[HN Gopher] Mysterious New Jersey drone sightings prompt call fo...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Mysterious New Jersey drone sightings prompt call for 'state of
       emergency'
        
       Author : anigbrowl
       Score  : 430 points
       Date   : 2024-12-11 19:02 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.theguardian.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.theguardian.com)
        
       | lisper wrote:
       | Martians!
        
       | ents wrote:
       | Why are they not being shot down at the very least?
        
         | soared wrote:
         | I don't think anyone has the tools to go to an area after a
         | spotting and capture/destroy them quick enough.
        
           | hoppyhoppy2 wrote:
           | Not to mention that it's illegal to shoot down aircraft
        
         | runjake wrote:
         | Shooting large, apparently car-sized, stuff down over populated
         | areas isn't a good idea.
         | 
         | As an aside, I presume at this point, the military and FBI are
         | stationing their SIGINT aircraft over the area and probably
         | have a good idea what's going on but aren't saying publicly.
         | These things are emitting electromagnetic energy in more ways
         | that one, eg. radios and electric motor RF signatures.
         | 
         | RIP the SkyCircles accounts on Twitter.
        
         | KK7NIL wrote:
         | The FAA looks down on people shooting at flying objects they
         | can barely recognize, as this guy learned the hard way:
         | https://www.yahoo.com/news/retiree-shot-walmart-delivery-dro...
        
           | mindslight wrote:
           | > _DroneUp Delivery was working on mock deliveries for
           | Walmart and had set up a delivery point outside of Mr Winn's
           | ... home_
           | 
           | > _The defendant stated he had past experience with drones
           | and believed they were surveilling him_
           | 
           | The question I'm left with after reading that article - was
           | this test delivery point for a single trial run, or did this
           | company choose one random location and then repeatedly send
           | tests there over and over? If it's the latter, that seems
           | like it should _also_ warrant criminal charges.
        
             | binary132 wrote:
             | Companies should not be sending UAVs to anyone's property
             | without permission, period. This stuff needs to get sorted
             | out in law and these bozos need to back off.
        
         | dartos wrote:
         | Gravity
        
         | bell-cot wrote:
         | "Shot down" with what? Surface-to-air missiles? Duck hunters
         | with shotguns? Attack helicopters with miniguns?
         | 
         | Whatever you spray into the sky (to knock a drone out of it)
         | will also fall back to earth, plausibly generating civilian
         | casualties on the ground. (And if you use lasers - high power
         | laser beams have plenty of safety issues, too.)
        
           | potato3732842 wrote:
           | If Ukraine is any indication you shoot them down with other
           | drones.
        
             | gowld wrote:
             | No one in Ukraine is in the habit of shooting down
             | commercial airliners and helicopters, though.
        
               | wood_spirit wrote:
               | No they used Buk missiles instead.
        
               | bananapub wrote:
               | where they = the Russian military or Russian-military
               | aligned terrorist groups.
        
             | bell-cot wrote:
             | Ukraine's capabilities in that domain are plausibly far
             | more advanced that America's.
             | 
             | Also - costs, casualties, & collateral damage may be far
             | more acceptable in an active war zone, and against drones
             | which are busy killing people & destroying valuables
             | whenever they are not shot down.
        
               | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
               | Ukraine's capabilities mostly consist of ramming a cheap
               | drone into an expensive one.
               | 
               | This is one of those times when the US has a Maginot
               | Military - massively overpowered against traditional
               | threats, inexperienced when dealing with something like
               | this.
               | 
               | This is not a trivial problem. A cheap drone with a
               | relatively small explosive payload flown into an air
               | intake can take down a military aircraft and cause
               | serious problems for an airliner or private jet.
               | 
               | An airfield is the ideal place to do that, because
               | aircraft are most vulnerable during takeoff and landing.
               | 
               | A few people and a hundred drones launched from a few km
               | away can significantly delay incoming and outgoing
               | flights.
               | 
               | Equip the drones with weapons - or larger explosives -
               | and it's potentially Pearl Harbour.
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | That's kind of reductive. I know some people who have,
               | uh, relevant experience. The cheap drones are pretty
               | comprehensively engineered and they're complex in the
               | same way that a ballpoint pen is not as trivial to
               | manufacture as it looks.
               | 
               | But yeah, Maginot Military sounds about right.
        
               | ponector wrote:
               | But they engage only big drones. Like reconnaissance
               | Orlan or Zala, maybe lancet. No one is shooting down fpv
               | quadcopters, not yet.
        
               | coretx wrote:
               | Shotguns are being used for that purpose. Single buckshot
               | from the top of a AR barrel are in vogue too. Someone
               | should use a cheap arduino and a mike for aiming and
               | shooting at fpv quadcopters. I really don't understand
               | why that's not here yet. They can literally convert a toy
               | from github.
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | They are "being used" but shotguns are the last line of
               | defense. Good luck stopping a little FPV drone with one.
               | If you do not disable it by 50ft you dead. And you have
               | like 10% odds. Way better than 1% odds you might have
               | with a rifle or nothing but...
               | 
               | Jamming is first line of defense, a million times more
               | effective FWIW.
        
               | ZYbCRq22HbJ2y7 wrote:
               | Source? AFIK, the US trains soldiers in drone
               | countermeasures, small and large.
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb5qMvie9sU
        
           | antonvs wrote:
           | > Duck hunters with shotguns?
           | 
           | Duck Dynasty season 12 is going to be a doozy
        
         | OutOfHere wrote:
         | It's always wrong (in every possible way) to be the first one
         | to engage hostilities. To be morally in the clear, you should
         | always wait for the other side to engage first. If we didn't
         | follow this doctrine, we would've already had a nuclear
         | holocaust. Warmongers and civilization don't mix.
         | 
         | We don't know anything about their capabilities as individual
         | drones or as a cluster of drones. For all you know, when you
         | shoot one, the other ten take that as declaration of war.
        
           | ponector wrote:
           | According to this logic we should wait untill Iran creates a
           | nuke and only then destroy their nuclear facilities, right?
        
             | OutOfHere wrote:
             | We should follow the drones to see where they land, and
             | continue the investigation from there.
             | 
             | There is no evidence that the drones carry WMDs, or that
             | they're dangerous like Iran. If we had reason to believe
             | that the drones are associated with WMDs, then it would be
             | okay to neutralize them, but we don't. Because of false
             | assertions about WMDs, we've already had one unnecessary
             | war in Iraq. How many more do you want?
        
             | binary132 wrote:
             | Why should we attack Iran if they develop a nuclear weapon?
             | That seems pretty unprovoked.
        
         | bagels wrote:
         | Some of these photos are of passenger planes. I think most
         | agree that shooting down passenger planes is bad.
        
           | Aeolun wrote:
           | Also rather hard to accidentally do if you have equipment
           | capable of shooting down aircraft.
        
         | Cthulhu_ wrote:
         | Why? Just follow them and see where they land / head to (they
         | can't fly forever) and ask some questions to the owners.
        
           | alchemist1e9 wrote:
           | supposedly they originate and return to somewhere out in
           | ocean. presumably boats or submarines.
        
             | op00to wrote:
             | Unsubstantiated rumors. I say they come from mole people
             | underground. The same reliable source as your information
             | i'm sure.
        
               | alchemist1e9 wrote:
               | Not confirmed but not unsubstantiated. A coast guard ship
               | filed reports of them both arriving from out at sea and
               | returning to sea. Also several local sheriffs have
               | observed the same.
               | 
               | The War Zone is always a reliable source for national
               | security related reporting -
               | 
               | https://www.twz.com/news-features/coast-guard-ship-
               | stalked-b...
               | 
               | I feel this story from them would have been a better post
               | for HN audiences.
        
         | op00to wrote:
         | Nothing these drones are doing are illegal.
        
       | soared wrote:
       | Bit concerning that no government agencies have figured out
       | what's going on, but hardly seems like there is a reason for a
       | limited state of emergency given there is no known threat at all.
       | 
       | My guess is a US company is gathering data and hasn't admitted to
       | do so without some type of licensing/etc
        
         | potato3732842 wrote:
         | >My guess is a US company is gathering data and hasn't admitted
         | to do so without some type of licensing/etc
         | 
         | My guess is "Flowers By Irene" or more likely someone
         | contracted to do stuff on their behalf for optics/politics
         | reasons. Real companies that do drone stuff are pretty by the
         | book because they know the fed crosshairs are on them.
        
           | neuroelectron wrote:
           | That's my impression as well. They could be tracking
           | individuals or materials of interest coming from the ports
           | which is why they're over NJ specifically.
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | That's the beauty of things like this. Most local
         | municipalities are just not equipped for this type of
         | situation. The feds are, but the locals have to become aware,
         | realize they can't do anything, and then request help. A mayor
         | calls the governor, the governor calls the feds. That's the
         | hierarchy, and that's pretty much what happened.
        
         | thephyber wrote:
         | There was an article 1-2 days ago saying that one was in the
         | area of a LifeFlight helicopter, preventing the safe operation
         | of that medical transport. There has been a threat articulated.
         | It may not be a true report and the response may not be
         | proportional/appropriate to the threat, but to say there is
         | zero threat is wrong.
         | 
         | Also, reportedly these are the size of SUVs. I don't believe
         | you need that much of an investment for "gathering data".
        
           | Amezarak wrote:
           | Things like that happen all the time.
           | 
           | https://www.faa.gov/uas/resources/public_records/uas_sightin.
           | ..
           | 
           | Keep in mind most of this stuff never gets reported.
        
             | thephyber wrote:
             | Yet this incident has happened several days in short
             | succession in highly populated states/areas, and police
             | have made public statements about this particular offender
             | multiple times.
             | 
             | Once it gets some media traction / popular mindshare, it's
             | more likely to get policy makers to try and do something,
             | even if that is a "limited state of emergency".
        
           | engineer_22 wrote:
           | > Also, reportedly these are the size of SUVs. I don't
           | believe you need that much of an investment for "gathering
           | data".
           | 
           | A drone of such size has larger payload, further range and
           | greater persistence than a smaller craft. Since the operator
           | hasn't been identified we don't have an answer to their
           | mission yet.
           | 
           | Mystery drones this size have been a story in other areas in
           | the USA over the preceding year without as much attention.
           | They were never identified, and a motive never ascertained.
        
         | jazzyjackson wrote:
         | Do you presume government agencies just always know what's
         | going on everywhere? I'm not the least surprised that the
         | government hasn't spent any resources finding out who's flying
         | drones around if they haven't caused any damage or been in
         | airspace they're not allowed to be in.
        
         | bigiain wrote:
         | > Bit concerning that no government agencies have figured out
         | what's going on
         | 
         | I wouldn't be betting against this being a government agency.
         | Anywhere between local cops and black/budgetless agencies you'd
         | go to jail for even having heard of.
         | 
         | That, or maybe organised crime. A friend of mine used to have
         | what turned out to be a high level drug dealer living/working a
         | few doors up the street. They'd fly DJI drones off the balcony
         | and hover them where they could monitor the roads leading in
         | and out of the area, presumably watching for cops. One night an
         | unexpectedly large amount of unmarked cars all converged on
         | that property, followed about 90 seconds later by about a dozen
         | fully lit up and sirening cop cars. The occupants of the first
         | batch of unmarked cars swept up about 8 people running away
         | when the lit up marked cars turned into the street.
        
           | BobaFloutist wrote:
           | > black/budgetless agencies you'd go to jail for even having
           | heard of.
           | 
           | Well stop telling people about them!!!
        
             | j_bum wrote:
             | Quick, how do I unread that comment??
        
           | ct0 wrote:
           | Quite a lot of detail coming from a friend who had a
           | neighbor.
        
         | EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK wrote:
         | With amounts of cameras everywhere I'd thought it would be easy
         | to spot.
        
         | op00to wrote:
         | What makes you think that they don't know? Isn't it common for
         | the military to lie about what they know?
        
       | LinuxBender wrote:
       | Seems like an opportunity for a training exercise. Have the FAA
       | put a TFR in place and let the national guard interdict, ECW and
       | such. Take control, land it in the x-ray scanner, check for
       | explosives then take it apart and get telemetry data. The US
       | taught Ukraine how to do this with great success. If no joy on
       | ECW, disassemble them in the sky.
       | 
       | If the drones were legit they would be broadcasting their ID as
       | would the controllers and they would be within visible range
       | unless they have the approved part 107 on file _or part 107
       | waiver_ and approval for long range drone usage.
       | 
       | If these are not really drones and it is just mass hysteria the
       | national guard would rule that out rather fast. As a bonus there
       | is no added cost to the tax payer _aside from the small fuel
       | expense to route around the TFR which pilots are accustom to._
       | This is just swapping out one training exercise with another.
        
         | talldayo wrote:
         | Some action is already being taken; supposedly the GREMLIN
         | program is being rolled out in areas where sightings are most
         | common: https://taskandpurpose.com/news/military-ufo-gremlin/
         | 
         | > If no joy on ECW, disassemble them in the sky.
         | 
         | I disagree, for the same reason the US doesn't send an SM-6 up
         | to greet every plane without an IFF turned on. It's an
         | expensive exercise in endangering human lives, not a valiant
         | defense of homeland security. Understanding the battlespace is
         | a crucial part of modern warfare and soldiers aren't going to
         | blind-fire on a weird drone unless it presents an immediate,
         | credible threat.
         | 
         | Take the AIM-120s off your F-16 and put a FLIR pod on it, track
         | the drones to wherever they land. Record the platform, dazzle
         | it if it's got cameras or EO sensors, and send a few decoys out
         | if you want to bait it into revealing last-resort defenses
         | against a JDAM-like weapon. _Then_ , you destroy it. Hell, if
         | it's an unmanned naval platform you could also just send a
         | couple Marines out in a Chinook to lift it to the Pentagon.
         | America's weapons are nice, but we can do a lot more than just
         | blow stuff up.
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | F-16 seems like overkill for a drone. Send up the Apaches.
           | 
           | Let's not forget it took how many sidewinders to take down
           | the Chinese balloon? More than 1 makes someone look foolish.
        
             | talldayo wrote:
             | You send in a supersonic fighter because no conventional
             | drone is going to escape it. Dogfighting it isn't
             | necessary, it's doubtful they'd detect you at all if your
             | fighter is loitering at 10,000ft. Eventually the drone is
             | going to run out of power, and you can keep sending more
             | fighters to relieve whichever jet is on duty (if
             | necessary).
             | 
             | Apaches are cool and all, but if cost is your concern then
             | it's probably cheaper to send a single pilot in a single-
             | seat F-16 even if the avgas costs more. Even if you gotta
             | wait 4 hours for your target to go home, it's still
             | probably cheaper than a single AMRAAM.
        
               | YZF wrote:
               | Drones are generally too slow and have too small of a
               | radar footprint to engage with a fighter jet. Helicopters
               | are a better tool. Unless they're very large drones than
               | most missiles on the jet won't really be applicable. You
               | can't shoot down a tiny front with radar or heat seeking
               | missiles.
        
               | justin66 wrote:
               | What it would come down to is that an Air National Guard
               | unit is well prepared to intercept something in the sky
               | (although a slow, low flying drone might be tricky). It's
               | pretty extreme to actually do that, of course, and just
               | observing the thing would always be an option.
               | 
               | An Army National Guard unit might have Apaches available,
               | but putting one in the air in short order to perform air
               | intercepts is not their mission.
        
             | BWStearns wrote:
             | A 30mm round plowing through someone's living room because
             | some bath water IQ nitwit thought they saw an alien is not
             | a valid use of government resources. Even if they're from
             | Jersey.
        
             | buildsjets wrote:
             | F-16s are commonly used as drones. They are called QF-16s.
             | https://www.airforce-technology.com/news/boeing-delivers-
             | las...
        
       | mkmk wrote:
       | A practical question, beyond the questions of whose drones these
       | are: what are they looking for?
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | They're just looking for the Situation or Snooki out on the
         | Shore. Someone forgot to tell them what decade it is.
        
           | yard2010 wrote:
           | The Situation always reminds me of Date Mike. "I'm date mike!
           | How do you like your eggs in the morning?" is something he
           | would definitely say.
        
         | TheBlight wrote:
         | Presumably something with a heat signature since they're
         | operating at night.
        
         | colechristensen wrote:
         | The most plausible explanation is that people who know nothing
         | are in hysterics over legally operated and licensed aircraft.
         | 
         | ATC has radar, military bases have radar. If there were
         | threats, they would see them and do something about them. Folks
         | are reporting to their state senators? and some whacky
         | congressmen have said some absurd things, but no one who is
         | actually responsible cares and folks are trying to spin it like
         | they're clueless.
         | 
         | This is the equivalent of calling the FBI because you're a
         | pepperpot and you saw someone you didn't recognize walking down
         | the street.
         | 
         | Drones near sensitive power infrastrucure... like those
         | transmission sites will all the equipment are all over the
         | place. And police stations? Give me a break.
         | 
         | There's probably some unlicensed or amateur operators doing
         | slightly inappropriate things, but silly people are trying to
         | frame it like some kind of attack.
         | 
         | Also some of them are certainly just ordinary airplanes.
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | ATC and military bases only have primary radar covering a
           | tiny fraction of US territory. Most of what people think of
           | as radar relies on active transponders to work. Or it's ADS-B
           | output and not radar at all.
        
         | bluescrn wrote:
         | Social media impressions/likes.
         | 
         | That's usually what drone videos are for, isn't it?
        
       | aaron695 wrote:
       | How strange we get great footage out of Ukraine but no one in New
       | Jersey can get a photo that's not shakey rubbish that looks like
       | an airplane, or helicopter or Xmas lights or Sasquatch walking
       | down the street with a glow in the dark cock ring.
       | 
       | Mustn't have the latest cellphone? I hear smart phones have
       | cameras. They sound as good with technology as HN commentators.
        
       | apcragg wrote:
       | The photos I've seen posted look very obviously like commercial
       | airliners and helicopters with their navigation lights on. You
       | can even make out the American Airlines livery on the tail!
       | 
       | https://www.app.com/story/news/local/new-jersey/2024/12/11/d...
        
         | _djo_ wrote:
         | Same. This is a ridiculous mass hysteria driven by media
         | sensationalism and ignorant members of the public.
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | Just out of curiosity, I took a look at the map for Spring
           | Lake, NJ. There's an airport ~7 miles inland. There's a
           | national guard center just to the south. Just to the north,
           | there's Sylvan Lake that looks like the profile of a
           | jetliner.
           | 
           | What's this got to do with anything? Nothing, but it's no
           | less of an explanation than what these people have proposed.
        
           | fourteenfour wrote:
           | Lol, also rep. Jeff Van Drew claiming without evidence that
           | the drones are coming from an Iranian mothership off the
           | coast.
        
             | gowld wrote:
             | In his defense, he is a Cold War relic.
        
               | sitkack wrote:
               | He was 20 in 1973, that doesn't qualify as a CW relic.
               | Not even a curio.
        
               | ipsum2 wrote:
               | Relic from the Cold war, not a relic at the time of the
               | cold war.
        
               | anigbrowl wrote:
               | It still doesn't make sense. He was elected to Congress
               | in 2018, long after the end of the Cold War. I think GP
               | is just mixing him up with someone else.
        
             | 0cf8612b2e1e wrote:
             | Something tells me that if there were so much as an Iranian
             | dinghy sitting off the coast, the military would be
             | extremely aware of its presence. Monitoring absolutely
             | everything that it did.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | what/who ever that something is that is telling you that,
               | i'd suggest a better source. it is part of the "game"
               | that militaries the world over try to do things without
               | their opponents knowing they were ever there.
               | international boundaries are 12 miles of water, yet navy
               | submarines get much much closer than that as a matter of
               | course.
               | 
               | do you think the military or any 3 letter agency knows
               | 100% where all foreign spies are within their borders?
        
               | bhk wrote:
               | Something tells me that if there were a bus-sized Chinese
               | spy balloon floating all the way across the continental
               | US, the military would be extremely aware of its
               | presence.
               | 
               | (As I recall they were, but they would not publicly
               | acknowledge it until the public sightings became
               | undeniable.)
        
             | shagie wrote:
             | One of the channels that I follow is "What is Going on With
             | Shipping" (its mostly about ocean going supply chain things
             | and started with the Evergiven)... and today's video is:
             | War of the Jersey Shore! | Did Iranian Navy Carriers Launch
             | Drones Over the New Jersey? - https://youtu.be/hTpYN70tZ6Y
             | 
             | And since this is a "the Iranian mothership off the coast"
             | - the info about where the drone carriers are is presented.
             | 
             | The video discretion links to other sites with info.
             | 
             | https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/1866922032681652322
             | 
             | > Iran has two drone carrier vessels; the SHAHID BAGHERI
             | and the SHAHID MAHDAVI. Both are located in the anchorage
             | of Shahid Bahonar, Iran.
             | 
             | > We know this because we are looking at them right now.
        
             | IAmGraydon wrote:
             | Yes and where did he even get this from? Why do we have
             | representatives literally making up stories and telling
             | them to the American public? What is actually going on
             | here?
        
               | anigbrowl wrote:
               | Probably just made it up. He's a naked opportunist and
               | there's no penalty in the GOP (or arguably in Congress in
               | general) for being a shameless liar.
        
             | bhk wrote:
             | "...without evidence..."
             | 
             | What he claimed was "high" (high-level, I assume, rather
             | than intoxicated) and "reputable" sources who needed to
             | remain anonymous told him there was circumstantial evidence
             | of this.
             | 
             | I don't see any motive for him to make this up, or for
             | those sources to. Perhaps someone in some agency is jumping
             | to conclusions on partial information.
             | 
             | Or perhaps this fits into the pattern of DoD officials, ex-
             | officials, and whistleblowers spinning tales of UAP
             | sightings and an official UAP retrieval program.
        
               | ZYbCRq22HbJ2y7 wrote:
               | > I don't see any motive for him to make this up
               | 
               | To get people to pay attention to him?
        
               | StanislavPetrov wrote:
               | >I don't see any motive for him to make this up, or for
               | those sources to.
               | 
               | To whip up more hysteria against Iran?
        
               | bhk wrote:
               | Maybe. There's a pattern there, too. For example:
               | 
               | https://x.com/mtracey/status/1855682527756697724
        
             | LAC-Tech wrote:
             | Jaff Van Drew is endorsed by AIPAC and has received just
             | over $100k from them.
        
           | postalrat wrote:
           | Is that your gut feeling or do you know something the
           | government isn't willing to reveal?
        
             | antonvs wrote:
             | It's essentially a null hypothesis. There doesn't seem to
             | be any actual evidence of anything. It's all based on
             | social media posts. It shows all the signs of being a mass
             | panic.
             | 
             | The OP article put it like this:
             | 
             | > It is not known whether a group or individual might be
             | behind the phenomenon, or whether any credible issue even
             | exists - there has been speculation that the flurry of
             | activity might merely amount to confusion over sightings of
             | regular planes or be the product of social media
             | distortions.
             | 
             | If you think there's some real issue here, can you explain
             | _why_ you think that?
        
               | ungreased0675 wrote:
               | Other than social media, what other sources could the
               | public rely on for something like this? Would local law
               | enforcement observations suffice? What else would be
               | publicly available?
        
           | labster wrote:
           | The AA livery just means it's a false flag attack. Truly, we
           | haven't seen such an invasion in Grover's Mill, New Jersey
           | since 1938.
        
             | ANewFormation wrote:
             | I do wonder how many will get the reference.
        
               | hindsightbias wrote:
               | The Red Lectoids were real!
        
           | j_timberlake wrote:
           | Did you post this before or after taking the 10 seconds
           | necessary to look up the Pentagon and White House responses
           | to this, or the FBI's?
        
             | _djo_ wrote:
             | After. They're responding to the public and media uproar,
             | and have to be seen as taking action in response to it, but
             | they're clearly not massively concerned.
             | 
             | I don't doubt that there was some drone activity, but most
             | likely it was regularly authorised operations or testing.
             | Once the hysteria started you may have a few pranksters
             | flying theirs just to add to the uproar.
             | 
             | But when media houses are publishing pictures of what are
             | _clearly_ commercial airliners and passing them off as
             | unidentified drones you know we 're in the middle of a mass
             | hysteria moment.
        
           | mnky9800n wrote:
           | Perhaps its satanic ritualists turned techo-optimists who are
           | attempting to convert the public to their baby killing ways
           | through drone-based mind control.
        
         | gowld wrote:
         | Which picture has the AA livery visible?
        
           | apcragg wrote:
           | 6 and 7. If you squint and lean on a bit of confirmation
           | bias, photo 9 looks like a commercial airliner with the
           | Alaska Airlines livery.
        
             | gowld wrote:
             | Ah. Knowing what AA tails look like makes it look likely
             | that the blurry triangle has blue and red in the right
             | places.
             | 
             | Without context, it does appear to be a quadcopter-ish
             | shape, but since the caption says the object was at high
             | altitude, it fits a regular airplane well.
             | 
             | People live on site watching the object move should
             | certainly know better. (Perhaps they do know, and are
             | intentionally trolling.)
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | > People live on site watching the object move should
               | 
               | Be careful here. Human eye witnesses are not reliable,
               | especially at night like this. It is very hard to
               | determine size of shapes at night in the dark. It is hard
               | to determine distance which makes something small look
               | like it might be bigger but further away.
        
               | wat10000 wrote:
               | I think "hard" is underselling it. Unless you already
               | know some of the parameters, it is outright impossible to
               | visually determine size, distance, or speed of a distant
               | object in the sky. So many UFO accounts completely fall
               | apart when you realize this.
        
             | murderfs wrote:
             | I think photos 2 and 9 are actually JetBlue. There weren't
             | any Alaska flights in the area at the time [1], but there
             | were two JetBlue planes flying in the area, before and
             | after an American Airlines jet. If the images were posted
             | in the same order they were taken, this would fit
             | perfectly.
             | 
             | 1: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?replay=2024-12-09-01:33&
             | lat=...
        
           | carabiner wrote:
           | AA = American Airlines
           | 
           | AS = Alaska Airlines
        
         | nimbius wrote:
         | this would be relatively easy to solve with historical ADS-B
         | data correlated to the time and date of the spottings.
         | 
         | https://adsb.lol/
        
           | apcragg wrote:
           | AAL578 flew by Tom's River (Bay Shore area, where the photos
           | were taken) around 20:43 on December 8th which is right when
           | the photos were taking, on a heading that would result in an
           | observing on the ground looking at the port side of the
           | aircraft, just as seen in the picture.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | I've been waiting for the fans of FlightAware type places
             | to start posting their findings.
        
         | daemonologist wrote:
         | Yeah that's very clearly a helicopter in most of the photos,
         | and the rest could easily be an airliner. At most it might be
         | some knucklehead with an old RC helicopter in violation of FAA
         | regs (flying at night, no remote ID).
         | 
         | If you were some foreign adversary why would you put navigation
         | lights on your secret reconnaissance drone?
        
           | 650REDHAIR wrote:
           | That's my favorite part of this mass hysteria.
           | 
           | Why would they have nav lights on?! Any lights...
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | Clearly, my spy craft isn't a spy craft. Look, it has
             | lights on it for Pete's sake.
             | 
             | Plausible deniability
        
               | netsharc wrote:
               | It'd be more clever to have lights and leave them
               | unilluminated. If caught they can still claim what you're
               | claiming, adding "You just didn't see them!".
        
