[HN Gopher] Carbon capture more costly than switching to renewab...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Carbon capture more costly than switching to renewables,
       researchers find
        
       Author : Brajeshwar
       Score  : 351 points
       Date   : 2025-02-15 15:06 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (techxplore.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (techxplore.com)
        
       | idunnoman1222 wrote:
       | Obviously
        
       | a_c wrote:
       | Would love to have someone knowledgeable share why carbon capture
       | is more viable than planting trees. I always thought the idea we
       | need technology to capture carbon is silly, but never bothered
       | enough to research more on it
        
         | jhonof wrote:
         | Trees need to be cut and stored to actually capture the carbon
         | otherwise there is a risk they burn or die and release the
         | carbon they captured back into the atmosphere
        
           | vharuck wrote:
           | If there are more trees in 10 years than there are now, and
           | we keep that number relatively steady, won't that mean less
           | CO2 in the atmosphere? Individual trees may die and
           | decompose, but they can be replaced.
        
             | jhonof wrote:
             | As you add more trees (and the globe continues to get
             | hotter), the risk of forest fires increases. In theory you
             | are correct that we could just keep increasing tree amount,
             | but in practice that will be difficult in a lot of the
             | world as it gets hotter. Trees (and algae) are great
             | capture tech, but horrible long term storage tech. There
             | are currently interesting proposals on how to long term
             | store wood and other biomass for sequestration but I'm
             | unsure if any company is doing them at scale yet. Off the
             | top of my head there is burying the biomass in mines, and
             | putting biomass in a chemical bath that turns it's CO2 into
             | some form of storable liquid and then storing that. I can
             | only find a link for one of the two after quick googling.
             | 
             | https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1750-
             | 0...
        
             | ArnoVW wrote:
             | in theory, yes.
             | 
             | but as it is, the global net change in terms of forrest is
             | negative. Hell, the amazon is losing 10.000 acres a day.
             | And aside from direct human intervention, there's
             | desertification that's not getting any better.
             | 
             | so in practice, no.
        
               | filoeleven wrote:
               | The Great Green Wall project is in fact reducing
               | desertification.
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Green_Wall_(Africa)
        
               | ArnoVW wrote:
               | Interesting, didn't know it. Did you read the page in
               | question?
               | 
               | " As of 2023, the Great Green Wall was reported as
               | "facing the risk of collapse" due to terrorist threats,
               | absence of political leadership, and insufficient
               | funding. "The Sahel countries have not allocated any
               | spending in their budgets for this project. They are only
               | waiting on funding from abroad, whether from the European
               | Union, the African Union, or others." said Issa Garba, an
               | environmental activist from Niger, who also described the
               | 2030 guideline as an unattainable goal. Amid the existing
               | stagnation, a growing number of voices have called for
               | scrapping the project. "
        
           | loehnsberg wrote:
           | You can plant trees (or any plant really as long as they grow
           | fast) and then bury it so that the carbon won't get released
           | or at least very slowly. There's an older thread discussing
           | this idea [1].
           | 
           | CCS would dispose the CO2 deep underground, like where
           | natural gas is usually stored or extracted from. Given the
           | cost of developing natural gas storage facilities, my hunch
           | is that CCS is more of way of not having to deal with carbon
           | emissions today.
           | 
           | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32794424
        
             | jhonof wrote:
             | 100%, I was talking specifically about just tree planting.
             | Trees are great capture tech, but horrible storage tech, so
             | tree planting alone is not a good carbon capture solution.
             | Biomass burial is (imo) a great and relatively simple
             | solution at the moment because we have a bunch of empty
             | mines to use. There is also research being done on putting
             | biomass in a chemical bath that turns it's CO2 into some
             | form of storable liquid and then storing that, but I can't
             | find a link for it at the moment.
        
           | a-priori wrote:
           | When trees die, they're consumed by fungi, and the carbon is
           | sequestered in humus (soil). That's totally fine, and in fact
           | is an important reason to ensure that planted forests have a
           | fungal culture so this decomposition process occurs properly.
           | 
           | You're right about fire releasing carbon. But even after
           | devastating fires, forests don't burn completely and plenty
           | of plant matter remains. Even ash and soot is still
           | sequestered carbon, not to mention charred wood even if the
           | tree doesn't survive.
        
           | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
           | That's only true under certain circumstances. Sometimes the
           | biomass accumulation is permanent.
           | 
           | My house was built in the 60's. The basement recently started
           | flooding. While digging a drain to fix the problem I
           | uncovered evidence that ground level used to be 18 inches
           | lower than it is now. 60 years of deciduous tree action
           | created enough new soil to change how the water flows...
           | Instead of going around my house now it goes through.
           | 
           | Trees are not seen as a solution because they don't represent
           | a market opportunity. You can make millions selling EV's, how
           | are you going to make money with trees?
           | 
           | If we actually wanted to fix this, rather than using it as
           | marketing spin, I figure we'd be working on ways to replace
           | deserts with forests and then on ways to ensure that whatever
           | soil accumulation trick my tree is doing is also happening in
           | those forests. (And golly I wish we would, I've been taking
           | biology classes in this direction and recent political events
           | have me thinking that the I've got some significant headwinds
           | here).
        
             | gruez wrote:
             | >Trees are not seen as a solution because they don't
             | represent a market opportunity. You can make millions
             | selling EV's, how are you going to make money with trees?
             | 
             | Given that carbon is emitted continuously, and forests only
             | offset a fixed amount of emissions (they stop sequestering
             | carbon once they're fully grown and reach steady-state),
             | you basically constantly need to be planting trees. That
             | creates an obvious market for tree planting companies.
        
           | adrr wrote:
           | Plant trees for paper and stop recycling paper.
        
         | krn1p4n1c wrote:
         | Money. Planting trees doesn't pay like some absurd tech idea to
         | vacuum it up and bond/compress it.
        
         | bbor wrote:
         | I'm no expert, but on a theoretical level: trees--and, more
         | importantly, algae--capture carbon on accident as part of their
         | respiration, which even with risky genetic modification
         | enhancements has a natural limit on volume/biomass-level
         | efficiency.
         | 
         | OTOH, with the right chemical process running at scale
         | ("synthetic carbon capture", apparently), the sky's the limit!
         | We might not have the right tech at the moment, but AFAIK there
         | are multiple plausible systems that would work much better than
         | what we have now.
        
           | renewedrebecca wrote:
           | This is magical thinking.
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | Monocelular algae is on the order of 1% efficient at converting
         | light into biomass. Land crops are a few times less efficient
         | than them, and trees are 1 order of magnitude or 2 less
         | efficient than crops.
        
         | SpicyLemonZest wrote:
         | Serious advocates consider it to be a research area, not a
         | mature primary climate strategy. Someone in the 1930s would
         | have been equally skeptical of "smog capture", but it turns out
         | modern catalytic converters are so good that we don't have to
         | choose between enjoying clear skies and driving around mobile
         | smog machines.
        
         | aDyslecticCrow wrote:
         | Someone else pointed it out in a different way. Forrest only
         | captures carbon as it grows. A fully grown forest is carbon
         | neutral. Specific type of march land and oceans are the only
         | ecosystems that properly capture and store carbon continuously.
         | 
         | So we need to chop the trees down again and plant new ones.
         | Which is more feasible than technological carbon capture, but
         | still a drop in the bucket of what is needed.
        
         | ArnoVW wrote:
         | The way to look at it is: there are two carbon cycles. A long
         | cycle (proto-plankton dies, gets carbonized over millions of
         | years, is pumped up, burned, and ends up in the atmosphere),
         | and a short cycle (tree dies, is burned / rots, and ends up in
         | the atmosphere).
         | 
         | If all we do is burn trees, there is no problem. We're not
         | adding CO2 to the atmosphere that wasn't there before. The
         | problem is that the stuff we pump up was not there before.
         | 
         | So capturing in trees is at best a temporary solution. In 20 /
         | 30 years that tree dies and is burnt or rots, and so the CO2 is
         | released again. At best it may buy us some time while we learn
         | to do with less oil. But it's crazy talk to do a weekend in
         | Thailand and then "offset it with trees". That's like saying "I
         | was broke, but I found $100 on the street, now life can
         | continue as before".
         | 
         | I won't even mention the fact that large parts of the "offset
         | economy" are essentially fraud. People that own a swath of
         | forrest declaring "I was going to cut these 10 km2 of forrest
         | and prevent any new tree on it, but now I won't" just so that
         | they can get carbon credits. Even if it is painfully obvious
         | that they never intended to do that.
        
         | loeg wrote:
         | Planting trees is a form of carbon capture!
        
       | bbor wrote:
       | I came in to drop a "glad the obvious is being confirmed!", but
       | after skimming the actual study I'm sadly a little dubious of its
       | reasoning. It didn't examine the two approaches (technically
       | three: renewables, natural carbon capture, and synthetic carbon
       | capture) on their engineering or economic merits, but rather just
       | compiled historical data on jurisdictions that mainly promoted
       | one of the three and compared the outcomes. I think the noisy
       | nature of such an analysis is obvious, not to mention the bias
       | against synthetic approaches from analyzing outdated tech. I'm a
       | huge believer in renewables being the only path forward, but this
       | study isn't very convincing IMHO!
       | 
       | Also would've loved to see "degrowth"/reduce usage as an option,
       | since that's the last big one people advocate for IME.
       | 
       | P.S. does anyone know if the current US regime's "any university
       | that works on federal grants is forbidden from promoting DEI"
       | policy is intended to apply to climate change as well? Seems
       | likely, but I don't recall seeing anything explicit in any of the
       | EOs I've read. This study isn't very out of Stanford, which would
       | clearly be impacted -- thus it piqued my interest.
        
       | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
       | Carbon capture has always seemed to me to be a means for
       | companies to get paid both to produce carbon and then to clean it
       | up.
        
         | s1artibartfast wrote:
         | As they should, provided the consumer is paying and using the
         | carbon.
         | 
         | Pay an airline to take you somewhere and produce carbon, pay
         | someone to remove that carbon.
        
           | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
           | Should get paid? Or should clean it up? The problem is this
           | is energy and resources that could be spent on actually
           | solving the problem at its source instead of finding ways to
           | maintain the status quo.
        
             | s1artibartfast wrote:
             | cleaning it up is solving the problem.
        
               | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
               | Is it? Or is it just kicking the can down the road? We're
               | trying to clean up crumbs off the floor with a machine
               | that runs on cookies.
        
               | lesuorac wrote:
               | It's an improvement no?
               | 
               | It's like paying a fee when buying a car battery or car
               | tires unless you return an old one.
               | 
               | The fee needs to be overly pegged to inflation or
               | something though otherwise you end up with the glass /
               | aluminum cans problem.
        
               | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
               | The difference here is that it's not deposit to encourage
               | recycling, it's just a tax, and it's not a discrete thing
               | you're getting taxed on, it's everything. It's costing
               | everybody more and people are being paid twice. I'm
               | thinking especially of the companies trying to sequester
               | carbon in the wells they empty - they end up making money
               | both ways.
        
               | s1artibartfast wrote:
               | Again, seems reasonable. If you dont like paying them to
               | pump the oil and dispose of the carbon, then don't
               | consume the oil and create the emissions.
        
               | gruez wrote:
               | >The difference here is that it's not deposit to
               | encourage recycling, it's just a tax,
               | 
               | It's a tax to encourage the alternatives. If an electric
               | car costs more than an ICE car, then taxing ICE cars
               | through a carbon tax will make the electric car more
               | attractive, at least on the margins.
               | 
               | > It's costing everybody more and people are being paid
               | twice. I'm thinking especially of the companies trying to
               | sequester carbon in the wells they empty - they end up
               | making money both ways.
               | 
               | Similar logic to the above applies. Oil companies might
               | be able to charge more for a barrel of oil, but it's not
               | like that barrel of oil is suddenly more useful. That's
               | bad for oil companies because it makes the economics of
               | their product worse. They have to do more "stuff" to sell
               | a given barrel of oil, but their competitors (solar
               | panels or whatever) don't.
        
               | lesuorac wrote:
               | > I'm thinking especially of the companies trying to
               | sequester carbon in the wells they empty - they end up
               | making money both ways.
               | 
               | Sure, but the reason solar panels are popular is because
               | they're (mostly) the cheapest way to generate power. By
               | adding an additional tax to petroleum products based on
               | say sequestering costs (as opposed to some made-up I
               | won't chop down a forest offset) it encourages non-
               | petroleum products to be used.
               | 
               | It's basically a tariff for clean energy.
        
               | Nasrudith wrote:
               | Operating under that sort of nihilism, why bother saving
               | babies if they are just going to die of old age at best?
        
             | gruez wrote:
             | >Should get paid? Or should clean it up?
             | 
             | The entity who caused the pollution should be responsible
             | for paying to clean it up. For logistical purposes it might
             | make sense to tax at the point of production/sale rather
             | than actual emission, eg. taxes at gas stations rather than
             | some sort of monitoring system on every car.
             | 
             | > The problem is this is energy and resources that could be
             | spent on actually solving the problem at its source instead
             | of finding ways to maintain the status quo.
             | 
             | If the alternatives are actually cheaper, the market will
             | naturally work itself out, because polluters would be
             | incentivized to switch. Nobody uses plastic utensils in
             | place of reusable ones, not because the government banned
             | them, but because everyone knows the latter are so much
             | cheaper.
        
               | sweeter wrote:
               | You literally can't just "clean it up" it's not possible.
               | This is there American hyper-individualistic mindset at
               | work. The problem and solution is cut and dry, anything
               | else is a comfortable lie.
        
               | gruez wrote:
               | >You literally can't just "clean it up" it's not
               | possible.
               | 
               | explain? at least with carbon since it's fungible and
               | global it's probably the easiest to clean up, compared to
               | exxon trying to clean an oil spill or whatever.
        
           | disantlor wrote:
           | aka we pay their negative externalities? no
        
             | s1artibartfast wrote:
             | I think everyone should pay for their own externalities.
             | Put gas in your car, and you are generating the
             | externality, so expect to pay some company a gas tax to
             | remove that carbon.
             | 
             | Buy electricity from coal and the power plant is the
             | emitter, who should pay for capture. However, if you are a
             | electricity customer, expect that cost to be passed on to
             | you on your bill.
        
