[HN Gopher] Self-Funding Harberger Taxes
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       Self-Funding Harberger Taxes
        
       Author : surprisetalk
       Score  : 44 points
       Date   : 2024-12-04 17:03 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (gwern.net)
 (TXT) w3m dump (gwern.net)
        
       | PaulHoule wrote:
       | I'd note you have to pay money to extend the life of a patent so
       | a patent perceived to be worthless by its inventor expires
       | quickly.
        
       | tptacek wrote:
       | As always, and tediously, I want to remind people that the
       | lifetime of the artist should largely be irrelevant in thinking
       | about rewarding the creation of new works. An author writes their
       | most lucrative bestseller when they're 20 years old, makes K
       | dollars; another author writes their most lucrative book at 75,
       | makes N dollars. Why are K and N different? The answer today is
       | mostly that they're not, because the lifespan of the copyright
       | itself is taken into account when compensating the author.
       | Without that system, the 75-year-old author would earn
       | drastically less than the 20-year-old, despite creating the same
       | value.
        
         | alistairSH wrote:
         | I'm confused... Are you saying the future value of the
         | copyright is priced into the retail sales price of the book
         | and/or % of that paid back to the author (or their estate) as
         | royalties?
        
           | andrewla wrote:
           | They are saying that when an author is looking to sell the
           | rights to their work, the price of that work is discounted
           | based on the expected lifetime of the author.
           | 
           | So in a parallel universe where the same work is written by a
           | 20 year old and an 80 year old, the 20-year-old artist can
           | sell the perpetual rights for more than the 80-year-old
           | because the new rights holder will get 60 years of protection
           | in the former case and only 10 years in the latter case.
           | 
           | I don't think I agree with the GP on the conclusion, but this
           | part anyway seems logically sound to me.
        
             | alistairSH wrote:
             | Hmmmm, need to think through this a bit. Most authors earn
             | more from royalties than anything else, so when discussing
             | "rewarding the creation of new works", that's where my mind
             | went.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | Right, but those royalties are based on the value the
               | copyright owners derive from holding the copyright.
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | I think that's backwards. The vast majority of all creative
         | works make no significant profit past the first couple years of
         | release. Publishers pay out based on what they estimate the
         | work is going to make in the first couple of years, and
         | discount the rest to 0.
         | 
         | The publisher might know that the work of a 75 year old might
         | actually have some back catalog value, so might be willing to
         | pay for it. For a 20 year old, they don't know that and aren't
         | going to pay for it, even if the copyright they're buying
         | likely has a much longer time frame.
         | 
         | If you used a 30 or 40 year old as your young example, I might
         | buy the argument. Taylor Swift's back catalog as a 30 year old
         | is worth hundreds of millions. Taylor Swift's back catalog as a
         | 20 year old likely had an expected value close to zero, and
         | there are very few 20 year olds as successful as Taylor Swift
         | was at that age.
        
           | tptacek wrote:
           | It can't be "backwards". You can believe the effect is muted
           | by the new-release window, such that for the majority of all
           | titles --- let's say, for books, the midlist titles --- a
           | drastic reduction in the length of copyright wouldn't impact
           | the comp authors would get from publishers. But you can't
           | logically argue about the sign of the effect.
           | 
           | Meanwhile, virtually all of the copyright-driven industries
           | are portfolio-based hit-seeking businesses. The comp for
           | creators prices in some low (1-10%?) probability that a title
           | will be a breakout success. Those returns would in fact be
           | impacted by a drastic reduction in copyright terms.
           | 
           | Either way though: none of this matters. The point is that
           | there isn't a logical argument for tying compensation to the
           | lifespan of the author. Authors reap rewards today for
           | returns on their IP that occur posthumously.
        
       | buzer wrote:
       | One question here would be that how derivative works are handled?
       | Like let's use some character as an example. They appear in movie
       | with other characters. Would you need to pay for each character
       | and movie separately? If movie gets bought out would that allow
       | making other works based on characters in the movie?
       | 
       | Also, would licenses terminate when copyright gets bought out?
        
       | bastloing wrote:
       | As AI takes hold it's obvious parents and copyrights will have to
       | be revisited.
        
         | pfdietz wrote:
         | AI generation of inventions could be used as a massive DOS
         | attack on the patent system, by producing millions or billions
         | of inventions immediately placed into public view as prior art.
        