             | genewitch wrote:
             | i mentioned elsewhere but if you had a large octocopter
             | (think like 8' across) you could fashion lights to it to
             | imitate other aircraft, like nose and tail and wing
             | markers. My DJI has a front and rear light, the rear one
             | blinks two colors so you know which side is which, my older
             | DJI clone had lights on all four rotors, different colors
             | between front and back (green and red? or am i confusing
             | boat markers, haha).
             | 
             | If i wanted to freak a bunch of people out i'd start my
             | design like this, at least. Some aircraft can fly really
             | slow (biplanes, for instance), but the videos i saw of
             | ostensibly these aircraft they were moving too slow to be
             | actual fixed wing aircraft of the shape the were implied to
             | be by the lights. But who knows if the videos were doctored
             | (cropping would fool my brain about relative speeds), or
             | even of the aircraft we're talking about? I didn't save
             | them so i got no idea, sadly.
        
             | roflyear wrote:
             | Well, let's say they are spy craft - seems the "it's not
             | real" narrative is working, no?
        
             | amyfp214 wrote:
             | My favorite part is the part when they say "Aha! It's
             | camoflauge! It LOOKS like an aeroplane but in fact it's a
             | disguise!". I mean, what's next, a helicopter is chasing a
             | drone and they say "Aha! The alien craft has disguised
             | itself as one of our helicopters chasing one of our drones,
             | who would suspect that!"
             | 
             | Anyway the non-alien conspiracy theories are along the
             | lines of radiation sniffers for a suitcase nuke, drone
             | tests for material transport between bases & offshore navy
             | ships, red team vs blue team drone tests.
        
         | jklinger410 wrote:
         | There is more evidence here than just pictures from this one
         | article.
         | 
         | The pentagon, for example, just declared that they do not know
         | what they are[1]. Among many other credible sources.
         | 
         | [1]https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/1hc1l58/pentagon_no_e
         | ...
        
           | antonvs wrote:
           | > There is more evidence here than just pictures from this
           | one article.
           | 
           | What "more evidence"?
           | 
           | All the Pentagon is saying is that there's _no_ evidence
           | that's a foreign entity is behind it. Not "more" evidence.
        
             | sitkack wrote:
             | Can you or can you not draw a red line with a blue pen?
        
               | sitkack wrote:
               | The Expert (Short Comedy Sketch)
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
               | 
               | It was a comment on the inability of half of this thread
               | to use basic logic.
        
           | Amezarak wrote:
           | > The pentagon, for example, just declared that they do not
           | know what they are[1].
           | 
           | This sounds impressive, but people don't seem to realize that
           | there is no USGOV tracking of drone-sized objects in US
           | airspace. Of course they can't say who is doing it or where
           | they're coming from, they also don't know what's going on
           | when you launch a drone from your backyard and fly it around.
           | 
           | The FAA has a database of reports of people illegally flying
           | drones around planes and airports, it's been happening
           | constantly since they've been mass market items and the perps
           | rarely get caught.
        
             | bragr wrote:
             | >people don't seem to realize that there is no USGOV
             | tracking of drone-sized objects
             | 
             | Anything 250g or heavier has to have Remote ID now. Now
             | that doesn't exclude the possibility of illegal drones
             | without it, but it isn't true that there is "no drone
             | tracking".
             | 
             | https://www.faa.gov/uas/getting_started/remote_id
             | 
             | https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-14/chapter-I/subchapter-
             | F...
        
               | op00to wrote:
               | What do you think Drone ID is? It's basically Bluetooth
               | transmissions. Very localized reception and basically
               | impossible to monitor over a wide area without many, many
               | receivers spread out evenly all over the place.
        
               | 15155 wrote:
               | Who exactly is enforcing this law in reality?
        
               | echoangle wrote:
               | Unless there are also receivers for this operated by the
               | government, that's technically not a conflict with the
               | claim. Tracking means you're tracking something, not just
               | forcing them to send a signal. It's only tracking once
               | you receive and process the signal.
        
           | pavel_lishin wrote:
           | > _The pentagon, for example, just declared that they do not
           | know what they are_
           | 
           | That is absolutely not what was said in that video. They just
           | said that they're not drones from a foreign entity or
           | adversary, nor are they US military drones.
        
             | chrisco255 wrote:
             | Could they be defense contractor drones being tested?
        
           | block_dagger wrote:
           | The Pentagon - credible!? Ha.
        
           | mrandish wrote:
           | > The pentagon, for example, just declared that they do not
           | know what they are
           | 
           | I often hear those hyping UFO sightings citing this type of
           | statement by the Pentagon. However, the Pentagon saying the
           | don't know what it is doesn't mean anything. Of course, they
           | don't know what it is. They weren't there. They didn't see it
           | nor have any idea if there was anything unusual seen. The
           | null hypothesis is the still the most likely: this is a
           | result of media hype causing increased erroneous reports of
           | aircraft and hobbyist drones along with false reports by
           | social media attention seekers.
           | 
           | Also, the Pentagon has a consistently terrible track record
           | of failing to properly identify spurious internal lens
           | reflections, digital stabilization artifacts, IR ghosting and
           | gimbal rotation on their own footage.
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsEjV8DdSbs.
        
           | mrguyorama wrote:
           | The pentagon also didn't tell anyone in the 80s that all the
           | "UFO sightings" in Nevada were test flights of the F-117.
           | 
           | You know the pentagon doesn't have to tell you (or even the
           | feds!) the truth, right? You know that when they say "We
           | can't track 1 trillion dollars of our budget!" they aren't
           | being fully honest, right?
        
         | gradus_ad wrote:
         | I live in NJ. I've seen these drones. They are not commercial
         | airliners or helicopters. They are loud, fly low and slow, and
         | make abrupt turns unlike any planes I've seen. Their lights are
         | also very different from other aircraft.
         | 
         | I can see how it's tempting to chalk this up to hysteria, but
         | they are absolutely large drones of some kind.
        
           | Aeolun wrote:
           | At least 6 out of 10 images in the linked article are clearly
           | commercial aircraft.
        
             | abuani wrote:
             | And those other 4 out of 10 are very clearly not commercial
             | airlines. I live in NJ was very skeptical of this at first,
             | but after seeing the same patterns 5 nights in a row for
             | aircrafts not going towards Newark, I really have a hard
             | time believing it is simply airlines.
        
               | Aeolun wrote:
               | Sure, I'm not saying there's nothing, but there's clearly
               | some component of hysteria.
        
               | abuani wrote:
               | Oh, very much so some elements of mass hysteria. It took
               | the better part of two weeks for authorities to recognize
               | it, then it was "nothing to see here", then FBI is
               | investigating. It sucks that one of our state
               | representatives is out their claiming it's Iran and
               | stoking further tensions.
               | 
               | My personal feeling is if it was enemy drones, our
               | military would have already taken them down. It's hard to
               | imagine we'd let this go on for many weeks without a
               | response. But it's also hard to imagine military testing
               | so obviously over public space. So who knows lol
        
               | llamaimperative wrote:
               | > My personal feeling is if it was enemy drones, our
               | military would have already taken them down
               | 
               | I think you overestimate a few things here... the
               | military isn't constantly monitoring all airspace across
               | the country for drone-sized objects and shooting things
               | down if they don't recognize them.
               | 
               | Perhaps they should be as we enter this brave new world
               | of drone-everything, but they don't right now.
        
               | abuani wrote:
               | NJ has some of the leading research centers for the US
               | military, our new president's second estate, and critical
               | infrastructure for telecommunications. Reportedly drones
               | were flying close to all of these spots. I would fully
               | expect our military to be monitoring these parts of the
               | country for drone-sized objects given how effective they
               | have been in waging our wars the past 20 years. So yeah,
               | it's a massive intelligence failure if these are
               | combatant drones.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | ahem, our president-elect. he is not the new president,
               | yet.
        
               | vaxman wrote:
               | 20 years lol Off by a factor of 2.5x, but your
               | expectation is reasonable --so is having a Defense
               | Secretary that tells his staff when he's checking into
               | the hospital for a serious medical condition and an
               | airspace that doesn't allow balloons to get within range
               | of broadcasting firmware updates to ESP32s.
               | 
               | https://www.app.com/story/news/local/new-
               | jersey/2024/12/11/d...
        
               | ZYbCRq22HbJ2y7 wrote:
               | > Abichandani has no idea as of now whether the drones
               | over New Jersey are swarming drones.
               | 
               | Then this article goes on to speculate about scary
               | things.
        
               | vaxman wrote:
               | ..and Abichandani is reported to be an actual academic
               | (in drone swarming technology) at a prestigious
               | university that is local to the observations, not an
               | enthusiast or politician!
               | 
               | In next room, I have a nearly 100yo man who, in a small
               | group of people using computers with (literal) core
               | memory, invented the technology, satellites and delivery
               | systems to do Reconnaissance from orbit and more
               | importantly, to spot the first signatures of arial
               | weapons systems, yet downvoted here in the dystopian
               | future when I merely correct the peanut gallery for
               | spreading obvious fiction that America's ability to spot
               | drones does not go back further than 20 years (or that
               | the internal proprietary code of the latest ESP32 series
               | Chinese MCUs has the well known ability to receive
               | firmware updates via RF, even from Chinese balloons,
               | Chinese LEO Starlink competitors and yes, drones).
        
               | ZYbCRq22HbJ2y7 wrote:
               | > Abichandani is reported to be an actual academic
               | 
               | He pretty much says nothing, and the article uses him as
               | a mouth piece to give other individuals mentioned
               | legitimacy.
        
               | llamaimperative wrote:
               | I don't disagree with any of this. Obviously drones are
               | an extremely real intelligence and actual security threat
               | that we clearly don't know how to handle.
        
               | obmelvin wrote:
               | The military isn't allowed to shoot down drones in the
               | US. There was a WSJ story last month about drones flying
               | over Langley for 2 weeks. All the general could do is
               | stand on the roof and watch
        
               | ANewFormation wrote:
               | Yeah they can only shoot down unidentified weather
               | balloons.
        
               | bee_rider wrote:
               | IIRC there were multiple instances of the balloons and
               | the one they shot down was intentionally shot down in a
               | relatively safe area.
        
               | ANewFormation wrote:
               | They shot down at least 3 including one that 100%
               | belonged to a local club, meaning the military had no
               | clue what they were launching missiles at. One was shot
               | down over Lake Huron, and the pilot actually even managed
               | to miss the balloon with his missile. It's like 99 Red
               | Balloons meets Idiocracy.
               | 
               | Obviously the military can shoot down whatever they want,
               | let alone use EM tech, which is highly effective at
               | grounding drones. Drones keep getting sighted near the
               | exact areas that would be testing out drone
               | militarization, and not getting shot down. Gee, I wonder
               | who's they might be.
               | 
               | People would be so dramatically more informed if they
               | dropped social media and corporate news.
        
               | ericjmorey wrote:
               | He's the one that got elected as a Democratic candidate
               | and switched to the Republican party about a month after
               | he was elected.
        
               | _Wintermute wrote:
               | Reminds me of the hysteria we had about drones shutting
               | down an airport in the UK, with loads of reported
               | sightings yet no evidence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
               | Gatwick_Airport_drone_incident
        
               | hersko wrote:
               | It's not hysteria if UFOs start showing up en-masse and
               | then people start thinking everything in the sky is a
               | UFO. It just means people are more likely to attribute
               | lights in the night sky to this new phenomenon. Of course
               | there will be false positives, but it does not mean the
               | underlying issue exists.
        
               | wbl wrote:
               | Which ones clearly aren't that or a police helicopter?
        
               | ricksunny wrote:
               | There is supposed to be an elemwent of 'mimicry' on the
               | part of the Phenomenon. Kelleher in his work with AAWSAP
               | was the most vocal in studying & concluding that aspect:
               | 
               | https://www.rdrnews.com/opinion/columnists/drones-
               | mimicry-an...
        
               | lxgr wrote:
               | I'm very sorry, as it's probably a perfectly respectable
               | local news source, but: Did you just link a Roswell
               | newspaper article on UFOs? :)
        
               | mp05 wrote:
               | Stop believing your lying eyes for they deceive you.
               | 
               | Here, read this, it will calm your nerves.
        
               | bee_rider wrote:
               | Most of us have not actually seen these things. We've
               | just seen social media posts about them.
        
               | murderfs wrote:
               | I believe the other 3 pictures are this helicopter: https
               | ://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ab19fa&lat=39.865&lon=-..
               | .
               | 
               | Image 8 is too blurry to make out, but it's probably also
               | a plane.
        
               | sandos wrote:
               | I would agree with that! It matches the curvature of the
               | fuselage in one point, and there is an image with faintly
               | visible nav lights on this page:
               | 
               | https://www.anthelionhelicopters.com/flight-training/add-
               | on-...
               | 
               | which matches the images as well, with the green light
               | bright, so its likely flying head-on in the picture.
        
               | toofy wrote:
               | why hasn't someone got decent pictures to back this up
               | after five nights?
        
               | roflyear wrote:
               | The drones only operate at night and it's hard taking
               | good pictures at night with phones (or even nice cameras)
               | - try to take a picture of the moon, which isn't moving,
               | is brighter, etc.. you can tell it's the moon but it's a
               | lot quality picture.
        
               | Aeolun wrote:
               | Drones are a lot closer than the moon. I'm fairly certain
               | my middle of the line camera can do better than what I
               | see on that article.
        
               | gloflo wrote:
               | Drones are small while the moon is far away.
        
               | roflyear wrote:
               | Why argue online? Just try to take a picture outside of a
               | streetlight, or something, in a dark area. You'll see
               | what I mean.
        
               | motorest wrote:
               | > And those other 4 out of 10 are very clearly not
               | commercial airlines.
               | 
               | Cool, so a simple cursory glance of these mysterious
               | phenomena is enough to immediately call bullshit on 60%
               | of the claims.
               | 
               | That's a heck of a false positive rate, given the fact
               | that this happens before any verification takes place.
               | 
               | If at least 60% of the claims given the same credibility
               | are outright rejected without any effort, what does it
               | say about the claims and those who make them?
        
             | bluescrn wrote:
             | If it's got bright lights on it, it's very unlikely to be
             | espionage.
        
               | moralestapia wrote:
               | Hiding in plain sight is also a thing.
        
               | numbsafari wrote:
               | So is sowing mass hysteria and deepening distrust in
               | authorities.
        
               | bee_rider wrote:
               | It sucks that we have to worry that our normally silly
               | and harmless UFO hysteria and other fringe stuff might
               | actually be an influence operation. (Just because tone
               | doesn't go well over the internet sometimes: Not
               | disagreeing or being sarcastic, commiserating).
        
               | mschuster91 wrote:
               | Well that's the natural result of not doing anything
               | meaningful against Russia and its "plausible deniability"
               | campaigns in well over a decade. Of course Russia and
               | China feel emboldened when they never felt consequences.
        
             | highcountess wrote:
             | But they got you to click and flip through the slides
        
             | StanislavPetrov wrote:
             | As someone who lives in New York near two very busy
             | airports, I can assure you that after seeing dozens of
             | planes fly over my house every hour, year after year, it
             | isn't hard to figure out what isn't a plane.
        
           | philosopher1234 wrote:
           | Are there any recordings to back up your story?
        
           | walrus01 wrote:
           | Under what circumstances and motivations, exactly, do you
           | think that unlicensed and illegal (clearly not FAA Part 107
           | compliant) drone operators would be motivated to put blinking
           | white, red and green lights on their mystery drones? Why
           | would they do that?
           | 
           | If you're doing to build a drone to fly at night and do
           | clearly illegal things you're going to make the thing matte
           | black and have no lights on it whatsoever.
        
             | 0cf8612b2e1e wrote:
             | Or disguise them as birds.
             | 
             | https://www.newsweek.com/china-shows-new-drones-disguised-
             | bi...
        
             | ddtaylor wrote:
             | It would allow for different configurations to make
             | identification harder. It's very easy to only operate at
             | night and swap out the color and pattern of the lights
             | constantly. Almost every photo device would capture the
             | light pattern the attacker WANTS them to capture. High
             | quality equipment could get better pictures, but such
             | equipment is often not rolling 24/7 or easy to point at a
             | drone moving fast.
        
             | op00to wrote:
             | What's not part 107 compliant? All the activity I've heard
             | was fully legal.
        
               | walrus01 wrote:
               | For starters, you need special waivers from the faa to
               | fly at night. If any such waivers existed, I am sure the
               | FAA would have told the news media who are hyping up this
               | story.
        
               | 15155 wrote:
               | This has not been the case for years.
               | 
               | https://www.faa.gov/uas/commercial_operators/operations_o
               | ver...
        
             | mmooss wrote:
             | > blinking white, red and green lights
             | 
             | I feel like I've seen a lot of that this time of year ...
        
           | carabiner wrote:
           | Ok, what configuration are these drones? Quadcopters?
           | 
           | Why are they only flying at night? To evade detection? Then
           | why do they have lights?
        
             | genewitch wrote:
             | The videos i saw ostensibly showed what looked like rear
             | fixed wing aircraft, like a small f-16 or something. But
             | you could only make out that detail from the lights, which
             | can be configured however you want to configure them to
             | look, so, technically, it could be a large quadcopter (or
             | octa, or hex) with lights affixed that make it look like a
             | fixed wing aircraft.
             | 
             | none of the videos i saw had sound from the drone to verify
             | fixed wing or "copter".
             | 
             | regarding night flights, FLIR would work better for certain
             | things at night ;-)
        
               | 05 wrote:
               | > FLIR would work better for certain things at night ;-)
               | 
               | At those distances and with typical thermal imager
               | resolutions, the zoom lens required would cost more than
               | a cheap car..
        
               | genewitch wrote:
               | when i say FLIR i mean the things that militaries use,
               | not the little doodad you plug into a cellphone or a
               | handheld device with a screen and a camera. I was under
               | the impression these things loitered much longer than any
               | commercial quadcopter or normal battery powered aircraft.
               | if my understanding is correct, that leaves two options -
               | a glider, which is weight constrained so probably just a
               | gopro or two, or a fueled aircraft, in which case, FLIR
               | makes sense because that's a decent platform.
               | 
               | the reports were "flying around for hours" but that could
               | be exaggeration and it flew a pattern several times over
               | a couple of hours but was landing to swap batteries or
               | whatever. IDK. I think this is all much ado about
               | nothing.
        
               | semi-extrinsic wrote:
               | Nope, it would cost more than an expensive car.
               | 
               | The only openly available price I've seen for such things
               | is from China, and then it's $80k. The Teledyne FLIR
               | stuff is probably quite a bit more expensive.
        
           | paranoidrobot wrote:
           | "large drones"
           | 
           | How large is "large"?
           | 
           | Some of the articles are claiming "SUV sized" drones, but
           | their photos are either of commercial aircraft, or of
           | something that looks to be a DJI Phantom 4, or something much
           | like it.
           | 
           | Have you managed to capture any videos of images of these
           | large, low flying, slow moving drones?
        
             | toofy wrote:
             | it's amazing how so many people have seen these truck sized
             | drones but they've all somehow failed to get pictures.
             | 
             | i can go outside right now in the dark with this phone i'm
             | typing on and get a solid picture of stuff but somehow they
             | keep showing us pictures that look like 1940s era ufo photo
             | blur.
        
               | roflyear wrote:
               | No you can't - try it. Take a picture of the moon.
        
               | sethammons wrote:
               | careful, you may get an AI moon to make up for the fact
               | you can't really get a good picture of it.
               | 
               | https://www.samsung.com/uk/support/mobile-devices/how-
               | galaxy...
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | The same probably happens with blurry small aircraft in
               | the scene. It'll "upscale" (i.e. draw in) all kinds of
               | objects with what it thinks is most likely from the
               | context, from its training set.
        
               | karamanolev wrote:
               | Probably not with a phone, but "affordable" full-frame
               | MILC/DSLR cameras with 100-400mm or 600mm lenses exist
               | and people have them. Much better chances.
        
               | The_Colonel wrote:
               | This article links photos from a Sony full frame camera
               | and 600mm lens but it clearly struggles:
               | 
               | https://eu.app.com/picture-
               | gallery/news/2024/12/10/drones-in...
        
               | ycombinete wrote:
               | These photos look very much like a helicopter. Especially
               | the fifth photo.
        
               | sandos wrote:
               | Odd, one of those pictures clearly show either a regular
               | RC helicopter, or a full-scale helicopter. You can see
               | the boom and tail light clearly. And no sound associated
               | with it? There are designs for "silent" blades. I mean
               | theyre not silent, bud at least less noisy.
        
               | haswell wrote:
               | Even decently fast glass won't do a good job of capturing
               | drones at night unless there's a significant amount of
               | ambient light.
               | 
               | And telephoto lenses with the range you mention with fast
               | apertures are not exactly cheap. A 600mm F/4 goes for
               | $12-15K and is still not fast enough for shooting moving
               | subjects in the dark.
        
               | theodric wrote:
               | I did find it odd when this news reporter said of the
               | craft "it's really difficult to show you with our camera,
               | so we have to show you with our phones." You'd think a
               | broadcast-grade camera rig would be better than a
               | smartphone at this.
               | 
               | At the 11-second mark: https://youtu.be/M186uZ1RCxU?t=11
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | I can get an acceptable picture of the moon with my phone
               | (at least when autofocus doesn't decide to do something
               | stupid), yet also I can't get good pictures of birds in
               | nearby trees or urban foxes on the other side of the
               | road.
               | 
               | Phone can do night with just hand jitter ok, can't
               | effectively compensate for target motion.
        
               | ZenRiots wrote:
               | In my experience the majority of that 1940s photo blur
               | comes when you crop and zoom what otherwise looks like a
               | beautiful digital photograph. I experienced this quite
               | often when utilizing security cameras to try and read
               | license plates.
               | 
               | Any movement of the vehicle whose plate you are
               | attempting to track creates pixelization requiring you
               | sometimes to stitch together multiple frames where
               | individual characters on the plate have become clear in
               | order to read the entire license plate.
        
               | FuriouslyAdrift wrote:
               | High resolution film can get to the equivalent to 500 MP
               | resolution just in 35mm.
               | 
               | Larger film has insanely high resolving power...
               | 
               | https://www.analog.cafe/r/409200000-pixels-with-adox-
               | cms-20-...
        
               | ninininino wrote:
               | Incorrect, there are dozens or hundreds of video clips
               | showing these drones in both social media and mainstream
               | news.
        
             | op00to wrote:
             | "large" is whatever is scary.
        
           | taylorius wrote:
           | What sort of noise do they make? Do they sound like normal
           | drones?
        
           | JPKab wrote:
           | Nah dude, all of these people in the comments thread who live
           | in northern California and have no knowledge of drones beyond
           | playing with a buddy's DJI one time at a cookout are
           | insisting it's your imagination, and that you're gripped by a
           | mass hysteria.
           | 
           | Who are you gonna believe? Them, or your lying eyes?
        
             | nozzlegear wrote:
             | I don't think your sarcasm adds anything constructive to
             | the discourse. If anything, it makes the person you're
             | replying to look _less_ credible because you 're furthering
             | the stereotype of UFO conspiracy theorists touting "trust
             | me bro" evidence and little else.
        
           | paul7986 wrote:
           | This story is so strange. I mean the US if im not mistaken
           | allowed a huge white ballon to transverse the country and i
           | heard Trump say that was from China. If that's true we just
           | allowed it fly all over our airspace (weird). Is that not a
           | potential public safety hazard and now these things. So odd
           | nothing is being done like one of our jet fighters going up
           | and shooting one down into a field.
        
             | kasey_junk wrote:
             | Shooting things down over populated areas is a public
             | safety issue.
             | 
             | Drones flying about may or may not be.
        
               | paul7986 wrote:
               | Into a large field or farm
        
             | scottyah wrote:
             | It's much more valuable to watch it, see what kind of scans
             | are coming from it than to just shoot it down immediately.
             | It is also a bargaining chip for those in international
             | politics.
             | 
             | If you're going to shoot it down, it has the same value if
             | you do it immediately or later (assuming any remote
             | wiping/detonation), so either you're paranoid that it poses
             | a legitimate threat or it's beneficial to not shoot it down
             | immediately.
        
             | ZYbCRq22HbJ2y7 wrote:
             | > American officials later disclosed that they had been
             | tracking the balloon since it was launched from Hainan and
             | its original destinations were likely Guam and Hawaii,[a]
             | but prevailing winds blew it off course and across North
             | America.[11]
             | 
             | > The Chinese government maintained it was a civilian
             | (mainly meteorological) airship that had been blown off
             | course.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Chinese_balloon_incident
        
             | paul7986 wrote:
             | overall this says the US will allow undenitified drones in
             | our air space and to fly unabated to our enemies ... one of
             | these or future ones could be weaponized. So its
             | unfathomable to me that they we are letting these things
             | fly unabated in our airspace, as well the govt is providing
             | zero info or re-assurance.
        
               | JohnBooty wrote:
               | If we start blasting things out of the sky:
               | 
               | - We certainly can't deny that "something" is happening
               | 
               | - The US, if not the world, is going to be rocked by
               | (basically) open war in the skies of America
               | 
               | - If we fail to down these things, we look like utterly
               | weak fools
               | 
               | - Succeed or fail, we reveal our capabilities (or lack
               | thereof)
               | 
               | - Legit public safety issue, bullets/shells/missiles/etc
               | that miss these things have to come down somewhere, as
               | well as wreckage (if any) it self
               | 
               | These drones, IF hostile are not necessarily the security
               | risk one might think IMO. If we are just leaking radio
               | signals into the air around bases that these things can
               | intercept, then those communications could just as easily
               | be intercepted by people/cars/etc on the ground. And our
               | "near peers" have plenty of satellites overhead.
               | 
               | I am not going to tell you that letting them fly around
               | unmolested is good. It is not. It sucks. But it is
               | probably the least shitty option.
        
               | paul7986 wrote:
               | All our pussy footing around now will look so foolish
               | once these or others attack us. Jesus!
               | 
               | If these are US military and they refuse to acknowlegde
               | such yet now with social media it makes us look stupid,
               | foolish and a target for drone strikes somewhere overhead
               | in all the US of A.
        
               | JohnnyLarue wrote:
               | Because they're not threats, and your 'enemies' are just
               | other countries who have resources your country wants,
               | but won't do what your country says. The calls are coming
               | from inside the house.
        
             | paul7986 wrote:
             | So weird my comments in this thread here are being
             | downvoted a ton.
             | 
             | Those who are downvoting and you are in the US i'd love to
             | hear why you have no concern about these things and or no
             | concern the world thinking we let drones fly unabated in
             | our airspace ... prompting various foreign nations to try
             | and do the same over our massive US of A airspace on up
             | into remote-ish Alaska. You have congressman saying scary
             | things while the Pentagon says those congressman words
             | arent true.
             | 
             | I mentioned Trump above (i voted for her) if that was
             | something that triggered some downvotes?
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _can see how it 's tempting to chalk this up to hysteria,
           | but they are absolutely large drones of some kind_
           | 
           | It's probably neither enemy infiltration or hysteria, but
           | mis-identified drones and aircraft. (Together with some
           | hooliganism.)
           | 
           | Pentagon should investigate. But this is way below the
           | threshold of warranting public alarm. "What is that thing in
           | the sky" is a notoriously terrible game for the public.
        
           | megablast wrote:
           | And you recorded if of course!
        
             | mcphage wrote:
             | If all we had to depend on was cell phone footage, I'm not
             | sure I'd believe the moon existed.
        
           | DebtDeflation wrote:
           | I've been following the story and this has been discussed on
           | the local Reddit subs. They are almost certainly
           | PteroDynamics XP-4 drones flying from and to the military
           | bases in question for testing purposes. There literally was a
           | public demo of them on the USNS Burlington in Philadelphia a
           | year ago.
        
