable from that perspective, you provide a
           | good example there. I might well be disappointed if I would
           | expect it to be better than humans at anything humans can do.
           | It doesn't have to. But with wording like "co-scientist", I
           | see where that comes from.
        
           | bjarlsson wrote:
           | What does this cited article have to do with AI? Unless I'm
           | missing something the researchers devised a novel method to
           | create a material that was known since 1967.
        
         | hirenj wrote:
         | I read the cf-PICI paper (abstract) and the hypothesis from the
         | AI co-scientist. While the mechanism from the actual paper is
         | pretty cool (if I'm understanding it correctly), I'm not
         | particularly impressed with the hypothesis from the co-
         | scientist.
         | 
         | It's quite a natural next step to take to consider the tails
         | and binding partners to them, so much so that it's probably
         | what I would have done and I have a background of about 20
         | minutes in this particular area. If the co-scientist had
         | hypothesised the novel mechanism to start with, then I would be
         | impressed at the intelligence of it. I would bet that there
         | were enough hints towards these next steps in the discussion
         | sections of the referenced papers anyway.
         | 
         | What's a bit suspicious is in the Supplementary Information,
         | around where the hypothesis is laid out, it says "In addition,
         | our own preliminary data indicate that cf-PICI capsids can
         | indeed interact with tails from multiple phage types, providing
         | further impetus for this research direction." (Page 35). A bit
         | weird that it uses "our own preliminary data".
        
           | TrainedMonkey wrote:
           | > A bit weird that it uses "our own preliminary data"
           | 
           | I think potential of LLM based analysis is sky high given the
           | amount of concurrent research happening and high context load
           | required to understand the papers. However there is a lot of
           | pressure to show how amazing AI is and we should be vigilant.
           | So, my first thought was - could it be that training data /
           | context / RAG having access to a file it should not have
           | contaminated the result? This is indirect evidence that maybe
           | something was leaked.
        
         | hinkley wrote:
         | > in silico discovery
         | 
         | Oh I don't like that. I don't like that at all.
        
           | j_timberlake wrote:
           | Don't worry, it takes about 10 years for drugs to get
           | approved, AIs will be superintelligent long before the
           | government gives you permission to buy a dose of AI-developed
           | drugs.
        
         | dekhn wrote:
         | So, I've been reading Google research papers for decades now
         | and also worked there for a decade and wrote a few papers of my
         | own.
         | 
         | When google publishes papers, they tend to juice the results
         | significance (google is not the only group that does this, but
         | they are pretty egregious). You need to be skilled in the field
         | of the paper to be able to pare away the exceptional claims. A
         | really good example is https://spectrum.ieee.org/chip-design-
         | controversy while I think Google did some interesting work
         | there and it's true they included some of the results in their
         | chip designs, their comparison claims are definitely over-hyped
         | and they did not react well when they got called out on it.
        
           | tsumnia wrote:
           | Remember Google is a publicly traded company, so everything
           | must be reviewed to "ensure shareholder value". Like dekhn
           | said, its impressive, but marketing wants more than
           | "impressive".
        
             | dekhn wrote:
             | This is true for public universities and private
             | universities; you see the same thing happening in academic
             | papers (and especially the university PR around the paper)
        
               | hall0ween wrote:
               | I would say anecdotal. This hasn't been my case across
               | four universities and ten years.
        
               | BeetleB wrote:
               | The actual papers don't overhype. But the university PR's
               | regarding those papers? They can _really_ overhype the
               | results. And of course, the media then takes it up an
               | extra order of magnitude.
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | I've definitely seen many examples of papers where the
               | conclusions went far beyond what the actual results
               | warranted. Scientists are incentivized to claim their
               | discovery generalizes as much as possible.
               | 
               | But yes, it's normally: "science paper says an experiment
               | in mice shows promising results in cancer treatment" then
               | "University PR says a new treatment for cancer is around
               | the corner" and "Media says cure for all cancer"
        
           | ein0p wrote:
           | That applies to absolutely everyone. Convenient results are
           | highlighted, inconvenient are either not mentioned or de-
           | emphasized. You do have to be well read in the field to see
           | what the authors _aren't_ saying, that's one of the purposes
           | of being well-read in the first place. That is also why 100%
           | of science reporting is basically disinformation -
           | journalists are not equipped with this level of nuanced
           | understanding.
        
             | dekhn wrote:
             | yes, but google has a long history of being egregious, with
             | the additional detail that their work is often
             | irreproducible for technical reasons (rather than being
             | irreproducible for missing methods). For example, we
             | published an excellent paper but nobody could reproduce it
             | because at the time, nobody else had a million spare cores
             | to run MD simulations of proteins.
        
