[HN Gopher] The Saga of a Celebrated Scientist - and His Rodent ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The Saga of a Celebrated Scientist - and His Rodent Dystopia
        
       Author : Petiver
       Score  : 28 points
       Date   : 2024-11-04 02:41 UTC (20 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.chronicle.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.chronicle.com)
        
       | pvg wrote:
       | https://archive.is/u1BQo
        
       | FrustratedMonky wrote:
       | Would love to see this repeated. This is divisive, and so many
       | arguments spawned.
       | 
       | It would be good to replicate it, just to put down some of the
       | naysayers that quibble over a point or two saying it was staged
       | or influenced.
       | 
       | And, to gain more knowledge about the causes and effects. We have
       | more information today, and more data gathering. Would be good to
       | do this study again in a modern lab.
       | 
       | Though not sure this type of experiment would be allowed today.
       | Thus the problem. Some of the more well known studies that had a
       | big impact on our way of thinking, aren't even allowed to be done
       | today.
        
         | nemo wrote:
         | >It would be good to replicate it, just to put down some of the
         | naysayers that quibble over a point or two saying it was staged
         | or influenced.
         | 
         | No, that is _not_ why it would be good to attempt to replicate.
         | Shutting people down isn 't the helpful part, but rather
         | shedding light on the truth with evidence is the positive.
         | 
         | There's many strong reasons to consider the study was flawed
         | (mentioned in the article and readily discoverable online), for
         | the record, and the author of the paper's got all the classic
         | signs of a crank, so skepticism would be healthy in this case,
         | and shutting down skeptics would be very foolish.
        
           | FrustratedMonky wrote:
           | "And, to gain more knowledge about the causes and effects. We
           | have more information today, and more data gathering. Would
           | be good to do this study again in a modern lab."
           | 
           | Yes, I did mention 'shedding light with evidence' as a
           | positive thing.
           | 
           | And yes, read article and many others. I don't think the
           | flaws were as 'strong' as you are implying, hence, yes, would
           | be good to replicate to prevent the arguments for dismissing
           | it because there were 'some' flaws.
           | 
           | Treat it like other studies. It was a first attempt, there
           | were some interesting results, but also some 'flaws', hence,
           | lets replicate and iron out the problems and see if we get
           | some additional interesting results.
        
       | gojomo wrote:
       | Gwern's deep dive into Calhoun's scholarship suggests taking his
       | "results", & popular/stylized glosses thereof, with some pretty
       | big grains of salt - in line with the fall from academic
       | prominence described in later parts of this article. Gwern's
       | abstract:
       | 
       |  _> Did John Calhoun's 1960s Mouse Utopia really show that animal
       | (and human) populations will expand to arbitrary densities,
       | creating socially-driven pathology and collapse? Reasons for
       | doubt._
       | 
       | https://gwern.net/mouse-utopia
        
       | swayvil wrote:
       | There is a taboo against constraining reproduction. Legally,
       | medically or whatever.
       | 
       | Which is unreasonable of course, given that reproduction is
       | arguably more destructive than bombs.
       | 
       | If you wanted to dial-down our incessant breeding without getting
       | lynched, how would you do it?
        
         | moomin wrote:
         | Women's education and women's rights. I don't personally think
         | we have an overpopulation problem, but the above are proven to
         | reduce birth rates in an entirely non-coercive manner, as well
         | as being a good thing in their own right.
        
           | swayvil wrote:
           | I was thinking something a little more sure-fire and scifi,
           | but yes, that's a kind way to do it.
        
           | Brybry wrote:
           | And possibly most importantly: women's wage employment.[1]
           | 
           | [1] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8295801/
        
         | idunnoman1222 wrote:
         | Our what?
        
         | fwip wrote:
         | I think you'll find that many people find it both reasonable
         | and desirable to preserve reproductive rights, despite your
         | casual "of course."
        
         | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
         | > If you wanted to dial-down our incessant breeding without
         | getting lynched, how would you do it?
         | 
         | Dialing it down is easy. Dialing it back up is impossible. The
         | Chinese successfully dialed fertility down to 1.0 (officially,
         | unofficially far lower), but try as they might they cannot make
         | it move back up above that. China is doomed, even if that doom
         | lies centuries off.
         | 
         | Other places didn't even have to try. Breeding has been dialed
         | down far below the replacement rate, and many other nations are
         | on the road to extinction. India has likely sunk below
         | replacement fertility, or will in the next year or two. Only a
         | few nations in central Africa have above-replacement fertility.
         | 
         | > There is a taboo against constraining reproduction. Legally,
         | medically or whatever.
         | 
         | I've never personally seen evidence of such a taboo in the
         | western hemisphere. Even in the United States. Instead, a few
         | years ago, we had media talking head saying how the law should
         | do something about the Octomom, that it "wasn't right". We live
         | in the "shout your abortion" era. We're seeing the rise of the
         | r/childfree culture. Constraining reproduction isn't taboo,
         | it's celebrated. We live in a dying civilization hellbent on
         | committing collective suicide.
        
         | GuB-42 wrote:
         | Somewhat surprisingly, the answer seems to be "nothing".
         | 
         | In a primitive society, population self-regulates through early
         | deaths, caused by diseases, physical injury, famines, etc...
         | Then there is a transition to modern society (demographic
         | transition) where though improvement in medicine, agriculture,
         | and the general idea of not letting people die, population
         | grows exponentially, but it doesn't last as people simply stop
         | making children.
         | 
         | It has already happened in the first world, most countries
         | would have a negative growth rate if it wasn't for immigration.
         | Asia are just at the end of their transition and Africa is in
         | the middle of it. Assuming the trend still holds, it will be
         | the end for Africa and therefore, the entire world in a few
         | decades. It is actually reason for concern, as it will result
         | in an aging population, and unlike today in first world
         | countries, there will be no immigration to compound the
         | problem.
         | 
         | But changing the question and asking "How was it done?"
         | instead, then I would say "birth control", the voluntary kind,
         | the pill in particular. Safe abortion too. As someone
         | mentioned, women in the workforce also contributed, but I would
         | go further and say that for many women, having a job is not a
         | right, it is an obligation! Many couples simply can't live
         | decently on a single pay, especially with a child. Also, with
         | laws regarding child labor, long studies, and changes in
         | mentality, children are more of a burden than they once were,
         | as most can't support themselves before their 20s. It used that
         | at that age and even way before that, they supported their
         | parents instead, especially boys (that's the idea behind
         | dories).
         | 
         | Besides the inability to live on a single pay, these are
         | generally good things, but the result is less children, which
         | is a good thing for ending a potentially catastrophic
         | exponential growth, but it may turn out to be a problem later.
         | Not an unsolvable one though.
        
           | moomin wrote:
           | Yeah, at some point we're going to have to solve the opposite
           | problem. Luckily that's also pretty easy to solve as well:
           | mandatory maternity/paternity leave, free childcare, &c
        
       | iamleppert wrote:
       | A rat is an intelligent creature but also lives in filth.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2024-11-04 23:02 UTC)