[HN Gopher] TSMC begins producing 4-nanometer chips in Arizona
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       TSMC begins producing 4-nanometer chips in Arizona
        
       Author : heresie-dabord
       Score  : 337 points
       Date   : 2025-01-11 15:45 UTC (4 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.reuters.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.reuters.com)
        
       | Over2Chars wrote:
       | About time.
       | 
       | I seem to recall some detail about how they don't do the
       | packaging, and that' still on the mother island.
       | 
       | This suggests that may be the case:
       | https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/04/tsmc_amkor_arizona/
       | 
       | It's a move in the right direction, but not as much as may be
       | needed.
        
         | alephnerd wrote:
         | Packaging isn't done by TSMC.
         | 
         | Packaging is extremely low value and commodified, so companies
         | prefer to contract it out to OSATs like Amkor.
         | 
         | Same reason why most companies became fabless - margins are
         | much more competitive this way compared to owning your own fab.
        
           | typ wrote:
           | This margin-oriented mindset is arguably one of the driving
           | factors that makes the US lose its industrial base.
        
             | alephnerd wrote:
             | Companies in every country have this mindset.
             | 
             | Even Taiwan has largely offshored packaging to ASEAN,
             | China, and India. And Taiwan got packaging because the
             | Japanese manufacturers offshored to there.
        
               | selimthegrim wrote:
               | Aren't Intel and Samsung doing packaging research in the
               | US?
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | The research capacity for almost everything
               | semiconductors related was almost always in the US, but
               | before the CHIPS act, there wasn't much of an incentive
               | to invest in expanding that capacity here (aside from
               | Texas and Arizona, who had very strong semiconductor
               | public-private programs), because the margins are just
               | too dang low to attract any private investment
               | domestically.
               | 
               | The semiconductor industry is multifaceted, and it's very
               | difficult to be competitive in every single segment of
               | it.
               | 
               | For example, Taiwan does great at fabrication, but is
               | horrid at chip design. Israel and India are major chip
               | design hubs but are horrid at fabrication. Malaysia is
               | THE packaging and testing hub, but weak at fabrication
               | and nonexistent in design.
        
               | selimthegrim wrote:
               | NY?
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | NY dropped the ball in the 2010s with their
               | Nanotechnology Initiative, because it became a jobs-for-
               | votes scheme in upstate NY, and their key private sector
               | flagships (IBM, AMD, Kodak) collapsed and divested out of
               | the semiconductor industry (eg. IBM Micro + AMD becoming
               | GloFlo, GloFlo and IBM in a decade long legal feud,
               | Kodak's collapse, Apple leaving IBM for Intel and later
               | TSMC).
               | 
               | That is not to say NY's semiconductor industry is dead -
               | it's fairly active, but it's largely legacy nodes
               | targeted at commodified usecases such as Automotive.
        
               | nickpinkston wrote:
               | The difference is that only recently with the CHIPS Act
               | did the US gov't put money to support strategic
               | industries at large scale.
               | 
               | The US in its history after the 60's would invent a lot
               | of core industrial tech, but then we'd let Japan,
               | Germany, etc. actually commercialize because we didn't
               | want to pick winners.
               | 
               | We invented CNC machining, SMT / pick-n-place for PCBs,
               | industrial robot arms, etc., and these were all American
               | dominated, but foreign countries supported homegrown
               | companies long-term, and those American companies went
               | bust.
        
             | dingdingdang wrote:
             | Indeed, Apple* seem to be one of the only companies with
             | the long term vision to integrate vertically and improve
             | industry as a result. The short term pennies-on-the-dollar
             | of outsourcing is just brain-dead and non-innovative.
             | 
             | *this is an observation from someone who has never bought a
             | new apple product due to their increasingly closed eco-
             | system
        
               | markhahn wrote:
               | odd that you're not an Applehead but still think they're
               | somehow "improving" the industry.
               | 
               | perhaps you mean "they provide competition among peers
               | like Samsung and Sony, without which the industry would
               | go slower, perhaps with worse products"?
               | 
               | ah, just noticed that you qualified "bought a new
               | Apple..."
        
             | teitoklien wrote:
             | No, its a global product silicon chips, america ships em to
             | 100+ countries and will lose its edge if it doesnt stay at
             | the top.
             | 
             | Margins are crucial for this, the driving factor that made
             | US lose its industrial base, is red-tape, red-tape, red-
             | tape, red-tape, political interference, militant unionism
             | (unions are good and fine, militant unions are not), and
             | foolish gov laws which did not make sure that labour
             | standards are consistent for all products in american
             | market, to make sure slave-labour or extremely shoddy
             | labour standard based countries do not erode away great
             | american jobs and its industrial base.
             | 
             | Margins are fine, and good. Unfair competition, rules and
             | red-tape for domestic manufacturers but none for foreign
             | companies, is what killed it.
             | 
             | It's cheaper for a chinese company to ship to american
             | households than it is for a local american company to an
             | american household... , this is purely because of crazy gov
             | regulations.
        
             | dcrazy wrote:
             | Are you proposing that the United States should operate
             | factories without regard to margin?
        
               | grayhatter wrote:
               | Well... farming exists....
               | 
               | I'm not sure I agree microchips are as critical as stable
               | food supply, but I'd be willing to entertain the idea
               | they're close enough to be treated specially.
        
       | dr_dshiv wrote:
       | For some reason I'm concerned with being able to find the labor
       | required to make this succeed. I really wish them the best.
        
         | bwb wrote:
         | There were a ton of media scare articles on this when it came
         | out. It turns out it didn't pan out and staffing sounds solid.
         | 
         | https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/whos-afraid-of-east-asian-mana...
         | 
         | Point #1 on: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/at-least-five-
         | interesting-thin...
        
         | mywittyname wrote:
         | It's not like silicon chip manufacturing was an industry that
         | many Americans could get a job in. So it makes sense that the
         | country wouldn't have that many people able to fill these
         | roles, or universities churning out people with those skills.
         | 
         | It's a chicken and egg problem. Which is why this fab will
         | import worker while local universities put into place pipelines
         | to educate potential candidates and hopefully make the industry
         | self-sufficient.
        
       | dotdi wrote:
       | Can't wait to see the factory in Germany also starting to pump
       | out chips.
        
         | Cumpiler69 wrote:
         | German TSMC fab will produce 16nm there, not 4nm though. Useful
         | for the auto industry but much lower margin and less
         | strategically important than 4nm fab in the US.
        
           | KronisLV wrote:
           | That's still nice, especially considering that it's somewhere
           | between Haswell and Broadwell from 2014.
           | 
           | Maybe not the kind of progress or initiative that gets
           | headlines, but neither is it trying to push as far as what
           | Intel has been trying to do for the past few years.
        
             | Cumpiler69 wrote:
             | Sure, but coming dead last behind Taiwan, Korea, US, Japan
             | and China in the race to cutting edge semiconductor
             | manufacturing is nothing to brag about. That's like
             | celebrating for coming last.
             | 
             | This means you're getting the lowest industry margins,
             | meaning less profits, less money for R&D, less wages and
             | also less geopolitical leverage. This is nothing to
             | celebrate but should be an alarm clock for our elected
             | leader to wake the f up.
             | 
             | A lot of semi research is done in the EU, like at IMEC in
             | Belgium, but few of it ends up commercialized by EU
             | companies, so EU taxpayer money gets spent but other
             | nations get to reap the rewards.
        
               | bwb wrote:
               | Small steps, hopefully they move up from there.
        
               | lm28469 wrote:
               | I don't think they want cutting edge tech, they want to
               | be able to not have to stop their entire industry during
               | the next pandemic/war/whatever just because they can't
               | get their hands on a $2 chip made on the other side of
               | the world
        
               | looofooo0 wrote:
               | Well big part of the EUV tech used stems from Europe.
        
               | Cumpiler69 wrote:
               | False. EUV tech is 100% researched and manufactured in
               | the US.
               | 
               | Edit to answer @ looofooo0: EUV tech comes from Sandia
               | Labs research that ASML licensed, and the EUV light
               | sources (there's no such thing as an EUV laser, the Trmpf
               | is a regular laser firing into tin droplets for EUV
               | generation) are made by Cymer in the US which ASML
               | integrates them into their stepper which is a relative
               | commodity item in comparison to the light-source.
        
               | looofooo0 wrote:
               | ?? ASML builds the EUV machines in Europe. Zeiss builds
               | the optical compentents in Europe. Trumpf builds ne EUV-
               | Laser in Europe.
               | 
               | Moreover, most of the tech stems from the European-funded
               | EUCLIDES (Extreme UV Concept Lithography Development
               | System) project.
        
               | cromwellian wrote:
               | You're forgetting about 2 decades of US DoE funding of
               | EUV research through EUV-LLC which ASML joined late. A
               | lot of the early groundwork and foundational research was
               | done by DoE including using US built synchrotron
               | accelerators to try out various early approaches.
        
               | mainecoder wrote:
               | Europe takes credit for ASML we can't do it without them
               | the lions share of the work it takes to make the machines
               | is due to ASML, it would be nice if they had big tech
               | companies of their own. They decline of Europe is already
               | happening the wealthy aren't as greedy there at least not
               | greedy enough to work as hard as the American thus
               | eventually US interests will control Europe.
        
               | robertlagrant wrote:
               | > but few of it ends up commercialized by EU companies
               | 
               | ASML is massive, no?
        
               | buran77 wrote:
               | > nothing to brag about
               | 
               | Maybe some things shouldn't be about bragging but about
               | getting the job done, and cutting edge isn't the only way
               | to do it. If anything, the problem here isn't that it's
               | "just" 16nm but that the EU isn't developing a end-to-end
               | (research to manufacturing) true home grown industry and
               | still relies a lot on external partners like Intel to do
               | it from the outside.
               | 
               | But a good first step to develop enough talent locally
               | that can later flow into domestic alternatives.
        
               | dingdingdang wrote:
               | Agree with this take. Additionally it brings geopolitical
               | stability by not putting the onus on just one-to-two
               | countries (Taiwan, US) to produce the majority of the
               | worlds info-tech infrastructure. A 16nm process is still
               | very very modern in the grander scope of things.
               | 
               | Be interesting to see if there's integration with
               | research environments within the EU.. otherwise it could
               | fizzle in terms of it's true potential positive impact.
        
               | jvanderbot wrote:
               | It's all well and good shooting for the best, latest
               | semiconductors. It's also well and good securing the
               | source of the rest of the chips used by the rest of the
               | devices in the world. Cars, consumer goods, every
               | industrial machine ever, etc ... A stable domestic supply
               | chain might pay dividends, especially if international
               | order degrades at all.
        
               | selimthegrim wrote:
               | Have you seen the salaries at IMEC?
        
           | leoc wrote:
           | Strategic for that same German auto industry, though. I
           | assume that the Covid disruption to the supply of boring but
           | essential microcontrollers for cars was a wake-up call.
           | 
           | Speaking of the leading edge, though: while industrial
           | policy, like other kinds of investment, is easier with the
           | benefit of hindsight, there must be some regret at having let
           | Global Foundries drop out of the peloton.
        
