[HN Gopher] Tokyo is set to introduce a four-day workweek for go...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Tokyo is set to introduce a four-day workweek for government
       employees
        
       Author : amichail
       Score  : 341 points
       Date   : 2024-12-06 17:54 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.cnn.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.cnn.com)
        
       | 7thaccount wrote:
       | That sounds....huge. I know many working couples where one would
       | probably take that in a heartbeat. You lose some money, but gain
       | more family time and sanity. Having Friday to finish chores and
       | being able to enjoy the weekend unstressed is huge, not to
       | mention clocking out early each day to be able to pick up your
       | kid and not have to get back to work or whatever.
        
         | Heliosmaster wrote:
         | Yep, completely agree. After having our kid both me and my wife
         | work 80% so we have one extra day at home. Huge.
        
         | jajko wrote:
         | Not sure about rest of the world, but here in Switzerland
         | mothers often take Wednesdays off - first years of school its
         | not on Wednesdays, and then it starts with just mornings. Wife
         | has it and she repeatedly claimed that she will never go back
         | to 5 days workweek.
         | 
         | Most employers, be it private or state ones have 0 issues with
         | this setup. 20% less, maybe 15% net income less ain't that huge
         | of a deal - if it is, something ain't right in your finances
         | anyway. What is gained is very well worth it, time with parents
         | is crucial in many ways for small kids and if that window is
         | missed you can't make it up later. Catching up with stuff like
         | bureaucracy which is unavailable during weekends is possible
         | only during such time.
         | 
         | Its true that having kids fundamentally changed my view on
         | wealth and how much should I pursue higher paychecks, life is
         | darn short anyway and double that with kids. I am switching to
         | 90% contract from 1.1.2025 - working usual 5 days a week but
         | having altogether 48.5 MDs of paid vacation (90% of 25MDs I had
         | on 100% + 0.5 MD per each week in year, our HR recipe). It
         | feels like being a teacher but on corporate paycheck (and work
         | intensity). Even with 4 mortgages (for 2 properties) and no
         | family to help financially if we hit hardships, this was a
         | nobrainer. Other aspect would be retiring in 60 (max 61), but
         | that's too far down the line to care much about now.
         | 
         | I am looking very much into spending that time on family and
         | myself. One needs to be happy or at least content with its own
         | life to make others happy too, and thats not achievable easily
         | in rat races. For such benefits alone I don't care about higher
         | paychecks, money only can get you so far in life.
        
         | chachacharge wrote:
         | I kind of doubt this will be adopted practically in Japan. The
         | old people get time off and leave work early in Japan by
         | privilege and the young break themselves and any rule they need
         | to permit it. The young would even lie about taking time off to
         | make the boss look good, even taking less pay to sell the lie.
         | Who can have kids when you already have to change everyone's
         | diaper.
        
           | encoderer wrote:
           | Fascinating. Is the loyalty reciprocated?
        
             | wubrr wrote:
             | If the subordinates have to lie about taking time off, and
             | intentionally accept lower pay for the benefit of their
             | superiors - then no, it's definitely not reciprocated. I'd
             | argue the subordinates are straight up being abused in this
             | case.
        
               | l33tbro wrote:
               | I'm not saying you are wrong here, but I think it is
               | important to ground all of these old:young dynamics in
               | culture. 'Subordinate', to me, is a very western lens and
               | looks past the crucial point that the Japanese view power
               | structures with far more optimism than we do.
               | 
               | Japan clearly has its own problems, but honour and duty
               | play a significant part in their culture and, admirably,
               | contributes to the creation of a high-trust society.
        
               | coliveira wrote:
               | Arguably, the Japanese view a society that takes care of
               | the elderly with respect as a benefit to themselves. In
               | the other hand, it is a characteristic of Western society
               | to see every moment as an opportunity to make immediate
               | profits, even at the expense of their own future.
        
               | dukeyukey wrote:
               | In this case, it's taking care of the elderly to the huge
               | detriment of the young. And when you do that, you kinda
               | lose the future.
        
               | jefbyokyie wrote:
               | Exactly. What sane grandparent would want to live at the
               | cost of cannibalizing their grandchildren? What the
               | sandwich generation received as kids, they need to pay
               | that _forward_ , not _back_.
               | 
               | For one, I don't want a long life. I want to live as long
               | as I'm not a burden. Don't want to burn down in my final
               | years all that I will have built up for my kids and their
               | kids.
               | 
               | Now, they say that anime is not real life in Japan, and
               | it's true; however it absolutely reflects (I dare say:
               | _indoctrinates_ viewers with) cultural elements of Japan.
               | And this  "fuck up your kids' lives so you can take care
               | of your parents" is so characteristic. A good example (of
               | this terrible phenomenon) is in Lovely Complex, where
               | Nobu-chan effectively needs to abandon her sweetheart
               | Nakao-kun, just so she can care for her grandmother,
               | who's about to move to Hokkaido. The most heart-wrenching
               | part is where Nakao and Nobu's grandma sit at the dining
               | table, and Nakao is guilt-tripped into actively
               | encouraging Nobu's grandma to travel to Hokkaido _and_ to
               | rob him of his beloved Nobu. Fuck all that, seriously.
        
               | wkat4242 wrote:
               | Hmm I'm sure I would view that kind of social pressure as
               | a straightjacket and I would have a very fringey and
               | mediocre life in such a society.
               | 
               | I'm just someone who is different and western
               | civilization applauds individualism to some extent
               | (except highly religious communities, army, etc).
               | 
               | For people like me such societies are pretty cruel.
        
               | liontwist wrote:
               | Marxism is one of many views to bring to the table.
        
               | metacritic12 wrote:
               | I don't think reciprocation can be analyzed in a dynamic
               | setting like that.
               | 
               | Another version of this is, what happens if the younger
               | generation doesn't take the deal -- do they get fired?
               | Keeping them on is a form of reciprocation, even if
               | bleak.
               | 
               | Likewise, is there an implicit deal where when the young
               | get old, they get to work less? If so, it is eventually
               | reciprocated.
               | 
               | I do think it is not reciprocated instantaneously.
        
               | jefbyokyie wrote:
               | What you describe as reciprocation is actually
               | transgenerational exploitation. Be forcefully taken-from
               | when you are young, and then forcefully take (from the
               | young) when you are old.
               | 
               | It should be unidirectional giving. Give to your
               | children, and save for yourself. Retire to an assisted
               | living facility, don't become a burden. Hope to die as
               | soon as you become a burden. If you _decide_ to die,
               | because you are done living, I firmly believe that you
               | can die.
        
             | kortilla wrote:
             | It's basically the same model as social security is
             | supposed to be. It's reciprocated societally by you putting
             | in lots when you're young and then you get the benefits
             | when you're old.
        
               | maest wrote:
               | That's tremendously reductionistic.
        
           | feyman_r wrote:
           | Interestingly, a big company actually did an experiment in
           | Japan itself:
           | https://www.npr.org/2019/11/04/776163853/microsoft-japan-
           | say...
        
         | cavisne wrote:
         | The issue is in corporate jobs (including tech) Friday is a
         | very relaxed day. If you are working a shorter week than
         | everyone else, you end up doing the same amount of work in less
         | time for less money.
        
