[HN Gopher] Why Companies Are Ditching the Cloud: The Rise of Cl...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Why Companies Are Ditching the Cloud: The Rise of Cloud
       Repatriation
        
       Author : panrobo
       Score  : 200 points
       Date   : 2024-11-05 20:19 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (thenewstack.io)
 (TXT) w3m dump (thenewstack.io)
        
       | Circlecrypto2 wrote:
       | Seems like CIOs are finally listening to the Grey beards.
        
       | candiddevmike wrote:
       | I would guess that all of these companies that are moving back
       | are throwing in the towel on their cloud migration/modernization
       | plans under the guise of "repatriation" when it's really poor
       | execution without any responsibility.
        
         | toomuchtodo wrote:
         | It was easy when everyone was spending cheap money for
         | marketing and other vanity around moving to the cloud. But now
         | that money costs something, and everyone has to control costs,
         | repatriation is the new hotness when you want to save opex with
         | capex. Cloud margins are org savings.
         | 
         | The trick is to not care, and be proficient as a technologist;
         | you make money either way riding the hype cycle wave. Shades of
         | Three Envelopes for the CIO and whomever these decisions and
         | budgets roll up to.
         | 
         | https://kevinkruse.com/the-ceo-and-the-three-envelopes/
         | 
         | (If you genuinely get value out of premium compute and storage
         | at a cloud provider, you're likely going to keep doing that of
         | course, startups, unpredictable workloads, etc)
        
           | maccard wrote:
           | One of the things about startups is that if you've got any
           | external validation, gcp/aws/azure will give you 2-3 years
           | worth of free credits. When money is tight, free compute goes
           | a long way.
        
         | dilyevsky wrote:
         | Our poor strategic planning for cases where migration wasn't
         | necessary/feasible in the first place
        
       | jsnell wrote:
       | I don't know that 37Signals counts as a "major enterprise". Their
       | Cloud exodus can't have been more than a few dozen servers,
       | right?
       | 
       | Meanwhile AWS is growing at 20%/year, Azure at 33% and GCP at
       | 35%. That doesn't seem compatible with any kind of major cloud
       | repatriation trend.
        
         | WaxProlix wrote:
         | How much of that is what technologists would consider "cloud"
         | (IAAS, PAAS) versus what someone on the business side of things
         | would consider "cloud" - office365, google gsuite, etc?
        
           | tiffanyh wrote:
           | Given that AWS is doing $100B in annual revenue and still
           | growing at 17% YoY ... and they do NOT have a collaboration
           | suite (office/gsuite) - it'd say at least for AWS it's nearly
           | all IaaS/PaaS.
           | 
           | https://www.theregister.com/2024/05/01/amazon_q1_2024/
        
             | gonzo41 wrote:
             | I'd agree on IaaS/PaaS being the main driver. Id guess that
             | everyone is running away from serverless offerings from all
             | the main cloud providers. It's just day 1 lock in to a
             | platform with no shared standards. It's very uncompetitive
             | and kind of slow to innovate.
        
               | discodave wrote:
               | Amazon loves it when you run idle EC2 instances ($$$)
               | rather than using Lambda.
               | 
               | Most real workloads I've seen (at 3 startups, and several
               | teams at Amazon) have utilization under 10%.
        
               | _heimdall wrote:
               | That's really where you see that no answer is right
               | across the board.
               | 
               | I worked at a very small startup years ago that leaned
               | heavily on EC2. Our usage was pretty bipolar, the service
               | was along the lines of a real-time game so we either had
               | a very heavy work load or nothing. We stood up EC2
               | instances when games were lice and wound them down after.
               | 
               | We did use Lambda for a few things, mainly APIs that were
               | rarely used or for processing jobs in an event queue.
               | 
               | Serverless has its place for sure, but in my experience
               | it have been _heavily_ over used the last 3-5 years.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | I think the solution to that problem is usually to have
               | fewer and smaller EC2 instances.
               | 
               | And you only need to get utilization up to like 15% to
               | make reserved instances significantly better than lambda.
        
               | jiggawatts wrote:
               | We're migrating over a hundred apps to Azure App Service.
               | 
               | One has an issue with the platform-enforced HTTP timeout
               | maximum values.
               | 
               | I migrated that app back to a VM in an hour.
               | 
               | It turns out that the "integration" for something like
               | App Service (or CloudRun or whatever) is mostly just best
               | practices for any kind of hosting: parameters read from
               | environment variables, immutable binaries with external
               | config, stateless servers, read only web app folders,
               | monitoring with APMs, etc...
               | 
               | Sure, you'll experience lockin if you use Durable
               | Functions or the similar Lambda features... _but no
               | worse_ than any other workflow or business rules
               | platform.
               | 
               | Ask people how easy it is to get off BizTalk or
               | MuleSoft...
        
             | exabrial wrote:
             | Not to naysay, any idea of that includes their own website?
             | Just curious. I don't az itself is the largest aws customer
             | anymore.
        
             | travem wrote:
             | It may not be as popular but they do have Amazon WorkDocs
             | 
             | > Amazon WorkDocs is a document storage, collaboration, and
             | sharing system. Amazon WorkDocs is fully managed, secure,
             | and enterprise scale.
             | 
             | https://docs.aws.amazon.com/workdocs/latest/developerguide/
             | w...
        
               | bobnamob wrote:
               | I weep for Amazon leadership, forcing themselves to use
               | workdocs over quip is self sabotage imo
        
           | Izikiel43 wrote:
           | Afaik, MSFT shows growth in Azure and Office as separate
           | things during earning reports, so the % mentioned before is
           | just Azure, and 31% is huge.
        
           | jsnell wrote:
           | For Azure, all of it. Microsoft clumps Azure together with
           | their server software (e.g. Windows Server, SQL Server)
           | licensing when reporting the revenue, but give more fine-
           | grained information on growth rates. This is the latter. (We
           | also know the Azure business was already massive at $34
           | billion in 2022, since it got revealed during one of
           | Microsoft's ongoing antitrust cases.)
           | 
           | For Google, I'm not aware of a reliable way of estimating the
           | GCP vs. Workspace numbers. But they get asked it during
           | earnings calls, and the answer has always been that the GCP
           | growth is substantially faster than the Workspace growth.
        
           | mr_toad wrote:
           | I've worked with a few organisations that I'd call "late
           | adopters" to the cloud, and it's rare for them to use IAAS or
           | even PAAS. It's all SAAS and serverless, and while they all
           | say they're doing devops it's almost always clickops.
        
           | kreims wrote:
           | I'd suspect there is significant growth of businesses acting
           | as intermediaries for cloud storage. I think that other
           | software providers have also realized that ransoming users
           | data is a great way to extract predictable, hedge-fund-owner-
           | pleasing revenue without performing useful work.
           | 
           | AEC software providers all do this. ProjectWise is worse than
           | owning or renting a plain file server in every way I can
           | imagine, yet every consultant in transportation dutifully
           | cuts Bentley a five-figure check or larger every year so they
           | can hold your project files hostage and pretend to develop
           | software.
           | 
           | I pray for a merciful asteroid to end it all.
        
         | joshdavham wrote:
         | > That doesn't seem compatible with any kind of major cloud
         | repatriation trend.
         | 
         | Agreed. I don't think this is a real trend, at least not right
         | now.
         | 
         | Also, fwiw, I'm really not a fan of these types of articles
         | that identify like a small handful of people or organizations
         | doing something different and calling it a "trend".
        
           | weikju wrote:
           | Submarine like articles trying to create a trend I suppose.
        
         | panrobo wrote:
         | aws and other hyperscalers will keep growing, no doubt. Public
         | cloud adoption is at around 20%. So the new companies that
         | migrate into the cloud will keep the growth going. That doesn't
         | deny the fact that some might be repatriating though.
         | Especially ones that couldn't get the benefits out of the
         | cloud.
        
