[HN Gopher] Willow, Our Quantum Chip
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Willow, Our Quantum Chip
        
       Author : robflaherty
       Score  : 573 points
       Date   : 2024-12-09 16:28 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (blog.google)
 (TXT) w3m dump (blog.google)
        
       | tombert wrote:
       | Interesting; it might be time for me to load up a quantum
       | simulator and star learning how to program these things.
       | 
       | I've pushed that off for a long time since I wasn't completely
       | convinced that quantum computers actually worked, but I think I
       | was wrong.
        
         | nick__m wrote:
         | IBM has well structured learning material and a quantum
         | simulator at https://learning.quantum.ibm.com/
         | 
         | Also my almamater made the quantum enigmas series that is
         | appropriate for high-school students (it also interesting if
         | you have no prior knowledge about quantum computing)
         | https://www.usherbrooke.ca/iq/quantumenigmas/ (it also use IBM
         | online learning platform)
        
       | gordon_freeman wrote:
       | So one of the interesting comparisons between Quantum computing
       | vs classical in the video: 5 mins vs 10^25 years. So are there
       | any tradeoffs or specific cases in which the use cases for
       | Quantum computing works or is this generic for "all" computing
       | use cases? if later then this will change everything and would
       | change the world.
        
         | dabeeeenster wrote:
         | Its for a very, very, very narrow set of algorithms AFAIUI.
        
         | antognini wrote:
         | There are only certain kinds of computing tasks which are
         | amenable to an exponential speedup from quantum computing. For
         | many classical algorithms the best you get from a quantum
         | computer is an improvement by a factor of sqrt(N) by using
         | Grover's algorithm.
         | 
         | The other tradeoff is that quantum computers are much noisier
         | than classical computers. The error rate of classical computers
         | is exceedingly low, to the extent that most programmers can go
         | their entire career without even considering it as a
         | possibility. But you can see from the figures in this post that
         | even in a state of the art chip, the error rates are of order
         | ~0.03--0.3%. Hopefully this will go down over time, but it's
         | going to be a non-negligible aspect of quantum computing for
         | the foreseeable future.
        
         | pitpatagain wrote:
         | It is specific to cases where a quantum algorithm exists that
         | provides speedup, it is not at all generic. The complexity
         | class of interest is BQP: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BQP
         | 
         | Also of note: P is in BQP, but it is not proven that BQP != P.
         | Some problems like factoring have a known polynomial time
         | algorithm, and the best known classical algorithm is
         | exponential, which is where you see these massive speedups. But
         | we don't know that there isn't an unknown polynomial time
         | classical factoring algorithm and we just haven't discovered it
         | yet. It is a (widely believed) conjecture, that there are hard
         | problems solved in BQP that are outside P.
        
       | nuz wrote:
       | Every time this comes up people say they're not actually useful
       | for ML. Is that true? And if not what would they be useful for
        
         | christkv wrote:
         | In principal NP complete problems is my guess.
        
           | wazdra wrote:
           | It is unknown whether quantum computing makes NP-complete
           | problems easier to solve. There is a complexity class for
           | problems that can be solved "efficiently" on using quantum
           | computing, called BQP. How BQP and NP are related is unknown.
           | In particular, if an NP-complete problem was shown to be
           | solvable efficiently with Quantum Computing (and thus in
           | BQP), this open (and hard) research question would be solved
           | (or at least half of it).
           | 
           | Note that BQP is not "efficient" in a real-word fashion, but
           | for theoretical study of Quantum computing, it's a good first
           | guess
        
           | benbayard wrote:
           | AFAIK, which is not much, I believe it is problems that you
           | can turn in to a cycle. Right now we pull out answers from
           | quantum computers at random, but typically do not know what
           | the inputs were that got that answer. But if you can get the
           | answers from the quantum computer to be cyclical you can use
           | that symmetry to get all the information you need.
        
         | whimsicalism wrote:
         | breaking crypto, for one
        
         | LampCharger wrote:
         | No, a true quantum computer will not necessarily solve NP-
         | complete (NPC) problems efficiently. Quantum algorithms like
         | Grover's provide quadratic speedups, but this is insufficient
         | to turn exponential-time solutions into polynomial-time ones.
         | While quantum computers excel in specific tasks (e.g., Shor's
         | algorithm for factoring), there's no evidence they can solve
         | all NP-complete problems efficiently.
         | 
         | Current complexity theory suggests that , the class of problems
         | solvable by quantum computers, does not encompass . Quantum
         | computers may aid in approximations or heuristics for NPC
         | problems but won't fundamentally resolve them in polynomial
         | time unless , which remains unlikely.
        
         | vessenes wrote:
         | Factoring. Reversing ECC operations. Decrypting all the data
         | thought to be safely stored at rest in any non quantum
         | resistant storage.
         | 
         | I do think ai algorithms could be built that quantum gates
         | could be fast at, but I don't have any ideas off the top of my
         | head this morning. If you think of AI training as searching the
         | space of computational complexity and quantum algorithms as
         | accessing a superposition of search states I would guess
         | there's an intersection. Google thinks so too - the lab is
         | called quantum ai.
        
       | jawns wrote:
       | > It lends credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs
       | in many parallel universes, in line with the idea that we live in
       | a multiverse
       | 
       | I see the evidence, and I see the conclusion, but there's a lot
       | of ellipses between the evidence and the conclusion.
       | 
       | Do quantum computing folks really think that we are borrowing
       | capacity from other universes for these calculations?
        
         | gaze wrote:
         | I'm upset they put this in because this is absolutely not the
         | view of most quantum foundations researchers.
        
           | whimsicalism wrote:
           | the everettian view is absolutely not the view? i am not so
           | sure.
           | 
           | or you mean specifically the parallel computation view?
        
             | gaze wrote:
             | sorry -- the results don't add weight to one view or the
             | other. The interpretations are equivalent.
        
               | whimsicalism wrote:
               | not metaphysically equivalent. also, i'm not so certain
               | it will always be untestable. i would have thought the
               | same thing about hidden variables but i underestimated
               | the cleverness of experimentalists
        
               | DennisP wrote:
               | I think "experimentally equivalent" is what GP meant, and
               | as of today, it holds true. Google's results are
               | predicted by other interpretations just as well as by
               | Everett. Maybe someday there will be a clever experiment
               | to distinguish the models but just "we have a good QC" is
               | not that.
        
               | whimsicalism wrote:
               | i think you're arguing against a point i never made in
               | any of my comments
        
             | wasabi991011 wrote:
             | In my opinion the "shut up and calculate" view is the most
             | common among actual quantum computing researchers.
             | 
             | Unsure about those working on quantum foundations, but I
             | think the absence of consensus is enough to claim any view
             | as absolutely not _the_ view.
        
               | whimsicalism wrote:
               | i don't really view "shut up and calculate" or very
               | restrained copenhagenism as a real view at all.
               | 
               | i think if you were to ask people to make a real
               | metaphysical speculation, majority might be partial to
               | everett - especially if they felt confident the results
               | were anonymous
        
               | wasabi991011 wrote:
               | I agree, but that kind of goes to my point:
               | 
               | I believe the vast majority of researchers in quantum
               | computing* spend almost no time on metaphysical
               | speculation,
               | 
               | *Well, those on the "practical side" that thinks about
               | algorithms and engineering quantum systems like the
               | Google Quantum AI team and others. Not the computer
               | science theorists knee-deep in quantum computational
               | complexity proofs nor physics theorists working on
               | foundations of quantum mechanics. But these last two
               | categories are outnumbered by the "practical" side.
        
           | klipt wrote:
           | Soon: "are alien universes slowing down _your_ internet?
           | Click here to learn more! "
           | 
           | Reminds me of the Aorist Rods from Hitchhikers' Guide to the
           | Galaxy.
        
             | rafram wrote:
             | Well there has to be _some_ reason I 'm not getting the
             | "gigabit" speeds I was quoted.
        
               | duderific wrote:
               | You were probably quoted "up to" gigabit speed. Which
               | means anything from zero to gigabit is acceptable.
        
           | ColinHayhurst wrote:
           | Credibility of the article plummeted when I got to that
           | sentence, and especially since using name dropping.
        
           | ferfumarma wrote:
           | One of the biggest problems with such an assertion is that
           | it's not falsifiable.
           | 
           | It could be that we are borrowing qbit processing power from
           | Russel's quantum teapot.
        
           | hshshshshsh wrote:
           | Science is not based on consensus seeking.
           | 
           | Science is about coming up with the best explanations
           | irrespective of whether or not a large chunk does not believe
           | it.
           | 
           | And best explanations are the ones that is hard to vary. Not
           | the one that is most widely accepted or easy to accept based
           | on the current world view.
        
             | jayd16 wrote:
             | Actually it is exactly based on hypotheses that are
             | verified.
        
               | hshshshshsh wrote:
               | And how do you verify hypothesis? What is the process to
               | do that?
        
               | fwip wrote:
               | You use the hypotheses to make predictions and design
               | experiments. Then you carry those out and see if they
               | support the hypothesis.
               | 
               | Or is this one of those rhetorical questions?
        
             | brisky wrote:
             | David is this you?
        
           | justinpombrio wrote:
           | From Wikipedia[1]:
           | 
           | A poll of 72 "leading quantum cosmologists and other quantum
           | field theorists" conducted before 1991 by L. David Raub
           | showed 58% agreement with "Yes, I think MWI is true".[85]
           | 
           | Max Tegmark reports the result of a "highly unscientific"
           | poll taken at a 1997 quantum mechanics workshop. According to
           | Tegmark, "The many worlds interpretation (MWI) scored second,
           | comfortably ahead of the consistent histories and Bohm
           | interpretations."[86]
           | 
           | In response to Sean M. Carroll's statement "As crazy as it
           | sounds, most working physicists buy into the many-worlds
           | theory",[87] Michael Nielsen counters: "at a quantum
           | computing conference at Cambridge in 1998, a many-worlder
           | surveyed the audience of approximately 200 people... Many-
           | worlds did just fine, garnering support on a level comparable
           | to, but somewhat below, Copenhagen and decoherence." But
           | Nielsen notes that it seemed most attendees found it to be a
           | waste of time: Peres "got a huge and sustained round of
           | applause...when he got up at the end of the polling and asked
           | 'And who here believes the laws of physics are decided by a
           | democratic vote?'"[88]
           | 
           | A 2005 poll of fewer than 40 students and researchers taken
           | after a course on the Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics at
           | the Institute for Quantum Computing University of Waterloo
           | found "Many Worlds (and decoherence)" to be the least
           | favored.[89]
           | 
           | A 2011 poll of 33 participants at an Austrian conference on
           | quantum foundations found 6 endorsed MWI, 8 "Information-
           | based/information-theoretical", and 14 Copenhagen;[90] the
           | authors remark that MWI received a similar percentage of
           | votes as in Tegmark's 1997 poll.[90]
           | 
           | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many-
           | worlds_interpretation#Pol...
        
             | whimsicalism wrote:
             | i think if these polls were anonymous, copenhagen would
             | lose share. there's a reason why MWI is disproportionately
             | popular among people who basically have no professional
             | worries because they are already uber-distinguished.
        
         | korkybuchek wrote:
         | > Do quantum computing folks really think that we are borrowing
         | capacity from other universes for these calculations?
         | 
         | Tangentially related, but there's a great Asimov book about
         | this called The Gods Themselves (fiction).
        
