[HN Gopher] Masks, Smoke, and Mirrors: The story of EgyptAir fli...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Masks, Smoke, and Mirrors: The story of EgyptAir flight 804
        
       Author : gdmt
       Score  : 228 points
       Date   : 2024-12-24 19:39 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (admiralcloudberg.medium.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (admiralcloudberg.medium.com)
        
       | soapboxrocket wrote:
       | Reminds me a bit of the UPS Flight 6 that crashed in 2010. Wasn't
       | the cause of the fire, but the fire heated up the co-pilots
       | oxygen system to the point he couldn't wear it and eventually
       | succumbed to smoke hypoxia. Due to smoke in the cabin the pilot
       | couldn't see his flight deck readouts or out the window and
       | eventually crashed into the ground.
        
         | veeti wrote:
         | From the same author:
         | https://admiralcloudberg.medium.com/alone-in-the-inferno-the...
        
         | ddalex wrote:
         | One would have to wonder why an emergency smoke extractor fan
         | isn't default equipment - when pilots oxy is deployed a panel
         | should blow outward and a high flow fan start.
        
       | dmckeon wrote:
       | Tragedy from a Swiss cheese failure - several small
       | holes/failures all line up. The issue of halon extinguishers
       | versus oxygen-powered combustion producing many toxins while
       | failing to extinguish is interesting - good that:
       | 
       | > Halon fire extinguishers are scheduled to be phased out of most
       | commercial aircraft by the end of 2025.
        
         | wkat4242 wrote:
         | That's more because of the ozone layer.
         | 
         | While it's not good to use halon in a semi contained space like
         | an airplane, it is incredibly effective at killing fire. It
         | really sucks the heat out of it. Thus in most cases the fire is
         | killed quickly and not much toxins are produced. This is
         | important too because fire itself produces a lot of lethal
         | toxins too, most people in a fire don't burn to death but get
         | poisoned by the smoke.
         | 
         | So it's a big loss imo. I understand why because it's one of
         | the most potent ozone layer killers. But still.. you're not
         | using the stuff unless you have no other choice. If you're not
         | using it it doesn't end up in the environment.
         | 
         | In this case it didn't work because the cargo bay in question
         | was not fitted with extinguishers if I remember correctly.
        
           | bitwalker wrote:
           | > It really sucks the heat out of it.
           | 
           | One of the problems with halon, and the write-up mentions
           | this, is that it is super effective at starving the fire of
           | oxygen, but has zero effect on the heat of the fuel that was
           | burning. So the fire goes out, but if oxygen is reintroduced
           | before the fuel has a chance to cool sufficiently, it
           | reignites - and now not only are you back where you started,
           | but you have all the toxic byproducts that burning halon
           | produces, which will kill you in a hurry if you breathe them
           | in.
        
             | cyberax wrote:
             | > One of the problems with halon, and the write-up mentions
             | this, is that it is super effective at starving the fire of
             | oxygen
             | 
             | That's not actually quite how it works. But yes, the end
             | result is the same. I'll copy-paste my comment from the
             | Medium:
             | 
             | That's NOT how halon works! It's a common misconception,
             | but it's incorrect. In fact, halon doesn't react with
             | pretty much anything, it's very chemically stable. You can
             | mix halon with pure oxygen and it'll just sit there, doing
             | nothing.
             | 
             | This stability is exactly why it works so well. You need
             | only a few _percent_ of halon by volume to stop the fires,
             | not even close to consuming even a fraction of the 21% of
             | oxygen.
             | 
             | Normal oxygen consists of two atoms bonded together (thus
             | "O2"). And fire is spread by oxygen radicals, lone oxygen
             | atoms that have an unpaired electron, eager to make bonds.
             | In a fire, an oxygen radical reacts with a molecule of
             | fuel, and this reaction produces enough energy to create at
             | least one more oxygen radical, sustaining the chain
             | reaction.
             | 
             | But halon has these chlorine and bromine atoms, they are
             | bound tightly to carbon, but not as tightly as oxygen would
             | be. So oxygen radicals have enough energy to displace them
             | and bind to the central carbon atom. But the resulting
             | energy release is not enough to create _more_ radicals, so
             | the chain reaction is stopped.
             | 
             | Moreover, the chlorine radical can then snap back onto
             | another carbon atom (from the fuel source), releasing a bit
             | of energy, but not enough to create a new oxygen radical.
             | And the cycle can repeat again.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | > That's not actually quite how it works.
               | 
               | What you wrote is not contradicting the parent, who just
               | said that it was "super effective at starving the fire of
               | oxygen". You just described the mechanism. You also
               | contradict yourself by first saying that halon is inert,
               | and then that it neutralises oxide ions by swapping
               | halogens, which is the opposite of non-reactive. The
               | effect of that is that it immobilises reactive oxygen
               | before it oxidises the fuel. And it indeed does nothing
               | to decrease the temperature, which does mean that the
               | fire restarts as soon as oxygen is re-introduced. I know
               | you're not wrong, but the delivery could be improved.
               | 
               | Anyway, you can elaborate and provide information without
               | disagreeing with the comment you're replying to. It's
               | fine, and often informative.
        