           | windexh8er wrote:
           | One thing I've seen in every startup I've been in over the
           | last decade is that cloud asset management is relatively
           | poor. Now I'm not certain that enterprise is better or worse,
           | but ultimately when I think back 10+ years ago resources were
           | finite. With that limitation came self-imposed policing of
           | utilization.
           | 
           | Looking at cloud infrastructure today it is very easy for
           | organizations to lose sight on production vs frivolous
           | workloads. I happen to work for an automation company that
           | has cloud infrastructure monitoring deployed such that we get
           | notified about the resources we've deployed and can terminate
           | workloads via ChatOps. Even though I know that everyone in
           | the org is continuously nagged about these workloads I still
           | see tons of resources deployed that I know are doing nothing
           | or could be commingled on an individual instance. But, since
           | the cloud makes it easy to deploy we seem to gravitate
           | towards creating a separation of work efforts by just
           | deploying more.
           | 
           | This is/was rampant in every organization I've been a part of
           | for the last decade with respect to cloud. The percentage of
           | actual required, production workloads in a lot of these types
           | of accounts is, I'd gather, less than 50% in many cases. And
           | so I really do wonder how many organizations are just paying
           | the bill. I would gather the Big cloud providers know this
           | based on utilization metrics and I wonder how much cloud
           | growth is actually stagnant workloads piling up.
        
             | happymellon wrote:
             | The major corps I've worked in that did cloud migrations
             | spent so much time on self-sabotage.
             | 
             | Asset management is always poor, but thats half because
             | control over assets ends up being wrestled away from folks
             | by "DevOps" or "SREs" making K8S operators that just
             | completely fuck up the process. The other half is because
             | they also want "security controls" and ensure that all the
             | devs can't see any billing information. How can I improve
             | costs if I can't tell you the deltas between this month and
             | last?
        
             | icedchai wrote:
             | Yep. Developers leave and when they go, dev resources are
             | often left running. Sometimes, it is whole environments.
             | This junk adds up.
        
         | 1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote:
         | "In parallel, GEICO, one of the largest automotive insurers in
         | the United States, is actively repatriating many workloads from
         | the cloud as part of a comprehensive architectural overhaul."
         | 
         | Is GEICO a major enterprise
        
           | adamc wrote:
           | Per google, more than 30,000 employees, so I'd say
           | enterprise-scale, sure. One of the biggest? No, but not tiny
           | or even medium-sized.
        
             | disgruntledphd2 wrote:
             | Insurance companies tend to have far more capital than
             | their employee numbers would suggest. Particularly Geico,
             | who are famously cheap.
        
               | wbl wrote:
               | "Have" is an interesting word. Much of that capital is
               | covering a bad year in Florida or California.
        
         | PittleyDunkin wrote:
         | You can have multiple trends at once. Veteran cloud users
         | leaving, international business onboarding.
        
           | dhfuuvyvtt wrote:
           | And then there's me: never left the datacenter in the first
           | place.
        
             | hggigg wrote:
             | Wise person. Wish we hadn't. Managed to multiply costs 8x
             | (no joke).
        
               | thrw42A8N wrote:
               | No way that is true if you did it properly. Practically
               | nobody has a workload where this could be true - and it's
               | definitely not a workload smaller than several DCs.
               | 
               | It doesn't work out well if you just create some long
               | lived EC2 instances and call it a day. But that's not
               | really using a cloud, just a VPS - and that has indeed
               | never been cheaper than having your own servers. You need
               | to go cloud native if you want to save money.
        
               | hggigg wrote:
               | It's easy. Lift and shift, then fuck it up by not quite
               | completely migrate everything to numerous badly managed
               | kubernetes clusters. That's what we did.
        
               | kasey_junk wrote:
               | Any egress heavy workload can quickly cost more on cloud
               | than on prem. Especially if you've got consistent egress
               | bandwidth that can be negotiated against.
        
               | thrw42A8N wrote:
               | If it's so heavy that you pay 8x the price of deployment
               | and maintenance of physical servers then you're either
               | very small in which case I'm surprised you don't need the
               | flexibility, or you have many options to make a deal.
               | Don't accept the listed prices.
        
               | kasey_junk wrote:
               | Can I suggest that perhaps I have extensive experience
               | with very large aws deployments and negotiations and
               | stand by what I said.
        
               | thrw42A8N wrote:
               | Sorry but this claim makes me seriously question your
               | experience with this particular regard. I'm an AWS
               | partner and this (negotiating better prices) is what we
               | do every week for our clients. There is no way egress
               | causes your costs to 8x compared to on-premise
               | deployment, even if you pay the listed price, and
               | definitely not if you pick up the phone and call the
               | first partner in registry.
               | 
               | If you said 2 times I'd think it's overestimated but
               | okay, let's not dwell on details. 3x is bullshit and so
               | is the rest.
               | 
               | Perhaps you're comparing apples and oranges - yes, it's
               | possible to do a much less capable on-premise deployment
               | that will obviously cost much less. But if we're
               | comparing comparable - just the internet subscription
               | you'd need in your DC to match the AWS offer in
               | availability, connectivity and stability would make any
               | egress costs pale in comparison. Saying this as someone
               | who used to run a hosting company with 3000 servers
               | before the clouds made it obsolete.
               | 
               | And lastly, yes - paying people to do stuff for you
               | usually costs more than time and materials. If you fuck
               | it up, it's up to you to fix it. If AWS fucks it up,
               | you're compensated for it - part of the price are
               | guarantees that are impossible to get with a DIY
               | deployment. Maybe you don't need it, so choose
               | accordingly - a cheaper hosting provider, or even the
               | less capable on premise. But matching the cloud offer all
               | by yourself is not going to be cheaper than the cloud
               | unless you're on AWS scale.
        
               | theamk wrote:
               | There are so many blogposts about AWS egress being crazy
               | expensive. Here is one: https://www.vantage.sh/blog/cloud
               | flare-r2-aws-s3-comparison . Their example "image
               | hosting" has ~$7K for AWS, vs $36 on R2, mostly due to
               | egress costs.
               | 
               | Yeah, maybe "AWS partner" can give a discount but I bet
               | it'd be 10% for most, or maybe 30% tops. This won't turn
               | $7K into $36.
        
               | thrw42A8N wrote:
               | AWS offers Cloudfront as an alternative to Cloudflare.
               | Serving traffic straight from your S3 bucket is wrong. S3
               | stands for Simple Storage Service and they really mean it
               | - it's a low level object storage service intended for
               | programatic usage that does exactly what you tell it
               | without any caching or anything else, not a web hosting.
               | Add Cloudfront and your costs will instantly lower
               | multiple times. AWS tells you this during S3 bucket
               | creation when you try to make it public, btw - it's not
               | hidden.
               | 
               | Cloudflare networking solution doesn't nearly match - and
               | to be fair, they're not trying - what AWS offers.
               | Cloudflare is a small, focused service; AWS is enterprise
               | universal do everything and stay secure&compliant while
               | doing it solution that has the entire Cloudflare offering
               | included and it's not even a big part of AWS. Don't
               | conflate the two - use whatever is better for your use
               | case, budget/margin, risk profile, reliability
               | requirements etc, but each has some and the price is
               | justified.
        
               | dlisboa wrote:
               | > No way that is true if you did it properly.
               | 
               | It's quite easier to mess up in a hyperscaling cloud
               | because it's extremely forgiving. In a different setting
               | you wouldn't be able to make as many mistakes and would
               | have to stop the world and fix the issue.
        
             | tomcam wrote:
             | I assume you just run everything on prem and have a high
             | speed up/down connection to the Net? Do you have some kind
             | of AWS/Heroku/Azure -type thing running locally or just use
             | something like Apache or what?
        
           | threeseed wrote:
           | But you have provided zero evidence for any of it.
        
         | andrewstuart wrote:
         | 37 Signals has enterprise scale influence in some software
         | development circles.I'm no fan of them but they have it right
         | on this one.
         | 
         | Revolutions cannot start huge, they must start small.
        
