[HN Gopher] The withering dream of a cheap American electric car
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       The withering dream of a cheap American electric car
        
       Author : voisin
       Score  : 104 points
       Date   : 2024-11-17 23:52 UTC (23 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.wsj.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.wsj.com)
        
       | bartvk wrote:
       | https://archive.ph/9oIT4
       | 
       | I wish it would have adjusted for inflation. One quote: "The
       | average transaction price for a new vehicle sold in the U.S. last
       | month was $48,623, according to Kelley Blue Book, roughly $10,000
       | higher than in 2019, before the pandemic." However, about 9200
       | euros of that is due to inflation according to this calculator:
       | https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/
       | 
       | That's a nitpick though. All in all, an interesting article,
       | which can be summarized as: the EV car market is lacking demand,
       | and car makers definitely don't want to make cheap EVs since it's
       | already so hard.
        
         | rootusrootus wrote:
         | > the EV car market is lacking demand
         | 
         | There is scant evidence for this. Every time prices improve,
         | sales surge. Sounds like the demand is there, but price
         | matters. As it always has.
        
           | cosmic_cheese wrote:
           | Yep. Midrange-to-expensive EVs have been around for long
           | enough that pretty much everybody in those market segments
           | who are currently interested have already bought one.
           | Additionally, the segment has been flooded with midsize SUVs,
           | with the odd midsize sedan -- variety is sorely lacking.
           | 
           | Between these two, quite a considerable market is being left
           | unaddressed. The first to fill these niches with affordable
           | models that don't have weird quirks or make strange tradeoffs
           | will likely do well.
        
             | wlesieutre wrote:
             | I'm hoping for manufacturers to pull back on the "all
             | controls are via touchscreen" and "you can't have carplay
             | because we want to charge you our own monthly fees" trends.
             | 
             | Taking Chevy for example, they have physical HVAC controls,
             | but they're counting on the average consumer being too
             | clueless to realize they only have Google Maps in their car
             | because it came with a free OnStar trial. Eventually people
             | are going to notice that they spent $1000+ to buy the
             | larger screen upgrade, and now Chevy wants them to shell
             | out $300/year forever to be able to use it for maps.
             | 
             | The other big unknown is lifespan of car software
             | platforms, if these end up being like phones where they get
             | laggier and laggier with continued software updates, until
             | eventually it's unusable, people aren't going to be happy
             | about it. But we won't know for 15 years exactly how bad
             | that problem is.
        
               | cosmic_cheese wrote:
               | The trend to exclude CarPlay and/or Android Auto really
               | is awful.
               | 
               | Not only is there a high risk of notoriously underpowered
               | head units becoming increasingly laggy over time with
               | updates, there's also the risk of the automaker deciding
               | that shipping new updates for your only slightly old EV
               | is too much of a cost to bear and dropping support,
               | making the head unit slowly become more and more useless
               | over time as apps stop running.
               | 
               | CarPlay/Android Auto is an excellent hedge against both
               | of those scenarios, even if one prefers the onboard
               | experience. It never hurts to have an escape hatch.
        
               | renewedrebecca wrote:
               | Indeed. I won't buy a car that doesn't support CarPlay.
        
               | wlesieutre wrote:
               | "Escape hatch" is exactly how I describe it. I don't care
               | how good a car's screens are today, I know they get
               | software updates and I don't trust them to not screw it
               | up down the road.
               | 
               | Yeah, we could go back to suction cup phone mounts on the
               | windshield if we had to, but that feels pretty stupid
               | when the car has a 12" screen in the dashboard.
        
             | KptMarchewa wrote:
             | >with the odd midsize sedan -- variety is sorely lacking
             | 
             | Sedans are nothing. Just barely, finally, after all those
             | years, we have electric kombis - VW ID.7 Tourer and Audi A6
             | Avant e-tron.
        
             | matthewdgreen wrote:
             | A big part of that market is being addressed by used EVs,
             | which are getting much cheaper right now as they age out of
             | new-car-buyers' households. https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-
             | sale/used/tesla
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | I wouldn't buy a used EV because the battery pack is that
               | much closer to needing to be replaced, which effectively
               | totals the vehicle.
        
               | IneffablePigeon wrote:
               | One could say the same about a combustion engine, really.
               | Battery packs last way, way longer than most people think
               | because they analogise it to phone batteries which are
               | quite different. The resale value of a degraded pack is
               | also going to be higher than most people assume, I think.
               | Unfortunately we have not had plentiful EVs with good
               | battery packs for long enough to show this to the average
               | consumer.
        
               | _huayra_ wrote:
               | I guess the question comes down to how does one know if
               | the battery pack is good? When I buy a regular used gas
               | car, I can get all sorts of diagnostics about it out of
               | the OBD2 port, pull a spark plug and stick a scope into
               | the combustion chamber to see if there's any issues (e.g.
               | on the walls).
               | 
               | With an electric car, how can one tell if the pack has
               | been charged all the way up to 100% all the time (vs. the
               | much better 40-70% range)?
               | 
               | This is the "term premium" of batteries it seems, and I
               | honestly don't know if there's a reliable answer.
        
               | lutorm wrote:
               | At least on our PHEV, when you read out the battery
               | module state with an OBDII reader, you get to know not
               | only the current estimated capacity but also how much
               | time it's spent at various states of charge, how much
               | time it's spent being charged and discharged at different
               | currents, how much time it's spent at different
               | temperatures, and a completely absurd amount of other
               | diagnostics.
               | 
               | I'd feel a lot better about the state of the battery if I
               | bought one used, rather than the state of the ICE. It's
               | possible to borescope it, but you have no way of telling
               | how long the previous owner went between oil changes, if
               | they flogged it out to redline regularly, etc.
        
               | cottsak wrote:
               | you just need to know the SoH (state of health). If
               | that's 90% then you've lost 10% of the range at new. The
               | lower the SoH for the same vehicle make, model, year and
               | driven kms, then the worse the car has been treated.
               | Simple as that.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | I'm reminded of various videos on Youtube where they
               | dissect grenaded engines. "Oh look, the Cummins in your
               | pickup dropped a valve seat. That's going to cost you
               | $50K."
        
               | cottsak wrote:
               | I don't understand where this thinking comes from. It's
               | not based in fact. These Tesla batteries degrade very
               | slowly. And so if in 5 years you've lost 15% of the
               | range, it still gets you anywhere you need to go
               | including road trips with all of the Superchargers!?
               | "totals the vehicle" is just nonsense and I wish more
               | people understood the reality.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | > I don't understand where this thinking comes from.
               | 
               | My observations, which certainly don't reflect the
               | current state of the tech (although if I'm buying a used
               | EV, I'm not buying the current tech). But that's my bias
               | nonetheless. I do think I overemphasized this, though,
               | because while this is what makes me shy away from the
               | idea of used EVs, it's not the reason why I avoid buying
               | cars that are too new (which includes pretty much all
               | EVs).
        
               | kjksf wrote:
               | It's not an observation because it's not something that
               | you've observed.
               | 
               | Here's the truth based on an observation: Tesla's battery
               | capacity degrades 12% after 200k miles. Source:
               | https://insideevs.com/news/664106/tesla-battery-capacity-
               | deg...
               | 
               | 200k miles is effectively the lifetime of a car. Average
               | US person drives 10k miles so that's 20 years of driving.
               | 
               | Tesla's warranty "guarantee at least 70 percent retention
               | of battery capacity over 8 years and 100,000 miles or
               | more". Source: https://www.motortrend.com/features/tesla-
               | battery-warranty/
               | 
               | And latest chemistries are even better. In 2020 Jeff Dahn
               | (who leads battery research group in Canada funded by
               | Tesla) published a paper about million mile battery.
               | Source: https://www.electrochem.org/dahn-unveils-million-
               | mile-batter...
               | 
               | Since Tesla funds Dahn's research, they get the IP. This
               | is just in the lab but those advancements are trickling,
               | over time, to Tesla's battery making (and not just Tesla:
               | every battery maker does research to make batteries
               | cheaper and last longer).
        
               | Sohcahtoa82 wrote:
               | Supposedly, first-gen Leafs were known to have pretty
               | nasty degradation due to lack of sufficient cooling.
               | Combined with an already short-range battery, and the
               | belief that you'd need to replace the battery frequently
               | was justified.
               | 
               | Key word: WAS
               | 
               | Of course, modern EVs, and basically all Teslas, have
               | bigger batteries with better cooling, so it's no longer
               | an issue. But the belief won't die, just like how people
               | still make memes about Java being slow as if it's still
               | 1998.
        
               | sowbug wrote:
               | The average car today lasts 12 years, or 200,000 miles,
               | with 300,000 miles possible with luck and good
               | maintenance. Modern EV batteries are designed to last
               | longer than that. Moreover, EV battery capacity loss is
               | nonlinear: most (I've read 80%) of the eventual loss
               | happens in the first couple years.
               | 
               | So if you're looking for a car with the least amount of
               | battery degradation between purchase and EOL, buying a
               | used EV rather than new is actually the better decision.
        
               | 542354234235 wrote:
               | A recent analysis of 10,000 EV vehicles shows that they
               | only lose about 1.8% capacity per year[0], so they are
               | perfectly useable up to 150-200k, which is the same
               | general useful lifespan of ICE vehicles. [1] EVs and
               | Plug-in Hybrids cost less to maintain than ICE vehicles.
               | [2] Over 200k miles, ICE vehicles are about double the
               | maintenance cost of EVs or Plug-in hybrids, and EVs are
               | slightly more than Plug-in hybrids.
               | 
               | -At 50k miles; EVs $600, Plug-in $1,050, ICE $1,400.
               | 
               | -100k miles; EVs $2,000, Plug-ins $2,600, ICE $4,400.
               | 
               | -200k miles; EVs $6,300, Plug-ins $5,900, ICE $12,300.
               | 
               | EVs use about 30kWh to go 100 miles [3] and at the US
               | national average for electricity [4], that would be about
               | $ 9,978 to drive 200k miles. ICE vehicles vary, but 35
               | mpg combined is pretty average for compact cars. At the
               | US national average for gasoline [5], that is $ 17,548 to
               | drive 200k miles. Plug-in hybrids use about 29kWh to go
               | 100 miles and about 48 mpg. Just assuming 50/50 driving
               | on gas or electric, that's about $11,220 to drive 200k
               | miles.
               | 
               | So maintenance and fuel cost over 200k miles would be
               | roughly:
               | 
               | -EVs $18,852
               | 
               | -Plug-in Hybrids $17,120
               | 
               | -ICE $29,848
               | 
               | [0] https://thedriven.io/2024/09/19/new-study-finds-vast-
               | majorit...
               | 
               | [1] https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a32758625/how-
               | many-mil...
               | 
               | [2] https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/10/owning-an-
               | electric-car-...
               | 
               | [3] https://www.perchenergy.com/energy-
               | calculators/electric-car-...
               | 
               | [4] https://www.energybot.com/electricity-rates/
               | 
               | [5] https://gasprices.aaa.com/
        
             | JKCalhoun wrote:
             | > The first to fill these niches with affordable models...
             | 
             | And is not tariffed to the point they are not competitive.
             | 
             | I'm on the fence as to whether tariffs are good or bad, but
             | I do wonder if an external player might not be able to come
             | in and shake up the US auto industry.
             | 
             | I feel like the working class in the U.S. are paying way
             | too much for what amounts to a necessity for their
             | livelihood: the automobile. We'd all benefit (the planet
             | that is) if the options included inexpensive electrics
             | rather than merely gas and diesel.
        
               | DCH3416 wrote:
               | What would really help the working class is building out
               | actual forms of transportation beyond private
               | automobiles. That way we're not subject to a single point
               | of failure in our ability to move around. Maybe warm up
               | to the idea of ebikes for getting around town, and bring
               | back some trams for city to city connections. Then you
               | can free up the roads for actual useful transit.
               | 
               | The US is one crisis away from our expensive to maintain
               | road infrastructure being unsustainable. The American
               | people are one crisis away from their $60k SUV being
               | worth nothing and still owing a four figure note against
               | it. They're also one fuel crisis away from being unable
               | to pay to use it. And we don't really have any
               | alternatives at a scale to handle those sorts of things.
               | 
               | We're really going to have egg on our face at some point.
               | And the only option will be to import affordable EVs the
               | rest of the world has been building and developing.
        
               | cosmic_cheese wrote:
               | Economics is not my field, but I'd reason that tariffs
               | can be useful if they're used as a scalpel instead of as
               | a sledgehammer.
               | 
               | So for example, if the goal is to stimulate domestic
               | automakers to be more competitive without unnecessarily
               | risking killing them off entirely, a moderate tariff that
               | pushes the price of ultra cheap foreign cars up to a
               | level that's reasonably achievable by the domestic
               | automakers but still well below the average price could
               | be a good thing.
               | 
               | Where tariffs are just plain bad is when they're so high
               | that domestic manufacturers don't even have to think
               | about trying to compete and can continue to drive up
               | prices unabated.
        
             | rconti wrote:
             | My aunt and uncle have a couple of Teslas (at different
             | homes, I think). We have one as well. They're looking at
             | replacing one with another EV, so she was probing me for
             | options, and then also said "I can't help but notice your
             | recent vehicle purchases have not been EVs. Hmm.."
             | 
             | I don't get it. We already have an EV. Why would I buy more
             | EVs? The one that gets commuted in every day is already in
             | our driveway. It already does the work. It doesn't need
             | replacing, or adding to.
             | 
             | I'm a car person. There are so many cars I want to own in
             | my life, so much to experience. I will admit I briefly
             | considered buying a 10 year old BMW i3 BEV because it
             | seemed like a fun runabout for not much money, but most of
             | the _other_ EVs on the market serve the "practical" market,
             | or are too expensive. I bought a Fiat 500 Abarth because
             | it's an absolute insane hoot to drive. I bought a roadster.
             | These are not exactly markets served by EVs. At the very
             | least, we need another decade or two of sales to build up
             | the inventory of interesting/unique/quirky models that get
             | introduced by manufacturers over time.
             | 
             | But mostly, I want something fun to drive with character- a
             | nice gearshift, an exhilarating powerband, ... not another
             | competent appliance. We have a competent appliance at home.
             | 
             | The EV market isn't saturated, but just because an EV owner
             | doesn't serially buy EVs doesn't mean the shine has come
             | off. It just means the 100,000 mile, 6 year old Model 3
             | does exactly what it did the day we bought it, and there's
             | no reason to replace it.
        
               | cosmic_cheese wrote:
               | I hear you on the lack of diversification in models
               | available.
               | 
               | I'd really love to see an EV that's in line with the
               | virtues of the Honda Fit, Honda Element, and Toyota
               | Matrix -- not sexy or fancy, but cheap, insanely
               | practical little "everything cars" that can take on
               | anything you throw at them with tons of cargo space, fold
               | flat seating, stock roof rack, etc -- cars that are made
               | for doing things instead of impressing the neighbor or
               | acting as a status symbol.
               | 
               | There's absolutely nothing like this in the EV space
               | right now. The closest thing that's upcoming is Rivian's
               | R3, which isn't likely to be as cheap as the
               | Fit/Element/Matrix were.
        
               | rconti wrote:
               | I do think that the i3 is the one that fits best here.
               | But being an all carbon fiber structure, being 2-10 years
               | old, being a BMW, I understand there are a lot of strikes
               | against it here when people think "cheap small economical
               | car with a lot of space inside".
               | 
               | It's such a shame Honda won't sell the e here. I'm not
               | going to say "I'd buy one in a second" because I'm not
               | paying new car prices for one, but I wouldn't have bought
               | a Fit new either. And yet, people bought the Fit new. And
               | I'd happily buy a used Fit, it was actually on my
               | runabout shopping list as well. (Fit with a manual
               | trans).
        
               | cosmic_cheese wrote:
               | I considered a used i3 when I last shopped but got
               | spooked by how some models used plastic parts that can
               | break easily and have cooling systems which can fail
               | spectacularly, both of which are costly to fix. If it
               | weren't for that there'd probably be one in my garage
               | now.
        
           | blackeyeblitzar wrote:
           | I guess I don't understand the advantage of EVs really. Isn't
           | a plug in hybrid the best option? You can do everyday short
           | trips on battery but also have the gas engine for longer
           | trips. Sure it is more complicated but Toyota has shown that
           | you can make this super reliable.
        
             | bryanlarsen wrote:
             | You're never going to a hybrid under $25,000. Pretty much
             | everywhere but the US has the option of getting an electric
             | car for under $25,000 from BYD or Renault.
             | 
             | I've done over 20,000 km in road trips in an EV. You charge
             | while you're eating or toileting or sleeping, it doesn't
             | affect my trips.
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | I agree, the range has rarely been a problem for me. The
               | battery runs out of juice about the time my butt needs a
               | break, my bladder needs emptying, and my stomach needs
               | filling. By the time I'm done with lunch, I'm good for
               | another 250-300 miles, and I'm going to stop for the
               | night at that point anyway. People doing >500 miles per
               | day on a roadtrip are the outliers. Way, way outliers.
        
               | M4rkJW wrote:
               | I drive home from Virginia to Florida in a single day,
               | typically with one stop at the Florence, SC Buc-ee's.
               | That's nearly 600 miles (in a gas RAV4). I do this a
               | couple times a year and it takes about 9 hours, less if
               | there's no cops.
        
               | renewedrebecca wrote:
               | Out of curiosity, how long are those trips though?
               | 
               | In the US and probably Canada, there's an expectation
               | that spending 8 hours in one day going somewhere is
               | easily doable. (as in 800 km in 8 hours with a few 10-30
               | minute breaks for gasoline or food). It doesn't seem like
               | that's a particularly normal thing for a European to do.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | 4 of the trips were 3000km each.
               | 
               | Longer trips are actually easier in an EV because you
               | have no expectation of being able to power through
               | without stopping for breaks. And it adds the option of
               | charging overnight at a hotel.
               | 
               | It's the medium distance trips that are harder in an EV.
               | A 500-800km trip is something people without kids expect
               | to be able to do without any breaks.
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | Now you have to find a hotel with (working) overnight
               | charging. These are rare in the USA epecially outside of
               | major cities.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | They are rare, but easy to filter for in the standard
               | hotel apps.
               | 
               | For most of my trips I was also able to use block heater
               | plugs, which are ubiquitous in Western Canada. 120V isn't
               | enough to get a full charge overnight, but 8-10 hours of
               | charging at 120V is still adds a nice boost.
        
               | WorldMaker wrote:
               | > Pretty much everywhere but the US has the option of
               | getting an electric car for under $25,000 from BYD or
               | Renault.
               | 
               | The US is afraid of competition in the automotive
               | industry and the current import tariffs and taxes on cars
               | are a bit of an elephant in the room here, too.
        
               | noworriesnate wrote:
               | We have three choices: 1) compete by enslaving our
               | workers and treating them horribly like they do in China,
               | 2) refuse to compete by simply outsourcing the slavery to
               | China, or 3) compete by treat our workers well, use
               | tariffs and tacitly admit that Trump has a good idea.
               | Option 2 seems like the only option that is afraid of
               | competition.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | BYD just has to do the same thing Toyota did, build a
               | plant in Mexico and use NAFTA to sell well made cars for
               | dirt cheap.
               | 
               | I'm not yet convinced that BYD cars ARE well made yet
               | though. When Hyundai had a similar amount of mistrust
               | from American consumers, they improved their standing by
               | offering a very compelling warranty, 100k miles or 10
               | years. The problem is I don't know if I can trust BYD the
               | COMPANY that much.
        
             | jopsen wrote:
             | For most people, their daily trips are well within the
             | range of what an EV can do.
             | 
             | And most people don't do long trips every week. Personally,
             | I try to optimize my life to avoid spending a considerable
             | part of it in a car.
             | 
             | With charging at home EVs are just easy. For long trips
             | charging every 2-3 hours isn't too bad (most humans benefit
             | from a break anyways).
        
               | Swizec wrote:
               | > And most people don't do long trips every week
               | 
               | Most people don't own multiple cars and wouldn't rent a
               | car for those rare use-cases when they already own a
               | perfectly fine car. It may be overall cheaper to do that,
               | but people don't think that way.
               | 
               | One or two annual holiday roadtrips to go see the family
               | and oops that EV starts looking like an annoying option.
               | Every friend I have who doesn't own a house and bought an
               | EV ended up returning it because of how annoying the
               | charging was to deal with.
               | 
               | It's not that charging was _hard_, it's that they had to
               | think about it.
               | 
               | edit: this may be an urbanite take. Even folks with cars
               | don't really use them to commute regularly. Semi-rare
               | trips only.
        
               | mjamesaustin wrote:
               | I enjoy road trips far more since getting an EV. It's
               | nice paying half as much or less in fuel costs.
               | 
               | Tesla's charging network is excellent, and I'm glad it's
               | opening to all EVs on the market. I used a third party
               | charger once and the horrible user experience made sure I
               | never will again.
        
               | lkbm wrote:
               | It's only 57%, so a good chunk who don't, but according
               | to [0], the median US _household_ does own two cars. I
               | assume that a fairly large majority of married people
               | have multiple cars (between the two of them), and only a
               | very small minority of unmarried people do.
               | 
               | [0] https://www.autoinsurance.com/research/car-ownership-
               | statist...
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | People who are spending new car money are not going to
               | settle for a product that requires planning and effort to
               | be used outside of one's daily routine.
               | 
               | This is also why 3-row SUVs and half ton crew cab trucks
               | have proliferated as much as they have.
        
               | Workaccount2 wrote:
               | I have found that people who are considering buying a new
               | car and immediately rule out EV's mostly do so out of
               | confusion and misunderstanding.
               | 
               | My father for instance wouldn't get one because he will
               | drive to the beach a couple times each summer, and does
               | not want to have to deal with waiting while charging.
               | However, he is also the type who stops for rests while
               | driving. But he, being old and stubborn, didn't want to
               | hear it.
        
               | Sohcahtoa82 wrote:
               | > People who are spending new car money are not going to
               | settle for a product that requires planning and effort to
               | be used outside of one's daily routine.
               | 
               | Maybe YOU won't, but others will.
               | 
               | I paid $60K for my Model 3 Performance. Yes, I chose to
               | plan out my charging stops when I take my annual 1300
               | mile road trip from Portland to Santa Clara, or my recent
               | 2,400 mile road trip from Portland to San Diego.
               | 
               | But I _CHOSE_ to plan them. You don 't _HAVE_ to. The car
               | 's built-in nav will easy plan charging stops for you. I
               | just choose to plan them out ahead of time (Using
               | ABetterRoutePlanner.com) to min-max my charging time. IE,
               | I can tell ABRP "This will be a stop where I expect to
               | spend at least 30 minutes", and it will adjust the rest
               | of the charging plan accordingly. Or I can tell it to
               | stop at specific chargers that might have a specific
               | place I want to eat, or whatever, but my usual workflow
               | is to set all my destinations (actual destinations, not
               | including chargers), hit Plan Drive, and then make some
               | minor adjustments to the charging plan.
               | 
               | I suppose in some way, I'm sort of proving your point.
               | But it's not nearly the chore you make it out to be. In
               | fact, I actually _enjoy_ the planning. Of course, one
               | person 's joy is another's drudgery.
        
             | jaco6 wrote:
             | An advantage of a pure EV over a hybrid is that you don't
             | have the maintenance liability of the combustion engine,
             | cooling system, and transmission.
        
               | jader201 wrote:
               | And brakes. My brake pads rarely touch my rotors.
               | 
               | Not only does this (and the things you pointed out)
               | reduce the cost of maintenance, it saves on trips to get
               | them done, and the headaches of the pressure most put on
               | you to get things done you don't need, just so they can
               | make even more money off of you.
               | 
               | Also, EVs on the highway (when hybrids are using the ICE)
               | are much quieter, and have more torque.
               | 
               | The only downsides I have noticed are:
               | 
               | - Higher up front cost (though I don't think hybrids are
               | much cheaper)
               | 
               | - Heavier = more frequent tire changes (again, not sure
               | hybrids are much better)
               | 
               | - Range for long road trips, resulting in having to pause
               | for long charges, and having to plan your route in
               | advance (definitely not a problem for hybrids)
        
               | warner25 wrote:
               | > And brakes. My brake pads rarely touch my rotors.
               | 
               | I still have the original brake pads on my 2008 Prius
               | with 150k miles. (And yes, I have them measured
               | periodically to see if they're still good.) This is
               | typical.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | What usually kills that age of Toyota brakes is not use,
               | but rust. I've had all 4 corners rust to death on my 2004
               | vintage Toyota. They use terrible metal that just cannot
               | resist rust at all.
        
               | wenc wrote:
               | Is that right?
               | 
               | With torque blending, regen braking is blended with
               | friction braking at low speeds (when regen braking is
               | ineffective). Friction braking is always needed to make a
               | full stop.
        
               | saati wrote:
               | Kinetic energy is a function of velocity squared, low
               | speed breaking damages the pads way less.
        
               | wenc wrote:
               | Sure but the pads are still being used frequently even
               | with regen braking.
        
               | edaemon wrote:
               | Friction braking is rarely needed to make a full stop. My
               | EV only applies blended braking in specific conditions
               | (cold temps, steep hills, and full battery) and I
               | essentially never touch the brake pedal.
        
               | wenc wrote:
               | You may not touch the brake pedal but the brake pads are
               | still being used to make a complete stop (this is how
               | regen braking systems work, at low speeds regen is not
               | effective so brake pads are used for the last few feet).
               | 
               | You'll use wear out your brake pads way less, but they
               | are still used very frequently (every time you make a
               | complete stop in fact).
        
               | Sohcahtoa82 wrote:
               | Are you sure it's not actually applying friction brakes?
               | 
               | I have a Model 3, and even when the driving mode is set
               | to "Stop" (enabling one-pedal driving), I know that it's
               | applying the friction brakes at low speeds, even when the
               | battery is warm and not full.
               | 
               | Regen isn't enough to slow the car to a stop, even in
               | ideal conditions, and it certainly can't hold the car in
               | place.
        
               | jader201 wrote:
               | > Friction braking is always needed to make a full stop.
               | 
               | In my EV6, I have a paddle on the left of my steering
               | wheel that I use (almost) exclusively for braking. It
               | 100% only uses regenerative braking, and I can definitely
               | tell the difference, as its stops are much more subtle
               | than when using the brake pedal for stopping (even when
               | coming to a stop super gently).
               | 
               | More evidence that it doesn't use friction brakes: when I
               | use the left paddle to brake, the car will sometimes edge
               | forward (just an inch or two). With friction braking,
               | this obviously never happens.
        
               | vundercind wrote:
               | I'd assumed PHEVs would include regenerative braking. Do
               | they not?
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | They do. PHEVs and even HEVs are very easy on their brake
               | pads. Usually to a lesser degree than BEVs, but it is not
               | uncommon for even traditional hybrid owners to never need
               | brake pad replacement for their entire ownership of a
               | vehicle.
        
               | sgerenser wrote:
               | Yes, all PHEVs have regenerative braking. I sold my Chevy
               | Volt a few months back with 50K miles and the brakes were
               | like brand new. It's very possible that they'll outlive
               | the rest of the car.
        
