[HN Gopher] Starship's Sixth Flight Test
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Starship's Sixth Flight Test
        
       Author : hnburnsy
       Score  : 265 points
       Date   : 2024-11-06 18:49 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.spacex.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.spacex.com)
        
       | lupusreal wrote:
       | Note that there _will not be_ an official livestream on Youtube.
       | Every time there are some people who fall for scammers pretending
       | to be one and end up listening to an AI impersonation of Elon
       | Musk try to sell them cryptocoins, missing the real launch.
       | 
       | If you must watch on youtube, NSF or Everyday Astronaut typically
       | have good (unofficial) livestreams.
        
         | djd3 wrote:
         | The Everyday Astronaut was _ahead_ of the SpaceX curated one
         | for Flight 5. It had the weird effect of showing the outcome
         | before the sound of the cheering crowd going crazy when the
         | booster got caught by the chopsticks (which was also audible in
         | the same stream).
        
           | gridspy wrote:
           | Each streamer adds a delay to their stream. This means that
           | any stream forwarded to you by another streamer is going to
           | be delayed.
           | 
           | The delay was between SpaceX recording and uploading an event
           | and Everyday astronaut decoding it at their mixing desk.
           | Their own feeds from their cameras and microphones had less
           | delay than the SpaceX stream did. Everyday astronaut then had
           | another delay between when they encoded this result and you
           | saw it.
           | 
           | If you had opened up the SpaceX stream directly you would
           | have found it was ahead of the stream shown inside Everyday
           | Astronaut.
           | 
           | BTW I was also watching EA's stream.
        
             | wmf wrote:
             | EA and NSF have their own cameras so they aren't just
             | republishing SpaceX's Twitter stream. But things definitely
             | get out of sync when there are multiple layers of
             | streaming.
        
               | abulman wrote:
               | Some of the views their cameras get are fantastic - and
               | the tracking on the last flight test would quite possibly
               | make NASA envious. Cameras on the beach and also just
               | next to StarHopper are in harms way too, they've lost a
               | couple of them. I'm not sure what the cost of repair was
               | after a chunk of concrete from what used to be the pad
               | took out the back of a car!
        
             | djd3 wrote:
             | Thank you for the clarification. It's delays all the way
             | down. :)
             | 
             | I was cycling between the "official" stream and EA to try
             | and catch the most-live and I found EA was a couple seconds
             | ahead.
        
         | hayd wrote:
         | It's ironic given pre-acquisition under every Elon Musk tweet
         | the top replies were always crypto scammers. Hopefully this
         | time YouTube fix the impersonation stream but it was up for a
         | long time during/after the last launch.
        
           | tiahura wrote:
           | I assumed a large portion of YouTube/ Google management had
           | been in a plane crash as that seemed the only plausible
           | explanation for it to stay up as long and have as many
           | viewers as it did. It really was stunning.
        
             | lysace wrote:
             | Nah, they are just ignoring the damaging effects on
             | individuals and cashing in the ad money.
        
         | tslocum wrote:
         | Considering how long those videos have been allowed on YouTube,
         | you have to wonder...
         | 
         | https://mashable.com/article/fake-elon-musk-crypto-scam-yout...
        
           | lysace wrote:
           | > Nearly four years ago, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak
           | actually sued YouTube over Bitcoin scam livestreams that were
           | using his likeness. So, this has clearly been going on for
           | quite a while now. And, unfortunately, it looks like these
           | fake YouTube livestream schemes are going to continue on, at
           | least for the foreseeable future.
           | 
           | I recently reported a bunch of the SpaceX ones that were
           | running for long time. Nothing happened. I think
           | Google/Alphabet is just happy with the extra ad views.
           | 
           | This aspect needs regulation.
        
             | abulman wrote:
             | I'll often spend a little time while watching the flight-
             | tests (usually with Tim Dodd / EverydayAstronaut) just
             | doing a search on YouTube for 'spacex live' and usually
             | report 15-20 each time. They are very easy to spot when
             | you've seen a few of them. I'll usually get a report of a
             | few being shut down later in the day, and more over the
             | next couple of days.
             | 
             | But, yes, they should be easy for YT to detect & block
             | automatically - it's frustrating they (and other scams) get
             | to stay online so long.
        
               | lysace wrote:
               | Perhaps your account has more Youtube XP.
               | 
               | > But, yes, they should be easy for YT to detect & block
               | automatically - it's frustrating they (and other scams)
               | get to stay online so long.
               | 
               | It's the Google way. It's impossible until it suddenly
               | isn't.
               | 
               | Break up this monster company and regulate the resulting
               | companies until they behave.
        
             | mnau wrote:
             | How about RICO act? Youtube is clearly and knowingly
             | profiting from a criminal activity.
        
         | schappim wrote:
         | Suddenly, all those crypto-scam videos seem plausible now that
         | Elon Musk pledged to give away $1 million daily to individuals
         | who sign his political action committee's petition supporting
         | the First and Second Amendments.
        
       | anticrymactic wrote:
       | Last times catch was incredible, anything groundbreaking being
       | attempted this time?
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | They're working off the same license they used for test 5, so
         | they basically have to exactly the same thing they did for test
         | 5. They did manage to add this:
         | 
         | "An additional objective for this flight will be attempting an
         | in-space burn using a single Raptor engine, further
         | demonstrating the capabilities required to conduct a ship
         | deorbit burn prior to orbital missions."
        
           | modeless wrote:
           | I think that's the last thing they need to do before they can
           | actually launch satellites. I'm surprised there was no
           | attempt on the last launch. Glad to see it this time. The
           | improved Starlink constellation that Starship will enable is
           | going to be awesome.
        
             | cryptonector wrote:
             | That and flap sturdiness, if they want to be able to re-
             | enter over land so they can catch the ship.
        
               | modeless wrote:
               | It's not required for launching satellites. But yeah,
               | they need to figure out the heat shield for the flap
               | hinges before they can recover the ship.
        
             | mnau wrote:
             | I think they will want to deal with heatshield first. As of
             | now, it hasn't survived deorbiting.
             | 
             | SpaceX can launch satellites using Falcon9 and do it
             | routinely. Starship needs to be developed and reach
             | milestones, so they can get paid by NASA. Having a payload
             | is a complication (unless it's a fun payload, remember the
             | roadster car :D)
        
           | cryptonector wrote:
           | And they need to demo that the flaps hold up through re-entry
           | with nominal, minimal damage, otherwise a permit for a plan
           | involving re-entry over land (which is needed to catch the
           | ship) would obviously not issue.
        
             | bryanlarsen wrote:
             | They've addressed that in Block 2. Test 6 still flies block
             | 1, so we won't see any substantive improvements on that
             | until test 7.
        
