[HN Gopher] BP abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       BP abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy
        
       Author : baanist
       Score  : 44 points
       Date   : 2024-10-08 22:13 UTC (46 minutes ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.reuters.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.reuters.com)
        
       | JohnMakin wrote:
       | > BP (BP.L), opens new tab has abandoned a target to cut oil and
       | gas output by 2030 as CEO Murray Auchincloss scales back the
       | firm's energy transition strategy to regain investor confidence,
       | three sources with knowledge of the matter said.
       | 
       | > The company continues to target net zero emissions by 2050. "As
       | Murray said at the start of year... the direction is the same -
       | but we are going to deliver as a simpler, more focused, and
       | higher value company," a BP spokesperson said.
       | 
       | Bit confused by the discrepancy of these statements. Is this
       | because this is an insider source that has not been officially
       | announced (seems like it), or are they saying "We still plan to
       | cut emissions by 2050... maybe sometime later" (seems less
       | likely).
        
         | tw04 wrote:
         | They're claiming to target 2050 in the hopes that the EU won't
         | come down on them with a sledge hammer.
         | 
         | The fact they've cut all targets for 2030, and cut back all
         | renewable plans tells you there's no actual plan to hit net
         | zero.
         | 
         | This was a pretty obvious end result when the head of their
         | renewables group resigned in April and instead of replacing her
         | they decided to "shrink the executive group" by exactly one
         | headcount.
         | 
         | https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bp-cuts-size-executi...
        
         | freefal67 wrote:
         | My cynical interpretation is that the current CEO needed to
         | begin taking steps to meet this 2030 goal and determined they
         | didn't make financial sense. The 2050 goal is also unrealistic
         | but is his successor's problem.
        
       | schiffern wrote:
       | Pioneering systems theorist Donella Meadows makes a highly
       | salient point. The problem with BP isn't because there are "bad
       | people" at the top, and the solution isn't to replace them with
       | "good people." The problem is that the decision-makers are
       | _constrained to act a certain way_. If they made different
       | decisions then.... those people won 't be the decision-makers
       | anymore! The same is true for politicians, consumers, etc.
       | 
       | It's a systems problem requiring systems solutions, not a problem
       | of (as movies simplistically tell us) "bad people."
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMmChiLZZHg
        
         | fullshark wrote:
         | The libertarians constantly spouting that CEOs have a fiduciary
         | obligation to shareholders are making the best argument for
         | increased government regulation possible.
        
           | jbstack wrote:
           | A reasonable libertarian however would require that all
           | externalities be paid for (under the principle of doing no
           | harm). If the price per unit of oil includes the cost of all
           | the negative externalities (e.g. selling that unit comes with
           | a requirement to remove the air pollutants and CO2) then it
           | isn't really a problem (at least for the purpose of this
           | discussion) if CEOs have to seek profit for shareholders.
        
         | imglorp wrote:
         | That saying that goes, we are the only species that will become
         | extinct because survival wasn't profitable enough.
         | 
         | To the systems point we really, really really, really really
         | need to stop subsidizing fossil fuels to 7 trillion a year
         | globally. We have to stop making it profitable and encouraged
         | by the system.
         | 
         | https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel...
        
           | schiffern wrote:
           | >  we are the only species that will become extinct because
           | survival wasn't profitable enough
           | 
           | This a very good quip, but I have to ponder: _how could we
           | know that for sure?_
           | 
           | If some other species had a comparable concept used to
           | organize themselves, I doubt humans would even be aware of
           | that nuance.
        
             | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
             | Sometimes it's pretty visible. Slime moulds form
             | multicellular bodies when food is scarce and they have to
             | hunt, and then go back to single-celled life when
             | conditions are more favorable.
        
             | saintfire wrote:
             | Single celled organisms do it all the time, on a local
             | scale.
             | 
             | If you fill a jar with some yeast and sugar water, they'll
             | feast and multiply at an accelerating pace until they've
             | turned their environment toxic.
             | 
             | Painfully analagous to humans.
        