         | ksec wrote:
         | 37signals spends more than $3M a year on cloud. So while it
         | definitely isn't a _major_ enterprise. It is also a lot more
         | than a a few dozen servers.
         | 
         | I am not anti-cloud and pro cloud. My major problem with the
         | new trend is that a lot of people are basically rediscovering
         | pre "Cloud" era. which is VPS, Dedicated server and Colocation.
         | And people are suggesting Hetzner or OVH or many other players
         | are equivalent to AWS. While I dont disagree AWS is charging a
         | lot for their offering, putting AWS to other services isn't
         | even a valid comparison.
         | 
         | Completely ignoring the basics such as Server / CPU / RAM / SSD
         | quality. Network quality such as interconnect, redundancy, as
         | well as Data Center quality. If you rally want to do simple
         | price and spec comparison you might as well go to Lowendbox to
         | find a low cost VPS which some people have been doing since
         | 2008.
         | 
         | I really wish there is a middle ground somewhere before using
         | Hyperscalers. Both DO / Linode couldn't reach a larger scale.
         | Hetzner is expanding their Cloud offering only and no dedicated
         | outside EU.
        
           | ceejayoz wrote:
           | > 37signals spends more than $3M a year on cloud.
           | 
           | Isn't most of that just S3 storage/bandwidth?
        
             | jgalt212 wrote:
             | If so, they should move to R2.
        
           | RateMyPE wrote:
           | Yep, Hetzner, OVH or even DO aren't even close to offering
           | what AWS offers. Once you start exploring all the things they
           | have to offer you understand why so many large companies use
           | hyperscalers.
           | 
           | Although to be fair, most hobbyists only need basic services
           | like cloud servers/VMs, and hyperscalers like AWS are an
           | awful deal compared to other options if you only need compute
           | + storage + bandwidth. You don't need to use S3, Lambdas and
           | Cloudfront to host a personal blog, a simple VPS will be more
           | than enough.
           | 
           | It feels like most devs nowadays prefer using services that
           | abstract away the infrastructure, at the cost of not
           | developing SysOps skills, so I don't see a future where the
           | Cloud is going to lose relevance.
        
             | littlestymaar wrote:
             | > you understand why so many large companies use
             | hyperscalers.
             | 
             | While there are valid use-case where you get value from the
             | extra services the hyperscaller are providing, most of the
             | time people go for AWS "because everybody does it" or
             | because the choice was made by a consulting company that
             | doesn't pay the final cloud bill and is optimizing their
             | own added value at the expenses of the customer's one.
             | 
             | I've been doing freelance work for 7 years now for roughly
             | two dozens if companies of various size, and I can't tell
             | you how many massively underused AWS / Azure VPS I've seen,
             | but it's more than half the cloud bills of the said
             | companies (or division for big companies since I obviously
             | only had the vision on the division I worked for and not
             | the whole company).
        
             | mbreese wrote:
             | _> Hetzner, OVH or even DO aren 't even close to offering
             | what AWS offers_
             | 
             | But I think the argument is - do they need to be? How much
             | of the services of AWS (Google/azure/etc) are really needed
             | by the majority of customers?
             | 
             | For companies that need hyperscaling services, I get it.
             | There are definite benefits to the cloud when operating at
             | extremes (auto scaling up and down). But for the majority
             | of workloads, I think you could be well served by a more
             | barebones offering.
        
               | itake wrote:
               | > are really needed by the majority of customers?
               | 
               | Some companies want the space to grow into it. At my job,
               | we just started getting into video decoding. AWS has
               | elastic video processing services. Where as DO would cost
               | way more to setup those services on our own.
        
             | nottorp wrote:
             | > Yep, Hetzner, OVH or even DO aren't even close to
             | offering what AWS offers.
             | 
             | I think it was mentioned in the article what AWS offers.
             | Lock-in.
        
           | kredd wrote:
           | I totally agree, but I've also worked on a project with 0
           | customers spending about $2M/year on AWS, and there was
           | absolutely zero incentive from the stakeholders to reduce the
           | cost. There's a certain disconnect between boots on the
           | ground engineers, and decision makers when it comes to infra
           | management.
        
           | dumbledoren wrote:
           | > Server / CPU / RAM / SSD quality
           | 
           | I had no issues with Hetzner's component and especially
           | network quality for a decade now. Before that, yeah, there
           | could be some hiccups and issues. But they stopped being
           | issues a long time ago. And really, what hardware issues do
           | you expect on this hardware:
           | 
           | https://www.hetzner.com/dedicated-
           | rootserver/brands/matrix-d...
        
           | roncesvalles wrote:
           | My opinion from analyzing the 37signals cloud offboard case
           | is that it shouldn't have been done.
           | 
           | They didn't save a whole lot of money from it (they aren't
           | spending a whole lot on it anyway), and now their business
           | ever so slightly loses focus. Not to mention, as you said,
           | the quality aspects. Cloud gives you many things "for free"
           | (like local disk RAID, network and power redundancy,
           | datacenter compliance, in-transit and on-disk encryption,
           | optimized OS images, overall network security, controls
           | around what their employees can do - that $5/month lowendbox
           | provider from Romania is almost certainly logging into your
           | VM and going through your files) which you lose when going to
           | a "pre-cloud" provider.
        
             | blibble wrote:
             | there's a mile of difference between Romanian lowendbox.com
             | and renting a cage in, say, an equinix datacentre
             | 
             | if this approach to DC compliance/security/redundancy is
             | good enough for the world's financial services industry
             | then it's probably good enough for everyone else too
             | 
             | (but yes, then only saves about 90% of the cost instead of
             | 95%)
        
         | everdrive wrote:
         | I sincerely doubt 37 signals has "a few dozen servers." Every
         | company I've been in has a huge, sprawling cloud and that no
         | one has governance over. New instances are stood up by
         | individual teams in order to avoid bureaucratic delay, and
         | these propagate indefinitely.
        
       | switch007 wrote:
       | "Major organizations like 37signals and GEICO". Sorry, what?
       | Citing two companies? And how does a $37bn company compare to
       | 37signals?
       | 
       | Such an odd pair of companies to choose. Is DHH friends with the
       | author?
       | 
       | I'd be more interested in statistics about total cloud vs onprem
       | spend across all companies, over time, to support assertion that
       | "companies are ditching the cloud"
       | 
       | A very poor article
        
         | discodave wrote:
         | The statistics can be found in the public earnings of AWS vs
         | the companies that would get paid for on-prem workloads
         | (Equinix, Dell/HP/IBM, Intel etc).
        
         | panrobo wrote:
         | I don't think the article concludes that companies are ditching
         | the cloud.. :)
        
         | openplatypus wrote:
         | It is not reputable article. Click bait.
        
       | theginger wrote:
       | Almost any story about cloud repatriation is a story about a
       | failure of the market to act competitively rather than someone
       | actually able to do it for less money than the cloud providers
       | can. The big providers margins are crazy, like over 50% which is
       | normal for a software / service business but they are essentially
       | hardware businesses.
        
       | cyberax wrote:
       | The article is incredibly thin on details.
       | 
       | In my experience, it comes down to two factors:
       | 
       | 1. Egress cost. Cloud hosting providers have absolutely insane
       | egress pricing. It's beyond stupid at this point, if you want to
       | host anything bandwidth-intensive.
       | 
       | 2. Storage pricing.
        
         | hylaride wrote:
         | "Storage is cheap, but moving it ain't" is a quote a former co-
         | worker frequently liked to remind people. The quote applied at
         | the low level (eg between CPUs and their caches) all the way up
         | to networking.
         | 
         | Anyways, cloud provider egress costs can be _ridiculous_.
         | Amazon charges for egress transfer out of AWS, then quite a bit
         | for NAT gateway transfer, and AWS network firewall on top of
         | that (we dropped the firewall and moved our bulk traffic to a
         | specific outer subnet because of that). Oh, and you can 't give
         | many serverless products (eg lambda) elastic IPs, so out the
         | NAT gateway it goes...
         | 
         | So. Frustrating.
        
       | discodave wrote:
       | Meanwhile, from Q3 Amazon earnings:
       | 
       | * AWS segment sales increased 19% year-over-year to $27.5
       | billion.
       | 
       | That means AWS brought in $4.3 BILLION more dollars in Q3 2024 vs
       | 2023.
       | 
       | That's a huge amount of incremental revenue growth. If the net
       | movement of workloads were out of the cloud, then it would have
       | to show up in the results of Intel / TSMC / Equinix et. al.
       | 
       | I just took a look, and Equinix quarterly revenue is $2.1B.
        