               | wkat4242 wrote:
               | As far as I understood it reduces temperature also
               | because it boils so easily (very low boiling point). That
               | pulls energy from the fuel. As well as capturing oxygen.
               | 
               | This is why it was used as a refrigerant also.
               | 
               | Also if the fuel is below the auto ignition temperature
               | but above flashpoint it would need another spark to re-
               | ignite.
        
               | cyberax wrote:
               | Typically, "starving of oxygen" means that there's not
               | enough oxygen around anymore. That's how CO2
               | extinguishers work, for example. They literally remove
               | enough of the oxygen to make the combustion stop.
               | 
               | Halon does NOT remove the oxygen, there's always plenty
               | of it available. Instead, it stops the chain reaction.
               | 
               | > You also contradict yourself by first saying that halon
               | is inert, and then that it neutralises oxide ions by
               | swapping halogens, which is the opposite of non-reactive.
               | 
               | As I said, you can mix halon and oxygen, and they won't
               | react (even if you try to ignite them). Halon is very
               | unreactive, but it's obviously not _totally_ inert like
               | helium.
        
               | userbinator wrote:
               | _As I said, you can mix halon and oxygen, and they won 't
               | react (even if you try to ignite them)._
               | 
               | That makes me wonder if any of the original designers of
               | the oxygen system considered whether a halon-oxygen mix
               | would've been better than pure oxygen.
        
               | cyberax wrote:
               | Not really. Adding oxygen for sure won't help. Also halon
               | is stored in extinguishers as a pressurized liquid, not
               | gas.
        
         | cyberax wrote:
         | This really is a non-issue. If you're at the point where toxins
         | from halon pyrolysis are a problem, then you're likely already
         | dead from other factors (heat, smoke, etc.).
         | 
         | Halon can works even at concentrations of just 2-5% by volume.
         | This is entirely safe to breathe for humans. There's a video of
         | a person discharging a halon extinguisher in a room, and then
         | proceeding to try to light a cigarette. The matches go out
         | immediately after striking the matchbox and the lighter can't
         | even ignite.
         | 
         | CO2 extinguishers are really worse, they need to displace most
         | of the oxygen to be effective. Unfortunately, humans also need
         | this oxygen.
         | 
         | In addition, CO2 stream can cool the burning material, but it
         | can also spread it (so be careful if you use it on burning
         | liquids).
        
           | jabl wrote:
           | Engine rooms in ships typically have CO2 systems. There's
           | been several fatalities when crew have reentered the space
           | before the CO2 has been ventilated away. Made worse by CO2
           | being heavier than air so it can remain in some crawlspace
           | under the engine frame or such.
        
           | buildsjets wrote:
           | In testing aircraft installations, the FAA requires you to
           | demonstrate 6% concentration of Halon 1301 at 12 FAA chosen
           | locations in a compartment for 0.5 seconds, simultaneously,
           | when the test is run at sea level and standard temperature.
           | This is to allow for the fact that the halon bottles may be
           | cold soaked down to -60F and that the system needs to be
           | effective at density altitudes down to -1000 feet.
        
         | wk_end wrote:
         | In commercial aviation the vast majority of tragedies _are_
         | Swiss cheese failures, at this point. The system has worked
         | very hard to optimize out the possibility of any one individual
         | failure leading to catastrophe. But the explosion of potential
         | combinations - along with the extremely low odds of them ever
         | occurring - makes preparing for one of them much less feasible.
        
           | FridayoLeary wrote:
           | I'm surprised that a catastrophic runaway oxygen leak is
           | possible on an aircraft in todays day and age. Aircraft
           | design is dominated by strict safety regimes that take into
           | account even far fetched scenarios. Putting one valve in the
           | rubber hose sounds sub optimal. Gas station pumps, for
           | example have a valve that closes if the hose gets torn away.
           | (which does happen when people forget about the pump and
           | drive off). From the article it sounds like a button closes
           | the oxygen tank but a pilot sitting next to a flamethrower
           | might not remember to press it. One obvious solution is that
           | the oxygen tank should be activated only in an emergency
           | instead of being on by default during the flight but i assume
           | the current procedure exists for a reason.
        
             | masklinn wrote:
             | The rarity of such events (as outlined by TFA) is probably
             | a major reason, even more so as they seem to _generally_ be
             | caused more by maintenance and from places with less than
             | stellar incident reporting.
             | 
             | While there is some amount of proactivity in aircraft
             | safety I'm not sure there are people with enough free time
             | that they can make up failure modes or trawl through every
             | minor incident report until (again as in the case of TFA)
             | prompted by an actual failure, unless one of the minor
             | incidents is itself proactively raised as a major risk
             | avoided by blind luck.
        
             | wat10000 wrote:
             | The article says that a risk analysis was done for the
             | system and the risk was found to be "extremely improbable,"
             | meaning between 1 in 100 million to 1 in a billion flight
             | hours.
             | 
             | This flight may have been extremely unlucky, or the risk
             | analysis may have been wrong. This is why the behavior of
             | the Egyptian authorities is so frustrating; the purpose of
             | the accident investigation is to see if there are problems
             | that should be addressed.
        
