[HN Gopher] Old Easter Island genomes show no sign of a populati...
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Old Easter Island genomes show no sign of a population collapse
Author : LinuxBender
Score : 103 points
Date : 2024-09-12 13:05 UTC (9 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (arstechnica.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (arstechnica.com)
| tootie wrote:
| Isn't it a buried lede here that the Native American DNA implies
| they reached South America well before Columbus?
| canjobear wrote:
| Or someone from South America reached them. That finding got
| its due attention a few years ago
| https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2487-2
| foobarian wrote:
| Isn't this fairly well known already?
| timdiggerm wrote:
| It's been pretty suspected for awhile due to the presence of
| sweet potatoes in Polynesia. This, however, gives a range of
| years for when that contact occurred, and that's big.
|
| However, the ecocide theory of Rapa Nui has been so popular
| that, in some ways, finding evidence that that simply did not
| occur is bigger news.
| billbrown wrote:
| There was a satellite analysis of rock gardening earlier this
| summer that also had similar findings.
| https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ado1459
| photochemsyn wrote:
| One of the worst books on this ever written was the very popular
| "Collapse" by Jared Diamond, which entirely neglects the role
| European colonialism played in decimating the island's population
| in favor of a 'they did it to themselves' narrative (which
| apologists for colonialism naturally embraced). The more accurate
| historical narrative looks something like this:
|
| "In December 1862, Peruvian slave traders landed on Easter Island
| and captured approximately 1,500 Rapa Nui people, including much
| of the island's leadership and elite. The raids were brutal, and
| the kidnapped islanders were transported to the guano islands and
| plantations on the Peruvian coast. Of these 1,500 individuals,
| only a small fraction would ever return.Of the roughly 1,500
| people taken, it is estimated that fewer than 100 survived to
| return home. By the mid-19th century, the island's population had
| been reduced to just a few hundred, down from an estimated
| 3,000-4,000 before the raids."
|
| The invention of ammonia synthesis from atmospheric N2 via the
| Haber-Bosch process largely put an end to the guano industy and
| the slave labor that supported it. There's an excellent book,
| "The Alchemy of Air" by Thomas Hager that covers this history
| well:
|
| https://blog.rootsofprogress.org/turning-air-into-bread
| hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
| I am curious if Diamond has ever done an apology for his
| incorrect Easter Island theory in Collapse.
|
| As I understand it, at the time it _was_ a reasonable
| conclusion (though even back then it was still highly
| controversial and lots of scientists disagreed), but in the
| decades since, it 's become obvious this "ecoside" theory is
| wrong, and this latest study puts the nail in the coffin.
|
| So has Diamond ever said "There is new evidence, and I was
| wrong"? Or is he doing that weird thing that humans often do
| where they double down on a now obviously incorrect theory
| because admitting fault is somehow too painful?
| throw4847285 wrote:
| Well doing that would require Jared Diamond to be a serious
| scholar and not a pop historian who cares mostly about
| selling books.
| TeaBrain wrote:
| I don't think there's an issue with being motivated by a
| desire to sell books. Selling poorly supported narrative-
| driven historical fiction as a work of pop history is
| potentially an issue though.
| throw4847285 wrote:
| The problem is one often follows the other. If you're
| economically incentivized not to rethink your premises
| despite mounting evidence that they are wrong, it's hard
| to pivot.
| jcranmer wrote:
| Well, Diamond is still a fervent believer in Clovis-First,
| despite the entire anthropological community having disavowed
| that theory about two decades ago.
| mzs wrote:
| He's responded to criticism rather poorly:
| https://cambridgeblog.org/2010/03/puttin-the-objective-in-
| ob...
| slothtrop wrote:
| Not unlike Graeber.
| vanderZwan wrote:
| What does he have to do with the current discussion?
| circlefavshape wrote:
| He said some reasonable stuff which seems less likely in the
| light of new evidence. What is there to apologise for?
| hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
| Apologize is perhaps the wrong word, thank you.
|
| But has he come out and said "this new evidence means my
| older theories are wrong?" The other comment about his
| review of Questioning Collapse makes me think not, but even
| that was from nearly 15 years ago.
|
| I think it's important that Diamond acknowledge the new
| reality, as he is probably the person most responsible for
| spreading an idea (one that has a lot of implications for
| the present day real world) that turned out to be wrong.