           | scotty79 wrote:
           | That's cool PR move. If they managed to light one then it's
           | great success. If they don't people will think they just got
           | unlucky. But if they tried to light all and only one would
           | work or none, or one would work but some other blew up whole
           | rocket it would look terrible. It's probably that last
           | eventuality is something they want to prevent by trying to
           | light just one.
        
         | sebzim4500 wrote:
         | It's not groundbreaking but it's important. They are
         | demonstrating in orbit relight capability of the raptor
         | engines. This is an absolute requirement before they can put it
         | fully into orbit because losing control of a Starship in low
         | earth orbit would be catastrophic.
        
           | lysace wrote:
           | > because losing control of a Starship in low earth orbit
           | would be catastrophic
           | 
           | Why? Remote detonation wouldn't work in that case?
        
             | perihelions wrote:
             | Remote termination is something they can do in the early
             | boost phase, when there is a defined hazard zone over a
             | depopulated patch of ocean. It doesn't cause the rocket to
             | disappear; its effect is to disable the engines, end
             | uncontrolled acceleration, and break the booster apart into
             | small pieces--all of which will still fall to the ground
             | (ocean) as debris.
             | 
             | If you did this to a Starship in orbit, you'd likely have
             | large chunks of steel reentering and reaching the ground
             | intact.
        
               | lysace wrote:
               | If I understand you correctly: So you'd have to do it
               | over unpopulated/depopulated areas, which is impossible
               | to guarantee when you are zooming around the globe at
               | very high speeds. Thanks for explaining.
        
             | jpk wrote:
             | If the object is already in orbit, the debris from an FTS
             | activation would also mostly be left in orbit, which isn't
             | great. They really need to demonstrate the ability to de-
             | orbit the vehicle before putting into orbit.
        
             | valine wrote:
             | Detonating something in orbit could trigger Kessler's
             | Syndrome.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Detonating something in orbit could trigger Kessler 's
               | Syndrome_
               | 
               | Unlikely in general, no at LEO and definitely not at the
               | suborbital velocities IFT-6 contemplates.
        
               | valine wrote:
               | LEO is the exact place you need to be careful. Higher
               | orbits have more space and have fewer satellites overall
               | so it's less of a concern.
               | 
               | Obviously not a problem for IFT6 since it's sub-orbital,
               | but the original comment was about why we need a deorbit
               | burn rather than just triggering the flight abort system.
        
               | pantalaimon wrote:
               | but lower orbits also decay quickly.
               | 
               | If you have debris in geostationary orbit, it will stay
               | there basically forever whereas in low earth orbit it
               | will burn up within a few years at worst.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _LEO is the exact place you need to be careful. Higher
               | orbits have more space and have fewer satellites overall
               | so it 's less of a concern_
               | 
               | No. In LEO orbits degrade in single-digit years at most.
               | There is no known solution for rendering an orbit in LEO
               | inaccessible with a Kessler cascade--the best you can do
               | is blind an area with repeated ASAT fire.
               | 
               | In higher orbits debris last longer. That makes cascades
               | possible, though again it only denies a limited area and
               | requires almost active effort.
        
               | gridspy wrote:
               | At least in LEO you need to keep expending DeltaV to keep
               | stuff in orbit. Trace atmosphere slows everything down
               | and would eventually clean LEO at 500km of relevant junk
               | in about 25 years depending on altitude.
               | 
               | https://space.stackexchange.com/a/55995
        
               | kibwen wrote:
               | Even at suborbital velocities, putting debris into the
               | path of an existing satellite that is traveling at
               | orbital velocity is enough to trigger a cascade.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | Collision, yes, cascade no.
        
               | kibwen wrote:
               | No. An object in orbit colliding with anything threatens
               | to create debris in orbit. Debris in orbit collides with
               | other objects in orbit, creating debris in orbit. That's
               | a cascade.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | No. Orbital mechanically, no.
               | 
               | > _Debris in orbit collides with other objects in orbit,
               | creating debris in orbit. That 's a cascade_
               | 
               | For the same reason not every nucleus that fractures on
               | neutron bombardment sustains chain reactions not every
               | orbital configuration supports a Kessler cascade. In LEO,
               | it's virtually impossible: you get a nuisance, not SOL.
               | 
               | Note that Kessler posited his syndrome before we could
               | computationally verify it. We can now. It's not a real
               | threat in the long term, and is more of an insurance
               | question than existential issue for spaceflight in the
               | medium term. It's pertinent in the very short term,
               | militarily, which is partly how we know it's very
               | difficult to trigger across even limited orbits.
        
             | inglor_cz wrote:
             | It would work, all too well. Especially if the speed was
             | just slightly suborbital. Rain of steel over a random spot
             | (or, rather, a trace) on the Earth's surface. You may be
             | lucky and that trace might cross a desolate ocean; or you
             | may not be lucky, and some Asian megalopolis with 25
             | million people may be below.
        
             | stetrain wrote:
             | Generally that isn't done for a vehicle in orbit, since the
             | distribution of debris in orbits used by other spacecraft
             | would be significant.
             | 
             | A Starship second stage stranded in orbit would be a
             | problem because detonation would cause a bunch of orbital
             | debris, but simply waiting for natural re-entry would
             | result in an unpredictable landing location that could
             | result in large debris reaching populated areas.
             | 
             | Reliable, controlled re-entry to a targeted location is
             | very important for Starship to be an operational launch
             | system.
        
             | cryptonector wrote:
             | Detonation in orbit would cause garbage in orbit that could
             | destroy many satellites. It is absolutely not permitted.
        
       | waltbosz wrote:
       | > the 30-minute launch window will open at 4:00 p.m. CT
       | 
       | Is that correct? They're launching in the afternoon this time?
        
         | Always42 wrote:
         | They call out later launch on the page linked
        
         | sbuttgereit wrote:
         | "Finally, adjusting the flight's launch window to the late
         | afternoon at Starbase will enable the ship to reenter over the
         | Indian Ocean in daylight, providing better conditions for
         | visual observations."
         | 
         | From the linked article.
        
         | rkagerer wrote:
         | _Finally, adjusting the flight's launch window to the late
         | afternoon at Starbase will enable the ship to reenter over the
         | Indian Ocean in daylight, providing better conditions for
         | visual observations._
        
         | Nekhrimah wrote:
         | It's explained further down the page that this launch time will
         | facilitate the Indian Ocean landing in sunlight, for improved
         | visual capture of that.
        
         | umeshunni wrote:
         | For anyone else who was confused and thought this was happening
         | today. It's actually in 12 days:
         | 
         | The sixth flight test of Starship is targeted to launch as
         | early as Monday, November 18.
         | 
         | The 30-minute launch window will open at 4:00 p.m. CT
        
       | modeless wrote:
       | SpaceX just posted this video of the last test. It's one of the
       | most inspiring things I've ever seen.
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hI9HQfCAw64
        
         | paul7986 wrote:
         | Not into space things and while this is cool i wonder what the
         | great significance of this is? I see lots signaling how great
         | this is and it's lost on me.
        
