[HN Gopher] FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced ma...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical
       reasoning in AI
        
       Author : sshroot
       Score  : 166 points
       Date   : 2024-11-09 14:18 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (epochai.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (epochai.org)
        
       | agucova wrote:
       | For some context on why this is important: this benchmark was
       | designed to be extremely challenging for LLMs, with problems
       | requiring several hours or days of work by expert mathematicians.
       | Currently, LLMs solve 2% of problems in the set (which is kept
       | private to prevent contamination).
       | 
       | They even provide a quote from Terence Tao, which helped create
       | the benchmark (alongside other Field medalists and IMO question
       | writers):
       | 
       | > "These are extremely challenging. I think that in the near term
       | basically the only way to solve them, short of having a real
       | domain expert in the area, is by a combination of a semi-expert
       | like a graduate student in a related field, maybe paired with
       | some combination of a modern AI and lots of other algebra
       | packages..."
       | 
       | Surprisingly, prediction markets [1] are putting 62% on AI
       | achieving > 85% performance on the benchmark before 2028.
       | 
       | [1]: https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-an-ai-
       | achieve-8...
        
         | llm_trw wrote:
         | These benchmarks are entirely pointless.
         | 
         | The people making them are specialists attempting to apply
         | their skills to areas unrelated to LLM performance, a bit like
         | a sprinter making a training regimen for a fighter jet.
         | 
         | What matters is the data structures that underlie the problem
         | space - graph traversal. First, finding a path between two
         | nodes; second, identifying the most efficient path; and third,
         | deriving implicit nodes and edges based on a set of rules.
         | 
         | Currently, all LLMs are so limited that they struggle with
         | journeys longer than four edges, even when given a full
         | itinerary of all edges in the graph. Until they can
         | consistently manage a number of steps greater than what is
         | contained in any math proof in the validation data, they aren't
         | genuinely solving these problems; they're merely regurgitating
         | memorized information.
        
           | dr_dshiv wrote:
           | > they're merely regurgitating memorized information
           | 
           | Source?
        
             | exe34 wrote:
             | he just explained it to you.
        
             | firebaze wrote:
             | I'm not sure if it is feasible to provide all relevant
             | sources to someone who doesn't follow a field. It is quite
             | common knowledge that LLMs in their current form have no
             | ability to recurse directly over a prompt, which inherently
             | limits their reasoning ability.
        
               | light_hue_1 wrote:
               | This is just totally false.
               | 
               | That's exactly what countless techniques related to chain
               | of thought do.
        
               | dr_dshiv wrote:
               | It's sometimes like, are these critics using the tools?
               | It's a strange schism at the moment.
        
               | llm_trw wrote:
               | It's my job to build these tools. I'm well aware of their
               | strengths and shortcomings.
        
               | dr_dshiv wrote:
               | Unless you are building one of the frontier models, I'm
               | not sure that your experience gives you insight on those
               | models. Perhaps it just creates needless assumptions.
        
               | llm_trw wrote:
               | The closest explanation to how chain of through works is
               | suppressing the probability of a termination token.
               | 
               | People have found that even letting llms generate
               | gibberish tokens produces better final outputs. Which
               | isn't a surprise when you realise that the only way a llm
               | can do computation is by outputting tokens.
        
               | dr_dshiv wrote:
               | I am not looking for all sources. And I do follow the
               | field. I just don't know the sources that would back the
               | claim they are making. Nor do I understand why limits on
               | recursion means there is no reasoning and only
               | memorization.
        
             | llm_trw wrote:
             | If a model can't inately reason over 5 steps in a simple
             | task but produces a flawless 500 step proof you either have
             | divine intervention or memorisation.
        
               | NitpickLawyer wrote:
               | AlphaGeometry has entered the chat.
               | 
               | Also, AIMOv2 is doing stage 2 of their math challenge,
               | they are now at "national olympics" level of difficulty.
               | They have a new set of questions. Last year's winner
               | (27/50 points) got 2/50 on the new set. In the first 3
               | weeks of the competition the top score is 10/50 on the
               | new set, mostly with Qwen2.5-math. Given that this is a
               | purposefully made new set of problems, and according to
               | the organizers "made to be AI hard", I'd say the
               | regurgitation stuff is getting pretty stale.
               | 
               | Also also, the fact that claude3.5 can start coding in an
               | invented language w/ ~20-30k tokens of "documentation"
               | about the invented language is also some kind of proof
               | that the stochastic parrots are the dismissers in this
               | case.
        
