[HN Gopher] All political ads running on Google in the US
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       All political ads running on Google in the US
        
       Author : cellis
       Score  : 187 points
       Date   : 2024-10-24 17:16 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (adstransparency.google.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (adstransparency.google.com)
        
       | Dig1t wrote:
       | Am I reading this wrong or does it seem like the majority of
       | these are for Harris/Democrats?
        
         | Dwedit wrote:
         | When one campaign raises 3 times as much money as the other
         | campaign, that tends to happen.
        
           | lucianbr wrote:
           | Interesting that money is considered to have a large
           | influence on US elections, one side has a lot more money, and
           | yet the race is incredibly close.
        
             | cwillu wrote:
             | The polling may be close, but we really won't know if the
             | _election_ is close until the final numbers come out.
        
             | sickofparadox wrote:
             | Money is a lot in US politics, but Michael Bloomberg will
             | tell you himself that it isn't everything. [1]
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Bloomberg_2020_pr
             | eside....
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | Money has an influence but it's not decisive. In the 2016
             | presidential election, the Clinton / Kaine campaign spent
             | about twice as much as their opponents but still lost.
             | Could they have won with even more money? Maybe?
        
             | Yawrehto wrote:
             | In my view, money might once have, but the number of
             | persuadable voters is quite low. If someone has decided to
             | vote for Trump, it's unlikely they will change their mind.
             | And if someone is undecided, they'll probably vote for
             | Trump, because let's face it, most people voting for Harris
             | aren't voting because they like her platform - they're
             | voting because they dislike Trump. If you don't dislike
             | Trump, Harris's platform is nothing world-changingly new or
             | different.
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | > most people voting for Harris aren't voting because
               | they like her platform - they're voting because they
               | dislike Trump
               | 
               | That seems to be a popular conclusion by people who are
               | on the Trump side. I see little evidence for it in real
               | life. Many factors go into a political choice, and sure,
               | disliking Trump is one of them, but most Harris
               | supporters would not be voting R in any case because they
               | do not agree with that platform.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _Interesting that money is considered to have a large
             | influence on US elections_
             | 
             | It's popularly overblown. See: Jeb Bush's $100mm,
             | Bloomberg, Hillary Clinton, _et cetera_.
        
           | lazyeye wrote:
           | Yes remember when billionaire money interfering in election
           | campaigns was considered a bad thing?
        
         | loeg wrote:
         | What do you think the demographics are of Google ad viewers vs
         | Harris / Trump potential voters?
         | 
         | But also, yes, the Harris campaign has spent about 2x as much
         | in aggregate:
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/25/us/elections/kamala-harri...
        
           | Macha wrote:
           | I'd expect the demographics of google ad viewers to be more
           | or less "the internet at large, minus a few markets like
           | China were Google is much less prevalent, and a few groups
           | techy enough to disproportionately run adblockers"
        
             | afavour wrote:
             | If I were in the Trump campaign I'd be targeting Facebook
             | over Google by a fair margin. A lot of older folks live on
             | there.
        
               | ryandrake wrote:
               | "Facebook users" or "Google users" are way too broad for
               | a political campaign ad to target. Party A's ad will go
               | to too many of Party B's users and vice versa. They need
               | to be much more carefully targeted to be effective.
               | 
               | The purpose of a political ad is not to convince
               | undecided people to vote for [party]. The number of
               | undecideds is vanishingly small, so there's no ROI there.
               | The purpose of a political ad is to convince people _who
               | have already picked a side_ to actually vote vs not
               | voting. So you need to carefully target your  "go vote"
               | message to your own team.
        
             | loeg wrote:
             | > more or less "the internet at large"
             | 
             | Right.
             | 
             | https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/internet-
             | bro...
             | 
             | Older voters are less likely to use the internet (and those
             | who do use it probably use it less). And there's a small
             | urban/rural divide still.
        
             | rsynnott wrote:
             | You'd be amazed. A surprising number of people,
             | particularly older people, do not use the internet as such
             | all that much; they use Facebook, or Instagram, or Twitter,
             | or YouTube.
        
               | _xander wrote:
               | I was completely shocked to find out how many people use
               | search in those apps to query open questions rather than
               | 'search the web' via something like Google
        
               | netsharc wrote:
               | At least YouTube is Google...
               | 
               | Heh, interesting, the lords of the Attention Economy is
               | Zuck, Google and TikTok. And Musk, but he's busy burning
               | his kingdom.
        
             | delichon wrote:
             | I bought a Kagi subscription when I discovered that Google
             | was de-indexing Covid podcasts that it didn't like. I doubt
             | that the population who moved on from Google is
             | demographically neutral.
        
               | Macha wrote:
               | > I doubt that the population who moved on from Google is
               | demographically neutral.
               | 
               | They are however, a relatively small group. I suspect
               | more people have moved to ChatGPT than to Kagi.
        
         | teach wrote:
         | I suspect that the given the different demographics of the
         | voting population, the republican side probably advertises more
         | on Facebook.
        
           | loeg wrote:
           | Or day time TV, yeah.
        
         | romanovcode wrote:
         | You are reading it right
        
         | jabroni_salad wrote:
         | Keep in mind it is only google. Trump has been developing his
         | comms channels for a decade with a core base composed of people
         | who hate 'the media' in every form. And he has gotten pretty
         | good at using those channels. It's also the case that everyone
         | has heard of him now (you may recall that he was recently The
         | President).
         | 
         | Harris was put into candidacy at the last second and needs to
         | speedrun building a president's worth of goodwill from scratch
         | against a guy who functionally already has it. That means her
         | marketing base is 'the entire country' and you need to hit that
         | as hard as possible as fast as possible, which is expensive.
        
       | neilv wrote:
       | Kudos to Google. We also need this for all the non-Google
       | outlets.
        
         | mkmk wrote:
         | Here's the equivalent from Meta:
         | https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?active_status=active&a...
        
           | throwaway29812 wrote:
           | Here's one from X via CNN:
           | https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/doj-alleges-
           | russia-f...
        
       | lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote:
       | Interesting to compare the top ads when sorting "Amount spent:
       | high to low" and "Number of times shown: high to low". Political
       | ads from 4 years ago appear to have been shown many more times
       | for much less cost. This year's ads seem considerably more
       | expensive while also reaching a smaller audience.
        
         | xnx wrote:
         | Inflation is part of that.
        
           | candiddevmike wrote:
           | Nah, I think this one is just greed.
        
             | jpadkins wrote:
             | what caused this sudden change in greed? Were these actors
             | not greedy before 2019?
        
               | namrog84 wrote:
               | Covid was a catalyst for bigger changes to go potentially
               | unchallenged and opportunity for extra greed. 1 company
               | dared do a thing and no one batted eye. Then 2nd.
               | Domino's of greed and fake excuse on supposed inflation.
               | But it was just domino's of greed
        
               | exe34 wrote:
               | boiling the frog slowly. if you start out being more
               | expensive than traditional media, they won't use you.
               | 
               | same thing with streaming. start out cheaper/more
               | convenient/more comprehensive than traditional media -
               | and an enormous market to grow into, so your shareholders
               | are happy even with a reasonable price. wait a few years
               | until you have saturated the market, and now the only way
               | to achieve the holy growth is to raise the prices
               | indefinitely.
        
               | karakot wrote:
               | https://imgur.com/presenting-recent-findings-by-fucking-
               | magn...
        
               | pownie3xpress wrote:
               | While rates were low they could offset nickel and diming
               | consumers by handing them cheap cash in the form of
               | inflated wages to work lame jobs. Now rates are high,
               | jobs cut, less consumer nickel and diming as consumers
               | are tapped out
               | 
               | For the time being it's back to the old way of screwing
               | the public by over charging government for consulting
               | work
        
         | jsheard wrote:
         | The politicians are having to bid against Temu this year and by
         | god do they spend a lot on ads.
        
           | Semaphor wrote:
           | It's kinda crazy. We are in Germany, so no US ads. But even
           | 8EUR eCPM floor still makes temu show up.
        
             | CSMastermind wrote:
             | The only Temu ad I've ever seen was during the Super Bowl.
             | I'm guessing I'm in the wrong demographic?
        
               | Semaphor wrote:
               | I'm talking banner ads. I block almost everything
               | everywhere, except my work. My boss (who doesn't block
               | anything and accepts all tracking everywhere) doesn't get
               | their ads. So I think they just have a scattershot
               | approach.
        
         | rsynnott wrote:
         | More targeted, perhaps. "Meh, whoever" has always been cheaper
         | per view than targeted.
        
           | lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote:
           | I think you're right. I've been comparing these two directly:
           | 
           | 2020: https://adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/AR1236561
           | 09299...
           | 
           | 2024: https://adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/AR1046216
           | 81140...
           | 
           | Looks like it's primarily the "location" demographic that is
           | actually different. Neither ad excludes any demographics for
           | Age or Gender but the 2024 includes specific locations for
           | advertisements. So maybe fewer people in Europe and elsewhere
           | seeing American political ads, which I'd assume is preferred
           | by the advertisers. I can see how that would compound to this
           | effect; fewer valuable targets and more value per target.
           | 
           | (Another thing I notice is the ad run length. The 2020 ads
           | ran for a single day (with over 10M views!) and the 2024 ads
           | have been running for weeks or months. Not sure if that's
           | relevant to the expenditure but it's interesting to note.)
        
         | alwa wrote:
         | Competition might be part of that too: more money chasing the
         | same number of eyeballs as the election season ramped up (for
         | that matter, probably chasing a smaller number of eyeballs, as
         | critical segments of swing voters became more clear)
        
         | charliebwrites wrote:
         | Sounds like Google is making good money on this then
        
           | unglaublich wrote:
           | Gold rush shovels
        
       | matsemann wrote:
       | In Norway it's forbidden with political ads _on TV_. Reasoning
       | being that live images can have a huge influence, while also
       | possibly being inflammatory and dumb down the debate. But main
       | reason mainly is that it would give those with enough money to
       | afford these  "expensive tv ads" a leg up.
       | 
       | However, this law hasn't been updated in decades. So it's still
       | only TV ads that's illegal. So it feels like a quite arbitrary
       | restriction now.
       | 
       | Not saying it should be illegal on other media as well, but I do
       | like the idea of it not being the size of your pockets
       | determining the election. I guess that would be hard to police
       | anyways now, with how influencers can sway stuff without it being
       | an "ad", or how algorithms drive you into a rabbit hole of
       | tailored content anyways.
        
         | sneak wrote:
         | The population of all of Norway is substantially less than that
         | of the New York, LA, Chicago, or Houston metro areas.
         | 
         | The scale of these markets or the spending related thereto is
         | not comparable at all.
        
           | maest wrote:
           | ?
           | 
           | What is your point?
        
             | sneak wrote:
             | Comparing what works in one with what works in the other is
             | meaningless at best. The idea that any of these concepts
             | could be generalized between the two is silly.
        
               | matsemann wrote:
               | I didn't say it worked, rather I said it kinda doesn't
               | because it's so limited compared to where people get
               | their ads nowadays. It also wasn't really meant as a
               | comparison, more of a segue into a discussion around if
               | the huge ad spending and influencing is good or bad.
        
               | lysace wrote:
               | Ah, scale-ism. ;-)
               | 
               | I can't instinctively imagine how the size of a nation
               | could realistically impact the results of this particular
               | decision (banning political ads). Could you perhaps
               | propose a realistic theory?
        
           | triceratops wrote:
           | Could any of these metro areas ban political ads on TV
           | locally?
        
         | fallingknife wrote:
         | Also media outlets are free to propagandize all day. You can't
         | restrict that because we don't want to restrict freedom of the
         | press. But then that begs the question, don't all companies and
         | individuals have the same freedom of the press that media
         | companies do?
        