           | modeless wrote:
           | Totally reasonable question. This is the first rocket ever
           | that will (assuming further success) land in its entirety
           | back on the launch pad, refuel, and go back to orbit the same
           | day.
           | 
           | Imagine that every time an airliner landed its cockpit was
           | destroyed and you had to build a new one. A fully reusable
           | airplane would be a transformational improvement. That's the
           | level of achievement we're talking about here.
        
             | nexus6 wrote:
             | Is there such a need for a heavy launch rocket to launch
             | routinely?
        
               | stetrain wrote:
               | If we want to establish long term bases on the Moon or
               | Mars then yes, you need not only to send crew and
               | habitation modules but ongoing supplies and equipment.
               | 
               | Other use cases include launching and maintaining
               | satellite constellations (Starling / Starshield), and
               | launching singular large payloads like space telescopes.
               | 
               | Even for smaller payloads, having both the first and
               | second stages be reusable will reduce launch costs.
        
               | soperj wrote:
               | If satellites don't have to worry as much about weight
               | constraints they can be made cheaper and quicker. Space
               | missions can become more routine.
        
               | modeless wrote:
               | SpaceX already launches multiple times per month just to
               | maintain Starlink. That will be much cheaper with
               | Starship while enabling larger and more capable
               | satellites. In fact, it's likely that one of the reasons
               | SpaceX built Starlink is to create their own customer
               | (and spur competitors) to plausibly use a significant
               | fraction of Starship's capabilities. None existed at the
               | time.
               | 
               | In the near term the biggest reason to do multiple
               | launches in a day will be orbital refueling. This is
               | required for sending much, much larger payloads to the
               | Moon and Mars. It will require on the order of 10
               | launches to fuel up one moon lander in orbit, and
               | obviously doing that as quickly as possible will be
               | beneficial. NASA has already committed to this plan for
               | Artemis.
        
               | dmurray wrote:
               | > It will require on the order of 10 launches to fuel up
               | one moon lander in orbit
               | 
               | Require, or just make comfortable? Saturn V had the lift
               | capacity of "only" a couple of Falcon Heavies, but was
               | enough to carry astronauts, a car, a lunar lander with
               | enough fuel to take off, and a command module.
        
               | modeless wrote:
               | We're not trying to do Apollo again. That would be
               | easier, but we want to build a base this time. For that
               | we need to send a _lot_ more mass and it needs a _lot_
               | more fuel.
        
               | fernandopj wrote:
               | Require. I answered that in this same subtopic.
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | Needs tend to develop once the means are there.
               | 
               | 200 years ago, there was no need to use electricity. 100
               | years ago, there was no need to use a programming
               | language. 30 years ago, there was no need for gigabit
               | wireless Internet.
        
               | JacobThreeThree wrote:
               | Nobody will ever need more than 640k of RAM.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | Or perhaps earlier and closer to the heart of USA's
               | citizens, 300 years ago, there was no need for rail lines
               | and trains.
        
               | Animats wrote:
               | > Needs tend to develop once the means are there.
               | 
               | Counterexample: space stations. We've had small manned
               | space stations for decades now, but no real application
               | for them. They're national prestige items only.
        
               | edm0nd wrote:
               | Yes, obviously.
               | 
               | It takes a heavy launch rocket to launch heavier things
               | into space or missions, refueling, and to goto other
               | planets.
        
               | fernandopj wrote:
               | It's a mandate for the next Artemis Mission. [1]
               | 
               | The HLS (Spaceship) will need many refuels at orbit in
               | order to get to the Moon and back. That means at least a
               | dozen of fully-loaded Heavy launches to LEO just so each
               | one of them can load a bit of fuel into HLS. The fuel in
               | orbit can't sit idle for too long, or it deteriorates; I
               | haven't found a limit on days for that, but a week-long
               | launch window is considered a dealbreaker, we're talking
               | a dozen Heavy launches in a week.
               | 
               | It's either a short launch window, or at least 6
               | Starships built and launched twice in ~10 days. Don't
               | count out on SpaceX building 12 Heavy Starships just for
               | that Artemis mission.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III
        
               | dwaltrip wrote:
               | Yes, to do anything at all in the rest of the universe.
               | 
               | We are insatiably curious explorers. The cosmos calls to
               | us. Many are willing to do anything they can to answer
               | that call.
        
             | eunoia wrote:
             | > go again the same day.
             | 
             | That seems like a stretch. What is the actual turnaround
             | time for Starship? fwiw the Shuttle had a lot of lofty
             | promises of reusability that were technically true as long
             | as you didn't consider how long the turnaround time was.
        
               | modeless wrote:
               | It's a good question. The hurdle to clear for same-day
               | reuse will be the heat shield. SpaceX hasn't yet
               | demonstrated that Starship can reenter the atmosphere and
               | remain fully intact. Doing it while sustaining near zero
               | wear on the heat shield will be even harder. But I think
               | it is not impossible, and I don't know of any other
               | obvious blockers for same day reuse.
        
               | YetAnotherNick wrote:
               | Even if they can reuse the booster, it would be huge.
        
               | soperj wrote:
               | They'll likely reuse the booster on the same day well
               | before the starship portion. No heat shield on the
               | booster. Some starships will likely stay in space for a
               | long time before returning.
        
               | thinkcontext wrote:
               | Musk has said they're aiming for hundreds of reuses for
               | the booster and dozens for the ship.
        
               | BurningFrog wrote:
               | It's certainly looked fully intact when reaching ground.
               | 
               | When they manage to do the intended landing it should be
               | pretty unharmed, but I'm sure it will take a while before
               | same-day reuse is attempted.
        
               | modeless wrote:
               | One of the flaps burned through again. Not as bad as the
               | first time. The hinge area seems like the hardest
               | challenge.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | Is this a bit of over engineering? How much is drag
               | reduced during liftoff by having the flaps folded?
        
               | modeless wrote:
               | The reason the flaps move is to provide attitude and
               | speed control during reentry. Like a skydiver spreading
               | their arms and legs.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | oh, you mean like actual flaps of pretty much any
               | aircraft. doh! i was thinking it was like the folding of
               | the wings for planes on an aircraft carrier. sometimes my
               | brain, boy, i don't know
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | It was a flap hinge that burnt through, not the flap.
               | They have a solution for block 2 which we'll likely see
               | in test 7 -- move the flap slightly further back so that
               | the hinge isn't in direct flow.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Zero wear is not necessary. The tiles can be thicker than
               | the minimum, and be reusable until they wear down to the
               | minimum. Like the brake pads on your car.
        
