[HN Gopher] Next stop: Miami
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Next stop: Miami
        
       Author : ra7
       Score  : 206 points
       Date   : 2024-12-05 15:14 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (waymo.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (waymo.com)
        
       | timmg wrote:
       | I wonder when they will be able to provide service in northern
       | cities (that get snow).
       | 
       | Once they can do that -- and (I guess) can prove profitable --
       | they could expand non-stop across the country.
        
         | mavhc wrote:
         | Assuming they stop relying on hd maps, or map everywhere
        
         | schiffern wrote:
         | Anyone know the timeline for Waymo expanding to northern areas
         | _outside_ urban centers? Or are these underserved populations
         | forever stuck waiting hours for an Uber that still cancels half
         | the time?
        
           | comte7092 wrote:
           | At the end of the day that isn't a technical problem but a
           | unit economics one.
           | 
           | Removing the driver from a taxi doesn't bring down costs
           | _that much_. Self driving cars aren't going to change the
           | uber /taxi model at a fundamental level.
           | 
           | They have a finite fleet that they need to deploy. Urban
           | centers mean that fleet utilization is high, and relatively
           | less time and miles are spent driving with no one on board.
           | In rural areas with little demand they will sit empty or have
           | to drive empty for many more miles to their pickups. It just
           | isn't profitable to use your fleet that way no matter what
           | you do.
        
             | Philpax wrote:
             | Hmm, I'm not sure about that - fully autonomous taxis
             | wouldn't be subject to the limitations of human drivers in
             | terms of availability / reliability / endurance. You could
             | ostensibly leave a few taxis around to service otherwise
             | underserved areas and have them run without having to
             | secure a driver each time.
             | 
             | That being said, there is still the cost of maintenance and
             | cleanup, but that can be mitigated (the taxis for five
             | towns could drive to one centralised depot, maintenance can
             | be scheduled to maximise operational time, and eventually
             | all of this can be automated, too)
             | 
             | I don't know if that's how things will work out just yet,
             | but it seems like a possible future based on Waymo's
             | current operational strategy.
        
               | comte7092 wrote:
               | > You could ostensibly leave a few taxis around to
               | service otherwise underserved areas and have them run
               | without having to secure a driver each time.
               | 
               | I think you're dramatically overestimating how much of a
               | barrier obtaining a driver is here. The primary cost is
               | opportunity cost of the capital that isn't being
               | utilized. Not having to have a driver doesn't somehow
               | make it so you can infinitely provision a fleet.
        
               | skybrian wrote:
               | They won't have to pay for the driver when idle, but
               | owning cars ties up capital and the fewer rides they do,
               | the longer it takes to pay off. This isn't specific to
               | cars - all capital equipment works that way. Lower
               | utilization is sometimes unavoidable, but it still means
               | less revenue which can be the difference between a profit
               | and a loss.
               | 
               | How much this matters depends on the price of the car. We
               | don't know how much a Waymo costs, but they're probably
               | not cheap.
               | 
               | To be profitable with lower utilization, they'll need to
               | work on reducing how much each car costs somehow.
        
               | xnx wrote:
               | > To be profitable with lower utilization, they'll need
               | to work on reducing how much each car costs somehow.
               | 
               | Definitely. Their custom vehicle had optimizations for
               | cost, but seems to be on hold due to tariffs.
               | 
               | Waymo also has the option to drop prices lower than
               | Uber/Lyft when vehicles are unutilized, though they still
               | need to stay above their per-mile depreciation and
               | operating costs.
        
               | comte7092 wrote:
               | > Waymo also has the option to drop prices lower than
               | Uber/Lyft when vehicles are unutilized
               | 
               | I think that's an unproven assumption.
               | 
               | There's certainly reason to believe it to be true of
               | course, but uber and Lyft are already capturing upwards
               | of 50% of the fares for each ride, and that's _without_
               | the capital costs on their books. Removing the driver
               | from the equation can't lead to much more than that 50%
               | (realistically much less) margin.
               | 
               | Going from charging $10 to $5 isn't going to make rides
               | suddenly materialize. Especially in rural areas there are
               | just times that people aren't going to be looking to go
               | anywhere, and wait time becomes far more of a factor that
               | raw costs.
        
               | jsnell wrote:
               | > There's certainly reason to believe it to be true of
               | course, but uber and Lyft are already capturing upwards
               | of 50% of the fares for each ride,
               | 
               | That's not true. If you check Uber's Q3 financials, gross
               | bookings for "Mobility" were $21B while revenue was
               | $6.5B. That's way lower than 50%.
        
               | cameldrv wrote:
               | > but uber and Lyft are already capturing upwards of 50%
               | of the fares for each ride
               | 
               | I'm not sure if that's an accurate number, but I have
               | seen a lot of complaints from drivers that they're
               | getting a far lower share of the trip revenue than they
               | used to. It's pretty remarkable that in a competitive
               | market where Uber and Lyft are almost perfect substitutes
               | for each other and charge almost exactly the same prices,
               | that they're able to maintain these gross margins.
        
               | 0xB31B1B wrote:
               | Theres a bunch of factors that will mess with your
               | intuition here: 1) ride hail demand as significant spikes
               | in usage during morning and evening rush hours AND it has
               | a fairly strong seasonal trend depending on geo. 2)
               | Insurance is also a big expense and for large operations
               | like this is priced per mile or per operating hour,
               | having more deadhead time means a higher loss to
               | insurance. 3) People are very sensitive to wait times AND
               | reliability. The desire to use the service drops a ton
               | when wait times are greater than 10 minutes or if you're
               | consistently not able to find a ride. Could waymo support
               | less dense suburbs now? Maybe at certain off peak hours,
               | but the economics and product experience are difficult.
        
             | kieranmaine wrote:
             | Removing the driver does allow for single occupant models
             | that could be significantly cheaper (reduced materials,
             | smaller battery - assuming they'll all be EVS).
             | 
             | It will be interesting to see how things develop once the
             | driver is no longer required and cost is the most important
             | factor (after safety). Exciting times!
        
               | comte7092 wrote:
               | Taxis today are already far far larger than they need to
               | be for two people.
               | 
               | Logistically you need the flexibility of having more
               | seats available. If you're in a rural area and need to
               | transport a family are you going to send 4 vehicles
               | separately?
               | 
               | Ironically it's probably urban areas where single
               | occupancy vehicles make the most sense, given that
               | there's always going to be sufficient demand to allow for
               | more specialization in vehicles for different use cases.
        
               | xnx wrote:
               | > If you're in a rural area and need to transport a
               | family are you going to send 4 vehicles separately?
               | 
               | Probably still years off, but Waymo will probably have a
               | library of vehicles ranging from 2 seats to 20.
        
               | david-gpu wrote:
               | We already have single occupant vehicles that are low
               | cost and fun to use: bicycles and e-bikes. They are very
               | popular in areas where safe infrastructure is available.
        
               | kieranmaine wrote:
               | I'm already an avid cyclist throughout the year, but
               | there's a real drop in the number of people cycling
               | during the winter months. If we can get people in AVs I
               | think this will be a real positive for cyclist for the
               | following reasons:
               | 
               | 1. Reduced curb space dedicated to parking. If you don't
               | need to come back to the same vehicle you only need space
               | to be picked up/dropped off, reducing the amount of
               | parking spaces needed. This space could be used for
               | separated bike lanes. 2. Safer - This is still an unknown
               | but data looks good atm [1]. It would be even better if
               | AVs could be design to prevent cyclists being doored that
               | would be amazing.
               | 
               | [1] https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/12/human-drivers-
               | crash-a-l...
        
               | david-gpu wrote:
               | I envy your optimism.
               | 
               | Self-driving cars will eventually lower the total cost of
               | driving and it will allow for longer commutes as people
               | will be able to either sleep or do some work while in the
               | vehicle.
               | 
               | The inevitable consequence of that is an increase of car
               | traffic, which means more congestion, noise and air
               | pollution (tires and brake pads). We can't know whether
               | the theoretically lower collisions per distance traveled
               | will translate into lower actual injuries until we know
               | how much the distance traveled will increase.
               | 
               | Most importantly, the more people rely on a particular
               | form of transport, the more they will vote to facilitate
               | it, via more lanes, more highways, more forgiving
               | legislation, etc.
               | 
               | I would rather see more active transportation and more
               | efficient forms of transportation. Four-wheel single
               | occupancy vehicles are just about the worst option of
               | all.
        
             | sixQuarks wrote:
             | I can't believe the level of ignorance I'm seeing in these
             | comments.
             | 
             | The driver is THE overwhelming cost of a taxi/uber. What
             | are you talking about?
             | 
             | Your problem is you're not seeing past the costs of a Waymo
             | vehicle with all its sensors and LiDAR, plus all the costs
             | of keeping high definition maps updated, and having
             | teleoperaters on hand.
             | 
             | Tesla doesn't have those costs. Their FSD version 13
             | already drives close to a Waymo of not better in some
             | circumstances. its a done deal, Tesla has won this game
        
             | triceratops wrote:
             | > Removing the driver from a taxi doesn't bring down costs
             | that much
             | 
             | A driver's salary costs as much as a new car. Every year.
        
             | danans wrote:
             | > Removing the driver from a taxi doesn't bring down costs
             | that much
             | 
             | The average pay for a gig driver $18/hr. So for your
             | typical 15-minute ride, that adds $4.50 to it.
             | 
             | Let's say that 15 minute ride is 10 miles. Average. Uber
             | rates are about $1.50 a mile, so that ride is $15.
             | 
             | Therefore, the driver costs almost a third of the cost of
             | the fare.
             | 
             | Waymo's operational cost per mile, however, should be much
             | lower than a regular driver because they will pay lower
             | bulk rates for energy (already much cheaper because it's
             | mostly off peak electricity instead of gasoline) and
             | maintenance (standardized vehicles with highly controlled
             | driving patterns and pre-negotiated repair contracts).
        
             | standardUser wrote:
             | That doesn't follow from the facts. Rideshare drivers get
             | around 50% of the fare (though this seems to vary from
             | 25%-75%). And many riders tip 10-20% of the total. Most of
             | that cost goes away if a single operator is monitoring ~10
             | cars. The tip goes away entirely.
             | 
             | An average per-trip reduction of ~50% changes the economics
             | entirely.
        