               | ein0p wrote:
               | It's hardly Google's problem that nobody else has a
               | million cores, wouldn't you agree? Should they not
               | publish the result at all if it's using more than a
               | handful of cores so that anyone in academia can reproduce
               | it? That'd be rather limiting.
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | Well, a goal of most science is to be reproducible, and
               | it couldn't be reproduced, merely for technical reasons
               | (and so we shared as much data from the runs as possible
               | so people could verify our results). This sort of thing
               | comes up when CERN is the only place that can run an
               | experiment and nobody can verify it.
        
         | Workaccount2 wrote:
         | Does this qualify as an answer to Dwarkesh's question?[1][2]
         | 
         | [1]https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/02/dw
         | ... [2]https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1888164523984470055
         | 
         | I don't know his @ but I'm sure he is on here somewhere
        
       | ACV001 wrote:
       | Just as the invention of writing degraded human memory (before
       | that they memorized whole stories, poems), with the advent of AI,
       | humans will degrade their thinking skills and knowledge in
       | general.
        
       | azinman2 wrote:
       | It seems in general we're heading toward's Minsky's society of
       | minds concept. I know OpenAI is wanting to collapse all their
       | models into a single omni model that can do it all, but I wonder
       | if under the hood it'd just be about routing. It'd make sense to
       | me for agents to specialize in certain tool calls, ways of
       | thinking, etc that as a conceptual framework/scaffolding provides
       | a useful direction.
        
         | yjftsjthsd-h wrote:
         | Isn't that kinda the idea of Mixture of Experts?
        
         | mythrwy wrote:
         | I wonder if OpenAI might be routing already based on speed of
         | some "O1" responses I receive. It does make sense.
        
           | willy_k wrote:
           | Also, for some more complex questions I've noticed that it
           | doesn't expose its reasoning. Specifically, yesterday I asked
           | it to perform a search algorithm provided a picture of a
           | grid, and it reasoned for 1-2 minutes but didn't show any of
           | it (neither in real time nor afterwords), whereas for simpler
           | questions I've asked it the reasoning is provided as well.
           | Not sure what this means, but it suggests some type of
           | different treatment based on complexity.
        
       | ThouYS wrote:
       | I guess we do live in the fast take off world
        
       | celltalk wrote:
       | "Drug repurposing for AML" lol
       | 
       | As a person who is literally doing his PhD on AML by implementing
       | molecular subtyping, and ex-vivo drug predictions. I find this
       | super random.
       | 
       | I would truly suggest our pipeline instead of random drug
       | repurposing :)
       | 
       | https://celvox.co/solutions/seAMLess
       | 
       | edit: Btw we're looking for ways to fund/commercialize our
       | pipeline. You could contact us through the site if you're
       | interested!
        
         | heyoni wrote:
         | Can you explain what you mean by subtyping and if/how it
         | negates the usefulness of repurposing (if that's what you meant
         | to say). Wouldn't subtyping complement a drug repurposing
         | screen by allowing the scientist to test compounds against a
         | subset of a disease?
         | 
         | And drug repurposing is also used for conditions with no known
         | molecular basis like autism. You're not suggesting its
         | usefulness is limited in those cases right?
        
           | celltalk wrote:
           | Sure. There are studies like BEAT-AML which tests selected
           | drugs' responses on primary AML material. So, not on a cell-
           | line but on true patient data. Combining this information
           | with molecular measurements, you can actually say something
           | about which drugs would be useful for a subset of the
           | patients.
           | 
           | However, this is still not how you treat a patient. There are
           | standard practices in the clinic. Usually the first line
           | treatment is induction chemo with hypomethylating agents
           | (except elderly who might not be eligible for such a
           | treatment). Otherwise the options are still very limited, the
           | "best" drug in the field so far is a drug called Venetoclax,
           | but more things are coming up such as immuno-therapy etc.
           | It's a very complex domain, so drug repurposing on an AML
           | cell line is not a wow moment for me.
        
         | ttpphd wrote:
         | It's almost like scientists are doing something more than a
         | random search over language.
        
           | celltalk wrote:
           | I do hallucinate a better future as well.
        
             | coherentpony wrote:
             | It bothers me that the word 'hallucinate' is used to
             | describe when the output of a machine learning model is
             | wrong.
             | 
             | In other fields, when models are wrong, the discussion is
             | around 'errors'. How large the errors are, their structural
             | nature, possible bounds, and so forth. But when it's AI
             | it's a 'hallucination'. Almost as if the thing is feeling a
             | bit poorly and just needs to rest and take some fever-
             | reducer before being correct again.
             | 
             | It bothers me. Probably more than it should, but it does.
        
               | pertymcpert wrote:
               | I think hallucinate is a good term because when an AI
               | completely makes up facts or APIs etc it doesn't do so as
               | a minor mistake of an otherwise correct reasoning step.
        