               | onecommentman wrote:
               | 25 year old sedan with a Northstar engine, a couple belt
               | and chain replacements, no significant transmission
               | issues, no significant engine work. _Regular dealer
               | maintenance_ No major battery pack replacements. May not
               | be the greenest, but I know I'm in the green. Plug-in
               | hybrids do sound cool...
        
               | avgDev wrote:
               | Combustion engine is a perfected tech, which can easily
               | last 100K+ miles. EVs do have a cooling system for the
               | battery.
               | 
               | EVs also have a battery which can be $20k, and electric
               | motors which are $10k. This really makes them awful on
               | the used market when the warranty runs out. If a used
               | Model 3 needs a battery it is basically scrap.
        
               | cottsak wrote:
               | but a used Model 3 doesn't! and that's the fake news
               | here. These batteries last ages.
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doAcNVuTnXU
        
               | avgDev wrote:
               | Seriously, a YouTube video is supposed to be proof that
               | batteries last ages? What is ages? If you provide
               | something I can read you might have been able to change
               | my mind.
               | 
               | Truth is not many want to risk buying a used electric car
               | and the depreciation reflects that.
        
               | DennisP wrote:
               | Generally, 10-20 years and 100K-200K miles. The US
               | requires a warranty of 8 years and 100K miles.
               | 
               | For newer cars it's hard to tell for sure since the tech
               | has improved significantly in recent years. But even the
               | earlier cars have done better than people expected.
               | 
               | A quick google turns up lots of sources you can read.
               | Here are a few:
               | 
               | https://unitil.com/blog/electric-car-battery-life-fact-
               | vs-fi...
               | 
               | https://blog.evbox.com/ev-battery-longevity
               | 
               | https://unitil.com/blog/electric-car-battery-life-fact-
               | vs-fi...
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | The 'transmission' on a hybrid is often no more
               | complicated than the 'transmission' on an EV, many (but
               | not all... looking at you, Hyundai) are much more simple
               | than ICE vehicles.
               | 
               | Also, for the duration that most new car buyers own _any_
               | car, any difference of maintenance liability of even a
               | traditional ICE vehicle is close to negligible. Most new
               | car buyers pay for a couple of years of fluid changes,
               | tires, and brakes... then they trade in the car. They 're
               | going to pay similar costs no matter the architecture.
        
               | schnable wrote:
               | but if there are higher maintenance costs a little later
               | in the vehicle's life, won't that impact the trade-in
               | value?
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | It can, but the degree to which it does in practice
               | varies. A used Maserati with $1000+ oil changes
               | definitely will. Failure costs of components at end-of-
               | life usually don't, until a vehicle is approaching end-
               | of-life. But the regular maintenance for a typical (P)HEV
               | is mid-life is similar to other vehicles.
        
             | p1necone wrote:
             | The biggest downside of a plugin hybrid is the complexity
             | and therefore higher service costs, likely shorter lifetime
             | etc. You have all the maintenance requirements of a regular
             | ICE vehicle _and_ an electric motor + battery on top of
             | that. Also the full electric range is likely much lower
             | than an electric only vehicle so running costs would be
             | higher.
             | 
             | Some EVs have full charge range that's not much less than a
             | full tank of gas on an ICE at this point - the range is
             | really a non issue for a lot of people.
             | 
             | I drive an EV with a comparably low range (~130 miles) and
             | I can still count on one hand the number of times I've
             | needed to drive further than that in one trip - on those
             | occasions other than my lunch/dinner stop being limited to
             | places with a charging station nothing really changed
             | compared to when I drove an ICE. The rest of the time I get
             | to plug it in in my garage overnight instead of having to
             | stop at petrol stations, which is a nice albeit minor
             | convenience increase.
        
               | KptMarchewa wrote:
               | In theory, yes - however, after all this time, 00s
               | Priuses are typically lowest maintanence (or, overall
               | TCO) cars.
        
             | Enginerrrd wrote:
             | I'm 100% with you.
             | 
             | Dodge has the 2025 ramcharger which has amazing specs! 690
             | mile range, 14,000lb towing capacity, 663 hp, etc. etc.
             | 
             | I've got reservations about dodge, and reservations about
             | the first year of the model from any manufactuerer.
             | Otherwise, I'd gladly shell out 70k+ and my left nut to get
             | one.
             | 
             | I really wish more manufacturers would go this direction.
             | I've got no interest in 100% EV, because I do things with
             | my truck that simply are not feasible with any EV model,
             | mostly due to range. The problem is, I do just enough truck
             | stuff with really tough requirements that I don't want a
             | non-truck without serious range. Yet, I still go to work in
             | an office a few days a week and would love to use plug-in
             | charge to do so.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Those are amazing specs. I want one that isn't luxury.
               | Give me cloth bench seats, no infotainment... I'm happy
               | with my basic 1999 F350 but it is showing rust (I expect
               | to lose the box in a couple years) and so I need to be
               | thinking about what next.
        
             | seanmcdirmid wrote:
             | A real EV has much better performance than a plugin hybrid,
             | which is more like the worst of both worlds when it comes
             | to driving experience. If you think only about economy, a
             | PHEV can make sense, but it is an overly complicated
             | solution which is bound to have extra maintenance problems.
        
               | schmidtleonard wrote:
               | Yes, and EREVs are obviously superior as a hybrid
               | architecture yet most of the ink gets spilled pushing
               | PHEVs, so it's pretty clear that people with PHEVs to
               | sell are pushing the narrative.
        
               | amluto wrote:
               | I'm suspicious that regulators have made the EREV
               | category worse than it could otherwise be:
               | 
               | See the CARB Regulation section here:
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Range_extender
               | 
               | Why not instead set a carbon price and otherwise let the
               | market and owners decide what mix of gasoline and grid
               | electricity to use?
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | HEVs and PHEVs are usually no more complicated or
               | burdensome to maintain than an ICE car, as their
               | architecture often eliminates or mitigates some
               | problematic ICE parts. Furthermore, very few new car
               | buyers continue to own a car towards the tail-end slope
               | of the product-failure bathtub curve. The advantage to
               | (P)HEVs over BEVs is not driving performance, but
               | versatility.
               | 
               | But yeah, don't buy a Prius Prime for the track. But
               | it'll work great for going to the grocery store for a
               | very wide variety of lifestyles and living situations.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | A lot of people buying BEVs aren't doing it for economy
               | or environment, but for the driving experience. It's a
               | splurge for sure, but it makes driving more fun.
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | That's the problem in the OP -- EVs in the US sell only
               | when they are premium vehicles. Cheap EVs don't quite
               | drive like a Model 3. People don't buy a Leaf over a
               | Prius Prime because of a better driving experience... and
               | something cheaper than a Leaf is going to be similarly
               | utilitarian.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | Then we are pretty much aligned? I don't think, at least
               | in the USA, that cheap EVs make much sense. The value
               | proposition definitely changes in other countries with
               | higher gas prices.
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | Yeah, gas prices are having less and less influence in
               | what cars people buy. The overlap between [people
               | squeezed by gas prices] and [people who demand cars from
               | automakers] is dwindling. Fun fact, only about 26% of
               | cars sales are new cars. The vast majority of drivers
               | have no say in what is made.
               | 
               | It is possible to make cheaper cars, but they aren't
               | competitive against nicer used cars. Back when cars
               | didn't last very long it was viable to sell a car with
               | basic amenities, like keyed locks, roll up windows, a
               | single exterior mirror, no stereo, no AC, etc. But now,
               | few are going to pay the prices that would demand when a
               | used car for around the same price has all of those
               | features. This pressure extends to cars of any drivetrain
               | type.
        
             | rootusrootus wrote:
             | I see PHEVs as the worst of both worlds. Electric but short
             | range, hybrid but lower efficiency. All of the complexities
             | and costs of both drivetrains added together.
        
               | matthewdgreen wrote:
               | And the high maintenance costs. Just took a hybrid SUV in
               | for maintenance after my maintenance plan expired, got a
               | depressingly high price quote for extended maintenance.
               | Adds literally thousands of dollars to the price.
        
               | vundercind wrote:
               | I don't know what a "quote for extended maintenance" is.
               | Like a subscription/insurance sort of thing? I've always
               | just taken cars in around the time they're supposed to
               | have things looked at based on maintenance tables, or
               | when something goes wrong.
        
               | matthewdgreen wrote:
               | Extended maintenance plans cover oil changes and normal
               | scheduled service. They're separate from warranties and
               | only cover some wear parts. Most manufacturers sell one.
               | See: https://www.edmunds.com/car-buying/prepaid-
               | maintenance-plans...
               | 
               | They're sometimes overpriced (due to dealer upsell) and
               | sometimes a good way to estimate what the manufacturer
               | estimates that routine maintenance will cost, at least
               | using their in-house service center. They can run $1000
               | to several thousand dollars for luxury cars.
        
             | smileysteve wrote:
             | Generally, no, a plug in hybrid is not the best option.
             | 
             | Where > 95% of trips are 2x30 mile trips (daily commuting);
             | the vehicle is accelerating and decelerating the extra
             | weight for no benefit. You have the increased battery wear,
             | where you exceed the optimal charging range 15-80% on LiPo.
             | Then the additional ICE factors such as brake wear, oil
             | changes, fuel rot (if you always charge and buy gas once a
             | quarter), coolant changes, an an exhaust system increase
             | maintenance necessities significantly (where a brushless
             | motor has no need for oil or open coolant).
             | 
             | Hybrids can also promote "green washing" ~ it's never
             | charged and driven on short commute trips, the system is
             | always charging the electric, using more gas than if it
             | were only gas, with lower performance, a shorter battery
             | life, and more components to fail.
             | 
             | The best option, is somewhere between renting an hybridICE
             | for less than once a quarter > 200 mile one way, road
             | trips; and, if your household driving is out of norms, ie >
             | 200 miles road trips every week, having a car in the
             | household fleet that is hybrid/ice.
        
           | ToucanLoucan wrote:
           | Because demand isn't the issue. The issue is a new car that
           | isn't a budget brand is increasingly a luxury option in the
           | United States, because, and say it with me...
           | 
           |  _Wages have been stagnant in the United States for nearly 50
           | years._
           | 
           | Every economic stat right now points to this as the core
           | issue. Consumers are squeezed more on every last good and
           | service, tons of services are now only available via
           | subscriptions which inherently cost more, and despite the
           | economy supposedly (and, actually) booming in a lot of ways,
           | that doesn't hardly at all make it's way down to the workers
           | either via higher wages, or via cheaper products.
           | 
           | This is a complicated situation that doesn't lend itself well
           | to comments but a number of the bigger datapoints include an
           | employment market that favored employers for the majority of
           | the time since the 70's, the ongoing slandering not to
           | mention outright interference on the part of employers
           | against labor organizing, "inflation" that when you scratch
           | the surface is just companies charging more because they can,
           | the ongoing consolidation of enterprise resulting in
           | monolithic companies that own dozens of brands of the same
           | product, none of which truly compete on price, on and on and
           | on.
           | 
           | There are a ton of good reasons for Americans to be broke,
           | and a number of prominent economists have been ringing alarm
           | bells for decades now that all of these things coming
           | together is going to stall the economy cold and send us into
           | the... by my count, fourth once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis
           | I've experienced.
        
             | MrHamburger wrote:
             | So if people would have money, there would be a demand. His
             | point still stands.
        
               | ToucanLoucan wrote:
               | I mean I think the distinction between "goods that are
               | not wanted" and "goods that are wanted but are not
               | affordable" is a significant one, but if you want to
               | stick strictly to the terms of art in economics, then yes
               | I suppose you're correct. And I didn't mean to argue his
               | point, but rather to reinforce it. If goods, when they
               | become cheaper, suddenly start moving again, then the
               | goods themselves aren't really the issue.
               | 
               | And I mean, this is exactly 100% my experience currently.
               | Our sedan could use replacement, it's about to hit the
               | 200k miles mark, and given it's primarily used by my wife
               | for inter-town transit, I would happily buy her an
               | electric car, but a _new_ electric car is hopelessly out
               | of our reach financially. And I make six figures!
        
               | MrHamburger wrote:
               | No it is exactly the same. If people can't afford to live
               | in mansions, then it makes no sense to build them. Nobody
               | will buy it. It is a demand problem.
        
               | redwall_hp wrote:
               | A car is an inelastic good that is priced beyond what the
               | market can actually bear. This is why the used market is
               | so insane: people make do with a secondary market because
               | they need the good but can't afford it on the actual
               | market. And now there's a supply crunch on that secondary
               | market, because the primary one has risen so much.
        
             | Workaccount2 wrote:
             | >Wages have been stagnant in the United States for nearly
             | 50 years.
             | 
             | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003
             | 
             | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0252881500A
             | 
             | There simply isn't data to back this up.
             | 
             | What you are referring to is capital gains (CEO pay)
             | compared to hourly pay (employee pay), which is a
             | misleading apples to oranges comparison.
        
               | PittleyDunkin wrote:
               | > What you are referring to is capital gains (CEO pay)
               | compared to hourly pay (employee pay), which is a
               | misleading apples to oranges comparison.
               | 
               | I assumed it was the infamous wage vs productivity chart.
               | 
               | https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/
               | 
               | This certainly aligns a lot better with what they're
               | saying than talking about executive pay (though I'm sure
               | that's also part of the problem).
        
               | ToucanLoucan wrote:
               | No, I'm talking about the stagnant wages:
               | https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/08/07/for-
               | most-...
               | 
               | Though, I don't think it's possible to talk about this
               | without also talking about the ludicrous salaries now
               | drawn by the executives either.
        
               | _huayra_ wrote:
               | > There simply isn't data to back this up.
               | 
               | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
               | 
               | Your nominal charts are extremely misleading. Real wages
               | have gone up about 10% since the GFC. Is it up? Yeah, but
               | that is quite a tiny amount annually, not even an
               | additional pack of gum.
        
           | vundercind wrote:
           | I can't make great use of a full EV but would love more AWD
           | PHEV options, of which there are currently few and they're
           | mostly very expensive. A PHEV can be my everything-car that
           | runs entirely on electricity for 90% of trips. I assume
           | there's some reason they're not a more widely-supported
           | option, but damn, I wish they were more common.
        
             | f1refly wrote:
             | Maybe because PHEV are a really dumb idea? You're lugging
             | around _two_ complete powertrains the whole time, a massive
             | waste of energy!
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | Not really. PHEVs are usually one-and-a-half drivetrains
               | at most. They're almost never as complicated as a
               | separate BEV and ICE drivetrains would be individually.
        
               | redwall_hp wrote:
               | They don't typically have a full transmission or CVT
               | either. Taking the new hybrid Civic for example: it just
               | has a basic planetary gearbox that handles forward,
               | reverse and highway cruising.
               | 
               | Any time you're not at highway cruising speed, it's just
               | in the normal position where the electric motor drives it
               | (the engine only functions as a generator). It's
               | effectively an electric car with a small, far under
               | provisioned in Civic terms, engine that comes on to top
               | the battery up sometimes if regen braking isn't enough.
               | 
               | At highway speeds, the gearbox has the engine drive. And
               | since it's a less powerful engine, it will have better
               | fuel economy than one that has to ever handle
               | acceleration from a standstill.
               | 
               | And the whole thing weighs about 3200-3400lb, far less
               | than any electric vehicle. So you're "lugging" around
               | less.
        
               | sgerenser wrote:
               | PHEVs generally weigh much less than a full EV with
               | equivalent range. Doesn't seem very wasteful to me.
        
               | maxerickson wrote:
               | And you get a big energy win with regenerative braking.
               | 
               | GP's argument can be countered with basically every
               | hybrid getting better mileage than its ICE sibling in
               | city traffic.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | The Prius gets up to 50 mpg on the highway too, much
               | better than ICE cousins.
        
               | robertlagrant wrote:
               | How is that possible? What's it doing that ICE cars can't
               | do on a highway?
        
               | vundercind wrote:
               | I'd guess it has something to do with its unusual
               | drivetrain. It can operate: 1) fully electric, 2) fully
               | electric _but_ with gas used in generator-mode to supply
               | power to the electric drive train, 3) gas engine
               | mechanically powering the wheels (like a normal ICE car).
               | 
               | I'd expect it operates in mode 2 a lot when at highway
               | speeds, but not accelerating.
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | I believe the Prius is either in mode 1 or 3. Never heard
               | that it has a generator capability, unless newer models
               | have changed?
        
               | numpad0 wrote:
               | Prius "eCVT" is a special planetary gearset that all
               | gears are powered. ICE is connected to the planets, input
               | and output has the alternator and traction motors.
               | Difference in resistance between two motors is imparted
               | to the ICE, achieving power mix and generation control.
               | 
               | It's a really simple and clever solution. So much so that
               | brain hurts to think about
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | Most ICE car engines are massively oversized for highway
               | cruising (so they have power for acceleration) and aren't
               | running efficiently during said cruising. Huge amounts of
               | engineering goes into trying to reduce this effect but
               | it's always there to some extent.
               | 
               | Hybrids use a smaller engine that is running in a more
               | efficient operating range during cruising (i.e. not
               | pulling a huge vacuum and moving lots of parts the whole
               | time). The battery/motor comes in for acceleration.
               | 
               | Unlike combustion engines, electric stuff isn't really
               | inefficient at low load.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | Prius uses an Atkinson cycle engine, doesn't it?
               | Inherently more efficient than a conventional engine,
               | albeit at the cost of lower power. You can get that
               | effect with variable valve timing in some power ranges,
               | at the cost of more complexity.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | The ICE engine in a Prius is a special branch of tech
               | that is more efficient at the cost of basically
               | kneecapped performance. Americans cannot stand needing a
               | full ten seconds to get onto the highway, because we all
               | drive like a bunch of roided up chimps who refuse to move
               | over to give the merging onramp any room.
               | 
               | For two decades there has been a roughly free 5% or so in
               | fuel economy available to any ICE car if only we could
               | manage to be slightly more patient drivers, but American
               | car buyers would literally rather spend twice the cost on
               | a V8, gasoline truck, that gets worse fuel economy than
               | it's $8k more expensive diesel variant, worse
               | performance, and often a less reliable engine.
               | 
               | Americans will swear that a ten cent increase in gas
               | prices will drive them to financial ruin, and then choose
               | to buy the SUV made out of a terrible truck chassis that
               | gets 20mpg. They did this despite having to learn the
               | hard way back in 2008 what it actually meant for gas to
               | be expensive.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | An ICE is typically most fuel efficient at about 2000 RPM
               | and 90% throttle (this is different for every engine of
               | course, but those numbers are close enough for
               | discussion). A typical car can be at 45% fuel efficiency
               | if you can pull that off, but 90% throttle when cruising
               | will bring your RPMs and thus ground speed up. A hybrid
               | can use a smaller engine that can just barely keep your
               | car moving at 90% throttle and use the electric to get
               | acceleration up to those speeds.
        
               | barbazoo wrote:
               | ICE weigh much much less than an EV with equivalent
               | range. It matters what you're optimizing for. Most people
               | seem to optimize cost, many for range and some for GHG
               | emissions. Based on which camp you're in, your judgment
               | of of something being wasteful will be different.
        
               | freeone3000 wrote:
               | Or, getting at what is actually desired, a car that can
               | be a wall-charged EV for in-town trips and daily
               | commuting but can use the existing gasoline distribution
               | network for long trips or in emergencies. We're in a
               | transition state, this isn't an unreasonable ask.
        
               | short_sells_poo wrote:
               | Nobody wants this, but in an imperfect world, one has to
               | make suboptimal compromises.
               | 
               | You can get an EV, and then have to deal with half a
               | dozen barely competent charging networks each with their
               | own donkey, slow and insecure app, their own quirks and
               | pricing schemes, etc. For some, the tradeoff is worth it,
               | for others it isn't.
               | 
               | You can also get a PHEV, which could allow you to use one
               | car for commuting purely on electric power - even if you
               | are lugging around an entire ICE power train - and then
               | also take the family out to the countryside over the
               | weekend. Without the having to deal with a bunch of
               | annoyed passangers when you are stuck midway through your
               | journey and the charging station you are trying to use is
               | giving you the massively helpeful error message of
               | "Charging failed, please try again later".
        
               | some_random wrote:
               | I think you'll find most normal people find PHEVs
               | extremely attractive propositions that are a perfect
               | compromise between ICE and EVs.
        
               | short_sells_poo wrote:
               | I mean, that's exactly what I'm saying. It's a
               | compromise. A pure EV would be much better if the
               | charging infrastructure was great. If it isn't, then you
               | need a compromise...
        
               | some_random wrote:
               | No, even if charging infrastructure was perfect EVs still
               | require a significant amount of time to charge compared
               | to refueling an ICE vehicle. There are other esoteric
               | benefits of ICE but that's the one the vast majority of
               | people are hung up on and that will likely not be fixed
               | anytime soon.
        
               | short_sells_poo wrote:
               | > Even if charging infrastructure was perfect EVs still
               | require a significant amount of time to charge compared
               | to refueling an ICE vehicle.
               | 
               | That's just down to charging infrastructure no? Sure,
               | there are physical limits to how much electricity one can
               | move in a given time, but we are nowhere at those
               | physical limits.
               | 
               | So it's just down to infrastructure in the end. If there
               | was infrastructure to quickly and reliably charge EVs,
               | ICE would only have niche advantages.
        
               | cpburns2009 wrote:
               | I'm waiting for an EREV midsize SUV. EREV sounds like the
               | ideal layout as opposed to HEV and PHEV which sound
               | mechanically over complicated with too many components
               | that can go wrong. The new Dodge Ramcharger sounds
               | amazing but I don't want a pickup and it's way outside of
               | my price point.
        
             | lumost wrote:
             | PHEV means two drive trains, more parts and in turn more
             | weight.
             | 
             | Do you really want a plugin car that loses its charge in 30
             | minutes?
        
               | mschuster91 wrote:
               | That's more than enough to cover the average worker's
               | commute, especially as most of the _time_ is spent stuck
               | in traffic.
        
               | Kudos wrote:
               | That's not true, it's barely enough to get the average
               | worker to their job
               | https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/one-
               | way-...
        
               | fwip wrote:
               | > Among this group, those leaving between 6:00 a.m. and
               | 6:29 a.m. reported the longest average travel time to
               | work at 32.8 minutes.
               | 
               | So, if "30 minutes" was actually how you measured range
               | (and not in miles), the average worker in the longest
               | group would burn fuel for 3 minutes, instead of 33
               | minutes. This is 90% less fuel than a traditional hybrid
               | car would use in the same time.
        
               | mschuster91 wrote:
               | Travel _time_ != travel _distance_. When you 're stuck in
               | traffic, an electric or hybrid car will not consume any
               | energy except for fans/heating/AC. An ICE-only car will
               | have to keep its engine running.
        
               | pif wrote:
               | > Do you really want a plugin car that loses its charge
               | in 30 minutes?
               | 
               | 30' are enough to go to work, where I can recharge during
               | the day for the return leg. 30' are enough for any daily
               | errand, too, so that would not be a problem.
               | 
               | Finally, for long trips, I'd use it as a "real" car with
               | its internal combustion engine.
        
               | vundercind wrote:
               | > Do you really want a plugin car that loses its charge
               | in 30 minutes?
               | 
               | Yes? Probably half of all my drives are 30 minutes or
               | less, round trip. Some get closer to 40ish minutes of
               | driving on battery, which would cover more like 90% of my
               | drives.
               | 
               | AFAIK it's not (usually?) two drive trains, it's one
               | electric drive train and a generator that's way smaller
               | than a normal gasoline engine.
        
               | gambiting wrote:
               | Yes, I've owned one for 4 years now and I genuienly
               | believe this is what all cars should be, it's just such
               | an obvious idea in hindsight it's crazy that this isn't
               | what everyone is pivoting to. I do all of my daily
               | driving on EV power using zero fuel and the car costs me
               | close to nothing to drive(charging nightly on a cheap
               | tariff), and when I need to drive across the continent to
               | visit family I just put in fuel and go, no bother with
               | charging on the way. And on slightly longer drives the
               | entire system improves efficiency a lot - just did a 100
               | mile drive this weekend to a holiday cottage, averaged
               | 45mpg both ways, and that's in a 2.2 tonne SUV with
               | 400bhp. That's the kind of number you'd see out of a
               | diesel normally.
        
               | mandevil wrote:
               | I own a PHEV, for almost a year now, as my daily drive.
               | It's not as good a BEV as a true BEV (range is ~20% of
               | one) and it's not as good a HEV as a true HEV (gas
               | mileage on hybrid mode is worse than my in-laws Prius').
               | But it perfectly fits our current life. We can do all of
               | our normal daily routine (commute/school drop offs) on
               | one charge, and when we head out of town I don't have to
               | worry about it (I live in a Western US state with long
               | drives between population centers- I can get range
               | anxiety just on gasoline as I did not grow up like this).
               | So we've driven it for 18,000 km, and 14,000 of those
               | have been fully electric, just a couple of weekend
               | getaways and one week-long trip around the country have
               | been on gas.
               | 
               | Getting all of that capability in one car is very
               | convenient. We replaced an 11 year old gas vehicle, and I
               | don't expect that this PHEV one will last us as long. But
               | it was the right car for us in our current situation.
        
               | slices wrote:
               | Since 90% of my car trips are under 30 minutes, yes that
               | would be worthwhile.
               | 
               | The other 10% are beyond any practical battery range, so
               | a BEV isn't an option.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | I think you exaggerate about BEVs. I have a friend of
               | mine who has a Boston condo and commutes with his Tesla
               | to his house in Northern Vermont most weekends. I think
               | he charges once along the way and then at home on both
               | ends. That said I'm going to Maine next week and I would
               | certainly have to track down convenient and reliable
               | chargers. And there would probably be some trips--even in
               | the Northeast--where they wouldn't be practical.
               | 
               | (I on the other hand drive into a city about 60+ minutes
               | away so I don't know what the percentage is but I do a
               | fair number of trips an hour+ away.)
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | That works, but EV chargers are rare enough that you
               | can't just see the charge meter getting to low and get
               | off at the next exit for a fill up like you can with a
               | gas charge. If you don't pay attention you can end up
               | with not enough charge make it to any charging station.
               | People run out of gas too, but most cars the gas light
               | comes at with 40 miles of range left - 40 miles of range
               | won't always get you to any EV charger (and with
               | different charging standards you cannot be sure your car
               | can charge at them all though this is getting better and
               | will likely be solved in a few years as we move to NACS).
        
               | harpiaharpyja wrote:
               | Is it two drive trains? I thought ideally PHEV would be
               | like diesel-electric with electric motors supplying
               | traction and a gas power plant supplying power.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Gears are more efficient (assuming you are not stupid in
               | design) than an electric generator and motor. We cannot
               | make gears that will do the job for a train - they
               | wouldn't fit between the wheels while also doing the
               | needed 90 degree turn to the engine. Once in a while
               | someone makes such a car, but it is generally better to
               | use a transmission.
        
               | fwip wrote:
               | "30 minutes" is pretty misleading, because it's not like
               | the batteries are discharging at a constant rate.
               | 
               | It might be thirty minutes on the highway, as new PHEV
               | cars have ranges in the 30-40 miles range. But if you're
               | driving in the city, 30 miles is enough to get you
               | basically anywhere you want to go and back, even if
               | traffic makes it a 2 hour trip.
        
