[HN Gopher] Fundamental physics is dying? [video]
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       Fundamental physics is dying? [video]
        
       Author : nabla9
       Score  : 139 points
       Date   : 2024-10-11 10:21 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.youtube.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.youtube.com)
        
       | nabla9 wrote:
       | John Carlos Baez thinks Sabine has a point.
       | 
       | https://mathstodon.xyz/@johncarlosbaez/113285631281744111
       | 
       | >Despite the silly clickbait title of this video, Sabine says a
       | lot of interesting stuff in it: her criticism of claimed
       | deviations from Lorentz invariance in loop quantum gravity is
       | about as good as you'll get from anyone who hasn't actually
       | worked on loop quantum gravity. I worked on it for about 10
       | years, and the situation is even a bit worse than she makes it
       | sound.
        
         | dang wrote:
         | I know people have strong reactions to her and her sensational
         | style, but that is a serious recommendation from a
         | knowledgeable person, so I think we can give this thread a
         | second chance. (Someone emailed and asked us to.)
         | 
         | All: please let's keep the comments on topic and substantive
         | (and avoid the sensationalism and personality aspects).
         | 
         | Edit: this subthread was getting too off-topic so I moved the
         | replies to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41814764. Feel
         | free to reply there if you want.
        
         | notamy wrote:
         | > John Carlos Baez
         | 
         | For those like me who didn't know,
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Baez
         | 
         | > John Carlos Baez (/'baI.ez/;[2] born June 12, 1961) is an
         | American mathematical physicist and a professor of mathematics
         | at the University of California, Riverside (UCR)[3] in
         | Riverside, California. He has worked on spin foams in loop
         | quantum gravity, applications of higher categories to physics,
         | and applied category theory. Additionally, Baez is known on the
         | World Wide Web as the author of the crackpot index.
        
           | dang wrote:
           | And https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=johncarlosbaez!
           | 
           | Perhaps he'll contribute to this thread (or perhaps it would
           | waste his time)
        
           | lamontcg wrote:
           | And he was known on Usenet and sci.physics before the World
           | Wide Web was invented...
        
           | AdamH12113 wrote:
           | He was also a long-time maintainer of the Usenet Physics FAQ
           | and has been writing about physics and mathematics on the
           | internet for decades. So not only is he the real deal in
           | terms of knowledge, he also has a long history of
           | communicating that knowledge to the public, albeit typically
           | for a more advanced audience.
        
           | btilly wrote:
           | He is better known within physics as the author of _This Week
           | 's Finds in Mathematical Physics_, an archive of which is at
           | https://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/TWF.html. His more current
           | blog is available at https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/.
        
         | hggigg wrote:
         | 30 years ago I spoke to a fairly well known and regarded
         | physicist who said something rather interesting along the same
         | lines. Quoting as accurately as I can _" physics looks sexy
         | from the outside due to some celebrities but inside it's mostly
         | worse than anyone wants to admit."_. He also suggested I go and
         | study mathematics instead because at least there will likely be
         | some applications for it. I did and I am glad I did.
        
           | Gooblebrai wrote:
           | Sounds like this criticism would be valid for fundamental
           | physics but there are many other physics fields with
           | experimental results that become technology.
        
             | retrocryptid wrote:
             | if you want to do applications, engineering will get you a
             | 10% higher salary for the same job.
        
             | jerf wrote:
             | Yes, there's definitely some interesting fields that are
             | making progress that are still in the purview of "physics".
             | Materials science, or condensed matter physics, is doing a
             | lot of fascinating work with quasiparticles:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasiparticle There's a
             | number of fields you could call "quantum engineering" where
             | physics and engineering work together on the cutting edge.
             | Some of the output of that is why our TVs are so good.
             | 
             | There's a lot of work to be done on how big systems, where
             | "big systems" can be as small as hundreds or even dozens of
             | atoms, behave, where you can't "just" throw the whole
             | wavefunction into a computer and crunch away on it.
             | 
             | It's particle physics that seems to be stuck in a rut.
             | Fundamentally, they're starved for useful data. Until that
             | is resolved, the science really isn't going anywhere. Since
             | people on the internet frequently seem to operate on the
             | silly theory that someone pointing out a problem has some
             | sort of obligation to propose a solution, let me say
             | outright I have no more clue how to resolve this than
             | anyone else does, except to hope that some sort of other
             | progress in other fields creates new opportunities for new
             | experiments.
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | > Since people on the internet frequently seem to operate
               | on the silly theory that someone pointing out a problem
               | has some sort of obligation to propose a solution
               | 
               | The issue with Sabine is she tends to yell about anyone
               | proposing any solution. CERN would like to build a bigger
               | particle accelerator, but since it's not her favored
               | variant of accelerator they are obviously lying to the
               | public and wasting _your tax payer dollars_ which could
               | be spent instead on the (implied) guaranteed discoveries
               | if people would just listen to her.
               | 
               | (note also that this is a false dichotomy: any realistic
               | analysis any set of potentially competing projects would
               | generally conclude they're unlikely to be in competition
               | if they are in fact viable - we usually have plenty of
               | money to do both things provided they're likely to pay
               | off. But the under-developed, under-timelined thing is a
               | lot easier to promise the world with, yet far more likely
               | to wind up just as "clearly blown out it's budget!" as
               | the project being built).
        
               | randomNumber7 wrote:
               | She has reasonable arguments that the money could be
               | invested into more promising research.
               | 
               | It's ok you don't agree, but your only argument is to
               | attack her personally. Smells like you are personally
               | invested.
        
               | throwawaymaths wrote:
               | > CERN would like to build a bigger particle accelerator
               | 
               | Sabine has a point though. There isn't any specific thing
               | thing that a larger accelerator is likely to yield a
               | _positive_ answer on. Unlike the current biggest, which
               | was at least explicitly constructed to find the higgs.
               | 
               | And before you say dark matter, there's zero evidence
               | that dark matter particles will be in any given mass
               | range nor is there a solud model that predicts an
               | interaction that will generate such a particle.
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | The topic of _this_ video is that people are struggling
               | to find new paths forward due to a lack of experimental
               | data and a lack of results from theoretical approaches -
               | which ultimately is contingent on finding some new
               | experimental data they can predict.
               | 
               | So one way or another, it's quite likely you will need a
               | larger accelerator. Moreover, logistically, _not_
               | building that accelerator means you quite likely never
               | have it - CERN 's timelines go beyond 2050. The people
               | who would be operating the next generation of
               | accelerators haven't been born yet. If nobody is building
               | anything, the knowledge and know how to do it is likely
               | to be lost.
               | 
               | Like I said: it's a false dichotomy. It's one thing to
               | frame the problem as "we should spend some money on these
               | approaches which look promising". It's quite another to
               | frame it as " _those people are stealing all the money_
               | which should be spent on _obviously correct alternative_
               | ".
               | 
               | There is more then enough money to build everything,
               | provided a solid case can be made for it - and not "we
               | should do this" but "how we will do this". CERN tends to
               | win bids because they're not delivering a concept,
               | they're delivering a timeline and plan of _exactly_ how
               | they will get there.
        
               | GoblinSlayer wrote:
               | Do they need to be generated in interaction? If dark
               | matter particles have no charges except for mass, what
               | role can they play in interaction?
        
               | lamontcg wrote:
               | > It's particle physics that seems to be stuck in a rut.
               | 
               | You could look at the discovery of tetraquarks and
               | pentaquarks, and high precision tests of the standard
               | model though as a lot of progress.
               | 
               | What it hasn't done though is create some sexy upending
               | of our current models of physics, we keep asking
               | questions and mostly the responses coming back are in
               | line with theories that we knew 40 years ago. But that's
               | still a lot of experimental progress. There just isn't
               | any useful theoretical physics progress. All the beyond-
               | standard-model theories that might have been useful have
               | been falsified, and the ones that remain can be made to
               | predict anything and aren't useful. But we wouldn't know
               | that if there hadn't been a lot of experimental progress.
               | The LHC was an exceptionally useful experiment. It
               | destroyed more dreams of physics theories than any single
               | experiment ever before. Someone should go back and mark
               | up all the published articles and preprints that were
               | falsified by the LHC.
        
               | chii wrote:
               | > What it hasn't done though is create some sexy upending
               | of our current models of physics
               | 
               | which is fine imho. It's only been around 100 years since
               | that happened last time! Far too short to have another
               | one.
        
               | zepolen wrote:
               | I think this guy has hit the nail on the head:
               | https://energywavetheory.com/subatomic-particles/
               | 
               | Take a look at how stupidly complex the standard model is
               | compared to the other:
               | https://energywavetheory.com/equations/theory-comparison/
               | 
               | Everything in the universe on that site is eloquently and
               | simply explained, including gravity as a shading effect
               | (think an eclipse/water waves acting on an obstacle: http
               | s://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/attachment.php?attachmentid.
               | ..) ie. When a large mass causing the shading effect (eg
               | earth) absorbs energy waves acting on us it causing less
               | energy to reach you from the earth's direction and that
               | means energy from above us pushes us down to Earth. All
               | the math checks out too.
               | 
               | Yes, the entire theory is based on the fact that aether
               | exists, which has supposedly been disproved, but what if
               | that's incorrect and launched an entire wild goose chase
               | of alternative physics (string theory, standard model)
               | all based on a flawed assumption.
               | 
               | I think this reddit comment describes the situation
               | beautifully:
               | 
               | https://old.reddit.com/r/AskPhysics/comments/14o41lc/why_
               | doe...
        
               | wizzwizz4 wrote:
               | Anyone claiming that string theory is part of "the
               | standard model", when proposing their alternative theory,
               | is probably a crank.
               | 
               | Anyone deriving "E=mc2", and claiming that as evidence of
               | their theory, is _almost certainly_ a crank.
        
               | Risord wrote:
               | Sometimes I am wondering what if there is theory which
               | have been on right track but it's (false?) falsified and
               | already forgotten. Sure theory could be incomplete or
               | incorrect on some ways but would that right part be
               | noticed? For example I think it's too easy to imagine
               | world where relativity or quantum theory would be
               | socially falsified and/or left without any attention.
               | 
               | Simple example experience I had when I was beginning of
               | my physic studies (which I never finished) was when
               | discussed with elder/smarter student about wheel
               | friction. I was explaining that I had figured out that
               | wheel spin actually matters when there is also side slip.
               | [Total slip direction is dependent from spin speed.] But
               | because he -knew- that wheel spin does not matter and he
               | -knew- that he was better/smarter/etc. he was so focused
               | to correct my mistake I was unable to convince him. How
               | much this happens on higher stakes?
               | 
               | So if situation is that there has not been much progress
               | for a long time I think it could be valuable also
               | understand these failed theories and of course very
               | importantly why they are falsified.
               | 
               | When I am working with hard problem I usually go this
               | order:
               | 
               | 1. Describe the problem.
               | 
               | 2. Describe bunch of naive solutions.
               | 
               | 3. Describe problems in those naive solutions.
               | 
               | 4. "Describe problems in those problems": Why some of
               | those problems do not hold water. Those can be
               | workarounded, fixed or they actually are not really
               | problem in this case or maybe some combination of naive
               | solution properties gives working solution.
        
               | wizzwizz4 wrote:
               | Did you run the experiment? I don't think wheel spin
               | _does_ matter when there 's side slip. It matters when
               | there would otherwise be static friction (e.g. if you're
               | in a car with an ABS system), but I don't think it
               | matters when it's just kinetic friction. (Of course,
               | there are other kinds of friction, which might behave
               | differently. I'm no friction expert. I imagine things get
               | _weird_ when water 's involved, though.)
        
               | Risord wrote:
               | For some reason I cannot reply to your comment wizzwizz4.
               | 
               | We are talking about dynamic friction in it's simplest
               | form. You can treat it as simple math problem too. Let's
               | consider two extreme cases:
               | 
               | A: Side slip is 1m/s and wheel spin zero or very small.
               | 
               | B: Side slip is 1m/s and wheel spin extremely big, let's
               | say 1000m/s.
               | 
               | I think we can agree that friction is always opposite to
               | surface speed. If wheel spin is on x axis and side slip
               | on y:
               | 
               | On A case friction is (0, 1).normalized() * friction-
               | coefficiency => (0, friction-coefficiency)
               | 
               | On B case friction is (1000, 1).normalized() * friction-
               | coefficiency => [approximately] (friction-coefficiency,
               | 0)
               | 
               | On classroom teacher says that slip does not matter. What
               | teacher actually means that slip does not effect into
               | -magnitude- of friction but this is left behind because
               | problem is presented in context of 1D. Tho in 1D slip
               | still matters little bit because there is difference is
               | slip 1m/s or -1m/s.
        
               | wizzwizz4 wrote:
               | > _I think we can agree that friction is always opposite
               | to surface speed._
               | 
               | This isn't intuitively obvious to me. One explanation
               | says "must be true", another explanation says "might be
               | false". I'd want to run an experiment with a toy car on a
               | polished surface. Unfortunately, I'm quite a way from the
               | nearest place I could set up such an experiment.
        
               | Risord wrote:
               | In another words friction slows movement down and does
               | not treat some direction on surface more preferable than
               | others. Assuming regular surface this is pretty much
               | definition of friction.
               | 
               | I am not sure how well I have explained stuff but if you
               | are able to experimentally disprove this it's worth of
               | paper.
        
               | aeonik wrote:
               | I just read quite a bit of the summary.
               | 
               | Honestly, I don't really care if they are cranks. The
               | theory makes for a fun read, and they have a lot of
               | interesting ideas.
               | 
               | Trying to identify where their theory is wrong is a fun
               | exercise, at least for me. It also helps reinforce my
               | existing physics knowledge when I see multiple
               | perspectives, or alternative models of measurable
               | phenomena.
               | 
               | The cool part about this theory is they have some pretty
               | specific predictions, like the resting mass of the
               | Neutrino (~2.2eV).
               | 
               | They also hypothesize that the Electron is made up of 10
               | Neutrinos arranged in a Tetrahedral pattern, and also
               | hypothesize that the weak force can be explained via
               | solar Neutrino bombardment. Which would theoretically be
               | pretty easy to test, just test the radioactive decay of
               | different materials in different Neutrino densities.
        
               | jerf wrote:
               | There hasn't been a total lack of progress by any means.
               | 
               | Unfortunately, "confirming the standard model again in
               | some new way", while good science, also does nothing to
               | get particle physics out of its rut.
               | 
               | I originally wrote "useful" science when I first wrote
               | that sentence, but... it's debatable how useful it is,
               | actually. People have been taught that measuring the
               | utility of science is heresy, but I find that insane. It
               | is completely possible to have science that isn't that
               | useful, even to other science, let alone to any other
               | purpose. Confirming the standard model yet harder isn't
               | really useful. Of course, you have to run the experiments
               | to confirm the standard model, in the hopes that maybe it
               | won't, I'm saying the _result_ of confirming the standard
               | model is of debatable utility.
        
