[HN Gopher] Bad science as genre fiction
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       Bad science as genre fiction
        
       Author : nabla9
       Score  : 14 points
       Date   : 2024-11-08 15:44 UTC (6 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu)
 (TXT) w3m dump (statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu)
        
       | vundercind wrote:
       | I was going to write that this comparison makes me think of
       | largely-wrong "surprising truths!" airport non-fic books, but I
       | see on further reading that the author is way ahead of me and
       | this analysis includes those in its scope.
       | 
       | To the formulaic-ness of it, there's the recurring ha-ha-only-
       | serious quip from the If Books Could Kill podcasters that the
       | more bad self-help, political hack, and trendy "science" books
       | they read, the more sure they are that they're all actually the
       | same book.
        
         | Handprint4469 wrote:
         | 100%
         | 
         | I used to be a sucker for this type of books: non-fiction,
         | "science-based", feel-good, insight-porn pamphlets inflated to
         | 300 pages with shoehorned anecdotes and a very distinct flavour
         | of extrapolative slop.
         | 
         | They are usually written by journalists, TED-addicted
         | researchers and, more recently, Youtube and Twitter
         | influencers.
         | 
         | The depressing thing is: For me, the realization that 99% of
         | them are shit only came after reading hundreds of them. My
         | guess is that my brain needed enough samples in order to start
         | accurately classifying them.
         | 
         | It's like one develops taste only after being exposed to a lot
         | of terrible art, since then the actual great art stands out
         | like a beacon.
        
           | vundercind wrote:
           | In Adler's ( _How to Read a Book_ ) terms, I think lots of
           | folks don't naturally learn to do his "third reading"[1]
           | simultaneously with the first two readings (or maybe at
           | all?), and tend to read a book only once, or to read it more
           | than once but doing the "same" reading each time. That plus
           | some assumptions that the social proof of a book getting
           | recommended by, say, Bill Gates and being a bestseller means
           | it must not just be a whole bunch of lazy crap that sometimes
           | contradicts its own citations, can explain a lot of things
           | slipping by a person that, viewed with hindsight, were pretty
           | sketchy.
           | 
           | Certain social science or liberal arts programs are pretty
           | good at, if nothing else, pushing students to get better at
           | that "third reading" and developing a heuristic, automatic
           | sense for when a piece is behaving in a maybe-dodgy way, but
           | I think a lot of other programs aren't, so even educated
           | people, at least those who don't just naturally pick the
           | skill up young, may take a rougher road to it, if they ever
           | pick it up. (Yes, I'm aware that my calling out some social
           | science training as a good way to hone that skill is funny,
           | given how much junk science, pop and otherwise, centers
           | around the social sciences)
           | 
           | [1] Adler's three readings are: 1) coming to terms--that is,
           | seeking an understanding of the basic assumptions,
           | definitions, context, et c, the author is operating under,
           | and the basic thrust or topic or goal of the work; 2)
           | Understanding the author's argument, message, points and so
           | forth; 3) critical reading--is the message any good? Does it
           | hold together? Are the definitions and premises well-
           | considered, useful, and applied consistently? Does that
           | passage there look a bit _iffy_ , is perhaps worded like the
           | author's trying to get away with something, and maybe needs a
           | closer look? If such-and-such part crumbles on closer
           | examination or consultation of other sources, what of the
           | rest is salvageable, if any?
        
         | csours wrote:
         | Yeah, lately I've begun asking myself "How much work would you
         | actually need to do to know this or prove this, and what would
         | that work look like"
        
       | csours wrote:
       | I believe that we process facts in a narrative. If you look at a
       | bare fact, your mind automatically creates a narrative.
       | 
       | Murder rate 1%
       | 
       | 22 Angstrom
       | 
       | Purple Burglar Alarm
       | 
       | That narrative takes place in a framing story.
       | 
       | 'Science', among other things, is a very detailed framing story
       | that modern society uses to evaluate facts.
       | 
       | An individual's framing story includes all of their history and
       | biases and motivated reasoning and incentives and all the rest of
       | the fallacies.
       | 
       | So yes, bad science is fiction, but even good science is
       | narrative. If this feels wrong, go re-read a paper. Look at a
       | figure or a sentence in the abstract. Your mind constructs a
       | narrative.
        
         | aithrowawaycomm wrote:
         | Andrew addressed this in the comments:
         | Regarding storytelling: Thomas Basboll and I have argued that
         | stories are important not just for communicating science to
         | others but also in doing good science.           My perspective
         | here is:            1. Fictional stories are an informal sort
         | of predictive model checking, in which the process of working
         | out a story is a way of understanding the implications of a
         | scenario.            2. Nonfiction stories are a sort of prior
         | predictive check, where the unexpected twist that makes the
         | story so satisfying represents a revelation of some aspect of
         | reality that confounds our expectations, that is, does not fit
         | with our implicit or explicit model of the world.
         | 
         | That second point is a bit murky but this is a comment on a
         | blog :) Here is the much more detailed paper he co-wrote with
         | Basboll:
         | http://stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/storytel...
        
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