[HN Gopher] Bots, so many bots
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Bots, so many bots
        
       Author : welder
       Score  : 244 points
       Date   : 2024-10-01 14:21 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (wakatime.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (wakatime.com)
        
       | bediger4000 wrote:
       | Excellent detective work. The trends for bots vs humans are kind
       | of disturbing in that humans (as detected) seem to be doing fewer
       | votes and leaving fewer comments with time, while bots are doing
       | the opposite. Is this another indication that the Dead Internet
       | Theory is true?
        
         | immibis wrote:
         | Related, a real human on HN is limited to 5 comments per 6
         | hours, while bad actors simply need to create hundreds of
         | accounts to avoid this limit.
        
           | tivert wrote:
           | > Related, a real human on HN is limited to 5 comments per 6
           | hours, while bad actors simply need to create hundreds of
           | accounts to avoid this limit.
           | 
           | I don't think that's true. I think that's an anti-abuse mode
           | some accounts fall into.
        
             | apercu wrote:
             | I have always assumed it's sort of an algorithm that
             | manages this, some combination of account duration,
             | "points", etc..
        
               | tivert wrote:
               | Or just recent activity. I think I've seen it happen to
               | accounts that were digging in their heels and vigorously
               | defending some wrong/incorrect/unpopular point they made
               | upthread. Then all the sudden they're mentioning the post
               | limit and editing posts to reply. I'm guessing it's a
               | combination of high (recent) post volume and down-votes
               | that triggers it.
        
               | unethical_ban wrote:
               | I get the rationale for it. My only gripe with it is that
               | it says "you're posting too fast, wait a few minutes"
               | when I wasn't posting fast, and it blocks account
               | activity for hours. I don't like automated messages that
               | lie.
        
               | immibis wrote:
               | Too fast is more than 5 posts or comments every 6 hours.
               | I think it's a rolling window.
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | It's part of the philosophy of HN. Arguments that are
               | just people repeating the same points back and forth
               | aren't interesting or enlightening.
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | I think there are two things at play here. One is when
               | you're rate limited because dang limited you because
               | you're violating the site guidelines. It's a less drastic
               | step than all your posts showing up as dead.
               | 
               | Second is, the further you are "to the right" in a
               | discussion - the more parents you have to go through to
               | get to a top-level comment - I thing you eventually get
               | to a delay there, just to stop threads from marching off
               | to infinity with two people (who absolutely will not stop
               | and will not agree, or even agree to disagree) going on
               | forever. I'm not sure what the indent level is that
               | triggers this, but I would expect some sort of
               | exponential backoff.
        
             | reaperducer wrote:
             | It's even tougher for some accounts, too.
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | DIT was misnamed... Dead Internet Prophecy would have been a
         | better term, something that hadn't happened yet, but will come
         | true in the future.
        
           | 082349872349872 wrote:
           | It was misnamed because (centralised sites != internet).
           | 
           | Lie down with social media dogs, get up with fleas.
        
       | tomthecreator wrote:
       | I wonder the same about HN. Has anyone done this kind of
       | analysis? Me good LLM
        
         | reaperducer wrote:
         | In the seven years I've been on HN, it has gone through
         | different phases, each with a noticeable change in the quality
         | of the comments.
         | 
         | One big shift came at the beginning of COVID, when everyone
         | went work-from home. Another came when Elon Musk bought X.
         | There have been one or two other events I've noticed, but those
         | are the ones I can recall now. For a short while, many of the
         | comments were from low-grade Russian and Chinese trolls, but
         | almost all of those are long gone. I don't know if it was a
         | technical change at HN, or a strategy change externally.
         | 
         | I don't know if it's internal or external or just fed by
         | internet trends, but while it is resistant, HN is certainly not
         | immune from the ills affecting the rest of the internet.
        
           | diggan wrote:
           | How are you so sure these users are actually bots? Just
           | because someone disagrees with you about Russia or China
           | doesn't mean that's evidence of a bot, no matter how stupid
           | their opinion is.
        
             | JohnMakin wrote:
             | Anyone who's spent any amount of time in this space can
             | spot them pretty quickly/easily. They tend to stick to
             | certain scripts and themes and almost never deviate.
        
               | yodon wrote:
               | Ten years ago those accounts existed, too. Back then we
               | called them "people."
        
               | JohnMakin wrote:
               | Not at all - ten years ago russian misinformation
               | campaigns on twitter and meta platforms were alive and
               | well. There was an entire several hundred page report
               | about it, even.
        
               | diggan wrote:
               | How is that different from humans? Humans have
               | themes/areas they care more about, and are more likely to
               | discuss with others. It's not hard to imagine there are
               | Russians/Chinese people caring deeply about their
               | country, just like there are Americans who care deeply
               | about US.
        
               | JohnMakin wrote:
               | C'mon. When you have an account that is less than a year
               | old and has 542 posts, 541 of which are repeating very
               | specific kremlin narratives verbatim, it isn't difficult
               | to make a guess. Is your contention that they are
               | actually difficult to spot, or that they don't exist at
               | all? because both of those views are hilariously false.
        
               | diggan wrote:
               | I feel like you're speaking about specific accounts here,
               | since it's so obvious and exact. Care to share the HN
               | accounts you're thinking about here?
               | 
               | My contention is that people jump to "It's just a bot"
               | when they parrot obvious government propaganda they
               | disagree with, when the average person is as likely to
               | parrot obvious propaganda without involving computers at
               | all.
               | 
               | People are just generally stupid by themselves, and
               | reducing it to "Robots be robotting" doesn't feel very
               | helpful when there is an actual problem to address.
        
               | JohnMakin wrote:
               | No, I'm not. And I don't/won't post any specific
               | accounts. I'm speaking more generally - and no one is
               | jumping to anything here, you're projecting an argument
               | that absolutely no one is making. The original claim was
               | that russian/chinese bots were on this platform and left.
               | I've only been here about 1.5 years, so I don't know the
               | validity of that claim, but I have a fair amount of
               | experience and research in the last ten years or so on
               | the topic of foreign misinformation campaigns on the web,
               | so it sounds like a very valid claim, given how
               | proliferate these campaigns were across the entire web.
               | 
               | It isn't an entirely new concept or unknown, and that
               | isn't what is happening here. You're making a lot of
               | weird assumptions, especially given the fact that the US
               | government wrote several hundred pages about this exact
               | topic years ago.
        
               | diggan wrote:
               | > and no one is jumping to anything here, you're
               | projecting an argument that absolutely no one is making
               | 
               | You literally claimed "when you have accounts with these
               | stats, and they say these specific things, it isn't
               | difficult to guess..." which ends with "that they're
               | bots" I'm guessing. Read around in this very submission
               | for more examples of people doing "the jump".
               | 
               | I'm not saying there isn't any "foreign misinformation
               | campaigns on the web", so not sure who is projecting
               | here.
        
               | dcminter wrote:
               | A human aggressively taking a particular line and a bot
               | doing so may be equivalent; do we need to differentiate
               | there?
        
               | diggan wrote:
               | If the comment is off-topic/breaking the
               | guidelines/rules, it should be removed, full stop.
               | 
               | The difference is that the bots comment should be removed
               | regardless if the particular comment is breaking the
               | rules or not, as HN specifically is a forum for humans.
               | The humans comment, granted it doesn't break the rules,
               | shouldn't, no matter how shitty their opinion/view is.
        
               | dcminter wrote:
               | If posts make HN a less interesting place to converse I
               | don't see why humans should get a pass & I don't see
               | anything in the guidelines to support that view either.
        
               | dang wrote:
               | In my experience, that's not true. Rather, people are
               | much too quick to jump to the conclusion that so-and-so
               | is a bot (or a troll, a shill, a foreign agent, etc.),
               | when the other's views are outside the range of what
               | feels normal to them.
               | 
               | I've written a lot of about this dynamic because it's so
               | fundamental. Here are some of the longer posts (mini
               | essays really):
               | 
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39158911 (Jan 2024)
               | 
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35932851 (May 2023)
               | 
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27398725 (June 2021)
               | 
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23308098 (May 2020)
               | 
               | Since HN has many users with different backgrounds from
               | all over the world, it has a lot of user pairs (A, B)
               | where A's views don't seem normal to B and vice versa.
               | This is why we have the following rule, which has held up
               | well over the years:
               | 
               | " _Please don 't post insinuations about astroturfing,
               | shilling, bots, brigading, foreign agents and the like.
               | It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're
               | worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll
               | look at the data._" -
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
               | JohnMakin wrote:
               | In my research and experience, it is. I'm making no
               | comment about bots/shills on this site, either, I'm
               | responding to the plausibility of the original comment.
        
               | diggan wrote:
               | > I'm making no comment about bots/shills on this site,
               | either, I'm responding to the plausibility of the
               | original comment.
               | 
               | The original comment:
               | 
               | > I wonder the same about HN. Has anyone done this kind
               | of analysis? Me good LLM
               | 
               | Slightly disingenuous to argue from the standpoint of
               | "I'm talking about the whole internet" when this thread
               | is specifically about HN. But whatever floats your boat.
        
               | imiric wrote:
               | Hey, I would appreciate if you could address some of my
               | questions here[1].
               | 
               | I do think it's unrealistic to believe that there is
               | absolutely zero bot activity, so at least some of those
               | accusations might be true.
               | 
               | [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41711060
        
               | dang wrote:
               | The claim is not "zero bot activity" - how would one even
               | begin to support that?
               | 
               | Rather, the claim is that accusations about other users
               | being bots/shills/etc. overwhelmingly turn out, when
               | investigated, to have zero evidence in favor of them. And
               | I do mean overwhelmingly. That is perhaps the single most
               | consistent phenomenon we've observed on HN, and it has
               | strong implications.
               | 
               | If you want further explanation of how we approach these
               | issues, the links in my GP comment
               | (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41710142) go into
               | it in depth. If you read those and still have a question
               | that isn't answered there, I can take a crack at it.
               | Since you ask (in your other comment) whether HN has any
               | protections against this kind of thing at all, I think
               | you should look at those past explanations--for example
               | the first paragraph of
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27398725.
        
               | imiric wrote:
               | Alright, thanks. I read your explanations and they do
               | answer some of my questions.
               | 
               | I'm still surprised that the percentage of this activity
               | here is so low, below 0.1%, as you say. Given that the
               | modern internet is flooded by bots--over 60% in the case
               | of ProductHunt as estimated by the article, and a third
               | of global internet traffic[1]--how do you a) know that
               | you're detecting all of them accurately (given that it
               | seems like a manual process that takes a lot of effort),
               | and b) explain that it's so low here compared to most
               | other places?
               | 
               | [1]: https://investors.fastly.com/news/news-
               | details/2024/New-Fast...
        
               | intended wrote:
               | From what I understand - users accuse others of being
               | shills and bots, and are a largely wrong.
               | 
               | Dang and team use other tools to remove the actual bots
               | that they can find evidence for.
               | 
               | So yes, there are bots, but human reports, tend to be
               | more about disagreements, than actual bot identification.
        
               | dang wrote:
               | intended's reply is correct.
               | 
               | Most of the bot activity we know about on HN has to do
               | with voting rings and things like that, people trying to
               | promote their commercial content. To the extent that they
               | post things, it's mostly low-quality stuff that either
               | gets killed by software, flagged by users, or eventually
               | reported to us.
               | 
               | When it comes to political, ideological, nationalistic
               | arguments and the like, that's where we see little (if
               | any) evidence. Those are the areas where users are most
               | likely to accuse each other of not being human, or
               | posting in bad faith, etc., so that's what I've written
               | about in the posts that I linked to.
               | 
               | There's still always the possibility that some bad actors
               | are running campaigns too sophisitcated for us to detect
               | and crack down on. I call this the Sufficiently Smart
               | Manipulator problem and you can find past takes on it
               | here: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix
               | =true&que....
               | 
               | I can't say whether or not this exists (that follows by
               | definition--"sufficiently" means smart enough to evade
               | detection). All I can tell you is that in specific cases
               | people ask us to look into, there are usually obvious
               | reasons not to believe this interpretation. For example
               | would a sufficiently smart manipulator be smart enough to
               | have been posting about Julia macros back in 2017, or the
               | equivalent? You can always make a case for "yes" but
               | those cases end up having to stretch pretty thin.
        
