[HN Gopher] Dutch Align with US Export Controls on Some ASML Chi...
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       Dutch Align with US Export Controls on Some ASML Chip Tools
        
       Author : ksec
       Score  : 92 points
       Date   : 2025-01-16 19:07 UTC (4 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.bloomberg.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.bloomberg.com)
        
       | sylware wrote:
       | Until china is not able to produce state-of-the-art EUV
       | photolitographers, they will be "grounded" to produce old silicon
       | process chips.
        
         | belter wrote:
         | Or until the US invades Greenland, and will be barred by the EU
         | of ever using ASML machines again ;-)
        
           | aurareturn wrote:
           | Pretty sure the reason ASML has to comply is because they
           | rely on American suppliers. Without those American suppliers,
           | they wouldn't be able to build their machines.
        
             | danieldk wrote:
             | Or, I don't know? The Netherlands considers the US an ally
             | and if the US asks it, we (sometimes begrudgingly) do it?
             | 
             | Which circles back to the current problem in the White
             | House. Allies don't work on transactionalism and threats.
             | They work using a lot of silent diplomacy and the
             | understanding that you sometimes sacrifice a bit for an
             | ally.
             | 
             | Everybody gets some wins.
        
           | usrnm wrote:
           | The US already threatened to invade the Netherlands not so
           | long ago, worked like a charm. I'm pretty sure your scenario
           | would be resolved just as easily
        
             | postepowanieadm wrote:
             | Netherlands(ASML) or Denmark(Greenland/Ozempic)?
        
               | peterpost2 wrote:
               | I think he might be thinking about the following
               | repulsive law:
               | 
               | https://nl.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Service-
               | Members%27_...
        
             | belter wrote:
             | Your forgot about the ASML Machines remote disable. The
             | SEAL Team 6 better deploy already to a location around
             | Amsterdam....
             | 
             | "ASML can remotely disable chip machines if China invades
             | Taiwan" - https://nltimes.nl/2024/05/21/asml-can-remotely-
             | disable-chip...
        
               | sylware wrote:
               | I heard about total destruction, but not from ASML, from
               | taiwan authorities.
        
             | corimaith wrote:
             | The US isn't even willing to send troops to deal with the
             | Houthis and now you're treating an invasion of the
             | Netherlands as credible? Maybe you should cool it with the
             | propaganda here.
        
               | krisoft wrote:
               | > and now you're treating an invasion of the Netherlands
               | as credible?
               | 
               | It is as credible as it gets. The explicit threat is in
               | the American Service-Members' Protection Act and it was
               | signed into law by President George W. Bush on August 2,
               | 2002.
               | 
               | Which part of this do you feel is propaganda?
        
               | corimaith wrote:
               | >It is as credible as it gets.
               | 
               | It's as uncredible as it gets the moment you spend more
               | than 1 minute thinking about it. Let's play this
               | logically through.
               | 
               | In order to coerce the Netherlands to align with ASML
               | Export Controls (With the assumption they do not already
               | align with such policy), the US (Who exactly in the US,
               | the famously No-New-Wars Donald Trump, or an isolationist
               | Congress) is going to the invoke the Hague Invasion Act,
               | to "free" nonexistent American officials that are held up
               | by nonexistent criminal convictions by the Hague? And
               | this will somehow coerce the Netherlands despite being
               | completely unrelated to ASML which is located 137 KM away
               | in Veldhoven?
               | 
               | Even the gritty details, how exactly is this "invasion"
               | of yours going to work? You are going to send a
               | battallion of Marines to attack the Hague, or are you
               | going to Veldhoven 137 KM away to occupy ASML Factories
               | or capture the ASML CEO? Which of the two? All the while
               | provoking a kinetic war with a technologically-peer
               | nation? Even if you do manage to do it, what then? Your
               | supply lines are completely cut, enemy troops are moving
               | in with greater firepower and numbers. Or are you
               | assuming some kind of national invasion where the US
               | Military is going to direct a CSG to attack the Dutch
               | then some sort of occupation, likely within wider war
               | against Europe which likely lead to quagmire of massive
               | American casualties, all for the sake of "coercing" ASML
               | not to export to China? And American people, US Congress,
               | political rivals and the Democrats will just stand by
               | instead of likely removing the incumbent?
               | 
               | The nonalignment is dubious. The motivation within
               | individuals is non-credible. The mechanism does not
               | exist. The invasion is highly improbable and self-
               | defeating. The very fact that you label this as "as
               | credible as it gets" should tell anyone that you and OP
               | are either extremely uninformed, or being intellectually
               | dishonest with an agenda to divide.
        
               | krisoft wrote:
               | > Let's play this logically through.
               | 
               | Okay. Let's.
               | 
               | > In order to coerce the Netherlands to align with ASML
               | Export Controls
               | 
               | Oops. You went down the wrong route. The credible threat
               | I'm talking about is over the International Criminal
               | Court potentially prosecuting American service members.
               | 
               | That is as credible as it gets. Elected politicians got
               | together, and signed their promise of it happening into
               | literal law. There is no more credible way for America to
               | signal that they are going to do something besides
               | actually doing it.
               | 
               | Please re-read my comment more carefully. I'm not talking
               | about the ASML or export controls.
               | 
               | > The very fact that you label this as "as credible as it
               | gets" should tell anyone that you and OP are either
               | extremely uninformed, or being intellectually dishonest
               | with an agenda to divide.
               | 
               | You sling a lot of accusations. Try to not guess what I
               | might think. Read my actual words. Thanks.
               | 
               | America did in fact threaten the Netherland with
               | invasion. Credibly. This is a fact. I precisely named my
               | source in my previous comment.
               | 
               | No. They did not do this in context of ASML, nor did I
               | say that they did that.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _The credible threat I 'm talking about is over the
               | International Criminal Court potentially prosecuting
               | American service members_
               | 
               | The ICC doesn't execute its arrest warrants. Even _if_ it
               | were stupid enough to issue one for an American 's
               | arrest, there would be plenty of time for de-escalation
               | between its issuance and execution.
        
               | krisoft wrote:
               | I agree with that. Does not make the threat less
               | credible, in my opinion.
               | 
               | In fact the credibility of the threat is what makes the
               | de-escalation so much more likely.
        
               | forty wrote:
               | Sorry, but I think it's bullshit. I understand why they
               | would write some paper with threats to put some pressure
               | on Netherlands, but actually acting on it is completely
               | ridiculous if you do a very simple pros and cons balance.
        
               | corimaith wrote:
               | >Please re-read my comment more carefully. I'm not
               | talking about the ASML or export controls.
               | 
               | So you're intellectually dishonest then. You reply to my
               | comment criticising the framing of an US invasion in the
               | context of ASML export controls, disputing such framing
               | as propaganda and then now you say it's not at all about
               | ASML exports in a thread about ASML exports and instead
               | some pendantic nitpick about the Hague Act?
               | 
               | > The credible threat I'm talking about is over the
               | International Criminal Court potentially prosecuting
               | American service
               | 
               | Declaring war on America and then firing missiles at
               | their cities is also a way for an credible invasion of
               | any country by America to occur. Does that mean then that
               | the invasion of X country by America is a "credible
               | threat" then?
               | 
               | Either you using your own made up definition that is so
               | generalized that it is a pointless statement, or No.
               | Because such a scenario relies upon a series of prior
               | actions (and even the mechanics of the invasion itself)
               | that would be considered highly improbable, which is what
               | makes it non-credible. You'd have to explain how such a
               | realistic chain of events could occur given contemporary
               | context.
        
