[HN Gopher] How do cars do in out-of-sample crash testing?
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       How do cars do in out-of-sample crash testing?
        
       Author : surprisetalk
       Score  : 71 points
       Date   : 2024-11-17 09:38 UTC (4 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (danluu.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (danluu.com)
        
       | bryanrasmussen wrote:
       | >Checking to see if crash tests are being gamed with hyper-
       | specific optimizations isn't really feasible for someone who
       | isn't a billionaire.
       | 
       | hmm, operation "Trick Elon into Wasting His Money" has published
       | its latest trick!
        
         | Etheryte wrote:
         | > In a 2024 analysis of fatality rate per mile driven from
         | 2018-2022, the worst car manufacturers were, starting from the
         | worst, were Tesla, Kia, Buick, Dodge, and then Hyundai.
         | 
         | I don't think this is a tree Elon wants to be barking at too
         | loudly. But then again, you never know, every time I read the
         | news I can't tell whether I'm reading The Onion or not.
        
           | potato3732842 wrote:
           | >he worst car manufacturers were, starting from the worst,
           | were Tesla, Kia, Buick, Dodge, and then Hyundai.
           | 
           | Look at that list of brands though. You'd have to have to be
           | blinded by motivated reasoning to not think that who buys
           | what might have more than a little bit to do with it.
           | 
           | Edit: Just to be clear, I say this not in defense of any
           | particular brand but in offense of anyone who engages in
           | naive surface level assessment.
        
             | close04 wrote:
             | I'd be very interested in a "deaths by weight class"
             | comparison too. Size and weight are huge factors in an
             | accident.
             | 
             | I'm not at all surprised if a Kia Rio is a death trap in an
             | accident facing most likely an SUV twice the weight. I am
             | surprised to see Tesla at the top of the fatalities chart
             | though, punching a few weight categories above your average
             | Kia.
        
             | nemomarx wrote:
             | Maybe I'm missing something, what's the commonality? I
             | thought Kia had a reputation for cheap compact cars, Dodge
             | for trucks, Hyundai I hear of in the same conversation as
             | Toyota, etc. They seem like they all target different
             | markets?
             | 
             | And certainly Tesla's aren't cheap right?
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | It's not commonality, it's that even if like for like the
               | vehicles are equivalent or even safer there's selection
               | bias at play as a result of what they sell and who they
               | sell it to. To use a very broad brush:
               | 
               | People who buy Tesla sedans are basically the "german car
               | weaving with no blinker" demographics of yesteryear so if
               | someone's gonna hit a pole at 100 it'll be them.
               | 
               | Buick sells pretty safe stuff to pretty conservative
               | buyers buy they skew toward age where they'd keel over
               | from an open hand slap so surviving more than a fender
               | bender isn't likely and they're exactly the kind of
               | people who are gonna get t-boned at 60 by something they
               | just didn't see.
               | 
               | Dodge basically sells Challengers and Chargers these days
               | (Ram is separate brand for the timeline listed) and the
               | stereotype seems to generally check out.
               | 
               | Hyundai and Kia are kind of the odd ones out but they
               | sell a lot of low end and small stuff which doesn't
               | exactly attract the least risky buyer demographics and
               | the cars aren't exactly loaded with safety themselves.
               | 
               | The comparison really needs to be done on a higher
               | resolution otherwise you get stuff like Volvo and Lexus
               | looking artificially good because of course nobody dies
               | in high end SUVs and sedans driven mostly by people of
               | non-risky age and decent means and Ford and GM look good
               | because they sell god knows how many fleet vehicles that
               | only get driven responsibly on the clock and it's kind of
               | hard to kill yourself in a 3/4 ton pickup anyway.
        
               | coredog64 wrote:
               | I'm wondering if the "Kia Boys" phenomenon moves the
               | needle of fatality rates.
        
               | Interesco wrote:
               | This is what I was wondering - around me, many of these
               | cars were stolen by kids under 16 with no drivers
               | license. I know of a few cases where they crashed on the
               | highway killing 3+.
        
             | foooorsyth wrote:
             | Driver demographics play a huge factor (young men are the
             | deadliest drivers). Also, the makeup of your vehicle lineup
             | skews the numbers. Small crossovers are the deadliest
             | vehicles (low mass, prone to rollover). Tesla's lineup is
             | small (only 5 vehicles) and the Model Y dominates sales
             | numbers. That hurts their overall fatality per mile number.
             | 
             | Looking at real world results is still important. The BMW
             | F10 530i had zero worldwide fatalities over its entire
             | production. Results like that should speak more than
             | contrived sled tests.
        
           | infecto wrote:
           | Unfortunately I have a hard time following the data for that
           | quote. I wonder if he simply averaged out numbers but he also
           | does not cite sources and instead he just has a circular
           | link, the html writeup links to mastodon which links to his
           | article. On the model ranking the Honda CRV Hyrbid comes
           | ahead of a model y.
        
       | david-gpu wrote:
       | I wish car testing was less about the safety of the people inside
       | of the car and more about the safety of the people outside of it,
       | like pedestrians, cyclists and other vehicles.
       | 
       | After all, people buying a car already have a strong incentive to
       | purchase something that is safe for themselves, but how many
       | people put any thought into reducing the risk that the force upon
       | others?
       | 
       | For context, pedestrian and cycling deaths have increased for the
       | past decade in North America [0] and it is known that tall blunt
       | hoods increase fatalities [1]. Yet, nothing is being done about
       | it in NA as far as I know.
       | 
       | [0] https://www.npr.org/2023/06/26/1184034017/us-pedestrian-
       | deat...
       | 
       | [1] https://youtube.com/watch?v=YpuX-5E7xoU
        
         | grecy wrote:
         | Pedestrian safety is a very big part of European car crash
         | testing - some cars even have front / hood airbags that will
         | deploy for pedestrians.
        
         | foooorsyth wrote:
         | https://www.euroncap.com/en/car-safety/the-ratings-explained...
         | 
         | NCAP has a dedicated test battery.
         | 
         | Pedestrian figures are alarming, but I doubt vehicle mass and
         | shape are the largest factor contributing to their rise. The
         | numbers have increased since 2009. Smart phones and distracted
         | driving are a huge factor here. That combined with NA's
         | terrible pedestrian infrastructure is a terrible combination.
         | 
         | The fastest way to curtail pedestrian deaths is to build real
         | pedestrian infrastructure and get serious about anti-cell phone
         | technology for the driver's seat.
         | 
         | Edit: Oh, also several NA cities just stopped enforcing all
         | traffic laws post summer 2020. Can't ignore that in the post
         | pandemic spike.
        
