[HN Gopher] Using GPS satellites to detect tsunamis via ionosphe...
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       Using GPS satellites to detect tsunamis via ionospheric ionization
       waves
        
       Author : Gedxx
       Score  : 99 points
       Date   : 2024-12-17 14:50 UTC (3 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.earthdata.nasa.gov)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.earthdata.nasa.gov)
        
       | unsnap_biceps wrote:
       | This is amazing work. I don't quite understand how they are
       | detecting the tsunamis though. They mention that this works via
       | significant displacements of air. Is the amount of air
       | displacement in the open ocean statistically significant for
       | detection or is it being detected via a slightly different
       | source.
        
         | hotshot1001 wrote:
         | i believe its the pressure waves propagating through the air
         | itself is pushing the ionosphere upwards, inducing a detectable
         | signal from fluctuations in the electron density.
        
         | magicalhippo wrote:
         | The way I understood it is that the wave amplitude of a tsunami
         | isn't typically huge, say only a few feet[1], however it's
         | wavelength is. Thus while normal waves can have a much larger
         | amplitude, they're easily filtered by a low-pass filter.
         | 
         | edit: The atmosphere between the surface and the ionosphere
         | forms a natural low-pass filter as well. I imagine typical
         | ocean waves as seen by us are way too high-frequency to make it
         | up to the ionosphere.
         | 
         | There are other, natural disturbances in the ionosphere, such
         | as traveling planetary waves[2], but they have a significantly
         | longer wavelength. As such the paper[3] mentions filtering them
         | out using a high-pass filter.
         | 
         | In the paper they show some preliminary results trying to
         | invert the parameters in order to estimate the height of the
         | tsunami based on the measured ionosphere disturbance based on
         | synthetic data, and the baseline amplitude is 10cm (4 inches),
         | which the model comes quite close to.
         | 
         | [1]:
         | https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/fromthefield/2014/04...
         | 
         | [2]:
         | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/201...
         | 
         | [3]:
         | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10291-022-01365-6
        
         | mgsouth wrote:
         | Pretty astounding, isn't it? I don't see a paper, but there was
         | a webinar [1]. There's a technical synopsis at 8:00. The
         | phenomenon they're measuring is actually signficant. It's the
         | total number of (free?) electrons between the satellite and the
         | receiver. Typically its about 10^12 electrons/m^3 (@8:00 in
         | video). The disturbance from the 2011 earthquake and tsunami
         | was, if I'm reading the movie/chart correctly, about +/- 1
         | TECU, which is 10^16 electrons/m^3 (@10:40). The water
         | elevation may only be a few feet in open ocean, but it's over a
         | vast area. That's a lot of power.
         | 
         | They're measuring it by looking for phase differences in the
         | received L-band (~2GHz) signals, rather than amplitude. That
         | eliminates lots of noise. And they're looking for a particular
         | pattern, which lets you get way below the noise floor. For
         | example, the signal strength of the GNSS (GPS) signal itself
         | might be -125 dBm, while the noise level is -110 dBm [2]. That
         | means the signal is 10^-12 _milliwatts_, and the noise is about
         | 30 times larger. But by looking for a pattern the receiver gets
         | a 43 dB processing boost, putting the effective signal well
         | above the noise.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEpZmRPPWFo
         | 
         | [2] https://www.nxp.com/docs/en/brochure/75016740.pdf
        
           | mgsouth wrote:
           | OK, the "typically 10^12 TEC" vs. a +/- 1 TECU (10^16 TEC)
           | disturbance was really bugging me. I think the slide has an
           | error, or there's an apples/oranges issue. The +/- 1 TECU
           | looks to be consistent, but the typical background level is
           | "a few TECU to several hundred" [1]. A Wikipedia page has
           | shows the levels over the US being between 10 - 50 TECU on
           | 2023-11-24, and says that "very small disturbances of 0.1 -
           | 0.5 TEC units" are "primarily generated by gravity waves
           | propagating upward from lower atmosphere." [2].
           | 
           | [1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/total-electron-
           | content
           | 
           | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_electron_content
        
