[HN Gopher] Tesla has the highest fatal accident rate of all aut...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Tesla has the highest fatal accident rate of all auto brands, study
       finds
        
       Author : MBCook
       Score  : 231 points
       Date   : 2024-11-15 20:15 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.roadandtrack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.roadandtrack.com)
        
       | RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote:
       | > So, why are Teslas -- and many other ostensibly safe cars on
       | the list -- involved in so many fatal crashes? "The models on
       | this list likely reflect a combination of driver behavior and
       | driving conditions, leading to increased crashes and fatalities,"
       | iSeeCars executive analyst Karl Brauer said in the report.
        
       | legitster wrote:
       | In a big picture, this makes sense. You can load the cars with
       | safety features, but it doesn't change the fact that these cars
       | are _very_ heavy, _very_ fast, and loaded with features that
       | reward distracted driving. In the US at least, the top killer of
       | drivers are trees on the side of the road.
        
         | ToucanLoucan wrote:
         | In a bigger picture, cars are a bad solution to the problem of
         | transportation at scale, and really always have been. As safety
         | features go up, complacency goes up, and to be blunt that's
         | combining _with_ the fact that drivers are getting consistently
         | worse overall at the skill anyway.
         | 
         | Between EV's that are much, much heavier than ICE cars and
         | SUVs/Trucks that are much larger than they need to be, vehicles
         | themselves, despite having more safety features than ever, are
         | also better at killing that they've been at a long time too.
         | 
         | We really need to get serious about improving our
         | transportation infrastructure.
        
           | randomdata wrote:
           | _> We really need to get serious about improving our
           | transportation infrastructure._
           | 
           | Better yet, we really need to consider urbanization. That way
           | everything you need is right there by your own two feet. No
           | need for any extra special transportation at all.
           | 
           | It seems people have a burning desire to live the rural
           | lifestyle, though, even in so-called cities. I'm not sure we
           | can actually overcome that pressure.
        
             | ar_lan wrote:
             | > It seems people have a burning desire to live the rural
             | lifestyle, though, even in so-called cities.
             | 
             | I just want like... to not be stacked like a sardine for
             | $3500/mo. I would gladly take a rural lifestyle if I could
             | find a job that would support it.
        
               | randomdata wrote:
               | Stacked like a sardine for $3,500/mo, yet still have to
               | travel long distances to do anything. The curse of the
               | wannabe rural city. But, as people want to (or at least
               | want to pretend to) live in a rural area, change is
               | unlikely.
        
               | oblio wrote:
               | This is a colossal failure for humanity, primarily due to
               | home ownership as an investment vehicle, plus regulatory
               | capture pushed by the car companies and oil and gas
               | companies.
               | 
               | There is no technical reason we can't have livable, quiet
               | and spacious apartments, where multiple apartment
               | buildings share a huge, enclosed backyard (almost park-
               | like, even), a setup with tons of small shops,
               | pharmacies, easy access to everything, etc.
               | 
               | Plus you can also have access to large parks, in a suburb
               | you'd never have access to those, just your limited
               | backyard.
               | 
               | But most places will never have that...
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Even nice apartments are pretty miserable places to live
               | if you have multiple small children, or engage in hobbies
               | or activities that require much equipment. Imagine coming
               | home to your apartment with a muddy mountain bike. Do you
               | haul it up to the 4th floor in the elevator and wash it
               | in your shower? It's possible to make it work but living
               | in a single-family home (or townhouse with attached
               | garage) sure makes regular life a lot easier.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | Many of us simply don't want to live in expensive urbanized
             | environments (especially in more desirable ones)--at least
             | at many points in our lives, so yeah no.
        
               | ToucanLoucan wrote:
               | I mean the problem isn't those who don't want to live in
               | cities nor is it those who want to live in cities: the
               | problem is the suburbs, which is where those two meet.
               | People who aren't in and do not desire an _actual_ rural
               | lifestyle where one has a standalone home on a large plot
               | of land in the middle of nowhere, but also don 't want a
               | condo. They want their own little plot of land, with a
               | small yard, and a standalone home.
               | 
               | And like, same. That's also me.
               | 
               | But the problem is the _actual costs of that style of
               | home_ are incredibly, heavily subsidized by the cities
               | they surround and indeed even the rural areas they
               | border, because suburbs are just... a bad goddamn way to
               | house people. They 're incredibly inefficient, basically
               | require your own personal car, require the most
               | infrastructure build-out for the smallest population,
               | require the largest footprint of services over the
               | largest area to serve the smallest number of people, etc.
               | etc.
               | 
               | And like, I don't think it's unreasonable to say if you
               | want to live this way, that's fine, but then you need to
               | _actually pay for it._ Your property taxes need to
               | reflect how much it actually costs to serve your
               | property, to build the huge number of roads needed to
               | access it, to maintain those roads, to maintain the
               | electrical grids, to maintain the water and sewage
               | services, to bus kids to schools, etc. etc. etc.
               | 
               | And yeah that's going to make suburbs WAY less appealing
               | because they're going to be fucking expensive but like,
               | the alternative is, again, everyone wanting that, and not
               | paying for it. The dense urban centers they surround
               | absolutely hemorrhage money supporting the suburbs around
               | them.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Around where I live (greater Boston metro) most of the
               | tech jobs are actually out in the suburbs/exurbubs. There
               | were basically no tech jobs in the city ~20 years ago any
               | longer. (It's mostly only changed with the establishment
               | of of satellite offices of some west coast companies.)
        
               | ToucanLoucan wrote:
               | With respect, it doesn't matter. Suburbs cost far more
               | than they bring in.
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IsMeKl-Sv0
        
               | HeatrayEnjoyer wrote:
               | Urbanization decreases costs.
        
             | Gibbon1 wrote:
             | Suburbia is this thing like commuting in a car that's great
             | as long as everyone isn't also trying to do it.
        
             | p_j_w wrote:
             | Even with heavy urbanization you'll need some form of
             | transit on top of walking. Have you ever visited any really
             | big cities (eg. Tokyo)? Every time I'm in one, I get the
             | impression they would grind to a standstill without their
             | mass transit systems.
        
               | randomdata wrote:
               | _> Have you ever visited any really big cities (eg.
               | Tokyo)_
               | 
               | Yes, these are the rural areas of which we speak.
               | Everything gets spread out and then you're stuck
               | travelling long distances to do anything, just like those
               | who live in actual rural areas. There is no question that
               | transportation is necessary in a rural area.
               | 
               | A proper urban environment, however, puts everything
               | right there in a short distance. No need to ever travel
               | beyond where your feet can take you. That's the whole
               | reason for living so close to other people.
               | 
               | But it's clear that people want to live in (or pretend to
               | live in) rural areas. It seems to be in our nature. As
               | such, there is a lot of pressure to maintain the way
               | things are. Hence the ill-conceived cries for better
               | transportation to maintain the rural way of life instead
               | of actually embracing urbanity.
        
               | ToucanLoucan wrote:
               | I would say that's better characterized as an opposition
               | to urbanization _that 's designed for and presumes the
               | ownership of cars_ by those who live there, and to that I
               | heartily agree! Gridlock-bound US cities are a nightmare
               | to navigate, but again, that is not the fault of the
               | city, that is _also_ the fault of the car and how
               | inefficient it is as a transport solution.
               | 
               | If cars simply didn't exist, our cities would not, could
               | never have, been designed the way they are, in any way.
        
               | randomdata wrote:
               | _> If cars simply didn 't exist, our cities would not,
               | could never have, been designed the way they are, in any
               | way._
               | 
               | Nah. Many cities long predate the car. They absolutely
               | were designed in the same way they are still found now,
               | aside from what are now roads were squares for people to
               | walk in. Return the road back to being a square and
               | nobody would be able to recognize that there was a car
               | era. But, so long as the people _want_ to live a rural
               | lifestyle, good luck...
        
               | CalRobert wrote:
               | Even a decent town puts most things within a walk or bike
               | ride. San Luis Obispo comes to mind as an example.
        
               | oblio wrote:
               | I've never understood the argument about small towns
               | being worse for urbanism.
               | 
               | Back in the day, before cars were widespread, everything
               | had to be close by.
               | 
               | You don't even have to sacrifice the backyard for that,
               | you can have a city layout that puts the houses
               | themselves fairly close to each other, and the yards can
               | radiate outwards. Then you connect each cluster's main
               | street with the other ones, but unlike suburbs, you make
               | each "subdivision" mixed-use and you allow public transit
               | , pedestrians and cyclists to cut across subdivisions for
               | easy access everywhere.
               | 
               | If anything, small towns should be urbanism done right,
               | because they don't (shouldn't?) have the money for sprawl
               | and they don't have all the pressures for increasing
               | density a lot, that big cities have.
        
           | heywire wrote:
           | I would wager that most people don't want to use public
           | transit regularly. I know I certainly don't.
        
