[HN Gopher] AlphaProof's Greatest Hits
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       AlphaProof's Greatest Hits
        
       Author : rishicomplex
       Score  : 107 points
       Date   : 2024-11-17 17:20 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
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       | wslh wrote:
       | If you were to bet on solving problems like "P versus NP" using
       | these technologies combined with human augmentation (or vice
       | versa), what would be the provable time horizon for achieving
       | such a solution? I think we should assume that the solution is
       | also expressible in the current language of math/logic.
        
         | hiddencost wrote:
         | No one is focused on those. They're much more focused on more
         | rote problems.
         | 
         | You might find them used to accelerate research math by helping
         | them with lemmas and checking for errors, and formalizing
         | proofs. That seems realistic in the next couple of years.
        
           | nybsjytm wrote:
           | There are some AI guys like Christian Szegedy who predict
           | that AI will be a "superhuman mathematician," solving
           | problems like the Riemann hypothesis, by the end of 2026. I
           | don't take it very seriously, but that kind of
           | prognostication is definitely out there.
        
         | zarzavat wrote:
         | Probably a bad example, P vs NP is the most likely of the
         | millennium problems to be unsolvable, so the answer may be
         | "never".
         | 
         | I'll bet the most technical open problems will be the ones to
         | fall first. What AIs lack in creativity they make up for in
         | ability to absorb a large quantity of technical concepts.
        
           | wslh wrote:
           | Thank you for the response. I have a follow-up question:
           | Could these AIs contribute to advancements in resolving the P
           | vs NP problem? I recall that the solution to Fermat's Last
           | Theorem relied on significant progress in elliptic curves.
           | Could we now say that these AI systems might play a similar
           | role in advancing our understanding of P vs NP?
        
             | ccppurcell wrote:
             | Just my guess as a mathematician. But if LLMs are good for
             | anything it will be for finding surprising connections and
             | applying our existing tools in ways beyond human search.
             | There's a huge space of tools and problems, and human
             | intuition and brute force searching can only go so far. I
             | can imagine that LLMs might start to find combinatorial
             | proofs of topological theorems, maybe even novel theorems.
             | Or vice versa. But I find it difficult to imagine them
             | inventing new tools and objects that are really useful.
        
               | nemonemo wrote:
               | Do you have a past example where this already-proven
               | theorem/new tools/objects would have been only possible
               | by human but not AI? Any such example would make your
               | arguments much more approachable by non-mathematicians.
        
         | uptownfunk wrote:
         | The hard part is in the creation of new math to solve these
         | problems not in the use of existing mathematics. So new objects
         | (groups rings fields) etc have to be theorized, their
         | properties understood, and then that new machinery used to
         | crack the existing problems. I think we will get to a place
         | (around 5 years) where AI will be able to solve these problems
         | and create these new objects. I don't think it's one of
         | technology I think it's more financial. Meaning, there isn't
         | much money to be made doing this (try and justify it for
         | yourself) and so the lack of focus here. I think this is a red
         | herring and there is a gold mine in there some where but it
         | will likely take someone with a lot of cash to fund it out of
         | passion (Vlad Tenev / Harmonic, or Zuck and Meta AI, or the
         | Google / AlphaProof guys) but in the big tech world, they are
         | just a minnow project in a sea of competing initiatives. And so
         | that leaves us at the mercy of open research, which if it is a
         | compute bound problem, is one that may take 10-20 years to
         | crack. I hope I see a solution to RH in my lifetime (and in
         | language that I can understand)
        
           | wslh wrote:
           | I understand that a group of motivated individuals, even
           | without significant financial resources, could attempt to
           | tackle these challenges, much like the way free and open-
           | source software (FOSS) is developed. The key ingredients
           | would be motivation and intelligence, as well as a shared
           | passion for advancing mathematics and solving foundational
           | problems.
        
             | uptownfunk wrote:
             | Ok but how do you get around needing a 10k or 100k h100
             | cluster
        
               | wslh wrote:
               | It is well known that cloud services like Google Cloud
               | subsidizes some projects and we don't even know if in a
               | few years improvements will arise.
        
