[HN Gopher] Chai-1: Decoding the molecular interactions of life
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Chai-1: Decoding the molecular interactions of life
        
       Author : glowingvoices
       Score  : 263 points
       Date   : 2024-09-10 22:13 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.chaidiscovery.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.chaidiscovery.com)
        
       | throwup238 wrote:
       | How hard would it be for a biohacker to use these models to
       | develop novel proteins? Let's say I wanted to take GFP and create
       | another color fluorescent or something.
        
         | glowingvoices wrote:
         | I don't think it'd be too difficult. Train a PLM to generate
         | proteins, validate with AF3, and send them off to a lab. You
         | might want to read the ESM-3 paper if you're interested in
         | stuff like this (not affiliated in any way).
        
       | zan2434 wrote:
       | This is both awesome and feels very dangerous to release
       | publicly, no? Can't this be used to discover novel bioweapons as
       | easily as it can be used to discover new medicines?
       | 
       | Genuinely curious, would love to learn if that isn't true / or is
       | generally just not that big of a deal compared to other risks.
        
         | taspeotis wrote:
         | This is as unethical as that time JVC released VHS which
         | allowed people to record videos but also pirate content!!1
        
           | zan2434 wrote:
           | Clear snark aside, content piracy has pretty bounded risks so
           | isn't a reasonable comparison
        
           | mmmore wrote:
           | You'd have to work at the RIAA to think that piracy and
           | bioweapons are comparable.
           | 
           | I don't know how much releasing this model is a delta on
           | safety, but we certainly need to do a better job of vetting
           | who can order viruses; my understanding is there's very
           | little restrictions right now. This will become more
           | important as models get more capable.
        
         | IncreasePosts wrote:
         | The saving grace of civilization is that, for the most part,
         | terrorists are dumb.
        
           | mmmore wrote:
           | Unfortunately this is not always true. For example, one of
           | the architects of the Tokyo subway sarin attacks[1], Masami
           | Tsuchiya[2], had a masters in physical and organic chemistry.
           | 
           | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_subway_sarin_attack
           | 
           | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masami_Tsuchiya_(terrorist)
        
             | pfisherman wrote:
             | There is a big gap between a master's and a PhD, and then
             | another between a PhD and a seasoned pro. To do something
             | like a bioweapon, you would need a reasonably sized team of
             | pros w/ a lot of capital intensive infrastructure. It would
             | be virtually impossible to do in secret.
        
             | IncreasePosts wrote:
             | Yes, a lot of terrorists have engineering degrees also.
             | 
             | But they're also dumb, which is why they think terrorizing
             | random people will positively I prove the world in some
             | direction they care about.
             | 
             | I won't go into details, but I think if I had 19 dudes with
             | a death wish in America, and a few million dollars, I could
             | do something far worse than 9/11.
        
               | sudosysgen wrote:
               | The goal of an attack like 9/11 isn't really to kill the
               | maximum number of civilians in order to terrorize random
               | people.
               | 
               | The attack had a significant degree of symbolism. The
               | intended audience was twofold: the Western public and
               | leadership, with a durable message that they weren't
               | untouchable (hence the attacks on the Pentagon and
               | attempt on the Capitol), hence targeting large landmarks;
               | the combination of civilian and military targets was to
               | signify that they held the two to he equivalent. Plans
               | were actually presented to attack other targets that
               | would lead to more casualties, notably a nuclear power
               | plant.
               | 
               | The other goal was to incite a religious conflict from
               | the Muslim world against the US, and therefore probably
               | from the US against as many Muslim countries as possible.
               | 
               | So the primary goal really wasn't to kill as many random
               | people as possible (though of course that was a
               | consideration), it was actually to target the tallest
               | buildings possible as well as the most important
               | government institutions.
               | 
               | Unfortunately, it really did move the world in the
               | direction they wanted. Despite being extremely evil, they
               | actually were remarkably successful at causing the social
               | and geopolitical changes they wanted given the resources
               | they had, and that caused yet more damage we shouldn't
               | ignore. It also bears remembering (especially today) that
               | terrorists often and unfortunately aren't as dumb as we
               | think, and we underestimate them and simplify their
               | motives to our peril.
        