           | ggregoire wrote:
           | This is the most shocking part from an outsider POV. In
           | Europe* mainstream media must obviously be neutral about each
           | candidate but also give the same amount of airing time to
           | each candidate. So like if candidate 1 is invited for a 10
           | min interview, candidate 2 must be invited too and offered
           | the same airing time. Meanwhile here Fox can just call Harris
           | "stupid" (and CNN reciprocally call Trump whatever they
           | want), lie to make them look good/bad and support their
           | candidate all day long while spitting on the other one, and
           | it's fine.
           | 
           | Edit: my bad for generalizing all countries of Europe
        
             | ztetranz wrote:
             | How much do they have to be "neutral" when there are
             | multiple candidates with significantly different
             | popularity?
             | 
             | If there are three candidates polling about equal then
             | okay, it's easy to be neutral. But what if they're |40, 35,
             | 25| or |60, 20, 20| or |55, 40, 5|?
             | 
             | When does a minor candidate drop out of their neutrality?
             | I'm not saying the general idea is bad but just pointing
             | out that neutrality is kind of a vague concept. It's a bit
             | like giving climate change deniers equal airtime with
             | serious scientists.
        
               | ggregoire wrote:
               | I don't know if I follow you. My point was that TV
               | networks can't do propaganda for a candidate, i.e. they
               | can repeat the policies of each candidate (without giving
               | you their opinion on those policies and trying to
               | convince you if it's good or bad or modify them) and fact
               | check what they say, but they can't tell you who to vote
               | for or blatantly lie about them. Hence they are neutral.
               | Meanwhile here Fox will just tell you to vote for Trump
               | to save America and that if Harris wins she will turn
               | America into communism, and millions of people are
               | watching and believing it.
        
               | Freedom2 wrote:
               | If that's what the Fox presenters truly believe, should
               | the government be allowed to censor them?
        
             | amadeuspagel wrote:
             | This is certainly not true for the mainstream media in all
             | of europe. It might be true for public television stations
             | in some countries.
        
             | pawelmurias wrote:
             | Not in Poland. Before the last election we had 100%
             | partisan media with the public media campaigning for the
             | ruling party and the opposition controling the private
             | media. Both had the Fox News/CNN/Pravda levels of
             | objectivity showing a strange propaganda version of
             | reality.
        
             | pvaldes wrote:
             | In Spain, public TV must show a list of parties with a
             | minimum same time for even the tiniest craziest parties
             | several times a day. After that, they are free to keep
             | doing their thing.
             | 
             | But the biggest parties can buy more time by several
             | subterfuges. In resume they can pay somehow for receiving a
             | special treatment. Every politician has a market value and
             | TV programs always compete for showing adds to the most
             | eyeballs possible, so they will try to fill their programs
             | with the more popular politicians 'for free'.
             | 
             | If I'm not wrong, private channels, funded without public
             | money, can show people making pancakes all day it they
             | want, but they will also try to maximize their advertising
             | revenues.
        
         | kldx wrote:
         | How are TV ads any different from MDG posters or the AP ads at
         | bus stops? We allow the latter in Norway and they're not that
         | much cheaper than TV ads.
        
           | matsemann wrote:
           | They're different as in a video can influence you much
           | stronger than a poster. But maybe you misunderstood me, my
           | point was that the way we have it today isn't necessarily
           | good either. Just curious about how one can give people good
           | information, without it being too inflammatory, and without
           | making an election a race about who has the most money.
        
             | kldx wrote:
             | No, I agree with your remark completely but I'm still
             | ambivalent about the tradeoff.
             | 
             | We agree there should at least be one medium of advertising
             | for political parties. But where do we draw the line?
             | 
             | For instance, I would be happy with making all ads plain
             | text, standard font and size so that the ads won't abuse
             | human attention by showing bright colors, happy images etc.
        
           | anigbrowl wrote:
           | _Reasoning being that live images can have a huge influence_
        
             | kldx wrote:
             | Adding some context here - TBane stations (the subway) in
             | Oslo have posters that show live videos - usually static
             | images with dynamic attention-grabbing effects but
             | sometimes full blown videos too.
        
         | acomjean wrote:
         | Kind of new in the US, you can't stop people in the US from
         | spending money on ads that amplify there speech. [1]
         | 
         | Political spending is regulated, but we now have "political
         | action committees" that can support candidates but can't
         | coordinate with them. They can accept money from anyone in any
         | amounts. Its brought tons of money from wealthy doners into
         | polics in the US.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens_United_v._FEC
         | 
         | Comedey Centrals Colbert Report (Colbert playing a Conservative
         | pundit) once set one a PAC with a political lawyer.
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colbert_Super_PAC
         | 
         | I'm not a lawyer..
         | 
         | As someone who is "swing state adjacent", and avoiding them
         | mostly this year, I feel for those under the crush of political
         | ads.
        
           | paulryanrogers wrote:
           | PACs can now coordinate with campaigns! What could possibly
           | go wrong?
        
         | pessimizer wrote:
         | > But main reason mainly is that it would give those with
         | enough money to afford these "expensive tv ads" a leg up.
         | 
         | I think the main reason for rules like this is because it's
         | literally politicians and political parties shoveling huge
         | amounts of cash to the media, and 1) one of the purposes of the
         | media is to inform people about politicians and politics, and
         | 2) the politicians who are elected will oversee the media and
         | their mergers. An intimate relationship is created where
         | democracy demands an adversarial one.
         | 
         | It's rotten. It's the same reason no media can criticize any
         | drug in the US, since they were allowed to advertise to the
         | public. I'm sure there's some value in having people ask for
         | specific drugs from their doctors, but that's minimal; the main
         | value is being immune to any criticism unless an e.g.
         | television station wants to lose 20% of their income.
        
       | teach wrote:
       | It's fascinating. I'm at home and my pi-hole ad-blocking rules
       | apparently trigger for that page, so although I can see the
       | titles, all the images just fail to load.
        