               | llm_trw wrote:
               | I've not tested those models. Feel free to flick me
               | through a couple of k in bitcoins if you'd like me to
               | have a look for you.
        
           | benchmarkist wrote:
           | It will be a useful benchmark to validate claims by people
           | like Sam Altman about having achieved AGI.
        
             | mkl wrote:
             | Most humans can't solve these problems, so it's certainly
             | possible to imagine a legitimate AGI that can't either.
        
               | aurareturn wrote:
               | But humans can solve these problems given enough time and
               | domain knowledge. An LLM would never be able to solve
               | them unless they get smarter. Thats the point.
               | 
               | It's not about whether a random human can solve them.
               | It's whether AI, in general, can. Humans, in general,
               | have proven to be able to solve them already.
        
               | benchmarkist wrote:
               | That's correct. Thanks for clarifying for me because I
               | have gotten tired with the comparison to "99% of humans
               | can't do this" as a counter-argument to AI hype
               | criticism.
        
               | llm_trw wrote:
               | It is very much an open question just what an llm can
               | solve when allowed to generate an indefinite number of
               | intermediate tokens and allowed to sample an arbitrary
               | amount of text to ground itself.
               | 
               | There are currently no tools that let llms do this and no
               | one is building the tools for answering open ended
               | questions.
        
               | mkl wrote:
               | I'm responding to this:
               | 
               | > It will be a useful benchmark to validate claims by
               | people like Sam Altman about having achieved AGI.
               | 
               | I think it is possible to achieve AGI without creating an
               | AGI that is an expert mathematician, and that it is
               | possible to create a system that can do FrontierMath
               | without achieving AGI. I.e. I think failure or success at
               | FrontierMath is orthogonal to achieving AGI (though
               | success at it may be a step on the way). Some humans can
               | do it, and some AGIs could do it, but people and AI
               | systems can have human-level intelligence without being
               | able to do it. OTOH I think it would be hard to claim you
               | have A _S_ I if it can't do FrontierMath.
        
               | aurareturn wrote:
               | I think people just see FrontierMath as a goal post that
               | an AGI needs to hit. The term "artificial general
               | intelligence" implies that it can solve any problem a
               | human can. If it can't solve math problems that an expert
               | human can, then it's not AGI by definition.
               | 
               | I think we have to keep in mind that humans have
               | specialized. Some do law. Some do math. Some are experts
               | at farming. Some are experts at dance history. It's not
               | the average AI vs the average human. It's the best AI vs
               | the best humans at one particular task.
               | 
               | The point with FrontierMath is that we can summon at
               | least one human in the world who can solve each problem.
               | No AI can in 2024
        
               | mkl wrote:
               | Okay, sounds like different definitions.
               | 
               | If you have a single system that can solve any problem
               | any human can, I'd call that ASI, as it's way smarter
               | than any human. It's an extremely high bar, and before we
               | reach it I think we'll have very intelligent systems that
               | can do more than most humans, so it seems strange not to
               | call those AGIs (they would meet the definition of AGI on
               | Wikipedia [1]).
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_inte
               | lligenc...
        