         | matrix2003 wrote:
         | We already have some pretty horrific and documented/accessible
         | bioweapons.
         | 
         | This gets into the philosophy of restricting access to
         | knowledge. The conclusion I keep arriving at is that we're
         | lucky that there don't appear to be many Timothy McVeighs
         | walking around. I don't think there is a practical defense from
         | people like that.
        
         | d_silin wrote:
         | ...as difficult as discovering new medicines, you mean?
         | 
         | Chemistry and molecular biology are fiendishly complicated
         | fields, far more complex and less predictable than what general
         | (and most of the non-biochem STEM majors) imagine them to be.
         | 
         | How do I know? I thought of one brilliant startup idea that
         | would solve so many of the world's problems if only we used
         | computers to simulate biological systems.
         | 
         | Result: https://xkcd.com/1831/
         | 
         | Reference materials:
         | 
         | https://www.amazon.ca/Molecular-Biology-Cell-Loose-Version/d...
         | 
         | I strongly recommend to treat it as introductory-level text on
         | the same level as "K&R - C Programming Language". Yes, all 1464
         | pages of it.
         | 
         | https://www.amazon.ca/Fundamentals-Systems-Biology-Synthetic...
         | 
         | On the same level as above text, but with more math.
         | 
         | https://www.amazon.com/Introduction-Computational-Chemistry-...
         | 
         | That or any other book on computational chemistry will give you
         | an understanding why it is difficult to design anything of
         | value in biological systems. ML can only help so much.
         | 
         | Also check out this page for entire field scope:
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omics
        
           | dekhn wrote:
           | MBoC is more like Knuth's textbooks. It's a towering monument
           | to the achievements of humanity over the past 150 years
           | (molecular biology proper is less than 100 years old). As
           | well as being highly accessible (readable).
           | 
           | It's done in an interesting style, with lots of direct
           | references to current literature. I was surprised to see a
           | recent edition on IA: https://archive.org/details/alberts-
           | molecular-biology-of-the...
        
           | glowingvoices wrote:
           | Thank you for the textbooks! I've started studying Molecular
           | Biology of the Cell to prepare for undergrad, but this is the
           | first time I've heard about the others.
           | 
           | Are there any other books you would recommend?
        
             | d_silin wrote:
             | Search for "computational biology" on Amazon, but I'd say
             | go first to online courses if you have time and commitment,
             | like:
             | 
             | https://www.coursera.org/specializations/bioinformatics
             | 
             | https://www.coursera.org/specializations/systems-biology
             | 
             | Also, checkout out
             | 
             | https://www.coursera.org/courses?query=computational%20biol
             | o...
             | 
             | Then you will have a better understanding of the subject
             | area and the literature to search.
        
               | glowingvoices wrote:
               | I'm still in high school, so I don't think I'll have time
               | to fit the courses into my schedule. I'll definitely look
               | for the books though! Thanks.
        
         | m00x wrote:
         | No, it's a very small piece for what you'd need to make
         | bioweapons.
        
         | echelon wrote:
         | The science to restrict is molecular biology (bacteria) or
         | virology, not applied mathematics (AI). These folks can
         | _already do_ some wild things with the materials they have on
         | hand and don 't need fancy AI to help them.
         | 
         | Structure prediction is just one small slice of all of the
         | things you'd need to do. Choosing a vector, culturing it,
         | splicing it into an appropriate location for regulation, making
         | sure it's compatible with the environment, making sure your
         | payload is conserved, study the mechanism of infection and make
         | sure all of the steps are unimpeded, make sure it works with
         | all of the host and vector kinetics, study the pathology, study
         | the epidemiology. And that's just for starters.
         | 
         | This would require a team and an enormous amount of resources.
         | People motivated enough to do this can already do it and don't
         | need the AI piece.
        