| jcranmer wrote:
| His book was based on theories that were considered shoddy
| when he wrote it, is extremely selective in its evidence at
| best, and he reacts quite poorly to people who criticize
| his ideas on environmental determinism.
| InDubioProRubio wrote:
| Shouldn't it be "turning energy into bread"?
| blueyes wrote:
| The irony is that the same underlying process of technical and
| scientific innovation enabled both the Peruvian slaves traders
| as well as the Haber-Bosch process. But I find it strange that
| we only call one "European", when in fact both were. The
| technium giveth and the technium taketh away.
| circlefavshape wrote:
| > which entirely neglects the role European colonialism played
| in decimating the island's population
|
| Have you read the book? IIRC it does nothing of the sort
| Nicholas_C wrote:
| And then after the slave raiders a Scottish sheep farm was
| established and they confined all the natives to one small area
| (Hanga Roa). The population is now highly mixed and only about
| half the current population are of Polynesian descent. They
| still have a surprising amount of traditions and knowledge
| recorded although the language is at risk of dying out. I
| visited Rapa Nui a few years back and it is an incredible
| place. The locals have been able to mostly resist
| commercialization of the island which I really appreciated.
| There is one "fancy" hotel on the island and the locals have
| put up a bunch of signs in protest[0] which I presume are still
| there today.
|
| [0]
| https://www.google.com/maps/@-27.150356,-109.4396352,3a,75y,...
| stargazer-3 wrote:
| For context, Diamond argues that the collapse occurred around
| 1600, much earlier than the 19th century slaving raids you
| mention. The first European contact occurred around 1720, with
| a 1770 Spanish estimate of 3000 people living on Easter Island.
| Honestly, it's not an outlandish thought that 887 gigantic
| statues were crafted by a larger population.
| anon84873628 wrote:
| The Fall of Civilizations podcast, as usual, did an awesome job
| covering this topic:
| https://youtu.be/7j08gxUcBgc?si=GGZW_hawmTKTULMg
| pipes wrote:
| Found that podcast through hacker news. It really is fantastic.
| arthurofbabylon wrote:
| I remember in school and in old textbooks hearing the question,
| "What happened to the Mayan people? They totally disappeared!"
| and at the same time reading that there are dozens of Mayan
| languages spoken in the Yucatan to this day. I had the impression
| that the subject experts just would not accept the possibility
| that a human civilization might exist that doesn't resemble what
| they had preconceived, as if failing to see the sky because it
| isn't the exact shade of blue they thought it would be.
| codingdave wrote:
| One of the state parks in Utah (I forget which one), has a sign
| that says: "Where did the Ancestral Puebloan people go?" With
| the answer of "We're right here. Come say hi to us at the
| information desk."
| rnoorda wrote:
| I don't know if it's the one you're thinking of, but I
| believe I saw a similar sign at Capitol Reef National Park.
| throw0101b wrote:
| > _" Where did the Ancestral Puebloan people go?" With the
| answer of "We're right here. Come say hi to us at the
| information desk."_
|
| "Where did the Ancient Roman civilization go?"
|
| "They're eating gelato and drinking espresso at the cafe."
| alejohausner wrote:
| There's an episode in "The Sopranos" where Tony confronts a
| jewish man he has cornered:
|
| Ever heard of Massada? For two years, 900 Jews held their
| own against 15,000 Roman soldiers. They chose death before
| enslavement. And the Romans, where are they now?
|
| Tony: You're looking at 'em, asshole.
|
| I always liked that scene. It argues that the mafia think
| of themselves as heirs to the violent Roman empire.
| paleotrope wrote:
| This is where academic writing filters into pop history then
| into the culture and then back to the academics who are like,
| "we never said that"
|
| It's all so entertaining for the pop historians.
| TeaBrain wrote:
| I remember this same thing. I think it is likely that there was
| never just one Mayan civilization, but that these different
| Mayan civilizations may have broadly shared a similar culture.
| dontlikeyoueith wrote:
| That's a bit like saying there's no European civilization,
| just a bunch of different European civilizations sharing a
| broadly similar culture.
|
| Or maybe ancient Greece, with its city-state structure is the
| better comparison.