               | krisoft wrote:
               | > So you're intellectually dishonest then.
               | 
               | Ok. Have a nice day then. :)
        
           | dragonelite wrote:
           | The lithographic light source is US ip being created on US
           | shores. If they do that it will be the last EUV machine ASML
           | will make in the EU.
           | 
           | Hell i would bet ASML will move to US than stay in EU, if the
           | US says move to the US and we will allow you to do business
           | with China again.
           | 
           | Also it looks like China has multiple EUV tracks on going
           | from SSMB to that tin based EUV that ASML works with.
        
             | belter wrote:
             | The lithographic light source used in ASML EUV lithography
             | systems is based on intellectual property developed by
             | Cymer, a company that....drum roll...ASML acquired in 2013.
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | If we're talking about the above hypothetical trade
               | embargo, it wouldn't really matter. Ownership doesn't
               | override trade restrictions.
        
               | dragonelite wrote:
               | You think Cymer will stay ASML property when the US can
               | just do a National security ruling...
               | 
               | Queue in the "First time" meme with China and
               | Netherlands.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | Is EUV the only way? Isn't there a much slower technique with
         | laser engraving, but which they may scale in some other way?
         | 
         | https://www.asianometry.com/p/euv-lithography-but-with-a-fre...
        
           | nomercy400 wrote:
           | EUV is all about the laser. To create the small transistors
           | of 4nm for example, either lithography or some other laser
           | tech, you need to be able to shine a pure light on them of
           | small enough wavelength. EUV is the smallest we can create
           | thus far.
        
             | CamperBob2 wrote:
             | I suppose that the real issue is that EUV is the smallest
             | we can _focus_ thus far. Otherwise we 'd be using harder
             | X-rays from things like synchrotron light sources, no?
        
               | andyferris wrote:
               | You want to impact the surface, not deep into the
               | material like X-rays would penetrate, so you can't
               | actually go too low in wavelength either.
        
           | jecel wrote:
           | https://spectrum.ieee.org/nanoimprint-lithography
        
         | xbmcuser wrote:
         | It would be really interesting if in order to compete and not
         | being able to get anywhere with photolithography if they come
         | up with some other material to make processors or something
         | else. Silicon is the thing that has been worked on and billions
         | have been spent on it over decades. Now with chinese government
         | as well private companies spending billions on a break through
         | we might get something out of left field where private
         | companies would not have been willing to invest in. As they say
         | competition/war speeds up innovation.
        
           | sylware wrote:
           | if if if would would would.
           | 
           | Dude, they found a way, until they did.
        
         | Keyframe wrote:
         | they'd still need know-how what to produce, and that seems to
         | also be the hard part if not way harder.
        
         | Synaesthesia wrote:
         | USA the parent of the world, grounding unruly teenagers like
         | the PRC.
        
       | usrnm wrote:
       | And what are ASML and the Netherlands in general getting out of
       | it?
        
         | tristanj wrote:
         | They don't have a choice. ASML licenses the intellectual
         | property for EUV lithography from the US government. Therefore
         | they follow US export control laws on EUV machines.
        
           | belter wrote:
           | > The US government owns the intellectual property for ASML's
           | EUV lithography.
           | 
           | This is false.
        
             | tristanj wrote:
             | From the wikipedia page on EUV: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/
             | wiki/Extreme_ultraviolet_lithogra...
             | 
             | > To address the challenge of EUV lithography, researchers
             | at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lawrence
             | Berkeley National Laboratory, and Sandia National
             | Laboratories were funded in the 1990s to perform basic
             | research into the technical obstacles. The results of this
             | successful effort were disseminated via a public/private
             | partnership Cooperative R&D Agreement (CRADA) with the
             | invention and rights wholly owned by the US government, but
             | licensed and distributed under approval by DOE and
             | Congress.[3] The CRADA consisted of a consortium of private
             | companies and the Labs, manifested as an entity called the
             | Extreme Ultraviolet Limited Liability Company (EUV LLC).[4]
             | 
             | > In 2001 SVG was acquired by ASML, leaving ASML as the
             | sole benefactor of the critical technology.
             | 
             | Unless the situation has changed, the IP is still owned by
             | the US government, and is licensed to ASML through their
             | acquisition of Silicon Valley Group.
        
               | dkjaudyeqooe wrote:
               | Those early patents have likely expired.
        
               | count wrote:
               | The ITAR licensing around their export from the United
               | States and the conditions under which they may be
               | (including flowing down the restrictions clauses) don't
               | expire, generally.
        
               | belter wrote:
               | From your own reference ( note this had 18 years of R&D
               | by ASML ):
               | 
               | "By 2018, ASML succeeded in deploying the intellectual
               | property from the EUV-LLC after several decades of
               | developmental research, with incorporation of European-
               | funded EUCLIDES (Extreme UV Concept Lithography
               | Development System) and long-standing partner German
               | optics manufacturer ZEISS and synchrotron light source
               | supplier Oxford Instruments..."
        
               | ckastner wrote:
               | > _By 2018, ASML succeeded in deploying the intellectual
               | property from the EUV-LLC_
               | 
               | That explicitly says that the IP is with EUV-LLC (edit:
               | which is of U.S. origin).
        
               | belter wrote:
               | In 1998, ASML formed a European industrial R&D consortium
               | dubbed 'EUCLIDES' (Extreme UV Concept Lithography
               | Development System) with ZEISS and Oxford Instruments.
               | Then EUCLIDES joined forces with the American EUV LLC in
               | 1999...
               | 
               | "The CRADA consisted of a consortium of private companies
               | and the Labs, manifested as an entity called the Extreme
               | Ultraviolet Limited Liability Company (EUV LLC)."
        
               | ckastner wrote:
               | You keep pointing out European involvement as if that
               | somehow displaced American involvement (and thus
               | continued U.S. control, the subject of this thread).
               | 
               | Again, your first quote explicitly states that EUV-LLC
               | was American. The second quote refers to the "Labs",
               | which in this case were the Lawrence Livermore, Sandia,
               | and Berkeley _National_ Laboratories.
               | 
               | Apple may have developed the M4 from the ground up but
               | they still licensed the ISA from ARM.
        
               | belter wrote:
               | The EUV-LLC was 100% financed by the private companies in
               | the consortium, ASML being one.
               | 
               | "To access EUV technology, Intel in 1997 formed the EUV
               | LLC, which entered into a cooperative R&D agreement
               | (CRADA) with DOE. As part of this agreement, Intel and
               | its partners would pay $250 million over three years to
               | cover the direct salary costs of government researchers
               | at the national labs and acquire equipment and materials
               | for the labs, as well as cover the costs of its own
               | researchers dedicated to the project. In return, the
               | consortium would have exclusive rights to the technology
               | in the EUV lithography field of use. At the time, it was
               | the largest CRADA ever undertaken."
               | 
               |  _In return, the consortium would have exclusive rights
               | to the technology in the EUV lithography field of use_
               | 
               | https://issues.org/van_atta/
        
           | amelius wrote:
           | > The US government owns
           | 
           | Curious how that happened.
        
             | belter wrote:
             | It's not true.
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | It is in the sense that the LLNL owns the EUV IP that
               | ASML implemented, and ASML is using this IP after
               | inheriting it from AMD+Motorola who sold off their stake
               | in EUV LLC.
               | 
               | All NatLab-Private partnerships have this kind of a
               | rider.
               | 
               | ASML is already starting another partnership with LLNL on
               | next-gen EUV.
        