               | aurareturn wrote:
               | >If you have a single system that can solve any problem
               | any human can, I'd call that ASI
               | 
               | I don't think that's the popular definition.
               | 
               | AGI = solve any problem any human can. In this case,
               | we've not reached AGI since it can't solve most
               | FrontierMath problems.
               | 
               | ASI = intelligence far surpasses even the smartest
               | humans.
               | 
               | If the definition of AGI has is that it's more
               | intelligent than the average human, you can argue that we
               | already have AGI today. But no one thinks we have AGI
               | today. Therefore, AGI is not Claude 3.5.
               | 
               | Hence, I think the most acceptable definition for AGI is
               | that it can solve any problem any human can.
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | >I don't think that's the popular definition.
               | 
               | People have all sorts of definitions for AGI. Some are
               | more popular than others but at this point, there is no
               | one true definition. Even Open AI's definition is
               | different from what you have just said. They define it as
               | "highly autonomous systems that outperform humans in most
               | economically valuable tasks"
               | 
               | >AGI = solve any problem any human can.
               | 
               | That's a definition some people use yes but a machine
               | that can solve any problem any human can is by definition
               | super-intelligent and super-capable because there exists
               | no human that can solve any problem any human can.
               | 
               | >If the definition of AGI has is that it's more
               | intelligent than the average human, you can argue that we
               | already have AGI today. But no one thinks we have AGI
               | today.
               | 
               | There are certainly people who do, some of which are
               | pretty well respected in the community, like Norvig.
               | 
               | https://www.noemamag.com/artificial-general-intelligence-
               | is-...
        
               | aurareturn wrote:
               | >That's a definition some people use yes but a machine
               | that can solve any problem any human can is by definition
               | super-intelligent and super-capable because there exists
               | no human that can solve any problem any human can.
               | 
               | We don't need every human in the world to learn complex
               | topology math like Terence Tao. Some need to be farmers.
               | Some need to be engineers. Some need to be kindergarten
               | teachers. When we need someone to solve those problems,
               | we can call Terence Tao.
               | 
               | When AI needs to solve those problems, it can't do it
               | without humans in 2024. Period.
               | 
               | That's the whole point of this discussion.
               | 
               | The definition of ASI historically is that it's an
               | intelligence that far surpasses humans - not at the level
               | of the best humans.
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | >We don't need every human in the world to learn complex
               | topology math like Terence Tao. Some need to be farmers.
               | Some need to be engineers. Some need to be kindergarten
               | teachers.
               | 
               | It doesn't have much to do with need. Not every human can
               | be as capable regardless of how much need or time you
               | allocate for them to do so. Then some humans are
               | shoulders above peers in one field but come a bit short
               | in another closely related one they've sunk a lot of time
               | into.
               | 
               | Like i said, arguing about a one true definition is
               | pointless. It doesn't exist.
               | 
               | >The definition of ASI historically is that it's an
               | intelligence that far surpasses humans - not at the level
               | of the best humans.
               | 
               | A Machine that is expert level in every single field
               | would likely far surpass the output of any human very
               | quickly. Yes, there might exist intelligences that are
               | significantly more 'super' but that is irrelevant.
               | Competence, like generality is a spectrum. You can have
               | two super-human intelligences with a competence gap.
        
               | mewpmewp2 wrote:
               | The reason for the AGI definition is to indicate a point
               | where no human can provide more value than the AGI can.
               | AGI should be able to replace all work efforts on its
               | own, as long as it can scale.
               | 
               | ASI is when it is able to develop a much better version
               | of itself to then iteratively go past all of that.
        
               | mewpmewp2 wrote:
               | AGI should be able to do anything the best humans can do.
               | ASI is when it does everything better than the best
               | humans.
        
               | pnut wrote:
               | Those thresholds look the same to me, personally.
               | 
               | An AI that can be onboarded to a random white collar job,
               | and be interchangeably integrated into organisations,
               | surely is AGI for all practical purposes, without
               | eliminating the value of 100% of human experts.
        
             | campers wrote:
             | If an AI achieved 100% in this benchmark it would indicate
             | super-intelligence in the field of mathematics. But
             | depending on what else it could do it may fall short on
             | general intelligence across all domains.
        
           | nopinsight wrote:
           | > Currently, all LLMs are so limited that they struggle with
           | journeys longer than four edges, even when given a full
           | itinerary of all edges in the graph.
           | 
           | This is probably not the case for LLMs in the o1 series and
           | possibly Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Have you tested them on this
           | claim?
        
             | llm_trw wrote:
             | Yes, they also fail. I've found the original gpt4 to be the
             | most consistent. One of these days I'll spend the couple of
             | thousands needed to benchmark all the top models and see
             | how they actually perform on a task which can't be gamed.
        