             | ToucanLoucan wrote:
             | Your desire to not be inconvenienced is not as important as
             | the lives of other people who are being killed
             | unnecessarily for it.
             | 
             | That being said, to be clear, I don't think we need to make
             | driving illegal or whatever. I think a TON of people would
             | happily not be saddled with the expense of owning a car or
             | the task of driving if there were reasonable alternatives
             | on offer, which in the few pockets of the US that actually
             | have decent mass transit, is broadly the case.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | That said, I drove into a nearby city after dark which is
               | increasingly early last night. There are no reasonable
               | alternatives--I will for a 9-5 event but just doesn't
               | work for the evening. There's a decent mass transit
               | system including commuter rail but it it's just not
               | organized around coming in at 5pm. It's chaos with
               | cars/cycles/escooters/pedestrians often randomly crossing
               | streets, poor visibility, etc. I mostly just don't go in
               | any longer.
        
             | gorbachev wrote:
             | That's because most Americans haven't seen a public
             | transport service that works well.
             | 
             | Visit or live in a major European city for a while and you
             | are likely change your tune.
        
             | afavour wrote:
             | I think a lot of people would be happy to use it if it was
             | convenient and reliable. I live in NYC and haven't had to
             | drive to/from work in over a decade. I consider the subway
             | ride a vast, vast improvement over driving... but only when
             | the subway works right.
        
               | nomel wrote:
               | The vast majority of people I talk to, including myself,
               | don't use public transportation for:
               | 
               | 1. Time. For example, my commute is 25 minutes, but 2
               | hours ride and three mile walk by public transport.
               | 
               | 2. Safety, intimately tied to the homeless problem.
               | 
               | 3. Cleanliness. In my experience, related to #2, and the
               | fact that government institutions are incapable of caring
               | about user experience, because they get funding
               | regardless. Matted, stained fabric seat cushions, and
               | dried whatever caked on the floor.
               | 
               | There's _nothing_ better or remotely alluring about
               | public transportation for the vast majority of people (as
               | shown by gridlock traffic).
        
               | afavour wrote:
               | Like I said, when it works right. A 2 hour ride and three
               | mile walk is very obviously not a viable commute.
               | 
               | As for safety, you're orders of magnitude more likely to
               | get into a car crash than have anything happen to you on
               | the NYC subway. Yes, incidents happen but they're
               | dramatically inflated in the public consciousness.
               | 
               | Your objection (and most of the others I see) aren't
               | objections to the fundamental nature of public transit,
               | rather they're objections to shit public transit or to
               | urban life in general (whole lotta city car parks that
               | aren't clean!). Which is entirely understandable. But
               | there are plenty of examples of functional public transit
               | serving millions of people in cities across the world.
               | Those people aren't all secretly wishing they were in a
               | car.
        
               | maxerickson wrote:
               | It's kind of boring to respond to a comment about public
               | transit needing to work well by complaining about how it
               | doesn't. Especially when limiting investment has often
               | been an explicit choice in whatever given area.
        
               | SamoyedFurFluff wrote:
               | I just think you have shite public transport, mate. I
               | can't imagine anywhere in nyc you'd have to walk 3 mi to
               | get anywhere??
               | 
               | Sure if I said public transport is strictly superior
               | because I drive a car that breaks down constantly, you'd
               | see the problems not cars, yeah?
        
           | toast0 wrote:
           | > In a bigger picture, cars are a bad solution to the problem
           | of transportation at scale
           | 
           | They're not a great solution to transportation at scale, but
           | they're pretty good at small volume point to point traffic.
           | 
           | There's not enough people going my way on most of my trips to
           | make transportation at scale worthwhile. Ferries work well
           | for part of many of my trips, but I can take a car on the
           | ferry to deal with the lack of scale on either side.
           | 
           | I could sometimes take a bus to the ferry, walk to light rail
           | and take light rail to the airport. But the bus only runs
           | during commute times, so that impacts viable flight times,
           | and the walk to the light rail got pretty sketchy in the past
           | several years and light rail itself can be sketchy too.
           | 
           | Most of my cars run fine any time of day, although peak
           | traffic is annoying, and I'm dealing with lighting issues on
           | one so I can't take it out unless I know I'll be home before
           | dusk.
        
         | littlestymaar wrote:
         | > You can load the cars with safety features, but it doesn't
         | change the fact that these cars are very heavy
         | 
         | Being heavy is actually a safety feature of sort (but just for
         | the people inside the car, it increases overall fatality).
        
           | Gigachad wrote:
           | Trees are anchored to the ground. Being heavier just reduces
           | your ability to stop.
        
             | rich_sasha wrote:
             | Maybe that's good when hitting a tree? Slower deceleration,
             | less force.
        
               | jkaptur wrote:
               | I think they meant that it's more difficult to stop
               | _before_ beginning to impact the tree.
        
               | rich_sasha wrote:
               | Still. If I'm going to hit a tree, I'd rather drive a
               | tank than a motorbike.
        
               | JasonSage wrote:
               | Cars have crumple zones which a motorbike does not.
               | 
               | A lighter car requires less work from the crumple zone to
               | decelerate the car into non-fatal territory than a heavy
               | car.
        
             | bastloing wrote:
             | Decreases your tendency to flip over. I'm astonished by all
             | the dashcam videos out there showing collisions, usually
             | the first thing an ice car does is flip over. Not EVs
             | though.
        
               | bena wrote:
               | That's more a factor of weight distribution rather than
               | weight itself.
               | 
               | EVs carry their weight lower to the ground. SUVs and
               | pickup trucks are more top heavy. Passenger cars have a
               | higher probability to rollover, but not that much greater
               | than an EV.
        
               | bastloing wrote:
               | Ice cars have a much higher rollover risk compared to
               | EVs. All the data supports that along with physics.
               | Absolutely weight distribution. Compare the heavy battery
               | in an EV vs the heavy motor that's up a bit higher in an
               | ice car. Pretty much any hit over around 20mph to the
               | front quarter panel of an ice car, truck, or SUV will
               | flip it over.
        
           | postalrat wrote:
           | It ain't working then because these heavy cars tend to have
           | more fatalities.
        
             | almatabata wrote:
             | The study seems to contradict this: "When broken out by
             | size, small cars have the highest fatal accident rate while
             | midsize and full-size cars are both below average."
             | 
             | And later in the study, "When two small cars collide the
             | forces are equalized and both vehicles tend to hold up
             | well. But if a compact hatchback and a full-size pickup
             | truck try to occupy the same space at the same time, the
             | smaller car always loses."
        
           | legitster wrote:
           | In insurance they call it the "law of lugnuts" - bigger cars
           | have better survivability in _direct collisions_.
           | 
           | However, most traffic fatalities do not come from direct
           | collisions. They come from driver hitting immobile objects.
           | 
           | Smaller, lighter cars take less kinetic energy with them
           | around corners, are easier to steer and avoid obstacles, and
           | are more likely to stay upright when leaving the road.
        
         | dpats wrote:
         | > In the US at least, the top killer of drivers are trees on
         | the side of the road.
         | 
         | Do you have a source on that?
        
           | legitster wrote:
           | > From 2016 to 2018 an average of 19,158 fatalities resulted
           | from roadway departures, which is 51 percent of all traffic
           | fatalities in the United States.
           | 
           | https://highways.dot.gov/safety/RwD
        
         | kevinqi wrote:
         | Aside from the distracted driving part, which is real, there
         | are two physical aspects of the model 3 that I find to be
         | safety issues as well-- the two front windshield beams are
         | thick and add a sort of blind spot, and the side mirrors don't
         | give you great field of view.
        
           | nomel wrote:
           | Same with my older Toyota. They stuffed airbags in them,
           | which is nice, but I've had several times where an adult on a
           | bike is _completely_ obscured, with my passenger having to
           | scream  "stop!". After the second time, I now bob my head
           | like a maniac to look around them.
           | 
           | Can't wait for displays on pillars, to make them appear
           | transparent.
        
           | GuB-42 wrote:
           | It is a problem with most modern cars, and it is actually for
           | safety reasons. These beams have to support the entire weight
           | of the car in case it flips over in order to protect the
           | occupants.
        
             | MBCook wrote:
             | A rule we have due to giant high center of gravity SUVs.
             | Rollovers weren't as big a problem when everyone had
             | sedans.
             | 
             | A car should survive a rollover. But when you make them big
             | & heavy, those pillars have to be big and thick and you get
             | large blind spots.
        
           | legitster wrote:
           | Also, the instrument cluster is located in the center,
           | outside of the driver's direct view. And most of the
           | important controls for the driver do not have tactile
           | buttons.
        
             | Rygian wrote:
             | Which are those controls?
             | 
             | I drive a Tesla since 2019 and have never needed a
             | touchscreen control for the driving itself.
        
         | akira2501 wrote:
         | > and loaded with features
         | 
         | "Ludicrous mode."
         | 
         | > the top killer of drivers are trees on the side of the road.
         | 
         | It's actually alcohol and drugs. Which is the reason those
         | drivers find themselves in the trees.
        