           | KeplerBoy wrote:
           | How did this happen? Why does the US gov own the IP of
           | technology developed in the netherlands by a dutch company?
        
             | jmisavage wrote:
             | It's because the US National Laboratories developed all the
             | initial technology to enable EUV. ASML just builds the
             | machines.
        
               | belter wrote:
               | Why would state something that is not correct. Cymer is a
               | fully owned company by ASML.
        
               | ckastner wrote:
               | It seems that you are confusing ownership of the company
               | with licensing of the IP it uses.
               | 
               | AMD produces their own x86 under IP licensed by Intel
               | (and vice versa).
        
               | belter wrote:
               | It seems you are confusing the details and conditions of
               | a contract never disclosed publicly, of base research,
               | where a EU based company spent 20 years and billions of
               | EU funds to create a workable product.
               | 
               | In any case if the US adrenaline fueled diplomacy, starts
               | violating hundreds of years old borders of it's allies,
               | respect for ambiguous IP Laws, will be pretty low in the
               | list of priorities. :-)
        
               | ckastner wrote:
               | > _It seems you are confusing the details and conditions
               | of a contract never disclosed publicly_
               | 
               | The details have never been disclosed but it is well
               | known that this agreement fell within the domain of
               | national security and export controls.
               | 
               | Here's a press release [1] directly from ASML that
               | references these export controls. Even though this PR
               | actually relaxing DUV controls with respect to the U.S.,
               | it reaffirms that "EUV systems are also subject to
               | license requirements."
               | 
               | [1]: https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-
               | releases/2024/dutch-gover...
        
               | belter wrote:
               | "To access EUV technology, Intel in 1997 formed the EUV
               | LLC, which entered into a cooperative R&D agreement
               | (CRADA) with DOE. As part of this agreement, Intel and
               | its partners would pay $250 million over three years to
               | cover the direct salary costs of government researchers
               | at the national labs and acquire equipment and materials
               | for the labs, as well as cover the costs of its own
               | researchers dedicated to the project. In return, the
               | consortium would have exclusive rights to the technology
               | in the EUV lithography field of use. At the time, it was
               | the largest CRADA ever undertaken."
               | 
               |  _In return, the consortium would have exclusive rights
               | to the technology in the EUV lithography field of use_
               | 
               | https://issues.org/van_atta/
        
               | cowboy_henk wrote:
               | This is really a major simplification and glosses over a
               | lot. US National laboratories were involved but certainly
               | didn't "develop all the initial technology". This page on
               | the ASML website gives a good overview:
               | https://www.asml.com/en/news/stories/2022/making-euv-lab-
               | to-...
        
               | akie wrote:
               | That is such an oversimplification that it's honestly
               | insulting.
        
             | tristanj wrote:
             | Key EUV research was funded by the US government, and
             | developed at Lawrence Livermore/Berkeley Labs & Sandia
             | national labs. The IP is owned by the US government and
             | they created a licensing vehicle, Silicon Valley Labs, to
             | commercialize the technology. ASML acquired licenses to
             | these IPs with its acquisition of Silicon Valley Labs in
             | 2001.
        
               | jansan wrote:
               | My calendar says it is 2025. Shouldn't these patents have
               | expired by now?
        
               | ozim wrote:
               | I think this IP ASML uses is more like Coca Cola or KFC
               | recipe I did not see those going into public domain as
               | those are trade secrets not patents.
        
               | tonfa wrote:
               | Do you have source for this?
               | 
               | ASML acquired SVGI (Silicon Valley Group, doesn't seem to
               | have been created as a licensing vehicle, apparently
               | founded in 1977), but according to wikipedia it already
               | had access to the technology (SVGI, Intel, and some other
               | US chip manufacturers had access to the tech).
               | 
               | Nowhere in any of the press articles about the
               | acquisition they mention EUV as being a factor (seems
               | like standard industry consolidation instead). If
               | anything they were really far from delivering EUV at the
               | time (it took close to 20y).
        
             | stevenwoo wrote:
             | Other posters have given the answer but here is the answer
             | in an informative podcast released just over a month ago
             | with some details on the development process from some ASML
             | PR folks in San Diego (they have offices in the USA).
             | 
             | https://www.npr.org/2024/11/13/1212604208/asml-euv-
             | extreme-u...
        
               | KeplerBoy wrote:
               | thanks, i appreciate the link and will give it a listen.
        
         | frodo8sam wrote:
         | The supply chain for these machines is heavily dependent on the
         | US and the Netherlands is heavily dependent on US security
         | guarantees, just like the rest of Europe.
        
           | michaelt wrote:
           | _> The supply chain for these machines is heavily dependent
           | on the US_
           | 
           | The supply chain for iPhones is heavily dependent on Chinese
           | manufacturing.
           | 
           | We wouldn't normally expect Tim Cook to kowtow to the Chinese
           | Communist Party, though.
        
             | frodo8sam wrote:
             | I fully expect people like Tim Cook and Elon Musk to
             | appease the Chinese government if it benefits their
             | business and doesn't make them appear cozy with the CCP to
             | the U.S. public.
        
             | bmelton wrote:
             | > We wouldn't normally expect Tim Cook to kowtow to the
             | Chinese Communist Party, though
             | 
             | Why wouldn't we? They already do, and quite a bit.
             | 
             | They store Chinese user data exclusively in China on
             | Chinese servers run by Chinese companies despite the
             | obvious implication that the state has eyes into that data.
             | 
             | They censor apps out of the app store that violate Chinese
             | policies and comply with requests for censorship,
             | automatically deleting VPNs that could be used to bypass
             | the firewall or news apps that could access free
             | information. They censor information on Tianenman Square
             | protests, and Hong Kong democracy.
             | 
             | They have modified iCloud encryption and air-drop settings
             | to allow China to bypass them and limit time durations to
             | make them less effective as tools in protest organization.
             | 
             | They make investments into Chinese companies, they maintain
             | quiet neutrality on sensitive subjects that would imperil
             | their relations with the state, they adapt to their markets
             | and acquiesce their territorially disputed maps to China's
             | requests, etc.
        
         | neximo64 wrote:
         | Curious who you think uses these devices and who designs and
         | distributes the chips.
         | 
         | Without the American companies not sure the benefits would be
         | the same to the Netherlands or to ASML.
        
         | PeterStuer wrote:
         | They don't get Nordstreamed.
        
           | AndyMcConachie wrote:
           | We already got Nordstreamed by Nordstream.
        
         | dkjaudyeqooe wrote:
         | They get to avoid sanctions and other consequences. It's not
         | meant to be equitable.
         | 
         | But there are still benefits to NL since China is their
         | adversary too.
        
           | tmnvdb wrote:
           | I don't think those conversations get that far. The
           | Netherlands is one of the most "transatlantic" countries in
           | Europe and values the US/NATO relationship highly. In that
           | sense not much different from Taiwan.
        