             | senkora wrote:
             | Video of that model of drone: https://www.reddit.com/r/Engi
             | neeringPorn/comments/13juxdi/pt...
        
               | VectorLock wrote:
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kA1ENhxLqTo
        
               | bloopernova wrote:
               | I really like that it switches off the outer pair of
               | propellers in level flight, that's a nice feature.
               | 
               | Changing the vertical alignment of the wings to
               | horizontal after takeoff is also really cool, an
               | interesting alternative to 4 vertical propellers with a
               | separate pair of wings. It seems to eliminate the extra
               | moving parts to control those vertical propellers.
        
               | topspin wrote:
               | Something actually patent-worthy.
        
               | fer wrote:
               | How? it's just a UAV, quad version of a V-22 Osprey.
               | Maybe I'm missing something peculiar about it?
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell_Boeing_V-22_Osprey
        
               | throwaway48476 wrote:
               | The hinge mechanism and the control dynamics.
        
               | topspin wrote:
               | Osprey has a common power shaft between the engines for
               | fault tolerance, constraining the structure's design,
               | such as the lack of dihedral. This has a different set of
               | design constraints and a different solution to propulsion
               | failure.
        
               | matsemann wrote:
               | "just" is doing a lot of work there. Everything is "just"
               | an evolution of something else. Doesn't mean it's not
               | novel or clever.
        
               | rtkwe wrote:
               | The wing folding mechanism is pretty novel as far as I'm
               | aware. The idea of quad hover to forward flight isn't new
               | or unique but the specific configuration is something I
               | haven't seen before. NASA was working on some that tilted
               | the whole wing not this folding design which uses fewer
               | motors compare to the old NASA Greased Lightning test
               | article.
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXql26sF5uc
        
             | j-krieger wrote:
             | HN is yet again amazed that military technology is in fact
             | used to carry out secret operations.
        
           | carabiner wrote:
           | > low and slow
           | 
           | How can you be sure? Are you aware of the speed-size
           | illusion? https://jov.arvojournals.org/article.aspx?articleid
           | =2551105#....
        
           | motorest wrote:
           | > I live in NJ. I've seen these drones. They are not
           | commercial airliners or helicopters. They are loud, fly low
           | and slow, and make abrupt turns unlike any planes I've seen.
           | Their lights are also very different from other aircraft.
           | 
           | You better crank out your camera and collect any proof at
           | all,because what you are describing bears no resemblance to
           | the sightings mentioned in the article.
           | 
           | There is a reason why sightings of supernatural fenomenal
           | went down abruptly with the inception of cheap digital
           | cameras.
        
             | iepathos wrote:
             | For real, with everyone having a smartphone with high
             | quality cameras on them there really is zero excuse for
             | there to not be highly detailed accurate videos of this if
             | they are legit especially with people describing them as
             | "low and slow".
        
               | The_Colonel wrote:
               | The article suggests the drones appear during nighttime
               | with which cameras will struggle. "low" is relative and
               | can mean 200 meters which would be very difficult even
               | for regular cameras (without a tripod), let alone a
               | smartphone.
        
               | jahnu wrote:
               | Even taking a picture of the moon with a typical phone
               | results in a white mushy blob.
        
               | DaiPlusPlus wrote:
               | Unless you have a Samsung phone...
               | 
               | https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/13/23637401/samsung-fake-
               | moo...
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | This technology may well "fill in the blanks" with small
               | flying objects too. Make them look like the most common
               | i.e. airliner or helicopter.
        
               | diggan wrote:
               | I like that parent said "200 meters" and then you give a
               | "even" example with the distance of ~400,000 kilometers
               | :)
        
               | rmbyrro wrote:
               | Compared to the radius of the known Universe, it's in the
               | ballpark
        
               | jahnu wrote:
               | Haha fair enough :D
        
               | xattt wrote:
               | I'll stop you there and say there are videos. They just
               | happen to be of naturally-occurring phenomena and
               | captured by inept operators who don't subscribe to
               | Occam's Razor.
        
               | drjasonharrison wrote:
               | had to look it up, the opposite of Occam's Razor, it is
               | Hickham's Dictum
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hickam%27s_dictum
        
               | matthewdgreen wrote:
               | Smartphone cameras are absolutely useless when it comes
               | to taking useful pictures of distant, moving objects.
               | Even a proper DSLR is extremely difficult to use on a
               | moving object at night due to focus issues.
        
               | kjkjadksj wrote:
               | Not focus issues. Set to infinity it will be fine. But
               | shutter speed issues certainly. When people take sharp
               | photographs at night they generally aren't handholding a
               | camera and shooting a moving subject. And if they are
               | they are close enough to use flash.
        
               | wyager wrote:
               | Tbf, smartphone cameras are not really "high quality" in
               | a way that's useful here. Try taking a video of something
               | with small angular subtension like an aircraft at
               | cruising altitude with a cell phone camera.
        
               | registeredcorn wrote:
               | >with everyone having a smartphone with high quality
               | cameras on them there really is zero excuse for there to
               | not be highly detailed accurate videos of this
               | 
               | Absolutely not.
               | 
               | I understand the tendency to assume that modern tech
               | would make it relatively easy thing to accomplish but
               | there are considerable challenges with ground-based
               | aerial photography/videography...at
               | nighttime...completely unplanned and unscheduled...by an
               | amateur. Better technology makes the field more
               | _accessible_ in a general way, but there is still a very
               | large barrier of: skill, hardware, and out-right luck
               | involved in _good_ image capture as a medium.
               | 
               | Consider, if you ever look towards the beginning or end
               | of some runways you may see a group of plane spotters
               | setup taking photos and video of the airplanes. The
               | typical hardware used to capture things well is a minimum
               | of: DSLR, tripod, battery extenders (or spares), and good
               | perch to rest during lulls (it's more physically
               | demanding on your arms then you might imagine.) More
               | crucially, this is for airplanes that are taking off and
               | landing 1) in a predictable pattern 2) at routine
               | intervals 3) captured primarily in daylight.
               | 
               | Add in height? Introduce increased shake. Add in
               | darkness? Introduce exposure (hold the camera still,
               | longer to get a brighter image). Add in inexperience?
               | Introduce beginner mistakes. On top of those practical
               | concerns, it's probably also pretty creepy to see these
               | unknown objects/drones/whatever. Fear impacts our ability
               | to react in a helpful way.
               | 
               | Smartphones make it simpler to capture _a_ picture or _a_
               | video, but there is profound gulf between getting
               | _something_ and something even remotely good.
               | 
               | If you're not sure what I mean, here's a simple test you
               | can try: 1) Grab a pencil and go into a completely dark
               | room like a basement 2) Turn off the flash on your phone
               | 3) Holding the pencil between pointer finger and thumb
               | stretch your hand as far from your body as you physically
               | can 4) Take one photo of the tip of the pencil eraser
               | one-handed.
               | 
               | That is considerably easier than it would be to
               | photograph/video a moving object across the night sky,
               | even if it is perceived as moving "low and slow". Longer
               | exposure times mean the camera has to be held motionless
               | for longer so the camera sensor can "soak up" more light
               | to "expose" the photograph properly. (This is why photos
               | at night feel like they take perceptibly longer to
               | capture than they do in daytime - they do take longer!)
               | Flash can help with nearby subjects, but for objects far
               | away (thousands of feet above you) no amount of flash is
               | going to reach the object to reduce exposure time.
               | 
               | Then, let's make things even worse! The object is
               | _moving_ which means that _over_ exposure will turn that
               | solid object into a blur. This is something that is
               | easily possible[1] when taking photos of the night sky.
               | 
               | [1] https://photographylife.com/wp-
               | content/uploads/2019/07/Sharp...
        
               | kjkjadksj wrote:
               | You go take that smartphone of yours and try and take a
               | high quality video of just an airliner at night. Its not
               | easy at all. Even in daylight this is like a 35mm lens on
               | a tiny sensor its not the hardware you need to crop out a
               | speck from the sky and show the world what it is. You
               | really need a lens thats about the size of your calf and
               | the sort of camera that goes along with that. And
               | probably a tripod. Not something many have handy.
        
               | bagels wrote:
               | I'm not arguing that these are or aren't anything
               | interesting, but low, relative to airplanes is still
               | pretty far for cell phone cameras, especially in the
               | dark.
        
             | walrus01 wrote:
             | I live in the Pacific NW and there are a vast number of
             | people with _really good quality_ trail cameras who put
             | them tied to trees all over the place for deer and elk
             | hunting purposes. If Bigfoot was real, we absolutely would
             | have seen one by now.
        
               | sandworm101 wrote:
               | Futurama - s4e17
               | 
               | Sir, if I may? Why don't you just set up, like, a billion
               | video cameras...
               | 
               | In the woods and see if he walks by one?
               | 
               | Ah. That would be very expensive...
               | 
               | And most people who believe in Bigfoot are broke.
        
             | epr wrote:
             | There are multiple videos already, some even in broad
             | daylight. For example, the nbc news clip on youtube about
             | 15 seconds in.
        
           | K0balt wrote:
           | These are being extensively tested in the area:
           | https://pterodynamics.com/
        
           | keepamovin wrote:
           | Please take my upvote for your first hand account over
           | someone's speculation. What do they sound like?
        
             | foxglacier wrote:
             | It contains speculation about their height and speed. You
             | usually can't estimate those things for a UFO because near,
             | low, and slow looks the same as far, high and fast when you
             | have no idea how big it is or how it "should" behave.
        
           | keepamovin wrote:
           | It's not just NJ, here's one weirdn in Miami: https://www.red
           | dit.com/r/UFOs/comments/1hcfaqw/glowing_orb_f...
           | (https://archive.is/VPxBG) (from tiktok account
           | jessica.leigh)
           | 
           | Also, a consensus is building that it's ridiculous for the
           | powers that be to claim they have no clue. This is an
           | underappreciated take. See for example: https://www.reddit.co
           | m/r/UFOs/comments/1hcdsgf/whatever_this...
           | (https://archive.is/mFMis)
        
           | darkarmani wrote:
           | That sounds like a legal height then.
        
         | plipt wrote:
         | I find the discussions on Metabunk.org helpful with news
         | stories like this.
         | 
         | For example here is a clip that a Fox News host recorded.
         | Presented as a drone, but is it not clearly just an airplane
         | filmed flying directly overhead?
         | 
         | https://www.metabunk.org/threads/drones-over-new-jersey.1377...
        
           | Terr_ wrote:
           | Yeah, that looks pretty damn normal. I mean, what kind of
           | Nefarious Power would send out its Secret Drones with
           | standard wingtip lights and headlights on?
           | 
           | Note that in this aviation context, those headlights are more
           | to make the plane itself more visible to everyone else, not
           | to give extra information to its pilot(s). It's hard to make
           | lights bright-enough that they could illuminate something in
           | time for an in-air plane to avoid it. (E.g. a magical flying
           | sleigh.)
        
             | wbl wrote:
             | That sleigh does have a high visibility red light although
             | the mounting is somewhat unorthodox.
        
               | Terr_ wrote:
               | I considered trying some napkin-math for how many
               | calories Rudolph would need to burn running a luciferin
               | reaction like a firefly, but immediately stumbled over
               | the issue of many lumens the FAA would consider
               | acceptable. (Assuming they could be convinced to overlook
               | all the other issues of proper color and signaling etc.)
        
         | carabiner wrote:
         | People are claiming that these show "mimics," some type of
         | drone designed to look like commercial aircraft.
        
           | ImPostingOnHN wrote:
           | At that point, how do we know they aren't commercial aircraft
           | mimicking drones mimicking commercial aircraft?
        
             | carabiner wrote:
             | did yall see the drone outside my house it came down and it
             | said hello and then it touched me
        
           | _djo_ wrote:
           | Such people are idiots, to be blunt.
        
             | carabiner wrote:
             | I know. Some people have REALLY gotten into it though:
             | 
             | > I'm a professional videographer by trade. I filmed these
             | things for 6 hours last week. High native ISO, tripod,
             | 400mm lens, new camera model. No one here will believe me
             | (especially those who have not witnessed this first hand)
             | but they mimic planes when filmed. With my naked eye they
             | are more abstract. Some where as close as 100ft to me. Then
             | once they are within a certain range or a camera is pointed
             | at them they mimic aircraft. So many people online are
             | mocking those that say this, but I'll take the downvotes.
             | I'm a professional in my field and know what I'm describing
             | is accurate. You just need to see it to believe it. My
             | footage would just be mocked as plane footage. I need to go
             | back out there but with a flight tracker app in real time
             | as hard proof.
             | 
             | https://www.reddit.com/r/NJDrones/comments/1hcon8h/comment/
             | m...
             | 
             | I'm guessing the camera sensor is catching more light,
             | detail, than what the guy is seeing with his own eyes,
             | possibly because he hasn't waited long enough for to adjust
             | to the darkness.
        
         | superfrank wrote:
         | From what little I've seen on this, it kind of feels like the
         | issue with Priuses acceleration out of control like 15 years
         | ago. It was a huge scandal that lead to multiple Toyota recalls
         | and even a lawsuit settlement and in the end, it seems like it
         | was basically human error.
         | 
         | One person messed up and crashed their Prius claiming the
         | accelerator got stuck and it got picked up by the news. That
         | story then primed other people to start looking for that and
         | from then on anytime a Prius crashed people were looking to
         | blame the accelerator. More people reported their Priuses
         | accelerating out of control which then reinforced the idea even
         | more and so on and so on.
        
           | IAmGraydon wrote:
           | That's known as mass psychogenic illness, and history is full
           | of examples.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_psychogenic_illness
        
             | throwawayq3423 wrote:
             | Otherwise known as gaslighting
        
           | genewitch wrote:
           | well, it wasn't a prius originally, it was a lexus that
           | launched off a southern california freeway because they
           | burned the brakes up trying to stop the acceleration.
           | 
           | Toyota and lexus sometimes have the gas pedal _hinged_ on the
           | floor panel, rather than suspended from piece of metal from
           | up above. If you swap out the stock floor mats for ones not
           | designed with this in mind, during a hard brake your feet can
           | move forward, jamming the floor mat into the accelerator and
           | causing the engine to receive more fuel.
           | 
           | If you'd like a picture, i can go take a picture of the
           | accelerator pedal in my lexus from 2012, and the floor mats
           | which are all but _bolted_ down to prevent this from
           | happening.
           | 
           | as a side note i prefer the hinged design because there's
           | less distance to traverse, i just wish the brake was the same
           | way!
        
           | bsder wrote:
           | Most of the Toyota acceleration accidents were almost
           | certainly the result of operator error. The fact that the
           | staistical probablity increased with age gives that away.
           | 
           | However, Toyota got convicted because their software
           | development process was so terrible that they were
           | effectively criminally negligent and deserved to get
           | absolutely roasted for it.
        
             | jahewson wrote:
             | > criminally negligent
             | 
             | Well, civil reckless disregard, as it wasn't a criminal
             | case.
        
             | UltraSane wrote:
             | Did they use tons of global variables?
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Globals are common and even right in this application.
               | However they didn't take proper care in other ways (i'm
               | not clear what I've just been in embedded long enough to
               | know globals are often required despite how hard they are
               | to get right)
        
               | UltraSane wrote:
               | tons of global variables on code that has lots of people
               | working on it seems almost as hard as trying to write
               | lock-free data structures.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | In general embedded controllers like this don't have a
               | lot of people working on them. They also have rules
               | (enforced by review which isn't great) about when they
               | can be accessed. In an embedded context you are not
               | allowed to allocate memory (except at startup), so a lot
               | of these globals are just arrays/buffers only used by one
               | function or pseudo class (a class by intent but not
               | actually a class by the language if the language even has
               | a concept of class)
        
               | bee_rider wrote:
               | Probably didn't use misra
        
               | 7thaccount wrote:
               | The investigation literally called their code
               | "spaghetti".
        
           | fdkz wrote:
           | Some information about the Toyota cases: https://users.ece.cm
           | u.edu/~koopman/pubs/koopman14_toyota_ua_... page 14 is
           | especially interesting.
           | 
           | And more technical information: https://www.safetyresearch.ne
           | t/Library/BarrSlides_FINAL_SCRU...
        
           | brandonmenc wrote:
           | iirc wasn't it the floor mats being designed such that they
           | were prone to interfering with the pedals?
        
         | gooseus wrote:
         | I have had a bet going with two of my friends on this exact
         | point for almost a week now, and the fact that it is _still_
         | not been resolved by any agency is insane.
         | 
         | I also have a couple friends who work at Picatinny as well, and
         | have heard that their civilian security have spotted some
         | (which is strange since their airspace is always restricted),
         | but there haven't been any internal memos regarding them.
         | 
         | Some things I've observed/heard/thought during arguments and
         | searching for evidence in either direction:
         | 
         | 1. People need video evidence and assume it's easy to get
         | because everyone carries a video camera with them.
         | 
         | 2. Most people have never tried to capture a fast-moving object
         | with lights in the night's sky with a cellphone.
         | 
         | 3. People assume everyone else is a complete fucking idiot,
         | including police, the media, politicians, and most every
         | authority on the subject. This is also in both directions, but
         | with my friends they seem to assume that people have
         | coincidentally forgotten what a plane looks/sounds like in the
         | nights sky and decided to report them as "not planes" to the
         | authorities.
         | 
         | 4. The skeptical position on this is firmly in the minority
         | across all social media I've seen.
         | 
         | 5. Lots of videos are completely indistinguishable from planes,
         | and any that seem "weird" can be easily explained by tricks of
         | perspective.
         | 
         | 6. If there ARE drones being operated in a way where they would
         | prefer not be recognized, then it doesn't seem crazy they would
         | put lights on and move in ways that would disguise them as
         | planes.
         | 
         | 7. Flight trackers are not reliable because not all planes that
         | fly need to have flight plans and transponders.
         | 
         | I have taken the position that _something_ weird is happening,
         | and that not all of the reports can be explained by
         | commercial/private planes, but I don't mind being wrong so long
         | as a definitive answer is going to present itself.
         | 
         | Anyways, glad to see the discussion has made it to HN so I can
         | crowdsource some more arguments, would love it if you all could
         | help resolve this wager.
        
           | bragr wrote:
           | >not all planes that fly need to have flight plans and
           | transponders
           | 
           | Technically true but since 2020 almost all aircraft are
           | required to have transponders to fly in controlled airspace.
           | You could have a small GA aircraft without a transponder and
           | only fly in and out of small uncontrolled air strips, but in
           | practice most aircraft are going to have ADS-B out now.
           | 
           | https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/technology/equipadsb/researc.
           | ..
        
           | tsimionescu wrote:
           | > If there ARE drones being operated in a way where they
           | would prefer not be recognized, then it doesn't seem crazy
           | they would put lights on and move in ways that would disguise
           | them as planes.
           | 
           | Wouldn't it be much, much, much easier and less crazy that,
           | if you want to fly a small object at night and hide its exact
           | nature and position, you would just paint it a deep, non-
           | reflective black? Adding lights to an object you want to hide
           | at night is completely crazy.
        
             | gooseus wrote:
             | This is true, and we had this debate a little bit -
             | disguising is not the same as hiding.
             | 
             | If you're trying to avoid any detection then you would also
             | want to mask the sound, or else people will be hearing
             | things in the sky and not seeing anything... until they
             | start pointing low-light and infrared cameras at the sky.
             | When that happens the vantablack drones are going to pop
             | against the background and leave no doubt that there is
             | something strange in the sky, since they def won't be
             | looking/moving like bats.
             | 
             | By disguising as planes you blend in with the air traffic
             | for most people, and create confusion and debate with
             | anyone who does notice they are out of the ordinary
             | (exactly what we're seeing now).
             | 
             | Another point is that lights on flying objects in the dark
             | serve a purpose, and if these drones are coordinating with
             | each other, they may be using the lights to maintain
             | formations or avoid running into each other without relying
             | on other communication channels that could give away more
             | information.
        
           | 01100011 wrote:
           | > the fact that it is _still_ not been resolved by any agency
           | is insane
           | 
           | I don't think it's insane. We won't get serious about
           | tracking UAVs/drones/RC aircraft until there is an incident.
           | Until then, agencies likely do not have the money, resources,
           | time or motivation to do it.
        
         | Eji1700 wrote:
         | What blows my mind, is that damn near every single person
         | seeing this has a phone that can record video, and the best we
         | can do is grainy night pictures.
         | 
         | I mean fucking hell we've got people in this thread saying
         | "yeah but they don't move like that" ,which fine, cool, and yet
         | somehow the only stuff circulating is pictures?
         | 
         | This whole thing reeks of overreaction to something small
         | signal boosted by filtering of bad data. Send a clear video "oh
         | that's obviously a helicopter". Send some barely readable photo
         | "MASSIVE DRONE SIGHTING", put it on the front page.
        
           | zombiwoof wrote:
           | Take the drone, leave the Cannoli
        
           | genewitch wrote:
           | there were videos of ostensibly these drones. i've seen two
           | that claimed such, but unfortunately i did not save the
           | videos - dumb. "remote control aircraft" are so low on my
           | radar (PI) that i wrote it off as people scared of their
           | shadow. The original story was it was loitering near some
           | Trump property, and that's why FAA issued a NOTAM for that
           | area. afaik, this is standard procedure? But maybe people
           | don't know that or the news they watch is explaining things
           | poorly. who knows. I just know why i didn't save the videos.
        
           | moralestapia wrote:
           | >grainy night pictures
           | 
           | Because that's what you get when you point your phone at the
           | sky at night and start recording.
           | 
           | Have you never tried to do this?
           | 
           | Even the moon, the brightest and largest object in the sky,
           | by far, comes out looking really bad on night pictures.
        
         | _DeadFred_ wrote:
         | I don't think the Coast Guard mistook 12 American Airlines
         | planes for drones following their boat:
         | 
         | https://apnews.com/article/fbi-drones-new-jersey-a978470fa3b...
         | 
         | In another article a Sheriff saw 50 drones coming in from the
         | ocean.
         | 
         | Here a New Jersey elected official talks about the
         | Sheriff/Police helicopter following an unidentified drone, then
         | pull back because they feared for their safety (so low
         | probability it was not something odd but just an American
         | Airlines plane):
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yxDXqU9OQQ
        
           | op00to wrote:
           | You keep posting the same stuff multiple times in the thread.
           | It doesn't help your argument.
        
             | _DeadFred_ wrote:
             | My argument that the Coast Guard didn't mistake American
             | Airlines planes for 12 drones following their boat is
             | invalidated because I posted an AP article twice?
        
           | bragr wrote:
           | Why not? The navy confused infrared lens flairs of UFOs
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsEjV8DdSbs
        
             | hersko wrote:
             | This would be convincing if the pilots who captured the
             | video didn't see it with their own eyes.
        
         | magic_smoke_ee wrote:
         | Yeap. The media people parroting this are morons.
        
         | Brian_K_White wrote:
         | The Pentagon says they are not our military, and probably not
         | foreign.
         | 
         | What the Pentagon does not say is that they don't exist or are
         | just ordinary planes.
         | 
         | Why wouldn't they say that if there was any remote chance to
         | sell it, even if they were trying to lie about something? Hell
         | especially then.
        
         | mrguyorama wrote:
         | Lol that one even has a telltale _incandescent_ landing light!
         | It 's a weird quirk of the conservative nature of Airlines and
         | the FAA but most planes still rely on a gigantic incandescent
         | light bulb for their landing lights, which is quite distinct
         | nowadays.
         | 
         | Speaking of which, if it has landing lights or recognition
         | lights or the red/green navigation lights, you can bet it is
         | not a UFO, and probably not a foreign adversary.
        
           | Syonyk wrote:
           | Why is that particularly surprising? If the planes were
           | certified with a particular landing light, it's an awful lot
           | of paperwork and STCs to change things out. Plus, you
           | wouldn't just be swapping out the bulb - you'd have to swap
           | out the entire reflector to keep the beam pattern sane. The
           | retrofit LEDs on car headlights regularly demonstrate what
           | happens when you change from a more or less point source of
           | light on the central axis (the filament in an H4 bulb or some
           | other similar type) to a source that's "not that," you get
           | all sorts of weird focus and cutoff issues.
           | 
           | Also, consider icing conditions. Any modern airliner is rated
           | for flight into known icing, which includes deicing
           | equipment. A halogen landing light is self-deicing for the
           | most part (airliner landing lights are hundreds of watts,
           | some are closer to a thousand). It will happily keep ice
           | buildup away from the lens, whereas a LED will need some
           | other variety of deicing to keep it clear. This is one of the
           | reasons I use halogen bulbs in my motorcycle - I ride year
           | round, to include in ice and snow (Ural, so has a sidecar, I
           | can drive the sidecar wheel too, it's totally fine in these
           | conditions). A halogen bulb keeps the headlight nicely free
           | of ice buildup. LEDs don't put out enough heat to solve that
           | problem, and it doesn't take that much ice buildup to totally
           | scramble the beam pattern off a good glass lens.
           | 
           | You can get LED retrofit landing lights for smaller planes,
           | and the club I fly with has them - but they're also Cessnas
           | not rated for flight into known icing, so "keeping ice off
           | the landing lights" is not a particular design concern.
           | 
           | Anyway, it surprises me none that airliners are still using
           | halogens for the most part.
        
       | dantillberg wrote:
       | There was a similar phenomenon a few years back in Colorado:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Colorado_drone....
        
         | amatecha wrote:
         | TIL (from that page): "Flying drones at night without a waiver
         | from the FAA is a violation of federal law" -- perhaps relevant
         | to the top level article
        
           | Aloisius wrote:
           | You haven't needed a waiver since 2021. Now you can get near
           | real-time approval to fly at night under Part 107.
        
             | op00to wrote:
             | You don't need any prior approval under 107 to fly at
             | night. You don't need a part 107 license to fly at night if
             | you're flying for "fun". You simply need lights.
        
             | amatecha wrote:
             | Oh, then I suppose that page is out of date and should be
             | updated. Thanks for the up-to-date info!
        
       | pygar wrote:
       | So is Iran just going to be the default bogeyman until they drum
       | up enough negative sentiment for a war?
       | 
       | Iran doesn't really have any military projection. It can't even
       | move equipment and people into countries it's close to (Syria,
       | Iraq), let alone the US. Why would they take the risk of doing
       | this? It's obviously bullshit.
        
         | potato3732842 wrote:
         | >Iran doesn't really have any military projection.
         | 
         | I'll take "things people said about Afghanistan in 1999" for
         | 400!
         | 
         | Just to be clear, I fully agree with your sentiment. Probably
         | not Iran or any other foreign power.
        
           | lesuorac wrote:
           | Isn't it true about Afghanistan in 1999 and probably now too?
           | 
           | A lack of military projection doesn't mean that your country
           | can go in and rout out all insurgency. It just means that
           | Afghanistan isn't going to be able to wage war on US soil
           | from Afghanistan.
        
         | mkoubaa wrote:
         | This. Blame Iran by default is getting really tiresome at this
         | point
        
         | toofy wrote:
         | > So is Iran just going to be the default bogeyman...?
         | 
         | likely, until theyre crying everything is antifa again. they
         | seem to cycle around through their paranoia targets.
        
         | LAC-Tech wrote:
         | I think the American public is a lot more cynical than when
         | they were duped into war with Iraq 20 years ago.
         | 
         | Certain people will try and drag you into an Iranian war, but I
         | don't think it will work now. The playbook has been used too
         | many times.
        