           | legitster wrote:
           | If you have driven around rural roads in the US, you realize
           | it does not take alcohol to leave the road. A moment of
           | distraction is all it takes to get into a ditch.
           | 
           | https://highways.dot.gov/safety/RwD
        
             | moralestapia wrote:
             | >A moment of distraction
             | 
             | Indeed, people really under(over?)estimate how small a loss
             | of attention has to be to become catastrophic.
             | 
             | I once wanted to know the name of a track that was playing
             | while driving on the highway. I looked right to the stereo
             | display and read it, that probably took a tenth of a
             | second, but it happened right at the moment when something
             | came into my lane and I had to veer off not to hit it, I
             | did not hit it but also almost drove the car out of the
             | road.
             | 
             | When you're distracted, even if you're looking straight
             | ahead, coming back to reality, assessing the situation,
             | reacting, ... takes at least a couple seconds and that's a
             | lot of time in these scenarios.
        
         | SoftTalker wrote:
         | What makes sense to me is the top 3 cars:
         | 
         | Tesla - autopilot that really isn't, gets fooled in many
         | situations, driver lulled into not paying attention, can't
         | react quickly enough when the computer bails, and ends up
         | driving into a bridge abutment at 75mph.
         | 
         | Kia - cheap cars built to minimum safety standards driven by
         | young people who aren't very experienced drivers.
         | 
         | Buick - cars driven by geriatrics whose declines in vision and
         | reaction speed probably should have resulted in their licenses
         | being revoked five years ago but who still insist on driving
         | themselves.
        
           | vikingerik wrote:
           | I'd also venture that the profile of Tesla drivers is also a
           | factor along with those other two brands. I'd be pretty sure
           | that Tesla owners collectively drive more aggressively than
           | the average car on the road. Teslas aren't being driven by
           | soccer moms and careful grandmas.
        
         | jvandonsel wrote:
         | Simple solution. Cut down all the trees on the side of the
         | road.
         | 
         | You're welcome.
        
         | Mountain_Skies wrote:
         | >In the US at least, the top killer of drivers are trees on the
         | side of the road.
         | 
         | A decade or so ago the Georgia Department of Transportation
         | tried to do away with the trees between streets and sidewalks
         | because of so many fatalities coming from collisions with
         | trees. Clearing out an "automative recovery zone" as they
         | called it likely would have saved lives of some people in
         | vehicles but of course it would increase the danger to
         | pedestrians, who might or might not be present at that moment.
         | Lots of trade offs in these types of analysis and not all of
         | them are always immediately obvious.
        
       | grecy wrote:
       | How can any reasonable person know if any story about Tesla (good
       | or bad) is actually factual and useful, or is just a story told
       | from a particular angle to manipulate the stock price for gain?
       | 
       | While many says it's the ultimate meme stock, I also can't help
       | thinking it's the ultimate manipulation stock - it seems some
       | people desperately want it to go down while others desperately
       | want it to go up.
        
         | robterrell wrote:
         | > analyzed data from the U.S. Fatality Analysis Reporting
         | System (FARS)
         | 
         | Maybe not for the "reasonable person" but government data is
         | available and if you are here you likely know some statistics,
         | so go nuts:
         | 
         | https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx
         | 
         | and
         | 
         | https://www.nhtsa.gov/research-data/fatality-analysis-report...
        
           | Lendal wrote:
           | Now Elon will possibly in charge of making that government
           | database disappear.
        
             | ridgeguy wrote:
             | Rapidly growing new file category on Pirate Bay?
        
             | willsoon wrote:
             | Consider, my friends, this elegant plot twist. Musk is a
             | secret blue agent infiltrated to make that government
             | database disappear.
        
         | thejazzman wrote:
         | I've had one since 2015 and so many issues. When I share them
         | on Reddit I'm downvoted into oblivion for going against the
         | cult
         | 
         | It's gotten better in the last few years, now that millions of
         | people share the issues, it's harder to drown them out
         | 
         | Doesn't seem to matter whatsoever for their stock, so that
         | doesn't seems to be too relevant
        
           | KerrAvon wrote:
           | Tesla is a memestock. There's no reason it should be as high
           | as it is; the fundamentals aren't that great and Musk is a
           | danger to the company whether he's in or out of government.
        
           | foobazgt wrote:
           | Some context for others - 2015 is fairly early in Tesla's
           | history. The model 3 didn't even exist until 2017. The
           | overwhelming majority of Teslas on the road today are Y's and
           | 3's.
           | 
           | FWIW, I've personally owned three Teslas with zero problems,
           | but none older than 2019. YMMV.
        
         | kybernetikos wrote:
         | Follow the link to the underlying study
         | https://www.iseecars.com/most-dangerous-cars-study#v=2024
         | 
         | While the linked article is playing up the tesla angle (and so
         | may be thought to be manipulative) the underlying study does
         | not seem to be unusually focused on tesla, it's simply listing
         | the results of a fairly straightforward analysis. I also have
         | no reason to doubt it as I more or less expected tesla to have
         | bad fatality rates compared to class (although I guess I
         | wouldn't have expected them to be quite this bad - I thought
         | they'd be bad compared to other luxury vehicles of similar
         | weight size and price, not absolutely bad compared to most
         | cars).
         | 
         | But you can find the underlying numbers and critique them if
         | you have reason to think they might be wrong. E.g. if you
         | believed the claims that autopilot was safer than human drivers
         | and was saving lives, you might have expected to see a sign of
         | that in this data (I didn't).
        
         | jjulius wrote:
         | >How can any reasonable person know if any story about Tesla
         | (good or bad) is actually factual and useful, or is just a
         | story told from a particular angle to manipulate the stock
         | price for gain?
         | 
         | This is a data-based story. Follow the link(s) to review the
         | data if one is unsure whether or not the reporting piece can be
         | trusted.
        
       | mattlondon wrote:
       | > Karl Brauer said in the report. "A focused, alert driver,
       | traveling at a legal or prudent speed, without being under the
       | influence of drugs or alcohol, is the most likely to arrive
       | safely regardless of the vehicle they're driving."
       | 
       | ... implication being that Tesla drivers are more likely to be
       | driving like pricks and/or under the influence?
       | 
       | I wonder what the rates are like for specific models from other
       | brands that are associated with morons. G-wagons, M3s etc etc
        
         | lawn wrote:
         | Or that its very difficult to be alert when using Teslas FSD?
        
         | tifik wrote:
         | Or it's the drivers are not "focused, alert", because of the
         | auto-pilot.
        
       | Lendal wrote:
       | I paid $10K for FSD when I was drinking the Kool Aid but haven't
       | used it in over a year due to it being a steaming pile of
       | garbage. But hey, it's a great party gag and the stock price is
       | still soaring so keep the pedal to the metal and take us all to
       | RICH town Elon! What could possibly go wron...
        
       | stoplight wrote:
       | I wonder how much of this is because (IME anyway) Tesla drivers
       | are not very good. With all that tech it's easy to get distracted
       | (there's literally a giant tablet looking thing for a console).
       | It's also easy to think all the bells and whistles will do things
       | for you so drivers are paying less attention because the car will
       | beep and holler at them if things are going awry (except by that
       | point it's too late).
        
         | geysersam wrote:
         | Tesla drivers are young men with big wallets, stereotypically.
         | That demographic is not known for their carefulness in traffic,
         | or in any other matter. I'm sure that simple confounding factor
         | is enough to explain the excessive fatality rate of Tesla cars.
        
           | Der_Einzige wrote:
           | Tesla drivers demographic was that maybe in 2015. Today, it's
           | the California camry.
        
             | Tempest1981 wrote:
             | And the same boring colors, year after year
        
         | jiveturkey wrote:
         | There's a saying: BMWs are for folks that like to drive, Teslas
         | are for folks that hate to drive.
         | 
         | My own add-on is: Toyotas are for folks that have to drive.
        
         | almatabata wrote:
         | You can add more parameters.
         | 
         | Whats the temperament of the driver. Certain brands attract hot
         | heads who will drive recklessly. I was kind of expecting more
         | sports cars in the top 5. 2/5 is still a good score.
         | 
         | Given the amount of SUVs as well, no matter how safe you make a
         | small car, if an SUV rams you, it is just not going to end well
         | for the smaller.
        
       | Koala_ice wrote:
       | I thoroughyl expect the Deparment of Government Efficiency to
       | recommend U.S. Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) be shut
       | down to save previous taxpayer dollars.
        
         | TrainedMonkey wrote:
         | And all USG vehicles to be replaced with Teslas to save money
         | on gas /s
        
         | ryandvm wrote:
         | Not even remotely farce. I hope the rest of the world is taking
         | notes...
        
           | oblio wrote:
           | Doesn't each major government do independent safety
           | testing/has independent safety requirements, anyway?
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | VW diesel-gate
             | 
             | How many of the independents caught that?
        
               | nickff wrote:
               | Interestingly, it was a study commissioned by a non-
               | profit, and performed by a university: https://en.wikiped
               | ia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | oh, great, so none.
        