         | vasco wrote:
         | Article from 2001: What ASML agreed to do to win U.S. approval
         | of SVG merger
         | 
         | > VELDHOVEN, the Netherlands -- To win U.S. clearance in the
         | purchase of Silicon Valley Group Inc., officials at ASM
         | Lithography Holding N.V. agreed to a number of restrictions and
         | obligations aimed at protecting lens technology and maintaining
         | operations in the United States. But the Dutch company's CEO
         | today said many of those requirements are compatible with
         | ASML's original goals in buying SVG.
         | 
         | > ASML today announced it had finally cleared U.S. review of
         | its planned purchase of San Jose-based SVG about seven months
         | after announcing plans to acquire the lithography supplier for
         | $1.6 billion in stock. Completion of the merger had been
         | stalled for several months because of concerns about U.S.
         | national security and protection of defense-related
         | technologies. The U.S. government agreement now clears the way
         | for ASML to complete its takeover of SVG within the next few
         | weeks, according to officials in Veldhoven (see today's story).
         | 
         | > "Clearly any CEO would like a completely free hand, with no
         | obligations," said ASML chief executive officer Doug Dunn,
         | during a conference call today following the announcement of
         | the agreement. Dunn said a free hand was "never going to be the
         | case with this particular merger/takeover. The U.S. government
         | took a very strong interest in this because, in their opinion,
         | it very clearly effected national security."
         | 
         | > Topping the list of requirements in the agreement is a
         | promise by ASML to make a "good faith effort" to sell SVG's
         | Tinsley Laboratories subsidiary within six months of completing
         | the acquisition of Silicon Valley Group. Tinsley's lens-
         | polishing technology was one of the major concerns blocking
         | ASML from finishing its purchase of SVG.
         | 
         | The article continues: https://www.eetimes.com/what-asml-
         | agreed-to-do-to-win-u-s-ap...
        
           | rtlknb wrote:
           | I would like to see what happens if Germany imposes export
           | controls on Pfizer 20 years from now because Biontech
           | developed the mrna vaccine sold by Pfizer.
        
             | saturn8601 wrote:
             | Everyone switches over to Moderna's offerings?
        
             | int0x29 wrote:
             | There is a lot of US national lab research in MRNA vaccines
             | to a point where it is questionable how much private
             | companies can own them.
        
           | belter wrote:
           | From 1999 - https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-ok-to-asml-on-
           | euv-effort/
           | 
           | "U.S. Undersecretary of Energy Ernest Moniz said, "if the EUV
           | technology proves viable, ASML has agreed to build a factory
           | in the U.S., similar to its Netherlands facility, as well as
           | to establish an American research and development center. The
           | factory will supply 100 percent of all ASML's sales in the
           | United States.""
           | 
           | Minoz said ASML has "agreed to help facilitate periodic
           | reviews among the Euclides EUV program members and U.S.
           | manufacturers." Euclides is a Europe-based research effort
           | supported by the European Community and based primarily at
           | ASML's R&D facilities in Eindhoven. "Collaborative
           | participation on a pre-competitive basis among these leading
           | lithography tool suppliers is the best approach for
           | strengthening the overall technology and assuring its
           | international acceptance,"
        
         | 6510 wrote:
         | ASML gets to see the Chinese government sink the big money into
         | rendering them obsolete, they get to see their stock implode
         | and to shut down RND. But the Netherlands will get to see ASML
         | pack their bags and leave. This of course besides further
         | unpredictable retaliation from China.
         | 
         | We also love it when our government takes marching orders from
         | the US.
        
           | creato wrote:
           | Don't like it? Don't license the critical tech for your
           | company from the US DOE: https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-
           | ok-to-asml-on-euv-effort/
        
         | AndyMcConachie wrote:
         | Maybe the kid of some ASML exec gets to go to Harvard?
         | 
         | Who knows. In the last batch of negotiations they never made
         | the deal public. These deals get made by elites and the public
         | never learns the details.
        
           | skrebbel wrote:
           | > Maybe the kid of some ASML exec gets to go to Harvard?
           | 
           | FWIW this is not a very common ambition people have here in
           | NL. Besides the implied blatant corruption, which I don't
           | think is the case here, I strongly doubt you can bribe any
           | Dutch executive with something as uncool as a bought Harvard
           | admission.
        
             | egl2020 wrote:
             | Harvard could be the safety school if the kid doesn't get
             | into Delft or Eindhoven.
        
         | skrebbel wrote:
         | This is just a small country getting strong-armed by the US.
         | You can be as pro NATO, pro US, pro "transatlantic relations"
         | as you can and they'll still screw you over. Seriously I can't
         | wait for the EU to get their shit together so we can stop being
         | such pushovers.
        
           | lokar wrote:
           | Then be prepared to spend 5%+ of gdp on defense, or become a
           | Russian satellite.
        
             | bigmattystyles wrote:
             | Is that so bad if that's the cost of independence? Go after
             | profiteers ruthlessly however.
        
               | lokar wrote:
               | I think it would be a better system (as an American)
        
             | mschild wrote:
             | 5%+ would likely put Europe ahead of the US in spending on
             | military. Even 3%+ would be such a significant amount of
             | noney that almost noone except the US could compete.
             | 
             | That said, its a price we should pay instead of relying on
             | the US as a partner.
        
               | trgn wrote:
               | Us and Israel show what the downstream effects on tech
               | innovation are. It may not be a coincidence
        
               | megous wrote:
               | There's innovation without having to constantly kill and
               | terrorize your neighbors and provoke wars to test your
               | tech.
        
               | trgn wrote:
               | no I understand that part, it just seems that at least
               | today, there is a relation between a dynamic tech
               | industry and high military spending. There's some
               | historical evidence too (gps, internet, ...). Europe has
               | a really stagnant tech industry (comparatively speaking),
               | and low military spending. anyway, maybe the relation is
               | spurious, e.g. maybe china is a good counterexample here
               | (?)
        
             | danieldk wrote:
             | It's so sad that the relationship between allies has come
             | to the point where NATO Article 5 has become a bargaining
             | chip against privacy/market fairness laws (DSA/DMA). I
             | think to a lot of Europeans it feels like Americans have
             | unilaterally ended a friendship.
             | 
             | It's true that Europe and Canada need to invest more in
             | defense, but the balance is currently 755 billion USD (US)
             | vs. 430 billion USD (EU) [1]. So it's certainly not like
             | the MAGA rhetoric pretends. The US has the benefit of being
             | a large nuclear power, but for a long time the US preferred
             | being the nuclear protector to avoid too much proliferation
             | on the continent.
             | 
             | Another annoying part of the 'they gotta pay up' Trump/MAGA
             | discourse is that it's starting to sound like a mob wanting
             | protection money. This is not how the NATO agreement works.
             | Countries have to spend 2% of their GDP on defense, but
             | it's not a payment to the US. They could buy Saab Grippens
             | if they wanted to.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2024
             | /6/pd...
        
               | lokar wrote:
               | I certainly find the trump rhetoric distasteful and
               | counterproductive. But I really think the EU would be
               | better off with the ability to defend themselves.
               | Depending on NATO article 5 always introduces a tempting
               | ambiguity, which can lead to miscalculation.
        
               | danieldk wrote:
               | I agree. Not only does it open the chance of
               | miscalculation, but also makes Europe vulnerable to this
               | kind of blackmailing.
               | 
               | It is still sad though. At any rate, it fits the pattern.
               | During his first term he was also more interested in
               | cozying up with autocrats.
        