           | c0redump wrote:
           | I agree with you in general, except for one important point -
           | I think it _will_ work again. Plenty of people will see
           | through the lie, but enough will buy it that they'll get
           | their war.
        
       | NotYourLawyer wrote:
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Boston_Mooninite_panic
        
         | ChrisArchitect wrote:
         | a recent thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42225609
        
         | op00to wrote:
         | Exactly my thought! It feels very much the same.
        
         | ZYbCRq22HbJ2y7 wrote:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jersey_Devil#Reported_sighting...
        
       | gowld wrote:
       | What kind of equipment (available to civilians) can capture
       | accurate and useful data about of UFO size, distance, and
       | trajectory/heading?
        
         | genewitch wrote:
         | you'd probably need active radar if it isn't transmitting
         | anything, unless you had a extremely high gain and directional
         | passive radar system (i do, but i've never tried to track
         | anything small, but i can see commercial jets just fine).
         | 
         | The Hydra (it's changed names so many times) can do passive
         | radar, which you can probably make active with a tx switch and
         | a transmitter. Passive radar works thus: you aim a directional
         | antenna in one direction, toward some transmitting signal (FM
         | radio, television, whatever), and aim your passive detection
         | antenna in the other direction. The signal from behind will hit
         | whatever you're aiming at and possibly reflect some of the
         | signal back to you, and the hydra radio software can detect
         | "echos" of that sort and put them on a chart with relative
         | sizes and speeds and "distance" as well.
         | 
         | https://www.rtl-sdr.com/tag/hydrasdr/
        
       | downWidOutaFite wrote:
       | Israel has been mounting guns and speakers on long-distance
       | quadcopters and shooting at Gazans. Only a short time until that
       | tech becomes widespread. Israel seems to be a proving ground for
       | mass population terrorizing tech like this. I'm having a hard
       | time seeing how society is not going to devolve into capitalist
       | tech fascism as we lose all our privacy and tech becomes more
       | powerful than our governments, aka the will of the people.
        
         | boc wrote:
         | Wait until you hear that the US mounted hellfire missiles on a
         | drone in 2001 and shot at trucks/people in Afghanistan.
         | 
         | Or it is only "terrorizing" to a population when you use
         | bullets instead of enormous bullets that also kill everything
         | in a 30m radius?
        
           | wahnfrieden wrote:
           | Both are obviously terrorism
        
         | mkoubaa wrote:
         | The whole appeal of their defense industry is that they have
         | people to test their weapons on
        
       | MisterTea wrote:
       | Those floating balloon things we saw previously, the ones which
       | were shot down, I had a thought they could be used as floating
       | drone platforms. Like the carrier in Starcraft. The whole thing
       | can silently float for days, the drones can awake and deploy,
       | surveil, return, then float away silently. It could then scuttle
       | itself in the ocean where a waiting ship can salvage it.
        
         | bluescrn wrote:
         | It'd be a lot more subtle to just have a spy on the ground
         | operating a drone from nearby, looking like just another
         | careless hobbyist flying where they shouldn't be.
         | 
         | Small drones don't have much range, and balloons could have
         | ended up hundreds of miles off target.
        
         | lagrange77 wrote:
         | Oh, like the gas stations in TaleSpin.
        
       | guhcampos wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
         | redeux wrote:
         | If you look at who is claiming espionage, I don't think it's
         | intended to be a plausible explanation - just an excuse to
         | further agitate.
        
         | nixosbestos wrote:
         | Oh, here, I'll make you feel better. Go check sub of the
         | alien/ufo subreddits. Literally you'll see comments that amount
         | to "my life sucks and is boring, this would be exciting even if
         | bad".
         | 
         | It's uh, a bit maddening and a bit sad.
        
           | nixosbestos wrote:
           | Lol.
        
         | kfrzcode wrote:
         | Which models? What are the specific dimensions? I assume if
         | you're confident they're widespread, commercially available,
         | you know what kind of aircraft we're dealing with. I'd hope you
         | can help me demystify further what's going on in the controlled
         | airspace near military installations.
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | I'll admit that were I seeing such stories in my area, I'd be
         | hard pressed not to hang some bit of a Halloween costume on a
         | drone and send it around the neighbourhood.
        
           | shagie wrote:
           | Done 11 years ago - https://youtu.be/tB8D2QZ9lA4
           | 
           | Drones of today would likely be a fair bit easier to work
           | with.
        
           | carabiner wrote:
           | Just take a clear video of an airplane landing or taking off
           | and that should be enough.
        
         | wsintra2022 wrote:
         | There was also a lot of drone sightings reported last week in
         | Britain of similar fear, drones near a US military base
         | somewhere in UK, think it was also in the Guardian.
        
         | georgeburdell wrote:
         | Not commenting on NJ specifically, but there have been drone
         | sightings near sensitive military sites recently, as reported
         | by the military
        
           | mcphage wrote:
           | > there have been drone sightings near sensitive military
           | sites recently
           | 
           | How near is "near"? There's an awful lot of sensitive
           | military sites in the US.
        
             | op00to wrote:
             | New Jersey is essentially one big sensitive site. Between
             | Picatinny Arsenal, Joint Base McGuire-Dix, NWS Earle, and
             | all the other smaller sites, you're about 15 miles away
             | from any one site and if you're near civilization you're
             | much closer. Add in other sensitive sites like power
             | stations and reservoirs, and the entire state is
             | "sensitive". This smacks hard of manipulation and
             | agitation. 99% of the sitings shared with me have been
             | airplanes.
        
               | roflyear wrote:
               | Lots of what is shared is airplanes, but there have been
               | official sources confirming drone sightings too. I
               | haven't seen a drone yet myself tho.
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | So why do most of the UFOS ... sorry UAP's ... come to
               | New Mexico?
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | Lots of swamp gas, very few independent observers.
        
           | tacticalturtle wrote:
           | Here's one recent example in Virginia:
           | 
           | https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/drones-
           | milita...
           | 
           | A graduate student in Minnesota flew to a naval base in
           | Virginia, used a consumer drone to photograph the area, then
           | attempted to board a flight to China before he was caught by
           | authorities.
           | 
           | His defense was that he was a fan of boats and drones, and as
           | his lawyer said:
           | 
           | "If he was a foreign agent, he would be the worst spy ever
           | known"
        
             | tyre wrote:
             | But you do know about him!
        
           | boringg wrote:
           | Vanderberg Air Force Base - International espionage attempt
           | at least thats what the news is saying:
           | https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/12/11/chinese-
           | citiz...
        
         | _DeadFred_ wrote:
         | I mean there were 12 drones following a Coast Guard lifeboat.
         | Doubt the Coastguard crew mass hysteria'd themselves into
         | thinking 12 nearby 737s were following their boat (unless they
         | just raided some Colombian drug submarine prior to coming into
         | port).
         | 
         | https://apnews.com/article/fbi-drones-new-jersey-a978470fa3b...
         | 
         | And the official government response is super odd. Police were
         | following a drone (that is totally safe we are told) then
         | called the helicopter back because he felt unsafe. But the
         | drones are safe (except if you are a police helicopter?).
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yxDXqU9OQQ
         | 
         | Lots of strange behavior.
         | 
         | EDIT: Downvotes for posting an APNews article and an elected
         | New Jersey Assemblyman that just came out of the government
         | briefing, really?
        
           | ZYbCRq22HbJ2y7 wrote:
           | > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yxDXqU9OQQ
           | 
           | Isn't this just the standard politician response? I am angry,
           | this is ridiculous, so on. It might be more useful to
           | actually listen to the hearing.
        
             | _DeadFred_ wrote:
             | 'We don't know what these drones are, where they come from,
             | so we followed one, then we... just stopped following it'.
             | 
             | That's not the normal Police/Sheriff response, no.
             | 
             | There are multiple New Jersey state government officials
             | that attended this government hearing retelling that the
             | Police/Sheriff said a Police helicopter did just stop
             | following the unknown drone because 'the Police/Sheriff
             | felt unsafe'.
        
               | ZYbCRq22HbJ2y7 wrote:
               | > There are multiple New Jersey state government
               | officials that attended this government hearing retelling
               | that the Police/Sheriff said a Police helicopter did just
               | stop following the unknown drone because 'the
               | Police/Sheriff felt unsafe'.
               | 
               | I can't find that? Care to share?
        
               | _DeadFred_ wrote:
               | Sorry I don't have Twitter and didn't save the link.
               | Believe the one was a female New Jersey elected official.
               | I suggest you start with looking up responses of
               | officials from the meeting today if you don't believe
               | this Assemblyman.
        
               | Arrath wrote:
               | To be fair helicopters are held aloft by man's
               | engineering hubris and blatantly flaunting gravity.
               | Taking a drone to the tail rotor may not be entirely
               | healthy to the crew of the chopper.
        
               | tonyarkles wrote:
               | Oh, my understanding was that they manage to fly because
               | they're so ugly that the ground wants nothing to do with
               | them and pushes them away. I stand corrected :D
        
           | op00to wrote:
           | Can you site an actual reliable source, and not the
           | mouthpiece of a political party?
        
             | _DeadFred_ wrote:
             | If we can't trust the Coast Guard then we are screwed as a
             | country.
        
             | trimethylpurine wrote:
             | If there was such a news source we'd all be reading it and
             | agreeing with one another.
        
               | jwarden wrote:
               | But there is such a reliable source, it is right in GP's
               | post -- the AP article with the cosst guard interview. I
               | don't understand these comments.
               | 
               | https://apnews.com/article/fbi-drones-new-
               | jersey-a978470fa3b...
        
             | shadowtree wrote:
             | Name one, please.
        
             | jwarden wrote:
             | GP also provided this AP article as a source. This article
             | quotes a coast guard official directly.
             | 
             | https://apnews.com/article/fbi-drones-new-
             | jersey-a978470fa3b...
        
           | koolba wrote:
           | > And the official government response is super odd. Police
           | were following a drone (that is totally safe we are told)
           | then called the helicopter back because he felt unsafe. But
           | the drones are safe (except if you are a police helicopter?).
           | 
           | A misguided drone flying into a helicopter does seem unsafe.
           | Just because something isn't a threat to a ground pedestrian
           | does not mean it can't be a threat to a whirlybird.
        
           | y33t wrote:
           | Helis have to get out of the vicinity of drones all the time,
           | it's a safety thing. If a drone suddenly flies into heli
           | rotor, what do you think happens?
           | 
           | Somebody died near where I live because LifeFlight aborted
           | after a drone was spotted by the heli. Firefighters abort
           | flights for drones too, it's really serious.
        
         | whimsicalism wrote:
         | I think social media is really having a detrimental impact on
         | these sort of mass panics.
        
           | cyx65 wrote:
           | Vernor Vinge called it Belief Circles. And in Rainbows End he
           | tells a story of how to get them to stampede in one direction
           | or another to suit anyones agenda. But on the flip side, once
           | you create a herd of domesticated animals (side note: always
           | useful to deeply understand how the process of animal
           | domestication works), Stampedes can start from just one
           | individual getting scared by their own shadow. To keep things
           | from going out of control, the herd manager is then
           | programmed (or "learns"), to get the herd to run in circles.
           | They eventually get tired. And the story ends happily ever
           | after.
        
           | bamboozled wrote:
           | you mean...it's not "the radical left"?
        
           | jerlam wrote:
           | Traditional media is also involved, I've overheard Fox News
           | hosts definitively state we're under invasion, blame Biden
           | for it, and explain why Trump will fix it.
        
           | palmfacehn wrote:
           | Most of the coverage I saw online was from local affiliate
           | stations. A deliberate attempt to alarm the public seems more
           | likely than many of the theories offered.
        
           | hindsightbias wrote:
           | Anybody with a DJI can fly over NJ with impunity right now.
           | Xmas night is going to be dronapalooza.
        
           | Erikun wrote:
           | When the Ukraine war started, there were drone sightings
           | reported near the airport and some energy installations in
           | Stockholm, Sweden. Then there suddenly were tons of
           | sightings, everyone was talking about possible Russian drone
           | operations. Many are still unexplained but a whole bunch
           | turned out to be other things, birds, ambulance aircrafts. I
           | think the consensus now is that there was just a few, non
           | state, drone flights and the rest were just mass hysteria.
        
         | bongodongobob wrote:
         | Yeah the avg person in the US is in a state of complete terror
         | because grades better than C's in high school make you an
         | uncool nerd. Imagine thinking everything is made of magic and
         | people who try to explain basic science are trying to lie to
         | you with confusing gotcha arguments. We are absolutely cooked.
        
         | roflyear wrote:
         | They aren't small drones - they seem to be really large, like
         | 4-10 feet wide. It's hard to tell but they definitely are not
         | small.
        
         | cuuupid wrote:
         | At times like this it's helpful to use a simple, three point
         | framework: [1] What do we know? [2] What is noise? [3] What is
         | the boring explanation?
         | 
         | For [1], we know there are likely _some_ drones. We know drones
         | are a very hot topic for defense at the moment and that
         | countries are heavily investing in this area. We know that
         | these systems need very heavy testing for coordination,
         | surveillance, etc. and we know that other countries have
         | conducted these in urban areas. We also know that these drones
         | have been seen often nearby military installations. We know
         | that our government is claiming to have no idea what these are,
         | but has declared them safe and does not intend to take them
         | out. We know that Ukraine (backed by the US) has used drones
         | pretty successfully against Russia. We know that Israel has
         | used drones successfully against targets across the region. We
         | also know that the US is deploying pretty heavily in PACOM, and
         | we can see that there are a wide array of large value contracts
         | regarding drones being handed out to defense contractors.
         | 
         | For [2], there is SO much noise. A congressman immediately
         | blaming Iran (a country an entire ocean away that is incurring
         | heavy regional losses). The news and mass hysteria online that
         | it's aliens. People confusing helicopters and planes for
         | drones, but with just enough actual drone footage in the mix to
         | false flag. Pretty much everyone looking at the skies which
         | will greatly increase incidence. Just enough counter culture
         | online that these are kids drones, regular planes, helicopters.
         | Lots of varying narratives coming from different branches of
         | military and law enforcement.
         | 
         | That's all very interesting, but if you subtract [2] from [1]
         | you get a very boring explanation, [3] that these are likely
         | our own drones being tested. I've seen this boring explanation
         | get dismissed as technically the US has testing sites, but
         | these are typically for bombs, and drones are best utilized in
         | populated areas or for surveillance (both of which are hard to
         | test in the desert). I also see dismissals of this as "the
         | military would have said something by now," but they have:
         | they've declared these "safe." If they were testing out new
         | functionality on cutting edge tech they wouldn't admit to it,
         | no matter how many likes a tweet gets or how many videos get
         | posted online.
         | 
         | There is also no way a state government, governor, or law
         | enforcement would know about this (yeah, even the FBI) because
         | drone programs in the US are coordinated by intelligence
         | agencies that are very secretive and don't like to share
         | information among themselves.
        
           | quantadev wrote:
           | > An entire ocean away.
           | 
           | Ever heard of submarines and ships. the Congressman said he
           | heard from a good source there was an Iranian "mothership" on
           | the East Coast. I guess you claim he's being lied to, or
           | making it all up?
        
             | macintux wrote:
             | Remember Jewish space lasers?
        
               | WillPostForFood wrote:
               | Remember Chinese weather balloons? We live in a time
               | where through incompetence or corruption, almost anything
               | possible can actually happen.
        
             | tyre wrote:
             | Yes, he's clearly making it all up.
        
               | quantadev wrote:
               | If he was a Democrat you'd be saying the opposite. lol.
        
             | Arrath wrote:
             | "He made it up" certainly seems more likely than Iran,
             | what, retrofitting one of their old Kilo class D/E subs to
             | be a drone mothership that's just lurking off the coast?
        
               | quantadev wrote:
               | Ever heard of Cargo Ships? That's the most likely
               | delivery mechanism. If Trump was the Commander right now,
               | all these Democrats saying "nothing to see here" would be
               | losing their minds over it, especially if the tables were
               | fully turned and it was actually a Democrat congressman
               | saying there was a mothership somewhere. So sad how most
               | Americans just "cheer for their tribe" and always say
               | their side can do no wrong. There's a reason MSM/CNN has
               | lost the faith of the American people and Fox is on top.
               | People finally realized which side has been lying for the
               | past decade.
        
             | ceejayoz wrote:
             | Congressional reps can be... credulous.
             | 
             | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republican-congressman-falls-
             | vi...
        
             | StanislavPetrov wrote:
             | >I guess you claim he's being lied to, or making it all up?
             | 
             | Don't forget rank stupidity as a strong possibility.
        
             | pfisch wrote:
             | How much time did he get on fox news? How many new
             | followers on social media?
             | 
             | This is the game they are playing. The attention game. Just
             | like the kid who misbehaves so people pay attention to him.
             | This is what social media has done to our society.
        
             | cuuupid wrote:
             | With everything intel-coded you can quickly figure out what
             | is actually happening by applying the three point
             | framework:
             | 
             | [1] What we know: Iran does not have a strong drone
             | program, and it is almost impossible to get a ship that
             | close to our shores without it being blown to literal bits
             | by our 3 navy's.
             | 
             | [2] Noise: Congress has almost no insight into what the DoD
             | does outside of hearings and oversight committees; Jeff Van
             | Drew is on none of the committees that oversee any of our
             | drone programs or space command, nor do these meet on a
             | frequent enough cadence for them to have weighed in intel
             | already. He's also a gun nut pro-lifer who has voted with
             | Russian interests in the last two votes, and I doubt he
             | would receive many markings or special briefings from intel
             | agencies. The Pentagon (which currently directly oversees
             | TF Lima, is where CDAO is based out of, and collaborates
             | closely with SPACECOM) has also very publicly shot down
             | these claims.
             | 
             | [3] Boring explanation: he's making it all up.
        
               | WillPostForFood wrote:
               | _Iran does not have a strong drone program_
               | 
               | They punch above their weight, and have one of the most
               | battle tested drone program besides the US.
               | 
               | https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Documents/News/Military_P
               | owe...
        
               | cuuupid wrote:
               | This release just links Iranian technology to UAVs used
               | against Ukraine; they are nowhere near the capabilities
               | of top military powers. The only country that can claim
               | the #2 spot on the list is China.
               | 
               | To give you an idea of the comparison, Iranian drones are
               | not even close capability wise to a Reaper. The Reaper is
               | damn near EOL as it was developed in 2007(!) and is
               | basically caveman technology compared to what we are
               | currently running.
        
               | WillPostForFood wrote:
               | _they are nowhere near the capabilities of top military
               | powers_
               | 
               | Russia is a top military power, and they use Iranian
               | drones.
               | 
               | BTW, I didn't say they were number 2, I said they were
               | battle tested unlike other top programs, like China'.
               | Iran's drones are currently actively being used in two
               | wars (vs Ukraine, vs Israel).
               | 
               | I don't think there are Iranian drones in NJ, but it
               | isn't because they don't have a capable program. It's
               | because it makes no sense.
        
               | cuuupid wrote:
               | Russia is not a top military power when it comes to
               | technology, and probably not manpower after bleeding out
               | in Ukraine.
               | 
               | There are plenty of advanced drone programs that are
               | "battle tested." They are successful and so you do not
               | hear about them :)
               | 
               | I maintain the Iranian drone program is incapable. They
               | are very similar to the Ukrainian drones, botched
               | together and little more than big model airplanes with
               | explosives inside. They neither have the capability to
               | get a ship onto our shores, nor to launch drones
               | undetected, nor to pilot them undetected, nor to evade
               | our defenses and intelligence network.
        
               | quantadev wrote:
               | Whatever these drones are they're smart enough to vanish
               | once we try to tail them. It's likely not simply Iranian
               | tech. Remember China and Iran are allies, and sharing
               | technology. If China wanted to prove something to the
               | USA, they could easily let Iran do it, simply to cause
               | less of an "International Incident" if the truth comes
               | out of what's going on. My hunch is that it's a Chinese
               | Technology Demonstration, and the "mothership" might be
               | nothing more than a cargo container on a cargo ship. That
               | would go totally unnoticed by our military sensor arrays.
        
             | slt2021 wrote:
             | if you trust congressman's word (purchased by AIPAC for 30
             | shekels), you are lost
        
               | quantadev wrote:
               | But there's also a reason CNN (and most MSM) have lost
               | all credibility. People finally realized which side has
               | indeed been lying basically nonstop for the past 10
               | years.
        
           | ncr100 wrote:
           | 1. Local air taxi service is testing, per some random YouTube
           | comment.
        
           | DiscourseFan wrote:
           | Fort Dix, which is an airforce base, is in New Jersey.
           | Wouldn't be surprised if it was them. There was an incident
           | some years ago when a very strange supersonic noise blasted
           | out from that area and the government was very quiet about
           | it.
        
             | cuuupid wrote:
             | I haven't been highside in almost a year now so I don't
             | purport to know the actual operation behind this, BUT I
             | would place my money on testing surveillance systems and
             | on-device tracking modules. CDAO has been investing very
             | publicly in these areas alongside the Maven program and TF
             | Lima. They need a lot of good data on populated areas to
             | make this work; they also can't risk testing this in
             | warzones where a downed drone will both [1] leak advances
             | in technology we have made since Reapers and [2] expose the
             | on-device models they have in place. Could even be a vendor
             | trying to evaluate their models; there is nothing
             | particularly illegal about these drones.
        
             | stephencanon wrote:
             | I'd just like to interject for a moment. What you're
             | referring to as Fort Dix, is in fact, Joint Base McGuire-
             | Dix-Lakehurst, or as the DOD has recently taken to calling
             | it, JB MDL. Fort Dix is not an army base unto itself, but
             | rather another component of a fully functioning tri-force
             | base hosted by the Air Force and including units from all
             | six service branches.
        
           | hshshshshsh wrote:
           | I feel like you already have decided that this is safe and
           | then are using "boring" explanations to back that narrative.
           | This is easy cause nothing bad has happened in a while so
           | it's less cognitive dissonance to go with that narrative.
           | 
           | Have you even tried coming up with boring explanations on how
           | this could be not safe?
           | 
           | Also why specifically boring explanations? Plenty of
           | incidents have dramatic explanations. How do you know when to
           | pick what? Is the idea most incidents have boring
           | explanations? And what happens when there is a black swan and
           | you fuck up because you only relied on boring explanations?
           | Shouldn't you be doing some sort of probability distributions
           | instead?
        
             | cuuupid wrote:
             | The DoD has very publicly stated that these are safe; I
             | know Americans have a lot of distrust in their military but
             | when it comes to matters of national security and defense
             | the intel community is more or less omniscient.
             | 
             | Knowing the current capabilities of the military, there is
             | also no possibility that this is not safe and yet cannot be
             | handled after this long, which kinda rules out any boring
             | explanation.
             | 
             | When it comes to matters of UFOs, drones, and lights in the
             | sky, it has only ever been a boring explanation. I think
             | people want very much for it to be fantastical, but often
             | times the boring reality is still very dramatic if you step
             | back and consider we're talking about secret testing of
             | highly advanced drones.
        
               | ribadeo wrote:
               | No, the DOD has NOT "declared them safe"
               | 
               | Please confirm the actual statement made.
               | 
               | No evidence of harm as of yet, or somesuch.
        
               | cuuupid wrote:
               | From Singh earlier today: https://www.defense.gov/News/Tr
               | anscripts/Transcript/Article/...
               | 
               | > at no point were our installations threatened when this
               | activity was occurring
               | 
               | > What our initial assessment here is that these are not
               | drones or activities coming from a foreign entity or
               | adversary
               | 
               | > initial assessments are that these are drones and
               | potentially, you know, could be small airplanes
               | 
               | > But I think what's also important to remember is that
               | at no time were our military installations or our people
               | ever under any threat
               | 
               | This is about as declarative as the Pentagon will get on
               | the matter
        
               | 8note wrote:
               | this is mind you, a specific form of satefy in that they
               | didnt consider it a threat to the US military.
               | 
               | thats not to say it wouldnt be healthy for you if it
               | crashed and caught your house on fire.
               | 
               | safe is more than "not a threat"
        
               | cuuupid wrote:
               | By the same definition every helicopter, plane, kid
               | flying a drone, even car on the road is not "safe."
               | 
               | It's the same way I can call a system reliable when it is
               | 3 9's, but that doesn't imply 100% guaranteed uptime. Or
               | a statistician can reject a hypothesis that has a low
               | enough p-value but still more than 0. Or how health
               | systems and procedures are considered safe above a
               | threshold, or how we consider condoms safe sex while
               | understanding they are not 100% effective.
               | 
               | I'm finding it frustrating that when it comes to UFOs,
               | people tend to isolate the most remote possibilities.
        
             | nine_k wrote:
             | If the military proclaimed these drones safe and are not
             | shooting them down like crazy, these drones are likely
             | reasonably safe, and are not an enemy that the US military,
             | arguably the top one in the world, would fight.
             | 
             | A possible bad explanation: the US military actually would
             | love to shoot down these drones, but cannot, because e.g.
             | they are known to contain smallpox virus, dangerous
             | radioactive contaminants, etc. These would be released at
             | the slightest attempt to sound alarms or interfere. Someone
             | caught them unawares and is now enjoying impunity.
             | 
             | A worse version: the US military and/or government is
             | complicit, actually overrun by aliens / reptiloids /
             | crackpots, and is allowing an invasion.
             | 
             | Etc.
             | 
             | Which version looks more plausible, any of these, or that
             | the US military is testing something that can fly, but
             | keeps the lips tight?
        
               | ribadeo wrote:
               | The military did NOT "declare them safe".
               | 
               | A spokesperson said that there was no proven harm done or
               | something to that effect, as i particularly noted this
               | oddball statement for what it was.
               | 
               | Please do go back and confirm.
               | 
               | I also think that any threat actor would attempt to
               | dampen down alarm. GIVEN Putins proclivity and
               | capabilities in convincing a cerain percentage of
               | decadent western nations (tm) populations of certain
               | scenarios in world power mongering, i dont see a brazen
               | foreign drone surveillance campaign as out of the
               | question.
               | 
               | Mind you, i did not allege that this is such, but that
               | dismissal of such is currently impossible and unwise.
        
               | cuuupid wrote:
               | I believe they very explicitly said they pose no threat
               | and also explicitly ruled out foreign entities and
               | adversaries.
               | 
               | I talked about this in another comment but Putin/Russia
               | and Iran could never be contenders for this. If it was a
               | foreign entity it would pretty much be limited to China
               | in terms of capability & readiness.
        
             | Vegenoid wrote:
             | > Also why specifically boring explanations?
             | 
             | Without referring to anything specific about this case,
             | things usually have boring explanations because what makes
             | an explanation boring is that it is expected and
             | empirically likely.
             | 
             | "The most likely explanation is the most boring one" is
             | practically a tautology, because "boring" practically means
             | "likely" in regards to explanations of events.
        
           | keepamovin wrote:
           | The problem with the "secret testing over civilian areas"
           | idea is that it's self-contradicting.
           | 
           | So you think the military and intelligence has technology
           | that is so secret they won't admit to it, but they're so
           | uninterested in protecting that they're testing them willy
           | nilly over populated areas??
           | 
           | The other contradiction is risk: so you have an aerial
           | technology test and you do it over US civilian populations
           | and military bases over long periods in large numbers, not
           | caring about risk of an object crashing, nor of triggering a
           | mistaken response or misinterpretation by US or another
           | nation, and without a NOTAM to protect aircraft?
           | 
           | None of that scans.
           | 
           | The other point is this is not limited to New Jersey and the
           | United Kingdom.
        