           | zarzavat wrote:
           | IANAP but it seems that fundamental physics suffers from a
           | lack of monotonicity of knowledge. Although physics does its
           | best to explain things, those explanations are more like
           | guesses than known facts. A theoretical physicist can have
           | their life's work undone simply because someone else comes up
           | with a better guess, or experiment says no. You spend your
           | life working on SUSY and then... nope. Even very established
           | knowledge can be overturned.
           | 
           | People will say "that's science" and indeed that's
           | fundamental _physics_ , but other fields don't really work
           | like that.
           | 
           | In chemistry and biology, certainty isn't in such short
           | supply. Nobody is asking "but _is_ DNA a double helix? "
           | Researchers take a problem, they attack it, then they publish
           | the results, it gets replicated (or not), and the set of
           | knowledge grows.
           | 
           | Mathematics is more similar to chemistry and biology insofar
           | as mathematical knowledge takes the form of an ever-growing
           | set of proven facts generated by research. Take a problem,
           | prove it, other mathematicians check it, the set of knowledge
           | grows.
           | 
           | Fundamental physics has issues because the "check" stage now
           | often costs millions or billions of dollars (build a particle
           | accelerator, neutrino detector, gravitational wave detector,
           | satellite, etc), and even then it might not give a definitive
           | answer. Just look at the g-2 situation where they notice a
           | discrepancy, they spend millions of dollars trying to
           | determine if this single discrepancy is real, and then
           | someone publishes a paper "haha I recalculated it, you just
           | wasted your time".
           | 
           | Not a criticism of fundamental physics because clearly that's
           | just how it is. I'd rather have guesses than ignorance. The
           | gravitational wave research seems to be doing okay at least.
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | SUSY was never "established knowledge". It was a stack of
             | increasingly baroque theories that had little or no
             | experimental justification.
        
             | empiko wrote:
             | ELI5 what is the G2 situation?
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | g-2. g minus 2. g is the magnetic moment of an electron.
               | It is expected to be very close to 2. g minus 2 is a
               | value that can be measured, and that can be calculated,
               | both very precisely.
               | 
               | If I understand the current situation, for electrons g-2
               | agrees between experiment and measurement to 10 digits.
               | For muons, though, it doesn't. (Muons are harder to
               | measure, because they decay. And they are somewhat less
               | well understood theoretically, so there's room on both
               | sides of that question.)
        
       | btilly wrote:
       | The fundamental reason for this is simple. Humans are prone to
       | cognitive dissonance. Meaning, we do absurd things to avoid
       | painful thoughts. And anything that questions our sense of
       | identity, is a painful thought.
       | 
       | So if my self-image is, "I've advanced our understanding of the
       | fundamental nature of reality," then the idea that my
       | contributions weren't useful becomes painful. So we avoid
       | thinking it, challenge people who question our past
       | contributions, and so on.
       | 
       | The natural result of this cognitive dissonance is a feeling of
       | undue certainty in our speculations. After all certainty is
       | merely a belief that one idea is easy to believe and its
       | opposites are hard to believe. We imagine that our certitudes are
       | based on fact. But they more easily arise from cognitive biases.
       | 
       | And this is how a group of intelligent and usually rational
       | people descend into theology whose internal contradictions can't
       | be acknowledged.
        
         | ricksunny wrote:
         | This is beautifully articulated.
         | 
         | And reinforces my general below-the-line (layperson) fear about
         | the state of physics today (as reinforced ofc by the likes of
         | Sabine Hossenfelder & Eric Weinstein).
        
           | btilly wrote:
           | Thank you for the compliment.
           | 
           | I've been working on how to formulate that idea clearly for a
           | while. It is a problem that goes well beyond physics. For
           | example I believe that the same cognitive error is behind the
           | fact that experts do significantly worse than chance in
           | actually predicting the world, and the more certain the
           | expert sounds, the less likely they are to be right. See
           | https://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-
           | Know/d... for data demonstrating that fact.
           | 
           | Depressingly, this means that we consistently put public
           | policy in the hands of people who are demonstrably
           | incompetent.
        
             | phkahler wrote:
             | >> I've been working on how to formulate that idea clearly
             | for a while. It is a problem that goes well beyond physics.
             | 
             | It's a really fundamental thing in psychology. The solution
             | is something like the destruction of the ego, and many
             | people who push hard enough to be a PhD tend toward larger
             | ego to start with. Meditation and practicing martial arts
             | can help. Apparently psychedelics can as well.
             | 
             | It's a real pain because if you try to tell someone their
             | ego is preventing them from seeing things clearly... Well
             | that's going to trigger the same problem. So yes, it's good
             | to find ways to articulate the message so it can get
             | through to those that suffer from it the most.
        
               | btilly wrote:
               | The problem is that we need an ego to be healthy.
               | Attempts to destroy it can wind up compromising your
               | mental health.
               | 
               | The first part of the solution is to be careful what's in
               | your ego. See https://paulgraham.com/identity.html on
               | this topic. See https://blog.codinghorror.com/the-ten-
               | commandments-of-egoles... for how careful choices in what
               | we value in ourselves, can lead to thinking better.
               | 
               | This of course still leaves us with an identity. For that
               | I've found that gratitude can help us deal with pain. And
               | so targeted gratitude can help us avoid cognitive
               | dissonance when we otherwise would be overrun by it.
               | 
               | Sadly, neither skill is widely taught in our society.
        
               | andsoitis wrote:
               | > The problem is that we need an ego to be healthy.
               | Attempts to destroy it can wind up compromising your
               | mental health.
               | 
               | You only need to destroy it temporarily. When you do it
               | using certain tools or techniques, it will reconstitute
               | by itself once the effect of the tool or technique has
               | passed.
               | 
               | This temporary ego death can open your eyes without
               | creating a permanent void where your ego used to be.
        
               | btilly wrote:
               | Anecdotally I've seen such claims, but have seen mixed
               | results as well. I've also encountered people who clearly
               | had an ego about how little ego they had. Yes, it was
               | just as ridiculous as it sounds.
               | 
               | I've never seen anything that looks like solid research
               | on the topic.
        
             | pmontra wrote:
             | Given infinite outcomes, experts in a field without a
             | theory of the world that can be used to calculate the
             | future will always perform worse than chance.
             | 
             | Experts of engineering perform better than non experts.
             | However the field of political behavior (or economy) is
             | difficult. The only way to know what's going to happen is
             | wait for it to happen.
             | 
             | Sometimes you know more or less what's going to happen but
             | not the details or the exact outcome. That's enough to make
             | plans.
             | 
             | Examples: at the beginning of 2024 we average persons knew
             | that Putin would win the Russian elections no matter what.
             | We average persons also knew that either Trump or Biden
             | would win the American ones but we didn't know whom. We
             | have to wait. Then surprise, it became either Trump or
             | Harris.
             | 
             | Maybe there are people around the world or even the USA
             | that wonder why Obama don't run for president instead of
             | Harris. They are not experts of the rules of the
             | competition.
             | 
             | So the question is, do the experts predictions are
             | consistently worse than the predictions of any randomly
             | picked person?
        
               | btilly wrote:
               | Experts who felt certain about their ideas did worse than
               | chance, and worse than simplistic models.
               | 
               | Experts who quantified uncertainty and tried multiple
               | theories did better than both chance or simplistic
               | models.
               | 
               | Sadly, the experts who felt certain presented themselves
               | with confidence and got higher paying jobs.
               | 
               | Normal people were not in the data set reported. He's
               | since done more research on good predictions. You can
               | read _Superforecasting_ by the same author for more.
        
             | Enk1du wrote:
             | Some more reading on cognitive errors and expertise for you
             | https://www.amazon.com/Blind-Spot-Solution-Right-
             | Front/dp/00...
             | 
             | >Depressingly, this means that we consistently put public
             | policy in the hands of people who are demonstrably
             | incompetent.
             | 
             | You could depress yourself further by thinking that we get
             | the government we deserve or you could re-assess your role
             | in making good progress.
             | 
             | "A community is like a ship, everyone should be prepared to
             | take the helm." - Henrik Ibsen
        
         | mort96 wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
           | tsimionescu wrote:
           | It's in the video: LQG is not a promising, or even a
           | plausible, physical theory. That's the idea.
        
           | dang wrote:
           | " _Don 't be snarky._"
           | 
           | " _Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation
           | of what someone says, not a weaker one that 's easier to
           | criticize. Assume good faith._"
           | 
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
           | 
           | (I'm sure you could rephrase your point here as a substantive
           | thought in a respectful way and then it would be fine)
        
         | jancsika wrote:
         | > So if my self-image is, "I've advanced our understanding of
         | the fundamental nature of reality," then the idea that my
         | contributions weren't useful becomes painful.
         | 
         | Only if one believes the logical fallacy that the dependent
         | steps of a process of elimination weren't useful.
        
           | btilly wrote:
           | Even if you believe that they are useful, you're also not
           | going to wind up as a hero in the history books. And so
           | people wind up acting in the same way.
           | 
           | Besides, the argument that all of the bad ideas contributed
           | to discovering the right one, is as strong as the empirical
           | argument that white chairs are evidence that all ravens are
           | black. Logically you're right. Discovering the right idea
           | requires disproving all of the wrong ones. Similarly "all
           | ravens are black" is logically the same as its
           | contrapositive, "all non-black things are not ravens". It's
           | just that you've just decided to focus on a search space that
           | is so much bigger, that each data point in it becomes much
           | less important.
        
           | lazide wrote:
           | Eh, in many ways the problem is a sunk cost fallacy type
           | issue.
           | 
           | If someone is later in their career and looking at having to
           | throw away all that time - time they will never recover - it
           | takes someone really special to just do it.
           | 
           | And by really special I mean 'kinda suicidal sometimes'.
        
         | randomNumber7 wrote:
         | To extend this, group dynamics can come into play too.
         | 
         | I once worked at a startup that developed fancy new tec. The
         | group dynamic there was that critical thinking absolutely did
         | not exist. The reason was probably that they accepted only
         | people in their circle, that had the same burning positive
         | attitude towards the idea.
         | 
         | This can become a self reinforcing circle, because critically
         | thinking people will leave at some point. (Like sabine did in
         | physics).
        
         | tjs8rj wrote:
         | This is where climate skepticism comes from by the way. Even
         | climate skeptics will acknowledge that climate scientists are
         | well educated, they don't deny science as a process of truth
         | seeking, the problem lies in the incentives.
         | 
         | There's a lot of prestige and grant money that comes with
         | insisting climate change is true.
         | 
         | There's a lot of political power that gets ceded to the people
         | in charge if we "just accept that we're in a crisis and us
         | elite are the only ones that can stop it".
         | 
         | I believe climate change is real and human caused, but many of
         | the claims and doomsday speak feel like self interested humans
         | following their incentives beyond the scientific truth
        
           | thedragonline wrote:
           | What are you talking about? I spent years munging climate
           | datasets from various research institutes around the world.
           | The upshot: it doesn't look good for humanity. I seriously
           | don't understand how a neutral third party can walk away from
           | this climate work and think, 'Nothing to see here folks.' The
           | denialism and willful ignorance of the potential catastrophic
           | consequences is something I find terribly disheartening. Mark
           | my words - the temperature records that keep getting broken
           | year after year are going to keep getting broken. Entire
           | towns going up in flames and cities being wrecked by
           | increasingly more powerful hurricanes will be the new normal.
           | <sigh>
        
             | smegger001 wrote:
             | Its hard to claim its a narrative created out of grant
             | money incentives when the first people to come to these
             | conclusions and make an acurate predictive model was the
             | oils companies who have tried to deny their own conclusions
             | ever since.
        
       | f1shy wrote:
       | I think in this an other videos, what she says is "they are not
       | even wrong" and she does have a point there.
        
       | FredPret wrote:
       | As a non-physicist, it's hard to understand if she has a point or
       | not.
       | 
       | Any physicists care to weigh in?
        
         | lamontcg wrote:
         | Follow the links to John Baez's thoughts ("the situation is
         | even a bit worse than she makes it sound"):
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41808143
        
       | farts_mckensy wrote:
       | Theoretical physics are theoretical; that seems to be the crux of
       | her problem. And in that light it makes sense that she's become
       | an influencer who makes content instead of someone who devotes
       | most of their time to advancing the science. Yes, oftentimes
       | people will be paid to work on problems, and they'll end up in a
       | cul-de-sac. That will be the case for the majority of the field
       | in the case of something like quantum physics. But if we pay
       | enough of these people to sit in rooms and work on problems,
       | maybe one of them will figure something out. That's how science
       | progresses.
        
         | lazide wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
           | farts_mckensy wrote:
           | There is no evidence to suggest that string theorists
           | designed the theory to be untestable.
        
             | lazide wrote:
             | After this much time and that much work, how is it possible
             | for a physics theory to _not have a single testable
             | /falsifiable prediction_ without it being intentional? It
             | has been _over 80 years_.
             | [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_string_theory].
             | 
             | The evidence is in the absence.
        
               | seanhunter wrote:
               | It predicted supersymmetry, which has been experimentally
               | disproved.
        
               | zachf wrote:
               | The kind of supersymmetry you're referring to (global
               | spacetime supersymmetry) is not required by string
               | theory; this is a common misconception. Looking for super
               | partners in a collider is actually only telling you about
               | global supersymmetry, which unlike local supersymmetry is
               | _not_ a universal feature of string theory at low energy,
               | in fact the opposite, it is probably non-generic. It so
               | happens that a class of appealingly simple vacua _do_
               | have this property, which led to some inappropriate
               | optimism among string theorists that has entirely abated
               | with more experiments. Unfortunately this has been widely
               | misunderstood to rule out the whole enterprise of string
               | theory, which is unreasonable for the reason stated
               | above, it is much more likely to not see SUSY below the
               | Planck scale. [0] (Unless you just like to mock string
               | theorists for hoping that the universe would be kind to
               | them.)
               | 
               | Also global supersymmetry has not been experimentally
               | disproved (how would you do this, even?) but it is true
               | that current or even near-term experiments are not nearly
               | sensitive enough to get close enough to answering this
               | definitively, which is obviously upsetting.
               | 
               | [0] https://ncatlab.org/nlab/show/string+theory+FAQ#DoesS
               | TPredic...
        
               | seanhunter wrote:
               | Not intending to mock anyone and I don't know nearly
               | enough physics to have a credible opinion either way.
               | Thanks for your explanation.
        
               | zachf wrote:
               | Don't worry, I didn't think you were :) you're welcome!
        
             | theendisney4 wrote:
             | That proves it!
             | 
             | I mean, you should prove they didnt. If that sounds
             | unreasonable we've made progress. Prove we didn't?
             | 
             | Ill let myself out
        
           | Shawnecy wrote:
           | Exactly. Consistently untestable and unfalsifiable claims for
           | decades has to be seriously questioned at some point, and I
           | think we're well beyond that point. This is especially true
           | for string theory. I'm particularly fond of how Angela
           | Collier laid out the timeline of string theory in her video
           | on it[0] as well as the consequences that science
           | communication is now facing as a result.
           | 
           | [0] = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kya_LXa_y1E
        
             | farts_mckensy wrote:
             | The same could've been said of atomic theory, neutrinos,
             | gravitational waves, the higgs boson, cmb radiation, plate
             | tectonics, and quantum mechanics at various points in time.
        
