[HN Gopher] The Silurian Hypothesis
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The Silurian Hypothesis
        
       Author : gtsnexp
       Score  : 107 points
       Date   : 2024-11-11 12:38 UTC (10 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (pacificklaus.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (pacificklaus.com)
        
       | pvg wrote:
       | Related discussion about a year ago
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38668884
       | 
       | And some threads from 2, 4, 5 and 7 years ago (did a pre-
       | civilization discuss the possibility of a pre-pre-civilization?)
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34755970
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23654393
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21840320
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17899478
        
         | dang wrote:
         | Thanks! Macroexpanded:
         | 
         |  _Possible to detect an industrial civilization in geological
         | record? (2018)_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38668884
         | - Dec 2023 (187 comments)
         | 
         |  _Silurian Hypothesis_ -
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34755970 - Feb 2023 (60
         | comments)
         | 
         |  _Did Advanced Civilizations Exist Before Humans? Silurian
         | Hypothesis [video]_ -
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32837757 - Sept 2022 (1
         | comment)
         | 
         |  _Silurian Hypothesis: Were There Civilizations on Earth Before
         | Humans? (2018)_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23654393
         | - June 2020 (138 comments)
         | 
         |  _The Silurian Hypothesis_ -
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21840320 - Dec 2019 (52
         | comments)
         | 
         |  _Silurian hypothesis_ -
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17899478 - Sept 2018 (7
         | comments)
        
       | madaxe_again wrote:
       | I often think that a more interesting question would be that if
       | there were another civilisation here on earth _right now_ , would
       | we even recognise it as such?
       | 
       | We are terribly preoccupied with tool use and physical artefacts
       | as a defining factor of intelligence - anthropocentrism is of
       | course pretty much inevitable, even when we talk of cephalopods.
        
         | malfist wrote:
         | Check out the book "Mountain in the Sea", it's based on that
         | premise and is a nebula award winner
        
           | world2vec wrote:
           | It's an amazing book, highly recommend.
        
           | madaxe_again wrote:
           | Sounds very much like my cup of tea, thanks! I've ordered it.
        
         | necroforest wrote:
         | yeah, and as far as I'm aware there isn't even a _definition_
         | of  "civilization" or "intelligence" that doesn't boil down to
         | "sufficiently like me".
        
           | empath75 wrote:
           | I'm with you on intelligence, but the hallmark of
           | civilization is right in the etymology -- the existence of
           | cities.
        
             | AnimalMuppet wrote:
             | Well, all right, do ants form cities? Yes, they do, at
             | least of a kind.
             | 
             | You could even argue that lichen is a city, inhabited by
             | multiple species.
             | 
             | I mean, I'm not sure I'd go so far as to argue than either
             | of those really are a civilization. But if "city" is your
             | sole criterion...
        
               | PaulHoule wrote:
               | Or a beehive. Bees moved into the basement window of my
               | house and watching them go in and out it seemed to me
               | that this single beehive had more departures and arrivals
               | than all the commercial airports in the world put
               | together.
               | 
               | If you look at the problem of "bee decline" from the
               | viewpoint of the beekeeper where you are responsible for
               | it you are responsible for a "city" of 50,000 insects
               | that faces all kinds of threats from the inside and
               | outside.
        
               | saalweachter wrote:
               | Ant nests and beehives aren't cities, they are
               | households, consisting of a single family.
        
             | krisoft wrote:
             | > hallmark of civilization is right in the etymology -- the
             | existence of cities.
             | 
             | That is not really the etymology of "civilisation" though.
             | City and civilisation share etymological roots, but city is
             | not the etymological origin of the world civilisation.
             | 
             | And of course then we just ask the question: what are
             | cities? Do gopher, or prairie dog colonies count? (or are
             | those just towns? :)) How about ant colonies or bee hives?
             | 
             | Clearly all of the above share some similarities with some
             | human settlements. They also have important differences of
             | course. So if we want to decide if there are other
             | "civilisations" on Earth parallel with us, we have to be
             | more precise with our definitions.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _city is not the etymological origin of the world
               | civilisation_
               | 
               | Civilisations are a subset of societies [1]. Urbanisation
               | is commonly held as a divider between complex societies
               | and full-blown civilisations.
               | 
               | > _then we just ask the question: what are cities?_
               | 
               | This is valid. I'd say the defining attribute is
               | economies of scale. Ant colonies and bee hives
               | demonstrate elements of this; the sum is greater than the
               | whole.
               | 
               | Whether ants and bees form complex societies is less
               | debatable, unless we reduce the terms to mean intricate
               | where we begin enveloping colonies of trees and every
               | social animal, potentially even just multicellular life,
               | which while poetically pleasing isn't useful.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilization
        
         | pvg wrote:
         | _tool use and physical artefacts_
         | 
         | Maybe but it's also because these things are evidence of
         | cultural transmission - a thing for which there hasn't been
         | strong evidence of in other species and people do look for it
         | in other ways.
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _We are terribly preoccupied with tool use and physical
         | artefacts as a defining factor of intelligence_
         | 
         | In the context of civilisation, intelligence isn't enough.
         | Nomadic tribes are sapient, intelligent and have rich cultures,
         | but they aren't strictly civilisations.
         | 
         | The urban distinction is important because of economies of
         | scale: pastoral societies are energy constrained. That doesn't
         | make them less interesting, again strictly speaking, personally
         | it sort of does, but it does make them less powerful.
         | 
         | Within the Silurian context, the urban distinction is almost
         | demanding: if humans stopped at Neolithic pastoralism, there is
         | a good chance all evidence of our tool use would have
         | disappeared within a few millennia, let alone millions of
         | years.
        