               | soperj wrote:
               | With the Falcon 9 they're already at over 100 launches
               | this year. It's multiple rockets, but the turn around is
               | pretty quick and getting quicker every year. They're
               | designing starship from the start with same day
               | turnaround in mind. I wouldn't bet against it I guess.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Some of SpaceX's first stages are getting close to the
               | individual Shuttles' launch counts, with substantially
               | less turnaround time and cost than Shuttle ever had.
               | 
               | Starship has work to do, but it's hard to argue they're
               | not at least on the right path.
        
               | fragmede wrote:
               | The previous flight was October 13, 2024, so while I
               | can't speak to every day, one month turnaround is a
               | reality.
        
               | soperj wrote:
               | It's a completely different booster and ship that's
               | flying.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | And both are already outdated - flight _seven_ (Ship 33)
               | introduces a new generation of hardware. They 're moving
               | fast with these.
        
               | gridspy wrote:
               | The shuttle boosters required rebuilding / refueling
               | (which is solid rocket goop) and the fuel tank was
               | completely lost and required rebuilding. The head shield
               | tiles were extremely fragile on the shuttle.
               | 
               | It was never a fully reusable design, just more reusable
               | than before.
               | 
               | SpaceX plans to have no parts that are lost each flight
               | and is working to make the tiles mostly standardized and
               | less sensitive to faults.
        
               | trompetenaccoun wrote:
               | Are they going to replace all the tiles before it can
               | relaunch? And what about the engine nozzles? They must be
               | taking quite the beating.
               | 
               | No doubt SpaceX has very smart people working on this and
               | I'm not an expert in material science, but I just find it
               | hard to believe that same day turnaround could be
               | possible. If true, that would really make us a confirmed
               | space faring civilization. We could actually start
               | colonizing Mars.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _what about the engine nozzles?_
               | 
               | Falcon 9 has reflown in just over 4 hours [1]. (EDIT:
               | Operational turnaround. Nozzles have been turned around
               | allegedly without refurb in 3 weeks.)
               | 
               | [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_
               | Falcon_...
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | No, those were separate craft, on opposite sides of the
               | country. It demonstrates an ability to manage multiple
               | missions at once, but not rapid booster turnaround.
               | 
               | https://www.space.com/spacex-starlink-launch-
               | doubleheader-ju...
               | 
               | They've since done two flights in about an hour with
               | https://spaceflightnow.com/tag/starlink-9-5/ and
               | https://spaceflightnow.com/tag/starlink-8-10/
               | 
               | I think the first-stage turnaround record is something
               | like two weeks.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_first-
               | stage_b...
               | 
               | > B1062 booster holds the record for fastest turnaround
               | at 21 days. It launched on 8 April and again on 29 April
               | 2022.
        
               | dr_orpheus wrote:
               | For context on JumpCrisscross's comment in this thread:
               | the 4 hours is between two separate launches on two
               | separate rockets. This is absolutely not refurbishing and
               | launching the same rocket 4 hours apart.
               | 
               | Seems like the actual record for turning around the same
               | booster is 21 days, which is still quite impressive.
               | 
               | https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-falcon-9-new-booster-
               | turnar...
        
               | wongarsu wrote:
               | The heat tiles are reusable, just like the Shuttle's.
               | They are basically just a material that insulates very
               | well, instead of a traditional ablative heat shield that
               | burns away. With the space shuttle they ended up spending
               | a lot of time inspecting each tile for damage and
               | replacing cracked tiles. SpaceX has a modern iteration of
               | the same material, hopefully with fewer cracks.
               | 
               | Other factors that work in SpaceX's favor are 1) that
               | most launches will be unmanned, meaning they can take
               | bigger risks than the Space Shuttle program; 2) that the
               | steel body of Starship can handle higher temperatures
               | than the Space Shuttle's aluminum, so a compromised heat
               | shield is more tolerable; 3) for now they have a
               | secondary ablative heat shield below the tiles (that does
               | have to be replaced when it gets used, but that should
               | only happen when tiles fall off)
        
               | LorenDB wrote:
               | For the Super Heavy booster, SpaceX is targeting a <1hr
               | turnaround time. For the ship, it gets a bit more
               | complex. Ships have to make complete orbits before
               | returning, and generally they have to be loaded with
               | cargo as well. Tanker Starships for lunar/Mars missions
               | will probably have pretty quick turnaround given that
               | fuel can be loaded on the pad; other ships will have
               | significantly longer turnarounds.
        
             | 7e wrote:
             | I think the economics of space are are much more likely to
             | be transformed by something like
             | https://www.longshotspace.com/. Rockets are complex, still
             | costly, and polluting.
        
               | modeless wrote:
               | The problem with space guns is you can't just yeet rocks
               | into orbit. Any orbit that starts at the surface returns
               | to the surface. So you still need a disposable rocket and
               | avionics and fuel in every payload to change the orbit
               | once out of the atmosphere. Only now the rocket needs to
               | survive being literally shot out of a gun _and_ then
               | traveling at orbital velocity in atmosphere. That puts a
               | pretty high floor on the cost per shot.
        
               | gridspy wrote:
               | Plus, your payload needs to be gun compatible. Not gonna
               | put people in there.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Well, in WW2 we did manage to put working radar in
               | artillery shells.
        
               | 7e wrote:
               | Space is for robots.
        
               | dr_orpheus wrote:
               | If you want to look at someone that is further along on a
               | concept like this you can look at SpinLaunch. Exactly
               | what it sounds like with a gigantic centrifuge to spin
               | and throw things really fast. But they are still throwing
               | a small two-stage rocket.
               | 
               | https://www.spinlaunch.com/orbital
        
               | 7e wrote:
               | I think a reusable orbital tug which rendezvous with
               | payloads is the play here. The tug would refuel from some
               | of the gun-launched payloads.
        
             | irthomasthomas wrote:
             | He's already spent the $3bn funding that was supposed to
             | deliver the rocket to the moon and back.
        
               | vojtapol wrote:
               | That's just straight up not true. The $3bn were never
               | meant to fund the entire project in the way you imply.
        
           | tedsanders wrote:
           | If you go to space, 90% of the cost is the rocket (depending
           | on your accounting). If rockets can be made reusable, then
           | you can drop costs by 90%, to first order. Cheaper rockets
           | means cheaper satellites for internet and sensors and stuff.
        
             | gridspy wrote:
             | Also, as mass to orbit gets cheaper you can build your
             | payload more cheaply. Many compromises in complexity and
             | material cost are made to minimize payload mass - we'll be
             | able to launch cheap and heavy satellites and probes into
             | orbit instead.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Cheaper rockets also mean cheaper payload in that the
               | payloads don't have to be engineered to such high
               | standards of reliability.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | >(depending on your accounting).
             | 
             | some of the best weasel words ever laid to print. Enron
             | accounting vs PWC vs your mom using Quickbooks for her side
             | hustle type of depending?
        