         | peterldowns wrote:
         | If you're implying that the answer is "yes this is too
         | dangerous", could you possibly give a few examples of
         | technological developments that _aren 't_ "very dangerous to
         | release publicly" by the same standard?
         | 
         | For instance, would any of the following technologies be
         | acceptably "safe"?
         | 
         | - physical locks (makes it possible to keep work secret or
         | inaccessible to the government)
         | 
         | - solar power (power is suddenly much cheaper, means bad guys
         | can do more with less money)
         | 
         | - general workload computers (run arbitrary code, including bad
         | things)
         | 
         | - printing press (ideology spreads much more quickly, erodes
         | elite hold over culture)
         | 
         | - bosch-haber process (necessary for creating ammunition
         | necessary to fight the world wars)
        
           | mmmore wrote:
           | You left out the most relevant comparison:
           | 
           | - nuclear fission, which provides an abundant source of
           | environmentally friendly energy, but allows people to make
           | bombs capable of wiping out whole cities at once (and
           | potentially causing nuclear winter)
           | 
           | But even in that case, I believe that it's a good thing that
           | we have access to nuclear power, and I certainly want us to
           | use more nuclear power. At the same time, I'm very glad that
           | a bomb is hard enough to make that ISIS couldn't do it, let
           | alone any number of lone wolf terrorists. So I think I would
           | apply the same logic to biotechnology; speeding up medical
           | progress seems extremely valuable and I'm excited about how
           | AF and other AI systems can help with this, but we should
           | mitigate the ability for bad actors to use the same tools for
           | evil.
           | 
           | An aspect that's unique about biotechnology that's different
           | in comparison to the examples you gave is that most of those
           | technologies help good and bad people approximately equally,
           | and since there's many more reasonable than crazy people
           | they're not super dangerous.
           | 
           | There's a concern that technologies that make bioengineering
           | easier could make it easier to produce and proliferated novel
           | pathogens, much more so than they make it easier to prevent
           | pandemics; in other words, it favors "offense" more than
           | "defense". The only one example you listed that has a similar
           | dynamic in my mind is the bosch-haber process, but that has
           | large positive downstream effects separate from its use for
           | ammunition. Again, this is not to say we should stop medical
           | progress, but that we should act to mitigate the dangers, and
           | keep this concept in mind as the technology progresses.
           | 
           | That said, I'm not certain how much the current tools are
           | dangerous in this way. My understanding is that there is
           | lower hanging fruit in mitigating these issues right now; for
           | example, better controls at labs studying viruses, and better
           | vetting of people who order pathogens online.
        
           | dosinga wrote:
           | The printing press indeed led to religious wars in Europe.
           | The Ottomans banned it and avoided that fate. And the
           | progress associated with it.
        
         | dekhn wrote:
         | Nobody has really been able to make a convincing argument
         | whether these sorts of tools haven't lead to large-scale
         | terrorism through bioweapons because the underlying problem is
         | hard (for a sufficiently motivated adversary), or that
         | terrorists don't have the resources/knowledges/skill, and as
         | far as we can tell, the sufficiently motivated adversaries who
         | have tried either failed, succeeded secretly, or were convinced
         | to walk back from the brink due to the potential consequences.
         | 
         | In short there are other ways to negatively affect large
         | numbers of people that are easier, and presumably those avenues
         | are being explored first. But we don't know what we don't know.
        
         | crackalamoo wrote:
         | Not a solution, but maybe if a bad actor tried to create a
         | bioweapon, a trusted organization could use this technology as
         | an antidote. Unfortunately this still leaves the possibility of
         | some kind of insidious, undetectable bioweapon.
        
         | cowsandmilk wrote:
         | I think you overestimate the difficulty of discovering
         | bioweapons. There is a reason toxicology is the dead end for
         | tons of drug molecules. It is very easy already to design
         | molecules that will kill someone.
        
           | whymauri wrote:
           | As someone who worked in molecular ADMET, this x1000.
        
           | zan2434 wrote:
           | This actually makes a lot of sense! Sounds like finding
           | dangerous chemicals is easy and is not the actual limitation
           | at all.
        