           | vessenes wrote:
           | I'm partial to Anathem by Stephenson on this topic as well
        
             | korkybuchek wrote:
             | Thanks for the recommendation!
        
         | wasabi991011 wrote:
         | I was also really taken aback by this quote.
         | 
         | I have no idea who put it there, but I can assure you the
         | actual paper contains no such nonsense.
         | 
         | I would have thought whoever writes the google tech blogs is
         | more competent than bottom tier science journalists. But in
         | this case I think it is more reasonable to assume malice, as
         | the post is authored by the Google Quantum AI Lead, and makes
         | more sense as hype-boosting buzzword bullshit than as an honest
         | misunderstanding that was not caught during editing.
        
           | hshshshshsh wrote:
           | Quantum computation done in done multiple universes is the
           | explanation given by David Deutsch the father of Quantum
           | Computing. He invented the idea of a quantum computer to test
           | the idea of parallel universes.
           | 
           | If you are okay with a single universe coming to existence
           | out of nothing you should be able to handle parallel
           | universes as well just fine.
           | 
           | Also your comment does not have any useful information. You
           | assumed hype as the reason why they mentioned parallel
           | computing. It's just a bias you have on looking at world.
           | Hype does helps explain a lot of things. So it can be
           | tempting to use it as a placeholder for anything that you
           | don't accept based on your current set of beliefs.
        
             | wasabi991011 wrote:
             | I disagree that it is "the best explanation we have". It's
             | a nice theory, but like all theories in quantum foundations
             | / interpretations of quantum mechanics, it is (at least
             | currently) unfalsifiable.
             | 
             | I didn't "assume" hype, I hypothesized it based on the
             | evidence before me: There is nothing in Google's paper that
             | deals with interpretations of quantum mechanics. This only
             | appears in the blog post, with no evidence given. And there
             | is nothing google is doing with it's quantum chip that
             | would discriminate between interpretations of QM, so it is
             | simply false that "It lends credence to ... parallel
             | universes" over another interpretation.
        
               | hshshshshsh wrote:
               | From what I understand, David Deutsch invented the idea
               | of quantum computer as a way to test Parallel Universes.
               | And later people went on and built the quantum computer.
               | Are you saying that the implementation of a quantum
               | computer does not require any kind of assumption on
               | computations being run in parallel universes?
        
               | Vecr wrote:
               | It's just not how it works. All this type of quantum
               | computer can do is test some of the more dubious
               | objective collapse theories. Those are wrong anyway, so
               | all theories that are still in the running agree.
        
               | lanternfish wrote:
               | In short, no.
        
             | booleandilemma wrote:
             | _If you are okay with a single universe coming to existence
             | out of nothing you should be able to handle parallel
             | universes as well just fine._
             | 
             | We have evidence for this universe though.
        
         | ComputerGuru wrote:
         | It doesn't make sense to me because if we can borrow capacity
         | to perform calculations then we can "borrow" an infinite amount
         | of energy.
        
           | griomnib wrote:
           | Climate change solved: steal energy from adjacent universes,
           | pipe our carbon waste into theirs.
        
             | danielbln wrote:
             | Remind me of The Expanse, where the ring space is syphoning
             | energy from some other universe to keep the gates open.
        
             | kridsdale1 wrote:
             | It's "out of the environment".
        
               | griomnib wrote:
               | We're taking negative externalities to a whole new
               | dimension!
        
             | FridgeSeal wrote:
             | There's a fun short story in qntm's "Valuable Humans In
             | Transit" about a scenario like this.
        
         | rdtsc wrote:
         | > It lends credence to the notion that quantum computation
         | occurs in many parallel universes, in line with the idea that
         | we live in a multiverse, a prediction first made by David
         | Deutsch.
         | 
         | That's in line with a religious belief. One camp believes one
         | thing, other believes something else, others refuse to
         | participate and say "shut up and calculate". Nothing wrong with
         | religious beliefs of course, it's just important to know that
         | is what it is.
        
         | paxys wrote:
         | I don't understand the jump from: classical algorithm takes
         | time A -> quantum algorithm takes time B -> (A - B) must be
         | borrowed from a parallel universe.
         | 
         | Maybe A wasn't the most efficient algorithm for this universe
         | to begin with?
        
         | aithrowawaycomm wrote:
         | I suspect the real issue is that Big Tech investors and
         | executives (including Sundar Pichai) are utterly hopped up on
         | sci-fi, and this sort of stuff convinces them to dedicate
         | resources to quantum computing.
        
           | kridsdale1 wrote:
           | That explains metaverse funding at least.
        
         | ko27 wrote:
         | It's a perfectly legit interpretation of what's happening, and
         | many physicists share the same opinion. Of course the big
         | caveat is that you need to interfere those worlds so that they
         | cancel out, which necessarily requires a lower algorithmic
         | bound which prevents you from doing infinite amount of
         | computation in an instant.
        
         | johnfn wrote:
         | You don't even have to get to the point where you're reading a
         | post off Scott Aaronson's blog[1] at all; his headline says "If
         | you take nothing else from this blog: quantum computers won't
         | solve hard problems instantly by just trying all solutions in
         | parallel."
         | 
         | [1]: https://scottaaronson.blog/
        
         | aithrowawaycomm wrote:
         | In the same way people believe P != NP, most quantum computing
         | people believe BQP != NP, and NP-complete problems will still
         | take exponential time on quantum computers. But if we had
         | access to arbitrary parallel universes then presumably that
         | shouldn't be an issue.
         | 
         | The success on the random (quantum) circuit problem is really a
         | valdiation of Feynman's idea, not Deutsch: classical computers
         | need 2^n bits to simulate n qubits, so we will need quantum
         | computers to efficiently simulate quantum phenomena.
        
           | jumping_frog wrote:
           | Does access to arbitrary parallel universes imply that they
           | divide up the computation and the correct answer is
           | distributed to all of the universes or in such a collection,
           | there will be sucker universes which will always receive
           | wrong answers ?
        
             | aithrowawaycomm wrote:
             | Good question! The whole magic of quantum computation
             | versus parallel computation is that the "universe"
             | probabilities interfere with each other so that wrong
             | answers cancel each other out. So I suppose the wrong
             | "universes" still exist somewhere. But it's a whole lot
             | less confusing if you view QC as taking place in one
             | universe which is fundamentally probabilistic.
        
         | melvinmelih wrote:
         | > It performed a computation in under five minutes that would
         | take one of today's fastest supercomputers 1025 or 10
         | septillion years. If you want to write it out, it's
         | 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.
         | 
         | If it's not, what would be your explanation for this
         | significant improvement then?
        
           | Ar-Curunir wrote:
           | I mean, that's like saying GPUs operate in parallel universes
           | because they can do certain things thousands of times faster
           | than CPUs.
        
           | shawabawa3 wrote:
           | Quantum computing can perform certain calculations much
           | faster than classical computing in the same way classical
           | computing can perform certain calculations much faster than
           | an abacus
        
         | GenerWork wrote:
         | >Do quantum computing folks really think that we are borrowing
         | capacity from other universes for these calculations?
         | 
         | Doesn't this also mean that other universes have civilizations
         | that could potentially borrow capacity from our universe, and
         | if so, what would that look like?
        
         | hshshshshsh wrote:
         | The quantum computer idea was literally invented by David
         | Deutsche to test the many universes theory of quantum physics.
        
           | wasabi991011 wrote:
           | You've mentioned this in another comment. I have to point
           | out, even if this is his opinion, and he has been influential
           | in the field, it does not mean that this specific idea of his
           | has been influential.
        
             | hshshshshsh wrote:
             | Sorry. I don't care whether an idea was influential or not.
             | All I care is whether someone has a better explanation.
        
               | wasabi991011 wrote:
               | I'll remind you of the quote that started this thread:
               | 
               | "Do quantum computing folks really think that we are
               | borrowing capacity from other universes for these
               | calculations?"
               | 
               | In this context, your opinion and Deutsch's opinion don't
               | matter. The question is about whether the idea is common
               | in the field or not.
        
               | hshshshshsh wrote:
               | Okay. I just don't understand. Are you saying Quantum
               | Computers are also implemented without assuming the
               | computations run in parallel universe?
        
               | Vecr wrote:
               | I don't know what he's saying, but I'm saying that the
               | answer to your question is "Yes," unless quantum
               | computers behave differently than expected.
        
               | wasabi991011 wrote:
               | Correct. The laws of quantum mechanics (used for building
               | quantum computers among other things) make very little
               | assumptions on the nature of the universe, and support
               | multiple interpretations, many-worlds being only one of
               | them.
               | 
               | Quantum mechanics is a tool to calculate observable
               | values, and this tool works very successfully without
               | needing to make strong assumptions about the nature of
               | the universe.
        
         | killerstorm wrote:
         | Everett interpretation simply asserts that quantum
         | wavefunctions are real and there's no such thing as
         | "wavefunction collapse". It's the simplest interpretation.
         | 
         | People call it "many worlds" because we can interact only with
         | a tiny fraction of the wavefunction at a time, i.e. other
         | "branches" which are practically out of reach might be
         | considered "parallel universes".
         | 
         | But it would be more correct to say that it's just one universe
         | which is much more complex than what it looks like to our eyes.
         | Quantum computers are able to tap into this complexity. They
         | make a more complete use of the universe we are in.
        
         | layer8 wrote:
         | The Schrodinger equation inherently contains a multiverse. The
         | disagreement is about whether the wave function described by
         | the equation collapses to a single universe upon measurement
         | (i.e. whether the equation stops holding upon measurement), or
         | whether the different branches continue to exist (i.e. the
         | equation continues to hold at all times), each with a different
         | measurement outcome. Regardless, between measurements the
         | different branches exist in parallel. It's what allows quantum
         | computation to be a thing.
        
           | Lionga wrote:
           | Non of that honkey ponkey is needed if you just give up
           | locality and a hard deterministic explanation like De-
           | Broglie-Bohm gives all the same correct measurements and
           | conclusions like Copenhagen interpretation without
           | multiverses and "wave function collapses".
           | 
           | Copenhagen interpretation is just "easier" (like oops all our
           | calculations about the univers don't seemt to fit, lets
           | invent "dark matter") when the correct explanations makes any
           | real world calculation practically impossible (thus ending
           | most of physics further study) as any atom depends on every
           | other atom at any time.
        
           | wasabi991011 wrote:
           | > The Schrodinger equation inherently contains a multiverse.
           | 
           | A simple counterexample is superdeterminism, in which the
           | different measurement outcomes are an illusion and instead
           | there is always a single pre-determined measurement outcome.
           | Note that this does not violate Bell's inequality for hidden
           | variable theories of quantum mechanics, as Bell's inequality
           | only applies to hidden variables uncorrelated to the choice
           | of measurement: in superdeterminism, both are predetermined
           | so perfectly correlated.
        
         | varjag wrote:
         | Yes this is deeply unserious tangent in supposedly landmark
         | technology announcement.
        
           | athesyn wrote:
           | It's just marketing.
        
         | qnleigh wrote:
         | This is a viable interpretation of quantum mechanics, but
         | currently there is no way to scientifically falsify or confirm
         | any particular interpretation. The boundary between philosophy
         | and science is fuzzy at times, but this question is solidly on
         | the side of philosophy.
         | 
         | That being said, I think the two most commonly preferred
         | interpretations of quantum mechanics among physicists are 'Many
         | Worlds' and 'I try not to think about it too hard.'
        