           | inglor_cz wrote:
           | Rockets that are easily reusable make spaceflight a lot more
           | logistically feasible, which should translate to a massive
           | drop in costs.
           | 
           | We are going to see massively increased space activity of all
           | sorts. It is almost impossible to predict all consequences
           | thereof.
        
           | soperj wrote:
           | Price decreases significantly when you can reuse. This rocket
           | is the same size as the ones that brought the Apollo missions
           | to the moon, but will cost significantly less because they
           | don't have to build one every time they launch it.
        
           | stetrain wrote:
           | It's a rocket in the same ballpark as the Saturn V but where
           | the two stages can both be recovered and re-used.
           | 
           | SpaceX has demonstrated being able to fly the same rocket
           | stage dozens of times with minimal refurbishment with their
           | Falcon 9 family of rockets, but they still have to build and
           | discard the second stage of the Falcon 9 for each launch.
           | 
           | Starship scales that up in magnitude and adds second-stage
           | reusability.
        
           | politician wrote:
           | Consider ocean-going freight transportation: the container
           | ships and the containers, the port facilities and the cranes.
           | Now imagine that you were able to witness the very first
           | round-trip sailing of such a container ship between two newly
           | constructed still-experimental-and-heretofore-unproven ports.
           | 
           | That'd be pretty cool right? The dawn of a new era in global
           | trade.
           | 
           | This is that, for space. (Booster as container ship, Orbital
           | vehicle as container, launch tower as literal crane, launch
           | complex as port)
        
             | tialaramex wrote:
             | No. The ports were just expanding on an existing idea. I
             | live in a port city, a thousand years ago middle ages
             | people with much smaller boats used this same area to
             | travel much shorter distances with fewer goods, today it
             | has those cranes and a railway and moves inter-modal
             | containers which have travelled from across the world, but
             | it's just the same idea.
             | 
             | Why is there a port here? Because of the unusual tidal
             | pattern? Deep water? No. People. The other reasons are
             | reasons to put the port here maybe in particular rather
             | than a few miles in either direction, but the _people_ are
             | why there 's a port. In 1024 there were thousands of
             | people, today perhaps closer to half a million depending on
             | how you count.
             | 
             | There are no people on Luna, and no people on Mars.
             | Visiting these barren rocks is like going up Everest.
             | 
             | This damp rock is where our species was born and it's where
             | it will die. It's not much, but its ours, and there's
             | nothing like it within any plausible travel distance.
        
           | MostlyStable wrote:
           | This article [0] is a pretty good explainer for why Starship
           | is such a big deal
           | 
           | [0] https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2021/10/28/starship-
           | is-st...
        
             | cylinder714 wrote:
             | Brilliant article, and I neglected to bookmark it earlier,
             | thank you.
        
             | Animats wrote:
             | That's very good. And it's from 2021. Since then:
             | 
             | - Starship is actually launching now
             | 
             | - Boeing's reputation and credibility are in tatters
             | 
             | - Trump won with heavy support from Musk.
             | 
             | Expect a new head of NASA who is pro-Musk, and a
             | cancellation of the Senate Launch System.
             | 
             | On the other hand, it's not clear what a Moon base is good
             | for. The ISS isn't very useful.
        
           | Ductapemaster wrote:
           | This is a great resource for why Starship is groundbreaking.
           | So much so, it's not even really comprehensive to the
           | existing space-industrial complex.
           | 
           | https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2021/10/28/starship-is-
           | st...
        
           | hadlock wrote:
           | The big thing is that it dramatically reduces the cost of
           | shipping things into space. Previously it was difficult to
           | ship anything much larger than a compact car in to orbit. Now
           | you can ship half of a basketball court into orbit, including
           | all the vertical space.
           | 
           | Until very very recently the roughly bus sized ISS modules
           | were the largest habitable spaces we could ship to orbit
           | (although Skylab in the 70s were basically repurposed Saturn
           | V fuel tanks and also big) so now it's possible/probable we
           | can ship 20 people to space, and have moderately comfortable
           | accommodations for them.
           | 
           | We can also ship mining equipment and substancially more
           | supplies to the moon. Or mars. We went from using pack goats
           | to 18 wheelers to ship stuff in space. The pack goat can ship
           | a handful of hand made silk scarves and Faberge eggs over the
           | Himalayas, but the 18 wheeler can deliver everything from
           | socks and tshirts to cell phones and big screen tvs and
           | trucks and lawn mowers. This really opens up space to more
           | than the highest, most bleeding edge science and we might
           | actually see more than 100 humans in space at the same time,
           | in our lifetimes.
        
             | taneq wrote:
             | Literally anything but the metric system, huh? ;)
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | I applaud GP's effort at also avoiding shipping cliches
               | like Olympic-size swimming pools.
        
               | hadlock wrote:
               | Well, basketball courts have a ~12m diameter 3-point
               | line, and the inside of a starship is ~9m. Swimming pools
               | are mostly rectangular from the outside observer's
               | perspective.
        
           | adamm255 wrote:
           | I'm with you. As landing the thing means nothing if you can't
           | get payloads to the destination. To get this thing to the
           | moon would need like 20 refuelling flights to meet it on the
           | way.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | this just reads as very strange. "meet it on the way"? it's
             | not like they can place these in an orbit that they can
             | just pull up and stop to refuel like a highway gas station.
             | the refueling "pod" would need to be moving at the same
             | speed as the ship.
        
           | llboston wrote:
           | Imagine if a round-trip flight from the US to Europe didn't
           | cost $500, but only $5, unbelievable, right? This is exactly
           | what Starship will do to space travel. Many things we see in
           | sci-fi, like lunar and Martian cities or orbital cruise
           | ships, could soon become reality.
           | 
           | Personally, I can't wait to see a massive, kilometer-wide
           | telescope in space or nestled in a crater on the Moon. We
           | might finally figure out dark matter, dark energy, anti-
           | gravity.
        
