[HN Gopher] What Will Happen in 2025
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What Will Happen in 2025
Author : jger15
Score : 6 points
Date : 2025-01-01 17:01 UTC (6 hours ago)
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| rmason wrote:
| I think a few of those predictions are a bit of a reach for 2025.
| A few I doubt will ever happen.
|
| What they're doing with ESA in Arizona sounds interesting. If the
| school is failing the student why shouldn't they have the option
| of going someplace else?
| neom wrote:
| 1/ Apple and Google will leverage their existing market power to
| surpass OpenAI/ChatGPT in consumer AI prompts by the end of 2025.
|
| - Could be, for a suite of new features LLMs are a good
| primitive, most people actually don't need super human
| intelligence, the non-tech people I know have always defaulted to
| the lowest common denominator (cheap or easy). 80% agree.
|
| 2/ Waymo will surpass Uber in rides taken in San Franciso and Los
| Angeles by the end of 2025.
|
| - I started a whole startup that was somewhat predicated on self
| driving cars becoming normal by 2025, I could write a book on why
| I agree with this one, so we'll see what happens, my only
| modifier would be maybe not waymo but another company? Funnily
| enough Fred passed on my startup with something very similar to:
| "this VC doesn't like to lose money", hehe. :)
|
| 3/ Direct bank to bank payments will surpass credit card
| interchange payments in a few categories in the US in 2025.
|
| - Europe, Asia and Canada have long enjoyed this for many
| categories, FedNow is on the rise, much like credit card fees. A
| bit cheap not to name the categories, but if he means things like
| subscriptions where usually credit card, I'd be surprised.
|
| 4/ A decentralized clinical trial attracts millions of
| participants and produces a favorable outcome and Trump's FDA not
| only approves the drug but celebrates the approach.
|
| - If apple worked with the FDA, maybe. 60%. DCTs are on the rise.
|
| 5/ A housekeeper robot named Judy is launched by Dyson and it
| becomes a massive success, selling millions of units.
|
| - 0% on the name, 40% on the business, 70% on the overall idea.
| Millions of units by the end of next year, unlikely because the
| supply chains won't scale quickly enough (unless they are very
| far along) but I doubt they would ramp up a new category without
| teasing it.
|
| 6/ NFT Art, left for dead at the end of 2024, makes a remarkable
| comeback and the MOMA purchases The 6529 Museum Of Art for an
| undisclosed sum.
|
| - Hmmm, I was on the team that build deviantart back in the day,
| I think an NFT is fine as a certificate of authenticity
| replacement, I agree they will make a comeback, I would be very
| surprised in MOMA buys that unless Fred gives MOMA a donation to
| buy that.
|
| 7/ An AI doctor with the personality of Mr Rogers will treat
| millions of patients at zero cost in 2025.
|
| - I think this is already happening to some degree? By some
| measure I'd already check this off so I'm not sure where his line
| for treatment is drawn.
|
| 8/ A bitcoin mining operation will pair with a wind farm in
| Newfoundland and grid scale battery storage to power an AI data
| center showcasing a new model for sustainable infrastructure.
|
| - Oddly specific, so... 100%?
|
| 9/ Arizona's ESA program attracts over 25% of K12 students in the
| state, leading to a number of local school closures.
|
| - 80% - this is just pointing to a tailwind.
|
| 10/ An AI produces an animated feature film that is nominated for
| an Oscar.
|
| - 90% on the first part. 50/50 on how good it is. 0% Oscar.
|
| 11/ An air taxi service launches in New York City offering an
| alternative to the L train commute.
|
| - 0% but nice pipe dream my man. Also L train is commute is what
| life is made for so, 0%x2
|
| 12/ TikTok turns all videos into memecoins that can be traded on
| decentralized exchanges all over the world.
|
| - 0%. Nobody cares.
|
| 13/ The USV Librarian goes rogue, gets access to USV's crypto
| wallet, and starts making seed investments, one of which turns
| into a fund returner.
|
| - 0% and also a parlay into 70% someone else who isn't the
| librarian steals USV's crypto wallet in 2025.
| pkkkzip wrote:
| is this written by a VC? seems quite egoistical with a few common
| stats known already to hedge risks of looking like an idiot
|
| i love how quickly HN ignored this submission. I think the BS
| detection is stronger than ever
| neom wrote:
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Wilson_(financier)
|
| He's a smart, quirky, kind dude, who lives in NYC and is
| extremely well known in VC/startup circles generally. Also iirc
| his Fund1 is the highest performing VC fund of all time.
| kylecazar wrote:
| I think some of these are purposefully vague, but I've been
| following Fred for a while and his predictions are often pretty
| good.
|
| Many will likely 'technically' happen, but probably not in full.
| Which I think is a sign of good predictions.
|
| I.e -- an animated film that _uses_ AI significantly is
| nominated. An AI 'doctor', for some unconventional definition of
| doctor, becomes popular. The air taxis launch and have flights,
| but are exclusive and not widely popular (eVTOL become akin to
| the current helicopter subscriptions to the airports, certainly
| not replacing the L anytime soon).
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