[HN Gopher] Old Easter Island genomes show no sign of a populati...
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       Old Easter Island genomes show no sign of a population collapse
        
       Author : LinuxBender
       Score  : 103 points
       Date   : 2024-09-12 13:05 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (arstechnica.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (arstechnica.com)
        
       | tootie wrote:
       | Isn't it a buried lede here that the Native American DNA implies
       | they reached South America well before Columbus?
        
         | canjobear wrote:
         | Or someone from South America reached them. That finding got
         | its due attention a few years ago
         | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2487-2
        
         | foobarian wrote:
         | Isn't this fairly well known already?
        
         | timdiggerm wrote:
         | It's been pretty suspected for awhile due to the presence of
         | sweet potatoes in Polynesia. This, however, gives a range of
         | years for when that contact occurred, and that's big.
         | 
         | However, the ecocide theory of Rapa Nui has been so popular
         | that, in some ways, finding evidence that that simply did not
         | occur is bigger news.
        
       | billbrown wrote:
       | There was a satellite analysis of rock gardening earlier this
       | summer that also had similar findings.
       | https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ado1459
        
       | photochemsyn wrote:
       | One of the worst books on this ever written was the very popular
       | "Collapse" by Jared Diamond, which entirely neglects the role
       | European colonialism played in decimating the island's population
       | in favor of a 'they did it to themselves' narrative (which
       | apologists for colonialism naturally embraced). The more accurate
       | historical narrative looks something like this:
       | 
       | "In December 1862, Peruvian slave traders landed on Easter Island
       | and captured approximately 1,500 Rapa Nui people, including much
       | of the island's leadership and elite. The raids were brutal, and
       | the kidnapped islanders were transported to the guano islands and
       | plantations on the Peruvian coast. Of these 1,500 individuals,
       | only a small fraction would ever return.Of the roughly 1,500
       | people taken, it is estimated that fewer than 100 survived to
       | return home. By the mid-19th century, the island's population had
       | been reduced to just a few hundred, down from an estimated
       | 3,000-4,000 before the raids."
       | 
       | The invention of ammonia synthesis from atmospheric N2 via the
       | Haber-Bosch process largely put an end to the guano industy and
       | the slave labor that supported it. There's an excellent book,
       | "The Alchemy of Air" by Thomas Hager that covers this history
       | well:
       | 
       | https://blog.rootsofprogress.org/turning-air-into-bread
        
         | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
         | I am curious if Diamond has ever done an apology for his
         | incorrect Easter Island theory in Collapse.
         | 
         | As I understand it, at the time it _was_ a reasonable
         | conclusion (though even back then it was still highly
         | controversial and lots of scientists disagreed), but in the
         | decades since, it 's become obvious this "ecoside" theory is
         | wrong, and this latest study puts the nail in the coffin.
         | 
         | So has Diamond ever said "There is new evidence, and I was
         | wrong"? Or is he doing that weird thing that humans often do
         | where they double down on a now obviously incorrect theory
         | because admitting fault is somehow too painful?
        
           | throw4847285 wrote:
           | Well doing that would require Jared Diamond to be a serious
           | scholar and not a pop historian who cares mostly about
           | selling books.
        
             | TeaBrain wrote:
             | I don't think there's an issue with being motivated by a
             | desire to sell books. Selling poorly supported narrative-
             | driven historical fiction as a work of pop history is
             | potentially an issue though.
        
               | throw4847285 wrote:
               | The problem is one often follows the other. If you're
               | economically incentivized not to rethink your premises
               | despite mounting evidence that they are wrong, it's hard
               | to pivot.
        
           | jcranmer wrote:
           | Well, Diamond is still a fervent believer in Clovis-First,
           | despite the entire anthropological community having disavowed
           | that theory about two decades ago.
        
           | mzs wrote:
           | He's responded to criticism rather poorly:
           | https://cambridgeblog.org/2010/03/puttin-the-objective-in-
           | ob...
        
             | slothtrop wrote:
             | Not unlike Graeber.
        
               | vanderZwan wrote:
               | What does he have to do with the current discussion?
        
           | circlefavshape wrote:
           | He said some reasonable stuff which seems less likely in the
           | light of new evidence. What is there to apologise for?
        
             | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
             | Apologize is perhaps the wrong word, thank you.
             | 
             | But has he come out and said "this new evidence means my
             | older theories are wrong?" The other comment about his
             | review of Questioning Collapse makes me think not, but even
             | that was from nearly 15 years ago.
             | 
             | I think it's important that Diamond acknowledge the new
             | reality, as he is probably the person most responsible for
             | spreading an idea (one that has a lot of implications for
             | the present day real world) that turned out to be wrong.
        
