[HN Gopher] 'Three New York Cities' Worth of Power: AI Is Stress...
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       'Three New York Cities' Worth of Power: AI Is Stressing the Grid
        
       Author : sbuttgereit
       Score  : 63 points
       Date   : 2024-09-29 18:44 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.wsj.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.wsj.com)
        
       | Spivak wrote:
       | https://archive.ph/rS3ze
       | 
       | > American Electric Power, which owns the line, has proposed a
       | new, higher electricity rate for data centers and cryptocurrency
       | miners that would lock them in as customers for a decade. The
       | companies are balking.
       | 
       | Look at that! Net Neutrality comes to the electrical wire. They
       | could have charged different rates based on
       | industrial/residential or volume but that wouldn't be optimal
       | rent extraction.
       | 
       | This is actually a really great article about the weird contract
       | dynamics of large power customers and the chicken-egg problem of
       | needing commitment for a certain amount of guaranteed spend to
       | justify the cost of servicing them. It has nothing at all to do
       | about AI.
        
         | XlA5vEKsMISoIln wrote:
         | Comparing this to net neutrality just poisons the well when
         | discussing NN. Internet service providers being able to
         | arbitrarily adjust pricing based on data source stifles
         | competition. Is there competition in the power supply industry
         | where a client can pick their source? Well, aside from having
         | their own generation. In this case transfer _is_ the service
         | and if one day huge demand cluster disappears the capacity for
         | it is left to rust.
        
           | Spivak wrote:
           | I don't think your point disagrees with mine. Charging based
           | on demand is fine, requiring take-or-pay contracts when your
           | request requires expensive grid upgrades is fine. Charging
           | more because it's a datacenter as opposed to heavy industry,
           | not fine. That's the part that mirrors NN.
           | 
           | But to directly answer your question, yes there is
           | competition. In most states, Ohio being one of them, you can
           | choose who provides your power generation. And since
           | companies are shopping states for where to build data centers
           | AEP has a lot of competition for delivery.
        
       | motohagiography wrote:
       | https://archive.is/rS3ze
       | 
       | how is this stressing a grid that has to shed huge amounts of
       | load to maintain availability off peak? instead of shedding the
       | load, just price it effectively and the demand will even out and
       | be a more efficient use of the fuel or generating station. the
       | problem with our energy infra is a lack of consistent demand, and
       | both AI and proof of work create the demand and a consumer of
       | last resort that would make generation way more efficient.
       | 
       | afaik, the main compute load is done in training, not in the
       | queries. this article sounds like astroturfing a pretext for
       | regulation under the auspices of "climate."
       | 
       | also, the diminishing value of cash is accelerating so taking
       | todays dollars and putting them into tomorrow's energy is
       | probably the most fundamentally sound economic use of capital
       | today.
       | 
       | power generators were loaded with debt and used as public sector
       | slush funds (in canada where they were nominally publicly owned)
       | and now the companies are not very productive because they have
       | to pass on the debt service cost to consumers, and prevent anyone
       | from entering the market to offer competitive service that would
       | interfere with that debt service. if you build new energy infra,
       | you need to protect it from managers piling it with debt to loot
       | it, but if you solve that real problem, demand is not a
       | "problem," it's the most valuable thing in the universe.
        
       | parsimo2010 wrote:
       | There's a saying I've heard that this reminded me of, "if you owe
       | the bank two dollars, that's your problem, but if you owe the
       | bank two billion dollars, that's the bank's problem." I think
       | it's relevant because it shows how responsibility shifts as
       | things scale. If you owe the bank a little money then you are
       | just a regular customer and you deal with the bank's policies.
       | But if you are a big player then it's up to the bank to negotiate
       | with you and come to mutually agreeable terms.
       | 
       | These companies that have many big data centers are now big
       | players. If they are stressing the grid they will need to be part
       | of the solution in expanding the capacity and infrastructure,
       | either by paying more to the electric companies or by including
       | power infrastructure in their vertical integration. Microsoft has
       | the right idea by investing in Three Mile Island, I think other
       | big players will do similar things.
        
         | boricj wrote:
         | Unlike banks, grids have an obvious solution to this problem:
         | stop supplying these players with energy when the grid is at
         | significant risk of a black out.
        
           | brookst wrote:
           | Are you suggesting it should be illegal for these players to
           | buy energy on the open market?
        
             | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
             | the grid gets to choose how it prioritizes power. if they
             | want too much power at a time the grid doesn't have enough
             | to go around, they're likely fairly early on the cutting
             | block
        
             | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
             | Sorry hospitals, these AI jerks have more money! /s
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | AI jerks will just start putting big red crosses on their
               | buildings, open one 10'x10' space in their facility with
               | some barely passed the exams to get a license type of
               | doctor and claim it to be a medical facility of some
               | sort. Just like other hospitals, they'll have a shortage
               | of beds.
               | 
               | I'm only half joking as from what I've seen of those
               | involved, I would not put this type of consideration past
               | them.
        
               | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
               | I'm sure they'd then be on here saying such a thing is
               | legal and exactly what law intended. /s
        
             | kazen44 wrote:
             | No, but we should have a discussion about if it is worth it
             | to expense so much energy for something with very little
             | hard, real use case. Al be it bitcoin or LLM's.
             | 
             | there is a lot of money behind AI, but i have yet to see
             | any of them actually get us a use case which work reliably.
             | 
             | Not to mention, AI is fun and all, but that energy could be
             | far better spend making the economy less reliant on fossil
             | fuel.
        
               | voidfunc wrote:
               | > there is a lot of money behind AI, but i have yet to
               | see any of them actually get us a use case which work
               | reliably.
               | 
               | Classic HN. You personally can't see the value of X
               | therefore the entire market for X is wrong.
        
             | FrustratedMonky wrote:
             | For emergencies, there are already methods to shut off
             | power to low priority businesses. And say, keep hospitals
             | open.
             | 
             | And, if you want to pay, you can pay a premium to have more
             | 'secure' power. This is an option today, already. No need
             | for any discussion about markets and 'government is holding
             | back the free market'. There is already a market to pay for
             | premium power. And the utilities can charge AI customers
             | more if they want.
        
               | kazen44 wrote:
               | this is actually a major problem in the netherlands at
               | the moment.
               | 
               | a part of the energy grid cannot handle the load being
               | generated by all the solar being deployed, and upgrading
               | the grid takes years. In the meantime, bussinesses and
               | even households simply are not getting a new power
               | connection unless they are deemed of enough importance.
        
               | AndrewDucker wrote:
               | If upgrading the grid takes years then invest until it
               | doesn't take years.
               | 
               | There have been many years of build up to solar power. If
               | the people running the grid haven't done their job then
               | replace them with people who can.
        
             | mattmanser wrote:
             | The suggestion is that they can buy it at certain times,
             | but not when the grid is nearing capacity. And yes, that's
             | a perfectly reasonable thing for a society to decide.
             | 
             | It's shared infrastructure, mainly paid for by public
             | funds. If a government decides the priority should be the
             | millions over the few, that's what happens in a functioning
             | government.
             | 
             | Or they can pay for their own power stations and
             | infrastructure to be built.
        
               | brookst wrote:
               | They _do_ contract for capacity in advance, which enables
               | suppliers to plan for demand.
        
             | notatoad wrote:
             | yes.
             | 
             | there is not and should not be an "open market" for power.
             | the sale of electricity from the power grid is highly
             | regulated, and for good reason. delivery to residential
             | customers and essential services should always be
             | prioritized over industrial bulk purchasers.
             | 
             | bulk purchasers already have the opportunity to use power
             | sources that are not connected to the grid, if they want to
             | use grid power they should be prioritized according to
             | their benefit to society, not their cash on hand.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | Charge them more until it's worth it.
               | 
               | And sure, tell them they get disconnected first when
               | there's a shortage. But a hard block is worse than taking
               | their money and using it for improvements.
        
               | qeternity wrote:
               | > they should be prioritized according to their benefit
               | to society
               | 
               | The fact that they have the capability to pay for and
               | consume this power is the strongest signal that they
               | _are_ indeed providing value to society. The money comes
               | from somewhere. If that turns out not to be the case,
               | they have the strongest incentive to stop.
               | 
               | But this sort of rationing at the hands of some
               | regulatory body has historically proven to be a far more
               | deadly cure than whatever the presumptive disease was.
        
               | notatoad wrote:
               | right, hospitals and farmers should just massively raise
               | their prices so they can better compete with crypto
               | miners, that will make the world better...
               | 
               | money is not a good indicator of value provided to
               | society. there is a ton of ways where it falls apart, and
               | there are a lot of people devoted to finding the ways
               | they can collect the most money while providing the least
               | benefit to society.
        