               | imiric wrote:
               | Thank you. I appreciate your positive outlook on these
               | things. It helps counteract my negative one. :)
               | 
               | For example, when you say "The answer to the Sufficiently
               | Smart Manipulator is the Sufficiently Healthy Community",
               | that sounds reasonable, but I see a few issues with it.
               | 
               | 1. These individuals are undetectable by definition. They
               | can infiltrate communities and direct conversations and
               | opinions without raising any alarms. Sometimes these are
               | long-term operations that take years, and involve
               | building trust and relationships. For all intents and
               | purposes, they may seem like just another member of the
               | community, which they partly are. But they have an agenda
               | that masquerades as strong opinions, and are protected by
               | tolerance and inclusivity, i.e. the paradox of tolerance.
               | 
               | 2. Because they're difficult to detect, they can easily
               | overrun the community. What happens when they're a
               | substantial percentage of it? The line between fact and
               | fiction becomes blurry, and it's not possible to
               | counteract bad arguments with better ones, simply because
               | they become a matter of opinion. Ultimately those who
               | shout harder, in larger numbers, and are in a better
               | position to, get heard the most.
               | 
               | These are not some conspiracy theories. Psyops and
               | propaganda are very real and happen all around us in ways
               | we often can't detect. We can only see the effects like
               | increased polarization and confusion, but are not able to
               | trace these back to the source.
               | 
               | Moreover, with the recent advent of AI, how long until
               | these operations are fully autonomous? What if they
               | already are? Bots can be deployed by the thousands, and
               | their capabilities improve every day.
               | 
               | So I'm not sure that a Sufficiently Healthy Community
               | alone has a chance of counteracting this. I don't have
               | the answer either, but can't help but see this trend in
               | most online communities. Can we do a better job at
               | detection? What does that even look like?
        
             | iterateoften wrote:
             | Hackernews isn't the place to bring that up regardless of
             | your opinion. So out of context political posts should be
             | viewed with at least some scrutiny.
        
               | diggan wrote:
               | This I agree with, off-topic is off-topic and should be
               | removed/flagged. But I'm guessing we're not talking about
               | simple rule/guidelines-breaking here.
        
               | imiric wrote:
               | That's true, but maybe there should be a meta section of
               | the site where these topics can be openly discussed?
               | 
               | While I appreciate dang's perspective[1], and agree that
               | most of these are baseless accusations, I also think that
               | it's inevitable that a site with seemingly zero bot-
               | mitigation techniques, where accounts and comments can be
               | easily automated, doesn't have some or, I would wager _a
               | lot_, of bot activity.
               | 
               | I would definitely appreciate some transparency here.
               | E.g. are there any automated or manual bot detection and
               | prevention techniques in place? If so, can these accounts
               | and their comments be flagged as such?
               | 
               | [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41710142
        
               | dang wrote:
               | We're not going to have a meta section for reasons I've
               | explained in the past:
               | 
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22649383 (March
               | 2020)
               | 
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24902628 (Oct 2020)
               | 
               | I've responded to your other point here:
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41713361
        
               | intended wrote:
               | There are a few horsemen of the online community
               | apocalypse,
               | 
               | 1) Politics 2) Religion 3) Meta
               | 
               | Fundamentally - Productive discussion is problem solving.
               | A high signal to noise ratio community is almost always
               | boring, see r/Badeconomics for example.
               | 
               | Politics, religion are low barrier to entry topics, and
               | always result in flame wars, that then proceed to drag
               | all other behavior down.
               | 
               | Meta is similar: To have a high signal community, with a
               | large user base, you filter out thousands of accounts and
               | comments, regularly. Meta spaces inevitably become the
               | gathering point for these accounts and users, and their
               | sheer volume ends up making public refutations and
               | evidence sharing impossible.
               | 
               | As a result, meta becomes impossible to engage with at
               | the level it was envisioned.
               | 
               | In my experience, all meta areas become staging grounds
               | to target or harass moderation. HN is unique in the level
               | of communication from Dang.
        
             | metalliqaz wrote:
             | I don't know about anyone else, but to me a lot of bot
             | traffic is very obvious. I don't have the expertise to be
             | able to describe the feeling that low quality bot text
             | gives me, but it sticks out like a sore thumb. It's too
             | verbose, not specific enough to the discussion, and so on.
             | 
             | I'm sure there are real pros who sneak automated propaganda
             | in front of my eyes with my notice, but then again I
             | probably just think they are human trolls.
        
               | diggan wrote:
               | > but it sticks out like a sore thumb
               | 
               | Could you give some examples of HN comments that "sticks
               | out like a sore thumb"?
               | 
               | > It's too verbose, not specific enough to the
               | discussion, and so on.
               | 
               | That to me just sounds like the average person who feels
               | deeply about something, but isn't used to productive
               | arguments/debates. I come across this frequently on HN,
               | Twitter and everywhere else, including real life where I
               | know for a fact the person I'm speaking to is not a robot
               | (I'm 99% sure at least).
        
               | metalliqaz wrote:
               | sorry, I didn't mean to give the impression that I was
               | talking about HN comments specifically. I was talking
               | about spotting bot content out on the open Internet.
               | 
               | as for verbosity, I don't mean simply using a lot of
               | text, but rather using a lot of superfluous words
               | sentences.
               | 
               | people tend not to write in comments the way they would
               | in an article.
        
             | simion314 wrote:
             | [flagged]
        
               | diggan wrote:
               | > If the account is new and promoting Ruzzian narrative
               | by denying the reality I can be 99% sure it is a paid
               | person copy pasting arguments from a KGB manual, 1% is a
               | home sovieticus with some free time.
               | 
               | I'm not as certain as you about that. Last time the US
               | had a presidential election, it seems like almost half
               | the country is either absolutely bananas and out of their
               | mind, or half the country are robots.
               | 
               | But reality turns out to be less exciting in reality.
               | People are just dumb, and spew whatever propaganda they
               | happen to come across "at the right time". Same is true
               | for Russians as it is for Americans.
        
               | consteval wrote:
               | I think it's mostly a timing thing. It's one thing for
               | someone to say something dumb, but it's another for
               | someone to say it immediately on a new account. That, to
               | me, screams bot behavior. Also if they have a laser
               | focus. Like if I open a twitter account and every single
               | tweet is some closely related propaganda point.
        
               | simion314 wrote:
               | [flagged]
        
               | dang wrote:
               | Nationalistic flamewar will get you banned here,
               | regardless* of which country you have a problem with. No
               | more of this, please.
               | 
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
               | 
               | * https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=tru
               | e&que...
        
               | simion314 wrote:
               | Will I be allowed to say just provide some links instead
               | and let the community inform themselves if I am not
               | allowed to share my observations? Or links to real news
               | events are also not allowed.
        
             | reaperducer wrote:
             | _How are you so sure these users are actually bots?_
             | 
             | I stated nothing about bots. Re-read what I wrote.
        
               | diggan wrote:
               | Bots, trolls, foreign agents, a dear child has many
               | names. Point is the same, name calling without evidence
               | does nothing to solve the problem.
        
           | SoftTalker wrote:
           | HN has mechanisms to detect upvotes and comments that seem to
           | be promoting a product or coordinated in some other way. I'm
           | not sure what they do behind the scenes or how effective it
           | is but it's something. Also other readers downvote bot spam.
           | Obvious bot/LLM-generated comments seem to be "dead" quite
           | often, as are posts that are clearly just content/ad farm
           | links or product promotions or way off-topic.
        
           | jperras wrote:
           | 16 year HN vet here.
           | 
           | This place has both changed a _lot_ and also very little,
           | depending on which axis you want to analyze. One thing that
           | has been pretty consistent, however, is the rather minimal
           | amount of trolls/bots. There are some surges from time to
           | time, but they really don't last that long.
        
         | datadrivenangel wrote:
         | HN remains good primarily because of the moderators. Thanks
         | Dang!
        
           | wickedsight wrote:
           | Agreed. There's some Dang good work being done here. Hope he
           | gets rewarded well for it.
        
           | bediger4000 wrote:
           | Wait you mean absolute freedom of speech, countering bad
           | speech with more good speech doesn't work?
        
           | imiric wrote:
           | The mods certainly do a great job of keeping things running
           | smoothly here, but I wouldn't say it's _primarily_ because of
           | them.
           | 
           | I think it's primarily due to the self-moderation of the
           | community itself, who flag and downvote posts, follow the
           | community guidelines, and are still overall relatively civil
           | compared to other places.
           | 
           | That said, any community can be overrun by an Eternal
           | September event, at which point no moderation or community
           | guidelines can save it. Some veteran members would argue that
           | it's already happened here. I would say we've just been lucky
           | so far that it hasn't. The brutalist UI likely plays a part
           | in that. :)
        
             | conductr wrote:
             | I think it has happened actually. Early on HN was almost
             | purely entrepreneurial although through a tech POV. These
             | days, it's much more general or broadly tech related. The
             | discussion I gather is most people here are tech employees
             | and not necessarily entrepreneurs.
             | 
             | It's obviously has not gone to hell like the bot ridden
             | examples, but it's drastically different IMO.
        
               | ffsm8 wrote:
               | The bots aren't completely dominating here _yet_ ,
               | because the price/benefit isn't really there yet.
               | 
               | Twitter is a source of news for some journalists of
               | varying quality, which gives them a motivation to
               | influence.
               | 
               | On HN, who are you going to convince and what for?
               | 
               | The only thing that would come to mind would be to
               | convince venture capital to invest in your upstart, but
               | you'd have to keep it up while convincing the owners of
               | the platform that you're not faking it - which is gonna
               | be extra hard as they have all usage data available,
               | making it significantly harder to fly under the radar.
               | 
               | Honestly, I just don't see the cost/benefit of spamming
               | HN to change until it gets a lot cheaper so that mentally
               | ill ppl get it into their head that they want to "win" a
               | discussion by drowning out everything else
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | >On HN, who are you going to convince and what for?
               | 
               | Eh, following individuals and giving them targeted
               | attacks may well be worth it. There are plenty of tech
               | purchasing managers here that are responsible for
               | hundreds of thousands/millions in product buys. If you
               | can follow their accounts and catch posts where they are
               | interested in some particular technology it's possible
               | you could bid out a reply to it and give a favorable
               | 'native review' for some particular product.
        
               | imiric wrote:
               | > On HN, who are you going to convince and what for?
               | 
               | There are plenty of things bots would be useful for here,
               | just as they are on any discussion forum. Mainly,
               | whenever someone wants to steer the discussion away from
               | or towards a certain topic. This could be useful to
               | protect against bad PR, to silence or censor certain
               | topics from the outside by muddying up the discussion, or
               | to influence the general mindset of the community. Many
               | people trust comments that seem to come from an expert,
               | so pretending to be one, or hijacking the account of one,
               | gets your point across much more easily.
               | 
               | I wouldn't be so sure that bots aren't already dominating
               | here. It's just that it's frowned upon to discuss such
               | things in the comments section, and we don't really have
               | a way of verifying it in any case.
        
               | 0cf8612b2e1e wrote:
               | Plenty of early stage startups who would love to
               | discretely shrill their tool. Even better, bad mouth the
               | competition.
        
