[HN Gopher] Boltzmann brain
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       Boltzmann brain
        
       Author : josephwegner
       Score  : 39 points
       Date   : 2024-12-10 05:22 UTC (17 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (en.wikipedia.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (en.wikipedia.org)
        
       | rzzzwilson wrote:
       | Clicked on the link hoping it was a wickedly funny parody but,
       | alas, it's just title gore: *brain*.
        
         | dang wrote:
         | We fixed the title (it was originally "Boltzmann Brian")
        
           | Vecr wrote:
           | I think someone associated with Stephen Hawking once made
           | that joke.
        
       | joegibbs wrote:
       | The problem with the Boltzmann brain, and the reason you're
       | almost certainly not one, is that if you are one then your senses
       | have no relation to reality - including the part of reality where
       | you read about the Boltzmann brain concept, or any measurements
       | you can make about the underlying reality that makes you think
       | you could be one.
       | 
       | This is the same with all solipsistic arguments, like simulation
       | hypothesis. If the universe _is_ , in fact, an illusion, then how
       | do you truly _know_ anything about the real world? Sure it could
       | be a computer simulation, but there's no way to know for sure.
       | The parent universe could actually follow different laws
       | entirely. It could be creating a "simulation" through entirely
       | different methods. Hell, for all you know it could be an evil
       | demon using magic to trick us, because magic could be real in the
       | parent universe. It's all unfalsifiable.
        
         | CamperBob2 wrote:
         | Also, any line of inquiry that applies probabilistic arguments
         | to evolution-based questions is already off in the weeds. The
         | brains in our bodies didn't arise as a result of pure random
         | organization, but developed incrementally in a direction that
         | maximized reproductive fitness. There is no reason to think
         | that brains appearing in isolated space at random, complete
         | with memories, would ever be a thing.
         | 
         | So it's simply not meaningful to ask about the relative odds of
         | these two positions.
        
           | empath75 wrote:
           | > There is no reason to think that brains appearing in
           | isolated space at random, complete with memories, would ever
           | be a thing.
           | 
           | There are only a limited amount of physical states possible
           | in a given volume and given an infinite amount of time and
           | space, all of them will happen an infinite amount of times.
        
             | wutwutwat wrote:
             | I disagree. I once had someone say that if you were to
             | smash an iphone into tiny tiny pieces and put it into a
             | plastic bag and shake it, given enough time, it would
             | reassemble itself into a working iphone, the pieces
             | randomly ending up where they need to be in order to
             | operate like it did originally.
             | 
             | While it is technically possible for that to happen, the
             | probability of the intricacies that make up the iphone's
             | circuits and screen, the chemicals that make up the
             | battery, etc, assembling themselves into a complete and
             | working phone, even on an infinite timeline, is not that
             | high. And it could, in theory, never actually happen, since
             | if there is still time that you can move forward into,
             | there's still the chance that the moment the iphone
             | assembles itself into a working phone lies somewhere in the
             | future, and always will. It could just never happen before
             | the heat death of the universe.
             | 
             | Possibility does not guarantee probability.
        
             | roenxi wrote:
             | That logic doesn't exactly hold. Consider Gardens of Eden
             | in Game of Life [0]. We can suspect that reality is similar
             | to GoL where there is an infinite space and time that
             | evolves according to some ruleset. In that case it is
             | plausible that there are conceivable states that will,
             | nonetheless, not be assumed even if there are an infinite
             | set of possible states that reality will assume and
             | infinite time to explore them all.
             | 
             | [0] https://conwaylife.com/wiki/Garden_of_Eden
        
         | margalabargala wrote:
         | I agree with your initial argument about why we aren't
         | Boltzmann brains, but I don't think that the same argument
         | follows regarding the simulation hypothesis. A simulation would
         | imply a set of rules being set up, of which your senses, and
         | the reality they experience, are an emergent property. That is,
         | there are rules, and your senses are generally consistent with
         | whatever they are.
         | 
         | With a Boltzmann brain, there's no reason whatsoever to think
         | that any senses are consistent from one moment to the next or
         | that any action can predictably yield any reaction. It would
         | all just be random.
        
         | empath75 wrote:
         | That's a good argument for why it's not worth spending a lot of
         | time being concerned about your own ontological status, but
         | it's not really an argument against the concept or the math
         | behind it. It's a conclusion one could derive from some fairly
         | non-controversial assumptions, and if we're agreeing that the
         | conclusion is wrong, the problem with the chain of logic and
         | math needs to be found.
        
         | weare138 wrote:
         | I think there's an even more interesting implication of
         | Boltzmann brains. The non-local universe is infinite in both
         | time and space and when you're dealing with infinities of time
         | and space two axioms become true. Everything that can occur has
         | to occur and nothing can occur only once. So if intelligent
         | life was able to form in our local universe we would have to
         | assume higher intelligence spontaneously arose, AKA Boltzmann
         | brains, in the non-local universe and exists infinitely.
        
         | egypturnash wrote:
         | A lot of religions can be interpreted in such a way as to
         | essentially say "the entire real world is just a very complex
         | simulation being played out by the Divine"; there there _is_ no
         | real world to know about, just thoughts in the Mind of God.
        
         | sandgiant wrote:
         | Well no, that's not the reason why we're not Boltzmann Brains.
         | A Boltzmann Brain is perfectly capable of believing that it is
         | sensing reality in exactly the same way that your brain
         | believes so.
         | 
         | It is worth reading the section "Modern reactions to the
         | Boltzmann brain problem" in the article to understand why the
         | Boltzmann Brain is a useful thought experiment.
        
