[HN Gopher] Nobel Peace Prize for 2024 awarded to Nihon Hidankyo
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Nobel Peace Prize for 2024 awarded to Nihon Hidankyo
        
       Author : danielskogly
       Score  : 220 points
       Date   : 2024-10-11 09:01 UTC (13 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nobelprize.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nobelprize.org)
        
       | lode wrote:
       | This is the organisation that has won the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize:
       | 
       | https://www.ne.jp/asahi/hidankyo/nihon/english/
        
       | matt123456789 wrote:
       | An excellent choice.
        
       | abe94 wrote:
       | One of my friends grandmothers was an atomic bomb survivor - she
       | was just a baby when the bomb hit and was blind the rest of her
       | life.
       | 
       | One thing I was surprised by was the number of survivors and also
       | that there was at least one person who survived both bombs [1]
       | 
       | [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsutomu_Yamaguchi
        
         | lqet wrote:
         | > A resident of Nagasaki, Yamaguchi was in Hiroshima on
         | business for his employer Mitsubishi Heavy Industries when the
         | city was bombed at 8:15 AM, on 6 August 1945. He returned to
         | Nagasaki the following day and, despite his wounds, returned to
         | work on 9 August, the day of the second atomic bombing. That
         | morning, while he was being told by his supervisor that he was
         | "crazy" after describing how one bomb had destroyed the city,
         | the Nagasaki bomb detonated.
        
           | krisoft wrote:
           | > That morning, while he was being told by his supervisor
           | that he was "crazy" after describing how one bomb had
           | destroyed the city, the Nagasaki bomb detonated.
           | 
           | That is one way to win an argument. Not that anyone would
           | prefer that "win".
        
         | zczc wrote:
         | The Wikipedia article says there were at least 165 survivors of
         | both bombings: "[Yamaguchi] was invited to take part in a 2006
         | documentary about 165 double A-bomb survivors".
        
         | jsrcout wrote:
         | I, too, was shocked to learn this. I only learned about it
         | fairly recently, from my older brother who read a book from the
         | school library on it as a child:
         | 
         | Nine Who Survived Hiroshima & Nagasaki Hardcover - January 1,
         | 1957
         | 
         | https://www.amazon.com/Nine-Who-Survived-Hiroshima-Nagasaki/...
        
       | walthamstow wrote:
       | I visited the Hiroshima museum last year. They've got a set of
       | stone steps, a person was sat there when the bomb went off and
       | they were simply vaporised. The stone steps bear the residue of
       | the person, almost like a shadow.
        
         | kachapopopow wrote:
         | The atomic bombs weren't close enough to vaporize anyone since
         | they were detonated in the air, what you see is disintegration
         | which is a little bit different and instead of turning the
         | human body into what could be considered "nothing" the
         | materials are torn apart and get embedded into the surrounding
         | environment. Some vaporization did occur, but only on plants
         | and the skin tissue of humans.
        
           | krisoft wrote:
           | > instead of turning the human body into what could be
           | considered "nothing"
           | 
           | You can't turn material into "nothing". At best you can turn
           | it into equivalent amount of energy if you collide it with
           | antimatter.
           | 
           | That being said I don't really feel the difference between
           | "vaporisation" and "disintegration". In both cases you stop
           | being biology and start being physics in a subjective
           | instant. (at least from the perspective of your own central
           | nervous system, which has not enough time to even detect that
           | something has happened)
           | 
           | In both cases you go from a living, breathing, laughing,
           | thinking human being into contaminants in the air or surfaces
           | around you.
           | 
           | What do you feel is the difference between "vaporisation" and
           | "disintegration"? Is it about how big your largest continuous
           | chunk is? Where do you draw the line?
        
             | fragmede wrote:
             | the specific definition is that vaporization turns solids
             | and liquids into gas or plasma, while disintegration means
             | being broken into pieces. the difference between a gas and
             | a solid, and also fine solids suspended in a gas, is fairly
             | well defined.
        
               | krisoft wrote:
               | That makes sense! Thank you. Gas or plasma vs solids is
               | indeed a well defined difference.
        
             | kachapopopow wrote:
             | By "nothing" is that there isn't a piece of you that is
             | still you. Disintegration means that we can still find
             | pieces of "you" in the environment. Not sure if there's any
             | recoverable DNA left thought, that was most likely
             | destroyed by the other waves of the atomic bomb.
        
         | matsemann wrote:
         | Visited Hiroshima over a decade ago during a school trip, and
         | had a local guide that was a survivor. Very powerful.
         | 
         | As a teenager we also visited concentration camps on a school
         | trip, and a survivor joined the trip from Norway to Germany. We
         | got to know him a bit during the week long trip, and there was
         | a session where he told his story. I'll never forget this, and
         | I think it affects me to this day.
         | 
         | Soon we will have no Time Witnesses left.
         | 
         | Edit: I remembered a very specific anecdote he told, about how
         | him randomly having learned to knit helped when in a
         | concentration camp, as some officer wanted something to be
         | made, and he then could sit inside and do that instead of
         | working himself to death in the quarry. Based on this I managed
         | to find his name again now.
         | 
         | Haakon Sorbye, thanks for telling us your story.
        
         | LeonM wrote:
         | At that distance you wouldn't be vaporized, but burned. What
         | you see on the steps is not vapor deposits, but rather they are
         | shadows.
         | 
         | The immense heat and light from the detonation
         | burned/discolored the stones, but not in the shadow of the
         | person sitting on the steps. Hence why you can see these
         | 'permanent shadows' in various places in the city. Some caused
         | by humans, but most are just shadows of structures. For example
         | bridge railings:
         | https://www.atomicarchive.com/media/photographs/hiroshima/im...
        
         | belter wrote:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Shadow_Etched_in_Stone
        
         | tomp wrote:
         | Are you sure that's the explanation?
         | 
         | It could be (and I think it's more likely) that the rest of the
         | stone was lightened, and the part in the shadow, wasn't.
         | 
         | No "residue of a person", just literally "shadow".
         | 
         | See also:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Shadow_Etched_in_Stone
        
       | pyrale wrote:
       | I have no issue with this laureate, but it is sad that the
       | comittee could not find someone deserving that is working on a
       | more current conflict. I guess this is not a positive outlook for
       | the current state international conflicts.
        
         | thimabi wrote:
         | At a time when Russia threatens the use of nuclear weapons in
         | Ukraine, Israel and Iran escalate tensions, North Korea tests
         | missiles and warheads... it is hard not to relate the award to
         | these circumstances.
         | 
         | Perhaps the committee thought it was best to express its
         | opinion on current conflicts indirectly, as it has done so in
         | the past.
        
           | pyrale wrote:
           | > Perhaps the committee thought it was best to express its
           | opinion on current conflicts indirectly, as it has done so in
           | the past.
           | 
           | I do agree, and this is my point: this particular committee
           | expressing concern rather than celebrating success is a
           | source of lament to me.
        
         | Cthulhu_ wrote:
         | I'm just glad it looks like a legitimately given out award this
         | time, instead of giving it to e.g. Peres, Arafat, Obama, Aung
         | San Suu Kyi, etc.
        
           | Dalewyn wrote:
           | Obama is by far the most vapid recipient of the award, but I
           | wonder if he is also the best representative for the lack of
           | peace given his legacy of "Yes we can, (but we don't)."
           | 
           | The reason we seemingly can't have peace is because we
           | deliberately refuse it.
        
         | slightwinder wrote:
         | Since over 2 years, we again live now under the constant real
         | threat of a nuclear war. Or this is at least what Russia is
         | regularly claiming. This is very current as long as Putin
         | doesn't get his s** together.
         | 
         | Of course there are other current candidates who would also
         | deserve it, but I think it might be also a matter of how hot
         | and current the problem is, and how much political impact this
         | message would have. Russia and their threats are cooling down
         | for the moment, so it's "safer" to send this message, instead
         | of anything related to the Middle East, for example.
        
         | keybored wrote:
         | > I have no issue with this laureate, but it is sad that the
         | comittee
         | 
         | You have no issue but it is sad?
         | 
         | > could not find someone deserving that is working on a more
         | current conflict. I guess this is not a positive outlook for
         | the current state international conflicts.
         | 
         | Just any issue would be fine for you? Or could it be some
         | specific issue that you care abuot.
        
       | thimabi wrote:
       | Congratulations to Nihon Hidankyo!
       | 
       | As said in the announcement, even 80 years after those bombs were
       | dropped in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, we still need to highlight the
       | dangers of nuclear weapons.
       | 
       | The threat and use of such weapons is still allowed by customary
       | international law. Maybe movements like this will help change
       | this sad fact. There has been progress in this direction.
       | However, of course, nuclear-weapon states have been vehemently
       | opposed to that, although they are obliged to negotiate a general
       | and complete nuclear disarmament.
        
         | gus_massa wrote:
         | "Customary international law" is written by countries that can
         | win a huge wae that are countries that have nuclear weapons, so
         | they will not forbid themself the use of nuclear weapons.
        
           | thimabi wrote:
           | As the name says, customary international law is not written.
           | It arises from international practices that have become so
           | widespread that states begin to recognize they have a legal
           | obligation to continue them (opinio juris).
           | 
           | Current literature says that the non-usage of nuclear weapons
           | has become a widespread international practice, but that the
           | resistance of nuclear powers has prevented the formation of
           | an "opinio juris" thus far. What is at stake is whether an
           | international custom can be formed despite the opposition of
           | certain states -- as long as several other states acknowledge
           | the custom.
        
             | exmadscientist wrote:
             | Doesn't the history of war in the twentieth century
             | (because we've got to start somewhere) suggest that
             | "international law" means _absolutely fucking nothing at
             | fucking all_ when it comes to major wars?
             | 
             | Why bother?
             | 
             | What are you going to do to enforce it, invade the guy who
             | just nuked/invaded you/your friends?
        
             | gus_massa wrote:
             | But the several other states must have nuclear weapons to
             | enforce the custom on a rogue country with nuclear weapons.
        
       | thrownawaysz wrote:
       | If I were a gambling man I'd put some money on a chinese
       | professor getting the economics Nobel Prize
        
         | thaumasiotes wrote:
         | You might want to consider a little more carefully before
         | putting money down. There is no economics Nobel Prize.
        