           | close04 wrote:
           | > I doubt vehicle mass and shape are the largest factor
           | contributing to their rise.
           | 
           | Distracted driving might be the biggest factor but it's hard
           | to prevent a human from being distracted. It's easy to make
           | smaller cars, we used to have them.
           | 
           | The shape most definitely has a large impact (pun intended).
           | The visibility from recent SUVs and trucks is abysmal without
           | extensive assistance, like sensors and cameras. [0] Sometimes
           | those cameras and sensors are another source of distraction
           | and increase the cognitive load for what used to be "just
           | look ahead", leading to the distracted driving.
           | 
           | > examined that front visibility with a group of elementary
           | school children, ages 6 to 10, and several adults of
           | different heights in the driver's seat of four tall, square-
           | hooded vehicles: Ford F-150 and Toyota Tundra pickup trucks
           | and Cadillac Escalade and Jeep Wagoneer SUVs. With the kids
           | seated in a line stretching forward from the vehicle's front
           | bumper, it took nine to 11 of them before a 5-foot-2 driver
           | could see a child's head
           | 
           | [0] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/americas-cars-
           | trucks-ar...
        
             | infecto wrote:
             | Speaking from a US perspective. I don't believe its hard to
             | prevent a human from being distracted. The problem is these
             | days there is zero enforcement of traffic laws in most
             | parts of the US. Making cars smaller would require new laws
             | that are most certainly impossible to get made at this
             | point. Definitely would be great if cars were smaller but
             | people need to get off their darn phone.
        
             | potato3732842 wrote:
             | Citing blind spots fullsize SUVs seems misleading at best
             | when their proliferation peaked in the mid 00s and have
             | been waning since while small SUVs have become dominant.
             | 
             | Straight ahead drive overs of unseen pedestrians are
             | vanishingly rare compared to people cornering into
             | pedestrians that are hidden behind pillars. From there the
             | lethality of the vehicle takes over.
             | 
             | The largest of SUVs that you complain about are not
             | increasing in frequency. What is happening is that sedans
             | re being traded in for taller SUVs of comparable footprint
             | and that's where the changes in statistics are coming from.
        
               | close04 wrote:
               | > Citing blind spots fullsize SUVs seems misleading at
               | best when they peaked in the 00s and have been waning
               | 
               | I'm not sure what's misleading, it's based on data which
               | contradicts your opinion. Every link I can find on this
               | points in the same direction.
               | 
               | As as summary: cars have increase continuously over the
               | past decades and so have their blind spots, between 2012
               | and 2021 the total number of large cars has increased by
               | 50% and each segment of large cars has seen 25-100%
               | increase, the design can make even smaller cars more
               | deadly, and the number of pedestrian deaths increased by
               | 80% since 2009. [0][1]
               | 
               | > America's cars and trucks are getting bigger, and so
               | are their front blind zones [0] [look for "Getting
               | Bigger"]
               | 
               | > Over the past 30 years, the average U.S. passenger
               | vehicle has gotten about 4 inches wider, 10 inches
               | longer, 8 inches taller and 1,000 pounds heavier [1]
               | 
               | > a blunt profile makes medium-height vehicles deadly too
               | [1]
               | 
               | > Pedestrian crash deaths have risen 80 percent since
               | hitting their low in 2009 [1]
               | 
               | > many safety advocates have also drawn a connection to
               | the growing portion of the U.S. vehicle fleet made up of
               | pickups and SUVs [1]
               | 
               | You call it misleading, I call it supported by data.
               | 
               | [0] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/americas-cars-
               | trucks-ar...
               | 
               | [1] https://www.iihs.org/news/detail/vehicles-with-
               | higher-more-v...
        
               | hibikir wrote:
               | The small SUVs tend to have smaller side blind spots, but
               | for killing pedestrians, the important one is the front
               | blind spot, and that is about hood height, which just
               | keeps going up because it looks "manlier"
               | 
               | Deaths are also about what happens when there is contact:
               | High hoods lead to the unfortunate pedestrian hitting
               | their head against the pavement, followed by the car
               | trying to go over it with all its weight. Do the same
               | with the very heavy, but low Tesla Model 3, and the
               | pedestrian goes over the car, which happens to be much
               | safer. The contact with the sedan is at around knee size,
               | many a modern American truck will hit your ribcage, which
               | is a bit more threatening.
               | 
               | A car can be tall and designed to be relatively safe on
               | impact, but it'd look like a minivan. We all know that
               | those kept losing in the marketplace because they didn't
               | look aggressive enough.
               | 
               | So the switch from sedans to small SUVs was a disaster.
        
             | jcranmer wrote:
             | > Distracted driving might be the biggest factor but it's
             | hard to prevent a human from being distracted.
             | 
             | To prevent it entirely, perhaps. But there's quite a few
             | things we could do to reduce the incidence of distracted
             | driving:
             | 
             | * More thoroughly educate drivers on just how _bad_ they
             | are at distracted driving. I know that when I ran the red
             | light while talking on the phone, I forswore any future use
             | of the phone while driving, because I clearly couldn 't be
             | trusted to drive safely while doing so.
             | 
             | * Rip out the touchscreens of modern cars, and stop
             | providing stuff in ways that requires distracted driving to
             | operate.
             | 
             | * Laws against distracted driving can be more rigorously
             | enforced by the police.
             | 
             | * Penalties could also be harsher. Drunk driving? You can
             | lose your license. Distracted driving? Here's a $500 fine.
             | Very light penalty for the crime that kills more people.
        
             | nogridbag wrote:
             | I'm sure front visibility plays some role, but just as a
             | counter example, squirrels are much smaller and can dart in
             | front of my vehicle faster than any child, yet I have no
             | problem spotting them while driving a large SUV (Kia
             | Telluride).
             | 
             | Places like school parking lots are probably where front
             | and rear visibility are of upmost importance, and that's
             | where I think all of the sensors and cameras are critical
             | and should be mandatory. For example, while backing up out
             | of a parking space a rear sensor can detect cross traffic
             | (people or cars) way before you can see it regardless of
             | the vehicle size. My old Mazda Miata would probably fair
             | far worse than my Telluride as rear visibility was poor and
             | the car was so small and low to the ground it was hard to
             | see over other cars.
        
               | david-gpu wrote:
               | _> I have no problem spotting them while driving a large
               | SUV_
               | 
               | How do you know? You can't know what you didn't see, and
               | when you run over a squirrel there's no mother squirrel
               | screaming her lungs out to stop your car.
        
               | buran77 wrote:
               | > I have no problem spotting them while driving a large
               | SUV
               | 
               | That's the bias. It could very well mean "no problem
               | spotting the ones I had no problems spotting". By
               | definition you can't know how many you never spotted and
               | maybe even ended up under your wheels.
               | 
               | Most drivers only kill a pedestrian once in their life,
               | and relatively few actually are that unfortunate, so it's
               | not something you can easily calibrate for from personal
               | experience (with any luck you never will). They all saw
               | and avoided all the pedestrians that jumped in front of
               | them until they didn't.
               | 
               | Many of these accidents happen at low speed when
               | pedestrians thinking they have time meet a driver with a
               | giant blindspot right in front of them and doesn't even
               | try to brake.
               | 
               | Search for "frontover" pictures and you'll realize how
               | ridiculously large that blindspot is.
        