           | mlyle wrote:
           | It's got to be the lowest priority; population density
           | improves economics and utilization. Not to mention that it's
           | hard enough to drive in a city with snow, compared to all the
           | other kinds of situations that can manifest outside of urban
           | centers.
        
           | timerol wrote:
           | SF in 2015 (with passengers 2021), Phoenix in 2022, Miami in
           | 2025. Northern urban centers are probably a decade out, let
           | alone areas outside urban centers. There are a lot of cities
           | in the Sun Belt to expand to first.
        
           | duped wrote:
           | I think ultimately the solution to this problem is the same
           | as it was for electrification and telco: government funded
           | mandates to provide service to populations where it's
           | otherwise uneconomical.
           | 
           | One interesting thing today is that CoL can be as high in
           | rural areas as urban areas in the same state, partly because
           | the additional costs of things that don't scale (mostly
           | transportation and healthcare). But we've given up on
           | government helping people, apparently.
        
             | ndileas wrote:
             | That is indeed one solution to this "problem". However,
             | maybe people who live in the sticks should just accept the
             | tradeoffs that come with rural life? If you want next day
             | delivery and taxi service maybe you should live in a place
             | that has those? Not every service has to serve all people
             | in all places and times equally. The government should
             | absolutely not be mandating service levels across the whole
             | US.
        
               | allturtles wrote:
               | Some people need to live in "the sticks" to produce the
               | resources (food, ores, oil, timber) that the rest of
               | society relies on. Subsidizing the availability of
               | services for those people doesn't seem unreasonable, and
               | it is certainly something the federal government has
               | historically taken responsibility for (for mail,
               | electricity, telephone).
        
               | ndileas wrote:
               | Sure, although I think there's room for reasonable people
               | to disagree where to draw the line for various services.
               | But taxi service? Seems way way out there in terms of
               | costs and of minimal benefit.
        
               | duped wrote:
               | State governments already operate special rural
               | transportation services, like busses or even volunteers.
               | Think people who are sick/injured and can't get to
               | healthcare services because they can't drive.
               | 
               | It's not unreasonable to me that they would subsidize
               | robo-taxis for those services since they are already
               | funding services that are expensive or inadequate.
               | Especially if there is some give and take to be had with
               | regulatory overhead for the taxi service.
        
               | rjrdi38dbbdb wrote:
               | Why not just let the market find its own equilibrium? If
               | people need to live there to produce valuable resources,
               | then the cost of those resources will naturally rise to
               | cover the expenses of those employed in those industries.
        
           | asdasdsddd wrote:
           | People are clowning on you, but I think rural airport rides
           | would be huge for waymo.
        
         | IshKebab wrote:
         | Based on what I saw in SF they're still pretty limited to noob-
         | level driving. I expect driving difficulty will be way more of
         | a barrier than snow.
        
           | AlotOfReading wrote:
           | If twin peaks and downtown are your definition of "noob-level
           | driving", what's normal difficulty? Mumbai rush hour? An
           | active war zone?
        
           | whimsicalism wrote:
           | strong disagree
        
           | dyauspitr wrote:
           | Driving in SF alone means it's above mid tier in most other
           | places.
        
             | therein wrote:
             | SF drivers are pretty okay as far as my experiences go.
             | Unless it rains, if it is raining then they'll act like
             | this is the first time they have driven in the rain.
             | Seattle-Tacoma area was the worst. I have never seen so
             | many people drive with so little attention paid to their
             | surroundings.
        
               | dyauspitr wrote:
               | I was referring to road layouts and obstacles on the
               | roads mostly.
        
         | asdasdsddd wrote:
         | They've been testing in Michigan for a while. I guess the only
         | problem is that you can only test this stuff in a third of the
         | year.
        
           | jitl wrote:
           | They should test year round so they can drive year round.
        
       | simpleintheory wrote:
       | I think the most interesting part is that the article says that
       | Waymo's handing its operations to Moove. It seems like Waymo's
       | trying to become a software provider while having other companies
       | handle the capital-intensive parts.
        
         | Workaccount2 wrote:
         | Compared to software, hardware sucks.
         | 
         | Mother nature OS is by far the worst to develop for.
        
           | lnsru wrote:
           | It does not suck! Hardware just barely works.
           | 
           | I design motherboards for industrial computers for living.
           | Last gem: radio module draws 5 amps while transmitting
           | instead of specified 2 amps. Trust nobody!
        
         | ra7 wrote:
         | The pivot has already happened. They're handing over Austin and
         | Atlanta to Uber, and now Phoenix and Miami to Moove. The only
         | places they will continue to own operations for at least the
         | next year are SF and LA.
        
           | bloomingkales wrote:
           | Pivot to what exactly?
        
             | ra7 wrote:
             | To owning just the self driving stack and not the physical
             | operations of running a robotaxi service.
        
         | taneq wrote:
         | Capital-intensive, or labour-intensive? If I were a provider of
         | 'special smart sauce' that goes on a common piece of equipment,
         | I'd be trying to focus on making it so I could provide the
         | sauce rather than dealing with all the real-world issues that
         | come with all the real-world people using the saucy equipment.
        
           | ethbr1 wrote:
           | Depends.
           | 
           | Chick-fil-A grew into a pretty big business by vertically
           | integrating outside of just selling sandwiches to Waffle
           | House.
           | 
           | So sometimes it's worth owning sauce distribution too. ;)
        
         | xnx wrote:
         | > having other companies handle the capital-intensive parts.
         | 
         | Waymo definitely wants to outsource the areas where they don't
         | have special expertise (i.e. Waymo is 100x better at driving,
         | but not 100x better at washing and vacuuming cars). I'm not
         | sure how capital-intensive regional operations are. The
         | vehicles are definitely the largest capital expense. This is
         | more like an AirBnB property owner hiring a cleaning service.
        
           | hwc wrote:
           | Also, contracting out the menial labor makes Waymo's labor
           | practices look much better. They can tell their engineers
           | that all employees make a living wage and get excellent
           | health insurance.
           | 
           | When the actual labor is done by part-timers with no health
           | insurance making not much over minimum wage.
        
         | kieranmaine wrote:
         | This seems much more scaleable. Car share services (eg. Evo in
         | Vancouver) seem like good partners as they already have the
         | fleet management services and a recognizable (and hopefully
         | trusted) brand.
         | 
         | I'm not sure about other car share services work, but in the
         | case of Evo they have existing relationships with the cities
         | that make up Metro Vancouver. I wonder if this would ease
         | rollout as you'd already know all the required people to talk
         | to within municipal government?
        
           | AlotOfReading wrote:
           | B.C. in particular went out of their way to ban autonomous
           | vehicles a few years back, so I'm sure waymo's in no rush to
           | talk to local partners there.
        
             | ttul wrote:
             | Ugh, don't remind me of the lost decade or so during which
             | the local taxi lobby captured the regulators and prevented
             | the entry of Uber. It wasn't until the provincial
             | government was about to be blown away anyhow that they
             | cashed in their chips in a few ridings where the majority
             | of cab owners live...
             | 
             | I have no doubt that BC may be a nice place to live for a
             | variety of reasons, but it will be the last place to have
             | autonomous vehicles.
        
             | kieranmaine wrote:
             | That is very unfortunate. I'm confused why they wouldn't
             | want to get involved in trials and investigate all the
             | benefits. Do you know the rationale behind the decision?
        
         | bickfordb wrote:
         | Seems smart. They'll continue to have all the leverage since
         | they own the tech and will offload all the operational risk
        
         | summerlight wrote:
         | This makes sense. If they don't outsource, they need to run
         | millions of cars. This will cost Alphabet hundreds of billions
         | capex, which is not cheap even for them. This is not just the
         | money problem, but also has significant implications on their
         | speed of business expansion. Let's say Google decides to pour
         | tens of billions every year on Waymo, it will takes tens of
         | years to expand into all of the major US cities. They probably
         | don't want to give the competitors that much time.
        
       | seeingfurther wrote:
       | Miami probably has some of the worst, most lawless drivers in the
       | country -- it's like a free-for-all out there. Makes me wonder if
       | Waymo picked Miami as a kind of stress test for their self-
       | driving tech. If they can handle the chaos there, they can
       | probably handle just about anything.
        
         | bpodgursky wrote:
         | Miami car insurance fraud rings are going to have a fun trying
         | to trick Waymo into rear-ending them. Wonder if it will work.
        
           | rwmj wrote:
           | Would you want to commit insurance fraud against a vehicle
           | that is covered in cameras?
        
             | bpodgursky wrote:
             | Yes.
             | 
             | The game is that you start to pull out for a right turn,
             | and then brake unexpectedly and get the person behind you
             | to tap your bumper, while they are looking for oncoming
             | traffic to the left. Then you take your car to a "friendly"
             | repair shop that overcharges for a new bumper (or claims to
             | replace it) and split the payout.
             | 
             | There's nothing illegal about braking suddenly, the
             | collision is always the fault of the person behind you
             | legally, so there's no personal risk.
        
               | Rebelgecko wrote:
               | When I've been in Waymo, they've never drove so fast that
               | they don't have time to brake if the car in front of them
               | does. And they can multitask - while looking for oncoming
               | traffic to the left they can still watch the car in front
               | of them
        
         | itchyouch wrote:
         | I'd imagine NYC to be worse than Miami.
         | 
         | Miami seems to share enough similarity in warm weather to SF to
         | be a similar enough use case to expand while providing slightly
         | different driving conditions to be able to dip ones toes in to
         | the driving habits of a different city.
        
           | dangus wrote:
           | Yeah, bad drivers are easy for self-driving to deal with. You
           | just drive defensively and avoid the objects. It's the snow
           | and other sensor obstructions that make things difficult.
        
           | wil421 wrote:
           | Warm yes but SF doesn't have many thunderstorms and afternoon
           | downpours.
        
           | 15155 wrote:
           | NYC is unique in that you have no choice but to do extremely
           | dangerous things to actually operate in traffic at all in
           | most scenarios.
           | 
           | Streets, alleys, etc. are blocked or are narrowed by vehicles
           | and a myriad of other possible obstructions, all of which
           | could be concealing pedestrians.
        