           | PittleyDunkin wrote:
           | What Europe wants is not necessarily profitability but rather
           | resilience. You can't leave this kind of decision up to the
           | irrationality of market forces. So--you're correct, germany
           | (or the EU) _should_ subsidize chips if they want to weather
           | the future.
        
         | UltraSane wrote:
         | How much does Germany's very expensive electricity affect
         | TSMC's costs?
        
           | varjag wrote:
           | At that size of node, semiconductor manufacturing costs are
           | not material constrained.
        
             | UltraSane wrote:
             | electricity is not "material" it is energy input.
        
               | nothrabannosir wrote:
               | I'm assuming he means capex vs opex ? Electricity is
               | opex.
        
           | markhahn wrote:
           | chip fabs are big and contain a lot of things like pumps (and
           | even a few very exotic lasers). but they're not power-
           | intensive the way a steel plant is - or even a datacenter.
        
         | Aldipower wrote:
         | If you mean the Intel factory, this is delayed by 2 years. If
         | it ever will come.. And the other planed Wolfspeed factory is
         | cancelled completely.
        
           | ulfw wrote:
           | Both will never come. For obvious reasons.
        
             | rajamaka wrote:
             | What are the obvious reasons?
        
               | Cumpiler69 wrote:
               | I guess the expensive energy in Germany, lots of red tape
               | and nimbyism, and not enough state subsidies which is
               | what these companies were hoping for when they were
               | fishing for places to open fabs.
        
               | kuschkufan wrote:
               | Well, your guess is off the mark.
        
               | Cumpiler69 wrote:
               | Care to explain why?
        
               | PittleyDunkin wrote:
               | There's also the fact that every single fab opened
               | outside of Taiwan reduces Taiwan's national security.
        
               | swarnie wrote:
               | Is Taiwan's national security the major concern here? I
               | assumed everyone was just bluffing at that until they can
               | get their own supply.
               | 
               | Getting dragging in to an East China unification war
               | because you can't squeeze lighting in to rocks on time is
               | a tragedy.
        
               | whimsicalism wrote:
               | > East China unification war
               | 
               | Are you from China? I find this phraseology very odd
        
               | PittleyDunkin wrote:
               | Who cares? the situation is the same regardless: china
               | wants taiwan, taiwan doesn't want to be a part of china,
               | and the single largest factor blocking china from taking
               | taiwan is TSMC. Not the american navy, not sanctions, not
               | anything else. If TSMC weren't a factor they could simply
               | destroy the island and move in.
        
               | whimsicalism wrote:
               | I care because I am interested in how language reflects
               | and shapes beliefs and I have never seen that phrase
               | before.
        
               | mjh2539 wrote:
               | This is too simplistic.
               | 
               | The ROC has not had any formal military alliance with the
               | United States since 1979. TSMC was not founded until
               | 1987, didn't start producing chips until 1993. It was not
               | even publicly traded until 1994 (and that was only on the
               | Taiwanese stock exchange; it was listed on the NYSE in
               | 1997).
               | 
               | The reason the PRC hasn't done it is because it would
               | make no sense politically or economically. They have a
               | lot more to lose and a lot less to gain than Russia did
               | in 2014 (Sevastopol was/is seen as integral to the
               | Russian navy...there is no parallel with Taiwan as the
               | PRC has plenty of excellent ports on the mainland).
               | 
               | And the continued existence of Taiwan gives the PRC a
               | convenient excuse to sabre-rattle.
        
               | swarnie wrote:
               | > Are you from China?
               | 
               | No? I'm from the UK if it matters but i have no
               | particular allegiance to east, west or chip manufacturing
               | facilities.
               | 
               | East China / West Taiwan is for lack of a better word, a
               | meme. Unification war i guess i dredged up from 40k
               | 
               | Either way my point stands. Every country that has
               | supported Tiawan is scrambling to get chips online
               | domestically because they don't need to get involved in
               | the start of WW3. To claim otherwise is just
               | disingenuous.
        
               | markhahn wrote:
               | No, the world outside PRC don't believe Taiwan should be
               | "unified" against its will. The fact that Tiawanese
               | industry is quite important is more of a gain factor, not
               | polarity.
        
               | swarnie wrote:
               | Do they believe enough to go fight a war over it?
               | 
               | If we assume everyone can make their own hardware at
               | home.
        
               | rad_gruchalski wrote:
               | As long as TSMC is the major chip hub.
        
               | corimaith wrote:
               | Taiwan forms the first Island chain that currently keeps
               | China's navy constrained.
               | 
               | Loosing Taiwan is tantamount to accepting Chinese
               | military hegemony in SEA and East Asia. No need to export
               | ideology, it's more like if I put up tariffs against
               | Chinese goods to protect domestic business and then a few
               | PLAN warships park up right next to my trade corridors.
        
               | rad_gruchalski wrote:
               | > Is Taiwan's national security the major concern here?
               | 
               | Yes. It's called "semiconductor shield". As long as China
               | cannot manufacture chips like those made in Taiwan, it
               | will thread carefully.
        
       | antirez wrote:
       | The point here would be that after N years, US workers at the
       | site would gain enough insights to replicate the processes with
       | American companies? Because otherwise what's the point? Will TSMC
       | allow that? Because to just have more internal "normal" jobs in
       | the US is a small gain. There is a big ST site here in Catania,
       | while they produce many chips most of the workers are blue
       | collars.
        
         | smallerfish wrote:
         | The point is redundancy in case China follows through on their
         | threats to invade.
        
           | Pet_Ant wrote:
           | This redundancy makes me worried that the US will view
           | Taiwanese sovereignty as disposable. While the US has given
           | much for the defence of Ukraine, it's always been careful to
           | make sure it's not enough for Ukraine to win but only enough
           | to make it expensive for Russia hopping they'll reconsider.
           | Russia has won there and I suspect they'll joe be willing to
           | let China have the islands now too.
        
             | ForHackernews wrote:
             | Short of nuclear weapons, I'm not sure what would allow
             | Ukraine to "win". Even given all the hardware, Ukraine
             | doesn't have the staff or experience to field a full NATO
             | air wing and integrate it to fight according to NATO
             | combined arms doctrine -- if that even WOULD produce a
             | "win" (there is an untested assumption that a NATO-standard
             | military could trounce Russia)
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | Ukraine needs to hold the line, keep Russia sanctioned
               | and let it burn itself out economically...or wait for
               | Putin to die.
               | 
               | The Russian economy is grinding to dust right now, and
               | the Soviet vehicle inheritance evaporating.
               | 
               | At some point, they stop being able to pay workers and
               | troops, and while martial law can keep things moving,
               | it's all getting much more expensive after that.
               | 
               | Putin has been very careful to try and keep the war
               | awaybfrom his Moscow powerbase...so it's clear he
               | recognises his authority and position is far from
               | unlimited.
        
               | ForHackernews wrote:
               | I agree with all that, but none of that translates to a
               | traditional battlefield triumph. Maybe providing more
               | long-range weapons would enable symbolic strikes near
               | Moscow or on oligarchs' dachas, but that's the only case
               | I can think of where materiel might help with that
               | strategy.
               | 
               | Ukraine needs more soldiers, hard without full
               | conscription, with the pool of heroic volunteers already
               | committed, and it needs more artillery shells, that NATO
               | can't readily supply because NATO never imagined playing
               | quartermaster this kind of warfare in the 21st century.
        
               | actionfromafar wrote:
               | Ukraine can't even properly equip the soldiers it already
               | has. Supporting countries could dig a _lot_ deeper in
               | their supplies, they will have ample time to rearm.
        
               | Pet_Ant wrote:
               | Ukraine needs boots on the ground. Finland and Poland
               | from the West driving on Moscow for a regime change with
               | the rest of NATO behind them.
               | 
               | But apparently Ukraine are developing nuclear weapons so
               | we'll see.
        
             | phantomathkg wrote:
             | Selling the secret sauce to US definitely make Taiwan
             | disposable. But I also bet TSMC doesn't have a choice as
             | whoever in power in US can also impose sanction/tariff or
             | whatever they can to make TSMC to compile.
        
               | Cumpiler69 wrote:
               | TSMC is a publicly traded company and like all publicly
               | traded companies it has no allegiance to any country
               | (other than historical legacy and emotions) and will
               | always relocate to where it's most safe and profitable
               | for providing returns to its shareholders, just like how
               | many profitable companies moved to UK, US and Switzerland
               | during WW2 and how many EU companies are doing the same
               | thing today.
               | 
               | If the US will provide TSMC with better deals on all
               | fronts than what the Taiwanese government can, then
               | there's nothing that can stop them from slowly abandoning
               | Taiwan and moving the HQ and vital operations to the US
               | over time, especially that the Taiwanese government is
               | not a major shareholder in TSMC.
        
               | boxed wrote:
               | Companies don't magically not have any humans in them as
               | soon as they are on a stock market.
        
               | mistercheph wrote:
               | It's about as close as you can get though to capital
               | efficiently allocating itself
        
               | Cumpiler69 wrote:
               | How does this invalidate what I said?
               | 
               | Have you heard of Operation Paperclip? The moment China
               | steps in Taiwan, all those vital TSMC engineers will be
               | flown to the US along with the critical IP and given a
               | blank cheque to replicate Taiwan operation on US soil
               | ASAP. TSMC is preemptively building the infrastructure
               | there in preparation for such an event, so it can outlive
               | whatever happens to Taiwan. TSMC has little inventive to
               | tie itself to Taiwan and its people who are not its
               | employees. Every big company thinks and acts like this.
               | Taiwan can't force TSMC to stay there if it doesn't want
               | to.
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | Paperclip happened _after_ Germany lost the war.
        
               | Cumpiler69 wrote:
               | I don't see how this is relevant or invalidates my point.
               | You think the US will wait for the end of the war to do
               | that or what?
               | 
               | Also, German scientists who could leave the country were
               | fleeing to the US before the Nazi regime started WW2 and
               | also during the war, before it was a formal operation to
               | gather them as prisoners of war when Germany lost.
        