               | throwawaymaths wrote:
               | its more like conspiracy theory. when you're picking a
               | token youre kinda like putting a gun to the LLM's head
               | and demanding, "what you got next?"
        
       | waynenilsen wrote:
       | it seems that humans may become the hands of the AI before the
       | robots are ready
       | 
       | mechanical turk, but for biology
        
         | akomtu wrote:
         | That's the Quake version of the machine civilization: machines
         | make the decisions, but use chunks of humans to improve their
         | unholy machinery. The alternative Doom version is the opposite:
         | humans make the decisions, but they are blended in an unholy
         | way into the machines.
        
           | tsumnia wrote:
           | Now do the Warhammer 40k version :D
        
       | quinnjh wrote:
       | The market seems excited to charge in whatever direction the
       | weathervane has last been pointing, regardless of the real
       | outcomes of running in that direction. Hopefully I'm wrong, but
       | it reminds me very much of this study (I'll quote a paraphrase)
       | 
       | "A groundbreaking new study of over 1,000 scientists at a major
       | U.S. materials science firm reveals a disturbing paradox: When
       | paired with AI systems, top researchers become extraordinarily
       | more productive - and extraordinarily less satisfied with their
       | work. The numbers tell a stark story: AI assistance helped
       | scientists discover 44% more materials and increased patent
       | filings by 39%. But here's the twist: 82% of these same
       | scientists reported feeling less fulfilled in their jobs."
       | 
       | Quote from https://futureofbeinghuman.com/p/is-ai-poised-to-suck-
       | the-so...
       | 
       | Referencing this study
       | https://aidantr.github.io/files/AI_innovation.pdf
        
         | yodon wrote:
         | As a dev, I have the same experience.
         | 
         | AI chat is a massive productivity enhancer, but, when coding
         | via prompts, I'm not able to hit the super satisfying developer
         | flow state that I get into via normal coding.
         | 
         | Copilot is less of a productivity boost, but also less of a
         | flow state blocker.
        
           | sanderjd wrote:
           | Yep! I think these tools are incredibly useful, but I think
           | they're basically changing all our jobs to be more like what
           | product managers do, having ideas for what we want to
           | achieve, but farming out a significant chunk of the work
           | rather than doing it ourselves. And that's fine, I find it
           | very hard to argue that it's a bad thing. But there's a
           | reason that we aren't all product managers already.
           | Programming is fun, and I do experience it as a loss to find
           | myself doing less of it myself.
        
           | pradn wrote:
           | There is some queasy feeling of fake-ness when auto-
           | completing so much code. It feels like you're doing something
           | wrong. But these are all based on my experience coding for
           | half my life. AI-native devs will probably feel differently.
        
         | radioactivist wrote:
         | I'm a bit skeptical of this study given how it is unpublished,
         | from a (fairly junior) single author and all of the underlying
         | details of the subject are redacted. Is there any information
         | anywhere about what this company in the study was actually
         | doing? (the description in the article are very vague --
         | basically something to do with materials)
        
         | BeetleB wrote:
         | The feeling of dissatisfaction is something I can relate to. My
         | story:
         | 
         | I only recently started using aider[1].
         | 
         | My experience with it can be described in 3 words.
         | 
         | Wow!
         | 
         | Oh wow!
         | 
         | It was amazing. I was writing a throwaway script for one time
         | use (not for work). It wrote it for me in under 15 minutes
         | (this includes my time getting familiar with the tool!) No
         | bugs.
         | 
         | So I decided to see how far I could take it. I added command
         | line arguments, logging, and a whole bunch of other things.
         | After a full hour, I had a production ready script - complete
         | with logs, etc. I had to debug code only once.
         | 
         | I may write high quality code for work, but for personal
         | throwaway scripts, I'm sloppy. I would not put a command line
         | parser, nor any logging. This did it all for me for very cheap!
         | 
         | There's no going back. For simple scripts like this, I will
         | definitely use aider.
         | 
         | And yeah, there was definitely no satisfaction one would derive
         | from coding. It was truly _addictive_. I _want_ to use it more
         | and more. And no matter how much I use it and like the results,
         | it doesn 't scratch my programmer's itch. It's nowhere near the
         | fun/satisfaction of SW development.
         | 
         | [1] https://aider.chat/
        
       | m3kw9 wrote:
       | I really would like to see a genuine breakthru amongst all this
       | talk about AI doing that
        