             | Loughla wrote:
             | This feels like a chat got response.
             | 
             | Restatement of op's point. Small reason of agreement based
             | on widely public information. Last paragraph indicating the
             | future cannot be predicted and couching the entire thing in
             | terms of a guess or self-contradiction.
             | 
             | This is how chatgpt responds to generic asks about things.
        
           | aio2 wrote:
           | daddy dang to the rescue
        
         | yodon wrote:
         | Real question for those convinced HN is awash in HN bots: What
         | actual value do you believe there is, other than curiosity,
         | that is driving people to build the HN spam bots you think
         | you're seeing?
         | 
         | Karma doesn't help your posts rank higher.
         | 
         | There is no concept of "friends" or "network."
         | 
         | Karma doesn't bring any other value to your account.
         | 
         | My personal read is it's just a small steady influx of clueless
         | folks coming over from Reddit and thinking what works there
         | will work here, but I'm interested in your thoughts.
        
           | hashmap wrote:
           | Karma is a number that can go up. Numbers going up is a
           | supernormal stimulus for humans.
        
             | criddell wrote:
             | They should get rid of the number and change it to be only
             | "low" or "high".
        
               | diggan wrote:
               | Get rid of karma + get rid of ranking comments at all.
               | Just render them in a tree-format with oldest/newest
               | first, everyone has equal footing :)
        
             | vunderba wrote:
             | True but at least for Hacker News you have to at least
             | click through to the member profile to see how many banana
             | stickers and external validation they've accrued.
        
           | jppope wrote:
           | In theory you could Show HN and have your bots upvote it...
           | that would indeed be good marketing.
        
             | diggan wrote:
             | Vote-rings are trivial to detect though, automated or
             | manual. I'd be surprised if HN hasn't figured out ways
             | against it during the time it's been online.
        
           | BobbyJo wrote:
           | Social media accounts with high engagement, and a long life,
           | have monetary value. This is true of most social media
           | platforms.
           | 
           | HN generally does a good job of minimizing the value of
           | accounts, thus discouraging these kinds of games, but I
           | imagine it still happens.
        
             | Narhem wrote:
             | The type of engagement and audience arguably matters more.
        
           | zoeysmithe wrote:
           | To promote political views and startups and scams, and other
           | things that benefit the bot operators.
           | 
           | This is a small but highly influential forum and absolutely
           | is gamed. Game theory dictates it will be.
        
           | lompad wrote:
           | Hype. HN is _the_ platform to create hype among the early
           | adopter, super-spreader/tech exec kind of people and because
           | of that has an absolutely massive indirect reach.
           | 
           | Just look how often PR reps appear here to reply to
           | accusations - they wouldn't bother at all if this was just
           | some random platform like reddit.
        
             | DowagerDave wrote:
             | maybe 10 years ago, but this is not the case today.
        
             | panarky wrote:
             | I'm not convinced HN is awash in bots, but there are
             | certainly some inauthentic accounts here.
             | 
             | What if you want to change public opinion about $evilcorp
             | or $evilleader or $evilpolicy? You could explain to people
             | who love contrarian narratives how $evilcorp, $evilleader
             | and $evilpolicy are actually not as bad as mainstreamers
             | believe, and how their competitors and alternatives are
             | actually more evil than most people understand.
             | 
             | HN is an inexpensive and mostly frictionless way to run an
             | inception campaign on people who are generally better
             | connected and respected than the typical blue check on X.
             | 
             | Their objective probably isn't to accumulate karma because
             | karma is mostly worthless.
             | 
             | They really only need enough karma to flag posts contrary
             | to their interests. Even if the flagged posts aren't
             | flagged to death, it doesn't take much to downrank them off
             | the front page.
        
             | duckmysick wrote:
             | I've hardly seen here any proselytizers from Oracle,
             | Salesforce, IBM and they are dong just fine. Ditto for
             | Amazon/Google/Microsoft/Facebook - they used to be
             | represented more here, but their exodus hardly made any
             | difference.
             | 
             | Gartner has more influence on tech than Hacker News.
        
           | bediger4000 wrote:
           | If you turn on show dead, you'll see that some accounts just
           | post spam or weird BS that ends up instantly dead. I think
           | Evon LaTrail is gone now, but for years posted one or more
           | links to his/her/their YouTube videos about personal
           | sanitation and abortion per day.
           | 
           | There is a stream of clueless folks, but there are also
           | hardcore psychos like LaTrail. The Svelte magazine spammer
           | fits in this category.
        
             | vunderba wrote:
             | I've definitely seen comments that feel very authentically
             | posted (not LLM generated) but are a weird mixture of
             | vitriol and spite, and when you list other comments from
             | that user it's 90% marked dead.
             | 
             | I often wonder if the user is even aware that they're just
             | screaming into the void.
        
           | cryptonector wrote:
           | > What actual value do you believe there is, other than
           | curiosity, that is driving people to build the HN spam bots
           | you think you're seeing?
           | 
           | Testing.
           | 
           | And as siblings say, karma is more valuable than you might
           | think. If you can herd a bunch of karma via botting, you can
           | then [maybe] use that karma to influence all sorts of things.
        
             | yodon wrote:
             | > If you can herd a bunch of karma via botting, you can
             | then [maybe] use that karma to influence all sorts of
             | things.
             | 
             | How? Karma on HN is not like Karma elsewhere. The idea of
             | [maybe] monetizing HN Karma reads like the old southpark
             | underpants gnome meme[0].
             | 
             | [0]https://imgflip.com/memetemplate/49245705/Underpants-
             | Gnomes
        
               | cryptonector wrote:
               | Assuming karma helps you get posts on the front page
               | (does it?) then karma helps spam.
               | 
               | At any rate, HN attracts trolls. I'm sure it will also
               | attract trolls who use AI to increase their rate of
               | trolling.
        
               | yodon wrote:
               | >Assuming karma helps you get posts on the front page
               | (does it?)
               | 
               | No, karma does not help you get posts on the front page.
        
         | vunderba wrote:
         | I'd like to think we have enough of a proactive community to
         | mitigate this issue for the most part - just set your profile
         | back to Show Dead / etc. if you want to see the amount of chaff
         | that gets discarded.
         | 
         | Also, wasn't the initial goal of lobste.rs to be a sort of even
         | more "mensa card carrying members only" exclusive version of
         | Hacker News?
        
       | dom96 wrote:
       | I expect that nowadays many online are speaking with GenAI
       | without even realising it.
       | 
       | It's already been bad enough that you may be unknowingly
       | conversing with the same person pretending to be someone else via
       | multiple accounts. But GenAI is crossing the line in making it
       | really cheap for narratives to be influenced by just building
       | bots. This is a problem for all social networks and I think the
       | only way forward is to enforce validation of humanity.
       | 
       | I'm currently building a social network that only allows
       | upvote/downvote and comments from real humans.
        
         | VyseofArcadia wrote:
         | Good bot (/s)
         | 
         | I don't know that "real humans" is good enough. You can do
         | plenty of manipulation on social networks by hiring lots of
         | real humans to upvote/downvote/post what you want. It's not
         | even expensive.
        
           | dom96 wrote:
           | Yeah. But the cost is significantly higher than ramping up
           | GenAI to make you thousands of accounts.
           | 
           | There is no fool proof solution to this. But perfect is the
           | enemy of the good. Right now social media is pretty far from
           | being "good".
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | >I'm currently building a social network that only allows
         | upvote/downvote and comments from real humans.
         | 
         | And how exactly do you do that? At the end of the day there is
         | no such thing as a comment/vote from a real human, it's all
         | mediated by digital devices. At the point the signal is
         | digitized a bot can take over the process.
        
           | dom96 wrote:
           | By validating each account with a passport and ensuring that
           | only one account per passport is allowed.
        
             | lobsterthief wrote:
             | What about people who buy stolen passports on the dark web?
             | Or passport details that get leaked in data breaches
        
               | unethical_ban wrote:
               | We need a German to chime in with whatever word describes
               | this scenario, when someone suggests an action is not
               | worth doing because of corner cases or inability to
               | perfectly execute a process.
               | 
               | In this hypothetical, let's say we'd tackle the dark web
               | passport market issue when we get there.
        
               | dom96 wrote:
               | hehe yeah, it's funny how many are focusing on the small
               | edge case that makes a certain solution not 100% perfect.
               | 
               | There is also another issue: people can have more than
               | one passport if they're dual citizens. But you know
               | what... I think that's fine.
        
               | mike_hearn wrote:
               | Passports have digitally signed certificates in them,
               | readable by any device with an NFC radio. It's easy
               | enough to extract that data with a mobile app, and now
               | you have an unforgeable file that can be hashed. Of
               | course whether users will bother to sign up for something
               | like a social network if they have to go rummage around
               | and find a passport, install a mobile app etc, I don't
               | know. But it's technically possible and I've proposed
               | such a scheme years ago. For bonus points do the hashing
               | inside a secure enclave so the ePassport data is never
               | upload to a remote server in the clear.
        
             | metalliqaz wrote:
             | who is going to upload their passport to use social media?
        
               | dom96 wrote:
               | People already upload their passport for lots of things,
               | why not social media?
        
               | metalliqaz wrote:
               | > People already upload their passport for lots of things
               | 
               | I sure don't.
               | 
               | > why not social media?
               | 
               | privacy?
        
               | dom96 wrote:
               | For me, sacrificing some privacy is worth it to be in a
               | community with users who I know are real people. If
               | that's not something that is important to you then that's
               | fine.
               | 
               | In my case, right now it's very easy for you to figure
               | out my real name by just googling my nickname.
               | Registering on a website like the one I am implementing
               | won't sacrifice much more of my privacy.
        
             | kjkjadksj wrote:
             | Why would I ever give my passport to your website or anyone
             | elses?
        
               | dom96 wrote:
               | Because it enables you to be a part of a social media
               | that is guaranteed to be majority human-centred. Why
               | wouldn't you give your passport to a website? Don't you
               | already do so for crypto or other banking?
        
             | SoftTalker wrote:
             | Aside from the practical and technical problems you're
             | greatly limiting your audience. Most people who don't
             | travel internationally don't have a passport. In Europe
             | this might be a smaller number but in the USA and Canada I
             | would guess this is a majority of people. Non-citizens
             | won't have a passport. Most young adults will not have one.
             | Many older people will have let theirs expire.
        
               | dom96 wrote:
               | Yeah, that's the challenge. My bet is that there are
               | enough people out there with passports to make an
               | interesting social network.
               | 
               | Of course, getting someone to share their passport will
               | be another filter. But I hope that I can convince people
               | that the benefits are worth it (and that I will be able
               | to keep their data safe, by only storing hashes of
               | everything).
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | Ok, so you get some critical amount of 'humans' to share
               | "a" passport. Now you've built an expensive and high
               | quality lead finder for scammers/spammers. You've
               | increased the value floor for people submitting fake
               | passports. Also, how are you paying for verification of
               | the passports?, VC money to get from the loss phase to
               | the making enough to support itself on ads? How are you
               | dealing with government data requests, especially in the
               | case where said data can be attributed to a real human?.
               | 
               | Maybe I'm wrong, but just a social network of 'real
               | people' doesn't seem like enough in itself. What is going
               | to bring people there with the restrictions and potential
               | risks you're creating.
        
