[HN Gopher] Intel's board, and an example of when boards and sho...
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       Intel's board, and an example of when boards and short-termism fail
        
       Author : LarsDu88
       Score  : 329 points
       Date   : 2024-12-06 00:44 UTC (22 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.fabricatedknowledge.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.fabricatedknowledge.com)
        
       | LarsDu88 wrote:
       | Just thought this article really drives home how a behemoth
       | company like Intel in the midst of a turnaround can be completely
       | kneecapped by a board of directors (virtually none of whom have
       | any semiconductor experience!)
        
         | scrubs wrote:
         | See comments in
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42321673
         | 
         | Re c-suite
         | 
         | And for a positive counter example think Louis V. Gerstner, Jr.
         | (1993 - 2002) when ibm was in a jamb.
        
           | trimbo wrote:
           | Gerstner saved a brand name by destroying a tech company and
           | making it a consulting company. I'm not sure the same is
           | possible with Intel.
        
             | Spivak wrote:
             | I think that undersells IBMs continued technical
             | achievement in the mainframe space. It's a niche business
             | but the folks who need it _really_ need it. Sure fine it 's
             | not their growth sector, software (thanks mostly to
             | RedHat), but they managed to keep a really cool and unique
             | segment of engineering going despite commodity hardware
             | eating the world.
        
             | scrubs wrote:
             | Gerstner left ibm far better than when he found it. That's
             | the main point.
             | 
             | Now generally speaking most American OEMs lost their
             | manufacturing chops since 1985 when software began eating
             | everything.
             | 
             | Today, tech companies need to decide: did that go too far?
             | Should we reincorporate physical r&d, and down size
             | manufacturing supply chain bringing it back inside?
             | 
             | Those are legit questions. Summarily stating ibm is just a
             | consulting company doesn't get us anywhere.
        
           | btilly wrote:
           | IBM had three problems at that point.
           | 
           | The first was a culture of speaking to the expectations of
           | senior executives, and following strategies that made no
           | sense.
           | 
           | The second was that they were on all sides of all technology
           | disputes - and so everyone hated them.
           | 
           | The third was that they were under an antitrust consent
           | decree.
           | 
           | Basic software expertise wasn't going to help with any of
           | this. The third was going to solve itself in time. The second
           | was good old accounting. The first, well,
           | https://gunkies.org/wiki/Gordon_Letwin_OS/2_usenet_post does
           | a good job of describing what IBM was doing wrong.
           | 
           | By the time Open Source became a thing, IBM clearly had
           | figured it out. The golden rule is this, people are willing
           | to pay a certain amount for a solution to their problems.
           | People don't care how their budget is divided. So if the
           | complement to your solution is open source, you can charge
           | more for the proprietary bit. Better yet, the open source
           | thing with a bunch of support has a better shot than a
           | completely proprietary stack. So open source the complement
           | to your real product.
           | 
           | Gerstner somehow "got it". And it showed. This is why IBM
           | supported Linux, Apache, etc in 1998/1999. Letting Microsoft
           | lose the standards battles.
           | 
           | But do I see you saying that standards are a software issue?
           | Maybe, but they also mattered to American Express. Which is
           | where he came from. So he was equipped to understand the
           | issue.
        
             | wileydragonfly wrote:
             | That Usenet post was a fascinating read. I've only
             | encountered OS/2 once in the wild, and it was in a lab
             | being used to operate a very specialized piece of
             | equipment, and it was circa 2005 so it was all ancient
             | relics. Oddly, the lab members spoke highly of the user
             | experience in OS/2 but I never got to mess with it.
        
               | HdS84 wrote:
               | I have seen it at s friend when it was new. Multiple DOS
               | boxes where nifty. I think it also was less prone to
               | crashes from faulty applications.
        
               | btilly wrote:
               | I learned a lot from that post. It is where I got a lot
               | of ideas that I still use to understand the world today.
        
             | scrubs wrote:
             | You make good points, and provide good details. Thank you.
             | I'll add around that. Based on a book or two I read on IBM
             | at the time under Gerstner,
             | 
             | - talked to the top 50 or 100 customers to learn what IBM
             | was good at, and sucked at. From this he learned that IBM's
             | weird nomenclature and incompatibility with other LANs,
             | disks, etc.. sucked. He learned IBM was a bit lost in its
             | own world. Perhaps more critically written as entitled. IBM
             | worked on fixing it. On the good side he learned customers
             | like IBM for consulting/out-sourcing of projects. Whether
             | apps, LANs, O/S, storage one at a time or all at the same
             | time, IBM did it all and decently well. Customers had one
             | guy to thank (when things good) or yell at (when things
             | went wrong). Customer's prefer that over dealing with 4
             | different specialist companies they then had to corall onto
             | the same page with attendant billing isssues. Insane costs
             | for mainframes was another "IBM sucks".
             | 
             | - These points taken together is why Gerstner decided to
             | not split IBM up, which is what the out-going CEO (Akron?)
             | suggested. At the time specialist firms in printing, disk,
             | LANs, etc were progressing faster than IBM. It was thought
             | splitting IBM and selling off divisions might make those
             | divisions more competitive and allow what remained to be
             | more profitable.
             | 
             | - Learned that IBM had some good ideas that died in
             | corporate American BS of meetings. Example: IBM had a
             | manufacturing plan to reduce the costs of mainframes. When
             | he found out never done, he got that going, and did
             | something about removing the cruft of Corp America politics
             | and nonsense that chokes out good ideas.
             | 
             | - IBM also got lucky that the internet era (think B2B)
             | needed high capacity HW. Mainframes were key. They had the
             | horsepower. IBM moved MSRP down, and made a lot of money at
             | the same time.
             | 
             | - Gerstner was firm but fair. When he came in he said IBM's
             | financial situation was dire. He said there'd be layoff's
             | but once done, IBM would tend to not do more. So whoever
             | was left was wanted, and was needed to make IBM better.
             | That was both a like of remaining employees, a warm thanks
             | to those who were left, and a warning, and an attempt to
             | remove fear of firings in the future. Be here and be real
             | or get lost. He sold off art, and real-estate to raise
             | cash.
        
           | LarsDu88 wrote:
           | Positive counterexample? So you want Intel to go from a
           | semiconductor manufacturing and design firm into a consulting
           | and outsourcing company?
        
             | scrubs wrote:
             | No. I want ibm to be a better ibm for its customers, and
             | ditto for intel. Intel clearly is more about manufacturing
             | than ibm. Put another way, dropping hw and hw manufacturing
             | at Intel for something else is net worse.
        
       | sitkack wrote:
       | Most bureaucratic woes can be attributed to abysmal board
       | oversight, profit and non-profit alike.
        
         | Loughla wrote:
         | And when CEO or presidents are allowed to snow the board via
         | force of personality and (for lack of a better way to say it)
         | good old boy mentality.
         | 
         | I've lived through it at multiple organizations.
         | 
         | It's the worst death for a company.
        
       | buckle8017 wrote:
       | Intel without a foundry has no strategic value to the people of
       | the united states.
       | 
       | Intel is pretty obviously dependent on taxpayer subsidies right
       | now.
       | 
       | So they're going to get rid of the foundry?
       | 
       | Big brain plan over there.
        
         | NortySpock wrote:
         | I was going to say, the fab is capital-intensive but at least
         | has value as an asset so long as you can keep it printing out
         | chips profitably, which is more likely in a trade war where
         | certain foreign chips are banned...
         | 
         | As for what chips you print on them... x86, ARM, RISC-V, GPUs,
         | NPUs, RAM, FPGAs, PLAs, print whatever the market asks for...
         | It's not like there's fundamental superior value in x86 as an
         | intellectual property, just inertia.
         | 
         | But local manufacturing gets protected in a trade war, because
         | you'll need it if push comes to shove. Intellectual property
         | just gets stolen and copied.
        
       | henriquez wrote:
       | I'm sure the Intel board members will be drying their tears with
       | hundred dollar bills when their assistants tell them about this
       | article. I don't remember a time when Intel either had a strategy
       | or the strategy wasn't short-sighted.
        
       | njtransit wrote:
       | There's an implicit assumption in the article that, because
       | Gelsinger was technically competent, he was going to be a great
       | CEO of given enough time.
       | 
       | Personally, I've heard nothing but bad things from Intel during
       | Gelsinger's tenure. He had some lofty ideas, but he clearly
       | wasn't executing well with Intel's bread and butter business.
       | 
       | Also, I'm not sure good engineers always make good managers.
       | Management is all about delegation. The skillset is really about
       | identifying talent and trusting them to do things competently so
       | you don't have to worry about the details. That's pretty much the
       | antithesis of engineering, where you like thinking through the
       | specific details of how things will work. And of course,
       | engineering is only one part of brining products to market.
        
         | jackyinger wrote:
         | If you care to read the article you'll find evidence of Pat's
         | competence.
        
         | Zigurd wrote:
         | There's a strong case to be made that Intel CEO is the worst
         | job in tech, and also the most complex, and it also has
         | mediocre upside. Which prompts the question: Is there someone
         | better than Pat Gelsinger who actually wants that job?
        
           | rsanek wrote:
           | $50m yearly salary is limited upside? interesting take
        
             | eric-hu wrote:
             | That's a lot of money to you and me, but we're not in the
             | running for a CEO position at Intel. For the people who
             | might be, I wouldn't be surprised if that's peanuts.
        
               | Earw0rm wrote:
               | It's also, weirdly, not going to make a lot of difference
               | to the person earning it.
               | 
               | If you're next in line to that, you can already afford
               | literally everything. Or stop working tomorrow and still
               | afford _almost_ everything.
               | 
               | So it's about whether or not it's a good job to work in,
               | and one that will enhance your reputation and status.
        
               | aitchnyu wrote:
               | IIRC 10 year old report states 100 million usd net worth
               | is enough to buy whatever you want.
        
               | Earw0rm wrote:
               | Depends on your appetite of course. But I think it's safe
               | to say that if you're not satisfied at $10m net worth,
               | you're never going to be, and you'll just keep on chasing
               | til circumstances force you to stop.
        
               | njtransit wrote:
               | 50M in salary is actually quite high. The S&P 500 average
               | is less than 20M. I've seen companies half the size of
               | Intel pay their CEOs ~11M.
        
               | BeetleB wrote:
               | It is high. And it is wrong. See details here:
               | 
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42341514
        
             | alecco wrote:
             | When you can get fired by the board within 6 months, it
             | matters. This could be a death blow gig for a competent
             | career CEO.
        
             | BeetleB wrote:
             | > $50m yearly salary is limited upside? interesting take
             | 
             | OK. Rule of thumb. Any sensationalist headline about CEO
             | making $N dollars is always wrong.
             | 
             | The real details are in the Proxy statement they are now
             | required to file. As an example, when Pat signed on, his
             | compensation package was worth over $160m. How much did he
             | actually get? $10M. Why? Because the rest of the package
             | was contingent on high share prices (I think $80 was the
             | lowest target). He got none of it.
             | 
             | And the punchline: His total payout during his whole tenure
             | is $46-49M. That's over almost 4 years. And includes his
             | sign on bonus and severance bonus.
             | 
             | So yes, your claim of $50m yearly salary is ludicrous.
             | 
             | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pat-gelsinger-lost-
             | massive-14...
        
               | nimish wrote:
               | Incredible that they set his performance targets on stock
               | price and not on market share and technological
               | superiority.
               | 
               | Priorities and incentives matter
        
         | rvba wrote:
         | Guy praying on twitter does not sound like some scientist to
         | me, although article says he did 486
        
           | Zigurd wrote:
           | He's religious but that shows publicly only on his personal
           | social media posts once a week, where he posts a bible verse.
           | That's unusual in the tech industry. For some people like for
           | example, Cathie Wood, conspicuous religiosity is a red flag.
           | But I've never seen any evidence that Pat Gelsinger has any
           | problems like that.
        
           | tgma wrote:
           | Lots of top tier scientists have been religious. Knuth is
           | too, for instance. It strikes me as strange that believing in
           | "simulation theory" has become cool and acceptable in tech
           | circles, but somehow traditional popular religions are
           | frowned upon. Feels dogmatic to believe so strongly that
           | scientists necessarily have to be in direct contrast with
           | religion.
        
             | shiroiushi wrote:
             | >It strikes me as strange that believing in "simulation
             | theory" has become cool and acceptable in tech circles
             | 
             | It has? I like to bring it up in comments sometimes, and I
             | see other people do too, but this doesn't mean anyone
             | actually "believes in it". Imagining it as a possibility is
             | not at all akin to a religious belief, where you have a
             | strong, _dogmatic_ belief in something despite a total lack
             | of evidence (or even evidence to the contrary).
        
               | lupusreal wrote:
               | > _a religious belief, where you have a strong, dogmatic
               | belief_
               | 
               | "Strong" belief is probably overselling the strength of
               | the belief of an average religious adherent. A whole lot
               | of people have doubts, only go to church a few times a
               | year, etc. There are a lot of people for whom Pascal's
               | Wager is persuasive, who stick with a religion despite
               | severe doubts _" just in case."_
               | 
               | In either the case of traditional religion or simulation
               | theory, you have people with varied levels of conviction
               | believing in something for which there isn't empirical
               | evidence. As an atheist, I consider simulation theory to
               | be one of the many manifestation of the innate religious
               | tendencies in humans. It lacks a supernatural component
               | _per se_ (that 's debatable, it depends on what is meant
               | precisely by _super_ natural), but it's a framework
               | commonly used to construct many of the same spiritual
               | systems traditionally seen in religions _(our reality was
               | intentionally created, we have a purpose to the creator,
               | we 're being watched, we're being judged, etc)_
        
         | shiroiushi wrote:
         | >Also, I'm not sure good engineers always make good managers.
         | 
         | I worked at Intel when Craig Barrett was CEO. He was also a
         | former engineer, and he was a terrible CEO. Intel got involved
         | in a bunch of stupid stuff during his tenure, like the P4
         | Netburst architecture, the RAMBUS fiasco, and lots of side
         | businesses that didn't pan out. Otellini took over and fixed
         | things by going to the Core architecture, IIRC.
         | 
         | I'd say that good engineers becoming good managers (esp. upper
         | managers) is the exception, not the rule.
        