           | thrownawaysz wrote:
           | "Although not one of the five Nobel Prizes established by
           | Alfred Nobel's will in 1895, it is commonly referred to as
           | the Nobel Prize in Economics, and is administered and
           | referred to along with the Nobel Prizes by the Nobel
           | Foundation. Winners of the Prize in Economic Sciences are
           | chosen in a similar manner as and announced alongside the
           | Nobel Prize recipients, and receive the Prize in Economic
           | Sciences at the Nobel Prize Award Ceremony"
        
       | mppm wrote:
       | This is indeed a very timely award. I sometimes feel like the
       | world has forgotten that nuclear weapons still exist and are
       | still on hair-trigger alert to obliterate major cities. Maybe the
       | end of atmospheric testing and the success of (now defunct)
       | weapons reduction treaties has blunted public perception to the
       | ongoing threat that they represent, and to the need to tread
       | carefully where nuclear powers are involved.
        
         | vasco wrote:
         | If I put a hammer over your head that can fall any minute
         | you'll be worrying, but if you're born with the hammer over
         | your head and your parents before you as well, it becomes less
         | of a thing.
        
           | sandworm101 wrote:
           | On an individual level, we all have a variety of hammers over
           | our heads. Cancer has killed far more people prematurely than
           | nuclear weapons. Something like 500,000 people a year are
           | murdered. Traffic/bicycle/pedestrian accidents also kill more
           | than nuclear weapons. Even compared to a once-in-a-century
           | nuclear war that perhaps kills a billion people, cancer will
           | kill roughly a billion in the next century anyway. So, for
           | the rational/selfish person, the nuclear threat isn't worth
           | worrying about.
        
             | thimabi wrote:
             | That depends on where you live. There are people right now
             | in certain places who are terrified of the nuclear threat.
        
             | smokel wrote:
             | Extrapolating from two samples to "once-in-a-century" does
             | not strike me as rational.
        
             | faggotbreath wrote:
             | You have no idea what you're talking about. 2 billion
             | people will die in the first 70 minutes of a peer nuclear
             | exchange.
        
               | Ekaros wrote:
               | Why does that figure looks really suspicious to me. So in
               | nuclear exchange there is either already fully setup
               | blocks or the responding party will pull in others in?
        
             | squigz wrote:
             | I'd like to think of myself as a rational person, yet I
             | worry about it. Because it's not just a matter of math; the
             | effects of a billion people dying at once would be far more
             | detrimental than the deaths from cancer over a century.
             | 
             | (One might think this line of reasoning that some people
             | apply is a coping mechanism to ignore the reality, but that
             | might be a different conversation)
        
               | timeon wrote:
               | But it is not just about coping. We as society, can make
               | policies to decrease chance of getting a cancer and
               | decrease traffic deaths. We just chose not to out of
               | convenience and profit.
        
               | w0m wrote:
               | it's easier to ignore 100 papercuts than it is to ignore
               | missing a hand.
        
               | valval wrote:
               | Your analogy makes no sense whatsoever. More mundane
               | causes of death aren't paper cuts, and nuclear war isn't
               | losing a hand.
        
               | squigz wrote:
               | It makes sense to me. You understand it's not meant to be
               | taken literally, right?
        
             | petra wrote:
             | Everybody dies so there's nothing to fear from war?
        
               | IG_Semmelweiss wrote:
               | Chaos , without death.
        
             | cynicalpeace wrote:
             | Those other things are also worth worrying about too.
             | 
             | Gee, I hope the people in charge don't think "the nuclear
             | threat isn't worth worrying about"
        
             | IG_Semmelweiss wrote:
             | If I fall 1 feet one hundred times, I'll probably be Ok
             | 
             | If I fall 100 feet once, I won't.
             | 
             | 1m people dying in 1 day is not the same as 1M people dying
             | over a decade.
             | 
             | Also. People generally dont fear death itself. This is
             | expressed by people in pallitative care. Its the chaos and
             | uncertainty preceding death that is really feared
        
               | wang_li wrote:
               | If that one million people dying is followed by 3649 days
               | of no one dying from that cause, yes it is.
        
               | kortilla wrote:
               | No, abrupt deaths are much more disruptive to society
        
             | specialist wrote:
             | Does your risk assessment methodology also account for near
             | misses? Agency? Morality? Source of risk? Costs of
             | mitigation? Benefits? Something like actuary tables?
             | 
             | Mitigation of bike and pedestrian deaths is cheap. Just
             | reform land use, advantage people over vehicles. Oops, now
             | you're into culture and values.
             | 
             | Mitigation of cancer deaths is very expensive. Though we
             | didn't invent cancer, we feel the moral imperative to
             | "cure" it. And yet, while we're mitigating it, we're also
             | making it worse. Cross purposes. What's your balance sheet
             | for this conundrum?
             | 
             | Drugs kill lots of people. We own that one, right? How's
             | the War on Drugs working out?
             | 
             | In conclusion, I wish I could wave away these dilemmas with
             | a cute nominator and denominator. But I can barely reason
             | about them before my head explodes. So I'm not buying what
             | you're selling. Life's a bit more complicated, a bit more
             | _empirical_ , a bit less _rational_ , than your tidy
             | equations.
        
             | w4 wrote:
             | > _So, for the rational /selfish person, the nuclear threat
             | isn't worth worrying about._
             | 
             | Until you have children and future generations to worry
             | about. Then it suddenly seems quite a bit more pressing
             | that their world could be obliterated at a moment's notice
             | by a small handful of decision makers.
        
               | BurningFrog wrote:
               | So what value do you get out of worrying about the
               | nuclear threat, that makes it worth it?
        
               | valval wrote:
               | What? I have a son and a wife and I couldn't care less
               | about nuclear war or climate change or any abstract and
               | distant catastrophe that could face humanity as a whole.
               | 
               | Living in the future is a silly affair. There's only one
               | moment and it's the present.
        
             | mistrial9 wrote:
             | I once knew an academic who would not fly in an airplane.
             | He was invited to a distinguished conference across the
             | country, but complained to me that he was too scared to
             | fly. "Why?" I ask.. "Terrorists" he replied.. "it is too
             | serious. I just can't do it". so a year or two pass and
             | then I see this Academic again. While talking he mentions
             | that he just returned from a great conference far away.
             | "What? I thought you were afraid to fly in an airplane!" ..
             | He replies "that was true, I was scared of someone carrying
             | a bomb on the flight. But, I calculated the statistical
             | odds of there being TWO bombs on a single plane, and it was
             | infinitesimal..."
             | 
             | "So now I carry my own!"
        
             | brightball wrote:
             | I think for a lot of people, myself included, you try not
             | to worry about things you can't control.
             | 
             | "Worrying is like a rocking chair. It gives you something
             | to do, but it doesn't get you anywhere. Write that down." -
             | Van Wilder
        
               | jszymborski wrote:
               | While this apathy is an important coping mechanism to
               | some degree, it's important not to become complacent.
               | It's precisely this apathy and hopelessness that
               | authoritarian regimes cultivate to prevent action.
        
               | dfxm12 wrote:
               | I don't think this registers as apathy in this context.
               | Maybe you live in a country that has nuclear weapons and
               | can vote for one leader or another. This may or may not
               | have some impact on things. Certainly, we cannot
               | influence what other countries do with their arsenals.
               | Our mental stacks can only run so deep & I'd wager for
               | most of us, the things that _are_ in our sphere of
               | influence simply take priority.
        
               | jszymborski wrote:
               | > This may or may not have some impact on things.
               | Certainly, we cannot influence what other countries do
               | with their arsenals.
               | 
               | It demonstrably does. Nuclear arms reduction treaties
               | have been enacted in the past and it is hard to believe
               | that it would have happened without the popular support
               | it enjoyed.
               | 
               | Just because we are at a time in history where many of
               | those treatise have been weakened or left by the wayside
               | shouldn't be a reason for us to forget them and the good
               | they did.
               | 
               | > Our mental stacks can only run so deep & I'd wager for
               | most of us, the things that are in our sphere of
               | influence simply take priority.
               | 
               | It's a challenge to look beyond ourselves, but we must
               | have the courage to do so. Many people here have the
               | resources to act in the interest of their family, their
               | neighborhood, their community, and their country. It's
               | hard not to be selfish. We can't all afford not to be.
               | Most of us can, however.
        
               | mistermann wrote:
               | This makes it sound like regimes like ours necessarily do
               | not also engage in it, which seems "a bit off" to me.
        
               | jszymborski wrote:
               | I'm not sure what you mean by "ours" as this is the
               | internet, but yes, to the extent that there are
               | authoritarian elements in every government, most
               | governments do this to some degree. It's important to
               | fight against these authoritarian elements as best as one
               | can, especially if you are in a position of influence.
               | 
               | It's also important, however, not to equivocate between
               | totalitarian regimes like Russia and (albeit imperfectly)
               | open democracies like the USA in instances like this.
               | Just because no government is without sin does not mean
               | they are all the same.
        
               | mistermann wrote:
               | Most people also don't worry about whether what they
               | think they have no control over is actually true.
        
             | LeifCarrotson wrote:
             | Worry is unproductive in the sense of feeling anxiety,
             | sure, but it's noble to worry at the various hammers in the
             | archaic definition to "move, proceed, or progress by
             | unceasing or difficult effort, to shake or pull at with the
             | teeth."
             | 
             | Some of the hammers such as the hammer representing nuclear
             | weapons - are caused by people and can be solved by people.
             | There's a big game theoretic hill to climb over, but social
             | pressure and advocacy have been effective at making
             | progress. Others, like cancer and general senescence, are
             | more of a looming threat that's a fundamental
             | characteristic of biology, we can (and should) worry at
             | them to make incremental progress but we're unlikely to
             | suddenly eliminate them. The murder rate is enormously
             | dependent on individual location and individual
             | relationships. Traffic/bicycle/pedestrian accidents are
             | enormously dependent on individual behavior.
             | 
             | Of those threats, addressing the problem of nuclear weapons
             | - especially for a member of Nihon Hidankyo, with a
             | personal and persuasive story of the damages these weapons
             | caused - is probably near the top of the list for actions
             | which can have the greatest positive change.
        