               | dom96 wrote:
               | You could very well be right. I'm willing to give it a
               | shot and see.
               | 
               | All I can say is that I personally see huge value in a
               | social network for real people. Personally I am sick of
               | arguing with what are likely legions of duplicate
               | accounts/bots/russian trolls online. I want some
               | reassurance that I'm not wasting my time and am actually
               | reaching real humans in my interactions online.
               | 
               | Success to me is 1000 MAU. There are companies out there
               | that do passport verification for a reasonable fee with a
               | fair amount of free verifications to start with (which
               | will handle 1000 MAU just fine). If the number of users
               | wishing to take part is significantly higher then I will
               | explore either ads or charging a small fee during
               | registration.
               | 
               | I'm still very far from needing to cross that bridge
               | though. Same for some of the other questions you've
               | raised. I'd have to do a lot more research to come to a
               | solid stance of what to do when government data requests
               | come in. But I would guess that there isn't much choice
               | but to abide by the request. If you want true anonymity
               | from the government then this place will not be for you
               | (but then I'd say not many social networks are for you in
               | that case)
        
               | ddtaylor wrote:
               | I see a lot of value in a network where I can be
               | confident I am talking to real people.
               | 
               | As a user I can't do anything related to the passport
               | stuff and I know many people who likewise wouldn't be
               | interested in doing that, because we live in the states.
               | A more "normal" approach here would be to use one of the
               | government ID verification systems for your state ID.
               | Most of us are willing to expose that information, since
               | it's what you show when you go to the store to prove your
               | age/identity.
        
             | cynicalpeace wrote:
             | No passport, but perhaps face picture that is also encoded
             | with on device verifiable token.
             | 
             | I think there is actually a use case for blockchain (don't
             | pile on!) for this. I have a vague idea of a unique token
             | that goes on every camera and can be verified from the
             | blockchain. If a picture has the token you know it's
             | real... like i said, it's vague idea but i think it's
             | coming
        
               | dom96 wrote:
               | No need for blockchain. All you need is this:
               | https://contentauthenticity.org/.
               | 
               | The problem with this is that it's still easy to forge.
               | 
               | I'll certainly consider playing with ways to identify
               | human uniqueness that don't require passports. But
               | passports are the most obvious route to doing so.
        
               | cynicalpeace wrote:
               | Seems like it's sorta what I'm talking about? Hard to
               | judge because they need to work on their communication
               | skills. It reads like techno-corpo-babble and I'm a
               | professional software engineer.
        
             | n_ary wrote:
             | How do I know that, you will handle my passport data with
             | care? Banks I can trust(despite numerous leaks), you as a
             | random social media or online service with zero regulation,
             | I won't. Plus this opens up immense ways to sue you for
             | collecting unnecessary data and personal information,
             | unless you are massive and have an army or lawyer or have a
             | KYC requirement.
        
               | dom96 wrote:
               | I plan to outline exactly what data I store. I don't plan
               | to store raw passport number/name details, rather a hash
               | so I can verify the same passport isn't used twice.
               | 
               | So even if the DB leaks no one (except the government)
               | will be able to tie your real life identity to the
               | account.
        
             | gregw134 wrote:
             | Why not require a non-voip phone number instead of
             | passport?
        
               | dom96 wrote:
               | SIM cards are as cheap as PS1 where I live. PS1 per
               | account is nothing and I wouldn't be surprised if there
               | are ways to get unique numbers for even less.
        
         | wavemode wrote:
         | I agree with the other commenters that you'll face a lot of
         | challenges, but personally I hope you succeed. Sounds like an
         | idea worth pursuing.
        
           | dom96 wrote:
           | Thank you :)
        
       | tomalaci wrote:
       | This is pretty much progress on dead internet theory. The only
       | thing I think that can stop this and ensure genuine interaction
       | is with strong, trusted identity that has consequences if
       | abused/misused.
       | 
       | This trusted identity should be something governments need to
       | implement. So far big tech companies still haven't fixed it and I
       | question if it is in their interests to fix it. For example, what
       | happens if Google cracks down hard on this and suddenly 60-80% of
       | YouTube traffic (or even ad-traffic) evaporates because it was
       | done by bots? It would wipe out their revenue.
        
         | joseda-hg wrote:
         | This still breaks some parts of the internet, where you
         | wouldn't want to associate your identity with your thoughts or
         | image
        
           | cryptonector wrote:
           | Think attribute certificates.
        
             | AnthonyMouse wrote:
             | There are only two real ways to implement that. One is the
             | "attribute certificate" is still tied to your full identity
             | and then people won't be willing to associate them. The
             | other is that the attribute certificates are fully generic
             | (e.g. everyone over 18 gets the same one) and then someone
             | will post it on the internet and, because there is no way
             | to tie it back to a specific person, there is no way to
             | stop them and it makes the system pointless.
        
         | brookst wrote:
         | > It would wipe out their revenue.
         | 
         | Disagree. YouTube's revenue comes from large advertisers who
         | can measure real impact of ads. If you wiped out all of the
         | bots, the actual user actions ("sign up" / "buy") would remain
         | about the same. Advertisers will happily pay the same amount of
         | money to get 20% of the traffic and 100% of the sales. In fact,
         | they'd likely pay more because then they could reduce
         | investment in detecting bots.
         | 
         | Bots don't generate revenue, and the marketplace is somewhat
         | efficient.
        
           | Veuxdo wrote:
           | > In fact, they'd likely pay more because then they could
           | reduce investment in detecting bots.
           | 
           | A lot more. Preventing bots from eating up your entire
           | digital advertising budget takes a lot of time and money.
        
             | speed_spread wrote:
             | Making advertising more efficient would also open up
             | opportunities for smaller players. Right now only the big
             | guys have the chops to carpet-bomb the market regardless of
             | bots. Noise benefits those who can afford to stand above
             | it.
        
           | netcan wrote:
           | Yes... but maybe also no. Well measured advertising budgets
           | are definitely part of the game. But so are poorly measured
           | campaigns. Type B often cargo cult A. It's far from a perfect
           | market.
           | 
           | In any case, Adwords is at this point a very established
           | product... very much an incumbent. Disruption generally, does
           | not play to their favor by default.
        
           | mbesto wrote:
           | > YouTube's revenue comes from large advertisers who can
           | measure real impact of ads.
           | 
           | Not necessarily. First, attribution is not a solved problem.
           | Second, not all advertisement spend is on direct
           | merchandising, but rather for branding/positioning where
           | "sign up" / "buy" metrics are meaningless to them.
        
           | kibwen wrote:
           | What on Earth has given so many people in this thread the
           | confidence to assert that marketing departments actually have
           | any real way to gauge the effectiveness of a given ad
           | campaign? It's effectively impossible to adjust for all the
           | confounding variables in such a chaotic system, so ad spend
           | is instead determined by internal politicking,
           | pseudoscientific voodoo, and the deftness of the marketing
           | department's ability to kiss executive ass. This ain't
           | science, it's perversely-incentivized emotion.
        
         | pilgrim0 wrote:
         | I think on the same lines. Digital identity is the hardest
         | problem we've been procrastinating in solving since forever,
         | because it has the most controversial trade offs, which no two
         | persons can agree on. Despite the well known risks, it's
         | something only a State can do.
        
           | ethbr1 wrote:
           | There was a great post on HN about this problem, about a year
           | ago.
           | 
           | Think this was it:
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37092319
           | 
           | Interesting paper and exploration of the "pick two" nature of
           | the problem.
        
         | solumunus wrote:
         | > For example, what happens if Google cracks down hard on this
         | and suddenly 60-80% of YouTube traffic (or even ad-traffic)
         | evaporates because it was done by bots? It would wipe out their
         | revenue.
         | 
         | Nonsense. Advertisers measure results. CPM rates would simply
         | increase to match the increased value of a click.
        
         | romanovcode wrote:
         | > This trusted identity should be something governments need to
         | implement.
         | 
         | I rather live with dead-internet than this oppressive trash.
        
         | dom96 wrote:
         | What do governments need to implement? They already give you a
         | passport which can be used as a digital ID.
        
           | JimDabell wrote:
           | Services need the ability to obtain an identifier that:
           | 
           | - Belongs to exactly one real person.
           | 
           | - That a person cannot own more than one of.
           | 
           | - That is unique per-service.
           | 
           | - That cannot be tied to a real-world identity.
           | 
           | - That can be used by the person to optionally disclose
           | attributes like whether they are an adult or not.
           | 
           | Services generally don't care about knowing your exact
           | identity but being able to ban a person and not have them
           | simply register a new account, and being able to stop people
           | from registering thousands of accounts would go a long way
           | towards wiping out inauthentic and abusive behaviour.
           | 
           | I think DID is one effort to solve this problem, but I
           | haven't looked into it enough to know whether it's any good:
           | 
           | https://www.w3.org/TR/did-core/
        
             | dom96 wrote:
             | Agreed that offering an identifier like this would be
             | ideal. We should be fighting for this. But in the meantime,
             | using a passport ticks most of the boxes in your list.
             | 
             | I'm currently working on a social network that utilises
             | passports to ensure account uniqueness. I'm aware that
             | folks can have multiple passports, but it will be good
             | enough to ensure that abuse is minimal and real humans are
             | behind the accounts.
        
               | JimDabell wrote:
               | The main problem with this is that a hell of a lot of
               | people don't want to give sensitive personal documents to
               | social media platforms.
        
               | dom96 wrote:
               | Yeah. That will be the challenge.
               | 
               | I hope that enough are willing to if the benefits and
               | security are explained plainly enough. For example, I
               | don't intend to store any passport info, just hashes. So
               | there should be no risk, even if the DB leaks.
        
               | fwip wrote:
               | First, not everyone has passports - there are roughly
               | half as many US passports as Americans.
               | 
               | Second, how much of the passport information do you hash
               | that it's not reversible? If you know some facts about
               | your target (imagine a public figure), could an attacker
               | feasibly enumerate the remaining info to check to see if
               | their passport was registered in your database? For
               | example, there are only 2.6 billion possible American
               | passport numbers, so if you knew the rest of Taylor
               | Swift's info, you could conceivably use brute-force to
               | see if she's in your database. As a side effect, you'd
               | now know her passport number, as well.
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | > Second, how much of the passport information do you
               | hash that it's not reversible?
               | 
               | That doesn't even matter. You could hash the whole
               | passport and the passport could contain a UUID and the
               | hash db would still be usable to correlate identities
               | with accounts, because the attacker could separately have
               | the victim's complete passport info. Which is
               | increasingly likely the more sites try to use passports
               | like this, because some won't hash them or will get
               | breached sufficiently that the attackers can capture
               | passport info before it gets hashed and then there will
               | be public databases with everybody's complete passport
               | info.
        
           | mrybczyn wrote:
           | Passport might be a bit onerous - it's expensive and painful
           | process and many don't need it.
           | 
           | But it's a hilarious sign of worldwide government
           | incompetence that social insurance or other citizen
           | identification cards are not standard, free, and uniquely
           | identifiable and usable for online ID purposes (presumably
           | via some sort of verification service / PGP).
           | 
           | Government = people and laws. Government cannot even reliably
           | ID people online. You had one job...
        
             | secabeen wrote:
             | In the United States, the lack of citizen identification
             | cards is largely due to Republican opposition. People who
             | lack ID are more likely to be democratic voters, so there
             | is an incentive to oppose getting them ID. There's also a
             | religious element for some people, connected to Christian
             | myths about the end of the world.
        
               | cryptonector wrote:
               | This is utter nonsense.
        
               | consteval wrote:
               | It's kind of half true - there is an association between
               | not having an ID and being blue. Because people without
               | IDs are more likely to be people of color or of other
               | marginalized groups, which then are more likely to be
               | blue.
               | 
               | In addition, there's a strong conservative history of
               | using voter id as a means of voter suppression and
               | discrimination. This, in turn, has made the blue side
               | immediately skeptical of identification laws - even if
               | they would be useful.
               | 
               | So, now the anti-ID stuff is coming from everywhere.
        
               | cryptonector wrote:
               | It's absolutely not true. People have to supply IDs for
               | tons of activities. They have IDs. We know who they are.
               | They are registered to vote -- how did that happen w/o
               | ID? Of course they have IDs.
        