               | toast0 wrote:
               | I own one and would prefer if my next car purchase was
               | another one. Unfortunately, while the model I've picked
               | for my next car has a PHEV option, they don't make very
               | many, and don't take orders, so if you really want it,
               | you probably need to put your name down at all the
               | dealerships, and the wait for regular hybrid is already
               | long and the vehicle to be replaced was sold in summer.
               | PHEV would be nicer, and we've made due longer than I
               | thought we would, but when our regular hybrid comes in,
               | that will be good enough.
               | 
               | PHEVs are lovely to drive, and availability of gas
               | stations means almost no planning is needed. Fuel low,
               | stop in for 5 minutes and good to go for hundreds of
               | miles (current one does 500-600/tank depending on
               | conditions)
        
             | yurishimo wrote:
             | They aren't more widely supported because they are more
             | expensive and more complicated to manufacture with a higher
             | potential for more stuff to go wrong.
             | 
             | Until the engine that powers a PHEV is nearly drop-in ready
             | for a replacement (for example, going to your local auto
             | parts store and buying a replacement like a battery) then
             | companies need to have service technicians and production
             | lines to support these "engines" (they're fancy generators
             | at this point).
             | 
             | However, that would also require automakers to standardize
             | to some degree or potentially cannibalize their own
             | business.
             | 
             | We've already seen this with batteries/panels in the
             | consumer space in regards to solar. I can buy whatever
             | packs of cells I want, and as long as the voltages match
             | up, I can mix and match to my hearts content. If I can only
             | get service for my Jeep PHEV from Jeep because the
             | drivetrain is a bespoke black box and parts are impossible
             | to get, then we'll keep seeing customers continuing to opt
             | for traditional gas vehicles or full EVs. PHEV is just too
             | complicated to support long term (imo).
             | 
             | If 90% of your trips can be covered by a normal EV, then I
             | would make the argument that you should buy one of those
             | (secondhand even!) and then rent a vehicle for the
             | instances where you need AWD. The fuel and tax savings
             | should likely make up for it in the long run. For that one
             | year that you don't go skiing in the mountains, then you're
             | coming out on top financially!
        
               | toast0 wrote:
               | > PHEV is just too complicated to support long term
               | (imo).
               | 
               | PHEV isn't that much more complex than an ICE. The
               | transaxle is typically mechanically simpler, and you have
               | two electric motor/generators instead of an electric
               | motor (starter) and an electric generator (alternator).
               | There's a big battery you need to find room for, and the
               | power wiring. And the engine control is significantly
               | different, but if it doesn't work, swap the ECU works as
               | well for an ICE and PHEV.
        
               | adolph wrote:
               | >> PHEV is just too complicated to support long term
               | (imo).
               | 
               | > PHEV isn't that much more complex than an ICE.
               | 
               | I've been an owner/operator of two Gen3 Prii for 14 years
               | and agree in practice even though in theory I would agree
               | with the complexity argument. The one maintenance hit for
               | both was for the vacuum pump needed for brakes/etc
               | because the car cannot assume the engine is always
               | running.
               | 
               | Toyota has moved to hybrid only for the Camry and Sienna.
               | This is an indicator to me that technology maturity and
               | US manufacturing is where it needs to be for broad
               | adoption.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Vacuum not being reliable has been a thing for decades -
               | diesel engines don't produce vacuum and so vacuum pumps
               | are available off the shelf. If anything those vacuum
               | pumps are oversized for cars since they are mostly used
               | on large trucks.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | People make the rental argument a lot. But having been in
               | a ski house quite a few years back with a lot of New
               | Yorkers who didn't own cars, I saw first-hand what a
               | relative main in the neck it was to rent a car for the
               | weekend (e.g. often having to go out to an airport and
               | planning ahead). That's maybe fine if the economics are
               | compelling but that probably assumes things like you even
               | have a commute by car. And that you're willing to give up
               | convenience to save even a few thousand dollars a year.
               | 
               | I have an ICE but I only fill the tank once or maybe
               | twice most months.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | If you drive an ICE that much you could be saving money
               | vs renting a car when you need one. I've done the math,
               | rental cars are expensive. Between the per day and per
               | mile charges it doesn't take long to make up the cost of
               | a cheap car. (if you insist on a new car of course that
               | is much more expensive than a 10 year old car) I keep
               | wanting to get rid of my truck that I only fill about
               | 4x/year, but it turns out it is hard to rent a truck, as
               | opposed to a truck shaped car. (I have found ways to do
               | this, but those trucks are even more expensive than a car
               | and they are out of the way)
        
             | Kudos wrote:
             | From what I've read most PHEVs tend to have really bad
             | batteries that are unreliable, complicated and expensive to
             | replace. It makes sense that they cut corners when there's
             | a whole other powertrain to mask it.
        
               | unregistereddev wrote:
               | Is there somewhere I can find more info on this? Car
               | enthusiast here who is genuinely interested in learning.
               | 
               | My impressions had been that it largely mirrors the EV
               | market: A few early PHEV models (such as the BMW i3) had
               | poor battery management leading to unreliable battery
               | packs. This was fixed in subsequent generations and is
               | not a problem unless you are scraping the bottom of the
               | used market. That's much the same as how EV batteries are
               | generally reliable unless you buy early versions of
               | certain problematic models (particularly the Nissan
               | Leaf).
        
               | MaKey wrote:
               | > My impressions had been that it largely mirrors the EV
               | market: A few early PHEV models (such as the BMW i3) had
               | poor battery management leading to unreliable battery
               | packs.
               | 
               | BMW i3 owner here. The i3 never had such issues and has
               | been praised for its overall great engineering (see
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjPIuLz5VFI and
               | https://evclinic.eu/2024/11/03/which-used-ev-to-buy-a-
               | beginn...). It is also not a PHEV but an EV that had an
               | option for a range extender.
        
               | Kudos wrote:
               | These guys do a lot of work on ICE, EVs and Hybrids,
               | scroll to the end where they discuss Hybrids
               | https://evclinic.eu/2024/11/03/which-used-ev-to-buy-a-
               | beginn...
        
               | numpad0 wrote:
               | It's Toyota cheaping out as always. They put a 1.5kWh
               | NiMH pack in the trunk, and charge $5k for replacement.
               | That's almost a big power bank capacity, and using that
               | small of a battery strains it too. Cost for enclosures
               | and control circuits don't scale with capacity so
               | dollar/kWh figure is atrocious.
               | 
               | It works. People hates it. The issues with it are mostly
               | theoretical or matters of preferences. That's hallmark
               | Toyota, isn't it...
        
             | conradev wrote:
             | The BYD Shark is ~$60k, but it's being only available in
             | Brazil and Australia. Ford is making a Ranger Sport PHEV,
             | but only for Australia and Europe. CATL launched its
             | Freevoy hybrid battery, competing with BYD. It's certainly
             | being worked on, but not in the US quite yet.
        
             | wil421 wrote:
             | BMW makes an PHEV X5 50e with about 30ish miles range and
             | the B58 straight six. Most other options get a dinky little
             | engine. The 5 series also has one that is just making its
             | way to the US, 550e.
             | 
             | Typed this before I saw that you said expensive. I'll leave
             | my comment anyway.
        
             | idontwantthis wrote:
             | I haven't seen one that is cost competitive with its
             | model's regular hybrid version. The EV adds thousands of
             | dollars, but only saves you about $3 per day in gas. For
             | example, The Kia niro is $9k more for phev and saves you
             | 0.6 gallons of gas per day so it would take over 10 years
             | for the cost to balance out. The funny thing is, the more
             | efficient the gas engine is, the less gas the phev can save
             | you.
        
           | jillesvangurp wrote:
           | It's actually growing at around 20% year on year, this year.
           | World wide. The EU is the exception. Mostly because Germany
           | is struggling. Everywhere else, EVs are growing pretty
           | nicely.
        
             | creshal wrote:
             | German manufacturers also seem to struggle the most with
             | the whole "the cheaper your products are, the more
             | customers can afford them" concept.
        
         | AgentOrange1234 wrote:
         | If even ICE cars are now super expensive, why isn't this a
         | screaming opportunity for some auto manufacturer to target the
         | low end of the market?
         | 
         | I've never spent more than 20k for a car. With prices like
         | this, I'm just going to keep my old one as long as I can.
        
           | wyre wrote:
           | My understanding is that because cars are generally purchased
           | rarely, they make more money with the status quo instead
           | allowing customers a budget option.
        
             | criddell wrote:
             | Budget options are out there but consumer demand for them
             | is weak. Americans love their cars and seem to be willing
             | to pay for a lot more car than they need.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Which would you buy - a brand new car with no options, or
               | for the same price a three year car with all the options.
               | Or you can go cheaper yet with a 10 year old car with all
               | the options of 10 years ago. Anything other than the most
               | luxurious car doesn't make sense for anyone to build in
               | general because people who want to pay less are willing
               | to settle for a used car.
               | 
               | If cars only lasted 3 years instead of the 20+ they do
               | today (average car is 12 years old), there would be
               | demand for cars that don't even have a heater by people
               | who want to save money.
        
           | bluedino wrote:
           | Kia sells quite a few cars that start at $20k, like the Soul
           | and Forte
        
             | wlesieutre wrote:
             | Quite a few $20k _ish_ , though only the Forte actually
             | making it under that. Forte LX starting at $19,900.
             | 
             | Of course that's without without the $1,155 "destination"
             | fee, so even the Forte really starts at $21,145.
             | 
             | But considering inflation, $21k isn't a bad price.
        
               | OptionOfT wrote:
               | We need laws that ban these junk fees. Any advertised
               | price should be one I can get when I walk in.
               | 
               | I cannot get the car without registration. I cannot get
               | the car without 'destination' fee.
               | 
               | Bake it into the price.
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | Registration cost is too variable. Varies by state, and
               | even by city.
        
               | bartvk wrote:
               | You'd say someone would build an API to retrieve that
               | information by city. But I would not be surprised that
               | the product seller can't be bothered inserting that
               | information into their sales flow.
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | Okay, so build the API, and now customers will need to
               | enter their locality before they can see the advertised
               | price. It won't be a popular decision.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | So compute and post some defaults? At least the state and
               | city that the dealership is located in?
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | Sure, add that to the list of disclaimers in the small
               | print so that the customer from the next town over will
               | have something to reference when the dealer cannot sell
               | them the car for the advertised price.
               | 
               | The problem is that cars are not treated like most other
               | commodities. E.g. You don't have to buy a license to use
               | a microwave or register it with the government. The
               | closest analog is if you live somewhere with sales tax.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | > add that to the list of disclaimers in the small print
               | 
               | Correct. Instead of a vague "registration fees may apply"
               | disclaimer now there's a "registration fees assuming
               | <city>, <state>" disclaimer. It's definitely not worse
               | for anyone, and is arguably better for the customers who
               | will register in <city>, <state>. That's a green light
               | for a utilitarian.
        
               | yonaguska wrote:
               | The destination fee isn't really a "junk" fee. it's
               | variable based on how far away from the plant that
               | manufactured your car or, or the distance from nearest
               | port of entry. Delivering a car isn't cheap. There's
               | certainly some level of arbitrage going on, but the
               | delivery driver is usually independent of the dealership.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | The dealership knows ahead of time how far they are from
               | the plant and how much it costs to ship the car. GP was
               | asking that the fee be included in the advertised price.
               | That's fair.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | The dealer should do that. However the manufacture cannot
               | do that - they are advertising to people all over the
               | country - some of live next to the factory and some who
               | live across the continent.
        
               | EricE wrote:
               | Just ask the dealer to compute the out the door price. It
               | really isn't that difficult and certainly doesn't require
               | yet another stupid regulation!
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | So instead of easily comparing prices online, now you
               | have to call dealers individually and ask them to compute
               | the out the door price? Which they already know and could
               | post online themselves?
               | 
               | This is exactly the kind of problem regulations are meant
               | to solve. Preventing false advertising and bringing
               | information to all market participants make the market
               | more efficient.
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | They'll have to know your address in order to accurately
               | tell you the OTD price. Are you willing to give that
               | information to every dealer you're querying about price?
               | 
               | There are also choices you can make during the
               | registration process that will change the costs a bit.
               | Quoting a fixed price for that would require yet more
               | small print disclosing that certain choices were made.
               | 
               | I just don't see how it works out. Registration costs
               | money. Not just when you buy the car, but over and over
               | and over throughout the time you own it. You should know
               | this as a driver. Further, the registration cost does not
               | vary by dealer, so you don't need to know it in order to
               | negotiate the best price.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | > Are you willing to give that information to every
               | dealer you're querying about price?
               | 
               | Dealerships generally get your name and phone number if
               | you call them to ask about the price including fees and
               | taxes. If you make them post defaults online, they get
               | nothing from you. Clearly better.
               | 
               | > There are also choices you can make during the
               | registration process that will change the costs a bit.
               | 
               | I'm curious about this. Do you have some examples?
               | 
               | Besides GP is also talking about things like the shipping
               | fee, which are decidedly not variable or unknown. The
               | dealership knows how much it costs them to ship the car
               | from the factory and how much they want to charge you.
               | They just choose not to disclose it.
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | > Dealerships generally get your name and phone number if
               | you call them to ask about the price including fees and
               | taxes. If you make them post defaults online, they get
               | nothing from you. Clearly better.
               | 
               | I email, not call, and I lie. About my name, phone
               | number, all of it. Best they will ever get is zip code.
               | They could post defaults, but then I still don't know the
               | actual OTD price -- it's already a hassle today because I
               | have to be aware that dealers will advertise discounts
               | that are only available in-state, and only mention that
               | detail in the small print. I live in a metro that spans
               | two states so this is common.
               | 
               | > I'm curious about this. Do you have some examples?
               | 
               | My state has a plethora of plate designs, and how much
               | you pay depends on which you pick (it's really just a
               | scheme for getting more revenue, of course). I can also
               | choose (dependent on the vehicle, not all qualify) to pay
               | for an extended registration period.
               | 
               | > They just choose not to disclose it.
               | 
               | I agree that they should disclose it. And they are
               | required to by law. It's on the Monroney sticker, and it
               | is included under "Total MSRP".
        
               | vundercind wrote:
               | Such regulations are _pro-market_ , too (not pro-
               | business, in the sense of being something business owners
               | will be thrilled about--confusing the two is a common
               | error). Increasing price transparency is supposed to be a
               | way to improve market efficiency.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | I didn't say pro-business. I'm sure dealerships won't
               | like it.
        
               | cpburns2009 wrote:
               | The destination fee is baked into the price in my
               | experience. I recently priced used vs new cars, and every
               | new car had the destination fee embedded in the
               | advertised price. Customizing a car on the Kia website
               | included the destination fee. No dealership in my metro
               | tacked on an additional destination fee. The destination
               | fee was line-itemed for total MSRP on the window sticker.
        
             | warner25 wrote:
             | The Nissan Versa currently starts around $17k, and I see a
             | lot of those on the road. The Mitsubishi Mirage is
             | similarly priced but I don't think I've ever seen one in
             | the wild. I rented a Kia Soul a few years ago and thought
             | it was perfectly fine.
             | 
             | But with so few options, like the parent, I'm planning to
             | keep my current car (a 2008 Prius) indefinitely, just
             | paying for repairs as needed until parts are unavailable or
             | nobody is willing to do the work.
             | 
             | My worry is that US automakers have all but abandoned the
             | compact and midsize economy car segments, and I don't know
             | what tariffs will mean for the Japanese and Korean
             | automakers that do cover these segments. But see my other
             | comment about the pendulum swinging back and forth.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | Japanese and Korean automakers make a lot of their US-
               | bound cars in USA, so I don't think it will be that bad.
               | A Honda civic is likely to be more American than a Chevy
               | compact, for example.
        
               | JohnBooty wrote:
               | I rented a Versa about 5-6 years ago and I was surprised
               | how completely "fine" it was.
               | 
               | It was a totally functional vehicle. The radio sounded
               | good enough. The seats were comfy enough. It was a bit of
               | a slug, but it had enough power so that you weren't
               | scared for your life when merging onto a highway.
               | 
               | If those sound like low standards... well, this was not
               | always the case for bargain basement cars...
        
               | warner25 wrote:
               | Right. I've been saying for a while that if you need four
               | seats or fewer, there's no good reason to buy anything
               | more expensive than an entry-level Versa, Soul, Corolla,
               | Civic, etc. (If you need five or more seats, especially
               | with kids' car seats, you're obviously looking at more
               | expensive three-row minivans.)
               | 
               | One way of looking at it, validating the point that
               | others have already made in their comments, it is that
               | there are no bargain basement cars anymore; _everything_
               | now comes with an automatic transmission, air
               | conditioning, power locks and windows, cameras and
               | sensors, etc. As recently as 2008 when I was buying my
               | Prius, these things were optional on many models. Today
               | 's compact cars are, I think, the size of midsize cars
               | from 20 years ago too.
               | 
               | It's kind of like housing in America where the cost per
               | square foot didn't actually rise much in some places, but
               | the average home is now twice the size, so the average
               | home price doubled.
        
               | jancsika wrote:
               | > The Nissan Versa currently starts around $17k
               | 
               | Vehicles at that price are usually crap, esp. the Versa
               | with the CVT engine. And, at least last year, there was a
               | shortage so that you'd be paying a few grand above that
               | price just to get it. I'd bet it's still the same where
               | you're paying closer to 20k for this car.
               | 
               | Now, if you could get a Versa with the simpler engine (I
               | think it was a manual shift), it's apparently a decent
               | car. But finding _that_ model is like a full-time job for
               | a week, then either flying out to whatever dealership has
               | it or getting it shipped which is another grand.
        
               | vundercind wrote:
               | Closer to $20k than $10k seems insane for a budget-tier
               | car, to me. I guess that's my age showing, but it wasn't
               | _that_ long ago (ten years ago? Twelve?) my in-laws got
               | basically two identical Chevys of their shittiest
               | possible model for under $10,000 _combined_. Granted I
               | think it was the previous model year, but they weren 't
               | used cars or anything.
        
               | mikestew wrote:
               | 40 years ago, the Yugo was sold in the U. S. for $4500.
               | I'm not questioning the truth of your story, but I think
               | it a poor basis for arguing that cars should be $10K
               | today. The dealer obviously was willing to take a loss to
               | get those Chevys off the lot.
        
               | vundercind wrote:
               | MSRP in 2010 (first I could easily find from around the
               | same period--this was a couple years later) for the worst
               | Chevy Aveo was under $5,000, and MSRP was rather more
               | _aspirational_ (bullshitty) then than it seems to be now,
               | as far as what cars actually sell for. This wasn 't even
               | that big a mark-down from MSRP.
        
               | warner25 wrote:
               | I don't think so... I vividly remember Nissan running
               | commercials for the Versa in late 2008 during the darkest
               | depths of the recession because it was one of the last
               | models selling in the US for under $10k (like $9,990 if
               | you got the manual transmission, etc.). There was also
               | the Smart Fortwo, but it was a two-seater.
               | 
               | This page from KBB says that the 2008 Chevy Aveo "had a
               | starting MSRP of $10,610 when new."
               | https://www.kbb.com/chevrolet/aveo/2008/
               | 
               | However, KBB's page for the 2008 Versa also says that it
               | "had a starting MSRP of $14,025 when new" so maybe you're
               | right? Maybe they're adjusting for inflation? It was a
               | crazy time, obviously, with deflation so maybe there were
               | huge discounts.
        
               | vundercind wrote:
               | Oh weird, maybe my source was fucked then. I did find it
               | generally hard to find any reliable-seeming info about
               | historical car MSRPs, which seems... odd? It's strange
               | the ways the Web fails to provide certain information (or
               | rather, in this case, I expect it's the way modern search
               | engines fail to surface the information we're looking
               | for).
               | 
               | I bought my only-ever (and probably last-ever, as I can't
               | stomach the prices now) new car as a 2012 Nissan Sentra,
               | and I think it was around $14k and was definitely a way,
               | way better car than the infamous Chevy Aveo (and a big
               | step up from the Versa in size, power, et c., for that
               | matter).
        
               | warner25 wrote:
               | Agreed. The Web seems to have a shorter memory than many
               | of us like to think, and ironically seems to be getting
               | shorter.
        
               | mikestew wrote:
               | Your source is wrong. No one was selling new cars in 2010
               | for $5000. (Source: me, and my memory isn't _that_ bad
               | yet.) That 's the reason I brought up the Yugo: in order
               | to sell a new car for $5000 in _1985_ , 25 years prior to
               | your Aveo example, a company had to buy the leftover
               | tooling of the Fiat 128 (one of the biggest pieces of
               | shit I've ever owned) and cut even more corners.
               | 
               | So 25 years on, without even looking anything up, it's
               | pretty reasonable to assume no one was selling a car for
               | that same price _and_ adding airbags and ABS for the U.
               | S. market. But if one insists on a source, Motortrend
               | said they sold for around $12K in 2010:
               | https://www.motortrend.com/cars/chevrolet/aveo/2010/
        
             | josefresco wrote:
             | I posted in another comment above, but I bought a 2023 Kia
             | RIo 5 - excellent car. Small, simple, efficient and IMHO
             | good looking. The Forte and Soul are larger (I also own a
             | Soul)
        
           | gonzo41 wrote:
           | I bring you https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/toyota-
           | hilux-champ-lau...
           | 
           | You can't have it because of existing tarrifs.
        
             | p1necone wrote:
             | Man this thing is awesome. One of my dream cars was always
             | a 90s hilux - I got so disappointed when they started
             | taking design cues from giant American trucks and making
             | them bigger. Single cab with maximized tray space is the
             | most practical option if you actually need to _use_ it as a
             | ute.
        
           | p1necone wrote:
           | I would imagine the most price sensitive buyers wouldn't be
           | looking at the new market at all - there might not be enough
           | demand for "cheap, but still nowhere near as cheap as a
           | second hand car" to make the price point worth targeting as a
           | manufacturer.
        
             | smitelli wrote:
             | They used to, that's the thing. It used to be possible to
             | get barebones A-to-B transportation with zero frills. Power
             | windows/locks, air conditioning, ABS, power steering,
             | automatic transmission--all manner of things that aren't
             | strictly required to get a person to/from where they need
             | to go--could be optioned away if the buyer was very price
             | sensitive.
             | 
             | In 1998 a Chevrolet Metro could be optioned without a radio
             | or rear defogger, even. New purchase price was about $9k
             | (equivalent to $14.5k today). Somebody was buying those,
             | enough for it to be worth the manufacturer's effort to
             | produce it.
             | 
             | I suspect a whole segment of people would be willing to
             | consider a no-frills EV at a comparable price point. Hell,
             | if somebody made something new like a base model 90s Civic
             | into a $15k EV without extra luxury nonsense I don't
             | actually need, I'd be in the dealership tomorrow.
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | > I suspect a whole segment of people would be willing to
               | consider a no-frills EV at a comparable price point.
               | 
               | GM made that play with the Bolt. It was routinely
               | available for just over $20K. Still sat on lots, not
               | getting a lot of love. People shopping for new cars want
               | nicer toys, people who cannot afford new shop used and
               | enjoy getting those nice toys at a discount. I bet the
               | subset of buyers looking for a bare bones no frills
               | brand-new car is quite small.
        
               | warner25 wrote:
               | > I bet the subset of buyers looking for a bare bones no
               | frills brand-new car is quite small.
               | 
               | I think you're correct; we're probably talking about a
               | portion of the weirdly minimalist and frugal crowd
               | pursuing FIRE. Also, most folks in that small subset
               | wouldn't even consider buying a GM product; it's going to
               | be either a Toyota or Honda for them.
               | 
               | Source: I'm one of them, still driving my base-level trim
               | 2008 Prius.
               | 
               | As an aside, I'm reading that the new Bolt sold nearly as
               | well as the Tesla Model S in 2017. Before that, I think
               | the similarly basic Nissan Leaf was the best selling EV.
               | Since then, however, my sense is that EV purchases became
               | more about "fun" (which Tesla has emphasized and
               | provided) than anything else.
        
               | voisin wrote:
               | > People shopping for new cars want nicer toys
               | 
               | It is worth recognizing the role that ZIRP played in all
               | of this. Artificially low interest rates allowed payments
               | on more expensive premium vehicles to be much more
               | manageable for a much larger portion of the population.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | I think this is something people just don't want to
               | admit. It's easy to overlook prices being ridiculous when
               | your monthly payment is all principal. That period of
               | time of ZIRP constantly had me wondering how financing
               | was making money.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | That actual reason for this is that cars are just hyper-
               | reliable. The reason people wanted to buy a new bare
               | bones car over a used nice car is the assumption that the
               | used car would cost you in repairs.
               | 
               | That assumption has been dead since cash for clunkers.
               | Even American made cars will hit 200k miles. There's ZERO
               | value to a "new" car. You would be outright stupid to pay
               | $10k for some probably not possible "bare bones" car when
               | you could just buy the decade old Corolla down the street
               | with 100k miles that's only $5k. It will even have fairly
               | modern safety. This is true even in the modern post-COVID
               | hyper contracted used car market.
        
               | renewedrebecca wrote:
               | The Bolt isn't exactly a good looking car though.
               | 
               | It might sound silly, but not everyone looks at things
               | through a utilitarian view.
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | Sure, but compared with other cars of a similar size,
               | it's not especially ugly, either. And in that segment the
               | utilitarian view definitely dominates, people looking for
               | something more than A->B are going for more prestigious
               | badges.
        
               | nunez wrote:
               | It's a shame that the Bolt got discontinued. It was a
               | great EV. I would have bought one if I didn't have
               | exposure to Tesla first.
        
               | bruckie wrote:
               | You can get a low miles used Chevy Bolt for that much,
               | and it's significantly nicer than most 90's Civics (has
               | AC, Android Auto and CarPlay, cruise control, satellite
               | radio, power doors and locks, keyless remote, etc.).
               | 
               | Not new, but does that matter so much?
        
               | JohnBooty wrote:
               | I want that too, but:                   Hell, if somebody
               | made something new like a base          model 90s Civic
               | into a $15k EV without extra          luxury nonsense I
               | don't actually need
               | 
               | They could strip all that stuff out, but it wouldn't
               | really reduce the cost of the car by as much as we want
               | it to.
               | 
               | The cost of much of the "luxury nonsense" like power
               | windows and heated seats is heavily amortized since the
               | tooling etc. is shared with the more expensive vehicles,
               | and the actual material costs are low.
               | 
               | Think about it; heated seats are just some simple heating
               | coils. You can get something functionally equivalent that
               | plugs into your cigarette lighter adapter for like $10
               | from Amazon. It ain't adding that much to the cost of
               | your car.
        
               | smitelli wrote:
               | I sometimes think about power locks. I usually drive
               | alone, and only lock/unlock the driver door. I had no
               | problems flipping the little lock switch, and using the
               | key outside was no problem because it's right next to the
               | door handle I'm going to use anyway.
               | 
               | Electrifying the locks led to the idea of RF transmitters
               | as a secondary switch. Now there's hardware for that, and
               | a radio receiver. Gotta make it flash the lights, so
               | that's another relay and a wiring harness to the lighting
               | system. Gotta beep the horn too, more wires. Maybe make
               | it so you can hold the button to crack the power windows
               | on a hot day; it's just wire.
               | 
               | Fast forward 30 years, now everything talks to everything
               | and I'd argue they don't want to have to maintain a bunch
               | of different firmware configurations to support fine-
               | grained dealership options.
               | 
               | That's my hunch anyway.
        