           | tgma wrote:
           | > I'd say that good engineers becoming good managers (esp.
           | upper managers) is the exception, not the rule.
           | 
           | Good managers are exceptions, period. Still, good engineers
           | are leaps and bounds more likely to be effective as managers,
           | even if they make managerial mistakes. This is probably even
           | more true for high level executives than line managers.
           | 
           | There's a common bigco school of thought that does not say
           | this explicitly, but believes "nerds are bad managers," so if
           | you are good at engineering you're less likely to be good at
           | management, so let's go hire pro managers (that end up being
           | schmoozers and less technical). In my experience, the less
           | technical managers have been bozos AND bad at management.
        
             | packetlost wrote:
             | I had a conversation today about that topic sorta. I find
             | the abstract tradeoffs of writing software (ie. efficiency
             | vs flexibility) to be inherent to company social structures
             | as well. I suspect the intuition that engineers build up of
             | knowing when to favor either side is applicable, just with
             | different error signals.
        
               | YZF wrote:
               | There are a lot of similarities between software and
               | organizations. But being a CEO also requires people
               | skills. Many of us software folks have good intuition
               | about how to make technical projects successful but the
               | way to get there often involves getting other people to
               | cooperate. AKA leadership. That's the tough one.
               | 
               | That said I agree that a CEO of a company like Intel has
               | to be technical. I mean we saw what happened to Apple
               | when the CEO came from Pepsi. But you need someone
               | technical, in the domain, who is also a strong leader and
               | a visionary and those people are not that common.
        
               | PittleyDunkin wrote:
               | Reminds me a lot of Conway's Law:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway%27s_law
        
             | bjarneh wrote:
             | > the less technical managers have been bozos AND bad at
             | management
             | 
             | The golden combo.
        
             | lnsru wrote:
             | Technical founder sold a company (where I currently work)
             | to a big corp. Big corp sends here regularly directors with
             | MBA to fix things, but things are worse and worse every
             | year. People ask me why I joined a company in free fall
             | every week. The thing is that technical understanding of
             | MBAs is close to zero. Result will not improve throwing
             | away 15% of the employees (the guy before current director
             | did this). It's obvious to me as an engineer with
             | experience in operations - the products are not designed
             | for easy production and manual testing takes too long and
             | has bad error coverage. I have experience to fix obvious
             | technical problems. No MBA will see them in first place. No
             | MBA with their arrogance will listen to an engineer. Let's
             | wait for recession to end and look for new jobs.
        
               | oneshtein wrote:
               | Talk to your manager manager. Talk in manager's language.
               | Be rich. :-/
        
             | silvestrov wrote:
             | It's a very common business school line of thought that
             | managers are always smarter than the people they manage.
             | Employees are seen as "resources", not as talents.
             | 
             | So by definition nerds (and other non-business school
             | people) cannot be as good.
        
           | ethbr1 wrote:
           | The difference between immediate pre-P4 and now Intel
           | problems is stark though.
           | 
           | Immediately pre-P4, Intel need a better architecture than
           | K6-* or AMD-next (revealed as Athlon). That's not a process
           | problem.
           | 
           | Now, Intel needs their leading node to work. That's a process
           | problem.
           | 
           | Arguably, none of Intel's business model works if their
           | process is substantially behind TSMC.
           | 
           | Consequently, the CEO and board should be 100% focused on
           | returning to process parity.
           | 
           | Gelsinger at least had an economically viable plan for that.
           | Without him? No strategic plan: the board sure as shit isn't
           | going to come up with one.
        
             | YZF wrote:
             | Intel historically was the best at semiconductor
             | manufacturing processes. That's what got it where it got
             | to.
             | 
             | I bought some Intel shares when it crashed last time but
             | the latest events are changing my mind on the prospects of
             | this company. Intel getting to be the best at process
             | happened over years or decades of people and culture. If
             | that's gone there's no way to reproduce it. Looking from
             | the outside it looks like through offshoring, layoffs and
             | culture issues they've basically lost what they had.
             | 
             | I think AMD managed to make it through tough times (and
             | Intel way back then as well) because even when the company
             | was struggling financially it managed to maintain people
             | and culture that enabled it to overcome the challenges. But
             | now the times have changed and executives don't see people
             | or culture as leverage, and are happy to get rid of those.
             | You better not need any amazing execution from that point
             | on.
        
               | tgma wrote:
               | > Intel historically was the best at semiconductor
               | manufacturing processes. That's what got it where it got
               | to.
               | 
               | Exactly. AMD has been executing perfectly on the CPU
               | side, but they also happened to be a key beneficiary in
               | an unprecedented event in the past few decades: TSMC
               | overtaking Intel in their process which would likely not
               | have happened without Apple betting on them.
               | 
               | Intel did not benefit from the stagnation they had which
               | was enabled by their success and monopoly. Internet
               | Explorer 6-level stagnation: from Haswell to ~2018 they
               | successfully shipped the same product over and over again
               | and when AMD pressure started to mount, they basically
               | trickled down higher core counts into cheaper SKUs. It
               | would have worked, except at the highest end, they needed
               | the process to be competitive and it wasn't, which messed
               | up everything.
        
             | hedora wrote:
             | It's not just a process problem. Unless you are on windows
             | or playing steam games on linux, there is zero reason to
             | prefer x86.
             | 
             | Those markets add to way less than 50% of consumer market
             | share. X86 is rapidly declining in cloud too.
             | 
             | It reminds me of sun, dec and hp fighting to have the best
             | commercial unix OS in the late 1990's. Even if you win, you
             | loose.
        
               | kimixa wrote:
               | The only way you can get _close_ to x86 being  "less than
               | 50% of the consumer market" is by including phones, but
               | I'd argue that's a new market _on top_ of the  "consumer
               | computing" market. And even then, in "unit count" rather
               | than revenue.
        
               | adrian_b wrote:
               | Besides Windows or gaming, there is another market for
               | x86.
               | 
               | If you are interested in technical and scientific
               | computing, but you cannot afford to spend amounts of $
               | written with 6 digits or much more, then x86 is the only
               | solution.
               | 
               | The only Arm-based CPUs with decent performance are those
               | made by Fujitsu, which are not available at retail.
               | 
               | The "datacenter" GPUs from AMD and NVIDIA are much too
               | expensive for small businesses or individuals. Even for a
               | bigger business their price is justifiable only when they
               | are busy close to 24/7.
               | 
               | So for most people only the x86 CPUs provide an
               | acceptable performance for computations that use either
               | FP64 numbers or large integers.
        
               | mkesper wrote:
               | Things are changing on that front, too:
               | https://www.servethehome.com/supermicro-megadc-
               | ars-211m-nr-r...
        
               | adrian_b wrote:
               | The Ampere CPUs may be great for something like Web
               | servers, but they are pathetic at number crunching. The
               | same is true for the CPU cores designed by Arm, which are
               | used in the server CPUs of other cloud vendors.
        
           | wbl wrote:
           | Hindsight is 20/20. If higher clocks won out because
           | extractable IPC was lower Netburst was the right design.
        
             | giantrobot wrote:
             | Foresight (at the time) told you NetBurst was a dead end
             | though. AMD made a lot of sales from people avoiding
             | NetBurst, ignoring clock speeds and looking at actual
             | performance numbers.
             | 
             | NetBurst looked good on benchmarks; code with few/no
             | branches that fit in the L2 cache if not the L1 cache. On
             | real world code consisting almost entirely of branches and
             | pointer chasing the NetBurst chips performed horribly
             | compared to lower clocked Athlons.
             | 
             | Intel's promises of 5+ GHz chips got more laughable as the
             | line went on because they were already straining cooling
             | and power supply options at less than 3GHz.
        
               | wbl wrote:
               | Netburst's branch predictor choices survived. It was the
               | penalties that were a bad idea.
        
             | Earw0rm wrote:
             | The problem with Netburst was the clock speed wall. They
             | designed it with a view to continued doubling which has
             | been a trend up until then. It turns out once you go past
             | 3GHz improvements are much, much slower.
             | 
             | We hit 3GHz in 2003. If you go back ten years from that,
             | the top speed available was 66MHz, ten years before that
             | and it was 8MHz. Fast forward 20 years and we're just
             | barely scraping 6GHz.
        
               | Earw0rm wrote:
               | Doing the math - even a conservative estimate for 1983 to
               | 2003 is eight doublings.
               | 
               | That would give us a hypothetical Pentium 4 at 768GHz
               | today. Which, Netburst or no, would wipe the floor with
               | the fastest available multi-core chip.
               | 
               | While also putting out enough heat energy to keep a small
               | town in Northern Canada warm all winter long.
        
         | roenxi wrote:
         | I don't think the article did assume that. If you read between
         | the lines the writer might well believe Intel is beyond saving
         | no matter what Gelsinger does. Zero in on:
         | 
         | > The CEOs who got Intel into this mess were much longer than
         | Pat and a worse fit. Meanwhile, the board let most of his
         | predecessor's activities go unchecked as they sped through
         | disaster.
         | 
         | That really captures the spirit of the article. It is pointing
         | out that the people ultimately responsible for getting Intel
         | into a mess are still in charge and have started to flail. That
         | doesn't mean the writer thinks Gelsinger was going to be a
         | great CEO because he is technical. They think that the board is
         | terrible and there is evidence that it hasn't changed.
         | 
         | This behaviour by the board would be a common enough pattern in
         | both business and political failures. Something goes wrong, the
         | people in charge don't admit they made mistakes (or everyone
         | just assumes it is too late to recover) and retain power.
        
           | njtransit wrote:
           | The article focuses on the boards alleged ineptitude, not
           | about Gelsinger directly, but the article directly states
           | that Gelsinger was the best possible candidate:
           | 
           | > But the reality is he's the single best candidate for the
           | company.
           | 
           | However, directly before this, the author offers this:
           | 
           | > Meanwhile, Pat wanted to pursue the big, bold IFS bet, with
           | 100s of thousands of wafers, when the reality is just getting
           | 10s of thousands of wafers is a massive problem as is.
           | 
           | This sounds oddly reminiscent of people I've worked with in
           | the past. They have grand, pie-in-the-sky visions of what
           | something should be, but don't know how to quickly and
           | efficiently take the steps to get there.
        
         | BeetleB wrote:
         | > Personally, I've heard nothing but bad things from Intel
         | during Gelsinger's tenure. He had some lofty ideas,
         | 
         | I don't know if I can say he was doing a good or bad job - it's
         | really hard to say. But were there good things about him that
         | people say?
         | 
         | He was the first CEO to say Intel was underpaying. He promised
         | to raise pay, made a deal with the board to do so, and
         | delivered. Most people got something like a 20% pay boost.
         | Still not FAANG level, but compared to the prior CEOs who said
         | "We pay fair market rates"... yeah, he won points with a lot of
         | employees for that.
         | 
         | He quickly banned stock buybacks. Throughout his tenure he
         | focused on his Foundry plans and improving engineering
         | practices, at the cost of share value. His plan was "Let's fix
         | our fabs and our efficiency, get back to building world class
         | products, and the financials will take care of themselves". As
         | opposed to all his predecessors who did stock buybacks instead
         | of investing the money into the company.
         | 
         | He convinced the board to cut the dividend to a third of its
         | value - because Intel was paying triple the dividends that its
         | competitors paid.
         | 
         | No doubt many didn't like declining stocks, but no one can
         | argue he was trying to artificially prop up the share price.
         | His overall compensation was low.[1] He didn't earn any of his
         | performance based stocks, and didn't try to manipulate those
         | prices for personal gain. In the end he made a little over $10m
         | per year - that includes the severance pay and signing bonus.
         | 
         | He was fairly good with transparency. He wanted the world to
         | see the fab's financials when he knew they were poor. The point
         | was to give the world a real number that could be used as a
         | metric of how well Intel is doing. $8B loss this year, with the
         | hope of breaking even in the next few years.
         | 
         | This last thing is what probably got him fired because the
         | stock tanked after that (I don't know why - everyone knew it
         | was unprofitable...).
         | 
         | Declining revenues are due to Intel products not competing. How
         | much of that is Pat's fault - hard to say. Intel was making
         | poor products for a while, and partly due to a poor fab process
         | - which is precisely what Pat was trying to fix (5 nodes in 4
         | years is _unprecedented_ , and it looks like Intel will achieve
         | it). Lunar Lake was built on TSMC, and is a fairly decent
         | product. Overall, the gap between AMD and Intel has shrunk.
         | 
         | Finally, perhaps the reason people really hated him: The
         | layoffs. But as is often pointed out on HN, if you compare
         | Intel's headcount with comparable companies (AMD, Nvidia), you
         | can see Intel is really wasteful. The revenue per person is
         | much, much lower. You can compare just the Intel Products head
         | count (excluding the fabs). The layoffs had to happen. And
         | there have to be more if Intel wants to be competitive. It can
         | no longer command high margins.
         | 
         | So yeah, plenty hate him. But plenty do like him.
         | 
         | > but he clearly wasn't executing well with Intel's bread and
         | butter business.
         | 
         | Nor were the previous two CEOs.
         | 
         | [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pat-gelsinger-lost-
         | massive-14...
        