       | htrp wrote:
       | 105 qubits
        
       | wslh wrote:
       | ELI5: what I could do if I have this chip at home?
        
         | wrsh07 wrote:
         | Probably just research on quantum computers? I don't think it's
         | big enough to let you solve any practical problems, but maybe
         | someone can correct me
        
           | d3m0t3p wrote:
           | IF (and that's a big if) that's true then it means they can
           | factorize number into primes with this quantum computer and
           | break encryption.
        
             | Ar-Curunir wrote:
             | No, this quantum computer cannot factorize the large
             | composite numbers that we use for modern RSA. Even for the
             | numbers that it _can_ factor, I don 't think it will be
             | faster than a decent classical computer.
        
             | wasabi991011 wrote:
             | No, that's not what that means.
             | 
             | Not sure what you mean by the "that" when you say "if
             | that's true", but there is nothing in this thread or by
             | google that is anywhere close to breaking encryption.
        
               | bluSCALE4 wrote:
               | How are you so sure? If something that takes years is
               | completed in minutes, how is encryption safe?
        
               | shawabawa3 wrote:
               | The amount of cubits required for a practical application
               | of shors algorithm to break modern encryption is known
               | and it's around 2500 qubits
               | 
               | Willow has 100
        
               | wasabi991011 wrote:
               | Because the "something" in question is not decryption.
               | It's actually specifically something with no useful
               | result, just a benchmark.
               | 
               | Decryption with quantum computers is still likely decades
               | away, as others have pointed out.
               | 
               | To be specific, the best know quantum factoring did 15 =
               | 3x5, and when 35 was not able to be factored when
               | attempted. Most experimental demonstrations have stopped
               | in recent years due to how pointless it currently is.
        
       | readyplayernull wrote:
       | > It lends credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs
       | in many parallel universes, in line with the idea that we live in
       | a multiverse, a prediction first made by David Deutsch.
       | 
       | Processing in multiverse. Would that mean we are inyecting
       | entropy into those other verses? Could we calculate how many are
       | there from the time it takes to do a given calculation? We need
       | to cool the quantum chip in our universe, how are the (n-1)verses
       | cooling on their end?
        
         | deanCommie wrote:
         | What if we are? And by injecting entropy into it, we are
         | actually hurrying (in small insignificant ways) the heat death
         | of those universes? What if we keep going and scale out and in
         | the future it causes a meaningful impact to that universe in a
         | way that it's residents would be extremely unhappy with, and
         | would want to take revenge?
         | 
         | What if it's already happening to our universe? And that is
         | what black holes are? Or other cosmology concepts we don't
         | understand?
         | 
         | Maybe a great filter is your inability to protect your universe
         | from quantum technology from elsewhere in the multiverse
         | ripping yours up?
         | 
         | Maybe the future of sentience isn't fighting for resources on a
         | finite planet, or consuming the energy of stars, but fighting
         | against other multiverses.
         | 
         | Maybe The Dark Forest Defence is a decision to isolate your
         | universe from the multiverse - destroying it's ability to
         | participate in quantum computation, but also extending it's
         | lifespan.
         | 
         | (I don't believe ANY of this, but I'm just noting the
         | fascinating science fiction storylines available)
        
           | navaati wrote:
           | Getting strong vibes of Asimov's novel "The Gods Themselves"
           | here ! For those who haven't read it I recommend it. It's a
           | nice little self-contained book, not a grandiose series and
           | universe, but I love it.
        
           | kridsdale1 wrote:
           | I'd say it's more akin to Dark Energy than anything Black
           | Hole related.
           | 
           | DE is some sort of entropy that is being added to our cosmos
           | in an exponential way over historic time. It began at a point
           | a few billion in to our history.
        
         | jsvlrtmred wrote:
         | AFAIK a fundamental step in any quantum computing algorithm is
         | bringing the qubits back to a state with a nonrandom outcome
         | (specifically, the answer to the problem being solved). Thus a
         | "good" quantum computer does not bifurcate the wavefunction at
         | a macro level, ie there is no splitting of the "multiverse"
         | after the calculation.
        
         | thrance wrote:
         | The many-worlds interpretation of quantum theory [1] is widely
         | considered unfalsifiable and therefore mostly pseudoscientific.
         | This article is way in over it's head in claiming such
         | nonsense.
         | 
         | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many-worlds_interpretation
        
       | ipsum2 wrote:
       | They renamed quantum supremacy to "beyond-classical"? That's
       | something.
        
         | maxboone wrote:
         | https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.06768
         | 
         | It's not something that new, I like it.
        
         | sdenton4 wrote:
         | Quantum supremacy was an absolutely awful name for what it was
         | (ability to do something, anything, better than a classical
         | computer, which remains 'supreme' on all problems of any
         | practical interest).
        
           | airstrike wrote:
           | Sure, but it sounded much cooler
        
       | Mistletoe wrote:
       | In what ways could Google monetize quantum computing?
        
         | michaelt wrote:
         | Searching through an unstructured data set of size N on a
         | classical computer takes O(N) time
         | 
         | but on a quantum computer, Grover's Algorithm allows such a
         | search to be performed in O(N^0.5) time.
         | 
         | So Quantum Computing, could bring us a future where, when you
         | perform a Google search for a word, the web pages returned
         | actually contain the word you searched for.
        
           | _benj wrote:
           | > So Quantum Computing, could bring us a future where, when
           | you perform a Google search for a word, the web pages
           | returned actually contain the word you searched for.
           | 
           | Lol! I'm not gonna put a kagi plug here...
        
       | 7e wrote:
       | Quantum mechanics is a computational shortcut that makes our
       | simulation cost-effective. Mass adoption of chips like these is
       | going to make the particular situation we live in unprofitable
       | for hosts, resulting in the firey and dramatic end of the world
       | for us. Simulating ancestors is fun, but not after your cloud
       | bill skyrockets. Thank you, Google, for bringing about the
       | apocalypse.
        
       | vessenes wrote:
       | I'm a quantum dabbler so I'll throw out an armchair reaction:
       | this is a significant announcement.
       | 
       | My memory is that 256 bit keys in non quantum resistant algos
       | need something like 2500 qubits or so; and by that I mean
       | generally useful programmable qubits. To show a bit over 100
       | qubits with stability, meaning the information survives a while,
       | long enough to be read, and general enough to run some benchmarks
       | on is something many people thought might never come.
       | 
       | There's a sort of religious reaction people have to quantum
       | computing: it breaks so many things that I think a lot of people
       | just like to assume it won't happen: too much in computing and
       | data security will change -> let's not worry about it.
       | 
       | Combined with the slow pace of physical research progress
       | (Schorrs algorithm for quantum factoring was mid 90s), and snake
       | oil sales companies, it's easy to ignore.
       | 
       | Anyway seems like the clock might be ticking; AI and data
       | security will be unalterably different if so. Worth spending a
       | little time doing some long tail strategizing I'd say.
        
         | goatking wrote:
         | How can I, a regular software engineer, learn about quantum
         | computing without having to learn quantum theory?
         | 
         | > Worth spending a little time doing some long tail
         | strategizing I'd say
         | 
         | any tips for starters?
        
           | sshb wrote:
           | Might be worth checking out: https://quantum.country/
        
           | zitterbewegung wrote:
           | I recommend this book I studied it in Undergrad and I never
           | took a quantum theory course. https://www.amazon.com/Quantum-
           | Computing-Computer-Scientists...
        
             | raidicy wrote:
             | Are there any insights that you can give based off the info
             | you've learned about quantum computation that you might not
             | have been able to reach if you hadn't learned about it?
             | 
             | From my __very__ shallow understanding, because all of the
             | efficiency increases are in very specific areas, it might
             | not be useful for the average computer science interested
             | individual?
        
               | zitterbewegung wrote:
               | Nearly all of quantum computation is theoretical
               | algorithms and the hard engineering problems haven't been
               | solved. Most of the math though has a large amount of
               | overlap of AI / ML and all of deep learning to the point
               | that Quantum computers could be used as "ML accelerators"
               | by using algorithms (this is called Quantum Machine
               | learning) [1]. Quantum computing could be learned with a
               | limited understanding of Quantum theory unless you are
               | trying to engineer the hardware.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_machine_learning
        
               | kvathupo wrote:
               | Possibly of interest, but I wrote a (hopefully
               | approachable) report on quantum perceptrons a few years
               | back [1]. Perhaps it's found elsewhere, but I was
               | surprised by how, at least in this quantum algo's case,
               | the basis of training was game theoretic not gradient
               | descent!
               | 
               | [1] - https://kvathupo.github.io/cs/quantum/457_Final_Rep
               | ort.pdf
        
           | potsandpans wrote:
           | Start here: https://youtu.be/F_Riqjdh2oM
           | 
           | You don't need to know quantum theory necessarily, but you
           | will need to know some maths. Specifically linear algebra.
           | 
           | There are a few youtube courses on linear algebra
           | 
           | For a casual set of video: - https://youtube.com/playlist?lis
           | t=PLZHQObOWTQDPD3MizzM2xVFit...
           | 
           | For a more formal approach:
           | 
           | - https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL49CF3715CB9EF31D
           | 
           | And the corresponding open courseware
           | 
           | - https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/18-06-linear-algebra-
           | spring-2010...
           | 
           | Linear algebra done right comes highly recommended
           | 
           | - https://linear.axler.net/
        
             | RossBencina wrote:
             | +1 for 18-06 and Axler. Another, more concrete, option (not
             | sure how much it will help with quantum theory) is Stephen
             | Boyd's "Introduction to Applied Linear Algebra" available
             | online here:
             | 
             | https://web.stanford.edu/~boyd/vmls/
        
           | jvanderbot wrote:
           | There is a course mentioned in the article, but I'm not clear
           | on how "theory" it is.
           | 
           | https://coursera.org/learn/quantum-error-correction
        
           | carabiner wrote:
           | First learn about eigenvalues.
        
           | billti wrote:
           | If you're a software engineer, then the Quantum Katas might
           | fit your learning style. The exercises use Q#, which is
           | quantum specific programming language.
           | 
           | https://quantum.microsoft.com/en-us/tools/quantum-katas
           | 
           | The first few lessons do cover complex numbers and linear
           | algebra, so skip ahead if you want to get straight to the
           | 'quantum' coding, but there's really no escaping the math if
           | you really want to learn quantum.
           | 
           | Disclaimer: I work in the Azure Quantum team on our Quantum
           | Development Kit (https://github.com/microsoft/qsharp) -
           | including Q#, the Katas, and our VS Code extension. Happy to
           | answer any other questions on it.
        
             | auto wrote:
             | Is there a reasonable pivot for someone well versed in the
             | software engineering space to get in, or is it still the
             | playground of relevant Ph.Ds and the like? I've been up and
             | down the stack from firmware to the cloud, going on 14
             | years in the industry, have a Master's in CS, am the
             | technical lead for a team, yada yada, but have been
             | flirting with the idea of getting out of standard product
             | development and back into the nitty gritty of the space I
             | first pursued during undergrad.
        