               | aziaziazi wrote:
               | Diesel gate involved also many others manufacturers
               | 
               | > Opel (General Motors) publicly demonstrated (while
               | representatives from the TUV Hessen were present) a
               | Zafira that met the NOx emission limits. At the same
               | time, Opel started clandestinely pushing an engine
               | software update that limited NOx emissions in Zafiras
               | that were already on the road.
               | 
               | > German newspaper Bild am Sonntag reported that US
               | authorities investigating Mercedes have discovered that
               | its vehicles are equipped with illegal software to help
               | them pass United States' stringent emission tests. The
               | claimed defeat devices include a Bit 15 mode to switch
               | off emissions control after 16 miles of driving (the
               | length of an official U.S. emissions test), and Slipguard
               | which tries to directly determine if the car is being
               | tested based on speed and acceleration profiles
               | 
               | > Dodge Ram 1500 and Jeep Grand Cherokee trucks, had
               | software that allowed them to exceed NOx pollution
               | limits, undetected by the usual testing methods.
               | 
               | > BMW was sued in 2018 when certain models were named as
               | producing several times more nitrogen oxide emissions
               | than laboratory tests indicated
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | um, that can be read both ways. they very well could be
           | taking notes on how to move in the same direction, not the
           | opposite
        
           | consteval wrote:
           | This is why we need the Department of Department of
           | Government Efficiency Efficiency so we can ensure the
           | governmental efficiency of the Department of Government
           | Efficiency.
        
           | roughly wrote:
           | Nobody needs to take notes, we've known what this is for a
           | hundred years. We spent most of the last century trying to
           | get rid of autocracy in various places, there's entire
           | libraries worth of books detailing this playbook at this
           | point.
        
           | jfengel wrote:
           | Unfortunately, they are. They have discovered that this kind
           | of behavior gets people into office.
           | 
           | Expect to see more of it.
        
         | akira2501 wrote:
         | The authority and requirement to operate FARS extends from US
         | Title Code.
         | 
         | Aside from that misuse and intentional misunderstanding of the
         | FARS statistics is readily used by Tesla as a justification for
         | their FSD system.
        
         | HaZeust wrote:
         | These next 4 years will be a hoot and holler...
        
           | atoav wrote:
           | He had been "joking" about a third term already:
           | https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/us/politics/congress-
           | reso...
           | 
           | So let's see if a Trump with total immunity will _really_
           | leave gracefully this time.
        
             | exe34 wrote:
             | I'm looking forward to the military coup! it seems that
             | America is turning into a new Turkey. you can either have
             | freedom or democracy, but not both.
        
         | notyourwork wrote:
         | Am I the only one that is not excited about the next four years
         | being constant banter of this nature? I loathe it. Nothing
         | personal against your comment but the new administration hasn't
         | even gone into office and I cannot get away from this.
        
           | seanmcdirmid wrote:
           | They have already announced what they are going to do, with
           | the pro-Trump side saying he's not serious or will mellow out
           | the plan before he takes office, and the anti-Trump side
           | saying he will do exactly what he says he's going to do.
           | 
           | Basically a repeat of 2016.
        
             | weaksauce wrote:
             | not a repeat of 2016 at all. he's got every lever of the
             | government at his disposal. stacked supreme court, three
             | branches of government on his side. hiring the worst people
             | for every job possible and hiring only for fealty to him.
             | 
             | this will be much worse than 2016.
        
               | stetrain wrote:
               | And no need to consider winning re-election.
        
               | exe34 wrote:
               | I'm looking forward to the first military coup in the US
               | to restore democracy in 4 years.
               | 
               | on the other hand, I'm a bit concerned about these two
               | crashing the world economy in the meantime.
        
               | giantg2 wrote:
               | He had both chambers in 2016 too, on similarly narrow
               | majorities. The hiring has consistently been for
               | allegiance. The court has changed a little. One thing you
               | don't mention that is perhaps the biggest thing is
               | temperance for reelection. But overall, I don't see much
               | reason that it will be that much different from last
               | time. Talking about things being much worse seems like an
               | emotional statement.
        
             | giantg2 wrote:
             | It always falls in the middle. There's a reason politicians
             | are known as liars. Of course they won't do everything they
             | claim on the campaign trail.
        
           | Koala_ice wrote:
           | I'm actually not bantering.
        
           | agumonkey wrote:
           | I'm also jaded by the constant snark I/we have to resort to
           | to cope and disconnect from the insanity that is today's
           | world
        
             | buzzerbetrayed wrote:
             | I'm glad you used the word snark since that exact word in
             | the HN guidelines
             | 
             | > Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously; don't
             | cross-examine. Edit out swipes.
        
           | caekislove wrote:
           | They are like this literally any time a Republican is in the
           | White House. They were like this when Dubya was President
           | too, even though today they act like he's some sort of elder
           | statesman just because he hates Trump.
        
             | yakz wrote:
             | What? Dubya was selected by the Supreme Court. He started a
             | war after peddling bullshit evidence in front of the whole
             | world. Dubya was and is a piece of shit.
        
               | jiggawatts wrote:
               | Two wars, but who's counting?
        
           | throwaway425933 wrote:
           | >> but the new administration hasn't even gone into office
           | and I cannot get away from this.
           | 
           | Well, it cuts both ways. New administration should not be
           | talking till they are in office.
        
             | _blk wrote:
             | Respectfully, why not? That's the whole point of
             | campaigning. I seriously hope an incoming administration
             | has a plan before they get to office. "I wouldn't change
             | anything" fortunately doesn't seem to win elections when
             | everything's sideways.
        
               | Mordisquitos wrote:
               | Campaigning is customarily done _before_ elections, not
               | after.
        
             | amazingamazing wrote:
             | That makes no sense
        
           | zer8k wrote:
           | These people have been inundated with the drivel of a billion
           | dollar propaganda machine run by the most expensive campaign
           | in history.
           | 
           | It's gonna take a while before they're back to normal again.
           | I've heard so many "office of government efficiency" jokes in
           | the last week I am tired of it too. But, in their defense if
           | all you hear is how this administration is going to be the
           | fourth reich (lol), destroy the country (lol), introduce
           | fascism (lol), kill people (lol), etc you're going to react
           | in a sarcastic way to anything you can grasp onto.
           | 
           | Though tbf, again, "office of government efficiency" seems
           | like an oxymoron.
        
             | jiggawatts wrote:
             | Elon chose the name to be a joke.
             | 
             | You're accusing the wrong side for making a mockery of
             | government institutions.
        
               | rightbyte wrote:
               | It is a Doge coin joke, right?
               | 
               | edit: But then again P.A.T.R.I.O.T act etc is a thing so
               | hard to tell if actual joke or just going with how US
               | politicians like to be witty while naming stuff.
        
             | cglace wrote:
             | What if we use Trump's actual words?
        
           | zzzeek wrote:
           | Enjoy it while it's all just "jokes". Eliminating departments
           | that cut into Elon Musk's bottom line is the reason he's
           | found his way into the White House with hundreds of billions
           | of dollars to throw around to so many starving cats hungry
           | for bribes and kickbacks like cat chow
        
             | ithkuil wrote:
             | Or perhaps he just does it for ego and visibility.
             | 
             | It's hard to tell which of these two options is more
             | likely. 4d chess or simple billionaire egomania ?
        
               | namaria wrote:
               | What's 4D chess about saying they'll diminish the
               | government capacity to regulate their business and
               | proceeding to doing so? It doesn't take an evil genius
               | master plan to go about that.
        
           | MBCook wrote:
           | We've had them in office before, plus plenty of public
           | statements over the last 10 years.
           | 
           | It's not exactly baseless speculation. People have things to
           | base their guesses on.
        
             | buzzerbetrayed wrote:
             | Being right or wrong is often irrelevant to the question of
             | "does it belong on HN?"
        
             | Alupis wrote:
             | Let's not pretend everyone is aghast at the goals of this
             | administration. We just had an election and these
             | viewpoints resoundingly won the day.
             | 
             | A non-trivial component to this election was this constant,
             | smug nagging. "We know better, you're all so stupid".
             | 
             | If you turn out to be right, enjoy your smug "I told you
             | so", but until then - these views are a minority and are
             | very tiring to constantly see/hear/read.
        
           | fundad wrote:
           | You can ignore it like you may have ignored snark against
           | Biden, the border, the upcoming "recession", wokeness and
           | vaccines, can't you?
        
           | hagbard_c wrote:
           | You are not alone in this sentiment. It is beyond the pale
           | that the denizens of a 'hacker forum' are often so narrow-
           | minded when it comes to engaging those who think outside of
           | the personal zone of ideological preference. The same people
           | who have been yammering about the importance of 'diversity'
           | are dead set against diversity of opinion. Grow up, folks,
           | get outside your comfort zone and engage some of those
           | _deplorables, irredeemables, garbage, rednecks, hillbillies_
           | and _bible thumpers_ instead of howling along with the
           | masses. Go ahead and try, you may find they are more like you
           | than you 've been told by the chattering classes. Sure you'll
           | have disagreements over certain things but that does not make
           | them the evil monsters your moral mentors have been claiming
           | they are. Just... grow up.
        
             | bitzun wrote:
             | I don't think GP was talking about ordinary people, they
             | were making a comment about a politician's declared plans.
        