           | pvg wrote:
           | _Nomadic tribes are sapient, intelligent and have rich
           | cultures, but they aren't strictly civilisations._
           | 
           | Some pastoral societies have taken serious issue with this
           | view
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_Empire#/media/File:Mong.
           | ..
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _Some pastoral societies have taken serious issue with
             | this view_
             | 
             | Where is the evidence the Mongols took issue with this
             | view? They certainly seemed to recognise the value of
             | cities.
             | 
             | To my knowledge, the practice of falsely conflating
             | intelligence and civilisation to be offended that not every
             | society formed a civilisation is a modern occupation.
        
               | pvg wrote:
               | _Where is the evidence the Mongols took issue with this
               | view?_
               | 
               | I think if you eat all neighbouring civilizations in a
               | few decades, you're definitely a civilization.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _if you eat all neighbouring civilizations in a few
               | decades, you 're definitely a civilization_
               | 
               | If you run the cities, yes. If you only raid them, no.
               | 
               | (The Mongols built roads and founded a Chinese dynasty.
               | They were a civilisation.)
        
               | pvg wrote:
               | This is a slightly silly discussion because the
               | 'civilization' the Silurian hypothesis is concerned with
               | is something like human civilization as a whole.
               | 
               | Whether pastoralists are a 'civilization' (or even more
               | fraught, 'civilized') seems like a completely arbitrary
               | distinction to try to make, especially on the basis of
               | something like 'cities'. The ability to organize, direct,
               | coordinate, supply and project military power over great
               | distances is a hallmark of plenty of things we think of
               | as 'civilizations' and the Mongols were easily the world
               | heavyweight champion of that, in their day. A great
               | number of people found out the fact a stone wall is much
               | harder to move than a yurt is not the tremendous
               | civilizational advantage they thought it was.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _is a slightly silly discussion because the
               | 'civilization' the Silurian hypothesis is concerned with
               | is something like human civilization as a whole_
               | 
               | Going back to the top comment: "Within the Silurian
               | context, the urban distinction is almost demanding: if
               | humans stopped at Neolithic pastoralism, there is a good
               | chance all evidence of our tool use would have
               | disappeared within a few millennia, let alone millions of
               | years."
        
               | AlotOfReading wrote:
               | I've done archaeological work in Mongolia. The oldest
               | things I've found predate the last glacial maximum. Those
               | rocks might not have survived a few million more years,
               | but I can certainly think of lithics that would.
        
               | digging wrote:
               | Is bubonic plague a civilization? How about a stray gamma
               | ray burst?
        
               | pvg wrote:
               | I don't think this is the rhetorical killshot you seem to
               | believe it is.
        
         | kijin wrote:
         | Trust me, if there were another civilization anywhere near us,
         | we'd be at war with it.
         | 
         | No matter what the other civilization looks like, that's how
         | we've always reacted. It's almost a defining characteristic of
         | our civilization.
        
         | bloak wrote:
         | When talking about aliens people often use the word
         | "civilisation" to mean just "intelligence" and perhaps that's
         | what you're doing because you're thinking about something that
         | doesn't resemble a human civilisation. I agree with you that an
         | alien intelligence might be very different from a human
         | civilisation. Also, an alien intelligence might not even
         | qualify as a form of life (it might be an artificial
         | intelligence).
        
         | Liquix wrote:
         | our senses are only equipped to experience small subsets of the
         | whole - there's a huge range of sounds impercetible to human
         | ears, our eyes can only perceive light in the visible spectrum,
         | a dog's nose can detect orders of magnitude more information
         | than a human's.
         | 
         | if the five senses can only percieve a fraction of that which
         | they have been honed for over millennia, it's not unreasonable
         | to wonder if there is much more to the world/earth than meets
         | the eye, inaccessible and unintelligible to physical ape life
         | or existing in ways we aren't equipped to percieve.
        
       | ProjectArcturis wrote:
       | The author's hypothetical octopus "civilization" lacks most of
       | the characteristics we associate with civilization. He seems to
       | assume that agriculture, in the sense of pastoralism, is the only
       | criterion. If this is the case, then ants have been running
       | aphid-farming civilizations for millions of years. Leaf-cutter
       | ants have run fungus farms as well.
       | 
       | I wouldn't be at all surprised that octopi and many other animals
       | have loose farming-like behaviors. This is a far cry from what we
       | generally mean by civilization.
       | 
       | In particular, I believe the domestication of fire is the
       | dividing line between humans and animals. This tool provides
       | access to an enormous new source of energy, which opened a myriad
       | of possibilities unavailable to animals. The tool use and motor
       | skills needed to build, maintain, and use fire probably was a
       | significant stimulus to human brain development.
       | 
       | Cephalopods, of course, would have no opportunity to master fire.
        
         | ragebol wrote:
         | Why fire? Why is that so different from other tools that
         | require significant effort to create?
         | 
         | Some animals use some tools, but mostly just sticks IIRC, with
         | no effort to creating them, beyond breaking one off a tree.
         | Maybe the criterion 'spend a lot of effort to create a tool' is
         | the criterion, since having the time to spend on tool making
         | requires someone else to get food for you etc. so is that
         | getting towards a civilization?
        