             | cuuupid wrote:
             | > So you think the military and intelligence has technology
             | that is so secret they won't admit to it, but they're so
             | uninterested in protecting that they're testing them willy
             | nilly over populated areas??
             | 
             | The explicit purpose of most advances in drone technology
             | over the last ~20 years is not to be the biggest baddest
             | weapon in the sky, but to be a hard to catch camera that
             | sees everything and knows everything. That is also the
             | biggest drone program that I am aware of and the explicit
             | purpose of Maven.
             | 
             | > The other contradiction is risk: so you have an aerial
             | technology test and you do it over US civilian populations
             | and military bases over long periods in large numbers, not
             | caring about risk of an object crashing, nor of triggering
             | a mistaken response or misinterpretation by US or another
             | nation, and without a NOTAM to protect aircraft?
             | 
             | The latter part of your question is the answer to the
             | former. If we conduct tests abroad, we risk a response or
             | the tech getting stolen. We need somewhere to test it, so
             | we test it here. There is pretty low risk of these
             | crashing, and civilians would not have the technology
             | needed to down these drones (this capability would be
             | pretty thoroughly tested in unpopulated areas).
             | 
             | We do issue NOTAMs when drones are in airspace, these are
             | low flying and so do not warrant any notice.
        
               | keepamovin wrote:
               | That's fair about NOTAM's if they are low flying, how do
               | you know they're low flying?
               | 
               | Your answer sounds official. Is this an official answer
               | from someone in the military or IC? You say "these
               | drones" - do you know unequivocally what they are?
               | 
               | How does the purpose of the Maven drone program you
               | mention resolve the contradiction of testing a classified
               | program that cannot be acknowledged, over civilian areas
               | willy nilly? What is the purpose of a secret surveillance
               | platform that is now an international news story? That
               | goes against how such platforms are protected. So many
               | contradictions.
               | 
               | These were also spotted in the UK over multiple bases
               | (RAF Lakenheath, etc). Even if this were a test of our
               | own technology, there's a lot of risk, and a lot of
               | unknown and concern among officials who are in the dark,
               | which creates more risk. It does not scan.
               | 
               | I don't really think you've provided answers that resolve
               | these questions. I think it's legitimate that everybody
               | has questions and there's a lot unknown. You seem to be
               | saying you have the answers. Is that how you feel? Is
               | that what you're saying?
        
               | cuuupid wrote:
               | All of the media sightings I have seen about these so far
               | has been low flying. I don't deny that we have very high
               | flying drones but I doubt they would be tested without
               | NOTAMs (over CONUS).
               | 
               | > Your answer sounds official. Is this an official answer
               | from someone in the military or IC?
               | 
               | Not official - I have not been part of the IC for about a
               | year now. I can't talk about my background there without
               | doxxing.
               | 
               | > How does the purpose of the Maven drone program you
               | mention resolve the contradiction of testing a classified
               | program that cannot be acknowledged, over civilian areas
               | willy nilly?
               | 
               | I don't think I can answer this without doxxing or
               | leaking, but there are a lot of public communications on
               | MSS, its goals, what it involves, etc. and its recent
               | expansions.
               | 
               | > These were also spotted in the UK over multiple bases
               | (RAF Lakenheath, etc). Even if this were a test of our
               | own technology, there's a lot of risk, and a lot of
               | unknown and concern among officials who are in the dark,
               | which creates more risk. It does not scan.
               | 
               | I haven't seen any reports of these; my gut reaction
               | would be to suspect these are not drones and just regular
               | aircraft. I wouldn't rule out drone tech (UK is in FVEY)
               | but don't think it is likely.
               | 
               | I'm not saying it is necessarily ethical or a correct
               | thing that these programs have such infrequent and
               | limited oversight. I'm just quoting the reality (at least
               | up to last year).
               | 
               | > You seem to be saying you have the answers. Is that how
               | you feel? Is that what you're saying?
               | 
               | I'm just applying a framework that typically works for me
               | and my existing knowledge of these programs. I'm not
               | actively in the IC and can't definitely say I'm 100%
               | right, but I don't see any other explanations at this
               | point.
               | 
               | If you are looking for 100% answers there are probably
               | entire chatrooms and threads dedicated to this on
               | chatsurfer by now :)
        
               | keepamovin wrote:
               | 100% answers? I'm the one asking the questions, you're
               | the one who seems confident. I just wanted to understand
               | from what basis your confidence arises.
               | 
               | Here's 1 high flying UFO (50k feet):
               | https://x.com/rosscoulthart/status/1866994569088573838
               | 
               | I can't accept the blanket "trust us, we're the IC",
               | because it's not credible. More so because how
               | credibility has been surrendered by officials in IC on
               | this topic through historical deception on UAP/UFO/NHI.
               | Even more so when there's a motivation to lie to protect
               | the secret that you don't control your skies, when that's
               | your mandate.
               | 
               | There has to be a reckoning with truth if we hope to
               | advance, and I actually see the Pentagon statement as +ve
               | progress on that. In the larger context of this story,
               | it's a bit of an acapella solo atop a harmony of voices
               | from military saying "We don't control our airspace.
               | There's unknown objects arising from non human
               | intelligence." People include: Ryan Graves, Tim
               | Gallaudet, Luis Elizondo, Chris Mellon, Jay Stratton,
               | David Grusch, Karl Nell.
               | 
               | It's disappointing that with your IC "frameworks" you
               | didn't even realistically consider "other explanations";
               | maybe such possible blindspots have been part of the
               | problem institutionally, which is sad - because those are
               | the ones who should be on top of it.
               | 
               | Or maybe you're just being a good soldier and still have
               | NDAs, or never knew. Anyway, if you're interested I
               | encourage you to go down that UFO/NHI rabbithole!
               | Fascinating stuff. I bet you'd do great work on it, too,
               | with you analytic skills. Give it a try maybe :)
               | 
               | There's plenty in this comment to get you started.
               | So...go for it! :) And the UK stuff can be searched
               | easily, for example: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-air-
               | force-drone-sightings-uk... and if you're keen on
               | rabbitholing here's two more to suck you in :)
               | 
               | - https://www.liberationtimes.com/home/usaf-confirms-
               | drone-inc...
               | 
               | - https://www.liberationtimes.com/home/uk-drone-
               | incursions-adv...
        
             | Vegenoid wrote:
             | > So you think the military and intelligence has technology
             | that is so secret they won't admit to it
             | 
             | It's more like "does not have to disclose anything so
             | chooses not to".
             | 
             | When you are in the long game of keeping your information
             | and intentions secret, you don't reveal anything if you
             | don't have to. They do need to test low flying aircraft in
             | populous areas. They don't need to say anything about it.
             | 
             | It's like when you're a kid, and your friends are trying to
             | get you to admit who you have a crush on. If you actually
             | want to keep it secret, you have to provide the same
             | response to every question they ask, otherwise you are
             | revealing information. If you say "no" truthfully to some
             | questions but then refuse to say "no" untruthfully to other
             | questions, then they can just pepper you with enough
             | questions to triangulate what they want to know. Or you can
             | just say "no comment" to everything but people take that
             | worse.
        
               | 8note wrote:
               | if youre good at it, youll triangulate the questioners to
               | the wrong conclusion, rather than leave them with no
               | conclusion
        
               | keepamovin wrote:
               | Lying to your population is not good. Especially when
               | it's about the nature of reality.
        
               | keepamovin wrote:
               | Hahaha funny metaphor but I don't think it's like that.
               | It's more like they don't want to say if they can't
               | control it, if it makes them look bad.
               | 
               | In your world, where is the precedent of extensive
               | prolonged testing of secret tech over populated areas in
               | full view?
               | 
               | But more important it doesn't make sense: it's either
               | secret or you can test it so it becomes a news story.
               | It's not both hahaha :)
        
         | keepamovin wrote:
         | What 'commercially available' aircraft can operate for at least
         | 6 - 7 hours, sized up to 6 feet, not always detectable by FLIR,
         | evade detection by helicopters, don't always use lights, have a
         | range of at least 15 miles, are not obeying FAA line of sight
         | regulations for night flights (all per the statewide briefing
         | provided to NJ legislators yesterday:
         | https://x.com/DawnFantasia_NJ/status/1866896860578717994) , and
         | are assessed by the Pentagon yesterday (https://www.youtube.com
         | /live/gSIKXMt4qHk?si=HafZLJzX8lUqQvrd...) to not originate in
         | the US or any other nation?
         | 
         | What extra-terrestrial amazon.com or Weyland-Yutani
         | intergalactic commerce do you have access to haha? :)
         | 
         | Also, videos of the 'drones' show them hovering for long
         | periods, so they're not conventional fixed wing craft. I think
         | local officials should put together some investigative task
         | forces using local scientists, engineers and commercial
         | providers that have access to good electronic intelligence
         | surveillance capabilities and get more data so we can see more
         | and know more about this.
        
           | Vegenoid wrote:
           | > are assessed by the Pentagon yesterday to not originate in
           | the US or any other nation
           | 
           | To be clear, they stated that "these are not US military
           | drones", and that they have no evidence that they are from a
           | foreign entity or adversary, which is very different from
           | what I interpreted you as saying.
        
             | keepamovin wrote:
             | You interpreted me as saying?
        
               | comp_throw7 wrote:
               | "are assessed by the Pentagon yesterday... to not
               | originate in the US or any other nation" = "the Pentagon
               | claims to actively know that the drones aren't from any
               | publicly-known line of drone models"
        
               | keepamovin wrote:
               | Well that's not exactly what they said. Here's the
               | transcript:
               | 
               | "at this time we have no evidence that these activities
               | are coming from a foreign entity or the work of an
               | adversary...these are not US military drones"
               | 
               | What do you make of that?
        
               | comp_throw7 wrote:
               | I didn't say they said that. You asked what the other
               | poster interpreted you as saying.
        
               | keepamovin wrote:
               | Right but how would you know how the other person
               | interpreted it? What you said is not what I said. What I
               | said is just a paraphrase of the Pentagon statement. How
               | is it very different hahaha? :)
        
               | Vegenoid wrote:
               | I interpreted your statement as "the Pentagon has
               | assessed the drones and determined that they did not
               | originate in the US or any other nation".
        
               | keepamovin wrote:
               | Basically yeah, there's some room for interpretation, but
               | the key thing is the exact words the Pentagon spokesmen
               | used are:
               | 
               |  _" at this time we have no evidence that these
               | activities are coming from a foreign entity or the work
               | of an adversary...these are not US military drones"_
               | 
               | The linked video starts at the relevant timestamp.
        
               | craftsman wrote:
               | > "are assessed by the Pentagon yesterday to not
               | originate in the US or any other nation"
               | 
               | This statement logically means that:
               | 
               | * The Pentagon assessed (determined) that X is true
               | 
               | * Where X is defined as "The drones do not originate in
               | the US or any other nation"
               | 
               | That is different than the statement:
               | 
               | * The Pentagon has stated that (a) X is false, and (b)
               | they have no evidence that Y is true.
               | 
               | * Where X is defined as "The drones are US military
               | assets"
               | 
               | * Where Y is defined as "The drones originate from and/or
               | are assets of a foreign nation or adversary."
        
               | keepamovin wrote:
               | For clarity the exact words the Pentagon staff in the
               | video used are:
               | 
               | "at this time we have no evidence that these activities
               | are coming from a foreign entity or the work of an
               | adversary...these are not US military drones"
               | 
               | What's your thoughts?
        
               | craftsman wrote:
               | I'd just revise the second part of my post to:
               | 
               | That is different than the statement:
               | 
               | * The Pentagon has stated that (a) X is true, and (b)
               | they have no evidence that Y is true.
               | 
               | * Where X is defined as "These are not US military
               | drones"
               | 
               | * Where Y is defined as "these activities are coming from
               | a foreign entity or the work of an adversary"
        
               | keepamovin wrote:
               | I guess "US commercial drones" is the gap or intersection
               | of the relevant Venn diagrams, but that doesn't make
               | sense. Why would you test them over a military base?
               | 
               | I think we can apply some Gaussian blur and assume the
               | statement is an approximate fit to the meaning by
               | remembering that: this was a statement provided by a
               | human in real time, ad libbing in response to a press
               | question. They didn't spend hours drafting it to
               | elucidate all possible logical connections and deftly
               | conceal the unstated meaning by crafting some inference
               | puzzle. Hahaha! :)
               | 
               | Communication between people is successful
               | miscommunication. It's not an API - remember that,
               | engineer! :)
        
               | gredbeard wrote:
               | Not "military" drones seems very very open to
               | interpretation. Is DARPA Military? Or is military being
               | used in a generic sense of the dictionary definition vs.
               | the US government budgetary definition?
               | 
               | My assumption is these are US military drones.
        
               | keepamovin wrote:
               | I'm guessing "Defense Advanced Research" is pretty
               | military haha :)
        
               | tw04 wrote:
               | If anduril, for instance, sends the US military some new
               | drones to try out, it is not technically a false
               | statement for the military to say they aren't military
               | drones.
               | 
               | The wording, imo, is intentionally very vague.
        
               | 8note wrote:
               | confirmed that jesus has returned as an alien to bring
               | about the apocalypse.
               | 
               | but uhh, the most standard thing is that its some weather
               | balloon put up by an undergrad student who isnt aware of
               | the relevant regulations theyre supposed to be following
               | and whod really prefer to ask forgiveness than permission
        
               | keepamovin wrote:
               | Well this is a ridiculous take. They are flying around
               | powered. Check out the vids.
        
             | conductr wrote:
             | What evidence do they have though? I'm going with none and
             | it seems odd to me they're ok just letting the local law
             | enforcement run point
        
               | Vegenoid wrote:
               | Why would one believe that US intelligence agencies have
               | no information about extensive reports of drone activity
               | near military installations? Given that this has been
               | happening for a couple weeks now, and the military has
               | said "these are not a threat", the clearly more plausible
               | explanation is that they know what these are, and they
               | aren't saying.
               | 
               | This is what the military does when they are testing
               | classified military technology. "It's not ours. It's not
               | the enemy's. It's not a threat. Nothing to see here."
        
               | keepamovin wrote:
               | Maybe they state that, but they're not going to test it
               | in the open so it's not a secret.
        
               | keepamovin wrote:
               | Can you really assume they have no evidence?
               | 
               | You'd hope they'd have sensors and analysis capable of
               | forming some conclusions, such as tracing the drones to a
               | origin point, or classifying based on signature, etc.
               | 
               | They've haven't provided much and there's a lot of
               | questions unanswered, but they've said unequivocally what
               | they think the origin is not.
        
           | EGreg wrote:
           | Honestly you can drive down the Gowanus expressway any day of
           | the week in NYC and see these mysterious large drones somehow
           | sitting up in the air for HOURS, silently. You can see their
           | lights as they hover, if you are coming from the tunnel to
           | the verazzano bridge. What kind of battery tech do they have!
           | Who flies them??
        
             | keepamovin wrote:
             | Cool. What do you think? Have you tried to record them? Do
             | they make any noise? How low do you think they are? :)
        
               | EGreg wrote:
               | Yes, I have recorded them, they are there for hours every
               | night, every car can see them
               | 
               | Thought they were official, watching traffic
               | 
               | My thoughts are -- how do their batteries last that long
               | at night?
        
           | throwup238 wrote:
           | _> What extra-terrestrial amazon.com or Weyland-Yutani
           | intergalactic commerce do you have access to haha? :)_
           | 
           | I got a guy at Wolfram & Hart.
        
         | pcdoodle wrote:
         | Isn't it illegal to have unannounced drones flying about?
         | They're not trackable any public platform. Screw that.
        
         | davidw wrote:
         | A decent percentage of the population thinks that the president
         | of the US can control the weather.
         | 
         | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-not-controlling-the-...
         | 
         | The fact of the matter is that a lot of people have rotten,
         | worm-riddled cabbage for brains.
        
           | throw10920 wrote:
           | Where in that article does it state the percentage of people
           | that believe that?
        
           | vasco wrote:
           | Of course the government can control the weather, what are
           | you on about:
           | 
           | > In the United States, cloud seeding is used to increase
           | precipitation in areas experiencing drought, to reduce the
           | size of hailstones that form in thunderstorms, and to reduce
           | the amount of fog in and around airports. In the summer of
           | 1948, the usually humid city of Alexandria, Louisiana, under
           | Mayor Carl B. Close, seeded a cloud with dry ice at the
           | municipal airport during a drought; quickly 0.85 inches (22
           | mm) of rain fell.[77]
           | 
           | > Major ski resorts occasionally use cloud seeding to induce
           | snowfall. Eleven western states and one Canadian province
           | (Alberta) had ongoing weather modification operational
           | programs in 2012.[78] In 2006, an $8.8 million project began
           | in Wyoming to examine cloud seeding's effects on snowfall
           | over Wyoming's Medicine Bow, Sierra Madre, and Wind River
           | mountain ranges.[79]
           | 
           | > In Oregon, Portland General Electric used Hood River
           | seeding to produce snow for hydro power in 1974-1975. The
           | results were substantial, but caused an undue burden on the
           | locals, who experienced overpowering rainfall, causing street
           | collapses and mudslides. PGE discontinued its seeding
           | practices the next year.[80]
           | 
           | > In 1978, the U.S. signed the Environmental Modification
           | Convention, which bans the use of weather modification for
           | hostile purposes.[81]
           | 
           | > As of 2022, seven agencies in California are conducting
           | cloud seeding operations using silver iodide, including the
           | Sacramento Municipal Utility District, which began employing
           | the technique in 1969 to increase the water supply to its
           | hydroelectric power plants, and reported that it results in
           | "an average of 3 to 10% increase in [Sierra Nevada]
           | snowpack".[82]
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_seeding#:~:text=In%20t.
           | ..
        
             | squeaky-clean wrote:
             | That's not "controlling the weather" anymore than a person
             | with a box of matches can control fire.
        
               | vasco wrote:
               | I literally agree with the second sentence. Humans
               | control fire. If we can make it rain whenever we want we
               | also control the weather. If they didn't they wouldn't
               | need laws preventing them from overdoing it.
        
             | 8note wrote:
             | the alberta cloud seeding program isnt controlling the
             | weather, its blunting it. the storm still comes by
        
           | mmooss wrote:
           | > The fact of the matter is that a lot of people have rotten,
           | worm-riddled cabbage for brains.
           | 
           | Does that comment reflect intelligence?
        
       | 65 wrote:
       | What if it's just someone testing a New Year's drone show?
        
       | walrus01 wrote:
       | The idea that mystery nefarious drone operators would be sending
       | up things with blinking red and green navigation lights on them
       | is patently absurd. As others have pointed out in this thread,
       | there's a lot of more mundane explanations.
        
         | ungreased0675 wrote:
         | What if the lights are how they are controlled and pass data,
         | rather than an RF link?
        
           | pavel_lishin wrote:
           | That's as plausible as them beaming spy data directly into
           | the operator's brains via midichlorians.
        
           | walrus01 wrote:
           | Exceedingly unlikely in my opinion, I've seen pictures/videos
           | of these mystery drones and they look exactly like commercial
           | aircraft white, red and green navigation lights. Or the red
           | and green lights you would see on the end of the arms on a
           | COTS DJI/Autel/competitor type UAV.
        
           | pyth0 wrote:
           | What if the moon were made of cheese?
        
             | ungreased0675 wrote:
             | https://lifi.co/lifi-applications/aerospace/ The technology
             | is real, and the application is plausible, why the down
             | votes?
        
         | alchemist1e9 wrote:
         | it seems the videos posted with blinking red and green
         | navigation lights are actually not representative of the drone
         | sightings authorities are investigating but instead represent a
         | side effect of the mania with people posting videos of private
         | aircrafts as everyone is looking up and trying to record the
         | "drones" but doesn't realize the aircraft have been there all
         | along and first they are paying attention.
         | 
         | The real drones go dark and evade helicopters.
        
         | PepperdineG wrote:
         | Also it can depend on what people consider nefarious. For a
         | long time I noticed drone coverage over my area regularly at
         | night, which how they were operating over a populated area
         | would be illegal for a civilian. Eventually I figured it out to
         | be law enforcement drones. It's perfectly legal for there to be
         | cop drones but people might consider them nefarious and law
         | enforcement has been taking a boiled frog approach to drone
         | acceptance.
        
         | standardUser wrote:
         | It could be some politicians are leveraging the situation to
         | get stricter drone laws passed. It should be unnerving to all
         | of us that any semi-intelligent person with a few thousand
         | bucks could weaponize a drone and send it off to wreak havoc.
         | I'm not a drone enthusiast, but it seems like the level of
         | regulation and enforcement has fallen way behind the access to
         | the technology.
        
       | partiallypro wrote:
       | This is the biggest mass hysteria I can remember. People are
       | sharing video of things that are very obviously airplanes and
       | helicopters. I'm sure there are some drones but that isn't 95%+
       | of what people are seeing.
       | 
       | This is honestly terrifying, because it's baffling people can't
       | determine what is generally regular aircraft (some of these
       | videos are SO obviously planes coming in for a landing, with jet
       | engine noises and all) and the other is that eventually some nut
       | is going to open fire on a commercial airliner just coming in for
       | a landing because they think it's China or aliens or something.
       | That won't take down the plane but could hit someone inside.
       | People need to chill.
       | 
       | I think drones are a new threat for various reasons (look at
       | Ukrainian war footage, it's absolutely terrifying) but while I'm
       | sure there were -some- drones, probably a mix between government
       | and hobbyist...uh, the overreaction to it is seriously worrying.
       | The US is turning into a land of paranoia.
       | 
       | Side note, it's very difficult to determine the size and altitude
       | of something even in the daytime, so at night it's even harder.
       | These "car sized" drones could literally just be the size of a
       | larger DJI drone. The media and government officials feeding into
       | this is bad.
        
         | mr_toad wrote:
         | > This is the biggest mass hysteria I can remember.
         | 
         | The biggest panic about unidentified flying objects in New
         | Jersey since October 30 1938.
        
           | partiallypro wrote:
           | This is going to shock you, but I wasn't alive in 1938, which
           | is why I would have no memory of it. I would venture to guess
           | you weren't either.
        
         | stevenhuang wrote:
         | Why are you so certain it must be mass hysteria and not UAP?
         | What are your piors? Are you a resident of NJ? Are you familiar
         | with the UAP phenomenon?
         | 
         | I venture you are neither of these.
        
           | partiallypro wrote:
           | For starters the Pentagon's AARO office, which is over
           | monitoring UAPs has told reporters they have received 0
           | reports regarding UAPs over this "drone" stuff. Second, while
           | I don't live in New Jersey, I have friends that do live in
           | this area, and they have told me it's mostly mass hysteria.
           | So, I venture to guess you're quite wrong.
           | 
           | Finally, I think it's quite dangerous if people are saying we
           | should shoot down unknown aircraft, especially when it's very
           | likely commercial airliners. That is not just conjecture,
           | that is what people are saying online and to reporters -in
           | person-. Seems like an important part of my post, which you
           | seem to have conveniently ignored. Get just one person hyped
           | up and they could shoot off in the air, and even if they
           | don't hit the aircraft, that bullet it landing somewhere.
        
             | stevenhuang wrote:
             | For starters, it seems you are unaware that AARO is
             | considered compromised and is this era's project bluebook
             | 2.0.
             | 
             | You have demonstrated you are not informed.
             | 
             | Check back in a few months time and you'll come around.
             | 
             | https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/1gv9o56/how_do_we_kn
             | o...
        
         | left-struck wrote:
         | While your concern is still totally valid, if a civilian
         | mistakes a 747 for a drone and shoots at it with anything but a
         | laser, they're gonna miss lol. It will probably be out of range
         | in fact.
         | 
         | In other words, if you're within 1km (0.6 miles) of a large
         | passenger jet, you're absolutely not mistaking it for a drone.
        
       | throwthis1287 wrote:
       | The Guardian in 2017 (https://www.theguardian.com/us-
       | news/2017/aug/03/secret-servi...):
       | 
       |  _Secret Service will deploy drones to watch Trump during golfing
       | vacation_
       | 
       | The Guardian in 2024 (this submission):
       | 
       |  _Concerns have focused on drones spotted near the Bedminster
       | golf course of president-elect Donald Trump, as well as sensitive
       | infrastructure including electric transmission sights, rail
       | stations and police departments._
       | 
       | After the Butler assassination attempt, there have been numerous
       | criticisms that the FBI did not use surveillance drones on the
       | site. I would not be surprised if 50% of drone sightings _are_
       | government surveillance drones and the rest are just hobbyist
       | photographers etc.
        
       | Eumenes wrote:
       | The US military can track and engage ICBMs moving at 15k MPH but
       | can't identity drones above residential neighborhoods in the
       | continental US? They really do believe we're stupid.
        
         | dboreham wrote:
         | Based on this post they're right.
        
         | emchammer wrote:
         | Those are different types of radars and they are pointed in
         | different directions.
        
         | talldayo wrote:
         | Quadcopters occupy the same flight regime as most clutter does:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clutter_(radar)
         | 
         | Truth is, a Patriot system would probably also miss something
         | like this unless it had special SHORAD or CIWS defenses
         | alongside it. A lot of these drones are going to be invisible
         | to conventional radar if they want to be.
        
       | RecycledEle wrote:
       | Just wait. Some startup will confess, just like many of the
       | balloons were hobbyists, students, and clubs.
        
       | GenerocUsername wrote:
       | I wish we as people could have meaningful conversations on the
       | internet.
       | 
       | To clarify some common logical issues I see spread across dozens
       | of responses in this thread:
       | 
       | Drones != Quadcopters
       | 
       | Drones COULD use a housing to mimics common aircraft or
       | helicopters.
       | 
       | The military and FBI do not commonly monitor ALL airspace at all
       | times beyond air-traffic radar.
       | 
       | The government is not a hive-mind and individuals only know what
       | they know despite the fact the are asked to make statements.
        
       | dukeofdoom wrote:
       | I fly drones, sometimes even to me a drone can look suspiciously
       | unnatural. Especially at night the way the drone moves abruptly
       | with all the led lights, its difficult to judge its distance.
       | 
       | But ... what if Aliens and Ghosts are the same thing? DaDaDa!
        
       | xyst wrote:
       | Reminds me of the Chinese balloon incident of 2023 [1]
       | 
       | Unsubstantiated theory, but maybe a foreign adversary scanning
       | ground for targets? Critical east coast transmission lines and
       | substations in NJ possibly a target?
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Chinese_balloon_inciden...
        
         | jncfhnb wrote:
         | You can see these things with satellites
        
           | op00to wrote:
           | Or airplanes. Like the ones flying overhead all the time in
           | N.J.
        
             | hedora wrote:
             | Or here:
             | 
             | https://felt.com/explore/us-electric-power-transmission-
             | line...
             | 
             | (Account signup required.)
        
       | cynicalpeace wrote:
       | A lot of people here are writing this off as hysteria.
       | 
       | I don't know if this is anything nefarious or not, but I would
       | note that being suspicious of these things is often a good thing,
       | not a bad thing.
       | 
       | Even Michael Shermer, the famed skeptic, wrote a book on how
       | suspecting conspiracy is often a valid default stance. Abstract
       | from his book:
       | 
       | "One reason that people believe these conspiracies, Shermer
       | argues, is that enough of them are real that we should be
       | constructively conspiratorial: elections have been rigged (LBJ's
       | 1948 Senate race); medical professionals have intentionally
       | harmed patients in their care (Tuskegee); your government does
       | lie to you (Watergate, Iran-Contra, and Afghanistan)"
       | 
       | There are obviously people that always suspect conspiracy, and
       | that's not good. But it's equally not good to always suspect a
       | benign explanation, which is the majority of this thread.
       | 
       | Just adding a different perspective to this community.
        