               | maxglute wrote:
               | Reminder that TSMC WANTs to stay in TW... they did not
               | want to expand in US at all. Arizona fab annoucement
               | after months rumormill was big surprise at the time since
               | TSMC did massive TW capex expansion and had no $$$ for US
               | fabs, and it was combination of CHIPS carrots ($$$) and
               | US sticks that got Arizona greenlit. Morris Chang
               | publically said CHIPS would fail to get US semi
               | leadership, that US policy is "doomed" / "futile", that
               | is not the words of someone who wanted to erode TW's
               | silicon shield. IMO TSMC Arizona's current (likely
               | ongoing) dependence on imported TW talent makes it pretty
               | clear TW is keeping tight leash.
               | 
               | >Taiwan can't force TSMC
               | 
               | IIRC TW foreign minister said a few years ago it was pure
               | American wishcasting to expect TSMC employees to be
               | evacuated before TW women and children. Around the same
               | time TW politicians rebuffed the idea that TW would
               | destroy their own fabs. That's TW's leverage, they
               | control who gets on and off the planes and boats. Reality
               | is if PRC makes a move, they'll lock down the airfield
               | and shores, that's PRC's leverage - to control if planes
               | and boats get to leave in the first place. Ultimately, TW
               | politicians knows locking semi talent on the island is
               | leverage, especially if they lose, because most of them
               | won't have a ticket off the island.
               | 
               | Not to mention paperclip is the victors getting the
               | spoils, and US is far from assured any victory or there
               | would be any TSMC employees left to paperclip if
               | motivated PRC wants to deny. Or that TSMC is like 70k
               | people excluding their families. 300k if you include
               | other direct TW semi employment. More if you include
               | indirect (supply chain), and ultimately there's
               | considerable sole source semi suppliers on TW that TSMC
               | US won't be functional just like how ASML can shut down
               | hardware by stopping inputs for maintenance. It's not
               | just packaging and domestic talent that's another
               | bottleneck, TSMC Arizona stops with TW inputs as much as
               | it doesn't without ASML ones. And so far there's no real
               | public plan to reshore that supply chain in US.
        
               | mytailorisrich wrote:
               | In the game betwen China and the US, the legal status and
               | 'allegiance' of TSMC is not relevant. What is relevant is
               | who controls the fabs, i.e. where the fabs are physically
               | located.
               | 
               | It is also naive to think that governments (US and
               | especially ROC/Taiwan) do not have influence over TSMC.
               | This sort of thing is not necessarily measured by level
               | of shareholding.
        
             | mytailorisrich wrote:
             | > _they'll be willing to let China have the islands now
             | too_
             | 
             | The islands are Chinese. The US back Taiwan as an anti-
             | communist and anti-China (divide and conquer) tactic,
             | including because its location. If the communists had lost
             | the civil war, the mainland and Taiwan would all have
             | remained under ROC control and it would have been
             | interesting to see what the US would have come up with,
             | instead (academic and thought experiment but interesting to
             | imagine nonetheless).
             | 
             | In Ukraine the US don't want to be dragged in a war against
             | Russia and things have played well for them so far (really
             | the US are the only winners so far).
        
               | throwaway494932 wrote:
               | > The islands are Chinese.
               | 
               | "In June 2008, a TVBS poll found that 68% of the
               | respondents identify themselves as "Taiwanese" while 18%
               | would call themselves "Chinese".[33] In 2015, a poll
               | conducted by the Taiwan Braintrust showed that about 90
               | percent of the population would identify themselves as
               | Taiwanese rather than Chinese.[34]" [1]
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwanese_people
        
               | mytailorisrich wrote:
               | That is quite irrelevant in addition to being misleading.
        
               | rob74 wrote:
               | The same way as Ukrainians wanting to live in an
               | independent country is irrelevant?
        
               | mytailorisrich wrote:
               | Change of subject? Russia's main aim in Ukraine was/is
               | regime change ('main' because they obviously do want to
               | annex the Donbas), a bit like what happened in Iraq in
               | 2003...
               | 
               | I did not expect to be able to seriously discuss
               | geopolitics here, TBH, it never works and it is never
               | possible to dig deeper. Case in point...
        
               | rob74 wrote:
               | Actually I agree with you - if Russia's main aim in
               | Ukraine was changing the regime, that would have turned
               | Ukraine into something like Belarus, which I don't really
               | consider independent...
        
               | suraci wrote:
               | I like thought experiment.
               | 
               | let's think
               | 
               | 1. CCP took over California by force 2. CCP killed
               | everyone who resists 3. CCP leaved, but built a puppet
               | regime 4. The puppet regime rewrite schoolbook, taught
               | everyone they're not American 5. 100 years later, a poll
               | found that 68% of the respondents identify themselves as
               | Californians
               | 
               | I must admit this is a bad thought experiment because
               | Americans lives in a stolen land, it's not same as Taiwan
        
               | ozborn wrote:
               | Taiwan has an aboriginal population as well, there are
               | very few countries where the original settlers are
               | recognizable as the current population without squinting.
               | China is one of the worst offenders, with the westward
               | expansion of the Qing Empire contemporary with American
               | westward expansion. Moreover, when America started
               | serious decolonizing in the 20th Century (Philippines)
               | and ending residential schools, China invaded Tibet and
               | continues to pursue aggressive assimilation in its
               | Western regions.
        
               | suraci wrote:
               | China is not a single-ethnicity country. For thousands of
               | years, most of the time, the majority and minority ethnic
               | groups have lived together on this land. There have been
               | wars and integrations thousands times and thousans years.
               | this must be hard for you to understand, right? I can
               | understand that you might unconsciously use your own
               | history to comprehend the history of Asia. In addition,
               | all forms of ethnic separatism have the support of the
               | United States. But I think you already know this.
               | 
               | BTW, the Qing Empire is rule by a minority ethnic(Man Zu
               | )
               | 
               | And, by race, we are all Asians, can you understand the
               | difference?
               | 
               | You are like comparing the genocide of Native Americans
               | to a war between two Native American tribes.
        
               | Pet_Ant wrote:
               | We wouldn't let native american tribes take each others
               | land nowadays either.
        
             | YetAnotherNick wrote:
             | TSMC being 2-4 years ahead of Samsung/Intel has nothing to
             | do whether US would be willing to go on a nuclear war and
             | move the entire world decades if not millenias back. No one
             | can go on a direct war with a country with nukes unless
             | they are ready for mutually assured destruction.
        
               | questinthrow wrote:
               | Russia thought the same when it thought it could hide
               | behind its nukes. Alas.
        
               | YetAnotherNick wrote:
               | And it did. US could do very very significant harm to
               | Russia's military if nuclear retaliation wasn't a threat.
               | And probably that would be cheaper than the
               | weapons/training that they are giving to Ukraine.
        
               | oremolten wrote:
               | >As of September 30, 2024, the U.S. Ukraine response
               | funding totals nearly $183 billion >Russia's official
               | 2022 military budget is expected to be 4.7 trillion
               | rubles ($75bn), or higher, and about $84bn for 2023
        
               | Pet_Ant wrote:
               | Sorry, but this leads to nuclear proliferation. This
               | means unless you have nukes, you are a nobody.
               | 
               | At this point it's better to just have that nuclear war
               | instead of the rest of us being pawn of nuclear states.
               | There is no dignity in this.
        
               | mainecoder wrote:
               | Well I commend you that would rather live in a post
               | nuclear hellscape dystopia rather than be the citizen of
               | a vassal state of a Nuclear Power.
        
             | ekianjo wrote:
             | > Taiwanese sovereignty as disposable
             | 
             | Your are describing the statu quo as almost no country
             | officially recognizes Taiwan
        
             | cyanydeez wrote:
             | the current regime will make choices based on what's
             | profitable for the companies involved. It's unlikely that
             | losing TSMC will improve profits for American companies, so
             | having this redundancy is for short term applications.
             | 
             | The business interests _are_ the political landscape today.
        
           | WhereIsTheTruth wrote:
           | "invade" = western propaganda
           | 
           | The proper word is "reunite", as it was agreed with the US
           | 
           | It sure gonna hurt the US Military industrial complex, no war
           | = no money
           | 
           | "1982 U.S.-PRC Joint Communique/Six Assurances
           | 
           | As they negotiated establishment of diplomatic relations, the
           | U.S. and PRC governments agreed to set aside the contentious
           | issue of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. They took up that issue
           | in the 1982 August 17 Communique, in which the PRC states "a
           | fundamental policy of striving for peaceful reunification"
           | with Taiwan, and the U.S. government states it "understands
           | and appreciates" that policy. The U.S. government states in
           | the 1982 communique that with those statements "in mind," "it
           | does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales
           | to Taiwan," and "intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms
           | to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final
           | resolution." The U.S. government also declares "no intention"
           | of "pursuing a policy of 'two Chinas,'" meaning the PRC and
           | the ROC, "or 'one China, one Taiwan.'""
           | 
           | https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12503/1
        
             | thworp wrote:
             | > "invade" = western propaganda
             | 
             | > The proper word is "reunite", as it was agreed with the
             | US
             | 
             | So the US and the PRC had some milquetoast diplomatic
             | correspondence which did not include Taiwan. If the PRC now
             | occupies Taiwan against the will of its people and
             | population, presumably under fire from the Taiwanese army,
             | it' just a "reunification"?
        
               | WhereIsTheTruth wrote:
               | Taiwanese are pro-reunification, Tsai wich is pro-US and
               | pro-indepandance had quit due to her party loosing local
               | elections
               | 
               | https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Taiwan-elections/Taiwan-
               | s-T...
               | 
               | https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/2024_
               | Leg...
        
               | thworp wrote:
               | An election result is not a single-issue poll and the
               | current government supports the status quo anyway (just
               | being fundamentally more open to dialogue). A clear
               | majority of the opulation supports de-facto independence
               | (the current status) or even formal independence [0].
               | 
               | [0] https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023
               | /09/02/...
        
               | WhereIsTheTruth wrote:
               | "It's only a democracy if the results suits our
               | interests"
               | 
               | You are not being objective, a poll is not a vote
               | 
               | In a vote, the registered population gets to vote using
               | official ID
               | 
               | In a poll, only 'god' knows who the respondents are
        
               | sct202 wrote:
               | Very misleading to link to the legislative election
               | results, when the KMT party only won 33% of the
               | Presidential vote. And on top of that the KMT's actions
               | when in power are to preserve the status quo (effectively
               | independent, make money, avoid war), even if their long
               | term vision is peaceful unification with a democratic
               | China.
        
           | ekianjo wrote:
           | China has no needs to invade when they can do a very
           | effective blockade without firing one shot.
        
         | ForHackernews wrote:
         | I know Intel has also opened a site nearby. Rumor is that many
         | of the TSMC staff, having seen the lifestyle of American
         | engineers in Arizona have started quietly applying with Intel.
        
         | vessenes wrote:
         | No that's not the goal -- having the fabs onshore means US
         | intelligence agencies and executive/legislative branch will
         | have access. This is contra to Taiwan where the Taiwanese
         | government oversees this access.
         | 
         | Some people might like the sound of this, some might hate it,
         | but day to day, there are significant portions of the US gov
         | workforce who deal with counter espionage, corporate safety,
         | and of course more publicized are the parts that enforce or
         | "request" compliance with US goals, mandates, projects and so
         | on.
         | 
         | Once a factory is on shore, literally on your sovereign land,
         | you have a lot more say.
         | 
         | No different than wanting your banking managed on networks in
         | your country, or your weapons manufactured in country.
         | 
         | That said, generally states have competed for sites like this,
         | and cities like San Jose, Austin and Portland have benefited
         | from having large silicon industry economic bases. I can't
         | speculate if TSMC will benefit local industry that much, but I
         | imagine it can't _hurt_ -- it's extra jobs, and probably a
         | boost for suppliers that are convenient to the foundries.
        