         | pornel wrote:
         | Who's going to pay for carbon capture? Definitely not the
         | current polluters who benefit from fossil fuel prices that
         | don't include the cost to clean that up. This is like a fossil
         | fuel subsidy from a debt left to someone else to pay.
        
           | gruez wrote:
           | >Who's going to pay for carbon capture? Definitely not the
           | current polluters who benefit from fossil fuel prices that
           | don't include the cost to clean that up.
           | 
           | Carbon emitters through carbon pricing schemes. They already
           | cover more than 20% of worldwide emissions, with China
           | joining a few years ago.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.economist.com/cdn-
           | cgi/image/width=1424,quality=8...
        
         | WhyNotHugo wrote:
         | The old "we can sell you the solution to the problem we sold
         | you" trick.
        
         | tommiegannert wrote:
         | Or a way to take money from green investment funds: you're
         | never finished, but you're always only two years away. Both
         | directly from governments and from mandates on the oil
         | companies to do green investments.
        
           | Aachen wrote:
           | Cite anything that says we're two years away from using
           | carbon capture to clean up the climate
           | 
           | This has never been the point. Why the strawman argument?
        
       | Asraelite wrote:
       | So what? We would still need to work on actively reducing current
       | CO2 levels even if emissions dropped to zero tomorrow.
        
       | tonetegeatinst wrote:
       | The new paper regarding using a nuke to accelerate co2
       | sequestering in the sea from MIT....is man made water
       | sequestration using minerals to bind the co2 from the water count
       | as carbon capture?
       | 
       | The paper was published from RIT.
        
         | aDyslecticCrow wrote:
         | It would be carbon capture... but it feels like such a
         | needlessly destructive method. It's up there with atmosphere
         | manipulation in "bad ideas that we should only even consider if
         | we're desperatre"
        
           | pfdietz wrote:
           | It's destructive, but it exploits the extremely low cost per
           | unit energy of nuclear explosives (particularly large ones).
        
       | aDyslecticCrow wrote:
       | Anyone who isn't aware of this is either - Lying. - Paid by the
       | oil industry. - Tricked by the oil industry.
       | 
       | All you need is napkin maths. We gain energy by turning carbon
       | into carbon dioxide. Now, we need the same energy to reverse it,
       | but with a loss factor.
       | 
       | We continue to see companies and politicians claiming it's
       | feasible and will help us become "green". We should call them out
       | on their shit. If we had the renewable power budget to use proper
       | carbon capture on a large scale, we would already have a fully
       | green grid.
       | 
       | ---
       | 
       | Well... There are other methods than reversing c02 back into
       | carbon chains.
       | 
       | Capture of CO2 and storage as CO2, mostly in compressed gas form
       | in underground, has been proposed by a lot of companies. This is
       | a logistical nightmare that has to be kept up for forever. Better
       | keep that pressure chamber leakproof for 1000 years with likely
       | upkeep. (setting aside how inefficiently that actually stores the
       | carbon even if grabbing it from the air was free)
       | 
       | Ideas to shove c02 air bubbles in concrete are promising but
       | barely enough to offset the c02 generated from creating the
       | concrete itself.
       | 
       | One promising approach is to grow plants and turn them into
       | charcoal. Charcoal is great for keeping fertilizer in the soil so
       | that we can spread it over crop fields for a small increase in
       | yield. Napkin maths on that makes it just require about Australia
       | of farmland (if I remember) to offset the world's CO2 emissions.
       | Almost feasible. (bamboo, algae, and sunflowers seem to be the
       | highest biomass generators, but perhaps a slower crop that can
       | handle worse climate is preferable)
       | 
       | But these are still worse plans than just building a green grid.
        
         | Tade0 wrote:
         | > All you need is napkin maths. We gain energy by turning
         | carbon into carbon dioxide. Now, we need the same energy to
         | reverse it, but with a loss factor.
         | 
         | I'm of the opinion that no matter the level of cartoon villainy
         | the oil industry is accused of - they're most likely guilty,
         | but there's an inaccuracy here:
         | 
         | In hydrocarbons the majority of energy comes from the oxidation
         | of hydrogen.
         | 
         | We should get rid of coal first, as it's irredeemable in this
         | regard and methane second, as it's a greenhouse gas which tends
         | to leak, but it's theoretically possible to burn hydrocarbons
         | and turn the CO2 to coal and leave it like that with a net
         | energy gain - it's just hugely impractical compared to not
         | burning them in the first place.
        
           | aDyslecticCrow wrote:
           | > In hydrocarbons the majority of energy comes from the
           | oxidation of hydrogen.
           | 
           | This I wasn't quite aware of. Thanks for the correction.
           | 
           | > But it's theoretically possible to burn hydrocarbons and
           | turn the CO2 into coal and leave it like that with a net
           | energy gain
           | 
           | This would be a game-changer! Though "theoretically" is
           | pulling a bit of weight here...
           | 
           | > We should get rid of coal first, as it's irredeemable in
           | this regard and methane second, as it's a greenhouse gas
           | which tends to leak,
           | 
           | I also agree with your list. Burning stuff for grid energy
           | should stop ASAP. Liquid fuel for transport is, however, the
           | most difficult and probably the last to be replaced. It's to
           | the point that generating green liquid fuels (that don't use
           | fossil sources of carbon) is still actively researched and
           | used, as air travel or shipping may never become feasible on
           | green energy sources.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | Ever see a diesel 'rolling coal'? They are burning the
             | hydrogen and sending carbon into the air. Terrible for the
             | local evironment though. this is still carbon positive
             | though since some carbon is burned - just not all.
        
             | blkhawk wrote:
             | > But it's theoretically possible to burn hydrocarbons and
             | turn the CO2 into coal and leave > it like that with a net
             | energy gain
             | 
             | > This would be a game-changer! Though "theoretically" is
             | pulling a bit of weight here...
             | 
             | In nat. gas this is possible - its called pyrolisis - as an
             | alternative to steam reformation it is generating pure
             | carbon and hydrogen instead of the CO2 and Hydrogen that
             | steam reformation does.
             | 
             | Its main downside is that it takes more energy so you get
             | less usable energy out of the process.
             | 
             | You can do it with other organic fuels as well and the
             | simplest process is making charcoal from wood but its not
             | as clear a way to separate out carbon there.
        
             | taurknaut wrote:
             | > Burning stuff for grid energy should stop ASAP.
             | 
             | Sadly I think the only viable route to this is wealthy
             | countries paying poor countries to dismantle these power
             | plants (and presumably replace them with something
             | equivalent).
             | 
             | This has two nice benefits. One, wealthy countries show
             | they act in good faith. Two, this will greatly reduce
             | wealth disparity.
             | 
             | Of course, there's the chance some people will threaten to
             | emit gas to acquire disproportionate power. This is true,
             | but still preferable to the west just roasting the planet
             | and then blaming china. Like grow tf up.
        
               | amrocha wrote:
               | This is putting the cart before the horses. These wealthy
               | countries haven't even stopped burning fossil fuels.
               | Let's focus on that first.
        
           | rob74 wrote:
           | Are you telling me that you're against good clean American
           | coal?! https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/03/trump-
           | war-on...
           | 
           | (BTW I agree with you, but the current political climate -
           | and not only in the US - seems to go in the entirely wrong
           | direction)
        
           | pjc50 wrote:
           | There's a pretty insane scheme called "underground coal
           | gasification" which had been proposed for the Firth of Forth.
           | It's the same process as town gas - partial oxidation of coal
           | to hydrogen and carbon monoxide. Bus in situ. So a controlled
           | underground coal fire.
        
             | thinkcontext wrote:
             | There's a similar idea to gasify old oil and gas wells.
             | This sounds more feasible than doing it with coal though I
             | suppose you could have a blowout. It should be cheaper too
             | since it uses already drilled wells.
             | 
             | https://protonh2.com/protonh2-advances-project-apollo-
             | with-s...
        
           | AnthonyMouse wrote:
           | > it's theoretically possible to burn hydrocarbons and turn
           | the CO2 to coal and leave it like that with a net energy gain
           | - it's just hugely impractical compared to not burning them
           | in the first place.
           | 
           | It's also theoretically possible to have chemical reactions
           | that bind carbon from the air into solid compounds that
           | aren't themselves combustible without a net energy loss, but
           | then you need a very large volume of reactants and produce a
           | very large volume of industrial waste and it still turns out
           | to be highly uneconomical compared to the cost of replacing
           | fossil fuels for power generation.
        
             | cyberax wrote:
             | > It's also theoretically possible to have chemical
             | reactions that bind carbon from the air into solid
             | compounds that aren't themselves combustible without a net
             | energy loss
             | 
             | That's not true. The reactants must have enough stored
             | potential energy to reduce carbon. You might get that for
             | "free" by using accelerated weathering of rocks (the energy
             | ultimately comes from the radioactive decay in Earth's
             | core).
        
           | rob_c wrote:
           | > I'm of the opinion that no matter the level of cartoon
           | villainy the oil industry is accused of - they're most likely
           | guilty,
           | 
           | Unfortunately their success over the years is showing others
           | like the airline industry how to behave. There's some great
           | "support" getting cloud into the extreme left (who are anti
           | science like the extreme right) who conveniently love talking
           | about chem trail style nonsense... Which is a shame because
           | if we actually made an effort to reduce these clouds we'd
           | make a big step forward to improving things for little
           | effort... (Notice how I'm not saying fix, we're closer to
           | fusion at scale than battery powered commercial flights I
           | suspect)
        
           | cyberax wrote:
           | > In hydrocarbons the majority of energy comes from the
           | oxidation of hydrogen.
           | 
           | That's not quite true.
           | 
           | To add some numbers, the average formula for long-chain
           | hydrocarbons is roughly CH2 (one carbon atom for two hydrogen
           | atoms). The enthalpy of formation of water is -286kJ/mole,
           | and for carbon dioxide it's -394kJ/mole.
           | 
           | Conveniently enough, one mole of long-chain hydrocarbons
           | produces one mole of water and one mole of carbon dioxide.
           | 
           | It's better for pure methane, as with its formula CH4 it
           | produces 2 moles of water for each mole of CO2. So you get
           | 572kJ of energy from hydrogens versus the same 394kJ from
           | carbon.
        
         | semi-extrinsic wrote:
         | I'm sorry, but it's clear from your statements that you don't
         | know what you're talking about.
         | 
         | > capture of CO2 and storage as CO2, mostly in compressed gas
         | from underground, has been proposed by a lot of companies. This
         | is a logistical nightmare that has to be kept up for forever.
         | Better keep that pressure chamber cool and leakproof for 1000
         | years with yearly maintenance. (setting aside how inefficiently
         | that actually stores the carbon even if grabbing it from the
         | air was free)
         | 
         | CO2 is being (as in right now, yes) stored as a supercritical
         | fluid inside saline aquifers deep under the seabed. These
         | reservoirs are known to be leakproof, since they've already
         | been holding pressurized fluids for millions of years. Yes,
         | there is a maximum limit of how much you can pump down, and yes
         | there is a need to achieve good seal on plugging and
         | abandonment. But that's the same as with any other subsea oil &
         | gas well, it's a solved problem.
         | 
         | Think about it - if these formations were not leakproof on
         | geological scale, there wouldn't be any oil and gas for us to
         | extract in the first place.
         | 
         | Now it _really_ annoys me thay researchers are still putting
         | out papers like this, comparing irrelevant strawman scenarios
         | and pretending it 's insightful. There is extremely broad
         | consensus that we will need all the good solutions
         | simultaneously. Stop beating a dead horse.
         | 
         | Furthermore, since we've been dragging our heels on climate
         | change, even if we achieve extremely quick shift to 100%
         | renewables by 2040, we will need CO2 removal from the
         | atmosphere to achieve net negative emissions.
         | 
         | To make an analogy, it won't be enough to cut our spending to
         | match our income, we then need to also pay back our old debts.
        
           | Earw0rm wrote:
           | > Think about it - if these formations were not leakproof on
           | geological scale, there wouldn't be any oil and gas for us to
           | extract in the first place.
           | 
           | Leakproof to one substance doesn't necessarily mean leakproof
           | to another. Heavy oil is hydrophobic and a less mobile,
           | volatile molecule than CO2. Methane otoh is lighter.
           | 
           | That said, CO2 capture mostly works in scenarios where you
           | have a highly concentrated stream AND can afford the weight
           | and energy penalty of the capture apparatus. Good on big
           | chemical/industrial plants, refineries and maybe gas power
           | stations, and worth doing for that reason - industrial
           | processes are some of the hardest to replace or avoid of the
           | big emitters. Likely useless for vehicles and aircraft.
           | 
           | It's very hard to feed 8Bn people without a whole lot of
           | Haber-Bosch though, and hard to do that without methane in,
           | CO2 out. All the more reason to cut down on wasteful uses of
           | both food and energy.
        
             | adrian_b wrote:
             | Supercritical CO2, which behaves rather similar to a
             | liquid, is also hydrophobic, which is why it is one of the
             | best solvents for extracting oils from mixtures with water,
             | being now preferred to older, gasoline-like solvents, which
             | were hard to eliminate after extraction (if the pressure is
             | reduced, supercritical CO2 evaporates from mixtures).
        
             | svnt wrote:
             | Many of these kinds of formations also house natural
             | hydrogen for geologic time periods.
        
             | semi-extrinsic wrote:
             | Yeah, that's not how caprocks on geological formations
             | work. It's not a matter of pore pressure (what porous media
             | people call hydrophobicity). It's a matter of caprocks
             | having zero intrisic permeability.
        
           | thanhhaimai wrote:
           | > Think about it - if these formations were not leakproof on
           | geological scale, there wouldn't be any oil and gas for us to
           | extract in the first place.
           | 
           | This is survivor bias. We only see the sites where it didn't
           | leak too much, and extract from it. The sites that leaked, we
           | don't hear about them (no oil to extract). In fact, a quick
           | search shows that there are many leaking sites (both on land
           | and under the oceans). The argument you present is a case of
           | survivor bias, especially on the time scale of multiple
           | millions years.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _This is survivor bias. We only see the sites where it
             | didn 't leak too much, and extract from it_
             | 
             | ...those are the sites we're pumping the CO2 into.
        