           | emporas wrote:
           | Even the word bioweapon is not accurate to describe a deadly
           | (or harmful) biological agent. A weapon usually means that
           | there is a source of deadly force, and a target. The source
           | doesn't want to be hit by the same weapon it uses to hit
           | others.
           | 
           | This is vastly difficult to achieve using biology. Any
           | organism on the planet has it's own agency, and it will hit
           | anything to reproduce and eat. In addition this is not
           | limited to toxicology and releasing toxins, because the agent
           | can just eat tissue.
           | 
           | For example phosphorus has been used in chemical warfare, but
           | even that cannot be described 100% as a weapon. The
           | phosphorus gas can hit people who released it the same as
           | everyone else, it just depends on the wind.
           | 
           | Right now, on everyone palms, there are thousands of
           | organisms which create electricity, eat wood and kill
           | animals. Given that the palms are washed, that number is
           | reduced to some thousand different species. If the palms are
           | not washed the last 24 hours, that number shoots up to
           | hundred thousand different species, even millions.
           | 
           | I do not see any difficulty for someone to enhance a harmful
           | agent and make it deadly, using just regular computation and
           | not even A.I.. However the person who facilitated this, will
           | be a target too.
        
         | f6v wrote:
         | There's still a long way from in-silico prediction to wet-lab
         | validation. You need a full-blown molecular biology lab to test
         | any of these.
         | 
         | Then again, you can just release existing dangerous pathogens.
         | Like, poison a water with something deadly. So you don't need a
         | new one if you're a terrorist.
        
       | mmmore wrote:
       | Does the use of "foundation" and "multi-modal" for describing
       | this model mean anything, or are those just used as buzzwords?
       | Funnily enough, the only place those terms appear in the paper is
       | in the abstract.
       | 
       | Also the paper says they basically copied the methods used for
       | AlphaFold, but then included the ability to input language
       | embeddings, and input some other side constraints that I don't
       | have the biology knowledge to understand. They don't show any
       | data that indicate how much these changes improve performance.
       | They show a very modest improvement over AF3 (small enough that I
       | would think it could be achieve through randomness/small
       | variations in the training parameters). So I don't think this is
       | very revolutionary, but I suppose it replicates AF3.
        
         | dekhn wrote:
         | If by "multi-modal", you mean "it takes several different
         | datatypes as input or output", then yes, it's multi-modal. See
         | Figure 1 in the Tech Report.
        
         | alexk101 wrote:
         | Foundational maybe isn't the best label for this kind of model.
         | My understanding of foundational models is that they are made
         | to be a baseline which can be further fine tuned for specific
         | downstream tasks. This seems more like an already fine tuned
         | model, but I haven't looked carefully enough at the methodology
         | to say.
        
           | lainga wrote:
           | Would you then call it a buzzword, or is there some gentler
           | excluded-middle interpretation of that word's application to
           | the project?
        
             | brookst wrote:
             | It's about like referring to a famous person's red carpet
             | attire as "off the shelf [designer name]". It downplays the
             | effort that went into it more than anything.
        
             | IanCal wrote:
             | I don't think it's a particular buzzword here. They claim
             | it's useful across a range of tasks, and that's the key
             | part imo.
             | 
             | Now, "predictions for parts of drug discovery" isn't the
             | widest range, so perhaps you need to consider "foundation"
             | as somewhat context dependent, but I don't think it's a
             | wild claim. Neither "foundation" nor "fine tuned" are
             | really _better_ than each other, but those are probably the
             | two ends of a spectrum here.
             | 
             | My get-out clause here is that someone with a better
             | understanding of the field may say these are actually
             | extremely narrowly trained things, and the tests are
             | equivalent to multiple different coding problem challenges
             | rather than programming/translation/poetry/etc.
        
         | ashvardanian wrote:
         | There is a pretty noticeable improvement for antibody-antigen
         | interactions - looks like double-digit percents. Check out
         | figure 4 here:
         | https://chaiassets.com/chai-1/paper/technical_report_v1.pdf
        
           | mmmore wrote:
           | Figure 4 is comparing the model with itself, unless I'm
           | misunderstanding it. The takeaway seems to be the model
           | performs better if you give it extra "constraints", i.e.
           | extra info already known about the protein.
           | 
           | The table with a comparison to alpha fold gives a less than
           | one percentage point improvement.
        