               | HeyLaughingBoy wrote:
               | Not only that, but there's a cost to variable
               | manufacturing. It's easy to build thousands of the same
               | thing. It's harder (read: more expensive) to build a
               | thousand of one thing, and another thousand of a slight
               | variation of that thing and yet another thousand of
               | another variation...
        
               | coredog64 wrote:
               | Specific to GM, those low cost barebones cars were a
               | regulatory hack for CAFE. Selling 3 Metros made up for
               | high dollar, low efficiency Camaros or Cadillacs.
               | 
               | With the move to trucks and ethanol credits, those hacks
               | are no longer cost-effective.
        
           | lmm wrote:
           | IIRC the US has some ass-backwards fuel economy laws that
           | mean it's essentially illegal to produce small cars.
           | 
           | Also there's enough demand for high-margin cars to max out
           | available production capacity, and would you want to be
           | making major investments in ICE car production right now?
        
             | voisin wrote:
             | I don't think companies are penalized for producing small
             | cars so much as larger vehicles like trucks and SUVs are
             | incentivized to become larger to sit outside the rules as
             | commercial vehicles even though everyone knows that only a
             | small percentage are used for commercial purposes.
        
               | millerm wrote:
               | Exactly. The large gas guzzling, glorified grocery
               | getters are just an easy out for manufacturers to subvert
               | the requirements made for smaller vehicles (which was
               | completely short-sited, or it was planned by lobbyists).
               | It was simply easier for these companies to continue
               | doing what they were doing with what they had. Give a
               | company and alternative that costs them nothing, then
               | they will do nothing. We need a new fuel standard. A
               | truck or SUV purchased after <some date> then you pay an
               | extra $<some dollar amount> per gallon. Yeah, I know the
               | implementation is a problem, but I am simply throwing out
               | an idea. Perhaps they yearly registration is now an extra
               | $2000/year. They already screw EV owners in many states.
               | I pay an extra $220 a year for my car, and that is
               | ridiculous. I have owned my car for 5 1/2 years, and I
               | have 24k miles on it. This tax is completely unfair and
               | has no basis in reality for "road tax".
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | > I don't think companies are penalized for producing
               | small cars
               | 
               | They are. CAFE target formulas have the footprint of the
               | vehicle(s) in the denominator. Larger footprint = easier
               | fuel economy targets
               | 
               | https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/cafe-
               | ghg_my_2012...
        
             | josefresco wrote:
             | I drive a 2023 Kida Rio 5 which is small, simple and fuel
             | efficient (combined 40 MPG). Kia is killing it though,
             | because not enough Americans bought them. They (Americans)
             | instead buy the larger Forte. I specifically told them I
             | wanted the Rio 5, and after a few calls they found one (1!)
             | and proceeded to mark it up $2k - _still_ worth it.
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | Not only do Americans tend to buy larger vehicles, but
               | CAFE regulations encourage automakers to increase the
               | footprint (area between the wheels) of the cars they
               | offer. This is another reason the Rio is (and other small
               | cars are) discontinued.
               | 
               | CAFE regulations (in a nutshell) require automakers'
               | vehicles to meet a particular fuel economy _per_ size of
               | footprint, averaged across the vehicles they sell. So,
               | they can meet the standards either by increasing the
               | footprint of the vehicle, or by increasing the fuel
               | economy of their vehicles, or both.
        
             | weberer wrote:
             | Its not fuel economy laws, its the highway safety laws.
             | Light cars are usually more efficient.
             | 
             | Maybe you're thinking of the strict emission laws regarding
             | NOx and SOx that prevent diesel cars.
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | > Light cars are usually more efficient.
               | 
               | That's true, but US fuel economy standards don't actually
               | require vehicles to be more fuel efficient in a direct
               | way. They require vehicles to be a certain fuel
               | efficiency _for their footprint_.
               | 
               | Unintuitively, while making a car larger doesn't make it
               | more fuel efficient, it might make it better meet US fuel
               | economy standards.
        
               | EricE wrote:
               | Nope, manufacturers get penalized by CAFE regulations if
               | they have too many cars of certain types. It's batshit
               | insane.
        
             | _heimdall wrote:
             | Unless I'm mistaken, a big reason we don't have smaller
             | cars in the US (other than consumer demand) is related to
             | safety regulations rather than fuel economy laws.
             | 
             | > would you want to be making major investments in ICE car
             | production right now?
             | 
             | I would if I were a car manufacturer, at least in addition
             | to other projects that I may have investing in alternative
             | fuels. I haven't dug deeply into all the issues VW is
             | dealing with today, but it does seem at least in part due
             | to an over investment in electric vehicles.
             | 
             | If I were really in that situation, though, I'd personally
             | be investing heavily in designs more similar to the Chevy
             | Volt with an electric drivetrain and onboard gas generator.
             | Range anxiety goes away without having to pack a massive
             | battery pack in the car, and the gas engine is much less
             | stressed meaning easier maintenance and a longer life.
        
               | snozolli wrote:
               | _Unless I 'm mistaken, a big reason we don't have smaller
               | cars in the US (other than consumer demand) is related to
               | safety regulations rather than fuel economy laws._
               | 
               | It's a combination of everything. Trucks keep getting
               | bigger because it's how they game the fuel efficiency
               | requirements. Small cars get bigger because of safety
               | standards. Consumers in the US don't really want small
               | cars, partly because we've gotten bigger a partly because
               | it's terrifying to be on the road with the aforementioned
               | trucks.
               | 
               | Similarly, cars seem really boring these days because
               | most people want something _big enough_ (i.e. CUV like
               | the RAV4), and because safety standards for things like
               | pedestrian impact have constrained the designers. So, we
               | end up with a bunch of CUVs that I can 't tell apart.
        
             | WorldMaker wrote:
             | It's never been illegal to produce small cars in the US.
             | It's a tragedy of the commons that the more over-sized cars
             | on the road the more intimidated the average driver and the
             | more compensation in the sizes of other cars to "keep up".
             | Over-sized SUVs and trucks aren't penalized _enough_ for
             | their domination and essentially destruction of the commons
             | space.
             | 
             | That's also what fuels some of the demand for high-margin
             | cars, because of the perverse incentive that over-sized
             | delivers higher margins. People will be too easily
             | convinced to pay extra (generally at linear relationship)
             | for size and there's not a linear relationship in size
             | versus margins.
        
               | PittleyDunkin wrote:
               | > It's never been illegal to produce small cars in the US
               | 
               | I think they're referring to the practice of making cars
               | larger to pass as trucks so they are faced with more lax
               | fuel-efficiency standards.
        
               | WorldMaker wrote:
               | The biggest reason that works is that most states dropped
               | per-axle weight taxes for trucks (which would much more
               | directly pay for road wear-and-tear than gas taxes, and
               | which is why such taxes existed in the first place) and
               | the ones that didn't carved out too many "personal
               | vehicle" loopholes for trucks. It's a curious lack of
               | _disincentives_ (and enforcement of such) for larger
               | vehicles more than  "small cars are illegal". Things like
               | CAFE standards could have been met in smarter ways if
               | they were properly incentivized. (Plus CAFE standards
               | were in part set with an expectation of not "double
               | dipping" versus vehicle weight taxes. That the vehicle
               | weight taxes disappeared is the smoking gun, in some
               | ways.) Small cars aren't incentivized enough, larger
               | vehicles aren't disincentivized enough. Especially with
               | today's wear and tear on roads, the states complaining
               | that EVs are dropping gas taxes too fast, it's a wild
               | shame that we aren't seeing a faster return to per-axle
               | vehicle taxes.
        
               | kevin_thibedeau wrote:
               | Even without the bogus classifications, the EPA emissions
               | regulations are inversely proportional to the footprint
               | of the car. That rewards manufacturers for not offering
               | small cars.
               | 
               | The "light truck" designation is made on the basis of
               | features like cargo capacity and ground clearance. The
               | Subaru Outback was properly classified as a car until the
               | smaller PT Cruiser got its truck designation and they
               | justifiably complained.
        
           | fragmede wrote:
           | Because there's no incentive to. The invisible hand of the
           | free market only encourages a race to the bottom when the
           | incentives are aligned. With the ridiculously high capex
           | required to become an automaker these days, why would someone
           | come in, just to make $3,000 per car, in a saturated market,
           | chock _full_ of regulations, to make money on the bottom end
           | of a market where existing manufacturers can easily just
           | undercut you the second you get any traction in the market.
           | 
           | Manufacturers make more money off selling luxury cars. The
           | poors can just buy used luxury cars for all they care. We see
           | the same problem with housing and luxury vs spartan options.
           | The spartan option exists, but only begrudgingly so.
        
           | tagami wrote:
           | A 2025 Toyota Corolla hybrid is ~ $25k
        
           | AlotOfReading wrote:
           | There's no way to sell a good, cheap car without also
           | cannibalizing your high margin sales and the dealers wouldn't
           | want to sell it anyway. The vast majority of vehicle cost
           | goes to:
           | 
           | 1) amortizing the assembly line and upfront platform design
           | costs
           | 
           | 2) the raw materials of the basic car components, e.g. power
           | train, chassis, and body
           | 
           | 3) getting the car into consumer hands (distribution fees,
           | taxes, advertising, dealership margin, etc).
           | 
           | Everything else like labor and upgraded trims works out to a
           | relatively small percentage of the overall price, often under
           | 20%.
           | 
           | Since you can't make enough impact by cutting amenities, you
           | have to cut one of the listed things. You mostly can't build
           | things more efficiently than major manufacturers do (though
           | Tesla is quite good here), so that's out. You can't shave 50%
           | off the basic materials costs because you run into basic
           | FMVSS issues. Kia's strategy is to get as close to this line
           | as they can though. That means you need to cut from the third
           | category. No company wants don't want to cut their own
           | margin, so that's out. Manufacturers can't work around the
           | dealers by law, so they need to keep some dealer margin.
           | Manufacturers can't stop advertising because the advertising
           | department has significant political power and can get anyone
           | proposing that fired. Manufacturers can't avoid taxes for
           | consumers either.
           | 
           | The only real paths to cheaper cars involve opening the
           | market to competitors that aren't limited like this, for
           | instance foreign companies that don't need dealers and are
           | okay accepting lower margins and not advertising.
        
           | trhway wrote:
           | >why isn't this a screaming opportunity
           | 
           | with the American consumer buying 15M cars a year at those
           | average $50K there isn't an opportunity for the low end. And
           | if such market really appears - i.e. if the American consumer
           | would hit hard economic patch and would really need cheap car
           | - it will be at any moment filled by cheap Chinese EVs.
        
           | jsight wrote:
           | There are small, ~20k cars in the US, but this isn't where
           | most of the sales volume is. Trax starts at ~20k and isn't
           | even that small.
        
           | rsynnott wrote:
           | Looking at what's available in Ireland at the moment, in the
           | 20-30k range there's a Nissan, a VW (though it's the ancient
           | e-Up, due to be replaced by the i2 any day now), a BYD, a
           | Fiat, an MG, and an Ora (tragically no longer under the names
           | "Good Cat", or "Funky Cat", presumably because Ora got around
           | to hiring someone who had heard of marketing).
           | 
           | There are a bunch more in this price range due to launch next
           | year.
           | 
           | Cheap-ish electric cars exist, they're just not, generally,
           | suited to US consumer preferences.
        
             | darknavi wrote:
             | > Cheap-ish electric cars exist, they're just not,
             | generally, suited to US consumer preferences.
             | 
             | Some of the brands you listed aren't even really available
             | in the US, or if they are that are 100% marked up with
             | tariffs.
             | 
             | Big cars are definitely a thing in the US, but I'd kill for
             | a ~$20k smaller EV hatch commuter to swap out my Model 3.
        
               | klooney wrote:
               | The small hatch EVs have generally had ~200 mile ranges,
               | which is a little tough
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | If the cost is low enough, compromise on range becomes
               | acceptable. I might buy a small, cheap EV that has range
               | enough to handle my typical daily driving. But if I'm
               | paying Tesla prices, it will need range to handle
               | virtually all of my driving.
        
               | darknavi wrote:
               | That'd be perfect for me to be honest. We have a Tesla
               | Model Y which we can road trip in. I'm just looking for a
               | slick, efficient commuter. I normally only charge my
               | Model 3 to ~60%, which is ~150 miles of range anyways.
        
           | eschneider wrote:
           | Low price normally requires lower margins, so for the same
           | risk, you're making less money than with a higher end model.
           | Make it up in volume, you say? Well, that increases the risk
           | that you don't sell enough and end up with a loss.
           | 
           | Ultimately, you CAN "win" by doing really well with a low-end
           | model, but the chance of losing big is there, too.
        
           | chessgecko wrote:
           | The real reason is that it's basically impossible to produce
           | a cheap new car that is a better deal than a Toyota with 80k
           | miles on it.
        
         | navane wrote:
         | Is the car 10k more expensive because of inflation or is the
         | inflation so high because the car costs 10k more?
        
           | coding123 wrote:
           | yes
        
           | rootusrootus wrote:
           | Is it actually $10K more expensive? The F150 Lightning I just
           | bought was cheaper than the hybrid version I was looking at
           | buying. The Tesla Model 3 & Y seem to be priced pretty
           | competitively, as well.
        
           | peab wrote:
           | I had the same thought. You can actually look up the
           | inflation data by category:
           | 
           | https://www.perplexity.ai/search/find-me-the-cpi-
           | inflation-d...
           | 
           | New cars actually match the total average inflation the
           | closest of any categories (22.3% for new cars vs 22.1% all
           | items). Also interesting to note that food is up 30.7%,
           | transport is up 39.5 % and shelter is up 27.6% in the past 5
           | years!
        
           | jerf wrote:
           | One of the best understandings of inflation is to use the
           | mathematical concept of "equality" on those. They're two ways
           | of phrasing the same thing.
           | 
           | A lot of people do a lot of bad thinking when they say "oh,
           | well, inflation is umptybumpkins percent, so the fact that
           | cars are that much more expensive is 'just' inflation, and
           | thus isn't anything".
           | 
           | But inflation _is_ prices going up. When the various sources
           | release  "how large inflation is", they are telling you "this
           | is how much prices went up". Ignoring prices going up because
           | "oh, the prices went up because of inflation" is basically
           | using the thing's own existence to argue that it doesn't
           | exist, which, while abstractly sort of impressive, is not
           | strong thinking.
           | 
           | There are some arguments about what causes prices to go up,
           | but that's a separate question.
        
             | Majromax wrote:
             | > One of the best understandings of inflation is to use the
             | mathematical concept of "equality" on those. They're two
             | ways of phrasing the same thing.
             | 
             | They're not quite the same thing. All other things equal,
             | if a price increase is "just" inflation then it takes the
             | same number of hours of work to buy the car (or
             | equivalently, the car is worth the same number of loaves of
             | bread).
             | 
             | The alternative is that car prices have increased relative
             | to other goods. This could happen through higher-
             | quality/more featureful/bigger cars (which would be removed
             | from the inflation calculation), or it could come because
             | of some idiosyncratic feature of the industry like the car-
             | chip shortage during covid.
        
           | kjksf wrote:
           | Inflation is a shit metric because it's easily manipulated.
           | 
           | The cost of a GB of hard drive is failing spectacularly. The
           | price of health care went up much more than the price of
           | eggs. So what is the "real" inflation?
           | 
           | Government gets to pick what they use to define inflation so
           | they can manipulate "inflation" numbers. And manipulate they
           | do.
           | 
           | What you should look at is money printing: how much money did
           | the government print. This is about 8% yearly for US.
           | 
           | This money debasement is eventually reflected in prices.
           | 
           | Some things get cheaper, because we can produce them more
           | efficiently (like hard drives). Some things get even more
           | expensive than 8% because we produce them less efficiently
           | (health care insurance or college diplomas).
           | 
           | So to answer your question: cars costs more mostly because
           | the government prints money, which devalues your dollars and
           | car makers are not getting more efficient at making cars to
           | counter currency debasement.
        
         | jmward01 wrote:
         | Privacy is in my top two concerns for EVs (and any vehicle
         | purchase I make). I am increasingly avoiding every privacy
         | destroying option out there, be it cars or services in general.
         | It is, unfortunately, becoming nearly impossible to be privacy
         | aware but the more resistance people put up the better chance
         | we have of maintaining some privacy.
        
           | worik wrote:
           | > Privacy is in my top two concerns for EVs
           | 
           | Yes.
           | 
           | But it does rue out every single modern car on the market.
           | 
           | Very frustrating
        
             | jmward01 wrote:
             | I always buy used so I have some time left, but not much.
             | When I bought my last vehicle the person had one of those
             | insurance GPS devices in it. I can't even begin to
             | understand why anyone would do that. It is so obviously
             | going to be used against the driver and it is also obvious
             | that it will eventually become 'required' and that just
             | depresses me.
        
               | aqfamnzc wrote:
               | Money. The insurance company gives a discount. And
               | honestly, for someone who doesn't share my same strong
               | values for privacy, I don't blame them!
        
               | jmward01 wrote:
               | The point about the insurance GPS is that they will
               | eventually use it against the person. 'You were going
               | 5mph over the speed limit before the crash...' that kind
               | of thing. Giving them more information will just lead to
               | the consumer being hurt. Oh, and they will clearly sell
               | that info to anyone they can get to buy it of course.
               | That part isn't great either.
        
               | HeyLaughingBoy wrote:
               | > eventually
               | 
               | No one thinks about "eventually." That's a long time and
               | may never happen to them. "Now" is more important.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | If you drive the speed limit and otherwise follow all
               | those things they teach you in drivers ed but almost
               | nobody does once they pass their drivers test those will
               | save you money. The average driver is really bad.
        
               | dingaling wrote:
               | Not at all - telematics schemes also penalise subjective
               | measures such as "over-revving" and "cornering with too
               | much lateral g".
               | 
               | Royal Mail drivers in the UK found themselves being
               | disciplined for exceeding telematics thresholds when the
               | company transitioned back to petrol-engined vans, from
               | diesel, because they are driven in a very different
               | manner.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Those are things I was taught not to do in drivers ed. I
               | don't know how the UK compared. For that matter, I took
               | drivers ed 30+ years ago, and I don't know what all has
               | changed.
        
           | blackjack_ wrote:
           | Not good privacy by default, but as a hack you can also just
           | buy a Bolt EV for like ~14k or so, then disconnect the
           | location tracking antennae which takes like 30 mins of
           | fiddling and $12 of parts.
        
           | rootusrootus wrote:
           | I don't think EVs are any worse than any other car. My F150
           | Lightning has precisely as much telemetry as the ICE version.
           | Which is to say, more than I'd like. But I realize most
           | buyers don't care.
        
           | vel0city wrote:
           | > Privacy is in my top two concerns for EVs
           | 
           | Any bit of telemetry in a modern EV is also in a modern ICE.
           | There's no reason to hate on EV's for telemetry, you have to
           | hate on the entire modern auto industry.
        
         | torginus wrote:
         | I honestly don't get it - the median income in the US is like
         | $35k - assuming people don't want to drive vehicles older than
         | a decade, do people really spend a sixth of their total income
         | on cars?
         | 
         | In Europe the numbers are even worse. I'm fairly convinced only
         | rich people and businesses buy new cars
        
           | epistasis wrote:
           | A lot of people buy used cars rather than new cars. The
           | wealthiest buy the new cars, eat the cost of most of the
           | depreciation, then sell them.
           | 
           | If we had a functioning housing market, you'd see something
           | pretty similar there too. The wealthiest would be the ones
           | paying for nearly all the new construction, instead of
           | driving up the cost of housing for everyone else.
        
           | vel0city wrote:
           | Median incomes of single earners get pretty skewed from
           | people willingly working part-time or low-income jobs as
           | secondary income instead of primary income. I usually prefer
           | analyzing things on household income for this reason. Think a
           | grandpa working a part-time gig as a greeter at Walmart while
           | going back to a multi-generational household or a stay-at-
           | home parent working a part-time remote call center job while
           | the kids are in school or a teenager working a part-time job.
           | All of these positions would pull pretty small amounts of
           | overall yearly income but chances are they're not the sole
           | source of wealth/income they have access to.
           | 
           | The median _household_ income is ~$75k. There 's ~131M
           | households in the US. This means there are 65M households
           | making more than $75k/yr.
           | 
           | But yes, generally speaking wealthier people are the ones
           | buying new cars with a lot of people buying used models.
        
           | hansvm wrote:
           | > do people really spend a sixth of their total income on
           | cars
           | 
           | Yes. It's a huge expense for a lot of Americans. Either the
           | primary expense, or just behind housing.
           | 
           | > assuming people don't want to drive vehicles older than a
           | decade
           | 
           | That's not a great assumption, especially if you're looking
           | at people with less money. The normal lifespan of a car is
           | 15-25yrs, and _somebody_ is driving those cars.
           | 
           | As you suspect though, the flow of new vehicles largely goes
           | into wealthier people (average incomes in the $100k range),
           | and after 6-10yrs the used cars trickle down to everyone else
           | and live ~20yrs in total. There exist a number of exceptions
           | (e.g., people getting a new car for reliability and not
           | realizing that you could replace the engine and transmission
           | three times over for the extra premium they're paying --
           | trying to do the right thing and make a fiscally responsible
           | decision but accidentally doing something more expensive),
           | but those aren't the norm.
        
         | jillesvangurp wrote:
         | Lack of demand is the conventional explanation. But I think it
         | is a bit of lazy and misleading one. I think there's plenty of
         | demand for cheap EVs. But there's a problem with US
         | manufacturing not being able to deliver those. Supply chains
         | aren't there. Manufacturing capability and capacity isn't
         | there. Etc.
         | 
         | And of course the EV market is still actually growing in the
         | US. It's just that companies like Tesla, Kia/Hyundai, and other
         | foreign companies with factories in the US are picking up the
         | slack left by the likes of GM, Ford, Stellantis, etc.
         | 
         | Protectionism in the form of tariffs and incentives is making
         | things worse. It's temporarily succeeding at keeping
         | competition out of the door but it's failing at making local
         | industry more competitive. Especially in the international
         | market where US companies enjoy neither the benefits of import
         | tariffs nor incentives. They have to compete on merit with the
         | likes of BYD there. And that's obviously going to cause some
         | issues.
         | 
         | Dropping incentives and tariffs would obviously be short term
         | disruptive but I don't think it changes the outcome long term.
         | Which is that GM either catches up or falls over (wouldn't be
         | the first time). Either way, them delaying investments in EVs
         | is not a sign of them adapting. Same for Ford, which has the
         | same problem and is doing the same. Same for Stellantis. They
         | are favoring short term profits over a long term plan. That's
         | because protectionism is temporarily excusing them from having
         | to compete.
         | 
         | That's not something they can dodge long term. Somebody will
         | step up if it is not them.
        
           | Pxtl wrote:
           | > I think there's plenty of demand for cheap EVs. But there's
           | a problem with US manufacturing not being able to deliver
           | those.
           | 
           | How much of that has to do with the USA's extreme needs for
           | range and size?
           | 
           | There are places I'd be happy to drive a subcompact with a
           | 300km range (eg. the Byd Dolphin), but most of the USA that
           | kind of vehicle wouldn't be safe or practical. That's an
           | awful lot of expensive battery-mass the Byd Dolphin doesn't
           | have to pay for.
        
             | jillesvangurp wrote:
             | > How much of that has to do with the USA's extreme needs
             | for range and size?
             | 
             | Very little as far as I can see; this is a simple lack of
             | competition. Most of the really long range vehicles are
             | super premium products that are sold in relatively low
             | numbers to people who can afford them rather than to people
             | that need that kind of range (or rather thing that they do,
             | it is a bit irrational in many cases).
             | 
             | Most US manufacturers simply compensate their lack of
             | efficiency with more battery and cost. It allows them to
             | keep up with e.g. Tesla and Kia in terms of range. So,
             | they'll put in 85kwh instead of 65kwh. Or even more.
             | 
             | Same range but at a higher cost. But of course the flip-
             | side is that Tesla can just effortlessly undercut their
             | pricing whenever they are having surpluses. They sell the
             | same cars for much less abroad.
             | 
             | It's also telling that Tesla has sold more Cybertrucks last
             | quarter than all other EV trucks combined. It's not a very
             | practical truck. But it looks cool. They've barely even
             | started to ramp up production and they are already running
             | circles around their competitors. No sign of a lack of
             | demand there. Lots of signs of an outclassed competition
             | that is simply not able to keep up.
        
       | aprilthird2021 wrote:
       | Something has to disconnect here. Everyone complains that
       | everything costs so much, but the average Americans' paycheck is
       | not rising the same way, so they can try all they want to sell
       | $95k electric vehicles because of thin margins for cheaper
       | products, but if purchasing power doesn't rise with inflation,
       | then that market that "sucks" is going to be the only real market
       | one day...
        
         | deadbabe wrote:
         | Increasingly expensive products are afforded through
         | innovations in financing.
        
         | warner25 wrote:
         | Yeah, I think the pendulum swings back and forth. My
         | recollection of the 2007-2009 recession, with $4 gas and the
         | failure of GM, was that it spurred a lot of interest and
         | innovation in smaller, more efficient, economy cars after many
         | years of the automakers pushing (and people buying) larger and
         | less efficient trucks and SUVs. I think we're at an extreme
         | point in the cycle again now with American automakers all but
         | abandoning the compact and midsize economy car segments. At
         | some point, things will dry up and they'll need to compete with
         | the Toyota Corolla and Honda Civic again.
        
           | 9x39 wrote:
           | I think you're right about pendulums here, but we might be
           | about to see a US auto maker vs China auto maker inflection
           | point like I read about in the 1980s with US vs Japan.
           | 
           | I watching this video which lays out some fundamental diffs
           | between US companies, like GM and Chinese companies, like
           | BYD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXvcwM977D0 * Short term
           | vs long term focus * .gov subsidies stronger in key markets
           | in CN * CN companies extremely rapid in development (as low
           | as 1.5 yr vs 6 yr in the US) * Lower wages and input costs
           | 
           | Things will probably have to get worse before they get worse.
           | Corporate people know the machine (public traded US auto
           | makers) keeps lumbering forward without change until it
           | can't, and all handouts, bailouts, and other tricks have been
           | played.
        
             | 015a wrote:
             | There's only one reason why US cars are more expensive than
             | CN cars: People will pay it. All that other stuff is window
             | dressing. The US is way, way better at financial
             | engineering than China; we can sell an $80,000 Tahoe to a
             | single mom between jobs on zero down and 10% APR, somehow
             | she'll take that deal, and somehow the system doesn't
             | explode into a fiery deathball; so you get $80,000 Tahoes.
             | That's it.
             | 
             | Short-term vs long-term focus means nothing. Government
             | subsidies run out. Rapid development is easy when its a
             | first generation product with no customers. Lower wages
             | means fewer of your own people can afford it (though it
             | does help with export pricing to richer first world
             | countries... what's that word I'm looking for... it starts
             | with a T, I heard an orange man say it recently. eh
             | probably nothing)
             | 
             | The 2008-2023 US economy was basically the strongest
             | national economy in the history of humanity; but,
             | obviously, that's changing. And no, I'm not doomering about
             | a mother-of-all-crashes. The world is just getting more
             | realistic, as it should.
        