           | njtransit wrote:
           | These are all very interesting points. I'd like to add the
           | total flop of Arrow Lake. That's the type of thing the board
           | likely cares about.
        
             | BeetleB wrote:
             | One product won't sink a company or CEO. The failure to
             | capitalize on AI, though, is another matter.
        
           | Melatonic wrote:
           | Agree with all of this - lot of armchair experts in here but
           | the reality is we will not know how good he was until a few
           | years down the line
        
           | smaddox wrote:
           | > if you compare Intel's headcount with comparable companies
           | (AMD, Nvidia), you can see Intel is really wasteful
           | 
           | AMD and NVIDIA are fabless. They are not comparable. It takes
           | far more people to R&D a cutting-edge process node and run a
           | dozen fabs 24/7 365.25 than it takes to design cutting edge
           | chips.
        
             | BeetleB wrote:
             | > AMD and NVIDIA are fabless. They are not comparable.
             | 
             | Which is why I said:
             | 
             | > You can compare just the Intel Products head count
             | (excluding the fabs).
             | 
             | Both AMD and Nvidia have under 30K folks. Intel has what -
             | 115K employees? I can assure you that 85K of them are not
             | working in Foundry. TSMC, BTW, has 76K employees in case
             | you want to do a Foundry comparison. Anyway you slice it
             | (compare products or compare fabs), Intel is wasteful.
        
         | hulitu wrote:
         | > Management is all about delegation.
         | 
         | yes, but a manager who has no idea about his products, is a bad
         | manager. Sometimes the teams below compensate and this is not
         | visible, but, when the shit hits the fun, it becomes obvious.
        
         | adrian_b wrote:
         | I have followed Intel's products closely. While they suck
         | enough that there have passed more than 5 years since I have
         | bought for the last time Intel CPUs (but before that I had
         | spent a lot of money on Intel CPUs and other products), I have
         | not seen any problem that can be attributed directly to Pat
         | Gelsinger.
         | 
         | Unlike most companies, Intel publishes relatively detailed
         | roadmaps with years in advance.
         | 
         | Since Pat Gelsinger has become CEO, all those roadmaps have
         | been accomplished in time, even if the products have not been
         | as good as they could have been, due to things like low clock
         | frequencies for any new fabrication process at launch (but this
         | is a problem that has plagued Intel for the entirety of the
         | last 10 years) or high intercommunication latencies for the
         | first Intel multi-tile CPUs, like Sapphire Rapids and Arrow
         | Lake, which can be attributed to an unavoidable lack of
         | experience with such designs (because the former Intel
         | management has delayed for too many years the transition to
         | such designs, with jokes about the "glued" CPUs of the
         | competition).
         | 
         | According to the roadmaps published years ago, the recent years
         | have been intended as transitional years, with the first really
         | competitive Intel products being launched only in the second
         | half of 2025. Only then it would have been possible to judge
         | correctly whether Pat Gelsinger had done a good job or a bad
         | job as CEO.
         | 
         | As outsiders, we do not have enough information about what Pat
         | Gelsinger has done. The roadmaps have been reasonable, the main
         | thing that could be criticized is that there have been too many
         | intermediate steps before reaching desirable products. However,
         | it is likely that Intel could not have sustained financially a
         | more abrupt transition. Even with this slower transition that
         | has included the launch of many intermediate products intended
         | to avoid a collapse of the sales, the financial losses have
         | been high enough that they have been used as an excuse to eject
         | Pat Gelsinger.
         | 
         | It seems that Pat Gelsinger did not have the power to do a real
         | cleanup of the Intel managers, especially of those from the
         | fabs. For years many of those managers must have lied
         | continuously both to other Intel divisions and in the public
         | presentations. There is no public information that any of those
         | managers have suffered adequate consequences for their actions.
         | 
         | Also, it does not seem that he has succeeded to improve the
         | internal cooperation between various Intel divisions. Some
         | internal competition is good, but withholding information and
         | lack of cooperation is bad. At Intel, too many products appear
         | to have been developed independently by different teams,
         | instead of all teams sharing some common designs as a base for
         | their products.
        
       | kk032 wrote:
       | In their defense its a complex world. Its easy to focus on people
       | and forget about how complex the environment they operate in has
       | become. And the complexity is increasing not decreasing.
       | 
       | Google C-Suite turnover rates and the downward trend they have
       | been on for the last few decades. In Tech and Finance C-Suite its
       | super steep. The famous ones are outliers and mostly figure
       | heads. Behind the scenes there is constant chaotic churn.
        
         | danielmarkbruce wrote:
         | Yeah and this space is about as complex as it gets. That being
         | said, they have screwed a lot of things up. But even if they
         | executed perfectly they might be in approximately the same
         | spot.
        
       | rvba wrote:
       | Working at Boeing, GE... should be like a kiss of death -
       | permanent ban on any work related to shareholder value
        
         | bdangubic wrote:
         | it is a publicly-traded company though, and if they are not
         | working towards increasing shareholder value the investors will
         | bolt and then how are you gonna pay your bills? :)
         | 
         | nationalizing might be a way but the government will run it and
         | that always works out...
        
           | rvba wrote:
           | Looks like they maximize short term with various snake oil
           | tactics, but then the company dies long term.
           | 
           | For me it has nothing to do with creating value, it is more
           | like putting putting lipstick on a pig.
           | 
           | Instead of actually fixing and building things.
        
         | LarsDu88 wrote:
         | Intel should have someone like Jim Keller on the board. Maybe
         | even software folks like Chris Lattner. Not Boeing, GE, merger
         | and acquisition clowns.
        
           | jiggawatts wrote:
           | He was there in 2020!
           | 
           | He left after something like 3 months because he couldn't get
           | buy-in for his ideas from senior management, most probably
           | the board of directors: https://www.reddit.com/r/intel/commen
           | ts/z3set6/jim_keller_ap...
        
             | sgerenser wrote:
             | It was a bit more than 3 months: According to Wikipedia,
             | between April of 2018 and June of 2020. Him not getting
             | buy-in for his ideas though does appear to be one of the
             | reasons he left.
        
           | consumer451 wrote:
           | Clowns indeed. The only investment Boeing and Intel board
           | members know how to execute is the ole' C-suite self-serving
           | stock buyback.
           | 
           | Intel is over 100B in the last 30 years.
           | 
           | Boeing bought back 3x what it would have cost to develop the
           | next-gen 737 in very recent history.
           | 
           | Clowns with no shame, and apparently no repercussions.
        
       | airstrike wrote:
       | After almost a decade advising on large cap M&A in Wall Street,
       | my biggest takeaway is that activist investors play a fundamental
       | role in capital markets. I think a lot of the hate they get is
       | fabricated by the status quo in PR wars. If I were considering
       | going back to M&A, that gig would be at the top of my list.
       | 
       | I'm honestly surprised we haven't seen activists clamoring for
       | this board to be replaced. Maybe it's too late for Intel and
       | nobody has the stomach and stamina to try to turn it around when
       | there's easier money to be made in a very favorable environment.
       | Or maybe it's too early and an activist is indeed slowly buying
       | up a position but hasn't hit the threshold after which they must
       | disclose their stake.
        
         | AtlasBarfed wrote:
         | I have been a consistent critic of Intel on here.
         | 
         | But a company like Intel can't be spun up/replaced on anything
         | less than even more subsidies and probably 10 years of
         | nondelivery/noncompetitiveness. A chip foundry and chip design
         | of this level takes a long time to reach competence. Hell, if
         | you are 1 generation behind status quo, Intel shows it can take
         | 3 years to catch up, if then.
         | 
         | This company isn't a struggling retailer in a sea of retailers
         | (Sears) or some rando restaurant chain selling potato skins,
         | blooming onions, and nachos (TGIFridays).
         | 
         | This is a top-line chip fabricator, in a geopolitical
         | environment where supply lines/shipping lines are under threat
         | in the Pacific, demographic collapses in China, Japan, and
         | South Korea are underway, and a president that wants to start a
         | tariff war.
         | 
         | National security concerns underline Intels importance. It
         | isn't some chopshop private equity spreadsheet play. If you
         | split it you need functional mission-based companies.
         | 
         | Intel has something like a dozen fabs. I would subdivide those
         | into the lines of business their process nodes can serve, from
         | embedded / industrial stuff, board chipsets, whatever.
         | 
         | Identify the process nodes desperately needed for economic
         | protection from a hostile/collapsing China (same thing
         | basically in economic impact). We need state of the art, so the
         | latest and n-1 fabs get wrapped up, but we likely need a
         | boatload of second and third tier node production as well.
         | 
         | I think Intel's fabs can be split in the n-2 and n-3 nodes into
         | two competing companies, because the US doesn't need
         | monopolies, it needs competition, and that will be the path to
         | far better utilization of subsidies and speeding up production
         | independence from the Asian rim.
         | 
         | I cannot believe Intel has failed at integrated graphics for so
         | long. I'd like a competitor to NVidia besides AMD.
         | 
         | Setting up functional subsidiaries like this will absolutely
         | not happen with private equity chopshops, all run by the same
         | financial illusionists that have crushed Intel and Boeing.
         | 
         | But that's not how the oligarchy works. It'll be something that
         | maximizes concentration of the subsidy check by the same
         | incompetents that "manage" Intel right now, and the subsidy
         | will be squandered.
         | 
         | I cannot believe a Boeing fuckhead is now the interim CEO.
         | Nothing will go well, these people are survivalist lizards that
         | care about their careers and stock options and parachutes. That
         | Boeing guy likely engineered the ousting, he's a slimy survivor
         | of corporate Machiavellianism.
         | 
         | I invite him to prove me wrong, the country needs it.
        
           | airstrike wrote:
           | The activist playbook isn't limited to chopping up shops or
           | any subset of the PE playbook.
           | 
           | Intel stock is likely so undervalued right now that an
           | activist can just come in, throw a fight deck at the board,
           | show to the market that they will put _some_ better board in
           | charge (shouldn't be too hard), get the votes they need,
           | replace the board (partially), see the stock rally (pick a
           | number) 20% on improved sentiment and expectations, gradually
           | unwind the position and move on.
        
           | meiraleal wrote:
           | That's a very romantic way to describe a corporation that was
           | sucked dry by greedy men in suits.
        
           | colechristensen wrote:
           | I feel like Intel was ahead for a very long time and perhaps
           | intentionally coasting and then suddenly in the span of a few
           | years they went from barely any competition to losing best in
           | class in compute to three separate competitors. AMD having
           | great consumer processors and now beating in sales in data
           | centers, Apple having without a doubt the best consumer
           | processor, NVIDIA completely owning the machine learning
           | compute market which is now enormous.
           | 
           | I think beat case is NVIDIA buys Intel and spins off some of
           | the less mainline business units.
           | 
           | In dire straights I don't think the government would allow
           | Intel to fall to vultures and instead would compel them to
           | continue operating at any loss rate and then if they failed
           | to avoid bankruptcy nationalize them in much the same way as
           | AIG or General Motors for long term reorganization.
        
             | hulitu wrote:
             | > , Apple having without a doubt the best consumer
             | processor
             | 
             | too bad it doesn't run (properly) other OS. than Apple's
        
               | andreasmetsala wrote:
               | Linux support seems to be getting there. Windows support
               | is on Microsoft to deliver.
        
             | Panzer04 wrote:
             | Literally all that happened is Intel lost the fab lead and
             | then lost fab parity. Their CPUs were, and are, still
             | competitive with AMD chips, or at least close enough that
             | they can just adjust prices to make up the difference.
             | 
             | Fabs are extremely expensive, and an uncompetitive fab is
             | literally just a pit in which you toss money. That's
             | Intel's current problem.
        
               | throwaway2037 wrote:
               | > uncompetitive fab
               | 
               | I have seen this phrase used a few times here. Is there
               | such a thing? Sure, a fab can be old and produce chips
               | with larger transistor sizes, but there isn't a lack of
               | demand. Only a tiny fraction of ICs need the latest
               | transistor sizes.
               | 
               | To be clear, do you any inside information / career
               | experience that you _know_ that existing Intel fabs are
               | losing money? I have not read any such reports in media.
               | 
               | As a counterpoint, Europe and Japan are no longer cutting
               | edge in their fabs, but continue to produce many ICs for
               | industry.
        
               | adrian_b wrote:
               | Intel's financial reports show their fabs losing billions
               | every quarter.
               | 
               | Nevertheless, it is hard to know how real are these
               | numbers, because the prices charged by the Intel fabs for
               | making Intel CPUs are set internally, so they could be
               | manipulated to move all losses on the fabs from the
               | consumer and server product divisions.
               | 
               | Moreover, for the latest Intel fabrication process for
               | which anything is known, i.e. Intel 4, which is used for
               | making the CPU tiles in the Meteor Lake CPUs, it is known
               | that the fabrication yields have been much less than
               | desirable, which had two outcomes, both less profit
               | margins when selling Meteor Lake and the inability to
               | produce as many Meteor Lake CPUs as they could have sold.
               | Both effects have increased the financial losses suffered
               | by Intel during 2024.
               | 
               | In general, "uncompetitive fab" can mean two things.
               | Either there are things that the fab cannot do at all or
               | the fab has too low fabrication yields at the things that
               | it can do.
               | 
               | The Intel fabs are in the second situation. They can do
               | about the same things that TSMC can do, but at much lower
               | fabrication yields, which means much higher production
               | costs. High production costs means low profits and Intel
               | is a company that has been habituated to have huge
               | profits, so it cannot manage well the case when its
               | profit margins are very thin.
        
               | spacemanspiff01 wrote:
               | But is this an issue of them only building their own
               | chips?
               | 
               | (Speaking of which, what does Intel do with old fabs for
               | the past 20 years after moving to a new node?)
        
               | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
               | > Only a tiny fraction of ICs need the latest transistor
               | sizes.
               | 
               | The problem is that the latest transistor sizes are the
               | ones that have profit margins. 90% of TSMCs chips aren't
               | on EUV processes, but 50% of their profits come from EUV.
               | If you don't have leading (or close to leading)
               | processes, you're completely shut out of the phone,
               | laptop, server, and GPU market. Intel could survive like
               | that, but it would involve laying off ~90% of their staff
               | and exiting all of their major markets.
        
           | danielovichdk wrote:
           | Collapsing China? I read this is as a big no clue rant.
        
             | shortrounddev2 wrote:
             | China's demographics are beginning to look bad and their
             | sclerotic economy is brewing for civil unrest
        
               | lnsru wrote:
               | Many many unrest cases showed, that with proper
               | oppression methods the country can go for decades
               | afterwards. Gulags and closed psychiatric clinics were
               | full of unstable elements trying to destabilize
               | countries. And that was possible without modern
               | observation methods.
        
               | meiraleal wrote:
               | you know that The United States leads the world in total
               | number of people incarcerated, right? the consumerist
               | Gulag isn't less gulag than the soviet one.
        
               | shortrounddev2 wrote:
               | It actually is
        
             | AtlasBarfed wrote:
             | China has four brewing issues:
             | 
             | Demographic cliff on a scale not seen: yes Japan is going
             | through one now, but China's is simply unprecedented in the
             | sheer numbers
             | 
             | Authoritarianism: China is rolling back free market
             | reforms, centralizing power under Xi
             | 
             | Finance: China has a real estate and debt bubble at the
             | regional government level.
             | 
             | War and aggression: China US relations are approaching cold
             | war levels and a Taiwan invasion seems likely. Four years
             | of trade war is imminent.
             | 
             | Depending how it plays out, any one of these is trouble for
             | offshore manufacturing in China. I suppose collapse is a
             | strong word, but it is stupid to rely on Chinese production
             | both for a company and in terms of national security.
             | 
             | Zeigan has been singing this tune for a decade, but
             | recently there are many other geopolitical talks I've seen
             | repeating each or all of the four issues I've listed above,
             | and the demographics aspect is inevitable at a minimum.
        
               | chithanh wrote:
               | The "China collapse" claim is indeed not new, and it is
               | as wrong as ever.
               | 
               | The demographic situation is manageable, especially given
               | how the generation entering retirement are factory
               | workers, who are being replaced by automation on a
               | massive scale. The generation which enters the labor
               | market has a much higher number of college degrees.
               | 
               | Real estate bubble doesn't concern most Chinese citizens,
               | but only those who used it to speculate, despite being
               | warned by Xi not to[1]. If you own a house for living
               | inside, you don't need to care if its resale value goes
               | up or down. Still, deflating the housing bubble was
               | painful, but China managed to grow the economy through
               | this anyway.
               | 
               | About war, I don't think so, at least not in the next 4
               | years. Trump and several Republican leaders made it clear
               | already that they don't want to defend Taiwan, so the
               | Taiwanese government will likely refrain from things
               | which could trigger armed conflict. Even if things
               | escalated, a naval blockade would be more likely, and the
               | US public largely doesn't support entering into direct
               | conflict over that[2].
               | 
               | [1] https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2116621/what-
               | president...
               | 
               | [2] https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-
               | survey/tai...
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | > Still, deflating the housing bubble was painful, but
               | China managed to grow the economy through this anyway.
               | 
               | China hasn't deflated its housing bubble yet. Yes, real
               | estate turn over has basically ground to a standstill,
               | but that doesn't mean many have been forced to take a
               | loss yet. The reckoning still hasn't come, and should
               | look something like a larger Japan property bubble pop
               | when it happens.
               | 
               | Still, the US is screwed since China is basically going
               | to own automation via its current investments (along with
               | investments in EVs, green energy, and HSR). If they can
               | figure out their chip and jet turbine problems (still not
               | solved, they can't make fast chips economically yet, or
               | even expensive ones without western equipment), they have
               | everything in the bag, so to speak.
        
           | huijzer wrote:
           | I would politely argue against the word "collapse". It's
           | overly dramatic. It makes no sense when talking about
           | societies. Peter Zeihan uses the word a lot but that doesn't
           | mean it's correct. Peter just knows that fear sells. But what
           | does it mean for a society to collapse? One day all is fine
           | and the next day it is not? "Downward spiral" seems more
           | appropriate.
        
             | jackvalentine wrote:
             | When a bridge collapses it doesn't happen in one go - first
             | a couple of bits are rusty, some foundations are crumbling
             | and not tended to. Then a couple of supports fall off but
             | it's fine because it's summer. Then winter comes with the
             | extra load than entails, snow, rain.
             | 
             | It's fine, the bridge remains up but now one of the
             | remaining supports is working back and forth every time a
             | car goes over it. One day a heavy truck goes over it.
             | 
             | One day the collapse is apparent to us all, and complete.
             | But it began long ago when maintenance was neglected.
             | 
             | Society is like that.
        
               | huijzer wrote:
               | Could you give a clear example from history? Usually it
               | isn't clear. For example, historians are still not in
               | agreement about when the Roman empire ended [1].
               | 
               | [1]: https://www.thoughtco.com/fall-of-rome-short-
               | timeline-121196
        
               | scandox wrote:
               | > One day the collapse is apparent to us all, and
               | complete.
               | 
               | This only happens in historical retrospect. The sacking
               | of Rome in 476 theoretically marked the collapse of The
               | Roman Empire in Western Europe but nonetheless people all
               | over Europe continued to live in a Roman style and think
               | of themselves as citizens of the Roman Empire for a very
               | long time.
               | 
               | We won't know when our society has collapsed. Our grand
               | children may.
        
               | timschmidt wrote:
               | I generally agree, however a counterpoint is that modern
               | technology has made the world smaller and consequences
               | arrive faster. No longer does news travel at the speed of
               | a mule drawn cart, now it happens at a significant
               | fraction of the speed of light.
        
               | w10-1 wrote:
               | The analogy to Rome is inapt.
               | 
               | We're highly dependent on external capital, technologies,
               | materials, and resources -- not to mention goodwill
               | enabling trade and avoiding social chaos. All of these
               | can and do change in a matter of months, and the speed of
               | the collapse can be amplified by smart individuals making
               | self-interested decisions, and even more by bad actors
               | working in concert for strategic reasons.
        
           | hulitu wrote:
           | > because the US doesn't need monopolies
           | 
           | They seem to love them very much, though. (Microsoft, Google,
           | Apple, Facebook)
        
             | 7speter wrote:
             | Uhhh... most of the companies you listed compete with
             | eachother?
        
               | passwordoops wrote:
               | Making it an oligopoly... Not much better
        
           | Dalewyn wrote:
           | >a company like Intel can't be spun up/replaced on anything
           | less than even more subsidies and probably 10 years of
           | nondelivery/noncompetitiveness.
           | 
           | As a taxpayer I sincerely couldn't care less, I'm fucking
           | tired of seeing my tax dollars wasted on bailouts and
           | subsidies for nothing. If we absolutely must use tax dollars
           | on Intel at this point, I have a hardline requirement:
           | Nationalize them. I want fucking tangible assets, things of
           | fucking value for my tax dollars spent. I want them to become
           | Public Property if they want to spend Public Money. I want
           | them answering to the accountability of the Constitution and
           | the electorate for wanting my tax dollars so desperately.
           | 
           | >This is a top-line chip fabricator,
           | 
           | No, they are not. If they were, none of us would be having
           | this conversation.
           | 
           | >National security concerns underline Intels importance.
           | 
           | No, it is not. Not when we (Intel) are already defeated and
           | the battle decided. Not when allies (South Korea, Israel,
           | Germany/EU, et al.) have actual top-line silicon production.
           | Also see next.
           | 
           | >Identify the process nodes desperately needed for economic
           | protection ... We need state of the art,
           | 
           | No, we do not. Most of the country, let alone the world,
           | still runs on 50+ year old silicon technology. Not even the
           | military uses "state of the art" silicon, they're almost
           | always at least 10 to 20 years back from the bleeding edge if
           | not more.
           | 
           | As for the silicon we all actually need and use? We can
           | produce plenty of them. See: Texas Instruments (includes
           | former National Semiconductor), Analog Devices, Onsemi
           | (includes former Fairchild Semiconductor), and more.
           | 
           | No, we _do not need_ Intel for national security, nor even
           | economic prosperity for that matter. The American
           | semiconductor industry is much more massive than Nvidia, AMD,
           | and Intel.
           | 
           | >I cannot believe Intel has failed at integrated graphics for
           | so long.
           | 
           | Intel's iGPUs have been and are the best iGPUs on the market.
           | They almost always work everywhere everytime for all
           | practical purposes. It's their discrete GPUs which have been
           | and always were disappointing, I'm not holding my breath that
           | Battlemage can defy history.
        
         | crowcroft wrote:
         | The cycles are so long that I think it's hard for activists to
         | get in, set a new course and exit with a profit.
         | 
         | Having said that the stock is so low at this point something
         | will probably happen. I think private equity taking it private
         | for 5-10 years would let the company work through a long term
         | turn around.
         | 
         | Similar to what's happened with Yahoo. PE could buy it, spin
         | out/sell the most distracting adjacent parts of the business,
         | and then focus the core business over the next five years
         | without needing to publicly deliver quarterly updates.
         | 
         | It would be a massive PE deal, but not outside the realms of
         | possibility, especially if the stock drops a few more percent.
        
       | llsf wrote:
       | Is it time for Elon Musk to step in, or is it too early ?
       | 
       | Now with the CHIPs money coming in, it might be the right time...
        
         | claaams wrote:
         | By asking musk to step in are you talking about having him make
         | the company worth 10% of what it's worth now?
        
           | llsf wrote:
           | Not worrying about the worth of the company as much, but more
           | to salvage the chip maker expertise that Intel still has
           | (Intel has been in several rounds of layoffs, including
           | 15,000 in 2024).
           | 
           | According to the article, splitting Intel would be good
           | (short term) for the shareholders, bad long term, and bad for
           | the country.
           | 
           | Intel is still a great asset, but it looks like it is losing
           | its appeal as time passes. CEO of Intel is deemed to be a
           | very challenging position. The board does not seem to know
           | how to turn the ship around.
           | 
           | I could see Musk steering that ship. It is technically
           | challenging (Musk seems to thrive in those environments), and
           | it could even benefit the other Musk companies to some extent
           | (XAi, Tesla and even maybe SpaceX).
           | 
           | Intel market cap is 94.713B (AMD is 233B, ARM Holdings is
           | 144B... not mentioning NVIDIA), so about twice what Musk paid
           | for Twitter. But if Musk sets his view on Intel, he would not
           | have a hard time to finance the purchase. Actually, he could
           | wait a bit more as the stock can fall even more (today, Intel
           | stock is at the price of Dec. 1996).
           | 
           | This is armchair talking/joke, and it would be one more crazy
           | thing on the 2024 bingo card, but from all the crazy things
           | we have seen recently, Musk taking over Intel would look
           | quite normal in comparison.
        
             | BobbyTables2 wrote:
             | We're going to need a bigger bingo card for 2025...
        
             | impossiblefork wrote:
             | Maybe if he owned the whole thing and could run it as he
             | liked, without having to care about the stock price or
             | paying money to investors, but personally I don't think
             | anyone can do it while also satisfying the stock market.
             | 
             | I'm not sure Musk is especially qualified either, except
             | that he could afford it.
        
         | aaronbrethorst wrote:
         | You're right. Intel makes too many woke CPUs.
        
         | LarsDu88 wrote:
         | I don't think Intel manufactures enough transgender chips to
         | make Musk care about buying it
        
         | bell-cot wrote:
         | Interesting idea. And with Musk's ties to Trump, he doesn't
         | need to buy Intel himself. The shake-up doesn't need to fit
         | stereotypes, nor (with the current SCOTUS) satisfy legal
         | niceties. If Musk told Trump "great countries make their own
         | chips", the national security establishment echoed that, and
         | Pat wound up in charge of Intel's fabs, with "Make Great Chips"
         | for his marching orders...could Pat make that work out? It
         | certainly would be interesting.
        
           | llsf wrote:
           | Yes, Pat could come back and take care of IFS, with this time
           | a supporting CEO/board. With the China/Taiwan tensions, it
           | might be a good move for the US to not let Intel slip
           | further, and stir that ship in the right direction. Musk
           | could justify the move to help his AI ventures (XAi, Tesla
           | FSD, robot, etc.)
        
       | nonrandomstring wrote:
       | Vote me down to the 9th circle of hell, but I find the article is
       | simply off with the fairies. What do boards, directors,
       | companies, capital, investors or any of the self-important suit-
       | wearing dog and pony show have to do with what's happening to
       | Intel?
       | 
       | Intel is dying because it simply cannot bring itself to make a
       | product that people want instead of the things it _thinks_ people
       | want [0].That 's its fundamental life-preserving responsibility
       | to itself. Sure, semiconductor making is very cut-off from the
       | reality of what it makes tech _for_. But mindless progress for
       | the sake of progress? It 's a headless chicken running about the
       | farmyard. The basics of business still apply. Make stuff people
       | ask you for.
       | 
       | [0]
       | https://techrights.org/n/2024/12/04/Technology_rights_or_res...
        
         | 9cb14c1ec0 wrote:
         | > Intel is dying because it simply cannot bring itself to make
         | a product that people want instead of the things it thinks
         | people want [0].
         | 
         | Not sure that the link adequately makes its case. The number of
         | people that actually care about Intel Management Engine is
         | extremely small. Intel's real problem is that their products
         | have struggled to be competitive in the marketplace on a price
         | and performance level.
        