         | deely3 wrote:
         | Oh, correlation.
        
         | hackit2 wrote:
         | Here people like arguing their opinions as if they're facts
         | instead of using evidence (public proof) to support their
         | argument.
        
       | kjellsbells wrote:
       | Kjell's Law: the cost of a platform eventually exceeds the cost
       | of the one it replaced. But each cost is in a different budget.
       | 
       | We seem to have replaced cooling and power and a grumpy sysadmin
       | with storage and architects and unhappy developers.
        
         | gtirloni wrote:
         | We had happy developers before? Amazing.
        
           | 1oooqooq wrote:
           | without the grumpy sysadmin they jump out more.
        
           | slyall wrote:
           | They are Grumpy because now they are doing Sysadmin stuff
        
         | jimt1234 wrote:
         | I've never worked in a data center that did cooling and power
         | correctly. Everyone thinks they're doing it right, and then
         | street power gets cut - there's significant impact, ops teams
         | scramble to contain, and finally there's the finger-pointing.
        
           | w0m wrote:
           | I mean; it's impossible to plan for _everything_ , and I'd
           | argue that if you actually did plan for everything; it would
           | be so extraordinarily overbuilt that it couldn't be
           | considered 'correct'.
        
           | danudey wrote:
           | > then street power gets cut
           | 
           | Or the electrician doing maintenance on the backup generator
           | doesn't properly connect the bypass and no one notices until
           | he disconnects the generator and the entire DC instantly goes
           | quiet.
           | 
           | Or your DC provisions rack space without knowing which
           | servers are redundant with which other servers, and suddenly
           | when two services go from 10% CPU use to 100% CPU across ten
           | servers the breaker for that circuit gives up entirely and
           | takes down your entire business.
        
           | doubled112 wrote:
           | The colo I'm used to has survived multiple switch overs to
           | backup and then to diesel generators without a blip that I
           | could detect.
           | 
           | I say "I'm used to" because having things there has spanned
           | more than one job.
           | 
           | One power outage was days to a week. Don't recall exactly.
           | 
           | It's possible to do it right.
        
             | SoftTalker wrote:
             | Yes it's possible. But it's not cheap. If you buy a bunch
             | of UPS and a few generators (you need more than one, in
             | case it doesn't start) and don't maintain them regularly
             | and test them regularly that's when you get some bad
             | surprises.
        
           | jms wrote:
           | The first time we tested cutting the power back in the day,
           | the backup generator didn't fire! Turns out someone had
           | pushed the big red stop button, which remains pushed in until
           | reset.
           | 
           | That would have been a major problem if we'd had a nighttime
           | power outage.
           | 
           | After that we ran regular switchover testing :)
           | 
           | The other time we ran into trouble was after someone drove a
           | car into the local power substation. Our systems all ran fine
           | for the immediate outage, but the power company's short term
           | fix was to re-route power, which caused our voltage to be low
           | enough for our UPS batteries to slowly drain without tripping
           | over to the generator.
           | 
           | That was a week or two of manually pumping diesel into the
           | generator tank so we could keep the UPS batteries topped up.
        
           | roydivision wrote:
           | I have, and least power. I worked in a DC with 4 very large
           | diesel generators, each backed up by a multi-ton flywheel
           | that managed the transition between a power cut and the
           | generators taking over.
           | 
           | Area wide power cut, winter afternoon so it was already
           | getting dark. The two signs I knew there was something wrong
           | were that all the lights went out outside, ie other
           | businesses, street lighting etc. And my internet connection
           | stopped working. Nothing else in the DC was affected. Even
           | the elevator was working.
        
             | tomcam wrote:
             | Amazing story, and now the flywheel is living rent free in
             | a steampunk-inspired corner of my brain. What are these
             | called so I can look them up on the net? Like this maybe?
             | 
             | https://www.torus.co/torus-flywheel
        
               | viraptor wrote:
               | They're chonky devices which were not really off-the-
               | shelf until the last decade, as far as I know. There's
               | very few images of them, but a smaller one looks like
               | this: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/03/14/pilot-
               | project-for-fly...
        
               | tomcam wrote:
               | Very cool. Somehow I missed the idea of flywheels used to
               | store energy. I assumed one that small would peter out in
               | seconds.
        
               | roydivision wrote:
               | These were huge. In fact iirc the power that came into
               | the building spun them, and the DC ran off the resultant
               | generated electricity. So the risk at cutover is minimal,
               | there is in fact no loss of electricity unless the wheel
               | drops below the required revs.
               | 
               | One of these units blew at one point. We had 4 and only
               | needed two running, so no big deal. The company who
               | managed the whole thing (Swiss) came to replace it.
               | Amazing job, they had to put it on small rollers, like
               | industrial roller skates, then embed hooks in the walls
               | at each corridor junction, and slowly winch the thing
               | along, it was like watching the minute hand of a clock.
               | 
               | Then the whole process in reverse to bring in the new
               | one. Was fascinating to watch. The guy in charge was a
               | giant, built like a brick outhouse. They knew their
               | stuff.
        
               | tomcam wrote:
               | That whole story is clutch. Thanks a ton.
        
       | chromanoid wrote:
       | I prefer this https://blogs.idc.com/2024/10/28/storm-clouds-
       | ahead-missed-e... more nuanced article.
       | 
       | I can see how AI workloads makes clouds look expensive.
        
       | asdasdsddd wrote:
       | > "Ten years into that journey, GEICO still hadn't migrated
       | everything to the cloud, their bills went up 2.5x, and their
       | reliability challenges went up quite a lot too."
       | 
       | yes this would make cloud cost a lot without any of the benefits
       | lol
        
       | tschellenbach wrote:
       | Chat, feeds and moderation run on AWS for us. Video on the other
       | hand is bandwidth intensive. So we run the coordinator infra on
       | AWS, but the SFU edge network on many different providers.
       | 
       | I think the cloud is good for some things, and not so great for
       | others. S3 is fairly cost effective. RDS is expensive, bandwidth
       | is crazy etc.
       | 
       | (5M a year spend on AWS atm.)
        
       | kuon wrote:
       | You can have a 100Gb uplink on a dedicated fibre for less than
       | 1000$/month now. Which is insanely less than cloud bandwidth. Of
       | course there are tons of other costs, but that alone can suffice
       | to justify moving out of the cloud for bandwidth intensive app.
        
         | Salgat wrote:
         | We went to cloud because 1) we only need 3 infra guys to run
         | our entire platform and 2) we can trivially scale up or down as
         | needed. The first saves us hundreds of thousands in skilled
         | labor and the second lets us take on new customers with
         | thousands of agents in a matter of days without having to
         | provision in advance.
        
           | packetlost wrote:
           | 1) You may more than pay for that labor in cloud costs, but
           | you can also pretty easily operate rented dedicated hardware
           | with a 3-man team if they know how to do it, the tools to
           | scale are there they're just _different._
           | 
           | 2) I don't know what your setup looks like, but renting a
           | dedicated server off of Hetzner takes a few minutes, maybe
           | hours at most.
           | 
           | My personal opinion is that most workloads that have a load
           | balancer _anyways_ would be best suited to a mix of dedicated
           | /owned infrastructure for baseline operation and dynamic
           | scaling to a cloud for burst. The downsides to that approach
           | are it requires all of skillset A (systems administration,
           | devops) and some amount of skillset B (public cloud), and the
           | networking constraints can be challenging depending on how
           | state is managed.
        
             | merb wrote:
             | With 3 people it's basically impossible to build a ha
             | storage solution that can scale to a certain amount - it's
             | also impossible to keep that maintained.
        
               | m1keil wrote:
               | Can you give a ballpark figure of what scale you have in
               | mind?
        
             | Salgat wrote:
             | Just to clarify, AWS lets you provision bare-metal too if
             | your goal is to just rent hardware someone else is
             | maintaining. And things like trivially distributing load
             | and storage across multiple datacenters/regions is another
             | big bonus for us.
        
               | dumbledoren wrote:
               | Hetzner has all of that. And cloud. Its just that their
               | dedicated server offerings are SO attractive that people
               | keep mentioning that. Otherwise its not like their cloud
               | offering is also very attractive.
        