               | holocenenough wrote:
               | "This pressurized tank is doing a great job not leaking,
               | that means it will never leak! Let's keep filling it up,
               | WOO!"
               | 
               | Strawmanning you a bit but surely you see that this line
               | of reasoning leaves a little to be desired?
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _surely you see that this line of reasoning leaves a
               | little to be desired?_
               | 
               | When responding to innumerate "napkin maths" and a
               | sourceless speculation, on one hand, and a multibillion-
               | dollar practice done by experts, on the other hand, no,
               | not really.
        
               | holocenenough wrote:
               | I didn't make the initial post, and 'unsourced in this
               | particular instance' doesn't mean there's no legitimate
               | basis for OP's claims. To be clear, I'm not anti-CCS, but
               | I have an environmental degree and based on my admittedly
               | nonexpert opinion I agree with OP's assertion that it's
               | not really a solution - it's a temporary measure at best.
               | 
               | But yeah I see your point - no multibillion dollar
               | industry filled with experts has ever done anything ill-
               | advised, futile, or environmentally damaging simply for
               | profit. _cough corn ethanol_ Can you imagine how the
               | world would look if that were the case?
               | 
               | https://theicct.org/carbon-capture-and-storage-a-lot-of-
               | eggs...
               | 
               | https://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/2024/09/13/leakage-at-
               | firs...
               | 
               | There are a number of scientific papers that are also
               | skeptical about the long-term viability of underground
               | CCS strategies but they're all paywalled so I didn't link
               | them here, but you should seek them out yourself.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _no multibillion dollar industry filled with experts
               | has ever done anything ill-advised, futile, or
               | environmentally damaging simply for profit_
               | 
               | Sure, they're scandals. Scandals have sourcing. Not
               | supposition. Someone who assumes industry is always evil
               | isn't a reliable source.
               | 
               | I'll note that your sources are both credible and the
               | first in this thread.
        
           | aDyslecticCrow wrote:
           | > CO2 is being (as in right now, yes) stored as a
           | supercritical fluid inside saline aquifers deep under the
           | seabed. These reservoirs are known to be leakproof since
           | they've already been holding pressurized fluids for millions
           | of years.
           | 
           | I simplified it a bit too much. CSS has been in use since the
           | 1980s by the oil industry to push out more oil and natural
           | gas from their wells. However, it is relatively small scale.
           | I've seen proposals and demonstrations of saline aquifer
           | projects, but I know of no currently operational such
           | facility (and can not find it from light googling)
           | 
           | That the chambers could store methane or oil for 100k years
           | is promising, sure, but it doesn't end there. Co2 is a
           | smaller atom that has an easier time moving through small
           | cracks. CO2 mixed with water is also a mild acid that can
           | corrode different rock types.
           | 
           | Even if we had enough stable underground chambers, even if
           | capturing the carbon and compressing it was free. How much
           | could we even offset? We need a green grid first, not
           | instead.
        
             | semi-extrinsic wrote:
             | CO2 is not a smaller atom than CH4 or H2O, on the contrary.
             | And CO2 injection in a saline aquifer in the Utsira
             | formation has been ongoing since 1996, there's been
             | hundreds of research papers on it and multiple seismic
             | imaging studies to confirm permanent trapping.
             | 
             | > We need a green grid first, not instead.
             | 
             | We need to do all of the things at once, unfortunately. If
             | we started investing heavily in renewables in the 1960s,
             | maybe we would have had that luxury.
        
         | gruez wrote:
         | >All you need is napkin maths. We gain energy by turning carbon
         | into carbon dioxide. Now, we need the same energy to reverse
         | it, but with a loss factor.
         | 
         | All the serious proposals for carbon capture involve use cases
         | where it's unfeasible to swap in photovoltaics or whatever. For
         | instance, fertilizer production, cement production, and air
         | transport.
        
           | Earw0rm wrote:
           | The first two examples are feasible, the last not so much.
           | 
           | You need extra energy to power the CCS, and to store the
           | captured CO2.
           | 
           | That's not practical on any airliner. One kilo of jet fuel
           | produces about 3.5x its weight in CO2.
           | 
           | The solution to aviation is "fly less", also "don't air-ship
           | fresh produce which can be moved by sea or road" (and if it
           | can't, don't ship it).
           | 
           | Sorry gents, those Kenyan roses for Valentines are over. Get
           | your loved one some tulips instead.
        
             | gruez wrote:
             | >You need extra energy to power the CCS, and to store the
             | captured CO2.
             | 
             | >That's not practical on any airliner. One kilo of jet fuel
             | produces about 3.5x its weight in CO2.
             | 
             | Carbon capture includes direct air capture, which doesn't
             | come with any weight constraints.
             | 
             | >The solution to aviation is "fly less", also "don't air-
             | ship fresh produce which can be moved by sea or road" (and
             | if it can't, don't ship it).
             | 
             | Any solution that's predicated on "do it less" is going to
             | be DOA politically. The options available voters aren't
             | "electric planes" or "don't fly", they're "do something" or
             | "do nothing". Telling people they're going to have to make
             | upfront sacrifices for vague future benefits is going to be
             | a losing proposition politically. Any solution to climate
             | change is going to have to come from technological
             | advances, not getting people to consume less. US emissions
             | per capita has dropped more than 25% since 1990[1]. That's
             | not because people ate 25% less meat or drove 25% less.
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_
             | by_th...
        
               | Earw0rm wrote:
               | How much does diffuse DAC cost?
               | 
               | Add the price of that on a flight ticket (which we
               | ultimately have to anyway) and we'd be helping address
               | the problem already, before the tech is even deployed.
               | 
               | And the next 35 years - to 2060 - have to be a much
               | steeper reduction than 25%, or the 35 years after that
               | will, one way or another, represent a _forceful_
               | reduction of a lot more than 25%.
               | 
               | Finally is that 25% on a production or consumption basis?
               | Offshoring and deindustrialisation are not trends that
               | are likely to continue, again more for political reasons
               | than anything else.
        
               | gruez wrote:
               | >How much does diffuse DAC cost?
               | 
               | >Add the price of that on a flight ticket (which we
               | ultimately have to anyway) and we'd be helping address
               | the problem already, before the tech is even deployed.
               | 
               | It's $1000/ton today, which works out to a 70% price
               | increase for a new york to london flight. I disagree that
               | would "address the problem already, before the tech is
               | even deployed", because zero chance anyone would vote for
               | it in the first place. That's where technological
               | advancement comes in. Startups claim they can hit
               | $250-$350/ton by 2030[1], which is a much more manageable
               | 21% increase.
               | 
               | >Finally is that 25% on a production or consumption
               | basis? Offshoring and deindustrialisation are not trends
               | that are likely to continue, again more for political
               | reasons than anything else.
               | 
               | It's around 17% on a trade basis[2], but the point
               | stands. Americans haven't eaten 17% less meat, drove 17%
               | less, or bought 17% less stuff.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climeworks
               | 
               | [2] https://ourworldindata.org/consumption-based-co2
        
               | Ntrails wrote:
               | It remains infuriating to be repeatedly lied to by
               | politicians who say they can "hit net zero" etc without
               | any lifestyle changes.
               | 
               | It is utter nonsense and simply ensures every
               | conversation on the topic is grounded largely in fantasy.
               | 
               | There are hard choices to be made and we insist on
               | letting people pretend otherwise. It's infuriating
        
               | gbear605 wrote:
               | Unfortunately Americans as a whole would rather have
               | climate change than lifestyle change. That's a good
               | portion of why Trump is president now. And most countries
               | are in the same position, or want lifestyle change in the
               | sense of using more energy.
               | 
               | If technology can't do it, more climate change is
               | inevitable.
        
               | closewith wrote:
               | The hard choice has been made. The world has decided to
               | accept climate change in order to continue using fossil
               | fuels. It's just not the choice you (or I) want.
        
             | Thorrez wrote:
             | I don't think the idea is to have the capturing machinery
             | on the plane itself. The idea is to have capture machinery
             | on the ground, offsetting the carbon released by the plane.
        
               | Earw0rm wrote:
               | That's right, but then you have to capture it from
               | atmospheric concentrations (430ppm) rather than directly
               | from a waste gas stream at a much higher concentration.
               | 
               | It can be done but the economics don't look good right
               | now. Possible very cheap solar energy in desert regions
               | can change that a bit. Australia have been trying but
               | they didn't get very far with it yet, granted there is
               | still room for solar to get cheaper again.
        
             | wongarsu wrote:
             | Luckily CO2 is fairly fungible. Instead of the airplane
             | capturing its own CO2 we can just capture 3.5t CO2 on the
             | ground for every ton of jet fuel fueled into an airplane.
        
               | ZeroGravitas wrote:
               | If the entire world's electric supply isn't decarbonised
               | at that point then that money would be better spent on
               | deploying renewables somewhere without a 100% clean grid
               | as the article says or electrifying heat or industry.
               | 
               | That has issues with proving the deployment actually
               | displaces carbon but carbon capture has similar issues
               | proving that the carbon is actually permanently removed.
        
               | jfengel wrote:
               | That's the thing. All of these mitigations are
               | meaningless if we still have vast industries predicated
               | on burning fossil carbon.
               | 
               | And once we've eliminated the burning of fossil carbon,
               | the mitigations are unnecessary. Nature will gradually
               | find an equilibrium, and anything we do to speed it up
               | (even removing carbon) is as likely to cause harm as
               | good.
               | 
               | Maybe there is a future where we have so much extra
               | renewables that we can think about trying to undo what
               | we've done. But any effort spent on it now feels like an
               | attempt to decrease the need to eliminate fossil fuels as
               | fast as possible.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _we can just capture 3.5t CO2 on the ground for every
               | ton of jet fuel fueled into an airplane_
               | 
               | Entropy makes one of these _much_ easier. For planes,
               | synthetic jet fuel is the answer.
               | 
               | The sign we're taking jet emissions seriously will be
               | when someone drops the _flygskam_ and hydrogen shtick and
               | passes a synthetic-fuel mandate on private jets. (Less
               | than 3x the cost in America [1].)
               | 
               | [1] https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/us-
               | sustainable-aviati...
        
           | slashdev wrote:
           | Air transport is one of those things that would better offset
           | with carbon capture - maybe even by making synthetic jet
           | fuel, then it's carbon neutral - but very expensive. But
           | really it doesn't matter. Air transport is 2.5% of global
           | CO2. If we solved every other problem first, we could keep
           | pumping oil for airplanes for centuries.
           | 
           | Take the engineer's mindset, reach the low-hanging fruit
           | first. Replace coal with nuclear and natural gas, then start
           | replacing natural gas. Cars don't need to run on gasoline
           | anymore, BEVs are a superior technology. The market is doing
           | its work to decarbonize that all by itself. Slowly at first,
           | and then all at once. If you're middle-aged today, you'll
           | likely live to see the end of gasoline cars. We can speed
           | things along by removing subsidies on fossil fuels or
           | offsetting them with green incentives.
        
             | fxtentacle wrote:
             | The reason why nobody is replacing coal with nuclear is
             | that the former is cheap and the latter is expensive. And
             | at the moment, higher energy prices are a very though sell,
             | politically, even if everyone agrees that we don't want to
             | leave scorched earth for our kids.
        
               | slashdev wrote:
               | Only because the coal power plant doesn't have to pay for
               | the negative externalities.
        
             | ViewTrick1002 wrote:
             | Or just skip the nuclear power step and go directly to
             | renewables with storage since it is vastly cheaper and the
             | deployment time is counted in months rather than decades.
        
             | jmb99 wrote:
             | > BEVs are a superior technology
             | 
             | While BEVs have a lot of benefits, they are still
             | objectively inferior to ICE vehicles. They're (in most
             | cases substantially) more expensive, less energy dense by
             | mass and volume, and require planning for refuelling
             | (especially if used in areas outside of main city centres
             | or for long driving, or if you live in an apartment without
             | access to a charger at home). Not to mention most grids
             | being nowhere near able to support the entire population of
             | car drivers fast-charging their cars during rush hour.
             | Gasoline-powered cars are objectively easier to own and
             | use.
             | 
             | The real solution is public transit, and convincing people
             | for whom public transit is impossible that switching to
             | BEVs is worthwhile, even with their drawbacks. Telling
             | people that BEVs are superior technology is
             | counterproductive though, when there are still very clear
             | problems with them.
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | > They're (in most cases substantially) more expensive,
               | less energy dense by mass and volume, and require
               | planning for refuelling (especially if used in areas
               | outside of main city centres or for long driving, or if
               | you live in an apartment without access to a charger at
               | home).
               | 
               | The most popular BEVs already cost less than the average
               | new car and the price will continue to decline as long as
               | battery prices do. Ranges of ~300 miles are common,
               | meanwhile the average commute is 42 miles, so charging at
               | home is sufficient for the vast majority of usage and is
               | more convenient than buying gas. Apartments will install
               | chargers as electric vehicles become more common.
               | 
               | For long trips, you begin your day having charged
               | overnight and then add 200 miles of range at a
               | supercharger in 15 minutes. That 500 miles is more than 8
               | hours of driving at 60MPH and it cost you 15 minutes. For
               | people who make such long trips on a regular basis there
               | will be cars with larger batteries and more range so that
               | "overnight plus once in the middle" gets back to being
               | just overnight.
               | 
               | > Not to mention most grids being nowhere near able to
               | support the entire population of car drivers fast-
               | charging their cars during rush hour.
               | 
               | This is the least interesting problem. Upgrading power
               | grids is a known process involving only widely deployed
               | existing technologies.
               | 
               | > The real solution is public transit
               | 
               | Public transit doesn't work in the suburbs, the majority
               | of the population lives in suburban or rural areas and
               | changing that would take decades of new housing
               | construction which is currently prohibited by law.
        
               | cloverich wrote:
               | > Not to mention most grids being nowhere near able to
               | support the entire population of car drivers fast-
               | charging their cars during rush hour.
               | 
               | Feels a bit like a straw man. Most commuters aren't
               | extending beyond the range of their vehicle for work
               | commutes, and would charge at home or office on solar. I
               | agree they should not be sold as though there are no
               | trade offs, but after extensive research it feels that
               | for a primarily commuter scenario, never having to stop
               | for gas, charging at home, etc, would be not only
               | practical but actually superior. I frequently have to gas
               | up mid week and with a busy job and kids, it is an actual
               | hassle that would be nice to be a nice upgrade.
        