               | nopinsight wrote:
               | What kinds of problems in what domains did you test o1
               | models with?
               | 
               | I found that they are good at logic and math problems but
               | still hallucinate. I didn't try to stretch test them with
               | hard problems though.
        
               | llm_trw wrote:
               | Finding a path between two vertices when given an
               | itinerary of all the edges in a general graph, exactly
               | what I said in the OP.
        
               | mkl wrote:
               | Did you try asking them to write a program to do it?
        
               | andrepd wrote:
               | GP is trying to test the ability of LLMs to perform
               | mathematical tasks, not their ability to store
               | geeks4geeks pages.
        
               | llm_trw wrote:
               | Not sure why you're being downvoted that is exactly why
               | I'm using that simple problem to benchmark LLMs. If an
               | LLM can't figure out how to traverse a graph in its
               | working memory then it has no hope of figuring out how to
               | structure a proof.
               | 
               | Under natural deduction all proofs are sub trees of the
               | graph which is induced by the inference rules from the
               | premise. Right now LLMs can't even do a linear proof if
               | it gets too long when given all the induced vertices.
        
           | youoy wrote:
           | Not to mention that math proofs are more than graph
           | trasversals... (Although maybe simple math problems are not)
           | There is the problem of extracting the semantics of math
           | formalisms. This is easier in day to day language, I don't
           | know to what extent LLMs can also extract the semantics and
           | relations of different mathematical abstractions.
        
         | sebzim4500 wrote:
         | >Surprisingly, prediction markets [1] are putting 62% on AI
         | achieving > 85% performance on the benchmark before 2028.
         | 
         | Or they know the ancient technique of training on the test set.
         | I know most of the questions are kept secret, but they are
         | being regularly sent over the API to every LLM provider.
        
           | tux3 wrote:
           | Although the answer isn't sent, so it would have to be a very
           | deliberate effort to fish those out of the API chatter and
           | find the right domain expert with 4-10 hours to spend on
           | cracking it
           | 
           | Just letting the AI train on its own wrong output wouldn't
           | help. The benchmark already gives them lots of time for trial
           | and error.
        
             | youoy wrote:
             | Why do people still insist that this is unlikely? Like
             | assuming that the company that payed 15M for chat.com does
             | not have some spare change to pay some graduate
             | students/postdocs to solve some math problems. The
             | publicity of solving such benchmark would definitely raise
             | the valuation so it would 100% be worth it for them...
        
               | llm_trw wrote:
               | Any benchmark which isn't dynamically generated is
               | useless for that very reason.
        
               | rl3 wrote:
               | Simple: I highly doubt they're willing to risk a scandal
               | that would further tarnish their brand. It's still
               | reeling from last year's drama, in addition to a spate of
               | high-profile departures this year. Not to mention a few
               | articles with insider sources that aren't exactly
               | flattering.
        
               | aiono wrote:
               | I doubt it would be seen as scandal. They can simply
               | generate training data for these questions just like how
               | they generate for other problems. Only difference is
               | probably pay rate is much higher for this kind training
               | data than most other areas.
        
               | EGreg wrote:
               | Parallel construction
               | 
               | Doesnt cause too much scandal lol
        
               | IAmGraydon wrote:
               | You're not thinking about the other side of the equation.
               | If they win (becoming the first to excel at the
               | benchmark), they potentially make billions. If they lose,
               | they'll be relegated to the dustbin of LLM history. Since
               | there is an existential threat to the brand, there is
               | almost nothing that isn't worth risking to win. Risking a
               | scandal to avoid irrelevance is an easy asymmetrical bet.
               | Of course they would take the risk.
        
               | rl3 wrote:
               | Okay, let's assume what you say ends up being true. They
               | effectively cheat, then raise some large fundraising
               | round predicated on those results.
               | 
               | Two months later there's a bombshell expose detailing
               | insider reports of how they cheated the test by cooking
               | their training data using an army of PhDs to hand-solve.
               | Shame.
               | 
               | At a minimum investor confidence goes down the drain, if
               | it doesn't trigger lawsuits from their investors. Then
               | you're looking at maybe another CEO ouster fiasco with a
               | crisis of faith across their workforce. That workforce
               | might be loyal now, but that's because their RSUs are
               | worth something and not tainted by fraud allegations.
               | 
               | If you're right, I suppose it really depends on how well
               | they could hide it via layers of indirection and
               | compartmentalization, and how hard they could spin it. I
               | don't really have high hopes for that given the number of
               | folks there talking to the press lately.
        