               | packetlost wrote:
               | Correct, but most of your cost in public clouds is in
               | bandwidth, not server rental. To my knowledge, AWS also
               | charges a hefty premium for their dedicated servers
               | compared to competitors.
        
         | gwbas1c wrote:
         | Running a service takes more than a fat pipe. You need to
         | handle power outages, need redundant internet connections, ect,
         | ect.
        
           | kuon wrote:
           | Yes, but for example a 10Gbit/s pipe is about 3PB of transfer
           | capacity per month which is about 150 000$/month in S3
           | traffic. A 40kW UPS which can handle about 2 racks (2x42U) of
           | high density servers, with a generator cost about 50k$. A
           | redundant link with your own AS so you can BGP should cost
           | about 5k$ per month (at least here in switzerland).
           | 
           | Of course it really depends on the application, but if you
           | host something like a streaming video service where bandwidth
           | is the main factor, you can quickly reach a point where self
           | hosting is cheaper.
        
             | viraptor wrote:
             | 10Gbps is one "teen with a stolen credit card" DDoS event
             | away from being unusable. If you're running a big service
             | that someone may dislike, that's really not enough.
        
               | bobdvb wrote:
               | That's why you put your services behind a CDN, even if
               | it's not cacheable traffic. Then you can rate limit
               | what's coming to you.
               | 
               | With the cloud, that DDoS can bankrupt you by causing you
               | unconstrained bills instead.
        
               | viraptor wrote:
               | Oh definitely. I would've been more clear - I meant: you
               | still can't stop there and you'll need a third-party to
               | take the traffic with either solution.
        
               | maccard wrote:
               | As you've already alluded to elsewhere though - you host
               | it behind a cdn or something. A single ec2 instance is
               | just as vulnerable to a teen with a stolen credit card
               | attack.
        
         | nisa wrote:
         | Just curious where do you get 100Gb with Internet transit and
         | dedicated fiber for 1000$/month? I'm in a small town in eastern
         | Germany and looked for a simple Gigabit fiber access for our
         | office without any bandwidth guarantees and it's 1000EUR/month
         | for 1Gb here with the most budget provider but with some
         | nebulous bandwidth guarantees. I'm not talking about
         | residential fiber that also very expensive after a certain
         | threshold. I know there is init7 in Switzerland but it's the
         | exception to the rule in Europe it seems. Getting a fast fiber
         | and good transit is still expensive?
        
           | kuon wrote:
           | I'm in Switzerland, so maybe I am biased, I have 10Gbit/s
           | dedicated on a 100Gbit/s link for about 600$/month. In
           | practice I have 25Gbit/s with most datacenters in europe,
           | 100Gbit/s with some that are close (OVH, Hetzner), and
           | 10Gbit/s with the rest of the world.
        
             | JackSlateur wrote:
             | Is this a home connection ?
        
               | kuon wrote:
               | No, dedicated business fiber from sunrise.
        
               | JackSlateur wrote:
               | Sorry, I should have been more specific: does this offer
               | stands if I need 200G ? Is the bandwith garanteed (as-in:
               | I can use it all day long, as would a datacenter do) or
               | is it burst-only (so its targets are homes and offices) ?
               | 
               | I expect the latter
        
         | ttt3ts wrote:
         | Yea, I call BS on 100Gb uplink for $1000. I have racked a lot
         | of servers at different data centers. No way.
        
           | kuon wrote:
           | I am in Switzerland where you have 25Gbit/s for about
           | 70$/month so I understand that this might be an exception.
           | But even if it is 10 000$/month, it is still widely cheaper
           | than cloud bandwidth.
           | 
           | https://www.init7.net/en/
        
             | silvestrov wrote:
             | Business pricelist as PDF:
             | https://www.init7.net/de/angebot/business-
             | internet/business_...
             | 
             | It's interesting as it seperately lists price for 24x7
             | support.
             | 
             | CHF 111 [?] $129
        
             | ttt3ts wrote:
             | If you don't mind me asking, to where? That is, what uplink
             | do you see to your nearest AWS or gcloud? In the US,
             | advertised residential speeds don't nessarly translate to
             | realized gains. Just pushes the bottle neck to the ISP.
             | 
             | Agreed that either way it is way cheaper than cloud
             | bandwidth.
        
       | karmakaze wrote:
       | It's a short simple post that comes down to this:
       | 
       | > Weekly explains that "just running legacy applications in the
       | cloud is prohibitively expensive," highlighting how lift-and-
       | shift approaches often fail to deliver expected benefits.
       | 
       | Yes, if you have a mature business without active development at
       | a scale where compute/storage costs is a substantial accounting
       | line item, then it makes sense to run on hardware that doesn't
       | have the flexibility and cost of the cloud.
       | 
       | There is an in-between that makes much more sense for most
       | though. Running on provisioned bare metal. Lots of providers
       | offer this as a better performance/price option where you don't
       | have to deal with provisioning hardware but do everything else
       | from the OS+maintenance and up.
       | 
       | At one company we used large bare-metal machine instances
       | provisioned for stable parts of the application architecture
       | (e.g. database and webapp instances) and the cloud for new
       | development where it made sense to leverage capabilities, e.g.
       | DynamoDB with cross-region replication.
        
         | hylaride wrote:
         | I can't tell you how often I've run into cloud deployments that
         | were lift-and-shifts, pushed on by bean counters wanting OPEX
         | instead of CAPEX. They then run into actual cashflow expenses,
         | less stability, more complex security (now you get IAM on top
         | of basic networking!), and the ability for one underpaid person
         | to easily do a lot of damage - because you're certainly not
         | going to hire top-tier cloud talent - these are bean counters
         | running things after all.
         | 
         | It makes it really clear why you so many data leaks via badly
         | configured s3 buckets of dynamo tables...
        
           | maccard wrote:
           | It's a bit naive to think that this sort of an org went from
           | hiring top tier sysadmin staff to bottom of the barrel
           | developers for cloud dev. It's likely they were a thundering
           | mess when they managed their own hardware too.
        
         | coredog64 wrote:
         | Very large mature businesses that don't see IT as a core
         | function have probably outsourced management to a third party.
         | There's not much daylight between that third party's margin and
         | just paying a hyperscaler.
        
       | teyc wrote:
       | What I was surprised to find in some big orgs is the processes
       | have not evolved to be cloud first. There is lack of maturity,
       | still a chain of committees, approvals, and manual processes;
       | risk management still treats the services as a giant intranet,
       | deployments are not scripted, ad hoc designs. Resources are
       | placed in vnets so that they resemble a system they already know,
       | and comes with all the associated risks.
        
         | ElevenLathe wrote:
         | This is the reality IME. I'm currently in an org that has been
         | "in the cloud" for over ten years but is only now architecting
         | (some) new projects in a cloud-first way. Meanwhile there is
         | big pressure to get out of our rented cages so there is even
         | more lift-and-shift migration happening. My guess is that we
         | eat roughly 5x as much compute as we would need with proper
         | scaling, and paying cloud prices for almost all of it.
        
         | eleveriven wrote:
         | Yep transition to cloud-first is still such a challenge for
         | many big organizations
        
           | Agingcoder wrote:
           | Any large scale transition actually !
        
             | teyc wrote:
             | The transition has to be accompanied by a revamp of all the
             | technical processes associated with IT provisioning, which
             | is too much and too risky to do.
        
       | gtirloni wrote:
       | They will want cloud-like APIs on-premises and most will
       | implement OpenStack. The second wave of migrations to the cloud
       | will be even quicker for these companies making their way back to
       | on premises.
        
       | badgersnake wrote:
       | It's the same old MBA cycle we had with onshoring / offshoring.
       | Everyone wants to build their resume so they have to change
       | things.
       | 
       | In this cycle a new MBA comes in wants to make an impact so does
       | a cloud transition. Then they move on and the next guy comes in,
       | wants to make an impact so moves things back in house. Repeat
       | until some new fad comes along.
        