               | CamperBob2 wrote:
               | Also, even if the risk analysis was right, it didn't
               | justify an "extremely improbable" conclusion. If the
               | global airline industry operates a total of about 50
               | million flights per year, and the average duration is
               | about 2 hours, then we stand a good chance of seeing an
               | accident like this every few years.
        
               | wat10000 wrote:
               | Reading up a little on the regulations, the FAA defines
               | "extremely improbable" as less than one in a billion per
               | hour, with the goal that a given type of airplane should
               | be unlikely to ever experience a catastrophic failure
               | during its service life.
               | 
               | Of course, there's more than one type of airplane in the
               | world, so you do have to wonder if that standard is
               | adequate. I didn't see how they quantify "unlikely," but
               | if it's, say, 1 in 10 then the wide range of aircraft
               | types means many of them will experience a catastrophic
               | failure.
               | 
               | I'd expect this stuff to be gradually tightened. The
               | current standard would have been ridiculous and
               | unobtainable some decades ago. As technology and
               | experience advances, there should be room to improve it
               | further.
        
         | buildsjets wrote:
         | No, they are not. Source: me. Also here's the applicable EU
         | regulation. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-
         | content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A... Only handheld portable
         | extinguishers are required to be phased out in 2025, and only
         | in locations that are regulated by EASA. The FAA does not give
         | a rip, and neither to the many regulatory bodies around he
         | world who defer tho the FAA. I don't know what the CAAC is
         | doing. As far as the FAA concerned, compliance with the
         | Montreal Treaty is the Department of State's problem. Btw,
         | since there is only one company that has certified a non-halon
         | (2-BTP) handheld, they have jacked the retail/list price up to
         | $2630 compared to an equivalent sized Halon 1211 handheld for
         | $475.
         | 
         | Did you know that in the wrong circumstance a 2-BTP
         | extinguisher will feed a fire rather than extinguish it? It's a
         | phenomenon called subinerting. One manufacturer blew up an FAA
         | lab pretty badly while testing 2-BTP. Here's a report on the
         | earth-shattering kaboom. I only got to see he wreckage a few
         | weeks later. https://www.nist.gov/publications/chemical-
         | kinetic-mechanism...
         | 
         | Permanently installed Halon firex systems in commercial
         | aircraft will not be phased out until 2040. I have been
         | working, as a part of larger team, to certify a non-halon based
         | firex in cargo and engine compartments for many many years now.
         | It's been slow going. All commercial aircraft from all
         | manufacturers still use Halon for their permanently installed
         | firex and will continue to do so for the near future. We have
         | put non-halon systems into some military aircraft that go thru
         | a commercial certification, for example the KC46 tanker, but
         | there are some good reasons it would not be the best choice for
         | an actual commercial aircraft. https://www.af.mil/News/Article-
         | Display/Article/740629/kc-46...
         | 
         | If anyone actually gave a rip about ozone depletion, they would
         | ground the F-16 fighter. The F-16 inerts it's fuel tank ullage
         | space with Halon. Every F-16 flight is a direct injection of
         | pure Halon straight into the stratosphere. Mainline that stuff,
         | feels so good. https://arc.aiaa.org/doi/abs/10.2514/6.1981-1638
        
       | inglor_cz wrote:
       | On a somewhat related note, Egyptian science tends to suffer from
       | a massive scientific misconduct (fraud) problem - see for example
       | this paper by Egyptian authors, which covers the medical field:
       | 
       | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.02.20.23286195v...
       | 
       | Maybe the attitude towards "truth vs. face" is similar in
       | Egyptian governmental institutions.
       | 
       | Egypt in general is a low-trust society, scoring lower than India
       | or Russia, though not much lower than usual in Africa.
       | 
       | https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/iab8r7/social_trus...
       | 
       | This indicates that lived experience of the Egyptians themselves,
       | when it comes to trusting others, is somewhat bad.
        
         | aprilthird2021 wrote:
         | Of course it is, it's a brutal military dictatorship where the
         | last (and only) democratically elected leader was overthrown by
         | the army and died in prison.
         | 
         | Those kinds of systems, where people are convinced their
         | opinions and convictions don't matter, lead to problems like
         | this
        
           | dash2 wrote:
           | This might get the causality backward. Most high trust
           | societies were high trust before, not after, they became
           | democracies.
        
             | aprilthird2021 wrote:
             | I think most democracies were founded as such and so the
             | society and democracy were born at the same time
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | Nope, democracies are usually much younger than the
               | underlying societies.
               | 
               | For example, the vast majority of Europe is now
               | democratic. 200 years ago, most of Europe was autocratic
               | and even exceptions like the UK were at most very
               | incomplete democracies with limited suffrage.
               | 
               | But the constituent nations and ethnicities are very much
               | the same, even though political boundaries have shifted;
               | an English, Polish or Spanish person can read 200 year
               | old texts without much effort. There wasn't any seismic
               | shift comparable to the collapse of the Roman world and
               | the subsequent rearrangement of nations and ethnicities
               | across the continent. Krakow is still Polish, Budapest is
               | still Hungarian and Milan is still Italian.
               | 
               | Only in a few places like Breslau/Wroclaw there was a
               | meaningful population shift.
        
