[HN Gopher] Huge math error corrected in black plastic study; au...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Huge math error corrected in black plastic study; authors say it
       doesn't matter
        
       Author : ars
       Score  : 146 points
       Date   : 2024-12-17 00:52 UTC (4 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (arstechnica.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (arstechnica.com)
        
       | isaacfrond wrote:
       | I was actually seriously considering tossing my kitchenware. It
       | was only me inertia that kept me from it. I wonder how long the
       | afterlife of this one is going to be; reminds me of the autism
       | causing vacines hoax
        
         | crazygringo wrote:
         | Well, the original post on HN was front page. This one is
         | collecting... barely more than a point an hour.
         | 
         | So if HN doesn't even care...
        
           | marssaxman wrote:
           | The discussion of this topic five days ago received 128
           | points and 174 comments:
           | 
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42400008
        
             | crazygringo wrote:
             | Thank you so much!
        
             | thaumasiotes wrote:
             | > The discussion of this topic five days ago received 128
             | points and 174 comments
             | 
             | Interesting. My understanding was that HN yanks a thread
             | off the front page as soon as it has more comments than
             | upvotes, because that's their indicator of being
             | "controversial".
             | 
             | Which never made sense to me, because I leave hundreds of
             | times more comments than article upvotes.
        
               | echoangle wrote:
               | > My understanding was that HN yanks a thread off the
               | front page as soon as it has more comments than upvotes,
               | because that's their indicator of being "controversial".
               | 
               | I have read that a lot of times but this doesn't seem to
               | be the case, I can remember multiple times when I clicked
               | on something on the front page and it had more comments
               | than upvotes.
               | 
               | This is currently on the front page with 245 points and
               | 274 comments:
               | 
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42441502
        
               | 6510 wrote:
               | We need an AI to pick the correct topics and raise us
               | properly.
        
         | jkestner wrote:
         | For sure. In the face of bigger systemic changes that feel out
         | of our control (eating better, working less, affordable health
         | care), we'll try every "one weird trick".
        
         | moron4hire wrote:
         | It's not a hoax, though. Vaccines causing autism was. While the
         | level of the carcinogen wasn't what they thought it was, it's
         | still significantly higher than the 0 that it should be,
         | because the only reason it's there at all is because the
         | companies are recycling plastic from electronics. I think that
         | the researchers saying it doesn't change their conclusion is
         | reasonable.
         | 
         | If you had told me that Cocoa Krispies were 50% rat feces, but
         | then came back and said you'd made a mistake and was off by an
         | order of magnitude, it's only 5%, I think it would be pretty
         | reasonable to not update your conclusion that Cocoa Krispies
         | were significantly contaminated with rat feces.
        
           | pfdietz wrote:
           | > the carcinogen
           | 
           | I love how threat inflation turns chemicals from innocuous to
           | deadly in the absence of any strong evidence.
           | 
           | No, we cannot say this chemical is a carcinogen. Read the
           | wikipedia page.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decabromodiphenyl_ether
           | 
           | > In 2004, ATSDR wrote "Nothing definite is known about the
           | health effects of PBDEs in people. Practically all of the
           | available information is from studies of laboratory animals.
           | Animal studies indicate that commercial decaBDE mixtures are
           | generally much less toxic than the products containing lower
           | brominated PBDEs. DecaBDE is expected to have relatively
           | little effect on the health of humans."
        
             | zug_zug wrote:
             | EPA safe guidelines are changed _all the time_ often by
             | much more than 1 order of magnitude. E.G. lead has gone
             | from .5ppm being safe (1995) to 20 ppb (2023).
             | 
             | If you adopted a life strategy of "only avoid things
             | _after_ scientists have conclusive evidence it 's dangerous
             | for you" then you'd have unnecessarily ingested hundreds of
             | various poisons over the last 100 years.
        
               | 6510 wrote:
               | That people with Alzheimer's cook in aluminum doesn't
               | prove causation.
               | 
               | 2024 https://www.alzheimersresearchuk.org/news/aluminium-
               | and-alzh...
               | 
               | > This research has shown higher aluminium levels in the
               | brain and the fluids that bathe the brain in people with
               | Alzheimer's when compared to healthy individuals. But
               | just spotting higher levels doesn't mean they are a cause
               | of the disease. > [...] most scientists think that
               | aluminium build-up in the brain is more likely to be a
               | consequence of Alzheimer's disease rather than a cause.
               | 
               | Ah yes, the _" most scientists"_ card. _" more likely"_
               | is also hilarious! Most doctors are more likely to smoke
               | camel.
               | 
               | 2010 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21157018/
               | 
               | > The hypothesis that Al significantly contributes to AD
               | is built upon very solid experimental evidence and should
               | not be dismissed. Immediate steps should be taken to
               | lessen human exposure to Al, which may be the single most
               | aggravating and avoidable factor related to AD.
               | 
               | The science folk need an entirely different level of
               | evidence than I do.
        