           | 15155 wrote:
           | > get serious about anti-cell phone technology for the
           | driver's seat.
           | 
           | How does this work?
        
             | foooorsyth wrote:
             | It remains to be defined, but some of the technology is
             | already there. We have driver monitoring systems. We know
             | which device is paired to the infotainment system. That
             | device could be physically sequestered from driver access
             | while the vehicle is in gear (via NFC, for example).
             | 
             | I don't want my car to be an arm of the nanny state. I
             | don't want insurance companies spying on my drives or
             | owning my driver monitoring data. But, there could be a
             | simple "place the connected device on this pad and strap it
             | in while you drive" type system, that actually attempts to
             | enforce the policy. Does it get hard once multiple
             | people/devices get in the car? Sure. Could individual
             | drivers just bring a second device along to defeat it? Yes.
             | But for the average solo driver that doesn't pre mediate
             | their own misbehavior, it could reduce distraction without
             | trampling on privacy or significantly added nuisance.
        
               | 15155 wrote:
               | > But, there could be a simple "place the connected
               | device on this pad and strap it in while you drive" type
               | system
               | 
               | Why do I have to comply? Is my phone not allowed to be
               | used while in motion or something? Or is this required
               | just to access the infotainment system (hello, car-only
               | phone!)?
               | 
               | If you're putting some kind of radio in my vehicle that
               | tells my (and every passenger's phone) to shut off, I'm
               | going to abuse this signal and broadcast it far more
               | widely than any car would. And then just remove, disable,
               | or block the radio.
               | 
               | > Does it get hard once multiple people/devices get in
               | the car?
               | 
               | It doesn't just become difficult, it becomes logically
               | impossible. Current, common radio technology isn't good
               | enough to isolate the driver's seat.
               | 
               | ---
               | 
               | Also: good luck getting any technical chain of trust to
               | work and stay safe/secret between numerous phone and
               | automobile manufacturers. Nobody has been able to achieve
               | this with multi-manufacturer DRM so far - DVD, Bluray,
               | etc. Apple is the exception with regards to key material
               | security: auto manufacturers stand no chance, Xiaomi
               | doesn't care, and my Google Pixel is rooted.
               | 
               | Before phones there were DVD playing head units in cars:
               | parking and GPS bypasses have existed for these for at
               | least 20 years.
        
               | foooorsyth wrote:
               | >common radio technology isn't good enough to isolate the
               | driver's seat
               | 
               | Look man, you don't know what you're talking about. UWB
               | can easily position a device in a vehicle. BT direction
               | finding is also quite promising.
               | 
               | But I'm not suggesting any advanced locating, let alone a
               | jammer (lol). I'm literally just suggesting an NFC pad
               | with a phone "seat belt" for the primary device connected
               | to the infotainment. Car makes a beeping noise until you
               | rest the phone in the safe spot. That's it. Nothing any
               | more extreme than existing seat belt and speed limit
               | warnings (which save lives despite their nuisance).
               | 
               | t. Actual automotive engineer for a major OEM that works
               | on infotainment & mobile software, Bluetooth, UWB, &
               | future RF
        
               | 15155 wrote:
               | > for the primary device connected to the infotainment
               | 
               | Why would I pair it?
        
               | foooorsyth wrote:
               | Because on solo drives, your user experience would be
               | severely diminished. People like CarPlay, Android Auto,
               | and BT BR/EDR profiles. Want to guess the percentage of
               | owners that NEVER pair a primary device in modern cars?
               | It's almost zero.
               | 
               | Do you want a pat on the back for defeating the imagined
               | safety mechanism? You can also buy seat belt plugs to
               | turn the seat belt chime off. Very few people end up
               | doing this in practice (because it's stupid).
               | 
               | What is your specific aversion to your car expecting you
               | to separate control of your phone while driving alone?
               | Assume you have HFP, A2DP, and/or CarPlay/Android Auto
               | with voice control. Why do you need physical control of
               | your phone while your car is in gear/moving? You don't.
        
               | fragmede wrote:
               | to get it to use the car stereo (and screen) instead of
               | the shitty little ones on your phone.
        
             | avidiax wrote:
             | Easy, don't focus on the cell phone, focus on the driver's
             | focus.
             | 
             | Mandate driver attention monitoring, and require that
             | prolonged inattention (i.e. N seconds continuous, or N
             | seconds of the past 3 minutes) results in escalating
             | consequences, e.g. a warning chime, followed by activation
             | of the hazard lights, followed by cutting the throttle and
             | engaging lane keeping assist if available, and with several
             | minutes continuous inattention, automatically call
             | emergency services if possible.
             | 
             | Ideally, phone manufacturers and car makers could work
             | together so that the driver inattention chime automatically
             | locks the phone and tells the driver to pay attention (or
             | tells the passenger to tell the driver to pay attention).
        
               | 15155 wrote:
               | Hello, Big Brother.
               | 
               | Why not ban all old phones and cars too, to really ensure
               | enforcement of this scheme?
        
               | avidiax wrote:
               | Hardly big brother to say that you should be required to
               | pay attention when driving, and this all stays on-vehicle
               | until you've been gone so long that it must be a medical
               | emergency.
        
             | ceejayoz wrote:
             | My car won't let me lock the keys in the trunk; it'll pop
             | back open. It seems to be quite precise - leaving them on
             | _top_ of the trunk doesn 't trigger it, nor does having
             | them in the back seat (right next to it).
             | 
             | (Very confusing the first time, when you don't realize
             | that's what the issue is.)
             | 
             | I'd imagine something similar is at least _possible_.
        
               | 15155 wrote:
               | The issue is that this technology isn't that specific.
               | Your passengers will not be able to use their devices.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | I'm trying to _address_ that aspect by noting the fairly
               | high specificity of the  "you're locking your keys in the
               | trunk" sensors.
               | 
               | If you've ever used an Apple AirTag, they're even better
               | for this; my phone could easily tell me which seat an
               | AirTag is sitting in.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Why not? My 2012 minivan has wireless headphones that
               | don't work in the front two seats (annoying when you are
               | in the navigator seat trying to get them setup for a
               | young kid in the back who can't do it themself). I get it
               | is a tricky problem, but it is one we can solve.
        
         | avalys wrote:
         | [0] is kind of a useless article because it doesn't provide a
         | graph and it doesn't provide per-capita statistics.
         | 
         | If the US population has doubled since 1980, then it wouldn't
         | be surprising that some population-level statistic (total
         | pedestrian deaths) is at an all-time high! And it could still
         | be at an all-time high while reflecting a substantial increase
         | in safety - if the population doubled (increased 100%) but
         | deaths only rose 25%, for instance.
         | 
         | Similarly, I anecdotally observe that cycling is more popular
         | than it was 20 years ago. So it would not be surprising (to me)
         | to observe that cycling deaths are higher as well.
         | 
         | But without quantifying any of these factors, the significance
         | of these statistics is difficult to evaluate.
        