           | filoleg wrote:
           | Absolutely agreed. Not even just because of the weather imo,
           | but because of the actual driving experience here itself.
           | 
           | I've lived and been driving for nearly 15 years in various
           | large cities (SF, ATL, Seattle, Portland, LA, etc.), both
           | cars and motorcycles, and NYC (where i currently live) is the
           | only place in the US I absolutely refuse to ever drive (or
           | ride) in.
           | 
           | Not just because it isn't as necessary here due to public
           | transit usefulness (which is also true), but also because
           | driving here feels like entering a warzone. Narrow roads and
           | parking, drivers being extremely on the edge and leaving a
           | few cm distance max between each car in traffic, constant
           | honking, having to make very dangerous maneuvers on the daily
           | just to get somewhere, and just the cutthroatness of the
           | whole thing here.
           | 
           | I genuinely believe that NYC will end up being the final
           | frontier for Waymo, after all the other places in the US
           | (aside from those with extreme snow conditions).
        
           | NickC25 wrote:
           | NYC is far better than Miami.
           | 
           | Miami sucks because half the people on the roads here don't
           | actually know how to drive.
           | 
           | They are immigrants that come from countries whose roads are
           | effectively lawless, or come from countries that have a
           | severely underdeveloped automobile infrastructure, or come
           | from countries where all that's needed to get a driver's
           | license is to pay someone.
        
         | jitl wrote:
         | Big +1. Here using the turn signal is iffy because some drivers
         | see that as a sign to speed up to try to overtake. I've had a
         | few close calls where I check my mirrors, everything is safe
         | for a lane change, turn on the blinker, and the guy in the left
         | lane floors it from 5 car lengths back to cut me off. Sigh.
         | 
         | The Waymo driver is very passive and defensive so I imagine it
         | will be quite slow compared to an Uber who is willing to fight
         | to make turns etc.
        
       | foobarian wrote:
       | Not from Miami, so I wonder (based on news etc.) if flooding is
       | ever an issue for traffic in and around the city?
        
         | jitl wrote:
         | It is during and after a hurricane. I wouldn't recommend taking
         | a robotaxi during a storm though.
        
         | Quinner wrote:
         | Flooding is absolutely an issue, during the rainy season (third
         | of the year) localized flooding is quite common. Some streets
         | are partially flooded on an almost daily basis, something human
         | drivers are used to but I imagine will pose a new challenge to
         | waymo.
        
       | lopkeny12ko wrote:
       | Jaguar discontinued the I-PACE and presumably does not
       | manufacture them anymore. It must be the case that Waymo is
       | cannibalizing their fleet capacity from other markets for every
       | new city launch.
        
         | jitl wrote:
         | Waymo has a zillion I-PACE vehicles in storage/prep and 2 new
         | models in the pipeline.
        
         | dangus wrote:
         | I can't imagine that they would have any major difficulties
         | installing their equipment on any other vehicle.
         | 
         | And they also probably have every little default finding I-PACE
         | vehicles that have gone unsold or are unwanted.
        
         | poniko wrote:
         | Waymo is changing to a Hundai iqonic 5, especially made for
         | them. In the meantime they have brought up all Jaguar they
         | could.
        
         | jeffbee wrote:
         | Jaguar did not manufacture the I-Pace at all. It was made by
         | Steyr, who also built a ton of them for Waymo.
        
           | 0xbadcafebee wrote:
           | TIL Magna Steyr is the largest contract manufacturer of
           | automobiles worldwide
           | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magna_Steyr)
        
       | fngjdflmdflg wrote:
       | This is important if nothing else because Miami sees much more
       | rain than SF and Phoenix:
       | 
       | Miami: 57 in. (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-
       | normals/#dataset...
       | 
       | SF: 25 in. (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-
       | normals/#dataset...)
       | 
       | Phoenix: 7 in. (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-
       | normals/#dataset...)
        
         | bbor wrote:
         | Good point! Though also worth mentioning that they're already
         | in Atlanta, which gets ~50in (and 59in so far this year,
         | despite the mind-bending "first October without rain in
         | recorded history")
        
           | newfocogi wrote:
           | I think they've announced they're headed to Atlanta in early
           | 2025. So they may be testing there, but I don't believe they
           | are at GA in GA :)
        
             | creaghpatr wrote:
             | They are frequently spotted but not yet available in ATL.
        
           | fngjdflmdflg wrote:
           | Good point, I guess I missed when that happened. Looking at
           | some news sites and Waymo's blog, it seems that they are
           | testing in Atlanta and will start accepting customers in
           | 2025.[0]
           | 
           | >It currently operates fleets of driverless cars in San
           | Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Phoenix. It also plans to
           | launch a robotaxi service in Atlanta in an exclusive
           | partnership with Uber.[1]
           | 
           | [0] https://waymo.com/blog/2024/09/waymo-and-uber-expand-
           | partner...
           | 
           | [1] https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/5/24313346/waymo-miami-
           | robo...
        
         | ecesena wrote:
         | Interesting random fact: when it rains, waymo turns on the
         | windshield wipers
        
           | falcor84 wrote:
           | Is this relevant? Are any of its cameras/sensors behind the
           | windshield? Or are there wipers directly on the external
           | cameras?
        
             | ecesena wrote:
             | I think it's just for passengers' experience
        
               | phantom784 wrote:
               | Probably also a legal requirement to run them during
               | rain, even if it's not actually needed for the self-
               | driving cars to work.
        
           | stemlord wrote:
           | Plenty of south florida rain is not helped by windshield
           | wipers. Anyway I wonder if waymo sensors actually have better
           | visibility in such conditions than people do
        
             | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
             | I think the comment you are replying to is implying that
             | it's a bit funny/weird that the wipers turn on, because
             | there aren't any sensors that are looking out the window to
             | see. (As others pointed out, it could just be default auto-
             | wiper functionality, and of course passengers still like
             | being able to see out the window, even if they aren't
             | controlling the vehicle).
        
           | pengaru wrote:
           | > Interesting random fact: when it rains, waymo turns on the
           | windshield wipers
           | 
           | The jaguar i-pace does this independent of the waymo use
           | case.
        
             | dgfitz wrote:
             | My 2011 Mazda also did this.
        
               | Grazester wrote:
               | Cars dating back to 2008 if not earlier. It can also be
               | annoying/doesn't work very efficiently
        
             | rdsubhas wrote:
             | The interesting part here is... the Waymo has no reason to.
             | There is no driver. All cameras and sensors are outside.
             | It's just for not freaking out the passenger :)
        
               | pengaru wrote:
               | > The interesting part here is... the Waymo has no reason
               | to. There is no driver. All cameras and sensors are
               | outside. It's just for not freaking out the passenger :)
               | 
               | We have very different thresholds for what's interesting.
               | 
               | The platform provides this feature out of the box, why
               | would waymo go out of their way to disable it. Obviously
               | potential occupants would appreciate seeing out the
               | windshield if it's raining, why that is interesting
               | escapes me.
        
               | Fricken wrote:
               | Waymo has wipers on it's LIDAR dome
               | 
               | https://www.reddit.com/r/oddlysatisfying/comments/6biyr8/
               | way...
        
           | jayd16 wrote:
           | They would probably have to go out of their way to disable
           | the auto-wipers, no?
        
             | tshaddox wrote:
             | They definitely go out of their way to make significant
             | modifications to their vehicles.
        
           | bushbaba wrote:
           | Rain + lidar = challenges
        
           | ecocentrik wrote:
           | I'm guessing you've never tried driving in a tropical
           | rainstorm. It's as bad a driving in heavy fog. Sometimes you
           | only really have visibility of a few feet.
        
             | 0xbadcafebee wrote:
             | The.... driverless car... doesn't look out the window....
        
               | ecocentrik wrote:
               | Who said anything about windows? I would imagine LIDAR
               | looses some accuracy when its refracted by raindrops.
        
         | ethbr1 wrote:
         | Also relevant, when it rains in Miami during the summer, it
         | _pours_.
         | 
         | As in, zero visibility for 15-30 minutes, then it's past.
         | 
         | So if it can handle Miami tropical rain, it should be okay with
         | all sorts of normal rain.
         | 
         | Out of curiosity, what's Waymo's current production sensor
         | suite mix? I'd assume lidar and radar would also be very
         | unhappy with the surrounding space suddenly being ~10%(?)
         | liquid water droplets.
        
           | david-gpu wrote:
           | I would expect service to be canceled while it is pouring
           | down. Do we have reasons to believe that they have the
           | ability to ride safely during heavy rain? I haven't been
           | keeping up.
        
             | tialaramex wrote:
             | If it's too dangerous for humans to drive (regardless of
             | whether they do anyway, humans do all manner of things
             | which are unacceptably dangerous) then I don't expect Waymo
             | to offer service even if they believe they technically
             | could have the Waymo driver [their software] continue to
             | deliver service.
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | The weather becomes too dangerous to drive because of
               | mechanical (lost of adherence) problems way sooner than
               | humans have sensorial problems anyway.
               | 
               | So if it's too dangerous for people, it's also too
               | dangerous for computers.
        
               | thegrim33 wrote:
               | You moved the goalpost by introducing the "too dangerous
               | for humans to arrive" qualifier. The person you're
               | replying to never said that. They asked if it would
               | refuse to drive in pouring rain. They never asked if it
               | would refuse to drive in scenarios where it's too
               | dangerous for humans to drive.
        
             | RivieraKid wrote:
             | They can handle heavy rain, see time 6:00:
             | https://youtube.com/watch?v=Bm1A3aaQnh0
             | 
             | From their August 2023 blog post:
             | 
             | > During this past winter season in California with its
             | record rain, high winds, and thunderstorms, we were able to
             | maintain 99.4% fleet uptime
        
               | david-gpu wrote:
               | Thank you, that was fascinating.
        
               | 1024core wrote:
               | How does it make out lane markings? Or is it all just
               | GPS-based?
        
               | AlotOfReading wrote:
               | Localization is primarily based on visual registration,
               | i.e. matching the current surroundings to the closest
               | data in its map. Lane markings are based on map data and
               | what it's able to see in real-time.
        
               | RivieraKid wrote:
               | Maybe similarly how humans do it.
        
               | mikepurvis wrote:
               | Humans do it super badly in a heavy rain/snow though.
               | We're basically blind and just toodle along following the
               | guy in front and hoping for the best.
               | 
               | A machine driver should not accept these conditions.
        
