[HN Gopher] The great abandonment: what happens to the natural w...
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       The great abandonment: what happens to the natural world when
       people disappear?
        
       Author : zeristor
       Score  : 40 points
       Date   : 2024-11-28 07:14 UTC (15 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.theguardian.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.theguardian.com)
        
       | scooke wrote:
       | The perspective of the entire article is confused. Abandonment
       | doesn't overcome and infuse something. It's not an action; it is
       | a state. And what happens TO nature? No, what does nature DO when
       | humanity stops what it does to nature. Reclamation, from the
       | proper perspective; abandonment is from the human perspective.
        
         | pololeono wrote:
         | It is all about aesthetics. Humanity is also part of nature.
        
           | falcor84 wrote:
           | As I understand it, it's not about aesthetics per-se, but
           | rather that "nature" is a semantic concept defined by us
           | humans for anything that is outside of the human sphere -
           | i.e. something is "natural" or "out in nature" or "nature's
           | way" if it's what would have been if humans hadn't been
           | involved.
        
           | g8oz wrote:
           | In the manner of an algal bloom, yes.
        
       | jpcom wrote:
       | Covid was a great example of how the natural world returns to
       | harmony when human antagonism via noise/sound pollution and so
       | forth is suddenly halted. I think a lot of dolphins in the sea
       | rejoiced.
        
         | Neil44 wrote:
         | The article actually argues that the idea that nature finds
         | lovely balances if we just get out of the way is not correct. A
         | lot of what we view as stable ecosystems are stable because of
         | our management and influence over millennia. Nature on it's own
         | is not a thing, there are no checks and balances, no intention,
         | no morality. The quote from the article is that nature does not
         | organise it's self into neat parables.
        
           | Der_Einzige wrote:
           | This is called the "baseline" problem among conservationists.
        
             | benchmarkist wrote:
             | Why is it a problem? It's not like people are somehow
             | special. We eat and shit like every other mammal but
             | without us the water and land would not be full of
             | synthetic chemicals and plastics. Seems very obvious to me
             | that human industries change the baseline to a polluted
             | state vs what it would have been without industrial
             | activities. But even without industrial activity the
             | historical record is very clear on the effect that human
             | populations have on the surrounding flora and fauna.
        
               | oblio wrote:
               | Well, if you want to be optimistic, I think we got coal
               | from lignin/wood being uneatable for hundreds of millions
               | of years (I think).
               | 
               | So wood would stack up, not rot, get covered by dirt and
               | turned into coal due to physical processes, not
               | biological ones.
               | 
               | So coal deposits of the existing magnitudes couldn't be
               | created now.
        
               | benchmarkist wrote:
               | I am very optimistic. I don't remember where I read it
               | but whatever remains after the current industrial
               | civilization will not have access to the energy resources
               | necessary for reindustrialization. Might have been
               | Derrick Jensen but I can't remember which book exactly.
        
           | vacuity wrote:
           | So I get the sense that we can be considered part of nature,
           | and however much or little influence we exert is a part of
           | the overall system. It can balance to an extent with our
           | presence and will do so without it.
        
           | jpcom wrote:
           | How convenient, an unprovable hypothesis.
        
           | KineticLensman wrote:
           | The article doesn't claim that 'nature finds lovely balances
           | if we just get out of the way'. It says
           | 
           | >> Over time, Clements' more sweeping theories were picked
           | apart by fellow botanists. The stable, permanent climax
           | communities he had theorised proved elusive: field studies
           | continued to find ecosystems passing through unpredictable
           | cycles of collapse, regeneration, divergence and stasis.
           | Today, this deterministic version of succession theory is
           | seen as widely debunked. But Clements' vision endured in the
           | popular imagination - sometimes to the frustration of
           | ecologists.
           | 
           | ...
           | 
           | >> To harness the full environmental possibilities offered by
           | the great abandonment will require changing our conception of
           | humanity's relationship to nature, and understanding how our
           | species can benefit ecosystems as well as harm them. It will
           | also require human intention: neglect alone is not enough
        
           | ocschwar wrote:
           | In the 1960s there was a long overdue correction to the
           | Australian constitution because the preamble mentioned the
           | continent's "flora and fauna" in a way that implied
           | Aborigines were part of the "fauna." The wording was grossly
           | racist, and had to be changed because of the politics, but
           | from an ecological standpoint, there was some truth to it.
           | Australia's ecosystems were stable because of how Aborigines
           | interacted with them.
        