           | hakfoo wrote:
           | I could see a case for "we'll sell a few narrow SKUs of non-
           | ME products for an audience that demands it" -- assuming
           | there are some people who will vote with their pockets for
           | it. It's probably up there with some of the other corner-
           | cases in their product matrix.
           | 
           | But I agree, that's noise. There are much bigger problems
           | with their product line:
           | 
           | * Adding and removing features (especially AVX, but also the
           | whole market-segmentation nonsense with ECC memory) * The
           | marginal and in some cases negative generation-over-
           | generation performance boosts. * The unlocked wattage
           | situation which screams "we're pushing an end-of-the-rope
           | product that we can only get to decent clocks by feeding it
           | an entire mains circuit". (See: FX-9590, Pentium 4 Extreme
           | Edition)
           | 
           | Intel might be able to say "Today's Glysophate Lake CPU is
           | clearly better than the Haswell you bought 10 years ago", but
           | there will be a lot of mumbling if you ask "how much better
           | is it than last year's Paraquat Lake". That doesn't inspire
           | confidence, especially when they have traditionally been the
           | premium brand.
        
           | amluto wrote:
           | > The number of people that actually care about Intel
           | Management Engine is extremely small.
           | 
           | I think this sentence, in isolation, actually kind of nails
           | the problem. I realize this isn't what you and the article
           | you're replying to have in mind, but: no one cares enough
           | about ME _to buy it_. After years of development, Intel has a
           | solution to server management (and client management?) that
           | is arguably technically superior to the crappy, power hungry
           | chips from ASPEED and the management stacks from the likes of
           | Dell and HPE that, until very recently, were unbelievably
           | bad.
           | 
           | But Intel completely failed to execute! ME should have been a
           | headline feature, made friendly to the point where people
           | would buy Intel systems _because of ME_. Anyone considering
           | AMD or Ampere or POWER would be annoyed because their
           | organization heavily used ME and Intel's competitors didn't
           | have it!
           | 
           | But instead, Intel hid the good parts (iAMT) behind annoying
           | SKUs, obnoxious and secretive software and weird proprietary
           | lock-ins. And the result is: no one cares about ME!
           | 
           | (Intel has messed up most of its recent features in almost
           | exactly the same way.)
        
             | BobbyTables2 wrote:
             | Fully agree -- always thought the same way.
             | 
             | Saw AMT once about 15 years ago -- available for free on an
             | Intel banded desktop motherboard.
             | 
             | Now I can't even pay money to use it on my modern PCs...
        
             | nonrandomstring wrote:
             | This is a good point that I cannot disagree with. One more
             | round in the magazine of the Intel footgun. Lack of
             | openness and engagement with customers cuts both ways. The
             | ME tech is great for a market segment of industrial
             | datacentres. If those buyers chose to prioritise energy and
             | management over security, then hurrah to whatever works for
             | them.
             | 
             | But as you say, Intel hid it away. Like a guilty secret.
             | They somehow forgot to tell even their most Evil(tm)
             | customers about the Evil Inside(tm). Which is jolly
             | suspicious. And they've hidden away other "features" that
             | trash security. It may be the number of people who
             | "actually care about Intel Management Engine is extremely
             | small", but those who do matter and they make decisions.
             | Yes performance is important but security factors are going
             | to be gaining more and more influence now.
             | 
             | So Intel were told time and time again that people want
             | legible, well documented products with no surprises, and
             | they ignored that.
        
           | throwawaythekey wrote:
           | > Intel's real problem is that their products have struggled
           | to be competitive in the marketplace on a price and
           | performance level.
           | 
           | That's not super true. AMD has had good outlier performance
           | in gaming with the X3Ds for a while, but for regular use
           | something like a 13400f has been as good of a deal as any AMD
           | chip.
           | 
           | Arrow lake seems to have definitely made the situation worse
           | for intel though.
        
             | HelloNurse wrote:
             | For most people. "regular use" (and "gaming") is the
             | expectation that the CPU doesn't self-destruct.
             | 
             | Regaining the faith of users will take years if the best
             | Intel has to say is "this SKU is unaffected by this flaw";
             | less years if they openly switch to more trusted TSMC
             | processes and/or ARM designs.
        
           | BlueTemplar wrote:
           | If it was only IME...
           | 
           | But AMD has their own version with the PSP.
           | 
           | So we're stuck on Bulldozer hoping for Risc-V or something to
           | mature enough before Bulldozer is completely obsolete.
           | 
           | (With Apple obviously never having been an option to start
           | with, and Microsoft keeping to push for the likes of TPM and
           | Pluton, thankfully still optional for now.)
        
         | LarsDu88 wrote:
         | You do realize that it takes at least 5 years for new products
         | to come to fruition in semi right? And Intel brought GPUs to
         | market under Gelsinger's tenure.
         | 
         | This isn't some software startup that just pivots from widget A
         | to widget B or some ad campaign
         | 
         | Even Tesla took like 5 years from announcement (after several
         | years of developing a prototype BEFORE the announcement) to
         | bringing the Cybertruck to market, and unlike cars, you need to
         | mostly build the entire assembly line from scratch for new
         | nodes every few years.
         | 
         | It will be at least 3 years before we even see the outcome of
         | decisions Gelsinger made at the beginning of his tenure.
        
           | sounds wrote:
           | Grandparent said:
           | 
           | > it simply cannot bring itself to make a product that people
           | want
           | 
           | To which you responded:
           | 
           | > You do realize that it takes at least 5 years
           | 
           | Intel could lower the price on their HEDT chips tomorrow.
           | 
           | Intel could enable AVX-512 tomorrow.
           | 
           | Intel could more fully open up their fabs to other companies
           | tomorrow.
           | 
           | Intel could publicly commit to producing silicon with no
           | Management Engine tomorrow.
           | 
           | What would you do, if you were Intel CEO?
        
             | spoaceman7777 wrote:
             | > Intel could enable AVX-512 tomorrow.
             | 
             | They can't just enable AVX-512 on their chips that include
             | both performance and efficiency cores, because it's only
             | present on the perf cores.
             | 
             | > Intel could more fully open up their fabs to other
             | companies tomorrow.
             | 
             | Their fabs are open to other companies. they have multiple
             | customers already signed on to make their chips on
             | 18A/1.8nm process that enters mass production next year,
             | including Amazon and the DoD.
             | 
             | > Intel could publicly commit to producing silicon with no
             | Management Engine tomorrow.
             | 
             | Do real people actually care about the presence or absence
             | of the IME to such a degree that it would be worth
             | redesigning a bunch of their products and greatly
             | increasing the number of individual SKUs?
             | 
             | ... and, your first point "Intel could lower the price on
             | their HEDT chips tomorrow". Well.. they could I suppose?
             | They are pretty irrelevant when it comes to HEDT chips
             | anyway though considering how crazy Threadrippers are.
             | Would they really sell more of them if they knocked a
             | couple hundred off their 2000/3000 lines? probably not.
             | they're all under 5GHz anyway.
        
         | AtlasBarfed wrote:
         | Because if the rot is this bad at the top, imagine what it's
         | like below it.
         | 
         | The board smacks of people that spend their careers making and
         | defending their career positions, rather than actually doing
         | something or achieving something. These are the top dogs of
         | middle management Machiavellis.
         | 
         | Underneath them is just a bunch of lackeys built on loyalty,
         | not competence. The talent has been chased out. The talent that
         | remains in engineering is likely just counting days to
         | retirement or a buyout package.
        
       | etempleton wrote:
       | The board's lack of technical or even product expertise struck me
       | when it was announced Gelsinger would abruptly retire. They don't
       | have the chops to be the wartime board Intel needs. They likely
       | have no idea if Gelsinger was on the right path or chasing a
       | dream. I believe Gelsinger was the right person for the job, but
       | the board wasn't and isn't. The board would have had to approve
       | of his plans. They should have known what they were signing up
       | for.
       | 
       | For Gelsinger's part he was probably too cavalier with finances
       | and market sentiment to ever sustain any political capital.
        
         | TheCondor wrote:
         | It's too late. It was too late 18 months ago. Nvidia is over
         | 30x bigger. Qualcomm is 2x, AMD is 2x. Intel needs a world
         | beater, like tomorrow. Qualcomm offered to buy them, no idea
         | what the terms are but he'd have to beat those terms, right?
         | That had to be the death blow.
         | 
         | AMD has already shipped ARM parts in the recentish time frame
         | (Opteron A1100) there are rumors that they have internal arm
         | projects that can be ready quickly. All the other part makers
         | are all in with ARM. Intel is on an island. Throw the
         | customization that MS and AWS are doing, unless they have
         | something magical, tomorrow, it's just hard to see.
        
           | tw04 wrote:
           | > All the other part makers are all in with ARM. Intel is on
           | an island.
           | 
           | Intel also has an ARM architecture license... they sold
           | Marvell the Xscale assets, but retained rights to produce ARM
           | chips should they desire to do so in the future.
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/XScale
        
             | Earw0rm wrote:
             | Sure, but then they're competing with everyone else in a
             | fair fight. Which means either taking a huge hit on
             | margins, or having a product with enough of a performance
             | delta to justify prices somewhere near today's.
             | 
             | The problem isn't so much x64 vs ARM but that, more
             | broadly, high-performance CPUs are becoming commoditised.
        
               | bfrog wrote:
               | Which is why Pat was on the right track imho with
               | foundry. It's too bad he won't have the tenure needed to
               | see the outcome of 18a, good or bad.
               | 
               | Even Arm is tenuous at best with risc-v right on its
               | heels.
        
           | nwiswell wrote:
           | > It's too late. It was too late 18 months ago. Nvidia is
           | over 30x bigger. Qualcomm is 2x, AMD is 2x.
           | 
           | AMD came back from odds much longer than this. At its nadir,
           | AMD's market cap was about a billion. A billion! Jensen's
           | jacket collection is worth more than that.
           | 
           | Anyway, it's not looking good for Intel but it's certainly
           | not "too late".
        
             | swifthesitation wrote:
             | > nadir
             | 
             | Great word, TIL.
        
             | TheCondor wrote:
             | If they can dominate with process, no it's not too late. If
             | their process is on par with TSMC? I don't know. Like I
             | said, they need a world beater else margins erode
             | dramatically. They have assets, they have value and Intel
             | has done it again and again for decades but unless there is
             | something that is a tier better than anything else margins
             | drop and they just forced their "technical CEO" out.
             | 
             | They have had ultra success in the past, I don't see
             | anything on the roadmap to suggest a repeat of that, there
             | is a lot of institutional memory of that success. With a
             | long term plan, a board that is knows it's going to be a
             | journey and the CHIPS money, there is a story, make X86S a
             | reality... I think there will be incredible pressure to cut
             | and sell it though. If the new fabrication technology is
             | only as good as the competition, I think that makes Intel
             | an even more attractive take over target for the fabless
             | giants
        
           | bsder wrote:
           | > It's too late.
           | 
           | Hardly.
           | 
           | Intel has fabs and, as we found out from Covid, we don't have
           | capacity in old nodes _either_. Intel can very much still
           | print money.
           | 
           | Fabless companies are really cool--until shit hits the fan
           | and nobody will run your chips anymore--but, hey, who cares,
           | it's not like that ever happens, right? I mean you'd have to
           | get an enemy invasion or terrorist bombing or tsunami or
           | earthquake or fire in the fab line or global pandemic--and,
           | pfft, how common are those, really?
           | 
           | All it takes is some high-level dumbass trying to curry favor
           | with Pooh Bear over Taiwan and suddenly Nvidia, Qualcomm,
           | Apple, etc. have a net value of _zero_ for the forseeable
           | future.
           | 
           | But, hey, it's _super_ more profitable to not actually have
           | all that icky manufacturing. Ewwwwwww.
        
             | Panzer04 wrote:
             | Yup. Fabless is also totally dependant on churning out good
             | designs. Intel's current gen chips are fine, compared to
             | AMDs. Not great, not terrible, just competitive.
             | 
             | The reason Intel are worth less is because investors are
             | actually assigning negative value to their fabs - until
             | they see Intel churning out advanced chips again it's just
             | a money pit.
        
               | immibis wrote:
               | Are AMD chips wearing out after a few years?
        
               | rvba wrote:
               | They arent fine.
               | 
               | Intel seems to be cutting corners to be faster what made
               | their tech full of security issues. Now those issues are
               | fixed by microcode.. and chips become less efficient.
               | 
               | They also oxidize?
        
             | mnau wrote:
             | > suddenly Nvidia, Qualcomm, Apple, etc. have a net value
             | of zero for the forseeable future.
             | 
             | That is an exaggeration. There is still Samsung, Nvidia
             | even fabbed there few years back. It's worse than TSMC, but
             | it's not like Intel is the only alternative.
        
               | 7speter wrote:
               | Thats a great idea until China and NK launch a
               | coordinated attack on both Taiwan and South Korea
        
               | selimthegrim wrote:
               | Samsung is in TX too
        
               | mnau wrote:
               | We should definitely be prepared when China attacks USA.
               | Supersonic missiles to the fabs, ASML, Tel facilities
               | too.
               | 
               | Maybe we should make fabs on moon, just as an insurance.
               | 
               | That's not a joke BTW. If China attacks both SK and TW,
               | that's a war with US and this will happen. Fabs in USA
               | will be a very valid military target.
        
               | ls612 wrote:
               | In a pacific escalation scenario, which I don't think is
               | farfetched in the next decade, the CONUS would still be
               | safe at least short of nuclear exchange.
        