               | 9x39 wrote:
               | > Short-term vs long-term focus means nothing.
               | 
               | Manufacturing, generally? Solar? Batteries?
               | Semiconductors? Cyber espionage/warfare? I think those
               | are more than nothing that China has had a demonstrable
               | long term strategy in which benefits them at our expense.
               | 
               | Also, great point about financialization in the US. Do
               | you think if that dam breaks, US auto makers come back to
               | planet Earth instead of chasing what seems to be
               | exclusively high-margin cars only affordable by credit?
        
               | 015a wrote:
               | Maybe their strategy will pan out, but generally any
               | economy which critically depends on a restless and
               | despondent class of basically slave labor (and, in some
               | cases, _actual_ slave labor) isn 't going to sustain
               | itself. As they said in Silicon Valley (the HBO show)
               | like 8 years ago: "There's no New Bangladesh; there's
               | just Bangladesh."; China's population wants upward social
               | mobility in a way that's basically just westernization.
               | On the flip side, they have a government that wants the
               | economic benefits of a cheap labor pool, they want to be
               | a cheap western manufacturing destination, and they have
               | the surveillance and police state to push the issue
               | further than western democracies would; a scary combo.
               | 
               | The other unrelated point I try to impress on people: You
               | can assert that China's lead in manufacturing solar
               | panels, batteries, etc is indicative that they're "ahead"
               | of us, or whatever. You sure? I don't know what job you
               | have right now, but the US _was_ a destination for high
               | tech manufacturing many decades ago. We largely moved
               | past that. We make poorer countries do that for us now.
               | How is it _desirable_ that America become better at, I
               | don 't know, mining lithium? Are those jobs that we
               | _want_ our population to have? Versus what are clearly
               | higher-margin email jobs? China manufacturing solar
               | panels to sell us is our benefit, their expense; their
               | economy is built on attaching a 2% margin on physical
               | goods, ours is attaching a 200% margin on services,
               | software, and financialization we build on top of those
               | physical goods. Every economist on the planet would
               | agree, you want to live in the second one. Lithium mines
               | suck. Assembly lines suck.
               | 
               | But even looking beyond that: The US has an unemployment
               | rate of like 3% right now. You can open the world's
               | biggest solar factory out in Iowa; good luck finding
               | workers to staff it. The US is not "behind" on
               | manufacturing; we LEFT it behind, for good reason.
               | 
               | > Do you think if that dam breaks, US auto makers come
               | back to planet Earth instead of chasing what seems to be
               | exclusively high-margin cars only affordable by credit?
               | 
               | It doesn't seem to me like the problems that the
               | automotive world are going to face over the next five
               | years will be isolated to US manufacturers; its going to
               | be global. Its going to get harder to financially-
               | engineer your way to higher margins and revenue. That
               | means prices need to come down. But, prices are higher
               | because consumers want these nicer cars, nicer materials,
               | there's a lot of cost in mandated safety features and
               | safety engineering as well, not to mention all the export
               | controls and tariffs Trump is threatening. So, how do
               | they get cost down? That's the challenge.
        
               | schaefer wrote:
               | In general, I'm not an anti-regulation person. But
               | American regulations on cars add cost compared to other
               | countries.
               | 
               | One specific example: mandatory back up cameras (and a
               | monitor to watch them on).
        
               | RankingMember wrote:
               | With the size of American vehicles these days and the
               | reduced visibility inherent, I'm all for mandatory backup
               | cameras. Some trucks even have _forward_ cameras now
               | because their front-ends are so tall that they have a
               | large front blind-spot.
        
         | 015a wrote:
         | I think the disconnect is maybe just in the title: Lucid is
         | obviously just trying to be the next Mercedes. Duh, of course
         | they don't make a cheap car (how much did Lucid pay for this ad
         | in the WSJ?); but their competitors kind of do. Tesla literally
         | told their shareholders during the most recent earnings call
         | that "more affordable models are coming in the first half of
         | 2025". Jim Farley has spoken on how one of the reasons Ford's
         | EVs are still rather expensive is because they clean-roomed
         | much of the assembly for them to better compete with Tesla, so
         | while ICE cars have a century of process optimization behind
         | them, their EVs aren't at that same level... yet.
         | 
         | Its just clickbait paid by Lucid to make their $90,000 cars
         | seem reasonable because, well geeze, no one is making cheap EVs
         | anyone. Wrong: Everyone is trying to, and its very obvious that
         | this is direction the market needs to go in (just look at the
         | depreciation on modern Teslas, new cars cannot compete with
         | what is happening in the used market).
        
           | aprilthird2021 wrote:
           | I wouldn't pay for anyone to write this, if I were Lucid...
           | 
           | Mercedes sold their cars by having better engineering
           | (perceived by customers). Does Lucid have better batteries?
           | Almost certainly not.
        
             | _jss wrote:
             | I'm pretty sure they do, though. Lucid owns Atieva, the
             | company supplying the batteries for Formula E. What they've
             | learned through the many seasons directly goes back into
             | the vehicle's battery.
             | 
             | https://lucidmotors.com/media-room/atieva-powers-
             | season-6-fo...
        
             | NickM wrote:
             | I am a bit skeptical of Lucid's ability to grow into
             | profitability, but they do have excellent engineering.
             | Their EVs have some of the best efficiency and range on the
             | market.
        
           | NoGravitas wrote:
           | Tesla has kind of been lying about "more affordable models
           | are coming" for about as long as they've been in business,
           | though.
        
         | derbOac wrote:
         | The problem IMHO is a variety of US policies have artificially
         | taken out that cheap market in all kinds of domains through
         | protectionist policies like rent seeking, monopolies, and
         | tariffs. So, for example, tariffs hurt the emergence of a cheap
         | EV market.
         | 
         | The solutions for this in general don't line up nicely with any
         | of the major party platforms, at least in the US -- major
         | deregulation of certain areas in certain ways, aggressive
         | antitrust enforcement, and dismantling of tariffs, possibly
         | combined with government incentivizing of competition in
         | certain areas, at least for awhile. It feels like candidates
         | and parties demonize one or more of these things and
         | overemphasize other things, or implement some of these things
         | in the wrong ways, like they're all mutually exclusive.
        
       | jogjayr wrote:
       | Money quote:
       | 
       | "As automakers were profit maximizing during the supply chain
       | crisis era, you are going to prioritize the bigger vehicles, the
       | more expensive vehicles with their higher margins," Tyson Jominy,
       | vice president of data and analytics at J.D. Power, told me. "Now
       | we just don't have" these cheaper models.
        
         | lenerdenator wrote:
         | Ding ding ding.
         | 
         | We have a winner.
         | 
         | There's a bunch of free riders in the form of shareholders
         | artificially driving up the price of goods.
        
           | Cumpiler69 wrote:
           | _> There's a bunch of free riders in the form of shareholders
           | artificially driving up the price of goods.
           | 
           | _
           | 
           | Isn't this a natural consequence of capitalism in entrenched
           | industries?
        
             | lenerdenator wrote:
             | Why yes. Yes it is.
             | 
             | Which is why you don't put shareholders first in line for
             | revenues.
        
         | mobilene wrote:
         | This. Yep, automakers have deliberately gone after higher
         | profit margins per vehicle. Huge-volume, lower-cost cars are
         | slowly going away. Get one while you can, if that's your thing.
        
           | engineer_22 wrote:
           | US Congress has mandated a growing list of advanced features,
           | leading to complex vehicles, complex supply chains, and
           | higher sticker prices.
        
             | Iulioh wrote:
             | That's not the problem there.
        
               | engineer_22 wrote:
               | OK
        
             | kjkjadksj wrote:
             | Nissan has figured out how to comply and sell a Versa for
             | just $17k like its 15 years ago still.
        
             | asadotzler wrote:
             | If that were true, you wouldn't be able to buy multiple
             | vehicles for under $18,000, which would have been a $10,000
             | vehicle at the turn of the century. How many $10,000 cars
             | do you remember from 2000? I was in the market for my 3rd
             | car by then and I can tell you the answer was zero. Cars
             | are actually cheaper today than they've ever been DESPITE
             | the increased safety and emissions features and you are
             | exactly wrong in your claim.
             | 
             | The fact that most cars are _priced_ at $60K doesn 't mean
             | cars _cost_ that much to make, it means that the US car
             | makers have decided to stop caring about poor people,
             | leaving them to the used market while they go luxury,
             | chasing ever higher margins from a smaller and smaller but
             | ever-wealthier consumer.
             | 
             | Again, if safety or emissions requirements drove up prices,
             | how is it legal for Nissan, Mitsubishi, Kia/Hundai and
             | others to sell cars that cost under $10K in 2000 dollars
             | when you couldn't buy new in 2000 for anywhere close to
             | that? Just because Ford and GM _WONT_ compete there doesn
             | 't mean competing there is cost prohibitive.
        
         | packetlost wrote:
         | You also leave out the emissions exceptions for vehicles above
         | a certain size, which also incentivizes manufacturers to build
         | and sell larger vehicles.
        
         | FergusArgyll wrote:
         | Why did they just start "maximizing profit" recently?
         | 
         | Did all the bad bad no good CEO's just read The Prince or
         | something?
        
           | kjkjadksj wrote:
           | Look at fords lineup now. No sedan. Its straight up
           | embarrasing if you are the first lemming to start burning
           | furniture to save on heat. But if the entire industry has
           | been doing just this since 2008 then you are the fool for not
           | playing the game your investors expect from you. Never mind
           | how you might fare 10 years from now. Quarterly thinking
           | dominates.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | They started long ago. Ford himself was doing that. However
           | what makes for maximum profit has changed over time. As cars
           | last longer more and more people are not buying new cars so
           | they have to make cars for the people left. If you want me to
           | buy a new car it needs to be cheap - my 25 year old truck is
           | paid off and still runs fine.
        
       | ChumpGPT wrote:
       | People who can afford to buy brand new, does it matter if there
       | is a 25k EV?
       | 
       | People that buy used, can get a cheap electric car like a 2023
       | Tesla M3 with approx. 50k miles going for 20-24k on Hertz Rental
       | Car sales site.
       | 
       | If you want a better price, just wait until 2026, when the 250k
       | leases come due. There will be a flood of used electric cars on
       | the market.
        
         | tirant wrote:
         | Currently in Europe right now the smart purchase is on second
         | hand EVs. Depreciation is extremely high (mainly fueled by fear
         | of second hand batteries), so you can get an EV equivalent to
         | an ICE counterpart for around 30-40% less money (Golf vs ID3;
         | BMW iX vs X5; Model 3 vs BMW 330i/340i).
         | 
         | If I was in the market for a second hand car I would go
         | electric for sure.
        
       | yapyap wrote:
       | I doubt a cheap american electric car is the real withering dream
       | with people not being able to put a roof over their head
        
         | burnt-resistor wrote:
         | The American dream would have both.
         | 
         | Unfortunately, while BYD would be the most readily-available
         | option for cheap cars, it would need: homologation,
         | distributors, parts suppliers, repeal of the protectionist
         | tariffs protecting Tesla, and the removal of Musk from an
         | unfair position of power, influence, and regulatory capture,
         | and whatever the heck DOGE will be.
         | 
         | The larger issue is that, in order to afford housing, a car,
         | and a life, regular American workers need to be paid livable
         | wages to keep up with the inflation "pay cut" and reverse
         | decades of sliding standards of living through lower and
         | suppressed real wages.
        
           | solardev wrote:
           | American Dream? At this point I'd settle for some reasonable
           | chance that I'd be able to still rent an apt and put food on
           | the table next year, nevermind actually owning anything or
           | ever retiring, lol.
           | 
           | I'll be squarely in the have-not camp, eager to serve our
           | rich robot-assisted overlords.
        
           | vel0city wrote:
           | Americans already thought the Bolt was far too small and had
           | far too little range. BYD's cheap EVs like the Seagull are
           | even smaller and have less range.
        
       | worik wrote:
       | > "I think having a regular $25,000 model is pointless," Musk
       | said a few weeks ago. "It would be silly."
       | 
       | ROTFLMAO!
       | 
       | Says the richest person in existence. What an entitled nasty
       | person.
        
         | 015a wrote:
         | While he did say that, its worth pointing out that Tesla also
         | said that more affordable options will be available in 2025H1
         | [1]. Given Musk's statement, what I think Tesla means by this
         | is more affordable trims of existing models.
         | 
         | I don't think its reasonable to read Musk's statement as "the
         | Model 2 isn't happening". Its more accurate to read it as "it
         | might cost more than $25,000".
         | 
         | [1] https://fortune.com/2024/10/24/tesla-model-2-affordable-
         | car-...
        
           | ceejayoz wrote:
           | > its worth pointing out that Tesla also said that more
           | affordable options will be available in 2025H1
           | 
           | Sure, but they've been saying full self driving is "next
           | year" for a decade in a row. I take that with a large grain
           | of salt. https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-
           | driving-ne...
        
             | 015a wrote:
             | Absolutely; but it is at least indicative of the
             | _direction_ Tesla is taking. It might be the end of 2025,
             | 2026, whenever; but they 've said they're working on lower
             | cost models. That's all I'm asserting.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | It's still the company that trots out humans in spandex
               | to simulate robots and a self-driving taxi that was
               | actually remotely operated by a guy on his phone.
               | 
               | I'll believe in the cheap Tesla when it arrives.
        
               | drawkward wrote:
               | Why anyone would take Elon at his word is beyond me.
        
               | 015a wrote:
               | Elon did not say that. Tesla The Company said that.
               | 
               | Ask yourself this: I bet you a thousand dollars that
               | Tesla will release either a lower cost model or a lower
               | cost trim of an existing model before the end of 2026.
               | Would you take the other side of that bet?
               | 
               | That's directionality. Deadlines might get missed. I'm
               | talking about directionality.
        
               | drawkward wrote:
               | You are now changing your claim; you originally said or
               | quoted lower cost models.
               | 
               | Yes, I'd take that bet.
        
         | tirant wrote:
         | That lacks context*
         | 
         | Obviously it might be pointless for a company like Tesla, as it
         | might not favour their financial numbers.
         | 
         | It is actually a phenomenon going on specially with European
         | brands. They have abandoned low margin cars, it is, cheapest
         | segments, to improve their financial performance numbers
         | (ROIC...)
         | 
         | * That was mentioned during Tesla's earnings call in October
         | this year, in the context of the shift of strategy towards FSD
         | and the Robotaxi.
        
       | worik wrote:
       | The Chinese are going to clean this market up.
       | 
       | The British made the same mistake back in the day with
       | motorcycles. "Who cares about the market for 125 cc machines?"
       | they said.
       | 
       | The Japanese did, and now they have the market, the British used
       | to have, for luxury and high powered motor cycles. As well as
       | most of the 125cc market
        
         | preommr wrote:
         | > The Chinese are going to clean this market up.
         | 
         | Not if our governments start putting tariffs on everything.
         | 
         | I am Canadian, but it also applies to other governments
         | (including the US). The politicians know that it's not going to
         | be easy to do the actual right thing and build up a competitive
         | industry. Instead, it's much easier to just slap some tariffs
         | and make lagging productivity the next generation's problem.
        
           | seanmcdirmid wrote:
           | That would only apply to markets with tariffs, and not the
           | rest of the world. China can sell their EVs to Central Asia,
           | Russia, Africa, south east Asia, Australia, and still
           | dominate the world wide market. America, Canada, Japan,
           | Western Europe, and Korea can protect their markets, but they
           | can't really protect their market share.
        
           | derbOac wrote:
           | Yes, the lack of discussion of tariffs in the article and
           | even in these threads is a bit odd to me. The US has tariffs
           | on Chinese electric vehicles in part specifically to keep
           | cheap Chinese EVs off the market.
           | 
           | The complexities of this are outside my wheelhouse, but it's
           | easy to see how keeping cheaper EVs out of the market would
           | carve out a major source of cheaper vehicles period, leaving
           | other manufacturers able to push higher priced cars. My guess
           | is the tariffs are directly contributing to the process
           | described in the article. Even if manufacturers were to
           | "leave that market to China", eventually it would come to
           | bite them as a certain proportion of people would start
           | buying those cars instead.
           | 
           | Monopolies, monopsonies, and tariffs are playing a huge role
           | throughout the US economy and it gets such little attention.
           | Or at least it seems that way to me.
        
           | deskamess wrote:
           | Let's face it, the Canadian reaction is purely out of US
           | friendship. There is no end-to-end EV car manufacturing in
           | Canada. There is an EV battery setup in Ontario (and perhaps
           | Quebec?) but that's about it. We are a decade or more away
           | from having an end-to-end manufacturing pipeline. So... we
           | implement tariffs that hurt the majority of the population?
           | For the govt's lack of investment across decades. If you want
           | to, put a tariff on EV batteries or any other part that is
           | manufactured in Canada - not the whole car. There is no good
           | reason for us to take this tariff.
           | 
           | At the same time, politicians will talk about the dangers of
           | climate change and how we should all try hard to mitigate it.
           | I guess some solutions just don't have the right story to it.
           | 
           | I do agree that the situation we are in now is due to lack of
           | investment in EV/associated tech starting 1.5-2 decades ago.
           | China has invested over 200 billion in EV+Solar and are
           | reaping the rewards.
        
           | eunos wrote:
           | North Americans can have their Auto Galapagos. Even Aussies
           | and the UK aren't listening to the White House's histrionics
           | (for now).
        
         | adamc wrote:
         | There are some externalities that may prevent that, such as
         | large tariffs. Countries are wary of the effects on employment.
        
         | rpcope1 wrote:
         | Honestly that analogy feels like a stretch. I like my Nortons,
         | BSAs and Triumphs, but the Japanese honestly just built better
         | bikes at the end of the day (que joke about Lucas electrics and
         | all of the other shit that seems to go wrong on British
         | vehicles of that era). The British built really beautiful bikes
         | and sports cars, but their reliability and general aggravation
         | of ownership was kind of abhorrent. A good Yamaha, Suzuki,
         | Honda, etc. even from that era, I've come to expect will be
         | cheaper to maintain, not come with half a dozen headaches out
         | of the box, and will "Just Run" when you turn the key.
         | 
         | I've yet to see good evidence that the Chinese cars are
         | actually built in a way that they're more reliable or a better
         | value than counterparts from other countries, they're just
         | cheaper.
        
           | yurishimo wrote:
           | The benefit of EVs comparatively is that the drivetrain is
           | much simpler than an ICE vehicle. If a motor dies, unbolt it
           | and swap in a new one. Same thing for the battery pack. Sure,
           | it's inconvenient, but if these Chinese companies are willing
           | to offer the same warranties as American manufacturers, then
           | what's the problem?
        
             | slices wrote:
             | if your cheap Chinese EV starts on fire and burns down your
             | house, it might not have been such a good deal
        
           | BoiledCabbage wrote:
           | Once they have the volume of the global market they
           | definitely will, if not sooner.
        
       | r14c wrote:
       | The only EV I'm even interested in is an Aptera. They're building
       | a new class of vehicle that takes advantage of the affordances of
       | full electric. I want a small efficient car that can go long
       | distances and nobody else is building anything like that. Even US
       | capital markets don't understand the appeal of this class of
       | vehicle, but luckily they were able to fill their funding in
       | global capital markets. I'm pretty pessimistic about US EVs, but
       | Aptera gives me a little hope.
        
         | underseacables wrote:
         | I love Aptera! I just don't think it's ever going to take off.
         | There's just not enough investment and demand. It looks
         | ridiculous but it's an awesome concept of aerodynamics.
        
           | burnt-resistor wrote:
           | Sorry to burst your bubble, but unless there is another solar
           | option, the 100 kWh pack will take around _40 days_ to charge
           | by solar at 700W from 20% to 80%. Otherwise, it seems like
           | the solar part is greenwashing with a bit of  '70's-style
           | geodesic dome and Balans chair styling. I'm all for cheap(er)
           | EVs that don't involve Tesla like Scout or BYD.
        
             | WorldMaker wrote:
             | The solar adds 40 miles roughly every 8 hours of sunlight.
             | Of course it's not a way to get 100% charged regularly, but
             | how often do you need the battery at 100%? 40 "free" miles
             | a business day is still a game changer in fuel usage.
        
             | throwawaymaths wrote:
             | it's probably greenwashing if you live in seattle or
             | london, but lots of americans live in sunnier places and
             | drive less (especially so now that people are WFH). I drive
             | on the order of ~25 miles a day and supposedly the aptera
             | will let me get that range on a day's charge, even though I
             | live in a slightly less sunny place than say Texas,
             | Arizona, or SoCal.
        
           | throwawaymaths wrote:
           | People hated the prius too, when it first came out. But then
           | Leonardo DiCaprio bought a Gen2 and pretty soon everyone
           | wanted one. This is particularly funny because Honda built
           | the insight first which looked crazy and nobody bought it,
           | then Toyota built the Gen1 which looked like a normal car,
           | then pivoted. Then Honda's Insight2 copied the New Prius vibe
           | and this car ALSO failed, poor honda.
           | 
           | Looking unlike anything on the road catches eyes. Yesterday I
           | was walking through an outdoor mall and I saw a bunch of kids
           | crossing the road that jumped up and down and shouted
           | "cybertruck!" when a cybertruck passed by.
           | 
           | Anyways, I happen to know the person who worked on the
           | aptera's marketing campaign the first time around in 2009.
           | Best Buy desperately wanted to get in on the EV market, and
           | so they piloted showing Apteras at a few best buys, and they
           | were laughed out of the room by all of the soccer moms
           | walking in to store. It's pretty clear the market wasn't
           | there in 2009... It's clear there is a huge vibe shift now,
           | and the market is ready enough to at least launch the
           | vehicle. Whether or not it will stick is a real question, but
           | i think it would be silly to assume that the company can't
           | get to say 100k cars on the road for lack of a market.
           | Execution failure is, of course, still a possibility.
        
         | kube-system wrote:
         | Aptera is coming up on their 20th anniversary of being
         | vaporware. It's a vehicle with a potential market of
         | potentially hundreds of nerds. Unfortunately, an idea that
         | appeals to so few will never be a viable mass-production
         | automaker.
        
           | throwawaymaths wrote:
           | demonstrably false. Unless you think they're lying, they have
           | something like ~47k preorders registered. If even 75% of
           | those preorders flake, that's something like 2 years of
           | manufacturing pipeline and sales, if they manage to get the
           | first stage factory they want.
        
             | kube-system wrote:
             | 'Hundreds' was a bit of hyperbole, but it ain't far off.
             | 
             | 47k in 100 countries, they say. These are $100 fully
             | refundable 'preorders', so they're more like placeholders
             | in line than anything else. They will absolutely have a
             | high attrition rate because most of them are speculatory.
             | And of small number that are serious -- how many of those
             | are in a regulatory region where they will be launching?
             | ...and in a way that they are normally registrable? I think
             | even they'll be shocked to ship 10% of those preorders.
             | 
             | For a bit of a reality check here -- the cybertruck
             | preorder originally had the exact same terms (before it got
             | more expensive), and had 2 million preorders. They've sold
             | almost 30k of them, and it has already been reported that
             | all waitlist reservations have been fulfilled. So at best,
             | a 98% attrition rate. If the Aptera ever ships, and they
             | are able to convert sales as good as Tesla did with the
             | Cybertruck -- then yeah, the number will be measured in
             | hundreds, not thousands.
        
           | r14c wrote:
           | I was happy to see them get funded, but its fair to be wary.
           | They are a new company after all, but I think there are a lot
           | of emerging markets where this type of vehicle makes more
           | sense than a wagon. I'm pretty pessimistic about US
           | manufacturing in general tho so I'm willing to admit that
           | there's a good chance that you're right about Aptera.
        
         | FooBarBizBazz wrote:
         | It's neat, but it would require segregated roadways to be safe,
         | and we're not going to get that.
         | 
         | I'd love to live in that world though. Smaller, lighter, lower-
         | speed vehicles. Bicycles. Walkable neighborhoods. It'd be
         | great.
         | 
         | But we can't have those nice things, because most Americans
         | have atrocious taste -- and the ones who do have good taste,
         | you can't afford to live next to.
        
           | throwawaymaths wrote:
           | > it would require segregated roadways to be safe
           | 
           | Why would it? It has a carbon fiber monocoq hull with a steel
           | roll cage. The shape is pretty much egg shaped, which seems
           | like it would be fairly structurally resilient (IANA MechE)
        
           | r14c wrote:
           | Not really, its registered as a motorcycle. From what I
           | understand they're going above and beyond on safety to meet
           | standards normally set for cars, but there are other light
           | vehicles that people drive all the time that don't get
           | special lanes.
        
       | jacknews wrote:
       | "There's not a lot of movies made about the heroes who got 20% of
       | the cost out of a car, but let me tell you, there should be."
       | 
       | Of course. You start by designing a car to be cheap, not slimming
       | down an expensive one.
        
       | VeejayRampay wrote:
       | the only manufacturer that does this right is Aptera, the rest is
       | a bunch of gimmicks / subsidy fraud that doesn't solve any actual
       | problem with cars
        
         | declan_roberts wrote:
         | Never even heard of them, so I doubt they're the only ones
         | "doing it right" vs other car companies that actually sell EVs.
        
         | happyopossum wrote:
         | What exactly does Aptera 'do right'? and what is it
         | 'manufacturing'? They've been pitching the same tiny, unsafe,
         | and impractical car for ~20 years now...
        
           | VeejayRampay wrote:
           | they understand that weight and efficiency is the only way
           | forward
           | 
           | not like Tesla selling 3-ton vehicles that pretend to be
           | green
        
         | fwip wrote:
         | You can't really call them a "manufacturer" when they haven't
         | manufactured a single car, can you? I think they have exactly
         | one test vehicle that they've made by hand.
        
       | lenerdenator wrote:
       | Consider who builds American EVs:
       | 
       | 1) a SV/Texas "tech" company, which, by its very identity, must
       | yield insane returns to shareholders 2) Legacy auto companies who
       | must yield insane returns to both shareholders and, to a lesser
       | extent, retired employees. In their defense, the second group
       | actually did work
       | 
       | Compare this to Chinese EV makers who are dumpi - I mean, willing
       | to take less return on their sale in order to establish market
       | dominance globally.
       | 
       | Yeah, no wonder American EVs are expensive.
        
         | fred_is_fred wrote:
         | So your issue is that US public companies need return on
         | investment, but that Chinese ones don't? There's nothing
         | "insane" about the ROI at GM or Ford...
        
           | lenerdenator wrote:
           | That's the issue, yes.
           | 
           | The Chinese are selling either at a loss or far below the
           | return expectations of their competitions' investors. They're
           | not going to stop, because they want to drive everyone else
           | out of the market. The solution is to drop things like
           | dividends and executive bonuses down to sane (or, really,
           | non-existent) levels and pass along the savings to the
           | customer.
           | 
           | Otherwise there might not be a company to collect ROI on in a
           | decade or two. Not that most shareholders care; they hire a
           | guy specifically to engineer the holdings so that they can
           | drop any one of them and not lose lots of value.
        
