[HN Gopher] Starship is Still Not Understood (2021)
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       Starship is Still Not Understood (2021)
        
       Author : MichaelNolan
       Score  : 15 points
       Date   : 2024-10-13 20:36 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (caseyhandmer.wordpress.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (caseyhandmer.wordpress.com)
        
       | BryanLegend wrote:
       | Feel's like we're finally conquering the gravity well!
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | We have been for more than half a century ...
        
       | kemotep wrote:
       | > Starship is intended to be able to transport a million tonnes
       | of cargo to the surface of Mars in just ten launch windows
       | 
       | Again, this is from 2021, one of those set of launches was to be
       | _last year_. And it was to be 1,000 starships bound for Mars to
       | meet that goal.
       | 
       | Starship is impressive but we need to be realistic about these
       | numbers. We haven't even technically had a launch with any
       | payload. Additionally they claim that within 2 years of the
       | Artemis mission we could get 1,000 people on the moon (though say
       | this isn't going to happen at least).
       | 
       | Starship will make Starlink V2 feasible and dozens if not
       | hundreds of missions that would otherwise never be possible. But
       | getting 1 million people to Mars (or even 1,000 people to the
       | Moon) is just fantasy. I will gladly eat crow but none of these
       | capabilities that exist on paper have actually been demonstrated
       | that are necessary to meet these goals. SapceX is the best there
       | is and likely will get to Mars. Just not how Musk describes it.
        
         | xupybd wrote:
         | He is a salesman that always over promises but still does some
         | cool stuff.
        
         | tw04 wrote:
         | >Just not how Musk describes it.
         | 
         | Every innovative mission needs someone pushing people to do the
         | impossible. That being said, every company trying to accomplish
         | the impossible needs an adult in the room to ground that
         | visionary.
         | 
         | In the case of Space-X, there's an adult in the room. Elon's
         | direct input at Space-X almost set the entire Starship project
         | back a year by insisting on trying a concrete launch pad that
         | all of his engineers told him would fail (and it did). After
         | that failure he appeared to get so distracted by Twitter that
         | Shotwell could point the engineers in a more effective
         | direction.
         | 
         | In the case of Tesla, there unfortunately is not. Elon's direct
         | input resulted in canning a low-cost model in favor of a "robo-
         | taxi" that is 100% dependent on full self driving using nothing
         | but cameras. That's pretty obviously not going to be viable
         | with any existing technology. An adult in the room would've
         | told him to either stick with the low-cost model to compete
         | with incoming Chinese imports, or use Lidar so that there's a
         | viable self-driving vehicle that can be sold sometime in the
         | next decade...
        
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       (page generated 2024-10-13 22:00 UTC)