           | andrepd wrote:
           | Of course lol. How come e.g. o1 scores so high on these
           | reasoning and math and IMO benchmarks and then fails every
           | simple question I ask of it? The answer is training on the
           | test set.
        
         | light_hue_1 wrote:
         | If I was going to bet, I would bet yes, they will reach above
         | 85% performance.
         | 
         | The problem with all benchmarks, one that we just don't how to
         | solve, is leakage. Systematically, LLMs are much better at
         | benchmarks created before they were trained than after. There
         | are countless papers that show significant leakage between
         | training and test sets for models.
         | 
         | This is in part why so many LLMs are so strong according to
         | benchmarks, particularly older popular benchmarks, but then
         | prove to be so weak in practice when you try them out.
         | 
         | In addition to leakage, people also over-tune their LLMs to
         | specific datasets. They also go out and collect more data that
         | looks like the dataset they want to perform well on.
         | 
         | There's a lot of behind the scenes talk about unethical teams
         | that collect data which doesn't technically overlap test sets,
         | but is extremely close. You can detect this if you look at the
         | pattern of errors these models make. But no one wants to go out
         | and accuse specific teams, at least not for now.
        
           | nerdponx wrote:
           | Could you run the benchmark by bootstrapping (average of
           | repeated subsampling), instead of a straight-across
           | performance score, and regain some leakage resistance that
           | way? As well as a better simulation of "out of sample" data,
           | at least for a little while.
        
           | agucova wrote:
           | This benchmark's questions and answers will be kept fully
           | private, and the benchmark will only be run by Epoch. Short
           | of the companies fishing out the questions from API logs
           | (which seems quite unlikely), this shouldn't be a problem.
        
             | benchmarkist wrote:
             | I looked at the sample questions and even if they get the
             | questions there is no way they will figure out the answers
             | without making significant breakthroughs in understanding
             | mathematics and logic.
        
             | mewpmewp2 wrote:
             | Ideally they would have batches of those exercises, where
             | the only use the next batch when someone has solved a
             | suspicious amount of those exercises. If it performs much
             | worse on the next batch, that is a tell of leakage.
        
             | BeefWellington wrote:
             | > answers will be kept fully private
             | 
             | > Short of the companies fishing out the questions from API
             | logs (which seems quite unlikely)
             | 
             | They all pretty clearly state[1] versions of "We use your
             | queries (removing personal data) to improve the models" so
             | I'm not sure why that's unlikely.
             | 
             | https://help.openai.com/en/articles/5722486-how-your-data-
             | is...
        
         | equestria wrote:
         | Market size matters. There's a whopping total of 71 bidders on
         | that.
        
         | TeMPOraL wrote:
         | > _Surprisingly, prediction markets [1] are putting 62% on AI
         | achieving > 85% performance on the benchmark before 2028._
         | 
         | Why surprisingly?
         | 
         | 2028 is twice as long as capable LLMs existed to date. By
         | "capable" here I mean capable enough to even remotely consider
         | the idea of LLMs solving such tasks in the first place.
         | ChatGPT/GPT-3.5 _isn 't even 2 years old_!
         | 
         | 4 years is a lot of time. It's kind of silly to assume LLM
         | capabilities have already bottomed out.
        
           | ekianjo wrote:
           | Sure but it is also reasonable to consider that the pace of
           | progress is not always exponential or even linear at best.
           | Diminishing returns are a thing and we already know that a
           | 405b model is not 5 times better than a 70b model.
        