       | marviel wrote:
       | > We are releasing Chai-1 via a web interface for free, including
       | for commercial applications such as drug discovery. We are also
       | releasing the code for Chai-1 for non-commercial use as a
       | software library. We believe that when we build in partnership
       | with the research and industrial communities, the entire
       | ecosystem benefits.
        
       | dgfitz wrote:
       | Is there some sort of betting line I can make money off with all
       | this? "-150 a new model isn't released in the next month claiming
       | it is currently the best at something" would let me retire years
       | early.
       | 
       | If there is another line that said "+500 thus model will be
       | forgotten and useless in 6 months" could take my retirement from
       | years to months.
        
         | anitil wrote:
         | I believe Manifold does this sort of thing, though I've never
         | used it myself.
        
           | tfehring wrote:
           | Manifold [0] has markets on this sort of thing, but it
           | primarily uses fake money. (They're working on a real-money
           | "sweepstakes" thing, which I'm not super familiar with.) If
           | you're outside the US and looking for a real-money market,
           | Polymarket [1] is probably your best bet. In the US, real-
           | money prediction market contracts are regulated by the CFTC
           | in the US, so availability of contracts is pretty limited;
           | Kalshi [2] would be the most likely option, but I doubt they
           | have anything on this topic.
           | 
           | [0] https://manifold.markets
           | 
           | [1] https://polymarket.com
           | 
           | [2] https://kalshi.com/
        
             | pants2 wrote:
             | Your best bet in the US is to use Polymarket with a VPN
        
         | thefourthchime wrote:
         | -180 it's a wrapper around alphafold with some pre prompt.
        
         | talldayo wrote:
         | > "-150 a new model isn't released in the next month claiming
         | it is currently the best at something" would let me retire
         | years early.
         | 
         | An optimist and their seed funding are easily parted.
        
       | xianshou wrote:
       | In light of last week's fiasco with Reflection
       | (https://venturebeat.com/ai/new-open-source-ai-leader-
       | reflect...), I hope the community has a newfound enthusiasm for
       | independent testing!
       | 
       | This is extremely exciting news if true, so I'm eager to have it
       | either confirmed or questioned. The one thing I hope we won't be
       | doing is accepting SOTA evals from open-sourced models at face
       | value.
        
         | deisteve wrote:
         | I don't know how people like Matt Schumer can attempt what
         | looks like fraud and deception being chalked off as a giant
         | oopsies (which isn't really convincing) and not face any
         | consequences.
         | 
         | For rest of us, this is a privilege that we don't have. We
         | can't deceive, defraud our investors because it has real
         | consequences....but not for people like Matt Schumer, why is
         | that?
        
           | Loughla wrote:
           | Having mountains of money, in the US, is equated to being
           | smart and better than. This means that failures, unless they
           | purposefully exploit other better thans, are always
           | forgiveable. Even when they're mildly intentional.
        
             | mupuff1234 wrote:
             | Pretty sure it's not a US only thing.
        
           | mecsred wrote:
           | Just imagine the legal system as a money duel. If you have
           | little money you can be crushed at no cost. Trying to fight
           | someone with big money, even if you're likely to win, will
           | take a lot of time and money. Unless the fraud was black and
           | white or you're in for the long haul it's easier just to lick
           | the wounds.
        
             | parentheses wrote:
             | Does that logic apply to the State - usu plaintiff?
             | 
             | Doesn't seem so since they have seemingly endless capital
             | but have limits in what they can bring to bear. You tell
             | me...
        
               | nayroclade wrote:
               | "The state" is not a monolith. Anti-fraud enforcement is
               | handled by agencies with limited budgets and resources.
               | Often they are deliberately underfunded and understaffed
               | precisely so they cannot cause too much damage and
               | embarrassment by going after really big targets.
        