               | aprilthird2021 wrote:
               | But most democratic countries in the world are not in
               | Europe. Most of them were born as democracies: India,
               | Tanzania, Kenya, Nigeria, USA, etc.
        
         | eadmund wrote:
         | > Maybe the attitude towards "truth vs. face" is similar in
         | Egyptian governmental institutions.
         | 
         | My initial instinct when reading the prologue was to think
         | about that, and be proud that we're not like that. But then I
         | reflected a bit more, and wondered. When folks say something we
         | dislike, do we consider that it may be true, or do we shut down
         | the conversation?
         | 
         | I'm reminded of the response to any number of public
         | controversies in my lifetime, when unpopular arguments did not
         | result in compelling counter-arguments but instead in shout-
         | downs.
        
           | inglor_cz wrote:
           | This is a good observation, but as usual, everything comes in
           | degrees of severity.
           | 
           | To fabricate an implausible report about a plane crash which
           | took more than 60 lives is a very deep institutional problem,
           | let us hope that this won't become the planetary norm.
        
             | aprilthird2021 wrote:
             | It's actually a shallow institutional problem. If the
             | dictator wants the report to say one thing, it must, the
             | end.
        
       | ngneer wrote:
       | A rather well-written piece. My takeaway is that the French
       | investigators are pros and the Egyptians are hacks. And that
       | safety culture matters. One must not bend the facts to draw a
       | desired conclusion. One must review the data without bias, or
       | else recuse oneself.
        
         | eddythompson80 wrote:
         | > My takeaway is that the French investigators are pros and the
         | Egyptians are hacks
         | 
         | Describing them as "hacks" is weird. In most dictatorships, the
         | concern is usually "What does the country's leadership want the
         | official story to be" rather than "What actually happened".
         | Take this quote from the article for example
         | 
         | > "In my opinion, the problem with the report is that it
         | appears to treat the findings of the Triple Committee -- the
         | group appointed by the public prosecutor's office -- as the
         | unquestioned truth, and fails to push back on any of its
         | assertions, even the ones that they disagreed with. Instead,
         | because the Triple Committee concluded that a bomb in the
         | galley was the cause of the crash, the EAAID bent itself into a
         | pretzel trying to make the evidence fit that theory.
         | Unfortunately, we don't know why the Triple Committee and the
         | EAAID chose to die on this hill"
         | 
         | EgyptAir is a government owned enterprise. It's managed by the
         | "Ministry of Civil Aviation" who's head is always some general
         | or commander from the Air Force. If the EAAID investigators
         | were allowed to say that there was a "faulty equipment" then a
         | lot of questions would have had to be answered. A lot of
         | questions that have the possibility of embarrassing people all
         | the way up the chain (especially that as mentioned, that
         | particular oxygen mask was reported faulty from another
         | aircraft and removed for maintenance before, and the crew
         | frequently reported that the pilot oxygen supply always
         | decreases on every flight).
         | 
         | Saying "it was terrorists" is something that no one has to feel
         | embarrassed about. In fact in 2016 the Egyptian government were
         | in the midst of a lot of arrests and suspension of most
         | freedoms to "curb terrorist activities". And such thing plays
         | well into that narrative.
         | 
         | Are you an EAAID investigator who wants to say "it was a faulty
         | oxygen mask"? Ok. How do you fancy you, your brother, cousin,
         | and neighbor spending the next 15-30 years in jail pending
         | investigation on conspiracy against the country?
        
           | ngneer wrote:
           | You make a valid point. I stand corrected. "Hacks" is not an
           | accurate term, and fails to account for the full
           | circumstance. I was merely appalled at how willing EAAID were
           | to jump to conclusions and twist facts towards a convenient
           | narrative. France is a democracy, and that makes for an
           | unfair comparison between the two agencies. I am sure that
           | even the most intellectually honest individual will choose
           | their own safety if faced with the reality of imprisonment.
        
             | brnt wrote:
             | Such are the mechanics of fascist dictatorships.
             | Individuals are in no way empowered to think or act in ways
             | not supporting the Great Leader. You being unsafe is the
             | method of control.
             | 
             | Take care, America.
        
               | llamaimperative wrote:
               | Yeah people dictator-sympathizers seem to think the
               | problem with strongman asshole leaders is that they're
               | meanie heads (something Real Patriots can look past!).
               | But no, it's that they actually yield failure in a
               | society's most basic functions and at every level.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | It often takes a degree of pain unimaginable to people to
               | realize the true consequences of going down this road.
               | Sometimes, that pain is so extreme people can never do
               | it.
               | 
               | See post WW2 Germany, and all the folks who got caught
               | with nazi memorabilia in their attics for decades
               | afterwards.
        
               | mlinhares wrote:
               | Please don't put the blame on dictatorships alone,
               | democratic countries do the same all the time. There's
               | multiple cities in the US where the city officials hid
               | the fact their water was contaminated.
        