               | almostgotcaught wrote:
               | > Is there a reasonable pivot for someone well versed in
               | the software engineering space to get in, or is it still
               | the playground of relevant Ph.Ds and the like?
               | 
               | there's no such thing as a practical QC and there won't
               | be for decades. this isn't a couple of years away - this
               | is "maybe, possibly, pretty please, if we get lucky"
               | 25-50 years away. find the above comment that alludes to
               | "2019 estimates needing ~20 million physical qubits" and
               | consider that this thing has 105 physical qubits. then
               | skim the posted article and find this number
               | 
               | > the key quantum computational resource -- are now
               | approaching 100 us (microseconds)
               | 
               | that's how long those 105 physical qubits stay coherent
               | for. now ponder your career pivot.
               | 
               | source: i dabbled during my PhD - took a couple of
               | classes from Fred Chong, wrote a paper - it's all hype.
        
           | kvathupo wrote:
           | The bar for entry is surprisingly low, you just need to brush
           | up on intro abstract algebra. I recommend the following:
           | 
           | 1. Kaye, LaFlamme, and Mosca - An Introduction to Quantum
           | Computing
           | 
           | 2. Nielsen and Chuang - Quantum Computation and Quantum
           | Information (The Standard reference source)
           | 
           | 3. Andrew Childs's notes here [1]. Closest to the state-of-
           | the-art, at least circa ~3 years ago.
           | 
           | [1] - https://www.cs.umd.edu/~amchilds/qa/
        
           | neoden wrote:
           | These lessons might be of help:
           | https://youtu.be/3-c4xJa7Flk?si=krrpXMKh3X5ktrzT
        
           | currymj wrote:
           | specifically avoid resources written by and for physicists.
           | 
           | the model of quantum mechanics, if you can afford to ignore
           | any real-world physical system and just deal with abstract
           | |0>, |1> qubits, is relatively easy. (this is really funny
           | given how incredibly difficult actual quantum physics can
           | be.)
           | 
           | you have to learn basic linear algebra with complex numbers
           | (can safely ignore anything really gnarly).
           | 
           | then you learn how to express Boolean circuits in terms of
           | different matrix multiplications, to capture classical
           | computation in this model. This should be pretty easy if you
           | have a software engineer's grasp of Boolean logic.
           | 
           | Then you can learn basic ideas about entanglement, and a few
           | of the weird quantum tricks that make algorithms like Shor
           | and Grover search work. Shor's algorithm may be a little
           | mathematically tough.
           | 
           | realistically you probably will never need to know how to
           | program a quantum computer even if they become practical and
           | successful. applications are powerful but very limited.
           | 
           | "What You Shouldn't Know About Quantum Computers" is a good
           | non-mathematical read.
           | 
           | https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.15838
        
           | ajb wrote:
           | The simplest algorithm to understand is probably Grover's
           | algorithm. Knowing that shows you how to get an sqrt(N)
           | speedup on many classical algorithms. Then have a look at
           | shor's algorithm which is the classic factoring algorithm.
           | 
           | I would not worry about hardware at first. But if you are
           | interested and like physics, the simplest to understand are
           | linear optical quantum circuits. These use components which
           | may be familiar from high school or undergraduate physics.
           | The catch is that the space (and component count) is
           | exponential in the number of qubits, hence the need for more
           | exotic designs.
        
         | thrance wrote:
         | The error rates given are still horrendous and nowhere near low
         | enough for the Quantum Fourier Transform used by Shor's
         | algorithm. Taking qubit connectivity into account, a single CX
         | between 2 qubits that are 10 edges aways gives an error rate of
         | 1.5%.
         | 
         | Also, the more qubits you have/the more instructions are in
         | your program, the faster the quantum state collapses.
         | Exponentially so. Qubit connectivity is still ridiculously low
         | (~3) and does not seem to be improving at all.
         | 
         | About AI, what algorithm(s) do you think might have an edge
         | over classical supercomputers in the next 30 years? I'm really
         | curious, because to me it's all (quantum) snake oil.
        
           | LeftHandPath wrote:
           | Re: AI, it's a long way off still. The big limitation to
           | anything quantum is always going to be decoherence and t-time
           | [0]. To do anything with ML, you'll need whole circuit (more
           | complex than shor's) just to initialize the data on the
           | quantum device; the algorithms to do this are complex
           | (exponential) [1]. So, you have to run a very expensive data-
           | initialization circuit, and only then can you start to run
           | your ML circuit. All of this needs to be done within the
           | machine's t-time limit. If you exceed that limit, then the
           | measured state of a qubit will have more to do with outside-
           | world interactions than interactions with your quantum gates.
           | 
           | Google's willow chip has t-times of about 60-100mu.s. That's
           | not an impressive figure -- in 2022, IBM announced their
           | Eagle chip with t-times of around 400mu.s [2]. Google's angle
           | here would be the error correction (EC).
           | 
           | The following portion from Google's announcement seems most
           | important:
           | 
           | > With 105 qubits, Willow now has best-in-class performance
           | across the two system benchmarks discussed above: quantum
           | error correction and random circuit sampling. Such
           | algorithmic benchmarks are the best way to measure overall
           | chip performance. Other more specific performance metrics are
           | also important; for example, our T1 times, which measure how
           | long qubits can retain an excitation -- the key quantum
           | computational resource -- are now approaching 100 us
           | (microseconds). This is an impressive ~5x improvement over
           | our previous generation of chips.
           | 
           | Again, as they lead with, their focus here is on error
           | correction. I'm not sure how their results compare to
           | competitors, but it sounds like they consider that to be the
           | biggest win of the project. The RCS metric is interesting,
           | but RCS has no (known) practical applications (though it is a
           | common benchmark). Their T-times are an improvement over
           | older Google chips, but not industry-leading.
           | 
           | I'm curious if EC can mitigate the sub-par decoherence times.
           | 
           | [0]: https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.270.5242
           | .163...
           | 
           | [1]: https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.5555/3511065.3511068
           | 
           | [2]: https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/eagle-quantum-
           | processor-per...
        
             | wasabi991011 wrote:
             | > I'm curious if EC can mitigate the sub-par decoherence
             | times.
             | 
             | The main EC paper referenced in this blog post showed that
             | the logical qubit lifetime using a distance-7 code (all 105
             | qubits) was double the lifetime of the physical qubits of
             | the same machine.
             | 
             | I'm not sure how lifetime relates to decoherence time, but
             | if that helps please let me know.
        
               | LeftHandPath wrote:
               | That's very useful, I missed that when I read through the
               | article.
               | 
               | If the logical qubit can have double the lifetime of any
               | physical qubit, that's massive. Recall IBM's chips, with
               | t-times of ~400microseconds. Doubling that would change
               | the order of magnitude.
               | 
               | It still won't be enough to do much in the near term -
               | like other commenters say, this seems to be a proof of
               | concept - but the concept is very promising.
               | 
               | The first company to get there and make their systems
               | easy to use could see a similar run up in value to NVIDIA
               | after ChatGPT3. IBM seems to be the strongest in the
               | space overall, for now.
        
               | deepburner wrote:
               | I'm sorry if this is nitpicky but your comment is
               | hilarious to me - doubling something is doubling
               | something, "changing the order of magnitude" would entail
               | multiplication by 10.
        
               | LeftHandPath wrote:
               | Hahaha not at all, great catch. Sometimes my gray matter
               | just totally craps out... like thinking of "changing
               | order of magnitude" as "adding 1 extra digit".
               | 
               | Reminds me of the time my research director pulled me
               | aside for defining CPU as "core processing unit" instead
               | of "central processing unit" in a paper!
        
             | JanisErdmanis wrote:
             | Wouldn't thoose increased decoherence times need to be
             | viewed in relation to the time it takes to execute a basic
             | gate? If the time to execute a gate also increases it may
             | overtake practicality of having less noisy logical qubits.
        
         | JanisErdmanis wrote:
         | The required number of qubits to execute Shor's algorithm is
         | way larger than 2500 qubits as the error ceiling for logical
         | qubits must decrease exponentially with every logical qubit
         | added to produce meaningful results. Hence, repeated
         | applications of error correction or an increase in the surface
         | code would be required. That would significantly blow up the
         | number of physical qubits needed.
        
           | adastra22 wrote:
           | He's quoting the number of logical qubits (which is 1024
           | IIRC, not 2500), after error correction.
           | 
           | ETA: Wikipedia 2330 qubits, but I'm not sure it is citing the
           | most recent work: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliptic-
           | curve_cryptography#ci...
        
             | pclmulqdq wrote:
             | 1024 is for RSA-1024, which is believed to be broken by
             | classical means at this point. Everyone doing anything with
             | RSA is on 4k or larger.
        
               | Vecr wrote:
               | They are? The short term recommendation is 3072, and I
               | still see lots of 2048. Actually, it's mostly 2048.
        
               | wcoenen wrote:
               | > _Everyone doing anything with RSA is on 4k or larger._
               | 
               | The Let's Encrypt intermediate certificates R10 and R11
               | seem to be only 2048 bit.
        
               | pclmulqdq wrote:
               | A signature (not encryption) with short-term valid life
               | is fine at 2048 still.
        
               | adastra22 wrote:
               | I took this conversation to be about ECC, not RSA.
        
               | notarealllama wrote:
               | My completely unfounded tin foil hat at the moment is
               | that ECC was pushed as a standard not because it was
               | faster/ smaller, but the smaller bit size makes it less
               | quantum resistant and is more prone to be broken first
               | (if not already) via quantum supremacy.
        
               | pclmulqdq wrote:
               | Discrete log doesn't use Shor's algorithm, and appears to
               | need more qubits to break (per key bit).
        
             | JanisErdmanis wrote:
             | I actually thought the number of logical qubits needed was
             | around 20 for factorisation as the state space size is
             | 2^(2^n) and hence did not recognise them as the number of
             | logical qubits required. It is often misunderstood that
             | error correction needs to be done only once, as with
             | classical quantum computers, and the numbers would fit
             | together with one pass of error correction.
             | 
             | The Shor's algorithm requires binary encoding; hence, 2048
             | logical qubits are needed to become a nuance for
             | cryptography. This, in turn, means that one will always be
             | easily able to run away from a quantum adversary by paying
             | a polynomial price on group element computations, whereas a
             | classical adversary is exponentially bounded in computation
             | time, and a quantum adversary is exponentially bounded with
             | a number of physical qubits. Fascinating...
        
           | The5thElephant wrote:
           | Isn't that what they are claiming is true now? That the
           | errors do decrease exponentially with each qubit added?
        
         | isoprophlex wrote:
         | Data security okay. But AI? How will that change?
        
           | adastra22 wrote:
           | AI is essentially search. Quantum computers are really good
           | at search.
        
             | sheeshkebab wrote:
             | Search of what?
        
               | roywiggins wrote:
               | Latent space?
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latent_space
        
               | adastra22 wrote:
               | Anything. Everything. In domains where the search space
               | is small enough to physically enumerate and store or
               | evaluate every option, search is commonly understood as a
               | process solved by simple algorithms. In domains where the
               | search space is too large to physically realize or index,
               | search becomes "intelligence."
               | 
               | E.g. winning at Chess or Go (traditional AI domains) is
               | searching through the space of possible game states to
               | find a most-likely-to-win path.
               | 
               | E.g. an LLM chat application is searching through
               | possible responses to find one which best correlates with
               | expected answer to the prompt.
               | 
               | With Grover's algorithm, quantum computers let you find
               | an answer in any disordered search space with O(sqrt(N))
               | operations instead of O(N). That's potentially applicable
               | to many AI domains.
               | 
               | But if you're so narrow minded as to only consider
               | connectionist / neural network algorithms as "AI", then
               | you may be interested to know that quantum linear algebra
               | is a thing too:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HHL_algorithm
        
               | cwillu wrote:
               | O(sqrt(N)) is easily dominated by the relative ease of
               | constructing much bigger classical computers though.
        