           | Spooky23 wrote:
           | I did this a few years ago at a company I was a partner in.
           | We had a busy season where folks did overtime. The
           | expectation for salaried employees was a 4-day, 35 hour week,
           | but during that 3-4 week period, it may surge more.
           | 
           | 35 hour weeks used to be pretty common in a lot of businesses
           | before the overtime rules were watered down.
        
         | colechristensen wrote:
         | A long time ago when I was an intern at a defense contractor my
         | boss was a woman who had worked her whole career 30 hours a
         | week and was very happy about it, kept it up even when her kids
         | were graduating high school.
         | 
         | I also enjoyed the 9/80 schedule there, nominally 9 hour days
         | with a little flexibility with every other Friday off for
         | everyone.
        
         | blendo wrote:
         | Prior to retirement, I cut back to 32 hrs/week at 80% pay
         | (well, closer to 85% because I kept my full health). I
         | backfilled the pay cut by beginning a small 401k withdrawl.
         | 
         | All of a sudden, every Thursday evening felt like the start of
         | vacation!
        
         | EasyMark wrote:
         | I worked out a 9hr/4 days week with my current company, I get
         | more work done in those 36 hours than I did in the 40 hours
         | before because I'm more relaxed after a long weekend and
         | considerably happier
        
       | MBCook wrote:
       | I wish these stories would say if the hours are changing or not.
       | 
       | 32 hours, 4 days a week seems better to me. But if all you do is
       | take 40 hours and make it 10 hour days I'm not that much happier.
        
         | alienreborn wrote:
         | I would still take 40 hrs in 4 days vs 5 days. Full extra day
         | is a blessing.
        
         | Filligree wrote:
         | It's Japan, so they alread have 10 if not 12 hour days, a lot
         | of which isn't work in any sense. Cutting day out of the week
         | also means removing the near-obligatory after-work
         | 'socialising'.
        
         | FigurativeVoid wrote:
         | I have had friends and family that work 4x10s or even 3x12s and
         | they all vastly prefer the trade-off of more hours per work day
         | for fewer days.
        
           | MBCook wrote:
           | I'd still likely take the option, I just think it's
           | unnecessary. Productivity is ridiculously up since the 8 hour
           | day was established, even since just two decades ago.
           | 
           | Tasks expand to take up the available time, even if
           | usefulness doesn't.
           | 
           | I suspect you'd see little loss in cutting down to
           | 32/hr/week, and I suspect it would be more than made up for
           | by the gains of giving people that extra day. So it may be a
           | net positive.
           | 
           | I guess my main concern is that a lot of companies (not
           | speaking about Japan here, just the US) might decide to use
           | four days a week as a way to make people crunch four days
           | thinking that having three days off would make up for that.
           | And things wouldn't really be any better.
        
             | bsimpson wrote:
             | That's the unfortunate bit about salaries.
             | 
             | If you took a 4x per week job, you'd usually get a 20% pay
             | reduction; however, many jobs could be compressed to 4 days
             | without any loss in productivity.
        
           | rqtwteye wrote:
           | I did 4x10 and I found it horrible. During the four days, I
           | didn't get to do anything other than work and commute. And
           | the stupid thing was that my output (and that of my coworkers
           | as far as I could tell) was not really higher with 10 hours
           | than with 8 hours. Three day weekends are nice though.
        
           | notatoad wrote:
           | i've worked 10s before, and it's alternately amazing and
           | terrible. at an office job, answering emails and going to
           | meetings, 10hrs is completely beyond my tolerance level.
           | 
           | but if you've got a project, and you can just put your head
           | down and work, then 10s are really nice.
        
             | FigurativeVoid wrote:
             | I agree. It's nice if you have something you can get into
             | flow on.
             | 
             | The biggest issue with 10s is commute time. If you work 10s
             | with an hour+ commute, that's just awful.
        
               | elijaht wrote:
               | Wouldn't 10's be better for a longer commute? Need to do
               | it 4 vs 5 days?
        
               | notatoad wrote:
               | less overall commute time, yeah, but it means your day
               | might be literally nothing but work and sleep.
               | 
               | probably not long-term sustainable.
        
         | anyfoo wrote:
         | I disagree, hard.
        
         | PittleyDunkin wrote:
         | > But if all you do is take 40 hours and make it 10 hour days
         | I'm not that much happier
         | 
         | One fewer day of needing to context-switch would be a major
         | life improvement.
        
         | taeric wrote:
         | From everyone I have ever known that was able to do the fewer
         | days, even with same hours, it is still a game changer.
        
         | siavosh wrote:
         | Curious how this plays out and comments from anyone who works
         | there now. From what I've read about Japanese work culture,
         | there are many perks/benefits offered but most do not take it
         | cause it's considered selfish etc.
        
         | cableshaft wrote:
         | One year a company did mandatory 'half-day Fridays' during the
         | summer where the company closed after a half day on Friday.
         | 
         | But in order to do that we had to work 9 hour days Monday -
         | Thursday.
         | 
         | That extra hour those four days felt torturous, so it meant
         | four days of feeling awful just so I could leave a few hours
         | early on a day in which most people (and myself) already
         | weren't working too hard anyway.
         | 
         | I hated it.
         | 
         | This was at a very low output insurance company, btw, so there
         | often wasn't huge pressure to get things done quickly (new
         | software releases were once a quarter, and IT would complain
         | that two months lead time wasn't enough time to provision a
         | single new server that was a clone of an existing server, as an
         | example of how slow things moved), and the days dragged on way
         | long.
         | 
         | I worked more high pressure startups before where I was often
         | there for 9 or more hours by necessity to meet deadlines that
         | didn't feel so bad.
        
           | Aurornis wrote:
           | I had a job that offered your choice of 4x10 or 5x8.
           | 
           | Many people took the 4x10 but then discovered they couldn't
           | handle 10 hour days every day. Like you said, the last 1-2
           | hours were so unproductive they might as well have been not
           | working.
           | 
           | So some people didn't even try to work those last 2 hours.
           | They'd sit at their desks and watch things or play games,
           | pretending to work when anyone came in. Kind of ruined it for
           | everyone.
        
         | reverendsteveii wrote:
         | not that much happier, no, but it's non-zero. esp with commute
         | time, arranging lunch outside the home, parking or public
         | transportation costs, childcare costs and all sorts of other
         | little expenses that just vanish when you can stay home. Plus a
         | 4x10 schedule doesn't result in a pay cut the way going from
         | 5x8 to 4x8 would. My mom worked 4x10 as a nurse my entire
         | childhood and loved the extra day.
        
         | nine_k wrote:
         | One of my previous jobs did just that: 10-hours days, 4 days a
         | week. First as an experiment for a month. They found our that
         | performance has grown across the board (engineering, sales,
         | support, etc) and then made it permanent; everybody rejoiced.
         | 
         | It was so much easier since then.
        
         | WillyWonkaJr wrote:
         | 100% -- We've been promised more free time due to AI. Probably
         | better to cash in now before this promise is rescinded.
        