| AlotOfReading wrote:
| Ancient Greek city states are the favorite analogy of
| mayanists. There's a lot of similarities with the Maya
| polities.
| ericmcer wrote:
| Well it depends how you interpret wiping out a group of people.
| If you were to base it off DNA, then we are still slowly
| working towards wiping out the Neanderthals. If you were to
| base it off "pure" genes (when did the last 100% Neanderthal
| die) then it gets hairier because we have all been mixed so
| thoroughly. It also raises philosophical questions about what a
| "Mayan" person is, like is there a genetic sequence that is
| Mayan? Or is it anyone who lived in that time/place?
| marssaxman wrote:
| The Mayan fellow I met in Cancun last year did not seem to be
| troubled by any such philosophical questions. He is Maya, his
| family is Maya, they have always been Maya; that's his sense
| of identity. There is no Spanish spoken in his village; he
| had to learn it after he arrived in Cancun, looking for work.
| thaumasiotes wrote:
| > I remember in school and in old textbooks hearing the
| question, "What happened to the Mayan people? They totally
| disappeared!" and at the same time reading that there are
| dozens of Mayan languages spoken in the Yucatan to this day.
|
| These aren't technically incompatible; for a better-understood
| example, you can look at Turkey, which speaks the language of
| the long since dead Turks that conquered it without leaving any
| demographic impact. It would be accurate to say that the Turks
| completely disappeared from Turkey, at the same time that the
| region continues to speak Turkic languages.
|
| I think an analogous situation holds in Hungary.
| alephnerd wrote:
| Well, Turkish and Magyar spread because of elite diffusion.
|
| Turkic kingdoms ruled much of Anatolia for over a millennia,
| so Turkic languages spread rapidly due to it's prominence
| among that elite.
|
| Based on genetics, there were only a couple thousand Turkic
| people that lead the initial settlement.
|
| Languages can spread (and die out) rapidly. Look at the
| sinicization of Manchuria in the 19th century.
| jcranmer wrote:
| > I had the impression that the subject experts just would not
| accept the possibility that a human civilization might exist
| that doesn't resemble what they had preconceived
|
| No, the Mayanists are _absolutely adamant_ that the Mayan
| people are right there, living in the same place their
| ancestors lived. Scholars today are some of the most vociferous
| in pointing this fact out.
|
| The problem is the people who write the textbooks, the popular
| science books, the newspaper articles, who generally decline to
| forward this answer to the popular sphere. Those are the people
| who just can't accept the idea that maybe civilization isn't a
| one-way road to greater and greater heights, to no end of
| frustration for the subject matter experts who _know_ that to
| be the case.
| canjobear wrote:
| It's true that Maya are still around today. But there is a
| legitimate big mystery of why their large-scale civilization
| collapsed, well before the arrival of Europeans. I think what
| you heard in school was some kind of telephone-game-like
| corruption of the legitimate question.
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classic_Maya_collapse
| pvaldes wrote:
| Moronic destruction of the ecosystems, followed by endless
| war for the remaining resources. The usual suspects.
|
| People have consistently shoot themselves in the foot with
| droughts after removing the forest for a few generations. Is
| happening right now in several parts of the planet.
| pvaldes wrote:
| > there are dozens of Mayan languages spoken in the Yucatan to
| this day
|
| Both facts can coexist. Mayan people ruled over other several
| smaller cultures. Former slaves adopt the cultural habits of
| their rulers, sometimes for a lot of time after the ruler has
| gone. Afroamericans in USA that descend from slaves still use
| the English, as their language. Think about it.
| csomar wrote:
| The current theory is that civilizations appeared across the
| planet due to climate change. This theory is based on the
| hypothesis that humans pre-1500 didn't have any contact with one
| another.
|
| I've been suspicious of that claim. If the Polynesians came from
| Asia and were able to reach the Americas, it's possible that
| there was latent communication between the two worlds but such
| communication happens at "generational" speeds.
| AlotOfReading wrote:
| People have known about earlier contacts for a long time. Norse
| contact at l'anse aux meadows has been established since the
| late 90s. Trans-bering contact has been known for centuries.
|
| Humans arrived to rapa nui and other Pacific Islands relatively
| late, many thousands of years after the Holocene began.