               | openrisk wrote:
               | For a long time Europe was happy having the cake and
               | eating it. Pretending to be a united, peaceful, "soft
               | superpower" and reaping the peace dividends of a US
               | brokered world system. Yet everybody knows that almost
               | all power rests with its varied nation governments, that
               | they are all preoccupied with their own demons and
               | internal inequalities and that they all see the EU as an
               | alliance of convenience.
               | 
               | History called our bluff. Event after event, Financial
               | crisis (remember that?), the Brexit implosion of the UK,
               | the Syrian war / migration crisis, the Pandemic, the
               | Russian invasion, the Trumpist implosion of the US, the
               | Adtech invasion, the Energy transition disruption from
               | China etc. An endless list of setbacks that is not going
               | to end anytime soon.
               | 
               | The old continent is shaken to the very core but somehow
               | we are still in the denial phase.
        
               | danieldk wrote:
               | _The old continent is shaken to the very core but somehow
               | we are still in the denial phase._
               | 
               | I am not sure we are in denial. Have you seen defense
               | spending since the invasion of Ukraine? Moscow failed
               | blackmailing member states using gas. There was pretty
               | good collective purchasing and distribution of COVID
               | vaccinations, etc.
               | 
               | It's just a very slow process with 27 member states. But
               | it seems that every crisis so far as accelerated European
               | integration, which is a win.
        
               | openrisk wrote:
               | > every crisis so far as accelerated European integration
               | 
               | There is indeed some evidence of this but this is not a
               | cause to celebrate.
               | 
               | It is a reactive response and minimalist in scope. Once
               | the crisis is somehow mitigated, everybody is back
               | singing their old tunes. E.g., the various proclamations
               | for banking and capital markets union are still in deep
               | freeze, two decades after the financial crisis. The first
               | response to the Covid and migrant crises was to close
               | internal borders etc.
               | 
               | > It's just a very slow process with 27 member states.
               | 
               | Yes, and we should always celebrate and prioritise
               | preserving that individuality - when it is not hindering
               | the collective survival of our cultures and values.
               | 
               | The beauty of the European project is that it doesnt
               | follow a known pattern. It must invent the needed
               | mechanisms. At this juncture it feels there is a need for
               | drastic such invention. To stop running after disasters
               | and have some confidence in our future.
        
               | jnurmine wrote:
               | Hardly having the cake and eating it. Ideas of a pan-
               | European army were always shot down by either NATO or UK.
               | I mean, it's hard to develop an own army if you are not
               | allowed to by people who are part of the decision
               | process.
        
               | wbl wrote:
               | NATO is the EU with other hats plus US.
        
               | mongol wrote:
               | If the US rhetoric continues it will not be long until
               | you will see some currently non-nuclear EU countries
               | start talking about contingency options. It will take a
               | while, but it is good to remember that the reason there
               | are so few nuclear weapons states is not because it is
               | terribly hard, but because states have abstained for the
               | global good and benefit of non-proliferation. This with
               | the implied protection from states that have it.
               | 
               | If that no longer holds, then we enter a new era where
               | non-proliferation will be history.
        
               | jnurmine wrote:
               | I think already at this point, that there will be several
               | more nuclear states in Europe (inside EU) in the not so
               | distant future.
               | 
               | Many of the countries already have certified delivery
               | platforms, or have ordered them.
               | 
               | Of course, we're treading in new waters and it's
               | completely unknown if any existing contracts and treaties
               | will be honoured anymore, but that concern will be
               | secondary to this, I think.
               | 
               | I say it is a secondary concern because 1. basically any
               | European nation can put together a delivery system,
               | ballistic or cruising, should they have to; and 2.
               | creating the weapon itself is not really that big of an
               | undertaking for a modern high-technology nation state
               | level actor.
        
               | mongol wrote:
               | My bet is that we will see Poland to become the next
               | nuclear weapons state. Possibly in collaboration with
               | some neighbours around the Baltic Sea. Who knows, maybe
               | Ukraine joins
        
               | lth20B wrote:
               | As an EU citizen, what bothers me most about this is that
               | the EU is currently verbally attacked from both sides:
               | Lavrov started in the Carlson interview with saying that
               | relationships with Russia and the EU will be difficult
               | but relations with the US are still possible. Mededev
               | topped it off by saying that the EU cannot be forgiven
               | but the US is still an important partner.
               | 
               | YouTube channels that follow the Russian narrative
               | suddenly amplify this and pivoted from "the US is to
               | blame" to "the EU is to blame".
               | 
               | The US narrative (at least online) seems to shift
               | similarly: The US wasn't that important for the conflict,
               | it is the Brits, the French and the Eastern European
               | states who are the real hawks and who have to pay for the
               | war.
               | 
               | Since the EU will be left out of talks between Trump and
               | Putin, one wonders what the game is here and if secret
               | agreements have already been made.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Since the EU will be left out of talks between Trump
               | and Putin, one wonders what the game is here and if
               | secret agreements have already been made_
               | 
               | This is defeatist. Europe isn't bound by talks it's left
               | out of.
        
               | SllX wrote:
               | The DMA really is despicable though. Finding existing
               | monopoly language to be inadequate for their purposes,
               | the EU invented entirely new language that's
               | theoretically neutral laws on neutral principles but was
               | drafted with the intent of targeting specific foreign
               | entities in a comprehensive manner (mostly American, but
               | also TikTok which is a PRC corporation) threatening to
               | levy fines of 20% of their _global_ --not EU-- _global_
               | revenue.
               | 
               | With the full text of the law implemented, several of
               | these companies came up with compliance plans that don't
               | run afoul of the letter of the law, but the EC has
               | repeatedly and continued to say "not good enough",
               | effectively inserting itself in the design process of new
               | products and services from these companies going forward.
               | 
               | I'm against using NATO Article 5 as a bargaining chip
               | too, but seeing what popular support crappy extremely
               | targeted and extremely bureaucratically-minded laws like
               | this has, has me questioning how much the EU is really an
               | ally these days. It's a given that a lot of you feel this
               | way about the election of Donald Trump (twice), so I get
               | it, but it cuts both ways across the Atlantic right now.
        
               | Spooky23 wrote:
               | The long Russian strategy has been to undermine the NATO
               | via the US. The right wing nonsense in the US plays into
               | that, by design, and is happening at the worst time for
               | the US.
               | 
               | Reality is the value that the US brings is lower than it
               | was. Ukraine has chewed up the old Soviet-era WW2 style
               | tank divisions, but we've also seen that 4th generation
               | fighters can't survive in contested airspace and
               | traditional Navy ships need to stay offshore (for now) to
               | avoid being sunk by drone jetskis. Kinda a problem where
               | we have limited inventory of 5th generation aircraft in
               | either of our air forces.
               | 
               | The Navy sort of figured this out, but instead of
               | building submarines built stealth ships with no weapons.
               | 
               | We need a reappraisal of US military force structure,
               | based on the technology of 2026 vs 1986, as we're on the
               | path to end up like the Russians.
        
               | NickC25 wrote:
               | > _it 's starting to sound like a mob wanting protection
               | money_
               | 
               |  _Starting_ to sound like a mob? He 's been at this for
               | his whole adult life.
        
             | Chris2048 wrote:
             | > or become a Russian satellite
             | 
             | I'm sceptical Russia has this kind of power anymore, beyond
             | being a proxy for China..
        
             | yapyap wrote:
             | be a US sattelite, be a Russian sattelite.
             | 
             | Honestly it feels like the US is also becoming a Russian
             | sattelite with Trump & Elon having quiet gettogethers w
             | Putin.
        