             | VoodooJuJu wrote:
             | In the absence of any strong evidence, a wise man would be
             | well-served in treating the ingestion of a novel chemical
             | as deadly.
             | 
             | No, the wise man doesn't have strong evidence to the
             | contrary. And no, he's not interested in finding out
             | either. The consequences of ingesting a novel non-Lindy
             | chemical is an unknown unknown that the wise man is not
             | interested in discovering.
             | 
             | Of course, if the potential upsides are great enough, the
             | risk of downsides might be worthwhile.
             | 
             | In the case of the chemical spatula, the downsides are
             | uncertain, but there's the possibility of cancer. The
             | upsides are...greater corporate profits?
             | 
             | The wise man is going to have to pass on that one.
             | 
             | Moderns would do well to try and be more like the wise man.
             | Scientific studies are not the holy grail of knowledge. New
             | studies are coming out all the time, both negating and
             | reaffirming old conclusions. Is this schizophrenic flip-
             | flopping not enough to convince the modern that Scientism
             | isn't the end-all-be-all?
             | 
             | Unknown unknowns emerge at the tails of novel changes
             | introduced to complex systems. Scientific studies are
             | unable to account for these long-tail events. When it comes
             | to your environment and your body, be more Lindy, and stop
             | deferring to the myopicity of Scientism to guide you.
             | 
             | >Eat no fruits from the past one thousand years; drink
             | nothing from the past four thousand years.
        
               | bigmadshoe wrote:
               | I was with you until the quote at the end. What does that
               | even mean?
        
               | VoodooJuJu wrote:
               | It's an aphorism suggesting the importance of the Lindy
               | effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect
               | 
               | The longer something has been around, the longer it will
               | continue to be around. The longevity of something also
               | validates its efficacy and resiliency.
               | 
               | If people have been eating figs and drinking wine for
               | thousands of years, then it's probably good and safe for
               | you to do as well.
               | 
               | If traditional salad recipes avoid the use of conium
               | maculatum, then you should probably avoid it too.
               | 
               | If your ancient ancestors didn't cook with margarine,
               | then you probably shouldn't cook with it either.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | If lead pipes were good enough for the Romans, they
               | should be good enough for us!
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | > If people have been eating figs and drinking wine for
               | thousands of years, then it's probably good and safe for
               | you to do as well.
               | 
               | This is ignores the amounts consumed. Just because a
               | thing is safe at N mg/day doesn't mean it is safe at all
               | doses. The change circumstances of human existence make
               | attempts to come up with simple, eternal rubrics at best
               | a bit chancy, and at worst completely misleading.
        
               | pfannkuchen wrote:
               | Are you cautioning against overdosing on figs?
        
               | VoodooJuJu wrote:
               | It also ignores the particular size of the figs that
               | should be consumed. And it ignores the season that they
               | should be consumed. And it ignores the weather conditions
               | that you should consume them in. And it ignores the hour
               | at which they're consumed. And it ignores the gender of
               | the person that should consume them. And it ignores the
               | eye color of the person that should consume them. And it
               | ignores the hair length of the person that should consume
               | them. And it ignores the precise composition of nitrogen
               | in the soil with which the fig tree has been grown in.
               | And phosphorous. And potassium. And it ignores the day of
               | the week in which the fig should be consumed. And it
               | ignores the material of the utensils used to consume the
               | fig. And it ignores the age of the person that consumes
               | them.
               | 
               | Just enjoy your figs, Paul.
        
               | myrmidon wrote:
               | I can see the appeal of simple, science-sceptical
               | traditionalism.
               | 
               | But it does not pass the smell test.
               | 
               | There is a plethora of substances and practices that are
               | _quite_ harmful, but have been used for millenia. This is
               | because your suggested methodology fails to detect really
               | anything that does not cause traceable _and_ observable
               | harm before the next generation is raised. And that 's a
               | lot of things.
               | 
               | "Science" adds value compared to pure traditionalism
               | because it analyzes precisely how things are harmful, and
               | helps discover mitigations and strategies that pure
               | outcome-driven traditionalism would never have explored.
               | 
               | Examples:
               | 
               | - Lead pipes (used successfully for over two millenia--
               | harmless? no.)
               | 
               | - Basically every carcinogen ever (e.g. Radon: people in
               | affected regions did simply not know about keeping it out
               | of cellars/dwellings, and just died of lung cancer
               | sometimes)
               | 
               | - Salmonella, syphilis, cholera and other pathogens--
               | they are non-issues with proper prevention and/or
               | countermeasures-- without those, people just suffer
               | and/or die.
               | 
               | - Alcohol consumption during pregnancy
               | 
               | edit: I'm not saying that "sticking with what worked in
               | the past" is wrong, or useless information, but its just
               | that-- a statistical prior for harm. It won't reliably
               | tell you neither which things are harmless nor which are
               | harmful, it just gives a rough indication of which it
               | might be.
        
