[HN Gopher] Kitchen staff were canaries in the coal mine (2022)
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       Kitchen staff were canaries in the coal mine (2022)
        
       Author : toomuchtodo
       Score  : 58 points
       Date   : 2024-09-27 20:21 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (economistwritingeveryday.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (economistwritingeveryday.com)
        
       | toomuchtodo wrote:
       | Related:
       | 
       |  _Bad service is a sign of a better world_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41674275 - Sept 2024
       | 
       | (referenced and written by blog author in post above)
        
       | paulcole wrote:
       | > If the daily threads at on r/nursing subreddit are even mildly
       | representative, the status quo in nursing is unsustainable
       | 
       | Call me a skeptic but every career subreddit is dominated by the
       | whiniest complainers imaginable (easily lapping even the HN
       | commenters who froth at the mouth at the thought of RTO).
       | 
       | Using this as a key point of an article seems flimsy at best.
       | 
       | > Personally, I'm betting on two out of the three, but I'm not
       | telling you which two.
       | 
       | Also lol at this.
        
         | toomuchtodo wrote:
         | "US nursing crisis" are the search keywords you will want to
         | use.
         | 
         | https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/4304685-americas-nurs...
         | 
         | https://www.axios.com/2024/06/07/health-care-worker-shortage...
         | 
         | https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle...
         | 
         | https://www.aacnnursing.org/news-data/fact-sheets/nursing-sh...
         | 
         | https://www.aha.org/news/headline/2023-04-13-study-projects-...
         | 
         | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK493175/
        
         | vundercind wrote:
         | The teaching trend is very, very real. Public schools are in
         | crisis due to the dual shocks of Covid and inflation (which
         | came on top of years of underinvestment and declining quality
         | of the work environment, so the whole thing was already
         | teetering before that shove) and nobody's even talking about
         | spending what it'll take to fix them. The low-COL-adjusted-comp
         | areas are worst-hit, but a marked decline in quality is in
         | store for the whole sector, largely due to staff shortages and
         | an associated, unavoidable decline in average quality.
        
           | tmpz22 wrote:
           | You post problems in addition to COVID and Inflation but you
           | barely scratch the surface. No Child Left Behind, School
           | vouchers, defunding public colleges, the list goes on and on
           | and on as to how we've been chipping away at education.
        
             | vundercind wrote:
             | Yep, you're spot-on. The sector'd been taking a pummeling
             | for years and years, that was just the final one-two punch
             | (and a doozy, at that). If there's a third thing, it's the
             | renewed and persistent negative political attention on
             | schools from the right over the last eight years.
        
           | slt2021 wrote:
           | Could private school vouchers and magnet schools fix it?
           | 
           | I feel like a lot of problems with teaching is due to
           | overregulation from department of education and increasing
           | scope bloat of their responsibilities.
           | 
           | Just stick to mass daycare with curriculum model and allow
           | free competition from private sector and it should be fine.
           | 
           | The best compensated teachers are the ones that achieve
           | results: train champions and elevate students to their
           | highest potential.
           | 
           | Its not going to happen at public school
        
             | Jtsummers wrote:
             | Magnet schools are public schools, but usually with more
             | motivated students or involved parents. The more motivated
             | students part can help, it's more enjoyable to go to work
             | teaching when most of the class wants to be there.
        
             | jghn wrote:
             | > Could private school vouchers
             | 
             | Ask Arizona how it is going [1]
             | 
             | [1] https://www.propublica.org/article/arizona-school-
             | vouchers-b...
        
               | Terr_ wrote:
               | "To open our meeting, good news: This year we managed to
               | direct a ton of public tax dollars towards our favorite
               | private entities and churches, and the budget shortfall
               | gives us an excuse to strangle other safety-net programs
               | we already didn't like!" /s
               | 
               | As a note for non-US folks, individual states cannot
               | print currency the same way the federal government can,
               | so budget shortfalls on that level are a lot more
               | immediate and impactful.
        
               | diddid wrote:
               | It was an interesting read, but it only says how much
               | they spend on school vouchers. I didn't see a spend for
               | the standard public schools. They said the average
               | voucher was 7k which is almost for sure lower than what
               | public school is charging per student. Maybe they just
               | need to add an income requirement to it and if you make
               | too much no voucher.
        
               | Jtsummers wrote:
               | https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-
               | releases/2024/public-s...
               | 
               | ~$10k, so yes the voucher is less than what the public
               | school students are getting (directly from their teachers
               | and indirectly through other school services and
               | faculty).
        