             | klibertp wrote:
             | Cancer isn't something that humans develop and control.
             | It's also very unlikely to kill 20-year-olds. On the other
             | hand, it's almost guaranteed if you happen to live long
             | enough. Finally, getting cancer doesn't mean that everybody
             | around you also gets one. Getting hit by a nuke is
             | something that is totally under human control, it's not
             | going to discriminate by age or gender, and is likely to
             | wipe out most of the humans you care about along with you.
             | 
             | A better comparison would be climate change vs nukes. If
             | you have the time to worry about the former, you should
             | _also_ worry about the latter since if the nukes go off, we
             | won 't even get a chance to get killed by the environment.
        
           | vkou wrote:
           | My parents had no problem reminding us that we all live with
           | a nuclear sword hanging over our heads.
           | 
           | It just so happens that most people in the West are
           | comfortable, are completely insulated from the consequences
           | of war, and can't even imagine a _regular_ war happening to
           | _them_.
           | 
           | And nuclear war is so much more horrifying and its
           | consequences are so much beyond the pale, that people can't
           | even think of what it would mean.
        
             | Arrath wrote:
             | Oh I can imagine it happening. I'm currently working in
             | Pearl Harbor and find myself hoping that I'll be on-base if
             | the balloon goes up, thus avoiding any post-apocalyptic
             | survival bullshit in a brilliant flash.
        
             | macintux wrote:
             | > It just so happens that most people in the West are
             | comfortable, are completely insulated from the consequences
             | of war, and can't even imagine a regular war happening to
             | them.
             | 
             | One of my great disappointments after 9/11 was that U.S.
             | citizens were not, by and large, asked/expected to make any
             | sacrifices (other than our liberties). It felt that if we
             | were at war, we should all be contributing, but it seemed
             | to me that our value as consumers was more important than
             | as citizens.
        
           | jsbg wrote:
           | maybe your parents aren't old enough to remember how much of
           | the population could expect to die in wars before nuclear
           | weapons (i.e. mutually assured destruction) existed
        
           | layer8 wrote:
           | No, it's simply the end of the cold war that made it a
           | possibility less present in the media. The cold war was cold
           | because making it hot would have meant going nuclear. So the
           | possibility was always closely linked to the state of cold
           | war. Globalization has blurred the picture considerably.
        
         | cchi_co wrote:
         | I agree completely. The award serves as a crucial reminder of
         | the ever-present threat of nuclear weapons
        
         | mc32 wrote:
         | Totally agree this is very relevant today. We have heads of
         | state in the EU and to some degree people in the USG with very
         | cavalier approaches to the ideological war between the West and
         | the BRICS.
         | 
         | I really don't know what the F* they are thinking but they keep
         | pushing further and further and hope there is no elastic snap.
         | It's like they forgot about diplomacy with enemies --at the
         | height of the cold war, at its Apex in the Cuba Missile Crisis,
         | we had communication with the enemy --it was inconceivable we
         | would not have communications with them but now it's a wild
         | west of bluster and provocation. I'm not saying were not right
         | in tamping down aggression, but you have to be cognizant of the
         | perils that exist.
         | 
         | Quite striking is strident opponents of the Hiroshima/Nagasaki
         | decision have few qualms about the prospects of current
         | escalation. It's insane.
        
           | mppm wrote:
           | I'm not sure why this got downvoted. The point is not to bow
           | to Putin in all matters, but to treat the matter with
           | _extreme seriousness_ : Take time to do proper background
           | research, evaluate your sources, give serious consideration
           | to the Russian narrative -- without necessarily agreeing of
           | course, allow for a margin of error both in your own
           | judgement and for stray missiles entering the detection
           | radius, etc. If it still seems like a good idea to take a
           | stand afterwards, OK. But let's please not cause a nuclear
           | war over Facebook likes and political brownie points.
        
             | seabass-labrax wrote:
             | I haven't downvoted it, but one issue with parent's post is
             | that it applies double standards to our nations' responses
             | to those of the Cold War. During the 20th century, the
             | _public_ impression of diplomacy was the very same  'wild
             | west of bluster and provocation' - only nowadays, we get to
             | see more behind the scenes of the Cold War as files are
             | declassified and then-current affairs become history. The
             | propaganda from the American and Soviet leadership was no
             | more nuanced historically than it is now from contemporary
             | leaders like Putin and Trump (and since parent mentioned
             | the EU, we could include European figures such as von der
             | Leyen here as well).
             | 
             | I predict that future history books will observe a certain
             | amount of care and diplomatic engagement in our era that
             | isn't visible from the press releases and the ways in which
             | politicians _want_ to be seen.
        
             | nrml_amnt wrote:
             | What is the Russian narrative? How to give consideration
             | for something that is not even meant to be sensical?
        
               | mppm wrote:
               | Ah... NATO expansion? Alleged discrimination against the
               | Russian majority in Eastern Ukraine? Alleged foreign
               | interference in the Maidan revolution? Not that I'm
               | trying to start a discussion here, but dismissing the
               | other side's arguments as "not even meant to be sensical"
               | is _exactly_ what I was arguing against.
        
               | thereisnospork wrote:
               | Being non-sensical is the point of that school of
               | rhetoric.
               | 
               | Briefly summarized: Power is being able to say something
               | false, that the audience knows is false, that the speaker
               | knows the audience knows is false, and that the audience
               | knows that the speaker knows the audience knows is false
               | -- but the audience can't/wont speak up.
        
               | wk_end wrote:
               | None of this is a legitimate _casus belli_ in any sense
               | of the term. You're suggesting we ought to take seriously
               | the geopolitical equivalent of "he looked at me funny".
        
               | mc32 wrote:
               | I would you say the Cuban missile crisis was made up by
               | the Kennedy admin? The establishment was ready to war if
               | the missiles were not removed. Being in our "backyard"
               | and sphere of influence (LatAm) we didn't take to it too
               | kindly.
        
               | wk_end wrote:
               | I would say that the Cuban Missile Crisis, indeed, would
               | not have constituted a good reason to invade Cuba. US
               | foreign policy during the Cold War was often pretty
               | indefensible.
               | 
               | But there's still a number of things about this situation
               | that make the comparison flimsy. The relationship between
               | the west and Russia was - and actually still is -
               | significantly less tense than the relationship between
               | the Soviets and the west during the Cold War, for one.
               | 
               | But moreover, the way everything went down was very
               | different.
               | 
               | In the CMC, the Soviets installed their missiles, the US
               | caught wind of this, and pursued a diplomatic solution.
               | The public was, generally, made aware of what was going
               | on and what was at stake.
               | 
               | Ukraine was not made a member of NATO - it hadn't even
               | applied. At no point did Russia even rattle any sabres,
               | offer red lines, or pursue diplomacy. Russia built up its
               | forces along the border in secret and launched a surprise
               | invasion. From the jump they've been offering shifting
               | explanations for the "special military operation" - is it
               | about NATO expansion or "de-Nazification"? - which is one
               | reason why we shouldn't take any of those explanations
               | especially seriously.
        
               | ultimafan wrote:
               | >Ukraine was not made a member of NATO - it hadn't even
               | applied. At no point did Russia even rattle any sabres,
               | offer red lines, or pursue diplomacy.
               | 
               | To be fair, without saying that their position is a
               | defensible one- they've been pretty vocal about Ukraine
               | not becoming aligned with the West for almost 20 years
               | now if not longer, and politicians in the West have been
               | vocal about the exact opposite for at least as long. I
               | see people saying online that what's happening now was
               | completely irrational and unexpected but that's not
               | really true. We know it's a sore point for them and have
               | been goading them with a "will we won't we" over a clear
               | red line they've drawn for a long while now.
               | https://www.rferl.org/a/1079726.html
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | I don't know why you're bringing BRICS into this. Brazil and
           | South Africa aren't nuclear powers (at least not anymore, and
           | South Africa is an irrelevant failed state anyway). India
           | isn't engaged in any sort of ideological war with the West.
           | Their nukes are purely defensive to deter China and Pakistan.
           | 
           | That leaves China and Russia. We learned during the Cold War
           | that a policy of aggressive containment is effective and this
           | should continue. Don't give them an inch.
        
           | Hammershaft wrote:
           | BRICS? What ideological war is South Africa, India, and
           | Brazil waging against the west? Members of Brics such as
           | India and China are closer to war with each other then they
           | are to war with the West.
        
         | wdr1 wrote:
         | > I sometimes feel like the world has forgotten that nuclear
         | weapons still exist
         | 
         | I don't understand this. Between Iran and the Russia/Ukraine
         | conflict, they seem to be very top of mind for many.
        
         | MisterBastahrd wrote:
         | The entire purpose of nuclear armaments is to make certain wars
         | too nasty to fathom engaging in. If their organization didn't
         | exist at all, we'd still have exactly the same number of
         | nuclear war casualties since the 1940s.
        
           | Hammershaft wrote:
           | Interdependence via global trade makes it unlikely that
           | without nuclear weapons we would have nearly the number of
           | wars we had in the 1940s.
        
             | WillPostForFood wrote:
             | In 1913, Norman Angell published a book called "The Great
             | Illusion" in which he argued that the use of military force
             | had become economically futile due to the
             | interconnectedness of international finance and trade.
             | World War I started one year later. Trade and
             | interconnectedness probably have a net positive effect on
             | reducing war, but not a reliable guarantee.
        
             | valval wrote:
             | Thats not a thing though is it? Sanctions aren't affecting
             | Russia in any capacity.
        
               | MisterBastahrd wrote:
               | Sanctions are hurting Russia financially. Putin doesn't
               | care because he can extract wealth from oligarchs in
               | whatever manner he sees fit. That's the benefit of being
               | a dictator who has a wealth of knowledge on how to watch
               | his own back after his career in intelligence work. He'll
               | just tell his people to create some propaganda and
               | everyone will fall into line.
        
               | aguaviva wrote:
               | _Sanctions aren't affecting Russia in any capacity._
               | 
               | Definitely false. They were never the slam dunk that they
               | were supposed to be, and it's true to say their effect
               | has been significantly blunted. But that's not the same
               | as "no effect". It's just turned out to be a
               | comparatively mild one (but important nonetheless).
        