       | WaitWaitWha wrote:
       | This is partially the result of cloud providers and partially
       | business leadership. They, for whatever reason, insufficiently
       | educated their clients on migration requirements. Lift & shift
       | from on-premises to cloud only work for emergency. The shifted
       | resources must be converted to cloud stack, or the cost will be
       | multiples of on-prem costs. Business leadership was (is?)
       | ignoring IT teams screaming of the problem with lift & shift.
       | 
       | Now, businesses shifting back to on-prem because they are _still_
       | uneducated on how to make cloud useful. They will just shift all
       | non-core activities to XaaS vendors, reducing their own cloud
       | managed solutions.
       | 
       | Source: dealing with multiple non-software, tech firms that are
       | doing just that, shifting own things back to on-prem, non-core
       | resources to XaaS.
        
         | Agingcoder wrote:
         | I keep reading ' Lift and shift is bad ' on HN - what is the
         | opposite of lift and shift ? ( 'cloud native ' does not mean
         | much to me). Is it that instead of oracle running on a rented
         | vm you use whatever db your cloud provider is selling you, you
         | move your monolith to a service oriented architecture running
         | in k8s, etc ?
        
           | tg180 wrote:
           | In simple terms, yes.
           | 
           | The term "native" refers to adopting the vendor's technology
           | stack, which typically includes managed data stores,
           | containerized microservices, serverless functions, and
           | immutable infrastructure.
        
             | Agingcoder wrote:
             | Thanks.
             | 
             | I work for a very large org, and cloud benefits are not
             | obvious to me ( ie we're large enough to absorb the cost of
             | a team managing k8s for everyone, another team managing our
             | own data centers around the world etc ).
             | 
             | I view cloud as mutualizing costs and expertise with other
             | people ( engineers and infra), but adding a very hefty
             | margin on top of it, along with vendor lockin.
             | 
             | If you're big enough to mutualize internally, or don't need
             | some of the specific ultra scale cloud products, it's not
             | an obvious fit to me ( in particular , you don't want to
             | pay the margin )
             | 
             | I understand that for a significant chunk of people it's
             | useful provided that they use as many mutualizing levers as
             | possible which is what going native is about.
             | 
             | Is my understanding correct ?
        
               | tg180 wrote:
               | Yes, the profit margin for cloud providers is very real--
               | and quite costly.
               | 
               | I think one point that's often overlooked is the
               | knowledge gap between the engineers at cloud providers
               | (such as systems, platform, or site reliability
               | engineers) and those that an individual company, even a
               | large one, is able to hire.
               | 
               | This gap is a key reason why some companies are willing--
               | or even forced--to pay the premium.
               | 
               | If average or mediocre management skills and a moderately
               | complex tech stack are sufficient, then on-premise can
               | still be the most cost-effective choice today.
        
           | JackSlateur wrote:
           | lift & shift = move your instances, which are expensive and
           | not at all competitive
           | 
           | cloud native = use more serverless products (pay as you go
           | with no base price)
           | 
           | For instance, one could implement internal DNS using instance
           | which run bind, and connect everything through some VPC, and
           | put a load balancer in front of the instances. One could also
           | rework its DNS architecture and use route53, with private
           | hosted zones associated with all the appropriate VPCs
           | 
           | Another real example: one could have hundreds of instance
           | running gitlab runners, running all day, waiting for some job
           | to do. One could put those gitlab runners into an autoscaled
           | kubernetes, where nodes are added when there are lots of
           | jobs, and deleted afterwards. One could even run the gitlab
           | runners on Fargate, where a pod is created for each job, to
           | run that job and then exit. No job = no pod = no money spent.
           | 
           | Of course, some work is required to extract the best value of
           | cloud providers. If you use only instances, well, surprise:
           | it costs a lot, and you still have to manage lots of stuff.
        
             | maccard wrote:
             | I ran our CI on fargate at my last job. It was a mess. The
             | time from api request for an instance to it being ready to
             | handle a job was minutes. It was about 50x slower than
             | running on a mid range laptop that I occasionally used for
             | development, and in order to work around that we kept hot
             | EBS volumes of caches around (which cost $$$$ and a decent
             | amount of developer time).
             | 
             | Just before I left I was investigating using hetzner
             | instead - our compute bill would have been about 15%
             | cheaper, we would have had no cache storage costs (which
             | was about 5x our compute costs), and the builds would have
             | finished before fargate had processed the request.
             | 
             | Our numbers were small fry, but we spent more on that CI
             | system than we did on every other part of our infra
             | combined.
        
             | kjellsbells wrote:
             | Of course, while this move to cloud native, along the path
             | from IaaS to PaaS to SaaS, saves money on one dimension, it
             | also binds the customer more and more immovably to the
             | cloud vendor...
        
           | jedberg wrote:
           | The opposite of lift and shift is rearchitecting for auto-
           | scaling. Pretty much every price advantage comes from using
           | the fact that the cloud provider absorbs the cost of idle
           | resources instead of you.
           | 
           | So you either adopt serverless patterns (the kind of
           | serverless that means scale to zero and pay nothing when you
           | do) or you adopt auto-scaling, where you shut down instances
           | when traffic is lower, to minimize idle time. Or both.
        
       | jakupovic wrote:
       | Serious businesses are not doing this.
        
       | bsaul wrote:
       | Recently, i've come to realize one real use of those clouds was
       | to provide a good US-EU network connection. If you want to
       | provide both continent users with correct bandwidth to your
       | service, you have no choice but to have them connect to a
       | datacenter on their own continent. Public data transit across the
       | atlantic is simply miserable.
       | 
       | Then, because they probably have private atlantic cables, you can
       | replicate at good reliable speed.
        
       | efitz wrote:
       | There are certain workloads that have never been really
       | economical to run in cloud. Cloud economics is based on multi-
       | tenancy, eg if you have a lot of hardware that is sitting idle a
       | lot of the time, then cloud may be economical for you as the
       | cloud provider can share it between you and others.
       | 
       | Cloud is also good for episodic use of expensive exotic systems
       | like HPC and GPU fleets, if you don't need them all the time- I
       | call this serial multi-tenancy.
       | 
       | Cloud is not economical for massive storage, especially if you're
       | not willing to use backup solutions and reduced availability. For
       | example, AWS S3 default keeps multiple copies of uploaded data;
       | this is not comparable to typical on-premises RAID 1 or RAID 3.
       | You can save money with reduced redundancy storage but then you
       | have to take on more of the reliability burden. Likewise compute
       | is cheap if you're buying multi-tenant instances, but if you want
       | dedicated instances or bare metal, then the economics aren't
       | nearly as attractive.
       | 
       | Cloud is also good for experimentation and rapid development -
       | it's so much faster to click a few buttons than to go through the
       | hardware acquisition processes at many enterprises.
       | 
       | The companies that regret cloud due to financial concerns usually
       | make two mistakes.
       | 
       | First, as noted above, they pay for premium services that are not
       | directly comparable to on-prem, or they use workloads in cloud
       | that are not cloud economical, or both.
       | 
       | Second, they don't constrain random usage enough. It is super
       | easy for a developer doing some testing to spin up thousands of
       | dollars of bill. And it's even worse if they leave it at the end
       | of the day and go home- it's still racking up hourly usage. And
       | it's downright ugly if they forget it and move on to something
       | else. You have to be super disciplined to not spin up more than
       | you need and turn it off as soon as you're done with it.
        
         | cyberax wrote:
         | > but if you want dedicated instances or bare metal
         | 
         | Multitenant instances on AWS statically partition the hardware
         | (CPU, RAM, network), so tenants don't really share all that
         | much. Memory bandwidth is probably the only really affected
         | resource.
         | 
         | > Second, they don't constrain random usage enough.
         | 
         | AWS now has billing alerts with per-hour resolution and
         | automatic anomaly detection. There are third-party tools that
         | do the same.
        
           | efitz wrote:
           | > Multitenant instances on AWS statically partition the
           | hardware (CPU, RAM, network), so tenants don't really share
           | all that much.
           | 
           | You are missing several points:
           | 
           | First, density. Cloud providers have huge machines that can
           | run lots of VMs, and AWS in particular uses hardware
           | ("Nitro") for hypervisor functionality so they have very low
           | overhead.
           | 
           | Cloud providers also don't do "hardware" partitioning for
           | many instance types. AWS sells "VCPUs" as the capacity unit;
           | this is not necessarily a core, it may be time on a core.
           | 
           | Cloud providers can also over-provision; like airlines can
           | sell more seats than exist on a plane, cloud providers can
           | sell more VCPUs than cores on a machine, assuming (correctly)
           | that the vast majority of instances will be idle most of the
           | time, and they can manage noisy neighbors via live migration.
           | 
           | And lots of other more esoteric stuff.
        