               | rstuart4133 wrote:
               | Where I come from that might be called a "shower". Heavy
               | rain here is like fog. It's so thick you can only see a
               | few meters, and the windscreen wipers can only give you a
               | brief glimpse of what's ahead.
               | 
               | It happens rarely. When it does, more cautious drivers
               | give up and pull over, even if they are on the freeway.
               | That makes travelling at high speed down on freeway at
               | high speed in those conditions near suicidal.
               | 
               | It only lasts a few minutes. I expect Waymo would handle
               | like any human. Stop, or just creep forward.
        
           | nilstycho wrote:
           | Far less than 10%. During a heavy downpour, by volume, about
           | one part in a million is liquid. In a cubic meter of heavily
           | rain, there are only a few tens of raindrops.
        
             | naming_the_user wrote:
             | Imagine if it were 10%, though. During the time it took for
             | a droplet to fall 1 metre, you'd have 10cm of water on the
             | floor.
             | 
             | I reckon it'd feel quite heavy.
        
               | ricardobeat wrote:
               | Rain falls at 9m/s, so in a second you'd almost
               | completely fill that space with 900 liters. Imagine an
               | olympic pool of water falling roughly every second.
        
             | deepsun wrote:
             | Yep, but what matters for radar/lidar is the projection. I
             | mean what percentage of 1 _square_ meter (not cubic meter)
             | is occupied by droplet projections. Or, in radial terms,
             | what percentage of "Solid angle" is occupied by rain
             | droplets.
        
           | CasperH2O wrote:
           | LiDAR sensors, like for example from SICK can have multiple
           | 'layers' of sensors, which combined with various algorithms
           | can handle rain pretty good.
        
           | diggan wrote:
           | > So if it can handle Miami tropical rain, it should be okay
           | with all sorts of normal rain.
           | 
           | I feel like a lot of "How well does it handle rain?" comes
           | down to how the roads are built and maintained (Huge puddles,
           | proper drainage, etc) rather than about the car itself, as
           | the car you could test by blasting it with water from
           | different directions and amounts.
        
             | alwa wrote:
             | There's also the question of how other drivers handle the
             | rain. And I have to imagine it's nontrivial to, on a test
             | range alone, permute the full range of different surfaces'
             | handling characteristics under different precipitation
             | conditions.
             | 
             | I wonder whether, like many human drivers, Waymos might be
             | wont to pull over and wait out the short-but-extreme Miami
             | squalls.
        
           | ibejoeb wrote:
           | Not just visibility in the rain, but diminished or fully
           | obstructed visibility due to ponding and full flooding. Then
           | there are the physical navigational problems associated with
           | that. They probably shouldn't be driving though a foot of sea
           | water.
        
           | porphyra wrote:
           | Lidars perform very well in the rain [1].
           | 
           | [1] https://ouster.com/insights/blog/lidar-vs-camera-
           | comparison-...
        
           | somethoughts wrote:
           | Interestingly is there a potential moral issue in the making
           | here? What happens if/when self driving dependency is so
           | prevalent that the majority of inhabitants in a city don't
           | know how to drive. In addition add the fact that self driving
           | cars don't have a steering wheel so even people who know how
           | to take over driving can't actually take over.
           | 
           | What happens if there's an event that requires a mass
           | evacuation such as a Category 5 hurricane and the major self
           | driving car companies deem it too risky to drive in the
           | conditions that precede the storm?
        
         | RivieraKid wrote:
         | Waymo can handle heavy rain, see time 6:00 here:
         | https://youtube.com/watch?v=Bm1A3aaQnh0
        
           | OnlineGladiator wrote:
           | And yet I regularly get stuck behind a Waymo in SF when
           | there's just a little bit of fog.
        
         | drewg123 wrote:
         | When I took Waymo in Phoenix, I booked a ride from a suburban
         | hotel to a restaurant in a strip mall. One of the things I
         | noticed was that I was picked up far away from the entrance of
         | the hotel (eg, not under the overhang that protects from sun
         | and rain, where every Uber has picked me up and dropped me
         | off). I recall thinking that it was good there was no weather
         | in Phoenix b/c I had to walk far enough I'd have gotten soaked
         | in a decent rainstorm.
         | 
         | Have they changed this?
        
           | dannyobrien wrote:
           | One thing I've noticed about the SF deployment is that it's
           | slowly gotten better at this. At first it was very cautious
           | about where it would pick you up/drop you off, but now it
           | offers much closer options (from a menu -- a bit like Uber at
           | airports).
           | 
           | I suspect this might be something that is human-added from
           | data collected in past trips.
        
           | tortilla wrote:
           | Also Waymo will not pick you up on private streets. I live in
           | a small community with a private street and I have to walk to
           | the nearest public one (2 mins).
        
         | ecocentrik wrote:
         | The rainfall can pose serious visibility risks that will be as
         | much of a challenge as picking up and dropping off customers on
         | a rainy day. Extreme high tides do still flood some roads on
         | Miami Beach with brackish water, which isn't something you want
         | to drive through in an electric car.
         | 
         | On the less challenging side, the city has zero snow, no road
         | ice to worry about.
        
       | mg wrote:
       | our service - which already provides over 150,000         trips
       | per week across Phoenix, Los Angeles, San         Francisco, and
       | Austin
       | 
       | Interesting. That's about 8 million rides per year.
       | 
       | I wonder how close they are to being profitable? As soon as they
       | are getting close to being profitable, they will probably scale
       | this up super fast.
       | 
       | I don't know how much Google invested into Waymo so far.
       | Something like $10B?
       | 
       | If they at some point make $10 per ride, they would only need
       | something like 50 million rides per year to justify that
       | investment with a p/e ratio of 20.
       | 
       | To go from 8M rides to 50M in 5 years they would have to increase
       | their capacity by 50% per year. Might be possible?
        
         | ezfe wrote:
         | Profitable from an operations perspective? Surely close since
         | they charge the same order of magnitude as an Uber/Lyft and
         | have fewer than one driver per vehicle (monitoring the
         | vehicles).
        
           | mg wrote:
           | We have to add the deprecation and maintenance of the car.
           | 
           | Plus I guess they need high resolution maps? Not sure if that
           | is a significant cost factor.
        
             | bbor wrote:
             | I mean, they're Google -- I'm guessing they're pulling out
             | their "pointcloud of the entire world" for this one. The
             | first point is a great one, tho; rideshare companies exist
             | by offloading as much cost as possible onto their
             | employees, and even then barely make it work.
             | 
             | Plus, at least some of the Waymos are super-fancy Jaguars
             | -- tho it looks like roughly 20K Jaguars to 65K Chrysler
             | minivans, according to Wikipedia. Still, they're all brand
             | new vehicles; even with bulk discount, that can't be cheap.
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | Waymo does not have 85k cars lol. In their latest CPUC
               | report they only have 480 cars in California and that is
               | their biggest market by far. If they had 85k cars and
               | only 175k rides per week that would be the worst business
               | in the history of businessing.
        
               | yellowstuff wrote:
               | It looks like they contracted to buy "up to" 20,000
               | Jaguars:
               | https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/mar/27/waymo-
               | sel...
               | 
               | Pretty effective press release! Nothing in it is untrue,
               | but it's obviously misleading even to careful readers.
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | On the other hand, they certainly have a much better
             | vehicle utilization than the other ride-app companies. They
             | cars are cooperating in covering an area, not competing for
             | the rides there.
        
         | bbor wrote:
         | I imagine it's hard to quantify "profit" with such a research-
         | driven org. It's like penciling out the profitability of the
         | metaverse after years of $XX billion dollar losses. In general
         | I get the sense that Waymo is more of a diverse investment than
         | a pure ride-hailing play; for example, as of 2020 they were
         | working for Volvo, Chrysler, Jaguar, and Nissan[1], presumably
         | for $$$.
         | 
         | It's also worth remembering that Zoox exists (Amazon's more
         | futuristic self-driving car play, no steering wheel at all),
         | and has not at all gone the way of Alexa/the Dodo bird (yet). I
         | expect them to make a big splash sometime in the coming decade,
         | personally.
         | 
         | That is, of course, assuming they survive regulatory capture by
         | Tesla, which would need a miracle or an unfair advantage to
         | beat these two at this point, even if they finally follow the
         | science on the need for LiDAR. Another big unknown is how the
         | electorate will react to self-driving cars becoming more than a
         | novelty; Elon Musk is absolutely correct that a backlash of
         | some kind is inevitable even if the safety stats pencil out,
         | IMHO. Trusting a machine is kind of inherently creepy - see
         | Prof. Weinersmith's lectures on the topic:
         | 
         | - https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/decisions
         | 
         | - https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/fsd
         | 
         | - https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/self-driving-car-ethics
         | 
         | [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/06/29/waymo-
         | an...
        
           | sixQuarks wrote:
           | Wow, I can't believe you think Tesla needs a miracle to beat
           | not only Waymo, but Zoox. This is laughable.
           | 
           | Are you not aware of FSD version 13 that just came out in
           | beta?
           | 
           | An early tester did the exact same pickup and drop off at the
           | same time of day between Tesla and Waymo yesterday. Tesla
           | took 15 minutes while Waymo took 40 minutes.
           | 
           | Watch for yourself. Tesla is going to destroy Waymo, they
           | can't compete
           | 
           | https://youtu.be/CfX8Lu9MHa0?si=cOYWNXjPiYP9R6L_
        
             | rsanek wrote:
             | in what markets is tesla able to drive autonomously without
             | any driver in the seat? from what I've read, none.
        
             | teractiveodular wrote:
             | And what makes you believe 13 will finally have decent FSD
             | when the previous 12 attempts using the same hardware did
             | not?
        
             | kernal wrote:
             | Until you can hop into the back seat of your Tesla and tell
             | it to drive you somewhere with complete confidence then
             | don't even compare the capabilities of Waymo and Tesla FSD.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _Tesla is going to destroy Waymo, they can't compete_
             | 
             | You're both wrong. This remains an open question.
             | 
             | Tesla has promised a Level 5 product but hasn't delivered;
             | FSD is Level 3. Waymo has a Level 4 product, but it
             | requires an expensive sensor suite.
             | 
             | If Tesla can get Level 4 with cameras only, you're right.
             | They win. We currently have no indication they've cracked
             | that. We also have no evidence it's not doable with current
             | technology.
        