               | adastra22 wrote:
               | Uh, no? Not for large N.
               | 
               | There are about 2^152 possible legal chess states. You
               | cannot build a classical computer large enough to compute
               | that many states. Cryptography is generally considered
               | secure when it involves a search space of only 2^100
               | states.
               | 
               | But you could build a computer to search though
               | sqrt(2^152) = 2^76 states. I mean it'd be big--that's on
               | the order of total global storage capacity. But not
               | "bigger than the universe" big.
        
               | IanCal wrote:
               | Doing 2^76 iterations is _huge_. That 's a trillion
               | operations a second for two and a half thousand years if
               | I've not slipped up and missed a power of ten.
        
               | spencerchubb wrote:
               | training an ai model is essentially searching for
               | parameters that can make a function really accurate at
               | making predictions. in the case of LLMs, they predict
               | text.
        
             | cwillu wrote:
             | Unstructured search is only a [?]n improvement. You need to
             | find some way for algorithmically significant
             | interference/cancellation of terms in order for a qc to
             | potentially (!) have any benefit.
        
           | numpad0 wrote:
           | Aren't quantum computers expected to be like digitally read
           | analog computers for high dimension optimization problems,
           | and AI is like massive high dimension optimization problems?
        
             | Yoric wrote:
             | Google is betting on digital quantum computers.
             | 
             | There are, however, analog quantum computers, e.g. by
             | Pasqal, which hope to capitalize on this to optimize AI-
             | like high dimension optimization problems.
        
               | gecko22 wrote:
               | Why do quantum computers need to be analog to be applied
               | to such problems?
        
         | winwang wrote:
         | Edit after skimming arxiv preprint[1]:
         | 
         | Yeah, this is pretty huge. They achieved the result with
         | surface codes, which are general ECCs. The repetition code was
         | used to further probe quantum ECC floor. "Just POC" likely
         | doesn't do it justice.
         | 
         | (Original comment):
         | 
         | Also quantum dabbler (coincidentally dabbled in bitflip quantum
         | error correction research). Skimmed the post/research blog. I
         | believe the key point is the scaling of error correction via
         | repetition codes, would love someone else's viewpoint.
         | 
         | Slightly concerning quote[2]:
         | 
         | """
         | 
         | By running experiments with repetition codes and ignoring other
         | error types, we achieve lower encoded error rates while
         | employing many of the same error correction principles as the
         | surface code. The repetition code acts as an advance scout for
         | checking whether error correction will work all the way down to
         | the near-perfect encoded error rates we'll ultimately need.
         | 
         | """
         | 
         | I'm getting the feeling that this is more about proof-of-
         | concept, rather than near-practicality, but this is certainly
         | one fantastic POC if true.
         | 
         | [1]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.13687
         | 
         | [2]: https://research.google/blog/making-quantum-error-
         | correction...
         | 
         | Relevant quote from preprint (end of section 1, sorry for copy-
         | paste artifacts):
         | 
         | """
         | 
         | In this work, we realize surface codes operating below
         | threshold on two superconducting processors. Using a 72-qubit
         | processor, we implement a distance-5 surface code operating
         | with an integrated real-time decoder. In addition, using a
         | 105-qubit processor with similar performance, we realize a
         | distance-7 surface code. These processors demonstrate L > 2 up
         | to distance-5 and distance7, respectively. Our distance-5
         | quantum memories are beyond break-even, with distance-7
         | preserving quantum information for more than twice as long as
         | its best constituent physical qubit. To identify possible
         | logical error f loors, we also implement high-distance
         | repetition codes on the 72-qubit processor, with error rates
         | that are dominated by correlated error events occurring once an
         | hour. These errors, whose origins are not yet understood, set a
         | current error floor of 10-10. Finally, we show that we can
         | maintain below-threshold operation on the 72qubit processor
         | even when decoding in real time, meeting the strict timing
         | requirements imposed by the processor's fast 1.1us cycle
         | duration.
         | 
         | """
        
           | echelon wrote:
           | Google could put themselves and everyone else out of business
           | if the algorithms that underpin our ability to do e-commerce
           | and financial transactions can be defeated.
           | 
           | Goodbye not just to Bitcoin, but also Visa, Stripe, Amazon
           | shopping, ...
        
             | mperham wrote:
             | Right? Does TLS1.3 have the underpinnings to use quantum-
             | proof encryption algos?
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-quantum_cryptography
             | 
             | https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/project/post-
             | quantu...
             | 
             | https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbestechcouncil/2024/10/0
             | 9...
        
               | bangaladore wrote:
               | It seems you can get TLS 1.3 (or atlest slighty modified
               | 1.3) to be quantum secure, but it increases the handshake
               | size by roughly 9x. Cloudflare unfortunately didn't
               | mention much about the other downsides though.
               | 
               | https://blog.cloudflare.com/kemtls-post-quantum-tls-
               | without-...
        
               | SAI_Peregrinus wrote:
               | Yes-ish. They're not enabled yet, but post-quantum
               | signatures & KEMs are available in some experimental
               | versions of TLS. None are yet standardized, but I'd
               | expect a final version well before QCs can actually break
               | practical signatures or key exchanges.
        
             | bluSCALE4 wrote:
             | Why is no one else talking about this? I came here to see a
             | discussion about this and encryption.
        
               | wasabi991011 wrote:
               | Because this result is still very far from anything
               | related to practical decryption.
        
             | shriphani wrote:
             | bitcoin proof of work is not as impacted by quantum
             | computers - grover's algorithm provides a quadratic speedup
             | for unstructured search - so SHA256 ends up with 128 bits
             | of security for pre-image resistance. BTC can easily move
             | to SHA512.
             | 
             | symmetric ciphers would have similar properties (AES,
             | CHACHA20). Asymmetric encryption atm would use ECDH (which
             | breaks) to generate a key for use with symmetric ciphers -
             | Kyber provides a PQC KEM for this.
             | 
             | So, the situation isn't as bad. We're well positioned in
             | cryptography to handle a PQC world.
        
           | wasabi991011 wrote:
           | You got the main idea, it's a proof-of-concept: that a class
           | of error-correcting code on real physical quantum chips obey
           | the threshold theorem, as is expected based on theory and
           | simulations.
           | 
           | However the main scaling of error correction is via surface
           | codes, not repetition codes. It's an important point as
           | surface codes correct all Pauli errors, not just either bit-
           | flips or phase-flips.
           | 
           | They use repetition codes as a diagnostic method in this
           | paper more than anything, it is not the main result.
           | 
           | In particular, I interpret the quote you used as: "We want to
           | scale surface codes even more, and if we were able to do the
           | same scaling with surface codes as we are able to do with
           | repetition codes, then this is the behaviour we would
           | expect."
           | 
           | Edit: Welp, saw your edit, you came to the same conclusion
           | yourself in the time it took me to write my comment.
        
             | winwang wrote:
             | Haha, classic race condition, but I appreciate your take
             | nonetheless!
        
         | bee_rider wrote:
         | I think some element of it might be: Shor's algorithm has been
         | known of for 30 years, and hypothetically could be used to
         | decrypt captured communications, right? So, retroactively I
         | will have been dumb for not having switched to a quantum-
         | resistant scheme. And, dumb in a way that a bunch of academic
         | nerds have been pointing out for decades.
         | 
         | That level of embarrassment is frankly difficult to face. And
         | it would be devastating to the self-image of a bunch of
         | "practical" security gurus.
         | 
         | Therefore any progress must be an illusion. In the real world,
         | the threats are predictable and mistakes don't slowly snowball
         | into a crisis. See also, infrastructure.
        
           | adastra22 wrote:
           | What would you switch to? There hasn't been post quantum
           | systems to use until very very recently.
        
         | cherryteastain wrote:
         | > AI and data security will be unalterably different if so
         | 
         | Definitely agree with the latter, but do you have any sources
         | on how quantum comphters make "AI" (i.e. matrix multiplication)
         | faster?
        
           | meta_x_ai wrote:
           | Exploring via Search can become O(1) instead of M^N
        
         | npalli wrote:
         | > Worth spending a little time doing some long tail
         | strategizing I'd say.
         | 
         | Yup, like Bitcoin going to zero.
        
           | drcode wrote:
           | eh, they will add a quantum-resistant signature scheme
           | (already a well-understood thing) then people can transfer
           | their funds to the new addresses before it is viable to crack
           | the existing addresses
        
           | K0balt wrote:
           | I think you're going to need about 10,000,000 qbits to divert
           | a transaction, but that's still within foreseeable scale. I
           | think it's extreme likely that the foundation will have
           | finished their quantum resistance planning before we get to
           | 10MM coherent qbits, but still, it's a potential scenario.
           | 
           | More likely that other critical infrastructure failures will
           | happen within trad-finance, much larger vulnerability
           | footprint, and being able to trivially reverse engineer every
           | logged SSL session is likely to be a much more impactful turn
           | of events. I'd venture that there are significant ear-on-the-
           | wire efforts going on right now in anticipation of a
           | reasonable bulk SSL de cloaking solution. Right now we think
           | it doesn't matter who can see our "secure" traffic. I think
           | that is going to change, retroactively, in a big way.
        
             | vessenes wrote:
             | I agree that the scary scenario is stored SSL frames from
             | 20 years of banking. That's nuclear meltdown scenarios.
        
               | K0balt wrote:
               | It is.. and I don't see a way to avoid it.
        
           | sekai wrote:
           | > Yup, like Bitcoin going to zero.
           | 
           | If the encryption on Bitcoin is broken, say goodbye to the
           | banking system.
        
             | nadahalli wrote:
             | [pedantic hat on] Bitcoin doesn't use encryption.
             | 
             | You mean digital signatures - and yes, we use signatures
             | everywhere in public key cryptography.
        
           | vessenes wrote:
           | I'm a _little_ more in my wheelhouse here -- without an algo
           | change, Grover 's algorithm would privilege quantum miners
           | significantly, but not any more than the industry has seen in
           | the last 13 years (C code on CPU -> GPU -> Large Geometry
           | ASIC -> Small Geometry ASIC are similarly large shifts in
           | economics for miners probably).
           | 
           | As to faking signatures and, e.g. stealing Satoshi's coins or
           | just fucking up the network with fake transactions that
           | verify, there is some concern and there are some attack
           | vectors that work well if you have a large, fast quantum
           | computer and want to ninja in. Essentially you need something
           | that can crack a 256 bit ECDSA key before a block that
           | includes a recently released public key can be inverted.
           | That's definitely out of the reach of anyone right now, much
           | less persistent threat actors, much less hacker hobbyists.
           | 
           | But it won't always be. The current state of the art plan
           | would be to transition to a quantum-resistant UTXO format,
           | and I would imagine, knowing how Bitcoin has managed itself
           | so far, that will be a well-considered, very safe, multi-year
           | process, and it will happen with plenty of time.
        
         | qnleigh wrote:
         | You need to distinguish between "physical qubits" and "logical
         | qubits." This paper creates a single "first-of-a-kind" logical
         | qubit with about 100 physical qubits (using Surface Code
         | quantum error correction). A paper from Google in 2019
         | estimates needing ~20 million physical qubits ("How to factor
         | 2048 bit RSA integers in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits"
         | - https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.09749), though recent advances
         | probably brought this number down a bit. That's because to run
         | Shor's algorithm at a useful scale, you need a few thousand
         | very high quality logical qubits.
         | 
         | So despite this significant progress, it's probably a still a
         | while until RSA is put out of the job. That being said, quantum
         | computers would be able to retroactively break any public keys
         | that were stored, so there's a case to be made for switching to
         | quantum-resistant cryptography (like lattice-based
         | cryptography) sooner rather than later.
        