           | AnimalMuppet wrote:
           | Why fire? Because, as the GP said, it lets you use energy
           | that isn't your own physical, biological energy. It lets you
           | "level up" in a way that a muscle-powered tool doesn't.
           | 
           | What they didn't say: It also lets you smelt metals. That
           | lets you build much better tools.
        
             | PaulHoule wrote:
             | Also fire will be a great help in figuring out other
             | chemistry.
             | 
             | There's a hypothetical alternate path where you build the
             | "head end" of civilization using advanced biotechnology,
             | synthetic organism, fermentation, 3-d printing and such.
             | It's an attractive path for human space colonists but how
             | would you figure out the genetic code without metal, glass,
             | computers and such?
        
               | Teever wrote:
               | I think that we're kind of biased about these sort of
               | things due to the limitations that evolution has placed
               | on most animals.
               | 
               | We take for granted that we cannot regrow lost limbs or
               | direct individual cells to grow into arbitrary organs as
               | directed by our brains because we can't do it but there's
               | no intrinsic biological reason why that must be so.
               | 
               | In a hypothetical first contact situation with
               | intelligent life as we know it they may find it absurd
               | that we can't do those things and wonder how we reached
               | the technological level that we have despite having to
               | spend so many resources on hospitals, work place safety
               | and mechanical R&D instead of just growing what we need
               | what we need it.
               | 
               | Our understanding of things like metal, glass, and
               | computers would be totally different and far more
               | implicit if we could simply grow organs or organisms that
               | produce things for us on a molecular level if evolution
               | had granted our brains the ability to control individual
               | cells of our body.
        
               | PaulHoule wrote:
               | If a species were committed to very long survival or
               | space travel there is a good chance, I think, they would
               | consider making changes to their own biology.
               | 
               | For instance most of the places that are "habitable" in
               | this universe are on water moons or outer solar
               | system/interstellar bodies that have water inside because
               | of pressure and tidal and geothermal heating. A motivated
               | enough race could create some species (is this the right
               | language?) that would represent itself to take advantage
               | of these sorts of habitats.
        
             | PhasmaFelis wrote:
             | Until the industrial age, I think fire was less about
             | having more energy to work with and more about things that
             | could never be done with any amount of mechanical power:
             | heat, light, cooking and all its many benefits, repelling
             | nocturnal predators, and transforming available materials
             | in many useful ways (including smelting but also e.g. fire-
             | hardened wood).
             | 
             | It did also replaced mechanical energy in some ways, e.g.
             | hollowing out bowls or canoes, primitive mining by using
             | large fires to crack rock faces. But I feel like those are
             | less transformative than the other effects.
        
           | andrewflnr wrote:
           | > This tool provides access to an enormous new source of
           | energy, which opened a myriad of possibilities unavailable to
           | animals.
           | 
           | I'm not going to stand by that reasoning personally, but it's
           | a pretty distinct change in kind.
        
           | nkrisc wrote:
           | Because with a small amount of your own energy as input, you
           | unlock vast amounts of potential chemical energy. No other
           | tool used by other animals comes anywhere close in terms of
           | efficiency. And no other animal is anywhere near as
           | "civilized" (loaded term, I know) as humans are.
           | 
           | It is clear there is _something_ different between humans and
           | all other animals. And one obvious difference is mastery of
           | fire.
           | 
           | > Maybe the criterion 'spend a lot of effort to create a
           | tool' is the criterion, since having the time to spend on
           | tool making requires someone else to get food for you etc.
           | 
           | Which would probably never have occurred in humans without
           | mastery of fire. I think that mastery of fire is the common
           | precursor of any trait you _could_ point to as the defining
           | feature of civilization.
           | 
           | Now it's possible we will find unambiguous traits of
           | "civilization" among some other species that _hasn 't_
           | mastered fire (whether here on Earth or elsewhere), but until
           | then I do believe that it is a prerequisite.
        
             | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
             | I don't remember exactly where I read it (might have been
             | here), but Margaret Mead is quoted as saying that the
             | earliest sign of civilization, was a long-healed femoral
             | fracture, in an ancient skeleton. In nature, that kind of
             | injury is a death sentence. It meant that the injured
             | person was taken care of, long enough to heal.
             | 
             | Maybe we'll find fossils, with healed "death sentence"
             | injuries.
             | 
             | If anyone had ever read Lovecraft's _The Mountains of
             | Madness,_ he posited a different theory about Cretaceous
             | civilizations.
        
               | troyvit wrote:
               | I'd take this with a grain of Silurian Salt, but there is
               | some fossil evidence that a Tyrannosaurus Rex or two
               | healed from injuries significant enough that surviving
               | them would almost require help from somebody.
               | 
               | The fossil of Barbara[0] "shows a particularly bad break,
               | which goes right through the site of the tendon
               | attachment, so most probably the tendon would have been
               | torn off the bone [...]" If you're a very large two-
               | legged creature a break like that could be a death
               | sentence, but the fossilized break shows signs of
               | healing.
               | 
               | Sue[1] is one of the most famous T. Rex fossils and she
               | shows many healed injuries including broken bones and
               | bacterial infections. It's highly possible that her
               | species is just incredibly tough, but it's also possible
               | that they took care of each other to some degree.
               | 
               | [0] https://www.iflscience.com/meet-barbara-the-pregnant-
               | t-rex-w...
               | 
               | [1] https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1393-sue-
               | postmortem-r...
        