               | slashdev wrote:
               | I can tell you don't own a BEV.
               | 
               | The range is a non issue 99% of the time when you're
               | driving around in your city. Charging at home is both
               | cheap and super convenient.
               | 
               | Maintenance is cheaper, the car lasts longer.
               | 
               | I don't know a single person who buys a BEV and goes
               | back. I know many who go the other direction.
               | 
               | And as adoption rises and technology improves the case
               | will get stronger and stronger.
        
               | cyberax wrote:
               | > While BEVs have a lot of benefits, they are still
               | objectively inferior to ICE vehicles.
               | 
               | This hasn't been true for a couple of years. China is an
               | excellent example of that, its market flipped to EVs
               | virtually overnight once the benefits of EVs became
               | clear. Last year, 48% of all the new cars sold in China
               | were EVs, and this year it's projected to be around 60%.
               | 
               | > The real solution is public transit
               | 
               | No, it's not. Public transit is nothing but a distilled
               | misery concentrator. Transit is also _not_ more CO2
               | effective than small-to-medium EVs when the carbon
               | footprint of their _drivers_ is taken into the account.
        
             | lukan wrote:
             | "But really it doesn't matter. Air transport is 2.5% of
             | global CO2."
             | 
             | Because most people still cannot afford flying. If the
             | world gets richer, more people want the privilege of
             | flying. And it is not like we have an excess budget of CO2.
             | Everything we reduce helps, so a carbon tax on jet fuel
             | might be a good start. That is a low hanging fruit.
             | 
             | Spreading nuclear reactors worldwide really is not. That
             | would be a very hard fruit, with lots of potential side
             | effects. Or do you think bangladesh will build to standards
             | you think are safe?
        
           | mapt wrote:
           | Aviation fuel has a trivial replacement in renewable
           | biofuels, and three nontrivial replacements in liquid
           | hydrogen combustion, liquid hydrogen fuel cells, and for
           | short flights in battery power.
        
             | gruez wrote:
             | >trivial replacement in renewable biofuels
             | 
             | That's basically direct air capture with extra steps. All
             | the carbon in those biofuels is coming from somewhere (the
             | air).
        
               | cyberax wrote:
               | Yeah, but you basically are using self-replicating solar-
               | powered machinery (aka "plants") to capture it.
        
         | pfdietz wrote:
         | Storing the CO2 after it's been separated is the easy part.
         | Already CO2 is regularly injected underground to enhance oil
         | extraction, and the CO2 sequestered is much greater than the
         | CO2 released by burning the oil.
        
           | aDyslecticCrow wrote:
           | >CO2 sequestered is much greater than the CO2 released by
           | burning the oil.
           | 
           | Do check your source on that. Cause I cannot find it. The
           | number I could find is muuuch lower than the extracted oil
           | worth of co2.
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | I overstated it, and thank you for calling me on that, but
             | one can find references that say it can breakeven.
             | 
             | For example:
             | 
             | https://netl.doe.gov/research/coal/energy-
             | systems/gasificati...
             | 
             | "each ton [of CO2] can yield 2-3 barrels of oil"
             | 
             | Burning a barrel of oil produces 468 kg of CO2, so 2
             | barrels would be slightly carbon negative.
        
         | SilasX wrote:
         | >All you need is napkin maths. We gain energy by turning carbon
         | into carbon dioxide. Now, we need the same energy to reverse
         | it, but with a loss factor.
         | 
         | That's just not true. While the conclusion may be correct
         | (about it not being feasible), it's something that would depend
         | on more that just this first-principles analysis. Remember, the
         | goal is only that the output is "not atmospheric CO2". So that
         | means it could be CO2 somewhere else, or some lower energy
         | state of the carbon, or even a higher energy state that isn't
         | as high as the fuel that was burned to produce it.
         | 
         | And while, again, those methods might not be feasible, it
         | depends on much more than the (false) premise that the only way
         | involves completely reversing whatever process was originally
         | used to extract the energy.
        
           | aDyslecticCrow wrote:
           | Carbon has a few other molecules it likes to bind to, but
           | narrowing it down to what is actually abundant limits you to
           | basically oxygen, hydrogen and carbon. of those, two of them
           | are what we burned, and one of them is our problem.
           | 
           | Someone else pointed out, though, that you can burn
           | hydrocarbon (carbon and hydrogen chains, aka methane and oil)
           | and turn it into coal (carbon-carbon).
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | That's just not right.
             | 
             | Carbon dioxide will bind with just about any reactive metal
             | out there. Yes, there is oxygen involved, but Earth is full
             | of rocks that could absorb it.
        
             | SilasX wrote:
             | Which, again, is still a different argument than the one
             | you originally made.
        
         | WhyNotHugo wrote:
         | This was intuitively obvious already, but there's still great
         | value is having proper research prove this too. Anyone building
         | an argument on "carbon capture is more costly" so far had the
         | burden of proving this, even if it is intuitively obvious. Now
         | they can cite existing research and move on with their point.
        
           | zelphirkalt wrote:
           | I feel like probably not much has changed. People, who will
           | listen and think a little for themselves, will already be
           | able to come to the conclusion, that it is better not to put
           | the CO2 out in the first place. And those who are typically
           | pretending to only not believe it because one cannot provide
           | a research article, are very likely to just try to discredit
           | the research. Some people are just so lost, that you cannot
           | change their mind with facts, whatever those facts are, and
           | whatever you do. They do not want to. They want you to spend
           | more time and effort on them than is proportionate.
        
             | goatlover wrote:
             | Putting CO2 out in the first place is how the global
             | economy got to where it is today. It's better not to put
             | CO2 out in the first place except for when it makes more
             | economic sense. There are tradeoffs involved. To the extent
             | renewables can replace outputting greenhouse gases, then
             | that makes more sense. But where they still can't, then it
             | doesn't make sense. And we likely will still need to remove
             | some of that CO2 in the future.
        
           | joe_the_user wrote:
           | Arguing with someone who starts demanding your obvious claim
           | has the burden of proof is useless. Any proof you offer is
           | going to contain an obvious step or assumption and they
           | demand proof for that too.
        
         | perching_aix wrote:
         | > We gain energy by turning carbon into carbon dioxide.
         | 
         | But we don't [only]. A significant amount comes from nuclear
         | power or renewables, especially in specific countries.
        
           | afiori wrote:
           | This is irrelevant; the total energy cycle of a green grid
           | can be abstracted as fossil_production + green_production +
           | carbon_capture_consumption + all_other_uses. Since
           | fossil_production < carbon_capture_consumption it is best to
           | simply set them both to zero
        
             | perching_aix wrote:
             | I don't really follow, what you outline seems to be a
             | different argument the person I replied to outlined.
        
         | BobbyTables2 wrote:
         | I'm also amazed people don't talk more about reducing
         | consumption than carbon capture.
         | 
         | It boggles my mind that a StarBucks coffee, drank in a few
         | minutes involves a lined paper cup, plastic lid, plastic
         | stopper, corrugated holder ring.
         | 
         | Using disposable plastic utensils in dine-in restaurants also
         | bothers me.
         | 
         | All the energy spent to gather/create/transport the raw
         | materials, produce the cup, etc, store it in a warehouse,
         | transport to the restaurant... Seems massively inefficient for
         | such a short use.
         | 
         | Yeah, a dishwasher isn't free either but surely heating some
         | water to clean reusable things is got to be much better than
         | disposable trash.
         | 
         | Heck, compared to plastic ware and coffee cups, disposable
         | plastic grocery bags almost seem amazingly better in terms of
         | utility vs waste. (Less material)
        
           | esarbe wrote:
           | Because for many people reducing consumption reeks of
           | poverty.
           | 
           | They've grown up in a world where everything just yells
           | _more! more!_ at them. It 's the dominant paradigm of our
           | times - growth above everything. Conspicuous consumption as a
           | measure of wealth.
           | 
           | It's become so absurd that even the mere suggestion of
           | improving efficiency - at the consumer level - is met with
           | the outcry of "forcing people into poverty". We are rich, so
           | we can afford to be wasteful. Not be wasteful means poverty.
           | 
           | It's insanity.
        
           | dublinben wrote:
           | There's no profit motive behind reducing consumption to lower
           | emissions, so it's not a message being pushed by companies.
           | It's obviously the easiest way for most people to reduce
           | their environmental impact though, but it's always been very
           | unpopular to tell people to 'spend less, save more.'
        
         | bee_rider wrote:
         | > All you need is napkin maths. We gain energy by turning
         | carbon into carbon dioxide. Now, we need the same energy to
         | reverse it, but with a loss factor.
         | 
         | Hmm. Actually. I don't think this is quite "back of the napkin
         | math," which usually involves _some_ figures, if just only very
         | rough ones with lots of rounding.
         | 
         | This seems more like an argument from basic principle in the
         | style of "I'll reject any proposal of a perpetual motion
         | machine because, however clever, it fundamentally can't produce
         | power." And I don't think your fundamental principle here
         | really is correct actually.
         | 
         | Some ideas around carbon capture are basically to do a chemical
         | process that releases some energy, and then make sure the
         | byproducts don't escape, and bury them underground, right?
         | There's no fundamental reason that this should be impossible. I
         | mean it's obviously possible to take a log, burn it in a very
         | big airtight metal box (very big, so there's enough oxygen in
         | there to fully burn the thing), the box will heat up, and then
         | the byproducts will all be in the box, so you just don't open
         | it. This is a silly contraption but there's obviously no
         | fundamental law of physics being violated, so it must not be
         | physically impossible.
         | 
         | I'm unhappy to write this because I agree with your conclusion.
         | Carbon capture is mostly bullshit. But it is bullshit for
         | complicated reasons, not simple or fundamental ones, I think.
        
           | thinkcontext wrote:
           | There's an idea to do this with old oil and gas wells. Only
           | hydrogen comes out of the well, the carbon stays underground.
           | 
           | https://fuelcellsworks.com/news/protonh2-launches-project-
           | ap...
        
         | mnky9800n wrote:
         | I'm not going to argue the economics of it but the co2 is
         | typically assumed to mineralise when injected into rocks like
         | basalts ands peridotites which are the primary targets for co2
         | sequestration. It's not stored highly pressurised under ground.
         | It is absorbed by the rocks. This has been demonstrated in both
         | the lab and the environment.
        
           | Jordanpomeroy wrote:
           | This is my understanding as well. And the logistics of doing
           | this can be simplified by re-using oil and gas facilities.
           | Regardless of your feelings and levels of skepticism about
           | oil and gas, this seems like the most straight-forward and
           | low-energy path forward to me.
        
         | Tuna-Fish wrote:
         | > All you need is napkin maths. We gain energy by turning
         | carbon into carbon dioxide. Now, we need the same energy to
         | reverse it, but with a loss factor.
         | 
         | No, we don't.
         | 
         | CO2 in the atmosphere is not the lowest-energy state in the
         | system. If CO2 stopped being added to the atmosphere, it would
         | eventually all be consumed out by chemical weathering of
         | silicate rocks into carbonates, because that's an exothermic
         | reaction that consumes CO2.
         | 
         | All the actually promising carbon capture proposals are
         | essentially ways to speed up chemical weathering. The limiting
         | factor here is surface area; the process is naturally very
         | slow, and only occurs at an appreciable rate on the exposed
         | surfaces of rocks in shallow water. None of them are cost-
         | effective *yet* (and might never be), but there is not some
         | one-sentence gotcha answer that prevents them from eventually
         | being successful. They are not fighting against physics.
        
           | forgetfreeman wrote:
           | Um, no. The limiting factors are all still economic. If you
           | want to try to rely on mineral weathering to reduce
           | atmospheric CO2 any reasonable amount you now have to finance
           | the quarrying, crushing to fine power, transport, and
           | distribution of gigatons of stone or engineer a suitable
           | replacement which replaces quarry and processing costs with
           | input stock acquisition and synthesis leaving transportation
           | and distribution untouched.
        
         | hedora wrote:
         | Basic thermodynamics say atmospheric carbon capture will be
         | more expensive than switching to renewables.
         | 
         | However, we're already committed to carbon capture because
         | corrupt politicians decided not to switch to renewables in the
         | 1980's, and will continue to block them for at least another
         | decade (if we only want to wait another ten years to take
         | action, we'll need to somehow magically replace Trump with
         | democrats tomorrow).
        
         | HPsquared wrote:
         | It's all in the details, not really as simple as the napkin
         | math. The CO2 capture step obviously doesn't use ALL the energy
         | released from burning the fuel. You're not converting the CO2
         | back into fuel, just capturing it and sequestering it somehow.
         | It's a question of capital and operating expense (and risks) of
         | the process overall.
        
         | tomas789 wrote:
         | This assumes that we reverse the reaction. That does not need
         | to be the case. We can put it back into the ground. It can
         | either stay where natgas or crude used to be or we can
         | basically turn that into rock (don't know details but there is
         | a process to do that). Or it can be put in salt caverns.
         | 
         | Either way we still need to capture the CO and CO2 from flue
         | gas which is costly even from point sources and way worse from
         | DAC. Unless we do oxyburning or fosil fuels which is a hack but
         | you need a source of cheap oxygen which we don't have unless we
         | dramatically scale up electrolysis.
        
         | tzs wrote:
         | How about for the long term?
         | 
         | My napkin math last time I did it said that if we took the
         | current annual production of solar panels and used it to built
         | solar farms in the world's subtropical deserts and built carbon
         | direct air capture (DAC) plants in those deserts powered by
         | those solar farms (using the energy requirements per kg of
         | capture that current DAC plants achieve), and continued doing
         | this each year, in around 200 years we'd be removing about 10%
         | more CO2 per year than we'd be emitting assuming that the human
         | population peaks as expected somewhere in the 10-11 billion
         | range and the per capita CO2 emissions do not go much higher
         | than they are now.
         | 
         | Using the entire current annual production of solar panels for
         | this is clearly impractical now, but if production of solar
         | panels continues its current growth trends for several more
         | years we should reach a point where diverting an amount equal
         | to current production might be practical.
        