               | Shawnecy wrote:
               | Weren't those all arrived at from a series of falsifiable
               | predictions? What does string theory even predict that
               | can be tested?
        
               | mhh__ wrote:
               | As a non string theorist my understanding was that string
               | theory actually makes quite a lot of empirically
               | verifiable statements, just that those statements are
               | only interesting at either never or extremely high
               | energies.
               | 
               | I think ppl are asuming that sting theory comes from the
               | meme about turning 1+1 = 2 into some massive integro
               | differential equation. The world is rarely so simple.
        
               | drdeca wrote:
               | I've heard that it also predicts at very low precision,
               | some values that _are_ practically measurable, and,
               | unsurprisingly for how little precision these predictions
               | have, these predictions are correct (I.e. the
               | experimental results are within the predicted range).
               | 
               | (Or, maybe "a prediction" rather than "predictions"? I
               | only heard about one, and I forget what it was.)
        
               | btilly wrote:
               | I am aware of no case where it clearly made an advance
               | prediction of any behavior that later turned out to be
               | true.
               | 
               | I'm aware of quite a few where they managed to "predict"
               | something we already knew.
               | 
               | That said, they've made so many "predictions" that I'm
               | sure that some likely worked out by sheer coincidence.
        
               | drdeca wrote:
               | Oh, yes, I meant predict a value we had already measured
               | at the time the "prediction" was made. I should have made
               | that clear in my original comment. I would add it now
               | except that the editing time has run out. Maybe I should
               | have said "postdicted".
               | 
               | Actually, I think the value might have been something
               | like, the electron mass? Or something like that. (Which,
               | obviously, had been measured before string theory made a
               | "prediction" of it.)
        
               | seanhunter wrote:
               | I think the prediction you may be referring to is
               | supersymmetry, which was apparently empirically disproved
               | by the LHC, or at least the supersymmetric extension to
               | the standard model was disproved.
               | 
               | https://www.sciencenews.org/article/supersymmetrys-
               | absence-l...
        
               | farts_mckensy wrote:
               | You are making it sound as though string theorists are
               | asserting some kind of flying spaghetti monster theory.
               | Do you think these people are not genuinely interested in
               | advancing science? That's an ad hom fallacy. There is a
               | difference between a hypothesis being conceptually
               | unfalsifiable and a hypothesis that is incredibly
               | difficult to test from a practical standpoint, or
               | impossible with present energy constraints.
        
               | drdeca wrote:
               | I don't think the mistake made is exactly an ad hom
               | fallacy? I agree with the rest of your comment though.
        
               | btilly wrote:
               | That statement is only true for a few of the things on
               | your list..
               | 
               | Yes, it took a couple of decades to test the existence of
               | neutrinos. But, for example, general relativity was
               | successfully tested within 5 years of being published.
               | Gravitational waves were a prediction that took decades
               | before we could test them, but the theory itself had lots
               | of other verifications.
               | 
               | To date string theory has had many predictions that leads
               | to failed tests. But not a single successful test in its
               | favor.
        
               | slashdave wrote:
               | No, not really. All of those had reasonable, technically
               | addressable methods for testing.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | No you couldn't. And it's been 80 years now!!
               | 
               | All of those things you name came directly out of
               | attempts to create testable hypotheses from _experimental
               | observations_ , and all of them were tested as soon as
               | anyone could build an experiment apparatus or gather the
               | data to do it. Which didn't take that long considering
               | the extreme engineering difficulties in actually building
               | the apparatus for some of them.
               | 
               | String theory has avoided testability it's entire
               | existence, nearly a century now, and no one that I've
               | seen is even attempting to make an experiment to try to
               | test it - because at this point it's clear that no one on
               | the theory side is interested in making a testable
               | hypothesis. That isn't luck, that's talent and hard work.
               | 
               | It's one of the most absurd grifts I've personally seen
               | play out so far.
        
               | zachf wrote:
               | 80 years? I would date its birth as 1968-9 (Veneziano),
               | it's hard for me to imagine calling prior work than that
               | as "string theory". But never mind that--the bigger
               | problem with this (quite common) argument is that
               | _everything about quantum gravity_ , not just string
               | theory, has avoided testability because our other
               | theories are too good, and because we're limited to doing
               | experiments on Earth with equipment built on human scales
               | with human budgets, and that's just not where quantum
               | gravity would naturally make itself known. So really this
               | argument just suggests we shouldn't study quantum gravity
               | at all. Maybe that's your actual opinion--it's a waste of
               | time if we can't access the Planck scale, we should table
               | it all and sit on our hands until we can. But string
               | theory really is quite interesting to study, stuff like
               | AdS/CFT is just really surprising and magical when you
               | get what it's about, and it would be a real pity to not
               | pay the meager salaries of theoretical physics just
               | because of pessimism. String theory is so far from fully
               | understood! It's actually...really hard!
               | 
               | BtW I think you got this 80 years number from looking at
               | the earliest date on the Wikipedia page. You might want
               | to read it more carefully. Not everything leading up to
               | string theory is string theory.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | Fair enough - 50 to almost 60, not counting s-field
               | precursor work.
               | 
               | I'm not saying string theory isn't potentially
               | interesting from a mathematics perspective, I'm just
               | saying treating it like physics (which is, explicitly
               | about testable/falsifiable theories) is BS.
               | 
               | If we were honest about it, it would be a maths
               | speciality eh?
               | 
               | At least until there are more clear attempts at making
               | testable hypotheses.
               | 
               | But that would cause other issues with funding I imagine.
               | 
               | If quantum loop gravity comes up with a testable
               | hypotheses, then hey, maybe I'm wrong. But so far, not so
               | much yeah? And I'm not talking 'we'd need to spend a lot
               | of money to test it', I mean an _actual testable
               | /falsifiable hypotheses_ at all.
        
           | btilly wrote:
           | I think that you have half a point. You're absolutely right
           | that just because people are paid to think about things,
           | doesn't mean that they are making progress. And there is a
           | lot of evidence that this is true today in the foundations of
           | physics.
           | 
           | However string theory was not intentionally untestable. In
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRzQDyw5C3M she gives a good
           | history of why it was originally invented, what testable
           | predictions it made, how it failed those tests. And then how
           | string theorists who were trying to find relevance for their
           | work tried to keep it going as it stumbled into being
           | untestable.
        
             | lazide wrote:
             | Fair point, I guess. It's easy to also see how it just
             | mostly ended up there. Still. A problem.
        
           | mhh__ wrote:
           | This is a very cruel reading of string theory. Intentional?
           | What?
        
           | ndsipa_pomu wrote:
           | How is it "intentionally untestable"? I get that it is
           | practically untestable, but as far as I know, there are
           | people working to try to find some possible tests.
        
           | dang wrote:
           | " _Please don 't post shallow dismissals, especially of other
           | people's work. A good critical comment teaches us
           | something._"
           | 
           | " _Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation
           | of what someone says, not a weaker one that 's easier to
           | criticize. Assume good faith._"
           | 
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
             | lazide wrote:
             | Hardly a shallow dismissal dang, as the replies show. It's
             | a very valid critique of where it has ended up, and goes
             | right to the heart of the underlying problem.
             | 
             | The challenge is if it's intentional from the start, or
             | merely ended up being intentional at the end eh?
             | 
             | And the folks arguing that the underlying critique are
             | false, as shown in the follow-ups, are wrong.
             | 
             | If anything, it's just getting downvotes because people
             | don't realize how on the nose it actually is, near as I can
             | tell.
        
               | dang wrote:
               | Sorry, but your GP comment consisted of nothing but
               | putdowns--not just of an entire field but of the people
               | working in it. That is a classic shallow dismissal in the
               | sense that we use the term. Not a borderline call!
        
         | Koshkin wrote:
         | > _enough of these people_
         | 
         | There's more than enough already. (And, historically, you only
         | need less than a dozen.)
        
           | ants_everywhere wrote:
           | > (And, historically, you only need less than a dozen.)
           | 
           | This seems initially like a pretty outlandish claim to me.
           | Could you clarify what you're referring to here?
        
             | btilly wrote:
             | I'm not the one you're replying to, but the claim seems
             | very reasonable to me.
             | 
             | Fundamental breakthroughs in how to think about scientific
             | subjects usually are created by fairly small groups of
             | people. A lot more people are involved in popularizing it,
             | and then filling out the details. But it is rare for it to
             | start with a large number of people.
             | 
             | For example that list in the case of quantum mechanics was
             | Max Planck, Albert Einstein, Niels Bohr, Louis de Broglie,
             | Max Born, Paul Dirac, Werner Heisenberg, Wolfgang Pauli,
             | and Erwin Schrodinger.
             | 
             | You can think of this as the scientific version of the 2
             | pizza rule.
        
               | feoren wrote:
               | Humans sure love this story. A dozen Founding Fathers
               | created the United States. A dozen physicists invented
               | quantum mechanics. A dozen innovators caused the
               | Industrial Revolution. It's always wrong.
               | 
               | Ask any of those dozen people where they got _their_
               | ideas and (if they 're honest) they'll each have another
               | dozen people to name, and so on. Ask them who made minor
               | contributions and suggestions and they'll again have
               | dozens of people to name. Science is an ever-expanding
               | body of work that always builds on its past successes and
               | it's the height of naivete to reduce humanity's effort in
               | a subject down to its few most visible people. It makes
               | for good stories and trivia questions, but it's extremely
               | far from the actual truth.
               | 
               | And even if it _were_ true: how could you possibly
               | identify those dozen people _beforehand_? It 'd be like
               | walking into a publishing house and proclaiming that
               | everyone there is stupid because they waste all this
               | money on books that don't end up best-sellers. Why don't
               | they just _only_ invest in the future best-sellers? Are
               | they stupid?
        
               | btilly wrote:
               | I partly agree. A conceptual breakthrough always rests on
               | a foundation to which many contributed. All of whom, in
               | some sense, contributed. But my reading of history says
               | that the reconceptualization that leads to intellectual
               | breakthroughs themselves usually only involve small
               | numbers of people.
               | 
               | If you've read _The Structure of Scientific Revolutions_
               | , what I'm saying is that new paradigms are usually
               | created by very small numbers of people. But they have
               | both a foundation and their further success from the
               | contributions of many.
               | 
               | I'm very much not offering an opinion on a great man
               | theory of history in fields outside of science. Your
               | example of the American Revolution is entirely off topic.
               | 
               | I'm also very much not saying that who will contribute
               | what is in any way predictable. At best, the necessary
               | collision of circumstances to make the breakthrough
               | possible is chaotic, and therefore cannot be predicted.
               | Nor did anyone else. The original point a few posts up
               | was that, even if though there might be a haystack of
               | clearly wasted effort, there may still be a needle
               | powerful enough to make up for the rest.
        
               | feoren wrote:
               | All good points, but remember the claim in question was:
               | 
               | > But if we pay enough of these people to sit in rooms
               | and work on problems, maybe one of them will figure
               | something out.
               | 
               | and the response that you called "very reasonable" was:
               | 
               | > There's more than enough already. (And, historically,
               | you only need less than a dozen.)
               | 
               | So you were agreeing with someone who said we are paying
               | too many physicists. There are too many people studying
               | this problem. Okay, let's get rid of some then. Which
               | ones?
               | 
               | > I'm also very much not saying that who will contribute
               | what is in any way predictable
               | 
               | Uh oh, then how do we know who to get rid of? Which
               | physicists should we not be paying? The claim that we
               | should fire a bunch of scientists because we "only need
               | less than a dozen" is nonsense, and you called this claim
               | "very reasonable", with more examples. But maybe I should
               | have replied to that person instead. It's a little
               | awkward trying to have an N-way conversation when you can
               | only reply to one response at a time.
        
               | btilly wrote:
               | The statement that there's more than enough, is not the
               | statement that we should be firing them. It's a statement
               | that we don't want more.
               | 
               | But if we had to fire some, I'd recommend ones who are
               | not willing to do research outside of oversubscribed
               | ideas. That's because the lack of success of existing
               | lines of research means that additional effort there is
               | less likely to work out than looking at less
               | overpopulated approaches.
        
               | phkahler wrote:
               | >> For example that list in the case of quantum mechanics
               | was Max Planck, Albert Einstein, Niels Bohr, Louis de
               | Broglie, Max Born, Paul Dirac, Werner Heisenberg,
               | Wolfgang Pauli, and Erwin Schrodinger.
               | 
               | Those were not the only people working in that field at
               | the time. Not by a long shot. In order to have pioneers
               | in a field, there has to BE a field with a bunch of
               | people in it.
        
               | btilly wrote:
               | You're right that these were not the only people working
               | on the set of problems that lead to QM. Lots of people
               | were thinking about the same problems at the same period
               | of time. And lots more added to it later.
               | 
               | But what key concept underlying how we now think about QM
               | doesn't go back to this list of people? OK, add Richard
               | Feynman if you want to include the second breakthrough to
               | QED.
               | 
               | Ideas that look like conceptual breakthroughs can usually
               | be traced back to small numbers of people. Ideas that
               | look like progress usually trace back to much larger
               | groups.
        
               | reshlo wrote:
               | > What key concept underlying how we now think about QM
               | doesn't go back to this list of people?
               | 
               | Off the top of my head: quarks, and therefore the
               | existence of the colour charge quantum number; and the
               | Higgs field.
               | 
               | All of the people in the list were also building on prior
               | research by the likes of James Clerk Maxwell and Ludwig
               | Boltzmann. Einstein himself said "I stand on the
               | shoulders of Maxwell."
               | 
               | There are other obvious candidates for inclusion like
               | Henri Poincare, Hendrik Lorentz, Satyendra Nath Bose...
        
       | pvg wrote:
       | For the context, the video this is a follow up to is helpful
       | (they're both short) -
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlHvW6k2bcM
        
       | whatshisface wrote:
       | If LQG turns out to be unworkable, we're back at string theory as
       | the only renomalizable description of quantum gravity.
       | 
       | Quantum gravity research amounts to one professor per university
       | faculty on average. Even in the worst case this would not be the
       | crisis of unmet expectations it is made out to be... QG
       | researchers are very brave because they are risking everything on
       | the possibility that existing data constrains quantum gravity in
       | a way that hasn't yet been understood. I doubt there is even a
       | single person making that gamble unaware that the Planck energy
       | density is something like 20 orders of magnitude above present-
       | day experiments.
        
         | naasking wrote:
         | > we're back at string theory as the only renomalizable
         | description of quantum gravity.
         | 
         | I think you mean, we're back at "we're not sure if string
         | theory is a viable theory of anything real".
         | 
         | Quantized gravity is not necessarily the right answer, and an
         | insistence on this fundamental assumption might be the origin
         | of these difficulties, eg. see Oppenheim's semi-classical
         | gravity.
        
