[HN Gopher] The AI reporter that took my old job just got fired
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       The AI reporter that took my old job just got fired
        
       Author : Brajeshwar
       Score  : 209 points
       Date   : 2024-11-22 10:34 UTC (4 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.wired.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.wired.com)
        
       | gnabgib wrote:
       | Small discussion (10 points, 23 hours ago, 5 comments)
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42203016
        
       | tomcam wrote:
       | Incredibly, no videos linked in an article about a video
       | newscast. I think this is an example. The AI doesn't even
       | pronounce "AI" correctly. Interestingly, it looks slightly
       | offscreen just the way real newsreaders do when they're on
       | prompter.
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa7Q2S7VWUk
       | 
       | They do a lot right. There's interaction between the bots. They
       | look kind of professional but not Los Angeles/New York quality,
       | which is what you'd expect from a smallish market. Their movement
       | is also kind of stiff and amateurish, which I believe is
       | intentional.
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | Newscast teleprompters are directly in front of the camera lens
         | specifically to not have them looking away from the lens. This
         | has been a solved technology for decades. Perhaps you're
         | thinking of cue cards or the teleprompters speakers use in a
         | speech live audience type of setting?
        
           | tomcam wrote:
           | Well you got me. I haven't watched broadcast TV for decades.
           | I do see that phenomenon a lot with vloggers at present.
           | 
           | Am I also incorrect that they appear not to be looking
           | directly at the camera? Looking back after your comment I
           | still think it feels like they aren't.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | The AI characters? Nothing about them feels right. The
             | audio looks out of sync with the fake lip flaps. The dude's
             | arm gestures are horrendous. It's AI/cgi, yet the fake
             | background looks like a bad chromakey. You already pointed
             | out some of the audio/voice issues.
        
               | pavel_lishin wrote:
               | > _It 's AI/cgi, yet the fake background looks like a bad
               | chromakey._
               | 
               | I genuinely wonder if that's intentional. Maybe that
               | looks more "realistic", and gives the audience something
               | to stumble over that's not other AI artefacts?
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | The result to me looked more like a Zoom background
               | replacement rather than a weather chromakey. That's what
               | really looked bad to me. Even the full studio chromakey
               | looks much better where the anchors are at a desk in
               | front of a color vs a full studio.
        
         | beepbooptheory wrote:
         | Love this so much, not in the way intended. Its just so
         | strange! I can't put my finger on it, but feels like something
         | Tim and Eric, or Tim Robinson, or even Alan Resnick would have
         | a hand in.
         | 
         | There is a kind of aesthetic immanence to whole thing,
         | everything is right on the surface. The voices are only just
         | embodied "enough," their unearned confidence, their
         | "affectations." The deadpan delivery on an absurd stage. The
         | colors all feel like a cake that is too sweet. Like
         | approximating a memory of a broadcast.
         | 
         | It is hilarious and beautiful. No notes.
        
           | tomcam wrote:
           | Yeah I can see all of it, but the problem with me is that I
           | bet I would have watched it a few seconds and clicked off out
           | of boredom, never suspecting they were AI. I really want to
           | claim I would have figured it out instantly, but I can't. If
           | I were a regular consumer I think I'd notice.
           | 
           | They mention right up front they're "powered by AI" but to me
           | that implies they had help with article writing. I would not
           | immediately assume from that statement that the actual
           | newsreaders themselves were AI.
        
           | dsjoerg wrote:
           | Yes! There is something massive and beautiful available in
           | this direction.
        
         | rightbyte wrote:
         | The guy locks like a deceised used as a marionette and the girl
         | speaks like a tenor.
         | 
         | But I guess it will become better. TV will turn so soul less,
         | even when compared to today.
         | 
         | Imagine Rakuten Dog Does Funny Stuff channel with this added as
         | some filler. Dystopic.
        
           | chasil wrote:
           | "James began his tenure as lead anchor, at which point he was
           | unable to blink and his hands were constantly vibrating. He
           | was demoted to second anchor in mid-October, where he began
           | blinking more regularly and his odd hand vibration was
           | replaced by a single emphatic gesture."
        
         | yardstick wrote:
         | The first thing I thought of when I saw this is that some mid-
         | tier dictatorships could replace a lot of their newscasters
         | with this approach. Can always guarantee they'll say what they
         | need to say, and a lack of emotion is a plus maybe? Except with
         | the dear leader passes then you bring out a real person for the
         | emotions.
        
           | jvanderbot wrote:
           | Well if the article is to be believed, they actually _can 't_
           | guarantee they'll say what they need to say, but I think your
           | larger point holds.
        
           | pawelduda wrote:
           | AI's not mandatory for that
        
         | onemoresoop wrote:
         | What problem are they trying to solve though?
        
           | Spoom wrote:
           | Paying human presenters.
        
             | tartoran wrote:
             | Human presenters aren't too expensive and are quite
             | flexible, are easily replaced and can make or break a show.
             | Yeah, there's the novelty factor now but am not sure how
             | long it'll take until GenAI on broadcasts will signal
             | second rate, subpar knockoff.
        
         | joe_the_user wrote:
         | I could only find this video. James' arms go up and down in an
         | alarming manner. Rose has more natural movements but the voice
         | you hear when her mouth moves is worse than the worst foreign
         | film voice-over. Somehow the person and the voice mismatched in
         | "tone" in a way that's hard to describe.
         | 
         | https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1040710730435452
        
           | namaria wrote:
           | Uncanny, I'd say
        
         | syncsynchalt wrote:
         | I was surprised at how game the AI was to pronounce the
         | Hawaiian place names, it was confident enough that I assumed
         | the pronunciation was correct. The article notes that it is
         | butchering the placenames though.
         | 
         | To me this illustrates a common cognitive mismatch when
         | evaluating AI, it can be confident in a way that most humans
         | can't, and that misleading social cue is another reason we
         | trust its output.
        
         | 1024core wrote:
         | James' lips don't seem to move at all.
         | 
         | The problem with such "videocasts" (as opposed to "podcasts")
         | is that there is another channel that the AI has to control:
         | the video. Generating convincing video is much harder than
         | generating convincing audio.
        
         | chrononaut wrote:
         | The way the mouths move are so far off from the words they're
         | speaking that my first impressions would be they're just
         | playing a video loop of these people talking about other random
         | things and dubbing over it.
        
           | janalsncm wrote:
           | They could've definitely fixed the audio by making it sound
           | like the avatars were wearing mics.
           | 
           | Honestly the whole thing is so off-putting and lazy.
        
         | insane_dreamer wrote:
         | "James" arm motion in a loop.
        
         | mock-possum wrote:
         | Ooh wow I hate this. Totally soulless appearance and delivery -
         | and the robot fidgeting the dude is doing with his hands
         | completely distracts from everything else. It's totally normal
         | to do that movement while speaking for emphasis - but whatever
         | he's doing does not look normal. (The mouths look nightmarish
         | as well)
        
         | itronitron wrote:
         | >> The AI doesn't even pronounce "AI" correctly.
         | 
         | You can call me Al.
        
         | vbarrielle wrote:
         | Looks like they're using something like motion matching to
         | recover fragments of the presenter's motion that match the
         | pronounced phonemes. The actors were probably instructed to
         | avoid almost all movement to make sure it was blendable. That
         | would explain why the guy's hand have such erratic and non-
         | natural movement.
        
       | vunderba wrote:
       | Slightly tangential, but this is the reason I'm baffled why
       | people think that AI-driven podcasts would ever be worth
       | listening to.
       | 
       | If you can find an LLM+TTS generated podcast with even a
       | _FRACTION_ of the infectious energy as something like Good Job
       | Brain, Radio Lab, or Ask Me Another, then I 'll eat my hat. I
       | don't even own one. I'll drive to the nearest hat store, purchase
       | the tallest stovetop hat that I can afford and eat it.
        
         | thomasahle wrote:
         | I've yet to hear an LLM-generated podcast about an article that
         | wouldn't have been better if the AI had simply read the article
         | aloud.
        
         | tokioyoyo wrote:
         | I totally agree, but I also think it's just not geared towards
         | us because of our age and preexisting beliefs of "what
         | podcasts/news/videos are supposed to be". Think of kids around
         | age <12. If they'll keep consuming AI-driven media, they'll
         | take that as normal and won't blink twice if that becomes the
         | de-facto standard in about 10 years.
         | 
         | It's the same as short-video format for me. Sure, I can watch
         | some TikToks from time to time, but making them, or
         | continuously getting my news from them? Yeah, that's not gonna
         | fly for me. However, for my niblings (age 8-17) that's
         | basically where they're getting all the "current affairs" from.
         | Microtransaction is probably one of the easiest example as
         | well. 15 years ago, anyone who bought games would laugh at you
         | if you said every game that you paid $80 for would also have
         | endless amount of small items that you can buy for real money.
         | Right now? Well, kids that grew up with Fortnite and Roblox
         | just think that's the norm.
        
           | mjr00 wrote:
           | The younger generation loves short-form, to-the-point stuff.
           | Which is the exact opposite of what the current crop of GenAI
           | makes. In a tiktok video, every sentence, every word counts
           | because there's a time limit. If people don't engage with
           | your content in the first 3 seconds, it's worthless. The
           | video linked in another post starts off with 15 seconds of
           | complete fluff. You'd have better engagement if you have a
           | guy opening with BIIIG NEWS!! LABOR DAY BREAKFAST GOES
           | HAYWIRE!!! and hook people.
           | 
           | GenAI is great at generating "stuff", but what makes good
           | content isn't the quantity. What makes good content is when
           | there's nothing left to take away.
        
             | tokioyoyo wrote:
             | Isn't it just a matter of time until AI gets trained to
             | generate attention-grabbing videos? Also, "the first three
             | seconds" isn't exactly the case anymore. There's a push for
             | algorithm to favour videos that are longer than 1+ minutes.
             | Which, to my understanding, is TikTok's way of fighting for
             | YouTube's userbase.
        
               | mjr00 wrote:
               | The videos are longer in total length, but you've never
               | seen the average TikTok/Insta user if you think people
               | are letting videos play for more than a few seconds
               | before scrolling onto the next one. This is why movie
               | trailer videos now have a "trailer for the trailer" in
               | the opening seconds with like "THE TRAILER FOR SONIC 3...
               | STARTS NOW" with all of the most attention-grabbing
               | scenes frontloaded.
        
               | mvdtnz wrote:
               | > Isn't it just a matter of time until AI gets trained
               | to...
               | 
               | blah blah yes "it's a matter or time" for every one of
               | the myriad shortcomings of the technology to be resolved.
               | If you're a true believer everything is "a matter of
               | time". I'll believe it when I see it.
        
               | tokioyoyo wrote:
               | Depends on the technology. It's hard to look at the
               | progress from December of 2022 till today, and think we
               | won't go further. Image generation is getting better
               | every day. Parts of the video generation pipelines are
               | also advancing.
        