             | TeMPOraL wrote:
             | Yes, but!
             | 
             | Exponential pace of progress isn't usually just one thing;
             | if you zoom in, any particular thing may plateau, but its
             | impact compounds in enabling growth of successors,
             | variations, and related inventions. Nor is it a smooth
             | curve, if you look closely. I feel statements like "a 405b
             | model is not 5 times better than a 70b model" are zooming
             | in on a specific class of models so much you can see the
             | pixels _of the pixel grid_. There 's plenty of open and
             | promising research in tweaking the current architecture in
             | training or inference (see e.g. other thread from
             | yesterday[0]), on top of changes to architecture,
             | methodology, methods of controlling or running inference on
             | exiting models by lobotomizing them or grafting networks to
             | networks, etc. The field is burning hot right now, we're
             | counting space between incremental improvements and
             | interesting research directions _in weeks_. The overall
             | exponent of  "language models" power may just well continue
             | when you zoom out a little bit further.
             | 
             | --
             | 
             | [0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42093112
        
             | mewpmewp2 wrote:
             | How do you determine the multiplier. Because e.g. there are
             | many problems that GPT4 can solve while GPT3.5 can't. In
             | this case it is infinitely better.
        
           | slashdave wrote:
           | Except LLM capabilities have already peaked. Scaling has
           | rapidly diminishing returns.
        
             | Workaccount2 wrote:
             | I have yet to see any published evidence of that.
        
               | olivermuty wrote:
               | Since you go that route, do you have published evidence
               | that shows they HAVENT entered the top of the S-curve?
        
               | edanm wrote:
               | What kind of evidence could convince you?
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | What reason you have to believe we're anywhere close to
               | the middle of the S-curve? S-curve may be only
               | sustainable shape in nature _in the limit_ , it doesn't
               | mean any exponent you see someone claims is already past
               | the inflection point.
        
               | macrolime wrote:
               | For one, thinking LLMs have plateaued is essentially
               | assuming that video can't teach AI anything. It's like
               | saying a person locked into a room his whole life with
               | only books to read would be as good at reasoning as
               | someone's who's been out in the world.
        
               | mewpmewp2 wrote:
               | Why are you thinking in binary. It is not clear at all to
               | me that the progress is stagnating, and in fact I am
               | still impressed by the progress. But I couldn't tell
               | whether there is going to come a wall or not. There is no
               | clear reason why there should be some sort of standard or
               | historical curve for this progress.
        
           | ak_111 wrote:
           | I think because if you end up having an AI that is as capable
           | as the graduate students Tao is used to dealing with (so
           | basically potential field medalists) then you are basically
           | betting that 85% chance something _like_ AGI (at least in
           | consequence) will be here in 3 years. It is possible, but 85%
           | chance?
        
             | mewpmewp2 wrote:
             | It would also require ability to easily handle large amount
             | of complex information and dependencies such as massive
             | codebases etc and then also be able to operate physically
             | like humans do. By controlling a robot of some sort.
             | 
             | Being able to solve self contained exercise can be
             | obviously very challenging, but there are other different
             | types of skills that might or might not be related and have
             | to be solved as well.
        
             | sigmoid10 wrote:
             | >then you are basically betting that 85% chance something
             | like AGI
             | 
             | Not really. It would just need to do more steps in a
             | sequence that current models do. And that number has been
             | going up consistently. So it would be just another narrow
             | AI expert system. It is very likely that it will be solved,
             | but it is very unlikely that it will be generally capable
             | in the sense most researchers understand AGI today.
        
               | benchmarkist wrote:
               | I am willing to bet it won't be solved by 2028 and the
               | betting market is overestimating AI capabilities and
               | progress on abstract reasoning. No current AI on the
               | market can consistently synthesize code according to a
               | logical specification and that is almost certainly a
               | requirement for solving this benchmark.
        
           | andrepd wrote:
           | People really love pointing at the first part of a logistic
           | curve and go "behold! an exponential".
        
             | bee_rider wrote:
             | I think (to give them the most generous read) they are just
             | betting the halfway is still pretty far ahead. It is a
             | different bet but IMO not an inherently ridiculous one like
             | just misidentifying the shape of the thing; everything is a
             | logistic curve, right? At least, everything that doesn't
             | blow up to infinity.
        