       | contrarian1234 wrote:
       | It's a bit unclear to me why you need an organization that
       | advocates against nuclear weapons. I'd argue the "nuclear taboo"
       | is just the product of.. I don't just seeing one nuclear test
       | video? It doesn't take the cataloging of witness testimony to see
       | it's terror (though that may be important in its own right)
       | 
       | I'm not intimately familiar with Japanese self-perceptions - but
       | from the outside it seems like post-WW2 the country really leaned
       | into a view that "nuclear weapons are terrible" to the point of
       | distraction - instead of a more self-reflective "nationalism is
       | terrible" or something along those lines. There seems to be much
       | less anxiety about preventing getting into a similar situations
       | that triggered WW2: neo-colonial military bullying and domination
       | of neighbors, xenaphobic oppression of ethnic groups, sycophantic
       | following of cultural leaders etc. and an intense worry about the
       | more tangeable use of nuclear weapons - which I'd argue is
       | something that even if it were to come to pass would almost
       | certainly never involve the Japanese people.
       | 
       | I wonder how this seeming diversion of public attention is
       | perceived in Japan itself.
       | 
       | As I understand it, the anti-nationalist narrative was repressed
       | due to anti-communist agendas of the occupation forces (ex:
       | freeing of nationalist war criminals)
       | 
       | Would be curious to hear from anyone Japanese on the topic
        
         | nabla9 wrote:
         | The general human tendency to focus on single short term events
         | seems to be the main cause.
         | 
         | Let's compare using Wikipedia as a source:
         | Atomic bombings in Japan:         50,000-246,000 casualties.
         | Air Raids in Japan:         241,000-900,000 killed,
         | 213,000-1,300,000 wounded,         8,500,000 rendered homeless.
         | 
         | Mass killings of large civilian populations should not happen.
         | I don't personally see nuclear weapons as worse than incendiary
         | bombs or artillery. It's the number of casualties that makes it
         | horrible.
        
           | Dalewyn wrote:
           | I agree. I've been to the Hiroshima Peace Park or whatever
           | it's called in English numerous times, but I can't say I've
           | been anymore moved by it than any other demonstration of
           | human brutality.
           | 
           | I can't register a difference between a nuclear bomb and,
           | say, a GBU-12 Paveway conventional bomb. They both destroy
           | and kill brutally, the magnitude is irrelevant and it would
           | be great if we never have to use either of them.
        
             | faggotbreath wrote:
             | A nuke and a pave way? That's like comparing a 22lr to a
             | 155mm HE shell.
        
           | defrost wrote:
           | The evidence we have is
           | 
           | * one early bomb is more or less equivilant to one
           | conventional HE + incendiary raid.
           | 
           | * 2,000+ _other_ bombs have since been detonated, a good
           | number of which were orders of magnitudes more destructive
           | than the early  "first gen" bombs used on Japan.
           | 
           | Nuclear war with the larger weapons that followed would be
           | considerably worse than incendiary bombs, in physical
           | destruction, in immediate deaths, and in injuries and
           | following mortalities.
        
             | nabla9 wrote:
             | It's all about scale. Not about the type weapons
             | themselves. All the testifying of the horrors seems
             | irrelevant.
             | 
             | Using nuclear weapons only tactically against counterforce
             | targets would not be that horrifying.
        
         | gabaix wrote:
         | The Hiroshima museum, while advocating for a nuclear free
         | world, has an interesting take on why the US dropped the bomb
         | on them.
         | 
         | According to them, the US dropped the bomb because they wanted
         | to show their strengths against the Soviets. It makes little to
         | no mention of the bloody battles in the Pacific.
        
         | makeitdouble wrote:
         | > instead of a more self-reflective "nationalism is terrible"
         | or something along those lines.
         | 
         | It used to bother me a lot, until I realized that
         | 
         | - the US purposefully left the Emperor in place with only a
         | slap on the fingers ("you're not a god anymore...except for
         | those who still believe you are")
         | 
         | - all surrounding countries have incentives to to keep
         | distances from Japan (in particular as long as the US are
         | there, Japan and China will never be allies, same for Russia),
         | Taiwan being the exception.
         | 
         | I see no future where Japan nationalism is truly solved, short
         | of these two things also getting solved. And boy is there no
         | end in sight to this.
        
           | Dalewyn wrote:
           | >the US purposefully left the Emperor in place with only a
           | slap on the fingers
           | 
           | This was a deliberate political decision in an effort to not
           | repeat the grave mistake of how post-WW1 Germany was handled
           | which essentially led to WW2. Denying Japan of their identity
           | and dignity would have risked an eventual WW3, and the US did
           | not want to even entertain the possibility.
           | 
           | It also didn't help that practically all of Japan were not
           | going to see their Emperor deposed or worse; Japan was
           | willing to compromise on literally everything _but_ the
           | Emperor in making peace with the US and the west, and the
           | extended Imperial family along with all the other nobles
           | thereof lost their titles and powers in the post-war
           | occupation and restructuring.
        
             | makeitdouble wrote:
             | I think we're mostly in agreement. It was a strategic move
             | and it might have helped a lot letting Japan get back on
             | its feet. And it's also the move that left the deep deep
             | nationalism in place and it's still here today.
             | 
             | Perhaps there was no way to have one without the other, but
             | at least I want to look at it as a series of cause and
             | consequences.
             | 
             | Crazy popular anime girl representations of WW2 battleships
             | is the most funniest form of that reality IMHO.
        
         | Dalewyn wrote:
         | I'm Japanese-American, so I can throw two cents in your hat.
         | 
         | Post-war Japan is against nuclear weapons to an absolute, but
         | it must be admitted that the response to nukes in particular is
         | just as much a kneejerk reaction. NHK literally _spams_ the
         | entirety of August with anti-nuclear propaganda every year.
         | Japan 's anti-nuclear stance is also hypocritically at odds
         | with relying on the US nuclear umbrella for national security.
         | 
         | More rationally, post-war Japan is against wars of any and all
         | kinds to an absolute. This goes as far as refusing to defend
         | the US in the event of an attack on the US-Japan alliance; this
         | was only changed recently in the last decade or so after strong
         | pressure from the US to reciprocate the US's defense
         | commitments to Japan.
         | 
         | Nationalism is a... complex topic. You will be considered a
         | crazy person if you wave the Japanese flag or put up a flagpole
         | on or around your house, but at the same time loyalty and
         | reverence to the Emperor still remains strong and the country
         | is politically and culturally very conservative/liberal with a
         | very interesting mix of individualism and conformity. Most
         | Japanese ex-pats actually leave Japan because they are more
         | progressive and can't stand the conservative culture.
         | 
         | Japan is actually quite welcoming of foreigners, but there is a
         | hard gentlemen's agreement that if you're in Japan you do as
         | the Japanese do. Those who can adapt are welcomed, those who
         | can't/don't are excluded and ejected sooner or later.
        
         | krisoft wrote:
         | > I'd argue the "nuclear taboo" is just the product of.. I
         | don't just seeing one nuclear test video?
         | 
         | And yet some high ranking military planers were seriously
         | pushing for employing nuclear weapons in Vietnam. Do you think
         | they just haven't seen any nuclear test videos?
         | 
         | > It's a bit unclear to me why you need an organization that
         | advocates against nuclear weapons.
         | 
         | Because humans keep building, and fielding nuclear weapons. Not
         | sure where you live, but chances are good your taxes are used
         | to build, and maintain nuclear weapons and the means to carry
         | them.
        
       | tgv wrote:
       | In "The Making of the Atomic Bomb" by Rhodes, a poignant point
       | was made, originating from people like Bohr, who were definitely
       | on the peaceful side: without demonstrating the effect of the
       | atomic bomb, the "nuclear taboo" would not have come into
       | existence, and the first large conflict between nuclear powers
       | would have seen a terrible outcome. The use of the bomb was
       | inevitable, so it was sadly better to use it in a restricted war,
       | before the US and the CCCP would use them against each other and
       | the rest of the world.
        
         | 082349872349872 wrote:
         | That might have been a better argument if the USSR[0] had had
         | the bomb in 1945[1]?
         | 
         | Lagniappe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRLON3ddZIw#t=15s
         | 
         | [0] first test: 29.08.1949
         | 
         | [1] a year in which the US and USSR were, however tenuously,
         | _still allied_
        
           | cbolton wrote:
           | Does it matter? It was probably obvious to the scientists
           | working on the bomb that other countries would get it too
           | sooner or later, including countries at odds with each other.
        
             | 082349872349872 wrote:
             | I don't know.
             | 
             | Could Hirohito (Suzuki, etc.) have been convinced by bombs
             | dropped elsewhere?
             | 
             | (our physicists were able to back-of-the-envelope; should
             | their physicists have needed hundreds of thousands of
             | civilian deaths to calculate what an A-bomb could do?)
             | 
             | So I think it's not obvious (multiple books have been
             | written on the subject) what could or should have been done
             | or not done back then; now, from my point of view, those
             | cards have been dealt, for good or for ill.
        
               | tgv wrote:
               | Hirohito was apparently convinced after the bomb on
               | Hiroshima, the cabinet and military staff still wanted to
               | fight on after the bomb on Nagasaki. They even tried to
               | block his radio speech.
               | 
               | Personally, I think it was tragic, but there was not much
               | choice. Forcing Japan to its knees by conventional means
               | would have been a prolonged bloodbath (with the Soviets
               | getting in the game as well), with probably a higher
               | death toll.
        
               | smsm42 wrote:
               | > Could Hirohito (Suzuki, etc.) have been convinced by
               | bombs dropped elsewhere?
               | 
               | Not likely, Tokyo was firebombed to ashes and it didn't
               | move him to surrender.
        
             | thimabi wrote:
             | But was it really obvious? From what I can tell, much of
             | the nuclear arms race happened thanks to espionage. Had
             | information on warheads and the like been properly
             | contained, maybe other countries would not have so easily
             | developed the bomb.
        
               | throw0101c wrote:
               | > _Had information on warheads and the like been properly
               | contained, maybe other countries would not have so easily
               | developed the bomb._
               | 
               | The Soviets had people inside the Manhattan Project / Los
               | Alamos. As the US made progress that information was fed
               | to the Soviets/Russians.
               | 
               | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaus_Fuchs
               | 
               | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_spies
        
               | tgv wrote:
               | Not so easily, but they would have done it. Once it was
               | known, there wouldn't have been any way to stop Stalin.
               | His paranoia knew no limits. And then there would have
               | been dozens, hundreds when the war would break out,
               | nobody would be scared to use them.
        