         | aliasxneo wrote:
         | I do find it rather hard to make sense of the antagonism here.
         | My only guess is people feel the need to distance themselves
         | from the "sheep" and do so by ridiculing them from their ivory
         | tower. In some cases it's the same thing, but there's a
         | political bent added to it ("some people" from "that side").
         | 
         | Sad to see what HN is slowly devolving into.
        
           | binary132 wrote:
           | It's probably an organized group of shills / bots trying to
           | discredit and downplay the concerns so it doesn't get out of
           | hand. ;)
        
           | gg2222 wrote:
           | Agreed. If it is mass hysteria why doesn't the government
           | just say so instead of saying "they don't know".
           | 
           | Some people just can't accept not "knowing it all".
        
       | demarq wrote:
       | This is the "Iraq has WMD" for this generation.
       | 
       | It's just laying the ground work for some insidious nonsense.
        
         | mkoubaa wrote:
         | I'm already seeing the propaganda wheels rolling on X blaming
         | Iran.
        
       | geor9e wrote:
       | A more accurate headline would be ...prompts one New Jersey
       | legislator on social media to call...
        
       | Joel_Mckay wrote:
       | The BlackFly is an Ultralight Aircraft originally designed by
       | OPENER in Canada, and is a single-seat personal aerial vehicle
       | (PAV).
       | 
       | It appears a few clowns are illegally flying something similar in
       | the US air space, and over populated areas (FAA will hit hard on
       | this point.)
       | 
       | That odd looking air-frame design is very similar, and a simple
       | phone call may put the drama to rest. =3
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pivotal_BlackFly
        
       | paxys wrote:
       | > On Wednesday, the Pentagon responded and addressed the baseless
       | claims from one Republican New Jersey congressman that the drones
       | were from an "Iranian mothership" lying off the coast of the
       | state.
       | 
       | A lot of people in power seem to be panicking because so many
       | international conflicts are dying down in recent months. After a
       | Ukraine-Russia ceasefire how is the military industrial complex
       | going to sustain itself? We need a new boogeyman, asap.
        
       | lxgr wrote:
       | Of course there's the chance that something is actually going on.
       | 
       | But if there isn't, telling people that there's been some strange
       | lights in the sky is a pretty good way to get people to look up
       | at night and receive even more reports about just that.
        
         | le-mark wrote:
         | Adding tho this; It's clearly some business that hasn't been
         | forthcoming about their activities up to now. The drone
         | delivery company Wing.com got a lot of pushback from the public
         | about how noisy their drones are, and spent a lot money making
         | them quieter. Same will happen here.
        
       | pyinstallwoes wrote:
       | This is all quite very strange. I've been down multiple decision
       | trees. Especially since this has been going on for weeks in NJ
       | and then months in the greater vicinity.
        
       | smallmouth wrote:
       | Seems rather eerie reading some of the eyewitness reports. I'm
       | reminded of the mystery airship flap of the late 1800's into the
       | early 1900's. See:
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mystery_airship
       | 
       | https://cdn.centerforinquiry.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/29...
        
       | toofy wrote:
       | why are we ignoring occam's razor here? clearly this is santa
       | testing new sleigh models.
        
       | quantadev wrote:
       | Guided missiles have been illegal for consumer use for decades,
       | and nobody cared. It makes sense that those are a military
       | weapon. I also think drones are a military grade weapon. I've
       | been saying for the past 24 years drones should be illegal. After
       | 9/11 2001, I started saying that. I've also said they will _not_
       | be made illegal _util_ there 's a massive terror attack proving
       | their lethality to the lethargic naive public, who seems to think
       | they're a toy, or that we need Amazon to fly one package at a
       | time, which is nonsense.
        
         | kurtoid wrote:
         | A _lot_ of hobbyists (me included) disagree with you on this
         | one. I think the current Remote ID law (controversial, yes) is
         | a reasonable balance.
        
           | quantadev wrote:
           | Once a high profile attack or assassination happens with
           | remote operated vehicles (drones or high-speed model jets),
           | everyone's minds will change in a heartbeat. For now yeah
           | most people think of drones as toys. It's just a failure of
           | imagination and a failure to predict the obvious future
           | events that are certain to unfold.
        
             | hedora wrote:
             | The US has been murdering civilians overseas with drones
             | for over a decade.
             | 
             | Also, domestically, we have all sorts of school shootings,
             | etc, that don't make the news.
             | 
             | I'm sure if someone in power wanted to ban commercial
             | drones, they could run a propaganda blitz and get the
             | outcome you describe, but we're pretty much a post-truth
             | society at this point.
        
             | logicchains wrote:
             | >Once a high profile attack or assassination happens with
             | remote operated vehicles (drones or high-speed model jets),
             | everyone's minds will change in a heartbeat
             | 
             | Pretty much any high-profile assassination with drones
             | would probably have the support of at least half the
             | population (or even more, in the case of the recent
             | healthcare CEO assassination).
        
         | pontifier wrote:
         | [Blank] doesn't kill people, people kill people.
         | 
         | Lethal action will occur when seen as a solution regardless of
         | the tools available. It's happened throughout human history,
         | and will likely keep happening until we can solve our problems
         | without it.
        
       | irobeth wrote:
       | i'm reminded of a story from around 2012? about an aerial
       | surveillance program where they recorded a bird's-eye view of the
       | city [1?]
       | 
       | they used the footage to solve some cartel murder by playing the
       | footage in reverse to track the origin of the killers
       | 
       | 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Lowrider
        
         | 01100011 wrote:
         | Funny, I just posted this story a couple of days ago. I think
         | it was from 2014. There was a lot of noise about this sort of
         | tech and then it just went quiet. I really doubt this tech is
         | going unused. I suspect something like this was used to track
         | down the CEO killer recently(with a parallel constructed cover
         | story).
        
       | mvcalder wrote:
       | At the risk of being labeled a kook or an idiot, I photographed
       | drones flying over my suburb of Boston neighborhood a few weeks
       | ago. This was about 6am, definitely drones not regular aircraft.
       | I assumed it was something flying out of Hanscom or the city
       | mapping streets. And yes I took photos not video, sorry.
       | 
       | https://photos.app.goo.gl/Lwfn134LqdEp6xbG9
        
         | garbagewoman wrote:
         | why would someone call you a kook for a video of a thing
        
           | mvcalder wrote:
           | I read several comments referring to: idiots, morons,
           | delusional, and hysteria.
        
             | neom wrote:
             | I didn't think you were a kook, I did wonder why you
             | decided to film it in the first place, more the 6am thing,
             | or more it was unusual thing?
        
         | jeffrallen wrote:
         | Looks like a bird with flashlights on it's wings. You're a
         | kook. :)
        
         | IAmGraydon wrote:
         | I mean...police departments use drones all the time. I see them
         | constantly in my metro area and never think much of it.
        
       | jaco6 wrote:
       | The concerns about it being a foreign power seem misplaced.
       | Shouldn't the main concern with drones be domestic terrorism? A
       | civilian could easily buy a small fleet of drones, equip them
       | with small IEDs or sarin gas, and fly them into otherwise secured
       | areas with large crowds. Are there any procedures in place to
       | prevent this?
        
         | kardos wrote:
         | > A civilian could easily buy a small fleet of drones, equip
         | them with small IEDs or sarin gas, and fly them into otherwise
         | secured areas with large crowds.
         | 
         | Easy? Is sarin gas freely available at big-box retailers?
        
           | rolph wrote:
           | the synthetic precursors are.
        
             | 15155 wrote:
             | Which?
             | 
             | All of the weaponized forms involve some pretty nasty
             | flourinated precursor chemicals which themselves are quite
             | toxic -- and controlled.
        
               | rolph wrote:
               | all of them. if you understand chemistry; nasty, quite
               | toxic, and controlled are not barriers.
               | 
               | e.g. isopropyl alcohol.
        
           | 01100011 wrote:
           | Don't underestimate hackers. The internet is supercharging
           | hobbyist hackers in many domains, including electronics,
           | chemistry and bioengineering.
           | 
           | I doubt the precursors to nerve gases(the worst ones, anyway)
           | are readily available, but they are probably a handful of
           | undergrad-level reactions away from easily available
           | chemicals.
        
             | 15155 wrote:
             | > but they are probably a handful of undergrad-level
             | reactions away from easily available chemicals.
             | 
             | It's a bit further than that, and all of the intermediate
             | chemistry is toxic.
        
         | ZYbCRq22HbJ2y7 wrote:
         | Wouldn't a novice likely die synthesizing the amount of sarin
         | needed to kill a large group of people? Then attaching a
         | disbursement mechanism to the drone to make it into a gaseous
         | form, etc. Seems like a lot of high risk effort to _maybe_ have
         | it work.
         | 
         | As for IEDs, the drones used in the Ukraine war use what look
         | to be very effective munitions, and they seem to be only
         | effective against a single target really.
         | 
         | Is that really of concern?
         | 
         | And its not like drones that can carry things are cheap, nor is
         | the way you are hypothesizing about them being used.
        
           | hersko wrote:
           | That's not true. They have drones that can drop multiple rpg
           | warheads or grenades. Imagine a bunch of drones each with ten
           | grenades dropping them over Times Square. I doubt there is
           | anything the NYPD would be able to do.
        
             | ZYbCRq22HbJ2y7 wrote:
             | Do you have any media of those drones that drop "multiple
             | rpg warheads" so I can visualize how large they are?
        
               | 0x000xca0xfe wrote:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baba_Yaga_(aircraft)
        
         | 15155 wrote:
         | RC helicopters have been a thing for decades.
        
           | chasd00 wrote:
           | yeah there's a lot of very very skilled people in these kinds
           | of hobbies. A large RC Airplane + Ardupilot can be turned
           | into a cruise missile pretty easily. The HPR rocketry crowd
           | can get past the karman line and active stabilization
           | (basically guidance but just straight up) is a thing now so
           | decent range surface-to-surface guided missiles are pretty
           | doable technically. The fortunate thing is these people also
           | care deeply about their hobby and, besides, they just aren't
           | mass murderers.
        
       | lxgr wrote:
       | While I do believe that whatever is happening will largely be
       | explained by selective attention and confirmation bias, here is
       | at least one instance of a drone sighting on the final approach
       | path to JFK over a landing airplane:
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQiSkTVeN78
        
       | thehappypm wrote:
       | My father took this picture of a drone in Morris County, NJ.
       | Anyone want to help identify what it is?
       | https://i.imgur.com/Sfet0Ps.jpeg
        
         | YZF wrote:
         | I'm far from an expert but looks more or less like a garden
         | variety quad-copter. Maybe a somewhat larger one. You guys are
         | really seeing them all over the place? That's the start of a
         | good sci-fi movie. Let's see if we find something out. Is it
         | possible people are just a lot more sensitive to seeing drones
         | that are around anyways?
        
           | Balgair wrote:
           | I mean, drones are pretty cheap, yeah? Why not just join the
           | fun? Buy a drone, follow one of these other ones around, see
           | what happens. Worst case: Some army dude knocks on the door
           | and says to stop it, maybe you gotta pony up to a lawyer.
           | Best case: Your new alien friends have great new schnapps on
           | the intergalactic party-barge.
        
         | tauntz wrote:
         | Looks like a standard quadcopter. Might be a bigger one from
         | DJI perhaps? Matrice 350 or similar
        
         | Ancapistani wrote:
         | Based on the apparent size and arrangement of the central
         | section, that looks like a DJI Inspire 1 or 2.
        
       | throwawaycities wrote:
       | Almost no chance these are not US military.
       | 
       | The drones have been appearing very consistently, if there were
       | the slightest concern of foreign military drones, then military
       | jets would have been scrambled to intercept - there have been no
       | such reports.
        
         | binary132 wrote:
         | Military jets scrambled to intercept a bunch of random UAVs? Do
         | you know how expensive those things are to operate?
        
           | throwawaycities wrote:
           | Yes, that is the protocol when aircraft enter restricted
           | airspace like next to military bases - which has been
           | reported.
           | 
           | Besides training, intercepting aircraft is primarily what
           | jets do. In terms of cost, it's a lot less expensive to
           | scramble jets than the alternative, that's why that is the
           | protocol for a number of situations including things as
           | mundane as aircraft losing communications.
           | 
           | Here there has been significant reporting, so it would be a
           | national security risk and national embarrassment for the
           | Country if the military was unable to demonstrate air
           | superiority when our territorial sovereignty is violated by
           | drones.
           | 
           | Unless you're familiar with different FAA and NORAD protocols
           | than I am, which it doesn't seem like you are, the most
           | likely explanation is they are military craft and exercises.
        
             | kjkjadksj wrote:
             | Picture this. You fly a kite in a park near a military
             | base. Your kite blows over the fence. It is now an
             | unidentified flying object over a military base. Now do you
             | as base commander order jets to be scrambled to respond
             | what could literally be a scrap of trash or some teenager
             | with a dji drone? It is a different situation entirely
             | compared to an actual airplane.
        
               | throwawaycities wrote:
               | No need to picture a cute hypothetical set of facts that
               | are dissimilar to that actual set of facts.
               | 
               | These are serious military protocols not a academic
               | exercise in a vacuum.
               | 
               | Unauthorized flying of even dji drones near and over
               | military bases is illegal and people get arrested for it.
               | In fact a Chinese citizen was just arrested yesterday for
               | flying a drone over a Space Force base.
               | 
               | Based on reports and video evidence the drones being
               | observed are not common dji drones (certainly not a kite
               | blown over the fence), reports are these are 6-10ft and
               | don't have any radio frequency. Otherwise they are being
               | reported as specifically going to/coming from military
               | bases.
               | 
               | And though I don't think it is credible, at least one
               | Congressman is publicly stating these are Iranian
               | military drones being launched from Iranian submarines.
               | 
               | Just seems to me "scrambling jets" seems like something
               | out of a movie to people unfamiliar, but it's an daily
               | occurrence.
        
           | abenga wrote:
           | Airforces do a lot of ceremonial flyover stuff just to train
           | and keep pilots' hours up. I doubt flying to deal with
           | drones, even just for training, is a big lift.
        
         | kjkjadksj wrote:
         | I saw a video of some pentagon rep commenting on these
         | sightings over military bases. They basically said 'we say we
         | don't know because any old joe shmoe can fly a drone suddenly
         | next to a military base and have it enter restricted space and
         | in that moment no one knows what it is.' Then they went on to
         | mention how if they respond with force e.g. shooting down a
         | drone like this there is risk of where missed bullets land. And
         | if it turns out to be some kids air hogs plane that blew into a
         | base then that's a really sorry excuse for using ordinance. So
         | they are taking a position that there is no threat and no
         | response needed until there is indeed a threatening action. And
         | just flying around is not deemed as that.
        
       | VonGuard wrote:
       | I'm wondering if these sightings are occurring in Grovers Mill,
       | NJ.
        
       | LAC-Tech wrote:
       | I hope Americans are wise enough now to not believe things like
       | this are from Iran. Remember there are powerful foreign interests
       | in the US who desperately want you to fight Iran on their behalf
       | - don't listen to them, your lives are worth more than that.
        
       | binary_slinger wrote:
       | I think I'm going to keep my camera with a 600mm lens on me at
       | all times.
        
         | throwaway290 wrote:
         | 600 mm sharp zoom is expensive glass, kudos sir
        
       | andrelaszlo wrote:
       | "a post-Chinese spy-balloon world"
       | 
       | Noticed it because of the typo ("spy-ballon") but realized it's
       | also a pretty funny phrase.
       | 
       | Are we living in a spy-balloon world which is no longer Chinese?
       | 
       | Or maybe in a balloon-world, post the Chinese spy?
        
         | ripped_britches wrote:
         | Best comment in the whole discussion
        
         | guerrilla wrote:
         | I think you're the only person engaging in this with the right
         | level of seriousness.
        
       | kcaj wrote:
       | Mark my words, this will turn out to be a form of mass hysteria.
        
       | x-_-x wrote:
       | I guarantee it's some local police agency that got them donated
       | by the military.
        
         | j_timberlake wrote:
         | Pretty terrible guarantee to make since the Pentagon already
         | said it wasn't their drones.
        
           | tzs wrote:
           | If they were given to local police by the Pentagon then the
           | Pentagon would be correct to say they aren't theirs.
           | 
           | Someone needs to ask the Pentagon if they _used_ to be
           | theirs.
        
           | mrguyorama wrote:
           | It's hilarious to watch UFO conspiracy theorists say "I
           | believe what the Pentagon has said" and not explode in a puff
           | of hypocrisy.
        
             | j_timberlake wrote:
             | Yeah that's definitely something they said and not a
             | strawman you hallucinated in your head.
        
       | ksec wrote:
       | I am not normally for regulation but I think Drones needs to be
       | regulated.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | Drones already are regulated. Some drone operators don't follow
         | the regulations.
        
       | Ziggy_Zaggy wrote:
       | Perhaps we should consider the tech GTRI developed to study the
       | situation?
       | 
       | Link - https://www.twz.com/air/militarys-recently-deployed-ufo-
       | hunt...
        
       | WhereIsTheTruth wrote:
       | DoD testing Starlink (wich is their product, from their front
       | company SpaceX) with their shiny new drones
        
         | WhereIsTheTruth wrote:
         | Downvoter, you are historical illiterate:
         | 
         | https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB509/
         | 
         | Competition is the greatest tool for innovation
         | 
         | And i am omniscient
        
       | garbagewoman wrote:
       | Govt agencies claim to have no knowledge of an issue which they
       | very much can and would have a very good knowledge of? It's them.
        
         | IAmGraydon wrote:
         | Precisely.
        
       | yobid20 wrote:
       | These are defense contractor drones being tested. Not foreign,
       | and not military (well, not YET, lol).
        
       | K0balt wrote:
       | These are being extensively tested in the area. PteroDynamics
       | XP-4 https://pterodynamics.com/
       | 
       | They look like airliners, drones, and helicopters depending on
       | when you see them. They are large, noisy, and carry FAA compliant
       | lights.
       | 
       | They aren't secret, per se, but the military is more interested
       | in understanding the perception of their use than it is in
       | sharing exactly what it is they are up to, as usual.
       | 
       | This is a gigantic nothing burger.
        
         | j_timberlake wrote:
         | Wow, the FBI has already stated they can't figure these drones
         | out, but you sure figured it out fast, you need to contact the
         | FBI tipline ASAP.
        
       | j_timberlake wrote:
       | Quick summary after following this for a few days: FBI says
       | they're rotary and fixed-wing drones, White House says they
       | aren't foreign adversaries, Pentagon says they aren't USA
       | military, all 3 insist that there's no indication of a real
       | threat despite the drones being bigger and higher tech than
       | retail drones.
       | 
       | Politicians are PO'd that something about this doesn't add up:
       | How can anyone know these aren't a threat without knowing whose
       | they are? Why isn't anyone bringing them down? Where do they
       | land? Is this similar to the Chinese spy balloon?
       | 
       | I've seen a huge number of theories by now, and not one of them
       | actually fits.
        
         | keepamovin wrote:
         | Why do the theories not fit? And where's the link to the FBI
         | statement? I believe they said " _include_ rotary and fixed-
         | wing " not exclusively, but this is based on reports received.
         | They haven't actually captured one.
         | 
         |  _included sightings of both fixed-wing and rotary drones,
         | Robert Wheeler, the assistant director of the FBI's Critical
         | Incident Response Group, said during a Homeland Security
         | subcommittee hearing on security threats posed by drones._
         | 
         | source: https://www.nj.com/news/2024/12/more-than-3k-mystery-
         | drone-s...
        
           | j_timberlake wrote:
           | No point quoting articles, just watch him say it:
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTotPeiMjlc&t=6767s
           | 
           | Up to you how you want to interpret his exact words.
        
             | keepamovin wrote:
             | Yeah there's a point quoting, people here don't always
             | watch videos, but thanks for the link.
             | 
             | Article gets the quote slightly wrong, but semantically
             | it's right: _some are described as being slightly larger
             | than um um than a commercial uh available drone um fixed
             | Wing as well as rotary_
             | 
             | Technically you could say the rotary/fixed-wing is only
             | invoked to describe the class of drones compared to which
             | these reports are larger, _not_ that the reports  "include"
             | ("some are described") fixed wing and rotary.
             | 
             | I'm OK with either the weaker (less UFO) or stronger (more
             | UFO) interpretations. How about you?
        
               | xattt wrote:
               | Back in my day, we called "commercial fixed-wing drones"
               | RC model planes.
        
         | j-krieger wrote:
         | > How can anyone know these aren't a threat without knowing
         | whose they are
         | 
         | They are - obviously - lying. This screams secrecy to me. All 3
         | know that these drones are not a threat. They aren't US
         | military because they are a 3 letter agency program. They know
         | there's nothing to worry about it, but they won't tell you any
         | more details. Which has been the modus operandi for secret
         | services for decades, so I'm surprised it's such an issue?
        
           | rjrdi38dbbdb wrote:
           | I think what's so surprising is that they would run a
           | secretive program in such a conspicuous manner, not that the
           | secretive program exists.
        
             | cheschire wrote:
             | Can you think of a better way to normalize it? Think about
             | the average persons response to online privacy these days
             | for a good indicator about how people will feel about drone
             | monitoring in a few years if this is normalized.
        
             | fasa99 wrote:
             | Exactly. That's what I think it is, government secrecy as
             | their standard operating procedure. When unsure, don't say
             | anything. After all, disclosing the public includes
             | adversaries also knowing.
             | 
             | It seems to me what's happening is a "Streisand Effect"
             | where the whole attitude of "go away, nothing to see here"
             | is in fact maximizing attention and defeating the purpose
             | of hiding this away.
             | 
             | If it were me I'd put a band-aid on a drone, fly it to a
             | person, and say, "we are testing military capabilities to
             | render first aid to our soldiers" or something similar.
             | It's not a lie, it's good optics, adversaries can worry
             | about it... then put whatever it is on ice for a while
             | until the heat dies down
        
           | 1oooqooq wrote:
           | a shining example of a functioning democracy.
        
           | addandsubtract wrote:
           | If you wanted to find out whose they are, just follow them
           | and see where they land, and who picks them up?
        
             | diggan wrote:
             | > just follow them
             | 
             | How exactly do you follow a fixed-wing drone? Some of the
             | high-end/industrial drones has pretty impressive ranges.
        
               | falcor84 wrote:
               | Well, there's a lot of evidence that humans evolved to be
               | persistence hunters, so we just need to continue this
               | process and adapt further.
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | You pay a bunch of money to someone who has a Dash 8 or
               | similar common commercial aircraft. These drones probably
               | don't have 1000mi range.
               | 
               | And even if you can't follow one all the way to its
               | destination you can still take some real good pictures
               | with flash and plaster them all over the news and wait
               | for someone to say "I pump fuel and sweep floors at
               | airport X and a bunch of dickbags with black suburbans
               | and bad attitudes have a hanger full of those things".
        
               | almog wrote:
               | >These drones probably don't have 1000mi range.
               | 
               | Since you're replying to a question about tracking fixed
               | wing it's worth mentioning that their range can be well
               | over 1000 miles as some of the Iranian Shahed drones have
               | a range of almost 1600 miles.
        
               | semi-extrinsic wrote:
               | That's a 400 lbs, 11 ft by 8 ft UAV powered by a 50 hp
               | gasoline piston engine. It's half the size of a Cessna
               | 172 and makes a similar noise, observers would for sure
               | classify it as an airplane.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | A Dash 8 or other similar commercial aircraft lacks the
               | radar necessary to track an aerial target. Most airliners
               | have weather radar but it's not really useful for this
               | purpose. In much of the airspace around that region a
               | Dash 8 would also have to operate under ATC control; the
               | pilot can't just fly wherever without getting violated.
        
               | philistine wrote:
               | Get your own 1600 miles range black ops drone of your own
               | then.
        
               | j2bax wrote:
               | With a fixed wing drone of your own of course!
        
               | red_admiral wrote:
               | Yeah, unless someone really really big is behind this (or
               | it's aliens), then a US military drone should be able to
               | track and follow one of the unknown drones for a while.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Nah. None of the publicly acknowledged US military drones
               | carries the type of X-band air search radar that would be
               | necessary to reliably track a small aerial target. There
               | is some stuff in development with that capability but it
               | hasn't been fielded yet, and for safety reasons it
               | certainly wouldn't be authorized for flight in controlled
               | civilian airspace or over populated areas.
        
           | curt15 wrote:
           | Shoot one down and see who comes knocking?
        
             | euroderf wrote:
             | Fourth Amendment in action !
        
               | WaitWaitWha wrote:
               | This could be scoped very tightly to reasonableness with
               | an emergency warrant, plenty of probable cause.
               | 
               | Can you elucidate what you meant?
        
               | euroderf wrote:
               | Are you suggesting that these drones have warrants for
               | every piece of property they overfly ?
        
             | rmbyrro wrote:
             | Careful who you wish on your door...
        
               | weard_beard wrote:
               | This is America. If they want to come knock on my door
               | without identifying themselves they'll get worse
               | treatment than their drone.
        
               | tuyiown wrote:
               | I don't know much about america, but after shooting down
               | a secret drone, you really would assume that people
               | knocking at your door really is the situation you think
               | it is ?
        
               | KumaBear wrote:
               | People like this talk a big game but the warrant will be
               | written and they will comply. Always the online warriors
               | that act tough but always fold.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | All this talk about "2nd amendment is about deposing
               | tyranny" and yet they weren't the ones protesting the
               | wars in the middle east and the Patriot act, two recent
               | and objectively tyrannical acts.
               | 
               | In fact, we know that the gun nuts in the US were broadly
               | on the side of SUPPORTING those two things.
        
               | next_xibalba wrote:
               | I think you're importing heavy bias into your
               | interpretation. 2A types are interested in deposing
               | tyranny when its directed against them by their own
               | government. Not tyranny anywhere on the face of the
               | Earth. If that's true, and I do believe it is, it is not
               | at all incompatible with foreign wars, whether one
               | believes they're tyrannical or not.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | Full transparency: I think the only "Tyranny" that "2A
               | types" care about is a law banning guns. They seem to
               | love the militarization of the police, police having zero
               | accountability ("They do a hard job", so do I but I don't
               | get to shoot someone cause I was spooked and then go on
               | vacation), and literally vote for Trump, who objectively
               | has done more to remove gun rights than any democrat
               | since clinton.
               | 
               | An absurd amount of the most aggressive 2A types are
               | literally just cops, you know, the actual boot that would
               | stand on the neck in any tyranny situation. They'll
               | scream and cry about the ATF and then talk with their cop
               | buddies while smoking some MJ, in a state without
               | recreational cannabis laws.
               | 
               | In short, they are dishonest, whether they are smart
               | enough to realize it or not.
        
               | scarecrowbob wrote:
               | I agree.
               | 
               | To be clear, I have a lot of guns, but it's not because I
               | have any special love of the US BoR or even a belief that
               | they are useful against state actors. Or, even a real
               | enjoyment of shooting.
               | 
               | I have guns because my neighbors all have guns and think
               | queer/trans/atheist/lefty/etc folks are literally
               | demonic. They are explicitly waiting for any suspension
               | of regular government in which they can play their
               | fantasy of a "purge". I'd much rather be collecting
               | pretty dresses, but this is how it is where I live.
               | 
               | I would say that the parent comment is accurate in noting
               | 2A loving folks don't want government authority applied
               | to -them-, but it's -only- to them and many are living in
               | the privileged fantasy that this power will never be
               | applied to them and only to their grievances- hence the
               | boot licking they do.
               | 
               | I don't think that's dishonesty, I think it is
               | delusional. And they generally go from being "normal
               | conservatives" to out right fascists just as soon as that
               | fantasy weakens even a little.
        