         | daseiner1 wrote:
         | My chief complaint is that it's functionally equivalent to
         | belief in God. It strikes me as fundamentally the same instinct
         | but reinterpreted in a manner palatable to the "i'm very
         | logical and rational" crowd.
        
         | ewzimm wrote:
         | The falsifiable part of something like the simulation
         | hypothesis has to do with nested sets. If the reality we exist
         | in is capable of producing everything that would be necessary
         | for a conscious being to experience a convincing reality within
         | its available resources and computational power, then the fact
         | of consciousness is not sufficient to conclude that the reality
         | in which we operate does not exist inside another reality with
         | the same capability to produce an internal model of reality
         | sufficient for supporting consciousness.
         | 
         | As you said, it does not definitively tell us anything about
         | the reality in which that simulation exists other than that it
         | has the same property that we experience of being capable of
         | hosting a nested reality sufficient for supporting
         | consciousness.
         | 
         | Although we can't specify particular aspects of that reality,
         | we are capable of mathematically representing potential
         | properties of universes that have the capability to host a
         | nested simulation. None of this provides certainty, but it
         | provides a basis of exploring possibilities, and actual
         | understanding requires methods beyond the hypothesis of a
         | larger reality.
         | 
         | Physics provides us a lot of ideas about the potential for the
         | nature of reality and methods for testing and falsifying them
         | but is not in itself sufficient. We don't need to find all the
         | answers in one line of inquiry. The holographic principle of
         | string theory is one example of a type of simulation existing
         | inside a larger reality but far from the only one.
        
       | dang wrote:
       | Related:
       | 
       |  _You do not need to worry about the argument that you are a
       | Boltzmann brain_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41031300
       | - July 2024 (1 comment)
       | 
       |  _Boltzmann Brain_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22079253 - Jan 2020 (149
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Boltzmann Brain_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12152658 - July 2016 (17
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Boltzmann brain_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6999074
       | - Jan 2014 (18 comments)
        
       | shagie wrote:
       | Seven years ago, PBS Space time did an episode on Are You a
       | Boltzmann Brain? https://youtu.be/nhy4Z_32kQo (this was also
       | linked in the 2020 post
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22080393 )
        
         | homebrewer wrote:
         | See also this fantastic podcast (if I remember the episode
         | correctly, although it doesn't matter much as they're all good
         | and he talks about the subject frequently because it's tightly
         | related to his day job)
         | 
         | https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2022/06/06/200-...
        
       | unholiness wrote:
       | The way I see it:
       | 
       | The reasonable things that continue happening each day in our
       | universe would be _extremely_ unlikely if we are just Boltzman
       | brains. Every bit of sensible reality would be coincidental. The
       | very continuance of that reality is an experiment constant
       | proving the falsehood of Boltzman brains, at a rate of oh maybe
       | millions of sigmas of confidence per second.
       | 
       | Now, if you believe the universe came to an initial state due to
       | pure thermodynamic coincidence, millions of sigmas per second is
       | laughably small compared to the chance that a whole universe
       | outside your brain popped into existence, so Boltzman brains are
       | the most believable thing and you should believe in them.
       | 
       | This completes a pretty direct argument: Believing the initial
       | state of the universe was a thermodynamic coincidence forces you
       | to believe in Boltzman brains, Boltzman brains force you to
       | believe reality should collapse immediately, and reality does not
       | collapse immediately. Therefore you simply can't believe the
       | first assumption, that initial state of the universe was a
       | thermodynamic coincidence.
       | 
       | Accepting this is often called the "Past Hypothesis". It's spoken
       | of in deferential terms and said that it can't ever be proven...
       | But to me this is rock-solid proof, with more sigmas of evidence
       | than any other scientific discovery and increasing by the second!
       | Can't we just call it the Past Theorem already?
        
         | yoru-sulfur wrote:
         | I am mostly playing devil's advocate
         | 
         | > and reality does not collapse immediately
         | 
         | How do you know that reality does not collapse immediately? At
         | any given instant you could be a fresh brain that just came
         | into existence, all your previous memories which imply a life
         | lived up to this point also formed in that same instant.
        
       | smokedetector1 wrote:
       | I dont need to logically disprove theories like this, because I
       | experience myself in a way that you can't argue against. Trying
       | to convince me my experience of myself is an illusion is, in my
       | view, a horrible case of trying to fit reality to your model. Yet
       | it's one that a surprising number of scientifically minded people
       | enjoy doing, for some reason. Beats me.
        
         | kempje wrote:
         | Here's a different way of thinking about it. There are two
         | things that are both very plausible: One - based on your direct
         | personal experience - is that you are a non-boltzmann-brain-
         | human living a normal life on earth. Two - based on well-
         | accepted science - is that it is MUCH more likely for you to be
         | a boltzmann brain than not.
         | 
         | Great; these two things are seemingly inconsistent. Which means
         | one must be false. But if either of these is false, it's
         | surprising! Because one is based on our direct experience of
         | ourselves, as you have pointed out, and the other is based on
         | well-established science. So what's interesting about Boltzmann
         | brain (and similar) is that it shows that one part of our body
         | of knowledge must be false. And this ought to motivate us to
         | investigate exactly what it is that we have wrong.
        
       | kempje wrote:
       | There is a widely circulated (amongst philosophers) argument
       | against the Boltzmann brain hypothesis made on bayesian grounds.
       | Technical, but very interesting. It's being published next year
       | in what's generally regarded as the top academic journal for
       | philosophy: https://philpapers.org/archive/DOGWIA-6.pdf
        
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