           | MBCook wrote:
           | We were with mechanical automation too. And computers. And
           | every other advance.
           | 
           | Things improve, jobs take less time to do, so they give us
           | more. But it's the same number of hours so pay doesn't go up.
           | 
           | We all get screwed.
        
         | eikenberry wrote:
         | For many high focus, mentally taxing jobs going from 8 to 10
         | hour days won't make a difference as you're already done after
         | 4-6 hours anyways.
        
         | mrweasel wrote:
         | If they are just compress the 40 hours down to 4 days, then
         | this won't work. I don't know how it works in Japan, but how
         | the hell are you suppose to drop off and pick up kids with a 10
         | hour day, are schools and daycare even available 11-12 hours
         | per day? They'd be increasing the stress four days a week to an
         | ungodly level where families won't be able to function.
         | 
         | Most of these four-day workweeks are almost always bullshit,
         | because they insist on keeping the same hours. I hope that's
         | not the case here. Some companies have been experimenting with
         | just slashing a day a week completely and it always increase
         | productivity, retention and happiness.
        
       | FigurativeVoid wrote:
       | Clarifying point: this is the Tokyo local government not a
       | national policy.
        
         | teractiveodular wrote:
         | And even in Tokyo it only applies to metropolitan (roughly,
         | state) workers, not the ward (roughly, city) governments.
         | 
         | According to the data below, there's anywhere from 33k to 161k
         | metropolitan employees depending on where you draw the line.
         | 
         | https://www.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/tosei/hodohappyo/press/2024/01...
        
       | antisthenes wrote:
       | Too little too late. It may have an impact on the next
       | generation, in 10-20 years, if at all.
       | 
       | Also, for government employees only...
        
         | mikestew wrote:
         | The best time to plant a tree, and all...
         | 
         | Surely your argument isn't, "at this point, why bother to do
         | anything?"
        
           | antisthenes wrote:
           | > Surely your argument isn't, "at this point, why bother to
           | do anything?"
           | 
           | Surely if the effort exceeds the value of the outcome, then
           | it shouldn't be done?
        
             | kirubakaran wrote:
             | You haven't made an argument for that point at all
        
       | matt3210 wrote:
       | Better: work with families to alternate remote days so one parent
       | stays home with the kids and no need for childcare service
        
         | Heliosmaster wrote:
         | Do you really think that being remote is "staying home with the
         | kids"? You're physically in the same building as them, but
         | either you're not really working, or your kids don't actually
         | need an adult to be there because they are grown up anyway, so
         | no childcare is needed because they go to school.
        
         | writtenAnswer wrote:
         | Many jobs might be in-person especially in Japan
        
       | hunglee2 wrote:
       | its got to help, but the main thing Japan needs to do is de-
       | Toykoify the country. Urban density is probably the main causes
       | for decline in fertility, and Tokyo is the worst example globally
       | of runaway urban agglomeration.
        
         | tokioyoyo wrote:
         | People choose to live in Tokyo. They tried to give a buttloads
         | of incentives to move to the countryside, but few take them,
         | because... city life is just easier, more convenient and more
         | fun. But I still agree, it might affect it in a roundabout way.
         | 
         | When you live in a city, you have more opportunities to do
         | anything else other than having children. Also, Japan's
         | fertility rate isn't that much lower than Canadas. They just
         | got to the problem earlier than anyone else, so trying to
         | resolve it with any possible means. The biggest problem still
         | continues though -- there's no real reason or incentive to have
         | more than 2 children, other than "for the good of the society".
         | And women are less likely to sacrifice bare minimum of 6 years
         | of their lives to give birth to 3 children. Especially when
         | they can do... literally anything else.
         | 
         | Every educated girl friend of mine thinks exactly the same way
         | as well. Some had a child or two, but more than that it's just
         | a burden to the couple. I'm obviously simplifying things, and
         | once the third child is born, they're loved and etc. But it's
         | going to be a very hard sell for anyone.
        
         | Hilift wrote:
         | Depopulation resulted in an oversupply of nine million housing
         | vacancies outside the cities. Tokyo pays people a million yen
         | per child to move out of the city. It looks like the population
         | plateaued about 10 years ago and is trending down slightly.
         | https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/21671/toky...
        
       | pamelafox wrote:
       | Would schools and childcare providers also have 4-day workweeks?
       | I really appreciate that I have 5 days of childcare now, as I
       | find it exhausting to be 24/7 parenting two lil kids for two days
       | straight (the weekends). If the norm was 4-day workweeks, I would
       | pay my nanny overtime for Fridays. And then yes, maybe I'd get
       | chores done on Friday! Currently, chores just don't get done
       | ever. :D
        
         | pamelafox wrote:
         | " It separately announced another policy that will allow
         | parents with children in grades one to three in elementary
         | schools to trade off a bit of their salary for the option to
         | clock out early."
         | 
         | This is really nice, this was the option that I wanted for my
         | first kid. I would want this from the day they were born
         | though, not just grades 1-3. It helps with breastfeeding
         | scheduling.
        
         | sahila wrote:
         | What about the nanny wanting a 4 day work week, and what if
         | they have children of their own?
        
           | pamelafox wrote:
           | Indeed! My nanny does have kids of her own. So I would either
           | pay her overtime or I would find additional childcare for the
           | 5th day.
           | 
           | I'm just pointing this out because I hear "4 day workweek"
           | talked about a lot, but it's never clear to me if folks mean
           | that _everyone_ is getting those 4 days, including childcare
           | providers or teachers, and if that 's actually what folks
           | want. People in this thread talk about getting chores done,
           | but I'm not getting any chores done if I'm taking care of my
           | lil kids, I'm just getting an even messier house. :D
        
       | WillyWonkaJr wrote:
       | Japan is forecast to still have 50 million people in 2120. I
       | wouldn't call this a population crisis. With some rewilding it
       | could be quite pleasant! I suspect companies are afraid of not
       | growing, and governments are afraid to cut spending.
       | 
       | Source: https://www.jcer.or.jp/english/new-population-projection-
       | how...
        
         | jorblumesea wrote:
         | It's not about the amount of people but your population
         | pyramid. If your population halves, expect a lot of pain.
         | Especially for the elderly.
        
           | cableshaft wrote:
           | Especially for something like Social Security safety nets,
           | which relies on a larger younger population paying into it.
           | I'm not sure if Japan has an equivalent but I think they do.
        
             | WillyWonkaJr wrote:
             | This is a great argument for individual retirement accounts
             | rather than using the young to pay for the elderly. In the
             | United States, if everyone's social security tax were put
             | in an index fund, then everyone would be millionaires upon
             | retirement.
             | 
             | There are solutions other than pleading with people to have
             | more kids.
        
               | lenerdenator wrote:
               | The idea behind OASDI (Old Age, Survivors, and Disability
               | Insurance), more commonly known as Social Security, is
               | not that you retire a millionaire.
               | 
               | It's the US government saying "since we are a wealthy
               | nation, we will not let you spend your elderly years
               | destitute."
               | 
               | That's it. That's literally all it is. It was meant to
               | keep grandpa from being a burden on his family when he
               | was too old to work, which in the 1930s meant when you
               | were too old to do actual physical labor.
               | 
               | Since then the American public has seen it as a nice
               | little bonus they get for living past 65 and has started
               | stealing from younger generations in the form of
               | sovereign debt in order to maintain that instead of
               | treating it like the insurance policy it actually is.
        