             | jcranmer wrote:
             | His book was based on theories that were considered shoddy
             | when he wrote it, is extremely selective in its evidence at
             | best, and he reacts quite poorly to people who criticize
             | his ideas on environmental determinism.
        
         | InDubioProRubio wrote:
         | Shouldn't it be "turning energy into bread"?
        
         | blueyes wrote:
         | The irony is that the same underlying process of technical and
         | scientific innovation enabled both the Peruvian slaves traders
         | as well as the Haber-Bosch process. But I find it strange that
         | we only call one "European", when in fact both were. The
         | technium giveth and the technium taketh away.
        
         | circlefavshape wrote:
         | > which entirely neglects the role European colonialism played
         | in decimating the island's population
         | 
         | Have you read the book? IIRC it does nothing of the sort
        
         | Nicholas_C wrote:
         | And then after the slave raiders a Scottish sheep farm was
         | established and they confined all the natives to one small area
         | (Hanga Roa). The population is now highly mixed and only about
         | half the current population are of Polynesian descent. They
         | still have a surprising amount of traditions and knowledge
         | recorded although the language is at risk of dying out. I
         | visited Rapa Nui a few years back and it is an incredible
         | place. The locals have been able to mostly resist
         | commercialization of the island which I really appreciated.
         | There is one "fancy" hotel on the island and the locals have
         | put up a bunch of signs in protest[0] which I presume are still
         | there today.
         | 
         | [0]
         | https://www.google.com/maps/@-27.150356,-109.4396352,3a,75y,...
        
         | stargazer-3 wrote:
         | For context, Diamond argues that the collapse occurred around
         | 1600, much earlier than the 19th century slaving raids you
         | mention. The first European contact occurred around 1720, with
         | a 1770 Spanish estimate of 3000 people living on Easter Island.
         | Honestly, it's not an outlandish thought that 887 gigantic
         | statues were crafted by a larger population.
        
       | anon84873628 wrote:
       | The Fall of Civilizations podcast, as usual, did an awesome job
       | covering this topic:
       | https://youtu.be/7j08gxUcBgc?si=GGZW_hawmTKTULMg
        
         | pipes wrote:
         | Found that podcast through hacker news. It really is fantastic.
        
       | arthurofbabylon wrote:
       | I remember in school and in old textbooks hearing the question,
       | "What happened to the Mayan people? They totally disappeared!"
       | and at the same time reading that there are dozens of Mayan
       | languages spoken in the Yucatan to this day. I had the impression
       | that the subject experts just would not accept the possibility
       | that a human civilization might exist that doesn't resemble what
       | they had preconceived, as if failing to see the sky because it
       | isn't the exact shade of blue they thought it would be.
        
         | codingdave wrote:
         | One of the state parks in Utah (I forget which one), has a sign
         | that says: "Where did the Ancestral Puebloan people go?" With
         | the answer of "We're right here. Come say hi to us at the
         | information desk."
        
           | rnoorda wrote:
           | I don't know if it's the one you're thinking of, but I
           | believe I saw a similar sign at Capitol Reef National Park.
        
           | throw0101b wrote:
           | > _" Where did the Ancestral Puebloan people go?" With the
           | answer of "We're right here. Come say hi to us at the
           | information desk."_
           | 
           | "Where did the Ancient Roman civilization go?"
           | 
           | "They're eating gelato and drinking espresso at the cafe."
        
             | alejohausner wrote:
             | There's an episode in "The Sopranos" where Tony confronts a
             | jewish man he has cornered:
             | 
             | Ever heard of Massada? For two years, 900 Jews held their
             | own against 15,000 Roman soldiers. They chose death before
             | enslavement. And the Romans, where are they now?
             | 
             | Tony: You're looking at 'em, asshole.
             | 
             | I always liked that scene. It argues that the mafia think
             | of themselves as heirs to the violent Roman empire.
        
           | paleotrope wrote:
           | This is where academic writing filters into pop history then
           | into the culture and then back to the academics who are like,
           | "we never said that"
           | 
           | It's all so entertaining for the pop historians.
        
         | TeaBrain wrote:
         | I remember this same thing. I think it is likely that there was
         | never just one Mayan civilization, but that these different
         | Mayan civilizations may have broadly shared a similar culture.
        
           | dontlikeyoueith wrote:
           | That's a bit like saying there's no European civilization,
           | just a bunch of different European civilizations sharing a
           | broadly similar culture.
           | 
           | Or maybe ancient Greece, with its city-state structure is the
           | better comparison.
        