             | impossiblefork wrote:
             | We're 3x as many as the Russians. There's no need for that,
             | unless we need to have a war for some other reason.
             | 
             | 5% is what Sweden needed in the 1980s to defend itself from
             | the whole Soviet Union + Warsaw Pact, without the EU and
             | without NATO.
        
             | FpUser wrote:
             | FUD
        
           | datadeft wrote:
           | Not going to happen when the leaders of the EU are largely
           | unelected career burocrats.
        
           | duxup wrote:
           | I wish the EU / EU nations were more assertive on any number
           | of topics.
           | 
           | More powers involved the better for me even as an American.
        
             | mola wrote:
             | I think it would increase the chances for escalation and
             | war. It's hard to be allies with knives on each other's
             | necks. If the us wants peace and power it should embrace
             | its allies like it did most of last century. If Europe
             | becomes militaristic then it's culture will become
             | militaristic, then will be constantly on the verge of war.
             | It will escalate.
             | 
             | I don't think this is really good for the US or anybody
             | else in the long term.
             | 
             | Europe should arm up, but US should cultivate a friendly
             | relationship. If Europe would arm up and the US keeps
             | pushing it'll either end up with escalation or US will have
             | to start dismantling European cohesion, both out comes
             | would be bloody.
             | 
             | Plus, If this tragedy happens, China would have an easier
             | time dominating.
        
               | duxup wrote:
               | I thing two parties can be assertive and allies.
               | 
               | Plenty of countries don't think the same things and are
               | not at war, and they're not even allies...
        
               | mola wrote:
               | If you're assertive and the other party keeps pushing
               | you, what is the outcome? Trump has made it clear he will
               | use US power to humiliate Europe while respecting their
               | adversaries. If Europe becomes more assertive, a
               | confrontation,probably a bloody one, will happen.
        
               | throw-the-towel wrote:
               | This is _exactly_ the Kremlin 's rhetoric behind invading
               | Ukraine. "Oh, the Evil West made us go to war!" As if you
               | couldn't just, you know, not go to war.
        
               | mola wrote:
               | Yes,but Putin can hardly be described as non
               | confrontational. His whole image is based on power.
               | European leaders and voters on the other hand are less
               | so. (They're getting there though) What I'm saying is
               | that if you'll have Europe embrace a more putinistic
               | style AND try to dominate them, you'll get a war.
               | 
               | Russia is already in that position, so you are already
               | dealing with an assertive opponent who only believe in
               | power. And you got war.
               | 
               | So I'm not saying that Putin's rhetoric is correct. but
               | it is a fact that it causes war. In Europe's case it's
               | avoidable if you don't go that route.
        
               | wbl wrote:
               | The war is already here. We just have a choice: dissuade
               | Putin by imposing costs or let him escalate his
               | aggression.
        
               | duxup wrote:
               | >If you're assertive and the other party keeps pushing
               | you, what is the outcome?
               | 
               | Disagreement?
               | 
               | People do that all the time.
        
               | mola wrote:
               | And people who only honor power usually solve these
               | disagreements using violence.
               | 
               | To avoid this outcome being common, we created a monopoly
               | on violence inside states so disagreements have to be
               | solved via courts and not violence.
               | 
               | We don't have this in geo politics.
        
             | barrenko wrote:
             | Of course, as EU nations are barely assertive they make
             | poor allies.
        
           | cscurmudgeon wrote:
           | Wasn't ASML started based on research funded by the US?
           | 
           | > In 1997, ASML began studying a shift to using extreme
           | ultraviolet and in 1999 joined a consortium, including Intel
           | and two other U.S. chipmakers, in order to exploit
           | fundamental research conducted by the US Department of
           | Energy. Because the CRADA it operates under is funded by the
           | US taxpayer, licensing must be approved by Congress. It
           | collaborated with the Belgian IMEC and Sematech and turned to
           | Carl Zeiss in Germany for its need of mirrors.[25]
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding
           | 
           | Before aiming to not be pushovers, EU should probably study
           | the history of their own companies.
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _This is just a small country getting strong-armed by the
           | US_
           | 
           | No, it's not.
           | 
           | It's ASML looking out for its largest customer. It's
           | Amsterdam looking out for its shipping lanes, as well as for
           | its Nine Eyes partner. Washington absolutely strong arms
           | Europe, but it's strategically aligned with the Netherlands.
           | 
           | Like, just think about the guy coming into the White House.
           | What about him screams quiet, behind-the-scenes diplomatic
           | win taker?
        
           | throw-the-towel wrote:
           | Why don't you see it as giving a concession to your ally?
        
           | MangoCoffee wrote:
           | Maybe this is a wake up call for Europe to take its own
           | defense seriously instead of relying on the US Both Bush and
           | Obama have called for NATO members to increase their military
           | budgets beside Trump. It took Russia invading Ukraine for
           | NATO members to finally take this issue seriously.
           | 
           | The significant geopolitical shake-up of the past few years
           | should serve as a clear warning to Europeans to prioritize
           | their own defense instead of depending on the USA.
        
           | harrall wrote:
           | The technology that makes ASML's machines possible (EUV
           | lasers) was researched by the US government with taxpayer
           | money and ASML bought the San Diego-based US company that was
           | producing the technology.
        
         | openrisk wrote:
         | Lots of trips to Silicon Valley to learn the "secrets" of being
         | masters of the digital universe.
         | 
         | Somehow it never leads to anything :-)
        
         | itishappy wrote:
         | They're allowed to export the wafer handling systems (roughly
         | half of their big litho machine) currently manufactured in
         | Wilton Connecticut.
        
         | blackeyeblitzar wrote:
         | Well for one, the EUV technology ASML is known for was licensed
         | to ASML under terms dictated by the US, since it is literally a
         | result of US government funded research.
        
         | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
         | I wonder to what extent ASML management looks at Kawasaki Heavy
         | Industries' contracts to build high speed rail in China and
         | says, "that's the outcome we want!"
        
         | datadeft wrote:
         | We can carry the flag for the US in the war of trying to
         | dominate the planet. I think it is a worthy goal.
        
         | yapyap wrote:
         | I feel like it's one of those things where not complying and
         | finding out is not a good option, especially with the disregard
         | and disrespect the US has shown towards the ICC I don't think
         | doing petty things that inconvenience the Dutch economy would
         | be unthinkable, with the new president I think saying the quiet
         | part out loud, - hell, screaming the quiet part as loud as you
         | can - might be the new norm
        
           | mg794613 wrote:
           | This has been going on long before Trump even thought about
           | going into politics.
           | 
           | There is a reason the US does not recognize the ICC. And we
           | also know they have the plans ready to free any soldier from
           | the Netherlands _if_ we were to arrest a American soldier.
           | 
           | And the US _will_ execute that plan. And the Netherlands
           | _will_ sit back and let it happen.
           | 
           | See, the world is a big schoolyard, and America is tired of
           | shaking people down for protection money and threatens us "to
           | start protecting ourselves".
           | 
           | I don't like Trump, but I can't deny he accelerates events
           | that should have started a while back. Very good for our
           | future, not so much for the US. But that's what they voted
           | for.
        
             | cscurmudgeon wrote:
             | > shaking people down for protection money
             | 
             | This is false though. No one pays US money for defense. The
             | 2% spending is on their own industry. The analogy breaks
             | down.
             | 
             | If anything, the US pays to support other countries/allies.
        