               | supplied_demand wrote:
               | ==Since then the American public has seen it as a nice
               | little bonus they get for living past 65 and has started
               | stealing from younger generations in the form of
               | sovereign debt in order to maintain that instead of
               | treating it like the insurance policy it actually is.==
               | 
               | Social Security has it's own funding stream, a tax on
               | wages earned. It does not add to the deficit or increase
               | borrowing. If the funding dries up, the benefits are
               | reduced. This is the Social Security cliff we hear about
               | all the time.
        
               | lenerdenator wrote:
               | But there's only so many dollars you can pull from a wage
               | earned. A dollar pulled for OASDI is a dollar that can't
               | be pulled for anything else, and the person earning said
               | dollar will express dissatisfaction at the ballot box if
               | you try to make up for that by taking another dollar.
               | 
               | A retirement bonus (which is what OASDI is for millions
               | of retired Americans) costs more than a retirement
               | insurance plan, because one gets drawn from by everyone,
               | while the other can simply be denied if it isn't strictly
               | necessary for the person trying to collect the benefit.
               | 
               | A more expensive program requires more tax revenue to
               | administer, revenue that could be used on anything else.
               | Since we haven't had a real national discussion about
               | federal taxes in 30+ years in the US, we now take the
               | spending that would be funded with the tax revenues that
               | could be freed up by a less-expensive implementation of
               | retirement insurance - one that's treated as actual
               | insurance - and instead fund it with deficit spending.
        
               | cableshaft wrote:
               | I do already put money into a 401k. I will likely be a
               | millionaire before retirement, assuming no major
               | catastrophes and steady employment in jobs that pay at a
               | similar level (adjusted for inflation) before then.
               | 
               | I don't know if the same would be true for most people,
               | though (I make significantly more than the average
               | household income -- although probably less than a lot of
               | people here because I'm not making Silicon Valley money
               | -- and I don't have children).
               | 
               | It's an interesting idea worth exploring, but I'm not
               | sure if just switching social security money to
               | retirement accounts would be sufficient.
               | 
               | Administration and making sure people don't dig into them
               | before retirement would potentially be very expensive too
               | (although to be fair, I'm sure Social Security
               | administration costs are very high also).
               | 
               | Are you aware of any studies that analyze such a
               | solution? I imagine there must be something out there.
        
               | bee_rider wrote:
               | In the end, it is a matter of the amount of labor done by
               | the future generation to support the previous one, vs the
               | amount they do for themselves, right? I mean, we can
               | account for it however we want, but if every elderly
               | person was a millionaire, I guess we'd just have... very
               | high demand for the types of doctors that serve the
               | elderly.
               | 
               | The money doesn't take care of people, people paid by the
               | money do.
        
               | tshaddox wrote:
               | I think you also generally need an exponentially
               | increasing supply of working people in order for the
               | economy to grow exponentially.
        
               | orangecat wrote:
               | While I'm skeptical of the current state of Social
               | Security, this doesn't quite work. The dollars in your
               | account are useful only to the extent that there is stuff
               | being produced that you can buy with them. If your
               | population is mostly retired people, there's not going to
               | be much stuff and prices will be bid up rapidly. So
               | great, there's $10 million in your private account,
               | unfortunately your home nurse costs $2 million a year.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | Numbers in a database, whether they are in the millions
               | or billions or trillions, don't mean anything unless
               | there are sufficient things/services to buy.
        
             | jorblumesea wrote:
             | every social safety net in every country needs to be funded
             | somehow and a shrinking population means more debt to take
             | on or higher taxes on existing workers. nothing is free.
        
               | cableshaft wrote:
               | Yeah that was kind of my point. That's why it's better if
               | there are more younger people to contribute than elderly
               | people. If there's less, then the burder is greater on
               | individuals.
        
         | irrational wrote:
         | What percentage of the 50 million will be old people?
        
           | WillyWonkaJr wrote:
           | 40.4%
        
         | tdb7893 wrote:
         | The population more than halving in the next century causes
         | issues for normal people with expenses of supporting aging
         | population and maintaining infrastructure with an ever
         | dwindling percent of the population working age. There are some
         | benefits to lower populations but also significant practical
         | drawbacks to working class people.
        
         | nine_k wrote:
         | The problem is not the absolute number of people, but the ratio
         | of relatively younger people who work and produce something,
         | and the elderly who already are too frail and can only consume
         | (pensions, medical care, etc).
         | 
         | Japan has now fewer productive workers per elderly person than
         | most developed countries.
        
           | pesus wrote:
           | Even if the birth rate suddenly tripled, it wouldn't solve
           | that issue for at least a generation. There's going to have
           | to be other solutions, maybe in the form of
           | automation/robotics/etc in conjunction with societal/economic
           | changes. I wouldn't be surprised if the older population
           | resists necessary changes and exacerbates the problem,
           | though.
        
             | standardUser wrote:
             | A change to immigration policy could solve the issue within
             | years, but Japan seems like the least likely nation to
             | embrace that approach.
        
             | kortilla wrote:
             | Solving in a generation is fine if it starts now. GP is
             | talking about a projection 100 years out.
        
           | supplied_demand wrote:
           | ==Japan has now fewer productive workers per elderly person
           | than most developed countries.==
           | 
           | Maybe, over the long run, we could change the expectation
           | that elderly people can't be productive. Perhaps eliminating
           | 20% of the workweek will allow people to maintain careers
           | that are longer? The need to race towards retirement may
           | lessen if we ease the burden of our weekly work schedule.
        
             | TomK32 wrote:
             | I don't see many of my 40-ish age who live healthy enough
             | by exercising, going to work by bike or walking instead of
             | car, so they can still be active, let alone productive when
             | they enter retirement age.
        
               | supplied_demand wrote:
               | I'm not sure I follow your comment. It's possible that AI
               | will change the idea of who can be productive, just as
               | the internet has changed the idea of who can be
               | productive (people with limited mobility, for example).
        
             | beezlebroxxxxxx wrote:
             | A lot of elderly Japanese already keep working well into
             | old age. Some do it for health reasons (physical and
             | mental), financial reasons, or out of something like civic
             | pride/need to contribute to society. The problem is the
             | sector of jobs that elderly people can't do.
        
             | orangecat wrote:
             | It's just biology. People in their 70s and older are very
             | likely to have physical and/or cognitive issues that
             | substantially reduce their potential productivity. This is
             | one of many reasons we should prioritize preventing and
             | repairing the effects of aging, but until that happens it's
             | going to be a problem.
        
         | rm_-rf_slash wrote:
         | When populations age and shrink, everything becomes more
         | difficult.
         | 
         | Fewer working hands have to support more elderly retirees.
         | 
         | Less spending means less development, less maintenance, things
         | break down and nobody can afford to fix them. Entire towns and
         | villages slowly wither into nothing. It's a long, slow,
         | grinding, painful process with no other way around it.
         | 
         | And it's easy to say "maybe that village should disappear" when
         | it's not _your_ village.
        