       | niceice wrote:
       | It was surprising to only recently learn how little money Gwern
       | makes and lives off of.
       | 
       | And then beautiful to see how the internet responded.
       | 
       | https://x.com/Suhail/status/1857102763249004655
        
         | kelvinjps10 wrote:
         | Where it was mentioned?
        
         | jaggederest wrote:
         | For posterity, what's the current ballpark? I enjoyed that when
         | I looked for it I found his comments from 2013 on HN talking
         | about it.
        
           | niceice wrote:
           | From https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a42key59cZQ
           | 
           | Dwarkesh Patel
           | 
           | How do you sustain yourself while writing full time?
           | 
           | Gwern
           | 
           | Patreon and savings. I have a Patreon which does around
           | $900-$1000/month, and then I cover the rest with my savings.
           | I got lucky with having some early Bitcoins and made enough
           | to write for a long time, but not forever. So I try to spend
           | as little as possible to make it last.
           | 
           | I should probably advertise the Patreon more, but I'm too
           | proud to shill it harder.
           | 
           | It's also awkward trying to come up with some good rewards
           | which don't entail a paywall. Patreon and Substack work well
           | for a lot of people like Scott Alexander, because they like
           | writing regular newsletter-style updates but I don't like to.
           | I just let it run and hope it works.
           | 
           | Dwarkesh Patel
           | 
           | Wait if you're doing $900-1000/month and you're sustaining
           | yourself on that, that must mean you're sustaining yourself
           | on less than $12,000 a year. What is your lifestyle like at
           | $12K?
           | 
           | Gwern
           | 
           | I live in the middle of nowhere. I don't travel much, or eat
           | out, or have health insurance, or anything like that. I cook
           | my own food. I use a free gym. There was this time when the
           | floor of my bedroom began collapsing. It was so old that the
           | humidity had decayed the wood. We just got a bunch of scrap
           | wood and a joist and propped it up. If it lets in some bugs,
           | oh well! I live like a grad student, but with better ramen. I
           | don't mind it much since I spend all my time reading anyway.
        
       | andrewla wrote:
       | Over time I have become more and more skeptical of Harberger
       | taxes, which I first encountered somewhere in the works of
       | Heinlein.
       | 
       | The idea is that you are taxed based on your own estimate of the
       | value of a thing, with the estimate being public and binding as a
       | sale price.
       | 
       | This sounds incredibly simple, with a natural mechanism of
       | enforcement; if you undervalue a thing to pay lower taxes then
       | you risk losing it at that price.
       | 
       | But I don't think this would work in reality. Pricing things is
       | super hard. In a very liquid market it is difficult but doable,
       | in an illiquid market (of one non-fungible asset) it is
       | practically impossible. At what cadence do you update the
       | estimate? How long is it binding for? If the value suddenly
       | changes, how long a grace period do you have before you have to
       | update the price?
       | 
       | You can try to patch this by saying that you have a right of
       | first refusal -- that if someone offers to buy the asset at the
       | price then you can accept their valuation as the new estimate of
       | the price, and pay taxes going forward on the new value.
       | 
       | But then this defeats the point of the process because
       | effectively the valuation is non-binding. So you have to put in
       | all sorts of structures to prevent abuse -- maybe levy fines for
       | past underpayment when the pricing is adjusted, or limit the
       | number of re-pricings per time period.
       | 
       | And it incentivizes nuisance bidders, because owners will defend
       | their property. So you have to put in restrictions like forcing
       | escrow before the sale, or limiting bidding by a single entity.
       | 
       | Not to mention the difficulty in maintaining this registry of
       | ownership of these assets, along with how to deal with more
       | complicated deals about the rights involved -- film rights vs. tv
       | rights vs. print rights, rights to individual characters,
       | temporary licenses, etc., and all of that needs to be mechanized
       | to allow a certain fixed list of the types of rights that can be
       | granted, which right now is as extensive as a contract can
       | contain -- if Sherlock Holmes were still in copyright, what if I
       | just wanted to license Watson or make a film about Moriarty?
       | 
       | This is all just hopeless technocratic pie-in-the-sky dreaming.
        