               | mindslight wrote:
               | > _2A types are interested in deposing tyranny when its
               | directed against them by their own government_
               | 
               | The NRA's complete silence on the murder of Breonna
               | Taylor by government agents, as retaliation for Kenneth
               | Walker exercising his 2A natural right to self defense
               | (at home at night!). I'm unable to find a kind way of
               | explaining that away. "Freedom" culture seems to have
               | become just as post-reality detached from effective
               | values as everything else.
        
               | next_xibalba wrote:
               | Or they will end up in situation that in most cases will
               | end in their death. Which seems so obvious that they must
               | be suicidal. Law enforcement can bring far more force to
               | bear than a single person can defend against.
        
               | hnpolicestate wrote:
               | HN has so much boot in its mouth. Authority says jump and
               | you guys ask how high.
        
               | pjc50 wrote:
               | Not just that, there are plenty of documented instances
               | of people being shot dead for being _suspected_ of
               | holding a gun. Do people really think they can just shoot
               | a cop, close their front door, and go back to living
               | their life?
        
               | afthonos wrote:
               | I like the idea that the government will show up without
               | identifying themselves just so people can live out their
               | fantasy of shooting someone without getting into trouble.
               | 
               | They will absolutely identify themselves. The reason you
               | should be worried is the endless, expensive process
               | you'll be subjected to after they knock on your door.
        
               | lazyasciiart wrote:
               | Apparently they didn't identify themselves to Breonna
               | Taylor. It's probably happened more than once.
        
               | jf22 wrote:
               | What will you do?
               | 
               | Are you going to shoot people for knocking on your door?
        
             | hilbert42 wrote:
             | Ha, with all this publicity someone will likely take up the
             | challenge and possibly succeed. The hunting instinct in
             | some is just too strong.
             | 
             | One wonders how they'd keep tracking it down a secret
             | especially if the perpetrator was smart and gave them a
             | decent run for their money.
        
             | duxup wrote:
             | This seems like it would be a difficult task to accomplish.
        
             | hiatus wrote:
             | If history is any indication it will be local police
             | responding to shots fired. Many municipalities in NJ do not
             | allow the discharge of a firearm within town limits. Morris
             | Township has such a law in their code as well.
        
               | zelon88 wrote:
               | I wonder where the threshold is for claiming self defense
               | against a drone? Does the Castle Doctrine apply to non-
               | human assailants?
        
               | Loughla wrote:
               | More like - does the castle doctrine apply to defending
               | yourself against someone not actually trying to enter
               | your castle.
               | 
               | It would be like shooting someone for taking pictures of
               | your house from the street.
               | 
               | I'm relatively certain law enforcement would have
               | opinions about that.
        
               | zelon88 wrote:
               | I don't think you understand. It sounds like you think
               | I'm talking about defending youself against a human. I am
               | not.
               | 
               | If a drone is trying to gain access to your home, do you
               | have the right to defend against it using deadly force?
               | Meaning; Force that _would_ be deadly to a human
               | attacker.
        
               | Ancapistani wrote:
               | Strictly speaking, my understanding of the federal law
               | and regulation is that there is no exception to the crime
               | of shooting at an operating aircraft.
               | 
               | That said, the FAA's jurisdiction ends with the National
               | Airspace, which physically ends the moment it crosses
               | into a structure.
        
             | shagie wrote:
             | The answer would be the FAA for sabotage of an aircraft and
             | the local sheriff for unlawful discharge of a firearm
             | within town limits.
             | 
             | The FAA may have someone who knows, but the interesting
             | people wouldn't be the ones to show up when there's no need
             | for them to do so.
        
           | j_timberlake wrote:
           | These are the least-bad theories, but if an agency is
           | desperate enough to deploy the drones night after night even
           | after being noticed, then that's extremely foreboding. What
           | would drive them to do that, a dirty bomb that needs to be
           | found with drone sensors?
           | 
           | Personally I'd rather have evidence of this before dwelling
           | on all the possible tragedies here.
        
         | red_admiral wrote:
         | I guess the CIA/NSA are technically not "military"?
        
         | mnky9800n wrote:
         | Perhaps Dr. Evil has shown up, requested 1 million dollars, or
         | otherwise his drones will attack innocent civilians?
        
         | otikik wrote:
         | > How can anyone know these aren't a threat without knowing
         | whose they are?
         | 
         | Because they are theirs, obviously. They just won't say it.
        
           | ptero wrote:
           | Neither FBI nor Pentagon have ability to fly drones in the US
           | airspace at will. On the contrary, they, like everyone else,
           | have to get FAA approvals and those always leak. And usually
           | in fact published by the FAA who needs to warn pilots of
           | potential threats -- one could go to the official FAA website
           | and search those NOTAMs.
           | 
           | Ignoring FAA by the FBI or the military just doesn't happen,
           | the price to pay is WAY too high.
           | 
           | NSA or spooks could theoretically be behind this, but why do
           | it where it annoys people and attracts attention and not in
           | some desert or foreign place? Something doesn't add up.
        
             | guerrilla wrote:
             | > Neither FBI nor Pentagon have ability to fly drones in
             | the US airspace at will.
             | 
             | And neither of those agencies ever did anything they're not
             | "able" to do... regularly...
        
             | tomrod wrote:
             | Attracting attention in one direction can be misdirection.
             | I have no idea if that is the case here, simply felt like
             | it's an avenue not considered.
        
             | hmmm-i-wonder wrote:
             | While completely true, it doesn't address the fact that
             | CIA, NSA, FBI and other gov agencies have used their
             | control or secret ownership of 'private' companies to break
             | federal regulations in the past. They _could_ be using some
             | sort of cutout to confuse the ownership/control to get
             | around regulations.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | The FBI, NSA, and all other civilian agencies must follow
             | FAA regulations but legally speaking the military doesn't.
             | The military operates aircraft in domestic airspace under a
             | memorandum of understanding with the FAA which basically
             | states that they'll follow the regulations. This makes
             | things easier for everyone and prevents mishaps. But if the
             | military chooses to violate that agreement then there
             | aren't really any enforceable legal consequences.
        
             | next_xibalba wrote:
             | Isn't airspace around all military installations exempted
             | from this? How would you train your people to use your
             | drones otherwise?
             | 
             | What's more, the feds are clearly signalling that these are
             | ours. As others point out, you can't say its not an
             | adversaries asset unless you know whose it is. Which would
             | suggest either they are flying these illegally, they have
             | some kind of exemption to fly in civilian air space, or
             | they are being flown in military air space that is
             | observable from non-military locations.
        
             | briandear wrote:
             | There is a NOTAM for these.
        
             | otikik wrote:
             | I can imagine a parallel chanel where FAA is informed but
             | NOTAMS are not issued, or issued selectively.
        
             | darkarmani wrote:
             | They don't need approval for under 400 FT AGL in class G
             | airspace.
             | 
             | The idiots reporting on it have NO idea how high these
             | drones are. And the military has a bunch of carved airspace
             | in various places. I think last time i looked (4 weeks
             | ago), there was some reserved airspace off Cape Hatteras
             | for the US Marines.
        
               | heavyset_go wrote:
               | To add to your last point, looking at maps of drone
               | sightings in the area, the biggest hotspots are in
               | reserved airspace over military assets, including ones
               | that store and load nukes on ships.
               | 
               | If they were truly a threat, or some random person's
               | drones, they would have been taken care of nearly
               | instantly.
               | 
               | I have personally seen the response of someone flying
               | their drone in that airspace. They do not hesitate to
               | send out goons with guns strapped over their shoulders
               | and megaphones to make it clear that what you're doing is
               | very much not okay.
        
           | ComplexSystems wrote:
           | Why don't they just say it then? Who cares?
        
             | mrguyorama wrote:
             | Same reason the feds didn't say anything about the F-117 in
             | the 80s when hundreds of people in nevada were mistaking it
             | for a UFO: They have no interest in telling the world about
             | the exact nature of their ISR assets.
             | 
             | The US DoD has recognized a lack of capacity and capability
             | in our native drone programs when examined in context of
             | the Ukraine war. They are spending plenty of money to shore
             | of that lack, and not all of the programs and projects they
             | are funding are through Anduril and have literal fan
             | groups.
        
         | pjc50 wrote:
         | I'm reminded of https://www.theguardian.com/uk-
         | news/2020/dec/01/the-mystery-...
         | 
         | No "official" conclusion, but the common sense position seems
         | to be that most or all of the reported incidents were
         | nothingburger.
        
         | gregw2 wrote:
         | "How can anyone know these aren't a threat without knowing
         | whose they are?"
         | 
         | Easy. They didn't say they don't know whose they are. They
         | could belong to a private contractor who is paid by the
         | military but the military doesn't own the drones nor company
         | (plausible deniability /outsourcing.) Or they could be a
         | friendly country (e.g. UK) red-teaming the US with our consent.
         | 
         | I've never heard anyone apply the Five Eyes horse trading to
         | inter-country UFO-related dynamics of operation but its fairly
         | conceivable and has a bit of precedent, right?
        
           | mdgrech23 wrote:
           | yea this is the sad shitty answer - it's just a private
           | company w/ a government contract gathering data on us
        
             | next_xibalba wrote:
             | > gathering data on us
             | 
             | A substantial leap. Given that these are flying near
             | military installations, wouldn't the most plausible
             | explanation be that these are test flights? What data would
             | be gathered from low altitude that could not be aggregated
             | from the myriad other sensors in our environments? Or from
             | satellites, etc.?
             | 
             | Seems like the U.S. military has taken to heart that in any
             | near future conflicts, forces of any branch will need to be
             | heavily augmented by drones for reconnaissance, offense,
             | and defense. So, if that's true, I would expect any
             | military site at which personnel are trained to be flying
             | drones constantly. And it serves them no benefit to let
             | everyone know what they're doing. If the U.S. public is
             | "read in", so are all potential adversaries.
        
           | j_timberlake wrote:
           | "They didn't say they don't know whose they are."
           | 
           | The FBI explicitly said they didn't 2 days ago. There's a
           | possibility the FBI is being purposefully left in the dark by
           | other feds, or lying under oath at risk of prison time for
           | perjury, but without any evidence that's just one more of
           | MANY conspiracy theories here.
        
             | philistine wrote:
             | In the three-letter agency soup, it's very possible another
             | agency called them and said: _you guys don 't know who
             | these are, and you will never know. But we know._
        
         | jyounker wrote:
         | It's easy to say they're probably no threat. The number of ways
         | for something to be a threat is much smaller than the number of
         | ways of something being a not a threat, therefore the
         | probability of them being a threat is very low.
         | 
         | It's always possible to make a just-so story about them being a
         | threat, and those are the kind of stories that catch people's
         | attention. The odds are they belong to a mapping company, or a
         | drone construction company, or a university or something else
         | completely innocuous.
         | 
         | Why don't we know? Well because it's a big world, and people
         | dealing with actual problems have more important shit to deal
         | with.
        
           | hersko wrote:
           | What? There are many recreational (small) drone rules with
           | the FAA because they can harm people. A 6 foot drone falling
           | hundreds of feet on someone is obviously a threat.
        
         | JKCalhoun wrote:
         | 1) You don't need a single theory to fit all the evidence --
         | some sightings might be unrelated to others.
         | 
         | 2) You don't need a theory to fit all the evidence since,
         | undoubtedly, not all the evidence is accurate. A theory that
         | fit _most_ of the evidence is adequate.
         | 
         | 3) We all know people and even photos lie. That gives us quite
         | a bit of leeway to be dismissive of sightings and official
         | responses as well.
        
         | duxup wrote:
         | It doesn't strike me as odd that politicians would be out of
         | the loop at times, especially locals.
        
         | JKCalhoun wrote:
         | The most likely theory I have seen is regarding a craft from
         | Pivotal Aero [1]. I'm not sure what the holes in that theory
         | are.
         | 
         | (When some John Bircher shoots one down though I suppose we'll
         | have our answer, ha-ha, not-ha-ha.)
         | 
         | [1] https://pivotal.aero
        
         | rmah wrote:
         | The Chinese "spy balloon" that it turned out wasn't a spy
         | balloon (according to the pentagon)?
         | https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66062562
        
           | pc86 wrote:
           | Your assertion is not supported by your source:
           | 
           | > Pentagon spokesperson Brigadier General Pat Ryder said on
           | Thursday that the US was "aware that [the balloon] had
           | intelligence collection capabilities". ... He said the
           | efforts the US took to mitigate any intelligence gathering
           | "contributed" to the balloon's failure to gather sensitive
           | information.
           | 
           | So it was a spy balloon but it was off, or it was a spy
           | balloon and on and we outsmarted it, or it was a spy balloon
           | and it malfunctioned at least in part.
           | 
           | Nothing in that source suggests that it was not a spy
           | balloon.
        
             | left-struck wrote:
             | Maybe the article had a different headline and they didn't
             | read the actual article? I'm baffled how some could read
             | that incredibly short article and come away with any
             | assertion about what the pentagon thinks about the balloon
             | other than that it can collect "intelligence data"
        
           | left-struck wrote:
           | From the article you just linked
           | 
           | 'Pentagon spokesperson Brigadier General Pat Ryder said on
           | Thursday that the US was "aware that [the balloon] had
           | intelligence collection capabilities". But "it has been our
           | assessment now that it did not collect while it was
           | transiting the United States or over flying the United
           | States".'
           | 
           | When did the pentagon confirm it was not a spy balloon? The
           | article is very short and the meaning is clear, it doesn't
           | say anything about whether the pentagon thinks it's a spy
           | balloon.
        
         | axegon_ wrote:
         | I think the one thing no one really mentions is the fact that
         | drones are extremely easy to build in the comfort of your
         | living room. If you have a 3d printer, some spare parts laying
         | around and a cheap electronics store around the corner(check,
         | check and check in my case), you can build a drone for less
         | than 300 bucks which is far less than the retail ones -
         | completely autonomous, no radio link needed, takes off, does
         | what it does and lands on it's own with no human intervention.
        
           | creaturemachine wrote:
           | We all have that same cheap electronics store, it's called
           | AliExpress.
        
             | axegon_ wrote:
             | Delivery success rate is pretty much a random number
             | generator here. Sometimes stuff arrives on time, sometimes
             | it shows up 6 months late, sometimes never. For me it's
             | either the physical store, amazon or mouser.
        
         | stronglikedan wrote:
         | > Pentagon says they aren't USA military
         | 
         | But they apparently didn't fly on Thanksgiving, which is an
         | interesting coincidence if true.
        
           | themaninthedark wrote:
           | If you are US military, your probably won't be flying on
           | Thanksgiving...
           | 
           | If you are a spy trying to look at the activity or capture
           | changes at a site, you probably aren't going to be flying on
           | Thanksgiving since no work was done...
        
         | andrewla wrote:
         | > FBI says they're rotary and fixed-wing drones, White House
         | says they aren't foreign adversaries, Pentagon says they aren't
         | USA military
         | 
         | Do you have sources for these? Not challenging the assertions,
         | but all I see in the news articles is vague un-attributed
         | paraphrasing of statements. For example you say that the "FBI
         | says they're rotary and fixed-wing drones"; the latest I saw
         | from the FBI was what this article said; that they had lots of
         | reports of sightings but no further information.
         | 
         | The pictures I've seen all look like blurry pictures of
         | helicopters; also occasionally blurry "orbs". Does nobody have
         | access to anything better than this? Is this even a real thing?
        
           | j_timberlake wrote:
           | Skip the articles, go to the source:
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ETJ2d0o3Zk
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MPJydlIpfs
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTotPeiMjlc
           | 
           | (CSPAN links would be better, but I've already spent way too
           | much time on this.)
           | 
           | Would have put sources in if I'd realized I'd get this many
           | views. I also might have mixed up what the Pentagon says vs
           | the Press Secretary, but since they both answer to Joe, it
           | shouldn't matter much.
        
             | Aloisius wrote:
             | So the FBI didn't actually say they were drones.
             | 
             | The FBI said public reports and eyewitnesses said they're
             | drones.
        
         | noworld wrote:
         | Someone just needs to shoot one down.
        
         | pelorat wrote:
         | Because they have navigation and avoidance lights on, as
         | required by the FAA. This is dumb hysteria.
        
           | kulshan wrote:
           | AP reported yesterday they are often running without any
           | lights at all.
        
         | briandear wrote:
         | "The aren't military."
         | 
         | Yet there are dozens of other agencies that work with the
         | Pentagon that aren't military either.
         | 
         | These are likely part of an SCI program -- either a real op or
         | a training op. Very few people would know what's going on, so
         | most of the agencies commenting likely are being completely
         | honest based on their own knowledge.
         | 
         | This is government.
         | 
         | FAA NOTAM FDC 4/1797 Restricts the airspace until 20 December.
         | 
         | If they were truly "unknown" then why would the NOTAM
         | arbitrarily end on 20 Dec? If they were unknown, they'd have
         | the NOTAM be indefinite until the situation were resolved.
        
           | semi-extrinsic wrote:
           | Interesting NOTAM, thanks.
           | 
           | This is the government clearly stating they can intercept
           | unknown drones in the area.
           | 
           | > UAS OPR WHO DO NOT COMPLY WITH APPLICABLE AIRSPACE
           | RESTRICTIONS ARE WARNED THAT PURSUANT TO 10 U.S.C.SECTION
           | 130I AND 6 U.S.C.SECTION 124N, THE DEPARTMENT OF
           | DEFENSE(DOD), THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY(DHS) OR THE
           | DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE(DOJ) MAY TAKE SECURITY ACTION THAT
           | RESULTS IN THE INTERFERENCE, DISRUPTION, SEIZURE, DAMAGING,
           | OR DESTRUCTION OF UNMANNED ACFT DEEMED TO POSE A CREDIBLE
           | SAFETY OR SECURITY THREAT TO PROTECTED PERSONNEL, FAC, OR
           | ASSETS.
        
         | pc86 wrote:
         | Did the WH say "these are not foreign adversaries' drones" or
         | did they give some mealy-mouthed nonsense like "there is no
         | evidence that ..." or "we have no reason to believe that ..."?
         | Because those are two very different things.
        
           | j_timberlake wrote:
           | Pentagon: "Our initial assessment here is that these are not
           | drones or activities coming from a foreign entity or
           | adversary."
           | 
           | They can potentially claim "our initial assessment was wrong"
           | later, but IMO they could have done that anyway regardless of
           | their word choice here.
        
         | Aloisius wrote:
         | _> FBI says they 're rotary and fixed-wing drones_
         | 
         | The FBI simply repeated _what public reports and eyewitness
         | have said_ - a rather massive difference.
        
         | narrator wrote:
         | For those who want to know the most consistent UFOlogy angle
         | that wasn't invented last week: Over on 4chan there was an
         | alleged leaker and follow ups back in 2023 who says that
         | there's an underwater ET mothership off the east coast that
         | produces 3-d printed made to order small anti-gravity drones
         | that launch and do various tasks to monitor us. Anything that
         | approaches the underwater mothership is destroyed before they
         | even know they're under attack. They treat us like zoo animals,
         | have been here for at least 100 years, and mostly ignore us
         | except when we get trigger happy with nuclear weapons[1]. This
         | is largely consistent with "The Crowded Galaxy" resolution to
         | the Fermi Paradox[2].
         | 
         | From a UFOlogy angle, America trying to start WWIII with Russia
         | might have something to do with all this uptick in drone
         | activity since there was a huge amount back in the 40s and 50s
         | when we were also at the brink with the USSR.
         | 
         | [1] https://imgur.com/a/4chan-whistleblower-NXjWQaN
         | 
         | [2] https://botsfordism.substack.com/p/the-crowded-galaxy
        
           | jandrese wrote:
           | > Anything that approaches the underwater mothership is
           | destroyed before they even know they're under attack.
           | 
           | Let me guess, it is parked in the "Bermuda Triangle".
           | 
           | It's easy to make theories when you are unburdened by
           | evidence.
        
             | boesboes wrote:
             | Yup, but it only attacks military targets that are threat.
             | Otherwise it just hides deeper.
             | 
             | Looking forward to a spin off of ancient aliens on this
             | haha Evidence smevidence! Aliens!
        
             | narrator wrote:
             | There used to be no evidence at all, but now you have David
             | Grusch who was given explicit authorization to talk to
             | people in unacknowledged special access programs about UAPs
             | and he said under oath before congress that yes, there are
             | crashed ET craft with biologics in them that have been
             | recovered going back to the 1930s.
             | 
             | https://x.com/cspan/status/1684217673716989958
        
               | javajosh wrote:
               | Testimony is not evidence, and using the passive voice
               | ("given explicit authorization", by whom? why does this
               | matter?) is an explicit argument from authority. Physical
               | evidence or nothing. There are no shortage of credulous
               | people in the world happy to bask in the glow of
               | attention.
               | 
               | Consider the counter-factual. If indeed there are aliens
               | here, and have been here for decades, why not centuries?
               | Why haven't previous generations found them, and not
               | known their true origin? How curious that these artifacts
               | only started appearing in the space age, when if they had
               | appeared previously they would have been attributed to a
               | religious origin (and not only not suppressed, but shared
               | widely as evidence for God.)
               | 
               | Note: if aliens are here then FTL travel is not only
               | possible but common, and easy, and this would undermine a
               | great deal of verified physics. To get around _this_ you
               | 'd need a conspiracy across all physics research (a la
               | the SF novel "The Three Body Problem"). I'd also add that
               | if going to other planets was like sailing a ship, then
               | we could expect (lazy, sloppy) tourists to come around
               | who don't "toe the line" when it comes to staying hidden.
               | 
               | Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and
               | without it all such claims can be safely ignored (and
               | indeed, can and should negatively impact the people
               | making them).
        
               | narrator wrote:
               | Grusch was given access specifically by an act of the U.S
               | Congress to investigate UAPs. Watch the CSPAN link of the
               | congressional hearing I provided for the full details.
               | 
               | Read the link to "The Crowded Galaxy" theory for what's
               | probably going on based on that testimony. It answers all
               | your questions. There are probably millions of planets
               | with life in the galaxy. We're not remarkable except with
               | how hyper-violent and invasive our species is, which is
               | why they're keeping an eye on us. We evolved here so we
               | have the right to live here, but we don't have any rights
               | to live anywhere else in the galaxy. Transforming is
               | probably a ghastly notion to them.
        
               | krapp wrote:
               | The government also studied remote viewing, psychic
               | powers, and tried to control people's minds with LSD. The
               | government has been investigating UFOs since Project
               | Grudge back in the 1940s. None of that is evidence that
               | remote viewing, psychic powers, mind control or UFOs are
               | actually real.
               | 
               | David Grusch repeating second and thirdhand claims about
               | alien conspiracies is not evidence that those claims are
               | real, nor is investigating UAPs evidence of the existence
               | of alien spacecraft. None of this is actually evidence if
               | anything, it's literally the same _non-evidence_ the UFO
               | community has always believed in as a matter of faith,
               | and insisted that everyone else take as proven, self-
               | evident fact.
        
             | akira2501 wrote:
             | It's impossible to discover novel phenomenon if you are
             | unwilling to start without evidence. Meanwhile, you
             | yourself _just_ made a meta-theory, without any burden
             | whatsoever.
        
         | darkarmani wrote:
         | > despite the drones being bigger and higher tech than retail
         | drones.
         | 
         | How does anyone know how big these are? I've heard reports like
         | this:
         | 
         | 1. They looks larger than normal drones. 2. The look like they
         | are operating at a height greater than 400 ft AGL.
         | 
         | How do they know the height? If they don't know the height,
         | they certainly don't know the size. If it looks large, it isn't
         | very high.
         | 
         | If it is large and high, I would think they would get some
         | radar contacts.
         | 
         | If these are heavier than 55 pounds, I think we'd see the FAA
         | jumping all over it. I also don't see why any LE would announce
         | that they are actively figuring it out as they'd want to keep
         | the element of surprise and track the drone back to the
         | operators.
         | 
         | > Why isn't anyone bringing them down?
         | 
         | Only federal authorities can do anything to aircraft. This is
         | in the realm of the FAA.
         | 
         | > How can anyone know these aren't a threat without knowing
         | whose they are?
         | 
         | What kind of threat are we worried about here that wasn't
         | around yesterday (last year)?
         | 
         | > White House says they aren't foreign adversaries I don't
         | think the military is going to reveal its methods and
         | capabilities.
        
       | red_admiral wrote:
       | Literally an UFO mystery, but with every chance of being real
       | this time.
        
       | janalsncm wrote:
       | One question I have but which may be impossible to answer is
       | whether there is some level of confirmation bias here. Frankly
       | every drone sighting is mysterious to me. I don't know whose it
       | is.
       | 
       | So yes, they are drones but maybe this is only one standard
       | deviation from normal? Many non-military people own drones.
        
       | red_admiral wrote:
       | If he weren't Russian, we could hire "spear guy" to take some
       | drones down. This one: https://imgur.com/gallery/runestone-
       | showing-drone-incident-1... (context:
       | https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comments/y4ih8z/viking_throw...)
        
       | lerp-io wrote:
       | maybe its just plasma
       | https://www.scirp.org/pdf/jmp_2024022816363998.pdf
        
       | dudeinjapan wrote:
       | The drones keep transmitting the code 01000111 01010100 01001100.
       | What can it mean??
        
       | j0057 wrote:
       | Why would anyone put lights on a drone if it was meant to be kept
       | secret?
        
         | ct0 wrote:
         | Common, "false flag" or deception tactic in military
         | simulation. Leaving the lights on would be a good
         | deception/psyop tactic. If these are adversaries, they are sure
         | learning the rate of response by military forces.
        
       | squarefoot wrote:
       | The ones shown in video all emit light. I'm sure if I had
       | something nefarious in mind that wasn't spreading fear among
       | passers by, I'd turn the damn drone lights off. They behave like
       | their owners want them to be seen.
       | 
       | It's quite possible their only task is to fly around and make
       | sure people see them, as a form of less violent terrorism that
       | rather counts on news channels and social media to spread fear.
        