       | wdb wrote:
       | I wished they produced the chips in Europe instead of United
       | States.
        
         | Cumpiler69 wrote:
         | They do in Dresden Germany, but not nearly as cutting edge as
         | the ones in US and Taiwan. US is a more useful strategic ally
         | for Taiwan than EU. Not to mention the more expensive energy in
         | Germany vs the US.
         | 
         | EU finds out the hard way that not having had energy
         | independence plus a weak/non-existent military relying mostly
         | on the US, has costly second order externalities that voters
         | never think about or factor in their decisions(I'm European).
         | 
         | The best way to have peace is to always be ready for war. Being
         | a non-armed hippie pacifist nation sounds good in some utopic
         | fantasy world like the Smurfs, but in reality it only invites
         | aggression from powerful despots like Putin and Xi and even
         | your strong ally, the US, can exploit your moment of weakness
         | and security dependence on it, to push its own agenda and trade
         | terms on you.
         | 
         | After all, whenever EU falters, America gains:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jE-E1lQunm0
        
           | jraby3 wrote:
           | That's true, but there is a large financial cost to always
           | being ready for war. The US has spent 80 years being the
           | "policeman of the world" for good or bad. Lots of bad
           | decisions but the world also takes for granted the open seas,
           | etc. that come at a great cost to Americans in reduced social
           | services like health insurance and higher education.
        
             | throw5959 wrote:
             | Nonsense, Americans pay the most for health insurance. It's
             | merely about how you use the money. Same with education.
             | The American economy is so great it could afford an entire
             | second military industrial complex and still have enough
             | money left for healthcare and education.
        
             | Cumpiler69 wrote:
             | Firstly, you don't need to spend America levels (more than
             | than the next world powers combined) to have an efective
             | military deterrent, since currently most EU member states
             | barely spend 2% GDP on defense which is too little. You can
             | have a strong military AND welfare services if you're smart
             | about your state finances which many EU members are
             | not(looking at you Germany), especially since defense
             | investments create more jobs and innovations flowing back
             | into the state coffers. Switzerland is a good example.
             | 
             | Secondly, America's defense is way more expensive than it
             | needs to be due to a lot of high level corruption and
             | lobbying from the military industrial complex profiteering
             | when it comes to purchasing decisions, where a 10$ bag of
             | bolts is bought by the military for 50K$, shovelings
             | taxpayer money into the right private industry pockets. EU
             | can achieve similar results with way less cost if it wanted
             | to by minimizing this style of corruption but that's easier
             | said than done. The only one rivaling America's military
             | inefficiency is Germany who spends more than France, a
             | nuclear power with aircraft carriers, but can't afford to
             | issue underwear and dog tags to new conscripts.
             | 
             | Thirdly, America's lack of social services is not due to
             | its powerful military, but due to political choices and
             | inefficiencies. It could easily have better welfare if it
             | wanted to since it can afford it with the world's largest
             | GDP, but it chooses not to, since the current status quo is
             | enriching a lot of private enterprises and parasites, while
             | the concept of even more welfare is usually not a popular
             | topic with the US voters which see welfare recipients as
             | lazy and an unnecessary money sink funded by higher taxes
             | on the middle class which they don't want. So their issue
             | is social and political, not economical.
        
               | _heimdall wrote:
               | > Firstly, you don't need to spend America levels (more
               | than than the next world powers combined) to have an
               | efective military deterrent,
               | 
               | Would you consider most European countries to actually
               | have an effective military deterrent?
               | 
               | By troop count, munitions stock, or the number if tanks
               | and jets I don't see anyone as having a particularly
               | impressive military in Europe. That doesn't mean they
               | couldn't organize one if needed, but that's a different
               | issue.
               | 
               | > Thirdly, America's lack of social services is not due
               | to its powerful military, but due to political choices
               | and inefficiencies.
               | 
               | You're missing a big factor here, cultural differences.
               | America was built on the idea of people making a way for
               | themselves and living or dying by their own successes or
               | failures. We've moved pretty far away from that and do
               | now have social programs and safety nets, smaller than
               | many European countries' nets, but the expectation of
               | making a way for yourself is still under the surface.
               | Many people simply don't want the level of welfare
               | programs seen in other countries.
        
               | riffraff wrote:
               | > By troop count, munitions stock, or the number if tanks
               | and jets I don't see anyone as having a particularly
               | impressive military in Europe.
               | 
               | compared to what? Who does Europe need to fight who has
               | more ammo, tanks, jets and _nukes_? Russia has proven
               | itself unable to take on Ukraine with half-assed support
               | by the west, China and India are far away.
               | 
               | Shall Europe prepare to fight the US for Greenland?
        
               | _heimdall wrote:
               | Russia has an estimated 1.5 million troops and plenty of
               | equipment. They have seemed to _still_ be very lacking in
               | military logistics, which is crucial, but they also haven
               | 't seemed to be throwing everything they have at Ukraine.
               | 
               | I'd strongly recommend you not underestimate Russian
               | ability by assuming Ukraine is the best they could do.
               | That doesn't mean they are going to invade further into
               | Europe, but we're talking about military size and
               | deterrence here.
        
               | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
               | that was a somewhat defensible if somewhat silly position
               | back in 2022, but in 2025 with part of Russia occupied by
               | Ukraine, the Soviet stockpiles emptied, and North Koreans
               | being brought in to fill the gaps, what the hell are you
               | talking about?
        
               | _heimdall wrote:
               | I actually expected them to do better (militarily,
               | obviously worse for Ukraine) in the first few days of the
               | war. They showed the Russian military hadn't learned much
               | from their previous logistics issues, but resources
               | wasn't the problem.
               | 
               | Sounds like we just have different expectations of how
               | stretched the Russians are today, nothing wrong with
               | especially as I'm assuming neither of us have access to
               | the most meaningful field assessment reports.
               | 
               | My view on how the Russians have handled the war, since
               | losing their chance at a quick sweep, has been that they
               | are doing only enough to keep pressure and roughly
               | maintain the front line gains they made. Sure that line
               | has moved, and Ukraine did a pretty impressive job
               | capturing some Russian territory which I don't think was
               | expected by many, but the Russians seem to be balancing a
               | lot more than just a single goal of victory.
               | 
               | I'm curious where you are getting reliable Intel on the
               | Russians current stockpile of munitions, I haven't come
               | across anything meaningful there publicly beyond
               | potentially politically motivated statements and
               | reporting regurgitating those same claims.
               | 
               | Edit: its worth noting there are other reason the North
               | Koreans may have sent troops. If the country is feels the
               | military needs actual combat experience for whatever
               | reason, for example, they could send troops regardless of
               | whether it actually helps the Russian effort.
        
               | jpalawaga wrote:
               | People don't want to be taken care of if they're sick or
               | injured? They'd rather be backfired or dead because of an
               | accident? Unless if they participate in the American
               | employment cabal?
               | 
               | Please. People want to be taken care of. America was
               | built by people escaping famine and people escaping poor
               | living/working conditions.
               | 
               | In other words, it was built by people trying to make a
               | better living for themselves. Living or dying by your
               | success or failure wasn't a desirable feature, it was an
               | incidental side effect of colonizing a new land.
        
             | freehorse wrote:
             | But being the "policeman of the world" has helped with
             | preserving dollar's status as the major currency for
             | international transactions between third countries, and in
             | particular for oil, which in turn makes the dollar a
             | desirable currency, because everyone has and wants to have
             | dollars, and has allowed the federal central bank to print
             | the trillions of dollars it had been printing over and over
             | without it losing its value. Any other country's currency
             | would have been super-inflated if they did the same.
        
             | shafyy wrote:
             | > _Lots of bad decisions but the world also takes for
             | granted the open seas, etc. that come at a great cost to
             | Americans in reduced social services like health insurance
             | and higher education._
             | 
             | Thanks for the laugh
        
               | Dalewyn wrote:
               | The reason the US defence budget is so sky-fucking-high
               | is because we effectively pay for everyone's military,
               | though.
               | 
               | I doubt the other budget line items would see an increase
               | with defence cuts, but we certainly don't need the entire
               | defence budget for just our own sake. _America_ doesn 't
               | need 11 nuclear aircraft carriers or nearly 2500 F-35s,
               | among other excesses.
               | 
               | Also: Attitudes like yours sincerely make me want to see
               | America First pushed more literally to the point of
               | leaving those who don't appreciate us to fend for
               | themselves. Japan, EU, and so on.
               | 
               | Obama already declared we aren't the world police
               | anymore, for better or worse.
        
               | 3688346844 wrote:
               | Any talk that assumes the US defense budget is massive is
               | silly. It's approx 12% of the federal budget and 3.4% of
               | the nation's GDP. It seems large because the US is rich
               | and it seems large compare to the EU because most of the
               | EU, besides Poland, decided it was a lot cheaper to have
               | a token force and leave the real work to the Americans.
        
               | Dalewyn wrote:
               | Using the left-hand list here as a reference: https://en.
               | wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_highest...
               | 
               | It takes _all nine_ of the top 10 countries besides
               | America (#1) to finally match and exceed the American
               | defence budget. Of those nine, only two (Germany and
               | France) are EU members.
               | 
               | In a word, the American defence budget is fucking massive
               | and _we_ certainly don 't need anywhere even remotely
               | most of it for ourselves.
        
               | xienze wrote:
               | You're missing the parent's point. It's large in absolute
               | terms but not as a percentage of GDP (3.5%). And for
               | countries spending less, once again the point is that
               | they'd rather spend less and lean on the US when things
               | really hit the fan (see: European countries not chipping
               | in the requisite 2% of GDP for NATO funding; roughly half
               | of that "OMG so massive" US military spending goes
               | towards NATO).
               | 
               | Edit: yes my bad, I was meaning this comment for another
               | poster in the thread.
        
               | Dalewyn wrote:
               | ...But that's exactly what I'm saying?
               | 
               | Seriously. You just more or less repeated what I've been
               | saying, minus the potentially spiteful sentiment.
               | 
               | From my original comment:
               | 
               | >The reason the US defence budget is so sky-fucking-high
               | is because we effectively pay for everyone's military,
               | though.
        
               | _heimdall wrote:
               | Size of the budget is all in the eye of the beholder
               | though. I don't think its unreasonable for someone to see
               | 12% of the total budget going to defense as massive,
               | especially when the country isn't actively at war.
        
               | shafyy wrote:
               | > _The reason the US defence budget is so sky-fucking-
               | high is because we effectively pay for everyone 's
               | military, though_
               | 
               | Yes, but don't act like that is some kind of selfless
               | act. In the end, it benefits the US more if they do that
               | and have military bases and influence all over the place,
               | than not doing that. If that also protects their allies,
               | even better, since then it can be used to better justify
               | the international meddling (as you're doing now).
        