         | nightski wrote:
         | Another problem in my mind is most creators could not afford
         | the taxes for a high enough valuation (early on at least), but
         | investment groups like blackrock could buy up all the
         | copyrights/patents on the cheap. It also does not prevent the
         | Disney scenario when a copyright is absurdly profitable. They
         | could pay the tax indefinitely.
        
         | jaggederest wrote:
         | There's an even simpler reason to be skeptical: They're
         | complicated, and people don't understand complicated things, so
         | they'll never happen.
         | 
         | Most people don't even correctly understand how progressive
         | taxation works, so anything more complicated than that is dead
         | on arrival.
        
           | andrewla wrote:
           | I think the appeal is that it sounds simple -- you say "I
           | bought my house for $1M, and I don't want to move, so I set
           | the value at $2M, so I have to spend $20,000/yr to keep it,
           | or someone can give me $2M and take the house."
        
             | jaggederest wrote:
             | I think that drastically underestimates the (american, at
             | least) knee jerk opposition to taxes, discomfort with
             | novelty, and fear of having to move. Why would anyone go
             | from a place where they pay a flat percentage of the
             | assessed value to this new framework?
        
               | maxerickson wrote:
               | For the love of market efficiency!
        
             | notahacker wrote:
             | That's the sort of thing that sounds very _unappealing_ to
             | the average voter.  "I have to pay property tax on
             | substantially more than it's worth and keep raising it on a
             | regular basis, otherwise some property speculator might
             | make me homeless" is much easier to understand than
             | notional efficiency benefits.
             | 
             | Same goes for the Harberger tax on copyright, which is
             | basically "only people and corporations who are already
             | rich deserve to extract market value from their creations"
        
             | currymj wrote:
             | realistically there should just be some kind of homestead
             | exemption for one primary residence. several states already
             | have such a system, where you get reduced or frozen
             | property taxes, and protection during bankruptcy.
        
           | m463 wrote:
           | might be that the more onerous a taxation system, the more
           | likely society will implode.
           | 
           | the stamp act, the townshend act, the boston tea party,
           | etc...
           | 
           | might be "tax what you want less of" might be... citizens.
        
         | stonemetal12 wrote:
         | >if you undervalue a thing to pay lower taxes then you risk
         | losing it at that price. This sounds incredibly simple...
         | 
         | That doesn't sound so simple to me, everything has to be for
         | sale all the time and\or you over pay on your taxes. Value your
         | vehicle at market rate to pay the "right" taxes, anybody in the
         | market for a vehicle can come buy yours at $1 over market rate
         | if they want to. (It costs 2$ to drive to the closest one being
         | sold at market rate, so it makes economic sense.) The only way
         | to even partially defend yourself is to value your property way
         | over market rate and pay taxes higher than the market value
         | would suggest. Basically you have to value your stuff at market
         | rate plus how much I would be annoyed to loose said item.
         | 
         | Piss off a billionaire? Guess who is never going to live
         | indoors again.
        
           | bombcar wrote:
           | You also have the silly situation where _everything_ I own is
           | worth _more_ to me than it is worth - otherwise I 'd have not
           | bought it.
           | 
           | And even if my car is worth $5k, not having to sell it and
           | buy another one (even if I can find it) is worth a premium.
           | 
           | It's likely that _something_ like Harberger taxes could work
           | in certain situations, but not normal people ones.
        
         | danaris wrote:
         | The most glaring problem with taxes of this form in the system
         | we have today is that there is no way to price it that does not
         | either price regular people out of the system or allow all
         | regular people's assets that fall under this scheme to be
         | purchased for (relative) peanuts by the superwealthy and
         | megacorporations.
         | 
         | That is to say, the prices you'd have to set to prevent very
         | wealthy bad actors from just buying up _everything_ and holding
         | everyone hostage to it are so high that regular people would
         | never be able to sustain them. And once they have obtained all
         | the Stuff, even if they _can 't_ change the rules to make it so
         | they no longer have to pay, they only have to keep the
         | Harberger prices high for a fairly short time for the rents
         | they charge us to bleed us dry enough that we have no chance of
         | buying any of it back.
        
       | andrewla wrote:
       | I think asking people to put a value estimate on a thing is a
       | hopeless task. The idea of having some sort of structured market
       | for it is even more hopeless.
       | 
       | Better to just have a fee structure that starts off as the price
       | of a carton of eggs and doubles every year that you extend it.
        