       | stanford_labrat wrote:
       | So I'm a biomedical scientist (in training I suppose...I'm in my
       | 3rd year of a Genetics PhD) and I have seen this trend a couple
       | of times now where AI developers tout that AI will accelerate
       | biomedical discovery through a very specific argument that AI
       | will be smarter and generate better hypotheses than humans.
       | 
       | For example in this Google essay they make the claim that CRISPR
       | was a transdisciplinary endeavor, "which combined expertise
       | ranging from microbiology to genetics to molecular biology" and
       | this is the basis of their argument that an AI co-scientist will
       | be better able to integrate multiple fields at once to generate
       | novel and better hypothesis. For one, what they fail to
       | understand as computer scientists (I suspect due to not being
       | intimately familiar with biomedical research) is that
       | microbio/genetics/mol bio are closer linked than you may expect
       | as a lay person. There is no large leap between microbiology and
       | genetics that would slow down someone like Doudna or even myself
       | - I use techniques from multiple domains in my daily work. These
       | all fall under the general broad domain of what I'll call
       | "cellular/micro biology". As another example, Dario Amodei from
       | Claude also wrote something similar in his essay Machines of
       | Loving Grace that the limiting factor in biomedical is a lack of
       | "talented, creative researchers" for which AI could fill the
       | gap[1].
       | 
       | The problem with both of these ideas is that they misunderstand
       | the rate-limiting factor in biomedical research. Which to them is
       | a lack of good ideas. And this is very much not the case.
       | Biologists have tons of good ideas. The rate limiting step is
       | testing all these good ideas with sufficient rigor to either
       | continue exploring that particular hypothesis or whether to
       | abandon the project for something else. From my own work, the
       | hypothesis driving my thesis I came up with over the course of a
       | month or two. The actual amount of work prescribed by my thesis
       | committee to fully explore whether or not it was correct? 3 years
       | or so worth of work. Good ideas are cheap in this field.
       | 
       | Overall I think these views stem from field specific nuances that
       | don't necessarily translate. I'm not a computer scientist, but I
       | imagine that in computer science the rate limiting factor is not
       | actually testing out hypothesis but generating good ones. It's
       | not like the code you write will take multiple months to run
       | before you get an answer to your question (maybe it will? I'm not
       | educated enough about this to make a hard claim. In biology, it
       | is very common for one experiment to take multiple months before
       | you know the answer to your question or even if the experiment
       | failed and you have to do it again). But happy to hear from a CS
       | PhD or researcher about this.
       | 
       | All this being said I am a big fan of AI. I try and use ChatGPT
       | all the time, I ask it research questions, ask it to search the
       | literature and summarize findings, etc. I even used it literally
       | yesterday to make a deep dive into a somewhat unfamiliar branch
       | of developmental biology more easy (and I was very satisfied with
       | the result). But for scientific design, hypothesis generation? At
       | the moment, useless. AI and other LLMs at this point are a very
       | powerful version of google and code writer. And it's not even
       | correct 30% of the time to boot so you have to be extremely
       | careful when using it. I do think that wasting less time
       | exploring hypotheses that are incorrect or bad is a good thing.
       | But the problem here is that we can pretty easily identify good
       | and bad hypotheses already. We don't need AI for that, what takes
       | time is the actual amount of testing of these hypotheses that
       | slows down research. Oh and politics, which I doubt AI can magic
       | away for us.
       | 
       | [1] https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-
       | grace#1-biology-a...
        
         | colingauvin wrote:
         | It's pretty painful watching CS try to turn biology into an
         | engineering problem.
         | 
         | It's generally very easy to marginally move the needle in drug
         | discovery. It's very hard to move the needle enough to justify
         | the cost.
         | 
         | What is challenging is culling ideas, and having enough SNR in
         | your readouts to really trust them.
        
       | bjarlsson wrote:
       | This is marketing material from Google and people are accepting
       | the premises uncritically.
        
         | anothermathbozo wrote:
         | Almost this entire thread is criticism
        
       | writeslowly wrote:
       | I recently ran across this toaster-in-dishwasher article [1]
       | again and was disappointed that the LLMs I have access to could
       | replicate the "hairdryer-in-aquarium" breakthrough (or the
       | toaster-in-dishwasher scenario, although I haven't explored it as
       | much), which has made me a bit skeptical of the ability of LLMs
       | to do novel research. Maybe the new OpenAI research AI is smart
       | enough to figure it out?
       | 
       | [1] https://jdstillwater.blogspot.com/2012/05/i-put-toaster-
       | in-d...
        
         | BriggyDwiggs42 wrote:
         | Do you mean they sided with the incorrect common wisdom all the
         | people in the article were using?
        
       | hinkley wrote:
       | I am generally down on AI these days but I still remember using
       | Eliza for the first time.
       | 
       | I think I could accept an AI prompting _me_ instead of the other
       | way around. Something to ask you a checklist of problems and how
       | you will address them.
       | 
       | I'd also love to have someone apply AI techniques to property
       | based testing. The process of narrowing down from 2^32 inputs to
       | six interesting ones works better if it's faster.
        
       | insane_dreamer wrote:
       | Seems like the primary value-add is to speed up the literature
       | review process during the hypothesis formulation process.
        
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