             | AlotOfReading wrote:
             | Ancient Greek city states are the favorite analogy of
             | mayanists. There's a lot of similarities with the Maya
             | polities.
        
         | ericmcer wrote:
         | Well it depends how you interpret wiping out a group of people.
         | If you were to base it off DNA, then we are still slowly
         | working towards wiping out the Neanderthals. If you were to
         | base it off "pure" genes (when did the last 100% Neanderthal
         | die) then it gets hairier because we have all been mixed so
         | thoroughly. It also raises philosophical questions about what a
         | "Mayan" person is, like is there a genetic sequence that is
         | Mayan? Or is it anyone who lived in that time/place?
        
           | marssaxman wrote:
           | The Mayan fellow I met in Cancun last year did not seem to be
           | troubled by any such philosophical questions. He is Maya, his
           | family is Maya, they have always been Maya; that's his sense
           | of identity. There is no Spanish spoken in his village; he
           | had to learn it after he arrived in Cancun, looking for work.
        
         | thaumasiotes wrote:
         | > I remember in school and in old textbooks hearing the
         | question, "What happened to the Mayan people? They totally
         | disappeared!" and at the same time reading that there are
         | dozens of Mayan languages spoken in the Yucatan to this day.
         | 
         | These aren't technically incompatible; for a better-understood
         | example, you can look at Turkey, which speaks the language of
         | the long since dead Turks that conquered it without leaving any
         | demographic impact. It would be accurate to say that the Turks
         | completely disappeared from Turkey, at the same time that the
         | region continues to speak Turkic languages.
         | 
         | I think an analogous situation holds in Hungary.
        
           | alephnerd wrote:
           | Well, Turkish and Magyar spread because of elite diffusion.
           | 
           | Turkic kingdoms ruled much of Anatolia for over a millennia,
           | so Turkic languages spread rapidly due to it's prominence
           | among that elite.
           | 
           | Based on genetics, there were only a couple thousand Turkic
           | people that lead the initial settlement.
           | 
           | Languages can spread (and die out) rapidly. Look at the
           | sinicization of Manchuria in the 19th century.
        
         | jcranmer wrote:
         | > I had the impression that the subject experts just would not
         | accept the possibility that a human civilization might exist
         | that doesn't resemble what they had preconceived
         | 
         | No, the Mayanists are _absolutely adamant_ that the Mayan
         | people are right there, living in the same place their
         | ancestors lived. Scholars today are some of the most vociferous
         | in pointing this fact out.
         | 
         | The problem is the people who write the textbooks, the popular
         | science books, the newspaper articles, who generally decline to
         | forward this answer to the popular sphere. Those are the people
         | who just can't accept the idea that maybe civilization isn't a
         | one-way road to greater and greater heights, to no end of
         | frustration for the subject matter experts who _know_ that to
         | be the case.
        
         | canjobear wrote:
         | It's true that Maya are still around today. But there is a
         | legitimate big mystery of why their large-scale civilization
         | collapsed, well before the arrival of Europeans. I think what
         | you heard in school was some kind of telephone-game-like
         | corruption of the legitimate question.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classic_Maya_collapse
        
           | pvaldes wrote:
           | Moronic destruction of the ecosystems, followed by endless
           | war for the remaining resources. The usual suspects.
           | 
           | People have consistently shoot themselves in the foot with
           | droughts after removing the forest for a few generations. Is
           | happening right now in several parts of the planet.
        
         | pvaldes wrote:
         | > there are dozens of Mayan languages spoken in the Yucatan to
         | this day
         | 
         | Both facts can coexist. Mayan people ruled over other several
         | smaller cultures. Former slaves adopt the cultural habits of
         | their rulers, sometimes for a lot of time after the ruler has
         | gone. Afroamericans in USA that descend from slaves still use
         | the English, as their language. Think about it.
        
       | csomar wrote:
       | The current theory is that civilizations appeared across the
       | planet due to climate change. This theory is based on the
       | hypothesis that humans pre-1500 didn't have any contact with one
       | another.
       | 
       | I've been suspicious of that claim. If the Polynesians came from
       | Asia and were able to reach the Americas, it's possible that
       | there was latent communication between the two worlds but such
       | communication happens at "generational" speeds.
        
         | AlotOfReading wrote:
         | People have known about earlier contacts for a long time. Norse
         | contact at l'anse aux meadows has been established since the
         | late 90s. Trans-bering contact has been known for centuries.
         | 
         | Humans arrived to rapa nui and other Pacific Islands relatively
         | late, many thousands of years after the Holocene began.
         | Stronger evidence of 13th century contact doesn't change
         | anything about our understanding of the early history of the
         | Americas.
        