               | consteval wrote:
               | The statistics just don't back this up. Plenty of,
               | predominantly poor, people don't have driver's licenses.
               | And that's typically the only ID people have. Also,
               | poorer people may work under the table or deal in cash.
        
               | cryptonector wrote:
               | Link the stats please. There are ID types other than
               | driver's licenses. In fact, the DMVs around the country
               | issue non-driver IDs that are every bit as good as driver
               | licenses as IDs.
        
               | fwip wrote:
               | Where do you get this idea that you need to have an ID
               | card in order to register to vote? It's certainly not a
               | federal requirement.
               | 
               | In NY, you can register with ID, last 4 digits of your
               | social, or leave it blank. If you leave it blank, you
               | will need to provide some sort of identification when
               | voting, but a utility bill in your name and address will
               | suffice.
        
             | JimDabell wrote:
             | > But it's a hilarious sign of worldwide government
             | incompetence that social insurance or other citizen
             | identification cards are not standard, free, and uniquely
             | identifiable and usable for online ID purposes (presumably
             | via some sort of verification service / PGP).
             | 
             | Singapore does this. Everybody who is resident in Singapore
             | gets an identity card and a login for Singpass - an OpenID
             | Connect identity provider that services can use to obtain
             | information like address and visa status (with user
             | permission). There's a barcode on the physical cards that
             | can be scanned by a mobile app in person to verify that
             | it's valid too.
        
             | int_19h wrote:
             | When it comes to government-issued IDs, "standard" and
             | "free" is a solved problem in almost every country out
             | there. US is a glaring exception in this regard,
             | particularly so among developed countries. And it is
             | strictly a failure of policy - US already has all the
             | pieces in place for this, they just need to be put together
             | with official blessing. But the whole issue is so
             | politicized that both major parties view it as unacceptable
             | deviation from their respective dogmas on the subject.
        
           | secabeen wrote:
           | Less than half of Americans have passports, and of the
           | remaining half, a significant fraction do not have the
           | necessary documents to obtain one. Many of these people are
           | poor, people of color, or marginalized in other ways.
           | Government ID is needed, but you generally find the GOP
           | against actually building a robust, free, ubiquitous system
           | because it would largely help Americans who vote Democratic.
           | This is also why the GOP pushes Voter ID, but without
           | providing any resources to ensure that Americans can get said
           | ID.
        
             | int_19h wrote:
             | To be fair, you generally don't see Dems pushing for such a
             | free and ubiquitous system, either - "voter ID is bad" is
             | so entrenched on that side of the aisle that any talk about
             | such a system gets instant pushback, details be damned.
        
         | datadrivenangel wrote:
         | You would assume that Advertising companies with quality ad
         | space would be able to show higher click through rates and
         | higher impression to purchase rates -- overall cost per
         | conversion -- by removing bots that won't have a business
         | outcome from the top of the funnel.
         | 
         | But attribution is hard, so showing larger numbers of
         | impressions looks more impressive.
        
           | carlosjobim wrote:
           | Attribution is extremely easy, it is a solved problem.
           | 
           | Companies keep throwing away money on advertising for bots
           | and other non-customers because they either:
           | 
           | A) Are small businesses where the owner doesn't care about
           | what he's doing and enjoys the casino like experience of
           | buying ads online and see if he gets a return, or
           | 
           | B) Are big businesses where the sales people working with
           | online ads are interested in not solving the problem, because
           | they want to keep their salaries and budget.
        
         | nxobject wrote:
         | I think that's also part of Facebook's strategy of being as
         | open with llama as possible - they can carve out the niche as
         | the "okay if we're going to dive head first into the dead
         | internet timeline, advertisers will be comforted by the fact
         | that we're a big contributor to the conversation on the harms
         | of AI - by openly providing models for study."
        
         | kjkjadksj wrote:
         | On the other hand I think the best social media out there today
         | is 4chan. Entirely anonymous. Also, the crass humor and nsfw
         | boards act as a great filter to keep out advertising bot
         | networks from polluting the site like it did with reddit. No
         | one one wants to advertise on 4chan or have their brand
         | associated with it, which is great for quality discussion on
         | technical topics and niche interests.
        
           | dom96 wrote:
           | 4chan is actually one of the worst social media out there.
           | They are responsible for a hell of a lot of hate campaigns
           | out there. Anonymity breeds toxicity.
        
             | AnthonyMouse wrote:
             | Anonymity breeds veracity. As soon as you force people to
             | identify themselves they start lying to you whenever the
             | truth would be controversial. They refuse to concede when
             | someone proves them wrong because now they're under
             | pressure to save face. It's why Facebook's real name policy
             | causes the place to be so toxic.
        
         | bityard wrote:
         | I've been thinking about how AI will affect ad-supported
         | "content" platforms like YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, porn
         | sites, etc. My prediction is that as AI-generated content
         | improves in quality, or at least believability, they will not
         | prohibit AI-generated content, they will embrace it whole-
         | heartedly. Maybe not at first. But definitely gradually and
         | definitely eventually.
         | 
         | We know that these sites' growth and stability depends on
         | attracting human eyeballs to their property and KEEPING them
         | there. Today, that manifests as algorithms that analyze each
         | person's individual behavior and level of engagement and uses
         | that data to tweak that user's experience to keep them latched
         | (some might say addicted, via dopamine) to their app on the
         | user's device for as long as possible.
         | 
         | Dating sites have already had this down to a science for a long
         | time. There, bots are just part of the business model and have
         | been for two decades. It's really easy: you promise users that
         | you will match them with real people, but instead show them
         | only bots and ads. The bots are programmed to interact with the
         | users realistically over the site and say/do everything short
         | of actually letting two real people meet up. Because whenever a
         | dating site successfully matches up real people, they lose
         | customers.
         | 
         | I hope I'm wrong, but I feel that social content sites will
         | head down the same path. The sites will determine that users
         | who enjoy watching Reels of women in swimsuits jump on
         | trampolines can simply generate as many as they need, and tweak
         | the parameters of the generated video based on the user's
         | (perceived) preferences: age, size, swimsuit color, height of
         | bounce, etc. But will still provide JUST enough variety to keep
         | the user from getting bored enough to go somewhere else.
         | 
         | It won't just be passive content that is generated, all those
         | political flamewars and outrage threads (the meat and potatoes
         | of social media) could VERY well ALREADY be LLM-generated for
         | the sole purpose of inciting people to reply. Imagine happily
         | scrolling along and then reading the most ill-informed, brain-
         | dead comment you've ever seen. You know well enough that
         | they're just an idiot and you'll never change their mind, but
         | you feel driven to reply anyway, so that you can at LEAST point
         | out to OTHERS that this line of thinking is dangerous, then
         | maybe you can save a soul. Or whatever. So you click Reply but
         | before you can type in your comment, you first have to watch a
         | 13-second ad for a European car.
         | 
         | But of course the comment was never real, but you, the car, and
         | your money definitely are.
        
         | cryptonector wrote:
         | > This trusted identity should be something governments need to
         | implement.
         | 
         | Granting the premise for argument's sake, why should
         | governments do this? Why can't private companies do it?
         | 
         | That said, I've long thought that the U.S. Postal Service (and
         | similarly outside the U.S.) is the perfect entity for providing
         | useful user certificates and attribute certificates (to get
         | some anonymity, at least relative to peers, if not relative to
         | the government).
         | 
         | The USPS has:                 - lots of brick and mortar
         | locations       - staffed with human beings       - who are
         | trained and able to validate         various forms of identity
         | documents         for passport applications
         | 
         | UPS and FedEx are also similarly situated. So are grocery
         | stores (which used to, and maybe still do have bill payment
         | services).
         | 
         | Now back to the premise. I want for anonymity to be possible to
         | some degree. Perhaps AI bots make it impossible, or perhaps
         | anonymous commenters have to be segregated / marked as
         | anonymous so as to help everyone who wants to filter out bots.
        
           | consteval wrote:
           | I think the main argument for having the government do it as
           | opposed to the private sector is that the gov has a lot more
           | restrictions and we, the people, have a say. At least
           | theoretically.
           | 
           | Imagine if Walmart implemented an identity service and it
           | really took off and everyone used it. Then, imagine they ban
           | you because you tweeted that Walmart sucks. Now you can't get
           | a rental car, can't watch TV, maybe can't even get a job. A
           | violation of the first amendment in practice, but no such
           | amendment exists for Walmart.
        
             | cryptonector wrote:
             | We're already there. Apple and Google know who we all are
             | because we had to pay for our devices.
             | 
             | The government has no real restrictions.
        
           | throwway120385 wrote:
           | I used to think that, but recently had a really bad
           | experience with a lot of runaround with them when we had to
           | have our mail held for a few weeks while we sorted out a
           | mailbox break-in. We would go to one post office that was
           | supposed to have our mail and be told to go to another post
           | office, then get redirected back to the first post office
           | multiple times. And they kept talking about how they had to
           | work out the logistics and everything was changing over and
           | over. Some of the managers seemed to give my wife the wrong
           | information to get rid of her.
           | 
           | There were a few managers who tried to help and eventually we
           | got our mail but the way everything worked out was absurd. I
           | think they could handle national digital identity except that
           | if you ever have a problem or need special treatment to
           | address an issue buckle up because you're in for a really
           | awful experience.
           | 
           | The onboarding and day-to-day would probably be pretty good
           | given the way they handle passport-related stuff though.
        
           | rurp wrote:
           | > why should governments do this? Why can't private companies
           | do it?
           | 
           | A private company will inevitably be looking to maximize
           | their profit. There will always be the risk of them
           | enshittifying the service to wring more money out of citizens
           | and/or shutting it down abruptly if it's not profitable.
           | 
           | There's also the accountability problem. A national ID system
           | would only be useful if one system was widely used, but free
           | markets only function well with competition and choice. It
           | could work similar to other critical services like power
           | companies, but those are very heavily regulated for these
           | same reasons. A private system would only work if it was
           | stringently regulated, which I don't think would be much
           | different from having the government run it internally.
        
             | internet101010 wrote:
             | It could be done similar to how car inspections are done in
             | Texas: price is set statewide, all oil change places do the
             | service, and you redeem a code after.
             | 
             | The problem with this though is the implications of someone
             | at whatever the private entity is falsely registering
             | people under the table - this would need to be considered a
             | felony in order for it to work.
        
             | AnthonyMouse wrote:
             | > A national ID system would only be useful if one system
             | was widely used, but free markets only function well with
             | competition and choice.
             | 
             | Isn't this also a problem with having the government do it?
             | E.g. it's supposed to prevent you from correlating a
             | certification that the user is over 18 with their full
             | identity, but it's insecure and fails to do so, meanwhile
             | the government won't fix it because the administrative
             | bureaucracy is a monopoly with limited accountability or
             | the corporations abusing it for mass surveillance lobby
             | them to keep the vulnerability.
        
         | gregw134 wrote:
         | What's best practice for preventing bot abuse, for mere mortal
         | developers? Would requiring a non-voip phone number at
         | registration be effective?
        
           | AnthonyMouse wrote:
           | There is no such thing as a "non-VoIP phone number". All
           | phone numbers are phone numbers. Some people try to ban
           | blocks assigned to small phone providers, but some actual
           | humans use those. Meanwhile major carriers are leasing
           | numbers to anyone who pays from the same blocks they issue to
           | cellular customers. Also, number portability means even
           | blocks don't mean anything anymore.
           | 
           | Large companies sometimes claim to do this "to fight spam"
           | because it's an excuse to collect phone numbers, but that's
           | because most humans only have one or two and it serves as a
           | tracking ID, not because spammers don't have access to a
           | million. Be suspicious of anyone who demands this.
        