           | tantalor wrote:
           | Fire = automation
        
         | bokoharambe wrote:
         | It's not any particular technical development that separates
         | humans from other animals, but the human relationship to
         | technology as such. Humans only live by way of inserting
         | external objects between themselves and nature, and they do
         | this in an open-ended way. One could also talk about human
         | self-domestication, and agriculture as a self-expanding
         | ecosystem... Fire doesn't really capture the way humans
         | actively modify their own conditions of life.
        
         | SkyBelow wrote:
         | >In particular, I believe the domestication of fire is the
         | dividing line between humans and animals.
         | 
         | Must there be only 1 line? To me, language is another important
         | one as it greatly increases the efficiency that one can
         | communicate information generation to generation and it seems
         | to have an impact on how we think. Children raised without
         | exposure to language seem to suffer developmental issues,
         | though this isn't well studied given the ethical issues
         | involved in such a study.
         | 
         | As to how much communication is needed to count as a language,
         | that is much harder to draw a definite line given that other
         | species do communicate, but we don't consider them to have a
         | language.
        
       | anentropic wrote:
       | haven't read the paper, but how does "They conclude that no ruins
       | of ancient football stadiums, highways or housing projects would
       | survive geological time" square with the existence of fossils?
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _how does "They conclude that no ruins of ancient football
         | stadiums, highways or housing projects would survive geological
         | time" square with the existence of fossils?_
         | 
         | Broadly speaking, fossils are rare and we site our cities on
         | river deltas and such which have bad conditions for them.
        
           | flir wrote:
           | Wait, wait, I thought mud was great for preserving fossils?
           | Eg that Albertan Nodosaur fossil that turned up recently. And
           | if they're working stone, the evidence won't even need a
           | preservation step, because it was never organic - just a
           | mudslide or a storm.
        
             | Jerrrrrrry wrote:
             | 0.00000001% of animals are fossilized.
             | 
             | 99.9999% of animals are extinct.
             | 
             | We had almost nothing, but a lot of it was inferrable.
        
               | flir wrote:
               | I feel like everyone's jumping over the worked stone.
               | 
               | We're assuming a technological civilization here, but
               | without accidental geoengineering or even surviving
               | artifacts. Flaked flint and pottery get _everywhere_.
               | 
               | It just doesn't seem likely to me. The arguments seem
               | very "God of the gaps" in nature.
        
               | Jerrrrrrry wrote:
               | >The arguments seem very "God of the gaps" in nature.
               | 
               | It is an argument from ignorance, but the timescales of
               | pottery (1-20k ya) dwarf the porcelain thrones and
               | nitrous oxide disposables that will be the only remaining
               | artifact of our existence in 10 million years.
               | 
               | Which is still a brief moment in time, compared to the
               | timescales of the epoch proceeding.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _thought mud was great for preserving fossils?_
             | 
             | If rapidly and anoxically deposited. Undersea landslides
             | and volcanoes do that. Dredging operations may, too.
        
               | flir wrote:
               | I really chewed up my original comment. "a mudslide or a
               | storm" was supposed to bind to the bit about organic
               | fossils, not the bit about inorganic artifacts.
               | 
               | I think "rapid" might be a relative term (I'm thinking of
               | the _Mary Rose_ and the _Vasa_ ). When you get to the
               | more durable artifacts that come with a technological
               | civilization we really should be thinking in decades,
               | maybe centuries.
        
         | pvg wrote:
         | I haven't read the paper either but billions upon billions of
         | organisms constantly have some tiny chance of ending up in the
         | conditions where they fossilize and could later be found. A few
         | thousand or million exposed structures over the few-thousand-
         | year lifetime of a civilization is, in comparison, a
         | microscopically smaller chance of preservation. Nature, in
         | contrast, gets effectively infinite shots at this, the fossils
         | record still has gaps that dwarf the lifespan of human
         | civilization as it is.
        
         | causal wrote:
         | It's a numbers game. The stadiums, highways, etc. are very few
         | and are being built during a blink of history, compared to
         | fossils which typically come from animals that were around for
         | tens or even hundreds of millions of years. The sheer number of
         | creatures that lived and died means we've had a few lucky
         | pieces preserved.
         | 
         | Earth's surface isn't very static. On a geological timescale it
         | is constantly moving and churning.
        
         | short_sells_poo wrote:
         | Perhaps it's down to scale? If a single relief of a single
         | building block survives, is that still considered a ruin of a
         | football stadium, or just an imprint of a building block? The
         | Colosseum would certainly not be able to survive for 100
         | million years. If some intelligent beings find a single
         | building block while doing archaeology, they'll likely not be
         | able to recognize it's purpose, if they even recognize the
         | building block for what it is.
         | 
         | The structural integrity of (comparatively) smaller fossils is
         | much more likely to survive for 100s of millions of years. A
         | large building will be eroded by roots, wind, acid rain, etc. A
         | fist sized rock containing the imprint of a trilobite, buried
         | in soil and safe from most elements, will easily survive for
         | 100s of millions of years.
         | 
         | Or perhaps the author meant that the vast majority of our
         | buildings are not built to last. An asphalt highway - if
         | unmaintained - will be unrecognizable in a hundred years. Roman
         | roads survived for a few 1000 years because of their very crude
         | nature: they are just a pile of rocks. But even such structures
         | will fall prey to soil erosion and the relentless assault of
         | nature. Unless said roads see foot traffic, they'd be also
         | quickly overrun by trees and grasses.
        