               | jcranmer wrote:
               | It's funny that you use wine as an example of "obviously
               | safe" drink. Because wine is chock full of not-safe-for-
               | human-consumption chemicals (e.g., tannic acid) that
               | would be illegal to use if it were synthetically
               | prepared, but since it's "natural", it gets a free pass.
               | And if you tried to remove all of those chemicals, you'd
               | find that the resulting flavor profile is absolute
               | garbage.
               | 
               | I can also point out--we've been drinking out of lead
               | pipes for thousands of years, so they're obviously safe,
               | right? ... right?
        
               | tivert wrote:
               | >> Unknown unknowns emerge at the tails of novel changes
               | introduced to complex systems. Scientific studies are
               | unable to account for these long-tail events. When it
               | comes to your environment and your body, be more Lindy,
               | and stop deferring to the myopicity of Scientism to guide
               | you.
               | 
               | >>> Eat no fruits from the past one thousand years; drink
               | nothing from the past four thousand years.
               | 
               | > I was with you until the quote at the end. What does
               | that even mean?
               | 
               | I think it means "don't consume anything foodstuff that
               | doesn't have a _long_ record of safety (v.s. trusting the
               | guy in the white lab coat that says the new thing is
               | safe, since in 20 years some other guy in a white lab
               | coat may find it 's actually very unsafe in some
               | previously unknown way).
               | 
               | It appears to be a quote from Nassim Nicholas Taleb,
               | here's a fuller version:
               | https://manassaloi.com/booksummaries/2016/01/21/bed-
               | procrust...:
               | 
               | > Read nothing from the past one hundred years; eat no
               | fruits from the past one thousand years; drink nothing
               | from the past four thousand years (just wine and water);
               | but talk to no ordinary man over forty. A man without a
               | heroic bent starts dying at the age of thirty.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | The problem here is you are asking for the impossible:
               | strong evidence that novel chemicals are safe. How could
               | you ever get that? It's impossible to prove a negative.
               | 
               | And doesn't this just privilege tradition? Chemicals will
               | be grandfathered in for spurious reasons, not because
               | they are actually any safer. Famously, chemicals in
               | plants very often light up the Ames test for
               | carcinogenicity and would be ruled out by your argument
               | if they weren't "natural".
        
               | VoodooJuJu wrote:
               | We have plenty of strong evidence for the safety of tons
               | of things. My ancestors have been consuming cow's milk,
               | mache, and wine for thousands of years. If these things
               | were not safe for consumption, we wouldn't be consuming
               | them to this day. My bloodline wouldn't have made it this
               | far. We don't add poison hemlock to our mache salads
               | because thousands of years ago, some poor souls gave us
               | strong evidence that it's not something you should eat,
               | and that knowledge was passed down to us.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | > wine
               | 
               | Thank you for a most excellent example illustrating my
               | point and demolishing yours.
               | 
               | Alcohol is estimated to cause 4.5% of all cancers in
               | Europe. It's a Group 1 carcinogen, yet it is privileged
               | because of tradition.
               | 
               | https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article/33/6/1128/7295464
        
               | quesera wrote:
               | This logic is not formally valid. It's a reasonable basis
               | of belief for a pre-science culture, though.
               | 
               | Also, FWIW, cow's milk has objectively changed in the
               | last few decades.
        
               | sir0010010 wrote:
               | We have to compare potential downsides though, we have
               | two choices, we can: * not ingest novel chemicals or *
               | ingest novel chemicals that _may_ be carcinogenic, but
               | scientific research will not be able to prove anything
               | either way
               | 
               | Do you not think that it is rational to choose option 1,
               | given our understanding of the Lindy effect?
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | It depends on the benefit of the chemical vs. the risk.
               | One-sided assessment isn't wise.
        
               | tbrownaw wrote:
               | > _In the absence of any strong evidence, a wise man
               | would be well-served in treating the ingestion of a novel
               | chemical as deadly._
               | 
               | Isn't this why we (used to?) feed things to mice to learn
               | about them? To collect additional evidence of safety
               | after basic things like knowing what general kinds of
               | things interact with people's biology say it's probably
               | safe?
        