               | qeternity wrote:
               | > money is not a good indicator of value provided to
               | society
               | 
               | Ok, it's the least worst system we have...unless you have
               | an alternative. I'm all ears.
        
               | brookst wrote:
               | Usually these things end up with "well obviously my
               | personal priorities are objectively true..."
        
               | qeternity wrote:
               | Yes but the aggregate of every individual's personal
               | priorities are by definition society's priorities...
        
               | vundercind wrote:
               | Spotting and stopping the odd case where it's gone
               | haywire doesn't mean ditching market pricing across the
               | board. You can just fix (maybe even only temporarily!)
               | the part that's doing wacky, undesirable stuff.
        
               | jltsiren wrote:
               | That argument would require regular socialization and
               | redistribution of all wealth. The market does not
               | prioritize what the society needs, because individual
               | needs are weighted by wealth and income.
               | 
               | In a Western society, everyone's needs are supposed to be
               | equally important. We often don't even make majority
               | decisions, because we assume that the constitutional
               | rights of a minority are more important than what the
               | majority finds reasonable.
        
               | qeternity wrote:
               | > The market does not prioritize what the society needs
               | 
               | What do you think prices do? What do you think income is
               | reflective of?
               | 
               | Companies that make lots of money provide things that
               | lots of people are willing to pay for. This is the
               | reflection of what people need. Exxon makes money because
               | people want to stay warm. Cargill makes money because
               | people want to eat. Apple makes money because people want
               | to be entertained. Eli Lilly makes money because people
               | don't want to die.
               | 
               | What do you know that millions of people all acting in
               | their own self interest don't know?
        
               | kelseyfrog wrote:
               | Parent is saying that people with more money can affect
               | the price signal more. That simply isn't as fair as
               | weighting individuals equally. A lot of people don't like
               | the economic impacts of this, so they tend to justify it
               | rather than accept it as valid criticism.
        
               | jltsiren wrote:
               | A weighted average can be very different from the
               | unweighted average.
               | 
               | In our current society, children can benefit from the
               | wealth and social connections of their parents. That
               | gives the needs of some people additional weight in the
               | market without any actual merit. To get rid of that
               | market distortion, children would have to be raised
               | collectively without any contact to their parents.
               | 
               | There is a lot of wealth that has been created with
               | business practices that later became illegal. Because we
               | prefer not to punish people for actions that were legal
               | at the time, we let people keep that wealth. But if we
               | want the market to prioritize the needs of the current
               | society, such wealth would have to be confiscated.
               | 
               | A society where the market actually reflects the needs of
               | the society would be incredibly dystopian.
        
               | weard_beard wrote:
               | AI Overview:
               | 
               | The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has many
               | accomplishments, including: Reducing air pollution The
               | EPA has reduced air pollution by regulating auto
               | emissions, banning pesticides, and cracking down on
               | factory and power plant emissions. New cars are now 99%
               | cleaner than 1970 models, and the EPA's efforts have led
               | to a decrease in smog and asthma cases.
               | 
               | Cleaning up toxic waste The EPA has cleaned up toxic
               | waste through the Comprehensive Environmental Response,
               | Compensation, and Liability Act (Superfund), which
               | provides funding for cleaning up abandoned waste dumps.
               | Protecting the ozone layer The EPA has protected the
               | ozone layer by reauthorizing the Clean Air Act in 1990 to
               | phase out chemicals that deplete it.
               | 
               | Increasing recycling The EPA has increased recycling.
               | Revitalizing brownfields The EPA has revitalized
               | brownfields, which has led to increased property values,
               | reduced impervious surface expansion, and reduced
               | residential VMT.
               | 
               | Reducing water use The EPA's WaterSense program has
               | helped Americans save water, with a cumulative savings of
               | 8.7 trillion gallons as of the end of 2023. Banning
               | cancer-causing pesticides The EPA has banned or
               | restricted many cancer-causing pesticides, including
               | heptachlor, chlordane, EDB, daminozide, and chlorpyrifos.
               | 
               | Testing schools for asbestos The EPA required all primary
               | and secondary schools to be tested for asbestos starting
               | in 1982.
               | 
               | Rating energy efficiency of appliances The EPA introduced
               | the Energy Star program in 1992 to rate the energy
               | efficiency of household appliances. EPA History:
               | Documents about Agency Accomplishments | US EPA Nov 17,
               | 2023
               | 
               | Generative AI is experimental.
        