           | david-gpu wrote:
           | _> If the US population has doubled since 1980, then it
           | wouldn 't be surprising that some population-level statistic
           | (total pedestrian deaths) is at an all-time high!_
           | 
           | Indeed, it is per capita deaths that have increased since
           | 2013 or so [0].
           | 
           | Why speculate when you can Google?
           | 
           | [0] https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-
           | statistics/detail/pedes...
        
             | telgareith wrote:
             | Because its not the readers job to support a writers
             | position.
        
               | david-gpu wrote:
               | Criticizing that the article I posted doesn't contain
               | rates is understandable.
               | 
               | Nevertheless, in the same amount of time that it took
               | them to write a shallow dismissal they could have googled
               | the raw data and shared a link. They didn't provide any
               | sources whatsoever for their own claims.
        
               | webstrand wrote:
               | Jumping down the rabbit hole of "find a statistic X via
               | google" takes a lot of motivation, and that's also a
               | limited resource.
               | 
               | Just because that information was easy to find this time,
               | doesn't mean it is every time. Often when I go looking
               | for statistics on various population level things, I have
               | to do a lot of work to find and massage it into the form
               | I was looking for.
        
               | kriops wrote:
               | What part of their claim specifically requires (or would
               | even benefit from) a source?
               | 
               | As far as I am concerned you are conceding the argument
               | by doubling down here. And in spite of potentially being
               | right.
        
               | itishappy wrote:
               | For starters, the question they posed and GP posted a
               | source for benefits from having a concrete answer.
        
               | avalys wrote:
               | For what it's worth - my comment was more about my
               | frustration over what a useless article it was and how
               | low our journalistic standards and expectations are that
               | no one involved in writing or editing it bothered to ask
               | the very obvious questions I posed - rather than about
               | the actual topic of pedestrian deaths and crash testing.
        
         | illwrks wrote:
         | Pedestrian safety is already accounted for in a cars exterior
         | design (American cars and 'trucks' being the exception). Most
         | of pedestrian safety is about pedestrian awareness.
         | 
         | I can only speak for myself but when I'm driving, cycling or
         | walking I'm always on the alert for idiots, there are plenty
         | around. In almost all contexts it is people distracted by music
         | and phones and are not paying attention to their surroundings.
         | 
         | And I think cyclists who don't already have a driving license
         | should have to do a basic provisional theory test. It's for
         | their own safety to understand the rules of the road.
        
           | tom_vidal wrote:
           | The "rules of the road" argument here assumes that giving up
           | huge amounts of public space for car infrastructure is
           | inevitable and right, and that it's the fault of people
           | walking or riding bikes if they get injured or killed since
           | the system is not built for them.
           | 
           | Roads in the US are designed almost entirely around the speed
           | and convenience of cars, and don't account for the
           | externalities they impose on everyone else. As cars get
           | larger and more dangerous, and as drivers get more careless,
           | the cost borne by society is only going up. Asking people
           | walking and riding bikes to be even more extra careful not to
           | get killed is not the right solution. Changing the design of
           | our roads and public spaces to make them safer for everyone
           | is.
        
             | illwrks wrote:
             | Sorry, I'm speaking from a European perspective
             | (UK/London).
             | 
             | When driving I've had idiots on e-scooters dressed in black
             | with no lights zooming towards me on a one way street at
             | night, I've had people walk out in front of me when
             | distracted by their phones. When cycling I've often seen
             | other casual cyclists with headphones on, in their own
             | dreamland, no helmet either, and I've seen the same when
             | walking about. People are too careless and distracted
             | thinking others are going to look out for them, everyone
             | needs to pay more attention.
        
           | AcerbicZero wrote:
           | A simple "what color is this traffic light?" test would go a
           | long way towards saving cyclist lives thats for sure, but
           | when you're that exposed to 4,000lbs vehicles moving at ~50+
           | MPH operated by people who took at best, 8 hours of
           | instruction from their health class teacher, well, a lot of
           | the issues you run into are not going to be your fault.
        
           | angst_ridden wrote:
           | I just walked a mile in Los Angeles for lunch.
           | 
           | I had the following near misses where I would have died or
           | been severely injured if I hadn't been alert: a Tesla coming
           | out of an alley (driver was on his phone, never saw me), old
           | diesel Mercedes running a stop sign (couldn't see the
           | driver), a Ford F150 in a parking lot (guy was fixated on a
           | spot that just opened up).
           | 
           | This does not include the woman in the Lexus who
           | intentionally crawled up on me because I had the temerity to
           | be in the crosswalk when _she_ wanted to _be_ someplace.
        
         | r_hanz wrote:
         | How much of that increase can also be attributed to distracted
         | driving (ie driving under the influence of mobile phones)?
        
           | AcerbicZero wrote:
           | As a motorcycle commuter, who sits about 3 feet higher than
           | most sedans in my area and can see into all the cars around
           | me as I drive, I can confirm that at least half of the ones I
           | see every morning on the road have the driver either staring
           | at their lap using their phone, or rolling giant vape clouds
           | out their window, and are probably high. Often, I see someone
           | doing both.
           | 
           | We need to nurture a culture of competency on the roads and
           | excellence in automobile operations. My personal fav idea to
           | help with that is build more race tracks :)
        
             | Velofellow wrote:
             | Another moto / cycle rider here. Recent phenomenon that
             | makes me weep for road going competency: Phone or tablet on
             | a suction cup mount playing YouTube, Netflix, whatever.
             | Preferably at night with the screen 4" from your face to
             | really make visual acuity dicey.
             | 
             | I thought this was a one-off, but I see probably 5-10 of
             | these idiots a week.
        
         | Scoundreller wrote:
         | The joke in flyover provinces/states, is it's difficult to
         | cause an accident, because it's flat and there are few trees,
         | people, boulders or buildings to crash into.
         | 
         | If you fall asleep while driving, you'll just ruin some
         | corn/wheat crops until you get stuck in a rut or get yourself
         | back on the road.
         | 
         | Tried to google for the longest distance anyone drove asleep at
         | the wheel but only getting results about semi-conscious
         | sleepdriving, but I bet it's quite a distance.
        
         | joshlemer wrote:
         | I would also like to understand why the most basic regulations
         | aren't in place on cars to limit their maximum speed, and
         | maximum acceleration and/or power?
         | 
         | It seems like the general public all agrees that it would be
         | insane to allow arbitrarily powerful e-bikes, and so they are
         | limited to (depending on your jurisdiction) 500 watts and
         | 32km/h. This, despite that there are nearly 0 deaths from
         | e-bikes per year. Cars and motorcycles on the other hand, are
         | orders of magnitude more dangerous and we have no restrictions
         | whatsoever. There are street-legal cars with 1000 horsepower
         | and top speeds of over 400km/h.
        
           | cenamus wrote:
           | In most jurisdictions they're limited to that power because
           | they're ebikes. Above that you just have an electric
           | motorcycle, which mandates different brakes and so on, but
           | you can still do that. Just need a another license, more
           | taxes, etc.
        