           | rhubarbtree wrote:
           | This is correct. I worked in quantum research a little.
        
         | r33b33 wrote:
         | > Worth spending a little time doing some long tail
         | strategizing I'd say.
         | 
         | What do you mean by this?
        
           | unethical_ban wrote:
           | The _only_ thing I know or understand about quantum computing
           | is its ability to  "crack" traditional encryption algorithms.
           | 
           | So the commenter is saying that Cybersecurity needs to be
           | planning for a near-world where traditional cryptography,
           | including lots of existing data at rest, is suddenly as
           | insecure as plaintext.
        
         | sizzle wrote:
         | How long until this can derive a private key from its public
         | key in the cryptocurrency space? Is this an existential threat
         | to crypto?
        
       | vhiremath4 wrote:
       | I really wish the release videos made things a ~tad~ bit less
       | technical. I know quantum computers are still very early so the
       | target audience is technical for this kind of release, but I
       | can't help wonder how many more people would be excited and
       | pulled in if they made the main release video more approachable.
        
       | rdtsc wrote:
       | The main part for me is reducing error faster as they scale. This
       | was a major road-block, known as "below threshold". That's a
       | major achievement.
       | 
       | I am not sure about RCS as the benchmark as not sure how useful
       | that is in practice. It just produced really nice numbers. If I
       | had a few billions of pocket change around, would I buy this to
       | run RCS really fast? -Nah, probably not. I'll get more excited
       | when they factor numbers at a rate that would break public key
       | crypto. For that would spend my pocket change!
        
         | vessenes wrote:
         | The implication seems to be that they can implement other
         | gates. As my gen z kids say: huge if true.
        
           | wasabi991011 wrote:
           | It's really important to note that the error correction test
           | and the random circuit test are separate tests.
           | 
           | The error correction is producing a single logical qubit of
           | quantum memory, i.e. a single qubit with no gates applied to
           | it.
           | 
           | Meanwhile, the random circuit sampling uses physical qubits
           | with no error correction, and is used as a good benchmark in
           | part because it can prove "quantumness" even in the presence
           | of noise.[1]
           | 
           | [1] https://research.google/blog/validating-random-circuit-
           | sampl...
        
       | fidotron wrote:
       | The slightly mind blowing bit is detailed here: >
       | https://research.google/blog/making-quantum-error-correction...
       | 
       | "the first quantum processor where error-corrected qubits get
       | exponentially better as they get bigger"
       | 
       | Achieving this turns the normal problem of scaling quantum
       | computation upside down.
        
         | thrance wrote:
         | It also breaks a fundamental law of quantum theory, that the
         | bigger a system in a quantum state is, the faster it collapses,
         | exponentially so. Which should at least tell you to take
         | Google's announcement with z grain of salt.
        
           | wasabi991011 wrote:
           | This is not a "fundamental law of quantum theory", as
           | evidenced by the field of quantum error correcting codes.
           | 
           | Google's announcement is legit, and is in line with what
           | theory and simulations expect.
        
       | whimsicalism wrote:
       | We need to seriously think if our systems/society are even
       | remotely ready for this.
        
         | germandiago wrote:
         | In order to evolve, forbiding evolution is the wrong path. Just
         | use and study and learn from new things and accumulate
         | experience is the way to go.
        
           | kridsdale1 wrote:
           | Biological evolution occurs on the backs of millions of
           | deaths.
        
             | hello_computer wrote:
             | and a few extinctions!
        
         | _benj wrote:
         | This comment reminded me of the TV show I've been recently
         | watching on Netflix, Pantheon. It's about a different technical
         | breakthrough (I don't want to put any spoilers), but it's also
         | something that completely alters society, no security is able
         | to deal with that new technology, first thing that happens is
         | that the technology is weaponized... etc.
         | 
         | Idk enough about quantum computing to even understand this...
         | but a technology that turns, say, AES or Blowfish, suddenly
         | trivial to crack would very likely change the world
        
           | kridsdale1 wrote:
           | This is how I feel about drones.
        
             | riiii wrote:
             | They'll be banned for public use in the next 2-3 years. I'm
             | not advocating for the ban, just saying it'll happen.
        
               | debacle wrote:
               | It's easier to make a "ghost drone" than a "ghost gun."
               | Banning will not be feasible for bad actors.
        
         | seanw444 wrote:
         | They're not. What's there to think about?
        
         | preisschild wrote:
         | As if "thinking about it" will ever stop people from acting
         | first.
         | 
         | I'm far more scared when tech-bros like Musk land on Mars and
         | contaminate stuff we might not even be able to detect yet.
        
           | whimsicalism wrote:
           | i'm not even remotely 'far more scared' about that. i think
           | you are insufficiently scared about crypto being broken
        
       | taf2 wrote:
       | Is this using ionq or is this in-house from google?
        
         | vessenes wrote:
         | They say in-house with their own US fab in the announcement.
        
       | DebtDeflation wrote:
       | >the more qubits we use in Willow, the more we reduce errors, and
       | the more quantum the system becomes
       | 
       | That's an EXTRAORDINARY claim and one that contradicts the
       | experience of pretty much all other research and development in
       | quantum error correction over the course of the history of
       | quantum computing.
        
         | wasabi991011 wrote:
         | It's really not so extraordinary, exponential reduction in
         | logical errors when the physical error rate is below a
         | threshold (for certain types of error correcting codes_ is well
         | accepted an both theoretical and computational grounds.
         | 
         | For a rough but well-sourced overview, see Wikipedia:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Threshold_theorem
         | 
         | For a review paper on surface codes, see A. G. Fowler, M.
         | Mariantoni, J. M. Martinis, and A. N. Cleland, "Surface codes:
         | Towards practical large-scale quantum computation," Phys. Rev.
         | A, vol. 86, no. 3, p. 032324, Sep. 2012, doi:
         | 10.1103/PhysRevA.86.032324.
        
           | DebtDeflation wrote:
           | Does this not assume uncorrelated errors?
        
             | wasabi991011 wrote:
             | It does. It's up to engineering to make errors
             | uncorrelated. The google paper being referenced actually
             | makes an "error budget" to see what the main sources of
             | errors are, and also run tests to find sources of
             | correlated errors.
             | 
             | The claim about this is that correlated errors will lead to
             | an "error floor", a certain size of error correction past
             | which exponential reduction in errors no longer applies,
             | due to a certain frequency of correlated errors. See figure
             | 3a of the arxiv version of the paper:
             | https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.13687
        
         | qnleigh wrote:
         | I wouldn't call it extraordinary, as this has been expected
         | since the first quantum error correcting codes were worked out
         | theoretically. But it is a strong claim, backed up with
         | comparably strong evidence. Figure 1d of the paper shows
         | exactly this https://arxiv.org/html/2408.13687v1, and unlike
         | many other comparable works, there are no hat tricks like post-
         | selection to boost the numbers.
        
         | deepburner wrote:
         | it... doesn't? threshold theorems are well known.
        
         | da-bacon wrote:
         | >That's an EXTRAORDINARY claim and one that contradicts the
         | experience of pretty much all other research and development in
         | quantum error correction over the course of the history of
         | quantum computing.
         | 
         | Not sure why you would say that? This sort of exponential
         | suppression of errors is exactly how quantum error correction
         | works and why we think quantum computing is viable. Source:
         | have worked on quantum error correction for a couple of
         | decades. Disclosure: I work on the team that did this
         | experiment. More reading: lecture notes from back in the day
         | explaining this exponential suppression
         | https://courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/cse599d/06wi/lectu...
        
       | deanCommie wrote:
       | I don't want to judge people by their cover, but I want to
       | confess to having those feelings right now.
       | 
       | In this day and age, I feel an immediate sense of distrust to any
       | technologist with the "Burning Man" aesthetic for lack of a
       | better word. (which you can see in the author's wikipedia profile
       | from an adjacent festival ->
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartmut_Neven, as well as in this
       | blog itself with his wristbands and sunglasses ->
       | https://youtu.be/l_KrC1mzd0g?si=HQdB3NSsLBPTSv-B&t=39)
       | 
       | In the 2000's, any embracement of alternative culture was a
       | breath of fresh air for technologists - it showed they cared
       | about the human element of society as much as the mathematics.
       | 
       | But nowadays, especially in a post-truthiness, post-COVID world,
       | it comes off in a different way to me. Our world is now filled
       | with quasi-scientific cults. From flat earthers to anti-vaxxers,
       | to people focused on "healing crystals", to the resurgence of
       | astrology.
       | 
       | I wouldn't be saying this about anyone in a more shall we say
       | "classical" domain. As a technologist, your claims are pretty
       | easily verifiable and testable, even on fuzzy areas like large
       | language models.
       | 
       | But in the Quantum world? I immediately start to approach the
       | author of this with distrust:
       | 
       | * He's writing about multiverses
       | 
       | * He's claiming a quantum performance for something that would
       | take a classical computer septillions of years.
       | 
       | I'm a layman in this domain. If these were true, should they be
       | front page news on CNN and the BBC? Or is this just how
       | technology breakthroughs start (after all the Transformer paper
       | wasn't)
       | 
       | But no matter what I just can't help but feel like the author's
       | choices harm the credibility of the work. Before you downvote me,
       | consider replying instead. I'm not defending feeling this way.
       | I'm just explaining what I feel and why.
        
         | bubblyworld wrote:
         | I don't share your mistrust of the aesthetic, but I think it's
         | pretty natural to be skeptical of the out-group, so to speak,
         | doubly so if you have no practical way of verifying their
         | claims. At least you're honest about it!
         | 
         | I guess something to think about it that amongst a group like
         | the "burners" there is huge variety in individual experience
         | and skill. And even within a single human mind it's possible to
         | have radically groundbreaking thoughts in one domain, and
         | simultaneously be a total crack-pot in another. Linus Pauling
         | and the vitamin C thing comes to mind. There's no such thing as
         | an average person!
         | 
         | I guess we'll see what the quantum experts have to say about
         | this in the weeks to come =)
        
         | leptons wrote:
         | I know Hartmut Neven personally and professionally, and have
         | for decades. He's not anything like you claim he is. Attacking
         | him for wearing a wristband? That's an ad hominem attack, and
         | not worthy of my time to counter you on.
         | 
         | The fact is that "Burners" are everywhere, nothing about
         | Burning Man means someone is automatically a quack. Your
         | distrust seems misplaced and colored by your own personal
         | biases. The list of prominent people in tech that are also
         | "burners" would likely shock you. I doubt you've ever been to
         | Burning Man, but you're going to judge people who have? Maybe
         | you're just feeling a little bit too "square" and are
         | threatened by people who live differently than you do.
         | 
         | Yes, Hartmut has a style, yes, he enjoys his lifestyle, no,
         | he's not a quack. You don't have to believe me, and I don't
         | expect that you will, but I've talked at length with him about
         | his work, and about a great many other topics, and he is not as
         | you think he is.
         | 
         | Your comment here says far more about you than it says about
         | Hartmut Neven.
        