           | Qqqwxs wrote:
           | To expand upon this:
           | 
           | >> They're measuring it by looking for phase differences in
           | the received L-band (~2GHz) signals
           | 
           | The "L-Band signals" are GNSS signals, for example GPS L1 and
           | L2, which use a carrier wavelength of 1575.42 MHz and 1227.6
           | MHz, respectively. Both L1 and L2 signals are emitted at the
           | same time, but experience differing levels of delay in the
           | ionosphere during their journey to the receiver. The delay is
           | a function of total electron content (TEC) in the ionosphere
           | and the frequency of the carrier wavelength. Since we already
           | know precisely how carrier frequency affects the ionospheric
           | delay, comparing the delay between L1 and L2 signals allows
           | us to calculate the TEC along the signal path.
           | 
           | Another way to think of it is: we have an equation for signal
           | path delay with two unknowns (TEC, freq). Except, it is only
           | one unknown (TEC). Use two signals to solve simultaneously
           | for this unknown. Use additional signals (like L5) to reduce
           | your error and check your variance.
        
         | xattt wrote:
         | If you can imagine this, can you imagine the forms of sensing-
         | by-proxy that's possible that's kept under wraps by various
         | Skunkworks orgs?
        
       | magicalhippo wrote:
       | Open-access paper here:
       | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10291-022-01365-6
        
       | ygouzerh wrote:
       | Wow that would be great! The high number of casualties during the
       | 2002 tsunami mostly was due to a lack of early alerting, as not
       | enough tsunami buoys were deployed. This could have save so many
       | lives.
        
         | IncreasePosts wrote:
         | I presume you mean 2004
        
       | ElectRabbit wrote:
       | Having a crazy stable transmitter and clock source allows to
       | detect a lot of interesting (side) effects.
        
         | floatrock wrote:
         | So is this technically a side-channel attack against nature?
        
           | ElectRabbit wrote:
           | I would rather call it misuse of GPS ;-)
        
       | hbrav wrote:
       | This sounds very similar to the method discussed in this podcast
       | to detect rocket launches:
       | https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1216884/detecting-mi...
        
       | floatrock wrote:
       | > The GNSS-based Upper Atmospheric Realtime Disaster Information
       | and Alert Network (GUARDIAN) is an ionospheric monitoring
       | yadayadayadascience
       | 
       | That's a pretty impressive number of scrabble points for a
       | project acronym, and I guess bonus points for building that
       | acronym on top of another acronym (GNSS = Global Navigation
       | Satellite System, generic term for America's GPS).
       | 
       | I know government projects have a long, storied history of such
       | wordplay. Anyone have any fun stories on coming up with a really
       | elaborate one? I wonder if chatGPT will unleash a new era of
       | creativity with these...
        
         | sailfast wrote:
         | I still think the USA PATRIOT Act is the most diabolical.
         | 
         | "Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate
         | Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism"
         | 
         | Also... goodbye privacy but, you know... Patriotism!
        
           | lxgr wrote:
           | My favorite backfired backronym is definitely the CAN-SPAM
           | act [1].
           | 
           | I get that it's a play on "canning something", but as a
           | strong believer in nominative determinism, it comes as no
           | surprise to me that companies in fact still _can spam_ me.
           | 
           | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAN-SPAM_Act_of_2003
        
         | goochphd wrote:
         | I love the creativity that goes into naming these projects in
         | the geosciences! I've been a part of several of these projects
         | myself, and have used data and collaborated with teams from
         | many more.
         | 
         | One point of clarification: GNSS is a term that has broader
         | application than you describe, as it encompasses constellations
         | from other countries and political associations as well. For
         | example:
         | 
         | * Galileo - European Union's GNSS system, named after the
         | astronomer * BeiDou - China's GNSS system * GLONASS - Russia's
         | GNSS system * JAXA - Japan's GNSS system
         | 
         | One backronym that I liked from my time doing my PhD was
         | RELAMPAGO, which is a Spanish word for "lightning," but which
         | some group of scientists gave this definition: "Remote sensing
         | of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale
         | Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations". It was a very
         | cool campaign that produced a ton of amazing data, and
         | catalyzed many dissertations (including one of my close
         | friend's).
        
           | beerandt wrote:
           | GPS was the more generic term until US Navstar-GPS became
           | such the default that it aquired the generic term. And
           | eventually dropped the Navstar, officially.
           | 
           | Sort of a reverse Xerox/Google/Velcro situation.
        