             | nico wrote:
             | > France is a democracy
             | 
             | And even there, sometimes people will get treated like
             | terrorists for saying the wrong political thing
             | 
             | Like it's been happening for the last year. Including some
             | protests getting outright made illegal
             | 
             | And as you say, even people that care a lot about the
             | truth, will choose something else to protect themselves or
             | their loved ones
        
           | Ozzie_osman wrote:
           | > In most dictatorships, the concern is usually "What does
           | the country's leadership want the official story to be"
           | rather than "What actually happened".
           | 
           | This also occasionally happens in non-dictatorships, unless
           | you considered George W a dictator when he was deciding to
           | invade Iraq.
        
             | Moru wrote:
             | Whataboutism isn't really the answer here. When the
             | population knows this is the way it works and bends
             | themselves like a pretsel to make their government not kill
             | them, it's not good. You can't compare that to a western
             | country, not even the US is that bad.
        
         | sofixa wrote:
         | It's not the first time Egyptian investigators disregarded
         | reality to keep face:
         | 
         | https://admiralcloudberg.medium.com/the-crash-of-egyptair-fl...
        
         | Dalewyn wrote:
         | >One must not bend the facts to draw a desired conclusion. One
         | must review the data without bias, or else recuse oneself.
         | 
         | There are essentially two ways to solve a mystery:
         | 
         | A) Consider the evidence and draw a conclusion from them.
         | 
         | B) Consider the conclusion and draw the evidences for it.
         | 
         | Neither is _the_ correct methodology, especially when politics,
         | power dynamics, and social justice are involved.
        
           | ngneer wrote:
           | With all due respect, (B) is logically unsound in my mind.
           | You may have meant considering the hypotheses, and then using
           | available data and only available data to rule in or rule out
           | certain scenarios. In my mind, based on decades of studying
           | engineering defects and failures, starting with a conclusion
           | is not a way to solve a mystery at all. Rather, it is only a
           | way to convince oneself of a falsehood. To give an example
           | that is familiar to the HN audience, how many times have you
           | had to debug a bug or problem in a complex system that you
           | initially thought was caused by one thing only to discover it
           | was caused by something completely different?
        
             | Dalewyn wrote:
             | >With all due respect, (B) is logically unsound in my mind.
             | 
             | That's because you're concerned about _finding out_ what
             | happened. Not everyone thinks like that, namely some (many)
             | are concerned about _creating_ what happened.
        
               | ngneer wrote:
               | Very interesting. Thank you for making the distinction
               | explicit and for helping me to understand the other
               | mindset. You are totally right, in that my mindset is
               | closer to a forensics mindset in such instances, trying
               | to get as close as possible to the "truth", so as to
               | avoid future similar defects and improve system
               | reliability. I do agree that some people prefer to
               | manufacture truth. Any advice on how to get along with
               | these?
        
               | Dalewyn wrote:
               | Much like how you can't convince a businessman to
               | understand something when his salary depends on him not
               | understanding it, it's next to impossible to "find out" a
               | mystery if the powers-that-be do not want that and/or
               | want a more desirable-for-them conclusion.
        
               | ngneer wrote:
               | I was afraid you were going to say that ;). Thanks for
               | the sage advice. I think that "safety inspector" would
               | not be a good career choice for people like myself, then.
               | Methinks Boeing and OceanGate had been in the news
               | recently with similar safety attitudes. Oh, well. Live
               | and learn.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | Notably, the type of people who do B are extremely
               | dangerous around anything involving engineering, science,
               | etc - anything where reality actually matters.
               | 
               | Because type A people are what are required to _actually_
               | fix problems, or learn more things.
               | 
               | Type B people exist when those are 'not desirable'. Which
               | should indeed scare you, if you care about actual reality
               | (or actual reality matters) in that domain.
        
               | Moru wrote:
               | Especially when type A people are working in an
               | environment where the leadership with the guns is type B
               | people. Then type A will proactively switch to type B
               | reasoning to stay alive.
        
           | synecdoche wrote:
           | Could someone explain when A) it's not the correct
           | methodology, unless B) is preferable?
           | 
           | B) appears preferable only under duress and then only to the
           | benefit of saving one's own skin temporarily, however long
           | that may be.
        
         | Hilift wrote:
         | Egypt doesn't have an equivalent to the NTSB. There simply
         | isn't enough depth. They established their own agency in 2002,
         | but it is basically a placeholder.
        
         | Ozzie_osman wrote:
         | It's easy to say this sitting in the west, especially since
         | Egypt is run by an authoritarian government. I'll point out
         | though that even sans-authoritarianism, there are plenty of
         | examples of Western "investigators" arriving at politicized and
         | often false conclusions with far worse consequences. The
         | history of the CIA/FBI is chock-full of examples. And you don't
         | even have to go that far back or dig that deep... The whole
         | Iraq WMD debacle.
         | 
         | Anyway, not saying the Egyptian investigators were right in
         | this case (it seems clear that they weren't). Or defending
         | authoritarian governments. Just providing an alternative view
         | point, as someone who lived half his life in Egypt and half in
         | the US.
        