               | smsm42 wrote:
               | Unfortunately, democracies have their downsides. One of
               | them is that "properly containing" things is extremely
               | hard. Soviet spy network was vast and infiltrated all
               | tiers of US society, and without instituting some
               | extremely draconian policies, compared to which McCarthy
               | would look like a hippie, I don't see how it would be
               | possible to prevent it. Especially given a lot of top
               | scientists were, unfortunately, if not communists
               | themselves than quite friendly with communists and would
               | probably refuse to cooperate with any draconian regime
               | that would be capable of suppressing the communist
               | networks.
        
           | quickthrowman wrote:
           | Japan was better off in the long run being occupied solely by
           | the US instead of a split occupation with the Soviets like
           | Germany. If we hadn't dropped the two bombs, the Soviets were
           | set to invade northern Japan.
        
           | smsm42 wrote:
           | They were allies by necessity, but I don't think there were a
           | lot of illusions about where things age heading. After all,
           | the official doctrine of the Communist Party has always been
           | that every non-communist regime has to be violently
           | overthrown and replaced by a communist one. USSR didn't have
           | the bomb not because they didn't want one, but because they
           | were incapable of building one by themselves, and stealing
           | all the details by means of vast spy network they had in the
           | US, and then recreating them on their side, took time. If
           | they had the capacity, they'd do it as fast as possible.
        
         | istjohn wrote:
         | > And to the others he said in mine hearing, Go ye after him
         | through the city, and smite: let not your eye spare, neither
         | have ye pity:
         | 
         | > Slay utterly old and young, both maids, and little children,
         | and women...
         | 
         | Ezekial 9:5-6
         | 
         | > Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they
         | have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant
         | and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass.
         | 
         | 1 Samuel 15:3
         | 
         | > And every living substance was destroyed which was upon the
         | face of the ground, both man, and cattle, and the creeping
         | things, and the fowl of the heaven; and they were destroyed
         | from the earth: and Noah only remained alive, and they that
         | were with him in the ark.
         | 
         | Genesis 7:23
         | 
         | Two and a half thousand years later, human nature is unchanged.
         | How easily we make peace with wholesale slaughter.
        
           | octopoc wrote:
           | All those examples are from a single ancient culture. Why did
           | you pick only from that culture?
        
             | istjohn wrote:
             | They are quotes from the most important text of our Western
             | culture, the sacred scripture of the world's largest
             | religion.
        
               | onursurme wrote:
               | And similar things are still going on today
        
       | WhereIsTheTruth wrote:
       | Not sure if that organisation is making progress, sounds like a
       | smoke bomb, to please people who care about these meaningless
       | rewards
       | 
       | https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/385216...
        
       | kaon_ wrote:
       | At home I have a book telling stories of Dutch WW2 survivors
       | still living today. One of them was an eye witness account of the
       | Hiroshima bomb. He was a POW and worked in a quarry or mine on
       | the outskirts of town. He saw a single plane fly over. A bomb
       | dropped with a parachute attached. Moments later he was flung to
       | the back of the quarry and the city was gone. I would never have
       | guessed there were eyewitnesses like this, let alone coutrymen of
       | mine.
        
         | LeonM wrote:
         | Which book is it?
        
         | Metacelsus wrote:
         | Little Boy didn't have a parachute. Maybe he was mis-
         | remembering that.
        
           | dogben wrote:
           | There were instruments dropped by parachute.
        
             | tephra wrote:
             | IIRC those were dropped by a second plane accompanying the
             | Enola Gay.
        
         | cchi_co wrote:
         | Just how widespread the effects of World War II were
        
         | trescenzi wrote:
         | The book Hiroshima by John Hersey has many accounts like this.
         | It's a short read and follows six people and covers the first
         | year after the bombing. I'd highly recommend reading it if such
         | accounts are interesting to you.
        
           | tirumaraiselvan wrote:
           | It was published in New Yorker
           | https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1946/08/31/hiroshima
           | 
           | Fun fact the cover image if this edition was kind of a decoy
           | (perhaps to accentuate the shock):
           | https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1946/08/31
        
             | ralfd wrote:
             | Wow, brutal!
             | 
             | As an aside I would never had guessed this artstyle was a
             | 40s cover.
        
         | evanjrowley wrote:
         | My opa was also a Dutch POW and I believe he was working in
         | that same mine on the same day. When it happened, he was deep
         | in the mine, which was evacuated because people inside
         | initially thought the blast was an earthquake. Being a POW was
         | without question extremely hard, but it was the bombing of
         | Hiroshima that resulted in PTSD lasting many years after the
         | war. He survived, retiring in Florida, and passed away in the
         | late 80s. Some US government scientists asked if they could
         | study his body, believing radiation exposure affected his long
         | term health. It seems they were correct because his bones were
         | found to have a slightly blue tint to them.
        
         | hammock wrote:
         | You may be interested in the 1945 Project - which collects the
         | stories of hibakusha,[1] or atomic bomb survivors:
         | https://www.1945project.com/
         | 
         | There is also Yoshito Matsushige, a survivor and the only
         | photographer who was able to capture an immediate, first-hand
         | photographic historical account:
         | https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/key-documents/yoshito-mats...
         | 
         | [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hibakusha
        
       | jojobas wrote:
       | Nuclear weapons are not used not because they are morally
       | unacceptable, but rather because of MAD and their limited
       | efficiency when used against armies.
       | 
       | If you wanted to give a Nobel Prize to someone for preventing
       | nuclear wars, give it to Nuclear Winter researchers and military
       | analysts.
        
       | psychoslave wrote:
       | Nice to see they do somehow recognize the whole association of
       | people and not push to much about a single person. But the
       | committee is trapped with the rules that push for this ridiculous
       | individual centric point of view which is so out of touch with
       | measurable realities considering what forces actually come at
       | play to anything with large social impact.
       | 
       | Also on a side note:
       | 
       | >the most destructive weapons the world has ever seen.
       | 
       | Well, first thing, this is a quite restrictive anthropocentric
       | and restrictive POV for what count for a weapon. Putting appart
       | all things that triggered previous mass extinction as they might
       | not really fit the expectation of weapon and "ever witnessed as
       | implied agent", ok. But let's consider European invasion of
       | America: while this was not intended and per design, it somehow
       | greatly leveraged on bacteriological weapons.
       | 
       | Currently humanity is also at war with biodiversity, and the
       | scale is massive and worldwide, using a large panel of tools.
       | 
       | Of course we are more prone to empathy to our fellow humans, and
       | nuclear weapons are abominations.
        
       | belter wrote:
       | Tsutomu Yamaguchi survived both the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic
       | bombings...
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsutomu_Yamaguchi
        
         | LightBug1 wrote:
         | a.k.a. Tsutomu "Wolverine" Yamaguchi
        
       | Strawberry76 wrote:
       | A good one this year. Some past recipients, not so good...
        
       | cynicalpeace wrote:
       | Phenomenal choice. While 80 years is nice- it's a blip on the
       | timescale of history.
       | 
       | I personally think we're a button click away from going back to
       | the stone age. I know others will disagree, but it's not
       | something you wanna take a gamble on.
       | 
       | I think it's one of the reasons we have to be self sustaining on
       | other heavenly bodies.
       | 
       | And also why wars or proxy wars between nuclear powers are
       | extremely foolish and should be stopped with great urgency.
        
         | mordae wrote:
         | Stone age? Hardly. More like 18th century.
         | 
         | I am more worried that we do not have that many attempts at
         | rebuilding, because coal and oil are finite. OTOH a slower 2nd
         | iteration might actually work better than this one.
        
           | cynicalpeace wrote:
           | "I know others will disagree, but it's not something you
           | wanna take a gamble on."
           | 
           | Far more important than 18th century vs stone age debate is
           | the fact that there are people in charge that would lead us
           | down either path.
        
             | verisimi wrote:
             | > there are people in charge that would lead us down either
             | path
             | 
             | Must you follow?
        
               | cynicalpeace wrote:
               | Would love not to. But I'm not the decider whether we
               | head down the path of nuclear armageddon.
        
           | bonzini wrote:
           | If we lost access to electricity, we'd be completely screwed;
           | we can't even get drinkable water in many places without
           | electricity.
           | 
           | For example where I live there is water around 10-20m depth,
           | but it's polluted (it may be usable for agriculture but not
           | for human consumption); you'd have to dig a well over 100m
           | below the surface.
        
             | generic92034 wrote:
             | The standards for what is fit for human consumption might
             | drastically change in a post-apocalyptic scenario, though.
        
             | kortilla wrote:
             | Boil it
        
         | fifilura wrote:
         | > And also why wars or proxy wars between nuclear powers is
         | extremely foolish and should be stopped with great urgency.
         | 
         | The strict interpretation of that foreign policy is that any
         | nuclear nation is free to invade any non-nuclear nation and
         | abuse its citizens.
         | 
         | Where do you draw the line? If for example an ally is invaded
         | by a nuclear nation. Should you intervene or just call peace?
         | 
         | Does the rule-of-law between countries have any relevance?
        
           | cynicalpeace wrote:
           | You're claiming "wars or proxy wars between nuclear powers"
           | are _not_ "extremely foolish" and should _not_ "be stopped
           | with great urgency"?
        
             | fifilura wrote:
             | Yes but how?
             | 
             | Obviously the invader is not going to stop the war and say
             | "this was foolish". So it is up to all other nations to bow
             | down and let them have their piece of the world.
        
         | dahfizz wrote:
         | Yeah, this is also a big concern of mine. Nuclear weapons
         | haven't been used since ww2, but there also hasn't ever been
         | total war between two nuclear powers.
         | 
         | The current climate in Russia and the Middle East may change
         | that.
        
           | matthewfelgate wrote:
           | The current situation will not lead to nuclear war.
        
         | palata wrote:
         | > I think it's one of the reasons we have to be self sustaining
         | on other heavenly bodies.
         | 
         | I think this is a very naive take.
         | 
         | * We can't really live on another planet in the solar system. *
         | Look at how far the next star is and realise that we won't get
         | there anytime soon (probably at all). * What's the point of
         | surviving on another planet, without any other species? *
         | Without considering the risk of nuclear war, we are in the
         | process of destroying life on Earth.
         | 
         | The resources we put on that project are mostly wasted. We
         | should try to live on Earth, I hear it's a nice place.
        