       | DaveExeter wrote:
       | If we wanted a cheap American electric car, the way to do it
       | would be to allow Chinese EV manufacturers to sell to the
       | American public!
       | 
       | Of course, that is not allowed, because it would benefit the
       | American people and hurt the American car cartel.
        
         | kraken20480 wrote:
         | Chinese EV imports could threaten national security through
         | technology dependence and harm American auto manufacturing
         | jobs. Safety and environmental standards may also be lower. I
         | think that view is rather narrow.
        
           | potato3732842 wrote:
           | >threaten national security through technology dependence and
           | harm American auto manufacturing jobs. Safety and
           | environmental standards may also be lower.
           | 
           | Protectionism based tax and economic policy causes the exact
           | same outcomes but far enough in the future and far enough
           | away that the people who implemented it will be retired
           | and/or dead and the people who voted for those people to do
           | it will have had time to spin some counter narrative about it
           | being an honest mistake, everyone thinking it was a good idea
           | at the time, etc, etc.
        
             | engineer_22 wrote:
             | Weird to me that off-shoring is back in vogue.
        
           | latentcall wrote:
           | I'd say let's ask the free market and put BYD's for sale to
           | see what the American people think.
        
         | busterarm wrote:
         | And two million less jobs for Americans. Huge benefit!
        
           | yurishimo wrote:
           | Americans vote against their own self interests constantly.
           | How is this any different? Or do you think the US govt
           | couldn't backstop it's own car companies until they became
           | cost competitive? Seems like a win/win if we want to speed up
           | EV adoption and reduce global emissions. If a new $20k EV
           | with 300 miles of range was released tomorrow, we'd see
           | massive adoption similar to the original Model 3. Americans I
           | believe are largely ready for EV adoption but the only thing
           | stopping the majority is price.
        
             | busterarm wrote:
             | America's grid isn't ready for massive EV adoption, nor are
             | its fire departments or insurance underwriters, indoor
             | parking garages, etc.
             | 
             | Price is not the thing holding back EV adoption. The people
             | who are in the $20k car market don't own their own homes
             | and don't have anywhere to plug their theoretical EV into
             | consistently.
             | 
             | EVs as they are now are only as successful as they are
             | because of a set of diehard futurists with cash to burn and
             | excessive government subsidy.
        
         | renewedrebecca wrote:
         | Well, there's also the 4.3 million US autoworkers who'd
         | ultimately be the ones to get shafted.
         | 
         | I don't think we can keep killing off entire industries and
         | expect it to work out in the long run. At some point, what's
         | left? WalMart?
        
           | DaveExeter wrote:
           | Congrats! You discovered the Broken Window Fallacy.
           | 
           | There are 300 million Americans. Why should ~1% get to hold
           | the remaining 99% hostage?
        
             | engineer_22 wrote:
             | My brother in christ, that is not the Broken Window Fallacy
        
             | kgilpin wrote:
             | It's strategically important to have essential industries
             | at home.
        
           | nunez wrote:
           | Who is facing stiff competition from Amazon (heaps of Chinese
           | goods) and Wish (Chinese company)
        
         | nunez wrote:
         | No. They will flood the market with government-subsidized EVs
         | built in zero-workers-rights environments that will absolutely
         | destroy the American auto industry. It will benefit American
         | people in the short term but absolutely harm our country long-
         | term.
        
           | HarHarVeryFunny wrote:
           | Perhaps true, but how is this any different to other Chinese
           | products sold at Walmart ?
        
             | nunez wrote:
             | It's not. Heaps on heaps on heaps of small businesses have
             | been destroyed by cheap international goods that Walmart
             | and Amazon push, and customers have crappier products that
             | don't last as long as a result.
        
               | asadotzler wrote:
               | This is incorrect. The products we buy today from the
               | Chinese through big box stores like Walmart (or Amazon)
               | actually last much longer and work far better than the
               | same American-made goods from 25 years ago in those same
               | big box stores before China was so dominant.
               | 
               | Quality is actually going up as prices come down VIA
               | CHINA. You may get comfort pretending otherwise, but
               | Chinese manufacturing is generally far better than US
               | manufacturing at large scale. Sure, you can find some
               | bespoke businesses that make great stuff here, but if you
               | want the best possible smartphone or bluejeans or air
               | conditioner, or automobille, you'd go with China over the
               | US most days of the week.
        
       | vonnik wrote:
       | Anyone interested in this should look into BorgWarner, the
       | company that produces most of the EV power trains in the US. They
       | charge a several x markup and hold a virtual monopoly.
       | 
       | https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.10440
        
       | thimkerbell wrote:
       | It's the Wall Street Journal.
        
       | JKCalhoun wrote:
       | > The cheapest car Tesla currently sells in the U.S. starts at
       | around $43,000--or $35,500 with a federal tax credit of $7,500.
       | 
       | Curious if anyone knows -- do people actually drive off the lot
       | with a Tesla for $35,500?
        
         | darknavi wrote:
         | There is no lot. You click order online and it shows up.
         | Honestly one of the best things Tesla has done for the car
         | industry.
         | 
         | I see a Model 3 Long Range rear wheel drive listed for $42,490
         | in their new vehicle configurator:
         | https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#overview
        
         | mattmaroon wrote:
         | Teslas are one of the few vehicles where you can actually get
         | the model at the lowest price they advertise because they are
         | all delivery. Almost every other make and model will show you a
         | price in their advertisements that you can't find anywhere and
         | make you wait forever to order one. I've often thought it was
         | deceptive advertising because the price they show in their TV
         | ad is one almost nobody actually gets or likely could. I'm
         | pretty sure Lexus has a version of the RX with cloth seats and
         | no touchscreenthat they only make one of just so they can use
         | the price in their ads.
         | 
         | I don't know how many people actually opt for the lowest end
         | version of Teslas but I believe you can get them with
         | essentially no more difficulty than any other version.
        
           | slices wrote:
           | true. I wasted over a year waiting to get a base model Toyota
           | Sienna, and eventually realized they might as well not exist.
        
           | kjksf wrote:
           | The cheapest Teslas are also best selling Teslas. With Teslas
           | the base model is really good and more expensive models offer
           | either longer range or performance of a Porsche for half the
           | price.
        
         | NelsonMinar wrote:
         | The soon-to-be-dismantled federal tax credit of $7500.
        
       | gradus_ad wrote:
       | Why isn't there more focus on plain old Hybrids? Not PHEV's...
       | Aren't they a best of both worlds approach? What am I missing.
        
         | j_bum wrote:
         | Right? I drive an accord hybrid (2023) and get ~53 mpg city and
         | ~48 mpg interstate.
         | 
         | I have a hard time imagining switching to a full EV or going
         | back to traditional ICE.
        
         | matt-attack wrote:
         | Um because people really want to be done burning petroleum in
         | their cars. Hybrid is just an old gas car that's gets improved
         | gas mileage. It's not a real fix.
        
         | SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
         | > Aren't they a best of both worlds approach? What am I
         | missing.
         | 
         | They have the mechanical complexity of both, in a package of
         | roughly the same size. And usually far smaller batteries and
         | thus far less battery-only range than a pure EV. There are
         | plenty of downsides.
        
         | pton_xd wrote:
         | Japan went all-in on hybrids, not exactly sure why though. Skip
         | forward a few decades and it'd make a lot more sense to unify
         | behind a fully electric charging solution than maintaining two
         | fueling methods.
        
         | croisillon wrote:
         | i have heard that a hybrid car is in fact the worst of both
         | worlds, having to carry both 50kg gasoline _and_ over 50kg
         | battery
        
           | qwerpy wrote:
           | And you still don't escape having to go to a gas station
           | every few weeks, and maintenance twice a year. Those 10 or so
           | hours per year don't seem like a lot but after having enjoyed
           | EVs for 6 years now, that's the one of the main reasons I'll
           | never go back.
        
         | tallowen wrote:
         | Plain hybrids currently do sell better than PHEVs or EVs.
         | 
         | I'm not sure in which "best of both worlds" a standard hybrid
         | is better than a PHEV - a PHEV allows for cheaper fuel (grid
         | electricity) when it's available. That being said, the extra
         | cost is associated with larger batteries than standard hybrids.
         | As batteries come down in price / size, I'm not sure why people
         | would want a standard hybrid over a PHEV.
        
         | gwbas1c wrote:
         | Hybrids don't really solve much.
         | 
         | All they do is slightly improve fuel efficiency; but they cost
         | more to buy, and cost more to maintain. I had to dump my first
         | hybrid because I couldn't find anyone to fix it.
         | 
         | The way to think of it is that a hybrid (both traditional and
         | PHEV,) has more parts than an ICE car, which has more parts
         | than an EV. It's more things that can fail as the car gets old,
         | and more things to pay for when the car is new.
         | 
         | Edit: I should add that hybrids were good for automakers to dip
         | their toe in the water for electrification: IE, get the supply
         | chain working and get institutional knowledge. But, that ship
         | sailed 10 years ago.
        
           | 1970-01-01 wrote:
           | Hybrids cost more to repair, but much less to maintain.
           | Hybrid brakes can last decades, and their tires and
           | suspension wear is very near an internal combustion engine.
           | However, the added complexity of a hybrid powertrain almost
           | always makes engine repairs more difficult and therefore cost
           | more money.
        
         | nunez wrote:
         | They are crutches and will be the worst of both worlds when EV
         | fast charging infrastructure becomes as ubiquitous as gas
         | refueling is today.
        
         | deskamess wrote:
         | I think they can work well if you do a lot of city driving
         | (where you brake a lot). So in a sense, it's the best of both
         | worlds.
         | 
         | They are cheaper than pure EV's and do not require the home
         | charging infrastructure.
        
         | bitsage wrote:
         | Hybrid sales have actually skyrocketed in the past year for
         | light duty vehicles and represent a greater percentage than
         | BEVs now [1]. Most western manufacturers completely leapfrogged
         | HEVs and went from ICEs to BEVs, so Japan seems to rule the
         | market, and will reap the rewards. There seems to a zeal
         | surrounding reducing carbon emissions that is
         | counterproductive. The contempt of hybrids is incredibly
         | reminiscent of the disdain of nuclear energy in favor of pure
         | renewables.
         | 
         | 1. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62924
        
       | latentcall wrote:
       | I would love a 10-15K BYD. I was told recently desiring a BYD is
       | un-American when I can spend 3 times the price on a Tesla. No
       | thanks! I'll hold out for something truly cheap. Cars in America
       | are insanely priced.
        
         | AnotherGoodName wrote:
         | Funny thing is that Musk himself said the "Shanghai built
         | Tesla's are the best quality Tesla's" and he's fully leaning
         | into Chinese manufacturing.
         | 
         | I suspect what will happen is that cheap Chinese imports will
         | come into the USA but only for select manufacturers who benefit
         | the current administration. So no cheap byd's but possibly
         | cheap Tesla's.
        
           | kjksf wrote:
           | Tesla cars sold in US are the most American build cars. See
           | https://www.carpro.com/blog/most-american-made-vehicle-
           | the-t...
           | 
           | What it means that if you count what percentage of car parts
           | are made in America, Tesla has higher percentage that other
           | brands, even those you might consider "more" American, like
           | GM or Ford. All Teslas sold in America are assembled in
           | America (California or Texas). Ford Mustang, for example, is
           | assembled in Mexico.
           | 
           | As far as I know Tesla never sold Chinese built cars in US.
           | They used Chinese manufacturing (CATL) and Korean batteries
           | in some model, but also manufactured batteries in US (Nevada,
           | with Panasonic) and are expanding battery production in US
           | with 4680 (used in Cybertruck).
           | 
           | Cheaper Teslas are coming to US but they'll be manufactured
           | in US (Texas). Tesla told us that they'll start making a
           | cheaper model sometime in 2025.
        
             | AnotherGoodName wrote:
             | I'm saying that Chinese made teslas might be allowed in the
             | USA in the near future.
             | 
             | Musk himself has stated bluntly that USA made teslas are
             | lower quality and more expensive so you can see the desire
             | to shut down the US plants and bring in Chinese made Teslas
             | and he clearly has some political sway now.
        
               | MR4D wrote:
               | I'd be surprised if that happened in a Trump-run trade
               | environment.
               | 
               | I know Elon has his ear, but still...
        
               | davidw wrote:
               | Yeah,if you look at the tariffs not as a fixed thing that
               | applies to everyone, but a way to favor select companies
               | and hurt others, I think they make more sense.
        
             | jayd16 wrote:
             | > Tesla told us that they'll start making a cheaper model
             | sometime in 2025.
             | 
             | Buddy, do I have a bridge to sell you...
        
             | Sohcahtoa82 wrote:
             | > Tesla told us that they'll start making a cheaper model
             | sometime in 2025.
             | 
             | Next, you'll tell me that RoboTaxi is coming within 6
             | months.
             | 
             | Roadster is now 4 years late and has no release date
             | planned. FSD is how many years late, now?
             | 
             | Tesla is the king of missed timelines and broken promises.
             | I'd be surprised if they even actually had a desire to make
             | a cheaper car. Their claims are just lies to boost the
             | stock price. Margins on a base Model 3 are already
             | incredibly slim.
        
           | klooney wrote:
           | You puff up the local market when you're giving a speech in
           | that market.
        
         | rootusrootus wrote:
         | Protecting local manufacturers from cheap offshore labor is
         | rational, especially if the offshore products are being
         | subsidized specifically to undermine incumbents and put them
         | out of business. I get that individual consumers want the
         | cheapest trinket they can find, but the gov't has to be more
         | strategic. And every country does this, including the one that
         | would be the source of these trinkets.
        
           | newyankee wrote:
           | Subsidy cannot work beyond a certain scale. Sure they may
           | have benefitted initially, but in the long run I presume they
           | need some kind of profits to sustain.
           | 
           | May be the lead in Chinese EV and battery industries is not
           | purely technological, it is also the supply chain and scale
           | developed over the years.
           | 
           | All this talk assumes that USA or Western countries have
           | always had a level playing field whereas companies like
           | Boeing or Airbus are prime counter examples
        
             | rootusrootus wrote:
             | > All this talk assumes that USA or Western countries have
             | always had a level playing field whereas companies like
             | Boeing or Airbus are prime counter examples
             | 
             | As I said, every country does it. It is _rational_ to
             | protect your own manufacturing industry. China does it. We
             | do it. European countries do it. Just because we protect
             | our own industry does not mean we have to protect China 's
             | interests too. That's their problem.
        
               | elashri wrote:
               | The problem is that the US is complaining a lot about
               | that when it is the other countries doing that. Even
               | here, average commentator will call it a foul
               | (whataboittism) if you point out that.
               | 
               | You can't eat the cake and have it. Either you follow the
               | fair trade requirements or don't complain about others
               | not doing the same. If you say standards, then follow by
               | lead and respect them.
               | 
               | Also I do not think every country does that. There are
               | too much pressure by the US, China and EU on these
               | countries to prevent many from doing that.
        
               | NotSammyHagar wrote:
               | The us of course subsidizes our manufacturing (whatever
               | is left of it), just like many other countries. I don't
               | know if our $7500 tax rebates on locally made EVs with
               | non-chinese batteries compare to Chinese govt subsidies.
               | But it's clear that EVs are going to be much much cheaper
               | to make, maintain, and recycle over time. This is a
               | threat to all kinds of incumbents. We face the
               | destruction of a lot of our manufacturing industrial base
               | if we don't convert some more of it to EVs, and this will
               | also be destabilizing to our politics. Add on the enmity
               | of the gas and oil industry (helped a tiiiny bit by
               | Trump's victory).
        
               | elashri wrote:
               | The US is subsiding a lot of industries. Aviation,
               | agriculture (specially agricultural exports),
               | transportation and energy. They just introduced CHIPSA
               | act to promote US companies chipa production and a lot
               | more. When china does this (which is does) then this is
               | far cry and outright harmful for international trade.
               | Lets get out of comparison between US and China. Smaller
               | countries will be hit hard (even with sanctions) if they
               | try to do something from that.
               | 
               | The point here is that the US, China shouldn't try to
               | prevent other countries from doing what they are doing
               | and forcing them to harm their local economy and open
               | markets under the disguise of free trade.
        
             | nytesky wrote:
             | No, they do not need long term profits to sustain, at least
             | in certain regimes.
        
           | AnotherGoodName wrote:
           | It leads to market separation. No one outside the US will buy
           | US made when they have cheaper Chinese cars as an option. And
           | the US can't force external competitiveness to emerge with
           | those subsidies in place. Not to mention internally having to
           | buy more expensive transport has knock on effects to the
           | entire economy.
        
             | MR4D wrote:
             | In a way, that doesn't matter for the US. Consider that the
             | US has an enormous trade deficit. If the US brought to
             | even, then all those exporting countries with large
             | surpluses would be in bad shape.
             | 
             | This is a complex problem, and when the US is the importer
             | from the world, the mere decision to stop importing would
             | send shockwaves through trade everywhere.
        
               | InDubioProRubio wrote:
               | The problem is -the us exports one thing en mass-
               | security. And its starting to use that for shakedowns-
               | which is the moment everybody becomes his own sheriff.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | And at this point that would also benefit the US. That
               | mass security is not cheap.
        
               | lossolo wrote:
               | If you are running $2 trillion deficits, then of course
               | you will have trade deficits. You are an importer of
               | goods and an exporter of USD. The problem will arise when
               | your debt becomes unsustainable and alternatives to the
               | USD emerge for settling international trade. This would
               | lead to a decline in demand for USD, a drop in demand for
               | U.S. debt, and reduced capital inflow into the U.S. stock
               | market (end of recycling), essentially leading to a
               | collapse of the current U.S. economic model.
        
           | NelsonMinar wrote:
           | Do you think this argument applies to microprocessor
           | manufacture?
        
             | rootusrootus wrote:
             | To the extent that those microprocessors are necessary for
             | war, sure.
        
           | downrightmike wrote:
           | The only thing locally made is the bare minimum to make it
           | "Made in USA", but everything is heavily outsourced already.
           | There is no point to your argument, as that battle was lost a
           | long time ago.
        
             | rootusrootus wrote:
             | The assembly line process itself is a big strategic value.
             | And just because we don't manage to source every individual
             | part exclusively from USA labor doesn't mean we should just
             | throw in the towel and completely give up on our ability to
             | make machinery.
        
           | glial wrote:
           | I exclusively buy Toyotas because they are cheaper to
           | maintain than American cars. Is your argument that I
           | shouldn't have access to Japanese cars either?
           | 
           | I understand the desire to have a strategic reserve of
           | manufacturing capacity. However, the US also subsidizes the
           | US auto industry heavily by e.g. bailing out GM and Chrysler.
           | It frustrates me that US car manufacturers continue to make
           | exclusively heavy, low-efficiency vehicles. Give me something
           | inexpensive, safe, efficient, reliable, and I'll buy it.
        
             | InDubioProRubio wrote:
             | The protectionism there deformed the product and thus, the
             | limited offerings are a result of the inability to compete
             | in these segments.
        
               | sleepybrett wrote:
               | The product deformed due to lack of ingenuity related to
               | the CAFE standards.
        
             | Rebelgecko wrote:
             | Most (maybe all?) Toyota in the US are actually made in
             | America. If you look at the various "Made In America"
             | indexes that take into account factories, supply chain,
             | etc, the Camry does better than anything from Detroit
        
               | isanengineer wrote:
               | There's some interesting history here. Toyota started
               | manufacturing in North America in the 70s-80s largely due
               | to pressure from the US government in the form of tariffs
               | and import restrictions. For example, from
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Motor_North_America:
               | 
               | "Toyota's first manufacturing investment in the United
               | States came in 1972 when the company struck a deal with
               | Atlas Fabricators, to produce truck beds in Long Beach,
               | in an effort to avoid the 25% "chicken tax" on imported
               | light trucks." ... "After the successes of the 1970s, and
               | the threats of import restrictions, Toyota started making
               | additional investments in the North American market in
               | the 1980s. In 1981, Japan agreed to voluntary export
               | restraints, which limited the number of vehicles the
               | nation would send to the United States each year, leading
               | Toyota to establish assembly plants in North America."
               | 
               | The book "The Machine That Changed the World", while a
               | bit dated, gives a great overview of the history of
               | Toyota from US automaker perspective.
        
             | rootusrootus wrote:
             | > I exclusively buy Toyotas because they are cheaper to
             | maintain than American cars.
             | 
             | I think Teslas are actually cheapest, by brand.
             | 
             | > It frustrates me that US car manufacturers continue to
             | make exclusively heavy, low-efficiency vehicles.
             | 
             | The market has decided that they want cars from Toyota and
             | trucks from Detroit. I can't really blame the automakers
             | from focusing on what makes them the best profit.
             | 
             | I'd dispute the low efficiency claim. My Ford pickup is
             | _way_ more efficient than anything Toyota makes. And even
             | strictly comparing like-for-like, Toyota is on the lower
             | efficiency end of that market.
        
             | NotSammyHagar wrote:
             | There have been people who wanted much more protectionism
             | from Japanese autos since the 1970s, esp. since they
             | demonstrated they make great cars for less money and
             | detroit wasn't really interested in trying too hard.
             | 
             | History looked like it was going to repeat with EVs from
             | the US except for Tesla. Now GM has some decent cars across
             | a variety of models, Ford has 2. But neither company has
             | put out any really low priced cars yet (you know, like
             | under 30). Tesla (lead by darth vader) is the only hope for
             | the near future of low priced cars. I think ford and gm
             | will get there eventually. But it could be too late if
             | imports can just come in.
        
             | EasyMark wrote:
             | Most of the Toyotas sold in America and made in America
        
           | casey2 wrote:
           | What is a "local manufacturer" some other multinational
           | corporation? At least think about your bullshit propaganda
           | before you repeat it.
        
           | ricardobeat wrote:
           | The current average monthly salary in China is $3000-$4000 US
           | dollars. This is not about cheap labour anymore but simple
           | economies of scale.
           | 
           | The whole talk about subsidies is pure smoke screen. US
           | automakers have received a lot more subsidies than their
           | Chinese counterparts. The top chinese firm receiving
           | government subsidies, CATL, got ~$500M USD last year. BYD is
           | said to have received $3.5 billion in total in its lifetime.
           | In the meantime, the US government offered $12B just last
           | year for automakers to start making more EVs, and Ford is
           | reported to have received a total of $33B in loans, bailouts
           | and tax rebates.
           | 
           | In any case, if you could put down $3.5B and get a BYD out,
           | everyone would be doing it, reality is a bit more complex
           | than that.
        
             | somerandomqaguy wrote:
             | ??? The average BYD line autoworker earns $640 to $840 USD
             | a month, but that require overtime; 1.5x pay on weekdays
             | and 2x pay on weekends.
             | 
             | BYD Wuxi workers went on strike in 2021 because BYD was
             | trying to restructure to eliminate overtime, which would
             | effectively drop the workers wage to under $400 USD a
             | month.
        
         | bloomingeek wrote:
         | Absolutely! The biggest problem is the average American allows
         | themselves to be duped and challenged by advertising. New tech
         | in cars is great, but spending $40K and up is stupid. I've said
         | it before: my $27K base model Ram truck will go from point A to
         | point B just as well as a $70K(!) model. Is it just as shiny?
         | No, but the money I didn't spend on all that shine won't be
         | wasted on depreciation.
         | 
         | My credit union recently sent me an email telling me I can be
         | approved for up to $70K for an auto loan, this is insane! When
         | we allow competitiveness or temptation to decide how much money
         | we spend, we lose every time. The only way to get Tesla to
         | offer that $25K car is to stop buying the more expensive ones.
        
           | ComSubVie wrote:
           | And American prices are already insanely low. If I want to
           | buy a RAM in Austria for $30k I get a used car with
           | 150.000km. If I want a new one it's (much) over $100k.
        
           | datavirtue wrote:
           | All those options and appearance packages just become
           | liabilities as the trucks age. None of it ages well.
        
           | ndileas wrote:
           | I was nodding along with your post until you brought out your
           | numbers (I agree fully with the broader point). For me, any
           | car above 15k or so is very expensive - I've always bought
           | used and drove them into the ground. I'd love an electric car
           | but it's not in the cards for my family until the total cost
           | of ownership gets down to 2-3k a year or so.
           | 
           | This is something I've always found fascinating about
           | materialism (I can only speak to the US). The messaging and
           | feelings are incredibly similar whether your budget is 10k or
           | 100k. Very easy to slide up the scale slowly and feel like
           | you're still living small with a bulging budget, or to choose
           | options that are beyond your means and so stunt financial
           | growth.
        
           | uxp100 wrote:
           | Is there a $27k base model ram truck? Seems like the base
           | model on the ram website is $38k and when I tried to price a
           | regular cab one from stellantis fleet those were like $46k,
           | but I could have made a mistake on that site.
        
         | solardev wrote:
         | Half of America doesn't want to support the incoming
         | administration either, and Musk has decided to closely and
         | personally align himself with it. I wonder if that will affect
         | Tesla sales.
        
           | dec0dedab0de wrote:
           | I kinda think the whole thing is just Elon tricking
           | republicans into buying electric cars.
        
             | solardev wrote:
             | Masterful move right there. Maybe he can trick them all
             | into going to Mars next? They don't call it the Red Planet
             | for nuthin.
        
               | jjtheblunt wrote:
               | that's the first thing about politics that made me smile
               | in months i think.
        
             | jayd16 wrote:
             | Is that why the EV subsidy is getting repealed?
        
               | pstuart wrote:
               | The incoming administration has shown contempt for
               | programs created by the "other side". They're strongly
               | against renewable energy in general, and their patrons
               | are oil and gas people.
        
             | klooney wrote:
             | Which is good, we don't want electric cars to become a
             | culture war issue
        
               | pstuart wrote:
               | > we don't want electric cars to become a culture war
               | issue
               | 
               | Too late. I'm happy to be proven wrong at some point.
        
               | datavirtue wrote:
               | Have you ever gotten behind a diesel truck with emissions
               | deleted? I have...a lot. The roll coal crowd doesn't have
               | EV on their radar whatsoever.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | That isn't quite true. They are aware of EV trucks - they
               | won't buy one of course, but they are aware. They spread
               | stories about those trucks not having any useful range
               | (which is true - when pulling a trailer or driving well
               | over the speed limit the EVs lose range) Those diesel
               | trucks they drive get 600 miles unloaded.
        
             | MetaWhirledPeas wrote:
             | I think there are a lot of little reasons all combined, and
             | that is definitely one of them.
             | 
             | - Heavy criticism over the past 6 years from traditional
             | news sources (even tech sources like Ars Technica)...
             | basically ever since the Tham Luang cave rescue*
             | 
             | - Thick hate from people in the comments sections
             | 
             | - Government agencies interfering with SpaceX and Tesla
             | 
             | - Biden administration ignoring his carbon tax suggestion
             | 
             | - Biden administration snubbing Tesla at the EV Summit
             | 
             | - His family transgender drama
             | 
             | - COVID mandates shutting down his manufacturing for a
             | period of time
             | 
             | - Conservatives not buying EVs
             | 
             | If you look at all his points of friction in recent years
             | it's not much of a surprise to see the transformation.
             | 
             | *The cave rescue was a sad turning point for Musk. He
             | endured excessive ridicule for pushing for a technological
             | solution, then really stepped in it with his bitter
             | accusations against that rescue diver.
        