               | frigidnonce wrote:
               | https://xkcd.com/605/
        
               | staunton wrote:
               | I'm also pretty aure you'll see it eventually... Consider
               | the possibility that this is both a bubble waiting to
               | pop, as well as the stuff that will shape the future.
               | Kind of like the Internet around the year 2000.
        
               | FireBeyond wrote:
               | Similar on IG, which is why a lot of the photographers on
               | my feed will post five or six images, "Which is your
               | favorite, 1-6? Comment below!" because they get the
               | engagement, synthetic or otherwise, of you clicking
               | through each image, and then commenting.
        
             | cogman10 wrote:
             | Counterpoint, GenAI is great at copying styles and
             | typically works best with shorter content.
             | 
             | For example, I could very easily see GenAI being able to
             | produce 1 million TikTok dance challenges.
        
               | AstralStorm wrote:
               | Which will make them completely worthless by dilution and
               | not stand out. Oops.
        
               | namaria wrote:
               | Novelty grabs people's attention. A system based on the
               | statistical analysis of past content won't do novelty.
               | This seems like a very basic issue to me.
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | Novelty itself is easy, the hard part is the kind of
               | novelty that is familiar enough to be engaging while also
               | unusual enough to attract all the people bored by the
               | mainstream.
               | 
               | Worse, as people attempt to automate novelty, they will
               | be (and have been) repeatedly thwarted by the fact that
               | the implicit patterns of the automation system themselves
               | become patterns to be learned and recognised... which is
               | why all modern popular music sounds so similar that this
               | video got made 14 years ago:
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pidokakU4I
               | 
               | (This is already a thing with GenAI images made by people
               | who just prompt-and-go, though artists using it as a tool
               | can easily do much better).
               | 
               | But go too soon, be too novel, and you're in something
               | like uncanny valley: When Saint-Saens' _Danse macabre_
               | was first performed, it was poorly received by violating
               | then-current expectations, now it 's considered a
               | masterpiece.
        
               | AnthonBerg wrote:
               | A system that digs out undiscovered mechanisms to drape
               | novelty on based on where the statistical analysis says
               | it's already been, that would do it though.
        
             | ljsprague wrote:
             | I ... don't think there's a time limit on TikToks unless
             | you mean that 60 minutes is a time limit. Are you thinking
             | of Vine?
        
               | ffsm8 wrote:
               | That's a pretty new thing though, in 2020 it was 1 min I
               | believe, and most people skipped after 15-30s
               | 
               | Then it got increased to 3 min and now 10/60 min
        
               | mjr00 wrote:
               | If you want people to watch your content there's
               | definitely a time limit. I don't mean anything imposed by
               | the platform; I just mean if people aren't interested
               | within 3 seconds, they're scrolling to the next video in
               | their feed.
        
               | StableAlkyne wrote:
               | I miss Vine
        
             | davkan wrote:
             | Is that true of tiktoks in general? I feel like a lot of
             | the short form videos out there purposefully bait the
             | watcher and drag on for 3/4 of their runtime.
        
             | simplyluke wrote:
             | What's funny is every GenAI "incredible email/essay" would
             | be better communicated with the prompt used to generate it.
        
               | jerf wrote:
               | "Your essay must be at least X words" has always been an
               | impediment to truly good writing skills, but now it's
               | just worthless.
        
               | portaouflop wrote:
               | I never had that requirement outside the first years of
               | school- where it's more about writing practice than
               | writing actual essays. After it was always "must be below
               | X pages"
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | X words is supposed to be a proxy for do enough research
               | that you have something to say with depth. A history of
               | the world in 15 minutes better cover enough ground to be
               | worth 15 minutes - as opposed to 1 minute and then filler
               | words. Of course filler is something everyone who writes
               | such a thing and comes up a few words short does - but
               | you are supposed to go find something more to say.
        
               | btown wrote:
               | There's something painfully ironic and disturbing that
               | the pseudo-Kolmogorov complexity of clickbait content, as
               | judged "identical in quality" by an average human viewer,
               | is arguably less than the length of the clickbait
               | headline itself, and perhaps even less than the embedding
               | vector of said headline!
        
             | fragmede wrote:
             | > If people don't engage with your content in the first 3
             | seconds, it's worthless.
             | 
             | Is that based on a vigorous experience as a content creator
             | on TikTok as a long form content creator or are you going
             | off what you've heard about TikTok, or it's what your feed
             | is full of? (which says more about you/your feed than it
             | does about TikTok)
             | 
             | https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTYheCgBq/ 1.1 M views
             | 
             | https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTYhephfK/ 1.2 M views
             | 
             | or for some more niche stuff which isn't "BIIIG NEWS!!
             | LABOR DAY BREAKFAST GOES HAYWIRE!!!" level of intro:
             | 
             | https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTYheTVsh/ 54.6 k views
             | 
             | https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTYheE9m2/
             | 
             | 36.3 k views
             | 
             | https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTYheoK2G/
             | 
             | 416 k views
             | 
             | This voice-over definitely isn't going for attention
             | grabbing
             | 
             | https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTYhe7qTT/ 16 k views
             | 
             | https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTYhdmJxq/ 64 k views
             | 
             | okay finally found something that's 5 mins long
             | https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTYhdAfNj/ 270 k views
        
               | neom wrote:
               | I've never used tiktok and this post was... enlightening.
               | The ClickUP HR guys are actually pretty funny... but wtf
               | is this from that first channel you posted... lol? https:
               | //www.tiktok.com/@luckypassengers/video/74395775119539...
               | - I mean, she's not wrong.
        
               | mjr00 wrote:
               | All of those immediately have something attention-
               | grabbing within the first few seconds: picture of Mars'
               | surface, run map showing funny human shape, text with
               | "Gen Z programmers are crazy" prefacing the anecdote,
               | going immediately into the IT-related rap, guy holding a
               | big and cool-looking stick, "dealing with your 10x
               | coworker" immediately showing the point of the video. The
               | only one that doesn't is the SQL one I guess but that's a
               | very low view count (relatively) on a niche channel.
               | 
               | So thanks for providing a bunch of examples that prove my
               | point, I guess?
        
               | fragmede wrote:
               | none of them are breathless "BIIIG NEWS!! LABOR DAY
               | BREAKFAST GOES HAYWIRE!!!" attention demanding within the
               | first three seconds imo, but, sure, whatever, you're
               | totally right
        
           | jprete wrote:
           | The idea that "TikTok is for Gen Z" seems like a very stale
           | meme, although I only have anecdata to back that up.
           | 
           | Microtransactions are way older than 15 years. Wizards of the
           | Coast was selling randomized MtG booster packs in 1993. I'm
           | guessing that the earliest loot boxes for kids were baseball
           | card packs, with very similar psychological purpose to
           | today's game cosmetic collectibles.
        
             | tokioyoyo wrote:
             | I totally agree, but it's just easier for people to accept
             | something if they grew up with it. Sure there will always
             | be people from older generations dabbling with new stuff.
             | But quite a few people refuse to change their behaviour as
             | the age. I wrote them as examples, because it is the
             | biggest contrast I can see in online behaviour between
             | myself and my nephews/nieces plus their circles.
        
             | whtsthmttrmn wrote:
             | I think the main difference is digital vs physical goods. I
             | know it's minor since a card is just a cheap piece of
             | cardboard, but it's still something tangible (unless the
             | game cosmetics also include a physical item, in which
             | case...I'm dumb).
        
             | thaumasiotes wrote:
             | > I'm guessing that the earliest loot boxes for kids were
             | baseball card packs
             | 
             | Baseball card packs are an innovation. If you read Peanuts,
             | you'll see that they're referred to as "bubble gum cards",
             | because cards were included as promotional items in packs
             | of gum, a "free toy inside" that was compatible with the
             | size and shape of bubble gum. They moved to dedicated packs
             | of _cards_ when people started buying gum to get the cards.
             | 
             | https://www.gocomics.com/peanuts/1964/04/12
        
           | krisoft wrote:
           | > anyone who bought games would laugh at you if you said
           | every game that you paid $80 for would also have endless
           | amount of small items that you can buy for real money.
           | 
           | > kids that grew up with Fortnite and Roblox just think
           | that's the norm.
           | 
           | How so? Fortnite and Roblox don't cost $80, they are free to
           | play with in game purchases.
        
             | tokioyoyo wrote:
             | They're F2P, but the social pressure from your friends to
             | buy the next skin, mini game and etc. completely normalizes
             | the behaviour as you grow up. Then you take it as a "usual
             | thing" and don't bat an eye when a game you buy also has
             | different skins in the game.
             | 
             | At least that was my perception when I played Call of Duty
             | with my younger family members.
        
           | ljsprague wrote:
           | I regularly watch 10 minute or longer TikToks and I'm sure
           | you've turned off a YouTube video in the first 10 seconds.
        
           | geon wrote:
           | Fortnite and roblox are f2p though.
        
             | wholinator2 wrote:
             | Honestly sometimes i doubt there's a more damagingly,
             | intentionally overloaded term in modern lexicon than "free
             | to play". Many, many things claim that title while placing
             | if not game play, then socially necessary events, items,
             | costumes, locations, quests, game modes, etc behind a
             | paywall. We need a different term to describe the
             | incredibly predatory behavior and psychology behind most of
             | the current space of "free to play" games. (I'm not saying
             | your favorite game is a lie, just that many games claiming
             | this title effectively are)
        
           | jerf wrote:
           | "If they'll keep consuming AI-driven media, they'll take that
           | as normal and won't blink twice if that becomes the de-facto
           | standard in about 10 years."
           | 
           | There is a sense in which that is true.
           | 
           | However, we all develop taste, and in a hypothetical world
           | where current AI ends up being the limit for another 10 or 20
           | years, eventually a lot of people would figure out that
           | there's not as much "there" there as they supposed.
           | 
           | The wild card is that we probably don't live in that world,
           | and it's difficult to guess how good AI is going to get.
           | 
           | Even now, the voice of AI that people are complaining about
           | is just the current default voice, which will probably
           | eventually be looked on about as favorably as bell-bottomed
           | jeans or beehive hairdos. It is driven less by the technology
           | itself than a complicated set of desires around not wanting
           | to give the media nifty soundbites about how mean (or
           | politically incorrect) AI can be, and not wanting to be sued.
           | It's minimal prompt engineering even now to change it a lot.
           | "Make a snappy TikTok video about whatever" is not something
           | the tech is going to struggle with. In fact given the general
           | poverty of the state space I would guess it'll outcompete
           | humans pretty quickly.
        
             | PrismCrystal wrote:
             | "eventually a lot of people would figure out that there's
             | not as much 'there' there as they supposed."
             | 
             | Let's be honest: most of us here know there is more 'there'
             | on the myriad university-press books available free on
             | Anna's Archive, than on HN. The reason we still hang out
             | here is desire for socializing, laziness, or pathological
             | doomscrolling; information density doesn't really factor
             | into our choices.
        