             | BytesAndGears wrote:
             | Couldn't you also require a higher tier license for large
             | and dangerous cars, just like motorcycles require extra
             | privileges?
             | 
             | Allow anyone to own a sedan or compact SUV with up to
             | 200hp. If you want to own something larger, you need an
             | "oversized vehicle" endorsement. And if you want to own
             | something more powerful, you need a power-level
             | endorsement. And maybe you need to pay extra to have those
             | endorsements, and they can be taken away if you are
             | reckless.
             | 
             | It could be a grandfathering system too, so not to disrupt
             | the entire market. Automatically grant partial endorsements
             | to people who already have those vehicles when the law goes
             | into effect, but require testing within 5 years or when
             | registering any new vehicle that meets those criteria.
             | 
             | But cars and trucks are incredibly dangerous and it's
             | ridiculous society has basically zero restrictions. (I own
             | a "small" truck and would be happy to have it restricted if
             | it means the roads start to become safer for cycling and
             | walking)
        
               | HeyLaughingBoy wrote:
               | What evidence do you have that vehicles over a certain
               | size and power are inherently more dangerous? And what
               | about the problem would an endorsement solve?
        
               | david-gpu wrote:
               | _> What evidence do you have that vehicles over a certain
               | size and power are inherently more dangerous?_
               | 
               | Basic physics and historical collision data collected
               | over decades.
               | 
               | But don't take my word for it! Look up your local
               | official collision data -- how many pedestrians have
               | killed people inside a four-wheel vehicle? What about the
               | other way around? Now repeat for cyclists,
               | mopeds/motorcycles, and other four-wheeled vehicles.
               | 
               | The heavier vehicle kills the lighter vehicle, primarily
               | because of momentum.
        
               | MisterTea wrote:
               | > What evidence do you have that vehicles over a certain
               | size and power are inherently more dangerous?
               | 
               | It's not the vehicle but the entitled douche bag who
               | thinks they own the road while wildly speeding around,
               | cutting people off and weaving around traffic like a
               | drunkard. No one needs that power save for insecure men.
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | Sounds like the driver is the problem. A rampaging driver
               | can do pretty much the same damage regardless of the
               | exact car. Police should focus on driver behaviour with
               | stricter enforcement of "road manners" type rules. Broken
               | window theory.
        
               | MisterTea wrote:
               | Of course the driver is the problem but you can't fix
               | stupid with police. Also realize that in the USA there
               | has been a reduction in the amount of policing done on
               | the roads for various reasons so don't expect much from
               | the cops.
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | With less policing the problems will just get worse. The
               | only alternative is some kind of intrusive digital
               | nannying which is what we're starting to see.
        
               | singleshot_ wrote:
               | My evidence is that you need a special endorsement
               | already to drive things that are more powerful or complex
               | than a car (e.g., taxi, semi truck, ferry, formula one
               | car). This seems obvious.
        
               | david-gpu wrote:
               | _> My evidence is that you need a special endorsement
               | already to drive things that are more powerful or complex
               | than a car_
               | 
               | In Canada, a standard car license allows driving vehicles
               | up to 11,000 kg (24,250 lbs) [0], including pickup trucks
               | and SUVs that are larger than a WWII Sherman tank [1],
               | such as the Ford F-350 or the Cadillac Escalade [2].
               | 
               | Thus, we are allowing people to drive things that are far
               | more powerful than a car without special licensing
               | requirements -- and without a speed governor.
               | 
               | So it is already pretty lax in terms of licensing
               | requirements for vehicles that kill and maim our
               | neighbors every year. We should be even stricter than we
               | are.
               | 
               | [0] https://drivetest.ca/licences/licences-overview/
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M4_Sherman
               | 
               | [2] https://www.carsized.com/en/cars/compare/cadillac-
               | escalade-2...
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | The actual data shows that some of the largest and most
               | powerful vehicle models have quite low insurance claims
               | for injuries to others.
               | 
               | https://www.iihs.org/topics/auto-insurance/insurance-
               | losses-...
        
               | david-gpu wrote:
               | Can you provide some examples?
               | 
               | Because when I compare between classes, there is a clear
               | trend in the data you provided where large four-door cars
               | have higher rates of bodily injury than midsize cars, and
               | it goes down again for small and mini.
               | 
               | And it makes sense: in a collision, the heavier vehicle
               | crushes the lighter one.
               | 
               | Am I misreading the data?
        
               | samatman wrote:
               | Did you look at the data for pickups?
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | This really just looks like a proxy for social class.
               | 
               | Edit: though interestingly there's an uptick when you get
               | to the ultra-ostentatious vehicles like Bentley and
               | Lamborghini.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | We already have higher tier licenses for large vehicles.
               | However they are set such that only heavy duty trucks
               | qualify - dump trucks, semis, and other such things. That
               | is the types of things you drive as part of a job, as
               | opposed to personal vehicles.
        
           | karlgkk wrote:
           | > I would also like to understand why the most basic
           | regulations aren't in place on cars to limit their maximum
           | speed, and maximum acceleration and/or power?
           | 
           | If you bring this up, the amount of visceral reactions, you
           | get from people who demand that you stop talking about the
           | subject is incredible.
           | 
           | They come up with all sorts of crazy hypotheticals (what if I
           | need to rush to the hospital at 105 miles an hour).
        
             | DiggyJohnson wrote:
             | Point taken. But I do think it's wrong to put no value on
             | the reason behind the popularity of that visceral reaction.
             | Unless safety and efficiency are the only things we are
             | optimizing for.
             | 
             | Being able to drive what you want, where you want, when you
             | want, and how you want, within reason, is one of the
             | emergent freedoms ever granted by the progress of
             | civilization.
        
               | joshlemer wrote:
               | I think it's a bit hyperbolic to characterize limiting
               | car speeds to, say, 150 or 170 km/h, as a serious
               | curtailment of our civilization's fundamental freedoms.
        
               | simondotau wrote:
               | How many people are dying because cars are exceeding 150
               | km/h?
        
               | joshlemer wrote:
               | I don't know, but many people are caught driving in
               | excess of 200km/h where I live in BC, when the maximum
               | speed limit anywhere is 110km/h. There's literally never
               | ever one single reason to drive over 150km/h, so any case
               | of anyone ever doing it is already one too many. Even if
               | there is just one death, that's too many, according to
               | me. How many would it take to convince you?
        
               | david-gpu wrote:
               | Why would that matter?
               | 
               | How many people are exceeding posted speed limits in
               | highly populated areas? That is what increases collisions
               | with pedestrians and cyclists, and for that reason I
               | would love to see speed governors installed in all motor
               | vehicles, and not only e-bikes, which ironically are the
               | ones that are the least likely to cause serious injury to
               | others.
        