         | beerandt wrote:
         | GPS was originally NAVSTAR or Navstar-GPS (names helped, going
         | back to when LORAN was state of the art and other competing dod
         | navigation systems were being developed, like the Navy's
         | TRANSIT sats).
         | 
         | But lots of old school pros like surveyors will still refer to
         | it as 'Navstar', which has resurged with the introduction of
         | competing GNSS systems from other countries. Especially if you
         | want to avoid the GPS/GNSS confusion.
         | 
         | There's debate about whether NAVSTAR itself was ever an
         | acronym/backroom, or just a name.
         | 
         | "NAVigation System using Timing And Ranging"
        
         | xattt wrote:
         | I thought GPS was generic and NAVSTAR was the "brand".
        
         | yieldcrv wrote:
         | GNSSbUARDIAN
        
         | sumofproducts wrote:
         | Maritime Augmented Guidance with Integrated Controls for
         | Carrier Approach and Recovery Precision Enabling Technologies:
         | MAGIC CARPET.
        
         | notahacker wrote:
         | > I wonder if chatGPT will unleash a new era of creativity with
         | these...
         | 
         | Can confirm I've already submitted at least one bid with a
         | chatGPT-derived acronym, complete with an X for scrabble
         | points.
         | 
         | I'll chalk that one up as an argument in favour of "LLMs will
         | take over the world", as coming up with cool acronyms involving
         | sciency-sounding words genuinely might be one of the most
         | important jobs in the space industry
        
         | nimbius wrote:
         | Gnss includes other systems like glonass and beidou, not just
         | GPS.
         | 
         | Frankly GPS is so outmoded as to be a questionable source of
         | meaningful data for things like ionospheric metrics. Beidou is
         | light years ahead in both speed and fidelity.
        
       | myrmidon wrote:
       | Very interesting article. It also illustrates how dangerous unit
       | conversions are especially combined with thousands separators:
       | 20000km (GNSS satellite altitude) is NOT 12.4 miles.
       | 
       | Does anyone know if it would be feasible nowadays to just use
       | starlink (or other LEO satellites) as a GNSS constellation? Even
       | without precise onboard-clocks, would it not be possible to just
       | bounce clock signals from earth as long as latency is known?
        
         | loxias wrote:
         | > as long as latency is known?
         | 
         | Ah, but how do you know latency, without accurate clocks? :)
         | Accurate clocks facilitates measuring latency, which is used to
         | calculate distance. :)
        
           | lxgr wrote:
           | True, but the accurate clock doesn't need to be aboard the
           | satellites as long as they have continuous (low-jitter)
           | connectivity to the timing source, and Iridium and newer
           | Starlink satellites do.
        
         | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
         | starlink is in a low enough orbit that it isn't ideal
         | (atmospheric drag will make the position harder to accurately
         | predict)
        
         | lxgr wrote:
         | Yes, this is actively being explored, see for example this for
         | Iridium: https://investor.iridium.com/2021-05-24-Iridium-Makes-
         | Strate...
        
       | jvanderbot wrote:
       | Tangentially related ... I've heard that earthquakes can be
       | detected, perhaps even prior to the event, by changes in the
       | ionosphere.
       | 
       | But last I checked, the serious geologists I worked with had an
       | almost religious aversion to "precursor signals". Has the state
       | of the art changed there?
        
       | aaron695 wrote:
       | Live map here - https://guardian.jpl.nasa.gov/
       | 
       | I don't understand, something happens every day. It's been
       | running for years. Are the predicting it our not?
       | 
       | Have they timestamped a prediction/analysis beating other methods
       | and had it confirmed afterwards?
       | 
       | How often is it wrong, how often is it right when they make calls
       | real time?
        
         | ted_dunning wrote:
         | They aren't really predicting events at all.
         | 
         | They are _detecting_ events quickly.
        
       | jinnko wrote:
       | I don't get it, are the figures here typos?
       | 
       | > Given that GNSS satellites typically travel in medium Earth
       | orbit, approximately 20,000 km or 12.4 miles above the surface,
       | GNSS systems are well suited for detecting fluctuations in
       | ionospheric density. > > Further, because ground stations can
       | detect GNSS satellites from such a significant distance (up to
       | 1,200 km),...
       | 
       | Should that be 2000 km and 1240 mi?
        
         | tonyarkles wrote:
         | I believe around 19,500km is the correct number from some past
         | work.
        
         | lxgr wrote:
         | No, GNSS constellations are indeed usually in MEO, not LEO.
         | 
         | Using MEO means that they'll need fewer satellites for global
         | coverage at acceptable elevation angles than they would in LEO,
         | and since navigation signals are very low data rate, power is
         | usually not a limiting factor either.
        
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