             | ekianjo wrote:
             | > but there is a large financial cost to always being ready
             | for war. The US has spent 80 years being the "policeman of
             | the world" for good or bad.
             | 
             | The US has never gone through the stage of being "ready for
             | war" and instead went for the "living from one war to the
             | next"
        
             | csomar wrote:
             | > takes for granted the open seas
             | 
             | The open seas is a myth. It is the American seas unless you
             | have a lot of nuclear weapons.
             | 
             | > that come at a great cost to Americans in reduced social
             | services like health insurance and higher education
             | 
             | But also brought lots of business and investment too. On
             | total it's positive, otherwise the US would not do it. *I
             | am not saying the distribution of the incoming wealth was
             | equal.
        
               | markhahn wrote:
               | are you claiming that the US disadvantages non-American
               | traffic? like Chinese vessels are less safe, or not free
               | to travel, or prone to piracy?
               | 
               | I think that's not the case. you can make a case that
               | Russia's "shadow fleet" is being treated with some bias,
               | but then again...
        
           | tonyhart7 wrote:
           | well, EU are enjoying NATO Protection (what I mean nato is
           | only few nato country that really spend money on their
           | military)
           | 
           | some country didn't spend as much even almost downscale its
           | military and you expect the same benefit while didn't want
           | any cost associated with it, how it make sense and fair for
           | everyone???
        
             | 127 wrote:
             | You should update your information.
        
         | gazchop wrote:
         | We should have our own sovereign comparable technology
         | companies in Europe by now.
         | 
         | Fail.
         | 
         | Sold the fundamental industries out to Philips who sold it to
         | the Chinese.
        
         | UltraSane wrote:
         | Europe really dropped the ball on semiconductor manufacturing.
        
           | cma wrote:
           | They are the critical only manufacturer/supplier of EUV
           | machines.
        
           | ulfw wrote:
           | Says the US who can't manufacture anything modern unless they
           | urge a Taiwanese manufacturer using European lithography
           | machines to make chips. Let's please not do this senseless
           | patriotism that so en vogue in the US right now.
        
             | UltraSane wrote:
             | The United States possessed approximately 12% of the
             | world's global chip manufacturing capacity as of 2021. This
             | is a notably lower percentage of global capacity than the
             | US enjoyed just a few decades previously (37% in 1990, for
             | instance), before countries such as Taiwan and China ramped
             | up their semiconductor production capabilities. Despite
             | this decline, the semiconductor industry remains quite
             | lucrative in the US. According to the Semiconductor
             | Industry Association (SIA), semiconductors exports added
             | $62 billion (USD) to the US economy in 2021, more than any
             | product other than refined oil, aircraft, crude oil, and
             | natural gas. Many of these imported chips return to the US
             | in the form of finished consumer electronics.
             | 
             | Although the US held just 12% of the world's total
             | semiconductor manufacturing capacity in 2021, US-based
             | companies held approximately 46.3 percent of the total
             | semiconductor market share. This seeming discrepancy can be
             | explained by both the dollar value of imported US
             | semiconductors, outlined above, and the fact that many US-
             | based companies own and operate semiconductor fabrication
             | plants in other countries, such as Japan. In such cases,
             | the manufacturing capacity is added to that country's
             | capacity rather than the capacity of the US, but the
             | profits typically count as part of the US economy.
        
           | mrtksn wrote:
           | That narrative doesn't make sense, making Taiwanese build and
           | run a factory in USA is not much different than an oil rich
           | Arab country luring a western institution opening a campus in
           | their desert. Its good to have but it doesn't make you a
           | superconductor superpower.
           | 
           | To be fair, the USA does have many of the key companies and
           | technologies that make these ICs possible in first place so
           | it's not exactly like that but in the case of TSMC it kind of
           | is.
        
             | UltraSane wrote:
             | Top 5 Countries That Produce the Most Semiconductors:
             | 1 Taiwan         2 South Korea         3 Japan         4
             | United States         5 China
             | 
             | According to https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-
             | rankings/semicondu... the US has 95 fabs as of 2024 and 12%
             | of Advanced Processes Market Share. The US had 37% in the
             | 1990
             | 
             | Germany has 22
             | 
             | France has 5
             | 
             | Spain has 1
             | 
             | UK has 16
             | 
             | Ireland has 3
             | 
             | Italy has 2
             | 
             | Sweden has 1
             | 
             | Finland has 1
        
             | timewizard wrote:
             | It's simpler than that. The USA holds the majority of the
             | IP.
        
           | PittleyDunkin wrote:
           | What a ridiculous thing to say about the home of ASML.
        
           | whatevaa wrote:
           | Would not have been competitive due to labor costs. Also the
           | chemicals used in manufacturing are quite toxic.
        
             | markhahn wrote:
             | do you really think fabs are labor-intensive, or that they
             | discharge toxic waste?
        
         | mrtksn wrote:
         | IIRC, this isn't happening because Europe doesn't have a large
         | enough industry to purchase chips at the scale required to have
         | such a huge investment.
         | 
         | This one in USA is for political reasons and likely will be
         | feasible only if US manages to preserve the global political
         | order.
         | 
         | Maybe Europe could have had force having a latest node FAB by
         | banning exports of EUV machines and have factories built in
         | Europe through flying Taiwanese engineers to build and operate
         | it and call it huge success like USA is doing now.
         | 
         | I don't know if its worth the cost though. Sure it is good to
         | have it bu in USA's case they even haven't built the industry
         | around it, they will produce the chips in USA, call it "Made in
         | America", collect the political points and ship the chips to
         | the other side of the planet for further processing.
         | 
         | Is it really that big of a deal to have European machines being
         | operated by the Taiwanese in the USA to print chips that need a
         | visit to China to become useful? If the global world order
         | collapses, will the 330M Americans be able to sustain the FAB?
         | If it doesn't collapse, will that be still a good investment
         | considering that Taiwanese have the good stuff for themselves
         | and integrated into the full chain without flying parts across
         | the world?
        
           | earnestinger wrote:
           | Well they made the fiirst step. They have the fab, other
           | parts of industry may emerge with time
        
       | alecco wrote:
       | Previous discussion (16 hours ago)
       | 
       | Apple will soon receive 'made in America' chips from TSMC's
       | Arizona fab (tomshardware.com)
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42699977
        
         | cyanydeez wrote:
         | The good thing about apple prices is they could easily not
         | change any of their prices and just swallow the loss in profit.
         | 
         | But doubtful, it'll definitely be a premium made-inthe-usa
         | labeling for government & school use.
         | 
         | Just grift grift grift, then graft graft graft.
        
           | boringg wrote:
           | They could do that -- then equity would correct investors
           | would be like wait what. Exec and employee comp would
           | decrease. Pressure to deliver consistent returns is real
           | assuming its a material cost difference.
        
         | giancarlostoro wrote:
         | Does this mean that you will see entirely made in the USA Macs?
        
           | swarnie wrote:
           | Depends, Do you have 10 year olds who will work for 18c an
           | hour?
           | 
           | Or do you have consumers who will pay for the difference?
        
             | declan_roberts wrote:
             | Unfortunately the USA doesn't have religious prisoners who
             | can be coerced into a factory as slave labor.
        
               | nemomarx wrote:
               | we do have a lot of prisoners though, and they do various
               | factory kinda jobs. probably not high skill ones though?
        
               | 0_____0 wrote:
               | It depends, there are definitely things like carpentry
               | and other manufacturing that prisoners do that I wouldn't
               | call 'unskilled' by any stretch. One big reason to pay
               | prisoners appropriately is that otherwise they affect the
               | labor rate for trades that overlap with how prison labor
               | is currently utilized.
        
               | mschuster91 wrote:
               | > One big reason to pay prisoners appropriately is that
               | otherwise they affect the labor rate for trades that
               | overlap with how prison labor is currently utilized.
               | 
               | Ask tradespeople how much they like competition from
               | prisons or, in Germany, subsidised workplaces for the
               | disabled.
        
               | swarnie wrote:
               | You might be on to something though!
               | 
               | If you dont mind dropping the religious aspect i think
               | you already have the rest via the Prison-Industries Act;
               | as cheap as an Asian child but with the strength and
               | intelligence of the US adult prison population.
               | 
               | Hold on im going to write this down.
        
               | giancarlostoro wrote:
               | What's more interesting is that if you do it correctly,
               | someone could leave jail / prison with interesting niche
               | skills you could technically hire for, assuming they
               | prove they are reformed.
        
               | soseng wrote:
               | It seems that Arizona is #3 for the total number of for-
               | profit prisoners. There may be untapped potential for
               | slave labor and finding creative ways to imprison
               | Americans here.
               | 
               | Stat: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1356957/number-
               | prisoners....
        
               | giancarlostoro wrote:
               | Not sure the religious remarks intention, but there's
               | jails / prisons where prisoners do labor in exchange for
               | very low compensation. Considering you get billed for
               | being jailed, I would personally prefer working than to
               | mount up debt I have no way of managing.
        
               | morgango wrote:
               | I believe that is a reference to the treatment of Uyghurs
               | in China.
        
               | foobarian wrote:
               | Wait what you get billed for jailtime???
        
               | deaddodo wrote:
               | In very limited situations, in general (there are 50
               | states, I don't know the nuances of each).
               | 
               | Usually only in pre-sentencing stays such as the drunk
               | tank, pre-arraignment holding, etc. If you're sentenced,
               | you aren't charged for _that_ time. Additionally, it 's
               | usually waived during sentencing (if it goes that far) as
               | a part of your Credit-Time-Served conversion.
        
               | deaddodo wrote:
               | I'm a huge proponent of incarceration reform, especially
               | in regards to making the system more rehabilitative
               | versus retributive. But it does no one any good spreading
               | FUD.
               | 
               | > there's jails / prisons where prisoners do labor in
               | exchange for very low compensation
               | 
               | Sure, but the work isn't allowed to be for private
               | entities. They're doing government-related busywork in
               | 99% of cases (pressing license plates, printing/cutting
               | papers for the court, working on machinery for the
               | police/courts, working the kitchen, etc.)
               | 
               | More importantly, they're not just paid monetarily but
               | receive reduced sentences for the work.
               | 
               | > Considering you get billed for being jailed, I would
               | personally prefer working than to mount up debt I have no
               | way of managing.
               | 
               | You're conflating two separate systems. _Prisons_ are
               | where you go for long stints and generally worry about
               | Good Time /Work Time. You _can 't_ be charged a daily
               | fine for prison time.
               | 
               |  _Jails_ are intended for short stays (the drunk tank,
               | transport to court arraignment, etc) and _can_ have daily
               | fines attached, in most states. In cases where county
               | jails are used post sentencing for short-moderate stays,
               | daily fines are generally far more limited /disallowed.
        
               | rbolla wrote:
               | There's a program where prisoners are used as adhoc
               | firefighters in CA.
        