         | vegetablepotpie wrote:
         | We're going to lose economic growth because of climate change,
         | "Staying under the 2C threshold could limit average regional
         | income loss to 20 percent compared to 60 percent" [1]. Whether
         | it will be significant amount, or a devastating amount is still
         | to be determined. US GDP is $20T, and the difference between
         | low warming and high warming is 40% loss! This means we could
         | spend up to $8T a year to address climate change and it would
         | still make economic sense.
         | 
         | The Inflation Reduction Act authorized $370B of spending over
         | 10 years on climate and energy [2]. This is about 0.1% of
         | annual GDP and about 0.4% of what we could be investing to
         | address this. If we spent even a fraction more, we could
         | rapidly convert housing and transportation to electric, make
         | electrical grids renewable, and decarbonization manufacturing,
         | we have the technology to do this. We can do this, the most
         | important thing is to tell others we can, and particularly
         | people with power and influence.
         | 
         | [1] https://phys.org/news/2024-04-climate-impacts-global-
         | gdp.htm...
         | 
         | [2] https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/27/manchin-schumer-
         | sen...
        
           | Voultapher wrote:
           | As much as I'm in favor of moving towards renewables, we are
           | still destroying our biosphere, and the resources needed for
           | renewables are not renewable ...
           | 
           | > Energy transition aspirations are similar. The goal is
           | powering modernity, not addressing the sixth mass extinction.
           | Sure, it could mitigate the CO2 threat (to modernity), but
           | why does the fox care when its decline ultimately traces
           | primarily to things like deforestation, habitat
           | fragmentation, agricultural runoff, pollution, pesticides,
           | mining, manufacturing, or in short: modernity. Pursuit of a
           | giant energy infrastructure replacement requires tremendous
           | material extraction--directly driving many of these ills--
           | only to then provide the energetic means to keep doing all
           | these same things that abundant evidence warns is a
           | prescription for termination of the community of life.
           | 
           | https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2022/09/death-by-hockey-sticks/
           | 
           | Humanity needs to let go of the fantasy of endless growth,
           | which permeates through our cultures, economies and politics.
           | Life on this earth is a co-op, you can't win by being the
           | last species alive, or at least your wining will look very
           | sad and be short lived. If you think endless growth is a
           | viable strategy, go and ask your neighborhood slime mold in a
           | petri dish what it thinks.
        
           | adamsch wrote:
           | precisely, fossil fuels are ruining the economy
        
         | cperciva wrote:
         | _All you need is napkin maths. We gain energy by turning carbon
         | into carbon dioxide. Now, we need the same energy to reverse
         | it, but with a loss factor._
         | 
         | In addition to the chemistry other people have mentioned -- if
         | we burn hydrocarbons and then capture carbon we're still net
         | positive H -> H2O, capturing carbon as carbonate rocks can be
         | less expensive than splitting CO2 to C and O2, etc -- most
         | serious proposals for carbon capture have involved using
         | _cheap_ electricity, e.g. solar power in the middle of the day.
         | 
         | It's quite possible that using cheap midday electricity to
         | generate methane (which can be easily stored in large
         | quantities) which is then burned in gas "peakers" when power is
         | expensive would be _economically_ profitable despite not being
         | _thermodynamically_ profitable.
        
         | DanHulton wrote:
         | And the number one problem that any method of carbon capture
         | that involves moving things around, is that you have to add the
         | carbon expenditure of that transportation into the mix. You
         | wanna create charcoal and spread it over crop fields? You then
         | have to transfer that charcoal. You want to embed CO2 in
         | concrete and bury the concrete? You have to move the concrete.
         | (You can use it for building, but there's additional
         | infrastructure for transporting the CO2 to the concrete or
         | vice-versa there as well.)
         | 
         | So many of the "barely break even" concepts don't even come
         | close due to this transportation factor. Even if you use solar
         | to generate electricity to power this transportation, we don't
         | have excess solar yet - that's capacity that's being used for
         | this new expense, not being used to offset existing expenses.
         | 
         | That said, I'm hopeful that research, refinement, and excess
         | renewable grid capacity will eventually make it worthwhile to
         | do this in addition to reducing our fossil fuel usage, but we
         | just _gotta_ reduce our fossil fuel usage. It's not negotiable
         | anymore, and heck, never was.
        
       | nlitened wrote:
       | Could someone please explain how could carbon capture ever work?
       | To me it looks as if it is a mathematically impossible thing: if
       | you produce energy by releasing carbon, you would need to expend
       | even more energy to capture the same carbon back, so it is
       | impossible -- there's no way to produce required energy to do so.
       | And if you had such an huge and cheap energy source for carbon
       | capture, you wouldn't burn carbon in the first place -- you'd use
       | that energy source instead.
       | 
       | What am I missing? Am I stupid, or the people who talk about
       | carbon capture are ridiculously dishonest?
        
         | mrmanner wrote:
         | The carbon dioxide is captured and stored, the actual carbon
         | isn't returned to whatever form it was before burning. So
         | theoretically it _can_ work (but, as it turns out, it still
         | doesn't make sense).
        
         | exe34 wrote:
         | I've always thought of carbon capture as something you do later
         | in the timeline, after burning carbon to get you to a society
         | that can make the transition to green energy.
         | 
         | this might be the case for example if you need a certain amount
         | of innovation and that requires a certain critical mass of
         | brains thinking over the problem.
         | 
         | or maybe if you're an accelerationista, you want AI to solve it
         | for you and burning carbon now to train it might make sense.
         | 
         | but I don't think the idea is to ever burn carbon to capture
         | carbon.
        
         | loeg wrote:
         | You would produce the energy without releasing carbon.
        
         | bsdetector wrote:
         | You're thinking about energy and not cost.
         | 
         | For example, when solar plus direct air capture can remove a
         | ton of CO2 for cheaper than it costs a container ship not to
         | emit that CO2 then it's reduced cost for the same CO2 outcome
         | even though it's using more total energy.
         | 
         | Regardless of whether it actually makes sense to capture
         | carbon, you'll see a lot of sky-is-falling fanatics and vested
         | interests dismissing it because it caps the price of carbon
         | credits and limits economic damage estimates. You can't price
         | CO2 at $500/ton to necessitate change when it only costs
         | $200/ton to capture it - without quickly going bankrupt that
         | is.
         | 
         | This is why the IPCC not even attempting to evaluate mechanical
         | capture shows they aren't serious about solving the problem.
         | They seemingly exist to push a fear narrative, and having an
         | upper bound on the impact of CO2 limits their ability to do so.
        
         | usefulcat wrote:
         | As you point out, it probably doesn't ever make sense to use
         | carbon capture to "offset" energy-related emissions. Probably
         | the only way it would make sense would be as a way to reduce
         | the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere _after_ we're no longer
         | burning previously sequestered carbon.
        
       | legitster wrote:
       | This is kind of a silly analysis. Solar power is already the
       | cheapest source of electricity ever created by man per kwh. The
       | problem is geography, storage capacity, and load planning.
       | 
       | If we're talking purely about future hypotheticals, who's to know
       | if carbon scrubbers are less cost effective than city-sized
       | lithium storage facilities.
        
         | selfhoster wrote:
         | Except we we replaced all current forms of power generation
         | with wind and solar, it would be more expensive:
         | 
         | https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/would-getting-all-our-electr...
        
           | epistasis wrote:
           | That's just one guy's opinion, namely:
           | 
           | > Richard Schmalensee, Howard W. Johnson Professor of
           | Management Emeritus, Professor of Economics Emeritus, and
           | Dean Emeritus of the MIT Sloan School of Management
           | 
           | An economics and b-school professor is not equipped to
           | evaluate a multi-decade transition, and he apparently hasn't
           | even taken into account how batteries are falling in cost
           | like solar and wind are.
           | 
           | Those who do cost-optimal grid planning find that wind,
           | solar, storage, our existing nuclear result in a grid that is
           | cheaper than our current grid. However the problem is that we
           | don't do grid planning based on what costs the least, we do
           | small incremental changes from utilities that are using cost
           | estimates that are years out of date, and we don't think
           | about making large scale changes that result in big cost
           | changes.
           | 
           | And one other thing about looking about predictions from the
           | past with grid modeling, everybody always underestimated the
           | rate of how fast solar and wind prices fall. They are doing
           | the same for batteries now.
        
             | loeg wrote:
             | The fine article is also just one guy's opinion. Notably
             | someone who sues people who disagree with him.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Z._Jacobson#Critiques_of
             | _...
        
               | epistasis wrote:
               | Technically, not just one guy, there are coauthors:
               | Danning Fu, Daniel J. Sambor, Andreas Muhlbauer:
               | 
               | https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.4c10686
               | 
               | I'm not a huge fan of Jacobson's behavior, and he has
               | made some mistakes, but he's also been very very right on
               | a lot of things.
               | 
               | And while a single paper is a lot more reliable than a
               | single person writing an editorial on an MIT site, it is
               | still a single paper and must be taken as a pointer
               | towards the truth, rather than truth revealed.
        
           | AlienRobot wrote:
           | I don't think that's what he is saying.
           | 
           | >Would switching entirely to these clean energy sources raise
           | the price of electricity? Yes--at least if you don't count
           | the cost of the environmental damage caused by fossil fuels,
           | says Richard Schmalensee, MIT's Howard W. Johnson Professor
           | of Management Emeritus, Professor of Economics Emeritus, and
           | Dean Emeritus of the MIT Sloan School of Management..
           | 
           | The electricity bill will be more expensive, but that's only
           | because the damages to the environment caused by carbon are
           | externalized costs.
           | 
           | Presumably, if those externalized costs did show up in the
           | electricity bill today, then it would get cheaper if we
           | switched to renewable.
           | 
           | >"If you take into account the total cost of running a system
           | that puts CO2 into the air, [then renewables] will be
           | cheaper," Schmalensee says
        
       | jokoon wrote:
       | We need to have a battery checklist equivalent for carbon
       | capture:
       | 
       | [ ] how much carbon is captured by KW?
       | 
       | [ ] are there expected improvement in the technology in the
       | future 30 years?
       | 
       | [ ] and what do physicists say about it?
       | 
       | [ ] is it more efficient than photosynthesis?
       | 
       | [ ] how mature is the technology compared to other methods?
       | 
       | [ ] who funds it?
        
       | killjoywashere wrote:
       | Is it possible to just pump a slurry of corn and various pulp
       | products into dead oil wells?
        
         | semi-extrinsic wrote:
         | Nope. You need to understand that an oil reservoir is 100%
         | rock, but a rock that is porous on the microlevel. Stuff that
         | gets pumped down needs to be a proper fluid, not just a slurry,
         | or it will just clog the pores in half an hour.
        
         | alexose wrote:
         | Pretty much, yeah. Vaulted Deep (https://vaulteddeep.com/) is
         | doing a version of this.
        
       | GuB-42 wrote:
       | The study is considering extremes, but that's not realistic.
       | 
       | Completely switching to renewables will be more expensive than
       | planting some trees for instance. If we want the most cost
       | effective methods, it will be a mix of both, maybe more on the
       | "burning less fossil fuels" side than on carbon capture, but
       | neither extreme make sense.
       | 
       | And it may turn out that a complete switch to renewables may not
       | be enough anyways. We may need carbon capture too, and maybe some
       | geoengineering.
        
         | ashoeafoot wrote:
         | That very same trees that regularly go up in climate change
         | caused forrest fires? Preferable eucalyptus ?
         | 
         | Why not grow algea and dump them down the gravity well into the
         | dead, dark ocean, into some high salinity pit.
        
         | loeg wrote:
         | The dollars don't actually substitute, either. We can spend on
         | both more than we'd be willing to spend only on renewable
         | sources.
        
       | Matumio wrote:
       | If you wonder whether you could at least capture CO2 directly
       | from the combustion process (instead of out of thin air), well
       | yes that's cheaper but still too expensive.
       | 
       | The current CCS projects use highly concentrated CO2 sources,
       | while the usual combustion process will generate air with only a
       | few percent of CO2. There was an article last year about the
       | Hammerfest LNG plant. They have a CCS project nearby, but found
       | it cheaper to electrify the plant:
       | https://industrydecarbonization.com/news/is-carbon-capture-a...
        
       | tyronehed wrote:
       | Every bit of opposition to climate change mitigation comes from
       | the oil industry. How incredibly evil and vile they are for being
       | willing to damage the world and our environment just to make a
       | buck.
        
         | twodave wrote:
         | There's certainly some of this, and there are also a lot of
         | people living in difficult geographies that rely on oil. Take
         | away global reliance on oil and these people either have to
         | move somewhere else (and many of them aren't exactly welcome in
         | their neighboring countries) or else they die, starving, and in
         | the dark. I'm not really as sympathetic to this issue as I
         | sound, but I don't think the characterization of 100% greed and
         | evil is totally fair, either.
        
       | twodave wrote:
       | I guess I don't see how any of this is really relevant today. Can
       | someone help explain? My thought process is telling me that by
       | far the worst environmental offender (China) is on the front end
       | of a population collapse that will pretty much serve to self-
       | correct them from an environmental standpoint. That could take 30
       | years at most?
       | 
       | I'm not sure there's any sort of program we could implement in
       | that time frame that really moves the needle, and when it happens
       | most of the world's capacity to build things like solar cells and
       | wind farms will need to be re-built, because we won't be getting
       | a lot of those components we need from China anymore.
       | 
       | And who knows? By then maybe we look up at a smaller global
       | population that's largely de-globalized and decide nothing needs
       | doing.
       | 
       | In the short term it's a shame because IMO the #1 (by far, not
       | close) contributor to global pollution doesn't even make it to
       | the table in these sorts of discussions.
        
         | newyankee wrote:
         | China is not the worst offender. You are disregarding per
         | capita, historical cumulative emissions and outsourced
         | emissions. I am willing to bet that they have the resources,
         | will and execution speed to decarbonise fast though, largely
         | due to surplus solar and lots of batteries but also significant
         | investments in wind and Nuclear.
         | 
         | I am not sure why a lot of Americans do not talk about
         | efficiency in their own backyard or are even unwilling to
         | consider a smaller footprint (it is like almost in the DNA of
         | the country)
        
           | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
           | The US is the worst offender by far, and seems hell bent on
           | getting worse still.
           | 
           | I wish we would acknowledge it, even just among ourselves
           | would be a great start.
        