               | david-gpu wrote:
               | _> But I do think it's wrong to put no value on the
               | reason behind the popularity of that visceral reaction._
               | 
               |  _Not being killed_ is also a very popular visceral
               | reason for pedestrians and cyclists to want cars to slow
               | down in our cities, and for motor vehicle regulations to
               | address the yearly carnage they cause every year.
               | 
               | What value should we give to their desire of _not being
               | killed_ , and how should it be weighted against drivers'
               | desire to _drive what they want, where they want, when
               | they want, and how they want_?
               | 
               | Just a fun experiment: try replacing _" driving a car"_
               | with _" stabbing random people on the street"_ or any
               | other activity that involves people killing around three
               | people per 100,000 population every year in your country.
               | It's interesting how our perception changes when we get
               | out of the context of motonormativity.
        
               | singleshot_ wrote:
               | It's a terrible metaphor but if everyone had to stab
               | someone in the morning and the evening in order for the
               | economy to even begin to function, we would pretty soon
               | get over it. Upton Sinclair and all that.
        
               | immibis wrote:
               | What if the economy was built that way by stabbing
               | industry lobbyists?
        
               | actionablefiber wrote:
               | We had a perfectly functioning economy prior to car
               | domination and all the alternatives have progressed by
               | incredible leaps and bounds in the time since as well.
        
               | joshlemer wrote:
               | This analogy fails because there's nothing about our
               | economy that specifically demands that people drive cars
               | that can drive over 150km/h. They would be able to
               | commute exactly the same as they do today, if their cars
               | had speed governors.
        
               | actionablefiber wrote:
               | I've been to two funerals in as many years for personal
               | friends who died when drivers killed them with their
               | cars. I'll make sure to throw in a good word for
               | "emergent freedoms" and "the progress of civilization" at
               | the next funeral I end up at.
        
               | maxwellg wrote:
               | Does any country or government enshrine "Right to Drive"
               | in their constitution?
        
           | kart23 wrote:
           | Is there any evidence showing that cars with 1000 horsepower
           | and top speeds of over 400km/h have higher fatality rates
           | than lower powered cars?
        
         | typewithrhythm wrote:
         | Pedestrian safety, because it's a benefit to society and not
         | the specific owner of the car, should be handled by regulations
         | and government tests.
         | 
         | I don't want the independent kinds of safety rating, like
         | what's included in the article to include anything other than
         | what benefits the purchaser of the car.
         | 
         | I am in an adjacent industry where it's getting increasingly
         | common to hear that these ratings are becoming less
         | trustworthy, and part of it is they include points for gadgets
         | and things seen as irrelevant to the end user.
        
           | wtallis wrote:
           | > I don't want the independent kinds of safety rating, like
           | what's included in the article to include anything other than
           | what benefits the purchaser of the car.
           | 
           |  _You_ may not want independent safety ratings to take
           | pedestrians into account, but your insurance company may have
           | other ideas, since pedestrian safety matters to their bottom
           | line. Whose interests do you think matter more to an entity
           | like IIHS?
        
       | taeric wrote:
       | Spending a little time in Japan, it is hard not to see the
       | general difference in size of vehicle compared to what I'm used
       | to seeing in the US. I'm incredibly curious to know if other
       | nations have similarly small cars compared to the states?
       | 
       | I'm also very curious on other impacts the vehicle sizes have on
       | things. Easy to think it contributes to so many cyclist with
       | basically no helmets. Curious if data backs that.
        
         | KineticLensman wrote:
         | (Brit here) Europe in general has smaller cars than the US -
         | here's an Economist article [0] that claims ours are 20%
         | smaller. I personally find it interesting that to many Brits,
         | 'truck' means something like a semi, not a F-150.
         | 
         | One factor here in the UK is that many of our cities and towns
         | predate cars (sometimes by centuries) and consequently the
         | roads and streets are much smaller. Such that giant cars are a
         | real nuisance for both the driver and everyone else. But there
         | is a definite trend toward larger vehicles, as can be seen by
         | how difficult it is to get them into older parking
         | infrastructure.
         | 
         | [0] https://archive.vn/wusnE
        
           | arethuza wrote:
           | It's not just cities and towns, a lot of rural areas
           | (particularly in Scotland) have single track roads with
           | passing spaces i.e. a single lane, not a single lane in both
           | directions.
        
         | YokoZar wrote:
         | Japan has vehicle weight taxes, which directly incentivizes
         | what you observed there.
        
         | steveBK123 wrote:
         | These comparisons are always interesting because there are
         | malevolent assumptions one can make about US car size, but
         | there are also Occam's razor convenience aspects / differences
         | in demographics.
         | 
         | Compare to Europe and Japan, US has - MUCH lower energy costs,
         | larger family sizes, much further travel distances, and smaller
         | % of population in pre-modern urban areas with pre-automobile
         | sized roads.
         | 
         | Add to that a less top-down centralized government in the US
         | and the resulting lack of mass transit, particularly inter-
         | city, and you end up with more people, driving bigger cars,
         | further.
        
           | happosai wrote:
           | Yet most of American traffic is single-occupant commuting.
           | There is no reason why they need big-ass SUV or truck for
           | that. Burn the planet while making fun on of Prius drivers.
        
             | steveBK123 wrote:
             | I drive an EV, I don't make fun of Prius drivers.
             | 
             | Unfortunately due to duration / cost of ownership, families
             | over-purchase in terms of vehicle capacity.
             | 
             | Yes, dad maybe does most of his driving to work alone in
             | the car. But on weekends he needs to be able to lug the
             | kids around in their giant baby seats, strollers, etc.
             | 
             | So most parents I know end up owning 2 vehicles of
             | sufficient size for their overall needs.
             | 
             | I know some families that have an extra car for commuting
             | on top of the 2 family sized cars but this itself is
             | something of a luxury.
        
               | vel0city wrote:
               | > But on weekends he needs to be able to lug the kids
               | around in their giant baby seats, strollers, etc.
               | 
               | Sure, but Dad doesn't need 3,000lbs of payload capacity
               | and a 6ft+ bed and wheel spacers and an extra lift kit to
               | carry a stroller.
               | 
               | I've got two kids and a two-child stroller. There's more
               | than enough space in something the size of a Mach E or a
               | Model 3/Y to have multiple kids in car seats and all
               | their stuff.
               | 
               | In the end pretty much all of that could have fit in my
               | old Accord as well.
        
               | steveBK123 wrote:
               | Kind of a straw man.. yes plenty of people have cars that
               | are too big.
               | 
               | But a TON of people have vehicles in the MachE/ModelY
               | crossover footprint. Look at how every brand has 3 cars
               | that size and they all look the same.
               | 
               | All of these, including your old accord are bigger than a
               | Prius.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Dad doesn't need that every time, but he has some other
               | time when he needs it. A truck can do just about anything
               | you might want of a car, while a car cannot do everything
               | a truck can. Cars are expensive, and you pay for them
               | even if don't use them - car payment, taxes, insurance
               | are all prices you pay even if the car isn't moved. If
               | you have a car for each need the cost goes up fast. If
               | the car isn't used much your maintenance costs are more
               | than expected again because things like sun and ozone
               | wear parts out not just use.
               | 
               | People tell me to just rent a truck when you need one.
               | However that is hard and expensive. Most places won't
               | rent you a truck, they will rent you a truck shaped
               | vehicle with restrictions meaning you can't use it like a
               | truck. When you find an exception the costs it very high
               | and they charge per mile rates - it doesn't take many
               | uses to be worth the extra costs of having a truck that
               | does everything instead even before you account for the
               | hassle of going to get the rental truck.
               | 
               | Of course small cars can do more than most people give
               | them credit for but they are still compromise and there
               | are a lot of things that they can't do.
        