             | mrweasel wrote:
             | > All it takes is some high-level dumbass trying to curry
             | favor with Pooh Bear over Taiwan
             | 
             | Or just one large earthquake to disrupt production for a
             | few months. I'm sure that TSMC has planed for earthquakes,
             | but they are still highly centralized, where as Intels have
             | their fabs spread out nicely (not all the same node size so
             | if you really need 5nm you might still be in trouble).
        
               | rvba wrote:
               | Maybw centralization is the competetive edge.
               | 
               | Their best people can easily move from fab to fab.
        
           | rsanek wrote:
           | definitely not too late. plenty of cases in tech where worse
           | comebacks were achieved. amd is a good example mentioned
           | elsewhere in the thread. jobs brought apple back after it was
           | months away from bankruptcy. even Nvidia itself was close to
           | being fucked when its cuda bet was early and wasn't paying
           | off yet -- Jensen talks about this in interviews
        
           | mahkeiro wrote:
           | Market cap are by no means an indicator of the future of a
           | company! I bought AMD shares when their market cap was 20x
           | smaller than today and everyone was telling me that AMD
           | didn't stand a single chance vs Intel. I'm pretty sure that
           | you were that guy then.
        
         | owenversteeg wrote:
         | I agree that the board's lack of technical expertise is an
         | issue, but I think the root issue is - and hear me out, because
         | this sounds ridiculous - the vibes.
         | 
         | At the end of the day, a company is a machine to turn employee
         | labor into revenue. Intel has clearly been a sinking ship for
         | years now. What kind of people work at a failing company? What
         | kind of people serve on its board? Is this portrait of the
         | board not a portrait of any other failing business?
        
           | ashoeafoot wrote:
           | Its on the CEO if he cant convince with a plan to turn the
           | ship around and sell that story.
        
           | mrtksn wrote:
           | Interesting take, but wouldn't also have the chance to
           | attract the exactly right people too? Renegades, outcasts who
           | dreamed too big for Nvidia or never got the opportunity at
           | TSMC maybe?
           | 
           | There are many comeback stories, Apple being a particularly
           | great one.
        
             | freeqaz wrote:
             | There are also a lot of geopolitical interests in helping
             | Intel succeed. As much as investors might balk at Intel
             | today, the amount of money that Western governments can
             | toss at the problem is effectively infinite. (Looking at
             | Defense contractors as an example; horrendously
             | inefficient, but tax revenue is effectively perpetually
             | guaranteed to keep flowing.)
             | 
             | It's silly to frame it this way, but even though the US and
             | allies pay gobs for planes like the F-35, it's also what
             | continues to allow the stream of taxable money to continue.
             | 
             | I view Intel in a similar light. Even if they stay
             | inefficient, there will still be money for a long time
             | because the West needs a way to be self-sufficient. The
             | cost of not having a backup is too high (tens of trillions
             | of dollars when I last looked into it).
             | 
             | It's a weird market that doesn't obey a lot of the
             | conventional rules of capitalism. Yes, it would be better
             | if Intel were able to compete without government subsidies,
             | and maybe they will. But even if they don't it's very
             | unlikely they'll totally crater because of how central this
             | "power" is, and TSMC will never cede full control of their
             | latest tech until the UN recognizes Taiwan as a distinct
             | entity from China (imo).
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | The F-35 is actually an extremely affordable 5th
               | generation fighter aircraft.
               | 
               | It is cheaper per unit then some 4th generation aircraft
               | now.
        
               | michaelt wrote:
               | Yes, the F-35 costs just $34,000 per flight hour.
               | 
               | That's much cheaper than, say, Pat Gelsinger whose total
               | comp was $86,000 per hour in 2021.
        
               | etempleton wrote:
               | Not to mention from the US Govt perspective it keeps
               | thousands of people employed in well paying jobs and
               | extends domestic expertise and capabilities.
        
               | rob74 wrote:
               | Well, the _current_ US administration was committed to
               | helping Intel succeed
               | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act),
               | not so sure about the incoming one. Maybe that also
               | played a part in the decision?
        
               | rolandog wrote:
               | Exactly. It's a "too big to fail" with a touch of "what
               | are you gonna do, let me go _bankrupt_? " situation.
        
             | sydbarrett74 wrote:
             | Too bad Andy Grove is dead.
        
             | AdrianB1 wrote:
             | Such people are not hired by this companies, the hiring
             | process is strongly against them. Also such people have
             | better things in life to do and fight for, not the worst of
             | the corporate world and a board of pokemons.
        
             | rob74 wrote:
             | I don't want to belittle Apple's success, but managing the
             | turnaround at Apple didn't require the kind of long-term
             | planning and commitment that investments in semiconductor
             | manufacturing require.
        
               | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
               | I wouldn't be so sure about that. Apple is a huge
               | hardware machine, and has been, since Day One. They not
               | only have to deal with manufacturing hardware, but also
               | promotion and distribution, which is not for the faint of
               | heart. Most of Intel's work is B2B, while Apple is B2C.
               | 
               | Steve Jobs was particularly good at playing The Long
               | Game; something American CEOs generally suck at.
        
               | brookst wrote:
               | While it's true that hardware was a central part of
               | Apple's turnaround, it was the comparatively simple and
               | quick hardware of designing boards with off the shelf
               | parts (at the time). That's actually closer to software
               | than the "hire the bulldozers to break ground for the
               | building that is designed from blueprints to house the
               | highly custom machines designed to make the chips using
               | the fab processes that we're betting the company on" kind
               | of hardware.
               | 
               | At its core, Intel (like TSMC) is more of a manufacturing
               | company than a tech company.
        
               | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
               | I was thinking more about the long-term planning that
               | Jobs was so known for. He would develop product lines
               | that would take years to break even. Not all were able to
               | make the cut.
               | 
               | I worked for a Japanese corporation, and most of their
               | initiatives had decade-long timelines.
               | 
               | US companies tend to have 3-month-long timelines (I have
               | _no idea_ why  /s).
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | > US companies tend to have 3-month-long timelines (I
               | have no idea why /s).
               | 
               | I don't understand this platitude because the largest and
               | most profitable businesses in the world, US tech and
               | pharma companies, have very long timelines.
               | 
               | Amazon took 20+ years to literally build infrastructure,
               | the early investors of Facebook were not looking for a 3
               | month payday, they invested billions for the 10+ year
               | payday.
               | 
               | See the HN threads for when Zuckerberg paid for Instagram
               | and WhatsApp, with so many wondering how he would recoup
               | the enormous investment.
               | 
               | Apple probably plowed billions into watches AirPods and M
               | processors for years before it saw a return, going so far
               | as to lend money to TSMC for many years with no guarantee
               | of TSMC being able to make the product they wanted.
               | 
               | Tesla, Alphabet's Waymo bet, Uber, Nvidia, so many
               | publicly listed businesses have a years long timelines
               | 
               | Same for US pharma, it takes decades to get a product to
               | market, with a high chance it never does.
        
               | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
               | Every single example that you gave, had visionaries
               | behind the long-term pushes.
               | 
               | Steve Jobs had a _lot_ of failures. It 's just that his
               | successes were _so_ successful, that people forget about
               | the duds.
               | 
               | These visionaries don't just have plans, they have
               | _fiendish plots_ , that would make a Grand Vizier hang
               | his head in shame.
               | 
               | But they move on, and that's when the "quarter-miners"
               | inevitably move in.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | The formula seems to be "businesses led by people with
               | long term goals + filled with employees capable of
               | executing + luck".
               | 
               | I don't think "US" is a useful qualifier, publicly listed
               | businesses all over the world have the same short-termism
               | without the right ingredients.
        
               | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
               | The Japanese basically have "long-terminism" baked into
               | their corporate bylaws.
               | 
               | The company I worked for, is a pretty "old-fashioned"
               | one, so may no longer be representative of the standard,
               | but it didn't matter who was in charge. All planning was
               | done in 10/5/3/1 year process; with the goals getting
               | "sharper," as you approached zero.
               | 
               | It was not particularly conducive to software
               | development, but worked fairly well, for most of the
               | stuff they made.
        
             | 7speter wrote:
             | I think attracting these sorts of minds also depends on the
             | resources a company can provide to them. Right now intel is
             | keeping their belt tight. Iirc, there was a whole team of
             | brilliant engineers who were working on a RISC V project
             | let go from Intel late summer/early fall. I've read about
             | talks regarding a sort of brain drain occuring.
        
           | vasco wrote:
           | Intel won't go down after receiving the billions it did for
           | foundries. The USA doesn't burn money. IBM 2.0
        
             | actionfromafar wrote:
             | The billions are just a drop in the Intel bucket.
        
             | chithanh wrote:
             | Intel won't go down, US lawmakers are determined to prevent
             | that from happening. Any government rescue will however
             | cause Intel shareholders to lose their money. Which is
             | presumably why investors aren't too happy about the current
             | situation.
             | 
             | https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/intel-might-be-
             | to...
        
           | lordnacho wrote:
           | > the vibes
           | 
           | I went to lunch the other day with a friend. We had both
           | worked at Intel during our early careers, and we still know
           | people who are there over 20 years later.
           | 
           | Of course the topic arose of our old workplace. We had a
           | great time there it should be said. But neither of us stayed
           | on, and it was vibes.
           | 
           | Even at that time, as a young guy in university, I thought
           | something was wrong. I couldn't tell what, since I was a
           | young guy who barely knew anything about the business. But I
           | knew that I felt uncomfortable about potentially spending
           | decades at a place where everyone was so relaxed. There was
           | no urgency. People would come in, find a colleague to have
           | coffee with, and that was their day. I checked with the other
           | interns as well, it was really chill.
           | 
           | I was working on my thesis, and my team was working on
           | rolling out what would later be called WiFi. Amazingly, part
           | of the strategy was to slow down certain standards, because
           | we were behind in some of the fabs. That didn't seem like
           | what you would do as a cutting-edge technology company.
           | People at the all-hands would ask things like "should we keep
           | AMD around just for show? So that we aren't a monopoly?".
           | Well, that problem has been solved now.
           | 
           | I got offered a permanent role but never even considered it.
        
             | le-mark wrote:
             | A phenomena so common it has a name:
             | 
             | https://medium.com/geekculture/the-dead-sea-
             | effect-d71df1372...
        
               | mensetmanusman wrote:
               | It's so easy to fix with competent leadership. Kind of
               | sad to see the state of American "leaders"
        
           | brookst wrote:
           | As someone who worked at Intel for 5ish years a while ago, I
           | partly agree. There was a fatalism to the culture; a sense
           | that any initiative had to be simultaneously super low risk
           | and guaranteed to generate $1B in revenue within a couple of
           | years. It had to be 100% predictable and planned month by
           | month years in advance, and also exactly what customers would
           | want on day one.
           | 
           | The people who "succeeded" were those who could sell that
           | story to the finance org (who essentially made all the
           | product decisions), and who could move onward and upward
           | before the fairy tale collapsed.
           | 
           | The disconnect between the aspirational culture (risk taking,
           | tech-forward, customer-focused) and the real culture (risk
           | averse, finance-forward, planning-focused) was extreme. The
           | whole place was like a filter designed to retain only those
           | who had no interest or capability to fix the systemic issues.
        
             | sbarre wrote:
             | This describes almost every large enterprise I've ever done
             | work for or worked at.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | In most giant companies it _is_ a reasonable strategy.
               | 
               | The critical difference is most large companies don't
               | need to innovate. United doesn't design aircraft,
               | airports, etc they compete with other huge companies in
               | an extremely capital intensive industry and execution is
               | what matters.
               | 
               | FedEx, Walmart, Bank of America, etc all need to keep up
               | with their competitors but there's no need to make risky
               | bets when slow and steady brings in billions of revenue
               | and nothing external is going to drive them out of
               | business quickly.
               | 
               | Intel essentially forgot just how ruthless their industry
               | was and got crushed.
        
               | cma wrote:
               | I think all major airlines have pretty much gotten to the
               | point of bankruptcy without bailouts
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | Again a logical choice.
               | 
               | Much like banks the boards of airlines are incentivized
               | to have high levels of debt supported dividends /
               | buybacks because it's a highly volatile industry. Money
               | isn't clawed back from investors, but cash reserves
               | disappear in a downturn.
               | 
               | Really any high risk industry where profits can be
               | extracted in good times faces the same issues. The
               | possibility for concessions from governments or people
               | they owe money to like retires and bond holders etc, then
               | repeat the cycle while maintaining control incentives
               | high risk strategies because they are leveraging other
               | people's money.
        
             | nine_zeros wrote:
             | > There was a fatalism to the culture; a sense that any
             | initiative had to be simultaneously super low risk and
             | guaranteed to generate $1B in revenue within a couple of
             | years. It had to be 100% predictable and planned month by
             | month years in advance
             | 
             | Ultimately, this is what MBA-style corporations do. They
             | want unfettered predictability and massive revenues from
             | every initiative. They even set up corporate structures to
             | penalize failures.
             | 
             | As a result, layers and layers of managers, and managers
             | and engineers are all risk averse. They will be penalized
             | for being wrong, their jobs and livelihoods are put on
             | stake.
             | 
             | What does one expect in such an environment?
             | Innovation/risk-taking or politics of self-
             | preservation/blaming/backstabbing?
             | 
             | The MBA-style is a failure for innovation and Intel should
             | be a case study in every MBA school.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Have you ever taken an MBA course? It's so weird for you
               | to refer to "MBA-style corporations" considering that
               | "The Innovator's Dilemma" by Clayton M. Christensen has
               | literally been a core text in most MBA programs for
               | decades. If anything, Intel has become an _anti_ MBA-
               | style corporation.
               | 
               | https://hbsp.harvard.edu/product/10706-PDF-ENG
        
               | nine_zeros wrote:
               | "MBA-style corporations" does not mean that they have
               | read the innovators dilemma.
               | 
               | An MBA-style corporation is one that is lost in a vast
               | trove of metrics. They focus too much on the birds-eye
               | view dashboard style of work - ultimately forgetting that
               | it is less important to meet metrics and more important
               | to keep innovating.
               | 
               | The metric-driven production is well suited for
               | warehouses and factories where every unit is the same as
               | the other. Because every unit is the same your business
               | can focus on eeking optimizations visible via metrics.
               | 
               | But technology is not like that at all. Every unit of
               | production is so different from one another. You cannot
               | have a top heavy company that is just focusing on
               | metrics. You need the top to be intelligently engaged
               | with market, customers, systems, and employees.
               | 
               | Put in another words, if your company's primary focus is
               | margin management, shareholder return, and squeezing
               | production (MBA-school style), your company will have a
               | very very hard time innovating.
               | 
               | Case in point - Intel - which has haemorrhaged itself
               | with years of focus on buybacks and dividends and unit
               | production - but not studying the market, studying modern
               | tech, and innovation.
        
