[HN Gopher] Language agents achieve superhuman synthesis of scie...
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       Language agents achieve superhuman synthesis of scientific
       knowledge
        
       Author : rntn
       Score  : 38 points
       Date   : 2024-11-14 19:46 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (arxiv.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (arxiv.org)
        
       | therobot24 wrote:
       | i only performed a quick read of the paper but couldn't find how
       | many humans they used to generate their expected human
       | performance, this seems to be the main content:
       | 
       | > To ensure that we did not overfit PaperQA2 to achieve high
       | performance on LitQA2, we generated a new set of 101 LitQA2
       | questions after making most of the engineering changes to
       | PaperQA2. The accuracy of PaperQA2 on the original set of 147
       | questions did not differ significantly from its accuracy on the
       | latter set of 101 questions, indicating that our optimizations in
       | the first stage generalized well to new and unseen LitQA2
       | questions (Table 2).
       | 
       | > To compare PaperQA2 performance to human performance on the
       | same task, human annotators who either possessed a PhD in biology
       | or a related science, or who were enrolled in a PhD program (see
       | Section 8.2.1), were each provided a subset of LitQA2 questions
       | and a performance-related financial incentive of $3-12 per
       | question to answer as many questions correctly as possible within
       | approximately one week, using any online tools and paper access
       | provided by their institutions. Under these conditions, human
       | annotators achieved 73.8% +- 9.6% (mean +- SD, n = 9) precision
       | on LitQA2 and 67.7% +- 11.9% (mean +- SD, n = 9) accuracy (Figure
       | 2A, green line). PaperQA2 thus achieved superhuman precision on
       | this task (t(8.6) = 3.49, p = 0.0036) and did not differ
       | significantly from humans in accuracy (t(8.5) = -0.42, p = 0.66).
        
       | PaulKeeble wrote:
       | One of my big uses of LLM's has been searching through medical
       | research. The issue has been a few times running into confidence
       | where it shouldn't be but I have found it hallucinates a lot less
       | in science topics than it does for more common topics.
        
         | mdp2021 wrote:
         | > _hallucinates a lot less in science topics_
         | 
         | Extremely dangerous for that one detail you will not expect
         | also since hallucination becomes more rare; extremely dangerous
         | in the hands of practitioners non paranoid in front of
         | hallucination.
         | 
         | (Incidentally: apparently, somebody recently lost a house after
         | having some chatbot write the contract. This is indicative of
         | the possible level of carelessness of users.
         | 
         | Edit: I am trying to find that piece of news, but it seems non
         | trivial. Maybe the original reference itself, which reported
         | the news, was victim of hallucination? Meanwhile, I have found
         | this noteworthy piece: _firm allows people to have contractual
         | terms presented by chatbot, which presents hallucinated terms,
         | and loses legal action_ - https://mashable.com/article/air-
         | canada-forced-to-refund-aft... )
        
       | tantalor wrote:
       | I have an idea how to test whether AI can be a good scientist:
       | 
       | Train on all published scientific knowledge and observations up
       | to certain point, before a breakthrough occurred. Then see if
       | your AI can generate the breakthrough on its own.
       | 
       | For example, prior to 1900 quantum theory did not exist. Given
       | what we knew then, could AI reproduce the ideas of Planck,
       | Einstein, Bohr etc?
       | 
       | If not, then AI will never be useful for generating scientific
       | theory.
        
         | polishdude20 wrote:
         | Or just have the AI generate new specific experimental setups
         | and parameters that we can try and be like "oh yeah, we just
         | made a room temperature superconductor".
         | 
         | Honestly given what we know about physics, the AI should be
         | able to simulate physics within itself or deduce certain things
         | we've missed.
        
           | AnimalMuppet wrote:
           | > Honestly given what we know about physics, the AI should be
           | able to simulate physics within itself or deduce certain
           | things we've missed.
           | 
           | If by "AI" you mean language models, then no, it will _not_
           | "be able to simulate physics within itself". No way.
        
             | polishdude20 wrote:
             | Oh no I mean if we claim we have an AGI and it's true, it
             | should be able to do that. LLMs are not that
        
             | potatoman22 wrote:
             | It can simulate basic problems well enough when viewed as a
             | black box. Give it one of Galileo's experiments.
        
         | tiahura wrote:
         | Discover quantum mechanics or you're a failure!
         | 
         | I hope your approach with your kids is a bit more nuanced.
        
           | tasty_freeze wrote:
           | Is your second sentence sincere? Attacking someone's
           | parenting to win rhetorical points on an unrelated topic is
           | pretty low.
        
         | vzaliva wrote:
         | I don't think this is the main point of the paper. They're not
         | claiming that AI is capable of scientific breakthroughs.
         | Rather, they argue that AI excels at summarising vast amounts
         | of existing scientific knowledge.
        
           | tantalor wrote:
           | That's literally what "knowledge synthesis" is. Not just
           | summarizing, but "the combination of ideas to form a theory
           | or system."
           | 
           | Breakthroughs are just a special case of synthesis.
        
             | wslh wrote:
             | Formally speaking, breakthroughs are not simply a subset of
             | synthesis, as they can exist outside the realm of prior
             | knowledge.
        
       | dcreater wrote:
       | Academic writing is notoriously hard to read and often poorly
       | written. If this lives up to billing it will be a game changer -
       | no need to rely on sporadic, manual, intrinsically limited nature
       | of surveys from academics, analysts through to gym bros, reddit
       | posters.
        
       | handfuloflight wrote:
       | Github: https://github.com/Future-House/paper-qa
        
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