               | tivert wrote:
               | > In the case of the chemical spatula, the downsides are
               | uncertain, but there's the possibility of cancer. The
               | upsides are...greater corporate profits?
               | 
               | > The wise man is going to have to pass on that one.
               | 
               | We should be all happy to deliver increase value to the
               | shareholders, in whatever way we can. After all, they are
               | the most important people in the world. The wise man is
               | not too wise if he doesn't believe that.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | In the absence of monopoly, advances in technology result
               | in improvement in value for the customers. Profit margins
               | are constrained in any competitive industry.
        
         | phoronixrly wrote:
         | Idk, plastic in contact with hot/acidic food/surfaces gets a no
         | from me. Even before the apparently incorrect paper.
         | 
         | Really, you bought Tupperware? Even if you don't ask yourself
         | whether any contaminants were released by it in your food,
         | maybe the fact that it gets stained by pasta sauce to a point
         | where it becomes an Internet meme makes it shitty kitchenware?
         | 
         | Even without exposure to food, plastic deteriorates with
         | sunlight exposure or even just age... Why spend money on stuff
         | like this? Buy a porcelain salad bowl instead, get a wooden
         | spatula, put some oil on it so it endures washings.
        
         | Tomte wrote:
         | I did. And today I wouldn't, but still, the silicone set is
         | nicer than the hard plastic one. So I don't mind too much.
        
           | marssaxman wrote:
           | Likewise: after throwing out all of our cheap black plastic
           | utensils, we replaced them with much nicer wood, metal, and
           | silicone implements. It was a pleasant little upgrade, even
           | if it wasn't strictly necessary; no regrets.
        
         | emilamlom wrote:
         | They're $5 spatulas that melt and shed bits of plastic over
         | time. Wood, silicon, or stainless steel are all better and not
         | too much more expensive. Even if this was a hoax (which it's
         | not), there's plenty of reason to upgrade anyways.
        
         | dfxm12 wrote:
         | As long as some famous nude model doesn't make it a personal
         | crusade to spread disinfo, I don't think it'll quite reach
         | "autism causing vaccines" levels.
        
         | croes wrote:
         | So you are ok with getting a dosis of 8% of the EPA limit when
         | alternatives with much less toxicity exist?
        
       | EE84M3i wrote:
       | Was this originally discovered by Adam Ragusea? He mentioned it
       | in his video about it before all the press came out about the
       | error, and said he emailed the authors.
        
         | thebetatester wrote:
         | I wondered that as well. Shame they didn't give him credit if
         | he truly was the first one to point it out.
        
         | savanaly wrote:
         | I've never been too sure how closely he's reading those papers
         | he refers to in his informational vids; if he actually
         | discovered a flaw himself from reading one that is highly
         | indicative he's doing a good job!
        
       | thaumasiotes wrote:
       | Obviously it doesn't matter. If it mattered, the paper might get
       | retracted.
        
         | readthenotes1 wrote:
         | You forgot the sarcasm font there....
        
           | phoronixrly wrote:
           | It's not even sarcasm. The authors state that the correction
           | does not alter the conclusion
        
             | thaumasiotes wrote:
             | As I pointed out in my comment above, that's the same thing
             | all authors say when someone shows massive problems in
             | their data.
        
       | coreyh14444 wrote:
       | Also see this from Ethan Mollock on Twitter:
       | https://x.com/emollick/status/1868329599438037491 -- o1 was able
       | to spot the error on the first try. It has now led to a whole
       | initiative called the Black Spatula Project:
       | https://amistrongeryet.substack.com/p/the-black-spatula-proj...
        
       | oidar wrote:
       | People are missing the forest for the trees on this one. I agree
       | with the author here - unfortunate error, but the conclusion
       | should lead to the same actions.
        
         | jtc331 wrote:
         | At minimum it changes the urgency for individuals with existing
         | cookware.
        
           | phoronixrly wrote:
           | We are talking about black plastic spatulas and spoons,
           | right? Existing cookware? Non-plastic replacements' price is
           | less than 5 euro at IKEA, possibly less at local kitchenware
           | stores... What urgency would there be apart from 'oh I need
           | to pick up a wooden spatula for eur 0.50 next time I go to
           | IKEA'...
        