       | lysace wrote:
       | From the insights tab, with a date range of the past year, the
       | state where the second most ad money was spent was California
       | (after Pennsylvania).
       | 
       | California is not even close to being a swing state, afaik?
        
         | entropicdrifter wrote:
         | There are a ton of smaller races in California that end up
         | hotly contested. The state has big money on both sides of those
         | smaller races.
        
         | fallingknife wrote:
         | There are lots of people on the ballot besides Harris and
         | Trump.
        
         | pchristensen wrote:
         | California has over 10 million people more than Texas. It's
         | huge, so absolute number comparisons are often confusing.
         | 
         | As usual, XKCD (can't find the comic) -
         | https://x.com/xkcd/status/1339348000750104576?lang=en
        
           | lysace wrote:
           | Sure, but it's a winner-takes-all situation.
           | 
           | (That tweet is excellent.)
        
           | mananaysiempre wrote:
           | > can't find the comic
           | 
           | The tweet quotes the alt-text of https://xkcd.com/2399/ "2020
           | Election Map":
           | 
           | > There are more Trump voters in California than Texas, more
           | Biden voters in Texas than New York, more Trump voters in New
           | York than Ohio, more Biden voters in Ohio than Massachusetts,
           | more Trump voters in Massachusetts than Mississippi, and more
           | Biden voters in Mississippi than Vermont.
        
         | swatcoder wrote:
         | California is strongly "blue" on the national issues these
         | days, but that doesn't mean that there aren't hotly contested
         | elections and ballot measures at issue within the state.
         | 
         | Seperately, it brings potential as a _source_ of funding to
         | spend elsewhere specifically because some of the national
         | questions aren 't really open. If you are confident in the ROI,
         | you can run ads there to drive fundraising -- especially early
         | on -- and then spend those raised funds in contested elections
         | elsewhere.
         | 
         | The same dynamic happens in soundly "red" markets, although
         | that may not be apparent in this dataset because of the
         | specific demographics of Google advertising.
        
           | johnnyanmac wrote:
           | I'm probably going to mail my ballot on Monday. Are there any
           | particular hot button issues in California to look out for?
        
             | Rebelgecko wrote:
             | IMO this year the ballot props are much more meaningful to
             | the average person than usual. The perennial niche prosp
             | about kidney dialysis aren't making a showing for what
             | feels like the first time in a decade.
             | 
             | There are some big proposed changes to how local bond
             | measures work, rent control, and the criminal justice
             | system, IMO those are the ones spending the most time
             | researching and considering the consequences.
             | 
             | As far as the more niche ones this time around, there's the
             | same-sex marriage prop (which I believe is purely symbolic
             | and doesn't have an actual impact on same sex marriage in
             | California) and the prop designed to force the AIDs
             | Healthcare Foundation to spend more money on AIDS
             | healthcare (IIUC currently they spend most of their money
             | on political causes like lobbying against rezoning that
             | would allow denser housing)
        
               | SllX wrote:
               | > there's the same-sex marriage prop (which I believe is
               | purely symbolic and doesn't have an actual impact on same
               | sex marriage in California)
               | 
               | It removes an on-the-books clause that was rendered
               | inoperable by a SCOTUS decision. I think it's a step
               | above symbolic since any future changes in SCOTUS
               | jurisprudence reversing or partially reversing Obergefell
               | (which I don't think are at all likely with this court on
               | this issue, but it doesn't hurt to be prudent) could make
               | it operable again.
        
               | Rebelgecko wrote:
               | I think prop 8 was previously nullified by Hollingsworth
               | v. Perry?
               | 
               | Not saying it'll never matter, but if OP has a finite
               | amount of focus IMO it's better to spend it on laws that
               | will have an immediate impact over ones that require
               | multiple hypotheticals to come into play
        
               | swatcoder wrote:
               | > Finite amount of focus.
               | 
               | It revises one statement in the state constitution in a
               | very straightforward way.
               | 
               | It takes an infintessimal amount of focus to decide if
               | you're in favor of that change or not.
               | 
               | Whether the reason it's on this year's ballot is neurotic
               | or strategic is on a level with whether you should buy 4
               | or 6 rolls of toilet paper next time you're at the store.
               | You already know if you need toilet paper or not, so that
               | difference is relatively inconsequential.
        
               | GeneralMayhem wrote:
               | > same-sex marriage prop (which I believe is purely
               | symbolic...
               | 
               | Same-sex marriage is currently outlawed by the California
               | constitution as a result of Prop 8 from 2008. That clause
               | is void as a result of the _Hollingsworth_ and
               | _Obergefell_ decisions, but there are multiple members of
               | the Supreme Court who have explicitly said that they
               | would like to overturn Obergefell, so it 's a good idea
               | to get ahead of the potential catastrophe by taking the
               | bad law fully off the books, rather than relying on a
               | capricious and extremist court to stick to a rights-
               | defending decision for any amount of time.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | Doesn't the Respect for Marriage Act [1] ensure they
               | can't roll back same-sex marriage like they did abortion?
               | 
               | 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Doesn 't the Respect for Marriage Act [1] ensure they
               | can't roll back same-sex marriage like they did
               | abortion?_
               | 
               | No. RMA lets states ban gay marriage. It just requires
               | them to honour _other_ states ' gay marriages.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | Thanks for the clarification. I still wonder if it
               | matters all that much. You only need one state to allow
               | non-residents to marry on Zoom, and it's a non-issue in
               | practical terms.
               | 
               | States banning marriage within their borders takes away
               | the dignity and respect of same-sex marriages and
               | couples, so it's quite awful. But they can't actively
               | prosecute people for crossing state lines to marry. They
               | have to provide them the same rights as hetero-married
               | couples, even for things like state benefits and taxes.
        
           | tivert wrote:
           | > Seperately, it brings potential as a source of funding to
           | spend elsewhere specifically because some of the national
           | questions aren't really open. If you are confident in the
           | ROI, you can run ads there to drive fundraising -- especially
           | early on -- and then spend those raised funds in contested
           | elections elsewhere.
           | 
           | Exactly. A lot of the ads are fundraising ads, like this one:
           | https://adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/AR059412260615.
           | ..
        