           | wang_li wrote:
           | China is #1 in annual emissions and is increasing every year
           | and plans to continue increasing until at least 2030, is a
           | larger annual emitter than all of Europe combined, and is #2
           | in total emissions since 1750. In fact, has released more
           | than all of Europe combined since 1750.
           | 
           | Per capita is irrelevant. The thermodynamic system doesn't
           | give a shit about how many people there are, all that matters
           | is the amount of CO2. If you want to make some kind of moral
           | argument you can't avoid asking the question of whether it's
           | moral to have a kid at all. Unless you are prepared to
           | consign your children to being a hunter gatherer until they
           | die, they will add CO2 to the atmosphere.
           | 
           | Consider me and my neighbor, I am single and emit 1000 tons
           | of carbon per year, he and his wife emit 3000 tons of carbon
           | per year. They have triplets and increase their emissions by
           | 500 tons per year. But somehow they are better than me now
           | because on a per capita basis their house is only 700 tons
           | per year per person while I'm still at 1000 tons per year?
           | Sorry, I'm not reducing my lifestyle because they like to
           | fuck.
           | 
           | If you want to measure a country or population by some metric
           | other than total emissions, you should measure something like
           | tons per quality of life or human development or something
           | that demonstrates that the emissions are being used
           | efficiently to increase overall human flourishing.
        
             | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
             | Per-capita is relevant because as individuals, we find it
             | easier to get a mental grasp on the lifestyles of other
             | individuals than the actions of a nation state. Contrasting
             | more/less efficient lifestyles is a way to understand our
             | contribution to this problem.
             | 
             | Do we need to put a leash on our corporations and
             | governments so that they stop making policies that will
             | kill our children? Absolutely, let's do that. Do we need to
             | be more thoughtful about population growth? Certainly.
             | 
             | But when it comes down to crafting policies that will be
             | effective, it has to make sense on the both micro and macro
             | scales. Holding per-capita measures as irrelevant hides the
             | details that we're going to need to fix this.
        
           | Earw0rm wrote:
           | A narrow idea of what constitutes freedom ("an F-650 with a
           | full gun rack", but not "guaranteed healthcare for everyone
           | that needs it", or "freedom from having to deal with
           | braindead morons with F-650s and rifles", or "public goods
           | and walkable cities").
           | 
           | And you're spot on as regards China, and India as well. We've
           | had a century or two to get rich off burning this stuff, they
           | have not.
        
         | slothtrop wrote:
         | The rest of east Asia is currently developing at a faster pace
         | (e.g. Vietnam), with increasing demand for goods and services.
         | China provides, therefore their output is increasing.
        
           | twodave wrote:
           | Perhaps, and also we already know in 40 years many more of
           | their infrastructure projects will lie empty and unused than
           | already do. They're literally burning their way to their
           | doom, and they may take globalization with them.
        
             | slothtrop wrote:
             | Following their real estate bubble, I'm not sure how much
             | more of that we'll see. Xi seems to want to double-down on
             | manufacturing.
             | 
             | They're technically the global leader in solar, scaling up
             | faster than everyone else.
        
       | leafario2 wrote:
       | Am I wrong in assuming that after achieving a reduction in
       | emissions, the carbon in the atmosphere should be ideally
       | absorbed again?
        
       | buckle8017 wrote:
       | They apply a "model" which is not described to justify an
       | artificially low price for solar power delivered to retail
       | customers.
       | 
       | In reality solar is more expensive than natural gas when reliably
       | delivered. Batteries, over provisioning, fly wheels, and finally
       | backup idle gas power plants are not surprisingly very expensive.
        
       | D_Alex wrote:
       | Wow. Researchers could have found this by reading Hacker News
       | from 2019.
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19579185#19579943
        
       | thelastgallon wrote:
       | Carbon capture is our money being used to pay oil industry. It is
       | for enhanced oil recovery. It is straight up theft with
       | environmental marketing!
       | 
       | Twenty-seven DAC plants have been commissioned to date worldwide,
       | capturing almost 0.01 Mt CO2/year. Thats the equivalent of 2000
       | EVs.
       | 
       | ---
       | 
       | We pay in 8+ different ways for fossil fuels:
       | 
       | (1) Subsidies of trillions of dollars per year
       | 
       | (2) Ethanol and biodiesel subsidies
       | 
       | (3) Pay at the pump (or electricity)
       | 
       | (4) Pay for carbon capture to help oil companies extract more oil
       | 
       | (5) Pay for the consequences of climate change (a) increase of
       | home insurance (b) bailouts of insurance and utility providers
       | (c) dealing with the direct costs of climate change
       | 
       | (6) Health costs! Pollution is directly linked to every disease
       | (except STIs?). Air Pollution Kills 10 Million People a Year.
       | Think of all the cancers, cardiovascular, metabolic, every
       | biological systems.
       | 
       | (7) We pay a cost of other pollutants. Lead (thank you oil
       | industry!), mercury (thank you coal industry!). Fish was a source
       | of food, the best kind of renewable food, where you do absolutely
       | nothing other than catch it! This source is now gone, there is so
       | much mercury in fish, that all recommendations of fish are to
       | limit the number of servings!
       | 
       | (8) Every person on the planet is paying a fossil fuel tax (the 5
       | above), to the super super rich. It is a transfer of wealth from
       | everyone to about ~100 people. This money is used to buy all
       | assets (real estate), stocks and everything else, enabling the
       | super wealthy to extract every more wealth from every sector of
       | the economy.
       | 
       | ---
       | 
       | Lets talk about the smallest tax (subsidy!) we pay one of the 6
       | listed about, ethanol subsidies. 40 million acres are used to
       | grow corn for ethanol subsidies (out of 93m total).
       | 
       | If we use these 40m acres for solar, Annual Energy Production (in
       | watt-hours): 52,272 terawatt-hours (TWh)
       | 
       | To put that in context: The total electricity consumption of the
       | U.S. is about 4,000 TWh/year. The energy generated from 40
       | million acres of solar panels could theoretically meet U.S.
       | electricity demand more than 13 times over.
       | 
       | But, we'll need a lot less energy when we use solar/wind. We only
       | need a third of the energy we use today, > 65% of the energy is
       | wasted. So, solar panels on the same land used for ethanol
       | production (and subsidized -- which is a lose-lose-lose idea) can
       | produce 39x times US electricity demand (assuming ChatGPT
       | calculation is correct).
        
         | slothtrop wrote:
         | You can talk about the inefficiency of CC, but this is
         | nonsensical. It's a woefully inefficient means to retrieve
         | carbon in terms of cost. It only makes sense as a means, under
         | development, to reduce prevent buildup in the atmosphere. If it
         | does not do that very well, then as you can imagine, the yields
         | are not great either! If it does do that well, then it's a moot
         | point whether these companies profit; what matters is improving
         | climate. Can't have it both ways.
        
         | thelastgallon wrote:
         | Adding some references
         | 
         | Shell Is Looking Forward. The fossil-fuel companies expect to
         | profit from climate change. I went to a private planning
         | meeting and took notes:
         | https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/shell-climate-change...
         | 
         | Out of the 27 commercially operational CCS projects worldwide,
         | 21 inject carbon dioxide into oil reservoirs to force out
         | petroleum: https://www.landclimate.org/what-is-happening-with-
         | carbon-ca...
         | 
         | Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Reached $7 Trillion in 2022, an
         | All-Time High: https://e360.yale.edu/digest/fossil-fuel-
         | subsidies-2022
         | 
         | 67% to 75% of energy is wasted. See Rejected energy:https://flo
         | wcharts.llnl.gov/sites/flowcharts/files/2023-10/U...
         | 
         | Exxon bets carbon will be the new oil:
         | https://www.semafor.com/article/07/21/2023/exxon-carbon-denb...
         | 
         | 27 DAC plants have been commissioned to date worldwide,
         | capturing almost 0.01 Mt CO2/year: https://www.iea.org/energy-
         | system/carbon-capture-utilisation...
         | 
         | A ton of {coal,petroleum,natural gas} emits {2.6,2.75,3.2} tons
         | of CO2. 8.5 billion tons of coal burnt every year. 4000 billion
         | cubic meters of Natural gas/year (~3000 billion tons - gemini),
         | Global oil production is 4.5 billion metric tons/year. We'll
         | need tens of millions of DAC plants!
         | 
         | Electrification is efficiency: The world will need less energy
         | after the transition:
         | https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/electrification-en...
        
         | Thorrez wrote:
         | >But, we'll need a lot less energy when we use solar/wind. We
         | only need a third of the energy we use today, > 65% of the
         | energy is wasted.
         | 
         | What are we wasting it on? Why will we suddenly stop wasting it
         | when we switch to solar/wind?
         | 
         | I would think switching completely to solar/wind would
         | massively increase the amount of wasted energy, because solar
         | and wind energy production is quite variable, so to meet
         | people's needs at low production times, we need to
         | overprovision our production.
        
           | ZeroGravitas wrote:
           | It's wasted as heat when converting to electricity, or as
           | heat when running an engine, or wasted in low temp heating
           | when a heat pump could be 4x as efficient.
           | 
           | Most predictions are that developed nations will double the
           | amount of electricity they produce to electrify transport and
           | heating but this will still reduce total energy due to the
           | reduction in waste heat.
        
             | Thorrez wrote:
             | Interesting, thanks.
        
         | bee_rider wrote:
         | (9) A whole lot of geopolitical nonsense is caused by oil
         | related entanglements. I won't list them all because it would
         | become a partisan bickering match, but surely whatever
         | anybody's political alignment, they can find a socialist, or
         | theocratic, or authoritarian country that's propped up by oil
         | funding. Or a war partially motivated by oil. What's the cost
         | of bad international relations? How much of our defense budget
         | should we bill to oil companies?
        
         | thelastgallon wrote:
         | I forgot to add one of the biggest costs. The cost of
         | protecting oil flow. Defense budget is to protect oil assets
         | worldwide, any disruption/blockage to oil flow will mean
         | economy will tank, immediately. Oil companies should be
         | shouldering this cost.
        
         | vasco wrote:
         | > Lets talk about the smallest tax (subsidy!) we pay one of the
         | 6 listed about, ethanol subsidies. 40 million acres are used to
         | grow corn for ethanol subsidies (out of 93m total).
         | 
         | Isn't that for food security in case of war?
        
           | throwaway173738 wrote:
           | You can't feed an entire nation nothing but corn.
        
             | vasco wrote:
             | The practicality is besides the point, I just thought it a
             | bit disingenuous to not mention why the US subsidizes corn
             | so much.
             | 
             | To your point it's not the only thing like that. There's
             | huge national reserves of lots of stuff, the amount of
             | cheese for example is huge.
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | We are deep in the hole whether you want to "pay for the fossil
         | industry" or not. If we don't push ourselves outside of the
         | hole, we will stay there, forever.
         | 
         | And anyway, the best way to destroy the fossil fuel industry is
         | to make synthetic fuels so cheap that nobody will want to use
         | the bloody variety. We can easily do that with a carbon tax,
         | but if people keep insisting on stopping carbon capture
         | research, we won't.
        
         | AlexandrB wrote:
         | > To put that in context: The total electricity consumption of
         | the U.S. is about 4,000 TWh/year. The energy generated from 40
         | million acres of solar panels could theoretically meet U.S.
         | electricity demand more than 13 times over.
         | 
         | How many batteries are required to make that generated
         | electricity available at night?
        
           | ironhaven wrote:
           | Depending on the the wind/nuclear mix in the grid possibly as
           | low as zero.
           | 
           | But batteries are a very important innovation for power grids
           | regardless of renewable energy goals. 50% of the job of an
           | energy grid is just keeping the ac power supply stable when
           | generation does exactly match consumption. Lithium batteries
           | help smooth out spikes in demand over milliseconds and hours
           | to save millions of dollars
           | 
           | Lithium grid scale storage is awesome no matter what happens
           | with renewables.
        
           | NohatCoder wrote:
           | Napkin maths would suggest something like 20% of a normal EV
           | battery per household, so indeed a big investment, but
           | perfectly reasonable. The harder part is that solar power
           | production is much lower in the winter (depending on
           | latitude), and seasonal battery storage is still a bit out of
           | reach.
        
         | lithocarpus wrote:
         | Thanks for laying this out.
         | 
         | I had no idea about this until last year, when there was an
         | eminent domain vs nimby struggle I heard about concerning
         | putting co2 pipelines through farms for this purpose. I always
         | thought carbon capture by machines was an impractical, but
         | learning that what it actually is in practice is a way for govt
         | subsidies to pay ethanol and oil companies and enable them to
         | extract more oil.
         | 
         | I wouldn't be surprised if a significant majority of govt money
         | spent on environmental efforts has been captured by industries
         | and is being used to accelerate environmental harm. I only know
         | that this is the case in the areas I'm familiar with. It's sad.
        
       | qwerty456127 wrote:
       | Everything is expensive but we have to start everything with
       | something, then explore further to improve.
        
       | amunozo wrote:
       | Carbon capture is one of the most absurd ideas I've ever heard,
       | given the array of already available options.
        
         | slothtrop wrote:
         | It's not a long list, and among them is pumping sulfur in the
         | stratosphere. It stops sounding so absurd compared to what's
         | viable, nevermind politically.
        
         | WhyNotHugo wrote:
         | Planting trees is also a form of carbon capture. They literally
         | capture carbon from the environment and release oxygen. It's as
         | if they natural evolved to counterbalance animals.
         | 
         | Sadly, when people talk about "carbon capture" techniques,
         | they're never talking about planting trees.
        
           | niek_pas wrote:
           | Trees work, but take a long long time to grow.
        
           | Rury wrote:
           | Trees are good but are largely a temporary store. Most of the
           | carbon they capture ends up be re-released upon decay. Of
           | course some does get more permanently sequestered in the
           | ground, but a relatively small amount, and is a very slow
           | process. I'm all for planting more trees, but I'm afraid the
           | problem can't be entirely solved by merely planting more
           | trees. It's also a rate problem - it may not be possible to
           | plant enough trees to completely offset the rates we're
           | adding carbon to the atmosphere.
        
       | slothtrop wrote:
       | Probably for electricity, but that doesn't represent the vast
       | majority of fossil fuel use. Those are not yet abated.
        
