[HN Gopher] Terence Tao: "It can become more rational to think a...
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       Terence Tao: "It can become more rational to think and act more
       boldly"
        
       Author : bertman
       Score  : 41 points
       Date   : 2024-11-14 08:32 UTC (14 hours ago)
        
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       | mont_tag wrote:
       | Python code to match the article:                   from
       | statistics import NormalDist              def var(nd):
       | 'Value at risk'             return nd.stdev - nd.mean
       | safe = NormalDist(5, 3)         bold = NormalDist(9, 10)
       | shock = NormalDist(-5, 10)              print('Safe: %s\tBold:
       | %s\tBaseline' % (var(safe), var(bold)))         print('Safe:
       | %s\tBold: %s\tConstant shock' % (var(safe - 5), var(bold - 5)))
       | print('Safe: %s\tBold: %s\tUncorrelated shock' % (var(safe +
       | shock), var(bold + shock)))         print('Safe: %s\tBold:
       | %s\tCorrelated shock' % (var(safe * 2), var(bold *2)))
        
       | biomcgary wrote:
       | Am I correct to assume people are upvoting this as a possible
       | explanation for the outcome of the US Presidential election?
       | 
       | I.e., if people think that they are in economic doldrums or
       | decline, taking a risk seems better than the status quo?
       | 
       | Voting out the incumbent party seems popular during economic
       | downturns (real or perceived) unless the party clearly inherited
       | the economic crisis AND seems to be addressing the problem
       | energetically (e.g., post-1929 FDR).
        
         | hyperpape wrote:
         | I immediately jumped to a commentary on the impacts of AI, but
         | really it's probably a bit of a Rohrschach test.
        
         | brailsafe wrote:
         | I had a similar thought recently as someone not in the U.S and
         | who doesn't care that much. If hypothetically prompted, there's
         | a way in which I could say "Well it was more sensible to vote
         | for Trump". If no other context was asked for, I'd probably be
         | thought of as a Trump person, but if it was, I'd explain that I
         | can see why a lot of people preferred him or didn't prefer the
         | other, therefore for them it's sensible, and democracy worked
         | as intended.
        
           | immibis wrote:
           | It's incredible how, unlike the first Trump presidency,
           | nobody is trying to convince anyone that a Trump presidency
           | will be bad. It's as if all relevant information has already
           | been shared and there is no point in repeating it. Instead
           | they just shift all their money to the stock market and
           | Tesla, and/or leave the state or country.
        
             | brailsafe wrote:
             | Which ultimately is the best course of action, but whoever
             | would try doesn't have much of a compelling alternative to
             | suggest, and probably it doesn't matter that much. As a
             | citizen you can vote, and beyond that you're probably
             | wasting your (expensive) time and energy. To me it's akin
             | to the people who stay in their hometown haplessly hoping
             | it'll eventually align with what they want it to be like
             | (while secretly hoping it doesn't change that much in the
             | other direction); the only answer really is to just respond
             | sensibly and gtfo for sometimes literally greener grass.
             | Gosh I wish my hometown would build a proper transit
             | system, but it's completely economically destitute and
             | fiscally conservative, and now that I live in an
             | objectively better city that has one, the scope in which I
             | need to care is limited to when I visit.
        
         | immibis wrote:
         | I don't think this is sufficient to make a Trump vote logical -
         | if you've paid any attention at all to how the Republicans and
         | Democrats operate, the expectation value of a Republican
         | presidency is much lower than a Democrat one, for most people,
         | under any reasonable utility function.
         | 
         | It really is as simple: if you feel bad, vote for the other
         | guy. (Which is also how [REDACTED BY MODERATOR] got elected)
        
       | gmays wrote:
       | "In times of great uncertainty, the relative value of "playing it
       | safe" is reduced, since - for better or for worse - no option can
       | now reduce risk to truly safe levels. And so, paradoxically, in
       | times of risk and uncertainty, it can actually become more
       | rational to think and act more boldly - or more precisely, to
       | bring one's personal risk tolerance to match the amount of
       | external risk present in the system."
        
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       (page generated 2024-11-14 23:01 UTC)