           | deanCommie wrote:
           | > Attacking him for wearing a wristband? That's an ad hominem
           | attack, and not worthy of my time to counter you on.
           | 
           | I picked my words very carefully and I would appreciate if
           | you responded to what I said, not what you think I implied.
           | 
           | I specifically called out - I'm having feelings of bias. That
           | in a field full of quack science and overpromises and
           | underdelivery, I am extraordinarily suspicious of anyone who
           | I feel might be associated with a shall we say "less than
           | rigorous relationship with scientific accuracy". This
           | person's aesthetic reminds me of this.
           | 
           | > The fact is that "Burners" are everywhere, nothing about
           | Burning Man means someone is automatically a quack. Your
           | distrust seems misplaced and colored by your own personal
           | biases. The list of prominent people in tech that are also
           | "burners" would likely shock you. I doubt you've ever been to
           | Burning Man, but you're going to judge people who have? Maybe
           | you're just feeling a little bit too "square" and are
           | threatened by people who live differently than you do.
           | 
           | You couldn't be more wrong. I'm a repeat Burner throughout
           | the 2000's (though it's been a decade), and I've been to a
           | dozen regional Burner events. I know many Burners both in the
           | tech industry and outside of it.
           | 
           | So I actually speak with some experience. I know wonderful
           | people who are purely artists and are not
           | scientifically/technologically inclined - and they're great.
           | I also know deep technologists for whom Burning man is purely
           | an aesthetic preference - a costume not an outfit. Something
           | to pretend to be for a little while but that otherwise has no
           | bearing on their outside life.
           | 
           | And I unfortunately know those whose brainrot ends up
           | intertwining. Crypto evangelists who find healing crystals
           | just as groundbreaking as the blockchain. It's this latter
           | category that I am the most suspicious of, and what I worry
           | when I see a person presented as an authoritative leader in
           | the Quantum Computing domain demonstrate in their external
           | presentation.
           | 
           | I led with an acknowledgement that I am judging a book by
           | it's cover, which one ought to never do. But I think it is
           | worth pointing out because respectability in a cutting edge
           | field is important, lest you end up achieving technological
           | breakthroughs that don't actually change society at all (as
           | already happened with Google Glass).
           | 
           | > You don't have to believe me, and I don't expect that you
           | will,
           | 
           | Why would you expect that I wouldn't?
           | 
           | > but I've talked at length with him about his work, and
           | about a great many other topics, and he is not as you think
           | he is.
           | 
           | That's fantastic to hear! You have direct evidence
           | contradicting the assumptions generated by my first
           | impression. This is all that matters, and all you had to say.
        
         | wasabi991011 wrote:
         | > I immediately start to approach the author of this with
         | distrust:
         | 
         | > * He's writing about multiverses
         | 
         | > * He's claiming a quantum performance for something that
         | would take a classical computer septillions of years.
         | 
         | > I'm a layman in this domain
         | 
         | I think your skepticism is well-founded. But as you learn more
         | about the field, you learn what parts are marketing/hype
         | bullshit, and what parts are not, and how to translate from the
         | bullshit to the underlying facts.
         | 
         | IMO:
         | 
         | > He's writing about multiverses
         | 
         | The author's pet theory, no relevance to the actual science
         | being done.
         | 
         | * He's claiming a quantum performance for something that would
         | take a classical computer septillions of years.
         | 
         | The classical computer is running a very naive algorithm,
         | basically brute-force. It is very easy to write a classical
         | algorithm which is very slow. But still, in the field, it takes
         | new state-of-the-art classical algorithms run on medium size
         | clusters to get results that are on-par with recent quantum
         | computers. Not even much better, just on-par.
         | 
         | > Or is this just how technology breakthroughs start (after all
         | the Transformer paper wasn't)
         | 
         | You could say that. It's not truly a breakthrough, but it is
         | one more medium-size step in a rapidly advancing field.
        
         | hello_computer wrote:
         | The hall of great scientists is packed with holders of strange
         | beliefs. Half of Newton's writings were on religious
         | speculation, alchemy, and the occult. One of Einstein's very
         | favorite books was Blavatsky's " _Isis Unveiled_ ". Just about
         | every key person in early QM was deep into the Vedas. Kary
         | Mullis was an AIDS denialist, and questioned the utility of his
         | own test as a virus detector. If you really think about it, you
         | will see that this phenomenon arises more from necessity than
         | coincidence.
        
         | Aeium wrote:
         | The quantum performance thing is real, but that the random
         | circuit sampling problem they are tabling as the benchmark here
         | is for a quantum circuit.
         | 
         | So really what is being claimed is that classical computers
         | can't easily simulate quantum ones. But is that really
         | surprising?
         | 
         | What would be surprising would be that kind of speedup vs
         | classical on some kind of general optimization algorithm. I
         | don't think that is what they are claiming though, even if it
         | does kind of seem like it's being presented that way.
        
       | pandemic_region wrote:
       | > Willow performed a standard benchmark computation in under five
       | minutes that would take one of today's fastest supercomputers 10
       | septillion years -- a number that vastly exceeds the age of the
       | Universe.
       | 
       | What computation would that be?
       | 
       | Also, what is the relationship, if any, between quantum computing
       | and AI? Are these technologies complementary?
        
         | ra7 wrote:
         | It's in the article. Random circuit sampling benchmark:
         | https://research.google/blog/validating-random-circuit-sampl...
        
           | crote wrote:
           | Is it really fair to call that "computation"? I am
           | _definitely_ not an expert, but it seems they are just doing
           | a meaningless operation which happens to be trivial on a
           | quantum computer but near-impossible to simulate on a
           | classical computer.
           | 
           | To me that sounds a bit like saying my "sand computer"
           | (hourglass) is way faster than a classical computer, because
           | it'd take a classical computer trillions of years to
           | _exactly_ simulate the final position of every individual
           | grain of sand.
           | 
           | Sure, it proves that your quantum computer is actually a
           | _genuine_ quantum computer, but it 's not going to be topping
           | the LINPACK charts or factoring large semiprimes any time
           | soon, is it?
        
             | becquerel wrote:
             | As they say explicitly in the article, this is like
             | criticizing the first rocket to reach the edge of space for
             | not getting anywhere useful.
        
             | andrewla wrote:
             | Yes, this is exactly what it is doing [1]. The area of
             | research is Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum, and has
             | arisen specifically to prove that quantum supremacy is
             | possible in practice. It is currently the focus of pretty
             | much all quantum computing research because attempts to
             | produce a generalized quantum computer have all failed
             | miserably. Existing practical quantum computers (like
             | DWave) perform various annealing tasks but have basically
             | proven to be inferior to probablistic algorithms computing
             | the same task.
             | 
             | To date all attempt to produce valid claims of quantum
             | supremacy via this channel have failed on closer
             | inspection, and there is no reason to assume otherwise in
             | this case until researchers have had time to look at the
             | paper. There's a number of skeptics in the quantum
             | computing field that believe that this is simply not
             | possible.
             | 
             | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42369463
        
               | hermitcrab wrote:
               | Are DWave still in the running? They used my
               | PerfectTablePlan table seating software back in 2007 as
               | the front end to demonstrate solving a combinatorial
               | seating problem: https://www.perfecttableplan.com/newslet
               | ters/newsletter10_we...
        
         | 0xB31B1B wrote:
         | "Also, what is the relationship, if any, between quantum
         | computing and AI? Are these technologies complementary?"
         | 
         | AI is limited in part by the computation available at training
         | and runtime. If your computer is 10^X times faster, then your
         | model is also "better". Thats why we have giant warehouses full
         | of H100 chips pulling down a few megawatts from the grid right
         | now. Quantum computing could theoretically allow your phone to
         | do that.
        
           | spencerflem wrote:
           | A quantum computer is not just a 10^X faster normal computer.
           | 
           | Are there AI algorithms that would benefit from quantum?
        
           | kridsdale1 wrote:
           | Makes sense. My brain is able to do that work on milliwatts.
        
             | pdabbadabba wrote:
             | Actually about 20 W -- if you ignore the 80 W used by the
             | rest of the body (which seems debatable). And clearly far
             | more than this was required to 'train' the human brain to
             | the level of intelligence we have today.[1] But this still
             | probably doesn't take away from your point. The human brain
             | seems to be many orders of magnitude more efficient than
             | our most advanced AI technology.
             | 
             | Though the more I think about this, the more I wonder how
             | they really would compare if you made a strictly apples-to-
             | apples comparison.
             | 
             | [1]
             | https://psychology.stackexchange.com/questions/12385/how-
             | muc...
        
         | wasabi991011 wrote:
         | > Also, what is the relationship, if any, between quantum
         | computing and AI? Are these technologies complementary?
         | 
         | Ongoing research.
         | 
         | The main idea of quantum machine learning is that qubits make
         | an exponentially high-dimensional space with linear resources,
         | so can store and compute a lot of data easily.
         | 
         | However, getting the data in and results out of the quantum
         | computer is tricky, and if you need many iterations in your
         | optimization, that may destroy any advantage you have from
         | using quantum computers.
        
         | oldgradstudent wrote:
         | > Also, what is the relationship, if any, between quantum
         | computing and AI? Are these technologies complementary?
         | 
         | AI is quite good in producing the meaningless drivel needed for
         | quantum computing related press releases.
        
       | sys32768 wrote:
       | In other words, get off the cloud so nobody has your encrypted
       | data which they will be able to crack in a few minutes five or
       | ten years from now?
        
         | noident wrote:
         | It depends on the algorithm you use to encrypt your data.
         | 
         | Only asymmetric cryptography is threatened. There is no
         | realistic threat to symmetric encryption like AES.
         | 
         | If you are encrypting your cloud data with ed25519 or RSA, then
         | yes, a quantum computer could theoretically someday crack them.
        
       | codeulike wrote:
       | They opened the API for it and I'm sending requests but the
       | response always comes back 300ms before I send the request, is
       | there a way of handling that with try{} predestined{} blocks? Or
       | do I need to use the Bootstrap Paradox library?
        
         | timcobb wrote:
         | What does Gemini say?
        
           | KTibow wrote:
           | It responds with 4500 characters:
           | https://hst.sh/olahososos.md
        
         | wk_end wrote:
         | Finally, INTERCAL's COME FROM statement has a practical use.
        
         | handfuloflight wrote:
         | Have you tried using the Schrodinger Exception Handler? It
         | catches errors both before and after they occur simultaneously,
         | until you observe the stack trace.
        
         | nobrains wrote:
         | What happens when you don't send the request after receiving
         | the response? Please try and report back.
        
           | r3trohack3r wrote:
           | You unlock the "You've met a terrible fate." achievement [1]
           | 
           | [1] https://outerwilds.fandom.com/wiki/Achievements
        
           | ukuina wrote:
           | Please report back and try.*
        
         | cloudking wrote:
         | The answer is yes and no, simultaneously
        
         | yu3zhou4 wrote:
         | Did you try staring on your IP packets while sending the
         | requests?
        
         | Nifty3929 wrote:
         | Try using inverse promises. You get back the result you wanted,
         | but if you don't then send the request the response is useless.
         | 
         | It's a bit like Jeopardy, really.
        
         | dtquad wrote:
         | >They opened the API for it and I'm sending requests but the
         | response always comes back 300ms before I send the request
         | 
         | For a brief moment I thought this was some quantum-magical side
         | effect you were describing and not some API error.
        