             | gtvwill wrote:
             | Markets are neither open nor free, they are closed and
             | regulated. So yes, block their purchasing, tell them to
             | sort their own. Here's the thing, do you cut off one
             | customer when supply is tight or do you risk political
             | suicide by kicking the bucket to millions of small
             | customers? Power utility companies will kick one customer,
             | if they don't they will lose their social license to
             | operate and get legislated out of business.
        
           | burningChrome wrote:
           | I would say the same is true for crypto miners and their
           | increasing need for increasing kilowatt power to solve their
           | algo's.
        
           | fnordpiglet wrote:
           | Banks have an obvious solution as do grids. Build their
           | reserves and infrastructure and scale to their biggest
           | customers. A stressed scale out system just requires more
           | scaling. It feels weird to say any other solution, especially
           | when the customer is a paying customer.
        
             | atoav wrote:
             | It only feels weird if you consider paying customers
             | getting what they want has to be of the highest priority.
             | 
             | Others who are regular readers of IPCC publications might
             | value the survival of big parts of earths habitable zones
             | and the most densly populated costal areas higher. But
             | priorities differ.
        
           | parsimo2010 wrote:
           | I think many people read my statement and flipped who I
           | thought the banks vs customers are. If you owe the bank $2
           | billion, that's their problem- meaning they are exposed and
           | could fail if they don't negotiate to cover that exposure. If
           | an AI company needs a bunch of power and can't compute
           | without it, then they are exposed and need to negotiate to
           | make sure the power companies can supply it- they are no
           | longer regular customers.
           | 
           | In my thought process, an analogous statement might be, "if
           | you ask for 10 kilowatts from the power company, that's the
           | power company's problem. If you ask for 10 megawatts, that's
           | your problem. If you (an AI company) ask for a historic
           | amount of power and your business fails if you don't get it,
           | then it's your responsibility to ensure the grid can supply
           | that much power.
        
             | LeafItAlone wrote:
             | > I think many people read my statement and flipped who I
             | thought the banks vs customers are.
             | 
             | Frankly, that's because your analogy is not great. Feels
             | shoehorned in. And then you didn't do a good job in your
             | original post to clarify.
        
           | ginko wrote:
           | But what if I want to ask chatgpt how to conserve power
           | during a potential blackout?
        
         | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
         | I think you might misunderstand your analogy. If you owe the
         | bank two billion dollars it's their problem because a missing 2
         | billion dollars is large enough to be painful for the bank.
        
           | 7952 wrote:
           | And the bank stands to lose far more money than the company
           | they have lent to who will just fold.
           | 
           | In renewable energy it is actually common for the funding
           | institutions to be paid a cut of the profits and to have no
           | recourse to repossess assets. They take all the risk because
           | they provide all the funding. The job of the actual developer
           | is to provide a project worth funding.
        
       | OutOfHere wrote:
       | And it will go from 9% to 90% over the century. Big tech
       | companies might as well avoid the middleman and evolve into the
       | power generation business, although it's not hard with an open
       | design of a solar farm in the desert.
        
         | goda90 wrote:
         | Unless we come up with newer more efficient algorithms and
         | specialized hardware for implementing AI.
        
           | talldayo wrote:
           | _glances at Bitcoin mining ASICs_
           | 
           | Any day, now.
        
             | jncfhnb wrote:
             | Bitcoin is definitionally inefficient to mine. That's the
             | whole point.
        
               | talldayo wrote:
               | The point is that difficulty is adjusted in accordance
               | with network saturation to prevent a 51% attack. The
               | network is not inherently inefficient unless you're
               | attempting to monopolize it - you are still rewarded for
               | using more efficient mining methods than your
               | competitors.
               | 
               | Which leads us to the GPUs. For a while everyone said
               | ASICs (and the courageous ones, FPGAs) were the future of
               | mining because they were inherently more efficient than
               | GPU hardware could ever be. But it turns out that it's
               | the other way around - mass-manufactured GPUs have access
               | to more efficient silicon than any FPGA on the market
               | could hope for. Similarly, AI chips that want to beat
               | Nvidia on efficiency terms first have to climb a mountain
               | of power usage that is inherent to their exponentially
               | less-dense hardware.
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | Giant buildings in the desert with solar cells on top. No need
         | for distribution lines. How many people are actually necessary
         | to staff one once it is up and running? Bury the building with
         | the desert soil for insulation.
        