       | sbierwagen wrote:
       | More information about the language used in the proofs:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lean_(proof_assistant)
        
       | sincerely wrote:
       | in the first question, why do they even specify [?]n[?] (and
       | [?]2n[?] and so on) when n is an integer?
        
         | rishicomplex wrote:
         | Alpha need not be an integer, we have to prove that it is
        
           | sincerely wrote:
           | Should have read more carefully, thank you!
        
       | Robotenomics wrote:
       | "Only 5/509 participants solved P6"
        
         | nybsjytm wrote:
         | This has to come with an asterisk, which is that participants
         | had approximately 90 minutes to work on each problem while
         | AlphaProof computed for three days for each of the ones it
         | solved. Looking at this problem specifically, I think that many
         | participants could have solved P6 without the time limit.
         | 
         | (I think you should be very skeptical of anyone who hypes
         | AlphaProof without mentioning this - which is not to suggest
         | that there's nothing there to hype)
        
           | auggierose wrote:
           | Certainly an interesting information that AlphaProof needed
           | three days. But does it matter for evaluating the importance
           | of this result? No.
        
             | nybsjytm wrote:
             | I agree that the result is important regardless. But the
             | tradeoff of computing time/cost with problem complexity is
             | hugely important to think about. Finding a proof in a
             | formal language is trivially solvable in theory since you
             | just have to search through possible proofs until you find
             | one ending with the desired statement. The whole practical
             | question is how much time it takes.
             | 
             | Three days per problem is, by many standards, a
             | 'reasonable' amount of time. However there are still
             | unanswered questions, notably that 'three days' is not
             | really meaningful in and of itself. How parallelized was
             | the computation; what was the hardware capacity? And how
             | optimized is AlphaProof for IMO-type problems (problems
             | which, among other things, all have short solutions using
             | elementary tools)? These are standard kinds of critical
             | questions to ask.
        
               | dash2 wrote:
               | Though, if you start solving problems that humans can't
               | or haven't solved, then questions of capacity won't
               | matter much. A speedup in the movement of the maths
               | frontier would be worth many power stations.
        
               | nybsjytm wrote:
               | For some time a 'superhuman math AI' could be useful for
               | company advertising and getting the attention of VCs. But
               | eventually it would be pretty clear that innovative math
               | research, with vanishingly few exceptions, isn't very
               | useful for making revenue. (I am a mathematician and this
               | is meant with nothing but respect for math research.)
        
               | airstrike wrote:
               | "Making revenue" is far from being the only metric by
               | which we deem something worthy.
        
       | nybsjytm wrote:
       | Why have they still not released a paper aside from a press
       | release? I have to admit I still don't know how auspicious it is
       | that running google hardware for three days apiece was able to
       | find half-page long solutions, given that the promise has always
       | been to solve the Riemann hypothesis with the click of a button.
       | But of course I do recognize that it's a big achievement relative
       | to previous work in automatic theorem proving.
        
         | whatshisface wrote:
         | I don't know why so few people realize this, but by solving any
         | of the problems their performance is superhuman for most
         | reasonable definitions of human.
         | 
         | Talking about things like solving the Reimman hypothesis in so
         | many years assumes a little too much about the difficulty of
         | problems that we can't even begin to conceive of a solution
         | for. A better question is what can happen when everybody has
         | access to above average reasoning. Our society is structured
         | around avoiding confronting people with difficult questions,
         | except when they are intended to get the answer wrong.
        
           | GregarianChild wrote:
           | We know that any theorem that is provable at all (in the
           | chosen foundation of mathematics) can be found by patiently
           | enumerating all possible proofs. So, in order to evaluate
           | AlphaProof's achievements, we'd need to know how much of a
           | shortcut AlphaProof achieved. A good proxy for that would be
           | the total energy usage for training and running AlphaProof. A
           | moderate proxy for that would be the number of GPUs / TPUs
           | that were run for 3 days. If it's somebody's laptop, it would
           | be super impressive. If it's 1000s of TPUs, then less so.
        