             | datavirtue wrote:
             | He wants the tax credit snuffed out to eliminate US
             | competition and tarrifs against imports to eliminate
             | foreign competition.
             | 
             | No tax credit, no Rivian. I can see why he wants that.
             | Their build quality and manufacturing ability trounce the
             | Tesla when they were at that stage. Rivian has full EV vans
             | in production and on the road daily. Impressive as hell.
        
           | dfxm12 wrote:
           | I don't know what will publicly get the blame, but I, and I
           | don't think I'm unique in this regard, am not buying a Tesla
           | because of the documented issues the cars keep having:
           | getting bricked, catching fire, being needlessly difficult to
           | escape in an emergency, tons of unfulfilled promises about
           | new features, etc. On top of this, everyone who I knew who
           | had a Tesla never bought a 2nd.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | I'd like to see some real numbers. All to often something
             | gets in the news and so you think there is a real issue
             | while in reality it is no worse than anything else.
             | Statistics are important, otherwise we get lost in our own
             | biases.
             | 
             | It is very common for people to change brands every time
             | they get a new car.
        
           | warner25 wrote:
           | I recently saw a bumper sticker on a Tesla that said "We
           | bought it before we knew how awful he was." Because of Musk,
           | my wife and I will never buy a Tesla even if they do release
           | a basic, low-cost model here in the US to compete with
           | Japanese and Korean economy cars.
           | 
           | On the other hand, as the other comment said about him
           | "tricking Republicans," I think he's also gained a new
           | segment of buyers with his political play, so this might be a
           | wash.
        
           | ben_w wrote:
           | I get the point, but also he's a much more competent salesman
           | (and, I'm assured, rocket scientist) than he is at basically
           | all the other things he's inadvisably gotten involved with.
           | 
           | So, while I'd bet against Twitter (if I such a thing were
           | possible), I wouldn't bet against Tesla being a good fit for
           | the US market.
           | 
           | European sales may well collapse, and he may be very confused
           | about this, but I'd still expect his approach to do well in
           | the USA.
        
         | downrightmike wrote:
         | The only difference between the vast majority of cars "Made in
         | the USA" is the scant margin that allows manufacturers to use
         | that mark. Most cars are made outside the USA. So, as far as
         | I'm concerned, they are all basically un-American. That's
         | beside from the point that Tesla is being run by a Nazi.
        
         | torginus wrote:
         | Un-American or not, those 10k BYDs reflect Chinese supply
         | chains, labor prices, and market subsidies and cars built to
         | different regulations - turns out if they play the game like
         | other manufacturers do, BYDs aren't actually that much cheaper
         | to make.
        
           | MetaWhirledPeas wrote:
           | Labor prices and subsidies might be "cheating" but why would
           | we count supply chain against them?
        
         | scottyah wrote:
         | Blame the pesky labor and safety laws.
        
         | Zelphyr wrote:
         | I don't remember the source so, someone please correct me if
         | I'm wrong but, I read that no EV battery can be made for less
         | than $50K. So, either BYD is cutting some serious corners
         | (possibly) or they are being heavily subsidized (probably). If
         | either are true, I can see how that would be damaging to us.
        
           | hedora wrote:
           | I've heard replacing an EV sadan's battery is typically ~$10K
           | (capacity matters of course).
           | 
           | Also, fwiw, our home batteries (sold at profit, with lots of
           | expensive other stuff and install labor) were about $20K, and
           | the same capacity as our small car.
        
           | Sohcahtoa82 wrote:
           | > I don't remember the source so, someone please correct me
           | if I'm wrong but, I read that no EV battery can be made for
           | less than $50K.
           | 
           | Absolute hogwash.
           | 
           | The only way for this to be true is if you amortize the cost
           | of R&D and factory building over a small number of batteries
           | and include it in the manufacturing cost, and I think it's
           | incredibly misleading to include the cost of R&D into the
           | cost of a battery, simply for the fact that you can make wild
           | claims by just including it.
           | 
           | So...for an incumbent manufacturer that's putting very little
           | effort into actually selling EVs, it might be true that it's
           | costing them $50K per battery if you include the cost of
           | setting up the manufacturing. But for someone like Tesla, who
           | has literally sold millions of cars, even if you include that
           | cost, it's closer to $10K.
        
         | redwall_hp wrote:
         | I will never buy an American car. I remember my parents'
         | multiple Dodges and Fords catastrophically failing before they
         | switched to Toyota.
         | 
         | US car companies have created the lasting idea that cars are
         | dead at 100K miles, because those companies' cars absolutely
         | were. Meanwhile, I bought my Honda at 148K and it's over 210K
         | now and doing fine.
         | 
         | Tesla seems to live up to the legendary Ford quality, with
         | hilarious workmanship issues, Ford Pinto level "it'll trap you
         | in a fire" design and frequent failures. Probably because they
         | threw out the hard-learned lessons of a century of auto-making
         | for novelty electronic gimmicks.
        
           | mediaman wrote:
           | I believe it's worth pointing out that with your Toyota,
           | you're still buying an American car. The vast majority of
           | Toyota vehicles sold in America are made in US plants.
           | 
           | Which is a good thing! It shows that those other quality
           | issues are not related to US labor force, or some intrinsic
           | American inability to make high quality goods.
        
             | somerandomqaguy wrote:
             | Well, the big seller is Canadian. RAV4 comes out of
             | Woodstock, Ontario.
        
             | serjester wrote:
             | Designs, manufactures and sells all in the US. For all
             | intensive purpose, the Japanese exert a rather small
             | influence on the day to day operations
        
               | EasyMark wrote:
               | intents* and purposes
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | US cars have not been dead at 100k miles in decades, but
           | people still accuse them of that. I have my Chrysler at 230k
           | miles and still running fine.
           | 
           | Note that many of the "American" cars with the bad reputation
           | are Toyota's with just a different logo. Even though it is
           | easy to check who made the car, the American logo makes for
           | the reputation that it will die in 100k miles.
        
           | EasyMark wrote:
           | I don't know what you're doing but I have had 3 American
           | sedans (1 mustang, 1 fusion, 1 Malibu) over the past 20 years
           | and they all (2) made it over 200k miles when I sold them
           | with my current one approaching that, nothing but regular
           | maintenance and one time I had to replace shocks/struts on
           | the ford fusion. 200k is when I generally pack it up and get
           | a new car.
        
           | jdeibele wrote:
           | We have 2 Chevrolet EVs, a Bolt EUV made in the US and an
           | Equinox EV made in Mexico.
           | 
           | They're great. I have rotated the tires twice on the Bolt and
           | I'm getting some different wipers for the windshield because
           | my wife doesn't like the noise the factory ones make. Oh, and
           | I got floor mats for both cars.
           | 
           | I have Car Play in the Bolt and GM's own system in the
           | Equinox (Android for Autos or something like that, not the
           | standard Android Auto) and they're both fine.
           | 
           | I use SuperCruise whenever I can. That's only on freeways
           | with the Bolt and a lot more other places with the Equinox. I
           | was backseat in an Uber Saturday and it was neat watching the
           | Tesla Model 3's AutoPilot system. Very cool. On the other
           | hand, GM was reporting no accidents with their cars, which
           | include ICE vehicles, too.
           | https://gmauthority.com/blog/2024/02/gm-super-cruise-
           | users-t...
        
           | euroderf wrote:
           | > US car companies have created the lasting idea that cars
           | are dead at 100K miles
           | 
           | OT but, there were clear exceptions to this even back in the
           | bad ol' days. It was common knowledge in the 70s that for
           | certain engines (such as Chevy small blocks), if you cared
           | for the engine (mainly: regular oil changes) you could get
           | 200K+ out of it. The rest of the car was too low-tech to
           | decay, except of course for road salt vs body work.
        
         | skybrian wrote:
         | If you want something truly cheap, buying a new car doesn't
         | make a lot of sense. Used cars are a better deal.
        
           | EasyMark wrote:
           | Not always, the lower end Toyotas it's a better deal per mile
           | to buy new, if you are willing to shop around a little and
           | get last year's model.
        
           | latentcall wrote:
           | Used cars are not that much of a bargain. I've been looking
           | and asking 20k for a car with 100k plus miles is insanity.
        
       | the_gastropod wrote:
       | It's weird the Chevy Bolt wasn't mentioned. After the $7500 tax
       | credit, you could get a brand new Chevy Bolt for under $20k. If
       | you haven't driven a Bolt, I can't recommend it more. It's about
       | as perfect as car as I could reasonably dream up. It's a
       | hatchback, minimally gimmicky (compared to, e.g, a Tesla, where
       | so many things are "different" for the sake of being different),
       | unnecessarily fast--truly, it's shocking how quick it is, very
       | respectable range of ~270 miles, has Apple CarPlay (or Android's
       | equivalent if you're into that sort of thing), and it's cheap.
       | 
       | I picked up a used 2023 for $14k last month. Hertz is unloading
       | their fleet of EV's, so they're ridiculously cheap if you don't
       | mind driving a former rental car.
        
         | solardev wrote:
         | Didn't they recall all of them for a few years due to some
         | safety issues? Are they fixed yet?
        
           | OkayPhysicist wrote:
           | Yeah, it was just a software patch. Real quick fix.
        
             | vel0city wrote:
             | No, the Bolt had a manufacturing defect which could result
             | in an internal short and cause a battery fire.
             | 
             | All Bolts were available for a recall maintenance where the
             | entire battery was replaced under warranty.
        
           | vel0city wrote:
           | Yes, an in fact IMO that makes the used models even more of a
           | steal. Get a several year old model with a pretty much new
           | battery. The battery is pretty much the main wear item in the
           | whole drivetrain, so its like buying a used ICE with a brand
           | new drive train.
        
           | kccqzy wrote:
           | Yeah they are fixed. A Bolt is a nice vehicle to buy if you
           | don't mind its slow charging; and judging by the number of
           | Bolts on the road plenty of people don't mind.
        
         | elsonrodriguez wrote:
         | Picked up a used Bolt as well. Certified used with 7 years left
         | on the battery warranty for about $15k.
         | 
         | Anyone who actually wants a cheap EV can buy a cheap EV.
         | 
         | There's just too many people that think they need a 3 row EV
         | SUV with 500 miles of range, and that it should be under $35k.
         | 
         | Also the goal posts keep getting moved. Used to be people would
         | say EVs will never take off until they hit $35k. Now that there
         | are new EVs that can be had for that price, the new problem is
         | that EVs will never take off unless they're $25k.
         | 
         | Meanwhile just about every EV sales graph shows an upward
         | trajectory regardless of these "requirements".
        
         | greenie_beans wrote:
         | > After the $7500 tax credit, you could get a brand new Chevy
         | Bolt for under $20k.
         | 
         | searched online for about 10 minutes and couldn't find this.
        
         | grandma_tea wrote:
         | Absolutely! I just picked up a 2023 for $17k. It's basically
         | the perfect commuter car.
        
       | GratiaTerra wrote:
       | I took advantage of the IRA solar power and $7500 EV credit, now
       | I have an off grid home all electric appliances and excess power
       | for hot tubs and EV's. The Ford Lightning acts as a generator.
       | This was the greatest most life changing and impactful
       | legistlation ever: I've had $0 (ZERO!) in gasoline, LP, and
       | electric utility bills since installation last year.
        
         | max2 wrote:
         | May I ask what state are you in?
        
         | solardev wrote:
         | Does your state pay you retail for your production? And have
         | you gotten your first annual true up bill yet?
         | 
         | That setup is a dream for a lot of people, but it's not always
         | easy to make happen depending on state regulations (and how
         | powerful the utilities there are)...
        
           | epistasis wrote:
           | > I have an off grid home
           | 
           | Seems like the utilities aren't involved at all?
           | 
           | Cheap storage actually makes grid defection a possibility for
           | a ton of people these days. Especially when you start
           | considering the cost of upgrading 100 amp service to 200 amp
           | or similar. Once you've added a bit of battery, might as well
           | go a bit more, and use your vehicle for additional backup
           | when necessary.
           | 
           | People having 70kWh or more of mobile battery in the garage
           | is going to change the calculation for a lot of people. Many
           | people who would never install solar unless it saves them
           | money will also spend a tooooooon of money on a big truck for
           | aesthetic reasons, and then find that it makes solar a
           | cheaper propositon.
        
             | solardev wrote:
             | Haha sorry! I totally missed that important sentence.
             | Thanks for pointing it out.
        
           | GratiaTerra wrote:
           | I disconnected from the grid entirely so there is no bill.
           | 
           | Since the local power company here is only paying 10 cents
           | per kw for solar power (which they resell at greater profit),
           | I decided to run a small crypo miner and I still have excess
           | power on a 22kw system.
           | 
           | I don't know of anywhere where its not legal to be solar
           | powered but there were several thousand in costs associated
           | with engineer plans and permits.
        
             | jerkstate wrote:
             | > Since the local power company here is only paying 10
             | cents per kw for solar power (which they resell at greater
             | profit)
             | 
             | I think this is a common reason for disappointment in solar
             | incentives. At least half of your power bill pays for
             | transmission, and the half that pays for generation needs
             | to be constructed such that the overall supply must meet
             | the demand at all times, rather than simply supplying a
             | number of kWh per day regardless of instantaneous demand.
             | You can't consider the "price" per kWh that you pay
             | commercially to be the value of supplying a kWh to the
             | grid, it's much more likely that the utility is making a
             | (subsidized) loss paying you 10c per solar kWh.
        
               | epistasis wrote:
               | I'm not fully sold on this reasoning.
               | 
               | Electricity on the local distribution node has a value
               | equal to the cost of generation plus the distribution.
               | That's the value of it, what we pay. So by supplying the
               | kWh locally to neighbors, the grid _costs_ have been
               | avoided. But the value is still the same.
               | 
               | Now, the T&D infrastructure has already been built, and
               | the utility wants to get paid no matter what, but if they
               | were a private company and not a monopoly, they wouldn't
               | have a right to get compensated for their investment no
               | matter what, because every company buys capital at risk.
               | And that's for the good of the economy.
               | 
               | There needs to be some sort of forcing function to
               | incentivize this cheaper form of power delivery, that
               | avoids a lot of transmission and distribution costs. And
               | that forcing function is the price that we pay those who
               | generate the electricity.
               | 
               | The utility of course loses on every kWh they don't
               | generate, because they want to sell more electricity.
               | However, since they have a monopoly, we need other
               | regulation to ensure that innovation that results in
               | lower overall costs actually results in lower prices for
               | consumers.
               | 
               | So far, the utilities have snowed the public and the PUCs
               | such that they get away with murder on this transition.
               | We need a grid, but we do not need the utility. And if
               | the utility can not come up with a business model that
               | works as a regulated monopoly when we have local
               | generation, then we need to change the regulatory model,
               | most likely eliminating the monopoly.
               | 
               | There's a lot to learn from Texas here for the rest of
               | the country.
        
               | jerkstate wrote:
               | Your excess solar power is not worth the retail power
               | cost because it is not as reliable or plentiful as
               | utility power. If you think your neighbor would pay you
               | the same rate for your unreliable excess power as they
               | pay the utility, you should start a power company!
               | 
               | The infrastructure has not "already been built" - it is
               | constantly under expansion and maintenance, and the bonds
               | used to fund construction also need to be repaid.
               | 
               | I think your mind frame is that the reason the grid is
               | not smart enough to pay you what you think your excess
               | unreliable power is worth (which you stated to be the
               | entire retail cost of power, including transmission and
               | distribution) is because of incompetence and corruption
               | of the utility monopolies. I think that is a pretty
               | uncharitable take. It's a hard problem and people
               | generally want reliable and cheap. You can't make
               | microgrids reliable and plentiful without a ton of
               | diverse generation (which already exists on the macro-
               | grid) OR a ton of storage, both of which are very
               | expensive. It is a problem worth solving but it needs to
               | be considered with a realistic view on what people are
               | actually paying for when they pay their power bill.
        
               | epistasis wrote:
               | My frame of mind is that residential solar has the
               | potential to dramatically reduce transmission and grid
               | costs, but there is no way to force the utilities to
               | shift to that model, because they will make less money.
               | And regulators are asleep at the wheel and beholden to
               | the utilities they regulate.
               | 
               | Grids are sized for peak, and without solar that peak is
               | midday in most places, meaning that distributed behind-
               | the-meter solar makes the grid cheaper.
               | 
               | Utilities, when they argue that solar is worth less, are
               | not arguing on the merits of the issue but only
               | selectively advancing arguments that benefit them. They
               | will never present the totality of the issue.
               | 
               | It is up to others to push back against utilities' narrow
               | views with a more complete view of the picture and what's
               | possible.
        
               | secabeen wrote:
               | Peak load without solar is not midday. Here's an NYT
               | article from 1975 about introduction of Time of Use
               | billing describing peak rates being in the morning and
               | evening:
               | 
               | > Mrs. Wells changed her housework habits because for
               | part of the year it costs her more than six times as much
               | to use electricity from 8 A.M. to 11 A.M. and 5 P.M. to 9
               | P.M. as it costs during the rest of the day.
               | 
               | https://www.nytimes.com/1975/06/29/archives/experimenting
               | -wi...
               | 
               | Current CAISO data shows that overall demand still peaks
               | in the late afternoon to early evening. I picked a day in
               | mid-august, and demand at 7pm is 40% higher (39GW) than
               | at solar noon of 1pm (29GW).
               | 
               | https://www.caiso.com/todays-outlook
        
               | secabeen wrote:
               | Eliminating the delivery of kWs doesn't change the grid
               | costs one whit. Grid costs are driven mostly by the
               | number of customers, the max demand that the grid has to
               | support at one time, maintenance, and the distance the
               | lines have to travel to reach you. Just like a water main
               | or sewage pipe, reductions in demand only change the cost
               | of distribution when they are large enough and prolonged
               | enough to allow for smaller equipment and fewer lines.
               | 
               | Having a residential power connection from the grid
               | allows you to demand up to 200Amps of power, at any time
               | of day or night, 365 days a year, with zero notice. The
               | power company has to build the lines to support that
               | potential demand, whether you use it or not. Over all of
               | California, distributed solar probably has reduced the
               | expenditures we would have need to have made on new
               | transmission and generation facilities compared to a
               | world without distributed solar, but that doesn't affect
               | the baseline cost of a ubiquitous grid that serves from
               | Crescent City to the border with Arizona at Yuma, and all
               | points between.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | > So by supplying the kWh locally to neighbors, the grid
               | costs have been avoided.
               | 
               | No they haven't. The grid cost is to build and maintain
               | the wires and equipment. Your solar output isn't reliable
               | enough for them to downsize the grid, so even though
               | selling to a neighbor bypasses the grid it doesn't reduce
               | the cost of having a grid.
               | 
               | What you could do is split out the grid cost, make it be
               | a fixed fee per location instead of per-kWh. That would
               | drop the price of buying a kWh until it's much closer to
               | the price of selling.
               | 
               | But if you do that, someone with a lot of solar panels
               | would end up with even less money in their pocket, since
               | their reduced kWh purchases used to let them skimp on
               | grid fees, and now that no longer happens.
        
         | barbazoo wrote:
         | Plus you reduced your GHG emissions considerably too probably!
        
           | dowager_dan99 wrote:
           | this is a good example of how individuals are fine to do
           | things for the public good when they are consequential or at
           | least compatible with the things in their best interest.
           | We're willing to self sacrifice only so (and not very) far,
           | so need to apply that goodwill very strategically. Another
           | example: I commute by bike everyday, not because it's
           | cheaper, healthy good for the environment (even though these
           | are all true), but because I love it and it's so enjoyable -
           | even it winter. Screw with the roads, or traffic patterns, or
           | waste my property taxes, or neglect the bikes paths and snow
           | removal enough and I'll either stop or move.
        
         | asciimov wrote:
         | It's too bad that the only people benefiting from all green
         | power subsidies are the people that least need them.
         | 
         | We should be investing solar in lower income communities, as
         | those people could really use cheaper utilities, and any saving
         | they get would immediately go back into their communities.
        
           | solarpunk wrote:
           | >We should be investing solar in lower income communities, as
           | those people could really use cheaper utilities, and any
           | saving they get would immediately go back into their
           | communities.
           | 
           | Good news, these are called "community solar gardens" and
           | they exist all around the USA, here's a large one based in
           | Minneapolis: https://www.cooperativeenergyfutures.com/
        
             | hedora wrote:
             | Community net monitoring isn't allowed in California.
             | 
             | Instead, PG&E let the grid fall apart, so now they're
             | charging crippling amounts of money to people that can't
             | afford solar.
             | 
             | On the one hand, with the help of subsidies, our house is
             | off-grid capable, and our power bill is $0-50.
             | 
             | On the other hand, there's a red-tagged neighborhood near
             | by (they built homes despite not having power grid access),
             | and they usually end up having a generator fire take out a
             | few houses every couple of years.
             | 
             | Anyway, I really wish California had a second political
             | party (not the GOP).
        
               | r00fus wrote:
               | PG&E is a factor in net emigration out of CA. Agreed
               | single-party-controlled states are full of inefficiency
               | (aka corruption).
        
               | entropicdrifter wrote:
               | On the other hand, living in a purple state doesn't
               | necessarily help with corruption either. I live in PA and
               | we had billions "go missing" from our Department of
               | Transportation over the course of over a little over a
               | decade. Things have improved in the last like 6 years or
               | so, but we had to get to the point where our bridges were
               | crumbling and just having permanent detours setup around
               | them first before people really got on a crusade about
               | properly fixing our roads.
               | 
               | Josh Shapiro's done a bang-up job actually properly
               | allocating the funds we managed to get from the big
               | infrastructure bill, but that's been a _major_ change
               | from how things have been for the last 30 years I 've
               | lived here.
        
               | selimthegrim wrote:
               | Net metering?
        
               | renewiltord wrote:
               | How is it crippling? My 1900 sq. ft. loft in SF cost like
               | $100/mo most months. That's 5 hours of minimum wage work
               | here. Even the $200 it hit at peak is 10 hours of minimum
               | wage work. That was with 4 people living in it.
        
             | irq-1 wrote:
             | > CEF has financed and developed 6.9MW (~$16M) of low-
             | income-accessible community solar arrays that ... offsets
             | the utility bills of over 700 Minnesota households for the
             | next 25 years
             | 
             | $16M for 700 homes = $22,857.14/home
             | 
             | That's not an investment, it's just charity by other means.
        
               | solarpunk wrote:
               | That number is in the ballpark of what it costs to
               | install solar on a rooftop here in Minnesota.
               | 
               | The other part is these solar gardens don't stop paying
               | for your electric bill if you move, so it's especially
               | equitable for renters.
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | 6.9MW / 700 homes is 9.85 kW/home.
               | 
               | Two of these would do more than that (10.5 kW), for (at
               | current exchange rates) $5934, or just over a quarter
               | that price:
               | 
               | https://www.kaufland.de/product/512021383/?search_value=s
               | ola...
               | 
               | And even at that price, it's overlapping in price range
               | with the non-solar equivalents.
               | 
               | The funny thing is, I grew up (in the UK) with news
               | stories about how the latest computers were so expensive
               | in the UK that it was cheaper to fly to NYC, buy one, and
               | fly back with it, than to buy local -- and now the US is
               | having the same problem in reverse with PV (you might
               | well be able to fit some of the much smaller flexible PV
               | systems I've seen around here in Berlin into oversized
               | luggage).
               | 
               | (Sure, I get that big projects aren't exactly the same as
               | small ones... but usually that makes big things cheaper,
               | not more expensive, even for home PV vs. park PV).
        
           | jebarker wrote:
           | We need both. There's plenty of wealthy people that can
           | afford to go solar and could arguably have a bigger
           | environmental impact if they did since they often also have
           | large homes, big cars etc. If they don't feel strongly about
           | doing it for altruistic reasons then subsidies are a useful
           | tool to get them to take the plunge. Without subsidies
           | there's really no economic argument for them to do it since
           | the break even times are long and they probably aren't too
           | worried about utility costs.
        
             | wannacboatmovie wrote:
             | Taking one single family home solar does not provide a
             | measurable environmental impact in aggregate.
             | 
             | OP doesn't have to pay the electric bill anymore, but the
             | average residential solar install exceeds $30k before
             | credits. Someone has to pay off that loan...
             | 
             | Not to mention the Chinese factory that manufactured the
             | solar panels is probably dumping toxic waste chemicals into
             | the local drinking water unabated. We're all too busy
             | patting ourselves on the back for saving the world to
             | consider the impact of the whole lifecycle.
        
               | jebarker wrote:
               | > Taking one single family home solar does not provide a
               | measurable environmental impact in aggregate.
               | 
               | In order for large numbers of homes to go solar,
               | individual homes need to go solar. Are you saying we just
               | shouldn't bother with solar and EVs because not everyone
               | is going to do it? May aswell just stop donating to
               | charity too right?
               | 
               | > Someone has to pay off that loan...
               | 
               | I think the OP is probably paying for the loan
               | themselves. The subsidies are just a small part of the
               | total cost.
               | 
               | > probably dumping toxic waste chemicals...
               | 
               | Again, I think everyone would agree that it'd be better
               | if the solar panel production process was totally clean,
               | but the fact it isn't yet doesn't stop solar being a net
               | win.
        
               | underlipton wrote:
               | >In order for large numbers of homes to go solar,
               | individual homes need to go solar.
               | 
               | Assuming that SFH remain the standard. Even with ADUs,
               | that changes. (Idea: subsidize only based on the presence
               | of multifamily on a lot?)
               | 
               | >I think the OP is probably paying for the loan
               | themselves.
               | 
               | Hm. Knock-on effect. That homeowner now has to command
               | the income to pay for the loan. That changes his job
               | choice, consumption habits. Maybe his boss feels that he
               | has to pay him more to keep him happy (and not another
               | worker). If he has to sell, price has to be higher in
               | order to break even/get a return. Solar is _probably_ a
               | good thing for municipal expenses, re: less strain on the
               | power grid, but you also get a better turn in that regard
               | converting multi-family or non-residential buildings.
        
               | _aavaa_ wrote:
               | The average solar install _only_ costs 30k in large part
               | to tens of thousands of people pay that cost to bring it
               | out.
               | 
               | That being said, the costs panels themselves make up ~12%
               | of that cost: https://www.nrel.gov/solar/market-research-
               | analysis/solar-in...
               | 
               | Also worth pointing out, in 13 years the cost of panels
               | dropped by almost 90%.
        
             | tuatoru wrote:
             | > There's plenty of wealthy people that can afford to go
             | solar ... subsidies are a useful tool to get them to take
             | the plunge.
             | 
             | So you are in favour of taking taxes from the poor to give
             | to the rich. Good to know.
             | 
             | Wealthy people's impact disproportionately comes from plane
             | travel. That is highly polluting but nothing is being done
             | about that.
        