             | deanCommie wrote:
             | See this is the kind of thing that's not helpful.
             | 
             | It's just an outlandish overly optimistic mishmash of
             | different concepts.
             | 
             | Let's start with your analogy:
             | 
             | > Imagine if a round-trip flight from the US to Europe
             | didn't cost $500, but only $5, unbelievable, right?
             | 
             | If you mean to use this to explain that what today costs X
             | will in the future cost 0.01X, you're probably right.
             | 
             | But a more accurate analogy is "Imagine if a round-trip
             | flight from the US to Europe didn't cost $50,000,000, but
             | only $500,000, unbelievable, right?"
             | 
             | Same ratios, but deeply different implications.
             | 
             | Today, the idea of setting up a continuously settled Mars
             | colony - hell even a Moon colony - is unfeasibly expensive.
             | It's ACHIEVABLE - we have the technology and the money -
             | but it would cost an intolerable percentage of the GDP of
             | the world to accomplish.
             | 
             | A 100x reduction in costs means that it becomes a fundable
             | endeavour that countries like the US could still justify.
             | 
             | We're still talking about generations - maybe a century -
             | away from someone being able to just pop over to Mars for a
             | summer vacation, the way that a college student could to do
             | today with an intercontinental flight.
             | 
             | > Many things we see in sci-fi, like lunar and Martian
             | cities or orbital cruise ships, could soon become reality.
             | 
             | For a very generous definition of soon and for a highly
             | implausible definition of what a "cruise ship" is - it'll
             | never be as accessible to the average person as earth
             | cruise ships. Not as long as you keep using rockets.
             | 
             | Regardless of reusability, there are realities of fixed
             | FOSSIL FUEL costs associated with getting into gravity.
             | They're not cheap, and they're not frivolous. If you want
             | to be able get things into orbit as cheap as you're
             | suggesting, you need to start investing in a space
             | elevator, which noone is right now.
             | 
             | > Personally, I can't wait to see a massive, kilometer-wide
             | telescope in space
             | 
             | Cool, yeah, that's true, that becomes more available.
             | 
             | > or nestled in a crater on the Moon.
             | 
             | ..why?
             | 
             | > We might finally figure out dark matter, dark energy,
             | anti-gravity.
             | 
             | And the final cherry on the cake. Humanity becoming inter-
             | planetary is important on a macro scale. And trying to go
             | further and further into space will INCENTIVISE research
             | into these concepts.
             | 
             | But in no way does getting to orbit cheaper make it easier
             | to figure out any of these concepts. There's nothing we can
             | do from Mars or on the way to Mars in terms of this science
             | that we can't do from Earth.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | > _A 100x reduction in costs means that it becomes a
               | fundable endeavour that countries like the US could still
               | justify._
               | 
               | Don't forget the dynamics. Costs of all such projects
               | drop further when early steps become affordable. Like,
               | with 100x reduction on the sticker price, US might feel
               | Mars colony is still too expensive a project, but 100x
               | reduction on trying out some adjacent space tech may just
               | be in range of NASA budget or some private interest.
               | Steps get made, iterated on, making next steps cheaper
               | and more likely to happen. Derisking compounds.
               | 
               | I do agree it'd still be a decades long project at least
               | (with a settlement established early on; it's the tail
               | end that will drag on).
               | 
               |  _> > or nestled in a crater on the Moon._
               | 
               |  _>..why?_
               | 
               | Having some gravity and hard surface to build on
               | simplifies engineering challenges, particularly on large
               | scales, as in free space, tension becomes a big issue.
               | And, perhaps more importantly, the Moon would shield the
               | telescope from all the electromagnetic noise produced on
               | Earth, _and also by the Sun_.
        
         | guld wrote:
         | For those of you who like dubstep, start the following video
         | first https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2eBMuL0C2o then 3
         | seconds later start to watch the (muted) SpaceX video from OP's
         | post and thank me later. ;-)
         | 
         | Especially the catch is awesome!
        
           | lasc4r wrote:
           | I think it's a cool achievement, but for some perspective
           | NASA first did a vertical rocket ship landing without
           | chopsticks decades ago.
           | 
           | And the whole point of this thing was to do that on the moon,
           | which is never going to happen at this rate.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | Is the whole point of this thing to land the first stage on
             | the moon, or just the Starship? My understanding is that
             | it's just Starship, and the first stage will always return
             | to Earth. I think one of us has a very confused
             | understanding of the whole point of the thing.
        
             | adamm255 wrote:
             | NASA Landed on the moon in the 60s with an abacus. SpaceX
             | can't get out of low Earth orbit.
        
               | ranger207 wrote:
               | Didn't SpaceX launch Europa Clipper to Jupiter a few
               | weeks ago?
        
               | bandyaboot wrote:
               | They also flung a Tesla Roadster off into a wayward
               | journey around the Sun. Not nearly as impressive I know,
               | but significantly more amusing.
        
               | shirro wrote:
               | Clipper is a massive payload for a planetary science
               | mission as well. SLS was the only other operational US
               | vehicle with the payload capacity.
        
               | tim333 wrote:
               | A did not Musk's old Tesla end up near Mars a while back?
        
               | zwily wrote:
               | Do you really believe that they "can't" get out of low
               | earth orbit, as opposed to "haven't yet"??
        
               | gridspy wrote:
               | I think it's a really responsible decision by SpaceX to
               | not put their StarShip stage into a full orbit until they
               | have demonstrated the ability to get it back out of
               | orbit.
               | 
               | They should be applauded for this, along with their
               | iterative approach.
               | 
               | Note that this next test will demonstrate re-light of the
               | engine in space at micro-gravity. This is the
               | demonstration needed prior to putting the StarShip in
               | orbit. We'll probably see a full orbital test for the
               | flight after this one.
               | 
               | They could have easily put previous tests into orbit -
               | it's a fairly minor change to their existing regime and
               | they have plenty of fuel to use.
        
             | daedalus_j wrote:
             | They did? I've not heard of that, and a cursory search
             | isn't finding anything. Got any more info on this, which
             | rocket, etc? I'd love to learn about that.
        
               | tcmart14 wrote:
               | I am assuming they are talking about this?
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzXcTFfV3Ls&t=3s
               | 
               | Edit: Another link with probably better info
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AC1wgWi9WWU
               | 
               | TLDR: DC-X (Delta Clipper X)
        
             | joshmarlow wrote:
             | And in 2002 a neuroscientist hooked a camera to a blind
             | man's brain and he could see well enough to drive a car
             | around an empty parking lot without running into things.
             | And yet there are still many blind people.
             | 
             | Doing something cool once doesn't impact civilization.
             | Doing it affordably at scale does. If Space X can do the
             | chopstick landing reliably and integrate it into their
             | operations, then _that_ will be impactful - and change
             | civilization.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_H._Dobelle
        
           | kak9 wrote:
           | this was great. i hope someone just recuts video with exactly
           | this soundtrack
        
           | TeMPOraL wrote:
           | Nice, how did you find a music clip with such a good match
           | across the whole video? Or are you saying you know that
           | SpaceX media people were using that as test music when
           | cutting theirs?
        
           | teractiveodular wrote:
           | OK, that's downright creepy. Especially that the singing
           | starts with the lyrics "holding on" at the exact moment the
           | booster is caught by the chopsticks.
        
         | hackitup7 wrote:
         | I find the experience of watching these SpaceX videos very
         | emotional. There's something really inspiring both from an
         | "exploring the universe" perspective and also just from the
         | human side of all of the effort that went into them.
         | 
         | The first video that really got to me was when they landed
         | multiple boosters. This one as well, especially seeing the
         | rocket take off with every booster firing when compared with
         | the first Starship launch when you could see that some failed
         | to light. It's like watching your child take their first steps,
         | and then seeing them win an Olympic medal for running. Just
         | incredible stuff.
        