       | nullc wrote:
       | I think it's useful to think of the atmosphere as a battery, when
       | we burn fossil fuels we discharge it gradually by taking O2 from
       | the air and converting it to CO2 via the 'fuel'. You can extend
       | this to an idea of there being a little parallel capacitor with
       | the living biomass cycle on it, but it's okay to ignore for
       | discussion.
       | 
       | We can't go on discharging it arbitrarily and leaving it there
       | because that state is toxic to us.
       | 
       | This battery is insanely useful because it's all around us.
       | Because most of the work is in the ambient O2 the 'fuel' we need
       | use use this battery is incredibly dense. The miraculous density
       | of it is because there is two parts to it, the density when you
       | consider both is unimpressive (as anyone who has tried to operate
       | a chainsaw inside a fire knows all too well, or run a ic motor
       | underground), but because we can usually disregard the air side
       | it is truly amazing.
       | 
       | It's so useful the all the higher life on earth also uses it,
       | which is part of why discharging to much it is toxic to us.
       | 
       | Because it's so useful we're unlikely to completely stop using it
       | unless we leave the planet. But that means we need to recharge
       | it. The natural recharging mechanisms are only sufficient for
       | surface biomass buffer, not the depths of the planets' oil and
       | coal reserves which were changed over millennia using mechnisms
       | that no longer exist (e.g. biomass trapped before microbes knew
       | how to digest cellulose).
       | 
       | Unfortunately recharging it is probably going to take all the
       | energy we got out of it and then somewhat more. It can only take
       | less than that to the extent that we can find less enthalpic
       | places to stash it that are as geophysically durable as the
       | original forms. But that isn't so bad-- no one expects any
       | battery to be 100% efficient, and one as useful as this one is
       | worth some cost to use it.
       | 
       | But this also means that the proper price for long term fossil
       | fuels is, shockingly, not the price that maximizes oil Barron
       | incomes-- it's the price that covers the cost run run the
       | recharging mechanism.
       | 
       | We don't have to make capture cheap, we just need it to be cheap
       | enough that oil can be correctly priced.
        
       | tmnvdb wrote:
       | The study on which the article is based seems somewhat
       | speculative.
       | 
       | The assumption for the full renewable scenario are the existence
       | of the hydrogen economy. I'm quite positive about the potential
       | of hydrogen but there are quite a few unsolved problems at the
       | moment and it seems the hydrogen part of the energy transition
       | has slowed down a bit.
       | 
       | Certainly the total cost of such a system is not well known at
       | this time. So the cost calculation for the renewable scenario is
       | quite uncertain - other energy storage tech might be more
       | expensive.
       | 
       | The carbon capture calculation is based on the assumption that
       | there is no other renewables and we go 100% capture.
       | 
       | This is not really that interesting an scenario, what matters
       | more is the marginal costs of each technology at different points
       | in the future.
       | 
       | In general a healthy dose of scepticism is warented when it comes
       | to long term projections or cost of technologies, though or
       | course policy does require we take a stab at it.
        
       | liveoneggs wrote:
       | kind of like recycling
        
       | turnsout wrote:
       | Oh good, this will influence all the rational policymakers in the
       | government who are introducing common-sense legislation based on
       | science.
       | 
       | OH WAIT
        
       | AlienRobot wrote:
       | I got some solar panels. Did the math and was impressed that they
       | would pay for themselves in around just 2 years.
       | 
       | It's a bit sad that to make money you need money, but I do
       | recommend anyone who can afford it to just install them.
        
         | loeg wrote:
         | For most people the break-even is longer than that. Net-
         | metering is an unjustified gift from non-paneled ratepayers to
         | ratepayers with solar panels.
        
           | AlienRobot wrote:
           | Even without net metering the solar panels cover a lot of the
           | electricity spent and I assume they would pay for themselves
           | eventually.
           | 
           | If you do the math, a single 10W light bulb consumes 0.24kWh
           | per day if you let it on all the time. A single solar panel
           | is rated for 2kWh per day. Many appliances are also under
           | 2kWh per use.
           | 
           | Any electricity you spend during the day will be saved by the
           | solar panel automatically. If you live alone and leave during
           | daylight hours that might not be worth it, but for a lot of
           | family households it's free electricity.
        
             | loeg wrote:
             | Yeah, the big variables are utility electricity price
             | ($0.10/kWh utility pricing makes solar less effective than
             | $0.50/kWh), price for the panels + installation, and
             | ~capacity factor. If the panels last long enough, and they
             | usually will, as long as the installation is appropriately
             | sized it likely eventually pays for itself. It's just
             | usually longer than two years.
        
       | Geezus_42 wrote:
       | Idk why anyone would find this surprising...
        
       | BurningFrog wrote:
       | Here is the case for carbon capture:
       | 
       | - Even if CO2 production ends today, the elevated CO2 levels will
       | remain for at least many centuries. The only way to get back to
       | normal levels is some form of carbon capture.
       | 
       | - Anyone can do carbon capture anywhere. You don't need to make
       | the whole planet agree to and implement some treaty. Just put up
       | some solar cells and pump the captured CO2 underground. The costs
       | need to go down a few orders of magnitude, but I see no
       | fundamental reason why that would be impossible
        
         | jandrewrogers wrote:
         | The scale of carbon capture required to make a meaningful
         | difference implies vast industrial infrastructure and natural
         | resource extraction that currently doesn't exist. The carbon
         | footprint of developing that would be enormous and require many
         | decades to construct at a minimum.
         | 
         | There is a good argument that the ROI and environmental
         | destruction is not worth it.
        
           | marcosdumay wrote:
           | You mean to say that to make a new industry people will have
           | to build something new?
           | 
           | Or are you saying that the size of "all industries" will need
           | to increase? Because... where do you think the carbon has
           | come from?
        
             | jandrewrogers wrote:
             | People truly do not appreciate the industrial scale
             | required to sequester the 100 _gigatons_ per year required
             | to start materially reducing atmospheric CO2. Entirely
             | unprecedented, humans have never built anything like it.
             | 
             | When I put on my very dusty chemical engineering hat, it
             | would take decades just to build adequate supply chains for
             | such an endeavor, assuming we waived all environmental
             | review, never mind actually building the thing.
             | 
             | Most people are not familiar with industrial processes.
             | They have no idea how unfathomably large the scale being
             | proposed is. In computer science terms, it is like saying
             | "we are going to scale Postgres to a zettabyte sized tables
             | with a billion concurrent transactions". It might be
             | possible in some kind of in theory sense but no one knows
             | how to reduce that idea to a real system.
        
               | ianburrell wrote:
               | The projections include a lot less carbon capture than
               | 100 GT/yr. The 2C projections include 1000 GT for whole
               | century. There is research that 600 GT is the most
               | feasible. It would be infeasible to capture all of
               | emissions, but would be feasible to replace emissions,
               | and then use green energy to capture some of it.
               | 
               | BTW, I like rock weathering as option for carbon capture.
               | Crush olivine rock and dump it in the sea. That would be
               | huge scale, but we know how to do mining, crushing, and
               | shipping on large scale.
        
               | jandrewrogers wrote:
               | New emissions are on the scale of several tens of
               | gigatons per year and we have a century of accumulation
               | at those kinds of rates to remove. I am not sanguine
               | about the timelines.
               | 
               | The term "large scale" is doing a lot of heavy lifting
               | here. We are talking about something _qualitatively_
               | higher scale than the largest "large scale" projects. We
               | don't have orders of magnitude of extra capacity anywhere
               | in our existing supply chains, never mind across all of
               | it that would be necessary for such an endeavor. This
               | would all have to be built, and building that has its own
               | supply chains that need to scale to an extreme. It will
               | create severe resource pressures very far removed from
               | the actual carbon capture. It is a "for want of a nail"
               | kind of situation.
               | 
               | This is also economically non-productive. We can't divert
               | enough expertise, manpower, and minerals from the normal
               | economy to make it plausible. We are a very long way from
               | having the kind of automation that would let us work
               | around this issue.
               | 
               | I am interested in viable solutions but the impossibility
               | of scaling this particular solution is kind of basic
               | industrial engineering. It is hard to explain where the
               | resources will come from.
        
           | BurningFrog wrote:
           | If there is a big carbon footprint for developing technology
           | that erases carbon footprints, that's a problem that solves
           | itself.
        
           | ianburrell wrote:
           | We would do the carbon capture after nearly all of the fossil
           | fuels have been replaced. Like putting carbon capture on
           | power plant doesn't make sense, running carbon capture with
           | fossil fuels doesn't make sense. Which means we have a few
           | decades before need to do it, but it is worth researching
           | now.
           | 
           | It will take thousands of years for the elevated CO2 to
           | return to normal. Once we stop producing CO2, the temperature
           | will keep rising for decades. We need to do carbon capture to
           | keep it stable. The projections for 2C include carbon
           | capture.
        
       | fasthands9 wrote:
       | I don't see how this would necessarily apply to every scenario.
       | Transmission is expensive and storage is still not ideal.
       | 
       | Briefly reading the article it seems like the author is assuming
       | there is like a 1:1 global marketplace where any energy produced
       | in one area can replace energy demand in another. That's just not
       | the case.
        
       | tim333 wrote:
       | There was an interesting idea to fix climate change by carbon
       | capture for ~$10bn in a recent Sabine video
       | 
       | >A Big Nuclear Bomb Could Fix Climate Change, Physicist Says
       | https://youtu.be/aGPKpx6pMko
       | 
       | Just put some huge nukes in the basalt at the bottom of the
       | Indian Ocean, it breaks it up so the rock absorbs CO2, job done!
       | 
       | (paper on the idea https://arxiv.org/html/2501.06623v1)
        
         | acc_297 wrote:
         | I won't watch that video just right now but I assume the paper
         | is this one:
         | 
         | https://arxiv.org/pdf/2501.06623
         | 
         | And I'll include this colourful quote:
         | 
         | "This is orders of magnitude larger than the largest nuclear
         | explosion ever detonated, so this is not to be taken lightly."
         | 
         | I quickly read through and may have missed it but I do not see
         | any mention of the timescale over which this would work just
         | that it could sequester ~30 years worth of CO2 output.
        
           | tim333 wrote:
           | Yeah, they do seem to skip over the details a bit. Also I'm a
           | bit skeptical of the $10bn price tag.
           | 
           | I think in practice going straight to a huge megabomb
           | straight off would not be wise but maybe we could try one of
           | our existing spare nukes as a prototype test? Then you'd get
           | more data on how it would work.
        
           | 00N8 wrote:
           | I'm not convinced about their hand-waved explanation of
           | radiation safety here:
           | 
           | > The long-term effects of global radiation will impact
           | humans and will cause loss of life, but this increased global
           | radiation is "just a drop in the bucket". Every year, we emit
           | more radiation from coal power plants and we have already
           | detonated over 2000 nuclear devices. Adding one more bomb
           | should have minimal impact on the world.
           | 
           | I don't think "eh, what's one more detonation?" is persuasive
           | when you're talking about a device more than 10x the size of
           | all previous ones put together, being set off in direct
           | contact with the seabed. Most of the fallout from nuclear
           | testing came from the handful of ground burst tests that
           | weren't fully confined, so I'm skeptical that "try to make it
           | a clean fusion design" would actually be enough here. It
           | would be cool if that were solvable though.
        
             | the8472 wrote:
             | You'd get the irradiated rocks either way. The difference
             | is that you avoid some fraction of fission products of the
             | bomb itself if it's fusion fraction is higher.
        
       | sam345 wrote:
       | Not surprising. Carbon capture methods are so out there and so
       | bogus sounding with very little evidence that they will work,
       | really seems just custom made to soak up government money with
       | little promise of benefit and certainly not efficient.
        
       | James_K wrote:
       | It's actually way cheaper as long as you imagine that some magic
       | technology gets invented in the next few years that makes it
       | cheaper. Then you just have to hold of until that is created and
       | if it isn't, it won't cost you anything! Even more savings!
        
       | crocowhile wrote:
       | That's comparing apples to oranges though. Renewables are to stop
       | emitting CO2, carbon capture to try and recover the one we've
       | been emitting in the past decades. We need both, the latter
       | possibly in the shape of organic capture since it's way more
       | efficient and cheap.
        
         | schainks wrote:
         | Engineering/inventing ways to emit less CO2 is fixing the root
         | cause of the problem.
         | 
         | Spending energy that likely came from fossil fuel burning to
         | "capture" CO2 is like saying you've found a perpetual motion
         | machine. The engineering is simpler for this in some ways, but
         | it's still not really a "good" solution.
         | 
         | I agree organic capture is a good idea, and CHEAPEST thing we
         | could do to have an impact dump iron into the open ocean to
         | spawn a phytoplankton bloom, but there is no money to be made
         | doing that.
        
           | sfvisser wrote:
           | Isn't the point of most carbon capture schemes to use
           | renewables (likely solar) as the energy source. Like
           | Terraform Industries?
           | 
           | Don't know if it will work or is economically viable, but
           | sounds pretty win-win to me.
        
         | moffkalast wrote:
         | Yeah going net zero by just stopping emissions isn't just not
         | going to help our situation that much, we've already emitted
         | enough to fuck ourselves properly, it's also not even possible.
         | 
         | There's no such thing as a net zero society with our current
         | technology, period. Anyone seen an electric tractor lately?
         | Combine harvester EVs? Electric aircraft? Zero emission
         | concrete? Electric container ships? Cheap plastics without oil?
         | Electric orbital launch vehicles!? Lots of fantasy tech that
         | ranges from being cost ineffective to borderline infeasible and
         | we can't (or won't, anyway) run our civilization without these
         | and dozens more that have no real replacement on the horizon.
         | Covid has made that point really sharply clear, we just can't
         | stop ourselves. Piston engined planes still _today_ run on
         | leaded gas despite knowing that it 's literal poison for fucks
         | sake, it's fuckin hopeless to convince anyone about anything
         | when there's a chance someone might lose money.
         | 
         | Carbon capture might help in the long run, but the bulk of it
         | will have to be on geoengineering to even give us a century of
         | time to remove megatons of CO2 out of the atmosphere and
         | oceans. And maybe a fish or two will even survive.
        
         | kennywinker wrote:
         | Carbon capture isn't about pulling carbon out of the air - it's
         | about pulling carbon out of smokestacks just before it hits the
         | air.
        