         | wslh wrote:
         | Theranos everywhere? Except you can't afford to mess up when it
         | comes to health.
        
           | f6v wrote:
           | Oh, pharma messes up all the time.
           | 
           | But it's an interesting question. You can't be too risk-
           | averse because there're thousands of patients dying horrible
           | deaths every single day. There's simply a need for bold
           | approaches in many areas of medicine.
        
             | wslh wrote:
             | I'd like to add a perspective that might not resonate with
             | everyone, based on the famous quote: "Any sufficiently
             | advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." I
             | sometimes adapt this to say: "Any sufficiently advanced
             | technology is indistinguishable from a scam."
        
       | pama wrote:
       | The title in HN is inaccurate. Having a 1% higher score on one
       | metric is not beating a previously published model. This is a
       | replicate, which is fine enough.
        
         | drob wrote:
         | Fwiw, the authors never actually claimed this. From their
         | technical report [0]:
         | 
         | > Chai-1 achieves a ligand RMSD success rate of 77%, which is
         | comparable to the 76% achieved by AlphaFold3
         | 
         | [0] https://chaiassets.com/chai-1/paper/technical_report_v1.pdf
        
         | dang wrote:
         | Ah yes - thanks! We've changed it to the article title now.
         | 
         | Submitters: " _Please submit the original source. If a post
         | reports on something found on another site, submit the latter._
         | " - https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
         | 
         | (Submitted title was "Chai-1 Defeats AlphaFold 3")
        
       | bbstats wrote:
       | the error bars are like 5-10x the size of that 'defeat'
        
       | trott wrote:
       | I'm the author of AutoDock Vina (the most cited docking program,
       | and the "runner-up" in the AlphaFold 3 paper)
       | 
       | Docking software is used to scan millions and billions of drug-
       | like molecules looking for _new_ potential binders. So it needs
       | to be able to generalize, rather than just memorize.
       | 
       | But the evaluation approach used here and in the original paper
       | (1) does not test how well the software will perform on _novel_
       | molecules, because the test set is related to the training set.
       | 
       | If you understand the basics of ML and physics, you may be
       | interested in my detailed critique here:
       | https://olegtrott.substack.com/p/are-alphafolds-new-results-...
       | 
       | I'm glad that Chai-1 has been released though, as this will
       | probably help people evaluate the method better.
       | 
       | (1) It looks like they are a bit different, as this paper allows
       | 40% sequence identity. It's still high. I believe that sequences
       | with 40% identity tend to have the same shapes, especially in the
       | binding site, where it matters.
        
         | uptownfunk wrote:
         | Thanks for your work and also for your comments of AF3 and
         | Chai-1. It sounds like you are implying there are potentially
         | gross and subtle types of data set leakages taking place
         | between the train and test which are resulting in what seem to
         | be inflated performance metrics? These are pretty serious
         | issues if so. Also I would agree with previous authors that
         | marginal Improvement over sota is proof more that they have
         | recreated something than really made significant new progress.
         | But this has been an issue with LLMs for sometime now. But it
         | sounds like they have some bright engineers from good brand
         | name companies who are coming together with some VC backing of
         | the team to try and do something in this space. I do appreciate
         | that the weights are open. I would like to learn more about
         | their future direction and their training methods
        
       | mandoline wrote:
       | This is an exciting result - but knowledge of protein structure
       | is usually not a limiting factor in drug discovery:
       | https://www.chemistryworld.com/opinion/why-alphafold-wont-re...
       | 
       | Would be interesting to try to estimate the impact of results
       | like these across the drug development pipeline.
       | 
       | E.g. N% improvement on our most predictive benchmarks X, Y, Z
       | could impact clinical success by M% +- E% (where E would likely
       | be quite large).
        
       | LarsDu88 wrote:
       | I was just working on a small protein diffusion model and felt
       | bad when I started copying and pasting quaternion functions from
       | pytorch3d to avoid dependency hell.
       | 
       | Lo and behold I see Chai did the same shit in their repo. Lol
        
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