           | thelastparadise wrote:
           | This kind of thing is why I got into engineering in the first
           | place.
           | 
           | There's so much more to it than money.
        
         | irthomasthomas wrote:
         | They took $3bn and where supposed to deliver a trip to the moon
         | for that. Instead we got this video of a catch, which isn't
         | even one of the listed milestones. Not great.
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | That $3B is milestone based, they don't get it until they
           | deliver on the milestones. AFAICT, they've only hit a single
           | milestone on the plan, and have received <$100M of the $3B to
           | date.
        
         | neverrroot wrote:
         | Amazing what one stubborn person can put into motion
        
       | unaut wrote:
       | Seriously, who cares! There are far more interesting stuff in
       | space exploration than this flight tests of a giant boiler that's
       | been going on for years now.
        
         | hersko wrote:
         | You must be joking
        
           | shkkmo wrote:
           | I find the starship news exciting, but given the incremental
           | nature of starship development, it really isn't the most
           | exciting stuff happening today with space exploration as
           | there is all kinds of other cool stuff happening and being
           | discovered.
           | 
           | One example off the top of my head:
           | 
           | https://earthsky.org/space/final-parker-solar-probe-flyby-
           | of...
        
             | rbanffy wrote:
             | Starship is an enabling technology. We can easily imagine
             | the things it will make possible.
        
               | shkkmo wrote:
               | Which is why I find it exciting and am stoked every time
               | I see progress made.
               | 
               | Howevever, it's hard to view an announcement of the next
               | launch with some minor additions to the experimental
               | flight, as the most exciting space news today. Future
               | launches, once they get the license updated, will he more
               | exciting.
        
               | righthand wrote:
               | Please list them because right now it is a hugely costly
               | project that has shown no significant capital advancement
               | for society beyond propping up Elon Musk and a "someday
               | the average man will walk on the moon" dream. If anything
               | of capital gain comes from it, it will never actually
               | benefit the financial bottom line of the middle and lower
               | class.
        
               | shkkmo wrote:
               | Space based technology has massive impact on every day
               | life. From GPS to weather prediction to communications,
               | space infrastructure is critical to modern life.
               | 
               | Launch costs significantly reduce what we can build in
               | space and what research we co do there. Decreasing launch
               | costs makes our research funding more effective and
               | reduces the capital costs and projected profit margins
               | needed to build space based infrastructure.
               | 
               | SpaceX has already enabled significant economic growth
               | and innovation with the launch cost reductions brought by
               | the various falcon rockets and their reusability.
               | 
               | If Starship can accomplish it's reusability goals, an
               | ever greater reduction of launch costs is possible. This
               | would jump start an even bigger space industry boom than
               | the one we are in today.
        
           | unaut wrote:
           | Nope, not joking at all.
        
       | montagg wrote:
       | I'm just going to choose peace today and say: the SpaceX
       | engineers who've been at this forever and have shown that crazy
       | stuff is actually possible are seriously amazing humans, and I do
       | hope they are successful.
        
         | trompetenaccoun wrote:
         | >I'm just going to choose peace today
         | 
         | As an alternative to what? I don't understand how the first
         | part of the comment is connected to the rest.
        
           | steve_adams_86 wrote:
           | I think they're trying to maintain focus on the engineering
           | rather than the politics surrounding Musk at the moment.
        
             | trompetenaccoun wrote:
             | The news is about SpaceX sharing the launch date for the
             | 6th Starship test flight. Musk is not even mentioned in the
             | announcement.
        
               | seanw444 wrote:
               | Yet people cannot help themselves.
        
               | jjk166 wrote:
               | Musk owns, runs, and is the public face of SpaceX, he is
               | automatically germane to any discussion of it.
        
           | renewiltord wrote:
           | It is traditional to summon an Elon Musk Flamewar by implying
           | even vaguely that he is successful. Elon Musk's support for a
           | candidate may have been pivotal in that candidate's win
           | today. This sort of thing is like bathing in gasoline next to
           | a forest fire.
        
           | Geee wrote:
           | He choose not to mention the top 20 Diablo IV player.
        
         | Arbaji8 wrote:
         | Can we stop saying "humans" and start saying "people" again?
         | Are you from another species?
        
       | jimnotgym wrote:
       | I imagine SpaceX is on for some pretty juicy government contracts
       | now!
        
         | mjamesaustin wrote:
         | Yes, considering they're achieving far better results at much
         | lower cost than the SLS and other launch providers.
        
           | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
           | That remains to be seen. It ain't finished yet!
        
             | indoordin0saur wrote:
             | They're already the best and cheapest launch provider with
             | Falcon 9.
        
               | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
               | Falcon 9 and SLS are not in the same class.
        
         | starik36 wrote:
         | They already have lion's share of NASA and Space Force govt
         | contracts.
         | 
         | Cargo runs to ISS, bringing astronauts to and from ISS, NROL
         | missions, scientific missions (like Europa Clipper recently).
        
           | jimnotgym wrote:
           | Sure they do, but the government could choose to spend more
           | or less on space, couldn't they?
        
         | rdtsc wrote:
         | Shouldn't they be? Boeing, Lockheed and Blue Origin are welcome
         | to compete and do just as well.
        
         | indoordin0saur wrote:
         | You mean after the Boeing debacle?
        
       | bnastic wrote:
       | Thread devolved into petty politics quicker than expected.
        
         | oittaa wrote:
         | I tried to search faq how to block people but couldn't find any
         | info. How do I do that?
         | 
         | If it's not possible, I'm pretty sure this site is breaking the
         | EU social media laws.
        
           | mise_en_place wrote:
           | HN is a pretty high trust site, I'd hope the community is
           | still mature enough to self-moderate. Then again I was here
           | when Terry would post his (admittedly) entertaining rants,
           | the epic Michael O'Church essays, and flamewars between
           | idlewords and pg. Maybe it always allowed for a little bit of
           | funposting, in moderation.
        
           | shkkmo wrote:
           | Which EU laws do you think mandate a 'block' feaure on HN?
        
           | akvadrako wrote:
           | The site doesn't need to follow the laws of every country on
           | earth. If they had paid advertisers from EU it would be
           | different.
        
           | AnonMO wrote:
           | A brilliant idea some startup accelerator in the EU can
           | create a platform that conforms to EU laws. It can't be that
           | hard, given that the UI hasn't changed much in a decade or
           | more. I can already see it "Hacker news, but hosted in the EU
           | with Swiss privacy and is GDPR compliant".
        
           | tantalor wrote:
           | That rule doesn't exist.
        
           | JacobThreeThree wrote:
           | There's no "block user" requirement in the EU DSA.
        