         | namaria wrote:
         | The fossil record is incredibly fragmented and incomplete.
         | 
         | There are weird structures that we discovered and haven't yet
         | made sense of as well.
         | 
         | The known unknowns in science vast outnumber the known knowns.
        
           | jayrot wrote:
           | > There are weird structures that we discovered and haven't
           | yet made sense of as well.
           | 
           | Do you mean biological structures? Or do you mean
           | physical/geological/natural structures? If the latter, can
           | you give some examples? Specifically of structures we haven't
           | made sense of that could be "intelligent design", as you seem
           | to be suggesting.
        
             | pvg wrote:
             | _Or do you mean physical /geological/natural structures?_
             | 
             | There's a bunch of these, the bulk of which eventually get
             | reasonable explanations.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bimini_Road
             | 
             | I'm surprised there's no Wikipedia list of these.
        
       | henjodottech wrote:
       | Not a mention of Octopolis or Octlantis. Settlements of gloomy
       | octopuses in Jervis Bay, Australia.
        
         | Liquix wrote:
         | to save any interested parties a search: groups of 10-15 octopi
         | have been dubbed 'octlantis' and 'octopolis' after being
         | discovered off the coast of Australia. this is remarkable
         | because octopi (including gloomy octopi) were previously
         | thought to be largely solitary creatures which only interact
         | when mating. octlantis features social hierarchies, disputes,
         | and dens fashioned out of the shells of their prey which the
         | creatures have been recorded evicting each other from.
         | interesting stuff
         | 
         | https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/octopus-city-obser...
        
       | edent wrote:
       | Primates first appeared around 65 million years ago.
       | 
       | The earliest dinosaurs arose over 200 million years ago.
       | 
       | Therefore, it is possible that by about 130 million years ago,
       | the dinosaurs would have reached our level of development. They
       | could have detected the oncoming asteroid, built space ships, and
       | left this planet. All while mammals were barely getting started.
       | 
       | This extremely likely scientific theory is explored in Hibbett,
       | MJ's "Dinosaur Planet"
       | 
       | http://www.mjhibbett.co.uk/dinosaurplanet/nindex.php
        
         | ajdude wrote:
         | This is also pretty heavily explored in Voyager's Distant
         | Origin episode.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distant_Origin
        
         | arethuza wrote:
         | As a wise man once said, "Extraordinary claims require
         | extraordinary evidence"...
        
           | edent wrote:
           | I think this is all the evidence you will need
           | https://mjhibbett.bandcamp.com/track/the-theory-of-a-
           | dinosau...
           | 
           | The Cretaceous-Tertiary Extinction event occurred, as far as
           | we know,
           | 
           | Sixty five point five million years ago
           | 
           | But even the interval of error in that estimated date
           | 
           | Is longer than it took us humans to evolve from apes
           | 
           | And if in that time we mammals managed to conquer space
           | 
           | I believe the Dinosaurs could have done the same
        
         | dannyobrien wrote:
         | And in Leonard Richardson's somewhat silly "Let Us Now Praise
         | Awesome Dinosaurs" http://strangehorizons.com/fiction/let-us-
         | now-praise-awesome...
        
         | dark-star wrote:
         | > extremely likely
         | 
         | I think you misspelled "unlikely"...?
        
           | edent wrote:
           | Er? Do you _really_ think professional scientists would write
           | an epic prog-rock musical about the dinosaur invasion of
           | Norwich if they weren 't extremely certain of their
           | hypothesis?
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | There is also a cave painting somewhere. Frankly an
             | irrefutable set of evidence.
        
         | Borrible wrote:
         | And in Cixin Liu's short story "Devourer" they even come back
         | to earth for a last visit...
         | 
         | Of course, this has a back-story/history, see "Of Ants and
         | Dinosaurs".
        
       | bumby wrote:
       | The author didn't seem to address how cephalopods would be able
       | to develop civilization without demonstrating a similar aptitude
       | for highly coordinated complex social behavior or the
       | transference of ideas (complex language). These both seem
       | necessary for development of a complex civilization as ideas can
       | improve and spread much faster than biological information. It's
       | somewhat ironic, considering the opening salvo was related to an
       | improbable language hypothesis.
        
         | Jerrrrrrry wrote:
         | Memorized inherited tacit knowledge around campfires may had
         | been our own specie's cultural medium, but other ways (with
         | slower bitrate) can easily be entertained.
         | 
         | Vocalizations and their evolution were banned from discussion
         | in the Royal Society because they did not leave a fossil
         | record, so even meta-science was harder back then.
        
         | inkcapmushroom wrote:
         | There is discussion in the article about cephalopod
         | communication, and how they use complex patterning and physical
         | movement to communicate with each other. Is their level of
         | communication and their information transfer speed as high as
         | language? I don't think we can know very well without asking a
         | cephalopod.
         | 
         | Now, that whole section is talking about modern cuttlefish, so
         | I would agree with you regarding the author's hypothetical
         | nautilus civilization.
        
           | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
           | > s their level of communication and their information
           | transfer speed as high as language?
           | 
           | First, spoken language isn't extraordinarily fast. Most of us
           | here have experienced points in our lives where speech has
           | seemed laboriously slow. Second, we have through much of
           | recorded history, relied upon correspondence and the written
           | word, where communicating a few sentences worth of ideas took
           | weeks.
           | 
           | It is not outlandish to think that complicated, colorful
           | shapes on the cuttlefish's back (pictures in the link, if you
           | need a reminder) could convey an entire sentence' worth of
           | information. With a refresh rate of what, 5 seconds? More
           | than enough for human-speech-level speed.
           | 
           | Whatever other challenges they face, communication just isn't
           | one of those.
        
           | bumby wrote:
           | I guess the part that I could've been more explicit about is
           | that I am thinking both complex language and complex language
           | skills being necessary together to push civilization forward.
           | The takeaway I had from the articles communication discussion
           | was that their communication, while unique, is focused
           | directly on mating, and predation (or avoiding predation).
           | Those goals seem to be the norm in the animal kingdom. While
           | I think the argument could be made that the human
           | demonstrations can be to the same ends, they are many more
           | layers of abstraction in between which is what ends up
           | creating complex civilization.
           | 
           | (Eg, status is a form of mating, but we humans have so many
           | tangential levels of displaying status that technology like a
           | Lamborghini can become a mating signal, rather than using
           | pure dominance. The combination of complex social behaviors
           | and communication are necessary before the technology
           | develops)
        
             | inkcapmushroom wrote:
             | I think we can very easily tell when they are communicating
             | about mating or predation. We can read those signals in
             | virtually any animal, there seem to be near-universal
             | signals which we can easily talk about in research. Maybe
             | when they are just having a chat, it might not look like
             | anything to us, and we can only really tell what they're
             | saying when they're "shouting".
             | 
             | Or maybe we are missing lots of nuanced details being
             | conveyed in the message. We think the tiger stripe
             | aggressive pattern just means "back off", but maybe he's
             | really "reading off" a detailed list of his feats of
             | bravery to intimidate his opponent or spitting the
             | cephalopod equivalent of a diss track!
        
         | chubot wrote:
         | I read somewhere that cephalopods are kind of like "individual
         | flashes of genius".
         | 
         | They develop large brains very rapidly, with lots of skills,
         | BUT they don't pass on their skills, in part because they die
         | quickly!
         | 
         | This article mentions that:
         | 
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/02/opinion/sunday/octopuses-...
         | 
         |  _Despite being mollusks, like clams and oysters, these animals
         | have very large brains and exhibit a curious, enigmatic
         | intelligence._
         | 
         |  _I followed them through the sea, and also began reading about
         | them, and one of the first things I learned came as a shock:
         | They have extremely short lives -- just one or two years._
         | 
         | Other discussion - https://tonmo.com/threads/why-dont-octopus-
         | and-other-cephlap...
         | 
         | ---
         | 
         | Humans do seem to have some the longest life spans on the
         | planet, and that's an important adaptation -- "grandmother
         | hypothesis" and all that. I can see that generational knowledge
         | is big deal, even in my own family, and in my coworkers'
         | families.
         | 
         | Or you can look at the family of (ironically) Charles Darwin,
         | with Francis Galton, and so forth
         | 
         | The outliers among primates move the civilization forward. So
         | just having a few people with big brains, who absorb knowledge
         | from their predecessors, is a big deal.
         | 
         | Though of course there could be some cephalopod species that
         | evolved to live 100 years ... and then for some reason they
         | disappeared, or lost that adaptation
        
           | ddalex wrote:
           | > for some reason they disappeared
           | 
           | Octopodi be tasty.
        
           | stevenwoo wrote:
           | Not only short lifespan (some live four years), but all
           | species die after laying eggs or after the eggs hatch so
           | there can only be genetic transfer of information like the
           | social insects, ants and termites. There would need to be
           | some evolutionary leap to have them survive longer than
           | required now or extraordinary genetic engineering ala
           | Children of Time.
        
             | andrewflnr wrote:
             | Not necessarily. You could, in principle, have the
             | information transfer happen via octopuses in their
             | community that aren't laying eggs yet.
        
         | sholladay wrote:
         | Would you count group hunting as "highly complex social
         | behavior"? It's not just a numbers thing, they communicate and
         | coordinate with the group.
         | 
         | https://www.npr.org/2024/09/23/nx-s1-5120912/octopuses-and-f...
         | 
         | Octopuses also build colonies, using coconut shells and other
         | tools.
         | 
         | https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18281-octopuses-use-c...
         | 
         | https://www.science.org/content/article/scientists-discover-...
         | 
         | https://mashable.com/article/octopus-garden-colony-deep-sea-...
         | 
         | They can also solve human made puzzles.
         | 
         | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...
         | 
         | As for knowledge transfer, we know that they can teach other
         | how to perform certain tasks. But beyond that, there seems to
         | be a lack of research. Do they have complex language and can
         | they transfer abstract "ideas"? My guess would be yes, but they
         | communicate through color changes in ways that we have a hard
         | time understanding. It seems likely that birds and whales have
         | complex language, but we haven't cracked the code on that even
         | though their communication is much more like ours. Hopefully we
         | find out some day.
         | 
         | https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-mind-of-an-oc...
         | 
         | https://www.forkingpaths.co/p/the-evolution-of-stupidity-and...
        