         | jeffbee wrote:
         | Just a few hours ago Sundar Pichai said it's 175k/wk
         | https://youtu.be/kZzeWLOzc_4?t=926
        
         | avrionov wrote:
         | The number of trips increased 10x from Sep 2023 to August 2024.
         | https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/waymo-robotax...
        
         | oblio wrote:
         | Google has invested and also drawn external funding. From what
         | I've seen in the last 15 years since founding the lower bound
         | for their cost seems to be higher than $12bn and I can only
         | imagine expenses will only accelerate.
        
       | jeffbee wrote:
       | There were three things in Waymo's latest CPUC filing that
       | interested me. First, through the end of August, Los Angeles
       | still irrelevant. Over 85% of their California rides were still
       | in SF. Second, ridership in SF doubled in 90 days without a
       | significant expansion in either vehicles or trips per service
       | hour, but they had the cars out on the road more hours every day.
       | Third, the geographic concentration of their rides is extreme,
       | with a large fraction of trips starting near either the Ferry
       | Building or Fisherman's Wharf, which suggests that it is popular
       | with and useful to tourists.
        
       | deadbabe wrote:
       | It will be a showdown of man vs machine in the city with the
       | worst drivers in the nation. Interesting times.
        
         | timerol wrote:
         | Did you know that almost every city believes this about their
         | local drivers? I've gotten it in LA, Boston, NYC, DC, SF,
         | Philly, Atlanta, and Austin. Adding Miami to the list.
        
           | BWStearns wrote:
           | Having lived in most of those cities and in Miami I can say
           | Miami is definitely the most dangerous driving I've seen. And
           | my car insurance company certainly seems to agree.
        
             | 0xbadcafebee wrote:
             | Most Americans don't understand that Miami is full of
             | expats from the caribbean and latin america, some of whom
             | may be here illegally, and so can't get a driver's license.
             | They also may have grown up in places where they didn't get
             | a drivers license or learn the rules. So they literally
             | aren't supposed to be driving and never learned how.
             | Because they can't legally drive a car, they buy a beater
             | second-hand for cash, and it's never inspected, and of
             | course falls apart and causes accidents. Add to that the
             | crime in general, and yeah, insurance is $$$$$, and lots of
             | crazy driving. (It's a minority of people, but enough that
             | it creates more extreme outlier events than in most states)
             | 
             | Not to mention The Ticket Clinic, a private service to pay
             | a small fee to get out of traffic court. I probably had 10
             | different traffic violations thrown out, for $80 a pop,
             | when I grew up there in the 00's.
        
               | NickC25 wrote:
               | This right here.
               | 
               | I currently live in Miami. I've lived all over the
               | country. I'm from NYC burbs. I thought NYC drivers sucked
               | before I moved here almost a decade ago.
               | 
               | Miami's drivers are _horrible_ , mostly because most of
               | the people here have never been trained to actually
               | drive.
        
           | maybelsyrup wrote:
           | Yes, that's true, but in this case they're all actually
           | wrong. I've driven or lived in all of those cities, and
           | they're all placid next to Miami. It's not even close.
        
           | Quinner wrote:
           | LA Drivers aren't that bad, driving just is awful there
           | because the amount of traffic. NYC Driving is an absolute
           | pleasure compared to Miami driving. I have what should be an
           | easy ten minute commute and every day I am avoiding an
           | accident due to a driver doing something crazy you would
           | almost never see in another US city.
           | 
           | This is exacerbated by the dysfunctional government which is
           | happy to let developers do whatever they want without regard
           | to impact on traffic flow, while doing no investment in
           | infrastructure itself. I'm generally pro-growth, and I think
           | California goes too far with its restrictions, but living in
           | Miami has caused me to gain some appreciation for the reason
           | behind some of what California does.
        
           | kemotep wrote:
           | In my experience it is a State wide problem. I95 seemed to be
           | a speed _minimum_ of 95 if you didn't want to get run off the
           | road by everyone else for going too slow. I-4 (Daytona to
           | Tampa, through Orlando) had over 400 deaths caused by traffic
           | accidents one year. More than 1 death per mile of road. I
           | don't think 75 was any better, of course it was rough in
           | Atlanta too, but still.
           | 
           | My experience with Florida driving was not a great experience
           | for the few years I lived there.
        
             | deadbabe wrote:
             | In Florida it is common to see cars drive at speeds in
             | excess of 100mph.
        
       | jmyeet wrote:
       | That's an interesting choice for several reasons:
       | 
       | 1. Literally nobody in Florida can drive. Nobody indicates.
       | People run red lights. They speed on the hard shoulder to
       | overtake someone else who is speeding slightly less;
       | 
       | 2. There's a lot of things that come down to timing, like when
       | the bridges are up on the Venetian and over the Miami River. You
       | can also get trains blocking the entire of downtown;
       | 
       | 3. It seems like there's constant rerouting for closed roads,
       | typically due to contruction;
       | 
       | 4. Inclement weather. High winds and flooding. Biscayne Boulevard
       | is often called Lake Biscayne. 30 minutes can be the difference
       | between Miami Beach being dry and every road being 1 foot deep in
       | water (not an exaggeration); and
       | 
       | 5. What will be the covered area? I guess Phoenix and LA sprawl
       | too but what constitutes "Miami" goes south, west and north
       | pretty far. I mean there's no break between Miami, unincorporated
       | Miami-Dade County and Fort Lauterdale.
        
         | 0xbadcafebee wrote:
         | Yeah, I dunno if the team understands just how crazy Miami
         | driving is. Maybe they'll restrict it to Downtown, Miami Beach,
         | the Grove, etc to limit the chaos?
        
           | NickC25 wrote:
           | That won't limit the chaos. FWIW I went to whole foods
           | downtown today and nearly got hit twice. I live in Midtown,
           | so it's quite literally a 27-block trip. Some of the worst
           | driving (save for on 95) I've seen here has been either 1.
           | idiots on the Beach 2. idiots in Brickell or 3. idiots in
           | downtown.
           | 
           | People here suck at driving.
        
       | BWStearns wrote:
       | I am morbidly curious to see how Waymos interact with the Good
       | Vibes Only crazies. Miami is definitely going to be hard mode for
       | self driving.
        
         | tsunamifury wrote:
         | Haha that's nothing compared to its hometown of San Francisco.
         | People attack, destroy, burn waymos here. Let alone extreme
         | hills and visibility issues.
         | 
         | Miami will be comparably far simpler.
        
       | entropi wrote:
       | I feel like at this point someone needs to take a step back and
       | think about the general vision and overall goals of this whole
       | fully automated ride-hailing service thing.
       | 
       | I mean, what is the exact problem that's being solved here? I
       | don't mean "problem" like "solving the technical problem of
       | making a car move autonomously in a chaotic city" sense. I mean
       | what is the need that's being addressed here, exactly?
       | 
       | Ride-hailing workers were already often working for less than
       | minimum wage. They were also handling most of the maintenance and
       | customer relations aspects of the work, for basically free. Are
       | these sexy cutting edge tech firms with eye-watering budgets and
       | even more eye-watering valuations really going after whatever
       | these people were making?
       | 
       | If the problem is efficiently moving people around in a city;
       | well to be honest I find this premise a bit ridiculous. Call me a
       | European, but I find the idea that moving 1-2 people in private
       | vehicles on roads being superior than public transit -preferably
       | on rail- simply absurd.
       | 
       | Is the idea of living and moving around in a city full of
       | autonomous vehicles actually appealing to anyone? I personally
       | find the whole idea completely disgusting for a number of
       | reasons.
       | 
       | What is the goal here? Am I missing a grand vision? What is there
       | to get excited for? Sorry if this post has been a rant-y one. I
       | feel like I am really missing the point of most of these things.
        
         | falcor84 wrote:
         | As I see it, the biggest goal is safety - self-driving cars
         | seem to reduce accidents per distance driven by at least one
         | order of magnitude.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | Citation needed. I've seen claims like that, but none of them
           | from a source that stands up to scrutiny. Most such claims
           | come from the people promoting self driving cars and so they
           | have reason to "lie with statistics". Those who have unbiased
           | data (ie governments) are not talking about it from what I
           | can see.
           | 
           | I personally am significnatly safer than the average driver.
           | This comes solely down to me not drinking alcohol and thus I
           | never drive while drunk. The typical driver also isn't under
           | the influence and thus is significantly better than the
           | average. (I also try to follow other safety practices, but
           | I'm not sure if I'm really better - I'm aware of and pay
           | attention to one thing which makes me better - but what am I
           | not aware of that others are doing?)
        
             | AlotOfReading wrote:
             | Most people are safer than average most of the time. Risk
             | is a heavily bimodal. The issue is that people keep driving
             | even when it's risky. Maybe they _have_ to get to work even
             | though they didn 't sleep much, or they need to get home
             | from the bar, or they're road raging, or they don't have
             | someone with them to drive instead.
        
         | NoLinkToMe wrote:
         | 1. The global Taxi market is one that does a quarter trillion
         | dollar revenue per year.
         | 
         | 2. the biggest cost component is labour. The biggest safety
         | component is labour. The biggest service component is related
         | to labour.
         | 
         | 3. if you cut down cost of labour, make it more safe than
         | before, and provide a quiet and private ride allowing private
         | calls, conversations, music, you can beat other market
         | participants
         | 
         | So yes it's commercially interesting and that's all it needs to
         | be.
         | 
         | As for efficient and sustainable transport, there are certainly
         | criticisms to be had. But these must be addressed via
         | regulation, in my view. You can't expect taxi companies to
         | disappear. You can add a tax to fuel to encourage a transition
         | to electric. You can put a tax on noisy cars to encourage
         | silent ones. You can put a tax on size, to encourage 1-person
         | taxi pods for 1 person which will be 80% of the self-driving
         | taxi fleet, and encourage 100% utilisation of self-driving
         | busses for a small portion of the fleet. But you can't expect
         | companies to simply not do business in the taxi industry
         | because cars are imperfect from a sustainability/transport
         | point of view.
         | 
         | I'm not sure what's disgusting to you.
        