         | coldpie wrote:
         | So the main concept people are having a disagreement here is
         | around the concept of _risk_ versus _hazard_. A thing can be a
         | hazard, without being a risk. The data you should use to decide
         | to take action is the amount of _risk_ , not the amount of
         | _hazard_. In the specific scenario of humans ingesting
         | potentially dangerous substances, usually risk is directly
         | related to the amount of _exposure_ to a hazard. In other
         | words, you can think of it as  "risk = hazard * exposure."
         | 
         | For example:
         | 
         | - If you're a smoker, your exposure to the hazardous substances
         | in cigarette smoke is sky-high. The risk to your health of
         | being a smoker is so high and so clear that societies spend
         | millions of dollars to try to convince people of the risk.
         | 
         | - If you're living with a smoker, but not a smoker yourself,
         | then your exposure is lower, but still high enough to be
         | actionable. So we see indoor smoking bans and 2nd hand smoke
         | information also included in anti-smoking campaigns.
         | 
         | - If you're walking down the sidewalk and pass by a smoker for
         | three seconds, you're still encountering the exact same hazard,
         | but your exposure is so low that the risk is not really
         | actionable. It's not like we see big public campaigns about
         | crossing the street to avoid the risk of 3 seconds of exposure
         | to second hand smoke. That's because the _risk_ isn 't there.
         | 
         | - Someone smoking in their house 50 miles from you is obviously
         | zero risk to you at all, even though the hazard still exists.
         | 
         | You can see the same kind of pattern everywhere: car exhaust is
         | the same hazard everywhere, but whether it's a _risk worth
         | actioning_ depends on whether you live in a dense urban center,
         | or next to a busy freeway, or out in the exurbs.
         | 
         | So back to the plastic stuff. The study authors were claiming
         | that the level of _risk_ was high enough to justify everyone in
         | the world throwing their utensils away and buying brand new
         | ones. When it came out that the exposure factor of their  "risk
         | = hazard * exposure" formula was actually off by a factor of
         | 10, they... stuck with the exact same story? I don't know, man.
         | The original claim was below the acceptable risk threshold, and
         | now it's even ten times lower than that. Surely that has some
         | impact on the level of risk? Does this drop the risk from
         | "smoker" to "passing by a smoker for 3 seconds"?
         | 
         | The distinction matters when deciding how much effort
         | mitigating this risk requires: should I throw everything out
         | right now, or just buy something else when my current ones wear
         | out, or is the risk actually so low that it really does not
         | matter? If I replace them, what is the level of risk of the
         | things I replace them with? Should society put in the effort to
         | ban these chemicals? What are the pros/cons of that? Are the
         | risks mitigated worth the costs?
         | 
         | The authors' refusal to acknowledge this really makes me doubt
         | that their conclusion is not affected by some kind of bias. The
         | jury's still out, sure, but I'm not yet sold on their risk
         | claims.
        
           | oidar wrote:
           | I think the paper's authors contribution to common knowledge
           | here isn't the risk/hazard/exposure calculation - it is that
           | there is a risk at all.
        
             | coldpie wrote:
             | I don't think so. The authors recommended stopping using
             | these utensils based on their faulty risk analysis, and all
             | of the media coverage repeated that. Even after the
             | correction, the authors are still pushing their conclusion.
        
         | IshKebab wrote:
         | Why? The risk is much much lower than they stated.
        
           | ternnoburn wrote:
           | Because risk is still high. It's not astronomically high, but
           | it's still quite high.
           | 
           | And it's trivial to replace with materials that don't have
           | that risk. For a couple bucks you can remove fire retardants
           | from your food. Why wouldn't you?
        
       | JoshGG wrote:
       | What amount of fire retardants would you like in your food? How
       | about zero? I would like zero.
       | 
       | These have already been banned in CA from furniture because it
       | creates household exposure. Why would it be ok in cooking
       | utensils?
       | 
       | BTW the chemicals don't actually prevent house fires it's
       | basically an industry scam to put them into products.
        
         | infecto wrote:
         | Your information is incorrect.
         | 
         | Flame retardants were introduced into everything because of CA
         | and Federal laws requiring items to smolder and not catch fire.
         | While I don't believe flame retardants should be as prevalent
         | as they are today, I also think its unfair to say they don't
         | prevent house fires. They absolutely have done some saving but
         | I don't think across the entire population its a net positive.
         | These rules were originally put into place because of a number
         | of high profile cases where kids died, the biggest vector were
         | beds, people smoked and dropped the butt on their mattress and
         | poof.
         | 
         | That rule in CA is in the right direction, glad they are
         | helping right some of the wrong they did but it is still in
         | everything. I think its more helpful to paint the accurate
         | historical picture as opposed to yours which is using hyperbole
         | to generate a reaction.
        
           | JoshGG wrote:
           | """ Flame retardants were widely adopted in the 1970s, when
           | in-home smoking was more prevalent and electronics frequently
           | overheated. New research, however, shows that flame
           | retardants are not very effective at slowing or preventing
           | fires. """
           | 
           | https://www.sfenvironment.org/how-can-i-avoid-flame-
           | retardan...
        