       | m101 wrote:
       | I've said this before in not the same words, and I am always
       | downvoted here on hackernews: people need to understand theory of
       | knowledge before they understand science. Physics and physicists
       | are the worst offenders.
        
         | feoren wrote:
         | If by "theory of knowledge", you mean they need to have read a
         | bunch of philosophical musings on epistemology, then I strongly
         | agree with the downvoters, because that's utter nonsense. If
         | you mean anything else by that, then you're being way too vague
         | to contribute to a technical discussion, so again I agree with
         | the downvoters. Try defining what you mean by "theory of
         | knowledge" and explain _why_ you think that 's required to
         | "understand science" (and you might want to explain what you
         | mean by that too) and I suspect you'll see a lot fewer
         | downvotes.
        
           | m101 wrote:
           | Theory of knowledge "is a branch of philosophy that examines
           | the nature, origin, and limits of knowledge". Scientists need
           | to understand the limits of knowledge which may be acquired
           | by science.
           | 
           | Scientists think they are in the unique possession of tools
           | which ascertain truths - this is misled.
        
         | btilly wrote:
         | This strongly depends on what you mean by "theory of
         | knowledge".
         | 
         | If you mean the practical importance of self-honesty, and a
         | historical awareness of how easily we slip into self-delusion,
         | then I agree. See, for instance,
         | https://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm for a
         | very famous speech on exactly this topic. A lot of Feynman's
         | writing touches on the same issue.
         | 
         | If you mean the musings of philosophers on epistemology, then I
         | emphatically disagree. The philosophers in question generally
         | have failed to demonstrate that they understand science. And
         | when they venture into science, they generally fail to live up
         | to the ideals that they proclaim that scientists should follow.
         | As an example I direct you to the sight of Karl Popper arguing
         | to the end of his days that quantum mechanics cannot be a
         | correct scientific theory. An opinion that began because a
         | probabilistic theory cannot in principle be falsified.
         | 
         | In fact QM is a scientific theory, and it stands as an example
         | falsifying Popper's criterion for science!
         | 
         | I find it very ironic that Feynman is so disliked by
         | philosophers for having been honest about how irrelevant they
         | are to science. And philosophers in turn have failed to
         | recognize Feynman's explanations of how to do science as a key
         | topic that should be included in any proper philosophy of
         | science.
        
           | m101 wrote:
           | I meant your second perspective.
           | 
           | I'm in the Popper camp on your example. You may have good
           | reasons as to why you say he's wrong, but isn't that the
           | scientific method: showing things to be false. If it can't be
           | shown to be false then how can it be scientific? It might be
           | some other branch of thought.
           | 
           | On the specific case of quantum mechanics - I want to see
           | these forever promised quantum computers actually doing
           | something useful. The promises went from (Vs classical
           | computers) they will do everything faster, to they will do
           | some things faster, to they will do some things not
           | achievable at all. And yet, they still haven't done anything
           | as far as I can tell. Physicists need to answer honestly for
           | this.
        
         | hyperbrainer wrote:
         | Amusingly, the International Baccalaureate Diploma Programma -
         | an A-Levels like uni-prep course - has a subject called TOK:
         | Theory of Knowledge with these intentions.
        
           | m101 wrote:
           | And it was with people of this very course that I have been
           | impressed by. They learnt things at a young age and it stayed
           | with them.
        
       | ants_everywhere wrote:
       | My understanding of the situation (which may be wrong, in which
       | case please let me know) is that physics is stuck at a local
       | optimum.
       | 
       | There are two obvious ways to get out
       | 
       | (1) Surprising physical observations, or
       | 
       | (2) Mathematical advances
       | 
       | Way (1) is what kicked off quantum mechanics. Way (2) is what
       | kicked off Newtonian mechanics.
       | 
       | I see string theorists and loop quantum gravity people as working
       | on (2). Their models are mathematically interesting and aren't
       | totally understood from a mathematical perspective. But they're
       | different enough that studying them may break the impasse.
       | 
       | I see (1) as largely limited by the budgets and technology needed
       | to build things like particle accelerators and spacecraft.
       | 
       | For (2) you have to decide whether to only explore mathematics
       | that defines physical reality, or whether to also allow
       | exploration of non-physical systems. For example, you might
       | explore a universe that is almost physical but has time machines.
       | Restricting the search space to only physically realistic systems
       | is a significant constraint, so there's a debate to be be had
       | about how much weight to give it.
        
         | slashdave wrote:
         | (1) is also limited by imagination
        
           | tines wrote:
           | Isn't it (2) that's limited by imagination? Nobody imagined
           | quantum theory, they observed it first.
        
         | Ma8ee wrote:
         | Those mathematical advances weren't developed in a vacuum, but
         | made to solve some very specific problems which came from
         | better measurements. So even Newtonian mechanics originated in
         | solving problems trying to explain measurements, not that
         | someone sat in their chamber and dreamed up cool math that
         | happened to be very useful.
        
           | ants_everywhere wrote:
           | I agree.
           | 
           | Generally, the scientific method has mutually recursive turns
           | of theory and observation. And I don't mean to imply that
           | exist independently.
           | 
           | I'm just saying that if you get stuck, the two clearest ways
           | out are to provide more observations or perturb the theory.
        
           | killerstorm wrote:
           | Number theory and algebraic geometry were developed for their
           | own sake (i.e. "it is cool"), but later people found
           | practical applications in cryptography.
           | 
           | So "useful math must be motivated by practice" is empirically
           | false
        
             | Ma8ee wrote:
             | > So "useful math must be motivated by practice" is
             | empirically false
             | 
             | That was not the claim. The claim is that useful _physics_
             | originates in measurements.
        
         | ordu wrote:
         | _> physics is stuck at a local optimum._
         | 
         | I think I heard somewhere that the trouble with string theory
         | is it can describe anything if you tune it just in a right way.
         | It reminds me of epicycles, they also had this property, you
         | can add more and more epicycles to describe literally any
         | observation data.
         | 
         |  _> Way (1) is what kicked off quantum mechanics. Way (2) is
         | what kicked off Newtonian mechanics._
         | 
         | Hmm... What was the way that kicked Copernicus to redraw
         | epicycles with the Sun in the center? I mean, is there some
         | notes on these? For example, Newton took as granted that
         | celestial bodies move by elliptical orbits, and somehow he
         | guessed that the gravitation law has r^2 in its denominator,
         | and so he invented calculus to prove, that if you have r^2 in
         | the denominator then you'll get elliptical orbits. The question
         | where Newton got his guess it remains open for me, but back to
         | Copernicus, what was his way?
         | 
         | Maybe he thought how movements of planets will look if seen
         | from the Sun, and so he had redrawn epicycles to take a look,
         | and he got circles? (I'm not sure that it could work this way,
         | I propose this answer to my question just to give an example of
         | the kind of an answer I'd like to have).
         | 
         | I ask this question for two reasons.
         | 
         | 1. I believe that Copernicus advanced the science not with
         | surpising physical observation and not with mathematical
         | advances, to me it seems more like surprising mathematical
         | observation. I'm not sure what was that observation exactly.
         | 
         | 2. Can one apply techniques of Copernicus to the modern
         | physics? I suspect that it will not. I'm sure physicist already
         | tried everything and there were (is) a lot of them and they are
         | pretty smart people, so it is highly unlikely that Copernicus
         | can help them in any way. But I'm still curious, what
         | Copernicus would do? Would he tried to imagine how electron
         | flying through a double-slit might observe scientists-
         | observers? Or maybe it would try to feel the pain of a black
         | that may believe that the whole universe is falling on it? I
         | bet that the true Copernicus idea would require to use some
         | pretty hard mind-altering substances, and I like such ideas.
        
           | WillAdams wrote:
           | My understanding as a layman:
           | 
           | 1. Copernicus figured out that if you put the sun at the
           | center, then epicycles weren't necessary, and the math got
           | easier --- because epicycles were based on a mis-
           | understanding of the actual state of the universe --- I don't
           | believe that anyone has identified such a non-alignment of
           | fact and reasoning and observation for contemporary physics.
           | 
           | 2. The problem is, modern physics is arguably getting boxed
           | into a corner by approaching an end game state where the
           | fundamental particles are getting identified, but are so
           | small and difficult to separate out, that measurements are
           | challenging to the point that while one can speculate and do
           | math, actually proving out the speculations experimentally
           | and taking actual measurements is expensive or so difficult
           | to reason about that there doesn't seem an obvious path to an
           | experiment, e.g., it looks as if the electron may be a
           | fundamental particle, which is a sufficiently difficult
           | concept to parse that it led to "The one-electron
           | universe"/"The single electron hypothesis" and if that is the
           | case, it walls off a not insignificant portion of particle
           | physics at a size/state which can't be gotten smaller than.
        
             | nyokodo wrote:
             | > Copernicus figured out that if you put the sun at the
             | center, then epicycles weren't necessary
             | 
             | Actually, his model assuming circular orbits still required
             | epicycles to explain retrograde motion etc. A major reason
             | it never caught on was that it was less accurate than the
             | Ptolemaic model but was more of a mathematical curiosity
             | rather than a serious contender.
        
               | verzali wrote:
               | Yep, it didn't really seem convincing until Kepler
               | replaced the circles with ellipses, and even that step
               | took a lot to move past established ideas about the
               | perfection of nature.
        
             | allturtles wrote:
             | 1. is a common belief, but mistaken. Copernicus didn't get
             | rid of epicycles: https://farside.ph.utexas.edu/books/Synta
             | xis/Almagest/node4....
        
           | canjobear wrote:
           | Copernicus used the same circular-orbit-plus-epicycles system
           | as Ptolemy, just the orbits were centered around the sun
           | (kind of---each planet had its own circle, with the sun only
           | approximately in the middle). The system actually had more
           | epicycles than Ptolemy's and was less accurate. It wasn't an
           | advance in any meaningful sense.
           | 
           | The real breakthrough was Kepler, who dropped the idea that
           | planets moved in circles. It was indeed partly a mathematical
           | breakthrough and the reason Kepler's work took a while to
           | catch on is that people couldn't understand his math at
           | first. But it was also empirical, as Kepler had access to new
           | and much more precise observational data collected by his
           | mentor Tycho Brahe.
        
             | btilly wrote:
             | I'd say that Galileo spotting the phases of Venus was also
             | a big deal.
        
             | moomin wrote:
             | IIRC what this comes down to is Copernicus had no desire to
             | tangle with the church. I remember reading he has some
             | footnotes that go "Hey, obviously it works in epicycles but
             | the maths works really well with ellipses and
             | heliocentrism."
        
           | ahazred8ta wrote:
           | Before Newton, Kepler already figured out that orbits were
           | ellipses. Newton figured out _why_ orbits are ellipses.
        
           | moomin wrote:
           | I can probably answer the r^2 question: it's the scaling
           | associated with the surface area of a sphere. So if you have
           | light source, or a sound source, that's how it scales with
           | distance. It would have been relatively simple for someone as
           | smart as Newton to guess that gravity worked the same way.
           | 
           | It's only really our current understanding of gravity that
           | makes it unobvious.
        
         | throwawaymaths wrote:
         | Name a single physics phenomenon that was discovered purely
         | with way 2. I can only think of one, the positron.
         | 
         | Newtonian physics was not kicked off by math "advances".
         | Approximately speaking it was the other way, Newton created the
         | math to explain p^2 ~ r^3, which was a surprising observation.
         | 
         | Even theory of relativity wasn't really a math advance, the
         | math was already mostly worked out by mach, lorenz, and
         | minkowski. Einstein put it together into a coherent story (v.
         | Important)
        
           | zburatorul wrote:
           | The Higgs.
        
             | cb321 wrote:
             | Also, the W's and the Z.. neutrino oscillations. There is
             | actually a long list. Physics is the poster child science
             | of theory-experiment interplay and this shows up constantly
             | in the philosophy of science and other things resulting in
             | expressions like "physics envy" (
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physics_envy ).
        
       | lagpskd wrote:
       | > What's even more insane is that the only two people I can think
       | of who have pushed back against this are Peter Woit and Eric
       | Weinstein, and both of them are trying to sell you their own
       | theory of everything
       | 
       | Sabine forgot Stephen.
       | 
       | https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2021/11/the-concept-of-t...
        
         | btilly wrote:
         | Not exactly. She's just admitted that he isn't someone she
         | thought of. And that's likely because she's far more aware of
         | the contributions of physicists to this field, than the
         | attempted contributions of non-physicists. It's not that she's
         | not aware that they exist - in fact she's painfully aware that
         | there are a great number of them saying all sorts of things -
         | its that she's not individually aware of them.
         | 
         | That said, if she had thought of him then she would have merely
         | increased her sample size from 2 to 3, and still had the exact
         | same conclusion.
        
           | lupire wrote:
           | What absurd definition are you using that makes Stephen
           | Wolfram not a physicist?
           | 
           | Wolfram is more of a physicist than most physicists.
           | 
           | Wikipedia:
           | 
           | He entered St. John's College, Oxford, at age 17 and left in
           | 1978[17] without graduating[18][19] to attend the California
           | Institute of Technology the following year, where he received
           | a PhD[20] in particle physics in 1980.[21] Wolfram's thesis
           | committee was composed of Richard Feynman, Peter Goldreich,
           | Frank J. Sciulli and Steven Frautschi, and chaired by Richard
           | D. Field.[21][22]
           | 
           | In the mid-1980s, Wolfram worked on simulations of physical
           | processes (such as turbulent fluid flow) with cellular
           | automata on the Connection Machine alongside Richard
           | Feynman[29] and helped initiate the field of complex
           | systems.[citation needed] In 1984, he was a participant in
           | the Founding Workshops of the Santa Fe Institute, along with
           | Nobel laureates Murray Gell-Mann, Manfred Eigen, and Philip
           | Warren Anderson, and future laureate Frank Wilczek.[30] In
           | 1986, he founded the Center for Complex Systems Research
           | (CCSR) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.[31]
           | In 1987, he founded the journal Complex Systems.[31]
           | 
           | From 1992 to 2002, Wolfram worked on his controversial book A
           | New Kind of Science,[4][33] which presents an empirical study
           | of simple computational systems. Additionally, it argues that
           | for fundamental reasons these types of systems, rather than
           | traditional mathematics, are needed to model and understand
           | complexity in nature. Wolfram's conclusion is that the
           | universe is discrete in its nature, and runs on fundamental
           | laws which can be described as simple programs. He predicts
           | that a realization of this within scientific communities will
           | have a revolutionary influence on physics, chemistry,
           | biology, and a majority of scientific areas in general, hence
           | the book's title
        
             | nabla9 wrote:
             | Wofram was a child prodigy but he quit physics.
             | 
             | It's not like you can stop doing something as a young
             | person and be relevant or be competent just because you are
             | smart. "A New Kind of Science" is not very deep book. It's
             | graphically beautiful, but it contains lots of hand waving.
             | 
             | He has gradually descended into crackpot regime.
        