           | qeternity wrote:
           | I think you massively overestimate the generation capacity of
           | a PV cell. If you cover all the surface area of a datacenter
           | with PV cells, it will generate a small fraction of the power
           | required.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | I didn't illustrate the thought clearly. I didn't mean that
             | the building's roof would be the only source of PV cells.
             | The solar farm could grow all around the data center, but
             | the roof would not need be a hole in the farm.
        
           | OutOfHere wrote:
           | Your idea could perhaps work only in space, a bit closer to
           | the sun, operating at peak power generation 24x7. On the
           | ground it takes a lot more area in panels than is used by a
           | datacenter.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | Okay, so have AI build a nuclear plant in the desert so
             | when they run it at 115% on the reactor, it's in the desert
             | away from people. It's not like they'd be concerned about
             | downwinders. Put the plant and the data center right next
             | to each other again to avoid distribution lines. If they
             | want power, make them figure it out. It should not _EVER_
             | mean that normies have to sacrifice because AI wants
        
       | jeffbee wrote:
       | 100 years ago was there this much bad-faith handwringing about
       | all the new roads they needed?
        
         | Cupertino95014 wrote:
         | You could go on newspapers.com (free for 7 days) and look at
         | those old papers. I know that the Transcontinental Railroad was
         | intensely controversial.
         | 
         | What's "bad-faith" about it?
        
           | qeternity wrote:
           | OP is saying the opposite: the TCR required huge investment,
           | and was massively speculative, with a huge bubble ensuing.
           | But rail travel did revolutionize the world, and few people
           | sat around asking whether or not it was worth it.
        
             | Cupertino95014 wrote:
             | TCR could have been justified by everyone having massive
             | faith in the future, as OP is suggesting happened with
             | roads. But you're quite wrong that "few people sat around
             | asking whether or not it was worth it", as _Iron Empires_
             | details:
             | 
             | https://www.amazon.com/Iron-Empires-Robber-Railroads-
             | America...
             | 
             | it was hugely controversial in Congress.
             | 
             | I don't happen to know about roads, since that wasn't one
             | single thing. But I doubt they happened because of blind
             | faith in the future, either -- it was probably more
             | businesses demanding roads NOW. So the argument that no one
             | questioned them is dubious at best.
        
         | quantified wrote:
         | What do mean by "they"? EDIT: who do you mean by "they"?
         | (Rephrasing since some readers don't get that intent of the
         | original question.) The handful of corporations interested in
         | transport? Roads were a broad-based need. Roads have been
         | built, used, maintained for thousands of years. The interstate
         | highway system came from a government initiative, if there was
         | a "they" it was broad-based enough to be "us". Railroads served
         | needs that had existed for a long time and it was very clear
         | what their use was from the time they were conceived, and there
         | were more than a handful of participants in the movement of
         | goods and people, since producers wanted greater reach and
         | consumers wanted better access. By contrast to the very small
         | number of "they" asking for more elecricity for data centers.
         | How many people involved in the discussion are asking for the
         | AI companies to be getting this juice?
        
           | jeffbee wrote:
           | "They" is a third-person pronoun in English. It refers, in
           | many cases, to a plurality of subjects, often people, not
           | including the speaker. If the speaker is included then it
           | would have been "we" instead, but in this case I was not
           | alive 100 years ago so I use "they" instead of "we".
           | 
           | Hope that helped. Best of luck learning English!
        
         | raldi wrote:
         | Can you believe these "mammals", burning energy around the
         | clock to keep their blood warm all the time?
        
       | sapphicsnail wrote:
       | Are these AI companies already profitable or is it speculation
       | that's causing them to get a ton of funding? AI is such a
       | polarizing subject and I find it difficult to sift through all
       | the hype and hate surrounding it.
        
         | Prbeek wrote:
         | They generated a whooping three billion dollars last year.
        
           | lolinder wrote:
           | But what was the cost of producing that revenue? At what
           | point do they expect to break even on their investment?
           | 
           | I can very quickly generate a lot of revenue if my investors
           | will let me buy eggs at $0.50 each and resell them for $0.05,
           | but I don't think I'd get any bites unless I could explain
           | how that enterprise will eventually turn a profit.
        