             | palata wrote:
             | Well because other species don't manage to break the
             | barriers as efficiently as we do.
             | 
             | The way regulation works is that species are limited by
             | their environment. If there are many antelopes, there can
             | be many lions. But if there are two many lions, the
             | population of antelopes goes down to the point where not
             | all the lions can survive, right? This is simplistic, but
             | that's the idea (the higher the population, the bigger the
             | impact of a disease, etc).
             | 
             | Because we are really good at changing our environment in
             | order to be more individuals who consume more resources, we
             | escape those regulation mechanisms. By doing this, we
             | destroy most species, including ours.
             | 
             | Now let's not pretend that ants would be better: if they
             | somehow escaped those mechanisms, they wouldn't suddenly
             | vote and stop growing (presumably). The fact is that they
             | haven't escaped them, and we have. Well for a while. Now
             | it's very likely that _some kind of mechanism_ will end up
             | regulating us. Maybe it will finish destroying most
             | species, and it will take thousands of years to  "recover"
             | (with some definition of "recover").
             | 
             | What's interesting with us is that we do know we are
             | destroying ourselves and the biodiversity (which is
             | arguably one of the enjoyable things in life), but we can't
             | seem to find a way to fix it.
        
           | cortesoft wrote:
           | I feel like we aren't actually unique in this respect, except
           | in the sense that we are able to see our own doom but still
           | not able to act on it.
           | 
           | In essence, our extinction (if it were to happen) would be
           | because we were unable to solve the collective action
           | problem... each individual choosing their own best course
           | dooms the entire species.
           | 
           | When looked at it this way, lots of species go extinct for
           | this reason; resource exhaustion due to uncapped expansion.
           | 
           | The difference is that we don't expect animals to be able to
           | reason through the situation and realize that individuals
           | would need to sacrifice for the greater good of the species.
        
           | buzzy_hacker wrote:
           | > subsidizing fossil fuels to 7 trillion a year globally
           | 
           | This is misleading. See
           | https://www.slowboring.com/i/145942190/the-case-of-the-
           | myste...
           | 
           | > The vast majority of the "subsidies" are "implicit
           | subsidies," which include "undercharging for environmental
           | costs." In other words, they are characterizing governments'
           | failure to impose a carbon tax as a "subsidy" for fossil fuel
           | use.
        
         | gffrd wrote:
         | A great point.
         | 
         | What examples do we have of publicly-traded megacorps that have
         | successfully made shifts at the scale which we see oil
         | companies trying to make? (With extrinsic motivation being a
         | primary driver?)
         | 
         | Cigarette companies?
        
         | skybrian wrote:
         | The word "required" is not exactly wrong, but not exactly right
         | either. Corporate governance is complicated and CEO's have a
         | lot of room to maneuver. Some more than others.
         | 
         | Incentives are not destiny, though they are often persuasive.
         | Peoples' decisions do matter, which is why there are people in
         | the system and it's not just some idiot algorithm.
         | 
         | Also true of consumers and politicians.
        
       | tw04 wrote:
       | > as investors focused on near-term returns rather than the
       | energy transition.
       | 
       | If the justification for burning the earth to the ground
       | continues to be "investors focused on short term returns" then
       | governments need to start telling companies like BP they are
       | legally and financially responsible for the effects those
       | policies have on insurance rates and everything else.
       | 
       | At some point if they can't do the right thing because it's a
       | sound long term investment strategy, they need to pay the real
       | price of their short term focused strategy.
        
         | cortesoft wrote:
         | The way to do this is to price in the effect of the
         | transactions on global climate. The reason the market will
         | never solve this issue is because the cost is an externality;
         | if we made it so every good sold included the cost to offset
         | the damage to the environment, the market could address this
         | issue.
        
         | wahnfrieden wrote:
         | Govts are in on the spoils of it. There's no reason for govts
         | to attain power over people and use it to lose their own power
         | by destroying their economy.
        
       | linkjuice4all wrote:
       | It's depressing to see companies moving back towards a carbon-
       | burning future. It seemed like electric vehicles, battery
       | technology, and solar power advancement was finally starting to
       | kill the market for ICE engines and 'dirty' thermal power.
       | 
       | Between reversions like this, RTO mandates, and global conflicts
       | that seem to include blowing up oil refineries it seems like
       | there's absolutely no hope or interest from any major
       | governments, businesses, or organizations to do anything to
       | address global warming and climate change or even maintain our
       | carbon outputs.
        