           | sixQuarks wrote:
           | It also expands the market. Currently bus riders can't afford
           | to take Ubers but would prefer to. People that would rather
           | take Ubers than walk or bike, and people who would rather
           | give up their car and do uber full time.
           | 
           | This will all be possible with low cost autonomous transport
        
         | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
         | > If the problem is efficiently moving people around in a city;
         | well to be honest I find this premise a bit ridiculous. Call me
         | a European, but I find the idea that moving 1-2 people in
         | private vehicles on roads being superior than public transit
         | -preferably on rail- simply absurd.
         | 
         | Much of the US like Huston and Miami is extremely lacking in
         | public transit, and will likely never build the infrastructure.
         | 
         | > Ride-hailing workers were already often working for less than
         | minimum wage.
         | 
         | ~50% of your fare goes to the driver.
        
           | entropi wrote:
           | > Much of the US like Huston and Miami is extremely lacking
           | in public transit, and will likely never build the
           | infrastructure.
           | 
           | I am not trying to be a contrarian here, but I fail to see
           | how that is an answer. I feel like what you say boils down to
           | "since we are not solving the problem at hand in a good way,
           | we decided to solve it in a worse way".
           | 
           | > ~50% of your fare goes to the driver.
           | 
           | Yet these ride-hailing companies who receive whatever is
           | remaining after the meager pay of the rider and other costs
           | only recently started to make actual profits. And even though
           | it feels like the prices for customers increased a lot over
           | the years, these companies are not exactly printing money.
        
             | palmtree3000 wrote:
             | > since we are not solving the problem at hand in a good
             | way, we decided to solve it in a worse way
             | 
             | It's a different "we". Rephrased:
             | 
             | since Houston's government is not solving the problem at
             | hand in a good way, Waymo decided to solve it in a worse
             | way
        
             | standardUser wrote:
             | Forget Houston. Half this country is suburban-to-rural with
             | development patterns that are profoundly ill-suited to mass
             | transit. Yet, all of those areas have a fantastic road
             | system already fully built out. Provide cheap rideshares
             | (by removing most of the labor cost, which are the vast
             | majority of the per-ride costs) and you've solved the
             | previously unsolvable problem of moving Americans from
             | point A to point B without each person needing to own and
             | pilot a car.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | Huston is in fact building transit. They have a large spread
           | out city which makes it a hard problem, but if you carefully
           | choose where you look you will find people living there who
           | don't have a car and just rely on transit and don't notice
           | any loss of lifestyle.
        
             | nunez wrote:
             | Houston is adding bus routes, and even those are hotly
             | contested in city hall. The city tried to expand the very
             | limited light rail we have but the vote for that failed.
             | 
             | We live in a super walkable part of Houston and still need
             | cars to go to many places outside of (and even within) the
             | Inner Loop. A 10-min journey in a car takes 45+ mins by
             | bus, and that's assuming peak schedules and buses that
             | arrive on time.
             | 
             | I actually tried to do the no-car thing for a few weeks. It
             | definitely impacted my lifestyle for the worst. The gym I
             | go to is 10 mins away by car. It's a 45 minute journey by
             | bus.
             | 
             | I needed to walk 15 minutes to the nearest bus stop
             | (despite being next to two well-trafficked cross streets).
             | When the bus finally arrived, I needed to pay with cash
             | because METRO didn't have Apple Pay set up at the time
             | (early 2024) and while you could use the Q Ticketing app,
             | it doesn't have a Watch app and I didn't bring my phone.
             | 
             | The bus didn't show on two occasions. The next buses were
             | 45 minutes away.
             | 
             | All of this is, again, in the most walkable, public transit
             | covered part of Houston.
             | 
             | I also lived in NYC for a long time. There, getting
             | anywhere was a 10 min walk to a train station, swiping you
             | MetroCard (Apple Pay these days), taking the train and
             | walking a bit to your destination. The only places that
             | were inconvenient to get to by train alone were deep in
             | Queens, Brooklyn or the Bronx; for those, you'd take the
             | bus, which usually ran every 10 mins.
        
           | comte7092 wrote:
           | *50% of your fare goes to the driver, as well as paying for
           | fuel, vehicle maintenance and depreciation, insurance, etc.
           | 
           | Without a driver those other costs don't go away.
        
             | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
             | It's ~75% going to the driver if you count the driver's
             | expenses as money that goes to the driver:
             | https://www.hyrecar.com/blog/how-much-does-uber-take-from-
             | dr...
        
               | standardUser wrote:
               | Not to mention tips. I feel an obligation to tip drivers,
               | in part because I know the economics of their job is
               | rough. I don't tip robots.
        
         | rangestransform wrote:
         | At least for me the goal is to have me seated, heated/cooled,
         | separated from smelly hobos and showtimes, not breathing in
         | crack smoke, not breathing in brake dust in subway tunnels, not
         | breathing in other peoples diseases. Anyone who tells me my
         | individual wants are disgusting will not get my vote.
         | 
         | For society, building rail infrastructure in the US is so eye
         | watering expensive and time consuming that transporting
         | everyone by electric AV might actually be an easier way to
         | decarbonize transport.
        
         | RivieraKid wrote:
         | Here are some benefits:
         | 
         | - Lower costs in the long-term. In the future it should be
         | cheaper than owning a car.
         | 
         | - Lot of space that is currently being used for parking will be
         | freed up.
         | 
         | - Convenience. It's a better experience than Uber and it will
         | be a better experience than a manually-driven car. One example
         | is when I want to drive to place A, take a 3 hour hike to place
         | B and then drive home.
        
           | fhub wrote:
           | Living in SF as a family of four with both adults working
           | from home... Owning 1 car and using Waymo/uber/lyft/e-Bike is
           | already significantly cheaper than owning 2 cars.
        
         | ipdashc wrote:
         | > Is the idea of living and moving around in a city full of
         | autonomous vehicles actually appealing to anyone? I personally
         | find the whole idea completely disgusting for a number of
         | reasons.
         | 
         | Assuming they're safe and cheaper than current Ubers/taxis?
         | Yeah I'd be fairly okay with it. I don't think it's necessarily
         | ideal, but I definitely can't relate with "completely
         | disgusting", personally.
         | 
         | Public transit is nice and all but walking to and then waiting
         | around at bus stops (especially in bad weather), squeezing into
         | a crowded bus or train, stopping at intermediate stops, making
         | transfers... there's definitely downsides. I don't use
         | Uber/Lyft/Waymo often but I have to admit walking outside and
         | having a climate-controlled, comfortable ride right there,
         | which takes you straight to where you're going, is pretty nice.
         | If it cost less and was more eco-friendly I'd probably use it
         | more; we'll see if they can tackle that.
        
         | triceratops wrote:
         | > moving 1-2 people in private vehicles
         | 
         | Eliminating the driver opens up so many options:
         | 
         | 1. Vehicles designed expressly for 1 or 2 people, so they take
         | up less space 2. Dynamic mini bus routes that can run all hours
         | of the day 3. Dynamic car pooling
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | > I mean, what is the exact problem that's being solved here?
         | 
         | There are people that will pay you to give them a ride from
         | point A to point B; Google has developed a cheaper and more
         | scalable way to give people a ride from point A to point B.
         | 
         | > Ride-hailing workers were already often working for less than
         | minimum wage.
         | 
         | And now Google made them way more productive, what leads to
         | some combination of higher wages, lower prices, and higher
         | profits. The government there has a moderate amount of control
         | over the proportion, it's not clear to me what values it will
         | pick.
         | 
         | > If the problem is efficiently moving people around in a city
         | 
         | Nah, it's certainly not. But if you solve that one, Google will
         | be forced to pivot into efficiently moving people into and out
         | of a city, and they can add a lot of value there.
        
         | CobrastanJorji wrote:
         | > Ride-hailing workers were already often working for less than
         | minimum wage.
         | 
         | That's the problem. People want taxis. Taxi drivers are both
         | underpaid and also expensive. Removing the driver is a very
         | expensive research process, but once you've done it and rolled
         | out the solution nationally, you're saving a lot of money.
         | 
         | And you're also creating a huge moat against competition. Say
         | Google "finishes" self-driving cars, stops needing to spend
         | nearly as much money on researching/developing the software,
         | and mostly has figured out scaling. It's now far cheaper for
         | Google to drive around than Uber. They can easily charge less
         | than basically everyone who isn't willing to spend billions
         | developing self-driving cars.
        
         | caadxv wrote:
         | The grand vision is to erode the middle class entirely, have
         | undocumented immigrants work in agriculture and automate the
         | rest.
         | 
         | Who can afford a Waymo ride in that scenario is an open
         | question, but perhaps the tech overlords dream of having a tiny
         | "elite" and a robot army that subjugates the farm workers, in
         | which case Waymo will no longer be required.
        
           | rangestransform wrote:
           | uber drivers deserve to be eroded entirely if their
           | occupation literally costs lives compared to an autonomous
           | vehicle
        
         | tuna74 wrote:
         | "I feel like at this point someone needs to take a step back
         | and think about the general vision and overall goals of this
         | whole fully automated ride-hailing service thing."
         | 
         | The goal is to make money for the owners and managers of those
         | companies.
        
       | bedobi wrote:
       | Imagine if instead Miami built MetroRail extensions to the beach
       | and everywhere else it should go, increased TriRail frequency and
       | express services, built a real network of fully segregated
       | greenways etc etc. It would turn transport nightmare into
       | transport heaven. We don't need more cars on the streets of Miami
       | or the I95...
        
         | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
         | Well that would cost Miami taxpayers hundreds of billions of
         | dollars, and this costs Miami taxpayers nothing.
         | 
         | It would also take decades.
         | 
         | This will be happening next year.
         | 
         | Build all the transit you want. You need something for the next
         | 30 years while you're doing that.
        
           | bedobi wrote:
           | no it would save miami and the state and the federal
           | government billions
           | 
           | trirail frequency increases can be done overnight
           | 
           | a greenway network can also be built quickly and cheaply
           | 
           | metrorail extension would cost more but still less than it
           | costs to build and maintain roads
           | 
           | but they are too busy spending billions building even more
           | car infra which will only make traffic and congestion even
           | worse
        
             | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
             | > no it would save miami and the state and the federal
             | government billions
             | 
             | Have you ever looked at the local budget of a US transit
             | authority?
             | 
             | They typically lose $2+ per passenger trip, and get bailed
             | out by the federal government.
             | 
             | Mass transit is not going to save Miami any money for
             | decades until ridership approaches Hong Kong levels.
             | 
             | Unless you count passing on expenses to the Federal
             | government as savings, and even then, it's still decades
             | out.
        