       | mmooss wrote:
       | Does anyone know the author's background? All I see is 'analyzer
       | of plane crashes'.
        
         | buildbot wrote:
         | She is I believe a pilot, and has been doing this for years and
         | years on (originally?) reddit, in great depth and detail. She
         | also has a really fun podcast with two other people called
         | controlled pod into terrain.
        
         | macintux wrote:
         | A little information:
         | https://www.patreon.com/admiral_cloudberg/about
        
         | sofixa wrote:
         | She's one of the best, extremely thorough, and works as a
         | researcher for another very good air crash investigator,
         | Mentour Pilot (YouTube channel).
        
         | kergonath wrote:
         | I am not sure about her formal credentials, but she's doing a
         | very thorough job. I could not find a flaw in her explanations
         | involving my field (materials science broadly, and failure
         | mechanics in particular), which is more than I can say of the
         | vast majority of people writing on STEM subjects. I don't think
         | she has any formal training in the field, but she seems to be
         | talking to the right experts and extracting the right
         | information.
         | 
         | I believe she used to be a pilot.
        
         | efitz wrote:
         | Do you see something in the article that should require
         | credentialing to state?
        
       | blueflow wrote:
       | See https://avherald.com/h?article=4987fb09/0018 for a technical
       | view.
        
       | userbinator wrote:
       | _In all tests, the fire, propelled by the oxygen leak, produced a
       | terrifying "blowtorch" effect, and the flames were literally
       | white-hot._
       | 
       | Sufficient concentrations of oxygen can cause even steel to burn:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_lance
       | 
       | There must be a reason they use pure oxygen, as regular
       | compressed air, also breathable, would not have the same intense
       | reactivity.
        
         | dreamcompiler wrote:
         | > Sufficient concentrations of oxygen can cause even steel to
         | burn
         | 
         | Not just thermal lances; oxy-acetylene cutting torches work by
         | burning through steel, and you can buy one for not much money
         | at almost any hardware store.
        
         | wezdog1 wrote:
         | It's used due to the low partial pressure of oxygen at high
         | altitudes
        
         | tgsovlerkhgsel wrote:
         | If you put a human in an environment with 20% of sea level
         | pressure, and feed them 20% sea level pressure air, they will
         | suffocate.
         | 
         | If you were to somehow feed them 100% sea level pressure air
         | through a perfectly sealed mask, they will be unable to exhale
         | and/or get some kind of fatal side effects (burst lungs or air
         | bubbles making it into the blood stream). So you _have_ to feed
         | the breathing gas at the surrounding pressure.
         | 
         | If, however, you give them 100% oxygen at 20% sea level
         | pressure, they will be able to happily breathe it as if it was
         | regular air with 20% oxygen near sea level, at least until you
         | introduce an ignition source. What matters physiologically is
         | the _partial pressure_ (pressure multiplied by fraction).
         | 
         | (Likewise, if you give someone 100% oxygen at sea level
         | pressure for a short time, they'll be fine. Do the same at more
         | than twice sea level pressure, e.g. while diving, and the
         | oxygen becomes fatally toxic.)
        
           | wat10000 wrote:
           | Incidentally, it is possible to provide the breathing gas at
           | somewhat over the ambient pressure. This can allow survival
           | without cabin pressurization at altitudes above the point
           | where even 100% oxygen wouldn't be sufficient. But the
           | pressures that can be used are well below what you'd need for
           | normal air to be sufficient at a typical airliner cruising
           | altitude.
        
         | masklinn wrote:
         | > There must be a reason they use pure oxygen, as regular
         | compressed air, also breathable, would not have the same
         | intense reactivity.
         | 
         | Pure oxygen at 1/5th standard pressure has the same effect as
         | air at standard pressure, and assuming nitrogen and oxygen
         | compress similarly you can either fit 5 times more in the same
         | canister, or you can have a canister 1/5th the size and weight.
        
       | amelius wrote:
       | With all the high speed trains in Europe, I'm wondering why we
       | don't see more security around them. It seems a much easier
       | target than airplanes.
        
         | shepherdjerred wrote:
         | I'm guessing it's because you can't fly a train into a building
        
           | fragmede wrote:
           | given how long and heavy trains are, and how fast they can
           | go, and the fact that rails aren't straight, sure you can.
           | 
           | https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/south-texas-el-
           | paso/news/20... a train crashed into the chamber of commerce
           | building in Pecos Tx 5 days ago.
        
             | shepherdjerred wrote:
             | ...yes, but you can't do this with a train
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11_attacks
        
               | fragmede wrote:
               | But you can do all of these:
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_inciden
               | ts_...
        
               | eddythompson80 wrote:
               | In all those examples trains are no different than movie
               | theaters, malls, markets, sport and music events, etc.
               | i.e: just places where large groups of people gather.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | And all these places are easier targets with more people.
        
             | masklinn wrote:
             | 2 dead (both United Pacific employees, I assume train crew)
             | and 3 light injuries from a train crashing into a truck,
             | derailing, and hitting a building I think is pretty good
             | evidence that using a train as your kinetic delivery is not
             | a great way to do terrorism.
        