               | brookst wrote:
               | Eh, I have an MBA, and that is not at all my experience.
               | At my program, there was a ton of focus on agility,
               | avoiding sunk cost fallacies, the importance of a healthy
               | corporate culture, what a tax elaborate structures can
               | be, and so on.
               | 
               | And it was before Intel failed, but we had case studies
               | on IBM, Enron, and General Motors and how misaligned
               | incentives led to incompetence, corruption, and failure.
               | 
               | You may have had bad experiences with some individual
               | MBAs (they run the gamut, just like everyone else), or
               | you may have absorbed some stereotypes, but that's really
               | not at all what is taught.
        
             | foobiekr wrote:
             | I was not aware that my last two companies have secretly
             | been Intel because every one of these factors applied to
             | them.
             | 
             | It's really another aspect of the innovator's dilemma -
             | interesting $-wise and margin-wise is so limited that they
             | end up never doing anything interesting.
             | 
             | It is a problem really specific to high margin companies.
             | 
             | You actually don't see this behavior at low margin
             | businesses because the spectrum of things that can be done
             | which aren't immediately labeled a margin drag is a lot
             | wider.
             | 
             | The company I work for now put all the up front effort into
             | a new product line which would lilekk pk y have easily
             | gotten to a billion or two a year within 3y with the right
             | customer wins, but out normal margin is very high and the
             | new line of business would have been very profitable
             | objectively but would have been a margin drag. Every dollar
             | would have lowered the gross and net margin.
        
           | nimish wrote:
           | Culture eats strategy for breakfast.
           | 
           | Intel's innovate or die culture died years ago
           | 
           | Inertia has taken its time but the company itself is catching
           | up
        
           | AnotherGoodName wrote:
           | The pay is ridiculously low. Lower than tsmc in Taiwan on a
           | ppp basis (not that far off in raw $ terms). Much lower than
           | tiny hardware startups in the USA. Monumentally lower than
           | AMD or nvidia, especially with stock grants factored in.
           | 
           | No pay rises for over 20years now. Layoffs on a routine
           | basis. They asked everyone to take a pay cut last year. All
           | of this in an extremely competitive labour market.
           | 
           | It's pretty obvious to anyone that a job at intel is
           | temporary. You take the job and do the bare minimum (because
           | hey you're paid bare minimum) and keep looking. There isn't
           | going to be a single employee outside the board at intel who
           | isn't browsing for a new job given the wage disparity.
           | Everyone knows this. If you have a brilliant improvement for
           | process keep it to yourself and take it to the next job. A
           | low level position at a startup pays more than a senior role
           | at intel at this point. It's a laughing stock and the most
           | recent statement at the last earnings was more layoffs and
           | wage freezes to give more shareholder value.
           | 
           | They already have 0 serious talent and nobody gives a fuck
           | there, reasonably so. "You're going to lay me off from by far
           | the lowest paying company in tech if I don't give 100%?"
           | "Ok!".
           | 
           | It's such a joke of a company and has been for 20 years now
           | and the investors have made it clear they want another 20
           | years of this.
        
             | AnotherGoodName wrote:
             | Do you want $77k/yr for a job with degree requirements at
             | intel in an extremely high cost of living area or would you
             | rather get well over $200k/yr at a competitor for the exact
             | same job description. Lol. This was one random example out
             | of pretty much any role at intel just to give awareness of
             | how dire 20 years of wage freezes from short term investors
             | becomes over time.
             | 
             | https://www.indeed.com/cmp/Intel-Corporation/job-
             | titles/Inte...
             | 
             | https://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/NVIDIA-Signal-Integrity-
             | Eng...
        
               | Spivak wrote:
               | Wow $77k holy shit that's uhh not doing so well with
               | inflation.
        
               | AnotherGoodName wrote:
               | Yeah I think people don't realize just how dire it is at
               | Intel. The talk above of the culture being on a death
               | march can easily be explained by the jobs at intel having
               | literally nothing at stake. And they announced even more
               | layoffs and wage freezes at the last quarterly earnings.
               | 
               | It's not an engineering run company like the successful
               | big tech companies. Everyone working at intel is there
               | temporarily and there's no reason to build a long term
               | career there. You jump asap.
               | 
               | I don't see the shareholders voting for a reasonable
               | tripling (quadrupling?) of engineer salaries anytime soon
               | given the short term thinking track record. Which means I
               | think the only way out is for an entirely new engineer
               | run company to appear.
               | 
               | Intel have run on momentum to this point. They actually
               | have 10nm foundries operational due to some level of
               | talent continuing to persist over the past 20 years. They
               | can't seem to get much further past that (smaller nodes
               | than that have reported terrible yields). They have more
               | or less competitive cpus for sale (although they clearly
               | hit a wall in that aspect to the point the latest CPUs
               | bench exactly the same or worse than their own previous
               | generations).
               | 
               | I think the momentum has definitely run out and the
               | talent is gone at this point. The momentum is now in the
               | other direction. Morale is dire, no one working there
               | gives anymore of a fuck about their job than the kid
               | pushing trolleys at the grocery store. Their CPUs are not
               | advancing with each generation at all anymore and they
               | cannot get reasonable yields on newer fab nodes.
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | People seeking permanent US residency via an H-1B visa want
           | to work at a failing company. And I don't blame them; from
           | their perspective it's a totally rational choice as long as
           | the company doesn't fire them before they get a green card.
        
         | alfiedotwtf wrote:
         | Prediction: now that the bean counters taking over is complete,
         | Intel will sell off its hardware branch and turn into a
         | consultancy service like IBM
        
           | lmpdev wrote:
           | I don't see this happening
           | 
           | 95-99%+ of their revenue is from hardware
           | 
           | IBM had diversified for decades before evaporating completely
        
         | passwordoops wrote:
         | Not just let of technical experience, but the experience they
         | do have is scary. Gregory Smith, for example, who is "the
         | former CFO and EVP of operations at Boeing. He's been on the
         | board since 2017 and was an interim CEO at Boeing during
         | 2020...probably be directly involved with the Boeing fiasco."
         | 
         | Someone like that should be facing criminal negligence charges,
         | not sitting on boards.
        
           | nimish wrote:
           | Truly a comical choice for a board member
        
           | lordnacho wrote:
           | It's an indictment of the capitalist system. There's supposed
           | to be oversight that ensure our organizations are run by
           | capable people. But you look at this board (and I'm sure a
           | few others) and it's clear they are not worth the money they
           | are paid. What is anyone even thinking, having a guy from
           | Boeing there?
           | 
           | The board is also too big, and filled with irrelevant people.
           | Four or five specialists who know the area, and one or two
           | financial side people, that's all you need. Too many chefs =
           | nobody's cooking, nobody is responsible.
        
             | gjsman-1000 wrote:
             | > It's an indictment of the capitalist system.
             | 
             | Do you have any evidence, that any other system, has
             | demonstrated historical immunity to this problem? Last I
             | checked, the Soviet system put some awfully unqualified
             | people in charge of nuclear plants, and we know how that
             | went. Last I checked, China put some awfully unqualified
             | people in charge of the housing market, and we know how
             | that's going.
             | 
             | The correct response is that unqualified people in
             | positions of power has plagued every social structure.
             | Arguably, alternative systems have failed in this regard to
             | even worse degrees, with far more catastrophic outcomes.
        
         | FrustratedMonky wrote:
         | Isn't there some business cycle where companies reach the
         | 'fattened pig' phase, and then wall street just feeds on it.
         | 
         | Isn't this what that looks like? Nobody is really 'saving'
         | Intel. They are eating it.
        
       | klelatti wrote:
       | I'm not sure how it's possible to come to a firm view on this
       | decision on the basis of the information that is now public.
       | 
       | For example whilst there has been apparent technical progress eg
       | on 18A - which is central to Gelsingers track record - it will
       | mean nothing without IFS customers. It wouldn't take a technical
       | background to evaluate whether Intel is making progress in
       | actually signing firms up for IFS.
       | 
       | Will technical progress continue without Gelsinger - surely yes.
       | But a new CEO might also deal with issues that he was clearly
       | slow to such as costs and getting rid of products that are going
       | nowhere.
        
         | AtlasBarfed wrote:
         | Surely yes?
         | 
         | Intel has been a company of engineering underdelivery and
         | incompetence for a decade now. Huge bonuses and pay to
         | financial management, salary reductions and cheapness on the
         | labor side, your classic American MBA war-on-labor.
         | 
         | The fact they cannot deliver a GPU, which is just a big vector
         | processing array fundamentally, has been the long running sign
         | of Intel's incompetence, something they should have had
         | literally 25 years ago when Apples had vector processors and
         | the first 3D accelerators were hitting the PC gaming world.
         | 
         | The intellectual talent long fled Intel, and they didn't invest
         | in replacement intellectual talent. Because MBAs don't respect
         | "talent". They tolerate it for some function of tolerance, and
         | generally the "dead sea effect" is imposed as talent leaves and
         | the managers let the structure rot rather than fix it.
         | 
         | Gelsinger obviously didn't have time to fix the intellectual
         | and talent rot, because he probably needed to eliminate three
         | levels of vice presidents to start with.
         | 
         | I really celebrate the article's approach. The arrival of
         | massive CEO pay, allegedly because of how important, public,
         | and critical their positions are, never actually comes with
         | detailing of who is in charge and the effect of their
         | decisions.
         | 
         | Why do the major heads of petroleum companies, cigarette
         | companies, and other managerial structures largely get to
         | destroy their companies or the world in the anonymity of
         | private org charts?
        
           | klelatti wrote:
           | So Gelsinger personally did all the technical work on 18A? Of
           | course he didn't and the work on that will continue.
           | 
           | He also didn't really deal with the other issues you've
           | highlighted and the 'didn't have time bit' is just an excuse.
           | 
           | I mean how much time did it take to say eg Gaudi is a
           | distraction and we should end it?
        
           | LarsDu88 wrote:
           | Intel does have GPUs on the market which are good on the
           | silicon side, but simply do not have the same level of
           | software support that companies like Nvidia have built up
           | (Nvidia has drivers that are backwards compatible for 20
           | years, Intel has issues with games released more than 4 years
           | ago, as an example)
           | 
           | What they don't have is GPU manufacturing setup. All the
           | Intel GPUs are fabbed by TSMC. But guess what, Nvidia has no
           | manufacturing at all!
        
             | ghxst wrote:
             | I heard people were optimistic about their GPU drivers for
             | AI when comparing them to AMD at least, I have a few
             | friends that seem happy with each major driver version
             | update they get for gaming as well so I'm optimistic that
             | they can eventually figure out the software side of things.
        
           | tester756 wrote:
           | >The fact they cannot deliver a GPU,
           | 
           | Their recent GPUs are decent, wdym?
        
           | nimish wrote:
           | They absolutely could have done so multiple times, and did a
           | few times with the iGPU and Larrabee, but the issue was that
           | they wanted to protect their lucrative CPU cash cow.
           | 
           | So Jensen and nVidia worked around them. Any big tech company
           | can become a fabless semiconductor company quickly, so the
           | value edge of having "the best CPU" is declining. Intel
           | products are OK for now but we can machine translate x86 to
           | ARM or risc-v so well that it won't matter.
        
           | thunkshift1 wrote:
           | > The fact they cannot deliver a GPU, which is just ..
           | 
           | "Just"?! This is an incredibly dumb take.
           | 
           | Are you by chance comparing a brand new hardware product
           | launch with a software product launch? Launching a hw product
           | that does well takes YEARS. Any other company will not be
           | able to pull this off, or they would have done it already.
           | Intel has done quite well coming up with a decent gpu from
           | scratch. There are like two other companies in this world
           | that know how to do that, and they took a long, long time to
           | get there.
        
       | someonehere wrote:
       | For some reason when Apple moved to their own SOC I knew this
       | would be one of the nails in the death of the company. A few
       | other blunders on their part and here we are.
        
       | Reason077 wrote:
       | > _" he (was) the most technically competent CEO of the last few
       | bad apples at Intel, but he was also among the shortest"_
       | 
       | Is this article suggesting that Pat Gelsinger may have lost his
       | job in part because he's shorter compared to other typical "CEO
       | types"? Are we still subconsciously judging people based on their
       | height in 2024? Sad if true, and if not true, then it's an odd
       | thing for the article to point out.
       | 
       | (Bezos is pretty short too, isn't he?)
        
         | buckle8017 wrote:
         | Is this a joke?
         | 
         | He's talking about the length of his tenure.
        
           | ojbyrne wrote:
           | The word "tenure" was left out. It took me a second to guess
           | that.
        
         | renewedrebecca wrote:
         | I'm going to go with shortest as in length of time he was in
         | the job.
        