             | peutetre wrote:
             | > _engage some of those deplorables, irredeemables,
             | garbage, rednecks, hillbillies and bible thumpers instead
             | of howling along with the masses_
             | 
             | You are aware that no one in this thread has called anyone
             | deplorable, irredeemable, garbage, a redneck, a hillbilly,
             | or a bible thumper, right?
             | 
             | Your aggrievement and imagined slights is precisely how
             | people like Trump and Musk manipulate you. And apparently
             | the manipulation works really well.
             | 
             | Trump is not your retribution. Trump doesn't care about
             | America. Trump doesn't care about Americans. Trump only
             | cares about himself.
        
             | Mountain_Skies wrote:
             | Hacker News' eventual death started the moment it joined
             | the hysteria over the Lab Leak Theory. Since then it has
             | trended more and more to be like Reddit, with ideological
             | tribal concerns occupying an increasingly large mindshare.
             | This drives away people who want to have earnest
             | conversations in good faith, giving even more power to the
             | ideologues. It will be a long death spiral but you can see
             | it happening day by day.
        
               | Wytwwww wrote:
               | The comment you are replying to has the highest
               | concentration of ideological hysteria in this and all the
               | sibling threads, though.
               | 
               | Basically it dismisses any rational arguments related to
               | the topic out of hand because they are inherently biased
               | and because supposedly "both sides" are equal/must be
               | treated equally due to some undefined reasons.
        
               | tim333 wrote:
               | I'm not sure what hysteria about lab leaks? I mean maybe
               | it did, maybe it didn't.
        
               | yarg wrote:
               | The idea that the novel coronavirus didn't escape from
               | the coronavirus R&D laboratory never had anywhere near
               | enough evidence to be credible.
               | 
               | It was pretty much the WHO simply repeating the claims of
               | the Chinese government, who had already tried to cover up
               | the outbreak (with any warnings sent to the WHO coming
               | from Taiwan instead).
               | 
               | It was about as believable as the completely baseless
               | claims that the emergency use authorised vaccine was safe
               | and effective.
        
             | Wytwwww wrote:
             | > Grow up, folks, get outside your comfort zone and engage
             | some of those deplorables
             | 
             | Like eat a random whale carcass you find and then dump a
             | bear in the central park? Then get infected by brain
             | worms...
             | 
             | Surely nobody who hasn't tried doing stuff like that has
             | the right to criticise these people?
             | 
             | > does not make them the evil
             | 
             | The person who they think will make a great secretary of
             | health has publicly declared that he is an unhinged lunatic
             | (I'm not even talking about the vaccines and other stuff
             | but only his personal behaviour).
             | 
             | Entirely eliminating any ideological preferences from it
             | does not even fundamentally change much...
        
           | noncoml wrote:
           | Can you mention one thing that Trump or Musk ever did out of
           | altruism?
        
             | bydo wrote:
             | Trump set up a whole university!
        
             | tim333 wrote:
             | Musk seems quite well meaning. Neuralink, the early
             | Starlink donated to Ukraine, trying to move the world to
             | Solar/electric etc.
             | 
             | Trump... dunno.
        
           | namaria wrote:
           | It sucks for everyone. What you want us to do? Pretend it
           | ain't so?
        
           | Spooky23 wrote:
           | I'm more disappointed that we have to have it. They want to
           | shutdown the weather service for Christ sakes.
           | 
           | Specifically to transportation, they want to "save money"
           | with public-private partnerships and removing the requirement
           | to separate design and build functions for contractors.
           | 
           | A textbook example of how that works out is the former Tappan
           | Zee bridge in New York. The tollpayers are in the hook to pay
           | the contractor for 50 years, and the design has some
           | significant flaws that reduced build expense. Stuff like
           | bolts regularly falling off the bridge.
           | 
           | Elections have consequences, and hearing about our descent
           | into third world graft will continue to annoy you.
        
           | Wytwwww wrote:
           | > I loathe it
           | 
           | They are planning to appoint a nutjob who has publicly that
           | he admitted cutting off the heads of whale carcasses with a
           | chainsaw and dumping dead bears in the Central Park for
           | "fun". Presumably he is also consuming those rotting animals
           | carcasses that he keeps finding somehow (how else do you get
           | brain worms?) to be the new US health secretary.
           | 
           | Seriously... what else do you need to know?
        
           | ChildOfChaos wrote:
           | As a non-american watching the election, this was one of the
           | reasons I didn't want the result to be the way it went. Just
           | for having to hear about it constantly from everywhere.
        
           | axus wrote:
           | It looks like the scientific method to me: Make a hypothesis,
           | let the experiment run, check the result.
        
           | asdasdsddd wrote:
           | No, we need more SNL trump impressions, Trump pundits, and
           | corny jokes
        
           | fumeux_fume wrote:
           | Can't be much more worse than an off topic comment.
        
         | more_corn wrote:
         | Agreed. This seems like just the sort of government waste that
         | department has been created to eliminate.
        
         | bonestamp2 wrote:
         | If that happens, that would be the most efficient form of
         | regulatory capture yet!
        
       | peppertree wrote:
       | I suspect the biggest factor is speed. After getting used to EV
       | for over a year, every ICE vehicle feels painfully sluggish and
       | slow. If that's the case I'm curious to see how the numbers
       | compare to other EVs.
        
         | nytesky wrote:
         | Torque and touchscreens.
        
         | akira2501 wrote:
         | > every ICE vehicle feels painfully sluggish and slow.
         | 
         | You don't do much towing, do you?
        
           | Kiro wrote:
           | 99.9% of drivers will never tow anything in their life.
        
             | akira2501 wrote:
             | > 99.9% of drivers
             | 
             | I think you've just made that up; however, I am willing to
             | stipulate that 99.9% of Hacker News posters will never tow
             | anything. I always forget how out of touch the audience
             | here is.
        
             | connicpu wrote:
             | That might be a little high given how many small boats
             | exist in this country, but definitely agree the vast
             | majority will never tow.
        
             | roughly wrote:
             | Not that one could tell by their vehicle choice, of course.
        
         | kybernetikos wrote:
         | The worst 23 models according to the study are here:
         | https://www.iseecars.com/most-dangerous-cars-study#v=2024
         | 
         | I'm not sure which of them are evs, but you could work it out
         | fairly easily. Even if many of them are, it still looks to me
         | like tesla is doing poorly by this metric.
        
           | Tempest1981 wrote:
           | None of the others are EVs, except maybe a small % of Kia
           | Souls
        
           | r00fus wrote:
           | Mostly non-EVs. In fact the only EVs are both Tesla.
        
         | HeatrayEnjoyer wrote:
         | I heard EVs are very heavy, how can they be faster?
        
           | MBCook wrote:
           | EVs have full torque at 0 RPM so they are capable of
           | accelerating much faster than an average ICE.
           | 
           | The manufacturer can alter based on software, how much
           | current the electrical system is capable of supplying, how
           | powerful the motors are, etc.
           | 
           | But even "normal non-performance" EVs that aren't designed
           | for performance like a Chevy Bolt come off the line way
           | quicker than an equivalent normal car, even if they're full 0
           | to 60 time isn't that much faster.
        
       | tim333 wrote:
       | I wonder what percentage are autopilot driving into things?
        
         | janalsncm wrote:
         | I would also like to know this. How many fatal crashes happened
         | where autopilot was engaged in the 30 seconds prior to a fatal
         | accident?
         | 
         | By definition, if the autopilot has disengaged it's a more
         | dangerous situation, so it is fair to place the blame on it. A
         | relief pitcher doesn't get charged with earned runs he
         | inherits.
        
         | avidiax wrote:
         | Very low.
         | 
         | Technically the driver drove into those things, since autopilot
         | disengaged .4 seconds before impact.
         | 
         | Autopilot was just there to ensure the trip to that last .4
         | seconds wasn't too draining.
        
       | nytesky wrote:
       | Have the demographics of typical Tesla driver changed in last
       | 5-10 years? I think it was at first wealthy environmentalists,
       | but it shifted to be a new Yuppie mobile, and most recently
       | probably skews to a young male crowd?
        
       | TrainedMonkey wrote:
       | > The study was conducted on model year 2018-2022 vehicles, and
       | focused on crashes between 2017 and 2022 that resulted in
       | occupant fatalities.
       | 
       | Teslas can go fast real fast, so naively this is the result I
       | would expect given how they have filtered the data. In other
       | words, unless they controlled for this, this would be biased by
       | natural selection playing out.
       | 
       | Having said that, as someone who had a couple of close calls with
       | the autopilot. I would love to know what percent of those crashes
       | was with autopilot enabled.
        
         | phony-account wrote:
         | > Teslas can go fast real fast, so naively this is the result I
         | would expect given how they have filtered the data. In other
         | words, unless they controlled for this...
         | 
         | Explain to me why you would want to filter out fatalities
         | caused by going "real fast"?
        
           | Petersipoi wrote:
           | Because comparing the fatality rate of a Corolla going 50mph
           | and a Tesla going 90mph is useless to a person who wants a
           | car that is safe when driven responsibly.
        
             | janalsncm wrote:
             | Unless the Tesla _induces_ unsafe behavior, of course. Does
             | the car make it easier to break the speed limit, drive
             | distracted, or drive under the influence? I don't know.
        