             | btilly wrote:
             | You are right.
             | 
             | But let's reduce it down to physicists working in quantum
             | gravity, who publish in journals that such physicists
             | typically publish in. Give that this is Sabine's
             | background, this is who she will be aware of. For all that
             | he's done, I'm pretty sure that Wolfram's works have not
             | been published in such journals.
             | 
             | Roger Penrose is an even better example. His claims to be a
             | physicist include a Nobel prize. But people working in
             | quantum gravity dismiss his theories, so he doesn't publish
             | in the right places, and so Sabine didn't think of him.
             | 
             | In short, Sabine is only likely to think of people in this
             | context because their scientific work intersected hers.
        
       | retrocryptid wrote:
       | i love sabine. she's speaking the lived experience of quite a few
       | of us who lost faith in the academy.
        
         | phkahler wrote:
         | I like her message, but some of her recent videos have me a
         | little worried about her. She seems on the edge of a breakdown
         | at times.
        
           | retrocryptid wrote:
           | yeah. she does seem like she's on the edge of throwing down
           | f-bombs, flipping tables and screaming "i'm out of here."
           | guess it's to her credit she hasn't done that.
        
           | antegamisou wrote:
           | > She seems on the edge of a breakdown at times.
           | 
           | Academia does this to you. She's a really well controlled
           | case.
        
       | rapjr9 wrote:
       | I have a pet conspiracy theory for why there has been so little
       | progress in physics for so long. The invention of the nuclear
       | bomb scared a lot of people, it made them scared of physics. What
       | else might physicists turn up that could change the world in
       | dramatic ways? Anti-gravity? Ray guns? Other dimensions? Travel
       | to other worlds? All bad for business, no one is going to buy
       | your airplanes or air craft carriers if they can buy an anti-
       | gravity machine. So physics was suppressed by both business and
       | government. Physicists were given "safe" work to do (ITER,
       | quants) that would occupy them and keep them from exploring wild
       | stuff. Grant financing was controlled so that only safe research
       | would be conducted. It would be fairly invisible to the world,
       | just a few high level decisions would determine how the funding
       | was directed. I get the impression that if this was indeed a
       | conscious decision that it's starting to fall apart as younger
       | generations take over and become frustrated with the direction of
       | physics. They weren't there when the A-bomb was invented, and
       | nuclear weapons have not been on peoples minds much for a long
       | time, most people have not lived in a time when one was used. So
       | they see interesting topics and want to explore them and
       | encounter resistance from more established scientists. It's a
       | conspiracy theory because it would involve some buy-in from a
       | fair number of physicists to make it work, but a lot of
       | physicists when I was getting my BA in physics were very loudly
       | saying "never again" about atomic weapons and felt it had
       | tarnished the whole profession. It's very difficult to say what
       | humanity would be capable of handling in terms of radical new
       | inventions. Anti-gravity could solve many large problems, but it
       | might make it even easier to destroy Earth. Once new knowledge
       | exists it is hard to suppress it. Stopping it from from ever
       | existing seems easier. I guess we'll find out if physics has been
       | suppressed if the dam breaks and new ideas start proliferating.
       | The nature of the new physics would be a big clue as to whether
       | research in it was suppressed. I'm reminded of Elon Musk, he
       | seems to have had really radical success in some very stagnant
       | industries, just by trying instead of accepting limits, and being
       | able to fund his ideas himself.
        
         | ManuelKiessling wrote:
         | The theory stops working imho if you take competition into
         | account. The world is not aligned as a single bloc of power.
         | While it's not completely unthinkable (but extremely unlikely,
         | imho) that some scientists plus some decision makers from, say,
         | the liberal west might collude to achieve this kind of
         | suppression, their counterparts from one or multiple other
         | blocs might not, because they want to dominate and anti-gravity
         | guns surely give you some nice advantage.
        
           | theendisney4 wrote:
           | You'd be amazed how quickly powerful discoveries find
           | military purpose.
        
             | WillAdams wrote:
             | An important thing to consider here is that the first
             | engineering project which had to make use of Einstein's
             | Theory of Relativity was GPS --- the time/position
             | calculations to triangulate location based on satellites is
             | so exacting that it has to take into account gravimetric
             | distortions based on the receivers being further down in
             | the gravity well than the GPS satellites:
             | 
             | https://xkcd.com/808/
        
               | theendisney4 wrote:
               | This seems fun
               | 
               | https://www.alternativephysics.org/book/GPSmythology.htm
               | 
               | Why would the receaver need a clock if they are comparing
               | pulses from satelites. All the satelites are all up
               | there.
        
           | rapjr9 wrote:
           | The desire to dominate can take a weird turn if using your
           | anti-gravity guns reveals them and makes it likely others
           | will soon invent the same. There is precedent for this, say
           | in electronic warfare or cyberwarfare. As soon as you reveal
           | your uber virus, anyone can take it apart and modify it for
           | their own purposes. So you don't reveal it except as a last
           | resort. Competition doesn't come into play then, everyone
           | hides their secret weapons and never uses them unless they
           | have to, and tries to make sure information in that area is
           | suppressed. However, as I say in other comments, this may
           | have been a bottom up conspiracy, not a top down conspiracy,
           | though it may have moved to the top as the scientists
           | themselves gained power. But the fear would still exist at
           | all levels; sure your anti-gravity gun gives you an
           | advantage, but what if it eventually causes random micro
           | black holes to appear near where you use it, obliterating
           | infrastructure before evaporating? We just don't know what
           | the repercussions of new technologies will be, and while the
           | risks have seemed low in areas like software, the risks seem
           | higher with fundamental new physics. People are historically
           | pretty bad at predicting how technology/science will play out
           | in the long term. AI was a joke for a long time, until it
           | wasn't. The internet was hailed as revolutionary, but it
           | seems very different than it did in the year 2000. It's a lot
           | like computer security, you can imagine the possibilities,
           | but you probably can't imagine ALL the possibilities. It
           | takes time and collaboration to scope out what it is that is
           | new that can now be accomplished. That uncertainty scares
           | some people and excites others. Seems kind of like walking
           | through a minefield littered with Christmas presents. Some
           | people might decide to leave the presents where they are.
        
         | theendisney4 wrote:
         | Perhaps this is of interest to you.
         | 
         | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yTiztUNrhhM
        
           | rapjr9 wrote:
           | I'd heard the name LaRouche but I've never read his history:
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyndon_LaRouche
           | 
           | Quite astounding, he seems to have been both woke in some
           | ways (climate change) and fundamentally misguided. I can see
           | a lot of Trump's playbook in his life. I was imagining a much
           | more passive conspiracy, people refusing to participate for
           | ethical reasons, rather than an elite conspiracy by the
           | Venutians/Illuminati. The video seems unintelligable, he
           | makes so many references to obscure history that may or may
           | not be true (and how would he know?) it becomes meaningless
           | without years of research and even then, the intentions and
           | thoughts of historical figures are difficult to ascertain.
        
             | theendisney4 wrote:
             | Yeah, would take years to fact check.
        
         | kragen wrote:
         | What time frame are you talking about here? Starting in 01950,
         | 01995, 02010?
         | 
         | If we're talking about 01995, it's conceivable that, say, the
         | US and CERN could coordinate to suppress research into hafnium
         | bombs, AVLIS, antigravity, or whatever. If we're talking about
         | research much prior to that point, though, you'd have to
         | include the Russians in the conspiracy. Probably not just any
         | Russians, either; probably Khrushchev, Brezhnev, Andropov,
         | Tsar-Bomba-era Sakharov, and his successors. And, on the other
         | side, people like J. Edgar Hoover, JFK, McNamara, Kissinger,
         | Johnny von Neumann, and Teller.
         | 
         | I don't want to say it's literally _impossible_ for Brezhnev or
         | his underlings to have made a secret agreement with Kissinger
         | and Teller to suppress the development of theoretical physics
         | in order to keep the world predictable. But I do think it 's
         | pretty implausible, and there would have been an enormous
         | incentive to cheat on any such secret agreement.
         | 
         | In the 01990s, though, it could have become plausible. But,
         | remember that that's also when Pakistan became a nuclear
         | weapons state, shortly followed by North Korea in 02006. And
         | the People's Republic of China has had nuclear weapons since
         | 01964, so they evidently had significant physics capabilities
         | that they were willing to use for warfare (which was a huge
         | priority; Mao reorganized the country's economy to resist an
         | anticipated US invasion), and they dominated the TOP500
         | supercomputer list until this year, when they withdrew from it
         | in apparent protest against the efforts of the USA to reverse
         | their technological progress with a worldwide system of export
         | controls.
         | 
         | So I think there's maybe a ten-year window when this could have
         | happened somewhat, about 01992 to 02002. Both before and after
         | that, there are too many countries with strong physics
         | communities that are too bitterly opposed to make such
         | cooperation plausible.
        
           | rapjr9 wrote:
           | Reading the comments here my thinking has been revised. I'm
           | no longer suggesting the elites were conspiring, at least
           | initially, I'm suggesting the physicists were conspiring for
           | ethical reasons. Some of them may have moved up the ladder
           | and reached positions of some power. Physics is magic to most
           | people, hiding possibilities in math and technicality seems
           | possible. Anyone who has written code professionally has
           | probably been faced with similar decisions, biases can be
           | encoded, and you have to decide how you are going to approach
           | these things. For example, do you add a race field to the
           | medical database or not? In 1990 it was often left up to the
           | programmer. Sometimes things are decided far below the level
           | of the people running the show. Regardless, I do think my
           | theory is far fetched, innate curiosity seems likely to have
           | caused some people to explore further regardless of the
           | risks, and an overt conspiracy that eventually reached high
           | levels seems likely to have been soon discovered.
        
           | These335 wrote:
           | I have never seen someone prefix dates with a zero like this.
           | Why are you doing that?
        
         | rapjr9 wrote:
         | There are some good comments here, thanks! There has been an
         | international component to physics research cooperation. It
         | seems not inconceivable that physicists in many countries,
         | meeting at paper conventions and such might have agreed and
         | recruited each other to try to prevent the next atomic bomb
         | type invention. So while competition between countries is
         | certainly real, competition between scientists might be
         | somewhat different. You'd think there would be some people who
         | would pursue it regardless, but they'd probably have to work
         | with a team, and not everyone on the team may have supported
         | the goals. It's just a theory, but it has some plausibility.
         | Perhaps there are people everywhere who have decided not to be
         | part of endeavors that could be disruptive and they've done us
         | all a favor or have kept us from discovering the secrets of the
         | universe. Who knows? The ethics of science has been mostly left
         | to chance and individual decisions.
        
         | carapace wrote:
         | Some secrets keep themselves.
        
           | 082349872349872 wrote:
           | > _" The universe is full of magical things patiently waiting
           | for our wits to grow sharper."_ --EP
        
         | pfdietz wrote:
         | An easier theory is that the Standard Model is so good that
         | it's very difficult to find anywhere it fails. So there's no
         | experimental fuel to propel physics forward.
        
           | rapjr9 wrote:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unsolved_problems_in_p.
           | ..
        
       | dang wrote:
       | If you want to reply to
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41811140 or say something
       | Sabine-adjacent, please do it here.
       | 
       | (This is so https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41808143 doesn't
       | get too offtopic)
        
         | gizajob wrote:
         | She was ripping on the valuations and economics of quantum
         | computing companies the other week, and her critiques were such
         | that they could be levelled against capitalism itself and
         | basically any company in the market. Was an obvious and clear
         | step way out of her area of expertise.
        
           | lamontcg wrote:
           | That doesn't have anything to do with her criticism of Loop
           | Quantum Gravity, and is precisely the derailing of the topic
           | that dang is asking you to avoid.
        
             | skhunted wrote:
             | When people don't have expertise in an area they are prone
             | to making really dumb comments. She has a history of this
             | on other topics. As such I think it's appropriate to
             | mention so that people can evaluate how much weight/time
             | they want to spend on her video and views.
        
               | lostmsu wrote:
               | Do you have expertise in the area of deciding source
               | trustworthiness or relevancy in certain fields?
        
               | skhunted wrote:
               | I do not. I do have a sense of the notion and make
               | decisions for myself on whether or not something is worth
               | my time. While her video might be accurate in this case
               | her past casts doubt in my mind and as such I've decided
               | not to watch it. Other people might find it useful to
               | know about her past errors when deciding whether or not
               | to watch this video.
        
         | davorak wrote:
         | "sensational style" is one part but another is that it is hard
         | to extract truth from Sabine's videos, at least for me, not
         | without doing some serious research as someone with a PhD in
         | physics.
         | 
         | Example starting at ~1:00 "Carlo Rovelli is fine with the
         | theory being untestable for practical purposes. So now the
         | situation is that either the theory is falsified or its not
         | falsifiable..."
         | 
         | Is Carlo Rovelli fine with it not being testable, in that he is
         | fine with research continuing even though it can not be tested
         | with up coming experimental set ups? That is reasonable lots of
         | research goes on for long periods of time with out experimental
         | verification. From a funding point of view it makes sense to
         | allocate more money to things that have a tighter feedback loop
         | though. If Sabine was going to expose howe much money was going
         | to these topics and where it could be better spent that would
         | be worth watching.
         | 
         | Or is Carlo Rovelli ok with the theory being unfalsifiable in
         | the sense that that he is ok with the research not being
         | science? This is the straight forward meaning of Sabine's
         | words, but are a negative attack, and one that would come off
         | as a personal attack to many scientists I have known, one that
         | she does not back up with anything immediately and then goes on
         | to make more negative comments like "and Carlo complains to me
         | because he thinks I do not understand his genius".
         | 
         | Ok if Sabine was going to expose Carlo Rovelli as someone who
         | was not really practice science but was getting paid to be a
         | scientist that would be awesome to watch and learn about. That
         | does not happen.
         | 
         | "everyone who works on this just repeats arguments that they
         | all know to be wrong to keep the money coming" - accusation of
         | scientific fraud and defrauding the government.
         | 
         | Ok what percentage and total amount of founding is going to
         | this? Is there anyone who has come forward? It would be awesome
         | to watch something that exposed something like this. That does
         | not happen either.
         | 
         | ~3:19 - Arguments saying loop quantum gravity require space to
         | be quantized, but they can not be lorentz invariant without
         | having the quantization go to zero volume, according to Sabine,
         | and no one has done that and extracted back out loop quantum
         | gravity.
         | 
         | I am experimentalist and this is not my area. I would want to
         | see a link to a paper/book etc. The analogy to the angular
         | momentum operator comes off as a good place to start
         | investigation/research but is treated dismissively, anologies
         | like this often do not apply in the end but can still be
         | useful.
         | 
         | 3:53 ~ "length contraction should make that minimal area
         | smaller than minimal proof by contradiction"
         | 
         | Ok that does not seem like the gottcha that it is laid out to
         | be. Interesting stuff happens where their are apparent
         | contradictions in physics. If experimental/observational
         | evidence about A produces theory TA and
         | experimental/observational evidence about B produces theory TB
         | and they contradict each other in conditions C that is an
         | interesting point to study look in to etc. This may not be
         | interesting for other reasons, but the apparent contradiction
         | does not make it obviously non interesting.
         | 
         | ~4:27 ~ "this can't work because these deviations would
         | inevitably so large we'd have seen them already" -
         | 
         | Why did Sabine talk about it being a mathematical contradiction
         | if you can make the theory work, but it leads to physical
         | phenomenon that we do not observe?
         | 
         | I can not make those two arguments jive in to a cohesive whole.
         | Not that it can not happen, but I can not from this video and
         | that is the conclusion, or similar, I normally reach when
         | watching Sabine's videos and why I do not watch or recommend
         | them generally.
         | 
         | I do not see any of the interesting things I mentioned above
         | being discussed or dug into in comments so far or other new
         | interesting takes. The issue for Sabine's videos, at least for
         | me, is not the "sensational style".
        