               | slt2021 wrote:
               | I read the article and think that Arizona's problems are
               | not inherent to the voucher system per se, just how they
               | administered it. People found a loophole.
               | 
               | Need to tie closely the money coming out with the voucher
               | and the corresponding decrease in spend on public school
               | system
        
             | panzagl wrote:
             | Private schools (and charters) usually pay worse than
             | public schools.
        
               | slt2021 wrote:
               | private schools face fierce competition and immediate
               | feedback loop from parents.
               | 
               | public school system is not accountable at all to
               | parents.
               | 
               | this makes sure that interest of school and parents and
               | kids are aligned and no political bs coming from above
               | like DoE
        
             | jgeada wrote:
             | Private school vouchers are the worst idea ever.
             | 
             | How's removing yet more funding for public schools supposed
             | to be an answer to public schools don't have enough
             | funding?
             | 
             | As the funny paraphrasing goes
             | (https://x.com/teedjvt/status/1685251077753430016) "I don't
             | really like the city parks. I want to join a country club
             | so my kid doesn't have to play with 'those' kids and I want
             | the city parks system to pay for my membership"
        
               | slt2021 wrote:
               | public school system is full of grift, politically
               | appointed and allocated resources, and zero
               | accountability.
               | 
               | if you face inefficient system that cannot manage
               | resources - you cannot pour more resources and expect
               | better results.
               | 
               | as a proof you can look at Chicago, DC and Baltimore
               | school systems that have the highest per capita spend and
               | the lowest academic achievement metrics.
               | 
               | we just need to provide parents an option to opt-out of
               | crooked system
        
           | diddid wrote:
           | I think the lack of quality is not being driven at the
           | individual teacher level and isn't related to covid at all.
           | Covid made the issues that already existed visible. Removing
           | AP classes and charter schools, graduating kids missing
           | credits, downplaying test results, and failing to properly
           | address poor student behavior are all usually made at the
           | district level. I don't think increased funding would change
           | any of that and I think a lot of good teachers would still
           | quit.
        
             | slt2021 wrote:
             | the highest per student spend is at the most failing and
             | underperforming school systems: Chicago, DC, Baltimore -
             | and they haven't showed a trend to improve at all and keep
             | demanding more and more resources
        
           | MostlyStable wrote:
           | Honest question: what is the appropriate level of investment?
           | According to the national center for education statistics [0]
           | Spending per pupil went up 13% from 2010 to 2021 _after_
           | accounting for inflation, so that 's a real increase of 13%,
           | not a nominal increase. And 80% of those dollars are going to
           | staff.
           | 
           | I'll admit that I'm anything but an expert, but a real
           | increase in spending of 13% across a decade does not sound
           | like years of underinvestment. I'm happy to be educated on
           | this topic, but from an outsider perspective, it just doesn't
           | seem like the issue.
           | 
           | [0] https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cmb
        
         | mschuster91 wrote:
         | > Using this as a key point of your article seems flimsy at
         | best.
         | 
         | For nursing... just ask literally _any_ nurse and they 'll chew
         | your ear off. I happen to know some via local volunteer
         | emergency service work and they're _all_ on the verge of
         | burning out, only staying in because they don 't want to leave
         | their patients and colleagues.
        
         | dividefuel wrote:
         | There seems to be a broad understanding among those in these
         | fields that these jobs just keep getting worse, and so people
         | are quitting. They may be getting worse for different reasons
         | (worse conditions, less satisfaction, declining pay, more
         | qualifications needed, etc etc), but there's a net sense of
         | dissatisfaction. For people new to the job, there's usually an
         | initial shock that the job is so far removed from its mission
         | that there's no personal satisfaction, and they ultimately
         | leave.
        
       | im3w1l wrote:
       | (2022)
        
       | trynumber9 wrote:
       | Labor shortages in nursing, cooks, and teachers. But unemployment
       | increasing since 2022. Sounds like it might work itself out?
        
         | behringer wrote:
         | you'd have to be a complete idiot (or love the craft so much
         | you don't care what it costs you) to go to school for nursing
         | or teaching in the US. Now chef'ing, that's not a half bad idea
         | :)
        
         | mschuster91 wrote:
         | > But unemployment increasing since 2022. Sounds like it might
         | work itself out?
         | 
         | No. Partially because these are high stress jobs and not
         | everyone is willing to take them - and honestly, no one
         | _should_ become a nurse or a teacher if they don 't want to,
         | because the damage potential is so high, partially because
         | becoming a teacher takes _a lot_ of study and in the US it
         | carries the non-insignificant chance of getting shot.
        