             | infecto wrote:
             | Is that supposed to prove something? That site is all
             | fluff.
             | 
             | I am not here defending flame retardants, I absolutely
             | believe they don't provide a net positive to the
             | population. Your lack of information and hyperbole is what
             | I am after. These were not "scams". Your SF website does a
             | good job of leaving out California's TB117 which is one of
             | the pivotal laws that created widespread adoption of
             | retardants in items. There were also some prior Federal
             | laws but TB117 is seen as one of pivotal ones.
             | 
             | Now, I don't know the history behind the chemical
             | manufacturers and if they were behind the fear mongering
             | but there absolutely were tragic cases that moved the
             | nation to implement these laws. It was not just a "scam"
             | that gets added to everything.
        
               | zug_zug wrote:
               | I think they could be called a scam. Having flame
               | retardent in our bedding by law, all so smokers could
               | smoke in bed safely, feels like some sort of regulatory
               | capture to me.
               | 
               | They should make flame-retardent bedware and non-flame-
               | retwrdent bedware, and should be legally obligated to
               | disclose every flame-retarded chemical and daily expected
               | daily exposure levels on the tags and box.
        
               | infecto wrote:
               | Well things have gotten better in the past 20yrs but
               | there is a long way to go. Childrens sleepware is the
               | notable item that still contains retardants and at least
               | there is mandatory tagging for when its present.
               | 
               | when I have done readings before I honestly could not
               | find note of regulatory capture but sometimes these
               | things get muddied with history. Saying its a scam is
               | just hyperbole. Most of the laws on the book are tied in
               | time to some fairly large (100+ person) fire death
               | events. There is a reason those laws were created and we
               | were still in a period of time where chemicals could
               | solve all problems.
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | Flame retardant bedware is called "the bedware your great
               | grandparents had".
               | 
               | Problem is, in capitalism's endless march towards ...
               | well, who knows what, precisely ... companies began to
               | make bedware out of synthetic fabric because it was (a)
               | cheaper to make (b) allowing lower retail prices and
               | potentially (c) higher profit margins. There's also some
               | sense in which synthetic fabrics can be longer lived than
               | non-synthetics.
               | 
               | Once this stuff was out in people's lives, we realized
               | that there was (at least) one downside: these fabrics
               | also ignite much more easily than non-synthetics, and
               | when they do, they generate flame which spreads a fire
               | even more rapidly.
               | 
               | One option would have been to just ban any fabrics that
               | ignite more easily than (say) cotton. That would have
               | been cast by some as a move against the interests of
               | lower income people (not necessarily incorrectly).
               | 
               | Another option would have been to just leave things
               | alone, and let the people who choose to buy synthetic
               | bedware sans flame retardants deal with the consequences
               | themselves. Alas, that's not actually how our society
               | works. When your neighbor's house goes up in flames
               | because of their bedding choices, you still want your
               | fire department to show up and get things under control,
               | lest you lose your home too.
               | 
               | So .. we set standards for how much and what types of
               | flame retardants were acceptable (standards that are
               | subject to and have been changed over time), and let
               | people continue to buy synthetic bedware (and furniture
               | and clothes and ....) all of which contribute to the fuel
               | load should a fire break out.
               | 
               | I am a firefighter (II), and the increase in the speed
               | with which homes can now be fully engulfed because of the
               | decline in the low of low-flammable materials and the
               | rise of synthetics is utterly terrifying.
        
         | IshKebab wrote:
         | Zero is an impractical goal. I would like zero cars on the
         | road. Zero litter. Zero CO2 emission. Zero idiots on the
         | internet.
         | 
         | Sadly we both live in the real world. "A small fraction of the
         | recommended limit" is perfectly acceptable.
        
           | ternnoburn wrote:
           | Is 8% a small fraction? I don't think it is... sure it's not
           | 80%, but it's definitely not 0.08% either.
        
             | godshatter wrote:
             | I am unlikely to use a black plastic spatula more than 12.5
             | times more often, daily, for enough days in a row for this
             | to really be a risk I need to worry about. Having said
             | that, the next time I need to buy a spatula I'll probably
             | buy one made of something else.
        
         | exabrial wrote:
         | > it's basically an industry scam to put them into products.
         | 
         | This assertion cannot possibly be correct, regardless of the
         | study
        
       | OJFord wrote:
       | > Ars has reached out to the lead author, Megan Liu, but has not
       | received a response. Liu works for the environmental health
       | advocacy group Toxic-Free Future, which led the study.
       | 
       | Clearly the authors had their conclusion even before _doing_ the
       | study, so of course the error doesn 't affect it.
        