       | cjs_ac wrote:
       | > As populations move and shrink, people are leaving long-
       | occupied places behind. Often they leave everything in place,
       | ready for a return that never comes. In Tyurkmen, Christmas
       | baubles still hang from the curtain rails in empty houses, slowly
       | being wrapped by spiders. In one abandoned home, a porcelain
       | cabinet lay inside a crater of rotted floorboards, plates still
       | stacked above a spare packet of nappies for a visiting
       | grandchild. Occasionally, abandonment happens all at once, when a
       | legal ruling or evacuation sends people scuttling. But mostly, it
       | is haphazard, creeping, unplanned. People just go.
       | 
       | This always confuses me. If I were abandoning my home of my own
       | volition, I'd take my possessions with me.
        
         | analog31 wrote:
         | Every time I've moved, it involved getting rid of piles of
         | stuff. And my next move will probably be a downsize. I'm
         | already on a mission to get rid of X cubic foot of stuff per
         | year. After helping my mom downsize, I've lost my nostalgia for
         | keeping old stuff around. And my kids want none of it -- they
         | don't know if they will ever own a house, or necessarily what
         | country they'll even live in.
         | 
         | And of course I wonder why stuff piles up. The reasons include
         | laziness and probably a mild hoarding instinct.
        
         | ralph84 wrote:
         | Eventually we all die and our heirs if we have any tend to
         | value our possessions closer to the market rate ($0) than we
         | do.
        
         | Macha wrote:
         | Christmas decorations and nappies both strike me as the sort of
         | thing that would get left behind, they're pretty poor in the
         | value/space tradeoff, not to mention that a lot of these houses
         | were left behind when elderly people died. It's not uncommon
         | for elderly people to have stuff they accumulated over the
         | years, it would not surprise me if there's christmas
         | decorations that have been unused for decades in my
         | grandmother's attic, or nappies that were once for
         | grandchildren that are now adults. In a country where the
         | population is growing, this stuff just gets dumped as the heirs
         | clear out the house to sell, but what are these houses in the
         | middle of nowhere with infrastructure that has crumbled away
         | worth?
        
       | Rygian wrote:
       | Life After People is a TV show that covers some answers to the
       | title, from several points of view.
        
       | wmwmwm wrote:
       | Book recommendation for The World Without Us which explores what
       | might happen if humans vanished overnight:
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World_Without_Us
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | Wikipedia has a list of ghost towns in the United States.[1]
       | 
       | Most rural towns were built to serve surrounding farms and
       | ranches. As farming became less labor-intensive, the need for
       | those towns went away, and the towns slowly died. See
       | "Depopulation of the Great Plains"[2] It's interesting to note
       | that the depopulated area is the best part of the US for wind
       | power. That could work out OK.
       | 
       | Mining towns die when the resource is exhausted. They go fast.
       | 
       | Japan, where the population is rapidly declining, has a large
       | number of empty rural towns. There's an incentive program to get
       | young people to move there, but not many are interested. Because
       | Japan's infrastructure is centrally funded, much of the
       | infrastructure is still maintained in areas with very few people.
       | 
       | Russia has a declining population and entire abandoned cities.
       | Putin is pushing young people to have kids. There's a "Pregnant
       | at 16" TV show in Russia, which has been re-branded to encourage
       | pregnancy.[3]
       | 
       | The countries that are above breakeven (2.1 children per woman)
       | are all in Africa or are dominated by religions which oppress
       | women. And poor.[4] "Peak baby" was in 2013 worldwide.
       | 
       | There are two futures, both bad. "Keep 'em barefoot and
       | pregnant", or "Will the last one to leave please turn out the
       | lights."
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_ghost_towns_in_the_Un...
       | 
       | [2]
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depopulation_of_the_Great_Plai...
       | 
       | [3] https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/11/05/as-russia-targets-
       | ab...
       | 
       | [4]
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fer...
        
         | RestartKernel wrote:
         | [3] is really interesting. I'm not surprised, but it really
         | feels like history is _happening_ when even the mundane starts
         | to reflect it.
        
           | tokioyoyo wrote:
           | I don't think it will work as long as women have access to
           | information and literally anything else to do in life other
           | than making endless babies. I fear there will be a push
           | against women's freedom of choice, once things become dire
           | enough that can't be patched with immigration.
           | 
           | It's just a huge opportunity loss if you talk to any young
           | woman, and they're obviously right. There is no tangible
           | benefit to have more than two children other than "for the
           | humanity!".
        