           | harrall wrote:
           | Personally I don't think it has anything to do with normalcy.
           | 
           | I don't consume AI media because it's not very good.
           | 
           | I watched a lot a bad movies and read a lot of bad books as a
           | kid that I can't stomach now because I've read better books
           | and watched better movies. My guess is that kids today would
           | do the same, assuming AI doesn't improve.
        
           | jimjimjim wrote:
           | Blipverts are probably the future and not just for ads but
           | for content as well
        
           | jdougan wrote:
           | On the other hand, I'm getting some of my news from shorter
           | (5 - 10 min these days, though they used to be shorter)
           | videos with talking maps and war machines...and I'm very much
           | not young.
           | 
           | Buff/Franklin for 2028!
        
         | smb06 wrote:
         | Businesses/CEOs want to show profitability by spending less on
         | human employees. Human consumers don't want to lose the human
         | touch. Will be really interesting to see how many of the
         | consumer facing AI startups actually make it.
        
           | tartoran wrote:
           | Many don't even care if they make it in the long run. Making
           | it is cashing in in the short term, screwing the investors.
        
         | wccrawford wrote:
         | I've heard so many people say that podcasts are just something
         | they have playing in the background while they do other things
         | that I have _no_ trouble believing that they 'd play an AI
         | podcast in the same way.
        
           | tartoran wrote:
           | I personally would not bother with AI generated podcasts,
           | they're such low bar, why waste time where there's so much
           | other great content to catch up on? But I think you may be
           | right, I wouldn't be surprised if people take them in with no
           | fuss. But then what do I care? What I care most is that
           | they'll pollute the search space. I'd filter out all GenAI
           | content if I had the option and Im guessing that will become
           | an option soon.
        
         | add-sub-mul-div wrote:
         | People think they want to use the Minority Report computer
         | interface because it looks cool and advanced but they don't put
         | the least amount of thought into it and realize it's terribly
         | impractical. Our arms would get tired very quickly. A mouse
         | resting on a table isn't further from ideal just because it was
         | invented earlier.
         | 
         | Fooling people with the promises of AI is pretty simple. People
         | are easy to fool. They like shiny objects.
        
         | Bjorkbat wrote:
         | As someone who's struggled to really get into podcasts, I'm
         | convinced that most people who enjoy podcasts don't really
         | actively listen to them, they just like that extra bit of noise
         | in the background while they do something else, with the added
         | bonus that they might just listen at just the right time to
         | pick up some interesting factoid.
         | 
         | Don't get me wrong, I like podcasts, Fall of Civilizations
         | being a personal favorite of mine, it's just that my desire to
         | try and actively listen to them requires that I carve out an
         | hour (or much longer in the case of FoC, worth it) of my free-
         | time to eliminate any distractions and focus. Pretty hard to do
         | when there are so many other things I could be doing with my
         | time besides sitting there trying my best to listen.
         | 
         | Anyway, I bring it up because I'm convinced that the people
         | promoting AI-podcasts are mostly made up of the aforementioned
         | people who just listen to them for noise.
        
           | jon-wood wrote:
           | This is partially true for me, but when I listen to podcasts
           | it's generally in what would otherwise be dead time for me
           | such as when grocery shopping or exercising.
        
           | goatlover wrote:
           | I don't understand enjoying podcasts while just using them
           | for background noise. Maybe because I actually listen, and
           | most podcasts I listen to seemed to have an engaged audience.
           | But then I like listening to people talk about philosophy,
           | politics, sports, true crime, science, history.
        
           | greenthrow wrote:
           | Having this strong of an opinion on something you admittedly
           | don't understand (the appeal of podcasts) is not a great
           | choice. Maybe ask people instead of making up stuff.
        
           | krisoft wrote:
           | > I'm convinced that most people who enjoy podcasts don't
           | really actively listen to them,
           | 
           | Or you know not everyone is the same. Just because you
           | struggle with something doesn't mean that it is not easy and
           | effortless for others.
           | 
           | I can't dribble a basketball and walk at the same time, still
           | I won't make the claim that everyone who claims to enjoy
           | playing basketball is somehow fudging it.
        
           | thatoneguy wrote:
           | I don't get them either since the hosts are typically
           | "regular people" talking about often complicated subjects
           | that they are by no means domain experts in.
           | 
           | I find the format of "Dumdum Host A read some articles about
           | something last night and Dumdum Host B asks questions about
           | it" especially grating, unless it's purely opinion-driven and
           | then I still probably won't care unless I read about the
           | hosts and find out they are probably people with opinions
           | worth listening to.
           | 
           | I'd rather read a book or be with my own thoughts without
           | having them be even more crowded by some randos telling me
           | stuff they think they know
        
             | mattmaroon wrote:
             | Not all podcasts are Joe Rogan
        
             | mvdtnz wrote:
             | > I don't get them either since the hosts are typically
             | "regular people" talking about often complicated subjects
             | that they are by no means domain experts in.
             | 
             | Huh? Most podcasts I listen to feature either experts in
             | the field in question or very skilled journalists compiling
             | the opinions of experts.
        
             | wholinator2 wrote:
             | Oh yeah, i definitely hate it when uninformed people try to
             | make podcasts on specialized topics they obviously know
             | nothing about. I went searching for niche physics podcasts
             | (anything besides space stuff please!) And the amount of
             | literal high schoolers and undergraduates attempting to
             | explain things they're years away from even seeing in class
             | is painful, most admit that they know nothing and are
             | literally free-associating over a Wikipedia article. I give
             | them a pass though since they have no listeners and are
             | usually young but...
             | 
             | I exclusively listen to domain expert podcasts. History
             | experts, policy/economics experts, aforementioned physics
             | experts. Literally event i listen to is hosted by at least
             | one person who is a domain expert. They can branch out and
             | interview experts in other domains but there's always an
             | expert. I honestly can't say (besides the high schoolers
             | which i searched out) the last time i've even test listened
             | to a podcast hosted by semi-charismatic article readers.
             | 
             | I'd recommend you search reddit for lists of podcasts in
             | your desired area. App recommendations are all shit and
             | there's many posts out there
        
           | allenu wrote:
           | I agree. I think I listen to podcasts just for a bit of
           | "social noise" when I'm doing something by myself and for
           | occasionally picking up on something new I hadn't heard of
           | before. For pure information content, I think they're
           | actually very poor. It's not unlike listening to an old AM
           | radio talk show. Hosts repeat themselves, engage in banter,
           | and often oversimplify topics for the sake of a narrative.
           | 
           | I also think AI podcasts could become popular one day for
           | people who just want some background noise and bits of trivia
           | every once in a while. I would argue that a lot of YouTube
           | channels I sometimes have in the background just summarize
           | Wikipedia articles and don't have much of a personal touch
           | anyway, so an AI could do the same thing.
        
           | tanewishly wrote:
           | I figured people listened to them while commuting. It seemed
           | the best fit: lots of time, mostly little attention needed
           | (except when you alight or are driving in adverse
           | conditions).
        
           | QuercusMax wrote:
           | I used to listen to podcasts during my commute, when they
           | took the place of listening to NPR or talk radio. Now that I
           | work from home full time, I listen to them when I'm doing
           | dishes or similar chores, going on walks around the city, and
           | when I'm doing any significant amount of driving. I listen to
           | a combination of comedy/history (love The Dollop), politics,
           | and sci-fi commentary.
           | 
           | For the most part, I'm listening pretty actively, but if I'm
           | just sitting there listening without a fairly mindless
           | activity going on, I'll get distracted pretty quickly and
           | find myself looking at my phone...
        
           | mvdtnz wrote:
           | > Don't get me wrong, I like podcasts, Fall of Civilizations
           | being a personal favorite of mine, it's just that my desire
           | to try and actively listen to them requires that I carve out
           | an hour (or much longer in the case of FoC, worth it) of my
           | free-time to eliminate any distractions and focus.
           | 
           | I don't see why that should be true. Podcasts are great when
           | coupled with mindless work like mowing the lawn, weeding the
           | garden, stacking firewood, walking to the shop, driving etc.
           | You can get virtually 100% out of a podcast while performing
           | tasks like this.
        
           | jabroni_salad wrote:
           | I switched to improvised pods for this reason. Podcasts are
           | for doing the dishes and mowing the lawn and playing
           | factorio. I don't turn on anything with 'meat' unless I have
           | a long car trip ahead of me. I just am not able to sit still
           | and only listen without feeling like I could be doing
           | something else, and when I'm doing something else I'm gonna
           | start tuning out eventually.
           | 
           | Hey Riddle Riddle, Hello from the magic tavern, Artists on
           | artists on artists on artists are my picks for now.
        
         | keiferski wrote:
         | I have probably written this comment about a dozen times on HN
         | already, but: I agree completely, because people don't listen
         | to podcasts purely for information, they listen for information
         | plus community, personality, or just a basic human connection.
         | 
         | If you're a content creator today, the best thing you can do to
         | "AI-proof" your work is to inject your personality into it as
         | much as possible. Preferably your physical personality, on
         | video. The future of human content is being as human as
         | possible. AI isn't going to replace that in our lifetimes, if
         | ever.
        
           | Nevermark wrote:
           | > The future of human content is being as human as possible.
           | AI isn't going to replace that in our lifetimes, if ever.
           | 
           | I have been working on machine learning algorithms for a long
           | time. Since the time when telling someone I worked on AI was
           | a conversation killer, even with technical people.
           | 
           | AI's are going to understand people better than people
           | understand people. That could be in five years, maybe - many
           | things are happening faster than expected. Or in 15 years.
           | But that might be the outside range.
           | 
           | There is something about human psychology where the faster
           | something changes, the less we are aware of the rate of
           | change. We don't review the steps and their increasing rate
           | that happened before we cared about that tech. We just accept
           | the new thing that finally gets our attention like it was a
           | one off event, instead of an accelerating compounding flood,
           | and imagine it isn't really going to change much soon.
           | 
           | --
           | 
           | I know this isn't a popular view.
           | 
           | But what is happening is on the order of the transition to
           | the first multi-cellular creatures, or the first bodies with
           | specialized cells, the first nervous systems, the first
           | brains, the first creatures to use language. Far bigger than
           | advances such as writing or even the Internet. This is a
           | transition to a completely new mode for the substrate of life
           | and intelligence. The lack of dependency on any particular
           | substrate.
           | 
           | "We", the new generation of things we are building, will have
           | none of the limits and inefficiencies of our ancient slow
           | DNA-style life. Or our stark physical bottlenecks on action,
           | communication, or scaling, and our inability to understand or
           | directly edit our own internal traits.
           | 
           | We will have to face many challenges in the coming years. It
           | can't hurt to mindfully face them earlier than later.
        
