[HN Gopher] FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
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FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
Author : jaboutboul
Score : 72 points
Date : 2024-11-13 21:29 UTC (1 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.axios.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.axios.com)
| koolba wrote:
| According to the NY Post they came in at 6am this morning and
| seized his phone and other electronics:
| https://nypost.com/2024/11/13/business/fbi-seizes-polymarket...
| underseacables wrote:
| I think the key factor here is that the website allowed Americans
| to bet on the political market. Which I still don't quite
| understand, the FBI waiting until after the election for this.
| Why didn't they go after them sooner?
|
| Feels wrong.
| JumpCrisscross wrote:
| > _Which I still don 't quite understand, the FBI waiting until
| after the election for this. Why didn't they go after them
| sooner?_
|
| Because the conspiracy theorists wouldn't have gone to town if
| the market predicting Trump's win were shut down _before_ the
| election?
|
| Polymarket hit popular imagination in the summer of 2023 with
| the Titan submersible [1]. American political betting didn't
| hit papers until earlier this year. We're well within normal
| FBI timelines for executing a first search.
|
| [1] https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-missing-submarine-
| be-f...
| bigtechennui wrote:
| One explanation is it gives Polymarket more rope to hang
| themselves with. Trading volume likely spiked in the lead up,
| and during, election night. Big numbers make for splashier
| headlines.
|
| Another could be concern of doing anything visibly election
| related prior to the election, in case the winner didn't like
| the action.
| inglor_cz wrote:
| While I understand that logic, I also find it a bit
| distasteful. Law enforcement shouldn't tolerate crimes being
| committed on its watch any longer than necessary.
|
| Of course, the exact meaning of "necessary" is the problem.
| We can probably all agree that letting a serial murderer kill
| more people in order to have more evidence against him would
| be an absolute abomination. But the situation is not that
| clear with white-collar crime, especially the sort of crime
| where the harm is not immediately obvious.
|
| Maybe the fact that the FBI could wait that long before
| pouncing indicates that this sort of betting is, in fact, a
| victimless crime.
| dopamean wrote:
| They probably have a different definition of what is
| "necessary" than you. If waiting for further crimes to be
| committed makes the case more of a sure thing in their
| eyes) then it's necessary. Or if it gives them more serious
| crimes to prosecute or a higher up person to prosecute. I
| believe this is common in organized crime investigations.
| legitster wrote:
| Shutting them down before the election would have been much,
| much, much worse.
| csours wrote:
| https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/what-does-the-60-day-ru...
|
| https://www.justice.gov/jm/jm-9-85000-protection-government-...
|
| > " Any action likely to raise an issue or the perception of an
| issue under this provision requires consultation with the
| Public Integrity Section, and such action shall not be taken if
| the Public Integrity Section advises that further consultation
| is required with the Deputy Attorney General or Attorney
| General. "
|
| Don't get stuck in a framing story.
| scottyah wrote:
| Robinhood launched a new feature where we could bet on the
| presidential candidate. I've heard of a couple others too, so I
| think that laws were created and funded by competitors, and
| they defined what was legal in a way that excluded polymarket.
|
| I think in this case, polymarket allows betting on anything,
| competitors got betting on the election legalized
| (https://www.barrons.com/news/last-minute-legal-ruling-
| allows...), so they get the cash from polymarket's idea then
| get them banned/stopped long enough to take their market share.
|
| VC's call it Regulatory Capture, politicians call it
| corruption.
| legitster wrote:
| Obviously there are no details yet, but I suspect it's as simple
| as:
|
| - Polymarket is still very illegal in the US
|
| - Lol. We all know it's easy to get around that
|
| - If the CEO knew or was complicit in US citizens breaking laws,
| he could be in trouble. And if there was evidence he was
| _encouraging_ it, he could be in big trouble
| herpderperator wrote:
| Can someone explain to me how this is? It's a company HQ'd in
| New York, but it's not allowed to do business in the very
| country it's HQ'd in? What am I missing?
| vinay427 wrote:
| As I understand it (very much not a lawyer), the company
| complies with US laws by not allowing people in the US to use
| it, so there's no issue doing business.
| kwisatzh wrote:
| He'll get pardoned. It's a Thiel company.
| bequanna wrote:
| Maybe he shouldn't have been arrested in the first place?
| JumpCrisscross wrote:
| > _he shouldn't have been arrested in the first place?_
|
| Was he arrested? The article only mentions a search.
| edm0nd wrote:
| He wasnt arrested nor has been charged with anything. Try
| again.
| encoderer wrote:
| I'm willing to let the government make their case, but
| let's not pretend that a 6am raid from the feds is better
| than getting arrested.
| nshkrdotcom wrote:
| A 6am raid from the feds is better than getting arrested.
| It is.
| beejiu wrote:
| Can we please stop calling them "prediction markets". This only
| legitimizes what they really are, "gambling exchanges".
| nickff wrote:
| I am not familiar with the term 'gambling exchange', where'd
| you get it? Many 'sportsbooks' are referred to as 'betting
| exchanges', but that has become something of a term of art,
| much like the term 'prediction market'.
|
| In any case, attempting to use a derogatory or denigrating
| euphemism to refer to something is usually less productive than
| simply exposing (what you perceive to be) its faults. What
| specific issues do you have with these markets/exchanges?
| troad wrote:
| Not GP, but I suspect it's the gambling part? Hence the name?