           | btilly wrote:
           | Well, if you want a simple argument from authority, John
           | Carlos Baez's confirmation that she's right is pretty good.
           | If you want a better one, she very rarely gets any of her
           | facts wrong.
           | 
           | Now let's go point by point.
           | 
           |  _Is Carlo Rovelli fine with it not being testable, in that
           | he is fine with research continuing even though it can not be
           | tested with up coming experimental set ups?_ He is arguing
           | for a version of the theory that can 't be tested, is
           | continuing to do research on it, and presumably thinks that
           | he is doing science.
           | 
           |  _If Sabine was going to expose howe much money was going to
           | these topics and where it could be better spent that would be
           | worth watching._ Discussing how these things wind up getting
           | funded would be a very different video. And would not likely
           | be interesting to most of her audience.
           | 
           |  _Or is Carlo Rovelli ok with the theory being unfalsifiable
           | in the sense that that he is ok with the research not being
           | science?_ Presumably he thinks that he is doing science.
           | Sabine 's opinion clearly is that this isn't really science.
           | However she only claims her opinion as her opinion, not
           | established fact.
           | 
           |  _Ok what percentage and total amount of founding is going to
           | this?_ Again, that would be a very different video. In 10
           | minutes for a general audience, you have to make decisions
           | about what you will and will not cover. It 's not a valid
           | criticism of her that she made a choice. Particularly in a
           | video that she disclaims as a personal rant.
           | 
           |  _Arguments saying loop quantum gravity require space to be
           | quantized, but they can not be lorentz invariant without
           | having the quantization go to zero volume, according to
           | Sabine, and no one has done that and extracted back out loop
           | quantum gravity._ This is not according to her, this is
           | according to an argument that comes from Lee Smolin. A region
           | of space that has a specific amount of area will, according
           | to special relativity, have a smaller area according to an
           | observer that is traveling fast enough. By having the
           | velocity as close as you want to C, you can make the area
           | arbitrarily small. So your choice is to violate Lorentz
           | invariance, or have arbitrarily small areas. If you violate
           | Lorentz invariance, the speed for light will depend on the
           | wavelength.
           | 
           | As her previous video at
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlHvW6k2bcM said, this
           | prediction of Lee Smolin has been tested to extremely high
           | precision, and the predicted effect was not seen. That
           | version of LQG has been falsified. The alternative supported
           | by Carlo Rovelli is that you need to average out over quantum
           | areas in all reference frames. This is a neat idea, but in
           | several decades, nobody has made it work. Until someone can
           | make it work, LQG can't produce any testable predictions.
           | 
           | Please note that John Baez, who worked on LQG for 10 years,
           | specifically complimented her presentation of this particular
           | issue. Her description of where research stands is accurate.
           | 
           |  _I am experimentalist and this is not my area. I would want
           | to see a link to a paper /book etc._ Rants generally do not
           | come with properly cited references. That said, the previous
           | video that this refers back to is based on https://arxiv.org/
           | abs/2402.06009?utm_source=substack&utm_med..., which is one
           | of the experimental tests showing that Lee Smolin's
           | prediction is false.
           | 
           |  _The analogy to the angular momentum operator comes off as a
           | good place to start investigation /research but is treated
           | dismissively, anologies like this often do not apply in the
           | end but can still be useful._ It was a good place to start.
           | After 20 years of research that has failed to turn that idea
           | into anything workable, most people would conclude that this
           | is an analogy that will not apply in the end. But apparently
           | Rovelli gets mad at anyone who doubts that it will work out.
           | One of the triggers for this rant was whatever Rovelli said
           | to her in private. Personally, I excuse her for being human
           | here in her reaction.
           | 
           |  _Ok that does not seem like the gottcha that it is laid out
           | to be. Interesting stuff happens where their are apparent
           | contradictions in physics._ No, it really is the gotcha it
           | claims to be. It 's directly inside of the math. This
           | demonstration is no different than, say, proving that sqrt(2)
           | is irrational by proving that if you start with the smallest
           | fraction that equals it, you can find a smaller one.
           | 
           | The conclusion of that gotcha is exactly what she said: if
           | there's a minimal area then you can't have Lorentz
           | invariance. And conversely, if you have Lorentz invariance,
           | then you can't have a minimal area. Experimentally, we have
           | tested for the Lorentz invariance to be expected from a
           | minimum area based on the Planck length. It does not exist.
           | And therefore there isn't Lorentz invariance.
           | 
           |  _Why did Sabine talk about it being a mathematical
           | contradiction if you can make the theory work, but it leads
           | to physical phenomenon that we do not observe?_ Her previous
           | video (that triggered the nasty emails)_made this point more
           | clearly. She 's saying that there is a mathematical
           | contradiction between having minimal areas and Lorentz
           | invariance. This forces us to choose to have one or the
           | other. Minimal areas leads to a testable and now falsified
           | theory. Lorentz invariance has yet to lead to a theory that
           | doesn't blow up with unnormalizable infinities, let alone one
           | which can produce a testable prediction.
           | 
           |  _I can not make those two arguments jive in to a cohesive
           | whole. Not that it can not happen, but I can not from this
           | video and that is the conclusion, or similar, I normally
           | reach when watching Sabine 's videos and why I do not watch
           | or recommend them generally._ Is that Sabine's fault, or
           | yours? This video is much lower quality than her normal ones.
           | And yet absolutely none of what you think are flaws, do I
           | think is one. Every one of your objections has an answer that
           | jives. And the conclusion is agreed with by John Baez, whose
           | background on this specific topic is much stronger than
           | yours.
           | 
           | Perhaps, rather than looking for things to complain, you
           | should try figuring out what she actually said. In my
           | experience it is logically internally consistent. Even though
           | it skewers some sacred cows.
        
             | davorak wrote:
             | > Well, if you want a simple argument from authority, John
             | Carlos Baez's confirmation that she's right is pretty good.
             | If you want a better one, she very rarely gets any of her
             | facts wrong.
             | 
             | It is not what I want. I read the linked comment by John
             | Carlos Baez[1] and do not agree with the wording of your
             | conclusion "that she's right". There is some alignment, but
             | you have removed any nuance.
             | 
             | > Again, that would be a very different video. In 10
             | minutes for a general audience, you have to make decisions
             | about what you will and will not cover. It's not a valid
             | criticism of her that she made a choice. Particularly in a
             | video that she disclaims as a personal rant.
             | 
             | My specific comments are about why I do not find value in
             | Sabine's video not about not about a general audience. The
             | over all arch is a point that I do not find her videos or
             | the discussions in the comments valuable on hacker news in
             | response to Dang's comment:
             | 
             | > so I think we can give this thread a second chance
             | 
             | [2]
             | 
             | So my comments are not about how she decides to reach her
             | general audience.
             | 
             | I think this covers some of your pervious comments too.
             | 
             | > This is not according to her, this is according to an
             | argument that comes from Lee Smolin.
             | 
             | "What I said in my pervious video" is what she said in her
             | video. So this idea may not have originated from her, but
             | my word choice is correct by saying according to her. This
             | does no assert she came up with the idea or is 100% sure of
             | it.
             | 
             | > A region of space that has a specific amount of area
             | will, according to special relativity, ...
             | 
             | > ...
             | 
             | > Please note that John Baez, who worked on LQG for 10
             | years, specifically complimented her presentation of this
             | particular issue. Her description of where research stands
             | is accurate.
             | 
             | My comment about about the video and why it is not useful
             | to me or useful seeing it on HN, not about the correctness
             | or incorrectness of Sabine's statements which is what you
             | seem to be addressing here.
             | 
             | > It was a good place to start. After 20 years of research
             | that has failed to turn that idea into anything workable,
             | most people would conclude that this is an analogy that
             | will not apply in the end. But apparently Rovelli gets mad
             | at anyone who doubts that it will work out. One of the
             | triggers for this rant was whatever Rovelli said to her in
             | private. Personally, I excuse her for being human here in
             | her reaction.
             | 
             | You are making some assumptions here and empathizing with
             | Sabine, which is understandable. Arrogant Physics professor
             | gets mad when someone questions their pet theory is not
             | unrealistic but is not headline worthy either. Does it
             | matter if he was mad? Is this any different than any other
             | celebrity spat? If not, that is not what I read HN for.
             | 
             | > Rants generally do not come with properly cited
             | references.
             | 
             | I know it was a rant, I saw the labeling. That does not
             | help make it good material for HN or lead HN commenters to
             | interesting and curious comments though. The reverse is
             | often true regardless of the source of the rant.
             | 
             | > No, it really is the gotcha it claims to be. It's
             | directly inside of the math. This demonstration is no
             | different than, say, proving that sqrt(2) is irrational by
             | proving that if you start with the smallest fraction that
             | equals it, you can find a smaller one.
             | 
             | Physics is not practiced like math though, so it is
             | different. A contradiction in physics theories is not the
             | same as saying true = false in math. Experimental evidence
             | and observation rule the day until we find the fundamental
             | laws of physics, after that it will be more like math(well
             | at least some physics will).
             | 
             | > Her previous video (that triggered the nasty emails)_made
             | this point more clearly. She's saying that there is a
             | mathematical contradiction between having minimal areas and
             | Lorentz invariance. This forces us to choose to have one or
             | the other. Minimal areas leads to a testable and now
             | falsified theory. Lorentz invariance has yet to lead to a
             | theory that doesn't blow up with unnormalizable infinities,
             | let alone one which can produce a testable prediction.
             | 
             | Comments like this, and much of what you said before this,
             | lead me to think Sabine's pervious video would be less
             | likely to cause me to write a comment like I did.
             | 
             | > Is that Sabine's fault, or yours?
             | 
             | Nothing I have said is about Sabine being at fault of
             | something. I can stand corrected if something I wrote was
             | too misleading though.
             | 
             | > This video is much lower quality than her normal ones.
             | 
             | This seems like it would argue against Dang giving this
             | Sabine video an exception.
             | 
             | > Perhaps, rather than looking for things to complain,
             | 
             | That is not what happened here. My response was to Dang
             | about giving this video a exception and the comment on
             | "sensational style".
             | 
             | > you should try figuring out what she actually said.
             | 
             | And if I was having a conversation with Sabine or if I was
             | corresponding with her then both people are responsible for
             | reaching out to cover any communication gaps. That is not
             | what this is, this was Sabine's rant as labeled by her and
             | you.
             | 
             | > Even though it skewers some sacred cows.
             | 
             | I do not think Sabine's videos "skewer sacred cows". At
             | least not any in the physics community at large, maybe some
             | sub disciplines. The physic's community at large does not
             | seem to have many if any sacred cows, that is my experience
             | at least.
             | 
             | [1]
             | https://mathstodon.xyz/@johncarlosbaez/113285631281744111
             | 
             | [2]
             | 
             | > so I think we can give this thread a second chance
             | 
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41811140
        
               | btilly wrote:
               | Your complaint is that it is hard to extract truth from
               | her videos.
               | 
               | However extracting truth from what you said is trivial if
               | you believe that what she reports as fact, is fact. And
               | what she reports as her opinion, is her opinion. If you
               | pick any 5 videos you want, I'd be happy to help you spot
               | check them. Just like I did with this one.
               | 
               | Now I'd like to pull out three specific issues.
               | 
               | 1. Your point about settling physics with experiment is
               | not applicable here. The result is about what the math
               | will predict if you make a specific assumption in a
               | specific mathematical model. Testing that is like trying
               | to test the frequency with which 1+1 gives you 3. It's a
               | question of logic. What becomes a question of experiment
               | is whether a particular model is a good description of
               | reality.
               | 
               | 2. She may not be skewering cows that are sacred to all
               | of physics. But a lot of her videos skewer cows that are
               | sacred to some group, and she's constantly getting an
               | earful about it.
               | 
               | 3. Why this video? The reason why I voted for it was not
               | quality, but topic. I think it is very important to be
               | aware how easily branches of science become
               | pseudoscience. And with John Baez' support, it's clear
               | that her complaint is more than simple sour grapes. See
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41808404 for some of
               | my thoughts that are specific to this topic.
        
               | davorak wrote:
               | > Your complaint is that it is hard to extract truth from
               | her videos. > > However extracting truth from what you
               | said is trivial if you believe that what she reports as
               | fact, is fact. And what she reports as her opinion, is
               | her opinion.
               | 
               | So the level of doubt and or critical thinking I apply to
               | Sabine's videos is not much different than what I would
               | apply to a physic paper out of journal and I feel like I
               | can often apply less than what I apply while reading many
               | popular science articles. That is no where close to the
               | level of trust I would put in to a well grounded physics
               | text book though.
               | 
               | This sort of doubt is critical to most people while
               | reading journal articles, double checking, verifying, not
               | assuming ground truth for what a paper says to uncover
               | hidden assumptions, mistakes, and differing
               | interpretations.
               | 
               | ~"Just believe" is not conductive to learning science and
               | is not going to make for curious or simulating
               | conversation.
               | 
               | > If you pick any 5 videos you want, I'd be happy to help
               | you spot check them. Just like I did with this one.
               | 
               | You did not extract the value from this video though. You
               | reference other resources to try and get the value. I am
               | not interested in doing something similar with her other
               | videos.
               | 
               | > 1. Your point about settling physics with experiment is
               | not applicable here. The result is about what the math
               | will predict if you make a specific assumption in a
               | specific mathematical model. Testing that is like trying
               | to test the frequency with which 1+1 gives you 3. It's a
               | question of logic. What becomes a question of experiment
               | is whether a particular model is a good description of
               | reality.
               | 
               | If physical reality does not, can not matter to resolving
               | a question, your question may not be about physics. This
               | one point is not enough, like I said original, by itself,
               | to make the apparent contradiction obviously non
               | interesting.
               | 
               | > 2. She may not be skewering cows that are sacred to all
               | of physics. But a lot of her videos skewer cows that are
               | sacred to some group, and she's constantly getting an
               | earful about it.
               | 
               | Is the earful about any sacred cows though? Are their
               | other viable explanations You may have evidence for you
               | conclusion, but it is not here.
               | 
               | > I think it is very important to be aware how easily
               | branches of science become pseudoscience.
               | 
               | Sabine asserts this has happened to quantum loop gravity
               | but doe snot show it. If I thought what she said was true
               | and I wanted to make convincing case I would have to go
               | out and do considerable research and put together a case,
               | I could not simply reference this video.
               | 
               | > And with John Baez' support, it's clear that her
               | complaint is more than simple sour grapes.
               | 
               | Sour grapes normally means that when someone can not have
               | something they want they go negative on it instead. Does
               | this saying even apply here? Nothing in the video made me
               | think she was sour about anything.
        