           | bumby wrote:
           | My guess is that abstract ideas is an outgrowth of language
           | and also necessary for the development of the complex
           | societies the article is positing. I would also be careful
           | not to conflate complex language (for example, dialects in
           | whales) with the development of complex abstract ideas (for
           | example, mathematics). It seems to me the latter is necessary
           | for the complexity discussed, but unclear if the extent to
           | which it exists in other species. But I agree, hopefully we
           | can learn more someday on the way they are both similar and
           | dissimilar to human cognition.
           | 
           | (I should add that there are some like Stephen Meyer who
           | think certain abstract cognition is more magical and unable
           | to come from basic evolution, but this has a theistic bent)
        
             | dboreham wrote:
             | > but this has a theistic bent
             | 
             | Aka is obviously wrong.
        
               | bumby wrote:
               | I'm not inclined to believe his hypothesis, but
               | counterclaim have not been proven true to my knowledge
               | either. If we haven't proven why humans are uniquely able
               | to communicate complex ideas of past/future for example,
               | I'm much more humble about claiming anything is obvious.
               | The irony is that strong positions in the absence of
               | evidence are making similar errors.
        
         | joe_the_user wrote:
         | One point to note is that humans evolved from apes at a quick
         | pace. I've heard claims that longer life-span, the ability to
         | engage in complex vocalizations, opposable thumbs, upright
         | stance, binocular vision and so-forth are all pretty recent
         | innovation over evolutionary short period, with large brain
         | size turning out to be last addition.
         | 
         | The human package might be not much more complex than "start
         | with a rock-throwing mob and features providing benefits"
         | 
         | So, on the surface, you could have a species that sprinted to
         | all the features required for civilization - and then destroyed
         | itself in a blaze of less-than-glory as we seem on a trajectory
         | to do.
         | 
         | Edit: Note, I should add that I'd actually doubt this scenario
         | could happen only because the evolution of human seems part of
         | the general acceleration of evolution that can be seen
         | throughout geological history.
        
       | andrewflnr wrote:
       | Before bony fish ascended to their current dominance, there were
       | plenty of other fast predators in the sea. If lack of predators
       | is a requirement for cephalopod civilization, the window probably
       | closes much earlier than the Cretaceous.
       | 
       | An alternative, possibly more optimistic (?) hypothesis: the
       | first step of their civilization would be collective defense from
       | large predators. Population concentrations would then make
       | farming very advantageous. Yes, I'm more a scifi writer than
       | biologist.
        
       | openrisk wrote:
       | > the hypothesis postulates that previously a species different
       | from ours had achieved high intelligence and technological
       | civilization on this planet
       | 
       | An interesting special version of this hypothesis is that if a
       | species has achieved truly high intelligence and advanced
       | technology, it may _by design_ not have left any traces. Not
       | because of modesty but because long-term sustainable existence
       | actually required being light on environmental impact.
       | 
       | Changing your environment at planetary scale and breakneck speed
       | is not necessarily the pinnacle of intelligence, certainly not if
       | you have manifestly not yet understood all its intricacies,
       | interdependence etc. A lack of understanding coupled with
       | aggressive random interventions may even affect the very survival
       | of a species.
       | 
       | The downside of the deep-sea tree-huger cephalopod scenario is
       | that it is even harder to falsify...
        
         | sdenton4 wrote:
         | Of course, we do have tree hugging octopus today: Save the
         | Pacific Northwest Tree Octopus!
         | https://zapatopi.net/treeoctopus/ (j/k)
        
         | alexey-salmin wrote:
         | > Changing your environment at planetary scale and breakneck
         | speed is not necessarily the pinnacle of intelligence,
         | certainly not if you have manifestly not yet understood all its
         | intricacies, interdependence etc. A lack of understanding
         | coupled with aggressive random interventions may even affect
         | the very survival of a species.
         | 
         | Well apparently their strategy to ensure survival didn't do too
         | well since we're discussing an extinct civilization here.
        
           | nickpinkston wrote:
           | South Park subtitle:
           | 
           | "This is what de-growthers actually believe."
        
             | crystal_revenge wrote:
             | That's the exact opposite of what de-growthers believe
             | (though my experience has been that most 'de-growthers' are
             | in fact imaginary straw men since I've only met people
             | decrying them, none truly espousing these beliefs as a
             | strategy).
             | 
             | The believes described the parent are basically the defacto
             | beliefs of everyone who believes the climate crisis can be
             | solved through some form of accelerationism.
             | 
             | I don't think there's even a question that the only proven
             | method of reducing emissions and slowing climate change is
             | to leave fossil fuels in the ground (which is by definition
             | de-growth in practice). But there has never been any
             | remotely serious will for actions of this nature.
        
           | digging wrote:
           | A strategy for avoiding one particular death is not a
           | strategy to ensure survival.
           | 
           | There are >1 ways for a civilization to become extinct.
        
         | Byamarro wrote:
         | That's actually a factor that diseases aim for. Mortal diseases
         | don't spread as much as the ones that don't damage the host as
         | much. Because of this, severe diseases sometimes evolve into
         | mild ones.
        