         | sofixa wrote:
         | There is, in Spain you have mandatory luggage control before
         | boarding high speed trains. I think it was implemented
         | following this massive terrorist attack in 2004:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Madrid_train_bombings
        
           | amelius wrote:
           | I don't think luggage control will do much. Train tracks are
           | hundreds of kilometers of practically unprotected attack
           | surface.
        
         | tgsovlerkhgsel wrote:
         | You can (usually) stop a train within less than a minute and
         | then trivially evacuate it.
         | 
         | They're also less dense than most other public transport,
         | including planes.
         | 
         | And it's impossible to add security to local transit, because
         | standing for 15 minutes at a security checkpoint for a 15
         | minute bus ride will make everyone get a car and/or unelect the
         | idiot who implemented that rule.
        
         | WeylandYutani wrote:
         | The easiest target is plowing into a crowd with a car. Learning
         | how to drive train is beyond the unhinged morons.
        
         | wat10000 wrote:
         | This story is a good example of one major reason: trains are
         | way more robust. Imagine a similar catastrophic fire in the
         | cockpit of a high speed train. Worst case, you hit the
         | emergency stop and then evacuate the train. The only person who
         | would be at risk would be the train driver. Have that fire in
         | an airplane and everyone on board dies.
         | 
         | This incident wasn't a terrorist attack, but the same idea
         | applies there. The Lockerbie bomb, for example, was pretty
         | small. Setting it off in a train might have killed some nearby
         | people, but that's all. But set it off in an airplane and you
         | can kill hundreds.
        
           | masklinn wrote:
           | > Worst case, you hit the emergency stop
           | 
           | You don't even need to do that, because most trains and
           | pretty much every high-speed train has some sort of dead
           | man's switch, so the driver leaving their seat would
           | automatically enable emergency brake in short order as they
           | would if the driver had e.g. fallen unconscious.
        
         | user_7832 wrote:
         | Another reason is, security checks are just one part of the
         | whole process involved. A flight with 100 people dying because
         | of a bomb may be more "glamorous" than 200 dead on a train to a
         | terrorist organization.
         | 
         | Also: the _actual_ number of such people /organizations, is,
         | fortunately, extremely low in daily life.
        
         | happosai wrote:
         | Because security at airports is mostly security theater to make
         | passengers feel safe.
         | 
         | People are generally not afraid of terrorists hijacking or
         | bombing trains, so security theater isn't necessary there.
         | 
         | Bruce Schneier book "beyond fear" is over 20 years old and not
         | outdated a bit.
        
       | ordu wrote:
       | _> if it was a coverup, then the EAAID gave away its own game by
       | attaching the BEA's comprehensive findings._
       | 
       | I'd say, that EAAID had written the report in a way to make the
       | coveraup unmistakable. I mean, the reasoning is not just bad, it
       | contradicts to itself in a way, that to my mind one couldn't
       | achieve without a deliberation. So it is possible that EAAID was
       | forced to support the hypothesis but resisted it in the only way
       | it could.
        
         | ec109685 wrote:
         | Besides not agreeing with the EAAID, nothing in then BEA report
         | makes Egypt look bad. It was a tragic accident and the crew
         | acted admirably.
         | 
         | What was the motivation for Egypt to insist on a bomb
         | detonation beyond them believing that is what happened?
        
           | unyttigfjelltol wrote:
           | I assumed the lavatory alarm sent the Egyptian commission
           | irretrievably down the wrong investigatory path, and couldn't
           | be pulled back.
           | 
           | That said, answering your question, an alternative
           | interpretation would read quite a lot of missing context from
           | the pilot's final words on the CVR:
           | 
           | > For several seconds, the weak sound of breathing continued,
           | followed by the thud of an object falling to the floor. And
           | then, uttering the last words of flight 804, words heard by
           | no one save for that lonely sentinel, the CVR, he said, "[I]
           | ask forgiveness from God."
        
             | elashri wrote:
             | > "[I] ask forgiveness from God."
             | 
             | That's too much reading by a western observer who doesn't
             | understand the religious and cultural aspect of things.
             | This could mean anything from "hoping that God will help us
             | in this difficult situation by admitting your sins" to
             | someone who realizes it is almost the end and as someone
             | who believes in after death then they want to ask
             | forgiveness in the last moments.
        
               | selimthegrim wrote:
               | The last part of the sentence is correct, but the
               | EgyptAir 990 crash gave it a bad cast in Western eyes.
        
           | ndiddy wrote:
           | The article and French report point to the fire being caused
           | by an oxygen leak from a faulty cockpit oxygen mask system.
           | There were many problems reported with the system on that
           | plane, such as the oxygen air level decreasing every flight
           | and the oxygen mask box being replaced with a refurbed faulty
           | one from another plane after it was found to be stuck open.
           | Additionally, there's allegations of other problems with the
           | plane in question not being logged properly. I think having a
           | plane full of passengers on the state-run Egyptian airline
           | getting killed due to poor maintenance is enough of a
           | motivation for the Egyptian government to try to cover things
           | up.
        