               | lovich wrote:
               | 13th amendment buddy. Slavery was never fully outlawed in
               | the US
        
             | giancarlostoro wrote:
             | People already pay a premium on Macs to be honest. Every
             | hard drive upgrade is ridiculously overpriced.
             | 
             | "Minecraft proves that the children yearn for the mines"
        
               | Clamchop wrote:
               | Way less than they used to. The Mac "premium" has been
               | declining for decades.
               | 
               | Stands to follow that many of their new customers are
               | price-sensitive.
        
               | mschuster91 wrote:
               | > The Mac "premium" has been declining for decades.
               | 
               | Ever tried to configure storage on anything Apple? The
               | markup is _ridiculous_ , but on the other side, it blows
               | a lot of the competition out of the water.
        
               | dangus wrote:
               | This is a dumb tangent that's been beaten to death, but
               | yes Apple base model systems to tend to be somewhat
               | untouchable in value around when they're released. Buying
               | something anywhere close to the form factor of a Mac mini
               | with the same performance is nearly impossible.
               | 
               | We also shouldn't beat this horse to death because it's
               | not hard to plug in a USB/Thunderbolt SSD and there's
               | essentially no performance penalty.
               | 
               | Or if you have a MacBook Pro you can get one of these:
               | https://9to5mac.com/2022/05/20/macbook-pro-flush-sd-card-
               | tra...
               | 
               | Not the fastest thing in the world but it gets the job
               | done.
        
             | jsmcgd wrote:
             | Humanoid robot workers are going to have a massive impact
             | on industries like this. 'cheap labor' will no longer be
             | isolated to certain regions.
        
             | randomopining wrote:
             | Marginal cost added probably isn't that much. How many
             | manhours does a mac take to build?
        
             | dangus wrote:
             | Got any more of that hyperbole? Or maybe outdated
             | xenophobia?
             | 
             | The average manufacturing salary in China is around $13,000
             | a year, in a country where cost of living is 50% lower than
             | the US and rent is 75% lower.
             | 
             | China is actually a place with relatively high
             | manufacturing labor costs these days, but it's a production
             | center for a lot of industries and holds a lot of the
             | ecosystems and institutional knowledge (not unlike all the
             | automotive parts suppliers in the American Midwest).
        
               | bfrog wrote:
               | https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-knowingly-used-
               | child-l...
               | 
               | And yet...
        
             | umanwizard wrote:
             | None of the people assembling Apple products in China are
             | 10-year-olds making $0.18 an hour.
        
               | bfrog wrote:
               | https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-knowingly-used-
               | child-l...
        
           | zitterbewegung wrote:
           | The closest you can get is the Mac Pro line starting with the
           | Trashcan Mac Pro.
           | 
           | https://www.cnet.com/tech/computing/after-federal-break-
           | appl...
        
       | dtquad wrote:
       | So many people wanted this to fail.
        
         | UltraSane wrote:
         | Why?
        
           | YetAnotherNick wrote:
           | Many commenters on HN have this weird idea that if Taiwan is
           | slightly ahead of competition, US would defend Taiwan against
           | a country with nukes. Or that TSMC superiority is Taiwan's
           | national security issue.
        
             | UltraSane wrote:
             | The US would probably defend Taiwan if the CCP invaded it.
             | I don't think we would ever use nukes.
        
               | ekianjo wrote:
               | Defend with what exactly?
        
               | UltraSane wrote:
               | Taiwan from the invading CCP military.
        
               | YetAnotherNick wrote:
               | You think if say US bombs all the CCP's planes, CCP would
               | sit silently and accept defeat? Same thing happened with
               | Ukraine. NATO couldn't escalate the war at any cost, so
               | they can just play safe and only do things that don't
               | risk escalation.
        
               | varjag wrote:
               | If the Russia case suggests anything it's that yes,
               | they'll sit silently and absorb the losses behind all the
               | nuclear bravado.
        
               | _heimdall wrote:
               | I'm not sure I would consider Russia having sat silent
               | though. They've continued the war for nearly 2 years now
               | (or 10 if you go back to 2014) and have worked with
               | allies to have foreign troops fighting on Ukrainian soil.
        
               | varjag wrote:
               | The full scale invasion is entering its fourth year in
               | fact. But I was addressing the nuclear war fears
               | expressed above. Experience show you can hit anything in
               | Russia (including the Kremlin) without nuclear
               | retaliation.
        
               | _heimdall wrote:
               | Yep, it takes me about a month to get the new year in my
               | head apparently, I did the quick math based on 2024.
               | 
               | Anyone expecting nuclear retaliation for the strikes that
               | have been made inside Russian territory has no grasp on
               | what it really means for a country to use a nuke, or has
               | no confidence in a nuclear power understanding the basic
               | game theory of what would come next. Russia would never
               | use a nuke when a small number of missiles or drones made
               | it past their air defence and cause minor damage on
               | Russian soil.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | The NATO strategy in Ukraine hasn't been great _for_
               | Ukraine, but the old cold warriors of the 1980s would be
               | pissing their pants to find how well it worked _against_
               | the Russians.
               | 
               | Wiping out significant portions of their army, navy, and
               | air force for a fraction of a single year's budget and
               | not a single American death?
        
               | suraci wrote:
               | Love it! Kill Russians! Ukrain ruins and dead bodies!
               | Expensive energy price! NOT A SINGLE AMERICAN DEATH!
               | 
               | Bravo!
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | From a geopolitical standpoint, for the US specifically,
               | yes. It's probably the most cost-effective (in money and
               | lives) military spending the US has done since WWII.
               | 
               | From a human standpoint, I wish they'd given the
               | Ukranians ATACMS and HIMARS and F-16s on week two, when
               | it was abundantly clear they had the will to fight. The
               | dribbling out of slowly expanding limits has been painful
               | to watch.
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | Nuclear weapons don't win wars though. Once you launch,
               | you're dead. The retaliation will guarantee your own
               | destruction.
               | 
               | The Cold War led to the arms build up it did because of
               | exactly this paradox: on close inspection, it seemed
               | unlikely the US would lose the Eastern seaboard cities
               | just to protect Berlin, for example.
        
               | nwatson wrote:
               | Taiwan would strike Three Gorges Dam and kill millions.
               | CCP should focus on Siberia.
        
               | api wrote:
               | Honestly, if China wants to just go take that Eastern
               | half of Russia they are welcome. Nobody would stop them
               | and much of the world would cheer.
               | 
               | I've wondered if China encouraged Russia to invade
               | Ukraine to weaken them so they can become a Chinese
               | vassal state to supply raw materials.
        
               | knowitnone wrote:
               | the West can take the other half
        
               | maxglute wrote:
               | No they wouldn't, TW doesn't have the ordnance or ability
               | to deliver said ordnance to structurally damage a gravity
               | dam, especially one size of three gorges. They're much
               | better off hitting PRC coastal nuclear (something that
               | worries PRC planners), either way, it's suicide by war
               | crime.
        
               | UltraSane wrote:
               | Is it still a war crime AFTER the CCP invades with the
               | goal of completely replacing the Taiwanese government?
        
               | mainecoder wrote:
               | You cannot destroy the Largest Dam ever built with
               | conventional Ballistic Missiles but you can level the dam
               | with a nuclear weapon, in which case why use the nuke on
               | a dam why not use it directly on population centers.
        
               | UltraSane wrote:
               | because destroying the damn would kill a LOT more people.
               | Millions.
        
               | knowitnone wrote:
               | you really think the CCP cares?
        
               | sashank_1509 wrote:
               | Doesn't TSMC building a plant in US, offset the need for
               | US to invade Taiwan. Perhaps Taiwan expects US support
               | out of goodwill, but I think Taiwan overestimates how
               | much goodwill drives US politics. Taiwan might have had a
               | better chance of getting support, if it maintained a
               | monopoly on circuit production.
        
             | sofixa wrote:
             | > Many commenters on HN have this weird idea that if Taiwan
             | is slightly ahead of competition, US would defend Taiwan
             | against a country with nukes. Or that TSMC superiority is
             | Taiwan's national security issue.
             | 
             | Well... TSMC is definitely a component of Taiwan's national
             | security. It's called the "Silicon Shield" for a reason.
             | 
             | And the US definitely has more reasons to go to war, and
             | more importantly, _threaten_ war to prevent one breaking
             | out, over Taiwan if it knows there will be a massive
             | economic impact.
             | 
             | And China definitely knows that if Taiwan is important for
             | the US, it's almost certain the US would defend it.
        
             | jmartin2683 wrote:
             | They want war? Someone else's, at that?
             | 
             | Crazy.
        
               | sghiassy wrote:
               | I think it's the opposite. They want the US to defend
               | Taiwan
        
               | UltraSane wrote:
               | The CCP keeps saying that Taiwan is part of China.
        
             | gadders wrote:
             | Why do you think it's a weird idea? It's a strategic asset
             | as much as oilfields are.
        
               | YetAnotherNick wrote:
               | Because Samsung and Intel would probably close the gap by
               | the time the war is done. They are just 2-4 years behind
               | with the gaps already closing in.
        
           | energy123 wrote:
           | Some people are against industrial policy (like the CHIPS
           | Act) because they don't believe that market failure exists.
           | 
           | Some people are against Biden/Dems.
           | 
           | Some people are clueless about the foreign policy and the
           | geopolitical reality in Asia and take the status quo regional
           | power balance as a given.
        
           | rtkwe wrote:
           | Not on the I want it to fail side but my main question is why
           | we put this water intensive industry in Arizona instead of
           | further east where water is less stressed as a resource?
           | 
           | Seems like it would be way better off being somewhere in the
           | eastern half of the country or at least not in the Southwest.
        
             | TrapLord_Rhodo wrote:
             | water is a non-issue. The main issue in deciding where a
             | factory should go is which state will give you the most to
             | do it.
        
           | wumeow wrote:
           | Many commenters just hate America.
        
         | markhahn wrote:
         | Like who? Rabid globalization fans?
        
       | Aissen wrote:
       | I wished we used the node names, like TSMC N4/N4P/N4X, because
       | nanometers are meaningless.
        
         | stingraycharles wrote:
         | As such I'm going to assume it's the least impressive variant
         | of 4NM.
        
         | arnaudsm wrote:
         | Are transistors per square mm a better metric ?
        
           | robertlagrant wrote:
           | Per square foot please. This is America.
        
             | huijzer wrote:
             | Per square banana please. This is the internet.
        
               | sumtechguy wrote:
               | I thought libraries of congress were the correct way to
               | measure?
        
               | rvnx wrote:
               | 1.31 x 10-8 football fields.
               | 
               | (1 football field = 91.44 meters)
        
               | rad_gruchalski wrote:
               | > (1 football field = 91.44 meters)
               | 
               | By? Which football? The real football, or the football
               | played mostly with hands?
        
             | koakuma-chan wrote:
             | Americans need to stop measuring things in feet :)
        
             | PittleyDunkin wrote:
             | Bruh, you're never gonna be a good trad wife as a man.
             | You're just not that pretty.
        