               | btilly wrote:
               | My lengthy comment was not about value extracted in this
               | video, it was addressing your doubts about the
               | information in it. I personally got value from the
               | subject of the video itself. Which we did not discuss.
               | 
               | It really appears to me that you weren't trying to
               | address any value. What you describe as critical thinking
               | was merely searching for ways to object without thinking
               | too hard about whether it was a fair objection. As an
               | example I point to your failure to follow the trivial
               | mathematical argument saying that LQG models either have
               | to accept that there is no lower bound on quantized area,
               | or that they violate Lorentz invariance. You kept trying
               | to insist that this sounded like she was contradicting
               | herself (she wasn't), and this argument should be
               | resolved by some sort of experiment.
               | 
               | If this is truly the critical thinking that you take to
               | research papers, you're probably not doing nearly as good
               | a job of reading them as you imagine. Meanwhile, back in
               | the real world, I make a habit of attempting to figure
               | out how trustworthy and well-informed each source is. And
               | how objectively they report on what they think that they
               | know. I'm extremely pleased with Sabine. She's very
               | careful to only report as fact things which are true.
               | She's willing to express opinions with no regard to who
               | will agree or disagree. And she's clear on the difference
               | between her knowledge, opinion, and speculation.
               | 
               | Because of this, I've learned to trust her claims on
               | things that I can't independently verify. Her personal
               | reports on the behavior within LQG is of interest to me.
               | The independent confirmation from John Baez, who I've
               | known for years, trust, and has a completely different
               | point of view, makes her description extremely
               | trustworthy. Her claims on that topic are not something
               | that I can independently verify other than to decide
               | which primary sources I trust. And I've learned to trust
               | both Sabine and John.
        
         | j_crick wrote:
         | When I read the submission title here I immediately wondered if
         | it was Sabine again and, well, there she was.
        
         | knowitnone wrote:
         | she said some outlandish stuff in one video - I don't remember
         | which. I refuse to watch any more of her videos.
        
           | naasking wrote:
           | In other words, "she said something that completely
           | contradicted my prejudices and the cognitive dissonance was
           | uncomfortable, so I memory-holed what she said and
           | immediately dismissed her claims as non-factual and avoid her
           | from now on because I never want to experience that
           | dissonance again".
        
         | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
         | I don't like Sabine Hossenfelder's videos because they're too
         | short. When I want to relax after work by playing a game while
         | listening to someone drone on on youtube on a deep and esoteric
         | subject, her videos end way too soon, and with an advertisement
         | for her sponsor.
         | 
         | I just want to hear some rambling boffin expound for an hour in
         | the background on some matter that can't possibly raise more
         | than a few hundred views. I decided I don't like popular
         | science videos any more. Boo.
        
           | TexanFeller wrote:
           | Sean Carroll is my go to guy for long form physics and
           | philosophy discussions that have some depth but are still
           | accessible. His October AMA on the Mindscape podcast is over
           | 4 hours, but I haven't listened to it yet.
        
             | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
             | Thanks for the recommendation. I'll give it a go.
        
           | Timwi wrote:
           | > When I want to relax after work by playing a game while
           | listening to someone drone on on youtube on a deep and
           | esoteric subject
           | 
           | Angela Collier is the answer to your plea.
        
             | sterlind wrote:
             | I want to like Collier, but she has a patronizing,
             | gatekeeping edge to some of her videos that I don't like.
             | She also spends nearly as much time talking about science
             | communication as she does actually communicating science.
             | 
             | Like for example, her QCD video was about how explaining
             | QCD to laypersons is impossible. She dunked on Feynman
             | diagrams, first as not being real math, then because its
             | antimatter notation makes laypeople think antimatter is
             | time-reversed matter. ...which it is, iiuc, as far as the
             | calculations of quantum field theory are concerned. Also
             | that QCD is misleading because color charge isn't actual
             | colors, as if viewers are doomed to take the color-wheel
             | analogy literally.
             | 
             | But this is a cynically pessimistic view to have as a
             | science communicator. PBS Spacetime has covered QCD.
             | Feynman's QED book teaches the layperson how diffraction,
             | lensing, magnetic repulsion etc. work in terms of Feynman
             | diagrams he shows you how to work through!
             | 
             | Why not teach science, rather than spread snark? Why not
             | bring the audience up to you, rather than talking down to
             | them?
        
             | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
             | Thanks, I'll try here too.
        
       | throwaway14356 wrote:
       | long ago i coin: scientific physics
       | 
       | an analogy with astrology and astronomy fits perfectly.
       | 
       | Remember those great men who did groundbreaking work that
       | completely changed the fabric of society? Consensus my a, their
       | work is self evident. If you need someone to tell you something
       | is a great accomplishment it apparently isn't obvious.
       | 
       | If there is no revolution triggered by [say] relativity theory it
       | doesn't qualify for the list of great discoveries. You need
       | people to tell you how great it is.
       | 
       | funny as hell
        
       | sega_sai wrote:
       | Physicist here.. I will not give Sabine more YouTube views,
       | justifying clickbait titles. Below is just my opinion. There are
       | certainly issues in theoretical physics. I think particularly
       | string theory was a massive waste of effort in physics and to
       | some degree illustration of failure of the whole system. Despite
       | that most of other physics I would say in sensible shape, it is
       | just harder to make progress given that we have to push to higher
       | energies, more accurate measurements etc. The question whether
       | there will be major advance in fundamental physics to some degree
       | depends on new discoveries. Many people are pushing, but it is
       | not guaranteed.
        
       | elashri wrote:
       | I know that this will probably be down-voted to death but I don't
       | like these hyperbolic takes. I know that Sabine did use this
       | title for click-bate purposes that she is now mostly doing
       | YouTube videos (she had horrible experience that unfortunately
       | not rare in scientific community [1]). I understand that the
       | field of particle physics which is the corner stone in
       | fundamental physics is not showing the great advances that it
       | used to have a couple of decades ago. But I think people really
       | don't understand that the field is still advancing and although
       | these advances are less catchy to be reported in mainstream (and
       | don't get traction if posted on HN) it is not dead or dying.
       | 
       | There is a reason why we had a particle data group updating the
       | PDG [2] each two years (you can order physical copies for free
       | but please don't do if you don't need one). People were writing
       | about that since after the big discovery of Higgs boson (that was
       | 12 years ago). We still have a lot of measurement and puzzles
       | that is less about unification theory that people usually would
       | talk about. Theory people are coming up with all different ideas
       | even if some are not testable now but that job of theorist is
       | mainly come up with ideas and help bridge the gap later.
       | 
       | I would suggest everyone interested in this topic to read the
       | electroweak current chapter of the book called "How experiments
       | End" [3] to understand a historical example to how we approached
       | the standard model when it was first proposed. Most of the
       | particle physicists will not work on supersymmetry, string theory
       | and these catchy theories that people will hear about. Most of
       | the work is advancing and answering (and raise questions) piece
       | by piece. Here is an example of interesting results that help us
       | answer some questions [4]. Also I'm not saying that the field had
       | its own problems and can improve on many aspects. I'm just
       | against these extreme and hot takes that claims it is in a crisis
       | or dying.
       | 
       | for people who posted the comment from John Carlos, I like this
       | toot/tweet/comment by Sven Geier [5] which was what John replied.
       | 
       | Disclaimer: I'm a particle physicist and have a skin in the game.
       | 
       | [1]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKiBlGDfRU8
       | 
       | [2] https://pdg.lbl.gov/
       | 
       | [3]
       | https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/H/bo596942...
       | 
       | [4] https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/new-results-from-
       | th...
       | 
       | [5] https://mathstodon.xyz/@SvenGeier/113284011925646281
        
         | randomNumber7 wrote:
         | Seems like you are not downvoted on HN for rational
         | argumentation.
         | 
         | I still think sabine has a point. When we consider occam's
         | razor string theory is absurd. Just because einstein used math
         | to show our perception of the world is flawed, doesn't mean it
         | is likely repeatable with an overly complicated mathematical
         | model.
         | 
         | Yet we live in a world, where highly decorated physicists spin
         | a tale of consciousness beeing enabled by the collapse of the
         | wave function (and other absurd stuff like many world
         | interpretation). This wasted also my time, because it confused
         | me for a while.
         | 
         | Let religion for the religious, philosophy to the philosopher.
         | Physics should be a science based on observation.
        
           | elashri wrote:
           | My point was that sabine is claiming that the field is dying
           | (or in a crisis). You can argue against string theory and
           | quantum gravity research as much as you want. But this will
           | not warrant sabine's conclusions about particle physics and
           | why we should invest in other areas instead. She is doing
           | this for almost a decade now.
           | 
           | And I don't understand your point about statistical
           | interpretation and how it is related to being a religion.
           | Pick up any of the mainstream interpretation and start doing
           | calculations of lets say ground state energy of H atom and
           | you will get the same results.
           | 
           | All mainstream interpretations yields the same results if
           | calculations are done "correctly". The shut up and calculate
           | works pretty well across interpretation because of two things
           | you have to consider
           | 
           | The first thing is that all interpretations rely on four
           | things to be able to do the calculations. ( I simplified a
           | little bit)
           | 
           | 1- Hilbert spaces to represent quantum states
           | 
           | 2- Operators for observables (like momentum and energy)
           | 
           | 3- Unitary evolution of states through the Schrodinger
           | equation
           | 
           | 4- Born's rule for calculating probabilities of measurement
           | outcomes
           | 
           | Thus, the underlying equations are the same regardless of
           | interpretation.
           | 
           | The second thing you have to understand the role of
           | Interpretations. They aim to explain what the mathematical
           | structure of QM means. They differ on issues like: collapse,
           | Is it real (Copenhagen)? just an apparent phenomenon (Many-
           | Worlds)? or governed by additional variables (Bohmian
           | mechanics) or the question of Determinism. Is the universe
           | fundamentally deterministic (Bohmian mechanics)? or
           | indeterministic (Copenhagen)?
           | 
           | The last thing is a really philosophical question about what
           | exists physically--wavefunctions, particles, or multiple
           | worlds?
           | 
           | These philosophical questions don't affect the numerical
           | predictions of quantum theory and that's part of the reason
           | you shouldn't learn physics from science communication books.
        
             | randomNumber7 wrote:
             | Thank you for the reply. I absolutely agree, but it's not
             | only science communication and journalists that try to see
             | it in a philosophical way.
             | 
             | Roger Penrose for example (as far as i can tell a highly
             | respected physicist) is arguing that the collapse of the
             | wave function happens inside the brain and enables our
             | consiciousness.
             | 
             | Who am I to criticise that? I think we should be open to
             | anything in science. On the other hand when one tries to do
             | philosophy, one should also understand the field. For an
             | outsider it looks like people try to flatter themselves
             | with their superior mathematical skills.
        
       | hindsightbias wrote:
       | What if String Theory is a Sophon Virus?
        
         | js8 wrote:
         | Then it's not really all that well made, frankly, because one
         | of the most popular YT physicists is immune to said virus.
         | 
         | But - I have always dismissed cryptocurrencies thinking "people
         | can't be that stupid". If I had not, I could have made some
         | money. So maybe Sophons didn't expect Youtube to be a thing,
         | either.
        
       | herodotus wrote:
       | This might be too weird to be true, but when I heard that Geoff
       | Hinton got the Nobel prize for Physics, I wondered if the prize
       | committee was having trouble finding "real" physicists who had
       | made fundamental advances....
       | 
       | This is not meant to knock Prof Hinton. These are his own words:
       | 
       | "I'm not a physicist, I have very high respect for physics,"
       | Hinton said. "I dropped out of physics after my first year at
       | university because I couldn't do the complicated math. So,
       | getting an award in physics was very surprising to me. I'm very
       | pleased that the Nobel committee recognised that there's been
       | huge progress in the area of artificial neural networks."
        
         | atmosx wrote:
         | It is evident that they need more than five categories.
         | Awarding Nobels to individuals who are not particularly (if at
         | all) well-versed in the subject at hand, even if they
         | contributed to a breakthrough in the field, directly or
         | indirectly discredits the prize.
         | 
         | Indeed, the online memes about Hinton and Hassabis being "a bit
         | of a <physicist|chemist> myself!" are justified, in my opinion.
        
         | empiko wrote:
         | I agree with you. What is also telling is that there is no
         | particularly strong reaction from the physics community that
         | someone obvious was wrongfully omitted.
        
           | aleph_minus_one wrote:
           | > What is also telling is that there is no particularly
           | strong reaction from the physics community that someone
           | obvious was wrongfully omitted.
           | 
           | A few days before the announcement of the Physics Nobel Prize
           | Sabine Hossenfelder created a video about her predictions for
           | the Physics Nobel Prize. Likely all mentioned researchers in
           | this video did more for the advancement of physics research
           | than John Hopfield and Geoffrey Hinton:
           | 
           | > Who Will Win This Year's Nobel Prize in Physics? My
           | Speculations
           | 
           | > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMTNHqEpTnw
        
       | randomNumber7 wrote:
       | I think the problem is more fundamental. Newtonian mechanics is a
       | science based on observation. Mathematics is just used to build a
       | model that describes _how_ the reality behaves, not why.
       | 
       | Now Einstein is very special, because he proved that our human
       | perception of space and time is wrong. When we think about the
       | allegory of the cave, we got a glimpse of the reality we couldnt
       | see before.
       | 
       | Nowadays every phyiscist wants to be the next einstein that uses
       | mathematics to show us something about reality. The problem is
       | that einstein had good reasons for his ideas. The constant speed
       | of light didn't really work with maxwells equations. The model at
       | that time didn't correctly describe the observations and the
       | maths he used to solve that is rather elegant and simple.
        
       | mnky9800n wrote:
       | This seems like a narrow view given that there are plenty of
       | unanswered questions in chaos theory, etc. but physicists who
       | think about quantum stuff typically don't like to consider the
       | other physics Revolution of the 20th century as equivalent to
       | theirs.
        
       | meindnoch wrote:
       | I knew from the title it's gonna be Sabine Hossenfelder. Her
       | videos are just clickbait at this point.
        
       | davidgerard wrote:
       | Is this Dang turning titles into Betteridge questions again? The
       | original does not have a question mark.
        
       | teekert wrote:
       | You know how some people seem knowledgeable until they talk about
       | your field? Well for me (molecular biology and genomics) this
       | never happens with Sabine.
       | 
       | So, even though much of this is over my head, I grant her much
       | credence.
       | 
       | FWIW.
        