       | behringer wrote:
       | And yet school administration and hospital administration are
       | making more money than ever. There's no labor shortage, there's a
       | pay shortage.
        
         | Workaccount2 wrote:
         | Really there is just a housing shortage. Every road of
         | struggling lower/middle class finances leads back to housing
         | being outrageously expensive. All these other costs/wages are
         | in mostly functional and liquid markets. They are being
         | priced/valued more or less correctly.
         | 
         | Except housing. It's artificially choked to bolster home values
         | by home owners.
        
           | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
           | Teachers and nurses still don't get paid enough even in cheap
           | places, where housing is extremely affordable like Detroit,
           | Cleveland, all of Mississippi, etc.
           | 
           | So maybe it's a bigger problem in HCOL areas like California,
           | but it's a problem everywhere.
           | 
           | The problem is, in the last ~20 years we went from ~7% of the
           | population being retired to ~20%. Over the next 10 years,
           | it's going to get close to ~30%.
        
           | dividefuel wrote:
           | I can't imagine that nursing's problems are just
           | fundamentally housing. Tracing back rough work schedules,
           | unreasonable administration expectations, and hostile
           | patients to housing costs feels like a stretch.
        
         | cogman10 wrote:
         | Pay is part of the problem, but also prioritizing profit margin
         | above all else.
         | 
         | The fundamental problem is if you understaff and overwork your
         | employees, you make more money. The actual drop in quality for
         | the service doesn't degrade enough to stop people from using
         | it.
         | 
         | This is why hospitals are horror stories of nurses/doctors
         | working 60+ hour weeks with no vacation and managing a huge
         | patient load. It's because admin has found that even if you
         | don't have enough nurses, that just means 1 or 2 patients
         | suffer or wait in line for longer. Perhaps someone dies, but in
         | the meantime you'll save 10s, 100s of thousands or even
         | millions of dollars over the course of a year.
         | 
         | It's a pay problem, but it's also a staffing problem.
        
         | wffurr wrote:
         | Working conditions too. Pretty bad for nursing and teaching.
        
       | avidiax wrote:
       | People still work in literal coal mines, and their pay is still <
       | $31/hour.
       | 
       | This discussion is about an effect at the margins. The marginal
       | nurse that decides to quit, the low-seniority teacher that is
       | paid less than their peers for the same work.
       | 
       | When the canary dies in a coal mine, everyone is in danger. But
       | when working conditions worsen, only those employees at the
       | margins (close to retirement, low seniority, worse than average
       | assignment) will leave.
       | 
       | The question is whether there is some exponential effect on
       | service from decreasing kitchen/nursing/teaching staff. Those
       | fields all look like they have linear degradation of service to
       | me.
       | 
       | https://www.salaryexpert.com/salary/job/coal-miner/united-st...
        
         | RangerScience wrote:
         | I think the idea with the "canary in a coal mine" isn't that
         | it's the margins that are at risk - it's a signal that those
         | margins have _moved_.
         | 
         | When working conditions worsen, and those at the previous
         | margins leave, does that mean there's now _new_ people in the
         | margins who were "safe" before?
        
         | vundercind wrote:
         | Good high-seniority teachers can walk out of their job and
         | straight into the white-collar office job world for more money
         | and usually less bullshit. Probably even a remote role for
         | extra improvement to QOL. It's _far_ from just new teachers
         | leaving (that's always been a thing).
        
           | pipes wrote:
           | Two siblings who are teachers, and a parent who was a
           | teacher. What sort of white collar work can they get? Only
           | example I can think of is a teacher who left after two years
           | and got a job as a Business analyst at my place of employment
           | (they were in their 20s). I've honestly never seen any other
           | teacher do this. Teachers are very underpaid in the UK, but
           | they do have great job security and pension security. Not to
           | mention amazing holidays. Neither of my siblings would give
           | this up.
        
         | ajb wrote:
         | Good analysis. Not sure I agree that they are all linear in
         | degredation. Anything that serves a queue has superlinear
         | degredation; as the service rate goes over the arrival rate.
         | We've hit that tipping point in the UK and waiting times for
         | access to medical treatment have ballooned; in our case
         | aggravated by the exit of GPs.
         | 
         | Kitchen staff also serve a queue, but I don't think that will
         | have the same effect as people always have the option of eating
         | at home.
        