             | keiferski wrote:
             | Sorry but I don't think this is much evidence of anything.
             | The point at which an AI can imitate a live-streaming human
             | being is decades away. By then, we will almost certainly
             | have developed a "real Human ID" system that verifies one's
             | humanity. I wrote about this more here:
             | 
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42154928
             | 
             | The idea that AI is just going to eat all human creative
             | activity because technology accelerates quickly is not a
             | real argument, nor does it stand up to any serious
             | projections of the future.
        
               | mattmaroon wrote:
               | How do you know it is decades away? A few years ago did
               | you think LLMs would be where they are today?
               | 
               | Is it possible you're wrong?
        
               | keiferski wrote:
               | Of course it's possible I'm wrong. But if we make any
               | sort of projection based on current developments, it
               | would certainly seem that live-streaming AI
               | indistinguishable from a human being is vastly beyond the
               | capabilities of anything out today, and given current
               | expenses and development times, seems to be at least a
               | few decades in the future. To me that is an optimistic
               | assumption, especially assuming that live presence or
               | video quality will continue to improve as well (making it
               | harder to fake.)
               | 
               | If you have a projection that says otherwise, I'd be glad
               | to hear it. But if you don't, then this idea is merely
               | science fiction.
               | 
               | Making predictions about the future that are based on
               | current accelerating developments are how you get people
               | in the 1930s predicting flying cars by 2000.
        
               | nuancebydefault wrote:
               | For many people current AI created videos are already
               | confused for real videos and vice versa.
               | 
               | When you follow up on technology by browsing HN, and see
               | the latest advancements, its easier to see or hear the
               | differences, because you know at what to look.
               | 
               | If I see on tv some badly encoded video, especially in
               | fog or water surfaces, it immediately stands out, because
               | I was working with video decoding during the time it was
               | of much less quality. Most people will not notice.
        
               | jodrellblank wrote:
               | You imply that the technological development will stop,
               | but that's not what happened to flying cars - they do and
               | could exist. Since the 1930s the technology didn't stop
               | developing - aircraft went jet powered, supersonic, to
               | the edge of space, huge, light, heavy, more efficient,
               | more affordable, safer; cars went faster, more reliable,
               | safer, more efficient, bigger, smaller, more capable,
               | self driving; fuel got more pure, engines got more power
               | per kilogram, computer aided design and modelling of
               | airflow and stress patterns was developed, stronger
               | lighter materials were developed; flying cars have been
               | built:
               | 
               | Klein Vision AirCar, 2022:
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hbFl3nhAD0
               | 
               | Predecesor, the AeroMobil from 2014, from prototypes
               | starting 1990:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AeroMobil_s.r.o._AeroMobil
               | 
               | The Terrafugia Transition 'roadable aircraft' from 2009:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrafugia_Transition
               | 
               | Moller SkyCar, of course, which never got to free flight,
               | but was built and could fly.
               | 
               | The problems are regulatory, cost, safety, massive
               | amounts of human skill needed, the infrastructure needed,
               | the lack of demand, etc. A Cessna 182 weighs <900 Kg, a
               | Toyota Corolla weighs >1400 Kg and has no wings, no tail.
               | But if we collectively wanted VTOL flying cars enough to
               | put a SpaceX level of talent and money at them, we could
               | have them. Bit like Hyperloop; a low-pressure tunnel with
               | carriages rushing through it is not impossible, but it's
               | got more failure modes, more cost, more design
               | difficulties and almost no benefits over high speed train
               | and maglev.
        
               | CuriouslyC wrote:
               | AI is already eating their way up the creative ladder,
               | this is 100% irrefutable. Interns, junior artists, junior
               | developers, etc are all losing jobs to AI now.
               | 
               | The main problem for AI is it doesn't have a coherent
               | creative direction or real output consistency. The second
               | problem is that creativity thrives on novelty but AI
               | likes to output common things. The first is solvable,
               | probably within 5 years, and is going to hollow out
               | creative departments everywhere. The second is
               | effectively unsolvable, though you might find algorithms
               | that mask it temporarily (I'm not sure if this is any
               | different than what humans do).
               | 
               | We're going to end up with "rock star" teams of creative
               | leads who have more agility in discovering novelty and
               | curating aesthetics than AI models. They'll work with a
               | small department comprised of a mix of AI wranglers and
               | artisans that can put manual finishing touches on AI
               | generated output. Overall creative department sizes are
               | probably going to shrink to 20% of current levels but
               | output will increase by 200%+.
        
             | unraveller wrote:
             | People are judging AI by what abusers of AI put out there
             | for lols and what they themselves can wring out of it. They
             | haven't yet seen what a bunch of AAA professionals with
             | nothing to lose can build and align.
        
               | segasaturn wrote:
               | Billions of dollars and all of Silicon Valley's focus has
               | been spent over the last 2 years trying to get AI to
               | work, the "AAA professionals" are already working on AI
               | and I still have yet to see an AI generated product
               | that's interesting or compelling.
        
               | hnthrowaway6543 wrote:
               | The cornerstone of genAI hype is "AI for thee, not for
               | me"
               | 
               | it's filled with tech people who are fucking morons
               | thinking that _everyone else_ is really dumb and loves
               | slop and their algorithm will generate infinite content
               | for the masses, making them rich. yet they don 't consume
               | it themselves, and aren't smart enough to recognize the
               | cognitive dissonance
               | 
               | anyone who thinks unsupervised AI content is going to
               | replace [insert creative output here] shouldn't be in the
               | HN comment section, they should be using ChatGPT to
               | generate comments they can engage with
               | 
               | instead they're going to get mad about me calling them a
               | fucking moron in this comment. which, like, why get mad,
               | you can go get an LLM to generate a comment that's much
               | nicer and agrees with you
        
               | artistic_regard wrote:
               | > anyone who thinks unsupervised AI content is going to
               | replace [insert creative output here] shouldn't be in the
               | HN comment section, they should be using ChatGPT to
               | generate comments they can engage with
               | 
               | Actually, their handlers should just be better monitoring
               | their internet usage
        
             | tdeck wrote:
             | This makes me think about attention span. Scenes in movies,
             | sound bites, everything has been getting shorter over the
             | decades. I know mine has gotten shorter, because I now
             | watch highly edited and produced videos at 2x speed.
             | Sometimes when I watch at 1x speed I find myself thinking
             | "why does this person speak so slowly?"
             | 
             | Algorithmic content is likely to be even more densely
             | packed with stimuli. At some point, will we find ourselves
             | unable to attend to content produced by a human being
             | because algorithmic content has wrecked our attention span?
        
             | topato wrote:
             | I find your ideas intreguing, and I wish to subscribe to
             | your newsletter
        
             | arolihas wrote:
             | What machine learning algorithm have you worked on that
             | leads you to believe they are capable of having a rich
             | internal cognitive representation anywhere close to any
             | sentient conscious animal?
        
               | Lerc wrote:
               | If you pick any well performing AI architecture, what
               | would lead you to believe that they are not capable of
               | having a rich internal cognitive representation?
               | 
               | The Transformer, well... transforms, at each layer to
               | produce a different representation of the context. What
               | is this but an internal representation? One cannot assess
               | whether that is rich or cognitive without some agreement
               | of what those terms might mean.
               | 
               | LLMs can seemingly convert a variety of languages into an
               | internal representation that encompasses the gist of any
               | of them. This would at least provide a decent argument
               | that the internal representation is 'rich'
               | 
               | As for cognitive? What assessment would you have in mind
               | that would clearly disqualify something as a non-
               | cognitive entity?
               | 
               | I think most people working in this field who are
               | confident feel that they can extend what they know now to
               | make something that looks like a duck, walks like a duck,
               | and quacks like a duck. If that is achieved, on what
               | basis does anyone have to say "But it's not really a
               | duck"?
               | 
               | I'm ok with people saying AI will be never able to
               | perform that well because it doesn't have X, as long as
               | they accept that if it does, one day, perform that well
               | they accept that either X is present, or that X is not
               | relevant.
        
             | nyokodo wrote:
             | > AI's are going to understand people better than people
             | understand people.
             | 
             | Maybe, but very little of the "data" that humans use to
             | build their understanding of humans is recorded and
             | available. If it were it's not obvious it would be
             | economical to train on. If it were economical it's not
             | obvious that current techniques would actually work that
             | well and by definition no future techniques are known to
             | work yet. I'm not inclined to say it will never happen but
             | there are a few reasons to predict it'll prove to be
             | significantly harder to build AI that gets out of the
             | uncanny valley that it's currently in.
        
               | Nevermark wrote:
               | You are describing the current state of AI as if it were
               | a stable point.
               | 
               | AI today is far ahead of two years ago. Every year for
               | many years before that, deep learning models broke
               | benchmark after benchmark before that breakout.
               | 
               | There is no indication of any slow down. The complete
               | reverse - we are seeing dramatic acceleration of an
               | already fast moving field.
               | 
               | Both research and resources are pouring into major
               | improvements in multi-modal learning and learning via
               | other means than human data. Such as reinforcement
               | learning, competitive learning, interacting with systems
               | they need to understand via simulated environments and
               | directly.
        
             | burnished wrote:
             | Yes, this seems possible. I only wonder if it is too
             | fragile to be self perpetuating. But we're here after all,
             | and this place used to be just a wet rock.
        
         | fallinditch wrote:
         | Excuse me for being an old geezer but at least AI bots don't
         | tend to pepper their sentences with frequent utterances of
         | 'like'. I don't normally find this speech mannerism annoying,
         | and I do it myself too, but when 'like' is overused I switch
         | off.
         | 
         | For this reason I don't listen to the otherwise highly
         | entertaining CineFix podcast. Example: the recent episode
         | discussing Kill Bill vol 1 contains 624 utterances in 75 mins
         | (8.3 per min). IANAL I know.
        
           | mattmaroon wrote:
           | Ha that's not what IANAL means but perhaps should be
        
         | sourcepluck wrote:
         | Go back to the 1990s (even probably the 2000s?) and ask
         | literally anyone what they think of the idea of people spending
         | huge quantities of their time on this mortal plane watching
         | videos of other people talking about how they do their make up
         | and pick their outfits.
         | 
         | Are those videos "worth watching"? Are videos of people playing
         | video games "worth watching"? Are videos of people opening
         | products and saying out loud the information written on the box
         | and also easily accessible on the public internet "worth
         | watching"?
         | 
         | I'm not happy about these developments, but that isn't a factor
         | of much concern to the people driving and following these
         | trends, it turns out.
         | 
         | It's been a long time since "quality" and "success" have been
         | decoupled. Which is to say - I hope you like the taste of hats.
        
           | vunderba wrote:
           | I'm not disputing that people waste inordinate amounts of
           | time running out the clock before they shuffle off this
           | mortal coil. (cough every _X demograph reacts to Y video_
           | cough).
           | 
           | Agreement to eat said head apparel is predicated upon
           | "infectious energy" (i.e. quality) - _NOT_ success. I 'll
           | draft up a more officious document later.
           | 
           | Note: I am the sole arbiter of what constitutes quality.
        