             | Onavo wrote:
             | > _We know that any theorem that is provable at all (in the
             | chosen foundation of mathematics) can be found by patiently
             | enumerating all possible proofs._
             | 
             | Which computer science theorem is this from?
        
               | zeroonetwothree wrote:
               | It's just an obvious statement. If a proof exists, you
               | will eventually get to it.
        
               | kadoban wrote:
               | It's a direct consequence of the format of a proof.
               | They're finite-length sequences of a finite alphabet of
               | symbols, so of course they're enumerable (the same
               | algorithm you use to count works to enumerate them).
               | 
               | If you want a computer to be able to tell that it found a
               | correct proof once it enumerates it, you need a bit more
               | than that (really just the existence of automated proof
               | checkers is enough for that).
        
               | E_Bfx wrote:
               | I guess it is tautological from the definition of
               | "provable". A theorem is provable by definition if there
               | is a finite well-formulated formula that has the theorem
               | as consequence (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theorem
               | paragraph theorem in logic)
        
               | Xcelerate wrote:
               | Not sure it's a tautology. It's not obvious that a
               | recursively enumerable procedure exists for arbitrary
               | formal systems that will eventually reach all theorems
               | derivable via the axioms and transformation rules. For
               | example, if you perform depth-first traversal, you will
               | not reach all theorems.
               | 
               | Hilbert's program was a (failed) attempt to determine,
               | loosely speaking, whether there was a process or
               | procedure that could discover all mathematical truths.
               | Any theorem depends on the formal system you start with,
               | but the deeper implicit question is: where do the axioms
               | come from and can we discover all of them (answer:
               | "unknown" and "no")?
        
               | Xcelerate wrote:
               | Imagine thinking this is a recent "theorem" of computer
               | science rather than a well-known result in mathematics
               | from very long ago. People thought about the nature of
               | computation long before CS was even a thing.
        
           | zeroonetwothree wrote:
           | Well, multiply two large numbers instantly is a superhuman
           | feat a calculator can do. I would hope we are going for a
           | higher bar, like "useful". Let's see if this can provide
           | proofs of novel results.
        
             | nybsjytm wrote:
             | It's worth emphasizing that it's been possible for years to
             | use an automatic theorem prover to prove novel results. The
             | whole problem is to get novel interesting results.
        
             | whatshisface wrote:
             | The ability to multiply two numbers superhumanly has
             | already transformed society.
        
             | rowanG077 wrote:
             | That superhuman capability of "multiplying two large
             | numbers instantly" has transformed human society like not
             | even plumbing has. I really can't see how this you could
             | not consider this useful.
        
           | nybsjytm wrote:
           | > A better question is what can happen when everybody has
           | access to above average reasoning. Our society is structured
           | around avoiding confronting people with difficult questions,
           | except when they are intended to get the answer wrong.
           | 
           | What does this have to do with a hypothetical automatic
           | theorem prover?
        
             | whatshisface wrote:
             | Logic is pretty much absent from our culture and daily
             | life, but that could be due to its limited supply.
        
               | nybsjytm wrote:
               | Being logical in social life is pretty much completely
               | different from being logical in a mathematical argument,
               | especially in a formal theorem proving environment. (Just
               | try to write any kind of cultural proposition in a formal
               | language!)
        
               | whatshisface wrote:
               | That's the way things are now, but this regime came about
               | when proving things took intense concentration and
               | specialized skills that very few people had. Contrast
               | going to look something up in a library with googling
               | something during a conversation.
        
         | GregarianChild wrote:
         | Google stopped publishing interesting AI work since they had
         | their AI lead taken away by OpenAI, and mostly with tech that
         | was pioneered, but not monetised by Google like transformers.
         | 
         | I imagine they are under pressure not to make this mistake
         | again.
        
       | throwaway713 wrote:
       | Anyone else feel like mathematics is sort of the endgame? I.e.,
       | once ML can do it better than humans, that's basically it?
        
       | sega_sai wrote:
       | I think the interface of LLM with formalized languages is really
       | the future. Because here you can formally verify every statement
       | and deal with hallucinations.
        
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