           | greggsy wrote:
           | I won't be surprised if the US plants started referring to
           | the 4NM nodes in their imperial form (1.575 x 10-7")
        
             | _Algernon_ wrote:
             | Scientific notation would be to logical. Instead they'll
             | make a new tiny unit that subdivides the inch into
             | 1/81975489347.7 of an inch.
        
             | bee_rider wrote:
             | Angstroms aren't imperial, but they are non-SI, so if we
             | want to be petty they'd probably be the way to go.
        
           | Dylan16807 wrote:
           | God yes.
        
         | vonneumannstan wrote:
         | Well in that context TSMC N4P tells you no more information
         | than 4-nm does.
        
           | nsxwolf wrote:
           | No information, but at least it doesn't mislead into thinking
           | there are 4nm transistors, or transistor gates, or some
           | discrete feature of any sort that's that small.
        
       | looneysquash wrote:
       | Nice. Maybe we should have re elected that guy.
        
         | randomNumber7 wrote:
         | Maybe you should have developed a technology to upload his
         | brain.
        
       | icf80 wrote:
       | they are making wafers, those have to be sent to china to make
       | the finals chips... in the case of a war this is not great
        
         | declan_roberts wrote:
         | A step in the right direction but we still have an ocean to
         | cross for our domestic semi industry.
        
         | whimsicalism wrote:
         | to taiwan
        
         | victorbjorklund wrote:
         | Taiwan [?] China
        
         | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
         | Until 2027 - when the packaging facilities are complete in
         | Peoria.
         | 
         | Rome wasn't built in a day.
        
       | losvedir wrote:
       | It's interesting to me that this is in Phoenix. Does that mean
       | good things for the city? I thought they were in a desert and
       | running out of water, and not well positioned for climate change.
       | On the other hand, maybe with more solar panels, electricity and
       | manufacturing will be cheaper there in the future?
        
         | imzadi wrote:
         | I live here and we are definitely looking toward impending
         | water shortages, and no one care at all. Nestle is in the
         | process of building a 200 acre coffee creamer factory. The
         | major flower delivery services grow their flowers here. We have
         | tons of cotton and alfalfa fields. There are 100s of golf
         | courses and in the wealthier areas everyone has a lush green
         | lawn.
        
           | 0_____0 wrote:
           | Sounds like a resource that isn't appropriately priced
        
             | amelius wrote:
             | priced -> rationed
        
               | mrsilencedogood wrote:
               | in capitalism, prices are literally how rationing
               | happens. the theory is that it distributes the resources
               | to those who can make them most productive. here,
               | theoretically the water will be used more productively by
               | chipmakers than by farmers, so the chipmakers will be
               | able to out-bid the farmers and the water will be
               | allocated to them. this is the "invisible hand" of the
               | free market.
        
               | loeg wrote:
               | Also worth pointing out that residential water uses like
               | bathing/washing water and especially drinking water will
               | easily outbid alfalfa farmers.
        
               | amelius wrote:
               | No, rationing is the complete opposite and ensures that
               | not just rich people can have access to a resource.
               | 
               | This is basically why the word "rationing" exists in the
               | first place.
               | 
               | What good is being "productive" (whatever your definition
               | of it) if poor people die from lack of access to water
               | because chips need to exist.
        
               | mantas wrote:
               | What's the point of rationing water to monoculture
               | alfalfa fields? Looks like chips factory in that area
               | makes much more sense.
        
               | kragen wrote:
               | We aren't talking about drinking-water quantities of
               | water here but about irrigation quantities. Poor people
               | in Arizona are not in danger of dying from thirst. Think
               | _Milagro Beanfield War_ , not _Dune_. Poor people in
               | Phoenix get their water from the water utility, which
               | gives you 3740+ gallons of potable water per month for
               | US$4.64: https://www.phoenix.gov/waterservicessite/Docume
               | nts/Rates_Ef...
               | 
               | That works out to 0.032C/ per liter. A quarter (25C/)
               | will buy you 760 liters of water, enough to survive for
               | three months. That's about 1000x lower than a price at
               | which even Phoenix's homeless might start dying of thirst
               | due to the cost of water. (Homeless people don't pay the
               | water utility, but they get water from people who do.)
               | 
               | Poor people in the country get their water from wells,
               | which cost money to drill but basically nothing to pump
               | more water from.
               | 
               | Rationing might be a reasonable thing to do to keep the
               | aquifer from being depleted, but it would be likely to
               | hit poor people much harder than rich people, because
               | poor people don't have the political influence to prevent
               | the enactment of regulations that would hurt them badly,
               | such as a requirement for an environmental review before
               | drilling a new drinking-water well.
               | 
               | Rationing _could_ cause poor people to die from lack of
               | access to water. Markets won 't, unless you're talking
               | about something like a Mars colony.
        
               | amelius wrote:
               | Well if you put it like that then I'm starting to wonder
               | what shortage we are talking about in the first place.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | A bunch of entities have perpetual promises for specific
               | amounts of water, and sometimes the promises are too big
               | and can't be fulfilled, or a city needs some water and
               | can't get it allocated, or stuff like that. So,
               | shortages.
               | 
               | Add in some market mechanics and that problem disappears.
               | The only entities left without water are the ones
               | unwilling to pay a small fraction of a cent.
        
         | derektank wrote:
         | Phoenix the city is limited by its existing water rights but
         | the geographical area isn't really that constrained; water
         | rights are just held by private parties, particulaly farmers.
         | ~70% of all water used in the state is used in agriculture.
         | Industrial and residential consumers simply have to purchase
         | those rights if they want to continue to expand in the area and
         | chip making is a high value add industry.
        
           | azemetre wrote:
           | Is there any historical reason why farming is a big industry
           | in a state associated with deserts? Did manufacturing never
           | take root there until after WW2 when air conditioning became
           | more affordable?
        
             | kragen wrote:
             | Farming isn't an industry. It's just how you have a
             | civilization when population density is higher than a
             | hunter-gatherer lifestyle can support. People have been
             | farming in Arizona for several thousand years.
        
               | hosh wrote:
               | I don't know why this was down voted. This is
               | historically true.
               | 
               | The modern canal that runs through Phoenix is built on
               | top of ruins of a much older canal built by indigenous
               | people for farming.
        
               | stackghost wrote:
               | >Farming isn't an industry.
               | 
               | It both is and isn't. Have you seen PETA footage from
               | inside factory farms? It's hellish in that special way
               | only the industrial revolution could produce.
        
               | kragen wrote:
               | We're talking about irrigated fields here, not factory
               | farms, which are certainly nightmarish but don't use a
               | major percentage of Arizona's water.
        
               | prova_modena wrote:
               | As of 2019, 72% of Arizona's water supply was used for
               | agriculture.
               | 
               | https://www.arizonawaterfacts.com/water-your-facts
        
               | kragen wrote:
               | Yes, that's the basis of what we're talking about here.
        
               | chrisco255 wrote:
               | Agriculture is an industry. Of course it is. It employs
               | people, it makes use of technology, it is a distinct
               | sector of the economy.
        
               | hosh wrote:
               | Industry refers to a particular way of doing things that
               | involves portable use of power. Instead of relying on
               | natural cycles (wind-, water-driven machinery), it
               | involves the use of engines (steam, gasoline, electrical)
               | to drive tractors, pumps, produce industrial-scale
               | fertilizers, etc. These engines can be constructed where
               | there are lack of natural resources, or made portable,
               | thus decoupling them from locations of natural resources.
               | That decoupling is what allows industrialized systems,
               | including industrial agriculture, to scale.
               | 
               | Agriculture is largely practiced with industrial methods
               | now, but it's been around a lot longer before proto-
               | industrial methods (water and wind mills). For example,
               | Egypt, as a civilization, benefited from the natural
               | flooding and silt of the Nile. It's been the bread basket
               | for empires for several thousand years. They were not
               | using industrial methods two or three thousand years ago.
               | 
               | There are also other forms of agriculture that is not
               | easily recognized by the narrow lens we have today --
               | such as perennial food forests, hidden in the ruins of
               | Amazonian jungles, or the Pacific Northwest, or the
               | forest that used to cover the lands between the
               | Appalachia and the Mississippi river. Those were not
               | organized with the concept of employment, and it is
               | distinctively low-tech.
        
             | epmatsw wrote:
             | It's sunny for a lot of the year. Ex. you can get an extra
             | harvest of alfalfa per year compared to other climates.
             | 
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owieQnPYfT8
        
             | hibikir wrote:
             | I am sure that some people will question some of the
             | historiography there, but Cadillac Desert is a book all
             | about the history of water management of the great plains,
             | from Kansas onwards.
             | 
             | TLDR: America has spent a whole lot of money trying to make
             | land more productive for farming, including land where it
             | probably doesn't make much economic sense once you account
             | for the infrastructure costs.
        
               | azemetre wrote:
               | Thanks for the rec, another comment mentioned water
               | rights and that never came to my mind.
        
             | derektank wrote:
             | Farming isn't really that large of an industry in Arizona
             | today, maybe 2% of GDP tops. But my understanding is that
             | surface water rights were allocated over a hundred years
             | ago and naturally those rights were allocated to the people
             | that wanted them then, i.e. agricultural landowners.
        
             | hosh wrote:
             | Before Phoenix the city was founded, there was a canal
             | built by the indigenous people who live there in the lower
             | Sonoran.
             | 
             | That canal became the basis for Phoenix, and eventually,
             | the big canal that transport water long range through the
             | state.
             | 
             | The other is that, with sufficient water, you can grow year
             | round.
             | 
             | Not that I think industrial ag is good for society.
             | 
             | Phoenix itself is a metro area whose primary economic
             | driver is real estate speculation. Many older citrus
             | orchards has been surrounded, and sometimes bought and
             | redeveloped.
        
             | johnvanommen wrote:
             | > Is there any historical reason why farming is a big
             | industry in a state associated with deserts?
             | 
             | California is a desert too.
        
             | ahoka wrote:
             | I guess the Mexican border has something to do with it?
        
         | hosh wrote:
         | Water in the fabs gets mostly recycled. There's an old
         | slidedeck from Intel's Chandler (Phoenix metro area suburb) fab
         | about it. This includes discharging what isn't recycled to
         | refill ground aquifer.
         | 
         | From what I understand, the area is more seismically stable, so
         | the special building structures and equipment for more
         | seismically active places are not needed.
         | 
         | There is the presence of ASU. The ASU president had been hired
         | a while back to implement a very different kind of university
         | system focused on broadening (not gate keeping) higher
         | education and building up innovation. This includes both
         | improving graduation rates in the traditional tracks and
         | expanding non-traditional educational tracks. I don't know if
         | all those were considered by TSMC; they like hiring engineers
         | straight out of college and training them in their methods.
        