           | impossiblefork wrote:
           | I don't think that's true.
           | 
           | There's a reason the law you're talking about only authorizes
           | the president to do it. The lawmakers know that what they by
           | passing the law are threatening is crazy, so they put it in
           | the hands of the president, who they understand will never
           | use it. They make sure there's a strong gate separating them
           | and the other dog, then they bark. They know that actually
           | trying to extract people from the Hague would look something
           | like the Battle of Hostomel on steroids and would permanently
           | and irrevocably damage relations and they would do nothing of
           | the sort.
        
         | porridgeraisin wrote:
         | A lot of the IP in what ASML does is held by KLA, Intel, IBM,
         | etc. So america has quite a lot of say in it.
        
           | jnurmine wrote:
           | Yes, but their say will only work as long as both parties
           | feel that the other party honors their contractual
           | obligations.
           | 
           | Hearing the inaugural speech of President Trump, I feel that
           | some treaties and contracts might soon be worth less than the
           | paper they were written on, if breaking those somehow gives
           | national benefits in the quest to "make America great again".
           | 
           | That is how Mr. Trump's speech came across to me anyway.
           | Perhaps and hopefully that is untrue, I'm not a native
           | speaker, so perhaps I lost some subtle nuances.
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _what are ASML and the Netherlands in general getting out of
         | it?_
         | 
         | Wow, the conspiracy theories in this thread are nuts.
         | 
         | The Netherlands is a port economy and agricultural exporter.
         | The U.S. Navy protects the sea lanes it relies on. The
         | Netherlands have been a reliable and natural American ally
         | because our interests align--particularly when it comes to a
         | war as potentially devastating to international trade as a
         | Pacific conflict.
         | 
         | (Zooming in to ASML, their largest customer is TSMC.)
        
           | selimthegrim wrote:
           | Their intelligence agency might as well be a part of Five
           | Eyes at this point.
        
           | barrenko wrote:
           | It's an incredibly short-sighted, and might I say, such a
           | European question.
        
         | CalRobert wrote:
         | Well, they're a pretty big employer, and not in the Randstad.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | The Netherlands gets to continue purchasing F-35A fighters and
         | participating in the NATO nuclear sharing arrangement. This is
         | the ultimate guarantee of sovereignty which trumps any mere
         | commercial concerns. Quid pro quo.
        
           | tonfa wrote:
           | > The Netherlands gets to continue purchasing F-35A fighters
           | 
           | Is that a benefit? I got the impression some countries are
           | rather pressured by the US to spend their money on US
           | military equipment (instead of alternatives) rather than the
           | reverse.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | Which alternatives specifically? The F-35 is the only 5th-
             | generation multirole fighter available for purchase today.
             | The Netherlands could probably negotiate a purchase of
             | obsolete European fighters such as the Saab Gripen,
             | Eurofighter Typhoon, or Dassault Rafale. Those are adequate
             | for the air sovereignty mission but not much else. They
             | aren't significantly cheaper, are way behind in most
             | capabilities, and aren't survivable against a modern air
             | defense system. There are European consortiums working on
             | 6th-generation fighters but at this point those are paper
             | airplanes and it will be decades before they reach volume
             | production (if ever).
             | 
             | Most importantly, the F-35A is the only available platform
             | certified for nuclear weapons delivery so as long as the
             | Netherlands wants to continue participating in the NATO
             | nuclear sharing arrangement there is no alternative.
             | Germany looked into getting the Typhoon certified for the
             | nuclear strike mission but gave up due to high costs and
             | purchased the F-35A instead.
        
       | dbspin wrote:
       | These export controls seem particularly misguided in light of the
       | role Taiwan's TSMC play in chip design and manufacture. Long
       | term, clearly China is capable of catching up with ASML's tooling
       | - it's an economic necessity that they do so, even if (big
       | assumption) they'll always be X years behind the current process
       | node. Espionage and desperation are a powerful combination. Short
       | term, doesn't this make Taiwan an even more glittering jewel to
       | the CCP?
        
         | threeseed wrote:
         | > they'll always be X years behind the current process node
         | 
         | Which will render the country a technological back-water and
         | affect their ability to build the advanced systems needed to
         | compete in a war for Taiwan.
         | 
         | And given that China would be fighting against a war against
         | West + Japan + South Korea with support from at least a few
         | ASEAN countries they would need to be at the top of their game
         | to have a chance of taking Taiwan.
        
           | thefounder wrote:
           | What makes you think they need the latest technology to win a
           | war? Technology may be an advantage but the wars are dicy.
        
             | 0cf8612b2e1e wrote:
             | What fraction of servers are even running the latest and
             | greatest? Datacenters are not scrapping their entire fleet
             | the day TSMC releases a new node.
        
               | threeseed wrote:
               | We aren't talking about China being behind on one node.
               | 
               | It's a ban on anything less than 7nm. So every year the
               | discrepancy accumulates.
        
             | threeseed wrote:
             | What we've seen in Ukraine is the trend towards autonomous
             | aerial/naval drones.
             | 
             | And having compute superiority can make a big difference if
             | it ends up being a war largely conducted by competing AIs.
        
         | foooorsyth wrote:
         | So because China will steal it eventually, we should just give
         | it away now? That's your argument?
         | 
         | >clearly China is capable of catching up with ASML's tooling
         | 
         | The only thing clear to me is precisely the opposite. Nobody
         | has been able to catch up with ASML, including China. If China
         | is capable of catching up on their own (without espionage), why
         | would Taiwan even matter? Why would export controls on ASML
         | tooling even matter?
         | 
         | They matter because ASML and TSMC are companies built on secret
         | know-how that others can't replicate. Do we really need to
         | explain on HN that companies are built on secrets?
        
           | SllX wrote:
           | > why would Taiwan even matter?
           | 
           | The CCP has fully subscribed to irredentism and it has
           | popular support in the mainland. Taiwan will never not
           | matter.
           | 
           | But otherwise I agree with the rest of your argument.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _CCP has fully subscribed to irredentism and it has
             | popular support in the mainland_
             | 
             | Plenty of countries, particularly those in an economic
             | slump, have popular support for stupid wars. That changes
             | quickly when the war is started and the costs come home.
        
               | SllX wrote:
               | This doesn't stop them from starting stupid wars for
               | stupid reasons. Losing a war is not even a guarantee that
               | they will waive their future territorial ambitions or
               | concessions just as two examples: Spain and Gibraltar or
               | Argentina and the Falklands.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Argentina and the Falklands_
               | 
               | This is the example Xi, and those around him, would be
               | looking to.
        
               | SllX wrote:
               | Yeah. Irredentism is a fundamentally emotional ideology
               | borne from nationalism. It doesn't have to make sense, it
               | just has to be a rallying cry.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _It doesn't have to make sense, it just has to be a
               | rallying cry._
               | 
               | Correct. It's for domestic consumption. By the time
               | leadership is weak enough to be compelled into playing it
               | out, chances are it won't make military sense.
        
               | SllX wrote:
               | The _hope_ is that it not making military sense prevents
               | military action. We don't have any such promise from
               | reality, or much historic precedent to depend on, and in
               | the case of the PRC and Taiwan, it is CCP leadership
               | which is angling for a takeover of the independent nation
               | of Taiwan and the eradication of the Republic of China.
        