               | jebarker wrote:
               | Wealthy people pay much more in taxes than poor people.
               | One use of taxes I am in favor of is "nudges" to achieve
               | desirable outcomes for all. This is an example of that.
               | 
               | Bringing up plane travel is "whataboutism".
        
           | outside1234 wrote:
           | Most of the IRA has actually been spent in red states and
           | rural areas
        
           | choilive wrote:
           | We do. Through community solar programs low/medium income
           | households can get anywhere from 10%-50% off their
           | electricity supply costs.
        
           | epistasis wrote:
           | That's an odd way of looking at it.
           | 
           | Those who are most able to pay for it are those who are
           | paying for the highest initial costs, lowering the costs for
           | everyone else by improvements in the technology, and making
           | it easier for others to adopt later. Early adopters take lots
           | of risk on things not working out well, and learning what
           | things can go wrong and how to fix them (at additional
           | expense, too.)
           | 
           | This is much better than those who are least able to pay
           | being made to shoulder the cost and risks of being early
           | adopters.
        
             | plandis wrote:
             | It's literally a government handout for people wealthy
             | enough to buy more expensive cars and solar.
             | 
             | That money should have been spent to fund R&D/capital
             | expenditures to make cheaper electric vehicles and solar
             | cells for everyone, TBH.
        
               | knappe wrote:
               | Which would be great and all, but they already exist. But
               | rather than take advantage of the cheaper existing solar
               | panels and electric cars we'd rather impose massive
               | tariffs on them because of the country making them.
        
               | epistasis wrote:
               | That money _is_ spent to fund the capital expenditures
               | and the on-the-production-line R &D that drives down
               | costs.
               | 
               | That money that subsidizes purchases of more expensive
               | products also incentivizes all those factories, the
               | things that make them cheaper in the future.
               | 
               | > That money should have been spent to fund R&D/capital
               | expenditures to make cheaper electric vehicles and solar
               | cells for everyone, TBH
               | 
               | If you can convert this vague statement into a policy
               | with real impacts, there would be tons of people that
               | would love to hear it. Otherwise, it's just wishing the
               | world were different, without a path to completion.
               | 
               | Should we all have free energy? Of course! But how do we
               | do it. I'm all ears and hope that you have come up with a
               | defensible policy. (Though ideally you should have shared
               | it 4 years ago, because it's going to be a long time
               | before we have another shot at setting policy, and
               | everybody was _begging_ for ideas like yours back then.)
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | > That money should have been spent to fund R&D/capital
               | expenditures to make cheaper electric vehicles and solar
               | cells for everyone, TBH.
               | 
               | It kinda was, it's just that it was spend in China and
               | the US government got the money back by putting tariffs
               | on the imports.
               | 
               | The tariffs are paid by the importer, whose customers
               | also gets a government subsidy paid for by the tariffs
               | that the electorate is told are paid by the exporter, so
               | they get to feel like they're getting a good deal and the
               | voters get to feel patriotic, and why isn't my MSCI China
               | investment doing better...
        
             | yowzadave wrote:
             | Isn't TFA about how the technology is not resulting in
             | lowered costs for end users? What are you suggesting would
             | change the dynamic described in the article?
        
               | epistasis wrote:
               | There's two very very different things under discussion
               | here,
               | 
               | 1) TFA, with manufacturers using their limited production
               | capacity to target the highest margin customers, the ones
               | that overpay the most.
               | 
               | 2) green energy subsidies, in the comment I'm replying
               | to.
               | 
               | In the first case, the price insensitive customers are
               | the ones paying for a build out of capacity, and taking
               | on greater risk while doing it.
               | 
               | But in the comment that I'm replying to, the poster was
               | commenting on "benefits" which is presumably the lower
               | cost of electricity, and those with the least also have
               | the greatest need for lower costs. Presumably this is
               | about residential solar/storage, or at least I
               | interpreted it to be. Lower costs in solar are not having
               | much of an impact at the moment due to the high cost of
               | the regulatory structure that we use in the US; Australia
               | has a far far far lower solar installation cost, <5x per
               | Watt. If there's disparity in the availability of our
               | overpriced residential solar, it's due to those with less
               | generally being renters rather than owners. So their
               | landlord makes the decision about residential solar
               | versus grid electricity.
               | 
               | And for green energy subsidies on utility solar/storage,
               | the question gets even _more_ complicated because falling
               | electricity generation costs are not something that the
               | utility wants to pass on, since most in the US are
               | regulated monopolies and have no incentive to ever lower
               | prices.
               | 
               | In any case, the existence of the subsidy is not the core
               | problem, it's the mismatch between decision makers and
               | beneficiaries.
        
           | skybrian wrote:
           | This seems like an argument for utility-scale solar and
           | batteries, which can be used by everyone. The do-it-yourself
           | approach makes more sense for people who own their own home
           | and can invest in improving it. That's going to skew towards
           | wealthier people who live in suburban and rural areas.
        
           | laidoffamazon wrote:
           | The domestic manufacturing component is helpful to many of
           | the people in the "Battery belt" and in auto manufacturing!
        
           | ben_w wrote:
           | *Waves from Germany* We have self-install balcony PV systems
           | starting at a few hundred euros:
           | https://www.obi.de/p/8073827/absaar-flexibles-
           | balkonkraftwer...
           | 
           | I've been to the US a few times, seen AC hanging out of the
           | windows all over the place.
           | 
           | If you can do that, and Germany can do this, why can't you
           | also do this?
           | 
           | Now sure, it won't cover 100% of demand, but it will help
           | many of the poorest.
        
             | underlipton wrote:
             | HOA and lease restrictions. Also depends on what exposures
             | you have. One place I lived was exclusively western, the
             | other eastern.
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | Rhetorically: Do HOA/lease rules that forbid PV not also
               | prohibit AC dangling out the window?
               | 
               | If they allow one and prohibit the other, can they not be
               | changed to allow something else that also dangles from
               | the window?
        
               | underlipton wrote:
               | There'll often be a broad restriction of adornment of any
               | kind outside of a strict list, and/or at the discretion
               | of the HOA/property manager. Many don't allow window AC
               | units. There's a general air of paranoia about anything
               | that could potentially bring down perceived property
               | values, or that might otherwise project a sense that the
               | neighborhood is anything other than a Flanderization of
               | affluence. (There's also a element of social control.)
               | Think historical preservation codes, but for a pile of
               | sticks built in the 80s or 90s.
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | Ah, I see.
               | 
               | For the whole "land of the free" and "free market" thing,
               | the US seems very _not that_?
        
           | iamleppert wrote:
           | Probably found out about the tax credit while wine tasting,
           | diving a Tesla and trading crypto while on the way to buy a
           | new house with RSU's right after was given a bonus for new
           | internal tool development.
        
           | j-bos wrote:
           | Agreed with the caveat, I'm from a lower income area where
           | solar has been on the up. Panels would get stolen often
           | enough to warrant thoughful consideration.
        
         | bluecalm wrote:
         | What do you use for energy storage and how much can you store?
         | When we were considering solar panel solution for our small
         | apartment complex that was the major cost and the reason we
         | decided against a few years ago.
        
           | NotSammyHagar wrote:
           | It's getting cheaper all the time, look at tesla powerwalls
           | and many other companies are using them. But the really cheap
           | thing to do it get an older EV like a leaf, they are much
           | much less per kwh than standalone cars.
        
         | SoftTalker wrote:
         | It's great now but when it starts to degrade and needs
         | maintenance and replacement that's now entirely your problem,
         | there is no utility with a huge staff of electricians and
         | linesmen ready to deal with that on a sub-zero winter day or in
         | the middle of a rainy night.
        
           | jebarker wrote:
           | With this kind of setup you can stay connected to the grid.
           | In the event that your solar and storage fail unexpectedly
           | you can still pay for grid electricity.
        
         | hedora wrote:
         | The thing is, we paid $50,000 to drive a brand new, mid trim
         | line kia 99kwh ev9 off the lot. It supposedly will also support
         | V2H with an upcoming update.
         | 
         | They're moving production of that model to Georgia, for what
         | it's worth.
         | 
         | Anyway, the lightning looks great. It's definitely a tempting
         | replacement for our ICE truck.
        
           | GseLlc wrote:
           | It's an amazing truck and you'll never go back to ICE!
        
           | r00fus wrote:
           | There was a recent article about Kia reconsidering the EV9
           | factory line in GA since the incoming Trump admin is likely
           | to squash the IRA/BBB stuff Biden set up - specifically the
           | $7500 tax credit for EVs.
           | 
           | As an EV6 owner I strongly considered the EV9 - which
           | apparently fixes some of the annoyances of the EV6 and other
           | eGMP vehicles.
        
           | xattt wrote:
           | I'm conflicted about buying Kia again. I've got a recent
           | model Sorento and the dealer where I have to take it is
           | dogshit. I say I have to, because the next dealer is a $50
           | bridge toll and 2-hour drive away.
           | 
           | I've been charged for things that should be under warranty.
           | They refused to do a permanent fix for a recall after they
           | did a temporary fix. Dealing with corporate is an exercise in
           | being gaslit and living in a Kafkaesque nightmare.
           | 
           | Kia and possibly Hyundai are in purgatory right now: they're
           | innovating and making cars that no one else is. Their dealer
           | network, however, can have some sleazy used car sales
           | personalities and make for a terrible experience that can
           | ruin your week.
           | 
           | Pick your poison.
        
         | laidoffamazon wrote:
         | Unfortunately due to recent events this will likely be nearly
         | fully repealed for anybody that might be interested in doing
         | this in the future.
        
       | happyopossum wrote:
       | This is partially a case of _not_ moving the goalposts - if you
       | run an inflation calculator [0] on 25k from 2017-now, it comes in
       | right around 32.5k, and you can definitely order a Tesla for less
       | than that today.
       | 
       | [0]https://data.bls.gov/cgi-
       | bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=25000&year1=20...
        
         | csours wrote:
         | > 1993 Geo Metro pricing starts at $1,410 for the Metro XFi
         | Hatchback 2D, which had a starting MSRP of $7,296 when new. The
         | range-topping 1993 Metro LSi Convertible 2D starts at $1,481
         | today, originally priced from $10,749.
         | 
         | https://www.kbb.com/geo/metro/1993/
         | 
         | > $10,749 -> $23,288
         | 
         | https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=10749&year1=19...
        
       | Lance_ET_Compte wrote:
       | Electric cars will not "save the environment".
       | 
       | Their purpose is to "save the US automotive industry".
       | 
       | The idea that billionaires and car manufacturers would be
       | motivated by anything else is laughable.
       | 
       | Support public transportation.
        
         | epistasis wrote:
         | As somebody who wants less cars and more public transportation,
         | I think your messaging is way off.
         | 
         | This is an all-hands-on-deck situation where we need to pursue
         | all options simultaneously. And there are huge swathes of our
         | country that we will not be able to transition out of suburban
         | sprawl into transit-friendly planning in the necessary amount
         | of time.
         | 
         | So in 2050, there will still be cars, and we can not build
         | enough public transportation in time to solve climate change
         | (and in fact we won't transition to EVs fast enough to solve
         | climate change, if we rely on EVs alone either...)
        
         | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
         | Maybe if domestic automakers fall to Chinese competition, the
         | US will start properly investing in public transportation like
         | it did a century ago.
        
         | asadotzler wrote:
         | No, wrong. Completely wrong. The US auto industry doesn't
         | believe EVs will save them--they're certain it's going to kill
         | them or almost, but the EV transition is being forced by CARB +
         | ROW (Europe, China and Korea) which don't really give a shit
         | whether the US auto companies like it or not. They will chase
         | China and Korea or die. It's really that simple and has nothing
         | to do with what they want and entirely what they're forced into
         | by global competition and regulation.
        
       | snakeyjake wrote:
       | There are inexpensive EVs in the US. A local dealer has new
       | Nissan Leafs available for $24.5k (after rebates) all day, every
       | day.
       | 
       | There are also inexpensive cars. A local dealer has new
       | Mitsubishi Mirage Hatchbacks available for $17k all day, every
       | day.
       | 
       | People don't want them.
       | 
       | They're not being tricked, cajoled, strong-armed, forced,
       | pressured, misguided, or hoodwinked.
       | 
       | American consumers WANT and CAN AFFORD gigantic $65k SUVs with
       | heated and cooled seats and wifi and huge screens that take up
       | the entire dashboard.
       | 
       | "Oh but they're prioritizing higher-marg..." yeah no shit
       | Sherlock literally all a consumer has to do is not buy one of
       | those.
       | 
       | But Toyota can slap a limited edition retro paint job on an SUV,
       | mark it up $5k and the dealer can mark it up $10k and people will
       | walk past the cheap cars to sign up for a waiting list to get a
       | chance to earn an opportunity to put down a non-refundable
       | deposit to maybe, potentially, pay $75k for an middling SUV with
       | a limited edition retro paint job.
        
         | nunez wrote:
         | People don't want Leafs because they come with too many
         | compromises.
         | 
         | Small battery, slow, weird and phased-out charging port; list
         | goes on. It's a first-gen EV through and through.
         | 
         | However, Nissan's second EV, the Ariya, is selling much better!
         | Crossover CUV (which America wants), bigger battery, fast,
         | stylish, starts at $39.5k.
         | 
         | We also now have sub-$30k used Tesla's out in the market too.
        
           | xur17 wrote:
           | > We also now have sub-$30k used Tesla's out in the market
           | too.
           | 
           | I purchased a 2023 Model 3 from Hertz over the summer for
           | $23k, which I've been very happy with. I'm not eligible for
           | either tax rebate (used or new), so 1 year ago I would have
           | paid north of $40k for it.
           | 
           | There are definitely some good deals out there.
        
           | syndicatedjelly wrote:
           | People not wanting a Leaf is how I got mine for dirt cheap. I
           | also happen to live in a state with an extraordinary EV tax
           | credit.
           | 
           | The annoyances of the Leaf are overstated, and the benefits
           | are way better than people give credit for.
           | 
           | If people do what's popular, they have to accept a popularity
           | tax for the "keeping up with the Joneses" lifestyle
        
         | pornel wrote:
         | These are cheap "city" EVs with small batteries and slow
         | charging. They have all the compromises and annoyances that
         | people don't like about EVs.
         | 
         | The desirable EVs have 2x-3x more range and charge 3x-4x
         | faster. That completely changes the equation, because that
         | makes them good enough to be the primary/only car. Even for
         | people who don't have a charger at home, even for people who
         | need to drive long distances.
        
         | Hilift wrote:
         | All true, and there is still a viable used car market. Even
         | cars that may require a bit more maintenance are a win by a
         | large margin. Some things are just expensive. Ever price out a
         | replacement 8" entertainment console in a vehicle? Probably
         | ~$2,500 and up. Replacement LED headlights? Over $1,000. (Third
         | party is your friend there). Regular maintenance like water
         | pumps, brakes, serpentine belts are economical by comparison.
        
       | uprootdev wrote:
       | I dream of public transport and not having to drive.
        
       | knowitnone wrote:
       | After reading some of the comments, the next questions, why are
       | automakers not building plants in Africa? Cheap labor force,
       | cheap land, probably needs education and training. China is
       | courting Africa, is the US?
        
         | jklinger410 wrote:
         | France has dibs on Africa. Plus, the American manufacturing
         | industry was our gift to and remains our primary bargaining
         | chip with CCP. We wouldn't dare give it to anyone else.
        
           | selimthegrim wrote:
           | Tell Mali and Niger that
        
         | HeyLaughingBoy wrote:
         | Government stability? Supply chain? Cost of delivery? Just the
         | first few guesses off the top of my head.
         | 
         | > probably needs education and training
         | 
         | That's not helping!
        
         | Dracophoenix wrote:
         | Firstly, Africa is a continent, not a sovereign nation or a
         | monolithic politico-economic bloc. Cars aren't manufactured in
         | every country in Asia, but primarily East and Southeast Asia.
         | Asia proper extends from Anatolia to the Bering Strait, where
         | many countries in between have no automobile industry whether
         | domestic or foreign.
         | 
         | Secondly, there are plenty of reasons to avoid doing business
         | in the many African countries, not the least of which are
         | political instability, low literacy rates of the native
         | populations, unfavorable and inconsistent economic policies
         | (tariffs, board membership requirements, etc.), as well as
         | inefficient and corrupt bureaucracies. That last one can create
         | legal issues for you if you run a business incorporated in the
         | US.
        
         | kylehotchkiss wrote:
         | Of all the places in the world to build factories, you choose
         | Africa? Not India, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia? Nothing
         | personal against Africa but there are just a lot of options
         | that aren't china with better industrial policy and want to
         | build stuff to export.
        
         | kjkjadksj wrote:
         | US automarket is not a free market is why. Protective tariffs
         | and other taxes or else we'd already be driving something
         | hammered out of bangladesh as of decades ago.
        
         | bitsage wrote:
         | Recent Japanese and Chinese automotive plants have gone up in
         | the more stable countries on the continent such as Ghana,
         | Egypt, and Kenya, but I assume this production will all be for
         | local consumption.
        
       | bane wrote:
       | I can't believe that the average price of a car in the U.S. is
       | almost $50k. For rapidly depreciating assets.
       | 
       | Here I am working out TCO costs for a range of mid-sized cars for
       | my next purchase, and trying to decide if the extra $2k for a
       | Prius Prime over a Prius will beat the differential in fuel costs
       | for my driving situation. I feel like a chump, but I know it's
       | the smarter thing to do with my money.
       | 
       | I coworker of mine just spent $100k on a regular old pickup truck
       | that is planned to spend less than 5% of the time doing anything
       | other than commuting him back and forth to work. It doesn't fit
       | in any of the parking garages around here, or in his garage -- he
       | has to park it at the other side of a surface lot because it
       | doesn't fit in the normal spots. It gets like 11 mpg and uses the
       | 92 octane fuel.
       | 
       | Americans won't buy cheap cars, they won't buy upmarket small
       | cars, but they'll burn their children's college fund into the
       | ground for a 2 second gain on 0-60 and bad ergonomics.
       | 
       | I can afford the fancy car, but I'd rather turn $100k into $200k
       | in my index funds and buy an entire apartment in Spain
       | overlooking the Mediterranean with the gains.
       | 
       | We can have nice things, but this is why we can't have affordable
       | things.
        
         | bluGill wrote:
         | Some Americans. The average car in the US is 12 years old. I
         | just checked my local craigslist, most cars of that age are
         | under 10k, and almost none are more than 20k. Since that is
         | average we can assume cars of that age will run (with
         | maintenance) for another decade and so shouldn't be very
         | expensive. Of course at that age almost nothing is electric.
        
           | JeremyNT wrote:
           | I do think part of it is how darned _long_ cars last now.
           | 
           | I have an 18 year old car that I purchased used long ago and
           | currently has no mechanical issues. I've had a few repairs
           | but nothing terribly expensive. I have no interest in
           | replacing it.
           | 
           | When you think about it, people who are frugal will buy
           | practical and cost effective cars and drive them for a decade
           | or more (that is, if they buy a car at all!). That means they
           | either never buy new at all, or when they do they do so only
           | seldom.
           | 
           | People who are chasing the new shiny will continue to churn
           | through new shiny. And of course they want to pay a lot to
           | get only the shiniest.
           | 
           | So I can see why the average new car cost would creep up,
           | because buying a new car _at all_ is a luxury in most cases.
        
         | wannacboatmovie wrote:
         | > coworker of mine just spent $100k on a regular old pickup
         | truck
         | 
         | > It gets like 11 mpg and uses the 92 octane fuel.
         | 
         | I understand hating on pickup trucks is an easy way to farm
         | upvotes on HN, but there is no 'regular pickup truck' in
         | existence that gets 11 mpg. The closest that comes to that is
         | the F-150 Raptor with turbocharged V8 which is a preposterous
         | performance vehicle with a racing engine. It is a luxury item.
         | Yet for some reason we don't criticize people with the same
         | disdain who buy and drive sports cars which get as bad or even
         | worse mpg. I guess the Lambo drivers never need to haul lumber.
         | 
         | The F-150 is also offered in hybrid (which gets > double that
         | mpg) and all electric drivetrains.
         | 
         | I will make the equally presumptuous assumption that since
         | you've narrowed your choices to "Prius or Prius" you harbor
         | some grudges against pickup owners.
        
           | danielcampos93 wrote:
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecnS1Ygf0o0 I've been waiting
           | for the chance to use this
        
           | comte7092 wrote:
           | The grudges are valid.
           | 
           | The default in America is to make everything out to be
           | individualistic, but the rest of us have to bear the very
           | real costs of the externality of pickups, not just limited to
           | pollution but also safety, land use, etc.
        
             | euroderf wrote:
             | I think you just made the case for some flavor or another
             | of socialism.
        
           | plagiarist wrote:
           | Lamborghini drivers obeying the traffic rules aren't creating
           | a hazard.
           | 
           | Aftermarket headlights blazing directly into the eyes of
           | oncoming drivers are creating a hazard. As is the fact that
           | it takes up a lot of road space and has poor visibility for
           | small objects in front of the hood.
        
             | 01HNNWZ0MV43FF wrote:
             | It is also the smugness that gets me. Huge trucks are a
             | signal saying "Fuck you, got mine". Their first strike, I'm
             | merely retaliating
        
           | jerlam wrote:
           | The external effects of large pickup trucks are drastically
           | more than that of a small sports car, in ways that are more
           | immediate than climate change.
           | 
           | Large pickup trucks take up a lot more space on the road and
           | parking lots, are harder to see around, and when they get
           | into accidents they cause a lot more damage and injuries to
           | people both in and out of cars. There is a very different
           | visceral response to a large pickup truck tailgating you with
           | its driver perched above you, than a Lambo or 911 doing the
           | same.
        
             | novaleaf wrote:
             | I think it's a strange argument: that buying a truck is
             | "worse" than buying a sports car. I think the term "apples
             | and oranges" is applicable here. The former are both
             | vehicles and the latter are both fruit, but otherwise have
             | fairly different cost/benefit.
        
               | 01HNNWZ0MV43FF wrote:
               | It is worse. Pickup drivers are by and large bad people.
        
           | silisili wrote:
           | Agreed. It's really amazing what they've done in recent
           | years.
           | 
           | I ended up in a fullsize primarily because I got it cheaper
           | than the midsizes I was looking at. The midsize market is
           | priced really oddly.
           | 
           | Anywho, I was blown away that it's getting me 23MPG. That's
           | what my previous midsize was giving me. That's nearly double
           | what fullsizes got in the 90s.
        
           | acdha wrote:
           | > there is no 'regular pickup truck' in existence that gets
           | 11 mpg
           | 
           | Point but e.g. the 2024 Silverado gets 12mpg in city driving.
           | Go to any office parking lot here and you'll see a lot of
           | that size truck which have clearly never been used harder
           | than going to Costco - and even the better ones are barely
           | approaching  2/3  of the mpg of the pickup my grandparents
           | bought in the 1980s.
           | 
           | I do agree that from a pollution standpoint we should treat
           | all inefficient vehicles as the problem but large trucks and
           | SUVs have significant immediate downsides for everyone around
           | them. They're far more lethal when they hit pedestrians or
           | smaller vehicles, they produce higher tire and brake
           | particulates which are known to cause health issues, they
           | take more space to park, and at least where I live there are
           | streets which could previously handle bidirectional traffic
           | but now require someone to pull over to let oncoming traffic
           | pass because there isn't enough room for two large vehicles.
           | In contrast, sports car drivers pose less risk because
           | they're low to the ground and the drivers are far more likely
           | to see you and avoid an accident.
        
             | wannacboatmovie wrote:
             | > they produce higher tire and brake particulates which are
             | known to cause health issues
             | 
             | Interesting you mention tire particulates, because there is
             | nothing worse for this than - brace yourself - electric
             | vehicles.
             | 
             | https://grist.org/transportation/electric-vehicles-are-a-
             | cli...
        
               | 01HNNWZ0MV43FF wrote:
               | We're getting the worst of both worlds with these
               | atrocious EV trucks - Big, heavy, and relying on electric
               | torque to be bigger and heavier.
        
               | acdha wrote:
               | I'm aware but that article is overstating the problem:
               | the issue is weight so the problem comes back to the form
               | factor. Every office worker LARPing as a rancher is
               | making the world worse buying an unnecessary truck
               | regardless of the power train. EV trucks and SUVs are
               | bad, but so are the ICE versions.
        
           | bane wrote:
           | > but there is no 'regular pickup truck' in existence
           | 
           | I grew up in deep country. I've owned my share of pickups.
           | When you need them, they're invaluable. When you don't,
           | they're basically the most inconvenient daily drivers you can
           | have short of a box truck, an RV, or a main battle tank.
           | Outside of a fairly narrow range of medium-sized hauling
           | activities, they aren't really even terribly good at carrying
           | things.
           | 
           | I hate talking about things as "it's more than anybody could
           | need" because you end up with needs-based conceptualization
           | of lifestyles with people eating diets of only sweet
           | potatoes, commuting on onewheels, and living in Hong-Kong
           | style coffin apartments. But these things are not only
           | obnoxious main character syndrome demonstrators, they're
           | actively dangerous to everybody in and around them even when
           | they're following the rules of the road.
           | 
           | If I was king for a day, I'd make driving one require a
           | special class of license and tax them extra if they aren't
           | being used for active work purposes like they're intended.
           | They should be in the same class of vehicle as commercial box
           | trucks, because that's what they're supposed to be for.
           | 
           | I wouldn't be at all surprised if some type of vehicle fad
           | takes over the U.S. at some point where people just start
           | driving converted box trucks or RVs around as daily drivers,
           | then complain that all the parking garages and train
           | overpasses are too low for their 13 and a half foot tall
           | lifestyle decisions.
        
         | ac29 wrote:
         | > Americans won't buy cheap cars
         | 
         | Sure they will, they'll even buy cheap EVs.
         | 
         | The highest lifetime EV sales in the US is the Leaf, Model 3/Y,
         | and Bolt. They aren't at the top of the list because they're
         | the best cars on the market, but because they are the cheapest.
        
         | dogleash wrote:
         | > Americans won't buy cheap cars
         | 
         | Not from a new car dealership, no. They'll buy cheap cars, but
         | the mere act of driving a new car off the lot is a huge
         | deprecation event in the life of the car. Why would price
         | sensitive buyers go to the dealership?
        
         | stocknoob wrote:
         | Your index fund grows on the activity of people who spend 100k
         | on a consumable item. Good for them, they can work their whole
         | life if they like. You can relax and let compounding do the
         | rest.
        
         | FactKnower69 wrote:
         | If you're an American wondering why you're forced to buy shitty
         | overpriced Teslas instead of those $15k BYD Dolphins, here's
         | Janet Yellen screeching about how unfair it is that China uses
         | its labor force to manufacture consumer goods instead of
         | creating millions of bullshit make-work financialization jobs
         | like good liberal democracies
         | https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/yellen-intends-warn-...
        
       | 1970-01-01 wrote:
       | WSJ is entitled to their opinions, however they conveniently
       | forgot about the plethora of Herz used EVs onsale right now.
       | 
       | https://www.hertzcarsales.com/used-electric-vehicles.htm
        
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