         | ak_111 wrote:
         | Would be interesting to know which model solved the 2% and what
         | is the nature of the problems it solved.
        
       | benchmarkist wrote:
       | Very cool. It'll be nice to have a benchmark that can be used to
       | validate abstract reasoning capabilities because the hype is
       | really starting to get out of hand.
        
         | sebzim4500 wrote:
         | I mean, this benchmark is really hard.
         | 
         | I don't think it's a requirement that a system claiming to be
         | AGI should be able to solve these problems, 99.99% of humans
         | can't either.
        
           | benchmarkist wrote:
           | An AGI is often claimed to be a general purpose problem
           | solver and these are exactly the types of problems that a
           | general purpose problem solver would be able to solve if
           | given access to a mathematical library. All existing LLMs
           | have been trained on abstract mathematics and logic but it is
           | obvious that they are incapable of abstract logical
           | reasoning, e.g. solving sudoku puzzles.
        
             | skinner_ wrote:
             | Here is my prediction, FWIW: the hard part of the problem
             | has already been solved, in the following technical sense:
             | there is a few 1000 lines program that has not been
             | invented yet, but it will be invented soon, that loads a
             | current LLM model, runs fast on current hardware, and you
             | will deem it to be an AGI. In other words, the conditional
             | Kolmogorov complexity of undisputable AGI given the Llama
             | weights is only a few 1000 bytes. We are at the pre-
             | AlphaGo, post Clark-Storkey stage of reasoning. That's my
             | guess, anyway.
        
               | sebzim4500 wrote:
               | I think you are likely right but coming up with that
               | final inference strategy is still "the hard part" IMO.
               | Not in terms of computation, but in terms of algorith
               | development.
        
             | sebzim4500 wrote:
             | 99.9% of the population would not be able to solve these
             | problems given a year and access to every piece of
             | mathematical literature ever written (except the solutions
             | to these problems of course).
             | 
             | Saying that you need to solve these to be considered AGI is
             | ridiculously strict.
        
         | nerdponx wrote:
         | I wonder if the best benchmark is a Prolog program that
         | generates tests of logical reasoning. You could have a
         | functionally infinite stream of test cases!
        
           | benchmarkist wrote:
           | You could but most LLMs can't solve sudoku puzzles even
           | though the training corpus already contains books on logic,
           | constraint propagation, and state space exploration with
           | backtracking.
        
             | Davidzheng wrote:
             | the LLM just doesn't have enough compute I think probably
             | step by step it could do it. anyways most leading LLMs can
             | write a backtracking search program to do it and I think
             | +tool use should be counted
        
           | aithrowawaycomm wrote:
           | Part of the magic of mathematical reasoning in humans is our
           | ability to sidestep incompleteness theorems or undecidability
           | headaches by simply changing the rules as befits the problem
           | at hand: using a logical tool to solve a math problem seems
           | largely formalizable and testable with Prolog/Lean/etc, but
           | _selecting_ or _designing_ such a tool - e.g. choosing good
           | definitions and axioms - is much more mysterious.
           | 
           | Put a bit more poetically: a Prolog benchmark can adequately
           | test an LLM's ability to create proofs in Euclidean geometry.
           | But it will never test an LLM's ability to reason whether a
           | given axiomatization of geometry is actually a reasonable
           | abstraction of physical space. And if our LLMs can do novel
           | Euclidean proofs but are not able to meta-mathematically
           | reason about novel axioms, then they aren't really using
           | intelligence. Formal logical puzzles are only a small subset
           | of logical reasoning.
           | 
           | Likewise, when Euclidean proofs were a fun pastime among
           | European upper-classes, the real work was being done by
           | mathematicians who built new tools for projective and
           | analytic geometry. In some sense our LLM benchmarks are
           | focusing on the pastime and not the work. But in another
           | sense LLMs are focusing on the tricksy and annoying sides of
           | actually proving things, leaving humans free to think about
           | deeper problems. So I'm not skeptical of LLMs' _utility_ in
           | mathematical research, but rather the overinflated (and
           | investor-focused) claims that this stuff is a viable path to
           | AGI.
        