         | shrubble wrote:
         | The USSR was consistently 10-15 years behind in semiconductor
         | fabrication ability and this did matter. China is closer, but
         | still...
         | 
         | BTW the ASML technology is based in part on research that was
         | funded by the USA; which is why the USA has a say in who gets
         | it.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | Taiwan is a jewel that could quickly shatter into dust. There
         | are persistent rumors that the ASML tooling (and other key fab
         | machinery) is rigged for sabotage. If China were to mount a
         | serious invasion attempt then Taiwanese security forces or TSMC
         | employees would wreck the machinery beyond repair. This
         | implicit threat acts as a deterrent against invasion.
         | 
         | Even if China could capture the ASML tooling intact it would
         | only be useful for some reverse engineering. Actual production
         | requires both skilled local employees and ongoing support from
         | headquarters back in the Netherlands.
        
       | mg794613 wrote:
       | No, we don't "allign".
       | 
       | We get pressured until we do what America wants us to do.
        
         | fyrn_ wrote:
         | To be fair America funded a lot of the research. You could
         | argue they should't have taken so much US investment though.
         | It's like when founders give to much control of their company
         | away for the sweet VC cash, nothing is free.
        
         | int0x29 wrote:
         | They signed an agreement with the US government when they
         | bought an export controlled light source.
        
       | codeulike wrote:
       | ASML is so interesting. Its like sci-fi that one firm in the
       | Netherlands knows how to make the most complicated machine ever
       | made, and no one else can do it.
       | 
       | And it is arguably the most complicated machine ever made. 50,000
       | times a second, the EUV lithography machine hits a 25 micron drop
       | of molten tin that is moving at 70 meters per second with two co-
       | ordinated lasers, the first hit to change the shape of the drop
       | of tin in exactly the right way, the second hit to vaporise it,
       | creating Extreme Ultraviolet Light at the right wavelength to
       | etch chip designs onto silicon at "5nm process" sizes. Some labs
       | can cobble together something similar as a proof of concept, but
       | not well enough to make it feasible for mass production of chips.
       | 
       | Video about the light souce -
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge2RcvDlgw
       | 
       | No one else in the world is able to make these machines. If you
       | buy one it costs $150m and gets shipped to you in forty
       | containers on specially adapted planes. Very few firms have the
       | resources/know how to even run the machines - which is what makes
       | TSMC so important.
        
         | abdullahkhalids wrote:
         | While EUV lithography machines are surely a contender, the most
         | complicated machine every made is likely the Large Hadron
         | Collider (LHC). A 27 km tunnel in which protons (with cross
         | section about 10^-28 square meters) collide head on. Hard to
         | imagine this amount of alignment is possible.
        
           | sciencesama wrote:
           | It's not complex just gigantic, repeated sections. Definitely
           | not downplaying it but definitely euv is damn complex !!
        
           | tonfa wrote:
           | One differentiator is that it's factory produced (not just a
           | one off)
        
           | codeulike wrote:
           | True, perhaps if we call EUV Lithography the most complicated
           | fabricator machine that actually makes something. Whereas LHC
           | is a scientific experiment.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | It appears that ASML alone knows the correct rituals to keep
         | the Machine Spirit cooperative.
        
         | throwup238 wrote:
         | EUV technology was developed in partnership with the US
         | Department of Energy which is why the US can implement export
         | controls (it was an explicit condition of original deal with
         | the DoE). A significant part of the "secret sauce" is
         | manufactured in San Diego.
         | 
         | It's not really "one firm in the Netherlands", it's a global
         | collaboration that goes back to the 1990s. Intel was involved
         | from the beginning, they just dropped the ball.
        
           | to11mtm wrote:
           | > it's a global collaboration
           | 
           | Yep, even on the optics side (IIRC Zeiss, Nikon and Samsung
           | are big players in the optical side...)
        
           | milleramp wrote:
           | I saw a working euv laser at TRW in the early 2000's.
           | https://www.laserfocusworld.com/lasers-
           | sources/article/16550...
        
             | throwup238 wrote:
             | EUV LLC is the joint venture between ASML, Intel, etc
             | funded by the Department of Energy. That's the legal
             | structure that they used to bring the entire deal together.
             | TRW was a partner.
        
         | motaforever2019 wrote:
         | A part of reason No one else can make these machines is because
         | US has tight control on who's allowed to even develop that
         | tech.
        
           | tonfa wrote:
           | There were 9 manufacturers with access to the initial
           | technology, but only one managed to productionize it iiuc.
        
         | wenc wrote:
         | ASML seems to strike deep at personal identities: it's the only
         | European player in space dominated by American and Asian
         | companies.
         | 
         | Every time anyone mentions ASML, I see comments of adulation.
         | It's a very human tendency to hero-worship, especially fanboys
         | who only recognize the name but don't understand the history or
         | the ecosystem.
         | 
         | It's useful to remember that ASML didn't outcompete rivals
         | through brilliant innovation in a heated market race. Instead
         | it won mostly by being the last one standing. All the other
         | players dropped out. Nikon and Canon made strategic decisions
         | not to pursue EUV because it was too risky and expensive. ASML,
         | a small Phillips spinoff, couldn't do it alone either. It took
         | two decades and billions of investments backed by Intel and
         | TSMC to keep ASML going before the first breakthrough -- it was
         | a lot of persistence and incrementalism. ASML was essentially a
         | side bet/strategic hedge by Intel, TSMC and Samsung.
         | 
         | (all this is covered on Asianometry)
         | 
         | People associate ASML with the Netherlands, but it would not
         | have been possible without the massive contributions of the
         | Americans, the Taiwanese, the Germans, and the Japanese.
         | 
         | It's like Grigori Perelman and the Poincare conjecture -- he
         | didn't accept the Fields Medal for it because he felt that he
         | just happened to the last person to put the pieces together (he
         | was building on work by Thurston, Hamilton, etc.).
         | 
         | We see ASML as this amazing Dutch company, but we forget all
         | the other players were critical to making this singular company
         | possible (only because it happened to be the only one standing,
         | not because no one else is capable -- this is the great
         | misconception).
        
           | codeulike wrote:
           | Fair enough, I can see it was a team effort. But its still
           | interesting that all that work has focused on one place
           | without leaking and it now has global strategic importance.
           | 
           | And being the last one standing must mean something - good at
           | negotiating with funders, tenacious, perceived as a good long
           | term bet etc.
        
             | Tade0 wrote:
             | For a long time the Netherlands were somewhat of a tax
             | haven for companies relying heavily on R&D.
        
           | ojl wrote:
           | It seems for some reason that it's only important to keep
           | these things in mind and mention that it contains American
           | tech, is an international effort, etc, when discussing some
           | successful European company. But when discussing American
           | companies there is never any talk about such things. Why
           | can't ASML be seen as an amazing Dutch company even if they
           | also use tech from other countries?
        
         | trynumber9 wrote:
         | Cymer was the best purchase they ever made. But it also means
         | they're totally beholden to US export controls. That light
         | source is made in San Diego after all.
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | They were a big customer of a former company I worked for. I
         | had a session at our executive briefing center, and myself and
         | everyone else was just floored and geeking out on their tech.
        
       | Synaesthesia wrote:
       | Someone want to remind me?, why can't China have these
       | technologies again?
        
       | int0x29 wrote:
       | I regret to inform the various nationalists here this wasn't
       | really developed by one group. ASML signed contracts for research
       | and technology from multiple different countries. The Netherlands
       | isn't being strong armed here. It is having to comply with a
       | heavily negotiated contract that they signed decades ago when
       | they aquired a US based firm using export controlled US DOE
       | research.
        
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