           | barbazoo wrote:
           | It's not sustainable. Immigration would help but from what
           | I've heard, it seems that Japan isn't very immigration
           | positive overall.
        
         | lenerdenator wrote:
         | The problem isn't that companies are "afraid of not growing",
         | or governments are "afraid to cut spending", it's that they've
         | already signed off on paying back loans over the span of
         | decades and were expecting to be able to pay off those loans
         | with the value created by a growing population.
         | 
         | It's less about fear and more about economic realities.
        
           | bee_rider wrote:
           | What currency are the loans denominated in?
           | 
           | If they are looking at a large aged population (lots of
           | retirement savings) and lots of debt, inflation seems like an
           | obvious solution, right? People not working will take a QoL
           | hit due to their savings being worth less. But that is...
           | what it is, I guess.
        
           | rurp wrote:
           | Western governments hardly operate on a shoestring budget,
           | rather they've spent generations spending profligately with
           | the assumption that massive sustained economic growth would
           | bail them out without having to make any hard tradeoffs. That
           | strategy has worked out ok so far but it has always been a
           | fragile one and we might be entering an era where it fails to
           | work in many places.
           | 
           | The transition to much lower deficit spending certainly won't
           | be popular and might go catastrophically poorly. I actually
           | think there's a pretty good chance that things will go quite
           | poorly, but there's no reason it has to be so.
        
             | lenerdenator wrote:
             | > there's no reason it has to be so.
             | 
             | Besides basic human nature.
        
         | bee_rider wrote:
         | A lot of Japanese videogames seem to be set in a sort of
         | pseudo-post-apocalyptic sort of setting (Final Fantasy comes to
         | mind), where it isn't like... mad max raider stuff, but it is
         | clear that society once was larger and more developed, and now
         | things are diminished with some remnants. I'm wonder if their
         | population dynamics inspired that.
        
           | bbqfog wrote:
           | WWII is a much more likely inspiration.
        
         | brtkdotse wrote:
         | It's not great if it's 15 million supporting 35 million
         | children, elderly and sick.
        
           | WillyWonkaJr wrote:
           | Here's a case where robotics and other innovations can help
           | out.
        
             | barbazoo wrote:
             | A diaper changing robot would take care of both ends of the
             | spectrum, young and old.
        
       | Barrin92 wrote:
       | >Many sociologists attribute the ever-plunging birth rates to
       | Japan's unforgiving work culture and rising costs of living.
       | 
       | It still seems like an incredibly odd argument to me given that
       | the birth rate is only marginally lower than in the most
       | generous, least working European nations. Hungary spent 5%(!) of
       | its GDP on direct family support and it did very little (raised
       | the birth rate by 0.15 give or take).
       | 
       | I wonder when people will just acknowledge that most of the
       | secular decline of 1-2 children is simply down to personal
       | choice, family planning, education and financial freedom. (and
       | adjust economic policies accordingly)
        
         | MobiusHorizons wrote:
         | > adjust economic policies accordingly
         | 
         | What do you have in mind? My understanding is that this is not
         | something there is much of an economic solution for short of
         | canceling benefits (pensions / medical care)
        
           | standardUser wrote:
           | Immigration solves the issue entirely. Maybe not perpetually,
           | but for the foreseeable future.
        
           | Barrin92 wrote:
           | Pension reform is unpopular but will need to happen in
           | developed economies at some point or otherwise the youth that
           | remains will completely crash out. One positive of the
           | population pyramid is that the small next generations stand
           | to inherit quite a lot softening it to some extent. But it's
           | necessary.
           | 
           | Not enough discussed is also how much potential for labour
           | saving tech there is. The most 20 common jobs almost haven't
           | changed in decades. Retail, transport, clerks, back office,
           | admin, even without magic "AI" solutions, if we wanted to we
           | could design work around drastically cutting labour already.
           | It's actually one benefit of the demographics, a lot of
           | automation isn't happening because manual labour is cheap in
           | a lot of places, so there's potential for growth even.
        
         | Aeolun wrote:
         | The policies that make schooling and childcare free in Japan
         | are very nice.
         | 
         | The problem is that it doesn't move the needle. At least in
         | Tokyo it's more or less impossible to not have two working
         | parents and own a house. Outside of Tokyo, you might own a
         | house, but there's no jobs and everyone around you is 60+
        
       | reverendsteveii wrote:
       | I feel like it's been a long time fretting over falling birth
       | rates and this is the first time I've seen anyone float the idea
       | that making life better for people might make them a bit more
       | inclined to make more people.
        
         | Spivak wrote:
         | And treat parenting as something other than a passion project
         | you work on nights and weekends.
        
         | nkzd wrote:
         | I am not sure about this one. In the past, quality of life was
         | terrible compared to modern life but fertility was not an
         | issue.
        
           | bbqfog wrote:
           | Was it more terrible? You certainly had more organic social
           | connections and family support. Physically tougher than a
           | modern white collar job? Sure. Better than commuting and
           | working for some shitty boss though!
        
             | Asraelite wrote:
             | Try asking that after spending a while living in a tenement
             | building with 3 people per room and frequent outbreaks of
             | dysentery and smallpox.
        
               | bbqfog wrote:
               | People still live like this today.
        
               | cowgoesmoo wrote:
               | extremely rare in countries with falling birth rates
        
             | ipaddr wrote:
             | We take so much for granted. Living in a world without
             | electricity, medicine, food scarcity, lack of safety net.
             | 
             | Family didn't offer as much support as it appears. Average
             | kids are working farms rich children are sent away to be
             | raised.
             | 
             | The social bonds of the modern world still exist in the
             | same places as the past. It starts with the church.. so if
             | you crave the social connections you can still go to church
             | to find it.
        
               | brendoelfrendo wrote:
               | You almost had a coherent point until the last sentence.
               | I'll take my social bonds without the side-order of
               | dogma, thanks.
        
               | ipaddr wrote:
               | What bonds people in the past is religious dogma. We
               | removed it and we wonder why our social bonds are so
               | weak.
               | 
               | I'm not suggesting we go back but we have nothing to
               | replace it. The one thing a church did was welcome in
               | everyone. We don't have places like that anymore.
        
               | FredPret wrote:
               | ipaddr has a point.
               | 
               | The average person (non-scientist, non-technical) has
               | replaced belief in the supernatural and the church with
               | belief in science and the institutions of the state, and
               | though there have been major improvements, we haven't
               | completely refactored the old yet. Community and meaning
               | is major functionality that we have yet to figure out
               | anew.
        
           | yoyohello13 wrote:
           | People didn't have a choice back then. So the two options now
           | are: "force people to have kids" or "make life better for
           | people so they want kids". I'd like to think we've evolved
           | enough as a society to choose the later option.
        