         | Aachen wrote:
         | My understanding is that it's not so much about undoing past
         | decades, but being able to even reach zero additional warming
         | in the first place. Cows won't stop farting (that sounds like
         | they're the butt of a joke but it's not actually, even if some
         | feed additives reduce it), so we need to compensate for the
         | methane. Or air travel for relevant distances (where a train
         | won't do), we don't have the battery tech to make it zero
         | emission but we can totally capture the carbon. (It's not super
         | economical but it's cleaning up after oneself, it's either that
         | or accepting further warming and much greater costs later.) Or
         | compensating whatever emissions occur as part of making those
         | batteries and stuff we need to capture and use that zero-
         | emission solar/wind/water energy
        
       | very_good_man wrote:
       | Tired of the green scams. Drill Drill Drill!
        
       | 11235813213455 wrote:
       | We should ban private swimming pools, tennis courts, etc.. and
       | restrict the size of villas, ban mowing the lawn, in order to
       | maximize the space for trees and wild plants
        
         | Schiendelman wrote:
         | ALL you have to do to increase space for wild plants is remove
         | height/density limits in cities. That's it. Then let people
         | make choices about how much housing they build, and let people
         | make choices about where they live.
         | 
         | You would be shocked how many people will choose to live in
         | density, no matter what they _say_ they want, if we weren 't
         | restricting the supply of dense housing so much it's become
         | unaffordable.
         | 
         | The suburbs would simply stop growing in their tracks.
        
       | lukashoff wrote:
       | A lot of energy from renewables are being wasted due to mismatch
       | with the demand. Building storage for it is quite expensive. I
       | wonder if it makes sense to set up carbon capture near the places
       | which don't have the storage. For example here in the UK we're
       | wasting between 13% and 25% of all wind electricity generated
       | depending on the weather/time of the year.
        
       | Findecanor wrote:
       | Carbon capture technology is for installation _inside_ _chimney_
       | _stacks_ , when there is no alternative to burning stuff and thus
       | producing CO2.
       | 
       | Nothing else.
       | 
       | You'd extract the CO2 directly from the exhaust gases. It can't
       | clean CO2 from the open air. It does not scale that way.
        
         | acyou wrote:
         | The more you look into it, the more you realize we are already
         | doing this, kind of. Then you realize that the real low hanging
         | fruit is sort of in other areas, sulfur dioxide, methane
         | capture, particulate, and especially home heating. European
         | wood pellet and home wood burning stove users, I'm looking at
         | you.
        
       | rafaelmn wrote:
       | I recently saw a video by Sabine on this paper
       | https://arxiv.org/html/2501.06623v1 that basically proposes
       | blowing up a gigantic nuclear bomb in deep sea basalt deposit and
       | basalt would capture the carbon.
       | 
       | In the paper they did some math on the bomb size needed to
       | reverse 30 years of carbon emissions, and it's huge (orders of
       | magnitude larger than what we tested so far), although I don't
       | understand why it needs to be one huge bomb. I'm sure you could
       | try it with one military head and test the impact.
       | 
       | Interesting approach in any case.
        
         | jostmey wrote:
         | ...Detonating a 81 Gt nuclear device... That's multiple orders
         | of magnitude larger than anything tested during the cold war.
         | It's more than all nuclear explosions and tests combined
        
           | the8472 wrote:
           | We could also use that for asteroid deflection. Someone was
           | planning ahead.
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sundial_(weapon)
        
       | chris_va wrote:
       | (disclaimer that I manage a climate research group)
       | 
       | Jacobson (first author) can be a little touchy about criticism
       | against 100% renewables (litigious), but I think the paper
       | presents a false dichotomy.
       | 
       | Regardless of the conclusion, even if all energy infrastructure
       | in the world fully decarbonized today, we are still on a path to
       | high warming (in fact a large chunk of climate change is due to
       | land use change and other factors). The IPCC (and most of the
       | community) is pretty sure large scale carbon capture will be
       | required under any future pathway to avoid catastrophic warming.
       | 
       | This is a complex subject, with a lot of competing interests from
       | parties that sometimes partially align with the science and
       | sometimes do not. E.g. O&G companies like to push carbon capture
       | because it plays well and potentially increases their
       | longevity... But that doesn't mean the ideal outcome is to drop
       | carbon capture as part of the toolkit.
        
         | derangedHorse wrote:
         | I also think it's a useful tool, but the economics of carbon
         | capture have to sustain the cost of developing these methods.
         | Pointing consumerism in the right direction seems like the most
         | effective way to drop carbon emissions from both a short and
         | long term perspective. We need to "stop the bleed" before
         | tackling anything else.
        
           | chris_va wrote:
           | Pipelining is probably required, and there is no one magic
           | solution here.
           | 
           | It took solar 45 years to become low cost, and carbon capture
           | will probably be just as difficult. If we did things one step
           | at a time, carbon capture wouldn't be economical until ~2080,
           | which is too late.
        
           | criddell wrote:
           | > Pointing consumerism in the right direction
           | 
           | How do you do that?
        
             | ghouse wrote:
             | Price signals.
             | 
             | One approach would be a revenue-neutral carbon tax on
             | extraction of sequestered carbon. And border carbon taxes
             | for imports from countries who don't also have an internal
             | carbon tax.
        
               | criddell wrote:
               | I don't think something like that would ever fly in the
               | US. In fact, the opposite is more likely. The drill-baby-
               | drill mantra is going to push everything in exactly the
               | opposite direction.
               | 
               | I think any solution will have to come from industry, not
               | government.
        
           | sn9 wrote:
           | That's the strategy of startups like Terraform [0][1] which
           | use green energy production to synthesize carbon fuels using
           | direct air capture, which are on track to be cheaper than
           | fossil fuels without subsidies within the next few years
           | (e.g., definitely this decade). This will both displace more
           | expensive fossil fuels from the market while letting us
           | leverage existing carbon fuel infrastructure.
           | 
           | The profit motive creates a self-sustaining cycle of rapid
           | expansion and iteration, which should drastically increase
           | the efficiency per unit as well as the horizontal scale of
           | DAC so that eventually we'll have exponentially more DAC
           | installed and then you can decide what to do with all the
           | excess carbon, sequestering it in whatever ways make sense.
           | 
           | [0] https://terraformindustries.wordpress.com/2023/01/09/terr
           | afo...
           | 
           | [1] https://terraformindustries.wordpress.com/2024/02/06/terr
           | afo...
        
         | palata wrote:
         | > we are still on a path to high warming
         | 
         | Yes, and we are on a path with less energy. We like to talk
         | about renewables and extrapolate from their evolution in a
         | world that is mostly fossil-fueled. But the truth is that it's
         | not clear at all that renewables can scale to replace the
         | fossil fuels. Actually it seems like they can't, realistically,
         | totally replace them.
         | 
         | Instead of focusing on how to do carbon capture and keep living
         | the way we are, we should focus on preparing society for the
         | inevitable global-warming-in-a-world-with-less-energy. Which
         | means we have to do less with less. AI is the exact opposite,
         | so we are clearly accelerating in the other direction.
         | 
         | Carbon capture is interesting research, but if feels like it
         | assumes a world with _more_ energy than today (because you need
         | energy for the capture), and clean. We 're most likely not
         | going there in the timeline we are looking at (the problems
         | have already started, we don't have 200 years to discover a new
         | energy).
        
         | bobfromhuddle wrote:
         | I work on decarbonising cement production, and the cement
         | producers are betting _heavily_ on carbon capture as their "get
         | out of jail free card".
         | 
         | I think they're likely wrong, but - again - it's not like we
         | can just stop making concrete: all the solar farms, wind farms,
         | dams, and assorted infrastructure that we need to combat
         | climate change will be made with concrete, and there is
         | currently no viable zero carbon alternative.
         | 
         | The grid is the easy bit, and will happen as a result of market
         | forces, but those hard-to-abate sectors are really fricking
         | hard.
        
           | chris_va wrote:
           | Cement is actually great for renewable balancing, too.
           | 
           | You can store high grade heat for calcination via grid load
           | leveling (eg use curtailed solar, which sometimes the grid
           | will pay you to take, to preheat rocks). This allows solar to
           | scale up to a larger fraction of the grid, win win.
        
       | bayindirh wrote:
       | Capturing something back is more costly than not emitting in the
       | first place. News at 22.
        
       | totallynothoney wrote:
       | This obviously is not viable for X, Y, etc. reasons but I would
       | like to know them. We select some fast growing woody plant that
       | thrives on terrain useless for agriculture, we grow it at
       | industrial scale and convert it to charcoal (using the energy
       | generated for the process itself or the grid), we grind the
       | charcoal and mix it with sea water and pump the slurry into some
       | mine.
       | 
       | Creating charcoal and taking out of the cycle isn't actually net
       | negative? We don't have enough space for growing or in
       | mineshafts? I'm making Centralia 2.0? It's obviously non
       | economic, but everything carbon capture is like that.
        
         | sensanaty wrote:
         | I am the furthest thing from an expert on this, but isn't the
         | majority of natural CO2 capture done by Algae?
        
       | sweeter wrote:
       | "don't worry, don't worry, once the environment gets unliveable
       | we'll just pull the carbon out of the air. We don't need
       | sustainable resources"
       | 
       | Is a lie on par with:
       | 
       | "I don't need to go to rehab, I can stop at any time" except the
       | oil companies are the drug dealer and you are the deluded addict
       | who will suffer the brunt of the consequence.
        
       | whatever1 wrote:
       | Oh no the VCs did not revolutionize thermodynamics?
        
       | notatoad wrote:
       | unfortunately, the only way this is relevant is if we actually
       | price carbon emissions at the rate it costs to capture them. as
       | long as you can emit for free, then switching to renewables is
       | more expensive.
        
       | AlexandrB wrote:
       | Since this is talking about 2050, why isn't nuclear mentioned?
       | That seems like a long-enough horizon to build a few nuclear
       | plants.
        
       | krupan wrote:
       | Are people still including wood and wood pellets as "renewables"?
       | It seems like that would be throwing off any cost calculations
        
       | acyou wrote:
       | Point capture and atmospheric capture are vastly different
       | processes, economics for point capture are great, economics for
       | atmospheric capture are terrible due to the thermodynamic high
       | energy input inherently required for separating out a low
       | concentration (400 parts per million) substance.
       | 
       | But this article puts both processes in the same category, which
       | perfectly sets up a low-information, divisive debate. Why they
       | would want to do that - well, some people stand to gain a lot
       | from renewable energy program investment, let's put it that way.
        
         | lblume wrote:
         | > some people stand to gain a lot from renewable energy program
         | investment
         | 
         | Yes, everyone in fact.
        
       | WalterBright wrote:
       | The notion of carbon capture always sounded crazy to me.
       | 
       | But there already is a technology to do carbon capture. Plants.
       | Plants cover the world. How does one think a machine could do
       | better?
        
       | acyou wrote:
       | European home heating using wood pellets is an environmental
       | disaster. Cut down trees in North America, grind them into
       | pellets, pack them in shipping containers, ship them to Europe,
       | and burn them in low efficiency furnaces with zero carbon capture
       | and high particulate and sulfur dioxide emissions. It's probably
       | even worse than home heating using unprocessed wood, due to the
       | massive amount of energy consumed in processing and
       | transportation.
       | 
       | If we can't at least point capture stacks at the individual home
       | level, then forget atmospheric capture.
        
       | johnea wrote:
       | Duh?!
       | 
       | The unasked question though: More costly to who?
       | 
       | Modern capitalism (especially in the enrgy sector) is
       | fundamentally based on externalities.
       | 
       | Getting someone else to bear the cost, while concentrating income
       | as greatly as possible, is what the modern billionaire is all
       | about...
        
       | rob_c wrote:
       | Does this really. Really?!? Surprise anyone not invested in hyper
       | loop being a thing?
        
       | jslezak wrote:
       | This has been obvious since day 0, for the same reason that doing
       | elaborate industry-funded R&D to develop piss-extraction
       | technology to filter and sequester piss from your swimming pool
       | will never be more efficient than simply not pissing in your pool
        
         | Aachen wrote:
         | Is it on purpose that the analogy lends itself for arguing "and
         | that's why we need the technology: we won't stop the group that
         | still does this"?
         | 
         | I'm probably more optimistic about global warming than about
         | the other "environment-warming" thing!
        
       | sega_sai wrote:
       | For people in the UK I strongly recommend the BBC program on
       | carbon capture
       | https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00256gj/panorama-can-...
       | that goes over several approaches, and goes over problems of
       | scaling them.
       | 
       | I personally think we have to investigate this, as we are just
       | not doing a good enough job of reducing fossil fuel use.
        
       | picafrost wrote:
       | Energy companies are reporting that the cost situation for
       | renewables is terrible. The thin margins continue to get thinner.
       | They cannot justify pursuing new green projects to shareholders.
       | We will hear a lot more about carbon capture in the years to
       | come. It's the only way they can meet their climate obligations
       | -- which are also being "adjusted" these days.
        
       | tgsovlerkhgsel wrote:
       | For electricity, it seems like a no-brainer, but that's not the
       | only emitter. I wonder what cost for carbon capture they used
       | (unfortunately the article is paywalled).
       | 
       | It seems to me like the obvious solution to the problem would be
       | a CO2 tax equal to the estimated cost of carbon capture. It
       | should not be higher - that would be yet another example of
       | moralism that plagues so many environmental policies. Introduce
       | that, properly monitor emissions (especially things like methane
       | leaks), and the problem will quickly solve itself. Anything that
       | remains is the edge cases where it is more economical to do
       | carbon capture - so use the tax to do just that.
       | 
       | That also covers cases where it makes sense to do the change more
       | slowly. No need to decide or argue back and forth whether someone
       | can or cannot do it faster. You emit, you pay, you don't want to
       | pay, you don't emit. Changing quickly is too costly? That's fine,
       | you pay. Oh, it's not _that_ costly when compared to the tax?
       | Guess you change, then. Also fine. Want to generate electricity
       | from lignite? I 'm not going to argue, I'm just going to watch
       | you go bankrupt... and if you don't, there probably _was_ some
       | good reason for doing that and forcing the opposite would have
       | had some unintended side effects.
        
       | mhh__ wrote:
       | Is it dearer than storage though? my understanding was always
       | that carbon capture if worth doing at all is for situations where
       | the wind isn't blowing and the sun is dim (this nearly led to
       | blackouts in uk recently)
        
       | cbmuser wrote:
       | Renewables like wind and solar don't provide baseload and
       | therefore cannot replace conventional power plants.
       | 
       | I wish people stopped comparing apples and oranges here.
        
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