             | potato3732842 wrote:
             | >Burn the planet while making fun on of Prius drivers
             | 
             | Not defending status symbol trucks but he rear seats of
             | compact cars aren't known for getting a lot of ass.
        
             | closeparen wrote:
             | It's rational to choose your vehicle based on worst-case
             | rather than average-case needs. Buying, insuring, and
             | garaging multiple vehicles for multiple purposes is
             | ludicrously expensive. Renting only a little less so.
        
           | codexb wrote:
           | A large reason for the continued growth in size of US cars is
           | EPA gas mileage requirements. Vehicles with larger footprints
           | have less restrictive MPG requirements, and so manufacturers
           | target larger footprints while trying to reduce weight. MPG
           | stays roughly the same year after year, but cars get
           | consistently larger.
        
       | cmiller1 wrote:
       | I'm surprised the "Actual vehicle tested may be different"
       | section didn't mention the alleged fraud Ford engaged in with the
       | 2015 F150 where they welded in extra crash safety bars only on
       | specific configurations out of the factory... that just happened
       | to be the exact configurations that were being sent to the IIHS
       | for crash testing.
        
         | potato3732842 wrote:
         | Did they add extra bars for the purpose of gaming the tests or
         | did they add extra bars and then whoever chose what to send for
         | the tests picked the obvious best choice?
        
           | cmiller1 wrote:
           | They knew which configuration would be sent for the tests
           | because IIHS required it be the most "commonly sold" config,
           | so they picked a specific supercrew model that made up about
           | 70% of their sales to bump up the safety on.
        
             | ndileas wrote:
             | That's not ideal, but.... If you want more safety, you
             | should want ford to do stuff like this. From the way it was
             | phrased, I was imagining they added extra bars only to the
             | actual cars sent for testing. This is them following the
             | incentives and making their customers safer as a result; a
             | win for safety testing.
             | 
             | Obviously it would be better if they had a deep commitment
             | to safety and made every variation of every model maximally
             | safe. But I'll take it. No such thing as absolute safety,
             | so moves in a better direction are good.
        
       | PaulHoule wrote:
       | I can offer two takes on the IIHS:
       | 
       | (1) A remarkable example of a private agency that has pushed
       | safety standards beyond what the government would do own its own,
       | and
       | 
       | (2) An organization that has persuaded Americans to buy larger
       | vehicles than they would have otherwise with all the associated
       | costs (e.g. the "affordable car" crisis) and risks (to
       | pedestrians.)
       | 
       | The IIHS is an organization of insurers so they are particularly
       | concerned about quantifiable monetary costs. And when it comes to
       | that much more of the benefit of larger vehicles is in avoided
       | minor injuries such as broken bones which are more common than
       | death and life changing injuries. The public focuses on the
       | latter and the psychology is such that some people will spend
       | another $50k on some German vehicle and spend the rest of their
       | days at the dealer getting it fixed or subject their children to
       | the trauma of riding in a minivan. (To generation X the minivan
       | is like the toxic PFAS GenX)
       | 
       | IIHS claims that compatibility has improved between large and
       | small vehicles but that large vehicles are still a menace to
       | other road users
       | 
       | https://www.iihs.org/topics/vehicle-size-and-weight
        
       | xpe wrote:
       | From the "Bonus: reputation" section:
       | 
       | > As we've seen over the past few years, loudly proclaiming
       | something, regardless of whether or not it's true, even when
       | there's incontrovertible evidence that it's untrue, seems to not
       | only work, that kind of bombastic rhetoric appears to attract
       | superfans who will aggressively defend the brand.
       | 
       | What does by Dann Luu mean by "loudly proclaiming something,
       | regardless of truth, [seems to work]"? Let's try to make the
       | claim more precise and testable.
       | 
       | Since I'm interested in the broader claim, let me "carve out"
       | (put aside) Dan's specific point about attracting superfans,
       | which I find persuasive. With that said, here are some attempts
       | to reframe the broad claim:
       | 
       | Reframing #1: "Some people are persuaded of false things when a
       | company loudly proclaims them." Yes, this seems obvious. But it
       | isn't particularly useful in guiding action. The claim doesn't
       | say anything quantitative.
       | 
       | Reframing #2: "On net, the accuracy of a population's belief goes
       | down when a company loudly proclaims a false belief." Maybe,
       | maybe not. I would expect it largely depends on what happens
       | next; i.e. whether there is some kind of response. Here are two
       | kinds of reactions that favor not lying. First, getting caught in
       | a lie can damage brand reputation. Second, lying calls more
       | attention to an issue which would have otherwise drifted out of
       | public awareness as the news cycle churns. These depend on how
       | much credibility people assign to the organization and their
       | claims.
       | 
       | Reframing #3: "On net, it is in an organization's self-interest
       | to loudly proclaim a falsehood about its quality." Maybe. It
       | depends on many factors. This is the most interesting public
       | policy question! If such a tactic _works_ (see reframing #2
       | above), it is clearly a negative externality (a downstream effect
       | than an actor does not feel directly).
       | 
       | How does wise public policy address externalities? One classic
       | way is to _internalize_ the cost -- by making the actor feel the
       | pain themself. In #3 above, one way to internalize the
       | externality would be to impose some penalty or cost for lying.
       | How to do this in a targeted, effective, non-delayed, and legal
       | way is non-obvious to me.
       | 
       | By _non-delayed_ I mean temporally-immediate consequences provide
       | better signal to correct a decision. This isn 't just human
       | nature; it is fundamental to the _credit-assignment problem_ in
       | reinforcement learning.
       | 
       | The problem of delayed feedback goes deeper than just credit-
       | assignment; it has to do with fairness too. Often, the decision-
       | maker isn't a monolith: the leadership composition changes over
       | time. It may be impractical to punish one cog in the system
       | without imposing a cost on the rest of the system, many of whom
       | had nothing to do with the decision.
        