         | candiddevmike wrote:
         | California has an enormous economy and holding office at any
         | level of government there opens a lot of "doors".
        
         | sangnoir wrote:
         | > California is not even close to being a swing state, afaik?
         | 
         | As the most populous state, California has a _lot_ of political
         | donors - likely the most registered members in a state for both
         | major parties. 1 in 8 Americans are in California. Those many
         | small-value  & high-roller donors help finance the swing state
         | operations, but need to be activated. Donors are why both
         | Republican and Democratic party candidates held events in
         | California, when it's not in play.
        
       | pembrook wrote:
       | Democrat, Republican, or Independent, Google gets rich either
       | way. You can clearly see price per view has gone up dramatically
       | from the historical comparison. $2B in Google ad spend so far
       | this cycle.
       | 
       | Also interesting, the New York Times is the most viewed ad of
       | this election season, having been seen 10M+ times.
       | 
       | It appears the only true winners of US presidential election
       | mania are Google and the Media.
        
         | netsharc wrote:
         | In the middle of the 2008 Dem primaries (H. Clinton vs Obama)
         | it was obvious it won't be much of a race anymore, Obama was
         | going to clinch it, but the media narrative was still
         | portraying it as one... it made me wonder how much of it came
         | because if the audience thinks it's a race, then they'll tune
         | in, and more eyeballs = better ad sales.
         | 
         | Ah, Allah bless the everlasting Attention Economy!
        
         | akomtu wrote:
         | NFL is a microcosm of american politics. Two opponent teams,
         | each has a trainer, a rich donor, some ideology and millions of
         | fanatics who vote for their team no matter what. It may seem
         | like the goal is to win the game on the stadium, but behind the
         | scenes it's a well calculated auction of advertisements.
        
           | dgfitz wrote:
           | Your first sentence is spot on. Your analysis is dead wrong.
        
         | j1mmie wrote:
         | In the age of information warfare, ads are a weapon and Google
         | is the modern day Colt. If you sell guns to the North, the
         | South needs more guns from you. If you sell to the criminals,
         | the cops need more guns from you.
         | 
         | Not sure what this is called but it's definitely not "don't be
         | evil"
        
           | johnnyanmac wrote:
           | The term I heard was fence-setters. It's a little off though,
           | becsuse it implies your allegiance changes. Google allegiance
           | is always clearly on money.
        
       | mwest217 wrote:
       | Why in the world is a generic NY Times ad categorized as a
       | political ad?
        
       | hammock wrote:
       | The top-spent ad in the last 7 days included no targeting other
       | than "nationwide, 18+." That seems folly, doesn't it? Huge waste?
        
         | silverquiet wrote:
         | Wouldn't an essentially untargeted ad be the most expensive to
         | run? Meaning that something like that will always be the top-
         | spent?
        
           | hammock wrote:
           | How "expensive" (in the sense of total spend) an ad is is
           | entirely driven by what budget you allow for the order.
           | 
           | But without targeting constraints you will get essentially
           | remnants and are unlikely to reach any of your actual target,
           | e.g. undecided likely voters in swing states
        
           | mh- wrote:
           | Not necessarily. If you bid low, you're effectively picking
           | up "remnant" inventory that no one else was willing to pay to
           | target.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | A lot of nationwide ads aren't intended to directly influence
         | voting. Rather they are campaign donation solicitations to get
         | more money to run future ads targeted to undecided voters in
         | swing states. Just about everyone 18+ nationwide could afford
         | to make a small campaign contribution if they care about the
         | outcome.
        
       | swayvil wrote:
       | Talk about normalized bad behavior.
        
       | mettamage wrote:
       | Seems like a general handy site in general as a sort of Google
       | Trends alternative. I know it's not an actual alternative but to
       | pick up on certain trends from advertizers.
        
       | cedws wrote:
       | Political advertising just makes democracy look like a total
       | joke. If you can buy votes by shoving ads in peoples' faces
       | that's not a democracy, that's an oligarchy.
        
         | readyplayernull wrote:
         | Circenses et panem
        
           | Loughla wrote:
           | I'm confused how that applies to political ads.
        
             | Dilettante_ wrote:
             | There is a perspective from which all politics is just
             | entertainment with audience participation, while The Powers
             | That Be control the things that actually matter.
             | 
             | (I'm not saying I endorse this view, I'm just trying to
             | explain)
             | 
             | t. Kooky conspiracy theory collector
        
         | unclad5968 wrote:
         | Well anyone can buy ads so it's not really an oligarchy.
         | 
         | What alternative would you propose for candidates to get
         | they're name out?
        
           | Biganon wrote:
           | Equal time on national television, by law. Like they do in
           | France for example.
        
             | thrance wrote:
             | Honestly it doesn't work that well. Far-rights channels
             | will push left-wing candidates to graveyard slots, or put
             | them against 3 trained "interviewers", etc.
             | 
             | Maybe it's still better than in the US? It's far from
             | perfect.
        
               | Mordisquitos wrote:
               | In Spain at least, radio and TV time slots for political
               | ads are assigned by the Electoral Commission in a session
               | which can be attended by representatives of each
               | candidacy.
        
             | addaon wrote:
             | So replace oligopoly with gerontocracy? Who consumes
             | national television?
        
               | Mordisquitos wrote:
               | Then enforce equal slots per online platform and forbid
               | targeting by demographic cohort.
        
               | mh- wrote:
               | I'm genuinely curious how this works. What constitutes a
               | platform?
               | 
               | Is TikTok a platform? Reddit? HN?
        
               | anigbrowl wrote:
               | Why don't you make a proposal for what you think is the
               | best approach?
        
               | unclad5968 wrote:
               | Fortunately our government can't force private entities
               | to sponsor specific political candidates, due to our
               | constitutional right to freedom of speech.
        