             | Animats wrote:
             | > I don't think it will work as long as women have access
             | to information and literally anything else to do in life
             | other than making endless babies.
             | 
             | Which has happened in Afghanistan. The Taliban has cracked
             | down.[1] "Our analysis shows that by 2026, the impact of
             | leaving 1.1 million girls out of school and 100,000 women
             | out of university correlates to an increase in early
             | childbearing by 45 per cent."
             | 
             | [1] https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/08/1153151
        
             | JackMorgan wrote:
             | I think if everyone in the country could easily afford a 5
             | bedroom house on one person's salary, and they deeply felt
             | like their kids would grow up safe and healthy environment,
             | we'd have a population explosion. The decline is caused by
             | a population that cannot afford enough and is constantly
             | panicked over global events. Everyone is presented with
             | terror of doom constantly, and squeezed by a major shift of
             | resources from labor to capital holders. The rich get
             | richer, everyone else gets poorer.
             | 
             | A family of rabbits without enough quiet, food, shelter,
             | etc will have hardly any babies. The mother will also eat
             | any babies.
        
               | tokioyoyo wrote:
               | You really think women, on average, would be willing to
               | sacrifice 6+ years at the minimum to have 3 children?
               | It's easy for us, men, to say that. But all my girl
               | friends around my age group (late 20s-early 40s) are
               | generally happy with 0-2 children. Genuinely nothing is
               | stopping them other than "why do I need to make that
               | sacrifice?" question. I will never blame them either,
               | because I would do exactly the same in their place. It is
               | the most logical thing to do. It's either we make women's
               | lives objectively worse, or figure out a way where we can
               | live without everyone going for 3+.
        
         | whartung wrote:
         | > Mining towns die when the resource is exhausted. They go
         | fast.
         | 
         | In Nevada/Eastern California there was a railroad that went
         | from the Carson City area down toward Owen's Lake.
         | 
         | The interesting part is if you look at the railroad map, pretty
         | much none of the stops exist anymore. It's a long string of
         | communities that are all long gone from the eastern Owen's
         | Valley.
         | 
         | Even the eventual highways that were to follow ended up coming
         | down the western side of the valley, yet more reason for those
         | late communities to no longer exist.
         | 
         | And it's pretty much all gone. No ghost towns, maybe a few
         | overgrown foundations remnants.
         | 
         | But if you had never seen this railroad map, you'd probably
         | never have any idea this land was occupied at all.
        
         | jdlshore wrote:
         | > There are two futures, both bad.
         | 
         | Or, more likely, people are extrapolating from current trends,
         | and those trends won't hold. Not that long ago, people were
         | doing that extrapolation and deciding that overpopulation and
         | worldwide famine were in our future. "The Population Bomb" was
         | a bestselling book along those lines.
         | 
         | The population is likely to shrink, easing strain on resources,
         | and people will look back fondly on "the good old days" when
         | folks had big families. Trends will shift and the population
         | will grow again.
        
           | benchmarkist wrote:
           | It's a self-correcting problem. The people who don't have
           | children select themselves out of the gene pool and are
           | replaced by those who do have children.
        
             | debesyla wrote:
             | It's debatable if choice/want/accident of having children
             | is based on genetics.
        
               | benchmarkist wrote:
               | It's a tautology. Replicators which do not replicate do
               | not persist in the environment and so are selected out of
               | the pool of replicators. So whatever genes persist in the
               | environment are tautologically the ones that managed to
               | replicate and persist. The people who do not have
               | children are selecting themselves out of the pool of
               | genes that make copies so will be replaced with ones that
               | do make copies.
               | 
               | If you're talking about environmental pollution and
               | declining fertility because of it then that's something
               | else but even then, those who manage to survive and
               | persist in a polluted environment will be the ones who
               | pass on copies of their genes.
        
               | notahacker wrote:
               | > It's a tautology. Replicators which do not replicate do
               | not persist in the environment and so are selected out of
               | the pool of replicators. So whatever genes persist in the
               | environment are tautologically the ones that managed to
               | replicate and persist. The people who do not have
               | children are selecting themselves out of the pool of
               | genes that make copies so will be replaced with ones that
               | do make copies
               | 
               | That's.... not how humans work. If people choose to have
               | less children, which has very little to do with their
               | genetics, there are fewer children to replicate, not
               | "replacement" with children who are genetically
               | determined to be fecund.
        
               | benchmarkist wrote:
               | Humans are animals and animals which do not replicate are
               | selected out of the gene pool. There is nothing to argue
               | here.
        
       | AlexDragusin wrote:
       | This documentary explores this:
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l11zPNb-MFg
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aftermath:_Population_Zero
       | 
       | Aftermath: Population Zero - The World without Humans What would
       | happen if, tomorrow, every single person on Earth simply
       | disappeared? Not dead, simply gone, just like that. A world
       | without people, where city streets are still populated by cars,
       | but no drivers. A world where there is no one to fix bridges or
       | repair broken windows...
        
       | pvaldes wrote:
       | Some years of great success ended by a rust nuclear plant
       | suddenly exploding.
        
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