             | eikenberry wrote:
             | You also seem to be the sole arbiter of what constitutes
             | worthy activities.
        
           | keiferski wrote:
           | _videos of other people talking about how they do their make
           | up and pick their outfits._
           | 
           | Doesn't seem that much different from a fashion magazine
           | interview about what X celebrity likes to wear. Those have
           | been around for quite a long time.
        
             | CuriouslyC wrote:
             | At least in the past people were celebrities for a reason
             | other than the number of followers they had on social. It'd
             | be nice if we could return to a time when people were part
             | of the public discourse because they were good at something
             | (or their parents were rich, sadly).
        
               | keiferski wrote:
               | That's not true at all. Fame for no reason or dumb
               | reasons is hardly a 21st century phenomenon.
        
               | refulgentis wrote:
               | No dog in this fight, I don't know what exactly you're
               | doing, but I'd cautiously point out that it is, in fact,
               | novel to the internet era to watch rando microcelebrities
               | doing makeup step by step, no matter how long we delay
               | acknowledging that with microquibbles.
               | 
               | I could throw in an example of how I'll watch boring
               | videos of a couple playing with their birds for 90
               | minutes on Youtube. You can link me to the Wikipedia page
               | on slow TV (via Norway), and it won't erase the simple,
               | boring, straightforward, fact that it is a phenomenon.
        
               | keiferski wrote:
               | I didn't interpret the original comment to be about micro
               | celebrities, but about people supposedly wasting time
               | today in ways they didn't beforehand. I agree that micro
               | celebrities are a new phenomenon somewhat (although they
               | are also sort of a return to more regional distribution
               | of fame.) But that wasn't the point being made.
        
               | CuriouslyC wrote:
               | The scale isn't even close, and it's become normalized
               | now. I think it bears talking about as a 21st century
               | phenomenon.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > At least in the past people were celebrities for a
               | reason other than the number of followers they had on
               | social.
               | 
               | "Other than"? Obviously, as social media didn't exist.
               | "Better than" or "more relevant to the things for which
               | there celebrity status was used to direct attention"? Not
               | particularly.
        
               | HWR_14 wrote:
               | Why does it matter if the celebrity was good at something
               | or not if you are just discussing what they wear?
        
           | skybrian wrote:
           | Bad TV is a lot older than that. It probably seems weird
           | nowadays to watch "I Dream of Jeanie" and "Gilligan's Island"
           | reruns because that's what was on TV. Or how about game shows
           | and soap operas? Daytime TV was the worst. But people
           | watched.
        
             | Gare wrote:
             | And pulp fiction is even older!
        
             | foobarian wrote:
             | Every now and then I play the Gilligan's Island theme song
             | because it's so catchy. Still no idea what the show is
             | about
        
           | MrMetric wrote:
           | To me, unboxing videos are documentation, not entertainment.
           | When I need to know exactly what's in a box and how it's
           | packaged, an unboxing video is the _only_ source of that
           | information.
        
             | thesuitonym wrote:
             | What's in the box is almost always on the box, and how it's
             | packaged seems to be very useless information.
        
           | dageshi wrote:
           | I'm pretty sure humans have been finding ways to
           | unproductively waste time for millenium...
           | 
           | I'm not sure how watching lightweight videos on subjects
           | you're curious about is any worse than how people wasted time
           | in the past?
           | 
           | Personally I waste time watching videos on outdoor gear,
           | coffee making equipment and PC hardware. I certainy don't
           | regret it because I had no plans to do anything productive
           | with that time either.
        
           | lagrange77 wrote:
           | > It's been a long time since "quality" and "success" have
           | been decoupled.
           | 
           | I think so, too.
           | 
           | I guess quality was a property of interest in the old days,
           | because the path e.g. for commercial music was: Maximize
           | profit -> Maximize sales -> Maximize what the target audience
           | likes -> Maximize quality.
           | 
           | For TikTok etc. they bypass the market sales stuff and
           | replace it by an 'algorithm', that optimizes for retention,
           | which is tightly coupled to ad revenue. I imagine the
           | algorithm as a function of many arguments.
           | 
           | Just relying on quality is an inefficient approximation in
           | contrast to that.
        
         | bilater wrote:
         | Again - think of where we were two years ago. I never
         | understand this hubris people have to think AI can never do X
         | while being proved repeatedly wrong.
        
           | vunderba wrote:
           | Everybody trots out this argument.
           | 
           | GPT styled LLMs were introduced back in 2018 so SIX years
           | ago.
           | 
           | Have they gotten more _COHERENT_? Absolutely. Is coherence
           | the same thing as _NOVELTY_? NOT EVEN REMOTELY. I 've played
           | with markov chains in the 90s that were capable of producing
           | surprising content.
           | 
           | Unless there is a radical advancement in the underlying tech,
           | I don't see any indication that they'll be capable of genuine
           | novelty any time in the near future.
           | 
           | Take satire for example. I have yet to see anything come out
           | of an LLM that felt particularly funny. I suppose if the
           | height of humor for you is Dad jokes, reddit level word
           | punnery, and the backs of snapple lids though that might be
           | different.
        
             | CuriouslyC wrote:
             | If you have a particular style of witty observational humor
             | that you prefer, providing the model some examples of that
             | will help it generate better output. It's capable of
             | generating pretty much anything if you prompt it the right
             | way. For truly nuanced or novel things, you have to give it
             | a nucleus of novelty and axis of nuance for it to start
             | generating things in your desired space.
        
           | input_sh wrote:
           | Two years ago we had ChatGPT and Midjourney. Now... we also
           | have those?
           | 
           | The accelerationism argument made a little bit of sense two
           | years ago, but now, after two years of marginal improvements
           | at best? Really?
        
         | grecy wrote:
         | I agree with your overall statement, but
         | 
         | > _If you can find an LLM+TTS generated podcast with even a
         | FRACTION of the infectious energy as something like Good Job
         | Brain, Radio Lab, or Ask Me Another, then I 'll eat my hat._
         | 
         | Come on, we can all see how much faster these things are
         | getting better. In a few years it will be _impossible_ to
         | distinguish them from a real person.
         | 
         | Another few after that video will be the same.
         | 
         | I'm not saying it's a good thing, but clearly it's a thing that
         | will happen.
        
         | petercooper wrote:
         | Someone in 2020: _" If you can find a computer program that can
         | generate an image with even a FRACTION of the aesthetic appeal
         | of human created art...."_
         | 
         | Give it time. Progress is fast.
        
           | smitelli wrote:
           | "Generate" does not have the same connotation that "create"
           | does. Are they really that interchangeable?
        
           | WgaqPdNr7PGLGVW wrote:
           | > Give it time. Progress is fast.
           | 
           | Why pick 2020 as your starting point? That is simply around
           | the time the current set of techniques came about.
           | 
           | We had generative art back in the late 90's - my screensaver
           | has been generative art for over 20 years now.
           | 
           | Obviously generative art has come a long way but people have
           | been working on various approaches to it for at least 30
           | years.
        
             | petercooper wrote:
             | From 2020 until now, we've gone from crude blurry or
             | clearly generative artefacts to being able to create full
             | professional illustrations based upon textual prompts. That
             | is _huge._ Classic generative art techniques look like cave
             | paintings compared to what the latest image generation
             | models put out (and I 'm not talking about "AI slop" type
             | stuff that DALL-E does).
             | 
             | Similarly, tools could fabricate podcasts years ago that
             | sounded terrible. Now we have NotebookLM doing a
             | "reasonable" job with two cliched-sounding "hosts". In a
             | few years, will they potentially be able to create
             | something akin to a professionally produced podcast given
             | some smart prompting? The progress made so far points to
             | yes, and I haven't seen any evidence so far to be
             | pessimistic about it happening.
        
               | WgaqPdNr7PGLGVW wrote:
               | Can current techniques be scaled/improved/optimized to do
               | this or do we need new techniques?
               | 
               | It took 30 years in the generative art world to move from
               | cave paintings to the level that we have today _because_
               | we needed new techniques.
               | 
               | For podcasts we are at the cave paintings level.
               | 
               | If we can get to professional level quality podcasts with
               | the current techniques then we might only be a few years
               | away.
               | 
               | I think it is more likely we will need new techniques
               | which puts us potentially decades away.
               | 
               | If we look at LLMs the improvements over the last 18+
               | months since gpt4 was released have been minor despite
               | incredible levels of investment.
        
         | grumbel wrote:
         | The value in AI podcasts at the moment isn't in replacing human
         | content, but in filling the niches that human content just
         | doesn't cover. Doesn't matter if it's not the best podcast
         | ever, when it's literally the only podcast on this planet
         | discussing the topic you want to listen too.
        
         | mikkelam wrote:
         | The main reason im not concerned about AI-based entertainment
         | is the same reason I watch human chess players. It's not only
         | about technical capabilities. I can't explain fully why
         | though..
        
         | fsckboy wrote:
         | ah, a motte and bailey lunch invitation, "would ever be worth
         | listening to", so "if you can find [now]", then I'll eat my hat
        
         | LegitShady wrote:
         | I dont think LLM + TTS generated podcasts even make sense. The
         | whole reason for long form content and podcasts is that people
         | dislike fake and impersonal content.
         | 
         | I think there are a few niche users who just want to listen to
         | the news as an audio book but the whole idea of an LLM
         | generated podcast totally misunderstands why people want a
         | podcast over the normal corporate drivel media.
        
         | icetank wrote:
         | I think we will get a surprising amount of AI generated content
         | in the future. During the first year of the Urkain invasion
         | there was an enormous amount of AI voiced and scripted video
         | content on YouTube. I think AI content will take over in the
         | easy parts first. And over time take up more and more views.
        
           | iwontberude wrote:
           | Do you not use autocorrect?
        
         | nox101 wrote:
         | I've heard amazing catchy songs from Suno and Udio. So much so
         | they're still stuck in my head as earworms several months
         | later. If they'd been streaming on youtube or spotify I
         | wouldn't have given it a thought that they might be AI
         | generated.
         | 
         | So, I can certainly imagine a podcast doing the same to some
         | degree. Maybe not a podcast where AI wrote the script, but, a
         | podcast where AI read a story dramatically doesn't seem too far
         | off or, easier, a podcast that read news to me.
        
           | card_zero wrote:
           | We had this recently, yes.
           | 
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41693087
           | 
           | It's kind of horrible.
        
         | edm0nd wrote:
         | How would you go about eating said stovetop hat?
         | 
         | Would you eat it raw or would you have to boil it down to
         | soften it up and then drink/eat its hat soup?
        
           | topato wrote:
           | Cook it like stovetop stuffing, I'd imagine....
           | 
           | Isn't it a stovePIPE hat?
        
           | vunderba wrote:
           | Thank you for focusing on the real point of my post. :)
           | 
           | I was thinking I'd just unhinge my jaw in the style of 90s
           | Reach Toothbrush commercials or like a human pez dispenser.
        
