[HN Gopher] Why I Wrote Data Science for Crime Analysis with Pyt...
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       Why I Wrote Data Science for Crime Analysis with Python (2023)
        
       Author : apwheele
       Score  : 85 points
       Date   : 2024-09-09 14:36 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (crimede-coder.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (crimede-coder.com)
        
       | chirau wrote:
       | I am looking at the table of contents and it looks like the
       | topics are just the same ones as any other Python for data
       | analysis book. Is there anything specific in the book that is
       | specific to "Crime Analysis" or it is just another data analysis
       | task?
        
         | apwheele wrote:
         | The examples are crime analysis focused, you can see the final
         | chapter end-project example here,
         | https://github.com/apwheele/CrimeBook. But yes the fundamentals
         | are the same for most any "data analyst job".
         | 
         | If you look at the preface section "What this book is not", I
         | discuss that point:
         | 
         | > This book is aimed to get you started writing code and
         | applying it to real tasks crime analysts need to conduct. I use
         | realistic examples that a crime analyst may be interested in
         | conducting, such as sending automated emails, making year-to-
         | date tables, and creating line charts. But I do not discuss in
         | detail things like the Poisson distribution for analyzing crime
         | rates or why hotspot analyses is important.
        
       | qwertox wrote:
       | "Plug-in could not be loaded". Reminded me of the good old Java
       | Applets / ActiveX days.
       | 
       | `<object data="/images/DS_PythonCrimeAnalysis_EarlyRelease.pdf"
       | width="100%" height="500"></object>` is causing that problem.
       | 
       | Here's the link: https://crimede-
       | coder.com/images/DS_PythonCrimeAnalysis_Earl...
        
         | lelandfe wrote:
         | PDF viewer has excellent support on desktop, but is ~absent
         | from mobile https://caniuse.com/pdf-viewer
        
       | ideashower wrote:
       | > One critique of predictive analytics is that machine learning
       | is racist. This is misleading - predictive policing is a method
       | to identify areas or people that can benefit the greatest from
       | specific interventions.
       | 
       | This is just complete misrepresentation.
       | 
       | Characterizing machine learning itself as inherently racist is an
       | oversimplification. Predictive tools often use biased data from
       | the past, which can make their predictions unfair. The bias in
       | predictive policing stems from historical over-policing in Black
       | neighborhoods compared to white ones, for one example. Using
       | these biased predictions leads police to focus on the same areas
       | and people repeatedly, creating a self-fulfilling cycle. This
       | happens despite evidence showing that people across different
       | communities commit similar minor crimes at comparable rates. The
       | system essentially reinforces existing patterns of unequal law
       | enforcement rather than reflecting true crime distribution.
       | 
       | I see you've written lots of papers on predicting crime. Have you
       | ever gone back and looked at your predictions vs actual reports?
       | 
       | I wish for once people would try to turn this inward on the
       | system rather than support armed agents of the law to further
       | reinforce harmful systems. You could design a system to see how a
       | particular type of outcome from a law enforcement officer's
       | intervention results in the downstream effects of that
       | intervention. Does that person ever re-offend? Does that person
       | instead never touch the legal system again? If they don't re-
       | offend, what is the LEO doing that we could encourage more
       | officers to practice?
       | 
       | There is research to support the idea that less punitive
       | intervention means less recycling through the CJ system. You
       | could look at prosecutors on a single team, and look at
       | diversionary disposition outcomes, with downstream criminal
       | justice data from CJIS systems, to see what outcomes individual
       | prosecutors are doing and how they're actually meaningfully
       | impacting people's lifelihoods, likelihood to reoffend and
       | community safety. Instead, we just continue to reinforce cycles
       | of harm. It's shameful.
        
         | kspacewalk2 wrote:
         | >This happens despite evidence showing that people across
         | different communities commit similar minor crimes at comparable
         | rates.
         | 
         | This stands out as a giant red [citation needed] to me. Do you
         | have any good references for me to read up on, that back this
         | claim with actual crime stats?
        
         | tptacek wrote:
         | A common complaint from Black households in Black neighborhoods
         | is that they're under-policed.
        
       | n8cpdx wrote:
       | Another book using shrink wrapped software:
       | 
       | https://www.esri.com/en-us/esri-press/browse/modern-policing...
       | 
       | And a software-agnostic book focused on the theory:
       | 
       | https://www.esri.com/en-us/esri-press/browse/understanding-c...
       | 
       | Disclosure: I work at Esri but not on desktop software or the
       | press teams, and I bought both books on Amazon with my own money.
        
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       (page generated 2024-09-09 23:00 UTC)