           | seabass-labrax wrote:
           | I don't personally believe we should colonize other heavenly
           | bodies _because_ of a potential nuclear apocalypse, but the
           | negation of that is no reason to abandon space travel either.
           | Every time we have launched a mission into deep space we have
           | learnt more as a species about what makes Earth  'tick'. We
           | can also do a lot without actual space travel - maybe if more
           | people had heeded the observations of the greenhouse effect
           | on Venus in the 60s, for instance, we would have less of an
           | issue cleaning up our own atmosphere now.
           | 
           | I'm not confident that our place is in the stars, but it
           | would be narrow-minded not to give living out there a go.
        
             | palata wrote:
             | > maybe if more people had heeded the observations of the
             | greenhouse effect on Venus in the 60s
             | 
             | We know pretty well what's happening on Earth and we have
             | for decades. It's not like we just realised 5 years ago
             | that we have a problem. We have not done anything (and we
             | still aren't), but we knew, that's for sure.
             | 
             | > I'm not confident that our place is in the stars, but it
             | would be narrow-minded not to give living out there a go.
             | 
             | In terms of survival as a species, anything that's not
             | about solving our biodiversity and climate problems is a
             | loss of time. I'm fine if some people work on it (just like
             | it's good to have people working in art), but a lot of
             | those researchers and engineers working on space
             | exploration may actually be more useful to the species if
             | they worked on the actual problems we have.
        
               | nyc_data_geek1 wrote:
               | This precisely. We're in fact nowhere close to a
               | sustainable off world human habitat, with all the
               | inputs/outputs such requires, not to mention the
               | ecosystem needed to sustain such in perpetuity.
               | 
               | If people are really interested in perpetuating "the
               | light of consciousness" among the stars, they'd be
               | working themselves to death to make life sustainable here
               | on Earth, where we're from, which still presents far more
               | hospitable conditions relative to anywhere else in the
               | Universe we've so far identified. Say you're a
               | billionaire with such an interest - wouldn't your funds
               | be somewhat better directed ensuring we don't annihilate
               | ourselves in a mad max hellscape locally, before we
               | suffocate in the void when the O2 machine breaks down and
               | we can't source replacement parts because Earth is now a
               | wasteland?
               | 
               | The Great Filter is us, and so far, doesn't look like
               | we're making it past.
        
           | cynicalpeace wrote:
           | I think this is a very naive take.
           | 
           | We could live on Mars. Just a matter of time. Let engineers
           | iterate.
           | 
           | We would obviously bring species here at home with us to
           | Mars. And then new species would flourish too.
        
             | Manuel_D wrote:
             | I don't think people understand just how un-feasible life
             | on Mars would be. It's got 1% of the atmospheric pressure
             | as Earth. It's -65 degrees Celsius. It'd be more feasible
             | to try colonizing the Moon or Antarctica.
        
               | cynicalpeace wrote:
               | We have permanent presence in Antarctica. Depends on your
               | exact definition of "colony", but a narrow definition of
               | it is barred by international treaty, I think.
               | 
               | Moon is definitely a great first step. I originally said
               | "other heavenly bodies".
               | 
               | You sound like someone in 1900 saying "We can't fly,
               | we're too heavy" or "We can't be in space it's got 0%
               | atmospheric pressure".
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | Antartctica has a permanent presence that's totally
               | dependent on regular supplies delivered from other
               | continents. They don't grow their own crops, have their
               | own industry.
               | 
               | We couldn't fly until the early 1900s, primarily because
               | we didn't have engines with power to weight ratios
               | sufficient for heavier-than-air flight. The concept of
               | flight via the Bernoulli principle was known for a long
               | time, and when engines improved people did start flying.
               | 
               | The lack of atmosphere on Mars largely prohibits any self
               | sufficient colony. Colonies could be limited to
               | pressurized habitats. But again, at that point we might
               | as well focus on colonizing the moon which is much
               | closer. I guess if we have a mechanism to somehow pump
               | mars full of air, colonization would become more
               | feasible. But it's a lot harder to work around the law of
               | conservation of mass, than it is to improve internal
               | combustion engines. No, it's not like people doubting the
               | feasibilityy of heavier-than-air flight.
        
               | porbelm wrote:
               | We have an atmosphere.
        
               | palata wrote:
               | > It'd be more feasible to try colonizing the Moon
               | 
               | And just as useless.
        
               | layer8 wrote:
               | Don't forget the radiation.
        
         | dsign wrote:
         | >> I think it's one of the reasons we have to be self
         | sustaining on other heavenly bodies.
         | 
         | This is not a joke. But every time anybody brings it up a mob
         | shows up saying that we _must_ make it work here on Earth, and
         | we should all go to hell if we can 't. But we only need a few
         | madmen in power for the rest of us to not matter.
        
           | fifilura wrote:
           | I imagine that if you can colonize other planets you can also
           | target them with nuclear weapons.
           | 
           | It is like saying that the solution to all problems is
           | colonizing Antarctica.
        
             | Manabu-eo wrote:
             | It's much easier to intercept said nuclear weapon because
             | instead of minutes you would have months to do it. And
             | attacking Mars outside the few months every two years that
             | have the most favorable transfer windows would also be much
             | more difficult. It's a non-trivial advantage.
             | 
             | Of course, if you have nuclear weapons already on Mars that
             | can be remotely triggered from Earth this doesn't apply,
             | but hopefully we can avoid that...
        
               | cynicalpeace wrote:
               | Yes- but raises an interesting problem of nuclear energy.
               | Might be very important/useful in space.
               | 
               | The book series "The Expanse" does an amazing job of
               | showing what a war in space would look like, and the role
               | of nuclear energy.
               | 
               | Interestingly, nukes become small fry compared to
               | slinging asteroids at planets.
        
           | timeon wrote:
           | Point is that if we can not behave on Earth how can we do it
           | in other place.
        
             | fragmede wrote:
             | it's an open question as to how interplanetary politics
             | will actually go. it's possible that ancient squabbles
             | between countries will carryover, but hopefully they won't,
             | which means that a terrorist's nuclear bomb causing MAD on
             | Earth wouldn't necessarily carryover to MAD on a
             | terraformed Mars and Lunar colonies, as we saw with the
             | Russians who boarded the ISS in blue and yellow. But even
             | if it doesn't, Earth being hit by an asteroid is another
             | scenario that being a multi-planetary species would prevent
             | our extinction in.
        
               | throw0101c wrote:
               | > _it 's possible that ancient squabbles between
               | countries_
               | 
               | Don't forget with-in countries.
               | 
               | If another planet becomes another 'country', they'll have
               | internal disagreements.
        
               | protomolecule wrote:
               | >as we saw with the Russians who boarded the ISS in blue
               | and yellow
               | 
               | That's just the colors of one of the top Russian
               | universities from which all three cosmonauts had
               | graduated. [0]
               | 
               | [0] https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moskovskii_gosudarstven
               | nyi_tekh...
        
             | addaon wrote:
             | > Point is that if we can not behave on Earth how can we do
             | it in other place.
             | 
             | If we have a 90% chance of behaving in any given century,
             | we are doomed on earth. If we have a 10% chance of behaving
             | in any given century, a continuous heritage is possible in
             | a galaxy (re-)populated by slowships.
        
               | palata wrote:
               | Except that the current state of physics says that we
               | just can't possibly reach another galaxy. Period.
        
               | addaon wrote:
               | > Except that the current state of physics says that we
               | just can't possibly reach another galaxy. Period.
               | 
               | Yes, that's exactly why my comment limited itself to
               | discussion of population of /this/ galaxy.
        
               | palata wrote:
               | The next star is already way too far for our theory. You
               | may as well study telekinesis.
        
           | palata wrote:
           | > But every time anybody brings it up a mob shows up saying
           | that we must make it work here on Earth
           | 
           | Yeah, we must. As in: it's not rational to even consider that
           | becoming self-sustaining on other heavenly bodies is an
           | alternative.
           | 
           | It's fun, it's interesting, it's many things. But it's not an
           | alternative.
        
             | kortilla wrote:
             | Of course it's an alternative. A self sustaining colony
             | could be the only thing that survives a massive pandemic.
        
               | palata wrote:
               | Well if it was possible, it would be an alternative. But
               | it's not, period. Counting on it happening in your life
               | time is simply preposterous. But you know what might
               | collapse during your lifetime? Our civilization. Pretty
               | likely.
        
           | layer8 wrote:
           | The point is that making it work on Earth is orders of
           | magnitude easier than making it work on Mars (or wherever).
           | And by that I don't mean that it's easy by any stretch, but
           | that establishing a self-sustaining colony on another planet
           | is so much harder. In addition to the extremely challenging
           | extraterrestrial environment (much more challenging than
           | anything we have on Earth, including in the case of
           | terrestrial nuclear catastrophe), all the problems that we
           | have on Earth due to human nature will travel with us to any
           | other planet if we don't manage to solve them here.
        
         | mihaaly wrote:
         | Humanity en masse are superficial ignorant pretentious idiots.
         | They are so pretentious that they pretend they are not
         | pretentious and they care a lot ('It is utmost important for us
         | [arbitrary lie here]'). Except Trump kind of people. They
         | honestly and proudly announce that they give no fuck about
         | anyone but themselves.
        
           | psychoslave wrote:
           | >Humanity en masse are superficial ignorant pretentious
           | idiots.
           | 
           | Oh I see how I can perfectly fit this role sure, I tell you
           | so as the most humble entity that universe ever spawned.
           | 
           | It was of the outmost importance for me to deliver this lie:
           | I don't care about anyone, humanity can go extinct, self
           | included, and it doesn't trigger any emotion in me.
        