         | dividefuel wrote:
         | Nursing seems like one where a feedback loop could happen. As
         | others quit, your patient burden increases. The higher your
         | patient burden, the more likely you are to make a mistake.
         | Mistakes are often, as far as I understand, held against the
         | nurse, so you could lose your license. At a certain point, the
         | risk becomes too great and you're better off quitting.
        
           | sofixa wrote:
           | > Nursing seems like one where a feedback loop could happen.
           | As others quit, your patient burden increases. The higher
           | your patient burden, the more likely you are to make a
           | mistake
           | 
           | Or your burden becomes insufferable and you burn out and
           | quit.
        
         | jp57 wrote:
         | If everyone dies when the canary dies, then there wasn't much
         | point in bringing it down there. The canary _is_ at the
         | margins, and thus it dies first when the gas comes. When it
         | dies, everyone else should GTFO, because if the gas gets worse,
         | they 're next.
        
       | jppope wrote:
       | Probably something that can be learned from this information, but
       | I doubt the conclusion the author arrived at is correct.
        
       | k__ wrote:
       | My partner worked as a nurse for almost a decade. In the end they
       | were in psychiatry, most chill job you can get as a nurse if you
       | don't want to go into management. No manual labor, only bringing
       | people their meds and writing down what they did all day. It
       | still sucked. The pay was bad and the night-shifts and constantly
       | covering for sick coworkers took their toll.
       | 
       | In the end they switched to a study assistant job. Better pay and
       | they can work whenever they like, even from home for half of the
       | tasks.
        
       | tqi wrote:
       | > The only solution will be to raise compensation for teachers
       | and bring labor into the industry and, well, the failure to raise
       | teaching salaries is maybe the single greatest of example of the
       | divergence between what people publicly support and what they
       | actually vote for.
       | 
       | It's hard to read sentences like that and wonder "what more do
       | you want?" Yes teachers should get paid more. The average teacher
       | in the SFUSD gets paid ~$84K, which is clearly not enough for the
       | city. But the district has an annual budget of 1.3 billion
       | dollars for less than 50K students. Maybe the district should
       | spend more of the money it already has on teacher salaries
       | instead of wasting money and time on stupid / mismanaged
       | projects[1][2][3].
       | 
       | [1] https://missionlocal.org/2023/12/san-francisco-unified-
       | schoo... [2] https://missionlocal.org/2022/10/firm-awarded-no-
       | bid-contrac... [3]
       | https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/23/arts/design/san-francisco...
        
         | bongodongobob wrote:
         | I wouldn't use SF as a baseline for anything. It's way outside
         | the norm for any metric you could pick. That's $30k/student.
         | Try Oshkosh, WI or something. $13k/student.
        
           | willcipriano wrote:
           | OECD average is 9k.[0]
           | 
           | US spends more per student than everyone else save Luxemburg,
           | Switzerland, Austria and Norway.
           | 
           | [0]https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/pdf/coe_cmd.pdf
        
             | bongodongobob wrote:
             | I don't disagree with that. But as soon as you bring SF or
             | NYC into a discussion about general issues in the US, Im
             | out. Those places are extremely unique outliers and don't
             | represent normal life for the majority of US citizens or
             | cities.
        
               | slt2021 wrote:
               | these places are held captive to internal political
               | clique, regulatory capture, and union
        
       | OgsyedIE wrote:
       | Is there a useful way to separate the effects that wages not
       | keeping up with inflation has on workforce retention has from the
       | effects that customer/student/patient violence towards staff has
       | on workforce retention?
       | 
       | My gut instinct tells me that the latter would be a much bigger
       | driver of resignations but I'm not involved in these industries
       | so maybe the former matters more to them.
        
       | miki123211 wrote:
       | What I find very interesting about the examples here is they
       | cover the whole spectrum of government-managed to free market.
       | 
       | Most teachers are employed by state-owned schools, and as far as
       | I understand, they're very often unionized in the US. Nursing is
       | mostly private but regulated, probably with some mix of non-
       | profits / government thrown in. Restaurants are as free market as
       | it gets, there are both large chains and small restaurants,
       | there's lots of competition, most customers have more than one
       | option, reviews exist and a lot of people are repeat customers,
       | making it hard to overpromise, underdeliver and stay in business.
       | 
       | I don't have the answers as to why this is a problem, but clearly
       | "evil capitalists", "mismanaged government", "underregulation" or
       | "overregulation" are not it.
        
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       (page generated 2024-09-27 23:02 UTC)