         | phoronixrly wrote:
         | No. The authors state that their conclusion is not altered by
         | the change in calculations. As per TFA:
         | 
         | > "This calculation error does not affect the overall
         | conclusion of the paper," the correction reads. The corrected
         | study still ends by saying that the flame retardants
         | "significantly contaminate" the plastic products, which have
         | "high exposure potential."
        
         | ajkjk wrote:
         | How is that clear? Perhaps they are a group that exists to do
         | studies like that.
        
           | kevin_thibedeau wrote:
           | Groups that exist to do studies like that can be biased
           | toward gainful employment and suppress anything that
           | threatens the revenue stream.
        
             | croes wrote:
             | Can but in this case it's still unnecessarily toxic with 8%
             | of the EPA limit
        
             | ajkjk wrote:
             | And they can also do real studies with plenty of scientific
             | legitimacy. Without evaluating the studies you have no way
             | of knowing if they're biased or not and you're just
             | spreading conspiracy theories.
        
           | OJFord wrote:
           | That is pretty much my point, yes.
        
         | ternnoburn wrote:
         | 80% of maximum fire retardants entering food or 8% of maximum
         | fire retardants entering food are both "too much fire
         | retardants entering food".
         | 
         | Seems like the conclusion very obviously still holds, so I'd
         | agree with the study authors here, that error doesn't alter the
         | conclusion.
        
           | coldpie wrote:
           | > 80% of maximum fire retardants entering food or 8% of
           | maximum fire retardants entering food are both "too much fire
           | retardants entering food".
           | 
           | OK, but that's not what this study was about, right? The
           | original claim by the authors was that these utensils brushed
           | up against safe limits. When that turned out to be false, the
           | claim has shifted to the safe limits are too high. But that's
           | a different study. You need to do a safety analysis of
           | exposures to the substance. That's not what their study did.
        
             | portaouflop wrote:
             | It doesn't affect the conclusion so who cares what the
             | study was about initially?
        
               | coldpie wrote:
               | Their conclusion that these utensils are dangerous
               | depended on the results that showed these utensils are at
               | or about the FDA's maximum safe dose. But after
               | correcting the math error, it turns out they're actually
               | about 1/10 of that. That invalidates their conclusion.
        
               | ternnoburn wrote:
               | 1/10th is still high? And doses aren't a on/off amount.
               | It's not like there's no risk until you hit 100% and then
               | there's max risk. Exposure is exposure.
               | 
               | There's a lethal dose for alcohol, but having 1/10th of
               | that dose can still strongly negatively impact me.
        
               | coldpie wrote:
               | > 1/10th is still high
               | 
               | Based on what? The FDA's safe dose by definition means
               | there are no known significant risks. They build in
               | pretty hefty safety margins in these things. It
               | definitely could still be too high! We get things wrong
               | all the time. But you need a different kind of study to
               | show that.
        
         | croes wrote:
         | So instead of 80% toxic limit it's ,,only" 8%.
         | 
         | Sorry but I don't want any toxic material in the tools I use
         | for food.
        
           | tbrownaw wrote:
           | Fun fact: oxygen is toxic in high enough concentrations.
        
             | 7bit wrote:
             | Wtf bro. So is 0 oxygen intake. But 0 toxic intake isnt, so
             | it's fair to say you want 0.
        
               | tbrownaw wrote:
               | Are you familiar with the phrase "the dose makes the
               | poison"?
        
               | 7bit wrote:
               | Are you challenged or something?
        
           | OJFord wrote:
           | It's not 'toxic material', it has a toxic _dose_. Too much
           | water and you die. You do want some percentage of that level
           | of water, though.
        
             | croes wrote:
             | The brominated flame retardants are inherently toxic and
             | are therefore considered toxic materials.
        
               | EasyMark wrote:
               | Especially since it can build up in the body. Kind of
               | like some vitamins you can have 1000% of the RDA because
               | they are very water-soluble and go through like a sieve
               | anyway, but others get toxic much quicker because they
               | are fat soluble and get stored in fat cells for the long
               | haul.
        
               | OJFord wrote:
               | How many spatulae are you planning on eating?
        
               | danielschreber wrote:
               | It's important to consider that the average person is
               | probably much less likely to eat a spatula that is on
               | fire.
               | 
               | Therefore, simply averaging the flame retardant content
               | of a random sample of spatulas could result in a bias.
               | 
               | It's precisely the ones that are the most toxic that one
               | would expect to be the most edible.
        