               | bravetraveler wrote:
               | Quite literally selling points
        
             | skybrian wrote:
             | It seems fair to say that it's difficult to control for
             | variation due to the drivers being different. But I don't
             | think giving faster cars a better rating is a good way to
             | control for that. Faster seems more dangerous for other
             | reasons.
        
             | mrguyorama wrote:
             | Corollas can easily go 90mph, so can a Prius, so can a
             | dodge neon.
             | 
             | Even eco-shitboxes in the US have 160 hp. Sure, they get
             | 0-60 times of 10 seconds, but I don't think there's been a
             | car model in the US that cannot reach 100mph in decades
        
           | IncreasePosts wrote:
           | If a bunch of lunatics buy the car because it is fast, and
           | kill themselves, that doesn't necessarily affect my safety in
           | the car if I'm buying it for some other feature and don't
           | intend to drive it dangerously.
        
             | piva00 wrote:
             | I think gathering the data to judge who's a lunatic is
             | quite hard and fragile. Finding proxies like past
             | infractions record would be already hard enough to compile
             | at scale, I can't really derive a passable methodology that
             | could tell you what you're asking for.
             | 
             | At least the data informs others that perhaps it's good to
             | be cautious around Teslas, not very much if it's a safe
             | purchase, and they state that it's a safe car so I don't
             | see the hangup you had about it on position of a buyer.
        
         | MBCook wrote:
         | > In other words, unless they controlled for this, this would
         | be biased by natural selection playing out.
         | 
         | Why should they control for it? It's a natural consequence of
         | Tesla's design choices, not a total coincidence that Tesla had
         | no control over.
        
       | bunderbunder wrote:
       | I'd love to see some sort of multiple regression or ANOVA on
       | this, instead of singling out a single variable. Is car brand
       | really the best independent predictor? Or is it specific design
       | decisions you tend to see in certain brands?
       | 
       | (Like, say, maximizing driver distraction by consolidating a
       | bunch of essential controls and information displays into a
       | touchscreen display that's really difficult to operate when it's
       | sunny outside. Just to pick something at random, of course.)
       | 
       | Somewhat related, I was recently shopping for refrigerators, and
       | fell down a data rabbit hole. If you just look at the overall
       | style of fridge, French doors look like a _terrible_ option from
       | a reliability perspective. But then, digging in a bit more, it
       | turns out that 's kind of a spurious correlation. Actually it's
       | the presence of bells and whistles like through-door ice
       | dispensers that kill a refrigerator's reliability. And then
       | perhaps on top of that the amount of extra Rube Goldberg machine
       | you need to make a chest height ice dispenser work in a bottom-
       | freezer French door refrigerator creates even more moving parts
       | to break. But a those problems don't apply to a model that
       | doesn't have that feature.
        
         | doctorpangloss wrote:
         | It's an interesting perspective. I was recently shopping for
         | shoes, and a fully closed shoe had more places where it could
         | break compared to my flip flops. That's why whenever you are
         | doing a dangerous activity, flip flops are recommended.
        
           | TheGamerUncle wrote:
           | Nick Mullen may disagree
        
           | bunderbunder wrote:
           | I'm not entirely sure an anecdote about the dangers of
           | singling out just one variable is a great counterpoint to a
           | criticism of the practice of singling out just one variable.
        
         | stego-tech wrote:
         | I mean, even lacking proper scientific data, ask yourself how
         | often your brain "autocompletes" someone based on a brand or
         | object? There's a reason advertisers spend so much money and
         | effort cultivating a very specific customer image: _it works_.
         | 
         | In the case of Tesla - and I cannot overstress enough how much
         | lf this is purely subjective conjecture on my part and _not a
         | statement of fact_ - the image cultivated by the company and
         | its Chief Executive is very much one of rejecting norms and
         | expectations, fierce independence, and a hostility towards
         | others (mostly from the Cybertruck unveiling onward). The
         | people who relate to that brand would, I would think, be more
         | likely to flout laws like speed limits, failing to use
         | indicators for turns or merges, and drive more aggressively
         | than a brand that emphasizes safety or enjoyment of experience
         | (like Hondas and Toyotas). My _purely subjective experiences_
         | bear this out, and I'm consistently rewarded giving Teslas a
         | wider berth on the roads.
         | 
         | So as far as branding as an indicator of outcome, yeah, I can
         | totally see that being a reliable indicator. I'd still be darn
         | curious to see more research about it, though.
        
           | sshine wrote:
           | > _The people who relate to that brand would, I would think,
           | be more likely to flout laws like speed limits, failing to
           | use indicators for turns or merges, and drive more
           | aggressively than a brand that emphasizes safety or enjoyment
           | of experience_
           | 
           | And BMW owners like German shepherds?
        
           | soerxpso wrote:
           | This was my thought as well from looking at the actual list.
           | Of the top 5 models with the worst fatal accident rate, 2 are
           | luxury cars that seem like they'd attract drivers with
           | reckless personalities (the Chevrolet Corvette and the
           | Porsche 911). I don't think the average mile driven in a
           | Corvette is really equivalent to the average mile driven in a
           | Honda Civic.
           | 
           | This data is interesting, but not really useful for
           | decisionmaking if we can't isolate the extent to which the
           | disparities are caused by features of the actual vehicle, as
           | opposed to driver selection factors.
           | 
           | Is anyone making an argument that the Model Y has an actual
           | safety problem in its design? I'd like to hear about which
           | physical aspect of the car people think is making it 4x less
           | safe than the average car? I don't see anything obvious. Its
           | crash test performance is fine. I'd hesitate to blame
           | autopilot, since we know that they crash less often with
           | autopilot enabled than without (even if due to selection
           | factors).
        
           | piotrkaminski wrote:
           | > brand that emphasizes safety or enjoyment of experience
           | (like Hondas and Toyotas)
           | 
           | This is plausible on its face, and yet the Honda CR-V Hybrid
           | ended up higher on the list than the Model Y. No idea how to
           | explain that...
        
         | jameskraus wrote:
         | I'd love to read any analysis you've done like this, or any
         | reading you might recommend.
        
         | cowpig wrote:
         | Check out the study, it's linked to in the article:
         | 
         | https://www.iseecars.com/most-dangerous-cars-study#v=2024
        
         | bilsbie wrote:
         | I was thinking for my next fridge to just buy a plain cheap one
         | and then buy a cheap countertop ice cube maker.
         | 
         | Since that's the thing that always breaks on the fridges. And
         | it adds like $500 to the price.
        
           | _dark_matter_ wrote:
           | Mine is French door without a front ice maker/water, and I
           | love it. Way more room in the fridge too. Just open the
           | bottom to get ice.
        
           | interestica wrote:
           | Dedicated Ice Makers can be quite good and fast at what they
           | do too.
        
         | jdietrich wrote:
         | The Tesla Model Y is a two ton SUV with the performance of a
         | Porsche 911. The base RWD model is fast and the Performance
         | model is _stupidly_ fast. I don 't think anyone would be
         | particularly surprised to learn that Porsche drivers get into a
         | lot of fatal accidents.
        
           | technothrasher wrote:
           | The top most model of the Model Y is as fast _in a straight
           | line_ as the lowest base model 911, and the handling isn 't
           | even close to the same. Saying the Model Y has the
           | performance of the 911 is not really an accurate statement.
        
             | CarVac wrote:
             | The straight-line performance is exactly what makes it
             | dangerous.
        
               | mauvehaus wrote:
               | To be more precise, it's probably the disparity between
               | straight-line performance and cornering performance that
               | gets people in real trouble.
        
           | Freedom2 wrote:
           | Don't the aerodynamics severely limit the cornering
           | performance of the Model Y? How can it have the same
           | performance? Or is there only one metric of performance that
           | is being measured?
        
             | larkost wrote:
             | I would suspect that it is the weight of the vehicle that
             | is the primary driver there. There is some additional
             | negative effects of the vehicle being taller (increasing
             | roll), but that is probably mostly mitigated by the battery
             | pack pulling down the (vertical) center of mass. But
             | certainly the aerodynamics creating less down-force would
             | play some role.
        
           | XenophileJKO wrote:
           | Looking at the results.. it does make you wonder if there is
           | something other underlying problem with the model Y vs the
           | Model X or model 3.
        
           | floxy wrote:
           | >I don't think anyone would be particularly surprised to
           | learn that Porsche drivers get into a lot of fatal accidents.
           | 
           | From the actual study:
           | Fatal Accident Rate   Compared to         Rank| Model
           | |(per 10^9 Miles)    | Overall Average         ----+---------
           | ------------+--------------------+-----------------
           | 1  | Hyundai Venue       | 13.9               | 4.9x
           | 2  | Chevrolet Corvette  | 13.6               | 4.8x
           | 3  | Mitsubishi Mirage   | 13.6               | 4.8x
           | 4  | Porsche 911         | 13.2               | 4.6x
           | 5  | Honda CR-V Hybrid   | 13.2               | 4.6x
           | 6  | Tesla Model Y       | 10.6               | 3.7x
        
             | IAmNotACellist wrote:
             | So the Tesla Model Y has a lower fatal accident rate than
             | sports cars, but they report it as Tesla overall having the
             | highest fatal accident rate? Perhaps that's because _all_
             | the cars they make are stupid fast and heavy, and they
             | don't offer cars where it's far harder to get into those
             | situations?
        