       | westurner wrote:
       | ScholarlyArticle: "FrontierMath: A Benchmark for Evaluating
       | Advanced Mathematical Reasoning in AI" (2024)
       | https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.04872 ..
       | https://epochai.org/frontiermath/the-benchmark :
       | 
       | > [Not even 2%]
       | 
       | > Abstract: _We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds
       | of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems
       | crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians. The questions cover
       | most major branches of modern mathematics -- from computationally
       | intensive problems in number theory and real analysis to abstract
       | questions in algebraic geometry and category theory. Solving a
       | typical problem requires multiple hours of effort from a
       | researcher in the relevant branch of mathematics, and for the
       | upper end questions, multiple days. FrontierMath uses new,
       | unpublished problems and automated verification to reliably
       | evaluate models while minimizing risk of data contamination.
       | Current state-of-the-art AI models solve under 2% of problems,
       | revealing a vast gap between AI capabilities and the prowess of
       | the mathematical community. As AI systems advance toward expert-
       | level mathematical abilities, FrontierMath offers a rigorous
       | testbed that quantifies their progress._
        
         | westurner wrote:
         | Additional AI math benchmarks:
         | 
         | - "TheoremQA: A Theorem-driven [STEM] Question Answering
         | dataset" (2023) https://github.com/TIGER-AI-Lab/TheoremQA
        
       | bravura wrote:
       | Regarding keeping the test set private to avoid contamination,
       | the comments about leakage are spot on. The real test set should
       | always be _the future_.
       | 
       | We should evaluate LLMs on text from beyond their knowledge
       | cutoff date, by computing their per-byte perplexity or per-byte
       | compression ratio. There's a deep theoretical connection between
       | compression and learning.
       | 
       | The intuition here is that being able to predict the future of
       | science (or any topic, really) is indicative of true
       | understanding. Slightly more formally: When ICLR 2025 announces
       | and publishes the accepted papers, Yoshua Bengio is less
       | surprised/perplexed by what's new than a fresh PhD student. And
       | Terence Tao is less surprised/perplexed by what will be proven in
       | math in the next 10 years than a graduate student in a related
       | field.
       | 
       | This work has it right:
       | https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html//2402.00861
        
         | 3abiton wrote:
         | Interesting take sounds like MDL (Minimum description length)
         | for LLMs!
        
       | Davidzheng wrote:
       | Not very impressed by the problems they displayed but I guess
       | there should be some good problems in the set given the comments
       | (not in the sense that I find them super easy but they seems
       | random and not super well-posed, and extremely artificial
       | problems--in the sense that they seem to not be of particular
       | mathematical interest[or at least the mathematical content of the
       | problem is being deliberately hidden for testing purposes] but
       | constructed according to some weird criteria). Would be happy to
       | hear an elaboration on the comments by the well-known
       | mathematicians
        
         | vessenes wrote:
         | Hmm. I'm a hard disagree. The problems they show have a number
         | of really nice properties for LLM assessment: They require
         | broad, often integrated knowledge of diverse areas of
         | mathematics, the answers reduce to a number, often a very large
         | number, and thus extremely difficult to guess, and they require
         | a significant amount of symbolic parsing and (I would say)
         | reasoning skills. If we think about what makes a quality
         | mathematician, I'd propose it's the ability to come at a
         | problem both from _the top_ --- conceptually -- and from _the
         | bottom_ -- applying various tools and transformations -- with a
         | sort of direction in mind that gets to a result.
         | 
         | I'd say these problems _strongly_ encourage that sort of
         | behavior.
         | 
         | I'm also someone who thinks building in abilities like this to
         | LLMs would broadly benefit the LLMs and the world, because I
         | think this stuff generalizes. But, even if not, It would be
         | hard to say that an LLM that could test 80% on this benchmark
         | would be not useful to a research mathematician. Terence Tao's
         | dream is something like this that can hook up to LEAN, leaving
         | research mathematicians as editors, advisors, and occasionally
         | working on the really hard parts while the rest is automated
         | and provably correct. There's no doubt in my mind that a high
         | scoring LLM for this benchmark would be helpful in that
         | concept.
        
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