       | kernal wrote:
       | >Willow's performance on this benchmark is astonishing: It
       | performed a computation in under five minutes that would take one
       | of today's fastest supercomputers 1025 or 10 septillion years. If
       | you want to write it out, it's 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
       | years. This mind-boggling number exceeds known timescales in
       | physics and vastly exceeds the age of the universe. It lends
       | credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs in many
       | parallel universes, in line with the idea that we live in a
       | multiverse, a prediction first made by David Deutsch.
       | 
       | A much simpler explanation is that your benchmark is severely
       | flawed.
        
         | wasabi991011 wrote:
         | "Severely flawed" is a matter of interpretation, and I don't
         | want to argue for or against.
         | 
         | But to put into context, these numbers are likely accurate, but
         | represent the time it would take for a very naive classical
         | algorithm (possibly brute-force, I am unsure).
         | 
         | For example, the previous result claimed it would take Summit
         | 10,000 years to do the same calculation as the Sycamore quantum
         | chip. However, other researchers were able to reproduce results
         | classically using tensor-network-based methods in 14.5 days
         | using a "relatively small cluster". [1]
         | 
         | [1] G. Kalachev, P. Panteleev, P. Zhou, and M.-H. Yung,
         | "Classical sampling of random quantum circuits with bounded
         | fidelity," arXiv.org, https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.15083
         | (accessed Dec. 9, 2024).
        
       | xnx wrote:
       | Is anyone else even close to Google in this space? (e.g. on the
       | "System Metrics" the blog defines)
        
         | wasabi991011 wrote:
         | I would expect IBM, but I can't find any information on their
         | system metrics based on a quick google search.
         | 
         | Would love if someone could weight in.
        
         | lanthissa wrote:
         | not publicly
        
         | taf2 wrote:
         | IonQ - they are powering AWS solution here:
         | https://aws.amazon.com/braket/quantum-computers/ionq/
         | 
         | Not sure if they are close in terms of specs but looks like
         | they are a viable solution and seeing an increase in
         | utilization over the last year... Seems both are pretty
         | interesting to keep an eye on.
        
         | EvgeniyZh wrote:
         | Main players IMHO are IBM and Quantinuum, the latter employing
         | different platform (ions). Neither could perform the same
         | experiment I think, but have their own advantages. QuEra also
         | looks good but are not as mature yet imho.
        
       | fguerraz wrote:
       | Am I oversimplifying in thinking that they've demonstrated that
       | their quantum computer is better than at simulating a quantum
       | system than a classical computer?
       | 
       | In which case, should I be impressed? I mean sure, it sounds like
       | you've implemented a quantum VM.
        
         | TachyonicBytes wrote:
         | Simulating a quantum system is a hard challenge and it's
         | actually how Feynman proposed the quantum computing paradigm in
         | the first place. It's basically the original motive.
        
           | freetonik wrote:
           | Exactly.
           | 
           | I've seen lots of people dismissing this as if it isn't
           | impressive or important. I've watched one video where the
           | author said in a deprecating manner "quantum computers are
           | good for just two things: generating random numbers and
           | simulating quantum systems".
           | 
           | It's like saying "the thing is good for just two things:
           | making funny noises and producing infinite energy".
           | 
           | (Also, generating random numbers is pretty useful, but I
           | digress)
        
       | slater wrote:
       | I bet Vimeo videos will still chug on it
        
       | TachyonicBytes wrote:
       | Link to the actual article:
       | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08449-y
        
         | qnleigh wrote:
         | and the arXiv preprint, which isn't paywalled
         | https://arxiv.org/html/2408.13687v1
        
       | zelon88 wrote:
       | > It lends credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs
       | in many parallel universes, in line with the idea that we live in
       | a multiverse, a prediction first made by David Deutsch.
       | 
       | Can someone explain to me how he made the jump from "we achieved
       | a meaninful threshold in quantum computing performance" to "The
       | multiverse is probably real."
        
         | dekhn wrote:
         | The explanation is that Hartmut Neven has a bunch of sci-fi
         | beliefs and somehow has managed to hold onto his job and even
         | get to write parts of press releases.
        
       | radioactivist wrote:
       | Some of these results have been on the arxiv for a few months
       | (https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.13687) -- are there any details on
       | new stuff besides this blog post? I can't find anything on the
       | random circuit sampling in the preprint (or its early access
       | published version).
        
         | qnleigh wrote:
         | The peer-reviewed version at Nature has more technical details
         | about the processor itself.
        
       | ryandvm wrote:
       | Imagine your civilization develops quantum computing technology
       | and it's for... advertising.
       | 
       | "What is their mission? Cure cancer? Eliminate poverty? Explore
       | the universe? No, their goal: to sell another fucking Nissan."
       | --Scott Galloway
        
         | mperham wrote:
         | That's how you monetize attention, digital consumption. If you
         | aren't paying for it, you are the product being sold.
        
           | NoOn3 wrote:
           | In modern world, sometimes, even if you pay for it, it
           | doesn't always give guarantees... :(
        
       | softwaredoug wrote:
       | With this plus the weather model announcement. I'm curious what
       | people think about the meta question on why corporate labs like
       | Google DeepMind etc seem to make more progress on big problems
       | than academia?
       | 
       | There are a lot of critiques about academia. In particular that
       | it's so grant obsessed you have to stay focused on your next
       | grant all the time. This environment doesnt seem to reward
       | solving big problems but paper production to prove the last grant
       | did something. Yet ostensibly we fund fundamental public research
       | precisely for fundamental changes. The reality seems to be the
       | traditional funding model create incremental progress within
       | existing paradigms.
        
         | LeftHandPath wrote:
         | I did quantum computing research in university. We did
         | meaningful work and published meaningful research.
         | 
         | Around 50% of our time was spent working in Overleaf making
         | small improvements to old projects so that we could submit to
         | some new journal or call-for-papers. We were always doing peer
         | review or getting peer reviewed. We were working with a lot of
         | 3rd-party tools (e.g. FPGAs, IBM Q, etc). And our team was
         | constantly churning due to people getting their degrees and
         | leaving, people getting too busy with coursework, and people
         | deciding they just weren't interested anymore.
         | 
         | Compare that to the corporate labs: They have a fully
         | proprietary ecosystem. The people who developed that ecosystem
         | are often the ones doing research on/with it. They aren't
         | taking time off of their ideas to handle peer-review processes.
         | They aren't taking time off to handle unrelated coursework.
         | Their researchers don't graduate and start looking for
         | professor positions at other universities.
         | 
         | It's not surprising in the slightest that the corporate labs do
         | better. They're more focused and better suited for long-term
         | research.
        
           | softwaredoug wrote:
           | I wonder what makes research different than product
           | development at a company?
           | 
           | Because in product development, there can be short-sighted
           | industry decisions based on quarterly returns. I've also seen
           | a constant need to justify outcomes based on KPIs etc, and
           | constantly justifying your work, etc.
        
             | LeftHandPath wrote:
             | Research _is_ product development. Successful companies
             | treat it with respect.
             | 
             | > Because in product development, there can be short-
             | sighted industry decisions based on quarterly returns. I've
             | also seen a constant need to justify outcomes based on KPIs
             | etc, and constantly justifying your work, etc.
             | 
             | I have seen this as well. It's extremely common (especially
             | among publicly-owned companies) and frustrating. But it's
             | not ubiquitous. Consider LM's Skunkworks or Apple's quiet
             | development of the iPhone, and compare it to companies that
             | finish a product and then focus on cutting costs / nickel-
             | and-diming their customers.
        
         | anonymousDan wrote:
         | Where exactly do you think the idea for a quantum computer came
         | from in the first place?
        
       | andrewla wrote:
       | This is yet another attempt to posit NISQ results (Noisy
       | Intermediate Scale Quantum) as demonstrations of quantum
       | supremacy. This does not allow us to do useful computational
       | work; it's just making the claim that a bathtub full of water can
       | do fluid dynamic simulations faster than a computer with a
       | bathtub-full-of-water-number-of-cores can do the same
       | computation.
       | 
       | If history is any guide we'll soon see that there are problems
       | with the fidelity (the system they use to verify that the results
       | are "correct") or problems with the difficulty of the underlying
       | problem, as happened with Google's previous attempt to
       | demonstrate quantum supremacy [1].
       | 
       | [1] https://gilkalai.wordpress.com/2024/12/09/the-case-
       | against-g... -- note that although coincidentally published the
       | same day as this announcement, this is talking about Google's
       | previous results, not Willow.
        
       | cryptozeus wrote:
       | QTUM
        
         | cloudking wrote:
         | Contains MSTR and not GOOG...
        
           | cryptozeus wrote:
           | Point is to get in before goog gets in
        
       | djoldman wrote:
       | I wonder if anyone else will be forced to wait on
       | https://scottaaronson.blog/ to tell us if this is significant.
        
         | gloriousduke wrote:
         | I was about to add a similar comment. Definitely interested to
         | read his evaluation and whether there is more hype than
         | substance here, though I'm guessing it may take some time.
        
         | EvgeniyZh wrote:
         | He told when the preprint was published
         | 
         | https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8310
        
         | qnleigh wrote:
         | He's already blogged about it a bit here
         | 
         | https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8310#comments
         | 
         | and here
         | 
         | https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8329
         | 
         | though I bet he will have more to say now that the paper is
         | officially out.
        
       | bn-l wrote:
       | This is weird. I got this pop up halfway through reading:
       | 
       | > After reading this article, how has your perception of Google
       | changed? Gotten better Gotten worse Stayed the same
        
       | beyondCritics wrote:
       | >It lends credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs
       | in many parallel universes, in line with the idea that we live in
       | a multiverse, a prediction first made by David Deutsch.
       | 
       | Makes sense, or doesn't it? What's your take on the multiverse
       | theory?
        
       | dom96 wrote:
       | Can anyone comment on how this chip is built? What does the
       | hardware look like?
        
       | stan_kirdey wrote:
       | Is anyone fine-tuning llama to write Q#? I feel LLMs can be a
       | helpful tool in learning how to code quantum systems.
        
       | dtquad wrote:
       | Do Americans still want to breakup the big US tech companies like
       | Google? With proper regulation it feels like their positive
       | externalities, like this, is good for humanity.
        
         | 0_____0 wrote:
         | "Proper regulation" may involve breaking companies into pieces
         | such that they cannot dominate industries and deprive the
         | public the option of choosing a different provider for the
         | services they provide. Does an Alphabet subsidiary working on
         | quantum computer research require 90% of search traffic to go
         | through Google? Or for Android handsets to send a really
         | phenomenal amount of telemetry back to the mothership with no
         | real recourse for the average user?
        
         | skort wrote:
         | The key words here are "proper regulation". In an era where
         | industries have captured governmental bodies, there will likely
         | be no such regulation, and these tech companies will continue
         | to siphon up resources and funnel them to a handful at the top.
         | 
         | A quote from the article is especially ludicrous: > to benefit
         | society by advancing scientific discovery, developing helpful
         | applications, and tackling some of society's greatest
         | challenges
         | 
         | You don't need a quantum computer to do this. We can solve
         | housing and food scarcity today, arguably our greatest
         | challenges. Big tech has been claiming that it's going to solve
         | all of our problems for decades now and it has yet to put up.
         | 
         | If you want this type of technology to be made and do actual
         | good, we need publicly funded research institutions. Tech won't
         | save us.
        
       | correlator wrote:
       | I met julian touring UCSB as perspective grad students. We sat
       | together at dinner and he was really smart, kind, and outgoing.
       | Great to see him presenting this work!
        
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