         | jimbob45 wrote:
         | Does it not seem like electric vehicles will eventually swallow
         | the world? It feels like it's 1900 and you're fighting tooth-
         | and-nail to combat horse maltreatment while the rest of the
         | world is surging toward a car-laden future. Would it not make
         | more sense to simply focus efforts on EV adoption?
        
           | bamboozled wrote:
           | I'm not trying to blame this on "Elon" but that guy basically
           | kicked off the revolution and is kind of destroying it. His
           | cult following, toxic views and enthusiasm for conspiracies
           | are starting to make EV ownership something for "weirdos" at
           | a time when owning an EV was already contentious. At least in
           | the US.
           | 
           | There was a time when I dreamed of owning a Tesla, there is
           | absolutely no way I'd drive one now.
           | 
           | I think China is going to steam ahead towards Solar, Nuclear
           | and EVs, so maybe there is hope there!
        
         | bamboozled wrote:
         | It's not just depressing, it's ruinous. We will be ruined as a
         | species from this.
         | 
         | I'm still pressing a head with my personal contribution by
         | cladding our new house in panels!
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | It's the standard cycle of progress. "First they ignore you,
         | then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win".
         | (misattributed to Gandhi).
         | 
         | Moving from one stage to the next is not guaranteed, but EV's,
         | battery & solar and definitely well past the first two stages.
         | I'd argue that solar might even be in column 4 -- China
         | installed 100 GW of it in the first six months of 2024, and the
         | rest of the world a similar amount.
        
         | Spooky23 wrote:
         | Nothing changed. We're literally in an auto market flooded with
         | EVs.
         | 
         | If you're a geek, you probably got hyped up by Elon when he was
         | saving the world with electric cars. Now that he's regressed to
         | his effort to offer himself for impregnation services to
         | repopulate and installing fascist dictatorships, the electric
         | car stuff has gone by the wayside.
        
         | passwordoops wrote:
         | 1-it's not companies, it's nation-states such as China and all
         | across the "developing" world making the economic decision to
         | use the cheapest, most easily accessible and reliable energy
         | source (still fossil). And anyone providing examples of "yes,
         | but..." should include an verifiable explanation as to why GHG
         | emissions are not only increasing but accelerating
         | 
         | 2- Carbon is much more than energy. Take a look at medicine,
         | for example. Remove plastics, the field as we know it stops.
         | Stop the flow of primary feedstock from refineries and no more
         | medicines. Coal is another excellent example. You can replace
         | as many coal plants as you want with renewables, you still need
         | it to make the high-grade steel required to manufacture the
         | renewables. Which is one reason why China is digging up more
         | coal per year than any country ever had since the Industrial
         | Revolution.
        
         | kieranmaine wrote:
         | A counterpoint to your last sentence:
         | 
         | From "Indonesia's coal producers diversify as money for mining
         | dries up" -
         | https://www.ft.com/content/9546f590-2fb0-4939-a090-8bac7ba6a...
         | 
         | "In recent years, foreign banks have largely stopped financing
         | coal operations, with Indonesian companies primarily securing
         | financing from domestic institutions"
        
       | denkmoon wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
         | dang wrote:
         | Maybe so, but please don't post unsubstantive comments to
         | Hacker News.
        
         | saintfire wrote:
         | Crack may have been a poor choice. Many dealers cut crack
         | supplies all the time with other drugs, borax, detergents etc.
        
       | taeric wrote:
       | I'm rather torn on the discourse on this. I can understand
       | disappointment that people are adjusting down on goals. What I
       | don't understand is that this seems rather removed from outcome
       | measures.
       | 
       | Specifically, in this context, they are still reducing output.
       | Just not as aggressively. Do we have reporting on what this means
       | in real impact terms? Last reporting I have seen, the majority of
       | carbon emissions are from locations that we aren't governing.
       | Such that this is akin to yelling at people for not eating all of
       | their food, because someone somewhere is starving.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2024-10-08 23:00 UTC)