             | unclad5968 wrote:
             | As in state sponsored television? No one is watching CSPAN
             | to learn anything about candidates.
        
               | anigbrowl wrote:
               | Yes, that's the problem. American media is a sewer which
               | tends inexorably toward the lowest common denominator,
               | with dismal effects on its polity.
        
           | digdugdirk wrote:
           | Ah yes, I'm extremely glad that both myself and Charles Koch
           | have the equal right to buy ads. I see no problems that could
           | ever occur because we're equally legally allowed to spend
           | unlimited money on political advertising.
           | 
           | Now... How many ads will 5 bucks buy? I'm pretty deeply in
           | debt, but I could probably skip a meal in order to fully
           | exercise my political freedom.
        
           | sweeter wrote:
           | anyone can buy ads but who buys the majority of ads and ads
           | with the greatest overall impact and impression? That is very
           | obviously skewed. Campaigns directly have limitations on
           | these things, PACs however, do not.
           | 
           | and to your question there, one example is to look at Japan.
           | They give candidates an allotted minimum amount of time on TV
           | for free. A candidate gets platformed purely by running. Not
           | only that but we already do grass roots calling/texting/door-
           | knocking campaigns... it is all definitely possible, but
           | unlikely given that the current organization of elections
           | heavily favors the entrenched two party system and the
           | structures that back them (corporations, PACs, private
           | interests, party structures etc...)
           | 
           | When our entire system requires billions to run and win an
           | election, we are guaranteeing ourselves that we will continue
           | to live in an Oligarchy.
        
           | gosub100 wrote:
           | How about advertising anything other than a product or
           | service is illegal? No more campaign ads, period. You want to
           | know more about a candidate? Go research her yourself!
        
         | gosub100 wrote:
         | Yet when another country does it? "You're _meddling_ in the
         | election! ".
         | 
         | Mhmm, okay.
        
         | hfdgvvff wrote:
         | Yeah, freedom of speech is a joke.
        
           | dotancohen wrote:
           | The concept of freedom of speech does not imply a free
           | platform to spread your speech.
        
             | leereeves wrote:
             | I think the movie The Insider expressed it well: "The press
             | is free, for anyone that owns one."
             | 
             | Apparently that comes from an older expression dating back
             | at least to a 1960 quote in The New Yorker: "Freedom of the
             | press is guaranteed only to those who own one."
        
         | pawelmurias wrote:
         | The alternative to buying ads is buying newspapers and other
         | media outlets.
        
         | evantbyrne wrote:
         | Well there is no way to ban political messaging in-practice, so
         | we have to regulate it. Also, imo, making education accessible
         | to the masses is important for combating the effectiveness of
         | straight-up misinformation. Right now a good chunk of the
         | population doesn't even seem to understand why they believe
         | things generally, so there's plenty room to improve.
        
         | primitivesuave wrote:
         | Political advertising emerged within a decade of the birth of
         | the republic. Abraham Lincoln famously had his face plastered
         | everywhere, and his campaign monikers like "Honest Abe" are
         | still in use today.
         | 
         | The real push toward oligarchy, in my opinion, is the Supreme
         | Court decision in Citizens United vs FEC. The only available
         | remedy at this point is for the American electorate to stop
         | relying on political ads and make a decision on policy
         | alignment alone (like the Founding Fathers did) - this is a
         | totally unrealistic goal in today's polarized environment.
        
           | outside1234 wrote:
           | This. Something like 5 people are almost entirely funding
           | Trump's slump (hard to call this mess a campaign) towards the
           | White House and for sure they are going to want pay back.
           | This is what oligarchy looks like.
        
             | fakedang wrote:
             | 5 people? Last time I was on X, nearly every Silicon
             | Valley/tech billionaire was crooning from the rooftops for
             | Trump.
             | 
             | You could argue it's the native X bias, but these were all
             | the famous billionaires and multimillionaires who are top
             | names in the SV space. All rooting for a Trump win, perhaps
             | anticipating a quick Vance presidency.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | Which is ironic since in 2016 everyone on SV was holding
               | back tears of sadness over Trump getting elected. Oh how
               | the turntables.
        
               | outside1234 wrote:
               | I do believe that something like 70% of SV can't stand
               | Trump. You can see that in the insane amount of money
               | Kamala has raised from SV (which probably even dwarfs
               | Trump's XX person oligarch haul).
               | 
               | It is largely the sociopaths at the very very top that
               | are Trump donors.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | SV only cares about whoever will help them make more
               | money. Everything else is virtue signaling by champagne
               | socialists pretending to care about current day social
               | issues and the struggles of the lower classes.
        
               | outside1234 wrote:
               | Entirely possible - I spend as little time as possible
               | thinking about this and am just looking forward to our
               | national nightmare of Trump being a plausible president
               | candidate being over the week after next.
        
               | fullshark wrote:
               | He's a plausible candidate and he's at worst a coin flip
               | to win. Almost a 3-2 favorite based on betting markets.
               | 
               | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-
               | win-t...
        
               | outside1234 wrote:
               | You mean the betting markets the oligarchs have gamed? :)
               | 
               | Though I will agree with you that he has a coin flip
               | chance of being president, which is totally terrifying.
               | Is that what it felt like to be in Germany with Hitler?
        
               | zamadatix wrote:
               | A lot talk but only a ~half dozen actually bother to put
               | together 100s of millions where their mouths are about
               | it. I haven't looked this year but usually Bloomberg tops
               | the chart on the blue side.
        
         | tgv wrote:
         | Bezos simply told one of the leading newspapers what to do.
         | Musk buys votes. Oligarchy is about to become reality, and it's
         | powered by useful idiots.
        
           | sweeter wrote:
           | its been reality...
        
           | leereeves wrote:
           | Musk pays people to sign a petition, which is legal.
        
             | reaperducer wrote:
             | So legal that he stopped after being warned by the feds.
        