             | Mistletoe wrote:
             | In 2021, SoftBank is very interested in your egg selling
             | company.
        
               | stavros wrote:
               | After all, you can't make an omelet without breaking the
               | bank on some eggs.
        
               | BoorishBears wrote:
               | If you can find a way to sell billions of dollars of
               | eggs, even at a loss, people will invest. At scale you
               | can increase the price of eggs, make the eggs cheaper,
               | etc. Obviously the fact your eggs are artificially cheap
               | is helping you sell them, but that won't be all there is
               | to you as a seller.
               | 
               | People underestimate how hard it is to sell things: you
               | could have the cure to cancer in your hands today and
               | still need to lose mllions to get anywhere with it.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | But this is what the food delivery companies were (are?)
             | doing. This is what Uber is doing. This is pretty much what
             | every VC funded company does. They burn through the
             | investors' money (because who cares it's not their personal
             | money) until they get a foothold.
        
               | lolinder wrote:
               | That's what they _were_ doing when money was free. Money
               | is no longer free, unless you 're an AI company.
        
               | qeternity wrote:
               | > They burn through the investors' money (because who
               | cares its not their personal money) until they get a
               | foothold.
               | 
               | Otherwise known as investing. Sometimes it works.
               | Sometimes it doesn't. And the last 20 years has been
               | chockfull of excesses absolutely. But Uber is profitable
               | these days, and has genuinely transformed how people get
               | around. It looked like a negative unit margin dog until
               | it didn't.
        
               | 1986 wrote:
               | Otherwise known as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dumping_
               | %28pricing_policy%29
        
             | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
             | it does seem very likely that $ per token of inference (at
             | fixed quality) will continue to go down rapidly as hardware
             | and software continues to improve.
        
             | rodgerd wrote:
             | It's better than that, OpenAI are stealing the eggs and
             | lobbying to make egg theft legal, so long as you only steal
             | eggs from small farmers and back yards. Because they can,
             | by their own admission, never stay in business if they have
             | to pay for the eggs.
        
           | mikeocool wrote:
           | OpenAI is expecting $3.7 billion in revenue this year, and is
           | going to lose $5 billion, according to this article:
           | https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-
           | chatgpt...
           | 
           | So they are currently printing 1 dollar bills at a cost of
           | $2.35 each.
        
             | p1necone wrote:
             | Losing money on every transaction, but making it up with
             | scale!
        
               | Mistletoe wrote:
               | Cosmo Kramer: It's a write-off for them.
               | 
               | Jerry: How is it a write-off?
               | 
               | Cosmo Kramer: They just write it off.
               | 
               | Jerry: Write it off what?
               | 
               | Cosmo Kramer: Jerry, all these big companies, they write
               | off everything.
               | 
               | Jerry: You don't even know what a write-off is.
               | 
               | Cosmo Kramer: Do you?
               | 
               | Jerry: No, I don't.
               | 
               | Cosmo Kramer: But they do. And they're the ones writing
               | it off.
        
             | qeternity wrote:
             | Point to one single transformative invention that was
             | accretive from day one. The ChatGPT moment isn't even two
             | years old. I don't know for certain whether any of these
             | investments are going to work out, but all of the current
             | cash burn is forward looking. It may all come crashing
             | down, but this is not the right analysis.
        
               | mikeocool wrote:
               | This certainly the model that basically all VC funded
               | tech companies use. Though OpenAI is notable, because I
               | don't think we've seen another company burn this much
               | money this fast.
               | 
               | Not a value statement on whether is this is right or
               | wrong.
        
               | qeternity wrote:
               | This predates modern VC by centuries. Early trade routes
               | which connected humanity across continents were highly
               | speculative, requiring huge amounts of capital, and were
               | only profitable years later.
        
               | Maxamillion96 wrote:
               | That's wrong. A single load of pepper was enough to pay
               | for the successful voyage and multiple lost ships.
        
               | qeternity wrote:
               | Yes, that single load took years. It required huge
               | amounts of speculative capital, years of fruitless
               | exploration, and as you say, multiple failed expeditions
               | before it succeeded.
               | 
               | That is my point.
        