       | porphyra wrote:
       | Tesla aced another independent out-of-sample crash test [1].
       | 
       | The danluu article also mentions an iSeeCars report at the bottom
       | that says that Teslas have a high amount of fatalities per mile
       | driven [2]. However, while they claim to be using official US
       | estimates of fatalities data, they normalized it with estimated
       | mileage using unknown proprietary iSeeCars data:
       | 
       | > iSeeCars analyzed fatality data from the U.S. Fatality Analysis
       | Reporting System (FARS). Only cars from model years 2018-2022 in
       | crashes that resulted in occupant fatalities between 2017 and
       | 2022 (the latest year data was available) were included in the
       | analysis. To adjust for exposure, the number of cars involved in
       | a fatal crash were normalized by the total number of vehicle
       | miles driven, which was estimated from iSeeCars' data of over 8
       | million vehicles on the road in 2022 from model years 2018-2022.
       | Heavy-duty trucks and vans, models not in production as of the
       | 2024 model year, and low-volume models were removed from further
       | analysis.
       | 
       | Some numbers are also surprising, such as the Model Y having
       | almost twice the fatality rate (10.6 per billion miles) as the
       | Tesla average (5.6) --- suggesting that there's a wide gulf
       | between it and the Model 3 in terms of fatality rates, which
       | seems difficult to explain. Ultimately, iSeeCars is a small VC-
       | funded startup with very few people and so it is unclear if their
       | methodology is actually good or not.
       | 
       | For a better blog post about whether Teslas are safe, here's a
       | post from Brandon Paddock [3] from a year ago, which seems more
       | or less objective and unsurprising. Here is the conclusion that
       | he drew upon analyzing the FARS data:
       | 
       | > Tesla's fatal accident rate is nearly identical to that of the
       | Audi A4 series, and far lower than a standard Ford mid-size
       | sedan. In this case, the Ford's accident rate is more than 4
       | times higher than the Tesla Model 3.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-aces-safety-tests-
       | ch...
       | 
       | [2] https://www.iseecars.com/most-dangerous-cars-study
       | 
       | [3] https://brandonpaddock.substack.com/p/are-teslas-the-most-
       | or...
        
       | ggreer wrote:
       | The 2024 update in this post (which claims the worst brands are
       | Tesla, Kia, Buick, Dodge, and then Hyundai, in that order) uses
       | data from an iSeeCars blog post[1], which claims to have gotten
       | their data from the U.S. Fatality Analysis Reporting System[2].
       | There's one important detail they mention in the blog post:
       | 
       | > To adjust for exposure, the number of cars involved in a fatal
       | crash were normalized by the total number of vehicle miles
       | driven, which was estimated from iSeeCars' data of over 8 million
       | vehicles on the road in 2022 from model years 2018-2022.
       | 
       | Note that the mileage data for each model comes from iSeeCars,
       | not FARS. We don't know how accurate it is. There could be
       | selection effects because iSeeCars only gets odometer data for
       | cars that are for sale or have been sold, not vehicles that
       | people keep. If for example, someone reserved a Model Y and sold
       | it above the original price as soon as they got it (a common
       | practice for new Tesla models), and the second owner kept the car
       | indefinitely, iSeeCars would only see the odometer reading at the
       | early sale. Tesla mileage would also skew low in sales data for
       | anyone who bought an electric car, then regretted it for one
       | reason or another, and exchanged it for a gas car. And since the
       | rate they are measuring is fatalities per vehicle mile traveled,
       | not per passenger mile traveled, any model that tends to contain
       | more people will skew higher in the stats.
       | 
       | If you query FARS data to get all Teslas involved in occupant
       | fatalities from 2018-2022, there are 141.[3] If you split out the
       | data by model, there were a total of 22 Model Ys involved in
       | occupant fatalities from 2018-2022 (actually 2020-2022, as the
       | Model Y was released in 2020). If there were 10.6 Model Ys
       | involved per billion miles, then (according to iSeeCars) the
       | total number of miles traveled by Model Ys was 2.07 billion. By
       | the end of 2022, the US had approximately 484,100 Model Ys on the
       | road.[4] If you divide the total vehicle miles traveled by the
       | number of vehicles, then the average Model Y had less than 4,300
       | miles on its odometer. That seems suspiciously low, as Tesla's
       | 2021 report put the average Model Y at 13,000-14,000 miles per
       | year.[5]
       | 
       | This artifact in mis-measuring mileage would also explain why
       | other recently released models seem to have high fatality rates.
       | The Honda CRV Hybrid was released in 2020. The Buick Encore GX
       | was released in 2020. US production of the Hyundai Venue didn't
       | ramp up until 2020. The Toyota Corolla Hybrid was released in
       | 2019. Most people who buy a new car either sell it quickly
       | (because they dislike it and want something else), or they keep
       | it until it gets old. So anyone collecting milage data from car
       | sales will have data that is skewed low for new models because
       | the higher mileage sales haven't happened yet.
       | 
       | It may be the case that I'm using different reports than iSeeCars
       | did. It's hard to know whether they're looking at vehicles
       | involved in fatal crashes, drivers involved in fatal crashes,
       | drivers killed in fatal crashes, occupants involved in fatal
       | crashes, or occupants killed in fatal crashes. FARS lets you
       | query all of these, and the iSeeCars post doesn't make it clear
       | which data they used.
       | 
       | Another odd thing about the iSeeCars data is that they claim an
       | average of 2.8 vehicles involved in a fatal accident for every
       | billion miles traveled. But in 2022, the US had 13.3 deaths per
       | billion miles traveled by car. Unless the average accident
       | involves 5 fatalities, it seems to me that the iSeeCars data has
       | some significant issues.
       | 
       | 1. https://www.iseecars.com/most-dangerous-cars-study#v=2024
       | 
       | 2. https://www.nhtsa.gov/research-data/fatality-analysis-
       | report...
       | 
       | 3. https://cdan.dot.gov/query I don't know how long they retain
       | generated reports for, but mine was available at
       | https://cdan.dot.gov/files/files/b14dcfb4-1f45-4eeb-abda-744...
       | when I made this comment.
       | 
       | 4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_Y#Sales states
       | 172,700 sold in 2021 and 231,400 in 2022. Other estimates put
       | around 80,000 sold in 2020, for a total of 484,100.
       | 
       | 5. See page 79 of https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/2021-tesla-
       | impact-report.pdf
        
       | chiph wrote:
       | I haven't seen anyone talk about how the fleet of cars on US
       | roads is now older than ever. Approximately 12 years now. That's
       | 12 years of safety engineering improvements that aren't there. I
       | am not advocating for government handouts or another "cash for
       | clunkers" program to get them off the roads. But I think it's
       | something that people should consider when shopping for a used
       | vehicle.
        
         | WarOnPrivacy wrote:
         | > That's 12 years of safety engineering improvements that
         | aren't there.
         | 
         | The last 12 years mostly replaced attention-preserving tactile
         | controls with attention-demanding screens.
         | 
         | Coexisting with that decreased ability is a race-to-the bottom
         | where new vehicles kill visibility for everyone else
         | (headlights blind ahead; oversizing erases visibility of every
         | car around).
         | 
         | I have never felt less safe on the road.
         | 
         | And for the privilege, everyone's insurance rates climb and
         | climb and climb - unreasonably punishing people who don't drive
         | super-expensive-to-repair vehicles.
        
           | chiph wrote:
           | You'll get no argument from me how automobile control system
           | ergonomics have gone to shit.
           | 
           | But I was thinking more about passive safety improvements
           | from body structure engineering and auto-braking systems.
        
         | MikeKusold wrote:
         | That's because all of those safety engineering improvements
         | have caused the average cost of a vehicle to skyrocket.
        
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