| Stronger evidence of 13th century contact doesn't change
| anything about our understanding of the early history of the
| Americas.
| saas_sam wrote:
| You're pooh-poohing this idea a bit to harshly IMO. I almost
| wonder if your knowledge here may be out of date. You're
| aware that there's now evidence of the Americas' being
| populated over 20,000 years ago, right? Footprints in White
| Sands and now sloth bone carvings in Brazil. Far earlier than
| the Norse you mention.
| eesmith wrote:
| AlotOfReading pointed out that 'This theory is based on the
| hypothesis that humans pre-1500 didn't have any contact
| with one another.' is not correct by giving examples of how
| humans pre-1500 did have contact with one another.
|
| That there were people and civilizations in the Americas
| before then is far from the point.
| csomar wrote:
| The people from over 20,000 years ago came from the
| northern ice bridge, however. My suggestion is that these
| people got civilization ideas from the Islanders at around
| 1500BC. They didn't get a full line of communication with
| the old world but enough ideas were taken to kick start a
| civilization.
| AlotOfReading wrote:
| Rapa nui (and other Eastern Pacific Islands) hadn't been
| settled yet at that point, while indigenous Americans
| were already building monumental structures (e.g. Norte
| Chico) and working metal (old copper complex). The latter
| predates most metalworking in the old world too.
| csomar wrote:
| Their settling is irrelevant as long as they were able to
| get there. It's possible that they brought the ideas to
| Norte Chico where a civilization developed before them
| settling down.
| jcranmer wrote:
| Norte Chico civilization had collapsed 2000 years before
| Polynesians _started_ their oceanic expansion.
| JumpCrisscross wrote:
| > _people from over 20,000 years ago came from the
| northern ice bridge_
|
| Isn't the latest research strongly implying they came by
| boat?
| ianburrell wrote:
| What "civilization ideas"? How did they get these ideas
| from an uninhabited island? Easter Island wasn't settled
| by Polynesians by at least 300 AD.
|
| There is evidence of contact between Polynesian and South
| America. Like Polynesians having sweet potato. But not
| enough for visible changes of either one.
|
| Civilization doesn't seem to spread by short contact,
| only close contact. Civilization is complex so a few
| ideas aren't enough to spread it. And it is hard for
| culture to accept that much change.
| AlotOfReading wrote:
| I'm aware of them (as any archaeologist remotely interested
| in the early Americas should be), but they're not
| completely established parts of the chronology,
| particularly Santa Elina. People tend to be _extremely_
| conservative on this subject because there 's such a long
| history of scams, pseudoscience, and unintentionally
| misleading results that ended up being false. That results
| in an extremely high standard of evidence sites have to
| meet.
|
| However, that's a wildly different topic than what the
| grandparent comment is talking about. I'm interpreting
| their comment in a charitable light because interpreting it
| more broadly quickly gets into hyperdiffusionism territory.
| darby_nine wrote:
| > If the Polynesians came from Asia and were able to reach the
| Americas
|
| We are certain at this point. The genetic testing is pretty
| conclusive.
| MichaelZuo wrote:
| Can you link the source?
| dylan604 wrote:
| google.com
|
| Polynesians genetic testing
| darby_nine wrote:
| https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2487-2
| wnevets wrote:
| PBS Nova recently had a great episode about the islands and its
| people [1]
|
| [1] https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/easter-island-origins/
| echelon_musk wrote:
| I enjoyed Jago Cooper's/The BBC's 'Easter Island - Mysteries of
| a Lost World'.
|
| However, I'm not sure how current the research is as it first
| aired a decade ago.
|
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cv5YHeJ9CZQ
| pvaldes wrote:
| But we need to remind also that a very fast collapse, would not
| left a trace on the DNA. A Pompeii like event couldn't be
| disclosed just with DNA changes.
| IncreasePosts wrote:
| Are you sure? I thought there were at least two ways to
| estimate population size from DNA: Y chromosome (since it is
| only passed father->son), and mitochondrial DNA(since it is
| only passed mother -> child).
|
| Why wouldn't those show up with a very rapid population
| collapse?
| darby_nine wrote:
| Very fast collapse typically comes with positive evidence of
| this as people leave their lives out in the open, expecting to
| return later. Eg see the Roanoke colony in Virginia.
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