               | kemotep wrote:
               | With car usage on most roads free of charge at use and
               | maintenance also footed largely by the Federal
               | Government, it probably comes out cheaper long term to
               | invest in rail.
               | 
               | And every car off the toad makes driving more pleasant
               | for everyone who stays.
        
               | bedobi wrote:
               | lol the idea isn't to make money off transit, it's to
               | save money on roads
               | 
               | roads cost more than transit - a LOT more, and motorists
               | aren't paying anywhere near the cost of road construction
               | and maintenance, they're (quite literally) free-riding
               | subsidized trips on the taxpayer
               | 
               | traffic also destroys productivity, public health, life
               | expectancy etc etc so costs money in many more ways than
               | motorists not paying for them
        
               | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
               | > and motorists aren't paying anywhere near the cost of
               | road construction and maintenance, they're (quite
               | literally) free-riding subsidized trips on the taxpayer
               | 
               | So are public transit riders. And to a worse degree.
               | What's your point?
               | 
               | We should magically spawn mass transit systems overnight
               | and force everyone to ride them?
               | 
               | By the way, I'm a fan of mass transit, and live somewhere
               | in the US - specifically - where that's a viable option.
               | 
               | It just isn't a viable option in ~80% of the US, and even
               | if those areas start doing everything right to be mass
               | transit viable (no indication of that), it still takes
               | decades.
               | 
               | Rome wasn't built in a day.
        
               | bedobi wrote:
               | > So are public transit riders. And to a worse degree.
               | What's your point?
               | 
               | that this is wildly incorrect. roads cost more than
               | transit. a lot more. and road users are wildly more
               | subsidized than transit users.
               | 
               | > We should magically spawn mass transit systems
               | overnight
               | 
               | yes
               | 
               | > and force everyone to ride them?
               | 
               | you won't have to when the choice is between sitting
               | hours in traffic vs a fraction of the time on efficient
               | transit and greenways. people are not stupid.
               | 
               | > It just isn't a viable option in ~80% of the US
               | 
               | this is Miami, not middle of nowhere Iowa
               | 
               | > Rome wasn't built in a day
               | 
               | so it's correct of Miami to continue to "invest" in even
               | more roads to nowhere, like yet another new highway
               | bridge across the bay? that will take decades to complete
               | and cost billions, and cause MORE traffic?
               | 
               | like no lol just build the effing transit and greenways
               | and traffic will go down and the government and people
               | alike will save billions instead (and their time, and
               | lives)
        
             | vel0city wrote:
             | > trirail frequency increases can be done overnight
             | 
             | Increasing the frequency can't necessarily be done
             | overnight, unless they actually have the spare rolling
             | stock just sitting around along with all the workers needed
             | to operate and maintain the increased usage and the spare
             | budget to cover the increased operations costs. Otherwise,
             | they need to find the money to procure the rolling stock,
             | actually place the order, wait for the rolling stock to be
             | built/delivered, hire the people to operate and maintain
             | it, etc.
        
               | bedobi wrote:
               | yeah, all of which can be done overnight
        
               | vel0city wrote:
               | You can get expansions in funding approved, solicit bids
               | from multiple firms to make the trains, analyze and
               | approve the bid, get a factory to make potentially
               | several to dozens more trains, ship them across the
               | country (or potentially internationally), hire and train
               | a lot of workers, in less than 24 hours?
        
               | bedobi wrote:
               | you're just being obtuse
               | 
               | in the realm of infrastructure investment, all of that is
               | overnight
               | 
               | vs eg the yet another additional bridge to nowhere
               | they're currently building that is taking decades and
               | costing billions
               | 
               | but tell you and every other frothing at the mouth
               | motorist what, enjoy sitting in traffic
        
               | vel0city wrote:
               | > but tell you and every other frothing at the mouth
               | motorist what, enjoy sitting in traffic
               | 
               | You're being quite rude here about this for no reason and
               | projecting an identity on me that's not warranted. I'm
               | generally pro public transit, but I'm also a realist and
               | not suggesting it takes practically zero time to procure
               | additional rolling stock and hire a lot more people. A
               | lot of people think having a higher level of service is
               | just run the trains/busses more, but chances are they're
               | already running all the stuff they currently have the
               | capacity to own and operate. It's not like most transit
               | orgs have double the current capacity just sitting idle
               | and nobody thought to run them.
               | 
               | It took them three years after finding the funding and
               | getting all the approvals and signing the contracts to
               | add rolling stock last time. So probably more like four
               | or five years _at least_ to add some additional trains.
               | And that was replacing existing trains, not expanding the
               | fleet, so its not like they had to considerably expand
               | their existing workforce. I imagine most people would
               | consider four or five years not  "overnight".
               | 
               | The bus service near me is usually every 20 minutes.
               | That's terrible. I'd absolutely love it to cut that in
               | half. It also means it would cost _significantly_ more to
               | operate. Getting everyone to agree to pay that (a massive
               | task at the start), getting all the proposals put
               | together, soliciting bids, signing the contracts, getting
               | the new busses, hiring the new drivers, and actually
               | increasing the service isn 't something that is going to
               | happen in 2025. Probably also not 2026.
        
               | bedobi wrote:
               | the disconnect here is you have a status quo biased
               | thinking
               | 
               | the current state of things is, roads get all the money
               | and transit and bike infra get scraps and are poorly run
               | (so are FDOT road projects too btw)
               | 
               | no one disputes that?
               | 
               | what is being advocated is increasing trirail frequency,
               | implementing an actual network of segregated greenways
               | and expanding metrorail
               | 
               | you're saying "oh we can't do that"
               | 
               | but like, yes, we can? I promise you, if you send out
               | construction crews to apply green paint and put down
               | curbs for greenways, there's no natural law of the
               | universe that would make the paint not come out
               | 
               | and once it's in place, there's nothing preventing
               | millions of Miami residents from using them the same way
               | they're being used in NYC, Montreal, Barcelona etc etc
               | instead of having to get in the car for literally every
               | single trip and errand
               | 
               | likewise if you procure trains there's no magic wall that
               | prevents them from crossing into the state of Florida etc
               | etc
               | 
               | these things are trivially achievable, but misinformed
               | policymakers and voters alike think adding more roads is
               | somehow not costing any money (it costs way more) and
               | will fix traffic (it won't)
        
               | vel0city wrote:
               | > the disconnect here is you have a status quo biased
               | thinking
               | 
               | No, the disconnect here is you're being quite rude here
               | about this and projecting an identity on me that's not
               | warranted. And now you're even putting words in my mouth.
               | 
               | > you're saying "oh we can't do that"
               | 
               | I never once made the claim. I just argued it wouldn't be
               | "overnight".
               | 
               | None of my statements were about greenways or even about
               | expanding the Metrorail. Just that adding additional
               | capacity can and often does take a while to be approved,
               | acquired, and put into service. Stating it can be done
               | overnight is ignoring reality just as much as someone
               | arguing the paint somehow wouldn't come out to paint a
               | greenway.
               | 
               | I'm for them adding more trains and expanding the
               | existing lines. I'm for the bus service outside my house
               | being a lot better than it currently is. I'm also looking
               | at the fact the cities around me are talking about
               | slashing the funding instead of increasing it and seeing
               | the people around me cheering for such an idea. Me
               | thinking it can be improved overnight is a delusional
               | thought given the realities of today. Thinking Tri-Rail
               | can just snap their fingers and magically get approvals
               | and sign contracts and get trains delivered overnight is
               | also delusional.
               | 
               | Even _if_ we somehow changed people 's minds "overnight"
               | to want to increase train service, it'll still take a few
               | years to actually do all the process for acquiring and
               | implementing the additional capacity. Governments almost
               | always move slowly. Even when talking car infrastructure,
               | something which generally _is_ popular, it takes forever
               | to put together the budget proposals, get the funding
               | approved, get the bids together, purchase the materials,
               | and actually get to work. They 're still working on doing
               | projects related to a road bond package in my city passed
               | several years ago, and that's once again ignoring all the
               | planning that went into it just to get the proposal
               | together and get it passed.
               | 
               | None of this happens "overnight". Even just getting
               | everything together to officially change the traffic
               | patterns and put the paint down will take many months at
               | the fastest. And that's assuming it's a popular decision.
        
           | NickC25 wrote:
           | >Well that would cost Miami taxpayers hundreds of billions of
           | dollars, and this costs Miami taxpayers nothing. It would
           | also take decades.
           | 
           | Ironically enough, the county approved and passed a tax back
           | in 2000 to expand the MetroMover. Not a single inch of rail
           | has been built since. Wonder where all the tax revenue went?
        
         | davidcbc wrote:
         | But then a rich person might have to share a ride with a poor
         | person and we can't have that
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | That doesn't follow. Nobody has said we will force the rich
           | out of their limos.
           | 
           | Some of the rich will chose to use transit though. There is a
           | group of rich people who got that way by being cheap and that
           | group will use transit if possible just because it is
           | cheaper. They don't care about sharing rides with poor people
           | at all.
           | 
           | There is a group of people who appear rich - they live in
           | mansions, drive limos. They are also in dept up to their eyes
           | and one wrong move will put them out on the streets.
        
         | whimsicalism wrote:
         | point to point transport is nice. trains are ridiculously
         | expensive nowadays. US governments largely can't do large infra
         | projects anymore
        
           | bedobi wrote:
           | they can, they just malinvest in roads that only increase
           | traffic and make things worse and cost even more
           | 
           | instead of transit which saves money
        
             | whimsicalism wrote:
             | > that only increase traffic
             | 
             | Increase traffic of people successfully getting from point
             | a to point b, that is what induced demand is.
             | 
             | > instead of transit which saves money
             | 
             | Oh yeah, I'm sure saving on that California HSR project
             | that has been in design since 2008.
        