         | kevinpet wrote:
         | There's no problem with residential water use in Phoenix. There
         | are still farms that could be shut down if water is needed.
         | 
         | The biggest problem seems to be parochial NIMBYs. People don't
         | like that TSMC needed to bring in Taiwanese workers to staff up
         | the plant. They are currently posting AI generated renderings
         | of factories with billowing smoke stacks when talking about the
         | proposed Amkor semiconductor packaging plant in Peoria.
        
           | therein wrote:
           | > There are still farms that could be shut down if water is
           | needed.
           | 
           | Wow, that's good, glad you clarified that.
           | 
           | I was worried there weren't any farms that could be shut down
           | if water is needed.
           | 
           | Can you imagine a world where we can't shut down farms to
           | produce 4nm chips?
           | 
           | I am just so glad we can shut down farms to produce chips.
           | 
           | Farms are useless, but chips, we need it for the control
           | grid. I am just glad we are all on the same page.
           | 
           | Who needs food when you have 4nm chips.
        
             | Apes wrote:
             | Hello, sir? I think you need to go to the hospital, because
             | it seems like you had a stroke or something else serious
             | happen to you.
        
             | zaik wrote:
             | 20 dollars? I wanted a peanut!
        
             | bcrosby95 wrote:
             | Lots of the farms exist to provide year around salad. What
             | is more important, year around salad or computer chips?
             | Economically, for Arizona, the answer is pretty clear.
             | 
             | This is also why I laugh when people in wet areas talk crap
             | about my state's water problem. My state's problem is your
             | problem too buddy.
        
               | QuercusMax wrote:
               | Also, eating raw salad veggies (lettuce in particular) is
               | one of the best ways to get foodborne illnesses like E.
               | Coli.
        
             | alphager wrote:
             | The US is a major food exporter with a supply around 125%.
             | Shutting down a few farms in the desert seems worthwhile.
        
               | adamc wrote:
               | Doing anything that uses a lot of water in a desert seems
               | problematic to me. Water is only going to get scarcer in
               | the west as climate change goes on.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | > Water is only going to get scarcer in the west as
               | climate change goes on.
               | 
               | Predictions are all over the place but the average
               | prediction seems to say that at least half the US gets
               | _more_ water.
        
               | adamc wrote:
               | Not in the west, from what I've seen. The state I grew up
               | in, Illinois, is definitely trending toward being more
               | humid.
               | 
               | If you've seen otherwise and have references, I'm
               | interested. I'm thinking about where to live next.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-what-climate-
               | models-te...
               | 
               | https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth103/sites/www.e-educ
               | ati...
               | 
               | These are the ones that showed up first.
               | 
               | Drying in the southwest is more likely than in the
               | northwest, probably. The specifics are all over. But the
               | bigger distinctions tend to be north versus south.
        
             | mywittyname wrote:
             | At least the fabs can recycle the majority of their water.
             | Unlike farms which use more than is needed and are likely
             | producing animal feed for international animals.
             | 
             | I get your point, but not all farms are created equal. Is
             | it really so bad to shut down farms that grow feed for Arab
             | race horses to produce computer chips?
        
               | therein wrote:
               | > I get your point, but not all farms are created equal.
               | Is it really so bad to shut down farms that grow feed for
               | Arab race horses to produce computer chips?
               | 
               | That, I agree. I noticed a sibling comment also mentioned
               | that. If the farms in question are of that kind, it is
               | reasonable. I'd just like to object to the creation of a
               | general sense of sacrificing farms for fabs.
        
               | timewizard wrote:
               | Farms recycle the majority of their water as well. Just
               | instead of it looping inside of a closed process it
               | returns to the broader environment.
        
               | lovich wrote:
               | really stretching the definition of recycle there.
               | Material staying within a closed loop is kind of a
               | requirement for something to be recycled. The farms don't
               | do anything to keep the water available and have to
               | extract more water from other sources
        
               | heavyset_go wrote:
               | Water loss from evaporation and transpiration are
               | inevitable, and run off is a large chunk of it. Nearly
               | half of the water used in farming is lost, and some of
               | that becomes run off that pollutes the environment and
               | whatever bodies of water it reaches.
        
             | mtoner23 wrote:
             | theres not exactly a lack of food in this country
        
             | pstuart wrote:
             | A fair amount of that farm water is to grow alfalfa for the
             | Saudi's dairy industry. So it's not all essential to US
             | food security...
        
             | awongh wrote:
             | Arizona and California have outdated water management laws
             | that basically mean that big agriculture gets free water.
             | 
             | Until recently Saudi Arabia was using these laws to grow
             | alfalfa in the desert.
             | 
             | In California, water intensive crops like almond trees get
             | free water.
             | 
             | https://youtu.be/XusyNT_k-1c
             | 
             | https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/03/climate/arizona-saudi-
             | ara...
        
             | csallen wrote:
             | This is an extremely over-simplified take. It depends on
             | entirely on what the farms are producing, their water
             | efficiency, etc. Nobody would seriously suggest that people
             | go hungry so that we can have more chips, so responding as
             | if that's the actual suggestion is unwarranted.
        
             | gosub100 wrote:
             | > Who needs food when you have 4nm chips.
             | 
             | Who needs logic and reason when you have false dichotomy?
        
           | umanwizard wrote:
           | It's also worth nothing that the TSMC plant is basically as
           | far north as it's possible to be while still counting as part
           | of the (huge) Phoenix metro area. The vast majority of the 5
           | million residents of that metro area are nowhere near the
           | plant and very unlikely to be affected by it in any way.
        
         | chris_va wrote:
         | Both are true.
         | 
         | Looks like the fab requires about 40,000 acre-ft/yr of water.
         | If they really do start running out of water, adding desal of
         | AZ's brackish aquifers would cost the fab about $20m/year. Not
         | really worth it for farming, but completely fine for a fab.
        
           | stackghost wrote:
           | >40,000 acre-ft/yr of water
           | 
           | ... is "acre feet" a common measurement of volume in the USA?
        
             | connicpu wrote:
             | We'll use anything but metric lol. It's about 1,233 cubic
             | meters of water.
        
               | kkg_scorpio wrote:
               | Which is incidentally only 1% off from half an olympic-
               | size swimming pool.
               | 
               | In other words, the fab requires about 20,000 swimming
               | pools of water every year... or equivalently, 1 swimming
               | pool every 27 minutes.
        
               | bialpio wrote:
               | For context, https://www.rubyhome.com/blog/swimming-pool-
               | stats/ estimates that there are ~500k residential pools
               | in Arizona. Note that those will likely be smaller than a
               | half olympic-size swimming pool.
        
             | ranger207 wrote:
             | It is specifically for reservoirs and by extension
             | municipal water supply systems because it's relatively easy
             | to determine the surface area and height of a reservoir
        
             | rad_gruchalski wrote:
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acre-foot
             | 
             | > The acre-foot is a non-SI unit of volume equal to about
             | 1,233 m3 commonly used in the United States in reference to
             | large-scale water resources, such as reservoirs, aqueducts,
             | canals, sewer flow capacity, irrigation water,[1] and river
             | flows.
             | 
             | Seems to be.
        
               | chris_va wrote:
               | It's a surprisingly convenient unit of measurement.
               | Rainfall and irrigation typically are 0-1m per year, so
               | if you have a 10acre farm you need 10acre-m of water to
               | grow... Though, can't mix units, that would be silly :).
        
             | Glyptodon wrote:
             | Yeah, not uncommon at all in most scenarios where water
             | volume is large enough.
        
             | schaefer wrote:
             | Yes, It's from farming. To state the obvious, it's the
             | volume of water you'd have if a foot of rain fell on an
             | acre of field.
             | 
             | So, it's the unit that gets used when discussing
             | irrigation. Or water usage that competes with irrigation.
             | :P
        
               | chrisco255 wrote:
               | Makes sense, since we usually measure rainfall in inches,
               | it's pretty easy to look up weather records for an area
               | to see what the minimum annual rainfall is expected to
               | be.
        
       | insane_dreamer wrote:
       | Don't chip fabs require a great deal of water? Wondering why a
       | place like Arizona, with serious water issues, was selected.
        
         | vondur wrote:
         | According to TSMC: "To achieve our goal of 90% water
         | reclamation, We will build an advanced water treatment facility
         | (Industrial Water Reclamation Plant) at our Phoenix operation
         | with a design goal of achieving "Near Zero Liquid Discharge".
         | This means the fabs will be capable of using nearly every drop
         | of water back into the facility."
        
           | tw04 wrote:
           | While they reclaim 90% of the water, given the immense amount
           | of water they use, it's still an exorbitant amount.
           | 
           | With all 6 fabs online, and water reclamation in place, it's
           | expected to be the equivalent of 160,000 homes:
           | 
           | https://www.phonearena.com/news/tsmc-access-to-water-us-
           | fabs...
           | 
           | Now you can and absolutely should (IMO) make the argument
           | that the fabs are far more important than the agricultural
           | use in the area which is far more wasteful. But someone has
           | to step up and do that and none of the politicians in the
           | area seem to have been willing to make a commonsense decision
           | and say: we're done growing crops in the desert when we've
           | got endless better options.
        
             | insane_dreamer wrote:
             | Why not a place like Washington State or Oregon with
             | abundant water and hydropower
        
               | Clamchop wrote:
               | Seismic activity appears to be at least one problem. The
               | entire West coast of the contiguous US has lots of it.
        
             | adrr wrote:
             | Be easier just for Arizona to stop growing alfalfa. Its
             | popular because they can grow two crops. According to the
             | feds, there is 300,000 acres of alfalfa in Arizona. Cut
             | that you have enough water saved for tens of millions of
             | people. growing water hungry crops in the desert doesn't
             | make sense.
             | 
             | https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Arizona/Publi
             | c...
        
       | kragen wrote:
       | I thought this would never happen. I was wrong.
        
       | spprashant wrote:
       | Can someone explain to me how they can keep the price of the chip
       | production the same in the US compared to Taiwan?
       | 
       | Labour, especially specialized labour, is a lot more expensive in
       | the US.
        
         | ajb257 wrote:
         | It didn't say that it was the same price? Customers want them
         | produced in the US, so will probs pay extra for it. Especially
         | given that politically it's a good look for them
         | 
         | Also, the US govt has put in a lot of subsidies
        
         | zzzeek wrote:
         | this likely helps:
         | 
         | > Congress created a $52.7 billion semiconductor manufacturing
         | and research subsidy program in 2022. Commerce convinced all
         | five leading edge semiconductor firms to locate fabs in the
         | United States as part of the program.
         | 
         | > The TSMC award from Commerce also includes up to $5 billion
         | in low-cost government loans.
         | 
         | This is a big deal for the US Gov because chip manufacturing is
         | ground zero for "staying competitive" against global
         | competition, e.g. China, who is eating the US' lunch in most
         | areas
        
         | dangus wrote:
         | At this point it's not really a lot more expensive especially
         | when factories are so heavily automated.
         | 
         | The US has had semiconductor fabs for many years that are still
         | operating. It just so happens that TSMC has the best process,
         | but I don't think that has anything to do with labor costs.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2025-01-15 23:01 UTC)