           | dpifke wrote:
           | I use uBlock Origin cosmetic filters for blocking trolls on
           | here. Something like:
           | news.ycombinator.com##:matches-path(/^/item\?id=/) tr
           | a.hnuser:has-text(/^dpifke$/):upward(tr)
        
       | chairmanwow1 wrote:
       | Well, I started planning a road trip down Austin as soon as I saw
       | this post. Crew of friends is coming together to watch! Thanks
       | for posting. I'm so excited to witness this in person.
        
       | mise_en_place wrote:
       | Does anyone know how to witness these launch events live? Is it
       | open to the public or only SpaceX employees + friends & family?
        
         | ganyu wrote:
         | I believe they clear out the launch site within a few
         | kilometres so nobody gets hit by random concrete debris or just
         | melt away, literally. The control centre is probably
         | invitational.
         | 
         | But you can freely watch them live on Twitter. Just follow the
         | official @SpaceX account.
        
         | llboston wrote:
         | Yes it's open to everyone. South Padre Island would be your
         | best bet.
        
           | cryptonector wrote:
           | So is the Gulf, except in the areas closed by the notam.
        
         | rigrassm wrote:
         | Isla Blanca Park on South Padre Island is the best public spot
         | you can watch from (IIRC it's 3 or 4 miles from the launch pad)
         | and it's an amazing experience, highly recommended to anyone
         | who's able to make it out.
        
       | adamm255 wrote:
       | Can someone give me sources for how to debunk this?
       | https://youtu.be/75a49S4RTRU?si=dcGFgcIWNz3nDwxw
       | 
       | For me, it's compelling but I'm no expert. Anyone got any
       | background that can prove this guy is wrong?
        
         | ThrowawayTestr wrote:
         | TF has had terminal Musk derangement syndrome for a while now.
         | You can safely ignore him.
        
         | cryptonector wrote:
         | TF seems to have an axe to grind with all things Musk.
        
           | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
           | What did he say that was wrong?
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | I've liked some of his other videos and made it in twenty
         | minutes. He has three arguments: SpaceX is late and over budget
         | on HLS, booster recapture is the easiest part of Starship's
         | technical risks and Starship is bad value for money.
         | 
         | On the first two he's right. Starship was, per SpaceX's
         | proposal to NASA, supposed to be almost ready by now. It's not.
         | But neither is any other leg of Artemis, and there is no
         | unforgivable delay in the timeline. (To the degree there _are_
         | stupid delays, it's because the FAA was playing water cop.)
         | 
         | Recapture _is_ the easiest technical challenge of the
         | programme. Partly because SpaceX already demonstrated most of
         | the tech with Falcon 9. Partly because in-orbit refuelling is
         | unprecedented. The lunar lander was one of the easiest parts of
         | the Apollo programme, by similar measure--that doesn't make it
         | unimpressive.
         | 
         | The last--bad bang for the buck--is a value judgement. Do we
         | want a heavy lift booster or more Mars rovers? If we want
         | sustainable access to space, we need cheaper launch. If one
         | doesn't care about that, rovers are better spend, but at that
         | point I can start arguing for feeding the hungry with those
         | bucks.
         | 
         | I stopped watching when the criticism of Falcon 9's price came
         | up. Why should SpaceX, a private company, undercut itself? It's
         | already the cheapest (PSLV gives it a run for some orbits),
         | most reliable and most frequent launch provider in the world.
         | It makes sense to capture the delta as profit, in part to fund
         | things like Starship. (There is also no inflation adjustment.)
         | 
         | In summary, the technical criticisms are accurate but out of
         | context. The value judgement is subjective. If you don't value
         | cheap, frequent space launch _of course_ Starship won't make
         | sense for any amount of money.
         | 
         | EDIT: Kept watching. The energy math on second-stage reentry is
         | okay as a first estimate. But we don't have final numbers for
         | anything. And there are a lot of unknowns, _e.g._ final dry
         | weight, how much energy the heat tiles can store and dissipate,
         | if transpiration cooling could work, how plasma could dissipate
         | energy, whether compression heat could be redirected away from
         | the craft, whether firing mid-descent could reduce heat, _et
         | cetera_. We certainly don't have enough data to reject it _ex
         | ante_. And the second stage being unreadable doesn't tank
         | Starship, though it probably does Artemis.
        
           | nulld3v wrote:
           | > I stopped watching when the criticism of Falcon 9's pricing
           | came up. Why should SpaceX, a private company, undercut
           | itself? It's already the cheapest (relative to mass; PSLV
           | gives it a run for some orbits), most reliable and most
           | frequent launch provider in the world. It makes sense for
           | them to capture the delta as profit versus cut prices for the
           | sake of it. (There is also no inflation adjusting done.)
           | 
           | Exactly, this is such an egregious claim that it proves there
           | is no way this guy is arguing in good faith.
           | 
           | He says SpaceX only saves a tiny bit of money due to reuse
           | because the retail price for F9 expendable is only a bit more
           | than F9 reuseable.
           | 
           | That's like saying because the Big Mac costs $6.29 and the
           | Big Mac combo costs $11.69, then therefore the drink and
           | fries must cost McD's $5.40 to make. Just ridiculous.
        
         | larkost wrote:
         | I think he is probably right, if you think of Starship has a
         | government-paid program to produce a moon lander. The Starship
         | program has blown though the NASA money to produce the basic
         | version (but not yet the additional money agreed for a more
         | advanced design), but has yet to deliver on any of their
         | contracted goals.
         | 
         | So by its own contract, it is just about to be over-budget,
         | behind schedule, and thus a failed project. You can argue about
         | the pandemic blowing their timing, but the fact remain.
         | 
         | But SpaceX is not treating the Starship as solely a moon
         | landing project. They are using NASA's money presumably
         | alongside other SpaceX and Starlink monies to produce a
         | workhorse for a number of projects alongside the moon lander
         | part. In the closer-term it will become the launch vehicle for
         | Starlink (the next-gen of which is too big to be launched on
         | other vehicles), and in the (very) long-term as a vehicle to
         | Mars.
         | 
         | So SpaceX probably sees the Starship project as behind schedule
         | (par for the course, both for space projects, and for Elon
         | Musk), but not out-of-budget. Whether their customer, NASA,
         | agrees with this outlook is something you would have to ask
         | them.
         | 
         | So I think that the video's points are true, but lack some
         | context.
        
           | floating-io wrote:
           | You're ignoring that this is a fixed-price contract. It will
           | never be over-budget from NASA's perspective.
           | 
           | Also, for a project like HLS, you don't fail until you stop
           | trying (or get someone killed, but SpaceX has been pretty
           | good at not killing astronauts).
        
       | WalterBright wrote:
       | Science fiction becomes reality!
       | 
       | Love the diamonds in the exhaust!
        
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