             | cyberax wrote:
             | > Cloud providers can also over-provision
             | 
             | But they don't. AWS overprovisions only on T-type instances
             | (T3,T4,T5). The rest of the instance types don't share
             | cores or memory between tenants.
             | 
             | I know, I worked with the actual AWS hardware at Amazon :)
             | AWS engineers have always been pretty paranoid about
             | security, so they limit the hardware sharing between
             | tenants as much as possible. For example, AWS had been
             | strictly limiting hyperthreading and cache sharing even
             | before the SPECTRE/Meltdown.
             | 
             | AWS doesn't actually charge any premium for the bare metal
             | instance types (the ones with ".metal" in the name). They
             | just cost a lot because they are usually subdivided into
             | many individual VMs.
             | 
             | For example, c6g.metal is $2.1760 per hour, and
             | c6g.16xlarge is the same $2.1760. c6g.4xlarge is $0.5440
             | 
             | > And lots of other more esoteric stuff.
             | 
             | Not really. They had some plans for more esoteric stuff,
             | but anything more complicated than EC2 Spot does not really
             | have a market demand.
             | 
             | Customers prefer stability. EC2 and other foundational
             | services like EBS and VPC are carefully designed to stay
             | stable if the AWS control plane malfunctions ("static
             | stability").
        
         | teyc wrote:
         | Most enterprises on prem already run VMware for virtualisation,
         | it is the antiquated way of provisioning that affects how slow
         | it is to spin something up on prem. And frequently these
         | antiquated practices are carried to the cloud, negating any
         | benefit.
        
           | efitz wrote:
           | > And frequently these antiquated practices are carried to
           | the cloud, negating any benefit.
           | 
           | I should have brought that up too. Airlifting your stuff to
           | the cloud and expecting cloud to run like your data center is
           | a way to set yourself up for disappointment and expense. The
           | cloud is something very different than your on-premise
           | datacenter and many things that make sense on prem, do not
           | make sense in cloud.
        
         | coredog64 wrote:
         | S3 has two more cost saving dimensions: How long will you
         | commit to storing these exact bytes and how long are you
         | willing to wait to get them. Either of those will allow you to
         | reduce S3 costs without having to chance data loss due to AZ
         | failure.
        
       | denkmoon wrote:
       | It doesn't seem to say in the article and it's not really
       | discussed in these "LEAVING THE CLOUDS!!" articles, but what are
       | these orgs doing for on-prem? Given the broadcom acquisition of
       | vmware, rebuilding massive vsphere clusters like it's 2010
       | doesn't seem like a good long term play. Are they moving to
       | kubernetes? Some other hypervisor?
        
         | lemme_tell_ya wrote:
         | Possibly some amount of Triton and Oxide
        
         | weikju wrote:
         | At least in the case of 37signals, they went with colocated
         | servers, some type of KVM and their own tool, Kamal, for
         | containerized deployments without the complexity of kubernetes.
         | 
         | You can find one post here with many links at the bottom
         | 
         | https://basecamp.com/cloud-exit
        
       | justinko wrote:
       | I think non-cloud is the new monolith, which is fantastic.
        
       | langsoul-com wrote:
       | All large orgs start running their own cloud infra at some point.
       | So this has been a case for very long.
       | 
       | Cloud is great until you have Sooooo much money and the running
       | costs is too damn high.
        
       | indulona wrote:
       | cloud was supposed to be the cheap one stop shop where sheer
       | numbers make overall prices low. but instead, they priced
       | themselves out of existence. slowly, but surely. when you can run
       | any offered services on your own for cheaper, then you know their
       | entire business model is based on entrapment and and vendor lock-
       | in, making leaving them engineering impossibility.
        
       | 0xbadcafebee wrote:
       | GEICO is moving away from the cloud because their IT is a joke.
       | They had a horrible on-prem infrastructure, so they moved to the
       | cloud not knowing how, and they made the same mistakes in the
       | cloud as on-prem, plus the usual mistakes every cloud migration
       | runs into. They are moving away from the cloud because their new
       | VP's entire career is focused on running her own hardware. What
       | we know about their new setup is absolutely bonkers (like,
       | K8s-on-OpenStack-on-K8s bonkers). Look to them for what _not_ to
       | do.
       | 
       | 37signals is like the poster child for NIH syndrome. They keep
       | touting cost savings as the reason for the move, but from what I
       | have gathered, they basically did nothing to save cost in the
       | cloud. It is trivial to save 75% off AWS's list price. They will
       | even walk you through it, they literally want you to save money.
       | That, plus using specific tech in specific ways, allows you to
       | reap major benefits of modern designs while reducing cost more.
       | 37signals didn't seem to want to go that route. But they do love
       | to build their own things, so servers would be a natural thing
       | for them to DIY.
       | 
       | Almost every argument against the cloud - cost inefficiency, fear
       | of vendor lock-in, etc - has easy solutions that make the whole
       | thing extremely cost competitive, if not a way better value, than
       | trying to become your own cloud hosting provider. It's very hard
       | to estimate the real world costs, both known and unknown, of DIY
       | hosting (specifically the expertise, or lack of it, and the
       | impacts from doing it wrong, which is very likely to happen if
       | cloud hosting isn't your core business). But it's a 100%
       | guarantee that you will never do it better than AWS.
       | 
       | AI is the only place I could reasonably imagine somebody having
       | an on-prem advantage. At the moment, we still live in a world
       | where that hardware isn't a commodity in the way every other
       | server is. So you might just be faster to deploy, or cheaper to
       | buy, with AI gear. Storage is similar but not nearly as tight a
       | market. But that will change eventually once either the hype
       | bubble bursts, or there's more gear for cheaper for the cloud
       | providers to sell.
        
         | cdchn wrote:
         | >K8s-on-OpenStack-on-K8s bonkers
         | 
         | Do what now???
        
           | p_l wrote:
           | It's actually quite reasonable if for bad reasons.
           | 
           | TL;DR setting up OpenStack was so horrible I think SAP
           | started deploying it through k8s.
           | 
           | So if you want to setup local "private cloud" kind of setup
           | it makes sense to set up OpenStack on k8s.
           | 
           | If you then want to provide multiple clusters cloud-style to
           | the rest of the organization... well, it's just layered
           | again.
           | 
           | In fact, at least one significantly-sized european vendor in
           | on-prem k8s space did exactly that kind of sandwich, to my
           | knowledge.
        
             | viraptor wrote:
             | Openstack on k8s is basically giving up on openstack on
             | openstack. https://wiki.openstack.org/wiki/TripleO You need
             | some kind of orchestration for the control plane. Either
             | you create it from scratch or use something existing.
        
         | vbezhenar wrote:
         | The main problem with AWS is their outrageous pricing on some
         | aspects like traffic. And some very unexpected pricing nuances
         | which could burn thousands of dollars in a blink of an eye.
         | 
         | While AWS engineers are more competent, may be you don't need
         | that much competency to run simple server or two. And expense
         | structure will be more predictable.
        
         | darkwater wrote:
         | > Almost every argument against the cloud - cost inefficiency,
         | fear of vendor lock-in, etc - has easy solutions that make the
         | whole thing extremely cost competitive, if not a way better
         | value, than trying to become your own cloud hosting provider.
         | It's very hard to estimate the real world costs, both known and
         | unknown, of DIY hosting (specifically the expertise, or lack of
         | it, and the impacts from doing it wrong, which is very likely
         | to happen if cloud hosting isn't your core business)
         | 
         | Please define your concept of self-hosting here. Does it mean
         | you need to have your very own DC? Renting a few racks that you
         | fill yourself? Rent CPU, storage and networking, with remote
         | hands and all the bells and whistles? Depending on the scenario
         | it changes dramatically the burden of ownership (at a monetary
         | cost, obviously). And depending on the size of the company and
         | the variability of the workload, it can (or can not) make sense
         | to be on-prem. But being like "cloud is perfect for everyone
         | and everything, if you tune it well enough" seems a bit too
         | much black&white to me.
        