         | throw0101c wrote:
         | > _I personally think we 're a button click away from going
         | back to the stone age._
         | 
         | One reason to use less oil now is to perhaps preserve it in
         | case we need to 'reboot' civilization in the future in case of
         | a future cataclysm.
         | 
         | We were only able to reach beyond (near-)subsistence living
         | because of cheap energy, first coal and later petroleum. All
         | the easily accessible stuff is now kind of gone, so if there's
         | another collapse (which may be more likely to be global in
         | nature: see pandemics), then depending on how much knowledge we
         | lose it could be hard to get back to the say level without the
         | previously cheap/easy energy.
         | 
         | In past collapses (Europe: Western Roman Empire, Black Death)
         | we were able to eventually recover because we at a simply
         | technological level that could keep going even with the loss of
         | a lot of knowledge.
         | 
         | > _I think it 's one of the reasons we have to be self
         | sustaining on other heavenly bodies._
         | 
         | I think this will be impossible given advanced countries can't
         | even be self-sufficient on Earth.
         | 
         | Is there oil on those heavenly bodies? Probably no, so you're
         | importing your lubricants and seals/o-rings. Advanced fabs? No?
         | Well you're importing your electronics. What kind of silica is
         | there, because if you don't have the right kind of sand, you're
         | mot making your own solar panels. How much radioactive material
         | (uranium, plutonium, thorium, _etc_ ) is around if you want to
         | try nuclear power.
        
           | lutorm wrote:
           | There is _so_ much coal... I wouldn 't worry about running
           | out of that.
        
             | throw0101c wrote:
             | > _There is so much coal... I wouldn 't worry about running
             | out of that._
             | 
             | It's not just about quantity, but accessibility: early coal
             | was on the surface in the UK, and when they depleted that
             | they had to create pumps to drain the mines--which led to
             | all sorts of discoveries when it comes to pressure, which
             | got translated into steam engine advancements.
             | 
             | In the past you could almost literally stick a straw in the
             | ground in parts of the US and suck oil out of the ground.
             | You have to go further afield in many cases now.
        
           | palata wrote:
           | > I think this will be impossible given advanced countries
           | can't even be self-sufficient on Earth.
           | 
           | And that's only after you've passed the fact that it's
           | impossible for us to reach the next star.
        
         | EasyMark wrote:
         | So like usual I offer up "what's your alternative" ? Is it to
         | ignore Russian's invasion of countries? Ignore Iran's chaos it
         | wants to sew constantly in the Middle East? It's easy to say
         | "just be peaceful" but history shows that countries are not
         | peaceful towards one another, they constantly want to take
         | other's resources, or force their way of life on others, or
         | settle some vague issue they have with another country (or
         | people there). I think most people would love if countries
         | would just stop attacking others. right now we don't have the
         | tech to live on "other bodies", that is pie in the sky. I would
         | love if nation-states just stopped the nonsense and were good
         | to one another and their inhabitants, but that has never been
         | the case.
        
           | quotz wrote:
           | Irans wants to sew chaos? The whole conflict with Iran
           | started because the US and UK installed a puppet government
           | (Pahlavi) so they can control the oil. After Pahlavi was
           | ousted, the religious extreme took control, and cut ties with
           | the west as a result. Its more like the west wanted chaos and
           | started this whole mess
        
             | cynicalpeace wrote:
             | It's this same mentality that got us in trouble in
             | literally all conflicts of the past 40 years. One day it's
             | gonna get us blown up and I hope it's not over the Donbas.
        
           | exoverito wrote:
           | The CIA was actively involved in the Maidan revolution, which
           | sought to pull Ukraine out of Russia's sphere of influence
           | and into the EU / NATO. Obviously this is antagonistic
           | towards Russia, especially when they have so few natural
           | barriers to defend against invasion of their land. Look at
           | how quickly the Wagner group reached Moscow after defecting
           | from the Ukrainian front.
           | 
           | If the shoe were on the other foot, and China had supported a
           | revolution in Mexico and was setting up military bases, the
           | American government would not take it lightly. The US would
           | cook up some reason to wage war against Mexico as a
           | continuation of the Monroe Doctrine. These wars are not about
           | good and evil, as much as it's about empires and power.
        
           | cynicalpeace wrote:
           | You realize achieving a compromise is not simply "ignoring"
           | or surrendering to Russia?
           | 
           | Putin and Biden haven't spoken in years. I would say you're
           | proposing ignoring the situation until it becomes even more
           | of a powder keg in a decade or two.
           | 
           | Alternative is accepting some territorial losses,
           | compromising, soldiers go home. Doomsday clock ticks back to
           | 5 minutes to midnight.
           | 
           | You're acting as if this is the first time anyone has annexed
           | territory. Do I like it? No. But you gotta manage with the
           | cards you're dealt and that territory is not worth decades
           | long conflict with two major nuclear powers.
        
             | aguaviva wrote:
             | _You realize achieving a compromise is not simply
             | "ignoring" or surrendering to Russia?_
             | 
             | Depends on the degree of compromise.
             | 
             | What kind of compromises do you think Ukraine should make
             | at this point in order to win "peace" with Russia?
             | 
             | Specifics needed please, especially in regard to: (1) the
             | proportion of currently occupied territory Ukraine would
             | need to grant permanent recognized sovereignty to Russia
             | on; (2) the proportion of the the estimated 1T in material
             | damage caused to Ukraine that Russia would need to pay
             | before sanctions are lifted; and (3) the matter of some 20k
             | abducted citizens, mostly minors that Ukraine asserts (with
             | a high degree of credibility) are currently behind held by
             | Russia?
             | 
             | Because it's the specifics that matter.
             | 
             | (BTW, future NATO status is mostly symbolic at this point;
             | items (1)-(3) are what really matter).
        
             | anigbrowl wrote:
             | _Alternative is accepting some territorial losses,
             | compromising, soldiers go home._
             | 
             | This is just _machtpolitik._
        
         | walrushunter wrote:
         | Yeah, we should just stop all wars. Great idea! How has nobody
         | thought of this before???
        
       | melasadra wrote:
       | As some other commenters have pointed out: It is lamentable that
       | the focus is almost always on the atomic bombing itself instead
       | of why it came to that point at all.
       | 
       | Many Asian countries feel scant sympathy toward Japan. From
       | Indonesia to Malaysia to the Philipipines or even worse and for
       | much longer, in Korea and China. In each of these countries the
       | Japanese perpetrated massacre, forced labour, gang rape and
       | forced prostitution in the millions. Even European women who were
       | stranded in their former colonies were not spared. In fact their
       | diaries are the foremost historical sources.
       | 
       | Their brutality is such that the hatred towards colonialist
       | European nations were ameliorated and pretty much forgotten these
       | days. It's sickening to me that outside East and Southeast Asia
       | itself, most of the world only remember Nagasaki and Hiroshima
       | when it comes to casualties in the Pacific theatre of WW2.
       | 
       | This sympathy felt even more misplaced considering even to this
       | very day, unlike Germany, Japanese historiograpy deliberately
       | downplays Japan brutality during occupation or that there was any
       | aggression on their part at all. Most Japanese college mates in
       | the US that I've talked to were not even aware that Japan
       | occupied my country for years resulting in millions of
       | casualties.
        
         | yread wrote:
         | There are also well-maintained shrines (like Yasukuni) to the
         | Japanese war criminals frequented even by high-level
         | politicians (former PM went there, current ministers went
         | there). Imagine that in current Germany!
        
           | glandium wrote:
           | The Yasukuni situation is more complex than "the shrine for
           | war criminals". A lot more people are enshrined there, the
           | war criminals are a tiny fraction (and were only added in
           | 1978, while the shrine was established 109 years earlier). To
           | give you an example of an important and less controversial
           | figure enshrined there: Sakamoto Ryoma. There are 2+ millions
           | souls enshrined there.
        
       | matthewfelgate wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
         | gus_massa wrote:
         | What about right wing dictatorships backed by the CIA?
        
           | wtcactus wrote:
           | Is there any right wing dictatorship backed by CIA that has
           | nuclear weapons?
        
         | aguaviva wrote:
         | _while Iran has them,_
         | 
         | Present tense, you say?
        
         | dang wrote:
         | Can you please make your substantive points without name-
         | calling and flamebait? We've had to ask you this before!
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
           | matthewfelgate wrote:
           | What's name calling?
        
       | Timari wrote:
       | I watched the film "Threads" last night, anyone in any doubt
       | about the horrific consequences of a nuclear exchange should
       | watch it. The speed at which society falls apart is simply
       | terrifying. Those poor souls unlucky to be in a war zone will
       | understand better than I ever will. The world needs a new order.
        
       | tomp wrote:
       | This is a bad choice.
       | 
       | Nuclear weapons are the biggest cause of the last 80 years of
       | peace between major world powers.
       | 
       | The best way to stop nuclear weapons from ever being used again,
       | is to keep lots of them, in as many countries as possible
       | (mutually assured destruction).
        
         | thimabi wrote:
         | Nuclear weapons have not prevented major world powers from
         | engaging in proxy wars. As we can see today in the Middle East,
         | proxy wars can make things dangerous and more likely to lead to
         | an unwanted escalation.
         | 
         | Mutually assured destruction works best when the number of
         | involved parties is limited. If every state were to have a
         | warhead of its own, many risks would increase: those of
         | miscalculation, nuclear proliferation to non-state actors, etc.
        
         | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
         | What if a fanatical leader has them? Castro said he would have
         | nuked the US if he could and didn't care if Cuba gets
         | destroyed.
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtUfBc4qQMg
        
           | protomolecule wrote:
           | >What if a fanatical leader has them?
           | 
           | Like Nixon, you mean? [0]
           | 
           | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory#Richard_Nixon
        
             | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
             | Not at all. A fanatic wouldn't feign it, they'd do it. Self
             | destruction be damned.
        
               | protomolecule wrote:
               | So why mention Castro?
        
               | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
               | Because the person I responded to said that if everyone
               | has nukes we are safer because of MAD but if Castro had
               | nukes he would have used them!
               | 
               | Fanatical leaders don't give a damn about MAD
        
               | protomolecule wrote:
               | How do you know that Castro would've used them?
        
               | zorked wrote:
               | The linked video, which is a claim by somebody who isn't
               | Castro, said that he recommended using them as a response
               | to a US attack - not unconditionally. It's the principle
               | of MAD, and the same as the US doctrine.
        
