[HN Gopher] Good engineers are right, a lot
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       Good engineers are right, a lot
        
       Author : rbanffy
       Score  : 13 points
       Date   : 2025-02-06 14:00 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.seangoedecke.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.seangoedecke.com)
        
       | lolc wrote:
       | This kindles a thought I've harbored for a long time: that I
       | should be tracking my predictions. About everything. Because I
       | feel I'm pretty good about predictions.
       | 
       | How much am I deluding myself?
        
         | gloryjulio wrote:
         | Aren't that just design docs ;D
        
         | RealityVoid wrote:
         | Try it. I predict you'll be right less often than you'd like,
         | but probably more often than the median popular, it's just you
         | need some way to track how often _other_ people are right as
         | well.
        
         | sdwr wrote:
         | Probably the normal amount, by:
         | 
         | - forgetting wrong predictions
         | 
         | - tweaking your predictions after the fact to be more correct
         | 
         | - only making predictions you are relatively sure of
         | 
         | The real difference is whether you can do it on command, or
         | only when you feel like it. In the second case, it's less of a
         | prediction, and more of a roundabout way your brain tells you
         | that you know something.
        
       | renewiltord wrote:
       | Yeah, it's one of my favourite Amazon principles. It's not enough
       | to always be learning. At some point, you're at the Olympics and
       | it doesn't help to be learning.
        
       | ericmcer wrote:
       | This implies that you can look back at a product with all its
       | nuance and say "that was done right" or "that was done wrong".
       | Most of the time it is ambiguous as far as if the chosen approach
       | was the right one. You can't tell if you faced more hurdles and
       | unseen challenges with the chosen path then if you had gone with
       | a different approach, because it is impossible to predict unknown
       | challenges.
       | 
       | If you are a leading engineer and you are able to deliver on time
       | and within budget constraints, that would be called a success,
       | but I doubt even the leader themself looks back at what was done
       | and thinks it was all done correctly.
        
       | SemioticStandrd wrote:
       | This sentiment is so incomplete as to be utterly useless outside
       | of a very narrow scope.
       | 
       | Good engineers are right a lot _very specifically within their
       | technical competency._
       | 
       | Simply saying "good engineers are right a lot" has pretty clearly
       | resulted in a large group of people who think that because
       | they're right a lot about things within their field, that quality
       | of 'being right a lot' extends to things outside of their field,
       | and that is terribly wrong as often as not. The hubris and
       | entitlement that I've seen engendered in people who take this
       | creed too seriously is really something to behold. It's part of
       | what directly leads to the 'techbro' stereotype.
       | 
       | No, Kyle, just because you're right a lot about all things
       | relating to Rust does NOT mean you know a fucking thing about
       | economics, healthcare, or whatever the hell else it is you
       | espouse your strongly held opinion on.
        
         | magicalhippo wrote:
         | I'm reminded of the quote "he knows everything, but that is
         | also all he knows".
        
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       (page generated 2025-02-06 23:01 UTC)