         | vidarh wrote:
         | It's very easy to estimate the real-world cost of on-prem or
         | dedicated hosting - there is a wide range of providers that
         | will quote you fixed monthly prices to manage it for you
         | (including me) because we know what it costs us to manage
         | various things for you.
         | 
         | AI is the only place I _don 't_ currently see much on-prem
         | advantage, because buying SOTA equipment is hard, and it gets
         | outdated too quickly.
         | 
         | For pretty much everything else, if you can't save 70%+ TCO,
         | maintenance/devops included, over an _optimized_ cloud setup,
         | you 're usually doing something _very_ wrong, usually because
         | the system is designed by someone who defaults to  "cloud
         | assumptions" (slow cores, too little RAM, too little fast
         | storage, resulting in systems that are far more distributed
         | than they need be is the typical issue).
        
       | fancythat wrote:
       | I will use an opportunity to confirm that cloud is ill-suited for
       | almost all but niche business cases and majority of users were
       | dragged into cloud platforms either by free credits or (my
       | suspicion) some grey kick-back schemes with C-level guys.
       | 
       | At my current project (Fortune 500 saas company, was there for
       | both on-prem to cloud and then cloud-to-cloud migration):
       | 
       | a) Resources are terribly expensive. Usual tricks you find online
       | (spot instances) usually cannot be applied for some specific work
       | related reason. In our estimates, in contrast to even the hw/sw
       | list-prices, cloud is 5x-10x more expensive, of course depending
       | on the features you are planning to use.
       | 
       | b) There is always a sort of "direction" cloud provider pushes
       | you into: in my case, costs between VMs and Kubernetes are so
       | high, we get almost weekly demands to make the conversion, even
       | though Kubernetes for some of the scenarios we have don't make
       | any sense.
       | 
       | c) Even though we are spending 6 figures, now maybe even 7
       | figures on the infrastructure monthly, priority support answer
       | that we receive are borderline comical and in-line with one
       | response we received when we asked why our DB service was down,
       | quote: "DB has experienced some issues so it was restarted."
       | 
       | d) When we were having on-prem, some new features asked from ops
       | side, were usually implemented / investigated in a day or so.
       | Nowadays, in most cases, answers are available after week or so
       | of investigation, because each thing has its own name and lingo
       | with different cloud providers. This can be solved with specific
       | cloud certifications, but in real-world, we cannot pause the
       | business for 6 months until all ops are completely knowledgeable
       | about all inner workings of the currently popular cloud provider.
       | 
       | e) Performance is atrocious at times. That multi-tenancy some
       | guys are mentioning here is for provider's benefit not for the
       | customer. They cram ungodly amount of workload on machines, that
       | mostly works, until it doesn't and when it does not, effects are
       | catastrophic. Yes, you can have isolation and dedicated
       | resources, but a)
       | 
       | f) Security and reliability features are overly exaggerated. From
       | the observable facts, in the last year, we had 4 major incidents
       | lasting several hours strictly related to the platform (total
       | connectivity failure, total service failure, complete loss of one
       | of the sites, etc).
       | 
       | In the end, for anyone who wants to get deeper into this, check
       | what Ahrefs wrote about cloud.
        
       | andrewstuart wrote:
       | 9 cents per gigabyte egress is the core of why companies are
       | leaving the cloud.
       | 
       | That's the start point that gets them thinking about all the
       | other ways it's a bad idea.
       | 
       | "The cloud is where Moore's law goes to die."
        
       | Mortiffer wrote:
       | How can we get ride of vendor lock-in and have fait market
       | competition get prices down for cloud?
       | 
       | It must be possible to make cloud more cost effective via
       | specialization versus every company building the same
       | infrastructure again and again.
        
         | scirob wrote:
         | Proposed solution: A set of neutral validators that define
         | standard Interfaces and then test any cloud wanting to get
         | listed for compatibility and minimum included performance (also
         | egress).
         | 
         | If all this data is open we should get competition back and fix
         | cloud.
         | 
         | Disclaimer: I am working on suh a system, enterprise love the
         | idea it does well at hackathons but not production ready on the
         | validation standard yet. Would be happy to get critical HN
         | feedback.
        
       | InDubioProRubio wrote:
       | There is a ton of companies in the cloud, that do not know- how
       | to do cloud infra. So they park there administration- at their
       | integrating customers. Which then ditch the avalanche of burning
       | and rebuild huts.
       | 
       | A meta-standard for deployment and infrastructure setup is needed
       | and should be forced down the throats of the resisting patient.
        
       | bob1029 wrote:
       | I think control is maybe a bigger factor than cost these days.
       | Being able to hold anyone accountable at all seems to be an
       | operational superpower. Working with cloud vendor support is a
       | torturous experience on a good day. It also doesn't matter how
       | expensive the virtual machine is if there isn't one available to
       | be provisioned.
       | 
       | I know it's kind of harsh, but owning the whole vertical and
       | having the power to instantly fire anyone for giving an Azure-
       | tier response is why these companies are doing it in my mind.
       | Waiting on a 3rd party to find their own ass with a whole S&R
       | team every time you need help is quite exhausting. I've never
       | worked with an IT vendor and thought "damn these people are so
       | responsive I can't dream of doing it better myself".
        
         | michaelt wrote:
         | In some regards, absolutely.
         | 
         | But remember even when you're doing everything on-prem with
         | your own employees, you're still running _software_ written by
         | third parties.
         | 
         | So you might still have an unresponsive third party, just they
         | might be a database vendor instead of a cloud vendor.
        
           | EraYaN wrote:
           | Depending on you size, even just having some people from all
           | the open source products on staff is probably cheaper anyway.
           | And gives you pretty good control. And if it used to work the
           | only one that can have broken the config is you, which means
           | you can also fix it. Sure maybe you need to rollback a kernel
           | update or whatever but in the end it's on you.
        
         | maccard wrote:
         | I work for a small orgthat is owned by a very large corp. Our
         | spending is managed by large corp.
         | 
         | If I want to buy a $10 domain, the process takes a month and
         | requires escalating to a purchasing director. If I want to rent
         | a new server from hetzner, same thing.
         | 
         | If I want to spin up a bedrock instance for $1000/day on AWS -
         | it's already a line item in the budget so as long as I have a
         | cost tag on the resource it's pre-approved. As long as
         | something is on the software catalog on AWS it's ok to use.
        
       | siva7 wrote:
       | Well, major companies aren't ditching the cloud and there is no
       | evidence for a trend otherwise. And 37signals isn't a major
       | organization for any of the big cloud providers. They are just a
       | rounding error.
        
         | vidarh wrote:
         | Major companies aren't paying the headline rates.
         | 
         | Even at 37 signals size you're paying negotiated rates.
         | 
         | And 37 signals may not be a "major" organization to you, but
         | they're bigger than the vast majority of companies.
        
           | siva7 wrote:
           | They are certainly a household name in the startup community
           | but they are not a major organization for the big three cloud
           | providers. Why is this important? Because the headline claims
           | falsely that major companies are ditching the cloud
           | providers. I have insights into the decision process for a
           | major organization moving to the cloud and the motivation why
           | 37 would leave cloud are in no way comparable to that of a
           | major org.
        
             | vidarh wrote:
             | "major" is subjective. They are larger than the vast
             | majority of companies. That makes them "major" to me at
             | least.
        
       | politelemon wrote:
       | > For instance, companies can utilize cloud native NVMe-based
       | storage solutions for their database or implement custom database
       | hosting on cloud compute instances using Kubernetes, all while
       | maintaining the cloud's scalability and flexibility, avoiding any
       | lock-in.
       | 
       | I will always dispute this. K8s is _also_ a lock-in, it does not
       | magically free you from issues, it only brings in a separate set
       | of issues, overheads and problems.
        
       | xoneill wrote:
       | Telco, and I'm sure other industries, are adopting hybrid. Many
       | things core to the business are being yanked out of the cloud.
        
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