       | fixprix wrote:
       | Waymo is cool, but I have no idea how it is going to compete with
       | the tsunami coming that is CyberCab. Tesla will be mass producing
       | this smaller, cheaper vehicle like nothing else. Covering the
       | entire country with self driving vehicles.
       | 
       | I don't know how Waymo can possibly compete with that. Their
       | deployment by city is slow, their hardware is expensive, slown to
       | produce, and not purpose built for self driving.
        
         | oblio wrote:
         | > Waymo is cool, but I have no idea how it is going to compete
         | with the tsunami coming that is CyberCab. Tesla will be mass
         | producing this smaller, cheaper vehicle like nothing else.
         | Covering the entire country with self driving vehicles.
         | 
         | Don't fall for the hype.
        
         | tomp wrote:
         | The bigger question is, how can Tesla with it's non-working
         | "full self driving" compete with Waymo's working _actual_ self-
         | driving.
        
           | asdff wrote:
           | I've seen teslas full self driving drive me on surface roads,
           | on the highway, and even navigate the lot, find parking, and
           | park the car. In what way is it non working at this point?
           | Waymo doesn't even do highway.
        
             | ra7 wrote:
             | > _In what way is it non working at this point?_
             | 
             | Because you're in the driver's seat supervising at all
             | times? If it worked fully autonomously, you would be in the
             | backseat.
        
             | RivieraKid wrote:
             | But not with a sufficient reliability and safety. You need
             | that to do what Waymo does. Waymo could do highways 15
             | years ago, right now they use highways in autonomous mode
             | but only with employees or empty, so they will presumably
             | launch soon.
             | 
             | Imagine 2 drivers, one does something dangerous every hour,
             | the other every 1000 hours. If you observe them for one
             | hour, they may appear identical to you. Yet, one is 1000x
             | better.
        
             | danans wrote:
             | > I've seen teslas full self driving drive me ...
             | 
             | > In what way is it non working at this point?
             | 
             | It's killing people:
             | 
             | https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/18/24273418/nhtsa-tesla-
             | ful...
        
             | PittleyDunkin wrote:
             | It's not "full" self driving despite their advertisements
             | (which shouldn't even be legal to use). It can't handle
             | basic weather or bad drivers or confusing road markings.
             | 
             | Granted, neither can many humans. But the bar should be
             | many times higher if the operators are relieved of
             | liability.
        
           | maverickmax90 wrote:
           | What's your source for this claim?
           | 
           | Please consider sharing sources before making baseless
           | claims.
           | 
           | I've seen this exact comment multiple times. You need to
           | check your sources. You might be living in a bubble.
        
             | rurp wrote:
             | Literally the company selling FSD doesn't think that it's
             | actually fully self driving. They strongly imply that it is
             | in their consumer marketing, and have done so for many
             | years, but any time Tesla interacts with regulators or the
             | legal realm they are adamant that the system isn't level 4
             | or 5, and the human driver is 100% responsible for handling
             | any and all mistakes.
        
           | sixQuarks wrote:
           | How about this?
           | 
           | Tesla's latest FSD beat Waymo by 30 minutes. Same route and
           | same time of day.
           | 
           | https://youtu.be/CfX8Lu9MHa0?si=cOYWNXjPiYP9R6L_
        
             | ra7 wrote:
             | > _Same route and same time of day._
             | 
             | Just a small difference: one of them did it without a
             | driver.
        
             | magicalist wrote:
             | This is literally just a video of getting somewhere midday
             | in LA via highway vs surface streets? Waymos don't drive on
             | highways in LA yet (just in the bay area, I think?)
        
         | Charlie_Black wrote:
         | Do you believe Musk's timeline estimates?
        
         | threeseed wrote:
         | Waymo doesn't make the cars. Geely does.
         | 
         | And they make the same number of cars each year that Tesla
         | does.
         | 
         | Also deployment by city exists because each state will have
         | different regulations.
        
         | sixQuarks wrote:
         | You are exactly right. Look at how you're getting downvoted.
         | 
         | It's so disappointing that this so-called tech community is so
         | deranged because of their hatred of Musk so much that they're
         | not willing to look at the facts.
         | 
         | If it was any other company doing what Tesla is doing with
         | their self driving, the comments here would be completely
         | different.
        
         | seanmcdirmid wrote:
         | I don't see a taxi service from Tesla yet, while I've rode in a
         | waymo in SF, so it is hard for me to see how Tesla is winning
         | in the auto-taxi segment yet. Maybe their bet pays off and they
         | dominate, or maybe waymo keeps expanding while Tesla keeps
         | talking about vaporware, who knows?
        
         | rurp wrote:
         | Sure, right, it should be operational by 2017 at the latest,
         | according to the Tesla CEO.
        
       | danielvaughn wrote:
       | I'm sure they know much more than me and have thought this
       | through, but it feels like Miami is an absolutely _awful_ choice.
       | Traffic is notoriously chaotic there. I've driven in LA, Chicago,
       | NYC, Philadelphia, SF, Miami, etc. It's by far the worst place to
       | drive, moreso even than Manhattan.
        
         | 1024core wrote:
         | But have you driven in Boston?
        
           | whimsicalism wrote:
           | boston driving is so much better than SF+LA driving because
           | at least what the drivers do there _makes sense_
        
           | mankyd wrote:
           | Nah. I live in Boston. I strongly prefer public transit, but
           | I'll take driving here over most other cities, any day of the
           | week.
           | 
           | The _road layout_ is awful, but drivers are pretty
           | cooperative on the whole. Certainly more than my years
           | driving in DC, for instance.
           | 
           | Granted, you need to be commmital here: if you put on your
           | turn signal, drivers will generally make space for you to get
           | in - briefly - but you need to be quick to take advantage of
           | the gap. I could see Waymo being too slow to the draw for
           | this, based on what I've seen online.
        
         | oblio wrote:
         | It's probably based on where public administrations are
         | supportive. Isn't Florida notorious for being car centric?
         | 
         | One more lane, bro, one more self driving car company, bro...
         | :-)
        
         | s1artibartfast wrote:
         | Why do you think that makes a bad market for a driverless car?
         | 
         | If driving is miserable, that means lots of people that dont
         | want to do it. If traffic is chaotic, that means a good place
         | to improve their software.
        
         | ecocentrik wrote:
         | Miami is a challenging place to drive for most Americans with
         | drivers from dozens of different countries on the roads at any
         | given time, very bad traffic that makes drivers impatient and
         | sometimes aggressive. Driving in Manhattan was way more chaotic
         | than anything I experienced in Miami but that was back in the
         | days of yellow cab dominance and those bastards made full use
         | of their bumpers as offensive implements.
        
         | rddbs wrote:
         | The unique difficulties of driving in Miami might be the reason
         | this is a good choice, not the reason it's a bad one.
        
         | kilroy123 wrote:
         | I think that's the point, isn't it? Get the fleet deployed and
         | learn how to drive in very tough cities (LA, Miami, etc.)
        
       | simonw wrote:
       | "... we'll work to open our doors to riders in 2026". I guess it
       | takes a while to set up for a new city!
        
       | oblio wrote:
       | Reminder that cars reshaped urban environments and generally for
       | the worse, and self driving cars have a very solid chance to do
       | the same thing:
       | 
       | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=040ejWnFkj0
       | 
       | If you have an hour, highly recommended video. A bit too
       | doomerist but the threat is there.
       | 
       | Keep in mind that it's not just about tech (which can be
       | amazing), but also about social aspects, money and politics
       | (which can be atrocious and generally override morality and
       | technology).
        
       | SubiculumCode wrote:
       | Question: Do Waymo rides ever get on a freeway within their
       | operating territory?
        
         | ra7 wrote:
         | Not yet. Freeway rides are open to employees only for now, so
         | I'd imagine it's pretty close to being available to the public.
        
       | Rebuff5007 wrote:
       | I'm so curious about how the internal dev teams feeling about all
       | this scaling. Four cities across 3 states -- surely there are
       | differences in road signs, lane markings, emergency procedures,
       | etc. Let alone the sheer volume of data of doing hundreds of
       | thousands of miles ever week!
       | 
       | Massive kudos to them if they are able to do all this without
       | things being aflame on the inside...
        
         | whamlastxmas wrote:
         | My understanding is they have to make extremely detailed maps
         | of where they operate and at great expense, and everything sort
         | of breaks when anything changes. So lots of work indeed!
        
           | dyauspitr wrote:
           | >everything sort of breaks when anything changes
           | 
           | What is "your understanding" based on?
        
           | threeseed wrote:
           | Waymo doesn't rely on the maps to operate. It just helps with
           | redundancy in case it's unable to see.
           | 
           | And it's just a matter of the cars driving through each of
           | the streets and working with local authorities.
        
           | ra7 wrote:
           | Your understanding is wrong. They work perfectly well when
           | road features change and the cars are able to update maps in
           | real time. See https://waymo.com/blog/2020/09/the-waymo-
           | driver-handbook-map...
        
             | whamlastxmas wrote:
             | Why does it only operate in such tiny areas?
        
         | Hasu wrote:
         | > Four cities across 3 states
         | 
         | This is actually a scale up to five cities across four states:
         | 
         | > ...which already provides over 150,000 trips per week across
         | Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Austin
         | 
         | Which of course only adds to your point!
        
           | joshjob42 wrote:
           | Actually they Miami would be #6. They are also starting to
           | operate in Atlanta early next year along with Austin. So 6
           | cities across 5 states.
        
         | Fricken wrote:
         | Sundar Pichai recently claimed Waymo plans to be in 10 cities
         | by the end of 2025.
        
       | flkiwi wrote:
       | The sheer number of these things that are going to get shot by
       | angry Miami drivers ...
        
       | drcwpl wrote:
       | Come to Europe please
        
         | BryanBeshore wrote:
         | Why do I feel like a regulator would immediately file a suit
         | for $1B+ if Waymo did this?
        
       | dartos wrote:
       | Let's see how they do with Miami drivers.
        
       | nextworddev wrote:
       | This is terrible. Driving Uber is an important source of income
       | for recent immigrants from LatAM countries.
        
         | crowcroft wrote:
         | We should have cut things off back when we had the chance and
         | never let the stocking frame do this to us.
        
       | twobitshifter wrote:
       | How is Waymo going to continue with the iPACE? Jaguar has ceased
       | production of all cars and they are trying to reinvent themselves
       | as an electric Rolls Royce brand.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2024-12-05 23:02 UTC)