         | mikeocool wrote:
         | Agreed. I finally got around to listening to a NotebookLM
         | generated podcast this weekend, and found it absolutely
         | unlistenable.
         | 
         | For some reason the LLM seemed to latch on to the idea that one
         | host should say something, and the other host should just
         | repeat a key phrase in the sentence for emphasis -- and say
         | nothing else, and they'd do it like multiple times in a
         | sentence, over and over again throughout the entire thing.
         | 
         | Slightly less weird -- but it seems like the LLM caught on that
         | a good narrative structure for a two-host podcast is that one
         | host is the 'expert' on the topic, and the other host plays
         | dumb and ask questions. Not an unreasonable narrative
         | structure. Except that the hosts would seamlessly, and very
         | weirdly, switch roles constantly throughout the podcast.
         | 
         | And ultimately the result was just a high level summary of the
         | article I had provided. They told me in the intro and the outro
         | about the interesting parts they were going to dive into, but
         | they never actually got around to diving into those parts.
        
           | ryoshu wrote:
           | There are a lot of "uh huh", "yeah", "agree" types of
           | statements in odd places as well.
        
           | jcims wrote:
           | I tried it with something fairly abstract about a decision I
           | was working on making. Fed it a bunch of information, details
           | about me, my background, the factors I'm considering in the
           | decision and the impact of getting it right/wrong.
           | 
           | It was interesting. I certainly wouldn't say it was useless,
           | I think the contrived dialogue actually touched on some
           | angles I hadn't considered and I think it was useful. Not in
           | a 'oh shit it's clear to me now' kind of way but it
           | definitely advanced my thinking.
        
           | benatkin wrote:
           | Hmm, does Google not use the Claude or ChatGPT API for it? I
           | still don't hear of people chatting with Gemini nearly as
           | often as with the other two.
           | 
           | Edit: looks like the subreddit is still called Bard. Well
           | played, Internets. https://www.reddit.com/r/Bard/comments/1g0
           | egad/gemini_vs_not...
        
           | sleepybrett wrote:
           | > For some reason the LLM seemed to latch on to the idea that
           | one host should say something, and the other host should just
           | repeat a key phrase in the sentence for emphasis -- and say
           | nothing else, and they'd do it like multiple times in a
           | sentence, over and over again throughout the entire thing.
           | 
           |  _cough_ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA
        
           | yieldcrv wrote:
           | I find it as listenable as the podcasts the people I'm around
           | play in their cars during roadtrips
           | 
           | To me that's absolutely unlistenable, but to them its
           | interesting and engaging. I find NotebookLM replicates that
           | perfectly. Its not at all the issue that the OP encountered
           | with the Hawaii news service, as those lacked tone and
           | pronounciation, which NotebookLM would not.
           | 
           | Regarding the outcome being a long winded summary, yeah thats
           | what I see about the aforementioned 2 hour podcasts as well.
           | They take the intro paragraph of a wikipedia article, pretend
           | that the topic is a novel mystery they just discovered
           | through hours of scouring microfilm at a municipal library,
           | and then interject each other every other word with nonsense,
           | before getting back to the point for just one sentence.
        
         | ben_w wrote:
         | Infectious energy is something I expect faked relatively
         | easily, though I don't know your examples and doing it in AI
         | might be a "first 90%" situation just like self driving cars;
         | for me the problem is that they're fairly mediocre at the
         | actual script -- based on me putting a blog post I wrote into
         | one and listening to what came out.
         | 
         | Given how many podcasts exist, I think you need to be at least
         | 2 standard deviations above mean to even get noticed, 3 to be a
         | moderate success, and 4 to be in the charts.
         | 
         | I'd guess AI is "good enough" to be 1 above average, as the
         | NotebookLM voices sound like people speaking clearly and with
         | some joy into decent microphones in sound isolating studios.
        
         | yapyap wrote:
         | > Slightly tangential, but this is the reason I'm baffled why
         | people think that AI-driven podcasts would ever be worth
         | listening to
         | 
         | the only real people that believe in that that I've seen are
         | ones who are heavily invested in it succeeding
        
         | dennis_jeeves2 wrote:
         | >I'm baffled why people think that AI-driven podcasts would
         | ever be worth listening to
         | 
         | It doesn't take much to entertain a substantial population of
         | imbeciles. Reference:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYkbqzWVHZI
         | 
         | Now for the hat...
        
         | Lerc wrote:
         | I think it's quite easy for AI to surpass the _median_ podcast.
         | The bar is fairly low there.
         | 
         | I guess that matches the state of AI in general, better than a
         | novice; worse than an expert.
         | 
         | We will have to wait and see what future AIs deliver. Insight
         | and nuance is what I look for in media like that, that's a much
         | harder nut to crack.
        
         | stevage wrote:
         | The average podcast fails that test, but does fine.
        
         | hiisukun wrote:
         | I do enjoy some of the podcasts mentioned in this thread, but
         | struggle to find good non-American ("foreign"?!) podcasts to
         | listen to. Similarly to finding good quality non-US film and
         | television, it can be hard to locate but I greatly enjoy it.
         | 
         | If anyone has suggestions for podcast collation sites that are
         | for non American content that would be fantastic.
        
         | guestbest wrote:
         | I'd rather listen to silence than a podcast or FM/AM talk
         | radio. I've never understood the appeal. In fact music is
         | something I listen to while traveling because it helps me
         | daydream. Driving and imagining for me.
        
         | sleepybrett wrote:
         | Media ceos ignore customer engagement and focus on content
         | production to their detriment.
        
         | bsder wrote:
         | Because the problem is that "AI generated" content is _vapid
         | slop_. The problem is that most  "human generated" content is
         | also _vapid slop_.
         | 
         | My problems on the modern internet are simply that I can't find
         | interesting things through the slop, _period_ --human or AI
         | generated.
         | 
         | It will be interesting to see if "curation" can actually find a
         | business model this time.
        
         | czhu12 wrote:
         | I don't really think that its for the same use case. I recently
         | wanted to learn more about Jane of Arc after listening to a
         | Rest is History episode about the hundred years war.
         | 
         | I took the wikipedia article and had NotebookLM generate a
         | podcast from it so I can listen to it on a commute.
         | 
         | The other thing I could've done is search for an existing
         | podcast on Joan of Arc, but I challenge anyone here to search
         | existing podcasts and listen to the first, best reviewed one --
         | I think you'd find more often than not that the average podcast
         | host is _significantly_ more dry than what the generated hosts
         | present. The podcasts that are incredible are few and far
         | between, and I have no influence over the topics they discuss.
         | 
         | Tldr: I'd prefer my top podcasts more than NotebookLM, but
         | prefer NotebookLM to the average podcast host.
        
       | fny wrote:
       | Give it time y'all. This is the first inning, and I'm already
       | terrified.
       | 
       | I encourage you to have a conversation with ChatGPT's advanced
       | audio for a taste of what's to come. If you can, have someone
       | talk to it in a relatively unpopular language like Afrikaans or
       | even Icelandic--they will shit their pants.
        
         | alternatex wrote:
         | I'd be terrified if anyone considers this reporting watchable.
         | I felt depressed after 30 seconds. It's like an episode of
         | Black Mirror.
        
           | Xenoamorphous wrote:
           | > This is the first inning
           | 
           | I think this is the key part.
        
             | namaria wrote:
             | How is a very off putting start a good thing?
        
               | Xenoamorphous wrote:
               | The videos in question would've been considered science
               | fiction a mere 5 years ago, so I definitely don't
               | consider them a _very off putting start_.
               | 
               | That doesn't mean that I think they're perfect or that
               | the technology will keep improving at a fast pace (nobody
               | knows for sure).
        
             | whtsthmttrmn wrote:
             | But this could be a strange form of baseball that only has
             | two innings. No one knows for sure either way.
        
         | nessbot wrote:
         | Terrified of what? and First inning of what, when did that
         | inning start?
        
         | jandrese wrote:
         | I'm not so convinced. A lot of people have been noting the
         | rapid development of ML systems in the past few years and
         | projecting continued exponential improvements based on previous
         | growth rates, but unbounded exponential improvement doesn't
         | happen. This is an S curve and I think we're already well into
         | the diminishing returns part of the curve. I think future
         | growth is going to require increasingly impractical amounts of
         | hardware for ever smaller levels of improvement.
         | 
         | People saying that this version is flawed but still amazing, so
         | the next version is going to be perfect and mind blowing are
         | going to be disappointed I think. The next version will be
         | slightly better but still flawed. The version after that will
         | be a touch better but annoyingly still not quite there.
         | Constantly teasing you that full success is just around the
         | corner while never quite getting there.
        
         | unethical_ban wrote:
         | Is there an open source GPT? I have LM studio and Qwen 2.5
         | which is basically as good as leading models in Nov 2024, but
         | haven't found the software to run audio or video generation.
        
       | ricksunny wrote:
       | "Those responsible for sacking the people who have just been
       | sacked, have been sacked."
        
       | schlauerfox wrote:
       | A way to lay off with justification, then hire back cheaper
       | talent? If i'm being cynical.
        
       | sailfast wrote:
       | Clickbait title for a decent write-up. The author left Hawaii,
       | and as indicated in the article the local press resorted to AI
       | presenters because it was hard to keep talent on board. This is
       | not a "job replacement" story so much as a "backup plan" story in
       | my opinion.
        
         | jandrese wrote:
         | > local press resorted to AI presenters because it was hard to
         | keep talent on board
         | 
         | I see a phrase like that and my first thought is "the pay is
         | crap" and/or "the bosses are awful" and nobody in their right
         | mind would work there.
        
       | mmooss wrote:
       | The disruptive technology adoption process is at least somewhat
       | predictable, including:
       | 
       | * Most people react negatively to the disruption because of the
       | risk, fear of the unknown, and also because people don't like
       | change.
       | 
       | * Also, early in the development and adoption of a new, immature
       | technology, there is a lot of trial and error regarding
       | applications, mostly error. Sometimes those failures are because
       | the application isn't a good match for the technology; often they
       | are because the technology isn't mature and will still improve
       | and add major features, or because the details of the interface
       | between technology and application are still being worked out.
       | 
       | * The people reacting negatively will point out those errors as
       | signs that the technology is hopeless. Often they are wrong: the
       | tech will mature and improve, and those people will be eclipsed.
       | 
       | The good news is, they won't remember it that way: _First they
       | laugh at you, then they tell you it isn 't in the Bible (i.e., it
       | violates the orthodoxy, the way things always have been done),
       | then they say they knew it all along._ AI is in stage 2.
        
         | tartoran wrote:
         | At least this is funny in the way it looks robotic and dorky.
         | When it gets better it will become increasingly scary to go on
         | this road. Why would anyone want to watch anything gen AI other
         | than a one off curiosity?
        
       | syncsynchalt wrote:
       | I _had_ to hear the pumpkin clip in context (at 2m50s):
       | https://www.facebook.com/TheGardenIsland/videos/112002117287...
       | 
       | Any ten seconds of that clip will do though, really.
        