               | canucker2016 wrote:
               | First, you have to find a spatula with the specific
               | compound in question.
               | 
               | Less than 10% of items studied contained the specific
               | compound in the article.
               | 
               | FTA:                   The study examined 203 black
               | plastic household products, including 109 kitchen
               | utensils, 36 toys, 30 hair accessories, and 28 food
               | serviceware products. Of those 203 products, only 20 (10
               | percent) had any bromine-containing compounds at levels
               | that might indicate contamination from bromine-based
               | flame retardants, like BDE-209. Of the 109 kitchen
               | utensils tested, only nine (8 percent) contained
               | concerning bromine levels.              "[A] minority of
               | black plastic products are contaminated at levels >50 ppm
               | [bromine]," the study states.              But that's
               | just bromine compounds. Overall, only 14 of the 203
               | products contained BDE-209 specifically.
        
               | croes wrote:
               | It's adds up with all the other sources of toxic material
               | we are exposed to.
        
         | jcranmer wrote:
         | On the most charitable level, the "huge math error" occurred in
         | the calculation of the FDA's limits on exposure, so if the
         | group feels that the FDA set its limits too high and the amount
         | of chemicals being leached is worrying, then the math error
         | really doesn't affect their conclusion at all.
         | 
         | But digging into the study, it becomes clear that the authors
         | are really reaching in their methodology--subjecting utensils
         | to rather implausible scenarios (when was the last time you
         | microwaved your sushi tray?)--to try to get some samples that
         | would exceed the limit. The hyperbolic media coverage of "ditch
         | all your black plastics" isn't really sustained when the
         | research finds that just a few specimens, when subjected to
         | unusually high heat stresses, managed to just barely cross the
         | incorrectly-calculated FDA threshold (itself likely set at a
         | factor of a tenth to a hundredth of the lowest threshold
         | observed to cause issues in previous studies!). That the
         | authors aren't willing to disavow that media coverage is more
         | telling then their unwillingness to adjust their conclusions in
         | response to their math error.
        
           | tivert wrote:
           | > subjecting utensils to rather implausible scenarios (when
           | was the last time you microwaved your sushi tray?)
           | 
           | That's not implausible. Sushi actually tastes better a little
           | warm than chilled.
           | 
           | Also I think it would make sense to test all food trays the
           | same way, as some of those _do_ get heated quite a bit (e.g.
           | I 've microwaved take-out noodles in plastic trays _very_
           | similar to a take-out sushi trays). It 's not like it's
           | plausible that there's some special sushi-tray supply chain
           | where they've carefully determined they can safely get away
           | with using e-waste plastic. It's almost certain that industry
           | consists of many takeout tray companies that each make a
           | whole line of takeout trays for different uses _using the
           | same raw materials_ (e.g. the sushi cart at my employer sold
           | sushi and _hot_ noodle soup in black plastic trays, which
           | plausibly could come form the same manufacturer).
        
           | EasyMark wrote:
           | In general with all the microplastics floating around, I
           | found it not a large investment to divest of 95% of the
           | plastic in my kitchen (there was a lot), including the black
           | variety, and only cook in stainless/carbon steel, ceramic
           | enameled cookware, and glass with wood or stainless steel
           | utensils and only drink filtered water. It's not hard to get
           | most of the plastic out of your kitchen at least, but there
           | are tons of other sources; clothes, furniture, devices, etc.
           | I'm working on minimizing some of that as well. One of the
           | most frustrating things is you can't find a drip coffee maker
           | with an all metal full path for the water to grounds path.
           | Everything I looked at had a ton of plastic unless it was
           | $700+, so I live with the ritual of the french press for now
        
             | dazed_confused wrote:
             | Pour-over funnels have glass and ceramic options, and the
             | coffee turns out quite tasty.
        
       | itsdrewmiller wrote:
       | Basically a dupe of https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42400008
        
       | animanoir wrote:
       | Click bait article.
        
         | EasyMark wrote:
         | I would say it's a factor of 10 times less clickbaity than the
         | click-bait of the original article if 80% to 8% is indeed
         | correct.
        
       | spacemark wrote:
       | Maybe it's just too early or there are other posts, but I find it
       | an interesting insight into human behavior - supposedly
       | intelligent human behavior - that there were hundreds of comments
       | on the posting of the original study here at HN, the vast
       | majority of which accepted the study's conclusion, yet there are
       | much fewer comments on the "adjustment" to the study's
       | conclusion.
       | 
       | I shouldn't be too cynical, but it's a reminder to be skeptical,
       | always.
        
         | marssaxman wrote:
         | There was a discussion of this retraction last week which
         | received many more comments:
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42400008
        
       | theshaper wrote:
       | Update: "Journal that published faulty black plastic study
       | removed from science index"
       | 
       | https://arstechnica.com/health/2024/12/journal-that-publishe...
        
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