               | jiggawatts wrote:
               | I wonder if it's because there's more passengers per
               | model Y on average than a two-door sports car!
               | 
               | One fatal model Y accident might cause half a dozen gas
               | fatalities, but a Porsche wrapped around a tree might
               | kill just the lone driver.
        
               | IAmNotACellist wrote:
               | Good point too. Things that the authors should've thought
               | about.
        
             | piotrkaminski wrote:
             | What in the world is the Honda CR-V Hybrid doing so high on
             | this list?! That doesn't seem to fit any of the theories
             | I've seen spun up so far.
        
         | bonestamp2 wrote:
         | My fridge has been repaired twice, the first time within its
         | first year. Both times, each repair guy said the same thing:
         | Avoid LG and Samsung. Avoid counter depth. I have no idea if
         | that's accurate, so I'm curious if your data dive backs up
         | either of those notes?
        
           | BLKNSLVR wrote:
           | What is "counter depth"?
        
         | aziaziazi wrote:
         | > essential controls
         | 
         | Can't you drive a Tesla without it? I expect the screen was for
         | radio, gps, AC...
         | 
         | I agree those are distracting through.
        
           | jvanderbot wrote:
           | Rent a Tesla and try to adjust the mirrors while driving I
           | dare you.
           | 
           | Less difficult but much more common:
           | 
           | Change the radio station / music.
           | 
           | Change the climate control.
           | 
           | Both of those _require_ taking your eyes off the road and
           | navigating through multiple touch screen-only modal windows.
           | I have owned one for years and it is a distraction factory.
        
             | aziaziazi wrote:
             | I get it but Climate and Music can wait right? It's a
             | vehicle not an entertainment room. And adjusting motor
             | while driving seems crazy and dangerous!! changing
             | something that supposed to be set before departure?
             | 
             | At least that's what taught at driving school and written
             | in texts I guess... too sad the distraction factory is so
             | dangerous. I wouldn't drive that.
        
               | bunderbunder wrote:
               | Engineers should not ask reality to adapt to their
               | designs; they should adapt their designs to reality.
        
       | altairprime wrote:
       | The linked study is better: https://www.iseecars.com/most-
       | dangerous-cars-study#v=2024
        
         | samatman wrote:
         | > _"Most of these vehicles received excellent safety ratings,
         | performing well in crash tests at the IIHS and NHTSA, so it's
         | not a vehicle design issue," said Brauer. "The models on this
         | list likely reflect a combination of driver behavior and
         | driving conditions, leading to increased crashes and
         | fatalities."_
         | 
         | Quoting what's easily the most important passage in that study.
         | 
         | The two Teslas on the list are the Model Y, right beneath the
         | Porsche 911, and the Model S, right beneath the... Toyota
         | Prius.
         | 
         | So yeah. No surprises here. It's a study where the lesson
         | should be "a car is as dangerous as its driver" and everyone is
         | going to read it as "Teslas are deathtraps". What else is new.
        
           | _dark_matter_ wrote:
           | That just assumes that the crash tests are good indicators of
           | actual safety. My understanding is that car manufacturers
           | could go much further in the name of safety, but do just
           | enough to scrape by on those crash tests. So there could
           | definitely be differentials in terms of safety even among
           | cars that have perfect safety measures from IIHS/NHTSA.
        
           | ccorcos wrote:
           | It's hard to to be cynical about the intentions of the
           | authors of the original article after seeing this...
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | How much data does Tesla have on the details of crashes? Probably
       | depends on whether enough electronics survived to phone home.
       | 
       | It's possible to dig the airbag controller out of the wreckage
       | and read out the last 30 seconds or so. Airbag controllers have a
       | short but nonvolatile memory and usually survive crashes. That
       | gets you speed, acceleration in several axes, plus steering,
       | brake, and power inputs, and detailed info about what the airbag
       | system did.[1] Those were originally created to tune the airbag
       | algorithm, and, over the years, false airbag deployments have
       | dropped almost to zero.
       | 
       | That's the basic info needed to analyze fatal crashes. Speed at
       | collision? Speed 10 secs before collision? Accelerator and brake
       | inputs? Maneuvering (side accel) before crash? That, plus the
       | crash scene, tells most of what you need to know.
       | 
       | Law enforcement will sometimes read out those units, when it's
       | not clear what happened. It's not done routinely.
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/fmvss/EDR_QAs_11...
        
         | FireBeyond wrote:
         | "Fun" fact... Tesla doesn't count fatalities in their accident
         | stats!
         | 
         | Nor does it count accidents where there was no airbag
         | deployment because as you point out, modern airbag systems use
         | a wide variety of parameters, not just "if speed > x and
         | collision = true; deploy".
         | 
         | So you can hit someone obliquely at 30mph, and due to factors,
         | airbags don't deploy, and Tesla says "great, not an accident".
         | 
         | Or you can be in such a serious collision or similar where the
         | airbags CAN'T deploy, and Tesla? "Not an accident".
        
       | fakedang wrote:
       | Something something Lex Fridman something.
        
       | jiveturkey wrote:
       | Seems flawed. Tesla Model Y was the best selling model worldwide
       | for 2023. (I think #3 if limited to US.) The study only covers
       | 2017-2022, but we can infer that for the entire Brand, Teslas
       | sold quite well over at least that latter part of that period.
       | 
       | Now if there are more Teslas on the road vs other vehicles (note
       | they excluded car model years earlier than 2017, another fatal
       | (heh) flaw in the study), it makes sense they would have more
       | fatalities.
       | 
       | So this should be normalized "per capita" to vehicle counts if we
       | want to extract any brand-related causality, in the same way as
       | the data is already normalized to miles driven.
       | 
       | I enjoy hating on Tesla as much as the next person, but come on.
        
         | cachecrab wrote:
         | It's on a "per billion miles driven" basis so it is normalized.
        
         | FactKnower69 wrote:
         | If you had clicked through to the article before writing your
         | comment, you would know that the stat being compared is "fatal
         | crash rate per billion miles driven", and that the fatal crash
         | rate for Teslas is 2.0x the national average
        
       | Projectiboga wrote:
       | What is the Horsepower equivalent of the Tesla power trains? Is
       | this just because they are the new luxury sportscar and many of
       | these drivers haven't been trough major car repairs, ever? The
       | zero to sixty of even a basic Tesla is very quick and even with
       | strong breaking other physical limits with turning and
       | maneuvering can arise if some one is zooming around weaving in
       | traffic. These stats need to be studied by age and other
       | demographics like age, income and alcohol consumption.
        
         | MBCook wrote:
         | It's not just the horsepower, a big thing is the torque. There
         | is so much and it's available basically from zero. So even if
         | you can compare it to a combustion engine with the same amount
         | of horsepower it may take off the line a lot faster.
        
       | lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote:
       | I remember some car collision data that showed that men were more
       | likely to get into _any_ collision and women were more likely to
       | get into _a fatal_ collision. A comment I read about the study
       | suggested the conclusion that men take _more_ risks while women
       | take _bigger_ risks.
       | 
       | It's interesting to think in that context about this. Could Tesla
       | drivers be taking bigger risks because they think the car's
       | software will save them from the negative consequences of their
       | risky decisions? (As an extreme example, one such driver opted to
       | drive in the back seat instead of the driver's seat.
       | https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-highway-patr...)
        
         | sombrero_john wrote:
         | > A comment I read about the study suggested the conclusion
         | that men take more risks while women take bigger risks.
         | 
         | Or women's weaker musculoskeletal systems provide less
         | protection against blunt force trauma?
        
           | roughly wrote:
           | Or, like medicine and a whole variety of other fields, "male"
           | is assumed default and anyone who isn't the default has worse
           | outcomes.
           | 
           | https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/27/business/car-safety-
           | women...
        
           | mrguyorama wrote:
           | If you look into car safety testing and design, they haven't
           | used "Woman sized" crash test dummies until very very
           | recently.
           | 
           | Cars were less safe for women because they were not designed
           | to be safe for women.
        
       | bastloing wrote:
       | If you read the article it implies driver fault not car fault.
       | Tesla receiving the highest ever crash safety ratings echos that.
        
         | MBCook wrote:
         | The huge difference between their cars seems to indicate that
         | too. The Y is way above their brand average, for example.
        
       | yumraj wrote:
       | > "The models on this list likely reflect a combination of driver
       | behavior and driving conditions, leading to increased crashes and
       | fatalities,"
       | 
       | I'm assuming the driver behavior also includes relying on the
       | half baked auto pilot/FSD features.
        
       | fallingfrog wrote:
       | I wonder how this breaks down by region. I imagine a heavy car is
       | probably bad in the snow.
        
       | bilsbie wrote:
       | I'm really confused. A major reason I bought one was because I
       | heard they were so safe.
        
         | MBCook wrote:
         | If you read the end of the article they basically say that
         | Teslas are safe.
         | 
         | It really appears to be an issue of average Tesla driver
         | behavior compared to overall average driver behavior.
        