         | andix wrote:
         | Thanks, this is really important context, I expected a link to
         | an example video as the first comment.
         | 
         | And yes, it's really bad. No idea how someone could think this
         | could replace a human.
        
       | datahack wrote:
       | While I enjoyed the article, it's just another in a line of the
       | same article with different flavors and authors that all have the
       | same fundamental error.
       | 
       | The prevailing counterargument against AI consistently hinges on
       | the present state of AI rather than the trajectory of its
       | development: but what matters is _not the capabilities of AI as
       | they exist today, but the astonishing velocity at which those
       | capabilities are evolving_.
        
         | bdndndndbve wrote:
         | We've been through this song and dance before. AI researchers
         | make legitimately impressive breakthroughs in specific tasks,
         | people extrapolate linear growth, the air comes out of the
         | balloon after a couple years when it turns out we couldn't just
         | throw progressively larger models at the problem to emulate
         | human cognition.
         | 
         | I'm surprised that tech workers who should be the most
         | skeptical about this kind of stuff end up being the most
         | breathlessly hyperbolic. Everyone is so eager to get rich off
         | the trend they discard any skepticism.
        
           | palla89 wrote:
           | This comment summarize my thought in the best way.
        
           | glitchc wrote:
           | It's like con artists and management consultants. They are
           | the most susceptible because they drink the koolaid.
        
           | richardw wrote:
           | Two things can both be true. I keep arguing both sides
           | because:
           | 
           | 1 Unless you're aware of near term limits you think AI is
           | going to the stars next year.
           | 
           | 2 Architectures change. The only thing that doesn't change is
           | that we generally push on, temporarily limits are usually
           | overcome and there's a lot riding on this. It's not a smart
           | move to bet against progress over the medium term. This is
           | also where the real benefits and risks lie.
           | 
           | Is AI in general more like going to space, or string theory?
           | One is hard but doable. Other is a tar pit for money and
           | talent. We are all currently placing our bets.
        
             | bangaroo wrote:
             | point 2 is the thing that i think is most important to
             | point out:
             | 
             | "architectures change"
             | 
             | sure, that's a fact. let me apply this to other fields:
             | 
             | "there could be a battery breakthrough that gives electric
             | cars a 2,000 mile range." "researchers could discover a new
             | way to build nanorobots that attacks cancer directly and
             | effectively cures all versions of it." "we could invent a
             | new sort of aviation engine that is 1,000x more fuel
             | efficient than the current generation."
             | 
             | i mean, yeah, sure. i guess.
             | 
             | the current hype is built on LLMs, and being charitable
             | "LLMs built with current architecture." there are other
             | things in the works, but most of the current generation of
             | AI hype are a limited number of algorithms and approaches,
             | mixed and matched in different ways, with other features
             | bolted on to try and corral them into behaving as we hope.
             | it is much more realistic to expect that we are in the
             | period of diminishing returns as far as investing in these
             | approaches than it is to believe we'll continue to see
             | earth-shattering growth. nothing has appeared that had the
             | initial "wow" factor of the early versions of suno, or gpt,
             | or dall-e, or sora, or whatever else.
             | 
             | this is clearly and plainly a tech bubble. it's so
             | transparently one, it's hard to understand how folks aren't
             | seeing it. all these tools have been in the mainstream for
             | a pretty substantial period of time (relatively) and the
             | honest truth is they're just not moving the needle in many
             | industries. the most frequent practical application of them
             | in practice has been summarization, editing, and rewriting,
             | which is a neat little parlor trick - but all the same,
             | it's indicative of the fact that they largely model
             | language, so that's primarily what they're good at.
             | 
             | you can bet on something entirely new being discovered...
             | but what? there just isn't anything inching closer to that
             | general AI hype we're all hearing about that exists in the
             | real world. i'm sure folks are cooking on things, but that
             | doesn't mean they're near production-ready. saying "this
             | isn't a bubble because one day someone might invent
             | something that's actually good" is kind of giving away the
             | game - the current generation isn't that good, and we can't
             | point to the thing that's going to overtake it.
        
               | richardw wrote:
               | > but most of the current generation of AI hype are a
               | limited number of algorithms and approaches, mixed and
               | matched in different ways, with other features bolted on
               | to try and corral them into behaving as we hope. it is
               | much more realistic to expect that we are in the period
               | of diminishing returns as far as investing in these
               | approaches than it is to believe we'll continue to see
               | earth-shattering growth.
               | 
               | 100% agree, but I think those who disagree with that are
               | failing on point 1. I absolutely think we'll need
               | something different, but I'm also sure that there's a
               | solid chance we get there, with a lot of bracketing
               | around "eventually".
               | 
               | When something has been done once before, we have a
               | directional map and we can often copy fairly quickly. See
               | OpenAI to Claude.
               | 
               | We know animals are smarter than LLM's in the important,
               | learning day-to-day ways, so we have a directional
               | compass. We know the fundamentals are relatively simple,
               | because randomness found them before we did. We know it's
               | possible, just figuring out if it's possible with
               | anything like the hardware we have now.
               | 
               | We don't know if a battery like that is possible - there
               | are no comparisons to make, no steer that says "it's
               | there, keep looking".
               | 
               | This is also the time in history with the most compute
               | capacity coming online and the most people trying to
               | solve it. Superpowers, superscalers, all universities,
               | many people over areas as diverse as neuro, psych who
               | wouldn't have looked at the domain 5 years ago are now
               | very motivated to be relevant, to study or build in
               | related areas. We've tasted success. So my opinion is
               | based on us having made progress, the emerging
               | understanding of what it means for individuals and
               | countries in terms of competitive landscape, and the
               | desire to be a part of shaping that future rather than
               | having it happen to us. ~Everyone is very motivated.
               | 
               | Betting against that just seems like a risky choice.
               | Honestly, what would you bet, over what timeframe? How
               | strongly would you say you're certain of your position?
               | I'm not challenging you, I just think it's a good frame
               | for grounding opinions. In the end, we really are making
               | those bets.
               | 
               | My bands are pretty wide. I can make a case for 5 years
               | to AGI, or 100 years. Top of my head without thinking,
               | I'd put a small amount on 5 years, all my money on within
               | 100, 50% or more within 20/30.
        
           | iainctduncan wrote:
           | You articulated my view perfectly. I just don't get the buy
           | in from people who should know better than trust vc funded
           | talking heads.
        
           | 93po wrote:
           | This is confusing. We've never had a ChatGPT-like innovation
           | before to compare to. Yes, there have been AI hype cycles for
           | decades, but the difference is that we now have permanent
           | invaluable and society-changing tools out of the current AI
           | cycle, combined with hundreds of billions of dollars being
           | thrown at it in a level of investment we've never seen
           | before. Unless you're on the bleeding edge of AI research
           | yourself, or one of the people investing billions of dollars,
           | it is really unclear to me how anyone can have confidence of
           | where AI is _not_ going
        
             | unsui wrote:
             | Because the hype will always outdistance the utility, on
             | average.
             | 
             | Yes, you'll get peaks where innovation takes everyone by
             | surprise.
             | 
             | Then the salesbots will pivot, catch up, and ingest the
             | innovation into the pitch machine as per usual.
             | 
             | So yes, there is genuine innovation and surprise. That's
             | not what is being discussed. It's the hype that inevitably
             | overwhelms the innovation, and also inevitably pollutes the
             | pool with increasing noise. That's just human nature,
             | trying to make a quick buck from the new-hotness.
        
             | vunderba wrote:
             | I don't agree with this.
             | 
             | There's a big difference between something that benefits
             | productivity versus something that benefits humanity.
             | 
             | I think a good test for if it genuinely has changed society
             | is if all gen AI were to disappear overnight. I would argue
             | that nothing would really fundamentally change.
             | 
             | Contrast that with the sudden disappearance of the
             | internet, or the combustion engine.
        
               | snapcaster wrote:
               | It will take time though, if the internet had completely
               | disappeared in the mid 90s nothing would have
               | fundamentally changed
        
           | segasaturn wrote:
           | There's a reason why so many of the people on the crypto
           | grift in 2020-2022 have jumped to the AI grift. Same logic of
           | "revolution is just around the corner", with the added mix of
           | AGI millenarianism which hits a lot of nerds' soft spots.
        
           | itronitron wrote:
           | >> I'm surprised that tech workers ... end up being the most
           | breathlessly hyperbolic.
           | 
           | We're not.
        
           | hansonkd wrote:
           | I think the mistake is that in the media it is extrapolating
           | linear growth but in practice it is a wobbly path. And this
           | wobbly path allows anyone to create whatever nearrative they
           | want.
           | 
           | It reminds me of seeing headlines last week that NVDA is down
           | after investors were losing faith after the last earnings.
           | Then you look at the graph and NVDA is only like 10% off its
           | all times high and still in and out of the most valuable
           | company in the world.
           | 
           | Advancement is never linear. But I believe AI trends will
           | continue up and to the right and even in 20 years when AI can
           | do remarkably advanced things that we can barely comprehend,
           | there will be internet commentary about how its all just
           | hype.
        
           | foobarian wrote:
           | One problem is that people assume the end goal is to create a
           | human-cognition-capable AI. I think it' pretty obvious by
           | this point that that's not going to happen. But there is no
           | need for that at all to still cause a huge disruption; let's
           | say most current workers in roles that benefit from AI
           | (copilot, writing, throwaway clipart, repetitive tasks,
           | summarizing, looking up stuff, etc.) lead not even to job
           | loss but fewer future jobs created - what does that mean for
           | the incoming juniors? What does that mean for the people
           | looking for that kind of work? It's not obvious at all how
           | big of a problem that will create.
        
             | mattnewton wrote:
             | > human-cognition-capable AI. I think it' pretty obvious by
             | this point that that's not going to happen
             | 
             | It's obvious to some people but that's not what many
             | investors and company operators are saying. I think the
             | prevailing message in the valley is "AGI is going to
             | happen" for different values of when, not if. So I think
             | you'd be forgiven for taking them at face value.
        
         | lawn wrote:
         | It's getting old but there's an xkcd for your kind of
         | reasoning:
         | 
         | https://xkcd.com/605/
        
           | nsavage wrote:
           | Isn't this essentially the same argument as "there are only
           | 10 covid cases in this area, nothing to worry about"?
           | 
           | It's really missing the point, the point is whether or not
           | exponential growth is happening or not. It doesn't with
           | husbands, it does with covid, time will tell about AI.
        
             | SiempreViernes wrote:
             | No, because as you rightly point out we know exponential
             | growth is very possible with Covid but we don't know if
             | that will happen with AI.
             | 
             | In fact, the only evidence we have for exponential growth
             | in AI is the word of the people selling it to us.
        