         | colordrops wrote:
         | And taking it even further, maybe they still exist, but have
         | advanced so far they are undetectable to our simple minds and
         | senses, similar to how an ant or bacteria has no idea about our
         | existence. Maybe there are millions of advanced species that we
         | can't detect, considering that there are millions of species we
         | are aware of, and statistically it's unlikely that we would be
         | the most advanced.
        
       | dvh wrote:
       | If maximal compute power is limited by available energy and
       | (most) animals obtain energy by burning oxygen, how much compute
       | power do cephalopods (or other marine animal, excluding cetaceans
       | because they are cheating by breathing air) have available
       | relative to humans (or any other air breathing animal)?
        
         | margalabargala wrote:
         | Let's do the math.
         | 
         | An adult human at rest breathes about 500mL air per breath, at
         | about 12 breaths per minute. The inhaled air is about 21% O2,
         | and the exhaled air is about 16% O2.
         | 
         | The density of air is 1.225 kg/m3, which is 1.225 g/liter. So
         | 5% of a half-liter breath is, ballpark, 0.03 grams oxygen per
         | breath, which at one breath per five seconds is 0.006 grams
         | oxygen per second.
         | 
         | Dissolved oxygen in ocean water is about 0.008 g/liter. Fish
         | are very efficient at extracting this, up to 80%. Squids and
         | octopi are much less efficient, with octopi hanging out more in
         | the 40% range, and squids much lower.
         | 
         | So this means that for every liter of water processed, an
         | example octopus receives 0.003 grams oxygen, and if such an
         | octopus were able to process two liters of water per second
         | across their gills, they would receive as much O2 as a human.
         | 
         | This is not such an incredibly high number that it rules out
         | cephalopod intelligence, especially when considering size
         | differences.
        
       | regnull wrote:
       | I wonder for how long the satellites in the Earth's orbit would
       | stay in orbit and be detectable as artificial entities.
        
         | hollerith wrote:
         | The ones in high orbits would probably remain a very long time.
         | 
         | I wonder if NORAD would have detected it if a satellite
         | remained from the previous civilization.
        
           | askvictor wrote:
           | Like, "in the order of a billion years" very long time?
        
             | hollerith wrote:
             | I don't know.
        
       | somethingsome wrote:
       | >Back then the conference organizers gave away funny, tongue-in-
       | cheek awards (this would be inconceivable by now - humor!), and
       | one of these awards was for the "most interesting hypothesis most
       | likely to be false". I thought this was a great award, honoring
       | science which was daring, and which had just missed the mark by a
       | bit.
       | 
       | I find this so sad, there is less and less place for humor in
       | society to not offend anyone
        
         | monkeydreams wrote:
         | We are in a golden age of comedy. There is literally more
         | comedy in wider and deeper streams available for your
         | consumption than ever before.
        
           | monkeycantype wrote:
           | I just want to show my support for this statement by a fellow
           | monkey
        
       | stonethrowaway wrote:
       | Just leaving this here in case anyone does a search for the name:
       | Graham Hancock.
        
       | dhosek wrote:
       | It's occurred to me on occasion that the deposits of crude oil
       | are the result of ancient garbage dumps filled with plastic which
       | eventually broke down into the hydrocarbons that we're
       | burning/turning back into plastic.
        
         | dboreham wrote:
         | Actually it's the shoe layer.
        
       | mncharity wrote:
       | _The Silurian Hypothesis: Would it be possible to detect an
       | industrial civilization in the geological record?_ (2019)
       | https://arxiv.org/pdf/1804.03748
        
       | crystal_revenge wrote:
       | Surprised the article didn't mention the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal
       | Maximum (PETM) [0] and it's interesting relation to "a species
       | different from ours had achieved high intelligence and
       | technological civilization on this planet."
       | 
       | For those unaware, the PETM was a rapid increasing in global
       | temperature (and CO2 concentrations) around between 60-50 million
       | years ago. This lead to a minor (on a geological time scale,
       | major for those creatures living through it) climate crisis.
       | 
       | The cause for the rapid increase in temperatures at this time is
       | still the subject of deep debate and largely unknown. However how
       | very "out there" hypothesis, not even mentioned on the wikipedia
       | page, is that this _could_ have been when a civilization such as
       | our experience an event more-or-less identical to our own current
       | climate crisis caused by the rapid use of hydro-carbons.
       | 
       | Of course, the biggest challenge with this hypothesis is, as
       | pointed out in the article, a civilization like this would not
       | leave a trace on the geological record. So there's really no
       | reasonable way to have much evidence in favor of this possible
       | explanation.
       | 
       | But since here about this I've been fascinated by the problem of
       | _sending messages_ to the future. Suppose we come to realize that
       | rapid use of hydrocarbons does most certainly lead to the
       | destruction of any civilization foolish enough to tread this
       | path. The most reasonable focus of scientific effort that would
       | be to figure a way to warn the next advanced civilization on this
       | planet in hopes they might not meet the same fate. But presuming
       | that civilization is 50 million years in the future, how could
       | this be done?
       | 
       | 0.
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Therm...
        
         | l3x4ur1n wrote:
         | Send it to space. To multiple places. Next guys should be able
         | to find it sooner or later.
        
       | mncharity wrote:
       | > experimental chemistry and physics would be harder to pull off
       | underwater
       | 
       | Amphibious octopuses?[1] In the widespread and connected shallow
       | seas of a supercontinent world?
       | 
       | [1] BBC Earth https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebeNeQFUMa0
        
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