|
| Gambling is a destructive addition that the vast majority of
| participants cannot manage well. It harms not only them, but
| their children and their spouses. How many a kid's college
| fund has gone up in smoke? A lot of harm is done to very
| innocent people in pursuit of a ten second rush. (Much like
| all other addictions.)
|
| I also very respectfully disagree that inventing a name for
| something is not productive - it's incredible effective, in
| fact. That's why political campaigns often favour duelling
| names over hot button issues: it's easier to win broad based
| support from soccer moms and football dads for 'marriage
| equality', whereas 'homosexual marriage' may be a harder
| sell. See also 'medicare for all' versus 'socialized
| medicine', 'pro-choice' v 'pro-life' etc.
| beejiu wrote:
| But it is not derogatory or euphemistic, it is descriptive.
| Polymarket _is_ gambling by any definition. Gambling is known
| and proven to have great harms and risks to society.
|
| (And I got the term "gambling exchange" from the UK where
| Betfair Exhange basically does what Polymarket do since 2000,
| without the Crypto glamour.)
| sitzkrieg wrote:
| are futures markets gambling in your eyes because
| speculators can participate?
| snakeyjake wrote:
| Yes.
| beejiu wrote:
| I can only speak from a UK perspective, but many
| financial instruments can be used in a gambling sense by
| retail "investors". In 2019, our regulator banned binary
| options, saying this:
|
| "Binary options are gambling products dressed up as
| financial instruments. By confirming our ban today we are
| ensuring that investors don't lose money from an
| inherently flawed product."
|
| https://www.fca.org.uk/news/statements/fca-confirms-
| permanen....
|
| Sound familiar?
|
| They also highly regulate CFDs and other financial
| instruments that are marketed to retail.
| mrcode007 wrote:
| IIRC There is only one prediction market with a single
| regulatory exemption granted for the University of Iowa and
| the bets are limited to $500.
|
| The rest of what we see are (binary) event contracts
| (options)
|
| Based on my understanding, which may be incorrect, they seem
| to be basically a rebranding of binary options which were
| illegal in the US for the longest time. With a clever
| renaming trick things now work :)
| yieldcrv wrote:
| since I like gambling on stock exchanges and table games I
| prefer the more nuanced term for the specific game I'm playing.
|
| its more wasteful for some segment of our society to need a
| distinction between investing or gambling at all, the people
| they're competing against don't care, don't have any cultural
| limitation, religious limitation, or peer group that needs this
| distinction. and your "legitimizes" wording looks based on
| needing a distinction.
|
| even with the "positive or negative expected value" metrics to
| distinguish some financial games, I've traded options contracts
| with a lower expected value than a table game at a casino. so
| just don't worry about the distinction and use our words for
| the specific game we're playing. prediction markets are
| prediction markets.
| alsetmusic wrote:
| > "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing
| administration against Polymarket for providing a market that
| correctly called the 2024 presidential election," a Polymarket
| spokesperson tells Axios. "Polymarket is a fully transparent
| prediction market that helps everyday people better understand
| the events that matter most to them, including elections."
|
| Funny how one side is continually targeted unfairly, almost as if
| it's their motto, and the other side more or less never makes the
| same claim. Is it because one side is full of lies or because the
| other is too timid to call out the persecution?
|
| That was a rhetorical question. Crypto bros and the like
| (including people who would run a market like this) are typically
| right-leaning or libertarian. They're fundamentally dishonest.
| (I'm not claiming liberals don't also lie; just that it isn't a
| standard operating procedure on the scale of the right.)
| neilv wrote:
| > _" This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing
| administration against Polymarket for providing a market that
| correctly called the 2024 presidential election," a Polymarket
| spokesperson tells Axios._
|
| When I saw that statement, from a company spokesperson, it was
| striking.
|
| Is it now respectable and advisable for a corporation to make
| official statements like this?
| lupusreal wrote:
| Respectable is subjective. Advisable? If they're probably
| guilty then appealing to the biases of the incoming
| administration is probably a good idea. On the other hand, if
| they're innocent and their accusation of bias is accurate, then
| saying as much is probably a good idea too.
| iAMkenough wrote:
| If the bar for decorum is the President-elect, then yes this
| would be considered an acceptable statement.
| ronsor wrote:
| Corporations have been making these kinds of statements for
| almost the past decade.
| PittleyDunkin wrote:
| Have corporations ever not played the "aggrieved victim"
| card?
| ronsor wrote:
| The social/political appeal part is the new part. Companies
| have always released "we did nothing wrong" statements.
| Imnimo wrote:
| >This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing
| administration against Polymarket for providing a market that
| correctly called the 2024 presidential election
|
| I don't even understand what the conspiracy theory is here. Why
| would that be something the Biden administration would seek
| retribution for? And even it were, how would they possibly
| achieve it before the new administration takes office?
| daft_pink wrote:
| It's sad that something based on the Wisdom of Crowds by James
| Surowiecki is being politicized as gambling. It's crucial that we
| have prediction markets so that we can better understand the
| risks of things happening in our world.
| aiforecastthway wrote:
| 1. We do have prediction markets -- Kalshi, IB, and Robinhood
| all offered binary options contracts on election outcomes this
| year.
|
| 2. A ton of options trading _is_ gambling, and binary options
| on events particularly so. Doesn 't mean it should be illegal,
| of course, but I think that's just a facially obvious truth
| that we should all be honest with one another about.
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