       | Ono-Sendai wrote:
       | Sabine is often right, but I think she's wrong here about Lorentz
       | invariance being a problem, or at least a problem in the way
       | she's saying.
       | 
       | Lorentz transformations are never going to length-contract the
       | underlying fabric of space/spacetime. Relativistic length
       | contractions contract moving objects, not the underlying
       | spacetime.
       | 
       | In fact it's a strange and basic misunderstanding to have.
        
         | auggierose wrote:
         | Depending on your reference coordinate system, space is
         | transformed. That is the entire point of relativity theory. You
         | might be misunderstanding things here.
        
           | Ono-Sendai wrote:
           | Coordinates are transformed, not the actual space. Objects
           | are length-contracted due to the electric field being length
           | contracted.
        
         | naasking wrote:
         | Sabine is correct. All objects in a spacetime are anchored to
         | that spacetime, so if spacetime has a minimum length, then
         | length contraction of moving objects has a detectable lower
         | limit, thus violating Lorentz invariance.
        
           | Ono-Sendai wrote:
           | She seems to be talking about spacetime itself being Lorentz
           | contracted though.
           | 
           | it's true that a sufficiently fast moving object would be
           | length contracted so much that it started interacting with
           | the minimal LQG length, which would violate Lorentz
           | invariance. Depending on how big the LQG loops are, that
           | could be a fanstastically high speed that isn't achievable in
           | the universe though.
        
             | naasking wrote:
             | Continuously saying "minimum length could just be smaller"
             | is a god of the gaps argument. Technically correct but
             | wildly suspicious, particularly if your theory doesn't
             | actually say what the minimum length ought to be, eg. it's
             | borderline not falsifiable if you can keep moving the
             | goalposts.
             | 
             | I assume the paper she and Brian Keating are talking about
             | were very explicit in how they tested this property and how
             | Lorentz invariance was expected to be violated, so you
             | could check the paper for specifics.
        
       | openrisk wrote:
       | Her choice of background for this video and the matching imprint
       | on her blouse gives us maybe a hint that "fundamental" physics is
       | too broad a field to actually die :-) I.e., there are ongoing and
       | deep puzzles e.g., in dark matter / dark energy where
       | observational data keep accumulating and at some point a critical
       | mass (pun) of evidence _may_ reshape our ideas about how the
       | universe fundamentally works. The new ideas need have nothing in
       | common with pre-existing mind sets of how things work.
       | 
       | Now about the string theory / quantum gravity furore, after
       | decades of work by arguably extremely bright people its pretty
       | clear that Nature in the current juncture is not giving us enough
       | clues to proceed. This should not be stressful - Nature is not a
       | Hollywood production studio that needs to churn gee-wow
       | "experiences" every season. But Sayre's law applies rather well
       | [1] "In any dispute the intensity of feeling is inversely
       | proportional to the value of the issues at stake.". What is at
       | stake here is the ego of a few individuals that assumed otherwise
       | (i.e., that a post-Einstein revolution is imminent) and the
       | (relatively minor in the scheme of things) research funding of
       | this particular niche of physics.
       | 
       | Theoretical physics is not the only domain bouncing regularly
       | between "hypes" and "winters", as the recent Nobel prize for
       | Physics clearly demonstrates.
       | 
       | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sayre's_law
        
       | drpossum wrote:
       | I'm not hot on what fundamental physics looks like now or in the
       | future, but there's an attitude that Sabine promotes that I see
       | echoed in a lot of comments here which feeds into problems with
       | research.
       | 
       | I _don 't_ think the work put into studying fundamentals was "a
       | waste of time" thus far. It's dangerous to label experiments and
       | ideas that were acted on in good faith as the best options at the
       | time but didn't yield positive results as missteps.
       | 
       | Scientists need to be allowed to do work like this without fear
       | because to do so otherwise leads to perverse incentives and you
       | end up with things like lots of studies that can't be reproduced
       | because of p-hacking or worse.
       | 
       | Arguing bad faith after the fact is awfully hard without real
       | evidence and if you're going to discount anyone with enthusiasm
       | for their research proposal based on enthusiasm alone you're not
       | going to be left with a healthy program. I don't blame anyone who
       | supported things like supersymmetry as an example for something
       | which hasn't panned out. we're still left with a major mystery
       | and big questions and it says we need to rethink things in more
       | difficult directions.
        
         | Log_out_ wrote:
         | The whole of human society is a combustion engine for life,
         | barely held from going full self destruction by a science
         | driven economy consuming resources in a unsustainable way.
         | Science is what kept us peaceful and nice since WW2. And the
         | breakthroughs are needed not some time far far away ,they are
         | needed now. This is not about the purity of approach or some
         | hypocritical game. This is a dependancy of life and death on
         | the results ..
        
         | BoiledCabbage wrote:
         | I'm not in any way an expert in this area, but here is what I
         | see. I don't think the argument is that it's being said as "bad
         | faith after the fact". I think the argument is that the
         | approach was told it had fundamental flaws. Those were ignored
         | / denied. People continued to invest in it and suck up all of
         | the research and bright minds in the field. Decades later it
         | still has those fundamental flaws and has taken over all other
         | possible avenues of progress as it has all grant money and and
         | the majority of all departments working on it.
         | 
         | It's more "you were told this is broken before. It's decades
         | later and it's broken in the same way. At what point to you
         | admit that this approach isn't working so try something else?"
         | And the answer is "No, we're going to keep digging deeper".
         | 
         | Fundamentally, approaches need to be falsifiable. If your
         | theory is "falsifiable" in the small scale but ultimately
         | unfalsifiable in the large scale then it's is fundamentally
         | unfalsifiable and we can't use it to lead experimentation.
         | 
         | It's a breadth vs depth search question. We've lost all breadth
         | of search in physics, because a little ways back we stumbled
         | upon a branch that happened to have a (for practical purposes)
         | infinite number of subbranches relating to ways to roll up
         | string dimensions. So physics is stuck exploring all of those
         | sub-branches instead of backtracking one level and exploring
         | any other parts of the tree.
         | 
         | The argument is that everyone is looking under the lamppost for
         | the keys. After 4 decades of searching there, maybe it's time
         | to search somewhere else. And the argument is made even strong
         | when decades back they were told, "Hey, I didn't drop by keys
         | by the lamppost. I dropped them somewhere else". And yet most
         | people keep looking there.
        
           | drpossum wrote:
           | Sabine's argument has been frequently bad faith after the
           | fact and currently. Just skimming some of her written work:
           | 
           | "Before the Large Hadron Collider turned on, particle
           | physicists claimed that it would either confirm or rule out
           | supersymmetry. ... The answer is that the LHC indeed did not
           | rule out supersymmetry, it never could."
           | 
           | https://backreaction.blogspot.com/2022/04/did-w-boson-
           | just-b...
           | 
           | "I hope they'll finally come around and see that they have
           | tried for several decades to solve a problem that doesn't
           | exist"
           | 
           | https://backreaction.blogspot.com/2018/02/what-does-it-
           | mean-...
           | 
           | Here she says physicists will just keep building bigger
           | colliders because they can and not on merit
           | 
           | https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-world-
           | doesnt-...
           | 
           | Here she said CERN's push for an FCC is "full of lies"
           | 
           | http://backreaction.blogspot.com/2018/12/cern-produces-
           | marke...
           | 
           | When people are accused of ignoring or dismissing credible
           | points where a program is legitimately problematic is exactly
           | an accusation of operating "bad faith". "Good faith" means
           | doing legitimate and believable science with the best
           | information. These are claims it was done to the contrary.
        
             | BoiledCabbage wrote:
             | > Sabine's argument has been frequently bad faith after the
             | fact and currently. Just skimming some of her written work:
             | 
             | I want to make sure to clarify your point before
             | continuing. Are you saying that Sabine makes arguments in
             | bad faith? Or are you saying that Sabine is saying that
             | many physicists are making arguments in bad faith? I
             | believe that you are stating the former - but I want to
             | make sure of that before continuing - if not, then
             | apologies as I misunderstood you. I believe that she is
             | stating the latter (stating that physicists are making bad
             | faith claims), and that is the central point of her
             | concern.
             | 
             | So again, I'll preface this with saying I'm a layman here
             | and don't have the expertise to speak with depth of
             | knowledge.
             | 
             | Let's take the first link you provided (simply because it's
             | first and the only one I dug into). Her claim is that
             | physicists are making bad faith claims.
             | 
             | She said that prior to building the previous version of the
             | LHC, physicists were pushing for it to be built in part
             | because it could either confirm or disprove supersymmetry.
             | More specifically that Supersymmetry was "falsifiable" and
             | that building the LHC would allow the physics community to
             | either confirm or dismiss it as a theory. She (in the
             | video) gave references to multiple papers that made that
             | claim. I didn't go read the specific papers, but I give her
             | the benefit of the doubt that the papers make those claims.
             | Specifically the implicit/explicit claims were that the LHC
             | is needed/justified because afterwards we would be able to
             | confirm or refute supersymetry.
             | 
             | The LHC is built, none of the expected evidence shows up.
             | So as a result is Supersymetry now refuted? No, now the
             | same supporters say "well that just eliminates one part of
             | it, there are still all of these other ways it could show
             | up".
             | 
             | If that's the case, then building the LHC could _never_
             | have refuted supersymetry. And if that is true, then it was
             | a false claim and a false justification for building the
             | LHC. And from my reading of it she seems to be correct.
             | 
             | Again it is her side of the story but: if someone says
             | doing X will mean that our theory is shown to either be
             | true or false, we do X and they then state "we still don't
             | know if our theory is true or false", then it seems like
             | that claim was wrong. And her point is, people in the
             | community need to step up and say yes the claim was wrong
             | when we made it. Particularly so, because they are using
             | the same exact justification for building an even larger
             | LHC. If your reasoning was wrong before, how can you use
             | the same reasoning now to justify it.
             | 
             |  _(Side point I 'm not saying whether the LHC should have
             | been built or not, or about any of the other physics
             | theories related to the LHC that could be
             | supported/refuted, I'm specifically just talking about
             | those supersymetry claims confirm/falsify claims)._
             | 
             | So that all is my read of half of her argument, and it
             | seems pretty strong. But her general complaints about the
             | current state of particle physics seem to go further. It's
             | not just that scientists made a faulty claim and made a
             | mistake, it's that they knew it at the time and still made
             | the claim anyway. And that others in the know didn't speak
             | up because it was to their benefit.
             | 
             | And that's I think the core of the second half of her
             | general point. There are now a number of areas of particle
             | physics where the area (string theory, supersymetry, ...)
             | have an enormously broad label that can be applied to
             | anything and no way to refute them. Every time one of them
             | is "refuted" they then grow a new head and say "but aha you
             | haven't refuted this part". In addition an anomalous
             | behavior is seen in physics they after the fact find a way
             | to tweak parameters to make their theory "explain" what was
             | seen. They are theories without constraints - they can be
             | used to explain anything. And each time it's wrong a new
             | flavor can be created to give a new avenue.
             | 
             | And somehow there is no reconciliation for this. Either put
             | forward something that shows your theory is falsifiable
             | once and for all. Or clearly and upfront state that your
             | theory can never be falsified (or can't be falsified for
             | 1000 years). And if that's the case be honest about it.
             | 
             | The problem is if it really is that the theory can't be
             | falsified for 1000 years or can't be falsified at all, then
             | in the end it's just philosophy and has no reason to be
             | funded the way that it is and to take up all of the
             | resources (monetary and cognitive) that it's consuming,
             | instead of those resources being used on things that might
             | actually give us results in the next 10-100 years.
             | 
             | To me it's a very strong argument.
             | 
             | So why do people keep making these claims? Because it's
             | what gets them funding. As long as you say you're doing
             | string theory you can get funding. And if string theory has
             | an infinite number of possibilities you can get infinite
             | funding. And if string theory can never be falsified then
             | it can provide funding forever. But if you admit it can
             | never be falsified and can never be truly predictive, the
             | funding dries up. The only thing that can be falsified is
             | one of the 10^10^40th variants of string theory and as soon
             | as it is, you just move on to a new variant. That's not
             | science.
             | 
             | And a similar argument holds on a smaller scale for
             | supersymetry: "You keep asking for money for the LHC to
             | once-and-for-all confirm or refute supersymetry, but
             | somehow no test in the near future will really ever refute
             | it."
             | 
             | Belaboring the point. It's like saying the Flying Spaghetti
             | Monster is what makes plants grow. He's omnipotent. When
             | nobody is looking he rubs the plant with his appendages and
             | they grow. So a physicist says "I need x amount of money to
             | pay people to watch a plant 24/7 to show that's what
             | happens." If he shows up he's real, if the plant dies it's
             | proof he's real. They get the funds, he never shows up and
             | the plant still grows. So now they say "oh it's because
             | he's omnipotent, so he can turn invisible. I need funds to
             | do a similar experiment but enclose the plant in a glass
             | box so he can't get in". They do it, and the plant still
             | grows, so next time it's "ah yes he can walk through walls
             | so instead I now need to do Y experiment...".
             | 
             | Sabine is stating: "In the very beginning you said he's
             | omnipotent. There is no test we can do that can falsify
             | your theory of him being why plants grow. Every test you
             | say could show proof of him, but when it doesn't there is
             | always some new power he could have to explain the behavior
             | and reason for a new test." Either admit that due to his
             | omnipotence there is no test possible to refute the FSM
             | existence, or give a test that once and for all will show
             | it's not possible. Otherwise the default assumption should
             | be your FSM theory is flat our wrong and we're chasing it
             | down a forever path.
             | 
             | So I realize this was extremely long, and way more than I
             | intended to write, but I think it's a really interesting
             | topic on the philosophy of science and how it relates to
             | what's going on in the field.
             | 
             | All that said, it's very possible I'm missing your point
             | above, and would love to hear the other side of the
             | argument if you disagree.
        
               | drpossum wrote:
               | I am saying that Sabine is saying that many physicists
               | are making arguments in bad faith. Those are what my
               | examples intended to show.
        
               | elashri wrote:
               | I don't want to discuss whether sabine is making argument
               | in bad faith or not. Or if she us just cherry picking
               | claims from couple of researchers among thousands
               | working/ed on LHC. But it is inaccurate to say the LHC is
               | built to search for supersymmetry. The original
               | motivation for LHC was Higgs search, we didn't have
               | enough energy in Tevatron so people proposed LHC. There
               | are other motivations like studying dark matter,
               | interactions of quarks and glouns at high energies, b
               | physics and matter- anti matter asymmetry, and Beyond
               | standard models searches where many of the proposed
               | models where SUSY (but not limited to).
               | 
               | I will leave it as an exercise to the reader to judge if
               | ignoring all these and focus on SUSY ia bad faith
               | argument or not. But one of my problems with sabine is
               | that how usually she goes from premises to conclusions
               | which in many cases does not work out well.
        
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