         | vegadw wrote:
         | I think they _probably_ are when not using  "autopilot" as
         | others are commenting, this isn't cause. It's likely that the
         | brand attracts a kind of driver that likes to speed or that
         | wants to over rely on assisted driving tech that isn't there
         | yet.
         | 
         | That said, I suspect they're regressing, like how they removed
         | ultrasonic sensors which are a dime a dozen to only rely on
         | computer vision. That's just plain stupid, IMHO.
         | 
         | For the money, I think you can do much better than a Tesla in
         | many regards, but I'm not about to shame you for reading
         | marketing and believing it either, especially if it was pre the
         | current Musk hell and the general knowledge that he's
         | essentially a fraudster given the perpetual 1 year away for
         | autopilot and what not.
        
       | itake wrote:
       | I wish this would break down driver and passenger deaths in the
       | tesla vs outside the tesla.
       | 
       | if other people are more likely to hit a tesla or are tesla
       | drivers usually at fault?
        
       | rahimnathwani wrote:
       | How does iSeeCars (who did the study) know how many miles were
       | driven by each brand's cars? It says they have a database of
       | cars, but do we know whether it's an unbiased sample?
        
         | postmeta wrote:
         | exactly, we should ask Karl Brauer to cite his sources and
         | explain his methodology
        
       | pluc wrote:
       | Let's put that guy in charge of government efficiency, what's the
       | worst that could happen
        
       | whitej125 wrote:
       | > Tesla vehicles have a fatal crash rate of 5.6 per billion miles
       | driven, according to the study;
       | 
       | > So, why are Teslas -- and many other ostensibly safe cars on
       | the list -- involved in so many fatal crashes? "The models on
       | this list likely reflect a combination of driver behavior and
       | driving conditions, leading to increased crashes and fatalities,"
       | 
       | What is the nature of those miles driven by each brand? I've got
       | to imagine that pure-EV companies like Tesla are predominantly
       | driven in urban/city driving (shorter daily distances, more
       | traffic, etc). In contrast to ICE cars which can rack up lots of
       | miles on long trips.
       | 
       | 1 billion Tesla miles I suspect looks different than 1 billion
       | Ford miles.
        
         | breckenedge wrote:
         | > In 2022, the rate of crash deaths per 100 million miles
         | traveled was much higher in rural areas than in urban areas
         | (1.68 in rural areas compared with 1.15 in urban areas). From
         | 1977 to 2022, the rates decreased by 61% in rural areas (from
         | 4.35 to 1.68) and 51% in urban areas (from 2.35 to 1.15).
         | 
         | https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/urban...
        
         | why_at wrote:
         | The ranking is still strange to me though. The model S is lower
         | than the model Y even though it is smaller and faster, both of
         | which should make it less safe, and the model 3 didn't even
         | make the list.
        
       | stbullard wrote:
       | Misleading/clickbait "journalism":
       | 
       | * The FARS data is "normalized" by unpublished internal iSeeCars
       | estimates of miles driven; the underlying "study" is a marketing
       | blog post for their company.
       | 
       | * FARS data distinguishes between driver and occupant fatalities
       | - the "study" looks only at occupant fatalities, which is not
       | what most people would reasonably expect given the headline.
       | 
       | * One might reasonably suspect Tesla's long history of touting
       | 5-star safety ratings and advanced safety tech could lead to
       | passengers being lulled into a false sense of security, and being
       | less likely to use seatbelts.
       | 
       | Driver fatalities and seatbelt use are right there in the FARS
       | data - one wonders why these weren't considered and incorporated
       | in the "study".
       | 
       | Anyhow, a note to the HN user: don't upvote FUD-sowing headlines
       | based on blog posts about unscientific "studies" that are really
       | just submarine PR; they carry none of the credibility of the
       | underlying studies, and are a disservice to the scientists and
       | public servants who rigorously and faithfully collect and analyze
       | this data.
       | 
       | HN used to be better than this...
        
         | drcode wrote:
         | Per page 234 of FARS, drivers are classified as occupants
         | https://www.ire.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/USERGUIDE-201...
        
       | _wire_ wrote:
       | In any lineup by height someone is tallest and someone is
       | shortest, so what's significant about Tesla in this spread? If
       | not them then another.
       | 
       | A significant aspect is that Telsa, as a harbinger of "progress",
       | by this measure is making cars less safe. That's a surprising
       | development as it's contrary to the promises and prognostications
       | for the devices.
       | 
       | It's expected that the distribution of harm from cars would
       | change with increasing automation, but the promise of the
       | automation is to make the devices safer overall. So is this a key
       | metric by which we find that the progress is actually a hazard,
       | or is the changing distribution part of an overall trend of
       | improvement with some hazardous edge cases?
       | 
       | All we have with this article is yet another headline with no
       | useful information.
       | 
       | > "A focused, alert driver, traveling at a legal or prudent
       | speed, without being under the influence of drugs or alcohol, is
       | the most likely to arrive safely regardless of the vehicle
       | they're driving."
       | 
       | What does "focused and alert" mean for a robot? Does arriving
       | safely allow a wake of carnage?
       | 
       | The Trump administration figures as a harbinger for such
       | questions in that he is a well-known champion of disinformation
       | in favor of his self interest, as are all of his cabinet picks
       | and advisors. But this is in keeping with the modern history of
       | the GOP.
        
       | Alupis wrote:
       | > The study's authors make clear that the results do not indicate
       | Tesla vehicles are inherently unsafe or have design flaws. In
       | fact, Tesla vehicles are loaded with safety technology; the
       | Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) named the 2024
       | Model Y as a Top Safety Pick+ award winner, for example. Many of
       | the other cars that ranked highly on the list have also been
       | given high ratings for safety by the likes of IIHS and the
       | National Highway Transportation Safety Administration, as well.
       | 
       | > So, why are Teslas -- and many other ostensibly safe cars on
       | the list -- involved in so many fatal crashes? "The models on
       | this list likely reflect a combination of driver behavior and
       | driving conditions, leading to increased crashes and fatalities,"
       | iSeeCars executive analyst Karl Brauer said in the report. "A
       | focused, alert driver, traveling at a legal or prudent speed,
       | without being under the influence of drugs or alcohol, is the
       | most likely to arrive safely regardless of the vehicle they're
       | driving."
       | 
       | Ok so Tesla's aren't less safe than any other vehicle in this
       | lineup. It's just that Tesla drivers are more likely to be
       | careless.
        
         | Nasrudith wrote:
         | My first thought was if mass got factored into it, but it looks
         | like mass has already crept up pretty high for other cars. A
         | Toyota Prius is about 3200 lbs and a Model 3 is about 4000 lbs
         | or 3800 lbs for their lightest variant. My mental models were
         | outdated and still imagined sedans as about one ton and change.
         | While bigger not as significant a factor as I initially
         | thought.
        
       | scruple wrote:
       | I spend a lot of time driving around Irvine, CA and it _feels
       | like_ the Tesla (especially Model Y) capital of the world. And I
       | am not at all surprised to see these sorts of fatality statistics
       | about these vehicles because _their drivers_ are, far and away,
       | the most distracted and oblivious drivers I have ever encountered
       | on the road in 28 years of driving.
        
       | jccc wrote:
       | Buried at the very end of the article:
       | 
       | > The models on this list likely reflect a combination of driver
       | behavior and driving conditions, leading to increased crashes and
       | fatalities," iSeeCars executive analyst Karl Brauer said in the
       | report.
       | 
       | > "A focused, alert driver, traveling at a legal or prudent
       | speed, without being under the influence of drugs or alcohol, is
       | the most likely to arrive safely regardless of the vehicle
       | they're driving.
        
       | jaco6 wrote:
       | The list of deadliest cars is a mixture of compact cars and
       | sports cars. Compact cars are less safe because they get
       | obliterated in collisions with bigger vehicles. Sports cars are
       | unsafe because drivers tend to drive them at high speeds and
       | attempt dangerous cornering maneuvers, eg driving the Pacific
       | Coastal Highway at high speeds.
       | 
       | Teslas are faster than many sports cars, but in the case of the
       | Model Y and Model X lack the preferred low profile of a true
       | sports car. In the case of the Model S, the acceleration is so
       | great that it is frankly surprising it doesn't rank higher. I
       | wonder how many new Model S owners have gotten themselves killed
       | within a few days of owning the car?
       | 
       | I myself purchased a Model 3 last year and drove it quite
       | foolishly for the first few months I had it. The acceleration was
       | so amazing to me coming from a Honda Accord that it was hard to
       | resist the temptation to weave and corner like a mad man. Model S
       | would have been even worse. The Model S also has a long body like
       | a full size sedan, not ideal for sports performance either,
       | compared to the Model 3's short length, more comparable to a
       | Corrola or Toyota BRZ.
       | 
       | So I suspect that speculations about "Tesla drivers being morons"
       | and "distracted by the screen" (almost all new cars have shiny
       | screens!) are nonsense.
       | 
       | But I do agree with some commenters that the autonomous features,
       | and particular misuse of those features, are probably a
       | contributor to these statistics as well. If you're new to them
       | you assume they are safer than they really are. With more
       | experience you realize you still need to be watching the road the
       | whole time.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2024-11-15 23:01 UTC)