[HN Gopher] AI Winter Is Coming
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AI Winter Is Coming
Author : fzliu
Score : 35 points
Date : 2024-10-11 17:45 UTC (5 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (leehanchung.github.io)
(TXT) w3m dump (leehanchung.github.io)
| bluesounddirect wrote:
| Awesome.
| hu3 wrote:
| Similar phenomenon, on a smaller scale, is happening with what I
| call meta-cloud PaaS, which facilitates web app
| deployments/provisioning. They usually run on top of AWS or other
| large clouds, hence meta-cloud.
|
| It started with Heroku but now it has gained VC attention in the
| form of Next/Vercel, Laravel Cloud, Void(0), Deno Deploy and Bun-
| yet-to-be-announced solution. I'm probably forgetting one or two.
|
| Don't get me wrong, they are legit solutions. But the VC money
| currently being poured in on influencers to push these solutions
| make them seem much more appealing than they would be otherwise.
| grokkedit wrote:
| Heroku has been around for almost 20 years, Vercel was Zeit ~10
| years ago, and they both have always been widespread solutions,
| I wouldn't say that that there is hype only now
|
| I cannot vouch for laravel cloud or void, since I've never used
| them, nor I will comment on Deno/Bun since they are far more
| recent
| hackable_sand wrote:
| Here is the thesis at the end
|
| > the real producers will keep moving forward, building a more
| capable future for AI.
|
| This is one of many signal flares going up.
|
| Do something or cash out of the AI space. Engineers are tired.
| incognito124 wrote:
| > That leading edge research paper is most probably someone's
| production code.
|
| Very powerful, albeit sad, statement.
| jerf wrote:
| I don't know about "Winter". The original "AI Winter" was near-
| total devastation. But it's probably reasonable to think that
| after the hype train of the last year or two we're due to be
| headed into the Trough of Disillusionment for LLM-based AI
| technologies on the standard Gartner hype cycle:
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle
| pajeets wrote:
| chatgpt wrapper startups are ngmi
| zcw100 wrote:
| People warning about a coming AI winter are almost as annoying as
| people doomsaying about AGI. It's going to be somewhere in
| between. It can be disappointing and revolutionary at the same
| time. We had the dot-com crash and yet out of that grew some of
| the largest corporations the world. Microsoft, Facebook, Apple,
| Amazon, etc
| threeseed wrote:
| Every one of those companies predates the dot com bomb by quite
| some time.
|
| And AGI is science fiction with no credible plan of how to get
| there. If you can even get everyone to agree on the same
| definition.
|
| An AI winter is something that can be measured and is factual
| eg. the lacklustre spending on AI products and the dry up in VC
| funding.
| archgoon wrote:
| Microsoft and Apple preceded the dot com bomb by several
| decades. (Microsoft 1975, Apple 1976)
|
| Amazon was a company that was around and survived the dot com
| bomb (founded in 1994, roughly around the time of the
| beginning of the bubble) [though its stock took about 7 years
| to recover]
|
| Facebook was post dot com bomb. (founded 2004)
| janalsncm wrote:
| The article is less about a winter for the field than a winter
| for AI boosters, who will soon move on to become "experts" in
| The Next Big Thing.
|
| For people working in the field, deep learning has already
| proven itself to be self-funding. It's the main source of
| Google's profits. It's TikTok's algorithm. Et cetera.
| i-cjw wrote:
| > Or take Ed Thorp, who invented the option pricing model and
| quietly traded on it for years until Black-Scholes published a
| similar formula and won a Nobel Prize
|
| Hardly quietly. Thorpe published "Beat the Market" in 1967
| detailing his formulae, six years before Black Scholes won the
| Nobel.
| janalsncm wrote:
| I like the distinction between producers and promoters. This is
| why I am naturally skeptical of polished demos and people posting
| in their real name. If you post in your real name, you are at a
| minimum promoting yourself (generally boils down to "I am a
| smart, employable person").
|
| I wish I had a better heuristic, but the best I've found on
| Twitter is pseudonymous users with anime profile pics. These are
| people who don't care about boosting a product. They're possibly
| core contributors to a lesser-known but essential python library.
| They deeply understand a single thing very well. They don't post
| all day _because they are busy producing_.
| swyx wrote:
| our take on this from the industry pov:
| https://www.latent.space/p/mar-jun-2024 (there is a podcast
| version too if u click thru)
|
| broadly agree but i think predicting ai winter isnt as useful as
| handicapping how deep and still building useful things
| regardless.
| pinkmuffinere wrote:
| > This is how we're headed for another AI winter, just as we saw
| with the fall of data science, crypto, and the modern data stack.
|
| The fall of data science??? When did that happen? I'm not
| squarely in the field, but I thought I would have heard about it
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