           | brendoelfrendo wrote:
           | Quality of life was terrible, but some things were still
           | easier. Most importantly, that terrible quality of life was
           | cheap enough that your kids could probably support you in
           | your old age. Medical care wasn't so advanced, which is
           | cheaper, but also means you had a good chance of dying
           | younger or of a condition we could cure today. Housing was
           | cheaper but also worse back then. Investments weren't
           | accessible to the vast majority of people and "retirement" as
           | a concept didn't really exist for the lower classes except as
           | an idea that you would probably be too old to effectively do
           | your job someday. Nowadays, your kids probably can't afford
           | to support you into your old age, and you probably don't have
           | a pension, which means making more money now so that you
           | don't have to work until you die. You have a lot more options
           | for a higher quality of life, but they tend to require that
           | you prioritize money over a family unless you are either in
           | the privileged position of being able to afford both or poor
           | enough that it doesn't matter.
        
           | ativzzz wrote:
           | I imagine that birth control as well as the giant array of
           | entertainment options available to us other than sex
           | contributes to modern fertility
           | 
           | Why do poorer people have more kids? Sex is free, birth
           | control and netflix is not
        
           | plantwallshoe wrote:
           | Kids used to be seen as a way to increase quality of life.
           | They were free labor and a retirement plan all rolled into
           | one.
           | 
           | They still are seen as a way to increase quality of life but
           | in a more vibey sort of way.
        
         | beezlebroxxxxxx wrote:
         | It's not really a problem you can pick around at the edges. You
         | have to take some big swings to try to resolve it. Politicians,
         | businesses, and the _entire_ voting public, need to take a hard
         | look at the real things they can do that will have an actual
         | effect. 4-day workweek is a big one.
        
           | dennis_jeeves2 wrote:
           | >entire voting public,
           | 
           | Won't happen explicitly, The masses are short sighted. Might
           | happen implicitly through a series of co-incidental events
           | but never by design.
        
           | colechristensen wrote:
           | Second item: housing needs to be a bad investment. Both for
           | individuals and corporate.
        
         | RiverCrochet wrote:
         | I had an interesting discussion with my nephew about this post.
         | He angers me with the way he talks about stuff, but I consider
         | it an exercise in mental fortitude. Allow me to share his
         | absolutely crazy and unreasonable thoughts on this:
         | 
         | "Nobody really wants more people except certain religious
         | sects, and that is only because it allows them to use sexuality
         | to control people. Most modern capitalists would favor
         | automation precisely because it takes unreliable people out of
         | the capitalistic equation and makes conversion of real property
         | to wealth and power easier. The only reason why we're hearing
         | about fertility and birth rate in the last few years is because
         | certain religious organizations are scared they're going to end
         | up losing their tax-free status and leveraging current social
         | crises to make sure they stay relevant by any means necessary.
         | I'm betting they have armies of incels ensnared in their
         | fundamentalist ideologies getting tax-free money to shitpost on
         | the various social networks."
         | 
         | I cut him off right there. I think he was drinking, and I
         | haven't talked to him since. I'm considering having him
         | committed because he acts very strange. He may have a drug
         | problem.
         | 
         | Anyway I disagree with his premise because COVID-19 did really
         | expose weaknesses in the supply chain and global world order
         | and showed that depending completely on foreign entities can
         | make you non-resilient in the face of disaster. So we do need
         | strong families and all that stuff that's being talked about,
         | it's a real actual need. And I do think making life better for
         | people is the way to go, but we need to fix whatever decided
         | that landlords should be getting most of the non-rich people's
         | money first.
        
           | ativzzz wrote:
           | He's not totally wrong, just replace "Religious
           | organizations" with "Governments" and "tax-free status" with
           | "solders and workers"
        
             | beepbooptheory wrote:
             | Yes, and the basic idea that while a "modern" capitalist
             | might want automation from a productivity point of view,
             | they still need some consumers at the other end to buy
             | their stuff!
        
             | stjo wrote:
             | Also old people. They need younger people to support them,
             | like grow their food, fix their houses, etc. But given that
             | I plan on growing old, as I hope you do too, we should make
             | sure the generations after us are capable of taking care of
             | us.
        
             | dfxm12 wrote:
             | Not exactly, because "governments" are expressly
             | capitalist. While you're right in that governments and
             | capitalists want this type of fodder, OP's nephew is wrong
             | in his assessment of modern capitalists.
             | 
             | As an aside, some religions do teach a duty to be fruitful
             | and multiply. While I don't think capital G "Government"
             | cares who does or doesn't procreate in their country, there
             | are large organized political groups that promote this for
             | strictly ethno-nationalist reasons.
        
             | TeMPOraL wrote:
             | How about we go further, and replace "Governments" with
             | "human civilization" and "tax-free status" with "continued
             | existence"?
        
               | 05 wrote:
               | Unbounded population growth is sufficient but not
               | necessary for continued existence of a civilization..
        
           | pnut wrote:
           | You might should read up on postmodern philosophy before you
           | serve up your relative to the system, for deviating from your
           | "one true narrative of history".
           | 
           | So arrogant.
           | 
           | Someone should have you committed for your personal opinions,
           | which are also wrong, and see how you like it.
        
           | LAC-Tech wrote:
           | Your over-reaction sounds far more reminiscent of mental
           | illness or drug abuse than any of his actual opinions, which
           | are fairly pedestrian in 2024 (for the record I don't agree
           | with them).
           | 
           | No one is going to commit him over that grandpa, seriously.
        
         | orangecat wrote:
         | It's actually that life is too good for childless people,
         | especially when they're wealthier. Take a DINK couple with high
         | paying jobs, say an engineer and an attorney. Without kids they
         | can have a nice house or condo, regularly take great vacations,
         | and still be saving enough to have the option of retiring in
         | their 40s or 50s. But with kids, that mostly goes out the
         | window. The societal expectation is that you should spend
         | basically all your disposable time and income on your children,
         | which means expensive daycare, travel sports (gotta start
         | working on the college applications in grade school), and
         | private schools (or "good" "public" schools gated by living in
         | a super-expensive area). And even if you can avoid all that,
         | colleges are very good at figuring out how much money you have
         | and declaring that to be the tuition.
         | 
         | As a high-earning childless person myself, I'll freely
         | acknowledge that I should have been paying significantly higher
         | taxes in order to benefit my counterparts who did have kids.
         | Although it would be a challenge to do that redistribution in a
         | way that doesn't just get captured by daycare and college.
        
           | yieldcrv wrote:
           | It was actually just _last month_ that I saw one of these
           | falling birthrate articles actually acknowledge that many
           | people just don 't want kids, it was in the NY Times too
           | 
           | I'm glad we are finally getting representation on that
           | instead of all these social science studies contorting
           | themselves to come to a child-aspiring default that couples
           | are somehow failing to reach
           | 
           | https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/well/family/grandparent-g.
           | ..
        
           | cosmic_cheese wrote:
           | There's also some number of couples whose ideal is "no
           | compromises" -- that is, they hope to both provide the best
           | for their kids _and_ keep the nice house, vacations,
           | comfortable retirement, etc.
           | 
           | While this isn't strictly impossible, it's well beyond the
           | reach of most, and so I suspect that this group mostly ends
           | up never having kids.
        
           | dividefuel wrote:
           | I agree with this as the main factor (over cost) for the
           | falling birth rate. The opportunity cost of having children
           | has never been higher: you give up leisure, hobbies, rest,
           | social life, and income. Whether or not children is worth
           | this cost is a personal thing, but it seems kinda obvious
           | that as the cost increases, fewer will pay it.
        