               | Maxamillion96 wrote:
               | all inventions are accretive from day one, in the
               | majority of historical bubbles the speculation was built
               | on top of already profitable technologies but there was
               | always one or two firms that were profitable to begin
               | with. Modern bubbles (AI, Metaverse,Crypto) are
               | speculative from the word go, there isn't a single
               | company that's profitable in those verticals.
        
             | treis wrote:
             | That's not right. They're paying $2.35 to get a $1 per year
             | revenue stream.
        
       | idunnoman1222 wrote:
       | It is the first meaningful demand growth this century for the
       | electricity industry
       | 
       | How is this bad? Are the utilities just lazy?
        
         | jsnell wrote:
         | But that's what the article is about.
         | 
         | The utilities are being asked to make massive speculative
         | investments in transmission infrastructure, but are dubious
         | that the demand will actually be there when those projects
         | finish in half a decade, and they'll be left holding the bag.
        
           | kazen44 wrote:
           | Also, infrastructure investment has a very long return on
           | investment. (power plants for instance need to run decades to
           | make back their profits, especially nuclear power plants.
           | 
           | Other forms of energy generation come and massive ecological
           | costs. Are we really prepared to spend this much energy on a
           | speculative technology? especially when it is destroying the
           | planet while doing so?
        
             | whimsicalism wrote:
             | we should already be spending a ton on renewables and
             | transmission capacity.
             | 
             | this is a good way to ensure emissions become sustainable
        
           | qeternity wrote:
           | This is why long term offtakes exist. The customer can prove
           | their conviction and share in the risk. Extremely
           | commonplace.
        
             | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
             | that doesn't help too much if the utilities expect the
             | companies to be around in 10 years
        
         | cr__ wrote:
         | > How is this bad?
         | 
         | The power is being used wastefully.
        
       | neonate wrote:
       | https://archive.ph/rS3ze
        
       | flanked-evergl wrote:
       | The west needs to get over nimbyism and build infrastructure
       | again. It's frankly embarrassing how much the west has crippled
       | itself and then exported manufacturing to counties with much less
       | regulation.
        
         | wpm wrote:
         | It's an easy thought to have. I live in one of the US's larger
         | metro areas in a leafy, former streetcar suburb then annexed,
         | neighborhood. Near me, just down the street, is an old
         | industrial plot that supplies materials and tools for other
         | industrial uses. Their trucks are large. Their lots are small.
         | Each day is a dance of large flatbeds loading up for the next
         | day, moving in and out of the lots, and other customers and
         | their large flatbeds coming to stock up. Many leave by driving
         | down the street in front of my house.
         | 
         | Is it annoying? Yes. Their trucks are heavy enough to shake the
         | house when they go over a bump. They are loud as hell too. [1]
         | 
         | Do I want to shut the company down? Of course not. They are my
         | neighbors, for better or for worse. I have to try to make the
         | relationship work. They employ dozens of people and make it so
         | other companies can build things easier in my city.
         | 
         | The instinct, however, is to think "I wish they would f** off
         | with their big dumb trucks and their blocking traffic and their
         | dangerous blahblahblah. I'm fine with industrial supply
         | companies, but not in my backyard!". It takes an effort to stop
         | yourself and remember to recognize their value. I could lose my
         | job tomorrow, and maybe walk down the street and ask them if
         | they need another set of hands moving gas cylinders around. I
         | might one day need their services, or need the services of
         | someone who needs theirs.
         | 
         | 1. I wish the federal government would regulate the amount of
         | noise pollution coming off some of these vehicles, yes, but
         | that isn't a local issue.
        
       | WheelsAtLarge wrote:
       | I believe that chips will get more efficient as they get tuned
       | towards AI needs. Also, energy costs will continue to fall as
       | they have for thousands of years. Think about this, at one time
       | we would have to put a lot of wood or animal matter to get enough
       | energy for a few hours of light at night. Now it takes very few
       | resources to get enough light for a whole night. It's so
       | relatively inexpensive that we can light an area all night
       | without having to think twice about the cost.
       | 
       | Energy will get so inexpensive in a few years (10?) from now that
       | power consumption by AI will not be a problem.
        
         | hoosieree wrote:
         | Heard of the Jevons paradox?
        
         | quonn wrote:
         | > Energy will get so inexpensive in a few years (10?)
         | 
         | Any evidence for that? I predict the exact opposite. The price
         | of energy will rise.
        
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