       | hnpolicestate wrote:
       | So this is out there but the late John Keel who investigated
       | UFO's and the paranormal during the 20th century believed that
       | these phenomena aren't even physically there.
       | 
       | It's some kind of trick that an unknown entity plays on people.
       | Like Bigfoot, lochness monster etc. It's possible the drones
       | don't physically exist. Yet we can see and hear them.
       | 
       | The government might know this. Hence lack of response
        
       | tzs wrote:
       | Some people report erratic motion of the objects which you
       | wouldn't expect from a normal plane or helicopter.
       | 
       | If the lights on the things are blinking, I have a possible
       | explanation for the erratic motion.
       | 
       | I've found that if I'm in a dark place with a green LED that is
       | blinking and there is not enough light to see anything but the
       | LED then the LED appears to jump around erratically.
       | 
       | I'll see it come on and go off and I'm _sure_ that I am
       | continuing to stare at the now off LED but when it comes on it is
       | somewhere else. If I 'm about 40 cm from the LED it can appear to
       | have jumped up to maybe 15-20 cm.
       | 
       | It can be quite disconcerting if there is a series of apparent
       | jumps in the same direction, because each time I have to move my
       | eyes/head in the same direction to recenter the LED, and after 4
       | or 5 jumps it feels like I should be turned significantly but I
       | can tell that I'm actually still looking mostly straight ahead.
       | 
       | If I arrange for their to be some faint light in the closet so
       | that I can see even hints of the other things in there when the
       | LED is off then I can actually keep staring at the LED's
       | position.
       | 
       | I believe this phenomenon is due to saccades [1]. Our eyes
       | normally jump around randomly when we are looking at things. We
       | can override that and force ourselves to stare at a point. My
       | guess is that we need some reference in the field of view to
       | focus our attention on to be able to do an override.
       | 
       | I'd guess that this same effect could happen with a blinking
       | object in a dark sky.
       | 
       | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saccade
        
       | rozab wrote:
       | People would do well to keep in mind the episode of drone
       | hysteria which happened at Gatwick airport in 2018. Hundreds of
       | sightings were reported over a period of several days, shutting
       | down the airport completely.
       | 
       | It was a massive media event, camera crews from every outlet were
       | at the airport, but none ever photographed a drone. None of the
       | radar systems at the airport, nor the military anti-drone systems
       | sent later on, ever picked up anything.
       | 
       | In this article, a professional drone photographer describes
       | mistaking a helicopter for a drone:
       | 
       | > But when he opened up the image on his computer, ready to send
       | to his editors, he realised he'd made a mistake. The image did
       | not show a drone. It was a helicopter hovering 10 miles away;
       | between the darkness and the distance, his eyes had played a
       | trick on him. "If I'm making a mistake - and I fly drones two or
       | three times a week - then God help us, because others will have
       | no idea," he said. He called police to retract his reported
       | sighting.
       | 
       | https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/01/the-mystery-...
        
         | left-struck wrote:
         | >Professional Drone photographer
         | 
         | Please tell me that's someone who takes photos using drones not
         | photos of drones - for a living
        
           | Out_of_Characte wrote:
           | Some people have the most bizarre hobbies. From photographing
           | bigfoot to ufo's or planespotters. I dont intend to
           | understand all of them but photographing drones might be one
           | of the more moral ones in this century. Just imagine drones
           | filming your living room, or military installations like
           | feared in the article. Having someone record such incidents
           | is appreciated.
        
             | left-struck wrote:
             | Oh yeah I totally get having a niche hobby. I've personally
             | considered starting a collection of photos of modified 90s
             | Japanese cars. I take photos all the time of my cat with a
             | "pro" camera but that doesn't make me a professional cat
             | photographer. Now if I were making money from it on the
             | other hand...
             | 
             | I would be amazed if there's enough of a demand for drone
             | photos to support someone
        
           | andrewflnr wrote:
           | Probably. At least, I know that job definitely exists.
        
         | ninininino wrote:
         | Have you been following this news story at all? There are
         | probably hundreds of video clips on social media depicting the
         | same craft. So I'm not sure what the relevancy is of your
         | story.
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OT9rrkYGAUU&list=RDNSOT9rrkY...
         | 
         | 3 minutes and 7 seconds in this video is a good example of what
         | these typically appear as.
         | 
         | But yes it's most likely a US military drone exercise or active
         | operation (have seen conjecture about a search for something,
         | testing drone capabilities in a noisy RF environment.
        
           | jerf wrote:
           | The military theory doesn't fit to me on the grounds that at
           | this point they should be just admitting it. They're calling
           | more attention to the drones than they would if they would
           | just say "yup, those are ours". You don't hide things by
           | parading them around in front of people. They've got all
           | sorts of places to secretly fly things and all the permits
           | they need to create whatever RF environment they want in the
           | process.
           | 
           | The military has had all sorts of secret aircraft over the
           | years and they never test them by loitering around civilian
           | areas for weeks at a time making damned sure thousands of
           | people can get photographs and turn it into a national story.
           | There's plenty of things like photos of the stealth aircraft
           | that people accidentally caught and didn't realize what they
           | were until years later when the relevant aircraft become
           | public knowledge, but those were generally obtained despite
           | the precautions taken, not because they were cruising around
           | in major cities in broad daylight.
           | 
           | The fact that this is still one of the _best_ theories I 've
           | got despite everything I just said is a sign of how weird
           | this situation is.
        
             | unsupp0rted wrote:
             | The next question after "yup those are ours" is "then why
             | are they there", and they might not wish to answer that
             | one.
        
               | kjkjadksj wrote:
               | "Training exercise" case closed if they wanted to end it
               | right there.
        
               | unsupp0rted wrote:
               | That wouldn't close the case for most people. Not that
               | leaving it a mystery like they're doing right now is any
               | better.
        
             | nonameiguess wrote:
             | With all due respect, this is yet another instance of
             | Hacker News confidently stating very wrong things. My wife
             | ran the operational testing program for a classified Naval
             | aircraft capability for nearly a decade. They flew unmarked
             | planes out of a commercial airport. People photographed
             | them and asked questions all the time. Nobody ever answered
             | them. Neither confirm nor deny is standard practice. If you
             | have something like the U2 flying at 50,000 feet, by all
             | means, hide it. Fly out of Area 51 or whatever. But if
             | you're just modifying standard aircraft and it flies low
             | enough that people are going to see it anyway, the best you
             | can do is keep it out of anyone's hands to physically
             | examine, but you can't keep people from seeing it.
             | 
             | She used to show me speculation just like this on hobbyist
             | observer web forums. People speculating the planes belonged
             | to the CIA, were running cocaine shipments, all kinds of
             | crazy shit. Nobody for whatever reason ever guessed the
             | obvious and only true statement. It was just basic military
             | aircraft testing out new surveillance tech that wasn't
             | ready to field yet. Not "surveillance state monitor the
             | public" shit that Hacker News thinks we're doing, either.
             | Just cranky weird shit like hiring a bunch of people in
             | west Texas to ride around on camels and horses and seeing
             | if you can tell the difference, because it's a lot easier
             | to do that first over territory you control before you try
             | to do it in Iraq.
        
               | jerf wrote:
               | "civilian areas for weeks at a time making damned sure
               | thousands of people can get photographs and turn it into
               | _a national story_ " was not an extraneous part of my
               | quote. This is not just "not answering questions", this
               | is rubbing it everyone's face, this is running around in
               | the airport shrieking about their secret airplanes and
               | making sure everyone notices them and then telling
               | everyone "oh, but no, those aren't ours what on Earth
               | could they possibly be??!?". This is not how they do
               | things, which your post reinforces, not contradicts. Tell
               | me when anything your wife did ended up on the national
               | news for days at a time like this.
        
               | freejazz wrote:
               | > was not an extraneous part of my quote
               | 
               | It's just more of the same.
        
               | nostrademons wrote:
               | I don't do anything military or classified or anything,
               | just work for a big tech company. And my employer's
               | standard policy for anything that leaks through public
               | testing is "say nothing, and if they're really
               | persistent, issue a one-sentence statement that says
               | nothing". Confidential stuff I do ends up in the national
               | news all the time, but it turns out that if you're really
               | boring and don't engage in a conversation, people forget
               | about you next week.
        
             | heavyset_go wrote:
             | > _The military theory doesn 't fit to me on the grounds
             | that at this point they should be just admitting it._
             | 
             | They aren't going to confirm or deny any classified
             | programs that they probably spent billions of dollars on
             | just because the public is spooked.
             | 
             | See also: Mirage Men (2013). The government spent countless
             | hours and millions of dollars to convince _one_ man who saw
             | classified aircraft that what he saw was actually aliens.
             | They even set up a fake alien crash site for him to
             | investigate in order to throw him off.
        
           | 404mm wrote:
           | After seeing that news clip, my only question is "why do they
           | care?". I'm not saying nobody should care but why do we have
           | citizens on the hunt for drones. From the look of it, the
           | drones don't seem to be invading citizens privacy, nor does
           | it put them in danger. It's pretty clear they don't even know
           | where exactly the drones operate, which is understandable
           | given the conditions. And why does the mayor care? Cities can
           | impose certain restrictions on drone operations but they
           | cannot just ban drones. They don't own the airspace.
           | 
           | This is up to FAA/FBI/DHS to investigate, if they have
           | reasonable belief laws are being violated or safety is being
           | threatened. Local law enforcement or state agencies can
           | investigate as well but from a different angle (privacy
           | violations, local ordinances, noise complaints,
           | trespassing...).
        
             | anarchy79 wrote:
             | This is too funny, someone's having a laff!
        
           | anarchy79 wrote:
           | Aaahahah! The guys who are doing this are absolutely shitting
           | themselves laughing right now, sending the whole nation into
           | UFO panic and getting it on national news and talked about at
           | the highest levels of government for a couple hundred bucks.
           | No drones necessary!
           | 
           | It's fucking genius, and just like magic tricks, it's so
           | simple that everyone overlooks it and jumps straight to "MUST
           | be actual magic/Aliens/secret government program/evil
           | communists!", and for the same reason- people want to get
           | tricked, mesmerized, shocked, see something magical and
           | special, to the point that they become absolutely blind to
           | the most mundane explanations, and that's precisely why it
           | works so well!
           | 
           | Not going to ruin it for them either, if you figure it out
           | you figure it out and then you know, it's pointless telling
           | people anyway because they will just come up with random
           | nonsense to dismiss it because 1) they want to believe so
           | hard, 2) they won't admit they were so easily tricked.
           | 
           | Sorry for being an ass, I'm just finding this situation
           | absolutely hilarious!
        
           | Aloisius wrote:
           | I don't understand. That is clearly just a plane at 3 minutes
           | 7 seconds.
        
           | eagerpace wrote:
           | Every clip in that video looks like an aircraft to me.
        
           | venatiodecorus wrote:
           | the military isn't responsible for domestic
           | security/surveillance.
        
         | jerf wrote:
         | The real story here is the apparent... and I use this term
         | very, very deliberately... fecklessness of all the relevant
         | authorities. Apparently... again, a deliberate choice... nobody
         | has the authority to figure out what is going on, or nobody has
         | the motivation, or nobody has the technical capability, or
         | _something_ like that. I 'm not sure what the problem is,
         | exactly, and that is in some sense now the dominant problem.
         | How can there be no clue by now?
         | 
         | Your sort of post is relevant in the first few days of the
         | story. But if this was the case, with all this attention on it,
         | it should already have been determined. But authorities aren't
         | even floating this as a theory. Basically all they're doing is
         | shooting down (pun somewhat intended) every theory.
         | 
         | That there is this much confusion, days later, is itself now
         | the most important aspect of the story.
         | 
         | And we're getting up to where there are international
         | consequences to this sort of issue, too. If we can't figure out
         | what these drones are in a week, how can we be trusted to
         | defend Taiwan or other allies in a world where "drone swarm" is
         | slowly but quite steadily moving its way up to the #1 most
         | likely attack vector? At some point it stops mattering if maybe
         | it is just helicopters miles away being misidentified, at some
         | point that becomes even worse in some ways than other answers,
         | as it gets hard to claim we're going to be totally awesome at
         | defending you against drone swarms if we can't even figure out
         | in less than two weeks whether or not there are drones in our
         | own airspace.
         | 
         | I don't know what's going on and am not pushing any particular
         | theory. I've got a lot of things in my probability matrix but
         | none of them particularly make any sense at all, which means
         | I'm missing something critical. (Which is hardly a surprise.)
        
           | pjc50 wrote:
           | > nobody has the authority to figure out what is going on, or
           | nobody has the motivation, or nobody has the technical
           | capability
           | 
           | Well .. SNAFU? This is basically what I'd expect. In these
           | kind of cases there's a steady stream of crank reports from
           | the public which are 100% false positives. The authorities
           | will have a process for routing all the UFO reports to
           | someone who sends out form letters and otherwise ignores
           | them. The _actual_ airspace protection is done by radar and
           | whatever the US calls  "QRA".
           | 
           | There's no suggestion or evidence of any damage, so this
           | ranks as a much lower threat than all sorts of other things
           | like celebrity CEO assassins.
           | 
           | In order of decreasing likeliness:
           | 
           | - nothing there
           | 
           | - just regular commercial aircraft
           | 
           | - weird aircraft, but classified, hence the blank response
           | from authorities
           | 
           | - eccentric hobbyist or intentional faker
           | 
           | - aliens
           | 
           | - foreign drones
        
             | lupusreal wrote:
             | Foreign drones must be above aliens (but no higher I
             | think.) Foreign drones are known to exist, while aliens are
             | just speculative science fiction.
        
               | voxic11 wrote:
               | I assume it was just a joke since the one thing the
               | authorities have been willing to say is that they are
               | definitely not foreign drones.
        
             | jerf wrote:
             | SNAFU is high on my list too, though generally I'd expect
             | _someone_ to have jumped in front of this by now. (That may
             | be happening; see the responses from Congress today, which
             | are the sort of thing that would look like.) Again, part of
             | my analysis is the length of time this has been occurring;
             | theories I had in the first couple of days generally
             | involved the problem being only a couple of days old. The
             | longer the mystery persists, the more we have to reconsider
             | such theories.
        
           | michaelt wrote:
           | _> fecklessness of all the relevant authorities. [...] nobody
           | has the authority to figure out what is going on, or nobody
           | has the motivation_
           | 
           | Some would see that as an admirable example of a small
           | government not overstepping its bounds.
           | 
           | The local sheriff doesn't have the authority to shoot down
           | aircraft? And doesn't exceed their authority by shooting them
           | anyway? Good job local sheriff.
           | 
           | The FAA has a handful of drone regulation folks? Nowhere near
           | enough for a 24/7 national quick response drone tracking
           | force? Very restrained and cost-conscious, good job FAA.
           | 
           | Congress hasn't authorised the military to spend taxpayer
           | money on a national anti-drone-swarm defence system, and
           | nobody's spent taxpayer money without authorisation?
           | Sensible, we don't need bureaucrats funding their pet
           | projects on the taxpayer's dime.
        
             | teksimian wrote:
             | > Some would see that as an admirable example of a small
             | government not overstepping its bounds.
             | 
             | some would see it as a government in paralysis through
             | bloat and bureaucracy with accountability not being clearly
             | assigned to anyone. This is more likely the case now.
        
               | MadnessASAP wrote:
               | Ah yes, but who is responsible for delegating authority
               | and assigning accountability? Certainly can't trust the
               | government to such tasks. They might try and use
               | bureaucracy.
        
           | reverendsteveii wrote:
           | Question: how do you think the US government post-9/11 would
           | respond if they actually didn't know who belonged to these
           | drones and they were less than an hour from Washington DC
           | (given a flight speed of 200mph https://en.defence-
           | ua.com/weapon_and_tech/325_kmh_while_ukra...)? Would they
           | pussyfoot around for a week, then blow smoke up our asses
           | about it or would they immediately eliminate the threat and
           | _then_ blow smoke up our asses about it? I think that someone
           | somewhere knows what 's happening and won't tell us but has
           | enough authority to stand down an armed response, which to me
           | sounds like DHS or DoD.
        
             | venatiodecorus wrote:
             | yeah they shot down a friggin weather balloon with a JET,
             | but nothing to worry about with these? they definitely know
             | what they are and they're fine with it. field testing new
             | drone based surveillance systems?
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | The type of drones that are small and cheap enough to make a
           | "swarm" lack the range to cross the Taiwan Strait. They would
           | have to be launched from a ship or larger aircraft, which are
           | vulnerable to existing defenses. Lessons from land conflicts
           | in Eastern Europe have very limited relevance to naval
           | conflicts in the Indo-Pacific.
        
         | tigerBL00D wrote:
         | I would not write this.off as hysteria. It's important to
         | consider motivation of potential actors. Every advanced rocket
         | guidance system uses cameras to zero in on its targets during
         | the final approach. You can't rely on GPS at that point. To do
         | a good job you need to know what your target looks like and
         | high resolution drone imagery helps a lot.
        
           | exitb wrote:
           | Why put lights on the drones? Why not map during the day?
        
             | pc86 wrote:
             | Could be multi-phase testing? Easily-acquired lighted
             | drones in one phase, dark drones in a future phase?
        
             | theodric wrote:
             | My theory was that _assuming these are_ some kind of
             | adversary drone, they seem to have read and understood the
             | law and are making some effort to remain within its bounds
             | so that 4th Amendment and other relevant protections apply
             | to them. That means operating at the legally-allowed
             | altitude, running navigation lights, etc...but then somehow
             | deciding not to run the required ADS-B ID that would, in
             | theory, give away who they are and allow their comings and
             | goings to be tracked.
             | 
             | Causing a collision with another plane that might then fall
             | onto a residential neighborhood is a great way to get the
             | entire weight of the government to come down on you, have
             | the remains of your craft picked apart, and have your
             | entire cover blown. Don't mess with the NTSB!
             | 
             | I realize this theory has holes, but it's what I've got,
             | and I feel like it's making more effort at explanation than
             | e.g. the retired Air Force Major-General who was quoted as
             | saying "they're flying with lights on, they're flying where
             | people will see them; that tells me... there's nothing
             | nefarious about it, or we're dealing with the world's
             | dumbest terrorist."[1]
             | 
             | It seems that they don't want to be seen, and "go dark"
             | when confronted.[2] Incidentally, that's what "The Angry
             | Astronaut" said in his video posted on 1 Dec about the
             | craft he attempted to chase down in the United Kingdom.[3]
             | 
             | [1] https://youtu.be/qpFz-SPCSJc?t=50
             | 
             | [2] https://www.newsweek.com/mystery-new-jersey-drones-go-
             | dark-w...
             | 
             | [3] https://youtu.be/1yglSSzP8Qk?t=331
        
           | tlrobinson wrote:
           | Or not even imagery collection, but testing to see what our
           | response is like. If we're scrambling and unable to
           | explain/contain it, that's useful for an adversary to know a
           | little about our current defensive capabilities.
        
             | stormfather wrote:
             | Or testing our own response. If we want to test what
             | China's response might be, both public and military, but
             | its too provocative to try, we might try it on ourselves.
        
           | lxgr wrote:
           | That's not true. Many missiles exclusively use GNSS and/or
           | INS, for example ATACMS and MLRS.
        
       | chasd00 wrote:
       | someone from the drone racing scene should do an intercept with a
       | high speed drone and get footage up close. It would make for a
       | good YouTube video.
        
         | Ancapistani wrote:
         | Our whole hobby is kinda right on the edge of "legal". The last
         | thing most of us want is a viral video with our name attached.
        
       | dgfitz wrote:
       | Late to the thread so this will probably get buried.
       | 
       | My spouse and I have seen these things flying for __years__
       | around the northern Baltimore area. They even had patterns.
       | 
       | Recently, we have been hearing what sound like Apache helicopters
       | at around the same time at night.
       | 
       | This video in this article: https://apnews.com/article/fbi-
       | drones-new-jersey-a978470fa3b...
       | 
       | Is 100% __identical__ to what we have been seeing for literal
       | years, at least 5.
        
         | Mistletoe wrote:
         | I guess I would say why are people concerned about this? I'd be
         | much more concerned about ones without navigation lights.
        
           | dialup_sounds wrote:
           | It's a social contagion of panic.
           | 
           | Blurry video clips trend on social media > local news talks
           | about it > people report to state and local government >
           | national news talks about it > people report to national
           | agencies > national agencies shrug > people say it must be
           | aliens, Iranians, or the CIA.
           | 
           | A few thousand people _might_ have seen a drone, but a few
           | million people saw a politician going on national television
           | claiming there 's an Iranian mothership off the coast.
        
           | IAmGraydon wrote:
           | That's what I'm saying. Drones are so common that you can buy
           | them at Walmart, and I would be willing to bet that people
           | reporting large drones are just not able to properly judge
           | scale in the sky. What's next, people panicking because they
           | are seeing cars driving around the streets?
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | AH-64 Apache helicopters sound similar to most every other
         | turbine engine helicopter. I doubt that you could distinguish
         | between them, especially not at any distance.
        
           | dgfitz wrote:
           | > I doubt that you could distinguish between them
           | 
           | Do you think that is is possible that someone can? Just not
           | me? Or literally impossible? I would also encourage you not
           | to make assumptions about the background of a random person
           | on the internet.
           | 
           | > especially not at any distance
           | 
           | They fly over our home.
        
             | chasd00 wrote:
             | My dad can identify fighter aircraft by engine sound alone,
             | he is/was just really really into military aircraft. He
             | gave me a CD once of mp3s of just the sound of jets flying
             | by. To me, it was just a headache generator hah.
             | 
             | I don't doubt for one second you can identify an Apache by
             | sound.
        
         | IAmGraydon wrote:
         | As I mentioned in another comment, police departments have been
         | using drones for around 10 years. That's not to mention all the
         | other professional and amateur use. I personally know at least
         | a handful of people who regularly fly theirs. Most major metro
         | areas are going to have drones flying all over the place. So
         | what I'm saying is...why is this interesting?
        
       | jimcollinswort1 wrote:
       | Why are we just looking up at the sky and wondering what they
       | are? Send up a few AI assisted hunter drones to go find them and
       | see. Then track, photograph, disable as needed.
        
         | chasd00 wrote:
         | i said the same up-thread, just get some drone racers to
         | intercept and film them. At the very least you'll get closer
         | footage than cell phones on the ground.
        
       | anarchy79 wrote:
       | I am very certain I know what this is, and sorry, it's not
       | aliens. I've seen this before and people were freaking TF out
       | back then, too. That one is still labeled unexplained. It's not
       | hard to figure it out.
       | 
       | I'm actually loathe to spoil it in case they're doing this as a
       | prank (and they definitely are) because it's such a genius
       | fucking way to throw a whole nation into full UFO panic for a few
       | hundred bucks, and very easy to do completely undetected. (No,
       | not drones)
       | 
       | I bet I'm not the only one who figured it out, especially on
       | here.
        
         | fonix wrote:
         | k
        
         | IAmGraydon wrote:
         | I'm guessing you mean the reports are fake, or at least the
         | ones seeding the panic, generated by bots, social media ads, or
         | something. Once you hit a critical mass, hysteria kicks in, and
         | the chain reaction becomes self-sustaining. A psy-ops weapons
         | test, basically. I think this is very possible, and yes it
         | could be a prank in this case, but it should not go unpunished
         | if so.
        
       | jotjotzzz wrote:
       | Based on all the sightings and someone flying a drone next to
       | these things, the size of these "drones" is much bigger, like the
       | size of a car! Additionally, drones can hover for less than an
       | hour. These "drones" stay floated for many hours on end!
       | 
       | These should be called UFOs, not drones. The light on them and
       | their shape make them look like regular drones, but I think these
       | crafts are much more than the regular drones that the media has
       | called them.
        
       | micromacrofoot wrote:
       | why would anything nefarious be running avoidance lights? this is
       | some sort of mass hysteria with very little critical thinking
       | involved
        
         | IAmGraydon wrote:
         | Yes it's mass hysteria, but most cases of mass hysteria are
         | seeded by a real event. So I'm guessing some agency or police
         | force ran some drones, they were spotted, it hit social media,
         | and became a mind virus.
        
       | tummler wrote:
       | There are people in the government who know exactly what these
       | are, and why they are not threatening. I assume the vague non-
       | response is because if they reveal this information, the very
       | next question is "how do you know this"? And the answer to that
       | question involves revelations that could very possibly lead to
       | upheaval and civil unrest.
       | 
       | In short, they're at a total loss on how to respond to this
       | phenomenon, because the answer opens a big ol' can of worms, or
       | Pandora's Box, or pick your metaphor.
       | 
       | FWIW, the "drones" (they're not drones though some present as
       | such) are the opposite of a threat. They're here to help, if
       | they'd be allowed to. Can't wait to hear the justification for
       | why they haven't been allowed to. _grabs popcorn_
        
         | IAmGraydon wrote:
         | What really amazes me is that society feels that we're in such
         | a perilous state that they've deluded themselves into believing
         | we're all going to be saved by little green men. If you think
         | about it, it's the same reason humans invented god, but for the
         | antitheistic.
        
       | btbuildem wrote:
       | Honestly, this looks like a some kind of a training exercise,
       | probably a contractor working with the DOD or another acronym
       | agency. From the videos, they're definitely quadcopter drones,
       | definitely larger than most hobby drones (and def above the size
       | you need to file a flight plan with the FAA). What's puzzling to
       | me is that they run with all lights on, at night -- as if being
       | seen was a goal.
       | 
       | I imagine part of a training exercise could be to learn how local
       | authorities respond to such aircraft activity. If you see what
       | the Ukrainians have been able to accomplish using this type of
       | tech (with a lot of cottage-industry DIY-type contributions) in
       | an active theatre of war, it should give you pause.
        
       | andai wrote:
       | >senator called for a ban on all drones until the mystery is
       | solved
       | 
       | Wouldn't this only maybe prevent the mystery from being solved?
       | By preventing further sightings?
        
       | hunglee2 wrote:
       | We routinely underestimate the factionalism that exists in the
       | collective US 'deep state'.
       | 
       | The CIA vs Pentagon vs FBI vs whatever else natsec department
       | that was once set up for a singular purpose before expanding
       | scope into everything else.
       | 
       | There isn't a central controller seeing everything - just a
       | President (whoever that is) sitting on top of a herd of out-of-
       | control broncos desperately trying not to fall off. These drones
       | are almost certainly US origin, but the departments don't talk to
       | each other, so when one says they don't know anything about it,
       | I'm inclined to believe that it is actually the case
        
       | atentaten wrote:
       | Have any laws been broken by flying these drones?
        
       | seaourfreed wrote:
       | I wonder if this is happening: "Hey US military drone
       | manufacturers! You are allowed to test your drones at night.
       | Don't say anything publicly. Start RIGHT after the Nov 2025
       | election. STOP right when Trump gets in office. Extra points if
       | you put big lights on them."
       | 
       | Let's keep the citizens starting at the night sky and scratching
       | their head.
       | 
       | It happened right after election. If they few in the day time, it
       | would be easy to find out they are military test drones. The
       | citizens wouldn't be as distracted.
        
         | IAmGraydon wrote:
         | I don't even know what you're suggesting. That the drones are
         | to distract us from the fact that Trump got elected?
        
       | ck2 wrote:
       | https://google.com/search?udm=2&q=xp-4+drone
        
       | throw7 wrote:
       | What pisses me off is when the pentagon says "we don't know, but
       | don't worry everything having to do with the security of the U.S.
       | is perfectly fine!" Don't lie to me.
        
       | lukeplato wrote:
       | reading this thread was a good reminder that being intelligent
       | but closed off to alternative hypotheses is the same thing as
       | being ignorant
        
       | whalesalad wrote:
       | 100% this is a defense contractor testing new gear.
        
       | graybeardhacker wrote:
       | Here's a theory, they are owned by United Health or hired by the
       | healthcare industry to flood the news cycle and distract
       | everyone.
        
       | _DeadFred_ wrote:
       | Someone make a FOIA request to the FAA for AANC and 'FAA Drone
       | Zone' authorizations for flights in areas experiencing drone
       | sightings. Be very specific with like 'AANC and 'FAA Drone Zone'
       | authorizations for the ABC affected area and in force during XYZ
       | specific timeframe (and break out each night, preferably in
       | separate FOIA requests). My guess is that would shed some light
       | on things. 'ABC' above would need to be the specific official FAA
       | name for the AANC or FAA Drone Zone.
        
       | htk wrote:
       | Suppose I have a strong blue laser and point it at said
       | unrecognized drones. Would I be in trouble? How long should we
       | wait an answer from the government before we can "fight back"?
        
         | Aloisius wrote:
         | You want to shine a laser with the intent to "fight back" at
         | things flying in the sky at night that you don't recognize?
         | 
         | Well. That would be a federal crime with up to a $250,000 fine
         | and/or a federal prison sentence of up to five years.
        
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