       | qingcharles wrote:
       | This is wild to me:                 "Even though passengers have
       | been forbidden from smoking on airplanes for 25 years, the rules
       | about smoking in the cockpit are less straightforward, and
       | international regulations appear to invest the captain with the
       | authority to decide whether smoking will be allowed or not."
        
         | eddywebs wrote:
         | Sounds like rule made by smoking captains for the smoking
         | captains.
        
           | lazide wrote:
           | It's good to be the king?
        
         | eadmund wrote:
         | Why is it surprising? There's no danger from smoking on-board;
         | banning it was never about safety.
        
           | PanMan wrote:
           | There is a danger, but not a direct danger (of the plane
           | crashing). It certainly isn't healthy :)
        
           | woliveirajr wrote:
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Varig_Flight_820
           | 
           | Yes, it was about safety.
        
             | protimewaster wrote:
             | It feels pretty obvious that discouraging fire in a fully
             | enclosed space would have safety as a motivating factor, so
             | I'm surprised that multiple people here are arguing that
             | there's no safety component.
        
             | Rebelgecko wrote:
             | It seems like the corrective action was just to add ash
             | trays? Interesting how the pilot later disappeared without
             | a trace tho
        
           | wat10000 wrote:
           | You just read about dozens of people being killed by an on-
           | board fire and you're going to say there's no danger from
           | casually having a fire on the end of a stick? Even if this
           | one wasn't started by a cigarette, they certainly can cause
           | fires.
        
           | qingcharles wrote:
           | Smoking on flights sucked. The whole cabin ended up hazy and
           | choked with smoke. It stank. I hated those little ashtrays
           | full of nasty ash and gum in the armrests. There are more
           | than just the obvious safety reasons to ban it.
        
           | NBJack wrote:
           | You've got multiple sources of pure oxygen on board, and
           | potentially hundreds of passengers counting on a safe flight
           | in a metal tube hurling through the sky thousands of feet off
           | the ground at hundreds of miles an hour.
        
       | stall84 wrote:
       | This had all the tone from the outset to just be narrowly
       | focussed on this crash-investigation alone, but the writer did
       | dedicate a paragraph to Egyptair Flight 990 from 1999.. An
       | incident that really was one of the first modern airline pilot-
       | suicide's that has never (The NTSB's conclusion) been agreed upon
       | by Egypt. And in the past couple of decades that number has risen
       | at an alarming pace (LAM Mozambique Flight 470 2013, Malaysian
       | Airlines Flight 370 2014, Germanwings Flight 9525 2015) < That
       | extremely frightening and tight grouping of incidents seems to
       | have been followed by a few years of normalcy. Then most recently
       | the China Eastern Flight 5735 that China is still apparently
       | working on a report for, but don't expect much in the way of
       | admission on China's part, of course. But at any rate, there is a
       | noticeable problem in the corps of pilots being selected to fly
       | for several airlines, even really good airlines.
        
         | robocat wrote:
         | Suicide is more common than we measure and can be impetuous:
         | Three days after a publicized suicide, automobile fatalities
         | increase by 31%. The more the suicide is publicized, the more
         | the automobile fatalies increase. The age of the drivers is
         | significantly correlated with the age of the person described
         | in the suicide story. Single-car accidents increase more than
         | other types just after the publicized suicide.
         | 
         | https://www.jstor.org/stable/2778220
        
         | coredog64 wrote:
         | For political reasons SilkAir 185 was ruled inconclusive, but
         | it was almost certainly pilot suicide. Similar to the earlier
         | Egyptair case, the Indonesian authorities were very hostile to
         | the evidence that pointed in that direction.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SilkAir_Flight_185
        
       | eadmund wrote:
       | > there was no evidence that the pilots of flight 804 smoked
       | during the flight. But even though the BEA found that a cigarette
       | didn't cause the fire on flight 804 ... the BEA recommended that
       | EASA examine these risks and amend regulations as necessary
       | 
       | Smoking had nothing to do with this incident. Their own testing
       | showed that holding a cigarette in the oxygen stream was
       | (surprisingly) not dangerous. The only risk from cigarettes they
       | found was deliberately trying to light oxygen tubing with a
       | cigarette.
       | 
       | And yet, despite a complete lack of both relevance and evidence,
       | they included a recommendation to clamp down on pilot smoking.
       | Anti-smoking is hysteria.
        
         | wussboy wrote:
         | This is the second pro smoking post I've seen of yours on this
         | thread. A curious stance to take.
         | 
         | Could a cigarette fall into the mask stowage box and rest
         | against the oxygen tube thus creating a fire? Yes, it could.
         | The entire and complete elimination of this risk is simply
         | solved by forbidding the pilots from smoking, which is already
         | forbidden to the entire cabin crew and passengers. What's the
         | big deal? Who is harmed by not allowing pilots to smoke?
        
       | gus_massa wrote:
       | Why do they use pure oxygen tanks? Isn't it possible to use a mix
       | of oxygen and nitrogen? Doesn't divers use a mix?
        
         | croemer wrote:
         | At high altitudes you need pure oxygen to get appropriate
         | partial pressure of oxygen.
        
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