         | exmadscientist wrote:
         | It is, as so often the case, a classic prisoner's dilemma
         | problem [0]: "no nukes" is pretty clearly superior to "any
         | nukes at all", but "they have nukes but we don't" is game over,
         | so... nukes for all (major world powers)!
         | 
         | It's awful, but that's the prisoner's dilemma for you. I have a
         | hard time respecting any anti-nuclear activist who doesn't at
         | least acknowledge this facet of things, even if "no one has
         | nukes and no one can easily get them" really would be best for
         | the world.
         | 
         | [0]: if anyone hasn't seen it before, the interactive
         | https://ncase.me/trust/ on the iterated prisoner's dilemma is
         | _excellent_
        
           | tomp wrote:
           | No, I disagree.
           | 
           | There hasn't been a hot war between nuclear powered states,
           | ever.
           | 
           | This is pretty obviously superior compared with the previous
           | "no nukes" era, that had _plenty_ of hot wars...
        
             | jhbadger wrote:
             | Define "hot war". There have been plenty of fighting in
             | border regions of India and Pakistan in recent years, and
             | both have nukes. India since 1974 and Pakistan since 1998.
        
             | whatshisface wrote:
             | Chinese troops and Soviet planes were there in Korea.
        
           | MisterBastahrd wrote:
           | If the past 8 years have shown us anything, it's that we are
           | capable of electing incredibly stupid people who likely would
           | get us into war if being blown back into the stone age
           | weren't a possibility. I like nuclear weapons for that
           | reason. It scares tyrants into complacency on the larger
           | scale.
        
           | keybored wrote:
           | God, spare the world from nerds and their game theories.
           | There have been enough nuclear trigger close calls already.
        
         | ranger207 wrote:
         | I'm also of the opinion that MAD has been the largest single
         | greatest cause of peace in the past 80 years, but I disagree
         | that this award is bad. The reason we haven't seen a single use
         | of nuclear weapons since then, not even relatively small ones,
         | is because of the nuclear taboo that organizations like this
         | have engendered
        
         | linhns wrote:
         | That's not applicable to the mullahs in Iran. If they have
         | they'd use it on Day 1.
        
         | hackable_sand wrote:
         | Just don't use nuclear weapons
        
         | ericmcer wrote:
         | I kind of agree, but we have way too many bombs just floating
         | around.
         | 
         | How many nukes does a country need to have readied in order for
         | mutually assured destruction to be relevant? I feel like 100
         | would be enough to deter any aggression, and if two countries
         | unload their full arsenal at each other would not end life on
         | earth.
         | 
         | Russia and US have closer to 10,000 between them which could
         | pretty much end humanity on any day.
        
           | matthewfelgate wrote:
           | How did you come up with the number 100?
        
       | satvikpendem wrote:
       | I recently went to the Hiroshima museum. I had originally thought
       | that people simply vaporized when the bomb hit, but that is not
       | the case. The museum shows how people's skin simply sloughed off
       | and some were holding parts in their hands as they walked around
       | to find their loved ones.
       | 
       | But the worst part was radiation poisoning. Many that did not
       | initially get hit and burned directly went towards the center of
       | the city to find their families and over the course of days,
       | months and years, they almost always died a slow, painful death,
       | with their teeth falling out and their skin and organs becoming
       | necrotic.
       | 
       | Truly, everyone should visit Hiroshima or Nagasaki at some point,
       | if only to understand what true horrors nuclear weapons create.
       | And those are only atomic weapons of the 1940s, the hydrogen
       | bombs we have today that fuse instead of fiss are orders of
       | magnitude more powerful, but at least those under their effects
       | (near the epicenter) will die a quick vaporized death
       | instantaneously.
        
         | mppm wrote:
         | As an addition (and correction) to this, powerful thermonuclear
         | weapons don't vaporize anyone either. They are targeted for
         | high-altitude airbursts and kill through a combination of burns
         | and building collapse, plus secondary fires, infection and
         | breakdown of emergency services. The majority of the victims
         | would not die an instant death.
         | 
         | For more information:
         | https://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Nwfaq/Nfaq5.html
        
         | seatac76 wrote:
         | I had a similar experience, looking at the contorted metal
         | lunchboxes and other household items was more terrifying, I
         | always used to think things just go poof.
        
         | justinpombrio wrote:
         | Regardless of how big a bomb is, there's going to be a distance
         | at which it's no longer immediately lethal. Inside that radius
         | you die quickly, outside you die slowly.
        
       | cchi_co wrote:
       | The Hibakusha's firsthand accounts and efforts have kept the
       | horrors of nuclear war alive in the world's consciousness,
       | helping to build a lasting taboo against the use of such weapons.
        
       | ChrisArchitect wrote:
       | Of course the reminder of the impact there and the ongoing risk
       | is nice but is this really a relevant and current choice? Why not
       | last year? Why not ten years ago? What success have they even
       | had? Considering where we are right now. This isn't a group
       | making an impact on the ground anywhere right now. Many of the
       | winners in recent years have been civil & human rights activists
       | in real fights on the ground in their countries/regions. The
       | public will take the reminder but mostly shrug the news off.
        
         | istjohn wrote:
         | This discussion proves the importance. We are so far from
         | properly appreciating the horror of nuclear weapons. One would
         | think that after nearly eighty years Americans would be able to
         | apprehend our crimes against the innocents of Hiroshima and
         | Nagasaki with clear vision.
        
       | AlbertCory wrote:
       | The chances of a nuclear bomb being used in the next 30 years is
       | at least 90%. That's an opinion so don't ask for a link.
       | 
       | Why? Purely because of the combinatorial math of proliferation,
       | and the likelihood of either an accident or a crazy person
       | getting control of a bomb.
       | 
       | I wish it weren't so, but eventually your luck runs out.
        
       | hruzgar wrote:
       | So US has nuclear bombs, but japan is somehow not allowed to make
       | their own? Seems like controlled oppression to me
        
         | khuey wrote:
         | Japan is free to withdraw from the NPT at any time.
        
       | retrocryptid wrote:
       | i'm confused. what does Hidankyo have to do with large language
       | models?
        
       | hit8run wrote:
       | It's such a shit show put on by a bunch of sycophants. Barrack
       | Obama and Yasser Arafat are also peace prize winners
        
         | hsavit1 wrote:
         | yeah the peace prize has completely lost any credibility that
         | it may have had.
        
       | deanCommie wrote:
       | The Hiroshimia/Nagasaki situation is one of the best examples I
       | can think of with plenty of evidence of the "history is written
       | by the winners" concept.
       | 
       | It has been justified repeatedly over the years both in terms of
       | relativism ("The firebombing of Tokyo killed more people, yet
       | isn't so controversial"), and in terms of hypotheticals becoming
       | certainties ("The empire was never going to surrender without a
       | massive fight. The US anticipated unprecedented losses from an
       | invasion of the main island, and is still giving out purple
       | hearts printed in anticipation of this invasion")
       | 
       | In the end the historical narrative was that dropping the bombs
       | was necessary to end the war, as written by the winners.
       | 
       | The reality is that we just don't know what would've happened if
       | the US waited. Japan was not an active threat any longer. What
       | was? The Soviet Union that would've certainly "helped" invade
       | Japan, and would've also demanded to carve it up post-war the way
       | they did with Germany.
       | 
       | From evaluating the overall evidence it seems pretty clear that
       | this is what was driving the urgency to drop the bomb, not once,
       | but twice.
       | 
       | The irony is that it's entirely possible that for the population
       | of Japan this ended up a better outcome than having half of it
       | face the "East Germany" scenario for the next 40 years.
       | 
       | And while the "blight" of having actually used nuclear weapons to
       | kill civilians may be on the US forever as the only nation to
       | have done so, the horrors of Hiroshima or Nagasaki almost
       | certainly helped prevent nuclear weapon usage throughout the cold
       | war. If they were never tried, it's almost certain that either
       | the US or the USSR would've been itchy to be the first in some
       | future engagement, and then who knows what would've happened.
       | 
       | So the truth is messy. My position is that the Hiroshima/Nagasaki
       | bombings were NOT necessary to end WW2 and did not reduce the
       | overall bloodshed within THAT conflict. But this action
       | counterintuitively helped improve Japan's prosperity over the
       | rest of the 20th century and may have reduced the likelihood of
       | an actual nuclear war over the rest of the Cold War.
        
       | hereme888 wrote:
       | I think these organizations are too idealistic and out of touch
       | with reality. Nuclear weapons will never go away. Neither will
       | alcohol, drugs, or AI.
       | 
       | Also, those bombs saved a lot of lives. I know many will
       | disagree, but it's true.
        
         | bastawhiz wrote:
         | I don't think that negates the work that these organizations
         | do. The degree to which nuclear weapons are developed and
         | proliferated is not binary.
        
         | parl_match wrote:
         | > Also, those bombs saved a lot of lives. I know many will
         | disagree, but it's true.
         | 
         | This is a hotly, perhaps one of the most hotly contended,
         | modern questions of World War II. To say what you said so
         | blithely betrays your ignorance on the subject.
         | 
         | General modern consensus suggests that the first is up for
         | debate for various reasons, but that the second one really
         | didn't do much to change the Japanese government's course.
         | 
         | Regardless if you disagree with that above statement or not,
         | positioning your uninformed opinion as fact is a bad look.
        
           | historyartifucj wrote:
           | "Modern opinion" is not based on fact. The consensus is that
           | the bombs saved the Allied forces mass casualties because
           | they did.
           | 
           | It is politically motivated historical revisionism to suggest
           | otherwise. Fringe, conspiracy theory historians with an axe
           | to grind blew this theory of of thing air and it took root
           | with anti-American types.
           | 
           | We have the first-party documents from the Japanese High
           | Command to confirm this. Beyond, little known is that rebels
           | in the command structure attempted a last minute coup to
           | prevent the surrender.
           | 
           | Japanese hardliners nearly took over and continued the war in
           | spite of their God-Emperor and his desire to end the
           | slaughter.
        
           | aegypti wrote:
           | A specific strain of 20th century revisionism considers their
           | use questionable in academia, it isn't remotely a consensus
           | (outside JP) and it certainly isn't modern.
        
         | keybored wrote:
         | > I know many will disagree, but it's true.
         | 
         | I know you will disagree, but you are wrong.
        
         | istjohn wrote:
         | Suppose we grant your premise. Indiscriminately massacring
         | entire cities of men, women, and children saved the lives of
         | some soldiers. That's barbaric.
        
       | matthewfelgate wrote:
       | - Liberal democracies should have Nuclear Weapons.       -
       | Dictatorships and Communists countries shouldn't.
        
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