           | changing1999 wrote:
           | Unfortunately, every anti-bot feature also harms real people.
           | As a voip user, I wouldn't be able to sign up for your app.
        
           | spacebanana7 wrote:
           | If it's really important to you then use Apple / Google /
           | GitHub login.
           | 
           | Obviously this has many downsides, especially from a privacy
           | perspective, but it quickly allows you to stop all but the
           | most sophisticated bots from registering.
           | 
           | Personally I just stick my sites behind Cloudflare until
           | they're big enough to warrant more effort. It prevents most
           | bots without too much burden on users. Also relatively simple
           | to move away from.
        
             | gregw134 wrote:
             | Does that really work? I'm trying to build a site with
             | upvotes--wouldn't it be really easy for someone with 100
             | bought Google accounts to make 100 accounts on my site?
        
         | mike_hearn wrote:
         | Well you're about to find out, because YouTube is doing a
         | massive bot/unofficial client crackdown right now. YTDL,
         | Invidious etc are all being banned. Perhaps Google got tired of
         | AI competitors scraping YouTube.
         | 
         | In reality, as others have pointed out, Google has always
         | fought bots on their ad networks. I did a bit of it when I
         | worked there. Advertisers aren't stupid, if they pay money for
         | no results they stop spending.
        
           | internet101010 wrote:
           | yt-dlp works just fine for me. Or are you saying that are
           | limiting those that do downloads in bulk?
        
             | mike_hearn wrote:
             | Probably the latter. yt-dlp can be detected and it yields
             | account / IP bans, it seems. They've been going back and
             | forth around the blocks for weeks but only by claiming to
             | be different devices, each time they do the checks are
             | added for the new client and they have to move onto the
             | next. There's a finite number of those.
             | 
             | Here's a comment from Invidious on the matter:
             | 
             | https://github.com/iv-
             | org/invidious/issues/4734#issuecomment...
        
         | jenny91 wrote:
         | > This trusted identity should be something governments need to
         | implement.
         | 
         | I have been thinking about this as well. It's exactly the kind
         | of infrastructure that governments should invest in _to enable
         | new opportunities for commerce_. Imagine all the things you
         | could build if you could verify that someone is a real human
         | somehow with good accuracy (without necessarily verifying their
         | identity).
        
       | ddoolin wrote:
       | What is the primary point(s) of building bots that do this kind
       | of thing, that seemingly flood the internet with its own Great
       | Internet Garbage Patch?
        
         | corytheboyd wrote:
         | It is always money. You can sell "I will get your launch to top
         | 10 in ProductHunt." Yes if/when taken too far, everyone will
         | ditch ProductHunt and it will die, but until then, a quick buck
         | can be made.
        
           | metalliqaz wrote:
           | by the looks of the graphs in the linked article, it appears
           | ProductHunt is already a zombie
        
           | criddell wrote:
           | It isn't always money. Sometimes it's just lulz.
           | 
           | Reply All had did a podcast (ep #178) about people who are
           | running bots on Counter-Strike that ruin the game. They
           | tracked down a person who does this and they just basically
           | do it to be annoying.
           | 
           | > [... ]what's the point of running them? Like, what do you
           | get out of the exercise?
           | 
           | > There are many reasons to run them. Most if not [all]
           | casual players dislike bots (which is a reason to run them)
        
         | datadrivenangel wrote:
         | Existing businesses did this with live humans.
         | 
         | Ranking/review sites for B2B services would work with paying
         | customers to solicit interviews and reviews from their
         | customers, and of course only the 5 star reviews get posted.
         | 
         | Heck, a lot of these "bots" may actually be a real human
         | working a table of 100 cell phones in some cheaper country.
        
         | intended wrote:
         | Why not do it? It's essentially spam / pollution, and there are
         | no consequences.
        
       | oaklander wrote:
       | Since I know you personally, I know how much work you put into
       | this and it shows. Nicely done
        
         | welder wrote:
         | Thanks Siri! Yep back to normal work now.
        
       | api wrote:
       | We are in the twilight of the open Internet, at least for useful
       | discourse. The future is closed enclaves like private forums,
       | Discord, Slack, P2P apps, private networks, etc.
       | 
       | It won't be long before the entire open Internet looks like
       | Facebook does now: bots, AI slop, and spam.
        
       | xnorswap wrote:
       | The second histogram looks more human than the "not bot" first
       | one?
       | 
       | Second user clearly takes a look before work, during their lunch-
       | break and then after work?
        
         | welder wrote:
         | There frequency of "game-changing" in comments would say
         | otherwise. It's probably cron running at those intervals, not a
         | work schedule.
        
           | rozab wrote:
           | I hate game-changing as much as the next guy, and was ranting
           | about it on here just the other day, but some people really
           | do talk like that.
           | 
           | Have you tried running any network analysis on these bots? I
           | would expect to see strong clustering, and I think that's
           | usually the primary way these things are identified. The
           | prompt injection is an awesome approach though!
        
             | welder wrote:
             | Yes I did on subsets of the data because cupy and cudf
             | haven't implemented intersection functions yet for the GPU.
             | But the clustering is weak because new signups are cheap so
             | they burn/throwaway accounts after one targeted vote.
             | Normally clustering works with more than one common vote
             | between users?
        
         | ImPostingOnHN wrote:
         | There's also the point that one histogram is an order or two of
         | magnitude larger than the other one. Larger samples of normally
         | distributed data will tend to better resemble a normal
         | distribution.
        
       | cynicalpeace wrote:
       | I wonder how much of Meta and other social media ad revenue is
       | based on bot activity.
       | 
       | You can setup a campaign where you pay for comments and you're
       | actually paying Meta to show your ad to a bunch of bots.
       | 
       | Does anyone have more resources/inside info that confirms/denies
       | this suspicion?
        
         | jajko wrote:
         | If people are paying lets say these morally questionable
         | companies like meta ad campaigns, they deserve what they get. I
         | don't want to condone any criminal behavior, but this whole
         | business of people's mass manipulation is vastly immoral bunch
         | of white (or not so white) lies.
        
           | cynicalpeace wrote:
           | Who do you suggest as an alternative for paid ads?
        
             | kjkjadksj wrote:
             | Building relationships with clients, same as it ever was.
             | There are companies today that have been selling for
             | example very specific machined parts for 100 years. You
             | have never heard of them. They don't advertise on facebook.
             | Yet they bring in enough work to stay in business without
             | these paid campaigns. The secret sauce? The rolodex and
             | actually calling potential clients directly.
        
               | cynicalpeace wrote:
               | This answer is a good answer for some companies, but for
               | other companies it's very hand-wavy. Paid ads have value
               | and you can make a pretty penny even on Meta (actually,
               | especially on Meta compared to others) if you do it
               | right.
               | 
               | Still curious about alternatives for paid ads
        
               | jajko wrote:
               | Sure you can make penny, you can do a lot of pennies on
               | various amoral businesses, often the deeper this shit
               | goes the more gold is in it.
               | 
               | I call it amoral, nobody even trying to object it since
               | we all know reality, and I stand by it. It slowly but
               | surely destroys future of our kids and makes it bleaker,
               | and objectively worse. Maybe not massively (and maybe
               | yes, I don't know and neither do you), and its hard to
               | pinpoint a single actor, so lets point it in ad business.
               | 
               | But I guess as long as you have your 'pretty penny' thats
               | all you care about? I don't expect much sympathy on a
               | forum where better half of participants work for the
               | worst offenders, 'pretty penny' it is as we all know, but
               | curious about a single good argument about that pesky
               | morality.
        
               | cynicalpeace wrote:
               | That response was not to your comment, but a different
               | comment.
               | 
               | I don't see why advertising is particularly moral or
               | immoral. Depends on the platform, content, product, etc.
               | Which is why I asked you for suggestions about other ad
               | platforms.
        
               | 9dev wrote:
               | Advertising is amoral because it's end game is always
               | sacrificing things humans generally regard as valuable--
               | our attention, leisure time, savings--for shareholder
               | revenue. Advertising always has an incentive to increase
               | revenue by being ever more invasive, corrupting anything
               | it touches. As it goes, it shifts our perception of
               | normal--just imagine asking someone from the 1920ies
               | whether they're okay with ads blasting from gas station
               | pumps, elevators, or toilets. Or if they would be okay
               | with someone watching your every move and deduct what
               | they could offer you when you're exhausted or miserable
               | and easy prey. Advertisers have convinced us this is
               | normal. It's not. And it will only ever get worse.
        
               | FredPret wrote:
               | What?
               | 
               | How do you meet these clients in the first place?
               | 
               | How do you get them to answer their phone?
               | 
               | How do you get word-of-mouth if you're just starting out?
               | 
               | Edit: reduced level of snark
        
               | n_ary wrote:
               | Usually they cold call or email with
               | prices/quotes/offers(see my previous comment to parent),
               | and somehow they harvest of buy the contacts of
               | businesses and employees.
               | 
               | I sometimes suspect that, there are some ways to collect
               | these from linkedin or the business card printers sell
               | the contact info in black(due to strict data privacy act
               | in EU). Because only two places my work email & work
               | phone number being available are at the business card
               | printer and linkedin(we need to use work email to access
               | some elearning things, don't ask).
        
               | n_ary wrote:
               | Well, about that thing. Some of our local companies in
               | machining and other things somehow buy private emails and
               | phone numbers. While I work at a place that do not
               | directly need such services, my spam box and my work
               | phone(mobile) blocklist is full of services calling me to
               | offer their latest price and if I can forward them to my
               | boss or whatever. So, either online ads or other forms of
               | spamming.
        
         | dzink wrote:
         | Facebook has become full of generic name accounts posting
         | generic AI generated content. Despite all flagging it is
         | incessant, which tells me it's likely sanction or even created
         | by the company to fill content gaps. I'd say 30-50% or content
         | that shows for me is suspicious.
        
         | doctorpangloss wrote:
         | > You can setup a campaign where you pay for comments
         | 
         | You cannot setup a campaign where you pay for comments
         | (https://www.facebook.com/business/help/1438417719786914#). But
         | maybe you mean other user generated content like messages. You
         | ought to be able to figure out pretty quickly if those are
         | authentic.
        
           | kjkjadksj wrote:
           | Do you care if they are authentic? Probably not. You are in
           | the business of getting clicks on an ad. Your client has to
           | worry about actually converting that to product sales. Thats
           | their problem and not yours as the ad firm.
        
             | doctorpangloss wrote:
             | Meta and ad agencies are definitely incentivized that your
             | ads convert and that engagement is authentic. Otherwise why
             | deal with them at all? SMBs are like 40% of Meta's
             | revenues, the entire world finds the product valuable. It
             | is a little glib to try to make the contrarian case on
             | conversion.
             | 
             | The toxic part of their incentives is that they want
             | businesses to commit large budgets on campaigns whose
             | performance you can measure with very little money spent
             | and very little data.
        
               | cynicalpeace wrote:
               | Yes definitely. But then that last sentence sorta leads
               | to the first question you had- why deal with them at all?
               | 
               | I think it's because despite that toxicity it still seems
               | to be the best ad platform in town. Haven't seen anybody
               | suggest a better alternative. Feels almost monopolistic.
        
             | cynicalpeace wrote:
             | I've heard it said that Meta prioritizes like this:
             | 
             | 1. Users 2. Meta 3. Advertisers
             | 
             | I have a feeling it's actually:
             | 
             | 1. Meta 2. Users 3. Advertisers
             | 
             | But in the end, advertisers always end up on the bottom.
             | Especially since advertisers need Meta more than Meta needs
             | any one of them.
        