       | AlotOfReading wrote:
       | The dynamics are more interesting if you make a small change to
       | this scheme: force the owner to accept public domain buyout if
       | the value in the fund (+ interest less overhead) exceeds the
       | current valuation. It also acts as a built-in termination period
       | for orphaned works, since there may be no owner to actually
       | accept an offer.
        
       | vessenes wrote:
       | Gwern, some anecdotal thoughts from the world of business, where
       | this sort of blind committed self pricing is sometimes called a
       | "Mexican Standoff". Same idea on, say a cap table -- both parties
       | agree that in event of a dispute, they will make sealed binding
       | offers for the whole company; higher offer must pay. I often
       | recommend this to young startup CEOs when they have a team they
       | haven't worked with before, and I've occasionally suggested it to
       | business partners.
       | 
       | Although I like the intuitive simplicity and game theoretic
       | aspects of the arrangement, I've never seen it get through a
       | partnership agreement or shareholder agreement round of redlines.
       | Often lawyers feel nervous about it, and they'd prefer to
       | litigate anyway; a space they are comfortable assessing and
       | handicapping (and billing for). Often one party feels less
       | sophisticated than the other, and thinks there might be a trap
       | somewhere in there. Most sense, I think, that this sort of
       | arrangement benefits the wealthier party. I think Harberger taxes
       | suffer from the same sort of problem: the most money wins the
       | asset.
       | 
       | You mention, rightly, the absolute trash heap that Brian Herbert
       | has made of Dune. You speculate, wrongly, I think, that this
       | arrangement would have cut him out and protected the IP. Au
       | contraire -- I think Brian has done very well financially from
       | this IP ownership -- sadly, enshittification pays -- and I don't
       | see any reason to think that better stewardship would have
       | resulted in more money to go buy out the IP than Brian's made.
       | 
       | Particularly in a world of art and human creative output, I'm
       | negative on forcing IP rights to the wealthiest owners -- I'd
       | prefer a system that leaves it in the hands of people who might
       | have a variety of interests that could dominate, even if that
       | gives us some tragedies in exchange.
       | 
       | Anyway, a system of transparent IP with buyout values (or
       | reference values) attached is not, to my mind, uniformly better
       | than what we have -- the reference values will be wrong, they
       | will not capture non-monetary value, and they don't guarantee a
       | ready buyer. It's hard to see what we'd gain; I agree that we
       | wouldn't lose a lot, but there's a lot of social and legal work
       | to implement between here and there.
        
       | JackYoustra wrote:
       | This is a really good idea, at least for now on large-scale
       | abstract things such as radio spectrum and airline gates.
       | Problems about liquidity can be solved with access to finance,
       | which exists on easy to model things (such as, again, radio
       | spectrum and airline gates) and then gradually expanded over
       | time.
        
       | FactKnower69 wrote:
       | imagine spending weeks crafting pages of incomprehensible
       | reformist apologia for a uselessly broken and totally unnecessary
       | system
        
       | doctorpangloss wrote:
       | Is dynasty (family) inheritance of copyright assets (books and
       | music) really that big of a problem?
       | 
       | Was Dune mismanaged? We got a lot of movies, TV shows and a
       | famous video game from it!
       | 
       | Was Borges estate mismanaged? Wiki talks about two examples that
       | are not dramatic.
       | 
       | What is the idea?
        
         | HideousKojima wrote:
         | >We got a lot of movies, TV shows and a famous video game from
         | it!
         | 
         | We also got Brian Herbert's terrible Butlerian Jihad books
        
           | nickff wrote:
           | There could be an incentive to produce even more 'terrible
           | books' with a shorter or more expensive copyright window.
        
       | observationist wrote:
       | I don't see malice sufficiently addressed. A billionaire could
       | identify arbitrary copyright arbitrage opportunities in
       | particular communities or among groups of individuals and buy out
       | copyright, and hold on to them out of spite until the value of a
       | property is lost, or manipulate memes and the spread of culture.
       | 
       | Deliberately giving things to the public domain, software
       | licensing, and other issues arise in the context of hostility and
       | malice and bad people existing. Stuff like this would only work
       | if everyone participated in good faith.
       | 
       | By the time we figure out any sort of sensible copyright rules,
       | AI will have made a total mockery of our systems, anyway.
        