             | WarOnPrivacy wrote:
             | > The opportunity cost of having children has never been
             | higher: you give up leisure, hobbies, rest, social life,
             | and income.
             | 
             | Those things are given up because parenting-time is up
             | 20-fold from a few generations ago.
             | 
             | From the 1960s back, kids needed parents a few hours a
             | week.
             | 
             | But we reduced kids' roaming area from _many sq mi_ to
             | _just their own property_. At the same time, we instituted
             | 24 /7 adulting. Most of those hours are filled by parents.
             | 
             | Kids have permanently lost daily hours of peer-driven
             | growth - the ones where complex social interactions
             | occurred naturally. Parents are now left with trying to
             | construct artificial environments (leagues, programs) where
             | maybe some of that can occur.
             | 
             | Those efforts eat time and resources. And they're a poor
             | substitute for the vital environments that kids once had
             | for free.
             | 
             | I spent 20x the time parenting that my mom did. For all of
             | that, my kids had little-to-none of my growth
             | opportunities.
        
           | colechristensen wrote:
           | The parents I've seen seem to spend every waking second
           | doting on their children for at least a decade, which seems
           | strange to me. This hovering "what can I do to satisfy your
           | desires" literally just constantly (I've also seen people
           | doing this with their dogs). Maybe I'm missing something or
           | my sample size is skewed.
           | 
           | The people I've seen doing this are also just exhausted, as
           | they've said directly.
           | 
           | It comes down to... the rent is too damn high.
           | 
           | Young people without children willing to spend 1/3 to 1/2 of
           | their total income servicing mortgages or rent drives the
           | cost of living to ridiculous levels. People can't afford
           | child care either by having family live close to high earners
           | to help, or to hire child care. So it's unaffordable. There's
           | nowhere to live for families in high density places
           | (apartment buildings optimize for the highest rent tennants,
           | 1,2 BR single people)
           | 
           | Lots of people want children but can't engineer a life for
           | themselves to have them without moving somewhere really far
           | out and boring or being in the top 5% of earners, or living
           | in squalor despite high incomes.
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | >The parents I've seen seem to spend every waking second
             | doting on their children for at least a decade, which seems
             | strange to me. This hovering "what can I do to satisfy your
             | desires" literally just constantly
             | 
             | While some of it may be overbearing parenting due to
             | wanting kids to compete or train for the future, there is
             | also the fact that kids cannot be left alone, and there is
             | no extended family supervision for them, and you are told
             | you cannot let your kids sit in front of a screen all day.
             | 
             | There's no neighborhood chain of kids ranging from high
             | school to toddler playing with each other, there is no
             | outside time without adult supervision, an adult who is
             | legally liable.
             | 
             | And of course, cars. The environment is optimized for cars,
             | not kids, so kids either sit inside alone or with 1 sibling
             | or they need to be supervised.
             | 
             | Not applicable to every single family, but many.
        
             | bobthepanda wrote:
             | It really cannot be understated how few homes we have built
             | since the Great Recession and the terrible impact that has
             | had on COL.
             | 
             | To give an idea of what it takes to solve a housing
             | shortfall, Sweden successfully embarked on a million-homes
             | program over a decade in the 70s when the population of
             | Sweden was 7 million.
             | 
             | NYC recently just celebrated the passage of a zoning reform
             | that allows at most 80,000 new homes, and the population is
             | 8.2 million.
        
               | orangecat wrote:
               | Yes. I 100% believe in the Housing Theory of Everything:
               | https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-
               | every...
        
           | nemo44x wrote:
           | I enjoyed the DINK life for some time but eventually we
           | decided to start a family and my only regret in life is we
           | didn't start it sooner and have more kids. In the end all the
           | fancy restaurants, nights out, fancy vacations with first
           | class airfare, etc were nice in some ways but pretty vapid
           | and unimportant when looking back. I won't value those years
           | very much compared to the years with children in the house.
           | The energy kids bring into a home and the meaningfulness of
           | their existence is just incomparable in my experience.
           | 
           | But I get it, and the idea of kids was scary at one time, but
           | it turns out they're pretty easy all things considered. Lots
           | of talk of "sacrifice" between friends back then but as it
           | turns out you're trading something of little value for
           | something of immense value. But to each their own!
        
             | hanslovsky wrote:
             | I have the sentiment. would have loved to have kids
             | earlier, but I also was not in the position at an earlier
             | age, relationship wise. Growing up in Germany, having kids
             | in your 20s was almost frowned upon. what a terrible
             | societal development!
        
           | lotsofpulp wrote:
           | Excellent comment. All the evidences suggests to me that
           | removing Social Security/Medicare and other wealth transfers
           | from young to old are actually the only thing that might
           | incentivize sufficient people to have sufficient kids to meet
           | replacement TFR AND raise the kids into the type of adults
           | you want.
           | 
           | The reasoning behind this is even with the best quality of
           | life, many women will have 2 children, but insufficient women
           | will have 3 or more children such that it offsets the number
           | of women who have 0 or 1 child.
           | 
           | Those with zero children really drag the average down, and if
           | it is because partnering with a certain portion of the
           | population is simply not worth it, then government efforts on
           | improving quality of life via work and benefit policies are
           | not going to bump TFR to replacement rate.
        
           | hiAndrewQuinn wrote:
           | I'll gladly volunteer to be the first to say "Fuck those
           | societal expectations, that's insane."
           | 
           | You don't owe your children much more than food, love and a
           | roof over their head. Sure, you might _want_ to give them the
           | world, but don 't listen to anyone telling you that's the
           | _expectation_ - that 's a fast track to resentment.
        
             | a1exyz wrote:
             | I agree and think that this is a huge growing cultural
             | expectation - "you have to live for your children". I don't
             | think it used to be the case.
             | 
             | Well OK sure I get that that would be good for kids but
             | you're also gonna limit the number of parents if that's the
             | new normal.
        
             | halgir wrote:
             | On the contrary, from a moral standpoint you owe your
             | children everything. You forced them into existence without
             | their consent.
             | 
             | Though I agree that doesn't have to mean conforming to
             | societal expectations of ivy league schools and so forth.
             | Food, love and a roof over your head goes a long way.
        
               | WarOnPrivacy wrote:
               | > from a moral standpoint you owe your children
               | everything. You forced them into existence without their
               | consent.
               | 
               | This is the first truth of parenting.
               | 
               | It's also one I had to learn. After I did, organizing my
               | priorities became far simpler.
               | 
               | Parenting is service.
        
               | hiAndrewQuinn wrote:
               | Disagree philosophically, there was no "them" to consent
               | prior to them existing, so no one was forced. I think
               | this is gesturing at Benatar's antinatalist argument but
               | as you'll recall it rests on a metaphysical asymmetry
               | here I have just never found convincing. Appreciate you
               | keeping the pushback civil, however.
        
               | vlovich123 wrote:
               | It's interesting to compare this perspective with
               | religious teachings which tend to say that kids owe
               | everything to their parents ("honor") and that parents
               | responsibility is to train their kids with good moral
               | character (on top of food, love & shelter).
               | 
               | As a parent you want to give them everything but you then
               | have to balance that against realities & other
               | priorities. That's part of the training of a good moral
               | character: learning to manage life's limitations & your
               | response to those limitations.
        