               | leereeves wrote:
               | Who says he stopped? I can't find that in the news, and
               | the offer is still up at:
               | 
               | https://petition.theamericapac.org/
               | 
               | Even the Biden DOJ only warned him that it "might be
               | illegal". They're stretching the law, trying to apply a
               | law against paying people to register to vote, but Elon
               | will pay people who are already registered so that's
               | quite a stretch.
        
         | rqtwteye wrote:
         | Germany doesn't have negative ads criticizing opponents (at
         | least it didn't have them when I lived there). This makes them
         | refreshingly boring. I would guess at least 90% of the US ads
         | are basically "the other guy is bad. Be afraid" without much
         | content. Getting rid of the negative ads would help a lot.
        
           | AftHurrahWinch wrote:
           | You might find this interesting!
           | 
           | "The Impact of Negative Political Advertisement on Voter
           | Behaviour in Germany - an Experiment"
           | 
           | https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=f8324712.
           | ..
           | 
           | "Negative campaigning has been a feature of German political
           | campaigns from the very beginning of the Federal Republic...
           | the central idea of this paper is to examine the considerable
           | difference between negative campaigning in Germany compared
           | with that in the US."
           | 
           | It seems like you're correct that German political ads are
           | almost never US-style 'attack ads' because among Germans,
           | "negative campaigning in Germany is much more risky for the
           | attacker than the impact it may have on the attacked party"
        
         | imiric wrote:
         | Political advertising is just the tip of the corruption
         | iceberg. When lobbying and gerrymandering is legal, can you
         | really claim you're living in a democracy?
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _When lobbying and gerrymandering is legal_
           | 
           | Have you ever given money to the EFF? They're lobbyists. Call
           | your represenatative? That's lobbying. Lobbying, _i.e._
           | constituents talking to electeds, is fundamental to
           | democracy.
        
             | rurp wrote:
             | A huge industrial corporation spending millions on
             | lobbyists in order to make it easier to dump pollutants
             | into the environment without consequence, increasing their
             | profits at the expense of local populations, is _also_ a
             | form of lobbying. I would bet that amoral corporate
             | lobbying accounts for far more activity than good mission
             | driven orgs like the EFF.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _huge industrial corporation spending millions on
               | lobbyists in order to make it easier to dump pollutants
               | into the environment without consequence, increasing
               | their profits at the expense of local populations, is
               | also a form of lobbying_
               | 
               | Yes. You're describing a policy disagreement between a
               | polluter and everyone else. Pick any political system and
               | you'll have the same divide.
               | 
               | > _would bet that amoral corporate lobbying accounts for
               | far more activity than good mission driven orgs like the
               | EFF_
               | 
               | I mean sure, for a given value of "good." Social policy
               | lobbying tends to vastly outstrip commercial lobbying, in
               | part because the latter is more focussed.
        
           | analog31 wrote:
           | Gerrymandering isn't legal. The Constitution says that the
           | states shall have a republican form of government. The
           | founders intended this to mean an elective republic. If the
           | government chooses its own electors, then it's not a republic
           | by any wild stretch of the imagination.
        
       | Jiiiiii wrote:
       | Gerson
        
       | Ninjinka wrote:
       | Why can't they show the ads that violated policy on the ads
       | transparency page? Seems like part of the transparency would be
       | seeing what they removed.
        
       | amadeuspagel wrote:
       | Fascinating stuff.
       | 
       | I went down a rabbit hole with this particlar ad:
       | https://adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/AR132650406472...
       | 
       | It links to a website called fultongrandjury.com, which I at
       | first thought would be an official government website, and what
       | initially made me curious was the idea of spending money to
       | advertise a government website, getting this additional
       | credibility. Like, if the facts are so strongly on your side that
       | you merely need to spend ad money to point people to official
       | sources, that's a strong signal.
       | 
       | > Fulton County Jury is a project of Our Community Media, Small
       | Town American Media, and Small Town Truth.
       | 
       | None of these are linked, but they can be found with Google. _Our
       | Community Media_ appears to be a website with stories scraped
       | from Google News, one even has the Google News default image.
       | _Small Town America Media_ claims to support Small Businesses,
       | Telehealth in Rural America and Digital Literacy. Their latest
       | news: Anti-Critical Race Theory Laws Are Political Theater by
       | State Politicians.
       | 
       | Small Town Truth is probably the most inspiring:
       | 
       | > For over 200 Years
       | 
       | > American has fought for truth
       | 
       | > Now....
       | 
       | > We need you to help
       | 
       | They have page dedicated to "discovering truth", telling it apart
       | from "russian fake news"[1] which is copied from and links to a
       | medium post.
       | 
       | None of these websites have information about who's behind them.
       | No person. No address. They have contact pages, but these are
       | just forms, probably to add you to some spam mailing list.
       | 
       | [1]: https://www.smalltowntruth.org/discover-truth
        
         | jodacola wrote:
         | Small Town Truth says it's a registered 501(c)(3). I just found
         | it by searching here: https://apps.irs.gov/app/eos/
         | 
         | It leads to further rabbit holes I don't have the time to dig
         | into now, but I might later, because now I'm very curious where
         | it leads.
        
           | jodacola wrote:
           | Meetings ended and I couldn't wait to get back!
           | 
           | So, searching via that Exempt Organization Search led to a
           | 501(c)(3) letter being issued to Small Town Truth, mailed to
           | a residential address in the care of the "Better Narrative
           | Group" - another "interesting" site[0].
           | 
           | Doing a little more searching, I've found another 501(c)(3)
           | in care of Better Narrative Group: Soul of a Nation Media.
           | Similar setup. In trying to find more information to connect
           | some dots, I found Soul of a Nation Media's taxes were filed
           | by ChurchBiz[1], but this hasn't led to anything interesting.
           | 
           | Both Small Town Truth and Soul of a Nation Media changed
           | addresses to a PO Box in Virginia in 2022.
           | 
           | Oh, and here are another two I just found related to Better
           | Narrative Group: American Volunteer Corps[2], Better
           | Neighbors Network[3].
           | 
           | To not assume malice, maybe it's a concerned citizen trying,
           | in their own way, by establishing these organizations.
           | Something feels off about the sites, though - not much
           | content, a little dead behind the eyes, and I can't put my
           | finger on the actual purpose of the sites. Odd.
           | 
           | [0] https://www.betternarrativegroup.org
           | 
           | [1] https://www.churchbiz.com
           | 
           | [2] https://www.americanvolunteercorps.org/
           | 
           | [3] https://www.betterneighborsnetwork.org/
           | 
           | edit: formatting
        