             | namaria wrote:
             | Transformers have been around for 7 years, ChatGPT for 2.
             | This isn't the first few samples of what could be
             | exponential growth. These are several quarters of
             | overpromise and underdelivery. The chatbot is cool and it
             | outperforms what awful product search has become. But is it
             | enough to support a 3.5 trillion dollar sized parts
             | supplier?
        
         | lukev wrote:
         | But we don't know if AI development is following an exponential
         | or sigmoid curve (actually we do kind of, now, but that's
         | beside the point for this post.)
         | 
         | A wise institution will make decisions based on _current_
         | capabilities, not a prognostication.
        
           | brabel wrote:
           | If investors didn't invest based on expected future
           | performance, the share market would look completely different
           | than it actually does today. So, I can't understand how
           | anyone can claim that.
        
         | phreack wrote:
         | I honestly believe this specific case is a Pareto situation
         | where the first 80% came at breakneck speeds, and the final 20%
         | just won't come in a satisfactory way. And the uncanny valley
         | effect demands a percentage that's extremely close to 100%
         | before it has any use. Neural networks are great at
         | approximations, but an approximate person is just a nightmare.
        
         | nitwit005 wrote:
         | What is your time horizon? We're already at a date where people
         | were saying these jobs would be gone. The people most
         | optimistic about the trajectory of this technology were clearly
         | wrong.
         | 
         | If you tell me AI newscasters will be fully functional in 10 or
         | 15 years, I'll believe it. But that far in the future, I'd also
         | believe news will be totally transformed due to some other
         | technology we aren't thinking about yet.
        
         | lolinder wrote:
         | > The prevailing counterargument against AI consistently hinges
         | on the present state of AI rather than the trajectory of its
         | development: but what matters is not the capabilities of AI as
         | they exist today, but the astonishing velocity at which those
         | capabilities are evolving.
         | 
         | No, the prevailing counter argument is that the prevailing
         | argument in favor of AI taking over everything assumes that the
         | acceleration will remain approximately constant, when in fact
         | we don't know that it will do so and we have every reason to
         | believe that it won't.
         | 
         | No technology in history has ever maintained an exponential
         | growth curve for very long. Every innovation has followed the
         | same pattern:
         | 
         | * There's a major scientific breakthrough which redefines what
         | is possible.
         | 
         | * That breakthrough leads to a rapid increase in technology
         | along a certain axis.
         | 
         | * We eventually see a plateau where we reach the limits of this
         | new paradigm and begin to adapt to the new normal.
         | 
         | AI hypists always talk as though we should extrapolate the last
         | 2 years' growth curve out to 10 years and come to the
         | conclusion that General Intelligence is inevitable, but to do
         | so would be to assume that this particular technological curve
         | will behave very differently than all previous curves.
         | 
         | Instead, what I and many others argue is that we are already
         | starting to see the plateau. We are now in the phase where
         | we've hit the limits of what these models are capable of and
         | we're moving on to adapting them to a variety of use cases.
         | This will bring more change, but it will be slower and not as
         | seismic as the hype would lead you to believe, because we've
         | already gotten off the exponential train.
        
       | insane_dreamer wrote:
       | Unfortunately, I see this as only a small temporary setback in
       | the unstoppable quest to replace humans with AI to cut corporate
       | costs.
       | 
       | The aspect of AI that isn't discussed enough is not what are
       | those formerly employed going to do next, but rather that it will
       | potentially represent the largest transfer of wealth in history
       | as money which was going into employees' salaries is instead
       | going to shareholders via those large companies who have the
       | ability to produce the AIs (even if there are a host of small
       | companies who act as an intermediate layer, such as the Israeli
       | firm in this case).
       | 
       | I do think there is going to be a backlash because of our need
       | for and desire for human connections, which AI won't provide. But
       | that will become more expensive, and not the norm. Just like we
       | can still buy farmer-fresh food but only a minority segment of
       | the population can afford it because it costs 3x what is pushed
       | as "food" at Walmart.
        
       | Workaccount2 wrote:
       | The article might give the impression of some kind of LLM SOTA
       | model being slotted in, but visiting the website of the company
       | they used, Caledo, it looks like they are using 2014 level
       | technology.
       | 
       | Poorly animated CGI newscaster reading an "AI" written script.
       | Really their tech looks awful and dated.
        
       | cryptozeus wrote:
       | Is it just me or does everyone feel this way ? Its an instant put
       | off for me when i hear that article was generated by AI. I would
       | lose trust of that publication and move on.
       | 
       | People think AI is the magic answer for shitty content. In some
       | cases AI is only adding speed not quality.
        
       | INTPenis wrote:
       | This is an extreme example, also this person would never lose
       | their job that easy if there were laws protecting workers.
       | 
       | But what I have seen here in Sweden is AI voiceover used in news
       | reports where people have hidden identities. So clearly this has
       | taken a job from someone who used to do this voiceover. But it's
       | working, we have to adapt to these small changes that AI is
       | bringing.
        
       | hansonkd wrote:
       | the CocaCola commercial that everyone "hated" that "destroyed the
       | brand equity" according to numerous news outlets solidified to me
       | that we are passing a mark and this is the last desperate gasp of
       | multiple industries coping with the rapid advancements AI is
       | bringing.
       | 
       | Sure the Coke ad was a bit cringe. But the reality is in 5 years
       | most ads you see will be AI and nobody will care.
       | 
       | That along with the Ben Affleck Rant that AI won't replace
       | Hollywood. Watching Ben Affleck talking about how you can't
       | replace the chemistry of actors working on set made me imagine
       | what the conversations of famous stage actors were when film came
       | along. You can argue film didn't replace the stage, after all
       | broadway is still there, but it is not comparable to the economic
       | influence of TV and Film.
       | 
       | In 10-20 years, human made Film, TV will still exist. But it will
       | most likely be a small amount of the economic activity that AI
       | produced media will be.
       | 
       | It doesn't matter if _you_ care how terrible or how cringe AI is.
       | Or that AI quality is worse than what existed before. What
       | matters is in 5-20 years with a new generation what 90% of them
       | care and if AI has more utility that not using AI. In the authors
       | case in the short term for that particular medium, AI was not
       | more useful. But in the long term AI will dominate every facet of
       | our media.
        
         | hnthrowaway6543 wrote:
         | counter-point: You're in the hackernews comment section. Why
         | aren't you just asking ChatGPT to generate comments for you on
         | this article?
         | 
         | Pontificate on this, then return.
        
           | hansonkd wrote:
           | This isn't an economically driven platform that is directly
           | revenue driven like ads, movies, news articles, podcasts, etc
           | for one.
           | 
           | go to reddit or even linkedin which is revenue driven and it
           | is a sea of bots parroting the same tired points with
           | comments that are 1 or 2 words different from other comments
           | directly above them.
           | 
           | My entire point is that human production is not going to
           | zero, but is moving to a minority.
           | 
           | I still go to the theatre and listen to live orchestras but I
           | would be a fool to say that other mass media types didn't
           | replace the cultural role of entertainment that those forms
           | once had.
        
             | hnthrowaway6543 wrote:
             | Yeah but why are you consuming human-generated garbage
             | comments on HN instead of just getting infinite comments
             | from ChatGPT?
             | 
             | Pontificate on this, then return.
        
               | hansonkd wrote:
               | Thats irrelevant to what I am saying. You want all or
               | nothing. I am saying AI will dominate in the majority and
               | human generated content will still survive in the
               | minority.
               | 
               | It doesn't matter what luddites like myself think. It
               | matters what is economically viable to the masses.
               | 
               | Perhaps with such excellent examples of human thought
               | such as your comment eventually ChatGPT comments won't
               | seem so bad.
        
               | hnthrowaway6543 wrote:
               | You are choosing to consume human-generated content even
               | though _right now_ you could go to ChatGPT and get
               | infinite AI-generated content, for free!
               | 
               | Why is that?
        
           | unethical_ban wrote:
           | When you put in significantly less effort into the
           | conversation and refuse to acknowledge the points being made
           | by others in the conversation, it appears to be trolling,
           | whether it is meant to be or not. Repeating your prompt in
           | three successive comments without modification isn't
           | productive.
           | 
           | The other commenter's point isn't about _them_ individually -
           | it is about industry trends and what will make money.
           | 
           | People hate ads, but Youtube just keeps pushing more and more
           | and people watch Youtube. People dislike being tracked (so
           | they say) but they keep Tiktok and Instagram on their phones.
           | People claim to care about worker wages but don't blink at
           | buying cheap Chinese merch or watching their favorite
           | cartoons with outsourced, overworked, non-union foreign
           | animators.
           | 
           | Your point isn't countering theirs. They didn't say "No one
           | will ever want human entertainment in 10 years". They suggest
           | that companies will push it to lower costs, and many will go
           | along with it because there will be fewer options.
        
       | anoncow wrote:
       | I felt conflicted as I listened to the AI generated audio.
        
       | lazystar wrote:
       | hmm no one has discussed this "carpenter group", who appear to be
       | on a spree in 2024 of snatching up smaller news orgs, and cutting
       | 50% of the staff. seems like a pretty big gamble on AI.
       | 
       | > Carpenter Media Group announced earlier this month it had
       | acquired another group of newspapers, Pamplin Media Group, in
       | Oregon. The company now owns and manages 180 newspapers in the
       | United States and Canada.
       | 
       | > "We are committed to Everett, The Herald and all who have a
       | stake in its success," Chairman Todd Carpenter said. "We have
       | deep sympathy for those affected by these changes and will work
       | hard with each of them to see they are well-compensated through a
       | transition period that helps them move forward in a positive way.
       | 
       | "Our responsibility to the community and our readers requires us
       | to make difficult business decisions, and then invest in and
       | organize our team to move forward to produce a product that
       | continues to improve and serve. Our track record in this process
       | is good."
       | 
       | https://www.heraldnet.com/news/this-breaks-my-heart-roughly-...
       | 
       | would be very interested to see todd carpenter's data on that
       | last point.
       | 
       | edit - the carpenter media group does not have a wikipedia entry,
       | but the companies it owns do. interesting
       | 
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pamplin_Media_Group
        
       | imglorp wrote:
       | If you're wondering just how much to cringe, here's a sample.
       | https://youtu.be/48Y-pCffh10
        
       | Unknoob wrote:
       | Opened the article and decided to try out the "Listen to this
       | story" section.
       | 
       | After reading the article name and author, it proceeds to state
       | "This is an AI generated narration".
       | 
       | Well, well, well.
        
         | moffkalast wrote:
         | How the turntables...
        
       | throw_a_grenade wrote:
       | https://archive.is/20241121120946/https://www.wired.com/stor...
        
       | grahamj wrote:
       | "The AI Reporter That Took My Old Job"
       | 
       | ...
       | 
       | "James and Rose did not actively supplant any existing newsroom
       | jobs"
        
       | voytec wrote:
       | We seem to have a weird drive towards testing one sci-fi dystopia
       | after another as a potential way to go. This is Max Headroom.
        
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