       | efitz wrote:
       | Copyright and patent are legal privileges (specifically a time
       | limited monopoly on a work or invention), not natural rights.
       | 
       | The US Constitution proposes them as a way to "promote progress
       | in the useful arts" and specifically calls out their time-limited
       | nature. I think that "authors life + 95 years" arguably stretches
       | "limited time" beyond reasonableness, but I digress.
       | 
       | There is a real cost, both to the society the law serves, and in
       | the operation of law enforcement and judicial infrastructure
       | needed to support copyright and patent enforcement.
       | 
       | Even if you 100% believe in copyright and patent, it seems like a
       | reasonable thing for the direct benefactors of copyrights and
       | patents to substantially bear the cost of enforcement. A one-time
       | filing fee (for patents) and nothing (for copyright) seems low.
       | 
       | There is also a societal cost in suppression of innovation by
       | allowing these to last long periods of time, so it seems
       | reasonable that the cost structure should be (1) related to the
       | value of the work to the creator/inventor, and (2) incentivize
       | shorter times, especially if the values involved are low.
       | 
       | I don't fully grok Harberger taxes but it seems to me that they
       | try to satisfy both my proposed criteria, but are flawed in that
       | the value is stated by the inventor/author without proof. Maybe
       | I'm misinterpreting but I see other comments to that effect.
       | 
       | My proposal is to make the fee structure impute the value, by
       | increasing over time. For example, we could require a fee of
       | $1000 for issuance of a copyright or patent (separate from the
       | application fee). The term would be for one year. The
       | patent/copyright holder can extend for as many years as they
       | want, but the cost goes up 10x each year. If it's a valuable
       | asset, you'll keep paying until the cost of extension exceeds
       | your perceived value. Now the value is established by the most
       | informed party in the market.
       | 
       | This is my proposal. You can of course tinker with lengths and
       | amounts and increase factors.
       | 
       | In sum the idea is that for valuable works (a Marvel Avengers
       | movie or the patent on the RSA algorithm or a cancer drug) the
       | copyright/patent holder will keep paying for many years until
       | it's not profitable anymore. For works that have little market
       | value, they would fall into the public domain quickly and be able
       | to help improve other works or inventions, and inhibit rent
       | seeking. It practically eliminates the incentive for patent
       | trolling, or for suing an artist decades later for having a beat
       | similar to a song 40 years ago, or for establishing huge
       | defensive patent portfolios. The economics aren't there anymore.
        
       | adamc wrote:
       | The fundamental idea here is that you have no intrinsic right to
       | the things you already possess. Should we force people to pay
       | additional taxes on other property in order to continue to
       | possess it? I think that would be wildly unpopular, but unless
       | you're willing to do it in general, aren't you just picking on
       | subpopulations you don't like?
       | 
       | The fact that BigCo. might be able to exploit an IP for some
       | purpose -- perhaps making commercials out of popular songs -- in
       | a way that would lead to revenue does not intrinsically suggest
       | that it would be a good thing. Why shouldn't the artist retain
       | control? Why shouldn't his heirs (who have already paid
       | inheritance taxes) retain control?
       | 
       | Should an individual unable to pay taxes on his own organs lose
       | them to someone who will pay the market value? I think most of us
       | would think that grotesque. And it's grotesque because the
       | viewpoint behind it -- that the highest bidder should
       | automatically win, that it is intrinsically the "highest" and
       | best purpose -- is grotesque.
        
         | pydry wrote:
         | >Should we force people to pay additional taxes on other
         | property in order to continue to possess it?
         | 
         | That is generally how property taxes are supposed to function.
         | 
         | It's better than taxing the output of hard work - work, unlike
         | hoarding, is generally something we want to encourage.
        
           | robertlagrant wrote:
           | > It's better than taxing the output of hard work - work,
           | unlike hoarding, is generally something we want to encourage.
           | 
           | To what hoarding are you referring?
        
       | blacksqr wrote:
       | The international Berne Copyright Convention was founded in the
       | late 1800's precisely because Victor Hugo thought artists
       | shoudn't have to think about such things. Copyright is automatic
       | upon creation of the work and guaranteed for at least 50 years
       | after the author's death.
       | 
       | Almost all countries are now party to the Convention, including
       | the USA.
        
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