             | dartos wrote:
             | Not at my desktop, so I can't really dig into the technical
             | details of these sites, but by the look of them, they were
             | all made either with the same tool and general components
             | OR they were all made by the same group (maybe the same
             | contracting firm or something)
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _Both Small Town Truth and Soul of a Nation Media changed
             | addresses to a PO Box in Virginia in 2022_
             | 
             | What else is at that P.O. box?
        
         | vharuck wrote:
         | That sounds like a Russian misinformation webs-
         | 
         | >They have page dedicated to "discovering truth", telling it
         | apart from "russian fake news"[1] which is copied from and
         | links to a medium post.
         | 
         | Okay, so maybe not. Or maybe it is, and they expected people to
         | be suspicious, so they're the wolf in sheep's clothing warning
         | the other sheep about the wolf to gain trust. It's all too
         | much.
        
           | fakedang wrote:
           | Vote Trump or vote Harris, at the end of the day, the
           | American population is irrevocably split, serving Russian
           | interests.
        
             | FirmwareBurner wrote:
             | Population being split on the available options is the
             | basis of democracy and is a feature not a bug. Otherwise we
             | might as well just have a CCP style single party.
        
               | fakedang wrote:
               | I'm sure we don't need to argue semantics here as you
               | very well understand what I mean. The American public
               | wasn't as divided as now.
               | 
               | Heck, if Watergate were to have happened now, Nixon would
               | have escaped scotch free - as Trump has.
               | 
               | Joe Biden might even forever be remembered as the Neville
               | Chamberlain of USA (even though Neville doesn't deserve
               | his reputation while Biden absolutely does).
        
               | maxerickson wrote:
               | What analogy are you proposing with the Chamberlain
               | thing?
               | 
               | Are you mad the US hasn't declared war on Russia and
               | worried that it is going to have dire consequences for
               | the US?
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Are you mad the US hasn 't declared war on Russia and
               | worried that it is going to have dire consequences for
               | the US?_
               | 
               | We've absolutely been slow rolling aid to Ukraine because
               | the Biden White House bought Putin's bullshit. If we'd
               | provided the weapons we're providing Kyiv with now at the
               | outseet they would have been able to capitalise on the
               | Russian army's lack of preparedness to draw frontlines
               | much more advantageously, possibly even end the 'special
               | operation' before it became entrenched.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | Have you thought to consider that the slowness in aiding
               | Ukraine is a feature, not a bug?
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Have you thought to consider that the slowness in
               | aiding Ukraine is a feature, not a bug?_
               | 
               | Yes. Unless the goal is undermining American and NATO
               | interests, it doesn't make sense. One could conclude from
               | that corrupt motives. Hanlon's razor suggests a more
               | parsimonious solution. (The same folks who were convinced
               | Russia would be in Kyiv in weeks in '22, and then '23,
               | and then '24 keep getting quoted as experts.)
        
               | aucisson_masque wrote:
               | Population being split is what Putin and other
               | directorship wants. Ever heard about Philippe de
               | Macedoine "divide and conquer" ?
               | 
               | They are doing the same in Europe, because divided we
               | wouldn't be able to merge our force and push them back.
               | 
               | If half of America is for helping Ukraine and half
               | against, it makes it even tougher to do anything. Not
               | enough and people get mad about Ukrainian dying, too much
               | and people get mad about the money spending, everytime
               | you get chaos.
        
         | zamadatix wrote:
         | When I see .com I immediately assume it's not a government site
         | until proven otherwise. It's sometimes done, particularly for
         | affiliated and contracted sites, but also anyone can just go
         | register a .com (see the history of whitehouse.com - from porn
         | to gambling and more) plus government ones overwhelming tend to
         | be .gov, .org, .us, etc anyways. (.gov is really the only one
         | of those that's a particular guarantee of much but the others
         | are at least slightly more likely to be real sites).
        
         | lupusreal wrote:
         | > _fultongrandjury.com, which I at first thought would be an
         | official government website_
         | 
         | Are you being straight serious here, or are you doing a
         | rhetoric thing where _" I was confused"_ is just a shorthand
         | for _" I think some people might plausibly be confused"_?
         | 
         | I could see some people who aren't net-saavy thinking that
         | domain looks like a government website, but I'm surprised that
         | anybody here might see a .com like that and think it an
         | official anything. Official government websites in America
         | almost always use a .gov, and when they don't they usually have
         | some goofy long string of subdomains like
         | www.courts.state.md.us (I'm not 100% sure that is actually
         | official, but it's in the style government websites use and if
         | an unofficial website used that style I'd definitely consider
         | it an attempt to deceive people.)
        
       | AndrewKemendo wrote:
       | This is the data Googles (and others') models are trained on
       | 
       | Extreme biases in data mean extreme biases in inference
        
       | technotarek wrote:
       | If anyone is interested in connecting with someone working in
       | this space, please hit me up. We've been building tools for
       | political media buyers for the last several years. We draw data
       | from the Google Transparency DB, Meta's equivalent and other
       | disparate sources to allow campaigns to analyze the spending in
       | greater detail. It has been really interesting from an
       | engineering perspective, but also just to learn more about how
       | this industry operates.
        
       | NotBoolean wrote:
       | If the spend figure is right the difference between the money
       | spent in the USA and UK is larger than I expected.
       | 
       | Highest weekly spend in the UK is just under PS1M (Dec 2019)
       | while in the US it's PS50M (Oct 2024). That's 10 times more
       | spending with only 5 times the population.
        
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