         | LarsDu88 wrote:
         | I think this was a typo. He had the shortest tenure at 5 years.
         | He wasn't the physically shortest guy.
         | 
         | Intel greatest ceo Andy Grove may not have been particularly
         | tall... spent his childhood as a malnourished holocaust
         | survivor
        
       | AnotherGoodName wrote:
       | Is Pat ok? Everyone's talking about how it's terrible to force
       | pat out but he started posting very out of context bible quotes
       | to twitter starting in August this year and continued posting
       | since.
       | 
       | There's been no word of personal health issues but it did seem
       | like a sudden change.
        
         | anon291 wrote:
         | I mean he's always been super religious and runs an org for
         | Christians in tech
        
           | tyre wrote:
           | The board works in mysterious ways.
        
         | mepian wrote:
         | He has been posting them for years.
        
       | douglee650 wrote:
       | Is this guy short INTC, yes or no. The rest is color commentary
        
       | porknubbins wrote:
       | As a shareholder who lost quite a bit I was angry at Gelsinger.
       | But now after reading this article I feel sorry for him as
       | someone who by all appearances tried to do a very hard thing and
       | just came up short and got pushed out by the board.
       | 
       | Loss of a lot of performance crowns to AMD and 13th and 14th gen
       | cpu failure problems were big black marks on his watch but its
       | not certain that anyone else would have done better and I never
       | doubted his commitment to the job at hand. Maybe what Intel needs
       | is a whole culture shift to get rid of the bureaucratization and
       | HR-ization and Gelsinger was not ruthless enough in removing
       | calcified middle management layers and thought he could save
       | Intel with technical achievements alone and avoid a lot of human
       | suffering.
        
       | tgma wrote:
       | I have mixed feelings about this. On one hand, Intel as we knew
       | it, a technical powerhouse, who kicked ass and delivered the
       | Moore's law, would likely have been best served by someone like
       | Pat than the alternatives. However, the world may have changed
       | and the real value of Intel going forward may be the national
       | security aspect of it. If Intel is becoming a Lockheed Martin,
       | perhaps you want a capital allocator more than a technologist at
       | the helm.
        
         | ulfw wrote:
         | What national security? Huh? What do you have in mind for intel
         | to be going forward?
        
           | BeetleB wrote:
           | Fabs. The only other major players are Samsung and TSMC, with
           | the latter being the giant. If China invades Taiwan, they
           | control the bulk of the semiconductor supply.
        
             | marcyb5st wrote:
             | The rumors say TSMC fabs are designed to self-destruct if
             | China takes control of them.
             | 
             | I don't know if that is true, but even if it wasn't I
             | suspect that the US would destroy them instead of letting
             | China have them. China having a de-facto monopoly on
             | semiconductors production is a serious problem for the US
             | until new fabs will be available elsewhere.
             | 
             | In fact, not only they can prioritize domestic military/AI
             | development leapfrogging the US giving enough time, but
             | they can provide high tech components to the likes of
             | Russia, Iran, North Korea.
             | 
             | And the US wouldn't be able to retaliate as China could
             | simply levy taxes or bans semiconductors exports to the US
             | and whoever sells to them (similar to what the US is doing
             | with Russia after the war in Ukraine started).
             | 
             | So I expect that, as soon as an hypothetical invasion of
             | Taiwan looks like it's gonna succeed, those fabs will be
             | reduced to dust.
        
               | mrweasel wrote:
               | > The rumors say TSMC fabs are designed to self-destruct
               | if China takes control of them.
               | 
               | That still denies you access to the microprocessors that
               | you may need for your own military equipment. My guess is
               | that China already produces what they need in terms of
               | microprocessors in mainland China, so while they can't
               | access TSMC technology that won't necessarily have any
               | influence on their weapons production. The US, and the
               | west in general, needs to be able to produce
               | semiconductors for the defence industry locally. For the
               | US, and the EU, Intel is, or can be, a major part of the
               | solution.
        
               | BeetleB wrote:
               | > I don't know if that is true, but even if it wasn't I
               | suspect that the US would destroy them instead of letting
               | China have them.
               | 
               | Propping up Intel is far, far cheaper than a war with
               | China.
        
       | zoky wrote:
       | > _His brief stint of 1386 days was surprising because not only
       | was he the most technically competent CEO of the last few bad
       | apples at Intel, but he was also among the shortest._
       | 
       | Well, how tall is he? And why does it matter? The article never
       | actually says.
        
         | LarsDu88 wrote:
         | I'm pretty sure that was a typo. Short tenure, not short
         | stature
        
       | challenger-derp wrote:
       | would be helpful if I could get assistance with the paywall - I
       | could be wrong, but I'm assuming a sizeable handful of commenters
       | in this section managed to read this paywalled article?
        
       | h_tbob wrote:
       | This may sound weird but I think the CHIPS act tempted intel to
       | overextend. Counterintuitively they may even have been better
       | without the money.
       | 
       | i don't think problem was never lack of manufacturing capacity. I
       | think it was process tech.
       | 
       | So I think the free govt money tempted them to invest in
       | something that wasn't mission critical - old node capacity, when
       | they really needed r&d
        
         | rapsey wrote:
         | It was announced a few days ago that Intel is finally going to
         | actually receive something from the CHIPS act. So far they
         | haven't gotten a dime. CHIPS money has overall distributed
         | barely any of the funds.
        
         | mrweasel wrote:
         | That's a good point, there's also Trump coming in and potential
         | tariffs. The path set by Pat Gelsinger may no longer be the
         | most profitable, in the short term. Why invest and restructure
         | if you expect the incoming government to cut your competitors
         | off and allow you to cruise along for another four years?
        
       | _huayra_ wrote:
       | Highly recommend the latest Oxide and Friends podcast where they
       | discuss a lot of this and related stuff:
       | https://oxide.computer/podcasts/oxide-and-friends/2218242
        
       | ksec wrote:
       | We have a whole article on Intel's Board and not a single word on
       | Andy Bryant?
       | 
       | Andy Bryant was large part of the reason Pat Gelsinger left Intel
       | in the first place.
       | 
       | He has been the Chairman of the Board since 2012 and on the board
       | as Vice Chairman for even longer. So yes, all the strategy and
       | direction of Intel's CEO in the past 10 years prior to Pat
       | Gelsinger can be attributed to him.
       | 
       | He also handpicked all the Intel CEO since Paul Otellini.
       | 
       | Pat was called number of times to be backed as next CEO to save
       | Intel during and after Brian Krzanich 's era. He said "no" every
       | time.
       | 
       | Pat agree to be new CEO to replace interim or later official CEO
       | Bob Swan _after_ Andy Bryant 's announced his retirement in early
       | 2020. Handing it over to his friend Omar Ishrak.
       | 
       | The share-holding part was the reason why Intel cant cut off its
       | dividends the first thing Pat came back. They only wanted Intel
       | to keep handing out those dividends.
       | 
       | And ultimately it was the Shareholders or Wall Street, handing
       | out Board Membership to their circles until it is run to the
       | ground.
        
         | brookst wrote:
         | Well said. Everyone kept acting like Intel "should be" an
         | innovator but was somehow failing, when the shareholders were
         | running it as a cash cow all along. Rightly or wrongly, they
         | decided a long time ago that it would be more lucrative for
         | Intel to be in decline, and that became self-fulfilling.
        
           | glial wrote:
           | This is another reason that any federal investment in Intel
           | should have strings attached.
        
             | AnotherGoodName wrote:
             | I think Intel should just be bypassed entirely. Each node
             | is such a leap in process it requires entirely new fabs. At
             | that point going with the poorly run incumbent is
             | pointless.
             | 
             | A few facts about intel. Wages have been stagnant there for
             | over 20years now. Just recently they had wage reductions
             | across the company and there's been layoffs for those
             | 20years of stock declines. Tsmc in Taiwan literally pays
             | double on a ppp basis (it's not even that far off on a
             | direct dollar to dollar basis). Even china has been
             | poaching from intel. Look up the Chinese government funded
             | Lianqiu Lake R&D Center, they are offering more for talent
             | in raw $ terms in a custom built luxury city. And yes I get
             | that if you were born in the USA you probably want to stay
             | there but there's no hope of intel poaching international
             | talent anymore.
             | 
             | Do you know what the current boards plan is? More layoffs
             | and lower wages. Like how the fuck can they compete without
             | talent which they haven't had for over 20years now.
             | Everyone there knows it's a stepping stone job. Do the bare
             | minimum in hire and jump as soon as the next opportunity
             | arises. And the government wants to give funding to this
             | short sighted turd.
        
               | sroussey wrote:
               | Intel is hugely bloated.
               | 
               | - Intel: 126,000 employees
               | 
               | - AMD: 26,000 employees
               | 
               | - TMSC: 76,000 employees
               | 
               | - NVIDIA: 29,000 employees
        
               | AnotherGoodName wrote:
               | You'd need to split that by business segment.
               | 
               | Intel has more foundries than even tsmc and the others
               | don't have foundries.
        
               | hedgehog wrote:
               | If you add AMD (design) + TSMC (fab) it's not that far
               | off from Intel (who does both, and sells >3x AMD by
               | units). Clearly there are struggles at Intel but the
               | simple math doesn't explain it.
        
               | tester756 wrote:
               | AMD 26K + TSMC 76K = 102k ~=~ INTEL (126K - 15K) = 110k
        
               | mensetmanusman wrote:
               | You might want to compare by operation.
        
             | sroussey wrote:
             | It does. No share buybacks for example.
        
           | michaelt wrote:
           | _> the shareholders were running it as a cash cow all along_
           | 
           | Those shareholders have seen an average dividend yield of
           | 2.83% [1] in the past 5 years. In the meantime, the inflation
           | rate has been 2.43%. And if you're about to say 'stock
           | buybacks are more tax-efficient' the stock price is down 63%
           | over that period.
           | 
           | If you think that's a cash cow, you should see what an
           | amazing deal 5-year treasury bills are, with their jaw-
           | dropping 4% return on investment.
           | 
           | [1] https://ycharts.com/companies/INTC/dividend_yield
        
             | jahabrewer wrote:
             | GP probably means the 2010s, during which the board milked
             | the company instead of investing.
        
               | brookst wrote:
               | Indeed, that is what I meant. And the fact that it is a
               | poorly-performing cash cow now does not mean it is not
               | run as a cash cow.
        
             | brookst wrote:
             | You can run something as a cash cow and not get tons of
             | money out, just like you can run something like a star
             | without actually being successful.
             | 
             | Intent != outcome
        
       | ksynwa wrote:
       | > The Death of Intel
       | 
       | I know they are not doing well number wise but is it correct to
       | claim this? Or it exaggerated?
       | 
       | If it is somewhat true, what could Intel ideally do to not die?
       | The article talks about Gelsinger's naivete and provides a
       | quanitity for wafers but I don't know what that means.
        
         | lotsofpulp wrote:
         | It probably means the death of a high net income business or a
         | business that leads in its field.
         | 
         | They fall sufficiently far back that they can no longer afford
         | to pay the wages and capital expenses necessary to compete.
        
       | jgrahamc wrote:
       | _James Goetz is a partner at Sequoia and joined the board in
       | November 2019. He has previously served on networking-focused
       | boards. He has a degree in electrical engineering, is likely
       | semi-technical, and understands the industry. He's relatively new
       | but likely does not have a technical background. He's been on the
       | board long enough to be partially to blame._
       | 
       | I crossed paths with Jim Goetz at Accel because of the company
       | Vital Signs that he started. I am not sure why they say "but
       | likely does not have a technical background" because I can attest
       | that he clearly did. Weird.
        
         | billjive wrote:
         | Jim and I were on my company's board (Jive) and he absolutely
         | has a technical background.
        
       | SilverBirch wrote:
       | I think a lot of the analysis of Intel is just looking at a
       | totally broken timeframe. Intel started having problems in early
       | 2010s. It has been sliding since then. To fix it you need to
       | clean house, get aligned on a good chain of management and
       | engineering, then build out a roadmap that gets you back to
       | process leadership and then execute on that roadmap. A year to
       | sort out the organisation, a year to re-vamp the roadmap,
       | probably 2-3 years to execute. Pat was probably the only person
       | with the clout to ask for that time, and he didn't get it (and
       | arguably he didn't really face the scale of the problem). The
       | board failed, but it failed in 2010-2015, there's no point
       | searching for someone to blame now, we're well past the point
       | that the correct answer is to sell it for parts.
        
       | AlexandrB wrote:
       | What's crazy about Intel's downfall is that Intel used a bunch of
       | anticompetitive tactics to hamper AMD throughout the years and
       | _still_ couldn 't keep them at bay long term. It's like a sports
       | team that keeps cheating and still loses in the end.
        
       | LarsDu88 wrote:
       | Hey who changed the title of this post?
        
       | hedgehog wrote:
       | Let's not underestimate the complexity of the problem Gelsinger
       | took on. I base that on the experience of selling them a company,
       | and then having a little bit of a view from inside (under Bob
       | Swan). It's clear to me that Gelsinger was trying to keep a lot
       | of plates spinning while returning to former glory in an
       | organization with a lot of cultural baggage doing work that is
       | not amenable to clean sheet attempts. Messy. Post author is
       | probably correct that PE-style chop & shop is the short-term most
       | profitable approach, but it's also the worst outcome for almost
       | everyone besides the largest shareholders.
       | 
       | What I'm looking for in the next set of leadership is a clear,
       | positive vision for the future + an acknowledgement of the
       | systemic changes to the industry they're in (e.g. no longer have
       | the dominant volume to give them a process leadership advantage).
       | There's a lot they can do with tight integration, security,
       | software platform, and product lifecycle that the smaller fabless
       | players aren't able to (yet).
        
       | 29athrowaway wrote:
       | MBAs are the ruin of America
        
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