           | saas_sam wrote:
           | You're pooh-poohing this idea a bit to harshly IMO. I almost
           | wonder if your knowledge here may be out of date. You're
           | aware that there's now evidence of the Americas' being
           | populated over 20,000 years ago, right? Footprints in White
           | Sands and now sloth bone carvings in Brazil. Far earlier than
           | the Norse you mention.
        
             | eesmith wrote:
             | AlotOfReading pointed out that 'This theory is based on the
             | hypothesis that humans pre-1500 didn't have any contact
             | with one another.' is not correct by giving examples of how
             | humans pre-1500 did have contact with one another.
             | 
             | That there were people and civilizations in the Americas
             | before then is far from the point.
        
             | csomar wrote:
             | The people from over 20,000 years ago came from the
             | northern ice bridge, however. My suggestion is that these
             | people got civilization ideas from the Islanders at around
             | 1500BC. They didn't get a full line of communication with
             | the old world but enough ideas were taken to kick start a
             | civilization.
        
               | AlotOfReading wrote:
               | Rapa nui (and other Eastern Pacific Islands) hadn't been
               | settled yet at that point, while indigenous Americans
               | were already building monumental structures (e.g. Norte
               | Chico) and working metal (old copper complex). The latter
               | predates most metalworking in the old world too.
        
               | csomar wrote:
               | Their settling is irrelevant as long as they were able to
               | get there. It's possible that they brought the ideas to
               | Norte Chico where a civilization developed before them
               | settling down.
        
               | jcranmer wrote:
               | Norte Chico civilization had collapsed 2000 years before
               | Polynesians _started_ their oceanic expansion.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _people from over 20,000 years ago came from the
               | northern ice bridge_
               | 
               | Isn't the latest research strongly implying they came by
               | boat?
        
               | ianburrell wrote:
               | What "civilization ideas"? How did they get these ideas
               | from an uninhabited island? Easter Island wasn't settled
               | by Polynesians by at least 300 AD.
               | 
               | There is evidence of contact between Polynesian and South
               | America. Like Polynesians having sweet potato. But not
               | enough for visible changes of either one.
               | 
               | Civilization doesn't seem to spread by short contact,
               | only close contact. Civilization is complex so a few
               | ideas aren't enough to spread it. And it is hard for
               | culture to accept that much change.
        
             | AlotOfReading wrote:
             | I'm aware of them (as any archaeologist remotely interested
             | in the early Americas should be), but they're not
             | completely established parts of the chronology,
             | particularly Santa Elina. People tend to be _extremely_
             | conservative on this subject because there 's such a long
             | history of scams, pseudoscience, and unintentionally
             | misleading results that ended up being false. That results
             | in an extremely high standard of evidence sites have to
             | meet.
             | 
             | However, that's a wildly different topic than what the
             | grandparent comment is talking about. I'm interpreting
             | their comment in a charitable light because interpreting it
             | more broadly quickly gets into hyperdiffusionism territory.
        
         | darby_nine wrote:
         | > If the Polynesians came from Asia and were able to reach the
         | Americas
         | 
         | We are certain at this point. The genetic testing is pretty
         | conclusive.
        
           | MichaelZuo wrote:
           | Can you link the source?
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | google.com
             | 
             | Polynesians genetic testing
        
             | darby_nine wrote:
             | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2487-2
        
       | wnevets wrote:
       | PBS Nova recently had a great episode about the islands and its
       | people [1]
       | 
       | [1] https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/easter-island-origins/
        
         | echelon_musk wrote:
         | I enjoyed Jago Cooper's/The BBC's 'Easter Island - Mysteries of
         | a Lost World'.
         | 
         | However, I'm not sure how current the research is as it first
         | aired a decade ago.
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cv5YHeJ9CZQ
        
       | pvaldes wrote:
       | But we need to remind also that a very fast collapse, would not
       | left a trace on the DNA. A Pompeii like event couldn't be
       | disclosed just with DNA changes.
        
         | IncreasePosts wrote:
         | Are you sure? I thought there were at least two ways to
         | estimate population size from DNA: Y chromosome (since it is
         | only passed father->son), and mitochondrial DNA(since it is
         | only passed mother -> child).
         | 
         | Why wouldn't those show up with a very rapid population
         | collapse?
        
         | darby_nine wrote:
         | Very fast collapse typically comes with positive evidence of
         | this as people leave their lives out in the open, expecting to
         | return later. Eg see the Roanoke colony in Virginia.
        
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