           | cynicalpeace wrote:
           | My bad, I guess I was thinking of engagement campaigns and
           | yes messaging campaigns
        
         | ToastBackwards wrote:
         | I often wonder this as well. Would love to have more insight
         | into that
        
         | FredPret wrote:
         | I do - I think the effect on Meta's ad revenue is nil.
         | 
         | Advertisers measure ad campaigns by ROAS (return on ad spend).
         | This is driven by actual dollars spent, cutting out all bots
         | right away.
         | 
         | Clicks / views / comments are irrelevant except as far as
         | getting the ad to show for actual buyers.
        
           | cynicalpeace wrote:
           | I've advertised quite a bit on Meta, and also hired people to
           | do it for me. ROAS, for me, is the most important metric, but
           | it's not the only metric people look at. Speaking from
           | experience, plenty of people like to look at and optimize
           | other metrics.
        
             | FredPret wrote:
             | For interest's sake, what other metrics do you find most
             | valuable?
        
       | smileybarry wrote:
       | I've said this in another thread here, but Twitter is borderline
       | unusable because of this. I have 5,000+ blocked accounts by now
       | (not exaggerating), and the first few screenfuls of replies are
       | still bots upon bots upon bots. All well-behaved $8-paying
       | netizens, of course.
        
         | dewey wrote:
         | Why bother if you have to spend that much time curating a good
         | feed?
        
           | smileybarry wrote:
           | Unfortunately it's still the main "shortform" social network
           | here for local stuff. Not enough in my country moved to
           | Mastodon or Bluesky. (Referenced HN comment:
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41586643)
           | 
           | And no, it's _definitely_ not worth it if you 're joining/new
           | enough. Anyone who asks me about Twitter I immediately tell
           | them to not bother and that I'm just "stuck" there. My
           | Following feed and most of the algorithmic feed is fine, it's
           | just the replies & interaction that took a huge hit.
        
             | evantbyrne wrote:
             | I'm curious what kind of engagement people who aren't
             | prolific posters are seeing on Twitter these days. Before I
             | left I noticed that engagement went off a cliff to near
             | zero immediately following the aggressive algorithm changes
             | with blue check spam being promoted, but remained normal on
             | my other social channels. It didn't seem like there were
             | any normal people talking with each other on Twitter.
        
               | smileybarry wrote:
               | It's down there, below the bluecheck promotion. Or in
               | (non-English) circles where the LLM bots haven't
               | proliferated yet, which are also (mostly) why I stuck
               | around.
        
               | EasyMark wrote:
               | I tried using an extension that filters out blue checks
               | and it's still about 90% garbage from troll accounts who
               | can't afford $8. The only way is to just follow those who
               | you enjoy, although you'll likely have to find them
               | outside of twitter, because their useful posts are
               | drowning in a sea of trash
        
               | jjkaczor wrote:
               | Zero. I post the same things to Mastodon, Threads,
               | BlueSky, and other places and get plenty of engagement.
               | 
               | However - because I don't pay for a "blue checkmark",
               | that's my best guess as to why I get zero engagement.
               | 
               | That's fine - I have always treated Twitter as a "post-
               | only", "fire & forget" medium.
        
         | imiric wrote:
         | I haven't used Twitter in ages, but what happened to Musk's
         | paywall idea? That might actually deter bots and real users, so
         | it seems like a win-win for everyone to stop using it.
         | 
         | Otherwise, I doubt spammers/scammers are really paying $8/mo
         | for a verified account. How are they getting them then?
        
           | schmidtleonard wrote:
           | Great, so instead of selling me overpriced intimate shaving
           | accessories the bots will be trying to convince me that
           | Europe will freeze without Russian natural gas.
        
             | vizzier wrote:
             | I read this comment as a bit tongue in cheek, but to be
             | clear, the aim of the bots isn't generally to advocate for
             | as specific viewpoint but to flood the information
             | landscape with bad information making it challenging for
             | normal people to discern what is real and useful.
        
         | cdrini wrote:
         | That's fascinating to me, I've never blocked a single account
         | on Twitter and see very few bots. The most annoying thing about
         | twitter for me are the folks monetising the platform, that keep
         | posting rage-bait to game the algorithm! But note I also
         | generally only use the "for you" tab.
        
           | schmidtleonard wrote:
           | You sure about that?
           | 
           | https://youtu.be/WEc5WjufSps?t=193
           | 
           | Dr. Egon Cholakian sends its regards. That is to say, the
           | bots are getting good. LLMs made this technologically easy a
           | few years ago, it would take a couple years to develop and
           | deploy a sophisticated bot network like this (not for you or
           | I, but for an org with real money behind it that timeline is
           | correct) and now we are seeing them start to appear. The
           | video I linked is proof that bots already deployed in the
           | wild can take 40 minutes of dedicated effort from a capable
           | suspicious person to identify with high conviction. Maybe it
           | would have taken you 10, I'm not hear to argue that, but I am
           | here to argue that it is starting to take real effort to
           | identify the best bots and this is the worst they will ever
           | be.
           | 
           | I don't care how smart, capable, or suspicious you are,
           | within 3 years it will not be economical for you to curate
           | your list of non-bot contacts on the basis of content (as
           | opposed to identity).
        
             | cdrini wrote:
             | Well on my "for you" page, I also follow a pretty niche
             | audience of tech people, which helps :P They're a little
             | easier to verify since they generally also have blogs, or
             | websites, or github accounts, or youtube videos, etc that
             | help verify they're not bots.
             | 
             | I also think people create bots for some purpose --
             | instability, political divisiveness, financial gain, etc.
             | And I'm kind of inherently not using twitter for any of
             | that. I don't think I could find an account on my twitter
             | thread that mentions the word "liberal", "trump",
             | "conservative", or any of that if I tried! I agree that's a
             | muuuuch more likely place to find bots. What sort of bots
             | do you notice the most in your twitter?
        
               | schmidtleonard wrote:
               | Yeah I suppose if you are already vetting based on
               | identity from outside the network that probably does
               | scale. Most people aren't as careful about this as you
               | are, though, so it'll still be a problem and it will have
               | to get much worse before it gets better.
               | 
               | I'm not on twitter. I left when the tidal wave of right-
               | wing spam started to outweigh the entertainment value of
               | seeing Yann LeCun dunk on Elon Musk.
        
               | intended wrote:
               | I have a theory, which accounts like yours would be very
               | interesting for.
               | 
               | Instead of looking at it as a per user basis, if you look
               | at it as a network or ecosystem, the issue is that the
               | network is being flooded with spam.
               | 
               | Since nothing happens all at once, over time different
               | filters will get overwhelmed and eventually impact the
               | less networked accounts.
               | 
               | It would be VERY interesting to find out when, or if
               | ever, you begin to suspect some accounts you follow.
        
             | akomtu wrote:
             | That's the Darwin's theory for bots: only the fittest
             | survive on the Twitter lands.
        
           | EasyMark wrote:
           | Using the "for you" tab is the only way to use twitter these
           | days. Their suggest algo is complete garbage. I spent a
           | couple days trying various ways to train it and still I got
           | was complete garbage, so I accepted reality that twitter
           | doesn't really have an algo for the feed, just a firehouse of
           | crazy people and engagement trolls
        
             | jrhizor wrote:
             | You mean the "following" tab, right?
        
               | cdrini wrote:
               | Oh shoot I flipped it!! Darnit, thanks for pointing that
               | out. I also meant the following tab on my post!
        
             | blitzar wrote:
             | > Using the "for you" tab is the only way to use twitter
             | these days
             | 
             | The first 20 posts of my "for you" tab is Elon Musk, then
             | it goes on to show me more useful content. I am wondering
             | if following him or blocking him will make any difference.
        
           | kimixa wrote:
           | I have an account I purely use to follow other accounts. I
           | haven't posted anything aside from a "so, this is twitter
           | then?" years ago.
           | 
           | I get multiple bots requesting to follow me every day, and
           | maybe 10% of my "for you" timeline is right-wing political
           | "discourse" engagement bots, despite never having followed or
           | interacted with anything similar, aside from slowly
           | increasing my block list when I see them.
        
         | Eddy_Viscosity2 wrote:
         | There is no twitter, only X.
         | 
         | edit: What I meant by this is not the name thing but more
         | fundamentally that what twitter was, is no longer so. It's now
         | a different thing now, its has similarities to twitter, but its
         | not twitter.
        
           | stronglikedan wrote:
           | Seriously. The same people that deadname X would be up in
           | arms about deadnaming other things.
        
         | EasyMark wrote:
         | If you only use the "following" tab twitter is fine, if you try
         | to use the "for you" tab then you are expecting too much of
         | someone who posts known nazis and says "hmmm..." or
         | "interesting..."
        
       | doctorpangloss wrote:
       | Do you think TikTok view counts are real?
       | 
       | Alternatively, is there anything stopping TikTok from making up
       | view count numbers?
       | 
       | Facebook made up video view counts. So what?
       | 
       | TikTok can show a video to as many, or as few, people as it
       | wants, and the number will go up and down. If the retention is
       | high enough, for some users, to show ads, which are the videos
       | that the rules I'm describing apply to with certainty, why can't
       | it apply those rules to organic videos too?
       | 
       | It's interesting. You don't need bots to create the illusion of
       | engagement. Unless you work there, you can't really prove or
       | disprove that user activity on many platforms is authentic.
        
       | CalRobert wrote:
       | I weep at the thought that every site will require login with sso
       | from google (and maybe Apple if you're lucky). We're close to
       | that already.
       | 
       | If only micropayments had taken off or been included in the
       | original spec. Or there were some way to prove I am human without
       | saying _which_ human I am.
        
         | wickedsight wrote:
         | > Or there were some way to prove I am human without saying
         | _which_ human I am.
         | 
         | I'm sure at some point a sort of trust network type thing will
         | take off. Will be hard to find a way to make it both private
         | and secure, but I guess some smart people will figure that out!
        
         | n_ary wrote:
         | I am still very curious about why the micropayment failed. I
         | recall mass outrage at Brave for tying the concept with
         | "cryptocurrency" but at the time the concept(minus the crypto
         | and brave holding the tip unannounced if the site didn't join-
         | in) seemed decent.
         | 
         | Would the concept work, if it was unbundled from cryptocurrency
         | and made into something like, Paypal, where you add
         | money(prepaid), visit some site, if the site is registered, you
         | see a donate button and decide to donate few
         | cents/dollars/euros/yens whatever the native currency of the
         | author is and at the end of the month, if the donations
         | collected was more than enough to cover the fees + excess, it
         | would get paid out to author's desired mode of withdrawal?
        
         | joshdavham wrote:
         | > I weep at the thought that every site will require login with
         | sso from google (and maybe Apple if you're lucky)
         | 
         | I think that's where we're going. Not only is it a decent way
         | of filtering out bad accounts, it's also often easier to
         | implement on the dev side.
        
           | eikenberry wrote:
           | Can't the bots can sign up for google accounts like anyone
           | else?
        
             | joshdavham wrote:
             | They certainly could, but there's usually a bit of extra
             | authentication with some of these third parties. For
             | example, they usually request a phone number.
        
         | cryptonector wrote:
         | It would be nice if there were identity providers that could
         | vend attribute certificates with no PII besides the desired
         | attributes, such as:                 - is_human       -
         | is_over_18       - is_over_21       - is_over_65       -
         | sex/gender?       - marital status?       - ...?       -
         | device_number (e.g., you         might be allowed N<4 user
         | attribute certs, one per-         device)
         | 
         | and naturally the issuer would be the provider.
         | 
         | The issuer would have to keep track of how many extant
         | certificates any given customer has and revoke old ones when
         | the customer wants new ones due to device loss or whatever.
         | 
         | Any company that has widespread physical presence could provide
         | these. UPS, FedEx, grocery stores, USPS, etc.
        
           | tobias3 wrote:
           | European eID solutions can do some of those (e.g. is over
           | 18). Let's see if usage becomes more wide-spread.
        