           | wkat4242 wrote:
           | Don't feel bad. It's good for the planet and society to
           | reduce the population somewhat. It can't keep growing
           | forever. All the major problems we have are a result of it.
           | Climate change, housing shortage, resource conflicts etc.
           | 
           | The demographic problems during a decline are only temporary.
           | 
           | If the world had only 1 billion people it would be a lot
           | easier. The whole idea that humanity would go extinct is
           | ridiculous. And humanity is still growing anyway due to the
           | many countries that don't have falling birth rates.
           | 
           | There's always people wanting to have kids. This is just
           | society adjusting itself to the current overpopulation.
        
       | lordleft wrote:
       | I think this is an overall good move, and very much support it,
       | but many countries with better work-life balance and robust
       | support for new parents still see declining birth rates....I
       | can't help but think that a decline in fertility rates is as much
       | about values -- what the point of life itself is, and how much it
       | should be bound up in what we call the family -- as it is about
       | the material conditions surrounding the act of child-rearing.
        
         | pinkmuffinere wrote:
         | I don't necessarily disagree with you that values are more
         | impactful, but personally I think it's very difficult/nearly
         | impossible to intentionally steer a culture's values. Do you
         | think there is anything procedural/structural that could be
         | impactful for declining birth rates?
        
       | Nickersf wrote:
       | I don't think it will boost the fertility rate in any significant
       | way. I think the only way to really make a dent in low fertility
       | rates is to incentivize mothers to stay at home and men to work
       | full-time at least for the first five years of a child's life. I
       | know people disagree with this, but it's worth considering if the
       | declining birth rates are a major concern for the State.
        
         | pamelafox wrote:
         | I'm curious if you have tried taking care of a young child
         | 24/7, it is exhausting work. Some mothers are able to do it,
         | but I find it really helps to be able to alternate between
         | childcare and work, to give me a break.
         | 
         | I do think that remote work is great for mothers though, as it
         | makes pumping/nursing more doable, whether we are working or
         | not.
         | 
         | Perhaps the government can provide more subsidies for quality
         | childcare.
        
           | helsinki wrote:
           | Just get divorced and only spend a few days per week with
           | your kid. Honestly, it's pretty good.
        
         | standardUser wrote:
         | A better policy would be to incentivize _any_ parent to stay
         | home for the first few years. Restricting it to mothers would
         | only reduce the appeal of the policy and result in fewer
         | takers, so why default to a more restrictive approach?
        
       | wwwlouishinofun wrote:
       | The pleasure of sexual activity is not strongly linked to
       | pregnancy. This kind of human intervention was unexpected in the
       | evolution of nature.
        
       | Aeolun wrote:
       | As much as I enjoy the concept, it's already nearly impossible to
       | get any goverment work done in Japan without taking a day off
       | yourself. Everything government is open 9 to 5 and no more.
       | 
       | It'd be more exciting if this was basically anywhere else, but I
       | guess we have to start somewhere.
        
         | barbazoo wrote:
         | Hopefully the workers don't all take off the same day and the
         | company backfills the hours with new 4 days/week workers.
        
       | jmward01 wrote:
       | This focuses on fertility, but the bigger deal here is it creates
       | jobs. Because when you reduce the availability of labor you
       | create more jobs and spur the economy. Not only will more people
       | have jobs, but they will have more time to spend money. So this
       | is potentially a win for the local economy.
        
         | pinkmuffinere wrote:
         | If they're just reshuffling the existing work to a larger pool
         | of people, do you really improve the economy? If anything I'd
         | expect efficiency to decrease?
        
         | orangecat wrote:
         | This is a variant of the broken window fallacy. Paying more in
         | labor for the same amount of output is not good for the
         | economy.
        
           | jmward01 wrote:
           | This isn't destroying anything so I'm not sure why you say
           | this has anything to do with the broken window fallacy or why
           | this could be bad for the economy.
           | 
           | Since there is confusion here, I'll pose this as a different
           | thought experiment to make my points more clear: If it isn't
           | good for the economy to reduce the average hours per worker
           | then does that mean it is good for the economy to increase
           | them? If we reduce the free-time of people then they will
           | have even less time to spend their money and consume goods.
           | Arguably they would also have less incentive to care about
           | free-time activities that they can only, at best, sample.
           | 
           | The basic question I am raising is why is 5 days of 8 hours
           | magically the right number. I'd argue that the more free time
           | people have the more chance to consume they have. We balance
           | that with the need to produce though. So an optimum point is
           | actually driven by efficiency. The more efficient we are the
           | more we should be diverting to free-time in order to drive
           | more demand for the the. efficient goods we are producing. In
           | a world where we are infinitely efficient then 100% of time
           | should be spent in free-time in order to consume the most
           | goods produced by that infinite efficiency. We aren't there
           | yet so we still need to balance production against free-time
           | but we are more efficient than we were 20 years ago so we
           | should be finding ways to give back free-time to drive up
           | demand.
        
         | eastbound wrote:
         | Breaking windows also creates jobs.
         | 
         | (It's a fallacy, but I'm too lazy to face the criticism if I
         | explain it in full. In summary, please inform yourself on why
         | both breaking windows and working less don't create jobs).
        
       | jonny_eh wrote:
       | Is this the largest test/rollout of a 4 day work week ever?
        
       | mclau156 wrote:
       | The idea of working 5 days a week began when an extra day of
       | working meant you could manufacture an extra 100 cars, workload
       | in the Tokyo government is not going to suffer much output at all
       | if any by going to working 4 days a week
        
       | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
       | So... five days?
       | 
       | Maybe government work is different from private industry work,
       | but the folks at my company worked six days a week, with Saturday
       | being a "half day" (only 8 hours). However, Saturday wasn't an
       | "official" office day, so casual attire was allowed, and the A/C
       | was often turned off.
       | 
       | I hated going in on Saturdays.
        
       | dfxm12 wrote:
       | Shorter hours for less pay feels like a trap for salaried
       | workers, unless your duties are also _very formally_ lessened. I
       | know people who have been granted similar schedules, but their
       | managers simply expected them to get the same amount of work
       | done, but in less time, for less pay.
        
         | agnishom wrote:
         | I agree. If I made 20% less money and worked 20% less at my
         | main job, I would still need to make up for that 20% of my
         | income. That could be a difficult position to be in.
        
       | agnishom wrote:
       | Surprisingly progressive policy.
       | 
       | I know this is mostly tangential, but I think that this should be
       | the way humanity should benefit from technology. Better
       | technology shouldn't just exist to make capitalists richer, but
       | it should exist to make everyone richer. One of the most
       | important ways you can be richer is to have more time.
        
       | icandoit wrote:
       | for parents only?
        
       | camgunz wrote:
       | Guys if this is happening in Tokyo of all places, no one else has
       | any excuse.
        
       | zombiwoof wrote:
       | Elon Musk is pissed
        
       | dukeofdoom wrote:
       | Ai should run government
        
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