         | tjalfi wrote:
         | Micropayments failed because users hate them[0]. They would
         | rather pay more for flat rate plans. Here's an excerpt from
         | _The Case Against Micropayments_ [1]. It 's an old paper, but
         | human behavior hasn't changed.
         | 
         |  _Behavioral economics, the study of what had for a long time
         | been dismissed as the economicly irrational behavior of people,
         | is finally becoming respectable within economics. In marketing,
         | it has long been used in implicit ways. One of the most
         | relevant findings for micropayments is that consumers are
         | willing to pay more for flat-rate plans than for metered ones.
         | This appears to have been discovered first about a century ago,
         | in pricing of local telephone calls [13], but was then
         | forgotten. It was rediscovered in the 1970s in some large scale
         | experiments done by the Bell System [3]. There is now far more
         | evidence of this, see references in [13], [14]. As one example
         | of this phenomenon, in the fall of 1996, AOL was forced to
         | switch to flat rate pricing for Internet access._
         | 
         |  _The reasons are described in [19]:_
         | 
         |  _What was the biggest complaint of AOL users? Not the widely
         | mocked and irritating blue bar that appeared when members
         | downloaded information. Not the frequent unsolicited junk
         | e-mail. Not dropped connections. Their overwhelming gripe: the
         | ticking clock. Users didn't want to pay by the hour anymore.
         | ... Case had heard from one AOL member who insisted that she
         | was being cheated by AOL's hourly rate pricing. When he checked
         | her average monthly usage, he found that she would be paying
         | AOL more under the flat-rate price of $19.95. When Case
         | informed the user of that fact, her reaction was immediate. 'I
         | don't care,' she told an incredulous Case. 'I am being cheated
         | by you.'_
         | 
         |  _The lesson of behavioral economics is thus that small
         | payments are to be avoided, since consumers are likely to pay
         | more for flat-rate plans. This again argues against
         | micropayments._
         | 
         | [0]
         | https://web.archive.org/web/20180222082156/http://www.openp2...
         | 
         | [1] https://www-
         | users.cse.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/case.against.micr...
        
       | dewey wrote:
       | PH has always been a weird place, the comments are always
       | Linkedin level of boring (Copy paste positivity about basically
       | every product) and it always felt like people were just
       | commenting there to funnel people to their own profile.
        
         | WD-42 wrote:
         | I feel the same. I'm not surprised by this, a sleazy site is
         | going to attract sleazy actors. Me good llm.
        
       | mulhoon wrote:
       | Somebody needs to sell t-shirts "me good LLM"
        
         | novoreorx wrote:
         | I will wear it everytime I meet AI investors
        
         | welder wrote:
         | I'll print some, you can pick them up for free in SF. Hoodies
         | and tees.
        
           | jenny91 wrote:
           | How will my bot buy one if it has to turn up in person.
        
             | welder wrote:
             | Soon the bot will send a human to pick it up for them.
        
       | mrjay42 wrote:
       | Partially unrelated: "Me good LLM" is the Post-GPT "Ok boomer" :3
        
       | lofaszvanitt wrote:
       | EU needs to regulate this too.
        
       | ChrisArchitect wrote:
       | Related:
       | 
       |  _Product Hunt isn 't dying, it's becoming gentrified_
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41700517
        
       | delichon wrote:
       | I have a year old lurker account on X. I've never made a single
       | comment with it. But 35 attractive women are now following me.
       | Zero men, zero unattractive women. I doubt that it is the result
       | of the animal magnetism of my likes.
       | 
       | It's a microcosm of the whole darned web.
        
         | 93po wrote:
         | I feel like looking at this sort of behavior would make it
         | really easy to spot bot accounts. I have the same thing
         | happening on my account.
        
         | EasyMark wrote:
         | I blocked a bunch of those accounts and the number of rando hot
         | girls trying to get me to follow them dropped really quickly.
         | You may give that a try. Maybe they have some very rough algo
         | that does attempt to stop those follow varieties that you block
         | a lot of
        
           | bryanrasmussen wrote:
           | probably the rando hot girls are all run by the same big bot
           | farms, or bot farms sell suckers lists so if you are a sucker
           | for one rando hot girl bot the others soon find out.
        
           | sdenton4 wrote:
           | They're trying to simulate real accounts by following people.
           | Blocks are likely a strong signal for anti spam. So if the
           | spammers notice that you block bots, they won't want to burn
           | accounts by following you, and will instead follow accounts
           | that don't block bots.
        
         | tim333 wrote:
         | I expect if you chat to them you'll find they have some
         | interesting crypto opportunities to invest in, from my
         | experience. There's a lot of pig butchering stuff out there
         | (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39778486).
        
       | imiric wrote:
       | I do wonder if ProductHunt uses any CAPTCHA solution.
       | 
       | In spite of the flack that CAPTCHAs usually get, I still think
       | they have a lot of value in fighting the majority of these spam
       | attacks.
       | 
       | The common criticisms are:
       | 
       | - They impact usability, accessibility and privacy. Users hate
       | them, etc.
       | 
       | These are all issues that can be improved. In the last few years
       | there have been several CAPTCHAs that work without user input at
       | all, and safeguard user privacy.
       | 
       | - They're not good enough, sophisticated (AI) bots can easily
       | bypass them, etc.
       | 
       | Sure, but even traditional techniques are useful at stopping low-
       | effort bots. Sophisticated ones can be fought with more advanced
       | techniques, including ML. There are products on the market that
       | do this as well.
       | 
       | - They're ineffective against dedicated attackers using
       | mechanical turks, etc.
       | 
       | Well, sure, but these are entirely different attack methods.
       | CAPTCHAs are meant to detect bots, and by definition, won't be
       | effective against attackers who decide to use actual humans.
       | Websites need different mechanisms to protect against that, but
       | those are also edge cases and not the main cause of the spam we
       | see today.
        
         | Terr_ wrote:
         | Lately I've been pondering how one might create a "probably a
         | human"/skin-in-the-game system. For example, imagine visiting
         | an "attestor" site where you can make a one-time donation of $5
         | to a charity of your choice, and in exchange it gives you some
         | proof-you-spent-money tokens. Those tokens can be spent
         | (burned) by some collaborating site (e.g. HN) to mark your
         | account there as _likely_ a human, or at least a bot whose
         | owner will feel pain if it is banned.
         | 
         | This would be _far_ more privacy-preserving that dozens of
         | national-ID lookup systems, and despite the appearance of
         | "money for speech" it could actually be _cheaper_ than whatever
         | mix of time and bus-fare and paperwork in a "free" system.
         | 
         | ____________
         | 
         | I imagine the big problems would be things like:
         | 
         | * How to handle fraudulent payments, e.g. someone buying tokens
         | with a stolen credit card. Easiest fix would be some long
         | waiting-period before the token becomes usable.
         | 
         | * How to protect against a fraudulent attestor site that just
         | takes your money, or one whose tokens are value-less.
         | 
         | * How to protect against a fraudulent destination site that
         | secretly harvests your proof-token for its own use, as opposed
         | to testing/burning it properly. Possible social fix: Put in a
         | fake token, if the site "accepts" then you know it's
         | misbehaving.
         | 
         | * Handling decentralization, where multiple donation sites may
         | be issuing their own tokens and multiple account-sites that may
         | only want to support/trust a subset of those tokens.
        
           | doctorpangloss wrote:
           | > Lately I've been pondering how one might create a "probably
           | a human"/skin-in-the-game system.
           | 
           | This has the same energy as the "we need benchmarks for LLMs"
           | startups. Like sure it's obvious and you can imagine really
           | complex cathedrals about it. But nobody wants that. They
           | "just" want Apple and Google to provide access to the same
           | APIs their apps and backends use, associating authentic phone
           | activity with user accounts. You already get most of the way
           | there by supporting iCloud login, which should illuminate to
           | you what you are really asking for is to play outside of
           | Apple's ecosystem, a totally different ask.
        
           | tim333 wrote:
           | There is the much slagged off but maybe effective Worldcoin.
        
           | mandibles wrote:
           | Have you checked out the L402[0] protocol?
           | 
           | It's basically using the HTTP 402: Payment Required status
           | code and serving up a Lightning Network payment invoice.
           | 
           | Edit to add: it basically solves all of the caveat issues you
           | identified.
           | 
           | [0]: https://l402.org/
        
         | m463 wrote:
         | I wonder if this is like the recent article about people not
         | buying from locked display cabinets:
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41630482
         | 
         | how many humans does captcha send away?
        
         | class3shock wrote:
         | As someone that already often runs into them due to vpn use
         | being flagged please no more. Think about how much human time
         | has been wasted on these things.
        
       | arnaudsm wrote:
       | What's the endgame of a dead internet? Everyone leaves and most
       | interactions happens in private group chats?
       | 
       | It's the serendipity of the original internet I'll miss the most.
        
         | causal wrote:
         | One of two possibilities I foresee, unsure which will play out:
         | 
         | 1) People surrender their perceived anonymity in favor of real
         | interactions, embracing some kind of digital ID that ensures
         | some platforms are human-only.
         | 
         | or
         | 
         | 2) AI gets good enough that people stop caring whether they're
         | real or not.
        
           | 9dev wrote:
           | I bet my money on 1). Verifiable credentials are currently in
           | the making, I can build products around this in my head
           | immediately (a good sign that someone smarter than me has it
           | figured out already), and huge platforms know so much about
           | you, they're almost there. It's going to make interactions
           | online safe, solve fraud, make everything personalised and
           | wholesome. At least that's going to be the narrative. Just
           | wait for it.
        
         | jen729w wrote:
         | It just gets a bit smaller. See Mastodon, and why most people's
         | criticisms of it are in fact its strengths. For ~5% of the
         | current internet.
        
       | welder wrote:
       | I'm reposting this [0] because it got flagged from the HN
       | algorithm thinking I'm posting spam [1] -\\_(tsu)_/-
       | 
       | [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41711410
       | 
       | [1] https://hnrankings.info/41708837/
        
         | welder wrote:
         | Now it's back but the damage was done, lost 4 hrs of votes and
         | won't recover
         | 
         | https://hnrankings.info/41708837
        
       | amiantos wrote:
       | I have a couple posts on reddit that didn't receive a lot of
       | comments but every week or so it'll get a comment that is some
       | GPT-powered bot going, "<topic of post on reddit>? Wow! That's
       | really thought provoking, I wonder about why <topic of post on
       | reddit> is important," and so on, asking me very obvious
       | questions in an attempt to get me to feed the system more data.
       | 
       | I wouldn't be surprised to find out these bots are actually being
       | run by reddit to encourage engagement.
        
         | akincisor wrote:
         | See the history of Reddit. It was manually curated sock puppets
         | before bots were viable, and now that bots are viable, I
         | strongly believe the bulk of comments and posts in the popular
         | subreddits are bots (and many are run by reddit themselves).
        
       | mirekrusin wrote:
       | There you go, start AntiAI, ppl will love it.
        
       | catinblack wrote:
       | When I posted my product on producthunt (and that was about 5
       | years ago) I got dozens of props with a first place guarantee.
       | Literally an hour after posting, I was bombarded with messages.
       | Now it's probably even worse.
        
       | zurtri wrote:
       | When I first launched my SaaS I used one of this online review
       | websites to help get testimonials and SEO and backlinks and
       | stuff.
       | 
       | Went fine for about 3 months and then the bots came. 2 months
       | after that the GPT bots came.
       | 
       | The site didn't do anything about the obviously fake reviews. How
       | did I know they were fake? well 95% of my customer base is in
       | Australia - so why are there Indians leaving reviews - when they
       | are not even customers? (yes I cross referenced the names).
       | 
       | So yeah, I just need to get that off my chest. Thanks for
       | reading.
        
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